aws reinvent, on generative a.i. i think there are a lot of perceived risks, and these companies are trying to leverage that, as well. that's something to watch for, but it's not going to be a tailwind >> we'll leave it there. scott, thank you >> thanks, jon >> and that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight as the holiday shopping season kicks into high gear, the early winners are the e-commerce kings. will this be the year the onliners trounce the big box names? plus, a new study revealing that lilly's mounjaro is a better drug for weight loss than ozempic. the doctor behind those results will join us in just a few minutes from now. and later, a glittering milestone for gold one foot out the door at foot locker, why one of our traders

is selling and the options action for salesforce ahead of results this week i'm sara eisen in tonight for melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight, tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we're going to begin with a mixed bag of early holiday shopping results spending on black friday was up almost 8% versus last year cyber monday expected to post solid gains this year, too but heavy promotions and deep discounts have been the driving force to boost in-store traffic. the early winners so far include shop if i, etsy, amazon, as shoppers have been content to search for deals from their couch instead of braving the crowds the early winners here on the retail space have embraced buy now, pay later that was a big sub story today check out shares of affirm, the stock closing out the day up over 12% over the last 30 days, affirm is up 75% so, what does this seemingly mixed start to the season tell us about the consumer, the

economy, and retail? and what to do with these stocks karen? are you surprised? >> i am a bit. we've heard a lot about the consumer being weak in the last several weeks and so, this would sort of fly in the face of that. one of the names shocked about etsy, which is one that i own, so, this is only an e-commerce site i love the etsy model, which is very asset-light, all they do is just take a posting fee and they take a per stage of every transaction. and so, i also think this is something a little more unique and shoppers can find something a little less expensive. i love the way that's positioned we saw target last week, which was sort of a reprieve what we thought would be terrible, so, maybe this shouldn't have been a surprise i am surprised with how strong it seemed to be today. but still, i don't know, how many days left in the season a lot can happen extra days this year, too. >> what do you think of this trend, guy, that's shaping up where the online retailers are doing better than in-store,

which typically happens, but -- >> makes sense >> in this environment, where we were expecting it to be weak, because of all the guidance that we got from retail >> yeah, what's interesting is, some of the stocks that have seemingly left for dead, tim talked about this last week, gap stores, for example, look at the move we've seen in gap, the relief rally we've seen in target, but that suggests they're operating better or a relief rally this is the way i look at the consumer out there the retailers across a swath of companies have talked about basically things slowing down in a meaningful wail in 2024. i agree with that. if california's any indicator, i think the unemployment rate in california is up to 4.8% that's typically a leading economic indicator for the rest of the country, maybe by six to nine months. if that is in fact the case, you're going to start to see a pretty severe move higher in the unemployment rate, which i don't think is going to be particularly positive. the bounces you've seen, in a target and a gap, are oversold

condition bounces that need to be sold at these levels. >> there were some signs of improvement in target, certainly in the profitability picture, gap, too, right? >> yeah, listen, again, improving -- target was a disaster target just basically got their inventories in order, but the problems they face, i think, are secular in nature. they're not going away any time soon gap stores problems have been in place for many years now target, for the last year and a half, two years. when you're in the middle in this environment, basically target as opposed to a walmart, you're in no man's land, and i think target is still there. >> dan >> you know, one of the more interesting things i read about the weekend and to your point about this shift more towards online, maybe that's the covid behavior working its way through. we heard a lot about the pull forward of the e-commerce behavior and seems like black friday is dead, it's going to be cyber month, november, from here on out but the article about amazon overtaking u.p.s., fedex, not

yet usps on deliveries they are expected to do 6 billion or something deliveries. this is amazon, alone, to packages here in the u.s and i think it sets the fact that bricks and mortar is going to have a tough time from here on out but i think that, like, we're going to hear great things out of amazon. to your point about the nichy stories, etsy and the like i think the department stores were very carlear, it's kind of over here. for the most part, it was not good, and if you do not have a good strategy, you're dead in the water in retail. >> i feel like the promotions online you had to go to the store to get the best deals, but there are steep discounts online >> yeah, well, indeed, and i think also the elongated, you know, cyber monday, black friday, this season's going on forever, so, the fact thos numbers are good over the weekend on a comp basis, those comps aren't the same, and the comps would make it tougher for them to hit those comps. amazon, by the way, as a stock, as a chart, that's a chart that's basically working off a

