consumers spent on black friday. it's monday, november 27th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. we are we go. it is monday. we have seen four weeks in a row for gains of the averages. if you look at where things stand this morning, not much to write home about. dow futures are off 23 points. s&p down 5. the nasdaq is off by 15 points. if you are looking at where we have come from november, dow is up 7%. s&p is up 8.7% and the nasdaq up

10.9%. treasury yields, which is the reason for the move. treasury yields have come down on the assumption the fed is done raising rates and may potentially raise rates in the not too distant future. ten-year note is 4.46%. the two-year note is 4.94%. the dollar is seeing a rally on this expectation of the rates coming down from here. now to the cease-fire in gaza. hamas released an additional 17 hostages. including a 4-year-old girl. that brings the total number released to 58. remember there were 240 people taken on october 7th. a fourth exchange is expected today. international mediators are trying to extend the cease-fire that began on friday. israel would agree to an extra day of cease-fire for every ten

additional hostages released. you can see the benefit of taking hostages. you get a lot of negotiating power after as horrific as october 7th was. i don't know. i hope people don't suddenly think what a humanitarian and generous organization we have seen here. it is trickling out. they are getting as many palestinian prisoners released for every hostage taken. they were convicted of crimes and ended up in jail versuses slaug slaughtering people. they are negotiating. the longer it lasts, the longer jihadists can exit. you are seeing a lot of opinions

wavering now as we knew would as the mainstream media gets involved. we have to consider the collateral damage that can allow hamas to become an insurgent. you need rehe soresolve. >> i wasn't sure they would see any hostages come back from this ordeal. in the meantime, elon musk is visiting israel today. the president herzog would meet with musk and emphasize the need to combat the rise of racism online. the meeting comes days after musk was accused of amplifying anti-jewish hate on x. a dozen of major brands have

paused advertising. the lost revenue can cost the company as much as $75 million by the end of the year. musk has not responded to requests for comments about his visit to israel. in corporate news, openai is sticking with the employee stock sale which had been planned before alsam altman was fired t days ago and came back last week. that is expected to value the company at $86 billion. the company was last valued at $29 billion after microsoft committed $10 billion in the company at the start of the year. lawyers for binance ceo to allow him to return to his home for violates anti-money la

laundering rules. it may not be able to secure his return if he chooses not to come back to the u.s. for sentencing. zhao's lawyers say allowing him to return home gives him a chance to care for his partner and three children and prepare for se sentencing. also black friday spending, you may not be surprised, was up. it was up 7.5% from a year ago. it reached a record $9.8 billion in the united states. that's according to the report from adobe. $79 million in sales came from consumer whos who opted for the now pay later option. that was up 47% from last year. a separate measure from salesforce said online sales grew 9% over last year. the retail sales on black friday

were up 2.5% year over year according to mastercard. the in-store sales were up 1.1%. we heard from jan on friday. he said don't read too much into the black friday number. it is a longer season. the longest you could have. 31 days between black friday and christmas. this calendar year bodes well for the year-end sales. >> you ever get a christmas tree on black friday? >> yeah. a lot of crowds? >> there were crowds. on your way to the place and every car that is leaving has a christmas tree on top. >> looks like chevy chase "christmas vacation." >> people call me clark griswald.

>> you didn't make them stand up to their bellies in snow? the tree on top of the porsche? >> no. it can't fit that many people in there. we have a navigator. holiday weekend -- people thought it was a minivan. it's a navigator, dummy sd. >> i have a minivan. >> i do not. >> i know. "hunger games" brought in $42 million over the five-day period. "nap "napoleon" beat expectations. i don't know what he was really like. i see his hat just sold for over $1 million. i would like to see this gentleman's take, joachim

phoenix. i see him as a brodingi. there are people who say he is one of our greatest actors. you saw "joker," right? >> i'm not too scared. >> it is not that different. >> i get enough of that. >> driving in the morning. it is not that different. disney's feature "wish" fell short bringing in $31.7 million in the first five days in theaters. analysts were expecting $45 million and $55 million. i'm sure this is as woke as woke gets. did you read that article?

they are putting in their 10k now. we may need to put in more money to further the things we believe the culturally. glad there are companies that are willing to do that. tell me how i should be living. >> it's going over well, i see. when we come back this morning, we will get you your guide to the trading week ahead. we have the "squawk planner" coming up next. futures showing red arrows. dow futures down by less than 30. later, congress member ro khanna will join us on set. we have a lot to talk about with him. you are tcngwahi "squawk box" and this is cnbc. businesses are wondering "what should we do with it?" i'm thinking company wide power nap. [ employees snoring ] anything can change the world of work. from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything.

i would say that we're closer than the average mother daughter. hi mom! if i lost my mom.... i can't think about that for too long. i was like, "whoa, mom, i have this gene!" kenzie's test and me being able to find out that i was brca positive was lifesaving. the holidays wouldn't be worth celebrating without my family. with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. retinol overnight means... the smoothing benefits of retinol. are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. fresh, warm hot dogs! when i'm not selling hot dogs, i invest in a fund that advances innovations like robotics. fresh, warm hot dogs, straight out of my torso! one for you, one for you. oh, you're a messy one.

cool, right? so cool. anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. hot dogs! fresh, warm hot dogs! before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

on this week's "squawk planne planner," we have the new home sales out today and the gdp for the third quarter on wednesday and jobless claims and personal income data. on friday, the first day of december, but we will not get jobs numbers that day. the november employment report will be released a week later on december 8th. on the earnings calendar, hp

reports after the closing bell tomorrow. dow's salesforce reports wednesday afternoon. we hear from kroger and bell technologies. joining us right now is sri kumar. sri, let's talk about this. you think they don't know what to do? >> if you look at the latest minutes from last tuesday about the october 31st meeting, they gave you enough reasons why they should hike interest rates. rates could hike again. they also told you if there were signs of weakness, and there were delinquencies were increasing. in other words, they gave you no died anguidance at all.

if you are doing your decision meeting by meeting as chairman powell has said repeatedly, you don't have a path. if you don't have a path, you will be confused yourself and cause confusion that market. >> maybe that is not a bad thing to do at the point of inflation. you realize you stop raising. does that mean you cut? not necessarily. hold pat and see. >> that is the big question. standing pat is not an alternative of not knowing what to do. maybe you should be increasing or cutting. they are saying they are going to stand pat. as far as the point of inflation is concerned, they had a structured policy and the markets would be able to anticipate the point of inflection. they realize it is coming and adjust to it. right now, because of the

uncertainty, the market is able to digest. you saw the ten-year bond in october shoot up and in november plunge. you could have more of the cycles in the coming months. a lot of volatility. >> is there a reason to think a rules-based system would be better than using human gut feeling about what they're going? you say they don't know. do you definitively know what to do and are you 100% sure you would be right if you were in charge? would it be better? do you want a doctor who -- medicine is an art, not a science. if you just uses rules and do this and go head-long into something that you follow a, b, c, d and then say wait a minute. it is difficult. >> it is a difficult process,

joe. >> could you be better? you think the rules base is better and people would know? you might be wrong, but they know. >> exactly right. you are correct. i'm a follower of my professor of ph.d. john taylor at stanford. the taylor rule says you put in a growth rate which is higher or lower than what you desire. inflation, which is higher or lower than what you desire, and that is the formula. that formula is known to the whole world. >> why don't they do it? >> a great reason. it's a bureaucracy. that means they don't have jobs. you can have a computer do the work. go home. i suggested we pay them a higher salary not to come to work because then you will have more certainty in the market and more clarity and you will not have the confusion.

>> the person sitting in the white house telling them what to do, not that president biden is doing that. trump did. they all do. >> they all do it. >> especially in the election year. >> keep in mind john taylor was a candidate interviewed in the trump administration for the fed. that kind of a policy -- >> he would not have lasted long with trump. >> exactly. you ask the question if it is good for the market, joe. here are the reasons. >> is it good for the economy? >> good for the economy. if you bring in a limited amount of certainty and reduce the risk, you are improving it. going back to forward died an guidance, which was championed by ben bernancke in 2020, it allows you to have a lower interest rate than otherwise and faster growth rate than otherwise and more capital i

inve investment. >> it does prevent people from doing the things that they do with zero interest rates. >> precisely. >> you are worried about a couple of fronts. one is we will wake up with a crisis which was worse than the spring. what makes you think that? >> the world is uncertain on the geopolitical side. i think domestically in terms of financial situations, i see a rising problem with the banks. report after report that the banks put out and latest by citi points to $550 billion of troubled loans. they will keep increasing. at some point it breaks. i wake up and find out there is a real crises and i don't know if it is this morning or a morning three months from now. that is the roeeason you are operating in a cloud of

uncertainty. >> that is not the base case. that is something you worry about? >> my base case is something breaking. >> really? >> yeah. my base case is not anything specific. it could be the real estate issue. it could have pension funds suffering huge losses. similar to the united kingdom in september and october of 2022. it could be a credit crunch. it could be a banking crisis bigger than what we had in march. all of those or any one of them is my base case. >> the next few months or three years? >> the next few months. i think the uncertainty is coming to a point and some people think it is the point of infl infliction. i think you will see a decisive moment come in the next three months. >> okay. that is scarier than i thought you were anticipating. as a result, what do you do? >> as a result, what do you do?

i think i would say once again, joe asked the question about rules-based policy. it is never too late to adopt it if you say this is what we will use the policy and implement it. >> as an investor, what do you do? >> as an investor, as an investor, clearly what this means is long-dated fixed income continues to remain a big buy because of the uncertainties make for a capital gain for you in long-dated fixed income. they are not positive for equity. >> the fed has already overshot? if they are going to break something, it is already broken and conditions are tighter than they should be. >> conditions are tighter than they should be. >> do they know that? they haven't raised rates in how long? how did they get so tight? >> they got so tight because you have a policy of easing policy

in 2020 and 2021. you had an extreme amount of tightness. it is not just 5.5%. >> they haven't done anything in how long? a hike in how long? >> they have hiked too fast. >> significantly tighter and the bond market did it on the ten-year bond and it ran 5%. it continued to do qt and it seems like it is tighter -- with these pauses, they already backed off a little bit. you are saying it still got tighter in the last six months? >> it has got tighter. think about the last time we had quantitative easing was march this year. the fed balance shot up in the first half of march. >> since then? >> since then you went back to kwquantitative tightening. with the interest rates not

changing, you are tightening. >> we overshot? >> we overshot. we find that quantitative tightening is a more powerful weapon than interest rate increases. >> we haven't seen that we overshot with economic data. we haven't seen it in the jobs data. a little bit in retail sales. we haven't seen it. >> we haven't. on the financial side and you see it with consumer delinquencies. credit cards. people delaying payments on credit cards. credit card debt increased. that is the easiest debt to acquire. you don't need to go to the bank to get a loan. you can run up the balance on the credit card. that is see in the banking sitn and the problem with the loans increasing. you are seeing that not with the consumer, joe, that is correct. you are seeing it on the financial side. >> sri, thank you for coming in

today. >> great to be with you both. >> great to see you. >> i don't know why the stock market would keep going up for the rest of the year, sri. >> the answer to that is that is what tightening is here. the peak in october of 2007. the great recession began two months later. july of 2008. >> i should have let him stop. >> joe, i like to point out that the european central bank increased interest rates. they thought the real problem was global inflation. you do have central banks which make mistakes. >> we have to remember there is a lag. >> precisely. >> we can't just look around at the weather and say it is great next week. okay. thanks. >> thank you very much. good to be with you. >> good to be with you. we have new video just in of elon musk's visit to israel.

