i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. european equities dip as investors assess the outlook for rate cuts and the bank of japan could finally be ready to tighten and the yen has the biggest one-day drop since january. chinese exports rise for the first time in six months and

president xi jinping is willing to make the u.s. the trade economic trade partner. italy is walking away from the belt and road initiative. crude prices pick up a little after slipping to the six-month low and wti dipping to the $70 mark. and carson block shorts blackstone saying a perfect storm looms for the commercial are property sector. >> we don't think there is any way they can maneuver out of this. we think starting next year, the business and cash flow will be under significant strain. warm welcome to "street signs." we will kickoff with the show with asia. there have been a couple of notable developments overnight. we start with the sdata out of

china. exports grew for the first time in six months. that is expectations of a 1% slide. policymakers hope this print means support measures are working in the economy. imports fell 1.6% on the year with an almost 3.5% growth which means it is still lagging. as for markets, the most notable move across equities in the overnight session is from japan. the nikkei 225 dropping 1.8%. we heard from a number of bank of japan officials. the deputy governor did not exactly foreshadow a tightening policy, but laid out a hypothesis of what would happen if rates went positive. markets interpreted could see a

normalization. we see the reaction in the yen. the dollar/yen dropped 1.5%. the biggest drop since january. it is still early hours. the governor, deputy governor, the bank of japan governor told prime minister fukushima says they will check to see if wages will rise. he also said there was no specific discussion on support for the yen. there has been a lot of comments flying back and forth, joumanna, that has driven this trade in japanese assets this morning. one thing for sure is markets were not expecting this given the moves. >> yeah. yes and no. we have been talking about the bank of japan moving away from interest rates for years. people got burned on the trade over the course of the year. it looks like it is finally happening. i think the timing is eironic.

now people are moving on from rate hiking to rate cuts. the bank of japan is sitting in their own universe and doing their own thing and finally insinuating they are ready to move away from negative interest rates. so far behind other central banks in the world. i was reading a report from " "deutsche bank" this morning and it stated a 30% chance at the next meeting with interest rates. jgp has moved up 11 basis points. that is breaking with the price action we are seeing in the yields all around the world. the theme for yields is lower. >> you brought me back to reality. this came as a surprise for investors. this timing took markets by

surprise. this is a long-time coming. investors have been burned so many times before. why is this so important for not just japanese assets, but broader market? it would remove the global anchor that kept costs relat relatively low. it could have a bigger impact on wider markets, not just japanese ones. we talk about the hand over from asia. it is not pretty with the nikkei which is moving down today. the chinese markets are also trading in the red. hand over from wall street is mildly negative. we are not talking about major pull backs and a lot of issues with the bond yields with the move in treasuries and european bond yields. ten-year bund as five basis points lower yesterday. again, as we spoke about yesterday, the catalyst for european markets is the change

in tone coming from the ecb indicating that we have reached the end of the rate hiking cycle. obviously, investors are very quick to start pricing in the rate cutting cycle. we start bringing that timing forward. today, the stoxx 600 is slipping down .30%. let's switch to individual boards. every major is under water. peripheries down .10% in italy with two sources confirming to cnbc they will pull out of the belt and road initiative. interesting timie going given te european leaders are in beijing today for the eu/china meeting. ibex in spain down .50%. cac 40 in france is down .th10%. and ftse 100 is down .25%.

we are seeing burberry seeing losses down 2% this morning. and airlines are coming under pressure as well. the british airways owner is at the bottom of the ftse 100 which is down 3%. in terms of sectors, this is the leadership. marginal in defensives. food and beverage up .20%. on the flip side, real estate down 1.4%. venovia is under selling pressure. travel and leisure. we have talked about the airlines and many posting record profits from the summer. markets are forward looking and the concern is geopolitical uncertainty and the moderate slowdown with the bookings ahead will weigh down on the sector. that is why travel is coming

