it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." the wall street back open for business after the thanksgiving break looking to cap off a mostly positive week for stocks overall. it is also retail's very big day. black friday 2023 expected to be the busiest in-store traffic day of the year. a new key point casting a cloud. and not just strip malls, also the skies.

we check in on the read of the thanksgiving weekend. and wild week for energy prices as we weigh what's next for opec. and later on, another box-office bust for disney. it is friday, november 24th, 2023, black friday, and you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on this black friday morning. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. let's kickoff with the averages looking to end on a high note. you see the dow jones industrial average is implied higher 59 points. s&p up 3 and the nasdaq up 3 or 4 points. in the bonds market, yields are

ticking higher. the 4.474% is the last trade there for the ten-year note. and in energy, it is a tailwind for the consumer. west texas intermediate is $76.64. .20% gain for the ice brent at $81.54. it is officially black friday. traditionally the busiest shopping day of the year and kickoff to the retailers critical holiday shopping season. courtney reagan is in west nyack, new york, which is not far from where i'm standing now and what is to be a busy parking lot right now and later on today. courtney. >> reporter: good morning, dom. it is good to see you dark and early from the parking lot. you are right. this is expected to be a busy

day. the mall opens two hours from now. you know consumers have a head start on the shopping. average order volume was up 76% yesterday on thanksgiving compared to an average thursday in october peaking around 10:00 p.m. shipbob which fills orders for macy's and saks and other retailers show the long lines and crowd rushing into stores is probably a thing of the past. most shoppers now have access to the same deals online and many of the same deals were offered early and well ahead of thanksgiving and black friday. it is the big door busters that often you see the shoppers go for on thanksgiving thursday. they go home and rest and come back out to the mall after breakfast. still while the cadence of black

friday changed with the deals offered online and early, but today is still expected to be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year according to foot traffic tracker. adobe predicts online sales will grow 5.7% over last year to $9.6 billion the. we have to consider what is going on with inflation. today is supposed to be the best five-day stretch to nab a tv. 72% of u.s. consumers, more than 130 million folks, are expected to shop today. that is up from 69% last year according to the national retail federation. between thanksgiving and cyber monday, the five-day stretch, the international council of shopping centers are expected to see shoppers fork out $130

billion which is up 4% from last year. not bad, dom. get your list ready. >> everyone talks about the nominal terms and inflation is factoring in how much people are spending. courtney, today may be officially black friday, but it feels like we have seen black friday deals for weeks at this point. is there going to be the so-called draw forward effect where people spent the money that they were going to spend and maybe we could see a bit of a lackluster move for the rest of holiday season? >> reporter: that is a huge question. we heard retailers report the last 10 to 12 days and we he as asked them how the early sales were in the quarter? walmart's chief financial officer did tell me we are seeing consumers wait and buy during the promotional time when they offer business sales and

discounts. seeing activity drop off before and after which suggests to me that everybody knows you will get good deals on black friday and cyber monday and even if some are offered early and pulled forward, i think it is still an important time for retailers. consumers are aware and being careful than normal times or normal holiday times. i think it will be helpful. >> courtney, you and i are big stats people. you threw out the numbers from the national retail federation and icsc. there is another consumer stat. 1 in 4 americans this black friday say they are still paying off holiday debt from last year. that's according to wallethub. put that in context for us. it speaks to the stretched u.s. consumer right now. >> reporter: it does. dom, that is the interesting thing about the holiday time.