here he is. he and prime minister netanyahu toured the israeli rkibbutz tha was attacked on october 7th. he was taken to the home of the security chief who was killed in a gun fight with terrorists. "squawk box" is coming right back. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com why choose a sleep number smart bed? because no two people sleep the same. (we did it) only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed,

plus free home delivery when you add an adjustable base. ends cyber monday. shop for a limited time and sleep next level. only at sleep number. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. [alarm clock ringing] (♪♪) [van engine] (♪♪)

[card reader chimes] (♪♪) [inaudible chatter] [kitchen bell dings] [inaudible chatter] [keyboard clicking] (♪♪) [card reader chimes] (♪♪) tiktok parent bytedance plans to cut hundreds of jobs in gaming and wind down the game development brand newverse.

they will cancel the product development. chinese gaming rival tencent and netease were up slightly in hong kong trading overnight. alibaba shuts s the quantum computing lab followg the surprise cancellation of the spinoff and listing of the cloud services division. when we come back, congress is back in session today and set to begin work on the funding bills ahead of the deadline in january. we will tell you what's on the docket nt.ex "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next

level network. sses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business. encore energy, america's clean energy company

poised for production in south texas, energizing america with reliable and affordable nuclear energy fuel with an environmentally friendly extraction process. encore energy. my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene and i think you need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving.

good morning. welcome back to "squawk box."

we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. the dow futures are down from a half hour ago. the nasdaq down 20. the dollar index is worth watching. there's been significant pressure on the dollar index. month to date is down 3%. it comes after the huge run-up when the united states was the only place raising rates. that's when people were flocking to the dollar. now that trade is letting out. it looks like the rate hikes have ended. gold prices this morning up .50%. above $2,000. bitcoin looks like it is down slightly, but right at $37,000. >> it was 38 briefly over the weekend. congress is set to reconvene today after a three-week recess with several funding bills in

limbo and a mid-january deadline on the horizon. house speaker mike johnson is against additional stopgap funding measures. joining us with more on the challenges facing lawmakers is former congress member donna edwards and mike short and former white house director of affairs for former president trump. congresswoman, a lot is going on. we are watching the developments and thinking about what is happening in israel with the hostages and we would like to get aid to israel. many would like ukraine as well get aid. how would you see he this playing out? >> i have to tell you with the run-up to the continuing resolution where republicans have lost 93 of their members

doesn't bode well forthe future. frankly, i think mike johnson is in the same position as his predecessor kevin mccarthy in that he can't really consolidate his conference. he has to rely on democrats to get votes. frankly, relying on democrats to get the votes for a bill which means the bill has to be different and the funding bills will not have the extreme cuts that many in the republican conference want. the reality is if they send something over that has the extreme cuts, the senate will reject that and send something back that is along the lines of what the debt ceiling limits negotiation was. it is hard to see a way forward if johnson wants to rely solely on republican votes. >> how does that play out, mark? the congresswoman is right and

the cuts that were negotiated by the former speaker, a lot of people said were better than nothing, given you had a democrat in the white house and democratic senate. not enough for certain elements of the house caucus. i was going to say how do you solve a problem like -- what's that song? maria. it doesn't encompass the freedom caucus. the problem doesn't go away. >> it is hard to describe the cuts as extreme with $34 trillion in debt. i agree with the congresswoman. the reality is there is a three-vote margin for house republicans. if you expel santos this week, that dynamic will not change much getting something through house republicans. i think we are headed toward another continuing resolution come january. for investors, you deal with it

like a possible christmas shutdown for the first time in several years. you are back in the same position. the reality, joe, those who work with democrats who pushed kevin mccarthy out of the speakership, kevin spent less on the caps he necessitgo negotiated. i think we will be back in the same spot in january because you still have a democrat senate and democrat white house. the margin in the house for house republicans is so small and it is difficult to get something passed unless it is worked in the bipartisan fashion. that is limiting spending and keeping it at the current levels. >> the scuttlebutt, marc, and i'll get to the congresswoman. it is november now. the scuttlebutt about november with president biden on one hand

and former president trump on the other hand, marc. what are the odds that joe biden is the nominee and what are the odds that former president trump is the republican nominee? >> joe, i think they are ex extremely high at this point. i don't see someone competing with bodejoe biden for the nomination. the ratings continue to decline for the next primary. you are headed toward the rematch. the one thing that could be different is third party candidates. the extend there are third party candidates benefit donald trump. his support is poll polarized. that is less votes for biden which helps trump. you are headed toward a rematch. the question is how many third

party candidates will there be. >> not any pending court cases or if a conviction comes in one of them? they will be put off. it takes a long time for rico. some others could have a bad decision. >> i don't know if a conviction exchange the voter sentiment on the republican side. so far, all of the indictments have rallied people further behind trump. >> congresswoman, i was referencing the scuttlebutt with harris. i'm not sure i'm up for this job three or four years from now. it would be very difficult for

ga gavin newsom to leap frog a candidate. are you comfortable with biden? >> i'm comfortable with a biden-harris team going into 2024. i think all of this, you know, sort of behind the scenes discussion is really just that. it is rumor after rumor. democrats are going to settle in with joe biden as their nominee. i think that despite the recent polling of a coming together because people recognize that donald trump is going to be on the other side of that coin and i think at the end of the day, democrats unite behind that ticket and there will be plenty of people lined up in 2028 to contest for that nomination. among them the vice president and a number of other governors. democrats have an array of

governors up in 2028. i think this is just rumors gone amuck. i feel absolutely confident in the biden-harris ticket in 2024 against a weakened and, frankly, chaotic donald trump and chaotic republican party. >> i don't know about polls, marc. trump is up in every swing state. i don't know if you believe them. president biden's ratings are as bad as they have ever been. that is in 2023. there are people and, you know, it is the human condition. we see it with relatives and everything else. joe biden in 2023 is different than joe biden in 2020. he will be different than in 2025 and 2026 and whenever,

marc. is he the nominee? >> he will be the nominee. he will enter in the frail position. the question is age and voters look at the crisis at the southern border and war in eastern europe and war in the middle east. there is a lot of discontent over inflation. however, over the next year, a lot of focus will turn to the economy. if the fed finished raising rates and the fed is reluctant to raise rates in the presidential election year, that could bode well for him economically. i think he enters this in a weak position for an incumbent. that is generating a lot of support for donald trump that people look past the controversy and chaos and say at least we had an economy that was strong and situation on the global stage that was stable. we don't have that under joe biden's leadership right now. >> all right. it is surreal. it is. i just i don't know. i accept anything when i wake up

in the morning. nothing surprises me. i guess that's going to be our choice, congresswoman. congresswoman, thank you for being on. that's a beautiful red. it's christmassy. it certainly isn't a republican red. >> versus the democratic blue? >> democratic blue that he has on. keep us guessing. keep us all guessing. >> make sure everybody comes together. >> we should all have purple. >> like you. >> yeah. like me. right in the middle. coming up, retail report card is the latest data on spending for black friday. later, mohamed el-erian will join us with his take on the markets. you can get best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen any time. we'll be right back.

power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless.

and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

the beijing stock exchange has stopped major shareholders of companies from selling stock according to the reuters report which said the aim is at protecting the recent rally. shareholders with a 5% stake or more must make a public exchange

or more. the beijing stock exchange 50 index up year to date close to 17%. when we come back, we will look at the holiday shopping season so far. we hear from amazon's vp of the last mile delivery and technology. that's next. reminder, you can watch or listen to us live any time on the cnbc app.

why choose a sleep number smart bed? because no two people sleep the same. only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number settings. it's so smart, it actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side for your ideal sleep temperature, and effortlessly responds to both of you. for your best sleep, night after night. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed,

plus free home delivery when you add an adjustable base. ends cyber monday. shop for a limited time i was on a work trip when only at sleep number. the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life.

on this psych cyber monday, amazon is reporting a thousand items were purchased a second on black friday. joining us from amazon's fulfillment center in robinsville, new jersey is

baryl tomet, thanks a lot for being with us this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> all right, so a thousand items per second on black friday. how does that compare with a year ago, and how does that compare with a normal day? >> we had a huge black friday last week, and in fact, it was our highest sales, most items sold black friday in amazon's entire history. very excited about that. as you said, on average, customers ordered more than 1,000 items per second throughout the day, and our top selling categories included home, kitchen, toys, and beauty. i'm going to share a few of our top selling items as well. those were amazon fire tv sticks. those are always popular. this next one i'm really excited about because it's are from a small business seller. it's a really fun game called taco cat goat cheese pizza, check it out. and on prime video, our top

selling movies were barbie, oppenheimer and the latest "mission impossible." we're rolling right into cyber monday, more value, more savings for our customers, we have millions of deals dropping every five minutes through select periods and we actually have more deals than ever from small businesses. so check that out. >> how does that match up, though? obviously it's your biggest number yet, but to put it in perspective, when we hear online shopping numbers from adobe they suggest sales were up 7.5%. salesforce says they were up 9%. how much did amazon see an increase over a year ago from black friday? >> again, it was our biggest black friday ever. we were all about savings and value. >> yeah, you said that, what percentage increase? >> i don't have those numbers handy, but we're just excited that we had a great season. we're geared up for cyber monday. >> how many employees have you

all hired for holiday shopping season this year? what's the increase? >> to get ready for the demand we're hiring an additional 250,000 part-time, full-time, seasonal employees. we're excited -- actually, you can probably see a lot of activity behind me. folks are energized. they're excited. i was talking to a few of them this morning. we offer great pay, great benefits, and we're excited to be able to make this a long-term career for folks and not just a job for those who choose to be with us long-term. we have great upskilling initiatives we're going to invest $1.2 billion in upskilling over 300,000 of our employees. so we're excited to be able to invest in our employees as we also deliver for our customers through the holiday season. >> there were some amazon workers who were on strike at locations in europe on friday, on black friday.

