♪♪ good morning. lcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche a these are your headlines. the santa rally as european equities are on the downside as the new york fed john williams said the markets may have gone ahead of themselves by typing in rate cuts. >> we are focused on the question in front of us which is what chair powell said. do we have monetary policy to

restrictive stance in der to ensures the inflation comes backs down to 2%? from christmas giving onhe enemy front with silverlake pushing on the listing and loing to vodafone to consolidate business. and mersk suspend routes following a series of cargo liners by e houthi group. and calling for a cease-fire in gaza as pressure builds with the deaths of three hostages over the weekend. good morning. welcome to "street signs." it is the penultimate trading week of the year before we wrap up for the year. it is not, yet, too soon to call

it on data. we have just got some numbers coming in from germany. let me bring those to you. we are looking at the german ifo data. this is the reflection of business morale. that headline has fallen for december. climate index at 86.4. that is below the consensus forecast of 87.8. let me give you further detail on conditions which have come in lower than consensus at 88.5. the forecast of 89.7. the expectation index which is something to watch out for at 84.3. that is below consensus of 85.9. we have the german ifo numbers disappointing on expectation and on business climate and current conditions as well. all three numbers. you have to take them back-to-back with the pmi

numbers that came out last week suggesting that not only is manufacturing data stabilizing at a low level, but services numbers dropped as well. the back drop from the activity standpoint is not conducive for the positive growth. we were speaking to chris williamson and he says this suggests that the eurozone is on track for another quarter of contraction. recession territory at this point. this is the picture for the german ifo number today. business sentiment continuing to fall. let's get to annette. it is not painting a pretty picture for the german economy. annette, i keep tracking the dax. the stock market is behaving

separately to what we are hear on the ground. >> reporter: that s is come completely right. joumanna, it decoupled from the economy. it is all about the interest rate environment and the money which is reentering stocks and living bonds. it is fair to say there is a decoupling taking place. when you talk about the real economy, we have seen recent gdp flashes estimates for the third quarter being weak in contr contracti contra contr contractionary territory. it is likely a long-time data issue. the economy looks worse than it is widely perceived. on top of that, now comes the batch of constraints in the new

year in 2024 which is on top of general business environment. they are scrapping subsidies all over the place. surprise subsidies scrapping by the economy minister for electric cars. people who have already factored those in are now sitting on the full bill, so to take. they are in energy saving subsidies for housing. i guess we are heading into a dire winter. that's what the ifo institute is saying. they originally were quoted by saying is christmas this year is almost canceled for the year economy. we have both sides weak and the manufacturing and the backbone of the economy, but the consumer is also constrained by the long period of inflation which was in place.

of course, also, as i was saying, now with the budget being austere for the new year, there is not a lot of support from the federal government. i guess we're bracing for another quarter which might look like contraction again for germany. >> well, to quote you, christmas is canceled for the german economy. that is not a great picture for the german economy. of course, we have to place that against the stock markets where the santa rally continues. of course, the major catalyst last week was the fed pivot and more rate cuts set alight the stock markets. we saw bullish sentiment on friday with the market digested comments from new york fed president john williams. more on that in a minute.

we had a strong week for tocks. today, you see the stoxx 600 in europe is more muted. red on the board behind me. it is down about .10%. this after the fifth straight weekly gain on friday. this is the longest winning streak forhe stoxx 600 since april. don't forget that during the course of the week last week, we had new record highs for the dax and the cac 40. that was my question earlier. the german economy is poorly at the moment and the dax continues to reach a record high. that tells you the reflection of the index and it tends to be more outward focused on the domestic economy. let's switch at the boards today. this is how things are faring. these indices are trading in the red. peripheries down .20%. the dax is coming off as well. off the record highs down 30 points. .20% weaker today. we are seeing chemical names at

the top of the dax. autos trading to the bottom. cac 40 is down .40%. pulling back on the record highs. we have underperformance from luxury names. the ftse 100 is 7,600. 25 points higher. .30% firmer. we are seeing some positive stock price action in vodafone up 5% today. this is on the potential tieup of the italian business. up 5%. on the flip side, down for the stocks in the ftse 100. this is where leadership is coming from. oil and gas is seeing a boost. up .80%. this is in response to the political vemt developments wit