no matter what many families' financial situation is currently, they try very hard to give their families a nice christmas. it is a time where they do overspend. we know interest rates are considerably higher today than over the last several years. it is harder, i imagine, to payoff debts and interest rates. those bills only get higher over time. it is unfortunately not surprising to me, but it is important for so many people this time of year regardless of their financial situation. >> let's see how it is in west nyack. thank you, courtney. we will see you tlhroughout the day. the markets are set to pick up again today after the

holiday. we will see if the rally will continue or not according to the note from quincy crosby at lpl financial. market consolidation is normal at this point if the consolidation leads to a selloff and the s&p 500 falls below the norm. let's bring in gina sanchez. gina, there is almost a bullish narrative this time of year because it is a quote/unquote strong time for the markets. are there times that the ma markets' run means this is time for a pause? >> it suggest there is are price risks in the market. the biggest element i'm focused on is the one you described. credit card balances are almost

back to normal levels. the carrying costs of those balances is significantly higher. it is definitely having an impact on spending. you are hearing that in earnings reports that ceos are tempering expectations going into 2024. i think a lot of that and the question is will it be a mild slowdown. a lot of what with we heard is calls for recession, but people continue to spend because wages continue to rise. that was a good thing. it did blunt the effect of the rising interest rates. which th i think we are starting to get to the end of that. >> if that is the case, when could we see some of the real impact from the market perspective which tends to lead the economy and price these

things in? is it in the first quarter of men next year? what is the timeframe of when it plays out? >> i think we will see it in the first quarter of next year as we digest the holiday season earnings. this is a bellwether for how weak the consumer is here. >> if that's the case, that all plays into the fed narrative about how interest rate policy is going to be conducted in the coming months. do you feel interest rates right now are going to be paused for a significant amount of time or do you think there is still that inflationary threat despite we are seeing lower oil prices and perhaps a cooling off in food in the market and what not? >> i think that will feed into the fed narrative. if you do see a weaker consumer, that is one of the pieces are ss

and unemployment is moving in the direction that should be quelling the fed concern around demand and whether or not they can get a hold of demand. i think with the weakness in the labor market starting to finally show through and the labor market is a tough one because we have so many sort of 55 plus cohort workers that just left the market and didn't come back. we have a shortage of people in the labor market. that continues to cloud that narrative. i think if we have a weak consumer, i think that could be enough to keep the fed paused for the time being. that would be bullish for the market generally. >> gina sanchez, thank you very much. >> thank you. a lot more here to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors need

to know today. first, getting set for the busiest travel day of the year. we check in with the points guy. we are also just getting started on retail. we take a look at the brands and stores best positioned for the shopping season. and later on, when the forecast becomes reality. what nvidia is tellingts i chinese customers this morning. we have more just ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." futures mixed with the dow implied higher by four. let's now see how europe is shaping up as the trading day is in the going. we have silvia amaro with the latest. happy thanksgiving from us here in the u.s. >> happy thanksgiving, dom. let's show you the european equities. they have had a positive session so far. let's show you the spread at this stage. here in the uk, the ftse 100 is trading lower by about .10%. this is actually despite positive data with pmi which was released yesterday. over in the rest of europe, the dax in germany is trading

higher. similar moves in farance. when it comes to the broader market, we are tracking comments from the ecb which released minutes suggesting that the central bank has not ruled out the possibility of further rate hikes. that is one for us to monitor here as well. i want to show you the corporate moves we are tracking this morning. particularly when it comes to banks. barclays is reportedly working on a $1.25 billion cost saving plan which could include 2,000 job cuts. that is according to reuters which says managers are reviewing plans to increase profitability primarily by making cuts within barclays execution services. the division tasked with improving efficiency. i want to show you the equity session in asia wrapped up. the fact we had lower volumes in the u.s. also had an impact over

in asia where we saw muted levels of trading. i want to mention that the nikkei 225 closed higher by 0.5%. dom, all eyes on the very important inflation print which was higher than expected. >> silvia, thank you very much. have a nice weekend. we all got to the thanksgiving destinations safe and sound hopefully, with few headaches and indigestion. in a few days, we will make the trek home braving the airports again. the tsa expects to screen 30 million passengers between november 27th to the 30th. sunday is expected to be the busiest air travel day in u.s. history.

