welcome to closing bell, i'm scott walker, live from cb headquarters this breakout hour begins with the next move. for the fed, the market, and most importantly, for your money. that, after today's jobs repor and the recent rally in stocks and bonds. last car experts over the fina stretch what's in store, in th meantime, your score with 60 minutes to go, and regulatio looks like that. we have green across the board kind of been all over the map, that is the current look yields are dropping today afte the unemployment rate fell after the jobs report came out there is your pitch, green there, too 224. the yield on the ten, pretty good day for mega kept two apple is higher holding abov three trillion in market cap yet again. we will speak to top analyst here on morgan stanley in just a few moments for why hi expectations are for those

stocks 2024, alphabet is getting some back today as questions mount about the company's just rolled out a model, all if it takes us to our top of the table, what lie ahead for stocks and next week sped meeting, which is leading large. let's ask cameron dawson she's in chief invested office for new age wealth, here wit me on set. good to see you out here >> good to see you >> anything change for you, by virtue of what was delivered today in the jobs report >> i think that nothing really changed. however, what we're not gettin is confirmation that data is falling off a cliff. it just means if we think abou the hundred 20 basis points of cuts that's being priced int markets, maybe that's a little bit ahead of itself. but when we think about th funds going into next week this data doesn't really chang whether or not the hike. we don't think they will hike, but it means that they probabl won't endorse the fed cut path of the bottom -- >> i mean, - it's probably a little aggressive, do you think that was three meetings from now. but even if that is aggressive the implication is that the fe

is going to cut in 2024, tha the hikes are done, and th report today, just underscores for many that they soft landin is in play >> yeah. we're living in the supe goldilocks world, where we'r continuously threateningly thi needle where we could have i all. where we could see tha deceleration in which growth they were a little bit hotte today. the deceleration of wage growt and inflation data and yet, it is not coming with the pain. i think the question for markets next year is we ar starting to see little signs o weakness a little bit of deterioratio around the corner, so the jo market, not enough to say we'r falling off a cliff. but thus this little piece o easing turned into outrigh deterioration, where we woul be more concerned? >> are you growing mor positive on the outlook for th markets and you've been for the, let's say, the balance of 2023 >> we think there's stil opportunity for earnings t surprise to the upside that is when something w haven't seen earnings revision move much higher yet you could still see better revenue growth and margins that's been really, you want t

-- on margins i think the thing of the challenge as we look at market is that they are expensive they are trading at 19 times forward. mark it's re-rated aggressivel this year. the s&p 500 p e is up 20%. so, if there's upside of the market, it really is in thos areas where peas are lower as well as in those areas wher you see the potential for more earnings subside >> i had tom, liaison stratton with me on closing bell. speaking of earnings, he sai you can get, i know, i was going to tell you to sit down, but you're already sitting down two 70, even two 80, $280, o the most aggressive side o what he believes this target for the s and p is 5200 that is the highest on the street and here's why he is s bullish. i want you to listen to what h said, and we can react on th other side timely >> i think more groups tha could actually have better earnings power into next year, and essentially, if cautio comes off companies, you know, cap x, there's a lot of -- cap, x 500 group sort of cut

cap x as a procession of revenues last year so, you have a cap x opportunity. you have a home recovery opportunity, and, you have interest rates falling it's hard to say stocks should fall next year what do you think? if he too optimistic >> i think if we're lookin into 2025, which is what tha to 70 number is, that' actually where consensus is as well so, what we can see is that' not pricing in any kind of recession. we're not in the camp yet wher we think we're going to have a imminent recession in the firs half of 2024 but that's a long way away i 2025 so, that's terrific will continuously have to look. once you get to 19, 20 times that 25 number, that's whe you're starting to be very aggressive on your estimates for the valuation at the sam time that earnings would not b pricing in any potential downside >> it's argument, to, is the feds are going to have to cut, and they're going to have to cut because inflations com down enough not because th economy is falling off a cliff obviously, if i said he thinks he could get to $280 on hi high upside prediction for

