it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." stocks looking to keep that november rally alive with the major averages riding a four-week winning streak. the numbers are in and despite the multiple retailer warnings, shoppers came out in record numbers online for black friday. we will see how cyber monday is shaping up right now. and damage control at x as elon musk books his high-profile meeting in israel over backlash

over the anti-semitic comments. plus, keeping an eye on the openai following last week's roller coaster leadership shakeup. and later on, a disney holiday box office dud as bob iger gets set for employee town hall. it is monday, november 27th, 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for frank holland this morning. let's check on the u.s. futures. we are seeing signs of the movement. dow jones industrial average down 82. the nasdaq is down 46 points. checking on the bond market where yields are in focus for

investors. we are ticking higher. ten-year treasury is 4.496%. hovering below the 4.5% mark. two-year note is we are seeingl prices with a catalyst for consumers as lower fuel prices added spending power to the wallets. we are seeing more signs of downside action in wti and u.s. crude. $74.26. off 1.5%. ice brent crude is off 1.5% as well at $79.30. and natural gas is continuing the down slide. let's check on the european trade as it is shaping up. julianna tatelbaum is in the london newsroom with the early action there.

good morning, julianna. >> dom, good morning. here in europe, we have been open for a couple of hours and we're off to a muted start. downbeat to categorize it. ftse 100 is down .50%. oil and gas stocks in europe are trading lower this morning in line with the pullback in oil that you pauwalked through, dom. d dax is down .20%. the ibex 35 in spain was trading higher this morning, but we have seen that market pare back the strong gains. the swiss market down .40%. it seems the downbeat trade we're seeing here started in asia overnight. you did see a pullback in stocks there. a muted tone for trading. we have flash cpi for the reason this week.

that is key for investors as well as the opec plus summit as well. dom. thank you very much, julianna tatelbaum. let's check on the top corporate stories with silvana henao. good morning. >> dom, good morning. elon musk is set to meet with israel president herzog today. the announcement by herzog's office comes over backlash of musk's platform following his support of views on the platform. last week, fortune 500 company ads appearing along posts supporting the nazi party. x could lose $75 million of ad revenue as millions pause marketing campaign over the issue.

openai is moving forward with the shared sale following the leadership shakeup from last year. the sale is expected to value the chatgpt creator at $86 billion. it could test the investor confidence in the company. the financial times reports that some investors remain bullish that the sale will top the $29 billion valuation hit earlier this year following the cash infusion from microsoft. a rough holiday box office for disney and "wish" falling short of expectations bringing in $31.7 million in the first five days in theaters. analysts were hoping for an opening between $45 million and $55 million. in its place, "hunger game" bringing in $32 million. i guess everyone was out shopping. >> everybody was shopping online

or otherwise. thank you, silvana henao. investors are getting set for the final trading week of november following four straight positive weeks of gains for the major indices. stocks and bonds rallying this month with the qqq which tracks the nasdaq 100 with the largest inflow on record. a number of high yield bonds notching the two weekly high inflows ever. $5.7 trillion is sitting in money market funds. dry powder. let's talk about the outlook with ben emons at newedge wealth. ben, this is a setup we have talked about with seasonal trends. is that much dry powder on the sidelines due to come into the equity markets or could it go elsewhere or just stay put with

5% yields on cash balances? >> i think you can say all of it, dom. i know 5% on money markets is attractive if you think about it from a year ago. that dry powder speaks to people willing to take risks. if you have a lot of cash on the sidelines, you need a buffer which is to take an opportunity when the market goes up. the seasonals are strong and it seems to be working out like in the past. it is a bit of self fulfilling. you can see that money going into the bond market. on the other hand, going into the different year next year. >> let's talk about the valuations. some would argue the run-up we have seen over the last few weeks in certain tech stocks, especially the megacap ones, has made it certain that the valuations are not as compelling and there may be more compelling opportunities in other parts of the market.