a german trade union was estimating there were 2,000 workers on strike there. can you tell us a little bit about what's happening there? >> we run a huge operation, and our employees are the heart and soul of this company. so we want to ensure they have a great experience, a safe experience, and safety is our top priority, and you know, we're delivering through this holiday season and robotics is also a huge part of that story. robotics is we consider to be collaborative technology that works with our employees to help with repetitive motions, reducing walk distances, lifting heavy objects, that keeps them safer, provides a more ergonomic experience. it can choose to be our top priority, and we continually get feedback from our employees as well. >> beryl, thank you for your time today, beryl tomay. >> coming up, much more on the

holiday shopping season. we talk to retail guru mickey dr drexler in the next hour. "squawk box" will be right back. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪ ♪ upbeat music ♪

good morning, is wall street set up for a santa clause rally, we're going to read the charts and find out if there is room to run as we head into the final month of 2023. testing open ai's valuation, how much has the past week's leadership chaos cost the company and its backers. plus, black friday is in the books. small business saturday is behind us, and today is cyber monday. we're going to take an outlook at this year's holiday shopping season and the state of the consumer with mickey drexler. that's straight ahead. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, and welcome

back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick. andrew is off. u.s. equity futures at this hour down about 48 points. not a whole lot happening. almost felt like a -- almost felt like a long weekend. did for me. still not long enough. but you had that black friday sort of tough retail all day. >> it was a fine show. >> and then you were at that point able to go and do some online stuff or you actually did in person. >> did i buy anything online? i don't think i bought anything. >> you didn't? >> no, because i bought stuff ahead of time. >> everybody was home. treasuries 450, 450 on the ten-year or so, just beneath that, 4.46. oil still in the doldrums if you're bullish or long.

under $75 now, down $0.95 a day. then we saw bitcoin over the we could. it held up pretty well. was above 38,000 for a while, now just above 37,000. that's down 1.25 points. >> we played games. >> you did? >> lots of games. all those games i showed you and more. >> like twister? like what game? >> family feud, thanksgiving edition. >> you did? >> yeah. remember that game i showed you where you got to shake your -- >> yeah, that's a bad one. that was a bad one. you made the old people play that too? >> mostly the kids, some of the old people. >> yeah, it's tissue box, shake your booty. >> oh, yeah, that sounds bad. that's nice. >> family games, yeah. >> after a shortened -- saw a little football. after a shortened trading week, let's take a look at market technicals. see that 60 yard field goal, eagles coming back. >> i did not see it.

i heard. >> what? >> very end of the game. managing partner katie stockton a cnbc contributor -- >> before overtime. >> -- going to be on low volume, it has been the last couple of days. what about between now and the end of the year, katie? what do you think? seasonally it's strong, will players show up? >> you know, the seasonals are still there for the market. we obviously have an over bougt condition, but the markets absorb that really remarkably well. positive short-term momentum is still behind the major indices. that supports holding long exposure. the catch is now the s&p 500 is creeping up on that resistance of 4,600. so with the proximity of resistance right there and then support somewhat well below, maybe around 43.80 in our work, it creates a less favorable risk reward set up for new long exposure. our recommendation has been to now hold as opposed to add new exposure, and let's see if the

s&p 500 can get through that resistance level, as a nice not just short-term catalyst but long-term catalyst for next year. >> at this point, we're at the high end of -- we could be at the high end of -- becky, would you like to -- it'd be good while -- since they're taking this good shot, it would be -- now you're gone. i wanted you to just like on my question, i wanted you to like go -- like nod and just say, wow, that is -- whoa, okay, we're in the three shot now. thank you. no, i guess now that i've forgotten completely where i was going because of that, do you think at this point this is merely the high end of a trading range or is it something more? and when will we know? will it be resolved in the next six months or will we just turn down to go down and test the lower end of the range again? >> i think the good news is that

we'll know really soon. it's a proving ground for the market with this resistance so close by. and we feel that above that 4,600 that the new highs are a foregone conclusion. new highs being 5% above still, so that would of course dictate more bullishness from here. i think there's a good chance that the s&p 500 breaks out. i wouldn't position for that until it actually happens. we don't want to anticipate the breakouts. of course there is a long-term over bought condition that challenges the market. that would be an issue if we are still in this kind of secular trading range that we've identified over the last couple of years. i think the breath improvement is certainly encouraging. it seems a bit more interesting over the past couple of weeks with the small caps participating in a way they hadn't done. also from a bottom up perspective, we are seeing more and more breakouts in our work. that's something we really like because breakouts tend to generate additional momentum. one example was the aerospace

etf, it's ppa. great breakout to a new all time high extending its long-term uptrend. we're seeing a lot of charts like that that we like to see. >> god, i would hate to just attribute that to wars breaking out all over the world. it also has to do with commercial air travel and everything else, which would be good. which would be just a strong economy. is this the best chance that we've had to get out of this? you're not guaranteeing it right now. but because we're so close to the overhead resistance, you think it wouldn't surprise you if we did finally break out, but we have been in a trading range for a while, and probably also wins the prize if we stay in the secular trading range? >> well, the long-term indicators still haven't improved notably. they're neutral at best at this time. i do think they'll improve very quickly if we see that breakout just based on how close they are to sort of buy signals, if you will. the story is really a macro one, and of course i'm a technician, but i look at macro stuff from a

technical perspective, and when we see yields come off like they have done, it shows the loss of intermediate term momentum that i think is somewhat meaningful. it's the first real loss of momentum behind yields and months now. i think that's the key. also if you put an eye towards something like copper chr, whic a great gauge of sentiment around the global economy. copper is testing a long-term down trend line. if we saw a breakout, which would require very little upside follow-through, that would be another indication that this is a significant macro shift we have underway! so it would indicate that the global economy is improving because copper would not make a new low, but then why would rates -- why would rates also be falling? >> well, you know, the copper relief rally has occurred at the same time as rates have fallen, so i think the rate story is really more of a neutral one,

but that neutral will be welcomed by the equity market, and of course also the treasury market in a way. we're seeing those counter trend signals we talked about last time on the downside from the likes of tlt c, which is a treasury bond benchmark. what that signal that we cited before has implications for is the next nine months for stabilization. it doesn't mean we get a very strong rally in the treasury market, nor a pullback that's more significant necessarily in yields, but it does suggest that we'll have more of a neutral environment, and that's something, i think, that would be a positive influence on market sentiment surrounding equities. and then you see that sentiment shift in copper prices too more on a macro front. >> i mean, technically the bond -- what you're seeing in yields could indicate that the fed was finished and it could indicate that the highs on the ten-year are in? >> i think we can say pretty comfortably what they're in for

mow. the implications from my indicators are for nine months, right? so it doesn't mean that the secular uptrend that's been as asserted by yields will be reversing on this. i think it's more of a corrective move within that secular uptrend that we can trust is sort of in store for the market here. the last time we had setups like this is when we saw six months of consolidation. i think at a minimum, we're expecting something of that nature the, but we are still viewing it somewhat unfortunately as counter trend in the bigger secular uptrend in rates. >> so for nine months we could -- the highs could be in, but then we could still go to 6%, even higher? >> right. yeah, beyond the consolidation fees, we would look for yields to continue stair stepping higher. on the way down, so during the secular down trend, we saw counter trend moves that lasted at times up to two years. it's certainly not impossible for that to happen.

for now i think we can expect the sentiment around equities to at least improve in that environment, and if we see new highs, well then there's really no resistance. of course that's the definition of new highs to hold it back in terms of momentum. that's something i think folks would be -- >> stocks and equities. >> good, all right, katie. all right, a lot to -- a lot to digest there. some of it's positive. some of it's negative. that's good. see that's the shot i was looking for. that's the shot i was looking for. >> i have to think about that. >> well done, guys! you have pretty good -- you never had acting lessons, did you? >> you've worked with me for a while, there's a lot of things you have to -- yeah. ooh. >> when we come back, a wide ranging interview with congressman ro khanna. we'll get his reaction to the release of hostages from gaza, u.s./china relations, ai

regulation, and then we have former j.crew ceo and chairman of alex mill, mickey drexler, he will join us to talk holiday reilthe atof tta, ste he consumer, and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. electricity on the island. we always thought that whatever we did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como la que estamos viviendo ahora. es electricidad aquí es salud. icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot. i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened.

but because i have 23andme, i was aware of that gene. that saved my life. the power goes out and we still have wifi so to do our homework.ain. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem.

introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network. welcome back, everybody. new video of elon musk's visit to israel.

he and prime minister netanyahu touring an israeli kibbutz that was attacked by hamas on october 7th. musk was taken to the home of the community's security chief who was killed in a gunfight with the terrorists. meantime, there are reports that israel's ministry of communications reached an agreement in principle for using musk's starlink communications in the gaza strip. >> and here with us on set to discuss washington's agenda for the rest of the year, california congressman ro khanna. what are you back here for? >> i come to new york, every time i come to new york, i visit -- >> which we do appreciate. i thought -- i mean, the nbc tree's going to get lit pretty soon if you can hang out. >> that's spectacular. that's a family thing, i got to bring the family. >> it is. but you've got -- you have things to do in washington, and if so, what are they? what is going to happen? are we going to fund the budget? >> we've got to pass a budget. obviously we've passed this

continuing resolution to move us to january. i don't understand why we can't pass the budget mccarthy and biden agreed on. there's a funding bill, let's just vote on it. >> what do you make of the absolutely bizarre reaction in both sides of the republicans and democrats, to me just watching the situation in israel? i mean, i need -- i need some type of blueprint to get me to figure out how the sides decide on their positions. and i'm thinking about some members of the fringe democratic party. are you mortified at some of the comments you've seen from the squad, for example? >> let me say what my position is, which i think is a common sense position. on the one hand, you have to unequivocally condemn the brutal terrorist attacks on october 7th. and i met with some of the hostages' families, actually the young daughter abigail, the young girl who was released, i met with her aunt in my office. it was heartbreaking and i'm glad that she's finally been released. i thought israel had the right

to defend itself, but i do believe we're at a time now where israel has significantly deteriorated the hamas's capability. >> how do you know that, ro? how do you know that -- okay, if israel has right to exist -- do you believe israel has the -- >> the young hostage was released but her parents were killed. >> israel has the right to exist. >> yes. >> can it exist if hamas is not destroyed? if on that border at any time something like this can happen again? there's no society that should have that hanging over its head. so if it doesn't have a right to exist, fine. if it has a right to exist and defend itself, then they're not finished. they need to completely crush -- and they're not going to be able to because of this type of -- i don't know what you call it. the opinions are softening now because of the -- we're seeing horrific things happen, but in war horrific things do happen. >> here's the reality. there are 38,000 to 40,000 hamas fighters.