earnings, the economy is going to do quite well and thus, the market is going to do a lo better than people are eve thinking it might. >> i think it's how much do we cut, because not all cuts ar created equal. in the threshold by history is about 75 basis points. but that has cut rate 75 basis point without a recession. the markets really, the hit ne all-time highs once you get to that 75 basi points, everything is great. the difference scenarios tha if you got more than 75 basi points, that's when the fed is seeing something an issue with the economy. they are cutting for a reall bad reason, and that has bee markets are starting to trad less robustly, because you are cutting earnings estimates a well >> what seems reasonable to you, if he's got 5200 and i don't know if you want to throw out number or not, if you don't, that's perfectly fine. but in terms of returns, for next year, what seem reasonable to you? >> high single digits return would be reasonable, because i you assume that we don't have recession, that's about wher you get on earnings growth nex year which just means i don't hav

to make any bold assumptions about multiple expansion i can get the upside just from the earnings alone >> high single digits. so, you're not willing to go double digits. with high single digits, though, sounds, people would take. that >> people would take that and that's about my wrong ru average. >> interesting, terms of areas you think would leave, now, as bullish as tom is, tom als says well, mega caps, they'l outperform, but they're no going to do what they did this year it's going to be these other sectors. listen to this he says financials can be up 30%, industrials could be up 25%, small caps can be up 50%. >> that is a high kind o market, but we're seeing those opportunities. we're going to the areas tha are left behind, and we ar seeing things in health care and financials where the bar i extraordinarily low. just as the bar was very low for a lot of these tec companies at the beginning o the year, because people weren't invested in tech a much they were worried abou

interest rates going up. so now, we're starting to se very selectively things within financials, things withi health care, things within small cap even, where there is big upset because the bar is s very low >> let's bring in cnbc contributors, tune in to cushion now if you be privat wealth into the conversation so, shannon, what do you think you heard cameron suggest yo can get high single digits then, tom lee is like oh you're gonna do a lot more tha that you get all the way to 5200 on the s&p. >> well, 5200 is clearly the approach that you get probably more rate cuts than cameron is certainly talking about, probably in the neighborhood o at least 100 basis points of rate cuts. but you also get strong to line growth, scott i think the challenge here i that everyone is talking about 2024 earnings estimates being, perhaps, too optimistic. but i think if you look at those optimistic earnings, they're being driven by th fact that you look at revenu growth expectations.

if you look at the next thre quarters, for instance, we'r going about 3% to four and a half percent, plus and the environments where inflation i well below that. so i think the delivery of top line growth next year in the absence or moderation of inflation, i think, is reall where you could potentially ge that inflection point in terms of delivery of that type o metric on the s&p 500. there's still gonna be som challenges to that i think if you look at the economic data that's underlying, notwithstanding what we saw in today's report, we are seeing slowdown, and, scott, don' forget, if you talk about th opportunities in the secto like industrials, you ar really looking for tha manufactured, you are really looking for that manufacture renaissance and i don't know i you look at pmi slightly, bu we're really not seeing it yet >> you are not willing to be more optimistic for next yea than you are this? i think, you know bears or

those who have been cautious have been so this year, it turns out, to their ow detriment. right? because the market has obviously had a pretty goo year, and more of late, it's balanced out more than it was, so, it's kind of hard at thi point to nitpick and say well, i was right to be cautious because from november 1st to today, you are it and i don't mean yo specific i mean the bearish view. >> well, if you think about ho we came into this period ove the second half of the year, scotty actually penetran equities and the caveat there is that the pullback that you discussed, august, september, october timeframe, was really based on rates volatility so, if you believe that the fe is kind of out of the equation and you and i have talked abou this, and i think we are standing firm on the fed being you know, less of a player a we go into the next couple o months, then, you're thinkin about what's happening in th bond market, and that bond market volatility is reall where you're going to see th foundation, because if you think about multiple expansion