shipping routes through the red sea. we hear mersk which is looking to look away from the shipping area. that is where some commodities are trading. on the flip side, construction and material lagging down 1%. luxury down .90%. autos down as well. this is what the u.s. futures are looking like at the beginning of the session. three majors seen opening in positive territory. we had a lot of news flow last week with the fed and macro data. this is lighter. we will have the housing index later today. you see all of the indices are opening up in the green. we had a lot of positivity of the fed rate cuts next year, but some cold water was poured on some of that sentiment toward

the close yesterday when new york fed president john williams told our u.s. colleagues that the u.s. fed is not looking at loosening. >> we are focused on the question in front of us which is chair powell said which is have we gotten monetary policy to restrictive stance to ensure inflation comes back down to 2%. that's the have been thinking about for the last five months months. >> if you want to get more fed speak, we will hear from austan goolsbee this afternoon. do not miss that conversation at 14:30 cet. as we prepare for the holiday break, it is a busy week for the markets. we just had the latest ifo data for germany which was disappointing. tomorrow, attention turns to the bank of japan rate decision and

the cpi for the eurozone. we will have pboc announcement on wednesday and november inflation reading for the uk. always one to watch with the bank of england stance from the meeting last week. on thursday, we have final gdp numbers from the u.s. before the friday pce index print. there is a lot to get through on the penultimate trading week. let's get to our guest. let's start off with the general open question for you. do you expect the stock market performance to continue in 2024? >> we do have the outlook. we have the context which is favorable for modest gains in 2024. the good news is that the rally is broken. 2023, the first nine months, were driven by a small number of stocks. we believe that next year, we

might see a broadening, especially with the dollar weakening. other sectors and countries may participate in the bull market. you see that there are some of the laggards are coming back to the upside. >> i was looking at the chart out by robin wigglesworth stated after that fed meeting was an under performance from the magnificent seven which was leading for most of the year and out performance from unprofitable stocks. those parts of the market did well last week. if we do expect the rally to become more broad based, is it going to be one of actual value to the investor? will we be seeing a performance in stocks that should be doing well or is it just going to be a

frothy rally similar to 2021? >> the first comment is yes, this can broaden. it was a bit extreme in performance with seven stocks compared to the rest of the market. if you look at the short run, one of the reasons these rebounds from the laggards is so extreme is the fact that hedge funds started the fourth quarter with sure positions. you mentioned the tech stocks. they were short on many of them. this is why there are false buyers. if you look at the shorter stocks, they are up 39% quarter to date. we believe that maybe it got ahead of itself. if you look at 2024, we believe the broadening of the bull

market is a good thing, but it means there will be opportunities and stock picking opportunities in 2023. >> when i look back at 2023, the market narrative changed every couple months. we started off with higher for longer and it progressed higher until something breaks and now everyone assumes something has broken and a l of rate cuts in 2024. what is the macro narrative for 2024? >> ideally, it could be growth is slowing down, but no recession. the inflation front continues with monetary policy taking a turn. that looks to be too ideal sorry to remind you that it will be a election year in the u.s. 50% of the world gdp will face election next year. this has been the case in

history. when it is an election year, monetary policy is favorable and fiscal policy is favorable. it is usually a good year for the stock market. i think that politics will be a key driver next year. it doesn't mean we will have a volatile year. the overall context is favorable for equity markets. the narrative has changed a lot this year. it looks obvious now for some months that the fed needs to move ins t in terms of monetary po policy. one reason is 2%. thats why they need to cut next year. >> markets are prici in 145 basis points of rate cuts in 24 which is a lot. it will be interestingo see if it matches those expectations. we rallied a lot in the last

month. the ten-year yie at 4.5%. do you expect this bond rally to continue and where is the target? >> we made a call in october for long bondsin advising our clien to move long. the rally has been more aggressive than we thought. it has been very, very big rally. it is w up 20% from the lows in the bull market. we believe this cacontinue. 3.5% on the ten-year yield is the target. we have one issue which is the risk. next year, u.s. treasury will issue 25% more bonds than this year. they have huge debt. that means a lot of issuance coming. we can see that the standard election and the market is

becoming nervous. this will cap the upside for bonds with so much supply coming next year. >> best thing about your answer is the bond line. i'm always there for that. ank you for joining me today on "street signs." good luck in 2024. let me bring you corporate news today. annoced it will sell the platforms to ibm in the al it made a delisting offer to shareholders offering 32 euro per share. that acquired5% of the mpany this year. thstock is trading up 1% this morning. anvodafone and iliad