israel has killed by their own estimates 1,000 to 2,000, and there have been almost 12,000 civilian casualties. children, i mean, half of whom have been children. >> you remember that hamas are holding children in front of them shielding themselves. and they started this. they started this by slaughtering 1,400 people, ro. >> yes. i agree with you that hamas is in hospital -- >> what choices does israel have? >> if you look at the math and you actually are going to try to eliminate the 40,000 hamas fighters, you're talking about 2, 300,000 civilian casualties, 50% being children. i just don't think that is -- from a humanitarian perspective -- something we should do. what can we do? we ought to diminish the military capability, make sure -- and by the way, now they're going to have troops at the border, make sure there's no attack ever again like october 7th, which i don't think there will be given the northern gaza

military operation, and then have some negotiated peace, which doesn't involve hamas. i'm not saying the condition for negotiation of palestinian state should be the recognition of israel, and hamas right now does not recognize israel. i agree they're a terrorist organization. >> if you were iran and you were sort of the brains behind all of this, which a lot of people think, it's exactly playing right into what they knew would happen and how they've orchestrated this whole thing. what eventually happens with iran, ro? what do we do? can israel exist if iran gets the bomb, gets the nuclear bomb? how do we handle that? what's our duty as americans? >> i just voted for a bill saying that our american foreign policy should be to deny iran a nuclear weapon, and that passed overwhelmingly. so there's bipartisan consensus that american foreign policy should be to deny iran a weapon. my view is that the maximum

pressure campaign that trump tried didn't work, that iran is far closer to a nuclear weapon today than they were under president obama, but we need to figure out how we stop them from developing a nuclear weapon. i agree with you. >> does that mean a military strike if they're on the verge of it? >> no, i think a military strike today would be premature. it would get us into another war. one thing i think americans can agree with we don't want to estimate and be in the middle east again. we spent $6 trillion on that. >> how about something akin to when the trump administration -- what do you call it? you saw what happened to suleman, he was a revolutionary guard. nothing happened after that. is that too much? you don't need a full-on military strike to show that you mean business. >> i just -- i don't think that that would take out iran's nuclear weapons. this is not like iraq where israel had gone in -- >> we're not just talking about

that, we're talking about -- what are we up to now, how many attacks on u.s. interests from proxies in iran, we're up to about 80 or something, aren't we? or more. >> and we've defended ourself, president biden when -- >> hasn't stopped it though, right? >> i think we've got to be very clear. of course if there's an attack on american troops, american interests, we've got to respond, and i would support responding. but the last thing we want is to escalate this into a war. you and i -- we've talked about china, we can't take our eye off the ball of the threat there and get into -- >> we don't want a blue line syria situation. that was another -- do you think that wasn't effective in terms of dealing with syria during -- >> syria was a huge disaster, but i don't know if there could have been a good policy with assad. assad was a brutal dictator. he gassed his own people. i don't think we should have gotten into war in syria, and the question is then what could have presented assad? he's a horrible human being. >> can we shift gears and talk a

little bit about open ai and what's happening? >> this is like a foreign policy heavy discussion here. >> this is in your backyard, and it's roiled the valley. it's got everybody across the country paying attention and maybe around the globe too. what the heck happened? >> becky, actually, you asked the perfect question which is why don't we know what happened? to me, if there's one headline, it should be open ai's board should tell us what the concerns were. what we have speculated is it was this q plus product that they're developing, artificial general intelligence that can solve complex math problems, and some people were concerned that this really wouldn't just be artificial intelligence deducting patterns but actually computing things that could really cause safety concerns. we don't know. we should know. every journalist should demand that open ai's board tell us what the safety concerns were. >> we've talked about that because if this is something

that truly is a threat to humanity, in the past if it was manhattan project, that was run by the government. it was not private companies or public companies that were funding this stuff. now what? do you have real concerns about this? >> i do. i think there should actually be an ai agency in the federal government that is overseeing the development of this technology and licensing the technology where appropriate. i mean, i do have concerns about it, but at the very least, we should know what happened. i mean, if it's not a concern, if folks who like sam altman and others think it's not as big of a concern, then let the public know. let the public know what the issues were. there's been a secrecy and a lack of transparency that i find concerning. the other issue, which in my view is a bigger issue and hasn't gotten enough attention, is the wealth disparity this may cause. globalization has led to a situation where the 1% in this country control 30% of the wealth. bottom 50% have 2% of the

wealth. and you're going to have ai. all these companies are going to do well, what's going to happen to workers? what's going to happen to ordinary folks? >> concerned enough that you are going to demand that the board tell you from your congressional point of view on this, is there additional regulation that's coming? >> yes, no, i mean, i'm calling for it today, but maybe with congressional colleagues would write a letter or could take actions. i think it could be a hearing where we need to know what happened with the concerns of the open ai board of directors and they should be transparent about it. >> nobody is on either -- in either party is enthralled with what the choices are apparently going to be. i think that's safe to say. you would agree with that? >> i agree -- well, the president, but i agree -- >> well, that's where i'm going with this. so then if you do obviously with 70% even democratic disapproval for the president right now, and you look at the polls, you're counting on donald trump being so bad that joe biden gets

reelected. that's what democrats are counting -- have i got the strategy right? >> well, tit's also talking abot the president's record. people are upset, prices are high, rents are high. interest rates are high. the president has done a lot. infrastructure bill, the chips bill, the inflation reduction act. >> the bidenomics pitch doesn't work well. it's not working right now. with the world on fire, everything else going on in the world, that's why each week had he's setting new lows for approvals. with democrats too and with minorities and with young people. it's just ti-- i mean, it's jus not working, selling the bidenomics. >> i think anyone today who was president of the united states would have low approval ratings. for whatever reason this country is in a place -- >> you understand that this is joe biden at 81. he just had a birthday. you're comfortable with joe biden at 85 in the job as president? >> honestly i met with him probably a month ago.

if you see him, he keeps a 14-hour day. he is capable of doing the job. we can have an argument -- >> we don't know two, three years whether he is. >> life is unpredictable for anyone. >> we do know people do age and get to a certain point where they probably should not be president of the united states. >> joe, if you ask me -- >> are you comfortable with kamala harris a heartbeat away, vice president, a heartbeat away from that? >> yes, i am. look, here is the point. do i wish joe biden was 65, sure. but there's no perfect candidate. there never is. >> i think you're counting on trump being so bad, and i think the whole democratic party is. you look at the swing state, that might not be happening. that whole strategy might not be working. >> i'll tell you what we need, we neat a better -- >> we no bro joe. we need us. why do i have to -- i don't want the hard job. i want you to be on the top of the ticket. >> you got to have a woman -- you got to have a woman.

>> you'll be secretary of state. i'm pretty comfortable where i am. >> she's smart. >> i don't want to be at the top of the ticket. i want kamala's job. >> really, the vice president job? >> yeah, i want to relax. >> congressman, thank you. thanks for being in studio. >> appreciate it, enjoyed it. when we come back, we're going to talk some stocks to watch ahead of the open. later the recent leadership whirlwind at open ai has raised a lot of questions. that's right, we were just talking about it. talking about the company's governance structure, talking about what really happened. we've got open ai investor jeff louis who will join us to talk about what he thinks on all of this. the futures under a little bit of pressure. qu8 in.'s off by 3pots "sawk box" will be right back. '. enjoy richer, bolder flavors complete with velvet smooth crema. now brewing peet's coffee.

( ♪♪ ) we're still going for that nice catch. we're still going for that sweet shot. and with higher stroke risk from afib not caused by a heart valve problem, we're going for a better treatment than warfarin. eliquis. eliquis reduces stroke risk. and has less major bleeding. over 97% of eliquis patients did not experience a stroke. don't stop taking eliquis without talking to your doctor

as this may increase your risk of stroke. eliquis can cause serious and in rare cases fatal bleeding. don't take eliquis if you have an artificial heart valve or abnormal bleeding. while taking, you may bruise more easily or take longer for bleeding to stop. get help right away for unexpected bleeding, or unusual bruising. it may increase your bleeding risk if you take certain medicines. tell your doctor about all planned medical or dental procedures. the number one cardiologist-prescribed blood thinner. we're going for it. ask your doctor about eliquis. ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ♪ (when the day that) ♪ ♪ (lies ahead of me) ♪

♪ ( seems impossible to face) ♪ ♪ (a lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ ♪ (lovely day) ♪ a bank that knows your business grows your business. bmo. welcome back to "squawk box." i'm dominic chu. let's start off your cyber monday edition of morning moves with analyst calls getting some attention. we've got shares of mondelez up by roughly a percent or so, around 8000 shares of volume, helped in part by analysts at rbc capital markets who have upgraded the package food company behind snack brands like

oreo cookies, ritz crackers, halls cough drops to an outperform rating. the target price goes up to 83 bucks. it was 75. they like amongst other things the company's positive trends in revenue and profit margin growth as well as potential for future brand acquisition. m&a so to speak. those shares up 1%. next up you got shares of pinterest higher 3/4 of a percent. analysts at new street have initiated coverage of the image driven social media platform with a buy rating and a $48 price target, calling it their new top small to mid cap pick in internet stocks. they cited amongst other things, better operating income trends, because it's cyber monday, here's the premarket state of play. some of the names tied to consumer online purchasing, given some of the more optimistic estimates on cyber monday spending. you can see amazon shares up one-half of 1%. similar for etsy, ebay up a quarter of a percent, walmart up

2/10 of 1%. green for right now, we'll see if that trend continues for cyber monday. keep it right here, "squawk box" will be right back with much ea e after this commercial brk.

tnew this morning, the bide administration set to announce a number of measures in an effort to try and improve the nation's supply chains. the president is expected to launch a new white house counsel on supply chain resilience today using the event to announce new actions to improve access to medicines and shore up programs tied to the production and shipment of goods. among the 30 new actions, president biden will use the defense production act to have the health and human services department invest in the domestic manufacturing of needed medicines that are deemed crucial for national security. federal government also will be improving its ability to monitor supply chains through the sharing of data among agencies. it is cyber monday, and the shoppers are logging in to shop for the best deals. this year's black friday e-commerce spending was up by 7.5% from last year, hitting a record of $9.8 billion in the united states according to

adobe. joining us is mickey drexler, the former ceo of j crew and gap. mickey, you have done how many black fridays to this point in your career? >> you know, black friday was invented in philadelphia in the early '50s, and then went national. you would think someone would update it. probably i'm going to lie, 40, call it 50, whatever. >> 40 black fridays that you've seen. how do you think the consumer is faring this time versus what you've seen in the past? >> well, you know, i wasn't very involved in black fridays in a big way. i think it's a race to the bottom, black friday. and it trains consumers why not wait, and you know, this year it's longer than ever where people started early -- >> the discounts, you mean. >> yeah, the discounts started

early, and they're not buying regular priced goods, in my opinion, nine plus is 9 billion, is that it? i wonder how they get these numbers. >> i do too. the reason i cited adobe on that is i've seen salesforce numbers up 9%. it's kind of all over. >> and stores were up 1%, they said. >> right. >> but at the biggest discounts ever, 30 plus percent cuts into their margin, and that's frankly why i think that the discounters do so well. it's 365 every -- you know, every day they're on sale, and yes, they have some extra sales, but there's no credibility, and i do think it's a race to the bottom, and it's trained everyone in america, there's more black friday tv and marketing than i think almost christmas day and hanukkah day and all that.

