from hr to payroll, adp designs for the next anything. airlines grappling with pricing. are more fare hikes on the horizon? the former continental ceo is with us along with raymond james analyst. rick perry on why the market is so concerned with opec's next move despite record u.s. crude production. the ceo of stockx, the latest cyber numbers after set a plaque friday record. take a look at the markets.

hovering just below the flat line on the s&p 500. the dow down 60 points. nasdaq, though, is firm. it's right around flat. just barely green. amazon, one of the upside leaders on the nasdaq. we also, sara, getting a number of 2024 outlook notes published today. bmo and deutsche have 2023 price targets while wells far get says the index could go just up from here. bmo says it's enthusiastic heading into 2024 while deutsche's base case incorporates a mild, short recession. kind of saying the stock market can probably power through that. it's interesting in the setup, i think, because the market has kind of passed by the sell side strategists on a year-end 2023 basis. if you look at where the aggregate target is relative to where the index is, the index is actually a little bit ahead of it. so, i think there's a catch-up move by strategists.

5100, that's about 12% up from here. it certainly would be a new high. 4800 is the old high. it would only be up 6% over three years from the prior peak at the beginning of 2022. >> the mild side. >> somewhat, yeah. >> i keep thinking back to this time last year, the 2023 outlooks, everyone was negative. they thought the market can't possibly go up. we've had all these rate hikes. record timing of rate hikes. some were quadruple rate hikes. we'll feel it in terms of an earnings recession. we've got a little bit. and an economic recession, which we very much did not get. >> it was positive on 2024. >> i think it's a little more mixed. i think that people have been kind of chasing to buy the fact that the recession everyone saw 12 months ago has not yet come. we have pulled out of that mild earnings recession. i would agree with you it's not as if everybody's fighting this move, this rally we've gotten

this time. >> soft landing is still the consensus, wouldn't you say? although when i pushed back on tony dwyer, he said, i expect a recession. if you look at the average stock, it kind of is. >> only seven stocks going up. our next guest says the u.s. and uk central banks not looking to cut rates with the pound at three-month high versus the dollar. u.s. dollar index at a three-month low. instead looking at precious metals and other commodities heading into the new year. joining blake financial chief investment officer, peter. thanks for joining us. the last little upleg in the stock market started with the cpi report for october, which was on november 14th. it seemed to get everybody on board with the idea that disinflation is well in train.

you had bond yields on the ten-year treasury back off. so that seems to solidify this idea that inflation seems like it was 2022's problem and the fed is done. do you take issue with that? >> no, not right now. certainly the moderation is lending support to the belief that the fed is going to cut interest rates by 100 basis points through the end of next year. i also think that's a major catalyst for the stock market rally. who doesn't want to miss a fed is done rally? the real question with inflation, after this moderation, because that's what happens, you get an inflation spike and you get the come down. where does inflation eventually settle out at? that's going to be a key determinant to the extent to which the fed can continue to cut interest. can start cutting interest rates. at the same time the monetary tightening is continuing. the balance sheets. qt not just in the u.s. but around the world. keeping interest rates high for

a wild is the continued form of tightening because eventually someone's debt is coming due and will have to reprice on the rate coming due. >> to some degree by design. the fed has been trying to restrain the economy along those channels. the question is, how fast does the rate have to get? they are not anticipating getting back to 2% until after next year, and yet the consensus outlook was also that they would start cutting rates. it seems as if, you know, if you have this general idea that moderating growth but not a plunge into recession is what we might have just ahead of us, the fed might be cutting into that, at least on a kind of short-term basis or at least sort of those insurance cuts people talk about. >> and the fed is going to be at some point, i think 2024, they'll also be looking at the unemployment rate, which is all of a sudden near 4%, at the highest level since early last year. that is going to also become

part of the conversation. and on the inflation side it's very important. just because you have a 2 handle on a particular month next year, doesn't mean the inflation battle has been won. it's a sustainable level of 2% the fed is most focused on. not just one to two months we see here. even if we have a 1 handle, where does inflation on a multiyear basis stop at? i don't think it's going to be 1 to 2, i think it's going to settle out 3 to 4, even though we'll get some 2% prints. one thing with the labor market -- keep our eye on further softening in the labor market. >> i was going to ask, peter, if that's what you're getting from some of the commentary. you put together a lot of what we get from corporate america. and i'm curious what threads you're picking up on inflation