and the need for that, yes we've talked a lot about tha top ten stocks of the s&p 50 and multiple expansion tha they experienced, there ar other parts of the market that have had multiple expansion as well so, to cameron's point, lookin at some of the sectors that ar under loved and, perhaps, have been sold off because of the rate environment, that's reall where we're seeing it. those happen to be also rather defensive parts of the market. >> well, i mean, small caps or not. industrial to. not financial to not the implication that tom makes is that the economy is going to do much better than people think, the fed is going to cut because inflation i going to cooperate enough, and you're going to get a massiv catch up trade in those areas. >> well, financials, let's put it this way. there's some parts of th financial sector you know, areas like unsure instead of actually experience multiple expansion this year, scott so, if you want to talk abou fine, you get a rotation t smaller regional banks, that's

a play that actually could boost that small kept trade as well, right? they make up a big part of tha universe i think the other thing to think about is, if you look at that inflection point that tom is referencing, those thre sectors you just talked about, particularly industrials and small caps, you are looking at the early cycle. and i think that second half o the year, if you do believ that we are past the pain from an economic perspective and th fed is allowed to cut at least a couple of times becaus inflation has come dow significantly, he's not wron to be positions there. i just took the first half o the year is much more uncertai than i think this particular jobs report, or any single piece of data is reflecting. >> maybe - no more difficult than jus thinking the fed goes from being your foe to your friends they don't necessarily have to cut you know, 1 million time to be super friendly, they jus have to stop hiking. acknowledge that, at some point,

which i feel like they are almost on the verge of doing we will get a plot, you know next week to get a better idea but we know what happens whe you either don't fight the fed that cuts both ways. we learned our lesson of wha happens when they race aggressively now, we are going to maybe learn it next year, when the stop >> isn't it interesting that even though the fed turns ou to be far more hawkish in rais rates farmer than expected through the course of 2023 that we've also had this big multiple expansion that was something we didn't expect going into the beginnin of the year. our thesis was hey, the fed is going to be tighter. economy is going to hold a better, and that would mean yo are not going to be able t expand multiples that's not a high played out so maybe the fed was just much less relevant in 23 than w thought. when we look at 24, though, on of the things that is still on the back of my mind is when talk to companies, they're saying they're losing pricin power. they're not able to rais prices as much what does that mean for the to

line what does that mean for revenu growth because the street is expectin it to accelerate >> wasn't the bulk of th multiple expansion, though, in the mecca cap stocks, a much smaller number but equal weight s and p multiple is still 15 to 16 times, is it not so, the biggest swath of the markets didn't experience th kind of multiple expansion tha a small group did to sort of skew the pi. >> exactly and the number is that multiples for the s&p went u 20%. multiples for the equal weight index only went up 8% this year so, in theory, there's a lot o room for multiples to move higher to get back up to the 1 to 18 times on the equal weigh index, which was their prior peak what does that mean for in depth level return though? when you already re-write text talks, and tax stocks defy hig estimates for earnings, an positioning is already there if tech isn't a leader that it was this year, what does tha mean for index level returns which is why we would skew t the lower end of the range o

return pauses. >> i will bring it back to tom lee, who says you know, look if the s&p, shan, can do 12 to 15% next year, that seems reasonable number in his mind. even though he doesn't believe for a cap is going to lead the way, as it did this year, it i still going to outperform. it's just going to be fourth o his list so, for those who are now in mega cap, let's say they'v chased they didn't want to miss out o the full thing for the year. what do they do with those stocks into a new one? >> well, so, there's two thing at play here, scott. i think the implication fo those who think we are going t see you know, potentially some pressure on the s&p 500, whe you think about the rotation is people actually rotatin from technology into other sectors. i think, now the other alternative, you know, expectation, if you will, is you actually see some movement from cash, which now is goin to have some reinvestment risk in the second half of next year into equities, and i think tha