do you think equities are still the place to be and if so, is it still megacap tech? >> it is not megacap tech. if 2024 earnings forecast were too rorosy, those valuations we out of line. some of it plays a role with people being careful on mega-cap te tech. you can look at the forecast and that's where the opportunity is if you believe and we think that the recession scenario is not really playing out. most of the rise in interest rates have been fully absorbed by small cap survey sensitive to high interest rates. i think that is where the valuation probably is here. >> the slowdown narrative has been dragging on the small and mid-cap trade. the so-called "smid-cap" trade.

just how forceful could it be? could they catch large caps or something where they catch 25% to 50% of the large-cap move and that is good enough? >> that is the right way to think about it. 25% to 50% potential move because the mega caps are still large ones in the index because of the index flows and people still flock to those out of safety and familiarity and profitability reasons. what you talk about here is the economy itself. we are coming off a hot quarter and it has slowed down a bit. the retail sales data is showing from black friday and today is showing really good numbers. i think the economy is up for another acceleration. that drives the small-cap reversion. >> speaking of the safety trade, it often has been government bonds. specifically on the u.s. side of

things. we have seen a massive buying effort in government bonds which pushed interest rates below the 5% that we saw with the cycle highs this time around. at the same time, we see acceleration in retail sales data and less of a risk on the horizon. where is the government bond trade in your mind? has it played out or is there still opportunity there? >> it is a bit of a tricky one. we deal with the deficit and supply in the background now and it can come back. we are borrowing a lot of money, including next year, which has been an issue over the last summer with supply issues plaguing the treasury market. on the other hand, this is the economy itself. the acceleration we went through and cooling off and re- re-accelerating keeps the yield levels high. don't be surprised to see the

ten-year yield going back to 5% as the fed says they are done, as they say. >> ben emons, thank you. i appreciate it. a news alert. biden administration is announcing a new plan covering partnerships to tackle issues plaguing the u.s. supply chain. joining us with the breaking details is lori ann loracco. >> reporter: good morning, dom. this hits on several issues, drugs, chips and logistics fluidity. on the drug front, department of health and human services and commerce department addressing foreign dependency on critical drugs. the supply chain shortage ko coordinator position will be filled at a later date.

the president will broaden the authority of hhs under the defense production act. this would pave the way for investment in the domestic manufacturing of medicines the president deems as essential to national defense. the department of transportation is also announcing the expansion of digital information system known as f.l.o.w. five of the ports are participating along with the ocean carriers. four of the five largest retailers and logistics companies and west coast railroads are participating. finally, the creation of the department of homeland security supply chain resilience center. it will work with businesses to mitigate supply chain shortages. this also funds the chips which are prioritized. the department of energy will work toconduct deep dive

analysis on clean energy supply. the commerce department will use data and analytics to create supply chain risk assessment tools. this part of the white house council on supply chain resilience which has the first meeting today. dom. >> lori ann, this is part of the biden economics kind of effort here. bidenomics, so to speak. the goal to cut inflation. is that this kind of thinking for this particular move? >> reporter: exactly, dom. the chart shows the consumer price index. look at those numbers. see year over year. that is the impact of the congestion and sky high prices we all lived through during covid. time is money. reducing delivery times and

avoiding the tension costs kick down the price of goods. dom. >> lori ann loracco, thank you. we have more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word investors have to know today, but first the report from the retail frontlines. we speak to the head of the dhl supply chain operations coming off the record breaking cyber weekend. we come off one year since the launch of chatgpt and the timing could not be better. and why our next guest says the fed reached the final mile he .e fight against inflation weava busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break. tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the early numbers are in for black friday. according to adobe, shoppers shelled out $9.8 billion online. that is up from the same time last year despite surging inflation and the warnings from walmart and dick's and others. joining me now is dhl supply chain and president of ecommerce is craig foreman. managing transportation across 500 operating sites.