and demand and whether they match the market expectations. >> well, the demand side at least on the consumer end is very bifurcated. obviously, the upper end consumer is still spending, although from richmont, berbury and the lower end consumer is focused on getting by and focused on the stuff they need rather than the stuff they want. in terms of inflation, there's no doubt that it's moderating. it's going to continue to next year as the rent slowdown works its way through into the cpi stats. but again, after that fall back in inflation, are we just 1 to 2% magically going to stay there? there's one thing for the fed to get inflation down. there's another thing for the inflation -- for the fed to keep it down. >> well, sure. but it seems like from the market's horizon, we'll figure that out another time, right? the fed was missing its target to the downside for a decade and

the market sort of found their way around that. >> you're right. i think the fed is focused on moderation and the fed is done raising interest rates and nothing else matters. the economic slowdown that i think in parts of the economy are happening, doesn't matter. earnings recession this year, didn't matter. it's when is the fed going to stop raising interest rates seem to be the sole focus of markets this year. >> what do you like right now, peter? you liked gold, some other hard assets in the past. certain stocks, maybe with defensive characteristics. is that your playbook? >> it still is. when you look at the safety trade over the last couple of years, it's been precious metals, particularly gold, more so than silver and energy stocks. and i think that theme continues. i add in uranium, copper, some other commodities that i think there outperform. i'm also very bullish on asia. i know the whole world is

bearish on china. i think when you look at the asia region in totality, you've seen some bright spots like japan. i think the hang seng index will outperform the s&p 500 over the next 12 months. and it's not just a play on a chinese recovery. it's a recovery in the entire region of asia, particularly southeast asia, too, which stocks in the hang seng can benefit from that. >> as you mentioned so far, japan has been the favorite there. we'll see if it has any followers. appreciate the time. thanks again. >> thank you. up next, former energy secretary rick perry. the u.s. is currently producing more crude oil than at any time in history, so why are we so concerned with opec's next move? is it impacting commodity prices? wti on pace for second straight down month. how have rising fuel prices hit the airline industry? can the market sustain the decline in off-peak fares? we'll discuss that when "squawk on t see rurhetrt"etns. bonds doy get the media coverage

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crown castle on the move this morning after "the wall street journal" reported the activist investor elliott management has accrued stake of $2 million, better than 4%, and looking to make changes of the stock. shares of the wireless tower operator up 4.5%. the energy market continues to be in focus as crude and brent both fall following opec's decision to postpone its meeting. much of the attention is being paid to opec, the real story may be at home. according to new numbers, domestic production has reached 13.2 million barrels per day. that's the highest output in history. joining us to discuss the state of the energy market is former secretary of energy, rick perry. good to have you on. that beats the trump era milestone of energy production in this country. are you surprised? >> not necessarily. hats off to the innovators and

particularly the texas oil and gas producers, producing at record levels. if you're from oklahoma, north dakota, those two states are down. alaska's taken a real hit. but in the u.s. we've seen some really great development in the oil and gas industry, particularly in texas as i said. doesn't necessarily surprise me. it could be substantially better if you had an administration that was supportive of fossil fuels. this current administration is not. we've seen offshore leasing cut substantially, federal land cuts substantially. so, we could even be higher if we had the support of the federal government. but, you know, even without that, the private sector kind of shrugs them off and goes on about their business because the demand's there. i think that's the real key. understanding that the demand worldwide is there. you've got the conflicts in ukraine and in israel that's also affecting the world. a lot going on out there, but thank god the american oil and

gas industry is as resilient as it is. here's the problem with the message that we're getting out of this administration long term for refineries and those types of infrastructure that need to be built out for the future growth, it may not be happening. that's my big concern. >> right. they're trying to straddle this idea that we need oil production at the moment, but in the future we need to look toward a more sustainable future, especially as the c.o.p. meeting kicks off. is there a way to do both? >> we'll see. i think it's short-sighted and a fool's errand to believe you aren't going to need fossil fuel way into the future. the electric is fine and the rare minerals and all that that's going to be required, have we thought that through? how big a shovel do you have to have, my friend dan just wrote