is unlikely at least, in m view, that you see a lot o people piling into technolog given the returns this year. so, i think that's why if yo look across the other sectors, you could potentially see that a slight rotation from technology, but also, the flow going into that. and that could power, in part, some of the interest in smal cap as well, because i would say most investors are under invested in that, just given the emphasis on growth and technology over the last year. >> cameron, what about bonds coming off the best month sinc the 80s, stocks ripped i november's, prices ripped, now what, now what >> we saw yields get oversold, bonds get over bought in the short term, it means we coul have somewhat of a bounce in yields, mostly if you get little more of a hawk's messag from the fed next week, at the end of the day the bar is much lower then be construed as

hawkish for them to be construed as - because you've seen re-pricing as we get into 2024, we have this chopping yield, we don' have have that movement like you had in 2023, but a movemen lower and yields would b dependent on there being a recession, meeting go back som 4% in the three handle range requires weaker data >> you talk stocks, trash, bonds, what do we expect >> yeah, i think i reference cash at having reinvestmen risk i think there's a lot of peopl that are clustered in th showed end of the curve, scott doesn't mean you need to go ou very far in adding to your duration there will be a rotation in th intermediate part of the curve if you think about peopl looking to potentially lock in yields, even anticipating tw or three rate cuts in th second half of next year, yo

want to make a move potentiall to lock in some of that income if we're only talking abou high single digits in equity return wouldn't it be nice to lock in something you can get on the corporate side and intermediat that's - what i do think there won't be rush of you well after a significant economic contraction in the change we see. there could be a natural progression where we see investors adding to thei duration as a result of this concern at that front and curv that will move lower >> last word on that >> that's the prudent thing to do as you start to see bond mature in the long and, it doesn't mean we don't ignore the risk of duration and meaning we know we hav treasury funding announcements at the beginning of the year all these things that scoop th bottom market. but -- for many investors is th prudent thing to do. >> we'll leave it there, cameron, thanks for coming out here enjoy the weekend, we'll see

you soon let's get a check out to stocks to watch as we head int the clothes on this friday christina is here with us. >> let's talk about lululemon. all-time high after earnings and revenues, that's ove lighter than expected guidance for the holiday quarter. shares were down yesterday executives touted strains on black friday but noted there are some uncertainties in th environment. shares are up almost 6%. levi strauss's laura after announcing comp -- >> reporter: michelle gas will step into the chief executiv role in january. gas will repay the gene giants chip burke, in a plan that was first announced last year. the shares are down shy of 2%. >> christina, we'll see you in a bit. we're getting started here up next, reigniting the bull case, apple seeing big gains this year. morgan stanley is making the case for even more upside. he'll tell you why and how far he thinks the stock and rally. we're live today for cnbc'

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shares were apple are up mor than 15% my next guest says the bul case has been reignited as well eric glittering of morga stanley raised his targets thi morning. he joins me now to explain exactly why he did that good to see you, welcom back >> thank you, good to be back >> your price target is 2:20 it dawned on me that the las

time you were on october 30th, apple shares were one 68, we had a frank conversation to th point where you were hones with investors at that point you said on bullish. things are great, i wouldn't necessarily step in front of the stock right here, mayb it's gonna pull back more, maybe goes down to one 60. >> well, here we are >> one 90. five thank you very little what do i do now >> the market is very humbling this discount mechanism. we need to keep that in mind if you remember, when i wa there with you, i said the were two near term risks that was concerned with one, the risk of a negativ iphone production cost and one was the risk of th google trial coming to a conclusion, and some form of adverse reaction in my view, both of the risk are now largely off the table. -- earlier this week. it gave confirmation that ther

is stability in the supply chain and what we learne earlier this week, the time in conclusion for the google do cases multiple years away from now. again, discounting that risk multiple years out my point this morning wa really saying over the last, since october 27th apple has been up -- apples been up 15 points i believe that on the next 1 months, the probability of apple outperforming by a greater magnitude is higher. i'm not taking a directional call on the markets, all leave that to mike wilson and morgan stanley, with the bare cas eliminated from the near term, there are things we can look t that are very positive the directionality of th service business, it's accelerating two teams, a ke crux to the assist, gros margins for the consecutiv quarter are reaching mid 40%

