the retail space, a lot of places i'd avoid >> like affirm and many others michael, thank you >> and heinz hold the ketchup >> we appreciate it. >> michael, thank you very much. did you shop this weekend? >> technically yes i was at a target. what about you >> i did watching a lot of football games too. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> welcome to "closing bell. i'm scott wapner from post 9 at the new york stock exchange. we begin with the final stretch to a great month for stocks, the best in a couple of year, in fact the big question now, how long can it last? we'll ask our guests this hour your scorecard with 60 minutes to go looks like this. not too many sectors in the green today. we have a few. consumer discretionary looks good after the strong kickoff to the holiday shopping season. amazon is a standout, no big surprise on this cyber monday as

well 13 the megacap tech adding to gains, microsoft among them. nasdaq 100 continuing its own incredible run there it is, virtually flat, but it's been anything but this month. yields are lower too a midday bond auction went off well rick santelli gave it a "b." our "talk of the tape," what the last month of the year could bring for stocks, cameron dawson is here with me. nice to see you again. hope you had a great thanksgiving we're about to put a great month in the books what's it mean for where we go from here? we have a lot of momentum. >> i think a little bit of digestion wouldn't be unsurprising, kind of like what we're seeing today markets did get overbought last week but we saw breadth improve a lot, things like 20-day highs, percentage of names trading above their 50-day moving

average. that's supportive of further room upside in this market at least through the end of the year that's kind of where we've been thinking about it in two distinct phases. yeah, we can rally through the end of the year. let's take a sober assessment at the start of the year to set expectations for 2024. >> this is all, what, positioning, trying to get ready for, you know, the very end of the year, but we're still not willing to go out on a limb and suggest, hey, we think we can get a soft landing we think earnings will hold up to the degree that the market thinks inflation will come down so we should be able to be a bit more bull senate judiciary committee. >> it seems like that's what we're now pricing in if we look at 19 times earnings on earnings growing 12%, that's the soft landing 19 times supported by the fed is easier 12% growth supported by an economy without a recession. positioning is the key kind of driver here of flipping even more positive, meaning that as people get drawn back into the market, that's where you could see the market trade up closer

to 20 times, which is back near prior peaks in valuations. >> feels like maybe you have a few more bulls than you did a couple months ago. a good trend will do that. brian bellski was on halftime today. he's bullish 5,100 base case, 5,500 bull case here's what he said. >> we see a rapid drop-off in inflation, earnings tick off, and gdp holds a little better than we thought. from a 5,100 number, that's for a 5,500 number, for a 5,100 number, our base case, recession in name only, not a technical recession, rates stick around 4% for the first half of the year, dim below 4% the second half of the year the market broadens out. we'll be in a market region of both growth and value. in terms of size and style, it's -- i like to call it the

jackie moon market -- own everything equal weight everything. don't be massively over large or small. own a combination. >> there's a lot in there to pick at if you're not that bullish. the rapid dropoff in inflation, earnings taking off in his words, gdp holding begter than we thought is he too bull senate judiciary committee. >> if youtake the 5,100 and break it apart, what you're essentially saying is that by the end of the year, when we look at 2025 earnings, we'll be growing earnings about 10% next year and again in 2025 you'd be at $270 a share, 19 times 5,100. that's still an expensive multitude so you need inflation and rates to come down >> that's how he thinks we get there. is that far fetched? >> i don't think that interest rates will fall as much if the economy remains so robust. that would support an earnings

output that would be that 10% growth each and every year in 2024 and 2025. >> in terms of market broadening out, should own both growth and value, own everything, equal weight everything. >> i think that's saying own everything else, because there are so many names that have been left behind this year that, if you look at the equal-weight index, it's trading at about 15 times. it traded at 18 times back in 2018, 2019 there's opportunity in a lot of parts of this market, which just means it's more of -- i thahate call it the stock picker's market, but there's more dispersion within one sector >> the breadth has gotten better lately it's not all been top heavy over this last great stretch. is that a sign we'll have other areas of the market performing better >> it's an encouraging sign. what we'd like to see is better relative performance the thing that's been troubling is if you look at both cyclicals