let's talk more about the kickoff of the travel season and big deals available for christmas and new year's. cliff henderson is the points guy. cliff, is this the holiday season that could be in store for deals for travelers or are we expected to pay more and more for airline tickets and train fares? >> actually, prices have come down this year versus last year, slightly. nothing extraordinary. i think now the airlines are fully staffed and all of the planes are back up in the air means there are more seats available. prices have stabilizedaspects. i'll update all of our black friday deals at the points guy. i'm seeing interesting deals. air canada flights. delta vacations. jetblue vacations. there are deals to be had out there. remember, generally airlines put

things on sale sporadically. >> clifch clint, i see some thi popping up in my emails. are there trips on sale per the research you have hinted at doing so far? >> my biggest tip for folks is if you have been putting off a trip to hawaii, they need the tourist dollars. business is down substantially for all of hawaii, not just maui. i just did reporting. prices are low for hawaii. we are seeing good flight deals to hawaii. if you have been putting off a trip, now is the time. we had pent-up demand as we eased out of the pandemic. right now, things are on sale.

at least until it gets to high season in january. if you have a last-minute trip and looking to book, hawaii may be a good option. >> if you look at how things are shaping up with the spectrum of income that people are looking at right now, are we finding deals across the entire spectrum from the value side of things through luxury? certain places in particular with the higher-end area or lower-end area where you are looking? >> the main carriers say traffic is great and number of passengers are great. low-cost carriers have been struggling a bit more. we see more sales from the low end. we see high-end sales. the company selling $2,000 round trip trips to paris.

we will see more discounting as we go into the new year. the days of rapid price increases are behind us for now. it is interesting to watch what happens. so far, the only softening is the low-cost carrier. >> clint, what is the biggest trend you will watch for in 2024? >> i think pricing is really interesting. we're really keeping a close eye on the airlines to see how they perform. next year, now all of the pent-up demand is out of the system, i'm curious about europe. it has been expensive. i'm seeing evidence that demand may be softening for europe. europe may be on sale in the coming year. i'll watch that closely. >> perhaps lower prices for travelers and consumers. clint henderson, thank you very much. >> thank you. ahead on "worldwide exchange," some major tech i issues forcing peloton to fall short of what it was hoping to be in hopes of two guinness

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antitrust approval for the $1.4 billion takeover of the vacuum maker. the eu which is set to decide in mid-february declined to comment on the report. and a four-day truce with israel and hamas going into effect this morning setting the stage for the exchange of dozens of hostages and promise of relief of 2 million people in gaza who have been going through two weeks of bombardment. we have our sky news reporter on the ground with more on the story. >> reporter: the cease-fire came into effect at 7:00 this morning. for the most part, it has held although we are in the early hours. there was a report of rocket fire at 7:15, but beyond that, the peace seems to have held in gaza. we look to this afternoon at

4:00 in israel where hostages will be released. 13 which is believed to be women and children where they will pass through egypt and then be handed over to the international red cross. this is a chance to get international aid into gaza. we believe 200 trucks of aid will enter gaza every day, including fuel, which is scare in the strip in the seven weeks of fighting. it isnecessary to power hospitals and sewage works and water pumping stations and the like. for now, the signs are good. i have to say people in israel and in gaza are holding this breath. >> thank you very much for the report. let's check on the other top stories as well outside of the world of money and business with nbc's jessica layton in new

york. >> good morning, dom. kchaos in the streets of irelan. rioters set a bus on fire. outrage after a man used a knife to attack five people, including three children. a 5-year-old girl was seriously hurt. far-right protesters clashed with police after the stabbing. authorities have not ruled out a motive in the stabbing attack. we are getting new information about the deadly car crash at border with canada and new york. there is no link of terrorism. they turned the investigation over to local authorities. two people in the car did die in the crash that was near niagara falls. what a nightcap in the nfl. san francisco barrelled past the seahawks and never looked back. they had christian mccafccaffre

with two touchdowns. dom, you watched that game? >> i'm a born and raised northern california bay area guy. that is a huge niners fan. i'm worse for the wear today, but i'm happy the 49ers have control of the nfc west. jessica, thank you. strayight ahead in the show the growing rift for opec countries. we have francisco blanch up next when we return.