as i rode alongside my colleagues two weeks ago, a lo of the discussion about a.i. has been on cloud giants it hasn't been on apple. i think apple is time to shine when it comes to a.i., it give investors excite something t get excited about. and the stock is $195, on my fiscal 25 earnings that's abou 26 times the earnings. the stocks traded between 18 times, 32 times over the las year the valuation isn't cheap bu it's not overly taxing if you make evaluation on apple, historically you've been prove wrong. i think with the bull case with bare drivers somewhat diminished in the near term, there's things to look forward to in 2024 they get me excited >> it's funny, if you writ about apple's trajectory i 2024, michael wilson is gonn be wrong on where the market i going. that's neither here nor there, i don't want to put you in a rough spot you must assume than tha

smartphone demand has trough >> that's a good point in my world, the word world of hide where that's a cyclical world you typically want to bu a hardware stop at two different points one, when you believe that the absolute demand generation has bottomed and or when you believe you ar in for a sustained period of acceleration in your year fo year growth going forward. we believe that the pc markets have bottomed. we believe the smart for market has bottomed. demand is an even in the nea term, don't get me wrong, as i look at my apple model over th next four quarters, i forecast growth acceleratin incrementally each quarter that gives you something to ge excited about, there is stil very much an uneven demand market but again, those times you wan to buy hardware stocks i think for at least apple the time is now. >> i'm looking at a story that

hit a few minutes before w came on the air. i hope you had a chance to check it on. >> i knew you were gonna ask me >> here's the headline, appl iphone and head -- that's gonna happen accordin to this particular report in february what is this mean to you >> it's hard for me to say we know apple has a deep bench of executives. we've seen that over time. i'm not personally sure ho deeply involved this individua or group of individuals ha been in the design, growth o this business. i can imagine if they ar involved again, quite involved. but in saying does it mean tha all the sudden the iphone is gonna be a product that we lov and adore and don't give up, continue to buy a new one, that's not the case. we can always look to a deep bench, it's hard for me to speculate at this point th importance of that news. again, according to bloomberg. >> sure. you referenced earlier one o

the roadblocks if you well t being more bullish, th timeline of the doj google trial being pushed out can you remind our viewers why there is relevance that fo this >> sure. the trial is between the u.s government and alphabet, google but at the end of the day, google out of it are very clos partners, apple generates we believe somewhere between high teens and low twenties billion of annual revenue from google, for making google the defaul search engine on safari. it's a lucrative contract, hig margin contract. in the event that this judge judge mehta believes that th way that google has approached the search market devolves int something related to antitrust measures there is ways that tha relationship between apple and google might change. in a way apple is not involved in the case, they might even

stand to lose more theoretically in the event o an adverse ruling. that's why it's so important t apple we believe ultimately an adverse ruling could b somewhere between a four to 7% eps hit. the reason i think that this risk has been pushed further out is we've learned in th last week, earlier this week actually, the expectation fo the timing of the conclusion o this case is the end of 2024 there's roughly 6 to 12 months appeals process. you can then go through anothe trial to determine what theoretical of potential remed could be followed by another set of appeals as we know in the united state legal systems you should alway bet over, that was something it's a learning statement i ca make from this it takes a lot of time for these types of big high profil cases to work its way throug the legal system that's the point i'm making.