>> the interesting thing is for a couple of years, we got away from it. during the pandemic when there was a shortage of goods, if we can get enough inventory, there weren't really that many discounts and that many sales. is this a sign of the consumer they're offering these discounts back to try and juice sales, or is this just a sign that they have inventories back in line with what they need, it's easier with the supply chain stuff to get these things in. >> you talking about during the pandemic or now? >> just now. how healthy is the american consumer right now? >> i don't think they are. again, i don't do surveys, and then people say inflation's under control, super markets, gasoline, restaurants, tvs. it's not under control. that's an unscientific opinion, but they're hurting too, and worried. the worry in the world now is

higher than i think it's been in a long time. >> what do you see at alex mill just in terms of the costs that you're dealing with, whether that's labor, whether that be the goods that you're getting here. whether that be shipping? how does inflation look from your bottom line? >> we don't take the huge markups, high percentage markups to accommodate sale goods and we -- yesterday, friday we had our email said this isn't just another friday to us because i've learned theintegrity aspect of not having markdowns, and so we're different, and i think our merchandise, we don't go on sale, but end of season clearance twice, and i want people -- and we had a good black friday, flat was good with full margin, and i don't think everyone wants to shop sale, and

but people assume lowest common denominator, and the other thing is a lot of them are saying 50 or 40 off the entire inventory, and that's like saying a 3 day old fish and you got 1 day old because everything's on sale, and the best sells out the first because, you know, they just lower everything. i never in the business would run, first of all, off everything. why take it off the best sellers, but it is what it is. >> what does that mean just in terms of the what you've seen from inflationary pressures? has inflation come down from what you are paying or not? >> i do surveys because i'm not a big shopper. >> no, i just mean what you guys are dealing with at alex mills? have your costs gone up? >> the costs are frayed. it's under control. >> okay. >> people say value is excellent, and we have nice goods, none of them are on sale

except twice a year, and i don't -- you know, i like good value. i've always done value, style, taste and quality, so i'm always afraid of raising prices, but i'm too conservatative in that. >> what -- what do you anticipate as we look through -- it was pointed out last week that this is the longest period you have from black friday or from thanksgiving through to christmas, it's 31 days. that's the longest that you get. >> it's one day more, which is significant. i don't think people are going to run out now and shop because, again, this is 40, 50 years of training them to be a sales shopper. and it's all about product. i always say that. we ran this weekend an email which is all about special hand done product. and it was kind of -- it's going to happen next friday.

but i think they're going to wait. why not. i think the economy is tough as you said, and the world's not in great shape. i don't want to be negative. but you know, realistic. >> does that make you not load up with as much inventory if you're worried about where things landed. >> 100%. last year we had a plan was not smart. we were over planning. we had tons of inventory so we -- we leaned it down. we have a conservative plan. i always like to run out of goods, and that's the most profitable business you have. >> mickey, i want to thank you very much for coming in today. >> thank you. >> mickey drexler. >> coming up, bedrock founder and open ai investor geoff lewis joins us in just a few minute, and be sure to follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast app and listen anytime. "squawk box" will be right back.

something amazing is happening here. climate researchers are weathering a data storm. that's because cdw transformed their devices and infrastructure with lenovo thinkpads and powerful edge to cloud solutions, delivering faster insights and increased performance, giving them the scale to stay ready for whatever's next. make amazing happen. lenovo and cdw.

my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene and i think you need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving.

new to the holiday weekend box office, lions gate hunger game prequel brought in $45 million over the five-day period. apple's r rated war epic napoleon brought in 32.5 348ds

million million dollars, and that beat expectations. and disney's animated feature "wish" fell in short of expectations bringing in $31.7 million over its first five days in theaters. analysts were expecting an opening of 45 to $55 million. when we come back, open ai moving forward with a planned share sale despite some turmoil in leadership. we will speak to open ai investor geoff lewis about the company's power struggle and its valuation. by the way, check out the futures this morning, dow futures off by just over 50 points. s&p futures down by 9, the nasdaq down by 25. "squawk box" will be right back.

rylee! from rylee's realty! hi! this listing sounds incredible. let's check it out. says here it gets plenty of light. and this must be the ocean view? of aruba? huh. this listing is misleading. well, when at&t says we give businesses get our best deal, on the iphone 15 pro made with titanium. we mean it. amazing. all my agents want it. says here...“inviting pool”. come on over! too inviting. only at&t gives businesses our best deals on any iphone. get iphone 15 pro on us. (♪♪)

you want to be able to provide your child get iphone 15 pro on us. with the tools or resources they need. with reliable internet at home, through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪

open ai sticking with its planned employee stock sale which had been planned before ceo sam altman was fired ten days ago and then his subsequent return last week. the sale was expected to value the company at $86 billion. it will be the first test of investor appetite in open ai following the boardroom battle, company was last valued at $29 billion after microsoft committed to invest $10 billion in the company at the start of this year. so quite a jump already. the recent leadership whirlwind at open ai has raised questions about the company's government

structure. and joining us now is an early investor in open ai, geoff lewis, founder and managing partner of bedrock capital, which invested in open ai a year and a half before the company released chap gpt. geoff, it's a big question -- it's a big question about -- and i guess we should have -- we should have thought about this same question with biotechnology, once we sequenced the genome, we should have thought i wonder if we need not for profit here. maybe we should have thought the same thing about social media given that that cat is out of the bag or that toothpaste is out of the tube, and there's been some harm from that. but can you really do that. can you really commercialize something as quickly as we need to do it because of all the benefits that we could get. can you do that with a not for profit structure? >> you know, it's a great question, joe. i think open ai has experimented with something really unique. i'd expect them to continue to

innovate on the structure now with this exceptional transitional board that they've put in place, chaired by, of course, brett taylor whose reputation in silicon valley is just 11 out of 10, just phenomenally respected person sharing the board. i imagine that him and sam and larry summers and adam deangelo and the rest of the board are going to think carefully about how to restructure this. i generally have a view that you can't look at all these technologies as the same. social media, one could make an argument that perhaps that has been in some way net bad for society, you know, versus something like i'd say an amazon, e-commerce, clearly not good, so i don't think you can paint all of these breakthroughs with the same brush. >> i agree with you, but i just am trying to figure out whether either you go as quickly as you can to develop these things, and

that's what we do as humans, and the best way is a capitalist structure where there's accountability and that involves a profit incentive. it's not going to go as quickly with the not for profit, but for example, and i use biotechnology again. there was a way that biotechnology -- and i don't know whether you want to tie the covid outbreak or the pandemic to something that happened in a lab, maybe not -- but certainly there was the potential to destroy all of humanity with biotechnology. i don't know if open ai has that same capability. some people think that it does. but to commercialize it, you just got to -- it's almost like you got to do everything first and then reqask questions later. is that the right way to do it? >> i don't think that's what they're doing at all. i think they're asking very important questions along the way. i mean, just let's talk biotechnology, joe. i want to say one thing about sam altman who's an entrepreneur i've known for 12 years.

you know as well as i do, joe, that a lot of these very senior leaders in business, you know, tend to be -- we might call them sociopathics. some could be maybe borderline arguably, psychopathic. sam is the opposite of this. sam is one of the most brilliant but also kind-hearted, warm-hearted people i know and led a team asking all of these hard questions. every hard question they could think of along the way. you saw this with the vote of confidence from the team after the failed sabotage exercise at gamestop. 700 less than 800 employees signsign ing a petition to bring sam back. they are asking the tough questions. talk about biotech. i argue one of the things that went very wrong, very wrong, preceding the covid pandemic, and years leading up to be covid pandemic, the ways in which the u.s. was collaborating with china on "gain a function

research." i don't know if you went down the rabbit hole here, joe, but the u.s. was collaborating with china in shocking ways on gaining a function research. we can debate what happened there but that collaboration certainly i don't think served us very well. reality with a.i. is, if the u.s. does not get there, does not win on a.i., the emerging china alliance, the china, russia, iran, north korea alliance, they're going to get there. this is not a question of, oh, should we go too slow, nonprofit? this is an existential question for the rest of the world, joe. >> and make the same argument even with biotech and weaponizing biotech. we don't do it, someone else -- takes us no another very bad place i think, geoff, but the reality of the world. >> geoff, ro khanna was here and is concerned.

what's to know what the board saw, made them decide to fire sam altman to begin with. what the real concerns were behind the scenes. safety issues? something we don't know? he suggested that he might even try to hold hearings to bring the board forth and make them xp explain what they saw, what concerned them. is that a problem as an investors? >> i'm all for it. i think this was a classic human power struggle. nothing more. nothing less. i think the right set of questions to be asking, becky, quite frankly, might be very different. who exactly were the folks on the board? seems like a lovely, a lovely human being. was she, ccphn? i'd like to know 9 answer to that question. >> a what? >> agent of the chinese communist party. ryde like to know thes on to that question. >> you must be -- a week ago you were faced with a situation

investment in made in openai almost went to zero. fired sam altman pshgs microsoft said they would hire sam altman and anybody else from the team who wanted to come along. that would have put your investment to zero. what were you thinking? what went through your head through all this? >> one of the motives i live by, becky, simple but ancient. enjoy the life. you have to enjoy the life. >> come on. tell me you were actually thinking? you could not have been that calm. the rest of us watches, what's going on? we didn't have money on the line. what were you thinking? >> thinking in real estate number one rule everyone knows it. location, location, location. in technology investing, the number one rule? entrepreneur, entrepreneur, entrepreneur. i believed in sam for, you know, since i was a young man. i continue to believe in sam.

and i have confidence that sam in that extraordinary team would figure something out. some anyone -- >> saved your investment? >> tremendous amount of levity over that period of time. feeling just fine. >> what happens if they went to microsoft, though? you would no longer be involved? >> we can't run a thought on experiences that never happened. so -- >> there were reports at the time investors were considering suing if that's has the. were you one of those investors? >> i can't comment on reports. certainly i don't speak to the media other than you folks and "squawk box." >> tell us. would you have sued if they walked out the door and microsoft kind of -- >> taken a serious look what that board was up to and who those specific individuals on the board were and what their incentives were, would have taken a very specific, very detailed look at what exactly was going on there and whether it was -- what exactly was

happening. certainly a set of claims to explore. >> geoff, any concerns about the safety of this? because i think that's the one issue where washington gets involved. other people pay attention to that, too. do you have concerns about the safety of a.i.? how do you know we control it the right way? i und your concerns about making sure we get there first. >> of course, i have concerns. concerns getting on a plane. concerns about crossing the street. i have concerns about logging into a social media account. someone's going to hack in. lots of concern es. the way this team and sam in particular has gotten ahead of these concerns has done a world tour meeting with global world leaders around the world to discuss how we need to regulate this, think about this technology. the other side of these concerns i do think it's going to look very much like a industrial revolution on a scale never seen before. i think that the base case is a future in which there's almost

unimaginable abundance for humanity. yes, i'm concerned. but every breakthrough, becky, we had in society comes with concerns. comes with risks. that's the way the world moves forward. >> so -- just reading an article, geoff, says idea of just totally -- rejecting the not-for-profit model which would be different. it looks like, you know, everyone is embracing that. we need to just say, that's not what we've got to do here. this is a commercial enterprise. we need to go forward. >> i don't know that that's the case at all. i'm not privy to the board room conversations. i think they are going through an exercise. i think a lot of these reports that have come out, frankly i don't know who the crazy leakers are but ought to be lynched. a lot of these reports are false. i'd say the board really does need to go through an exercise of, what is the right structure here for the long term? i have confidence with taylor at

helm they're do that. >> it is good to know the people you're talking about and at some point just put trust in those individuals. they're not all the sociopaths and psychopath us know in your business out there. send me a list of those guys. i think i want to invest in some of them if i could. >> often very talented. >> oh, i know. i know. they don't let conscious -- conscious gets in the way in a lot of things. anyway, thanks, geoff. see ya later. >> my pleasure. when we come back, joining us with his take on markets for the trading week ahead. that's next. plus ceo of priceline on holiday travel trends and sprtrength of the croomer. "squawk box" will be right back.