multi-year base, i think is breaking out to the upside and i think there's reasons for it i look across the retail space, and there's very different stories based upon segment the target versus walmart spread has been working because target was so bad it wasn't that their numbers were so good and the trends that have been so good for walmart, someone that's long walmart and loves the company, loves the execution, there's disinflation for sure, there may, in fact, be some deplace, and it gets back to the consumer this holiday period i think a lot of the retailers are very resilient here and i think the consumer is cautious guy was pointing this out, you look at a basket of goods, b bloomberg had a couple of quotes, in terms of a basket, $120 buys you what 100 bought you free covid i know gascheaper. there's no question this is traps lating and karen's got only interesting stuff to say later on in the show about a particular specialty retailer, i just think

depending on the sector you're in, where you sit, there are certain parts of, for example, athleisure, you pull forward a lot. >> it does feel like nobody's spending on home goods, but taylor swift tickets another way to play retail may be coming, because cnbc now confirming that shein, the major online retailer, has filed to go public this was first reported by "the wall street journal. could be one of the biggest ipos in years the last time they raised money in the private market, got a valuation of $66 billion and that was down by a third from its prior valuation this is a company that -- they don't call themselves fast fashion, they like the on-demand fashion. they have totally changed the model and captivated american consumers. don't call them a chinese company, they've been hard at work in washington trying to convince everyone. the manufacturing is done in china, the headquarters is in singapore and so is the ceo. the retail market is all over the globe, they don't sell in

china, and they have a huge growing market in the u.s. what do you think? >> well, i think it has a lot to not like in that, okay, you can call it, you know, on-demand, which is so different than fast fashion, i can't even begin to tell you how different it is, and you can say stthey're not a chinese company, but okay, they seem to be those are two things that are fairly out of favor. so -- we've seen with the kweb,, cut, however, here we are. so, this is one that i have to see the numbers, but i can't imagine i'll be gung-ho to jump into this one. i don't know, there's a lot -- there's a lot of competition, as well temu, and -- >> it is one of the most valuable startups, though. >> when you think about baba, we got to know it as the chinese amazon, but if you look on the flip side of that, look at pdd, okay so, a very unique retail model

out of china that stock is at 52-week highs, they are expected to do $28 billion in sales but then you look at jd and you look at baba on the flip side of the models we know, and i say that this is a very different model than those i know you guys have been talking about shein a lot on cnbc -- >> well, there's a reason. it has more than 330 million customers around the globe it's really taken people by storm, and i think has revolutionized -- they have a secret algorithm where orders -- it's -- they have designers that work on the clothes but the algorithm helps sort of determine what consumers want based on what they're ordering >> how do you think our regulatory -- >> it's not a china company -- >> i know. >> i think that consumers like $5 skirts and that's really what i think has been revolutionary they don't have any inventory, so -- >> guy, why are you smirking

>> why are you looking at me i'm smiling because i'm happy. it's a monday night, rangers play tonight, i'll say this quick -- >> breaking news we're jumping on it. >> real quick. in terms of fundamentals, we've learned the hard way at times in alibaba. fundamentals don't matter. a lot of this is pred kated on how the stocks trade if the fundamentals mattered in a name like alibaba, the stock would be twice where it's trading at now we can talk about fund mamentall you want, but you have to understand how to trade them alibaba at 77 i think is interesting. >> interesting >> as a trade, yeah. >> let's dig a little deeper now on the early returns from black friday weekend courtney reagan has been live all day in ecochino, californiaa a walmart fulfillment center what are your takeaways from the first few days of the holiday season >> yeah, you know, i think it is really interesting, the traction that we've seen online, especially what we heard out of the retailers for the third quarter, where many of them

reported digital sales down year over year, in some cases more so than the sales in-store. i do think it's interesting the data we've gotten from retail next, which tracks shopper traffic in-store, and both said they were stronger than expected on black friday, so, i think there's something to be said there. i was at a mall on black friday, i saw it sort of pick up all day long i think it's just proving that the consumer is much stronger and still has dry powder than at least some executives were worried about for this first big weekend. but we do still have a very long season, because of how early thanksgiving fell. that being said, walmart's cfo kept talking about how he had gotten more cautious on the consumer because consumers were buying during these promotional events, but less so before and after, which makes the weekend like this really, really important. that being said, as you mentioned at the top of the show, sara, adobe increasing expectations after what they heard over the weekend online.