and defensives, they're still in relative down trends versus the market that meanings it's still tech heavy. there's still only one horse in town, tech >> if you have the best horse, right, in the race, why don't you just keep riding it? it doesn't mean other horses can't do well and, you know, make you money it just means that the best horse is the best horse. >> the only ris k you run with that is if everybody wants to run that horse that's what happened in 2022 tech was the no-brainer, all the growth there it's very crowded. the opposite happened in 2023. cheaper multiple nobody wanted to own tech with interest rates going up. now we're back to a world where everyone wants to own tech it's expensive, so i think we have to be disciplined about positioning. >> if there's a surprise to be had in the new year, where is it going to be in the market, do you think? what sector surprises us >> small caps.

them outperforming would catch people flat-footed they're pinched by higher interest rates the most, and the positioning isn't there. you've seen outflows out of small caps they're trading at a discounted valuation versus the market. i think they got so oversold that you could see huge rallies. it doesn't mean they're sustainable, but it catches people flat-footed >> if you think there will be a considerable amount of money going into small caps, that will bode well for the overall market >> it usually is a risk on signal we'd like to see it confirmed by things like high beta outperforming. that's a sign that liquidity is more abundant, that people are cam loring for risk. they're important indicators for a healthy market >> are you figuring they actually happen? or are you saying out of a basket of what could surprise us, i would putten that on the list do you believe that could happen >> i think that the sustainability is what i still question, because usually you see small caps only outperform on a sustained basis at the

beginning of a cycle this still feels very late cycle. still with low unemployment. interest rates are still high. the fed is not still in full easing mode. this has a late-cycle field to it which makes me think a small-caporalely could be powerful but more short lived than a two-year rally. >> where do you come down on your views of not so much for the last month of the year, but as we make the turn and get some meat on the bone in the new year >> i think going into 2024 we have to kind of do an outline of what we know is true inflation has come down. when you look at the composition of inflation and take out shelter or owner's equivalent rents, you're at that point. inflation is going in the right direction. rates are coming down. we've seen a material change in rates. record volatility obviously, but you're seeing rates go in the right trajectory oil has come down, as well

earnings have troughed so when you look at that setup in terms of 2024, we do believe there's opportunities to be invested both on the fixed-income side and the equity side some areas people are getting a little over their skis is in the overall level of the s&p 500 because of this catch-up trade, because of the composition of the market, you can see flows going into other parts of the market that wouldn't translate into substantial gains in the s&p overall. >> you sound reasonably bullish, though, based on what you just said >> yeah. >> earnings holding up and soft landing. rates coming down. inflagts inflation continuing to come down that means the fed's done. >> absolutely. >> that's what i would retort. >> i would say the magnitude of bullishness is where this conversation gets nuanced. there are strong bulls going into the market. i think what we're saying is there's opportunities beyond the magnificent seven.

short term, what are you playing? you're playing momentum into year end, which could be very much concentrated in winners but if you're saying longer term the fed is lightning, and all the signs are telling us that should happen, maybe towards the midpoint of next year that we would get our first rate cut, with that backdrop, putting capital into some of these areas that have lagged i think is something that makes a lot of sense. >> if there's opportunities outside of the mag seven, where is the money going to come from to go into those areas cash that's been on the sidelines? >> yes >> money markets not necessarily from the mag seven rotating into these areas? >> a lot of things will happen at the end of this year. tax lost harvesting because of the concentration in that performance. there's a lot of cash on the sidelines, as well, right. when you look at the amount of money that's flowed into t-bills, money market funds, there are record volumes there

a lot of people have been sitting on the sidelines to put that into the market and saying where do i feel comfortable, because, remember, the mag seven is trading at 30 times earnings, the rest of the market at a 40% discount to that you look at profitable companies and some opportunities that are not just today but longer term in nature, investing in longevity and digitization >> you're a market historian bonds and stocks go up together. >> yeah. >> why wouldn't they in a new year, if they both look attractive and more attractive than cash, because rates continue to come down? >> it's common for bonds and stocks to go up together the benefit you would have from interest rates falling, helping get people off the sidelines, back into the market to get invested, the one thing we would watch is the aaii publishes the percentage allocation to equities one of the things we've seen is that has gone up