an interesting article about the big shovel and how much of these rare earth minerals you'll have to have and do we have it? what's the impact on the earth, so to speak? those are really good questions that aren't been answered appropriately, in my opinion. so we'll see if we can split this baby and do it. don't get confused. you're going to need fossil fuels for literally decades into the future to have the base load electricity. and you better get focused on nuclear power, small reactors in particular to be able to fill that base load electric power need that's going to be out there in the future. >> that's something that gets a lot less attention, at least at the moment. i do wonder with north american production at these levels, and they postponed opec meeting because they seemingly couldn't come to an agreement on further production cuts. this is the way commodity

markets are supposed to work. if one is producing more, it's tough to hit it out and wait for higher prices. it would seem like good news globally. >> you would think that's the case. we'll leave opec to their business deciding what they need to do on theirs. hopefully the u.s. will continue to produce at record levels and we can fill any needs the world has for the energy development that is going to be required for growth. i mean, the world is growing. there's great need for this fossil fuel out there. let's celebrate that instead of sticking our head in the sand and saying we have an existential crisis with the climate. the reality is, if you want to have the lights on, if you want to see the world progress -- i mean, the message of net zero to african citizens, the people that live on that continent is, sorry, you're not going to have progress in your life. you're just going to live the

way you're living. i think that's a very racist message as well as one that's very negative. >> i'm curious, secretary perry, what's happening with iranian production and exports and what we know. just looking at a report from the united against nuclear iran, the group of former politicians and ambassadors. iran exported nearly 1.4 million barrels of oil a day in october, sustaining its average for 2023. do you think that's what's happening? is it a mistake? is there more pressure the u.s. administration should be applying right now? >> well, i certainly think the pressure should be applied to those individuals, particularly in the oil and gas side of it. they're fund, the terrorist attacks across the world. they're who hamas, hezbollah, the hoouthis, all of those grous attacking western civilization, if you will, western values around the world, the iranians

are at the core of funding it. and iran gets their money basically through the oil and gas industry. so, this administration has sent pretty mixed messages, in my opinion, to the world about how we're going to deal with iran and they're wrong. and there are people paying with their lives. and that is unconscionable. and this administration needs to use substantial more leverage against iran. >> where do you think energy -- do you think energy policy is going to be a big issue for the 2024 election? it feels like it was more so when inflation was really spiking and people were feeling it more at the gas pump, but it's come down a lot. >> well, energy policy is going to be at the heart of any election. it should be. the idea that if you lose your ability to have an energy policy that is progressive, to have base load electricity, you want to see chaos in the world? lose your electric grid.

and if the only way that you can have a stable electric grid is with fossil fuels and with nuclear power. you can't do it with just solar and just wind. they're nice additions, but you can't do it based on that. so, net zero just on its face, i think, is going to be a failure. but in this next election cycle, energy policy will be at the core, i think, of decision-making about whether we want the current administration or we want another administration in place that has a little more progressive, thoughtful and, frankly, realistic approach to energy policy. that is having base load electricity so that our power stays on, our grid stays up. >> we want the power to stay on, for sure. rick perry, thank you for the perspective today on those record numbers out of the u.s. rick perry, formeru.s. energy secretary. later this hour, $9.8 billion, that's how much u.s.

online shoppers spent on black friday, setting a noo new record, according to adobe. the impact for companies like affirm, shopify, block and paypal is next as buy now, pay later use jumps 47%. we're back in two minutes. trading at schwab is now powered by ameritrade, giving traders even more ways to sharpen their skills with tailored education. get an expanding library filled with new online videos, webcasts, articles, courses, and more - all crafted just for traders. and with guided learning paths stacked with content curated to fit your unique goals, you can spend less time searching and more time learning. trade brilliantly with schwab.