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it is 5:30 a.m. in the new york area. there is still more ahead on "worldwide exchange." here's what's on deck. wall street is set to get back to business after the thanksgiving holiday. ready, set, shop. retailers rolling out the black friday. reading the opec tea leaves asp speculation mounts with the delay and what it means for output agreement. it is friday, black friday, november 24th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc.

welcome back to the show. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. we check on the u.s. equity futures for the half hour. they are more mixed. s&p is up two points. the dow up 79 points. nasdaq down 11 points implied. let'sing dig into the marke action. we are showing you a three-year chart because the vicinity here is where we saw record highs for the market overall. with the moves over the last couple weeks, the dow and s&p are here at 4% to 5% from the record highs we saw. the nasdaq composite is still roughly 11% below it's high levels. we will keep an eye on those moves. as for where the action has been

is no surprise. some of the magnificent seven sectors like technology and communication services and consumer discretionary are the best in the s&p 500. interest rates are a big part of the story as well. we often talked about the idea that the benchmark ten-year note hit a cycle high of 5.02% back on october 23rd. some people like to like at dollar amounts. this is the ishares etf tlt ticker. up to where we are right now, this particular etf has gained 10% in value. that move we have seen from 5.02% in the yield on the ten-year bond has translated into a roughly 10% gain in the treasury bond prices for the etf. it is something to keep a close eye on as well. turning to the plblack frid

shopping situation. retailers are rolling out the discounts for consumers on the busiest shopping day of the year. our courtney reagan is in west nyack. how is the activity starting to trend? >> reporter: we are starting to see cars pull in. the mall is not open yet. we know shoppers are planning spending and searching online. so far, the top search for retailers in order are target, wal walmart, home depot and kohl's. these are searches with target up 111% from last black friday. walmart is up 300% from last black friday. home depot is up 113%. that may not be a retailer you think of, but the busiest day online here on the black friday.

shipbob says thanksgiving online shopping peaked between 10:00 p.m. and 11:00 p.m. eastern time with the average order volume up 76% from the average thursday in october. shipbob ships from macy's and dick's sporting goods and lowe's and other sites. by 2:00 p.m. on thanksgiving day, online sales were up 2% according to salesforce. this is from last thanksgiving. salesforce expected that peak shopping would happen later as shipbob reported. that is not in the full day. the cadence of black friday has changed with deals offered on line and even in advance of black friday in store, too. today is expected to be the biggest in-store shopping day of the year. i don't expect the crowd rushing into the doors. this is according to foot traffic tracker. biggest day of the year, but not

as big as it once was in the store. adobe expects sales to grow 5.7% today which is $9.6 billion. if you combine what is expected in-store shopping or digital shopping behavior, this is shopping in any form, 72% of consumers, 130 the mmillion ames are expected to shop today. that is up 69% p pcompared to l year. from black friday to cyber mo monday, we expect to see $130 billion. retailers are open 24/7. back to you. >> courtney with the latest on the black friday state of play. thank you. we may be just starting for

a gloomy holiday shopping season. nearly a dozen companies like tapestry and bj's and best buy and nordstrom highlighting issues with consumer spending power in their comments. of note, inflation and higher interest rates and more credit card debt. less saving and resumption of student loan repayments are leaving consumers with less cash to spend. let's talk more with jessica ra ramierez. i wonder the stats that courtney l laid out means there is a downshift in spending for the consumer or will this trend the way it has with more spending which is in tune with what people are making? >> the spend is cautious from the consumer overall. it has been more so in the

second half of the year. that will continue. we saw that during black friday. we feel that will continue in the holiday season. it is a tough environment. they are spacing out what they are buying. we saw that with promotions. it is a promotion environment. it hasn't been deep promotions. we don't have much inventory out there. the promotions have been 20% to 30%. yesterday, looking at thanksgiving, it has messages up 2%. i imagine that will stay for today. when you look at the fine print, it is up 50%. some categories that consumer is shopping. the ones that were mentioned with tvs. electronics are not higher in the category.