it's not back to 2022 peaks. but if people get drawn back into that market, you see that reach the 2022 peaks, you start to say maybe positioning is fully extended it's not there yet, so we have more room to get people back in. >> what about the idea of bond supply fears, which have been a principle fear as to why some said rates will stay high, all the supply is coming on the market, there's not enough demand for it? are those exaggerated? >> a lot of people want to buy yields above 4%, 5%. i think there is still this concern that deficits are still very large and that even next year, in a strong nominal gdp environment, the deficit to gdp is still going to be about 6%. that is big for a non-war-time economy. it is substantial. we have the update to treasury issuance in the early part of next year. we'll see if that starts to spook people again

but for now, these auctions are getting taken down some are better than others. the auctions are getting taken down, so there's appetite. >> there was one horrible one in the last few weeks we remember it because yields shot up and the market shot down rick santelli gave it a "b." what about that issue? have we overblown a lot of the more dramatic outcome calls? commercial real estate will blow up and that's going to cause the major market turmoil that everybody is waiting for well, the deficit is going through the roof, so real rates will skyrocket and stay there because of the supply coming on the market and there are no buyers >> you could break it down into something much simpler when we say what happened with the 10-year, the 2-year, 5-year, it's kind of who is the natural buyer and where is the demand coming from in terms of what looks attractive in the market if you have right now you're looking at the rate environment, say you think that the fed is

done, reinvestment risk becomes a real is risk in terms of if you're someone who's been rolling t-bills, all of a sudden that 5-year looks really attractive hang out not in very long duration but getting decent yields out four, five, six year, and high quality fixed income makes a lot of sense i think the options kind of give us some of that color. >> i asked cameron the area that could surprise us. said small caps. what's yours >> i would agree this is one thing we noticed going into year end that could surprise us. the positioning is just so bearish. when you look at overall positioning within small caps, it hasn't caught -- >> but the russell -- >> fair enough recently, it has on a relative basis, the one area of the market that's still down on the year when you look at what could continue, i think small and midcap and finding profitable areas of that is an area where you see extension. an area like midcap, you have

industrials that are making up close to 20% of the midcap index. thinking about spending on infrastructure, a lot of the trends more broadly, you'll look at earnings and fundamentals again as opposed to the macro backdrop as to rates being in the driver's seat. >> what about energy we've been on this pretty big losing streak in terms of where crude is, and energy hasn't done anything this year what about now >> it was the consensus overweight going into this year. we've seen big outflows from energy that's helpful we saw a spike in put buying for crude last week, which might say that's capitulating, people pricing in more downside one of the good things about energy is earnings will decline 30% this year. they're set to grow about 3% next year. that's one of the biggest deltas on the market. maybe if you're looking for a place that's been beat up that has the had a lot of outflows, is cheap and has an easy earnings trajectory, that could

be an yarea to look >> what do you think >> in terms of an overall hedge, we have seen the front end of the curve come down substantially. when you look at that 20%, there is that opportunity for kind of a short-term bounce. i would say longer-term, when you look at the supply/demand imbalance overall, it would be more of an area we would trade or use as a hedge, not a core investment holding. >> ladies, thanks so much. appreciate it. a check on some top stocks to watch heading into the close. steve kovak is with us >> j&p securities downgrades okta the breach back in october significantly degraded the brand's reputation, with shares down more than 15% since that breach they're set to report quarterly results after the bell this wednesday. dominodomino's is higher

analysts say they're bullish on the pizza chain's turnaround, and they forecast higher than expected same-store sales in 2024 and 2025. shares are up over 4%. back to you. >> steve, thank you. up next, class is in session. we are live if the nyse.