only sleep number smart beds let you each choose your individual firmness and comfort. your sleep number setting. and actively cools and warms up to 13 degrees on either side. and now, save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed, plus free home delivery when you add an adjustable base.

ends cyber monday. only at sleep number my mom's life is the most important thing to me. hi mom! i called my mom, "i have this gene and i think you need to get tested." she feels like it was truly lifesaving.

good morning. welcome to the final week of november. major averages on track for a positive month. all on four-week winning streaks. cyber monday sales in full swing. get you up to date on the latest spending data, including the numbers from a record black friday. and speaking of black

friday, it was the nfl's post-thanksgiving matchup, was it a success for advertisering? talked about that last week. all that and more as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and become wack to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is out today. what's happening with markets. eck kwi future weaker now dow futures down 46. s&p off bein 8, nasdaq off by 18. treasurertry yields lower this morning. take a look. ten year now at 4.46%. two year below 5%. 4.9%. energy prices so far are down as

well. down by about 50 cents on crude. right at $75 a barrel. talking more about crude oil with rbcs helena croft later in the hour. gold prices hit a six-month high this morning. void by a weaker dollar. about $2,000 now. $2,014. among the day's top business stories it is cyber monday. deals in full swing around the internet. we're learning americans did, in fact, open up their wallets on black friday. adobe analytics say ecommerce spending jumped 7.5% from last year to a record 9.8 billion dollars. more than half came from mobile shopping. and buy now pay later also proved popular with consumers. adobe saying that jumped 47% year over year. 47. affirm, one of the biggest players in that sector. stock gaining in pre-market this morning. up almost 4.5%.

4.25%. and elon musk. he's visiting israel when alongside prime minister benjamin netanyahu he toured an area attacked by hamas last month. musk also visited homes of some victims of last month's violence. scheduled to meet with israel's president and the country's former defense minister. this as he is facing criticism amplifying what people say wa anti-semitic posted on his platform x. big-time advertisers suspended accounts on x and israeli communications reaching a deal in principle with musk space-based economy starlake and terminals able to be used in israel and the gaza strip but only with approval of the

government. looking at four weeks in a row seeing gains for major averages. over to mike santoli with more. >> good morning. a breather after that four-week spring. the s&p 500 also now again above 20% year to date on total return basis, if you consider dividends. also challenging the highs as you see just about 1% below chchai chai -- days from july. spread between where the index is a and that 50-day intermediate-term average, similar to where we were stretched above in june continue to be higher from there. interesting, the average curling higher show shoulding some repair to the trend after that three-month correction that we did go through. look at the spread between the largest stocks and smallest. a big story. people focusing on russell 2000. this is the microcap index. even smaller than russell 2000

along with top 50, largest 50 stocks in the market. a two-year chart. all one market until the sbv prices in march. financial conditions tightened. people migrated into the biggest stocks. you see a comeback among the microcaps. that's take us back to springtime lows. a lot of room for closing of this gap in one fashion or another later in the year and later into january. famous often discarded stocks, smallest sold for tax purposes come back. you can see this narrow a little and not have anything change about the overall leadership pro profile. volatility quiet. look at this. down below 13 at a close on friday. just nosing above that. a typical thing an a weekend. keep in mind also the market was closed for five and a half of the last nine days. that quiets things down. too low?

a question. scraping where we were first part of this year. i would say in a bull market, a quiet uptrend like 2019, migrates from 11 or 12 up to 20. a different range when trends versus agitated coming out of that bear market of last year, becky. >> mike, and on with us earlier, a guest actually said his base case is that something breaks in the next three months. doesn't know if it's commercial real estate prices, bad loans, consumer debt. something somewhere. he thinks breaks in the next three months. i was surprised. thought it was a possibility he was considering. he said, his baseline. >> yeah. baseline on a three-month window is tough. you have to start to see some of the smoke before the fire, i think. you're not seeing it in general credit conditions. obviously commercial real estate suffering a while but you have to wonder what the trigger point migrating into other parts of the market. in general what the market's

worried about. especially latter part of the summer into the fall, which is, can we really get away with 5 percentage points of fed rate hikes over the course of a year? and not have it create some kind of more stress in the system? that's going to hit the markets and the economy. i mean, obviously, jury's out, but hard to see that yet. >> thank you, mike santoli. joining us for more on the market, we bring in chief economic advisor and president of queens college of cambridge university. ho hoem mohamed el-erian. what do you think? >> haven't adjusted to rates. he stated real estate. i point out calwall were of

materials and 2025, refinancing. a risk but not the base case it would happen in the next three months. >> i think also overlaid with that geopolitical risks around the globe right now. i think that's part of what has him thinking this is something that could, we could wake up any morning and have a bigger surprise? >> i think what makes people uncomfortable, becky, is that consensus forecasts coming into 2023 was quite negative. lots of people predicting a recession. no one saw the geopolitical developments we've had. so had they seen the geopolitical developments ts it would have been more negative. in reality -- >> right. >> more wrong. in reality, done really well. i think upside surprise has led people to be overly optimistic about next year. not saying baseline will be massive financial accident he's talking about, but i do think consensus forecasts right now is

too optimistic about the global economy. >> what concerns you the most, mohamed? is it demand factors from china or other places? or something else that really worries you? >> so look why november has been so great. we've had this very unique alignment of four things. goldilocks data for the economy. lower oil prices. lower yields, and lots of money to be put to work. that is a unique alignment that has proven incredibly powerful. it showed nasdaq up 11%. dow up 7%. s&p up 9% in november alone. so if you look at that alignment and ask, how long will it continue? three of these factors are facing headwinds. one, goldilocks data is unlikely to persist. two, the yields are going to face significant debt options

where the buyers are in question at these levels, and, thirdly, i don't think opec plus will stay quiet to see oil prices where they are now. so that is why you've got to keep an eye on this. november has absolutely been exceptional and really shown bottom line for investors, but going forward three of the four things that have powered us have a lot more headwinds. >> you think stocks have gotten too expensive? >> i think we've seen the major gains, the next few months, i'm not talking major sell-offs, to be clear. not consolidating at these levels until there's clarity on the things mentioned. there's still a lot of money to be put to work. that's a real positive here. >> money waiting on sidelines anytime there is a pullback? >> correct. you'll see it also on fixed income. an extension trade in maturity

that hasn't yet happened, because yields came down so quickly. so we're not talking about major sell-offs here. just talking about not repeating what has been an exceptional november. >> okay. mohamed, all in all, though, you don't sound like you're too worried about things? you sound like, okay. maybe not as strong as it's been but not thinking a massive s sell-off necessarily? >> consensus is too optimistic about the glow global economy next year and talk about europe, china, et cetera but i don't see a major global eserecession. consensus has gotten carried away after being so wrong in 2023 in terms of the global economy. >> back to opec quickly's you think opec is going to act to try and shore up oil prices. why do you think that they had

this -- this pause on the meeting supposed to happen last week and now scheduled for later this week? a lot of people saying because they couldn't get consensus on what to do. do you think it's something else? >> no. i think they don't want to be the swing producer. not the one that always absorbs the cuts, when there's, when need be. so they've done it, but i don't think they want to be portrayed as the reliable swing producer and they want others, other producers, to also take some cuts. saudi has a major -- it could remove its cuts and then others would suffer even more. what saudi arabia is looking for is for others to participate in cuts, and for it not to carry the burden on its own. >> yeah. mohamed, thank you. always a pleasure. >> thank you, becky. coming up, crude oil on its longest weekly losing streak in nearly two years.

ahead of a big opec meeting, it was delayed now set for this week. we're going to talk current market dynamics of rbc's helena croft. was the nfl black friday experiment a success for advertisers? up next talking about takeaways from the dolphins/jets game, which we were nice enough to bring up with mohamed. stay tuned. you're watching "sawbo oquk x"n cnbc. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. go deeper with thinkorswim: our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk, our team of passionate traders who live and breathe trading.

and sharpen your skills with an immersive online education crafted just for traders. all so you can trade brilliantly.

that right there. a live look at the amazon fulfillment center in robbinsville. no idea where there is. robbinsville, in of. oh. okay. just east of trenton, which is nowhere near us. it's south. right? three days ago -- right? kevin? amazon streamed -- why you're here. for a lot of things, kevin. first nfl first-ever black friday game giving advertise egg a unique opportunity to make the case. who won the battle? kevin, edo inc. president and ceo. talked ak this. i watched the game and didn't notice myself any difference in

what i was supposeds to be doing. involved qr codes, measuring what i was thinking and doing? >> a lot of qr codes. >> yes. >> a lot more retay ads that are normal for amazon's first black friday nfl broadcast. saw more credit card ads. so the usual contingent of automakers in the game. so an interesting mix. a lot of what amazon was experimenting with was at the beginning and pregame where they did innovative things. had one of their talents, ryan fitzpatrick, harvard man and a great nfl quarterback, he had to hit a certain number of passes to unlock a 30% discount on this lego/harry potter castle and did it, of course. and those kinds of i think things that really marked a different kind of broadcast. pretty game. once the game got started it's still an nfl game on black

friday. >> which i'll take. >> yes. all this aside. >> i don't know. it's a whole different issue on what the jets need to do at this point. what day did we have in terms of how -- have you collated anything? >> yeah. first of all, despite matchups, i'd say despite a lot of star power on the thursday, thanksgiving day games and black friday, the matchups themselves weren't that exciting at this point. there were blowouts. that usually depresses both the number of people watchingened a the engagement with both the programming and with the ads, in the programs. we had, it's still thanksgiving. nfl still owns thanksgiving. now they own black friday, too. when people have nfl as an option, they do show up in big numbers. ratings were quite good for nielsen and then edds showed ad performance quite strong. interesting shift in mix of