we will see home furniture is not strong. the categories of interest is outdoor and pubeauty. we will see the consumer come in. >> what retailers are the ones best positioned with the co consumer? >> i would say anything that is focused on outdoor. the consumer is interested in that lifestyle. trail running, running, golf, those activities. those are the things with dick's sporting goods and athletic companies. nike or hok ana and ugg. beauty with ulta. it makes you happy for yourself. i think the skin category has a lot of innovation within beauty. that also falls into wellness.

>> what is interesting about this is i spoke to a manager at a local jewelry shop which is discretionary. one of the things she pointed out is some of the best clients are not knocking the doors down to get at staff. is that playing out with the luxury consumer showing signs of conservativeness? >> it is important to talk about luxury. if you take nordstrom, they have been having trouble with that. that is the entry price point for luluxury. that consumer is splurging two or three teaimes a year. there is a lot of ways the

luxury changes business. entry level is what we need to be concerned about. that is the traded down. >> jessica, thank you very much for the state of the retail con consumer. >> thank you. >> good luck with this weekend. coming up on the show, potential bump in the road for amazon on one of the biggest shopping days of the year as european workers look to curb orders getting to customers. as we head to break, some of the top trending stories. thanks, but no thanks. the thanksgiving box office bringing in lackluster numbers with "wish" earning $8 million compared to the $200 million budget. apple's "napoleon" with slowing sales as well. and peloton is burning out in all the wrong ways. 37,000 members were blocked from

participating in the tenth annual spinning event due to technical issues. peloton was looking for the be be guinness world record. the ceo said we let you down. and the miami dolphins and new york jets are looking to go head-to-head on amazon this black friday. we have more coming up after this break. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "global briefing." the bank of japan may normalize the ultra loose policy. that is according to the co consumer inflation. the first increase in four months. consumer prices rising above the 2% target for the central bank by 19 straight months. turkey's central bank hikes sharply to 40%. that was a move by the bank to combat high inflation and falling turkish lira. and amazon set to hold demonstrations against the giant today. they are looking to upset

warehouses and items preventing to reach lockers. the workers are demanding a collective wage agreement. turning now to what has been a wild week for oil prices pulling back a bit this morning. we are still well above the lows that we hit on wednesday after opec and allies delayed the scheduled meeting set for this coming sunday to thursday, november 30th. the news raising speculation the cartel is struggling on future output levels with crude hitting highs back from september. joining me is the global head of commodity research. francisco blanche is joining me. francisco, is it possible for this to be sustained?

>> thanks, dominic. heading into next year, we foresee a meaningful increase of opec production. we are getting growth in ghana and brazil and canada and u.s. has delivered a phenomenal year. scratching 400,000 barrels a day. this is the best year for u.s. oil production for crude and liquids. america is producing and opec is facing the dilemma as demanded slows down and whether to accommodate the growth or fight another battle for market share. >> this is one of the scenarios where if opec and its partner countries are showing signs they cannot get to some kind of agreement, that oil prices could slide further. do you feel as though some of the countries that are maybe

holding out? we hear it is angola or others wanting to pump more oil out there. is this bearish for the oil prices in the coming months as well? >> i think coming into the meeting means it would never been easy to force some of the free riders in opec plus to essentially do nothing and have saudi arabia do all of the heavy lifting. saudis are producing 9 million bat barrels a day. i think that saudis are coming back to the table saying we have been supporting the market for a while. we want you to pitch in for a little bit. i think they will get to agre agreement. the fact there will be headlines the next few days sets us up for volatility for the final

decision. i still believe they will cut and support the market. we maintain a scenario on brent at $90. lower for wti. opec needs to maintain supply tight to accommodate slower demand and that surge in opec output. >> francisco, are you seeing signs that prices for crude in future delivery months are indicating any kind of a movement longer term for oil prices? is that backwardation going to foretell stable oil prices in the coming months? >> i'm glad you asked that. i think the critical thing that saudi arabia and the rest have been trying to do is make sure the market remains in backward