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stocks losing some steam after last week's rally. the dow and the s&p are both slightly lower the s&p is up nearly 19% so far this year. now the big question as we head into year-end, is there staying power for the rally, or is the market overvalued? the dean of valuation, aswath damodaran from nyu's school of business welcome back >> thank you for having me >> we're resilient we've had an incredible run in november where has that taken us? are we overvalued? just right what do you see? >> i think at rates at 4.4%, i think we're okay if we're overvalued, it's not by much i think the real test is what happens to the economy and rates going forward. i think the consensus seems to have shifted that we're not going to go into recession, that rates are going to come down

i think that might be setting us up for some bad surprises if that doesn't happen. >> that's only because you don't believe the prognosticators. >> they've been wrong so often the last three years, they've become almost contra indicators. when they tell me to cheer up, i make sure. >> i think the most important thing you said is that 4.4%, you don't think we're overvalued in the instance that inflation continues to come down and rates continue to fall, we could have a little bit of expansion of the market multiple under that scenario then. >> if the driver is not a much slower economy that's the key if rates come down because we somehow find a way to get to a recession anyway, then i think we might be looking at trouble but if rates come down and the economy stays where it is, i think you're right, there's more upside than downside at this point. >> what sounds reasonable to you

in terms of a number that you would put on the market? >> i don't see rates going below 4% significantly unless there's something, you know -- there's a serious slowing down of the economy. so, the way i price the market right now is in a best-case scenario or the better-case scenario is a 4% rate, i think we're looking at perhaps a steadying at this level and rise through at least the first half of next year but i think -- i watch the earnings and the economy numbers very closely for the next few months >> you've had such a bifurcated market i'm curious how a professor of valuation is able to distinguish between the two without judging one as a whole it's hard to say the overall market is overvalued based on the performance of seven stocks, which is essentially what you've gotten, versus everything else, when you would easily make the

argument that may look cheap >> yeah. i think that's the saving grace for the market is it's not as if all of the stocks are at the same point seven stocks have accounted for a big chunk of that rise to the extent it's been a flat year for other companies, i don't think necessarily small cap, but outside of those seven, there is room on the upside. i think that's what you're looking for is whether there will be breadth in the market, and, you know, these seven stocks can't keep carrying the market for the next year, i think. we have to have new players step in and take some of that heat away from these seven stocks >> what do you think of in terms of valuation looking at small caps many make the argument, despite a 10% run in the russell in the last month, do you not see that? >> i think the problem with small caps is that i think the economy has shifted. there was a small-cap premium much of the last century with small cap stocks under premium

over large cap the economy has shifted to more winner take all. across sectors, the biggest players are benefiting at the expense of smaller players it doesn't mean small caps are dead for the count, but it makes it much more difficult for these stocks to mount the rally you saw two or three decades ago the small caps have a life of their own. >> you're almost in the same sentence making a case for why these seven largest stocks deserve to have the multiples that they do and arguably even richer ones. >> and i think in a sense that's why all through this year, when i've looked at the seven stocks, i've been reluctant to say they're overheated, because i think there's a reason they've taken the lead in this market. they're showing they're able to keep things passing through. the only problem is the pricing of these stocks has risen to a point where the market is

already building in that expectation that, not only would they pass through inflation, but continue to grow so, in a sense, i think the market is taking care of what they've done well. they might have to beat what they did this year, which is going to be tough to do. they'll have to grow at a rate faster than inflation. i don't think anybody can sustainably do that in this economy. >> sure. nvidia is a good campaign finance reform the price has gone up. the multiple has come down >> and i think the earnings are catching up there. i think in a sense that pricing you saw at the start of the year was built on the expectation that earnings will go up i think we're giving them a double benefit by saying, okay, the earnings have now gone up, the multiples are down, so let's give them another boost in the price. i think nvidia is run based on what expectations are in terms of earnings. and i think the next phase for nvidia will be whether they can keep doing what they've done for the last decade. it is going to get increasingly

difficult to beat those expectations. >> do you look at one specific area of the market and that screams to you that it's the most undervalued of anything you look at? >> you know what, small cap has been beaten up so badly. last year, zoom, peloton, and those stocks are way below where they were two years ago. two years ago of course they were all overvalued. but i wouldn't be surprised if you saw especially the market stays healthy and the economy doesn't go into recession, some of those small tech stocks that have been left on the wayside try to make up some ground this coming year. >> we will see professor, i appreciate it, as always thanks so much aswath damodaran joining us from nyu again. up next, we'll break down the charts on the technicals