i talked to executives at third party logistics companies, ship bob and radial, and they fulfill orders for a lot of the specialty retailers online, but a lot of some of the big box retailers, and all of them said that they are really bullish on what's going on this season, and so far today >> courtney, how indicative are black friday and cyber monday sales for the rest of the holiday season >> yeah, so, it's a really important weekend. adobe does think that this thanksgiving to cyber monday period could make up 17% of the total online sales for the whole season but what ends up happening, sara, you see the bump now and you sort of see the lull for a couple weeks consumers wait until those expedited shipping cutoffs start to sort of fall for their favorite retailers online, and then you see spending pick up again. and then the last saturday before christmas is always really, really important so, i expect to sort of see this roller coaster of action for traffic both online and

in-store, which is why this week becomes so important for retailers to grab as much as they possibly can when it comes to sales and traffic, because we kind of die off a little bit when it comes to interest in shopping, and we take advantage of other things during the season, like celebrations, travel, you talk about going to see concerts and things like that to help celebrate the season in a more normal way, which retailers have sort of pointed out, this seems like a much more normal season in the way that consumers want to celebrate it, than they've seen in the last several years. >> courtney, thank you just watching the packages zip by in the background courtney, thank you. maybe the soccer nets i ordered for my kids from walmart are back there >> why -- you say that, if they're watching -- >> they're not watching. >> how do you know this? >> because they usually don't watch. >> there more "squawk on the street" folks. >> disappointing >> they've been watching a lot of sports lately they were on cnbc on friday. >> hold on we have time does that mortify you or does

that make you happy? >> that they're watching sports? it does not mortify me >> it's good watch the ranger game tonight. msg network. >> they watched the michigan game on saturday they watched the eagles. we stayed up late. f-1 is why i got into it -- >> killer doc that you did >> thank you >> that was all inspired by them let's trade this this retail story, which is important, because we have to figure out what's going on with the consumer it's not really clear. what do you think? >> i think the consumer is still there. they've had some headwinds and tailwinds. the headwinds are just talk of the consumer being under pressure, that's one the tailwind is definitely still employed, wages still going up, oil coming down, those are all good things. and interest rates, of course, that's been a big thing. so, maybe some of the retailers that have been really hurt, a home depot and a lowe's, are starting to see a little bit of life as rates come down and the idea that, okay, maybe real estate will recover, the -- >> didn't get that today

>> no, we didn't, but those stocks are doing better. >> yes and what was california -- >> 4.8, i believe. 4.7 in september, i believe it's 4.8 now. the fed would never acknowledge this, but they want the unemployment rate across the country between 4.5% and 5%. i think they're going to get what they wish for and i don't think that's particularly bullish. >> especially if the consumer has a job and we have record unemployment and this is what you get from the consumer i mean, it's not a great stake, or speak to. and just quickly on affirm, this whole thing that you see -- such a seller of that one, again, take this rally you've seen from 12 to 29 if you think credit is getting better for the consumer, if you think this company, their funding base and profitability -- call it a company that survived and basically was built, i think, off of free money. that's a stock that's had a huge move, and i think you're fading that one >> major wall street firm delivering its 2024 s&p 500 forecast today wells fargo securities going

with 4625. just 75 points from today's close. chris harvey is behind the forecast chris is the firm's head of equity strategy. so, you think the market does nothing next year? >> whole lot of nothing. >> why >> why, because if you look at things, right, it's really hard to get excited if we have better growth, then the fed doesn't do anything. if we have worse growth, then numbers are going to come down, the fed will eventually cut, the second half will be better, but the first half is going to be really, really sloppy. so, we just can't get excited about things and the other issue is, everyone's moved over to one side of the boat credit spreads are at year to date tights, equity market is up 20%, the vix is at 13. every time we have gone into a new year with the vix at 13, we've seen spikes. and it's just not a great setup into 2024. >> i feel like the consensus is a little more positive than you are right now. this idea that we might go into another year with no recession, everyone expected it this year, didn't happen. >> right >> if we don't have one again