craig, can you tell me what shoppers are doing and if you feel this is momentum that can be sustained? >> thanks, dom, for having me. it is an interesting year for us this year. i don't think we had the confidence going into black friday. sales were soft going in. that is the trend of the last couple years with covid. early black friday sales adopted by the consumer. it was softer this year and when black friday hit, we saw that better year on year sales before and shoppers really took to the day and i really think that shoppers know what they want and what they want to buy and waiting for the best possible deal. they went after it on black friday which is great news. >> kraig, one if he nphenomenon

over the last couple years is better dealingss come out on bl friday over cyber monday. i finished my shopping in the weeks before because of the deals. do you feel more people have been shopping throughout the course of the last several weeks and could that impact the next few weeks because people have spent that dry pourwder? >> we have seen that in the last couple years. this year was not as heavy. we saw softer sales year on year coming into friday which was surprising. that's really something that retailers have been focused on trying to level out the impact black friday has on supply chain and operating costs. this year, we saw more pre-pandemic buying behaviors where black friday was the

exciting day to shop. i think you are seeing that in the seales numbers as well. it will be interesting to see how people behave on monday. this weekend is the super bowl for retailers. saturday and sunday this weekend is halftime. the first half was strong on friday. we really need to see what the second half looks like with cyber monday coming in it strong to see how it looks for the year. >> we will look at those numbers for the day, kraig. i want to ask about pricing. inflation has been a big issue for consumers. do you feel as though the discounting this season has been as pervasive as it has been in the last few years? do you feel people are still waiting for deals will get them in the days leading up to christmas? >> i think there are a couple of things. our data shows this year's sale

levels or discounts were not as deep as last year. the primary reason for that is last year retailers were holding inventory. they were discounting that specific inventory heavily trying to move levels down and grab that through this holiday period. those sales through this holiday period. retailers had a stronger inventory balance and able to target what inventory they were able to move and really focus on margins this year. it is an important aspect for the retail partners to ss ss to successful year. if you look at the balance this year, the heavy discounts will continue at the rate. what you will see is the discounts will change coming into cyber monday. different products will get the same discount levels you would

have seen on friday, but changing the profile of the offering a little bit. >> kraig foreman with the inside track on ecommerce trends. thank you. >> thanks for having me. ahead on "worldwide exchange," we have more on that retail landscape and the stocks our next guest has her eye on set to capture the cyber monday shopping traffic trends. that's coming up after this. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently.

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we clcome back to the developing story. hamas released hostages on friday. nbc's brie jackson is in d.c. brie, there is a relief for families out there, but there are still more hostages held by hamas. >> reporter: good morning, dom. president biden has said he is hopeful more americans will be released in today's exchange. the president is encouraging an extension in the four-day cease-fire agreement with israel and hamas. 4-ye 4-year-old abigail adan is the first american released from hamas. this video shows others released on sunday. emotional homecoming for those

waiting 50 days for their release. >> a relief to see them mismili. it is overwhelming. we are all walking around with this brick on our chest for so long. >> reporter: president biden also expressing his relief while pushing for more hostages to come home. >> we continue to press and expect more americans to be released as well. we will not stop until every hostage is returned to their loved ones. >> reporter: humanitarian aid continues to flow into gaza under the protection of the four-day pause in fighting. a deal set to end today. the biden administration is pushing to extend it. >> hamas will make the decision about whether they are prepared to release another ten hostages. israel put its cards on the table. the ball is in hamas' court. >> reporter: on capitol hill, the battle over aid continues for the week.