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we are back. the s&p and nasdaq on pace for their largest monthly gain since july of 2022 joining me now to discuss whether there could still be opportunity for investors, jeff degraaf of renaissance macro research good to see you. somebody has been right being bullish. now what are we overbought? where do we go >> we are overbought, scott. this business is forever behalf you done for me lately, so i appreciate that. there's seasonality in this tape i think one of the interesting things that we've done some work on is, you know, how much does seasonality change if you've got, you know, particularly a strong month like the month of november, does that front-end load force more of a mediocre or poor month in december

that's not the case. good things tend to happen i think you've set the bar and got this momentum machine going. we've got 91% of the s&p above their own 20-day moving average. that's historically pretty good news it implies we're probably going to go higher i think at this stage, you may want to play it for the next eight weeks or so, and we'll see at the beginning of year election years tend to be flat the first half, so i could easily see us up around call it 4,800 on the upside for the s&p, and then maybe go sideways for an extended period of time as we digest the potential for the election in 2024 >> so you think calls for 5,000 or -- not that it's, you know, percentage-wise much over 48 anyway, but up to 5,500, for example, you think those are too optimistic >> i think they're very yield dependent. if you're going to tell me yields can go to 4% and stay there, i don't think they're

optimistic we first have to get through 4.34 on the 10-year so punch through that support level if we can't do that, i think that's optimistic. i'll be the first one to say our call is in jeopardy if we're able to punch through the support levels on the ten-year yield. i think the good news around this is what we're seeing out of the triple-b spreads and the corporate credit markets is actually a continued contraction in that premium. that's good news so, it doesn't say or certainly suggests that there's not a recession on the horizon and that the slowdown is probably part of that soft-landing scenario or narrative a lot of people are having a hard time buying into and i think has become more of the consensus now than not >> your base case is 4,800 for '24? >> yeah. again, it's going to be yield dependent. i think that's pretty easy, fr frankly.

the first half i think will be more challenging i think we'll have the resistance levels in call it february i think we probably buy some time till summer and we can start to move from there that's how i would see it, again, yield dependent so far i like what we're seeing out of the yields. we should get some contraction >> what looks to you like it's ready to break out you could have a lot of false signals by virtue of the strength we've had this month. i can give you small caps like we've been talking about for the entire program, which are up 10%. now, i don't know to you if that means that they're poised for a breakout that the chart looks so great. what do you say? >> that's one of the keys. there's two things we're watching from a broad index level. one is the msci all-world index, everybody but the u.s. that's still a downtrend it's probably more of a neutral trend at this point, but we'd like to see that break out

it's above the 200-day moving average. that needs to keep going still in good shape. that would roll over first go down to the microcaps, which is basically anything under $100 billion, and that one, while it's still ascending, it is overbought, but with more of a momentum player to it than not, there's a lot more work that needs to be done there to even change the trend i still think that that sort of dark cloud is over this market some people call it the breadth divergence that will still be with us that's not that negative for the s&p, but certainly that has not changed its stripes as far as we're concerned. the one thing that is important here is beta has been part of this leadership off the low. that's an important component. it tends to have a seasonality to it so it's not unusual to see it you get the tax law things and a lot of stuff happening it will be what those names do in january if they continue to outperform

on a relative basis, that will be very good news for 2024 if they stall and weaken, i think we're in the same kind of environment, a broad trading range that will be more challenging for 2024 as we get into january, i think those two components will be very important to watch and determine what the remainder of the year will look like. >> what about financials i'm looking at them. they're green for the year only 3%. of the sectors that are green year to date, they're the worst performing next to materials >> look, historically if you go back and loo look at the last federate hike of every cycle, what needs to happen for a good outcome for equities, banks need to start performing. they haven't changed their t stripes. the bank index needs to break out through 90 to suggest there's a trend change that remains a big question mark in this tape

i would fully agree with that assessment that you laid out there. >> jeff, i appreciate it see you soon >> thank you >> jeff degraaf. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. steve kovak is standing by with that amazon's billion-dollar robotics deal is in peril, and crypto from binance is in trouble. olukai slippers are so comfortable, you won't want to take them off. and with that outdoor worthy sole, you don't have to.