next year, that's a soft landing, and the fed might start to cut, which could be good news >> here's the problem with that, the cost of capital is a lot higher this year than it was last year, right and if the cost of capital is higher, multiples can't go higher the growth we have is pretty -- it's okay. it's not great you can only have a big recovery if you have a big recession, and that just hasn't occurred. at the end of the day, you are stuck in this catch- 22. things are better, fed's more hawkish. things are worse, numbers come down and things aren't great there, either. >> chris, we're in a sub-13 vix environment, and you hear you that you don't see a lot of upside the things you're worried about, i am, too, but do we go to 4650 just kind of dribble higher? think about the year we've had, the volatility within the lines, think about some of the dynamics, where you have a nasdaq rally 14% in, you know, 20 sessions. just kind of curious how you see, because a lot of people, especially with the broader and the more constructive potentially rates environment,

asset allocation perspective, that wouldn't be terrible if it was a smooth, calm road. >> can we go higher? sure, we can go a little higher, but i just don't think you can go a ton higher. people talked about 5,000. i don't see how you get to that level. and if you look at corporate bonds, if you look at the alternatives, there are things that are pretty attractive i hate to see that, being the head of equity strategy, but you can park money and the front of that curve and not put on a whole lot of risk. >> chris, we want to talk about the market is not a monolith, so, do you think there is pockets within, like, say the russell 2,000 or something like that, where you could see different growth and then maybe the magnificent seven take a breather for awhile? >> so, we want to be really constructive on small caps but we just can't get there, because there's too much balance sheet leverage they are really oversold, but until we see the fed cutting rates, we can't get there. as far as other sectors, i hate to say it, but the magnificent -- it's not so much the magnificent seven, but the

uber caps are still in a good place. they are not as effective as rates. they have better growth rates, better balance sheets. valuation isn't horrific this is not the 1990s. and they can still work in that kind of environment what we want to do, we want to go to places that are oversold. we just upgraded utilities today, we upgraded health care those are areas that have good valuations decent fundamentals, and most people really aren't there at this point in time >> chris, guy and i had a conversation last week with liz ann saunders from tschwab you can look at the sort of stuff that's underperformed this year, in a year that the s&p is up 18% how do you -- is that making your job harder? karen just asked you about small caps, but there's a lot of things that have been going on under the surface. we pointed out on the show here, if you think about things in monolithic terms and say, how

can the market go higher with the banks acting that bad, does that give you some hope that maybe a lot of folks that have 5,000 and up targets at the end of 2024 could be right >> listen, you can -- they can also be right, i can also be wrong. the issue, i think you hit on something that's perfect so, just talking about the economy, what we've been talking about is an economic malaise it takes a ton to bring the u.s. economy into recession, it takes a ton to bring it up to 3% but we've had this kind of asin cron news growth that just makes this kind of lackluster type of growth. so, and we think we're going to see that going forward, and until we see some -- a real washout, one of the things we were talking about, we go back to silicon valley. that was an even it wasn't a clearing event a lot of balance sheets, a lot of people still have situations they need to clear out if you look at the banks, you look at the insurance companies, people have duration on and they're under water on a lot of these positions.

it's hard to put on duration at this point in time, and that's keeping the cost of capital higher as long as that stays higher, it's really hard for me to get to a much higher price target. >> chris, thank you for coming in love post thanksgiving when the new year's outlooks come out even when they say nothing's happening. let's trade it tim? >> i think there is a barbell approach right now, it's hard for me to believe that the leadership we've had is the leadership we won't continue to have and i -- >> will or won't -- >> we will continue to have the same leadership. maybe it said two double negatives. >> i don't know. >> i think there is an opportunity to make money in utilities and staples and energy and health care. and i think they will be defensive sectors next year, for some of the obvious reasons. but if we peaked in rates, in some of the dynamics, people were looking at the utility companies and saying they can't actually exist in the new rate environment, that's one of the reasons i think they overshot to the downside my overall view is the

leadership, though, is important that we've had, as much as we want market bred i think it's going to be tough >> 28% of the s&p is the magnificent seven. coming up, don't call it a comeback crypto's rerival boosting coin base to 18-month highs can coin keep climbing we're going to debate that next. plus, a shining safe haven gold jumping to six-month highs as the dollar dips the 24-karat trade when "fast money" returns back in two minutes.