european market set to close in a few minutes. stocks are mostly lower but off the worst levels. defensive groups like real

estate, utilities and telecom are leading while cyclical stocks are lagging. european markets have closed higher for two straight weeks. ubs saying they still see a slowdown and equity weakness on the horizon for europe and called 2024 a stock picker's market. ecb president christine lagarde speaking earlier today saying headline inflation may tick up in the coming months and it's not time to start declaring victory and reducing inflation. she's spoken a lot lately and she's continuing to hammer this message, as i think we'll get from the fed speak this week as well, and potentially fed chair powell. relax, a little bit, chillax, as tony dwyer would say, that central banks will start cutting soon. i think they want to quiet some of that. >> a little more stark when it comes to the ecb with the mandate on inflation and the fact they fight, because of that, almost have to tolerate more domestic weakness in the

economies. you have that message that's similar to what maybe the fed is going to voice when it next meets. on the other hand, dough don't have the same economic resilience in terms of their economies. >> no. and it does feel like they're willing to tolerate more, as you say, because of that single mandate. they're not at the 2% level. it's come down. like a 15-year low. >> even though many people feel as if maybe disinflationary forces are pretty strong in europe. we'll see how that goes. we're about two hours into trading. let's go post to post with bob pisani for what's moving. >> a flattish open but a spectacular november. we're heading into a -- one of the best months we've seen in a number of years. i was joking earlier. i was at an island in the caribbean and a lot of people were spending but still worried. people are still spending in the united states. if you look at earnings commentary around estaurants, generally they've been very good. chipotle has been on a tear all month. they had earnings out at the end of october. it was straight up. 1900, 2200 right now.

they never split the stock ever. that's why this is a $2200 stock. up 15% this month. all the restaurants had decent numbers. mcdonald's, the same thing. they reported around the same time as chipotle at the end of october, now 282. a big thing that happened, not only do they have decent commentary but rates went down at the start of november. that's been the impetus about getting the stock market going here. look at target here. target's over here. they had earnings commentary, not bad in the middle of november. it was 110. now it's 131 here. 2024 earnings estimates have been rising for the last couple of weeks on these. that's been a big factor here. again, rates coming on down is the key story. look at -- here's sherwin-williams. sherwin-williams had an eh report. dent do much. people weren't impressed with it. this was at the end of october. what got this thing moving is when rates started moving down in the middle of november.

so, put this back up. at the end of october, sherwin-williams was somewhere around $240. now $274. was it because the earnings were amazing? no, because rates moved down. this is a remodeling story. maybe you get home building -- or home sales moving a little more when rates come down. they would be a beneficiary. this is almost entirely a reduced interest rate environment report. same with the reits. all the reits have been rallying since early november. simon property was, you know, 105, 106, i forget, in the beginning of november. now 121. again, all an interest rate play. the only sector that's not doing great this november as rates come down has been the energy sector. that's happening because oil's down and natural gas has been collapsing as well. again, this is generally -- this is slb. it tends to follow, sara, as you

know, these oil service names tend to follow oil prices. oil peaked in october. slb peaked in october. it's been down maybe -- oil's down maybe 17%, 18% since then. only down 11%. the reason it happens is because it tracks oil but not perfectly. and the stock market's been moving up so schlumberger has been a beneficiary. same with gold stocks. they don't perfectly track gold. they generally track oil, same with oil service names. back to you. >> makes sense. bob, thank you. bob pisani. time for a new update. good morning. humanitarian aid trucks have started to arrive in the gaza strip under protection of the temporary cease-fire in gaza. sources tell nbc news, israel and hamas are finalizing details of a truce extension but they warn it could still collapse. some 200 trucks are set to continue the delivery of supplies of food, water, medicine and fuel to the region today.

the motorcade for late first lady rosalynn carter departed from planes, georgia. it will travel to the jimmy carter presidential library and museum in atlanta where members of the public will be able to pay their respects to carter before her funeral on wednesday. her husband, the 99-year-old former president, jimmy carter, has been in hospice care since february. and the united states and more than a dozen other countries signed an international agreement to protect the greater public from potential misuses of a.i. but the 20-page document is nonbinding. it includes general recommendations, such as monitoring a.i. for abuse and vetting software suppliers. sara, back to you. >> thank you. up next, all six of the major u.s. airlines seeing their stock prices drop last week over one of the busiest travel periods of the year. only united and delta positive for 2023. can the industry sustain the

current demand levels? what will that mean for earnings and ticket prices? that's coming up after the break.