under pressure today. let's talk about oil. oil prices have recovered a little bit of ground after plunging to a six-month low in the previous session. wednesday's tumble was largely driven by fears over u.s. output remaining near record highs despite inventory falling and the uncertainty of the demand outlook. opec producers agreed to extend existing production cuts into the first quarter. it was not enough to shore up the market. brent is trading at $75. we have come a long way down. i have to say, not directed at any one in particular, oil analysts seem to be persistently expecting upside pressures on oil. that has not materialized. it tells you a lot about positioning in the space. let's switch back on airlines. i touched on this with leadership in sectors. this is how it is trading. positive results yesterday with

the stock up 10% in trading. ieg and air france having a turbulent start and jpmorgan chase warned of pressure next year amid revenue concerns from capacity growth. the bank struck an optimistic view of budget airlines as ryanair as the top pick. let's switch and talk about yields and some of the price action we have seen in the last 24 hours. ten-year bund trading lower. trading at 2.2%. the rally continues. it was down five basis points yesterday. ten-year btp is coming off a bit this morning, but the mood is lower. the u.s. treasuries are coming up a little bit this morning. one basis point higher.

4.62. the ten-year note at 4.71%. it feels we have traveled a long way in the course of a couple of weeks. that is the big theme for investors as we head into 2024. how big of a rate cutting cycle will we get? let's see what is in store for today's session. s&p and dow looking to pull back. dow down 66 points. nasdaq looking at green this morning. we saw weakness with the s&p closing down .40%. losing ground for a third consecutive day. the magnificent seven struggled yesterday. we will keep an eye on those in today's trading session. let's welcome ozan here to the desk and studio. >> thank you. >> thank you. it is great to have you here on what turned out to be an exciting morning in fx markets with the move in the yen against

the dollar. the yen has the potential for policy normalization in japan. were you surprised by the comments and how much do you read into them? >> we have timely drama. it seems to make things interesting for us. one of analysts has rightly called for the end of ycc a bit earlier than others. the official call for end of negative interest rates is january. obviously, the market is ta targeting 5% for them to move in december than most people had gone to the pebeaches and mountains. the market is ready for it. it impacted the u.s. treasuries and yields like joumanna walked through. yesterday was down to 4.10.

i think it is temporary. i think rates will continue to be lower. >> what is your expectation for where broader rates go from here? it sounds like this impact is minimal compared to what is ultimately driving rates? >> i like to come to the program and give two views and let your viewers choose and give my side as well. >> that's three. >> three. hopefully three in a row will be right. fourth landing is recession. that is the big dilemma of the year. it continues to be. all joking aside, if this recession is the goal we are waiting for. a soft landing is winning. that's why we rallied in this november. inflation is falling. that is what we are afraid of in europe. overall, it is right. maybe it was transitory after

all. i think rates will continue to go lower and a lot of clients and friends were thinking and going for, most of us, the short-term rally. i think the pain will continue to be if the long end joins the party. >> so, you know, rate cuts are the theme for 2024. when i think about next year, the question is going to be how far will they cut? will they cut to take rates back to neutral or will they cut to make them accommodative again? you could say with 100 basis points rise baked in. for your view to materialize, does that not necessarily mean recession? >> i hear out the importance of the speed. we have been here before. i like how aggressive we all got. 175 basis points for the fed. 150 basis points for the ecb.

my european economist made headlines and cut expectation to april saying there is a chance in march. they won't be as aggressive at madame lagarde said one lesson she got from covid on high ground and she could have been more aggressive. this time around, she may go one more. i think even if that doesn't happen, equities can do all right. it is much better than the 3,450. it is not cutting for the right reason. if i'm wrong, if we feel harder rece recession and faster cuts materialize, maybe we fall first at 5%, but markets always like that sugar rush that the rate

cuts are coming. >> the market has moved on to expect rate cuts. if you listen to what the fed chair jay powell said last week, he said it's too early to talk about rate cuts. to what extent is data in the driver's seat? how closely are investors watching? >> i think december 12th cpi is important. this time around, for the short-term, bad data is bad news. if the payroll data is lower on the 100 or 150, that means rates and equities are lower. on the other side, if the wages are higher on december 12th, that means we may try equities and lower rates like most of the summer. and that may give us a better buying opportunities. the key thing that changed since the last time i was here, september to now, what is the