>> it will continue through the end of the year. >> reporter: families are hopeful that others held captive return soon. the israeli government has warned it isis prepared for the next stage of the war once the pause in fighting ends. >> brie, you mention for funds for israel. what is the status of the president's request? >> reporter: this is something that chuck schumer said that congress plans to get back to work on when they return from thanksgiving break. president biden be asked for $1 billion for aid for israel and ukraine as well as military equipment. this funding for ukraine is dependent on money for the southern border. dom. >> thank you, brie jackson.

we have latest on our other stories in new york with frances rivera. >> thank you, dom. a hijacker has been released from the u.s. navy. a distress signal after rockets were shot at from yemen. five men took over the ship and the "uss mason" responded. the houthi group would take over the ship and no israelis were on board. president biden will skip the climate summit for the first time in two years. neither the president nor vice president will attend the cop-28 summit in dubai. special envoy john kerry will be in attendance. this serves as a global check-in to limit global warming to 1.5

degrees celsius. and the ravens spotted flowers and pouints on sunday night football. baltimore against the chargers and the rookie brought in the first score and the eventual game winner on the 37-yard touchdown. chargers turned the ball over four times and the ravens win 20-10. they currently sit atop of the afc. dom, those are the headlines. >> thank you, frances rivera, for those headlines. straight ahead on the show, forget match.com or conttindr. the top dating web sites when we return after this. if an application needs to be modernized then you'll need time, resources... and caffeine. if this sounds daunting then use watsonx code assistant

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we're just coming up on 5:32a.m. eastern time in the national ennew york area. here is what's on deck. stocks fighting to keep the four-week winning streak alive. a record-breaking holiday retail weekend in the books. the stocks our next guest says should be on your shopping list. we kickoff the special looking at one year since the launch of chatgpt. why the time going could not be better. it is monday,november 27th, 202. you 2023. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc.

welcome back to the show. i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. let's check on futures which are on the down side right now. s&p futures are implied lower by 8 points before the opening bell. nasdaq down 47 and the dow jones industrial average down 25. if you take a look at the hot spots of the market so far, over of the last week, the tech trade played out with software stocks. this is the ishare software etf ticker igv. as you can see here, just in the last few days, we have notched one-year highs for this particular etf. we are away from the record highs from the last several years. keeping in on that tech trade and software. one other hot spot to watch out

for and may be under the radar amid the market moves in technology have been in insurance names. check out aflac and progressive. over the last year, we have seen these stocks with solid performance, but each of the three stocks hit record highs at one point over the last week. watch out for the insurance names like property casualty or health other owise could be par of that trade. and if you look at yields and interest rates, check out the ishares ticker tlt. it tracks the longer end of the yield curve. since the cycle highs in interest rates and lows in bond prices we have seen are up 9% to 10% since the middle of october.

if you like to look at the etfs as a way to gauge the interest rate, check this this particular etf. in the bond market, we mentioned those yields. let's put the yield numbers along prices for bonds. benchmark ten-year note is lower in the session at 4.476%. t two-year note at 4.5%. also on the oil side of things, we have seen weakness in wti at $74.13. off 2% at this stage. 1.75% for ice brent crude at $79.21. nat gas is down $2.32. this marks one year since the public release of chatgpt application by openai and the start of the year-long a.i. arms

race with microsoft and nvidia. all week long, we will look at sectors from medical to cloud computing to the popular online c chatbots and where things stand and what the next 12 months could bring. joining me with a look at the impact is our senior analyst richard kramer. this is the significant move in technology. what parts are still part of the momentum trade and could have that momentum going forward? >> dom, nice to see you again. i think of you used the phrase arms race. i think the bursting of the hype with chatgpt and reality of openai and corporate governance in the last week or so raises the reality that we're looking

at not a sprint, but marathon. let's put numbers on the marathon. for the big five tech, $160 billion this year to $190 billion next year. r & d with a 9% growth. you are seeing incredible amounts of capital put to work here to corner the market in compute capacity and also to make all of the a.i. that's used internally at this companies and make no mistake, they are all a.i. companies today. they make that internal a.i. capacity available for third parties and to commercialize it for the rest of the world. >> in your mind, we have shown the list of the names associated

with the trade. meta, microsoft, apple, alphabet. among those, do you think there is a clear winner right now or one that you think could be the one to watch out for, a la, chatgpt and the momentum? >> it is a mistake to pick out win clear winner like this is a horse race. you won't have a win, place, show. all will benefit from the trend. if one singles out as being an o outlier on the list, it is alphabet. a year ago, it was alphabet was late and into gemini was being delayed and now with what's going on with openai and microsoft and some legitimate