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welcome back to "fast money. coinbase popping 4% today. up 70% in the last month this comes after major rival binance was hit by the department of justice with a $4 billion settlement last week dan and tim flagging the move earlier. do you stick with it kind of surprising, given all the drama. >> i don't think you do. and i'm going to say for two reasons here technically, if you take the name off it, what they do, you'd say, that's a beautiful-looking chart, it's breaking out but i think about what the opportunity is, relative to what the opportunity is going to look like if there's bitcoin etfs in a year from now, i say to

myself, okay, well, if margins are the big issue here, i mean, this company, you know, is not profitable right now, despite the fact they made great strides towards profitability over the last couple of years margins are going to come in really hard here, and this is going to look like a very expensive stock, and i think they're going to have a lot of competition for people that want exposure to bitcoin. >> i think that's the story. i'm long the stock i'm long it over the last six months, so, it's been a good run. i think the etf reality means bitcoin, unless you believe outside of, you know, ethereum and bitcoin are going to be wide open, and it a brand new frontier, which a lot of people thought, that's why you wanted to own conbase i think that's still in the pole position in terms of that leadership they do have a business around custody. they do have a business around surveillance and like insight into what's going on are those reasons to pay a big multiple for the stock probably not ask bank of new york on what custody can do for you, but i do

think that the etfs have inspired the move higher in bitcoin, which inspires the move higher in coinbase we know that the correlation, we know also the lag effect of coinbase to bitcoin, so, after rallying 32%, relative to bitcoin over the last three weeks, after underperforming by 54%, i think there's a little more to go, but i think there's more to go in the short to medium term before we have to ask the questions about what's real here. >> here's the question one of the bullish premises, there's going to be increasing adoption of bitcoin as an investment, whatever it is, from institutional investors, first, there's sbf, now there's cz, it's -- constant pattern here of criminal behavior, and fraud which doesn't that make it more dangerous? >> here's the good news about brian armstrong, the ceo and founder of this company, he's been at the forefront of dealing with regulators. >> yeah. >> seems like that is a well-run company, to be very clear. this is not an indictment. i'm not saying anything negative

about the company. if you were an investor and excited about bitcoin as an asset class or whatever you think it is, you're going to have lots of ways to get exposure to that, not just buying the, you know, bitcoin or -- >> you don't think it's a turnoff? >> well, look, coinbase's biggest risk is the regulatory risk and s.e.c it could be upside if you think they're going to win and settle this dynamic so, i agree with dan, though, i think you have a case here w where, i mean, look, anything can happen anything can happen in any board room, in any public company. but this is a company that i think has been around improvement through some difficult times to actually survive. the bigger issue, what's their business model if, in fact, people want to own two securities in the digital space? and i doubt that's what they do want to own. >> brian armstrong telling cnbc europe today, we can turn the page now, after this money laundering scandal by buy nance. there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next on the show

sitting on a gold mine the pressure metal hitting six-month highs, as the dollar heads south. so, how should you trade the moves? plus, the obesity drug battle rages on, and a new study could be tipping the scales. the names taking the lead ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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low. g guy, you wanted to do this -- >> you hate this gold thing. >> i always like talking about the dollar >> let's talk about both >> okay. >> gold hung in there. when the dollar was raging higher, and ten-year yields were 5%, historically, that's an environment fwhere gold goes down -- >> why not >> why not because gold is absolutely in play now rates are coming down, central banks continue to buy. in 2022, they bought a record amount, same amount this year. they are seeing something -- i've said this before, they are hedging their own ineptitude if the dollar goes lower, that tail wind continues to be there. if we cross over this recent all-time high, every hedge fund institution that is not involved in gold will try to get there at the same time. >> i'll raise you and tell you, look at a 20-year chart of gold, sara, i know you do, because you look at long-term charts of all this stuff, and i believe in long cycle investing i think the dollar has been in a 13-year bull market that i think