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about 20 from the bell steve kovak, what stocks are you watching >> coinbase is high owner the wake of binance's settlement with the justice department last week coinbase's ceo told cnbc he hopes the crypto industry can now turn the page and start a new chapter after its recent scandals today's gains at a strong month for coinbase, set for its biggest monthly gain since january. and irobot sinking today as the european commission says amazon's deal for the company may restrict competition in the robot vacuum space amazon will continue working with the commission to address the concerns down 19% up next, activist action

elliott making a big push to shake things up at one company it's not their first rodeo we'll tell you about the details. later, shares of roku are popping.

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welcome back crown castle, one of the top performers in the s&p today, as elliott is calling for a shake-up at that company leslie picker has those details. >> the communication infrastructure reit is on the move up about 4% thanks to a renewed push by elliott management, seeking changes at the top, a strategy pivot, and improved corporate governance. they write, "crown castle suffers from a profound lack of oversight by the board, which has contributed to its irresponsible stewardship and flawed financial policy. shares of crown castle down significantly this year, about 21%, well yolt saying it owns about $2 billion worth of the stock. elliott's main concern involves crown castle's fiber business, which the firm says has received

too much capital for too little return and should be re-e re-ev re-evaluated they look forward to reviewing elliott's materials and remains confident in the executive leadership as the company continues to act in the best interests of all shareholders. elliott intends to make its case directly to investors at the company's 2024 annual meeting but prefers to work constructively with the board. the window to nominate directors opens in about six weeks in mid-january. >> not the first time that elliott has gone after this company, which is really interesting, considering all of the activist cases that they've decided to pursue. >> you're right. there was a lot of fanfare when they first launched a campaign at crown castle in june 2020 at that time, they were calling for the same changes with regard to potential missed roi

opportunities in the fiber business, potential shake-up of leadership on the board, and so forth. what happened at the time was the company wound up replacing three of its directors, and elliott kind of slid away quietly. now it's basically popped back up three years later, very similar laments, although leaving that door open for a potential proxy fight given that three years ago, nothing really changed according to elliott in terms of what they wanted to fix strategically to really drive up that underperformance they were highlighting >> we'll see where it goes this time leslie picker, thanks so much. following the money as always. up next, our cyber monday movers we're wrapping up a few crucial days for the retailers which names are outperforming today, the ones likely to win this holiday season as well. in the u.s. we see millions of cyber threats each year. that rate is increasing as more and more businesses move to the cloud. - so, the question is... - cyber attack!

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or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley all right. we're in the "closing bell market zone. mike santoli will break down the latest trades. julia boorstin is following the rally in roku shares today michael, we're digesting after thanksgiving still >> we are. markets are acting as if it's in a pretty comfortable spot at these levels obviously, short term, you can make the case that a four-week sprint higher has gotten it a little stretched but in general, yields, 10-year below 4.4, all the things we

were worried about, real scares, the regional bank crisis, then six months late we are the yield meltdown you needed them to sort of test whether or not you can rebuild confidence in a soft-landing scenario we more or less got there. you've been talking about the strategists' outlook for 2024. nobody is outright fighting the market as much as they were a year ago because that certainty about a coming recession is definitely diluted by now the market has behaved there's another moment coming. you won't get lib rated from the sensibility out there. you can kind of enjoy it where we are, seasonals, all the rest of it, kind of carry the day for a little while, even if the week after thanksgiving sometimes is a bit of a payback >> the last sort of hurdle of late was nvidia earnings >> sure. >> the stock peeled back a little bit, but it was 500 bucks. >> it's been pretty manageable