concerns of safety and the legitimate time it takes to commercialize a.i. and now p people will look at alphabet and the approach of releasing into the market and family of models over the course of 2024 is more appropriate and more the right one. not simply to rush things out and see how they go. >> richard, quickly, before we let you go. the one name that wasn't on the list was nvidia. the biggest play on a.i. the single best performing stock in the s&p 500 up 227% so far this year. what's the prospect for nvidia and other chip companies? >> we had a buy on nvidia for some time. clearly they have pricing power on their side and notwithstanding the question marks of continuing to sell chips in china when you step back and look at the big

questions in investors minds are what happens to nvidia in 2025 and beyond and whether there is a natural digestion phase of the compute absorbed into the market right now. clearly, nvidia is not without competitors. you have amd and you have intel which needs to revive its business. these markets will be competitive. it is a mistake to think about them as there is only one winner. when you look and see the charts you are putting up on intel and amd, all of the companies will benefit and they are all c committing to cap ex. >> richard kramer, thank you very much. see you soon. >> thanks, dom. as you take a look at the live shot of the amazon facility in new jersey, the busy holiday shopping season showing no signs of slowing down as consumers

turn from black friday sales to cyber monday deals. that's in robbinsville, new jersey. the adobe report shows shoppers will spend $12 billion today after shoppers spent $9.8 billion on black friday. that is up 7.5% over last year. adobe notes con ssumers are managing tighter budgets with $79 million in sales coming from shoppers using a buy now pay later option. those are up 50% on a year over year basis. for more on what to expect this holiday season, let's bring in jeronne martis. nice to see you here. >> good to see you. >> it is the super bowl for folks like you and those who cover retail. given what we saw on black friday and cyber monday, do you

think the american consumer is that healthy or is the spending number we have seen is because they are spending more because of inflation? >> inflation has cost the consumer to become a bargain hunter. we saw the retail areretailers those sales. we when look at the overall holiday quarter, we are expecting to see a 1.4% increase. we are seeing lower cost pressure than pre-pandemic. having said all that, more merchandise has gone on sale as we have progressed from the black friday event to cyber monday event. what they are hoping is that by increasing the amount of merchandise, they will entice shoppers to come in. >> what is interesting is we e

spoke to dhl head of ecommerce. he brought up the idea there hasn't been as much deep discounting this season as last year because many inventory levels were over surplus last year. they are better right now. does that mean investors can count on better march margins? >> earnings are expected to grow 24.5% because of the lower cost pressures due to the pandemic. the number to watch is 40%. unless you are getting a 40% discount, you are getting an every day discount. >> what is the likelihood you can get the 40% discount and what products? >> it is likely you will get it at the department stores. they are the ones who have been increasing the amount of

merchandise. especially apparel. then u.s. mall stores online. >> from a final point, on a relative value basis and former trader in me likes to look at relative value. if i was to be shopping in the last two to three weeks before k christmas, where do you anticipate the relative deals? electronics or appliances or clothing? >> a spike in discounts the weekend before cyber money. the most promotional is the department stores because they have been out of favor. we expect to see the same trend. there are some winners. amazon because of the value proposition is expected to beat earnings and post a positive surprise. consumers will gravitate toward walmart for every day value discounting and the consumer wants designer for less.

tjx and ross are expected to be winners. you have a following with lululemon and ralph lauren and abercrombie. thank you. coming up on the show, more support and what beijing did to send stocks surging in the overnight action. still ahead, some of the top trending stories. even love is too expensive. the wall street journal says higher prices for dating apps are causing people to turn to alternative methods in the search for love. yelp, strava, duolingo. taylor swift impressing the richest people on earth. mark zuckerberg's every day routine includes learning taylor swift songs with his three daughters after taking them to

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the "global briefing." the beijing stock exchange stops

major companies from selling stock on the exchange. reuters says it is out of concern it could dampen the market rally. major shareholder is one with a 5% stake. bytedance will restructure after it failed to gain success over net ease. huawei will more the smart car to a new joint venture with changan auto. ahead, the one word every investor needs to know today and why our next guest says we may be in the final mile in the fight against inflation. that story when we come back afteth bak r isre.