is running out of steam. i think gold, that 20-year chart has done exactly what gold -- why isn't gold rallying? there was always a good reason to buy gold. >> deflation, inflation, it's all good >> it's not supposed to go up 20%, 30% a year. it's had those moments you look at a chart of gold and you correlation that with the free money, the qe, and the fed gone crazy, and that's exactly what this last 20 years really 15 years have been about, and gold's a great chart look at that chart and tell me if, you think you're buying a store of value in something that's not supposed to -- >> no matter what is happening with the dollar? >> i was being sarcastic i feel like gold -- they always say -- >> did you get pull into that? >> every reason is good for gold >> it's not always >> it's not. >> gold just moved up when the dollar moves down and -- >> i want to ask you a favor >> 13-year bull market and -- >> gold breaks out to the upside and it's the lead story on cnbc, invite tim seymour and g-swizz

here -- >> you have to have dollar weakness for gold -- >> not necessarily, but i -- >> what do we have now >> we have dollar weakness, but isn't the u.s. still in better shape than the rest of the world. >> isn't the dollar within 3% of all-time highs >> no. >> 110 -- >> dollar's had some significant weakness here over the last few months >> it has. but the dollar has been in a bull market largely and certainly from may of '21 to where we are now, dollar's up -- >> in that environment -- >> gold's done great 2 $20.55 is the level. the breakout above 2055 is one i think you start to get excited >> all right the men like gold. when we come back -- >> and she said she's inviting us on to talk about gold >> i'll sit next to -- >> front cover of cnbc.com new developments in the weigh loss drug race a new study pointing to a clear stand out in the obesity battle. one of the authors joins us next

to lay out which name is the heavier hitter. plus, talk about getting kicked while you're down foot locker lower after an analyst downgrade. and one of the traders as one foot out the door ahead of earnings more on that when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow thefa mon "stey" podcast. we're back right after this.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks taking a breather from their four-week rally, as investors return from the thanksgiving weekend the dow dropping 50 points s&p and nasdaq slightly lower. action afterhours in zscaler. top and bottom line beat and strong guidance. microsoft hitting an all-time high today on a tear recently, up more than 53% so far this year. a real world study of 18,000 patients showing mounjaro is up to three times more effective for weight loss in overweight and obese adults when compared to novo nordisk's ozempic. those results not helping shares of either lilly or novo today, each down about a percent and a half here to dig into the results of the study, dr. nick stuckey, an

infectious disease physician with providence health doctor, thank you for joining us so, tell us what this study shows. >> yeah, thanks for having me. this study is really out ahead of the randomized control trials comparing the effectiveness of mounjaro versus ozempic in overweight and obesity, and so, what we showed was using patient data from patients that are out there receiving this drug on-label or off-label. we're able to show that mounjaro is quite a bit more effective than ozempic, and what we see, like, specific stats, those that achieved 15% weight loss are three-times more likely to be on mounjaro versus ozempic, so, that's kind of the high level finding. we also see that over time, three, six, and 12 months, that the benefit of mounjaro is actually increased, so, more

likely to achieve greater weight loss, even farther out >> has anything ever been done like this, where the two have been compared and contrasted and by the way, doctor, neither of them are approved, right, for obesity and weight loss, though their sourt of sister drugs are. >> that's exactly right. those are a few really good callouts first of all, the randomized control trial is under way, and will be, you know, it is expected in maybe six months to a year, so that's one benefit here we are looking at the diabetes dosage of these two drugs, and so, you're right that the obesity dosage will be higher, but really able to look at what we would expect to see when that randomized control trial comes out in, you know, the coming year >> doctor, can you talk a little bit about, so, the patients are taking this for obesity, some of the other trials that have gone on around heart attack and stroke and sort of, you know,