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shares of foot locker down marginally as citigroup slaps a sell rating on the stock. weaker macro, weaker comps the catalyst behind the downgrade. down around 40%, including today's move. but off the earlier lows. one of the points the citigroup analyst made in this note, mike, is the turn-around is hard for foot locker itself to control its own destiny because 64% of its sales are exposed to nike. really a lot rests on that relationship. we know nike has been cutting

dependence on -- >> it was a 60-something-dollar stock a year ago. >> people are excited about mary dillon. they got disproportionately hit by the weaker consumer spending at the lower end. they have a lot of exposure through the mall. the tsa saw nearly 3 million people pass chew checkpoints after the agency already saw seven of its ten busiest days in hits history as fares fall and consumers are eager to travel, can the airlines keep up the mom momentum? >> joining us is gordon bethune and savi. good morning to you both. interested in how the stocks, 30% off their highs as a group. they trade -- delta and united trade at four to six times earnings. the market seems to be saying the good times can't last, at least in terms of profitability. what's your view on that?

>> i agree. that's definitely what the markets are saying. i disagree with the markets in that you have seen some fare weakness in offpeak times. the airlines are moving as quickly as schedules allow for the off-peak periods. i do think while it may not be as strong in the transatlantic next year as this year, i do think things will hold up better than the market preeappreciates >> gordon, you know the old story that as a group, airlines have a hard time not adding capacity, not chasing volume once things slow down at all. you're starting to see softening of prices in some areas. how do you think the industry is going to navigate this? >> i think on an overall basis they're in a good position. they're starting to adjust nonfare revenue to increase their margins. they have a lot of labor cost pressure on them now, which is going to be the real challenge for next year. i generally agree.

i think it's a positive growth scenario but not extraordinary. >> gordon, how do you turn a good industry or good operator and a good management team into a good stock? that always appears to be the problem here. >> well, you know, people don't always read the tarot cards correctly either. i think management in airline is as strong as i've ever seen. they're not a bunch of team chasing their own tail and attacking each other. they're focused on incremental revenue instead of day/night differences, small margin increases. overall, got them out of the 2020 hole. they're out of the hole now and i think they're going to stay. >> savi, you mentioned the pressure on pricing and off-peak times. and off-peak, i guess, routes. with not being compatible with current fuel cost levels. it seems as if the pressure has

come off to some degree on fuel, but how is that playing out and what do you see that leading to next year? >> fuel is still 50% above 2019 so it's much better scenario than what you saw last year. but it's still a lot of pressure. you saw some airlines in the third quarter not making money in this environment. you are going to see airlines adjust capacity to address that. the levels of fare that you're seeing in the off-peaks is not sustainable. you'll see it in capacity adjustments next year. >> and which airlines, savi, are better positioned or at least more attractively valued in this environment? >> yeah, our picks are still i in this environment alaska and delta. they have strong balance sheets to withstand any kind of slowdowns or shocks. and we think doing the right things and earnings headed in the right direction. >> i know, gordon, you're looking at the election, the

pending election potentially for a driver of the economy or fiscal policy. i know it's not necessarily airline specific, but what do you expect? >> well, a lot of pressure there because, you know, what the economy does is pretty much what the airlines are going to do. once they get behind, if they get over the 2020 covid, it's hard to catch up. they're still adjusting on what the new day is here in america, the international prices showing up. capital spending and you're not just going to see capital spending in an uncertain environment. we've got to get behind the election to see where we are. >> savi, when it comes to just the macro influences on what's happening in terms of demand, you know, on one level you hear about the premiumization of everything and basically fliers willing to trade up for economy plus type fares. on the other you see lots of pressure on certain -- on certain routes and certain times. is the consumer fatigue showing