sd backwardation. i think it is something, dom, that means to maintain the bac backwardation means you need to be below the five-year average. that is why the cut is important. if opec let'sinventories build, the backwardation means we move to the forward rices. that is the trade if opec cannot agree and it will bring on a spot price quickly and it will be pronounced. we have seen that in the past when the group cannot agree to something. that's key to watch. what happens to inventory is what opec is all about. that is what they are trying to do. keep it discouraged.

keep the benefits at high spot prices. >> bank of america's francisco blanche. thank you. ahead on the show, the one word every investor needs to know and the pitosive signal that means a solid 2024 is on tap. we'll be right back. a lot of code. if an application needs to be modernized then you'll need time, resources... and caffeine. if this sounds daunting then use watsonx code assistant ai designed to multiply developer productivity so you can generate code quickly. let's create a more modern foundation for business, with watsonx code assistant. ibm. let's create. meet gold bond daily healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins. and... new gold bond healing sensitive. clinically shown to heal & moisturize

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "wex wrap-up." nvidia is delaying the lawunch f the a.i. chips until next year in china. and colt cz is making the stock and cash merger offer to vista outdoor offer the $2 billion sale of the sports products division to a different company. and residents in mount

vernon, kentucky after the 16-car train derailment reellead sulfur into the air. and united airlines in talks to use passengers data for ads for the in-flight entertainment system or mobile apps as well. let's get a check of the markets with the indices on pace for the fourth positive day in in a row. with me is jay woods today. jay, it is a holiday week. things are expected to be calmer. what is in store for traders and investors for the month ahead? >> the coming month is looking pretty good. we had a lot of momentum coming from our october 27th low. i think that momentum is going to continue. i think the set up is there to not only have a strong december, but to see a green january and right into the super bowl. >> what is the set up that you are talking about? the magnificent seven?

the mega cap technology names? >> it actually is a lot of those technology names. the leaders that were leading us. the gains we're seeing and most of the big stocks with the exception of microsoft, broadcom and nvidia. if i was a guest on the show and the top is in on the first day of 2022, i would have been genius. we bottomed out at the end of 2022 and we're making that back. despite how great of a year we're having, this is just beginning. you look at the nasdaq 100 and guess where we are? we're back to where we were in january of 2022. >> do we get record highs for nasdaq? >> the composite? yeah. i think the tide will lift all

boats in the first quarter of the year. we have a lot of tailwinds. we have the best six months of the year. we have the presidential cycle and strongest point is right now into the first quarter of the fourth year of the presidential cycle. the fed is pausing. the set-up is there and you look at the charts and it is amazing to see that we are just getting started. you know, we can talk about it when i give you my word of the day. >> what is the word of the day? >> it is not a yes song from 1972 or new jersey highway maneuvers, but it is roundabout. that is what we have seen. we saw it in microsoft. it got back to the 2022 highs. it paused. you get to at roundabout and you pause and you look and go in the direction you want. the direction is higher. we see the stocks with new highs. microsoft and nvidia and br

broadcom. the base is there. it has room to run. you look at the magnificent seven again. amaz amazon, google, crowd strike. j woods, thank you. "squawk box" is coming up next. the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life.

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good morning. a cease-fire began overnight in gaza and appears to be holding. we will tell you when the first set of hostages is set to be released. and a report that nvidia is dehelaying the release of the a. chip with the issues over china. and retailers have been cautious of the holiday spending

forecast. we take you live to the mall for the update of black friday shopping. it is friday, november 24th, 2024. happy thanksgiving, everybody. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman. wake up, steve. joe is off today. we are here. we will get you ready for the short session today. the stock market will close at 1:00 p.m. bond market closing at 2:00 p.m. if you look at the u.s. equities, you will see da-- tha