how this ties into this whole conversation because i know there's lots of different trials going on for lots of different ailments >> yes, 100% i mean, we've seen benefit in kidney disease and cardiovascular outcomes. american heart association conference was two weeks ago, and there was some new data showing striking improvement in cardiovascular outcomes, and what we're really trying to do now is, like, understand where these benefits are, and what's driving them, because these things are acting both, you know, increasing insulin, but also increasing satiety in patients leading to lots of great outcomes but everybody is just moving as quickly as possible, which is where i think having this data really helps, because we can look across, you know, 18,000 patients and through our data set of 100 million electronic health records to do this, like, advanced research. >> dr. stu cky, thank you for

being on the mounjaro patients were three times more likely to lose 15% of their body weight. >> exactly. >> does that mean 10% versus 30% of the people were able to lose 15%? what were those underlying numbers? and then, on average, what does the -- what do the different populations lose >> yeah, so, it's really about the time base. so, you know, going out a year is where we see the most common we see that 15% weight loss, and we see, like, a really -- the most pronounced difference going out a year from -- from, you know, those patients being on it, and that makes a lot of sense, right the longer the patient is on it, the more benefit they're going to see the high level numbers that i have here, you know, we saw 6% of patients on mounjaro, or patients on mounjaro at three months lose on average 6% of their body weight, compared to 3.6% with ozempic, and going out 12 months, it's 15.2% from

mounjaro versus 8% for ozempic, so that should give you an idea of some of those average numbers. >> and just finally, why did you guys do this who commissioned this study? >> yeah, great question. well, you know, our mission is saving lives with data, and we do -- i lead the internal research team, we're really trying to advance health across the country, where we can, and so, we do take on a few of these studies as we're able, and, of course, we work with our health care systems and life science partners to real i will make a big impact >> would you still prescribe to your patients ozempic, because of the big gap here in efficacy or not >> yeah, that's a great question i definitely would i mean, these things have been -- all the glp-1s have been revolutionary in treating a variety of diseases, and, of course, as we know with shortage and, you know, your insurance may cover one and not the other, and so, i think it's important to remember that they're all

effective, and these are really revolutionizing things for us, so, i wouldn't hesitate, and it's just -- what we're seeing is one is quite a bit better than the other >> all right, dr. stucyk, thank you for joining us than >> thank you, everyone >> tim >> i look at the two stocks and i look at the valuations and the addressable market and all the uncertainty, and the demand, which is more or less being satisfied. i think the multiples are probably justifijustified. at this point, though, i think there's still a lot of unknowns in terms of the competitive landscape. i think the stocks are fully priced, and at this point, you know, allocating fresh dollars there, look, i recognize lilly has been a must-own and there are people that still own it, that go home long every night and say, i believe in this company. i'm just not there >> $560 billion company trading at 48 times next year's numbers, which has scared people away for

the last year, year and a half, incorrectly. if we can pull up a chart over the last year, at least six times, maybe more, this stock has given you a chance to buy it off a 25% to 30% peak to trough decline. and i'm not suggesting we're here now, but to tim's point, you want to own this stock you don't want to rush into it here >> all right, when we come back, one of our traders is waving the white flag on foot locker. why this name is being given the boot that's up next

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welcome back to "fast money. booted citigroup downgrading foot locker to sell karen finerman also hitting the sell button on the stock today shares of foot locker now down nearly 40% this year there were such high hopes for mary's return. -- sold af sold half this position today. i've noticed, being on the street a long time, you have an analyst come out right in front of the earnings with a downgrade -- >> bold. >> bold, right bold step to take. but sometimes the way it works is that they have a good sense

of it, because maybe management wants to talk down earnings. they want to lower the expectations around the street, right? so, there's two parts of the way stocks react to earnings if they can lower expectations, then maybe the reaction won't be so bad i have no idea if that's what happened here or not, but in my experience, i've seen that happen a number of times i'm a little bit concerned about the consumer and i have been very, very frustrated with the first few quarters for mary dillon i want to give her more time, but i just feel like at this point, and i'm actually -- it's a tax thing, as well, i have 32 days now to buy it back before the end of the year if i want to get the loss, so, for all those reasons, it's still -- she's early, early in the revamp, there's a lot to do here, and the stock actually is not cheap, it's cheap if she ever gets it going, but it's not like a macy's, that was super cheap, even on, you know, low