still, a theoretical risk, absolutely, but the push out o it means the market is going t discount that risk factor in the near term. >> it's really amazing that th stock, if i would've told you, revenue growth is going to decline for a few quarters in row. smartphone demand is gonna b weak, china's recovery is gonn be weak, but hey, this is no -- in markup. you would've said, you're ou of your mind can be a comment on my las point, china, what do you se there? >> reporter: china is a market that isn't even right now. we know the economic challenge that the country faces we also know that it's a ver competitive market and our view, it's one of th largest smartphone markets tha has an elevated turn and switching back and forth fro brands we believe the apple ecosystem is strong. we see that in our smartphon surveys that we do every yea in china more services, adoption, buyin

new products that are in the iphones, wearables are one that have been popular it's a challenging market, again, it's a very important market it's apple's second biggest market after the unite states when i think about china i this zero and what it means fo fiscal 24, i have iphone units in china right now down 24 year over year in 24 no coincidence of course to me that is derisking th ultimate outlook so said differently if we thin things are gonna be worse than 24%, it's a very severe view some reports indicated that fo example on the 11:11 singles holiday in china, that iphon volumes were down 4% again, 4% is much better tha down 24% what i try to do is really b quite aggressive in my cut there and say, let's assume th worst, hope for the best and what it seems like is or somewhere in between it's very uneven demand market an

we go through competition. >> gotcha. 24 and 24, i have to go up fro your notes i appreciated as always. eric, thanks take care. eric joining us for morgan stanley. up next five star stop advice kevin simpson is back. he reveals his newest chec position and the stop he's debating getting back into th'sat after the break closing bell right back. municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential

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on pace for the sixth straight week my next guest looking outsid of the minutesevent -- he started a new position in one of the last talk about tec names. let's bring in kevin simpson o capital wealth planning. great to have you. back i see your stock, a coupl days ago you have -- you asked me to think of a nam of a company, he kass is wha it is. it turns out to be ibm, yo text me and you're like, thi guy is unbelievable how did he know that.

i see you bought ibm i'm like, what, why did you bu it because he picked it? >> yeah, i feel when you playe halloween and ibm, the news wa on the show, why not the truth is, scott, we haven' owned ibm in years, it's hilarious when they said tha because we were initiating the position the thesis really is, can we get outside the magnificen seven, can we find companies that provide a little bit more value granted way more old school can we get some kind of slee or exposure into a.i.. and watson was early to th party and i don't think it eve became what they had hoped i would, reinvigorating watson acts which will allow for lots of companies to get exposure t a i, the rat had deal everyone thought was a misfit, an something that the overpaid fo is now starting to becom synergistic in the company if you look at a stock that' playing at plus 4% dividen while we wait to see how thi matures, i think there is an

opportunity set here and values, scott. it's not just the red hat whic is projected to do double digi returns next year. even old-school traditional ib is looking at single digit growth even though that's not explosive, growth is still growth, we're looking at thi as something that's not looked at by everyone over the past three or four years. the stock hasn't done anything it started to break out little bit, we feel there' some trajectory to be upcycled for sure >> who knows, i'm buying i we'll see what happens i get you there is more of the story. i figured there probably was you add your position in cme group, why >> this is one you and i hav been talking about for the pas few months, it's a tremendou company that has - nine quarters have bee increasing at 9% clip. the growth has been at 10% they have masses dividen growth and their commitment to shareholders is incredible the other thing that i potentially exciting about the end of december is occasionall they'll pay a special dividend

last year they paid $4.50 at the end of the year. there's no guarantee they do i but they've been profitabl versus last year if anything, history repeats itself, it would create dividend yield that's an exces of 4% queue middle of really this is certainly one that i benefiting for more action activity, trading, trading and indexing, and interest rates bonds and equities we might see an a group for th growth story there >> let me know for my viewer and you for that matter, wha are the highs of the day it's been an interesting session. the dow came out, the market wasn't sure if it had change the narrative, what had defens done can they start cutting me -- the s&p is up 18, nasdaq starting to look good as w head into this very final part of the trading day, up 7 points i bring it up because i thin the prevailing thought is that what happened today means that