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be ready for any market with a liquid etf. get in and out with dia. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the wex wrap-up. elon musk is set to meet with

israeli president herzog. more than 30 states are filing a lawsuit against meta platforms over failing to disabled underage accounts after receiving complaints. openai is moving forward with the planned sale of $86 mil billion valuation. elliott management is recommending changes at crown castle to boost the stake in the company. changes could include nominations for the slate of director candidates early next year. a rough rholiday box office for disney for "wish" bringing in $37.1 million in the weekend

debut over the estimate of $45 million to $55 million. here is what to watch this week. a fresh batch of housing data. impending home sales and new home sales. we get third quarter real gdp. on the earnings front, reports from dollar tree, foot locker, salesforce and ulta. and on thursday, opec plus will meet. let's see how the futures are moving right now. dow jones industrial average implied lower by 30 points. s&p down 5 points and the nasdaq is down 13. joining me now is katrina dudley. we have seen stocks rally sharply already. is there still more fuel in the tank for the next three or four

weeks? >> i think we really need to understand what those issues that are facing traders used to be. inflation is one that has been on people's minds. i look at the inflation and i think we're in the final mile. we tackled it and have been successful. we are down from 5.8 to 3.7 and it is coming down. that will support the market. >> it is a bold call. no one wants to call the inflation before inflation really ends. what are you seeing that makes you feel as though the inflation story is coming down? >> it is not a big bang. it is small data pieces. we look at the wage number. yes, it is high. if you offset productivity and are you looking at wage canucks c coming closer to the oil trends. the oil, while people think impacts the consumer, but it is

a derivative and goes into many products. the tempered oil-related products feeds into lower inflation. that is the thing. it needs to be a lower number. we need it to be much lower than the past year. >> i like to get to your word of the day. i want to hear why it is you feel this is your word of the day. >> my word of the day is complacency. why? it is characteristic of what we are seeing. the low mortgage rates that people locked in during the pandemic. people are trapped in their houses. you look at people who got the sweetheart deals at the gym. they are locked into the gym. people got great work-from-home deals from the employer. they are locked in to the employer. we think about the complacency and what it means for the market. part that have means because you are locked into those deals, you are actually keeping inflation

low. your gym price is not going to go down any further. it is really not going to go up. complacency is the word. >> we have a handful of seconds here. in your mind, what is on your shopping list? >> i like things that are predictable. one stock is aircraft. it is a high single digit low yield on movable assets. aircraft move around the world. that is the name we like here. >> all right. katrina dudley, thank you for the word of the day and your shopping list. have a great holiday weekend. >> thank you. if you take a look at futures right now, speaking of the move we have seen, it will be a generally positive month for november, but future is pointing to loses at the opening bell. dow down 28. the nasdaq down 18 and the s&p down 5 points.

keep it here. "squawk box" picks up thmaete rk coverage coming up next. we'll see you here tomorrow.

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good morning. stock futures are a little bit lower heading into the final trading week of november. the nasdaq is up 11% for the month. elon musk visiting israel today meeting with the country's president and family members of those held hostage by hamas. musk has been accused of amplifying anti-jewish hate. and shopping season in full swing. we have the numbers of how much

consumers spent on black friday. it's monday, november 27th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. we are we go. it is monday. we have seen four weeks in a row for gains of the averages. if you look at where things stand this morning, not much to write home about. dow futures are off 23 points. s&p down 5. the nasdaq is off by 15 points. if you are looking at where we have come from november, dow is up 7%. s&p is up 8.7% and the nasdaq u