big reason we move? supply and oil. lower than expected supply. still high and falling oil. >> clearly that is giving confidence to the inflation outlook that oil has come down so much and helped for the growth side of things as well. let me wrap up on euro/dollar gu given your comments with the ecb and the ecb going before the fed. how should we see the range here? >> 105 to 110. i think it is too early. sad comment for my traders. that means low volatility. back to the soft landing. if soft landing is correct and equities continue to do well, it will do well for us. if europe falls into recession faster, madame lagarde has to

cut faster, we may go 105 or lower. we are getting excited about that, but the markets may be wrong on that one. >> ozan, one super final one. preview 2024. are people thinking about the possibility of trump returning? are people positioning for that? >> it's in the talks. it is earlier than usually to be discussed. usually he means softer dollars and push to equities. also, if it comes with fiscal spending and in the republican weight with steeper curves -- one final thing, january 13th with the taiwan elections. that is very important. taiwan autonomy may give us a bit more tension and that may be the excuse after the nice rally to take profits mid-january. watch that one. >> january 13th. put it in your calendar.

ozan, thank you. >> it is julianna's penultimate day before her maternity leave. >> for wonderful reasons. congratulations. >> thank you. ozan, vice chair from deutsche bank. coming up on "street signs," we will speak to the ceo of banxware, miriam wolf, after the break. hi. i'm wolfgang puck

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welcome back to the show. german fintech banxware allows 30 platforms in genermany has raised 29 million euro since the launch in 2020. we have miriam wohlfarth with us as well at annette. let me say how challenging it was to raise the funding in the course of higher interest rates

and the issue with money and liquidity available. >> thanks for having me. it was a huge ride and i have to say i have a fantastic co-founder. i have a co f-founder and co-ce who is excellent at raising money. it was a tough year because fintech was doing lending and it was difficult to find venture capital at the moment. it was really tough, but we made it. i'm super happy about this. >> miriam, it is annette here in frankfurt. what were the factors of the investors taking to your idea?

>> the key factors were to go and talk to strategic investors. we had the feeling of the capital investors did not really understand our business model deeply and they were afraid as they often are investing into something with debt on n non-performing loans and loans on the balance sheet. this is a highly regulated business we are doing. we started talking to banks directly. we found a lot of interest and a lot of understanding and the need they said which was something where they want to go to and i would say the banks fell in love with our technology. it is super easy online technology to give out loans and handle loans and do un

underwriting. it is a good example of how banks and finteches cafintechs e at the moment. >> would you say this kind of cooperation would be also the dominant way how to raise capital for the coming years given what joumanna just said with the higher interest rate environment and reluctance of the ve c investors to spend mon? >> that is depending on the macroeconomics situation around us andilize at the moment. we have to raise a lot of money. it is not so attractive and i could imagine there will be more strategic investors in the future. there are a lot of banks under pressure to do innovation.

it is also something when they com compare themselves to the banks in the u.s. and asia, they are not the number one innovators in the industry and this movement means banks in europe want to change something. i think in the future when you want to do innovation, you can't also do anything but yourself because technology has become so complex. i think in the past banks were general. they did everything. now you see more and more institutions that say i will focus on my core and the other things and move the corporation of fintech. i think it will be a trend we will see more banks going into relationships with fintechs. >> let me ask you also about germany as the place to actually

found a fintech. germany is not the most attractive place, but you have been setting up the company in the country. >> it is a twofold situation. germany is the country in europe besides russia that has the highest population. there is a huge market already. that is a positive thing. it is the largest european market by size of people. it has 3.6 million small businesses. there is a huge market already. therefore, it is worth it to go into the market. we cannot compare ourselves with estonia. it has the modern administration and founder-friendly environment and also regulation that is also