advertisers when it comes to thanksgiving, because you've got automakers kicking often holiday sales events. got retailers obviously kicking off their big push for black friday, cyber monday and beyond and the difference, the thing we saw last year was that, if you were a retailer advertising in that thanksgiving day set of games, you saw a 314% lift in the engagement with your ads for not just that day but for the week following. >> hmm. >> than you did prior weeks. leading up to t. expensive but worth it. >> expensive. worth it. coincides with consumer need and demand. right? consumers are getting very much into the mind-set of holiday shopping and retailers are rightly responded ed ed to that interesting trend i saw this we're, fascinating. the number of ads focusing heavily on big discount messages. consumers responded aggressively to the ads. saw higher spikes in engagement

with those ads than typically seen for those promotional stories in the past. that kind of response i think says something about what the retailers understand about their consumers. whether it's walmart, had a clever strategy. of course, amazon. blanketed black friday. target heavily exposed on thursday, thanksgiving day games. old navy did innovative things. some of the interesting things i saw. >> we had the head of sports here friday and the reported number is $100 million. that's what amazon paid the nfl to have a black friday game. first time since 1962 or '63. how come it wasn't there before? seems like a no-brainer to put that there? the idea it would take somebody paying them? because if you build it, they will come? >> right. a synergistic relationship between the nfl and amazon. amazon prime video. i think amazon is showing the nfl a new thing. i think the nfl is willing to

try new thing wis new partners like amazon in ways that traditionally in the past they weren't. so i think that's, fascinating it took this long to get here. make as ton of sense tmplts wasn't the nfl. afl. how far back this goes, into the '60s. samed like a no-brainer. okay, yeah. you'll control one more day of that thanksgiving holiday. >> right. and i'd say college football and nba both typically would want to be competitors on that day, and the nfl crowded its way in and with a big partner like amazon. >> there where good college games on, too. >> there were. >> i don't know why, a lot of them. >> a lot of rivalries. >> so many more games for me to lose. like a whole new, stable -- >> ohio? >> i did have michigan in the over. >> hmm. >> i did. like the only one i won. gm's not going to advertise at

the super bowl. can you figure that out? that is a commentary over at gm. more than whether it's still good to -- it's expensive. >> i think it's right. often a commentary about where the automaker is financially. where their product lineup is and whether they have a new model to launch. the best thing to do with the super bowl if you're an automaker, launch a hot, new vehicle. that works incredibly well. especially if you bring a creative idea, creative story to the game. if you don't have that, it can often be a very expensive exercise in pure brand, and those stories, you can tell them in less expensive places. nfl playoff ares, for example. not nearly as expensive. also very high-performing. you've got the college football playoffs and the college football national championship. all around the same time of year. all very strong. don't necessarily have to go with the full expense of the super bowl. >> as far as the nfl goes,

they've been kind of, uk wa wal that line. there's still more product to put somewhere. who's in charge of that? goodell? you must know? >> the committee and -- goodell -- >> kraft, too. >> done a good job so far. can still squeeze. it's insatiable demand for that product. can you flood it too much? over do it? >> i'm sure the nfl is being very careful and thoughtful about that. almost the most savvy of league in terms of media exposure and the way they developed it a national media brand and other brands were regional in the way they -- >> and it's in frankford. >> very deliberate. england -- >> fanatic fans over in europe. >> yeah. one to watch on this front is apple. apple tv+ has been dipping its toes into the water with its major league soccer rights deal,

and they're putting ads in those, video advertising in those games. so that's just the beginning of this, my prediction, for apple tv+. it makes sense that apped tv pluss wtv -- apple tv+ would add a lower tier to justify increases put on consumers for apple tv plus, just went to $9 -- >> advertisers love that, too. right? no trouble selling ads and how much would it cost a month, for the lower -- >> i mean, my apple tv+ subscription went from $5.99 to $9.99 a month. i think go $5.99 dip toe low around find a price-sensitive consumer in you're apple. >> overall advertising, recession's over? >> interesting. we saw a real, i call it a bit of a freak-out in ad investment

end of last year where i think the corporate budget, because of interest rates going up, had been pinched. first thing to get put on the potential block is advertising spent. but then we hit the new year. consumer was strong. advertisers followed all years since. we didn't really see much of a dip. a definite shifting of dollars going from traditional and tv over to streaming, ad-supported tv, but those makes winners and losers. overall, ad spend has been strong. >> okay. that's good. best thing i've heard today because we need that. don't we? it matters to us. in this business. kevin, thank you. >> thank you. when we come kcome back, th of priceline joins us follow one of the busiest travel seasons of the year. what worked? what didn't? and what can we expect during the christmas rush. reminder heading to a break, get

the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow squawk pod and listen anytim > 'lbeig bk. . ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

i would say that we're closer than the average mother daughter. hi mom! if i lost my mom.... i can't think about that for too long. i was like, "whoa, mom, i have this gene!" kenzie's test and me being able to find out that i was brca positive was lifesaving. the holidays wouldn't be worth celebrating without my family.

welcome back to "squawk box." futures about what we've seen most of thor morning session. kind of a, just a little bit of a drift lower so far. the s&p down about 5.

tiktok and byte dance cutting hundreds of jobs in its video game division. marks a significant retreat from that segment that spent billions of dollars trying to challenge market leader tennyson. this is all according a person familiar with the matter. a bytedance spokesperson says they regularly make adjustments to center on its long-term strategic growth areas. coming up, a critical week for the oil market. opec leaders expected to meet in an unexpected delay of a meeting last week, if you recall, did pressure oil prices. low 70s. asking rbc about potential wild cards and what we should watch heading to break. another retail mover on this cyber monday. deutsche bank flanking and impressive black friday for that

company and those shares up 4%. shopify, year over year growth in growth merchandizing coming in ahead of estimates. deutsche bank suggesting upside of fourth quarter earnings. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack! as cyber criminals expand their toolkit, we must expand as well. we need to rethink... next level moments, need the next level network. [speaker continues in the background] the network with 24/7 built-in security. chip? at&t business.

welcome back to "squawk box." right here on cnbc. check out the futures this morning. still in the red. dow futures af by about 50 points. s&p futures down by 5. nasdaq off by 6. seen four weeks of gains for all four major averages. treasury yields lower. ten year 4.4. two year is at 4. 9%. shares of wireless operator crown castle, i guarantee you wiring in those towers. i guarantee you that that is -- >> somewhere in there. >> that's crap. gaining -- >> not wires to the towers from the phone. you know? cordless? >> ah -- ah -- oh. oh, okay. yeah. okay. i got it. gaining of pre-market activist

built a stake more than $2 billion in the company. elliott release add letter to the board saying it wants to push for changes to increase performance and boost the stock price. lawyers for ex finance ceo allowing him to return to his home in the united arab emirates until sentenced for violating anti-money laundering rules. asked the judge to return to his home because the u.s. does not have an extradition treaty with the ueae. his laallowing to return home wo prepare him for sentencing. technically they could sentence him up to 10 jyears. more than 18 months he has a

right to go back and challenge all of the agreement originally agreed to. crude oil down about 8% this month. hit particularly hard last wednesday when news broke that an important opec meeting would be delayed to this week. things recovered after that, but prices are off again this morning. 7515 the latest tick for wti. helena croft is rbc the global head of strategy and a cnbc contributor. you have thoughts on why this meeting was delayed and maybe what happens behind the scenes. what went wrong? >> i mean, becky, unfinished business from last summer. there are two african opec countries, angola, nigeria, actually seeking larger production base lines for next year. they got a mega deal done in june. allowed to increase next year but squared books reducing baselines. basically taking quotas lower for the underperforming african

countries. two of those countries are saying, look, we want the opportunity to produce more next year. they have to square the books before they can address the issue of, is there going to be a deeper cut? are they going to go on to extend unilateral cuts by saudi arabia and russia into next year? again, some uncertainty about when we're going to get this sort of agreement with the african nations and they can move on to the bigger issues at play. >> the most likely scenario given the right to produce what they weren't producing before? or -- what does that mean overall? the cuts aren't at deep next year? >> i think they're going to find some way to appease, particularly a country like nigeria. it's been in opec decades. don't want a falling out with the producer group. maybe basically say, we can see what you can do next year. we can re-assess this later. i think find some type of solution. angola always a trickier member

of opec. newer member. plenty of meetings in the middle of the night the delegation walks out. can you get angola across the finish line? but they're not a huge producer and not as much at stake with a country like angola. they want a happy group photo but not that material in angola goes on its own way. i expect them to fig it out this week. and united states produced more than it ever has in history and potentially a lack of demand from china right now. weaker demand than anticipated's does that weaken opec's hands significantly? >> raises pressure on opec and in the sense of, if you have a situation where you have non-opec growing, not just the u.s. also brazil had a very good year

for production growth. are you cutting production to give them room to grow? i don't anticipate saudi arabia will throw in the towel and do what they did in 2015, saying let's see where prices land. not supporting the price. it's a tougher call out in in terms how much support do you want to give this market, if it's allows countries like the united states to grow? another really important position, becky from a policy standpoint from washington is, iranian exports have grown this year. they have grown significantly. so is the biden administration going to come under increasing pressure to tighten iran sanctions? out basically saying tougher enof coursement, but what are the iran numbers going to actually look like? a are have important part for next year in terms of market balances. >> yeah. i mean -- it just -- every time they say they're going to cut production, it just means somebody else wins more market share. they're going to keep taking it for them.

i would think that would get really frustrating, particularly if saudis were the ones doing the bulk of this. >> certainly -- i think they certainly want greater burden sharing across all of opec. again, i do think if they're the deeper cut on the they're looking for other groups to chip in. i think it is going to be interesting to see what happens next year with iran, because they did see significant growth this year, and the question is, is there going to be an effort to tighten up those sanctions? you're absolutely right, becky. the question, though, for opec is, if you were to go back to a market share war, where would prices land? i don't think they want to get in a situation where they totally lose control of the market again like 2015. not looked on particularly well amongst opec producers what happened that year. >> with iranian sanctions, be clear. the united states said, okay. we have sanctions, but the basically been acknowledged that they're going to continue to allow the oil to be sold

elsewhere, because they don't want the united states, politicians don't want oil prices going up either. it ticks off voters to be paying more at the pump. especially in an election year. >> a great question. you are seeing action from the united states congress tightening sanctions up. you had broad bipartisan support for a bill just passed house of representatives not only would mandate stricter enforcement, also target foreign ports that are taking iranian. you're seeing new pressure from congress to tighten up sanctions because se eassentially saying are they the bank for groups like hamas. there is pressure from political to potentially force the administration's hand in terms of sanctions enforcement. we don't know the degree of support of the white house from this. tightening them up. the question, will we see the full 700,000 off the market? how much do we see of rigorous

enforcement from the administration? they don't warrant prior prices or allowing iran a free hand across the middle east causing so much turmoil. >> thank you. great to see you. >> thank you. when we come back, talking thanksgiving travel take aways and a look ahead to next month's holiday demand. the ceo of priceline joins us live. reminder for you, too, heading to a break. you can watch or listen using the cnbc app. stay tuned. we are live from times square at the nasdaq market site. the mercedes-benz holiday love celebration is here. come in now for the exceptional offers you're bound to love, now, through january 2nd.