expectations this is expensive on probably low expectations so, for those reasons, i sold half, i'm thinking about what to do with the other half it's been disappointing. i had a lot of high hopes for mary dillon. i think she's -- >> good things at ulta >> fantastic things at ulta, which i am long. and it's really been disappointing. we knew about the nike relationship for a long time, that's changing, and they seem to have been slow to, i mean, they do have hoka, all that, but they are in the middle of this giant revamp, she's making the super stores and spending a lot of money so, i don't know i had to just -- one foot is out the door and i'm wavering on the other foot >> that's, by the way, i think that's really interesting what she's doing, and a lot of p people, if they are down in a position, try to wait for that day. i wanted to get back to x, the fact you are doing what you're doing makes a lot of sense citi bank in their note talked about mary dillon, they said the

difference between ulta and foot locker may be the relationship with the brands that work so well with ulta may not be the same relationship, and again, they have -- you know, they have -- we know about nike, we know about the dynamics here, but i think athletic is very pressured here. >> yeah, well, they had a good run and certainly in covid. when we come back -- that would be a good study to look at the analyst actions before earnings to see how accurate they are, the sell rating. generative a.i. can do it. ready, set, report. we've got a slew, speaking of, tech and retail names on deck to release earnings this week. our mike khouw joining us with the options next. more "fast money" in two minutes.ona, did here would be an emblem of what small communities can achieve. trying to give a better life to people that don't have the means to do it. si mi papá estuviera vivo, sé que él tuviera orgulloso también de vivir de esta viviendo una vida como

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through the internet essentials program, the world opened up. fellas, fellas. that's how my son was able to find the hidden genius project. we wanted to give y'all the necessary skills to compete with the future. kevin's now part of this next generation of young people who feel they can thrive. ♪ ♪ welcome back to "fast money." we're gearing up for a huge slate of earnings this week. salesforce, ulta, crowdstrike, and a host of other consumer names are orn deck. let's get out to mike khouw for a look at how options traders are playing this slate. mike, what do you see? >> yeah, so, ulta, that one is going to be reporting on thursday. options did see above average volume and we see about a 6% implied move. sentiment there is bullish. i heard some people on the desk saying positive things about it. salesforce is going to be reporting on wednesday. that one's implying a move of

about 5%. overall options sentiment was slightly bearish there. but the one where we're expecting a good-sized move is crowdstrike. 7% implied move there, two times the coverage daily put volume. the busiest were the weekly 195 puts a purchase of 1,000 of those, buyer paid $1.96. they are expecting 8% to the downside by the end of the week. >> mike, thank you. dan? crowdstrike, salesforce? >> yeah, i think, you know, these guys off-cycle, they kind of suffer from a lot of the stuff we learned over the last few weeks, say 15% off of a four-month low, into the print. that's probably not a great setup, so, when you're seeing some defensive positioning, as mike just kind of detailed, that makes some sense to me, given valuations and the like here. that's the one i'd focus on, but you know, again, i think there's probably tape bombs -- when thing we learned from q-3 earnings is that q-4 visibility is really poor across lots of different sectors. i would expect that to get worse before it gets better. >> we can kind of look at both

as barometers of i.t spend, right? karen, ulta? >> it's had a nice bounce off the bottom. the low was $370. 16 and changes time earnings, which for ulta is pretty cheap. what i like about it, target really sort of talked about beauty is really one of their strong points. same, kohl's and se forare, so, i like the space at 16 times, i think it's good to own. >> one of the stronger spots in consumer spending right now seems like. all right, up next, your find trades.

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it is time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> sara, great to have you. i don't think we really properly brought her onto the -- >> always feel so welcome. >> always great to own gold. >> even to argue with you. >> gold move is very impressive. >> thank you. can't wait to talk about it on your show. gold now, gold next week, whenever. >> karen? >> big run in alphabet, selling

upside calls into the end of the year. >> oh. dan? >> yeah, given the data and the pricing dynamics in those glp-1s, maybe long lilly, shor novo. >> i'm going to go a little silver for you, paas, sara. >> all right, thank you. thank you guys for having me. >> thanks for being here. >> always fun. "mad money" my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to explain what's going on in the market. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. or tweet me @jim cramer. many stock