more founder friendly than germany. if i go in this market, it is a small market, but then tackle the germany market means it is about trust. that is about the german society. they like a lot of products and companies that they can trust. it is still, you never know how it will be in the future, the issue of trust when you are licensed and situated in germany and when you want to do your business in germany. that's my feeling actually. look at germany. there's no other -- >> go on. sorry. >> i wanted to add there is no other country in europe where dp google street view is blaocked that much. this is different in terms of

data protection and all these regulations. just think if you want to become a leading company here in the german market, you have to understand how the germans work and it helps to be regulated here. even if it is harder. s>> thank you so much, miriam, for your time and insight. with that, back to you, joumanna. >> annette and miriam, thank you for joining the show. coming up on "street signs," ca carson block bets against a key real estate sector. we'll tell you why after this break.

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tastes just like the ones they sell here. and for a whole lot less. i'm ruined. awww. kick your expensive smoothie bar habit to the curb. order yours now at blendjet.com. welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. investors assess the outlook for rate cuts in the new year and the boj signals it could finally be ready to tighten with the dollar/yen looks to the biggest drop since january.

and chinese exports rise and domestic demand is lacking and xi jinping is willing to make china a key economic trade partner. and oil is slipping to a six-month low with wti below the $70 mark with slowdown fears offset production cuts. muddy waters block shorts bl blackstone mortgage trust says there is something looming in the waters. >> we think starting next year, the big and cash flow will be under significant strain. we're now about an hour and a half into the trading session. it is worth looking at markets and seeing where things stand with the european session. we had a lot overnight in asia

with the bank of japan with investors re-pricing expectations for normalcy. as for european equities, we're trading lower. the spanish market is down .50%. ftse 100 is down .30. italy is hovering around the flat line. there are a number of corporates in focus. this move masks individual moves. british group ds smith posted a 15% drop in profits for the first half of the year. swatch notched 61 million pounds in the first half of the year which is down 20% on the year. and frasers group posted a

12.6% jump in the first half saying it is confident it can achieve profit of 550 million the pounds for the year 2024. it seems to be that the policy is paying off. and then publisher future which is home to "marie claire" posted a drop in pre-tax profit. and this early hour shows a mixed picture. dow jones industrial average is looking to drop slightly this morning by 70 points. we had particular weakness in the tech sector. shares of blackstone mortgage trust fell wednesday after muddy waters released a short position. carbon block said the rei t is

at risk for the position. block told cnbc he sees the reit running into issues next year. >> here is what we see is happening to blackstone. we think starting next year, the cash flow and business will be under significant strain because we extrapolate about 70% to 75% of the u.s. borrowers are unable to cover interest expense without interest rate swaps they put in place several years ago. >> also as part of the conference, i spoke to the cio at solo asset managements and asked why he is betting on a mining stock given the commodities and phasing out of fossil fuels. >> one plan is for those core

assets to be spun out and listed in the u.s. where there's more acceptance toward coal assets in europe. ea europe has a different view of how they want to trade commodities. g glencore will phase out in the next 10 to 15 years. and it is up to shareholders if they want to go through with the spinout or keep assets within the perimeter of the group. if that spinout happens, glencore will become a pure play in copper and metals business which is a key holding for anyone looking at an achievable energy transition. >> you can watch more from the conference and conversation on

cnbc.com. turning to politics. italy has quit the china belt and road initiative. italy was the major western country to join in 2019. the chinese firms saw the most benefit. several have higher exports to china despite not being part of the initiative. xi jinping said the country should not reduce cooperation with the eu due to competition. china is willing to make the eu a key economic and trading partner. european commission chief met president xi jinping in the first face-to-face meeting since 2019. von der leyen talked about how the two countries can ease tension. >> we have massive trade between

us. 2.3 billion euro a day and important investment stakes in each other's economies. as major powers in the world, european union and china have global responsibilities. we have a shared interest in peace and security and effective functioning of the rules based international order and to find solutions to global challenges. >> let's discuss more with charles grant, the director for the senator for center for euro forum. what do you think is happening with the two trying to ease tensions after that high-profile meeting with xi jinping and joe biden. this is eu's attempt to better relationships with china? >> the eu has several concerns

about of relationship with china the most important is trade. the combined trade between the two entities, although china came in 2022 to 850 billion euro of trade in exports and imports. of that, there was the european union ran a deficit of 400 billion euro. the eu is concerned that the lack of chinese openness and markets where it thinks china is playing unfairly and subsidizing too much to get its products into the market. one of the key european demands is opening chinese markets. that is what the europeans are asking for today. the other key and important thing europeans will say is helping russia. china gives a lot of help to russia not through weapons and such, but providing dual-use equipment used in weapons.