that soft landing is still attacked you have caterpillar which you added to which would play righ into that narrative, noah? >> yeah, we're not expecting a hard landing, we're no expecting a massive recession, but history may teach us there's a rolling recession. i don't think we need some kin of massive fall off a cliff. if the infrastructure bill i rio there's no bette beneficiary. it's fun you and i were talkin about it last time when they reported earnings, let's hol off until after the report, it will probably go down. same thing happened with dear, we got into a situation wher the share prices leveled off and they have value. the opportunities set again fo high quality companies, 12 forward p e, plus 2% dividen yield, increase the dividend b eight or 9% every year, recession what are the story were not planning for recession, or betting on the infrastructure, betting on caterpillar. >> you have a reaction to broa

calm and the earnings, you'v been building a position i that name? >> i think the earnings ar excellent. it's excellent how strong th potential is for this company. right after they reported, scott, they could've postmarke it $22 and i was like, why what's going on. it's a good lesson not to trad after hours but the 14 dividend hike, if there wa this on revenue the report wasn't perfect, the sale number was excellent i thought the projections were better than people wer expecting for next year but th acquisition, bringing them int the story, it's gonna make the 50% semiconductor, 50% software and it takes away some of th cyclicality of the stock and now that it's in the rearview mirror, there's 7.1 billion dollars allocated fo sure buyback i think the stock is cheap, think they do as well. you can get this thing i around 900 box and you'r really happy two years fro now. >> i appreciate it, kevin, kevin simpson, capital o planning joining us. let me note as well, we hi

a 52 week high of the s&p 50 as we speak. it's the highest level back to march of 2022. it may have taken a little while today for the bulls to get excited about what was delivered this morning from th labor department nonetheless, we have 20 minute left and we've a bit of a ramp up to the close on this friday up next we track the biggest movers as we head into that close kristina has that for. us >> reporter: crypto - security deal between an air conditioning company and honey well, i'll explain, next

we're 15 away from the close. let's get back to christina fo a look at the stocks she's watching >> reporter: steve kovach trie to jump to the shot bowl extension -- $44,000. that's around 100 percent 60 yesterday. coinbase is up about 7% afte falling for two straight days. profit including 22 millio dollar investment from kathy woods. coinbase is up though 329% - shares of air conditione company, carrier global, are higher after selling a securit limit the industrial fir

honeywell for 4.9% billion i cash honeywell seems to bulk it safety business where growth has slowed honeywell down one and a hal percent. -- >> christina thanks, see you o the other sand still ahead, retail investor jumping back into the market a levels not seen in more than a year we'll tell you what name they're buying, we'll do i ahead closing bell be right back.

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take a look at that chart. that's our age, sinking in the session, we'll tell you what's behind the move and why ca impact both the retail and the housing trade in a big way when we come back inside the market zone.

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more now the closing bel market zone, the nbc senio market commentator, mike santoli, here to break down th crucial moments of the day plus, our h is closely mission how can impact the retail an housing trade. k rooney with a look a what retail flows this wee might be signaling mike santoli, you first, new 52 week high snp, we hav our ramp as we get to this final stretch? >> everybody seem to be able t see clear toward this bat to a soft landing, we got reinforcement for. a little more affirmatio doesn't hurt the market response today to somewhat moderating labo market, strains but also wit this disinflationary forces in

everyone's mind it is enough t keep the seasonal trends intact we've been going sideways fo three weeks, it's not that aggressive as buying stamped in the market really is grind. but yeah, good enough for ne highs, the next thing to loo for is anything that disturb this assumption that we have that goldilocks type numbers out there. inflation next week and all th rest of it but for now, it seems as if we broadened enough that it's not just a handful of stocks wer talking about. you look at the banks, the way they respond, and now a mult month highs as well. it makes people feel bette about the underpinnings of thi rally. >> - to your point, russell i outperforming right now? >> people were gun-shy about this uptick higher in treasury yields, is not gonna b something that will puncture the good mood and test the rally so far it didn't seem to take hold, yields managed a level befor but -- tenure i think all that together show