up in any of the numbers you watch? >> i think the biggest difference has been -- on the margin maybe there is some kind of returning to normal seasonality. maybe that was work from anywhere and taking advantage of flexible work schedules last year. you're not seeing it to the same degree this year. i think that's showing up. and just premiumization is more availability of premium product and better selling of the premium product is helping. i don't think it's a reflection of the consumer. i think the consumer is strong. you just have more capacity and the travel patterns have returned back to what you saw pre-pandemic. >> yeah. it is tough to separate out the return to normal from cyclical pressures across lots of industries. savi, gordon, appreciate the time this morning. thank you. >> thank you. i wonder if there's any psychological impact for these kids in china? the health authorities there are saying it's influenza, nothing

they don't recognize, but it hasn't been that long. >> transpacific has been very slow to come back anyway. even within asia i imagine -- >> right. they're seeing a surge in illnesses. a jump in buy now, pay later spend, helping shares of affirm this morning. new numbers after the break, with affirm stock up 200% so far this year. ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ ♪♪ icy hot. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy.

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we've got the results of this morning's two-year treasury auction. rick santelli has the details. hi, rick. >> hi, mike. indeed, 54 billion two-year notes yielding 4.887 at the dutch auction. it tailed by one basis point. i gave the auction a c-minus. let's go through the highlights, shall we? the bid to cover, 2.54. a bit light since march. if you look indirect, 57.4,

lowest since march. not that march was that long ago, but there was a huge pop in direct bidders. that really helped. 23.9%, that's the best since march. finally, the dealers end up taking a bit too much, 18.8%. that's the highest amount since april. they average 16%. as you look at the intraday chart, what is notable is there wasn't a huge amount of volatility as the auction ended at 11:30. we did see the market making new low-yield high price of the session. that is something to pay attention to. it's most likely the mogul effect, the fact the auction is now in the rearview mirror. but we're not done yet. we have 55 billion in notes at the top of 1 and tomorrow $39 billion seven-year notes completing the treasury auction supply on this trifecta of $148 billion. back to you, mike. >> rick, thanks so much. shares of affirm hitting a 15-month high as adobe estimates usage of buy now, pay later

could reach record levels today. kate rooney has the details in today's "techcheck." hi, kate. >> hi, mike. so, buy now, pay later options are having a moment this holiday shopping season. these are also referred to as bnpl, essentially installment payments. paying in four lump sums over time versus using a revolving credit card. they rose in popularity during the pandemic for those big-ticket items. think of things like a new peloton bike. now they're starting to show up in everyday spending. adobe has some new numbers on that recent boom for black friday. revenue was up 47% from a year ago. today, cyber monday, it is expected to hit an all-time high. it's on track to contribute $782 million in online spending. that's up 18.8% year over year. last week, 72% more shoppers were using bmpl plans compared to the prior week. while consumers are showing a strong appetite to shop online,

many are giving themselves more flexibility with their budgets and continue to embrace flexible payment methods. affirm is that pure play leader in the space. it's hitting a 15-month high today. e-commerce in general also seeing a boost. shopify seeing global black friday sales up 22%. mastercard's spending pulse shows pretty strong in-store and online retail sales. while more spending, guys, could be seen as bullish and show some resiliency for the u.s. consumer, that bmpl bump could be interpreted as a bit more negative. as wells fargo put it, the other side of this measured with this data point is more bearish. the u.s. consumer being more price conscious given the inflationary back drop and is opting to chase more deals and discounts at higher interest rates. of course, they're part of this boom in bnpl. >> fits with the whole value consumers paying more attention, a little bit under further

stress. it really comes down to delinquency rates. are we seeing them rise yet in results of affirm and other buy now, pay later stocks? >> yeah. it's interesting, sara. not yet. that's something that analysts really watch closely with affirm. they have made the case that they're able to tightly control that. they're able to pull back some of the issuing when it comes to delinquencies and they can sort of keep that in check. they said it's all tech related. they've got if algorithm that can help them with delinquencies. if we do see that pick up at all, it's something to watch for the consumer. so far, surprisingly, affirm is not seeing an uptick. that's helped the stock after earnings. it's been also highly shorted. it's been one of those really vol volatile names out there and done well after earnings when they report' steady line of delinquencies. absolutely something to watch there. >> in theory, balances wouldn't snowball as they would with revolving credit, too. theoretically, more

controllable. we'll see if that plays out during the cycle. thank. sticking with cyber monday, the ceo of stockx with more on the latest numbers and trends with the holiday shopping season. we're back in two nus.mite ♪ unnecessary action hero! ♪ -missing punches? -unnecessary! -check reversals? -unnecessary! -time sheet corrections? -unnecessary! -unentered sick time? -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -go! -unnecessary! -when you can take this phone, you'll be ready. -make the unnecessary, unnecessary.