the europeans are unhappy about that. they are asking to rein back those exports. the chinese have their own demands, of course. >> from the chinese perspective, do what degree do italy and other sources confirmed to cnbc about the decision to pull out of the belt and road initiative? what will that do to overshadow the talks? >> i don't think it will o overshadow the talks. they have been saying for months they will do this. it is not really news italy is pulling out of the belt and road initiative. the chinese tend to view the europe relationship in the same respect of the chinese and united states. it is trying to batter and bully it around. they see this as a potential partner in the multi-polar world. the chinese are keen to pull the

europeans away from the u.s. it is trying to convince them to do things the united states doesn't want to do. europeans say if we move closer to america and they have moved closer to america on china in the last few years is because we are worried about chinese behavior. it steals intellectual property. chinese say american bullying is pulling you toward americans. >> charles put that bluntly, but clear how you see it. let me ask about the chinese dem demands. you talked about the european side and what they hope to get out of the conversations. what about china? >> china doesn't like the measures the eu has taken against it. the european commission is investigating chinese subsidies to exporters of electric vehicles to the eu because the

europeans are worried about its market flooded by chinese electric vehicles. back to the americans, the americans are asking the europeans to introduce x controls on the sensitive technology to china with the outbound investment screening so companies would not be able to invest in china if it involved in the sensitive matter to china. chinese don't like when europeans are giving to american pressure to cut off high-tech exports from europe to china. those are the chinese demands of the summitt. the chinese would like to revive investment. the investment treaty with europe and china a few years back. it was never ratified in european parliament. the europeans never ratified it.

the chinese would like to revive that. >> on the investigation into the chinese subsidies for electric vehicles, is there a chance we see europe yield on the ev issue? >> i don't think so. i think the european commission has decided partly because of french pressure to basically say there are unfair subsidies to chinese to the european union of evs. this doesn't mean the chinese will be blocked from entering the european market. it means there is an extra tariff or penalty of 10% or slightly higher put on exports of chinese evs to the eu. having said that, the chinese exports of evs will still be competitive. the market share will continue to grow. there is not much doubt about that. i'm not sure putting on some duties or tariffs because of the investigation will change the

real world very much. it is symbolic. it keeps the french happy to investigate the exports of vehicles. >> charles, let me wrap up. clearly this is so central to the eu and china relationship. we have the 2024 presidential election coming up in the u.s. what is next for the relationship? is that going to impact rhetoric with the two countries? >> i was in the u.s. last week and talking to the biden administration about whchina. both sides agreed to talk to each other more often and have a hotline. the chinese would try to stop fentanyl to keep biden happy. underlining that, the long-term

structure problems are serious. they arre rivals in asia. americans are unhappy with the chinese threats to taiwan. chinese are happy with the american promises to defend taiwan. the americans are unhappy with chinese support for russia in the war against ukraine. the long-term structure tremain. the two sides are talking to each other. we can all be thankful about that. >> this is a good place to leave it. charles grant, director for the center for european reform. coming up on the show, it is 5:00 somewhere. we'll take a closer look at i infi investment in wine and if you can generate juicy returns. we'll be right back. i'm andrea, founder of a

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signs." today, we are taking a closer look at innvestment in fine win which is an alternative asset. we have karen gilcrest here with more. this is interesting. my feeling is it tends to be cyclical when markets are doing well to invest in wine when markets are dipping and it doesn't perform well. >> that is something i unc uncovered. thank you for vhaving me this morning. it is not a short-term play. it is a medium-to-five-year plus play. over ten years, it risen dramatically. it is proving lucrative store for your money with the volatility in the market. it is maturing as an asset class. i've been diving in too.