(carolers) ♪ iphone 15 pro, your husband deserves it! ♪ (mom) carolers? to tell me you want a new iphone? a better plan is verizon. (dad) no way they'd take this wreck. (carolers) ♪ yes, they will, in any condition. ♪ ♪ get iphone 15 pro and ipad and apple watch - all on them! ♪ (mom) please forgive him. (carolers) ♪ it's all good - just a little awkward. ♪ (soloist) think we'll wrap this up. (vo) for a limited time, turn any iphone in any condition into a new iphone 15 pro with titanium and ipad and apple watch se - all on us. that's up to $1700 in value. only on verizon. when you think of investment risk, do you consider climate risk? changing weather patterns are impacting the way we live and the value of businesses large and small. this can mean disruption to supply chains, changing demand for products and shifting regulation. what does this mean for your business, your clients, and your investments? ice offers data and markets that can provide critical insight.

manage your climate risk with ice.

welcome back to "squawk box." major averages on four-week winning streaks. dow longest since april. this morning as you can see futures, ah, kind of mixed on the session so far. down 50 points on the dow. 17 on nasdaq. and you can see s&p off about 6 and change. it is cyber monday. adobe out with new projections. the company saying it thinks consumers will spend between $12 billion and $12.4 billion online today. that doesn't mean shoppers are looking for deals on televisions and vacuum cleaners, scouring travel websites looking for the best bargains. joining us to talk about the state of travel heading into the end of the year rush is brett keller. ceo of priceline.

this is "the" busiest time of the year. a lot of people probably going back today. already, though, people are looking for deals on their next trip? >> yeah. absolutely. it was a very busy weekend. look at travel data from the tsa checkpoints. we saw demand on average for airline tickets, for traffic flow through airports up 10% year on year almost every day the last ten days. very healthy through thanksgiving. looking forward to christmas and new year's, demand continues to be strong. especially in the peak travel periods. that's why you see so much active sales driving people into the holidays and well into next year. so we can have a kind of rich ramp leading into 2024. >> tomorrow is travel tuesday. never even heard of that before. what is it? >> well, i think it's really the travel industry's plea to say, hey, you've shopped for black friday and cyber monday. go a little longer and look for

activities and events. really we almost don't need that day. such a strong weekend. typically consumers are not only looking for physical goods now more and more prioritizing travel experiences. we have had a rich booking period up to today and think it will extend into travel tuesday tomorrow giving consumers opportunities for deep breaks on travel. a number of great offers are out there. >> is next year still going to be a rear of revenge travel? have people gotten their "fix" in firms of traveling after the pandemic? >> well, what we're seeing i think is consumers have satisfied the need to really get out there at all times. i think what we're seeing now is falling back into a typical travel pattern where consumers are taking days off through the holiday periods and when they typically have school outs et

cetera with an opportunity to travel, but what's nice now is with work from home and with some flex days, consumers are spreading that out a little more, and taking advantage of some of the off-peak periods. seeing good, healthy demand. wouldn't call it revenge travel anymore, though. >> in may we spoke with you and said you hadn't seen a letup in that. what's different? people aren't traveling anytime all over the place? how much would you say demand has dropped? >> i think demand is still nice and healthy. what we saw, though, coming out of the pandemic was really an acceleration of demand as consumers tried to catch up. so we moved through a very, very busy summer. eshe sphe pecially outbound to predominantly. now going to typical destinations like florida, like cancun, mexico, hawaii. u.s. consumers typically are traveling in the holiday period there. i think very good, solid demand

especially moving into the early part of 2024. but we are seeing softer periods obviously in the shoulders. a lot of airlines announced earnings recently and commented that holiday demand looks great, shoulder periods returning to some normal cyclicality in travel demand. >> is there a reluctreluctance? are u.s. consumers less likely to travel overseas because of the world situation? >> normally returns quickly. healthy demand traveling to europe and asia. those markets remain healthy. worldwide across bookings holdings in our brands including booking.com travel demand is healthy and strong. >> priceline has an a.i. platform. called penny. what does penny do? >> pensy a chatbot, and as a chatbot what penny does, as you

move through our booking experience penny can answer any complicated questions that come up as you move through travel. for example, you're at the point of booking. you want to know if you can apply a coupon to your reservation. you can ask penny. any available coupons? m penny comes back, the awe the coupon and applies it. ask about pet policies, cancellation policies. with this tool you can get answers quickly that historically were a little more challenging to find and uncover as youhood tro read through documentation or details to get that these very sophisticated questions and answers. >> basically a little better pointing you to the prompts ahead of time? not like penny is going to plan my next vacation for me? >> actually, no. penny can do a lot of different things. both upper funnel. she can help plan and outline trips and itineraries for you. even post purchase with customer

care and services. all parts of the funnel this tool is quite active helps you accomplish travel needs. >> as a result do you need to hire fewer customer service helpers? >> at the moment, no. the future? certainly a possibility, because a lot of the first-line questions, which are not that n complicated to answer, this tool is exceptional at answering those questions. in the future, we'll likely have our agents focused on the most complicated scenarios that require a human touch, but in between, this tool will be very effective. >> brett, thanks for your time today. coming up, we're going to get you ready for the first opening bell of the week on wall street. futures right now indicated down u' wchg quk . yoreatin"sawbox" on cnbc. powered by ameritrade, unlocking the power of thinkorswim, the award-winning trading platforms. bring your trades into focus on thinkorswim desktop with robust charting and analysis tools,

including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization. and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab. my family is sacred to me. it truly is all that matters. i was on a work trip when the pulmonary embolism happened. but because i had the factor 5, which showed i had the genetic mutation, because i was aware of that gene, that saved my life. i would not have been able to meet my new granddaughter. i truly believe i'm here because of 23andme.

to the holiday weekend box office, lionsgate hunger games prequel. in the meantime, "napoleon" beat expectations. disney's latest animated

feature, "wish," brought in just $31.7 million over its first five days in theaters. analysts were looking for an opening of 45 to $55 million. >> what is that? do you know? >> i don't know. >> not pixar, right? just a disney animated film called "wish"? >> i've seen billboards for it. i don't have any idea what it's about. >> it's about a wish. ♪ when you wish upon a star ♪ >> i don't know. ♪ makes no difference who you are ♪ >> not too many people do know what it's about even after. as we count down to the opening bell on wall street, futures are indicated up. for more on the markets in the weeks ahead, let's bring in sylvia from defiance etfs. it might be monday. weekend might be over, but you really see a lot of things that are not so bad, sylvia. you got -- i'll let you list them, but among them, inflation

is going the way the fed wants to go. earnings were pretty good. seasonally, we're in a strong period. what's not to like? you think the market continues to -- since october, it's been doing better. you think that's going to continue? >> good morning, and yes, i do. i think i, you know, started out thinking about the week with, it's the season to be jolly now. there is a lot of good going on in the markets, so if you just look at the s&p 500 in november, going back to the 1950s, the average return was 1.7%. we know it's a good month. this november, s&p is up about 9%, which is about half of its yearly gain, and you know, one of the best months of the year, obviously. the reason for that is some of what you just listed. inflation is coming down, going in the right direction. the prices of oil have gone down a little bit. earnings were good, about 82% of stocks beat on the top line. 62% on the bottom line or so. consumers are spending again. some of the cash is coming off

the sidelines, that 7.5% increase in online shopping this last weekend, increase in travel. it feels like the end of the year going to be a good one. there's definitely some seasonality and tailwinds that are favoring the market, and the breadth of the market has expanded as well. >> how about election years? usually pretty good? >> yeah. you know, we'll have to see what happens. usually pretty good years for the market, and i think that if we continue this narrative of inflation going in the right direction, that's going to be a key factor here. kind of the outlier is really going to be the fed, but i think because it is an election year, you might have some stability with that as well. a lot of it will depend on inflation, but yes, i think we're also poised to see a positive year going into 2024. >> you mentioned that the fed could be the wild card. when does $34 trillion come home to roost? i mean, it's just a word. or, actually, it's 34 -- it's

three words, but -- watch, i can say $40 trillion, and no one really understands or can really -- can fathom what those implications are. but the debt service implications for where interest rates are right now are significant for what other things we'll be able to afford with all that debt service. >> yeah, that is true, and i think that, you know, some of that, as you said, will come to roost. i think there will have to be some sort of adjustment to budgets and spending, whether it's for various programs, whether it's for inflation reduction act, things like this, i do think that that has to be serviced, and there's only sort of a couple ways to do it, right? one is increasing taxes, which people generally don't like. two is cutting on spending, and inflation coming down certainly helps with these things, but we'll have to see where it all ends. i think increase in spending is also a wild card to the path of

inflation. the fed has fought so hard to get it down, going in another direction would be tragic for markets. i think we're just coming off a 2022 recession, particularly in tech and things like that, because of inflation and have a shot at a couple of stable years here, but that could be the thing that sets it off. >> yeah. i guess we'll see, sylvia. in terms of interest rates, do you think the highs are in as well? >> yeah, i think the highs are in. we have a lot of data now that is pretty convincingly pointing downwards on inflation across all areas of the market, whether it's services, prices of oil and things like this, you know, and i think that that is why we're seeing this kind of epic november and potential rally into the end of the year because we're seeing inflation come down, and that means we have stability in rates. i don't think that the fed is going to be quick to necessarily cut rates, but i think that we'll probably have some stability in coming months, at

least, and you know, corporate america has gotten used to these rates. nobody likes to hear that, but look at the last couple of earnings seasons. they were deemed to be horrible, and every earnings season, we go back and look back, and it's these80, 85% beats across s&p 500 companies. they figured out how to cut costs, how to live with inflation, and it's not all goldilocks, but it's, you know, that soft landing scenario came to play out, at least this part of the year. >> all right, sylvia, we will end it there. going to be december soon. >> have a great day. >> you too. december, then christmas, then the new year. meanwhile, check out the shares of amazon on this cyber monday. people are certainly shopping, but there's another piece of good news for the company. reached an agreement with most of its workers in spain to avoid the full impact of a one hour per shift strike that was planned for today. that's according to the company and a local union group.

about 20,000 warehouse and delivery workers had been urged to walk out today to demand better pay and working conditions. here's a final check on the market, about where we've seen for the rest of the morning. you got leftovers? >> i'm trying to look for new ways to reheat turkey. >> i can do my "forrest gump" thing. turkey chlil, turkey pizza, turkey gumbo. he did shrimp. "squawk on the street" is coming up next. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. futures a bit red as the s&p comes off four straight winning weeks, the longest stretch since early summer. busy week with pce thursday, powell on friday, the market assesses black friday sales. our road map begins with retail record. black friday shoppers spending nearly $10 billion in u.s. online. big gains. plus signs of a