i've been watching the stocks outside of pure tech that have been making new highs. there are a handful of them. they're kind of the compounder are traditional growth-type names like chipotle, h&r block that have these tech-like attributes they haven't build up enough of a head of steam that the nongrowth parts of the tape are working like that. >> the consumer off to a good start. courtney reagan, black friday was good i'm assuming cyber monday is in full swing as well >> yeah, scott adobe upped expectations for cyber monday today after the stronker than expected results over the weekend online. i talked to executives from third-party logistics. they say cyber monday is starting off better than expected here so far there's a lot of the day left to go the e-commerce etf is outperforming the broader

market, up about 0.75% today shopping trips are up 4.5% on the retailers with walmart and ebay seeing the biggest increase in trips nearly 54% over last cyber monday followed by home and garden at nearly 48% health and beauty has been called out over and over as strong, today again by shopify, retail next, and others, both in store and online raymond james saying ulta is among a top pick american eagle as well as abercrombie called out as winners by deutsche bank shares of those companies are higher by about 3% today with a lot of retail still left adobe thinks this cyber week, thanksgiving through today, could represent about 17% of all holiday online sales we're in an important stretch.

so far, so good. we have a long season this year between thanksgiving and december because of that early thanksgiving >> courtney, thank you that's another part of the story, mike. >> i think you can broaden it out and say when americans have the money to spend, they spend it they mostly do i think the more value orientation is maybe more of a zero-sum type of game in terms of products in this competition. i don't think you've seen a lot to say you see mass consumer fatigue. it's more fraying around the engs it has held up people are talking about motorcy microscopically in the unemployment rate and whether that has momentum. but people have job, 4% wage growth >> a little bit of softening in the labor market is what people

will say that's why we think the story is intact to begin with >> exactly >> julia boorstin, roku up 9%. >> surging up nearly 9% towards the close. can bonn nal research upgrading the stock to buy and raising its 12-month price target on roku shares to $116 cannonball is a smaller research firm, but it seems to be driving that stock higher today, the firm making an argument for connected tvs representing a 27% growth in ad revenue in the fourth quarter for roku and forecasting 17.5% growth in video ad revenue for roku next year roku shares, we have to note, are now up about 154% this year, though the stock is still way down below roku's all-time highs back in 2021

scott? >> julia, thank you. a comment on this stock, also in the context that julia lays out, what the stock has done. >> it was above $450 at one point, 2 1/2 years ago aside from what's going on with the business, there is a bit of an echo boom happening if you look at the 2021 spec stocks like coinbase and sofi roku it seems like now we're coming back around to the rebundling story for streaming and the ad opportunity for streaming. that's always been the story with roku from the beginning, when it was $450 to when it crashed. people are coming back around to it the advertising side, i always view it more from the advertiser perspective, which is they're at a loss, because linear tv is going down it's the biggest ad market no pool they can get to.

>> a couple commodity-related stories, one we talk about all the time, oil, just right at 75 bucks, wti, and one we never talk about, gold, just above $2,000 >> gold has people excited the chart people are interested at this level. they grade it on a curve real rates went unand gold didn't go down that much what i find interesting is is it also rallying because rate-cut expectations are building. in other words, is it not so disengaged from what the rest of the asset markets are trying to look ahead to, which is peak fed, peak yield, peak inflation, all those things maybe working the other way to the benefit of financial assets and maybe gold is a part of that. also, it has gotten recharged with the instability in the middle east and the movement of money elsewhere. it's going up alongside crypto >> as many asset classes as we could get to

there's the bell a touch negative across the board. see you tomorrow "closing bell overtime" with jon fortt is next. the scorecard on wall street pretty flat. welcome in i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today. coming up this hour, transportation secretary pete buttigieg is going to join us to talk about the first meeting of the supply chain resilience council as the biden administration tries to prevent future stalls and fight inflation. and former wells fargo ceo joins us on the outlook for the fed and when he thinks federate cuts could start and we're kicking off cloud week

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