you that no one really decided they had to make changes today except to maybe do a little bi of buying around the edges >> let's talk about restoratio hardware to, plumbing toda after a quarterly loss, th furniture retailer pointing th finger at a frozen housing market forecasting that promotion will pressure the bottom line. what do we make of this, mike? >> in some respects we have frozen market and it's about new home builds and renovations, home furnishings in general, not necessarily all that activ in terms of demand on the other hand, it seem innocent in terms of our age they've had a number o quarters where the disappointed, people are revising lower, what the expect to earn, there's revamp of product lines goin out. the point being, it doesn' seem to be purely macro, whe you look at shares of willia sonoma, ethan all, another hom related staff, it's able t perform and here, sherbrooke

williams also came towards a 5 week high. it shows you there's more of a specific and a pandemic boom and bust story in our age. right now, earnings for next year for the company are not even supposed to be half o what they were earning in prio to fiscal year before we reall exited the pandemic time >> mike, get back to you in th moment k rooney, -- >> a little more confident o the risk side, scott, we'v seen the strongest retai influence since march of las year according to data from jp morgan, individual consumers invested 6.8 billion -- those self directed trades and there's evidence that thei risk is one sign of that that money i talked about is flowing out of the market thos funds have seen record - that for the first time sinc may, it flows to money marketing etfs went into negative territory that's according to vandaliz

search, it seen traders withou the defense of big tech names, riskier small software names i russell 2000 buying crypto proxy stocks that have bee volatile lately. jp morgan points an uptick i game stock the original stock is th poster child for risk-taking and a lot more buying into a well which tends to be a bellwether of retail behavior. it's widely held about 12% average in most portfolios scott. >> thanks, kate rooney, mike you want to comment on these flows? >> on the one hand, it's to be expected when the markets been ramping for six weeks. you're near the highs of the year, you're starting to get more comfortable about the bac row, the eye theme is runnin through a lot of this. there's a point at mitch where it gets overdone i don't think you need to go through the stages of having broader participation. you need bulls to make a bul market it's understandable you're getting retail response bu

it's not unequivocal, th ameritrade investment or index showed that their clients were net sellers of november, eve as the market went straight up it's one of those things tha you monitor, it's good until it's not so good as a contrary signal right now we're still in a zon where it's better to hav participation. and some of the single sto teams are working as opposed t really everybody fixated on th macro trade, and trying to trade the fed. by the way, the treasury yield story as well. >> to reiterate, the s&p 500 during this hour the final stretch hitting a new 52 wee high as mike has suggested it's bee broad based, don't just look t technology, financials one o the outperforming sectors toda as well. michael, have a good one take us into the close on this friday >> you've got, it's got. i'll see you monday, and we're still about 4600 on the s&p 500, not just a 52 week high that would be the highs close on th first time about 4600.

-- 2022 and that was at the peak of failed beer market rally after the first crack in early 2022. we have a decent breath as scott was saying about two thirds of all volume in the ne york stock exchange is due the upside the leaders, the biggest upsid contributors for the day as yo might expect our, things lik nvidia, microsoft, apple, meta clearly the big winner i continuing to win, you see tha straight 45 degree angle u afternoon as well. the market took relatively fir jobs report today, as an excus to do some selling in bonds bu the yield may have bounced otherwise as well on technique -- with a ten-year yield up 43. still under four and a quarter 4:35 high-level people are looking for to say, maybe that makes folks uncomfortable. and boy, it's been a cal market for three weeks, goin sideways until today's littl ramp above 4600. if we can hold it there were

also up for the week around tw tenths of a percent in the s&p 500. and the volatility index reall just cracking. [bell ringing] it's showing that traitors a we go into a week next week ar not expecting too many fireworks. we'll see if they're right about that that's gonna do it for the closing bell have a great weekend and now it's over time with -- mike santoli take a breath the good news is good news s&p 500 having a 52 week hig after a late push before the weekend. that's your score record o wall street. welcome to closing bel overtime, i'm john ford, morga brennan is off today the financial sector has underperformed the market this year k b w says it might be the right time to buy some names o the cheap. we'll get your 2024 bank playbook with k b w's had banking. plus equity mogul robert smith joins us to talk aut