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orders are just pumping by. a lot of top sellers so far, as a matter of fact, this laptop was $1,000 off, and among one of the things selling quickly as well as the apple watch, and for the first time this year, walmart plus members got early access. captivators, all those seeing a search uptick from last cyber monday. and adobe does expect consumers will spend between $12.4 billion today making it the biggest

online sales of the year, and black friday grew 7.5%, and sunday up 6.4% year over year. it's important to note that while adobe data is not inflation adjusted. >> i was wondering about that, and some of the numbers are inflation adjusted. let's look at the key trends, and joining us now, ceo scott cutler. how is it looking from your perspective? >> on black friday, stocks

averaged more than one trade every second throughout the day, and we had black friday, the second biggest day of shopping. this year millennials are expected to drive spending. and for that consumer, what we see in our market is that value is top of the mind, and resale can be more affordable than retail, and this year 35% of u.s. sneakers, as an example are trading below the retail price which is a 60% increase over last year. >> is that because of promotions or demand weakened? >> there's a realtime supply and demand, and you are seeing a consumer still challenged in

terms of their buying power, and you are seeing supply come into the market. i think when the dynamics played together, again what we see is retail premiums are down this year over last year, but we also see a lot of brands breaking through and grabbing market share and setting all-time records this black friday. for example, ugg, new basics, birkenstock, and they are trying to buy the right thing at the right place. >> i had the perception that you are trading off of relative scarcity out there, and if 35% of sneakers are trading below, 65% are above. is there still an idea out there that you benefit from the hot items that the manufacturers either can't or won't keep up supply for? >> well, it's, you know, when we look at the top moving brands at

this time on black friday and cyber weekend, and a couple examples, nike dunks, one of the most popular silhouette over the last couple 6 yof years, and th nike dunk low, a popular sneaker, retail price $110, and resale price around $100. however this year is a women's exclusive release which is a nike dunk low, and i think what you are seeing again is the market value being represented in how much volume brands are release into the phaumarket, anw much the consumer is willing to pay for resale. >> yeah, and they are still

looking at the slides? >> yeah, and the average resale price there is around $100, so lower than it had been in prior years, but putting them in a very affordable price point for many of the brands, sneakers, and we see character-inspired crocks. this one is fun. two of them rank among the top 50 selling products. the lightning mcqueen, a great purchase for a young consumer. >> they are hard to get. >> this is a get, and this is something you should have on your feet this holiday season. >> i tried with the lightning mcqueen crocks. they are not hard to come by, scott. always good to get a read from you on what is hot in retail sneakers. meantime, wall street is buzzing about elon musk and

israel, and he's meeting with prime minister benjamin netanyahu. reuters reporting that the advertiser may cost as much as $75 million by year end, and meantime the white house confirming hamas and israel agreed to extend their truce in gaza which means more hostages get released back into israel. as far as x, look, i think -- musk himself tweeted words, actions speak louder than words, and it's going to be interesting to see if the x policies change, and there's a ton of hate speech. it's a cesspool. it's not just x. >> opposed to just firing off a

viral tweet, and his incentive is to stoke whatever travels, and i think that could be a bigger issue long-term for the model. >> interesting first step. he said it has been an emotional first day. no doubt. looks like the market is hanging in there. >> yeah. >> it has been quite a november as we head until the end of the month. i will send it over to scott with the "halftime report." >> thank you so much. i am scott wapner front and center this morning. how far can stocks run? we will debate that today. let's take you to the markets. a bit of a choppy day. the dow is red. there's 442 on the 10-year. we are on track, as we said, for

the