i have a flavor for it. >> reporter: few things in life cannot be enhanced by fine wine. the portfolio may be one of them. with correlation with the stock market, a good collection of the alcohol can be a good investment to the portfolio. knowing where to start with take a seasoned palate. >> there needs to be brand recognition. perhaps, crucially, it needs resale value. >> reporter: fine wine ranks as one of the best asset classes in the luxury investment index which compares the annual returns of art and cars and handbags. over the past tempern years, fi wine has risen 149%. the highest return of any investment after whiskey. the most celebrated bottles s gw

further. wines from the italy region increased 214% over the same period. as with the aging process itself, investing in fine wine takes time and a strong stomach. prices fell 11.3% year on year in october. restretreating from a high rall. >> it is not a short-term play. it never has been. wine is five years. it is a medium outlook and beyond. >> reporter: investors looking to enter the market can think of the investment like a piece of art with rarity all factors to consider. for that, research is key, but so, too, is passion. >> if you don't enjoy drinking great wines, it becomes a rather

boringi investment class. that is appealing. it is an intellectual as well as interesting experience. >> reporter: that passion was the main motivation for the taiwan curcurator who had a collection on sale hosted by sotheby's. >> what is clear he is was exploring vineyards in the early days before people were spending time there. he is also taken expert advice. >> reporter: the sale comes as the consumer base sparked a boom in the wine market. fine wine auctions have tripled in the past decade rising from

58 m$58 million in 2013 to $158 million in 2022. the number of bidders increased by 400%. the number of new bidders increased over 5%. >> there is a huge amount of new interest. we are seeing a really exciting demographic in their 30s and 40s. more than two-thirds coming from asia. >> reporter: as for the experts top picks? >> you can do worse. i guess if everything goes wrong, you have delicious wine to drink. >> a few hot tips on the best wines you can think about this asset class. certainly the demand is there as some of these people were saying as the first lot for auction went for $16 million. certainly the money is there and it could be $50 million over the course of the year. there is the interest. >> how does storage work for the

wine? this is a unique asset class. you don't talk about storage with handbags or watches. what about wine? >> that is unique about the market. companies will storebottles for you because they have the right conditions. that is so important. it also means it is held in bond. those bottles are exempt from b.a.t. it is important to think about that investment in wine. they want to raeap the benefits with the exemptions. there is capital gains tax in the uk and other markets which make it lucrative. >> i was looking at the piece you written on cnbc.com. i saw wine has done well over the last few years, but not as well as whiskey. whiskey has outperformed. let me come back to what you

were saying to julianna in the cost of storage. what are other considerations investors need to think about with wine? >> i was told expect 10% in and out with purchasing wine. you have to think about which bottles are you going to store in bond and keeping an investment and if this is a passion, are you willing to set aside and enjoy? that is a huge part of it. you have to see which fits. >> it is tricky. you are passionate and about and you want to make money. >> i was reassured by the experts that the demand doesn't need to be there for the drinkers. that leads to the price rise. i think we can all be happy it is acceptable to drink. >> who will hold the fine? >> it is 5:00 somewhere. for more on investing in wine,

check out karen's article on cnbc.com. let's go back to the markets. >> the dollar/yen. the yen has been rallying strongly against the dollar overnight. on pace for the biggest one-day drop since january. we're hovering around the 145 level. this is on the back of the signals that policy normalization could come from the bank of japan. european markets are trading lower this morning. red across the board. a more mixed picture for u.s. markets as investors await weekly initial jobless claims data. that is the focal point for u.s. markets in the wall street session. that is it for the show. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running. i was printing out labels and saving money. shipstation saves us so much time. it makes it really easy and seamless.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your "five@5." fizzling out. stocks on track for a fourth straight day of losses as the 2023 stock rally appears to be run oning out of steam. not so for bitcoin. hitting the highest level since april of 2022. that's not stopping jamie dimon from calling out the sector and players. if stocks are having a rough week