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welcome back to "street signs." shipping firms are avoiding the red sea with attacks on the commercial vessels in the area. msc is the latest freight company to avoid the area after sustaining damage from the drone attack. the drone targeting the red sea shipsping on saturday. it was carried outy the navy ship whi was helped for maritime.

maersk telling cnbc that recent attacks pose threats to employees. the pause in shipping means firms representing 40% of global trade are avoiding the area. let's get to the editor in chief for lloyds. thank you for joining us. big developments in the red sea the last couple days. you have maersk and others looking to avoid or divert from the red sea. w significant is that? >> huge. it is not just those when heard last night with e honk-cho honk-chonk-kong based shipping is avoiding and the chinese carriers are putting a pending notice on further routes through the red sea at the moment. all told, you are looking at most of the jor liners now

avoiding the red sea and taking the long way around the cape of good hope. it is adding a huge of capacity out of the market. that will have a significant effect on supply chain issues. that's going to be adding freight rates to the cost of shipping. longer term depends on how much support the lines now get from the navys. >> i guess the closest comparison we can draw is what happened with the evergreen when it got stuck. it was stuck. we know that had huge ramifications on containers and availability of vessels on shipping for the whole time it was shutdown. it was only seven days. this is a different situation. it is one of danger, actual danger to the vessels and employees and anyone on the vessels. what is the solution here?

>> well, that is a difficult question. in terms of the comparison with the evergiven, that was a seven-day shutdown of the suez canal. this has the potential to go on a lot longer. according to the suez canal authority last night, 35 ships diverted. that is the same number going through since the attacks started. at the moment, it is limited. if the reroutings we discussed happen and that is a sustained rerouting, you will see some fairly seismic activity in the implications for supply chains. i think there are differences here. the evergiven situation came where there were already existing issues with the supply chain. it is a different market now. lots of ships have been issued and it has overcapacity in the

market. in terms of sucking capacity out of the market, it will have a much more muted effect in terms of the immediate market implications. i think depending on how long this lasts, you are looking at 40% to 50% of capacity taken out. that will have fairly significant effects in terms of supply chain. egypt itself, the canal revenue for the waterway is under $10 billion last year. up from $7 billion the year before. that is a chunk of money out of egyptian revenue. >> for egypt, the country is on the brink economically. let me turn it back to what is shipped. the bulk of the red sea through the straits tends to be commodities. it is obviously going to impact oil and gas and other commodities as well. would you say the immediate implication is going to be on commodities and availability of commodities? >> all of the reroutings we have

seen so far are container ships. finish ed goods. that will not impact oil. we have not seen tankers rerouting. it is container ships we have seen hit. it depends on what happens over the next few days with the commodities. at the moment, the focus is on containers. we will see probably some changes in terms of rerouting in other ships as well. a lot depends on what happens with the navys, as i say. there is a huge amount of naval presence in the region. we are hearing talk of naval escorts. this is not the same as naval escorts deployed with somalia ten years ago. >> i was going to raise that as well. broader implications for the shipping sector. i know premiums have been going

up. this is different because it is houthi and it is drone attacks. it is not manual pirates getting on ships. they are drones. it is more difficult to insure against. what does this mean for premium space? it doesn't make sense for companies to go through the waters. >> you see the shipping rerouted. this is a risk of life. this is not the same as the prio pirates. that is a different threat from drone strikes with the naval presence sophisticated drone equipment. they will not detect the same

from the horn of africa ten years ago. you need an increased naval presence to get ships back through the red sea and suez canal. at the moment, we are not seeing sufficient navys coming in with proposals to allow ships to carry on. what happens over the next week is really significant. it is not just the question of naval escorts. we have to see if there are strikes and in terms of the houthi threat eliminated. >> obviously, it is the end of the year and we have people talk about the outlook for 2024. we may be staring at a black swan. richard, thank you for coming in and explaining to us the significant of the attacks. the maersk ceo will speak to us on tuesday. coming up on "street signs,"

we dig into the european banking sector with the ceo of the industry coming up. we'll being rig b rhtac

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> welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your monday morng headlines. little sign of the santa rally as the european equities start to the down side annud wa street looks muted. markets may have got ahead of themselv with rate cuts. >> we are focused on the question in front of us which is what chair powell said. have we gotten monetary policy to a restrictive stance to ensure inflation gets back down to 2%? from christmas giving with s silverlake and iliad teaming up withodafone. and maersk stops shipments

throh the suez canal with attacks from the houthi groups. and a call for a cease-fire in gaza after the death of three hostages over the weekend. great week for sck markets last week. the main event was the fed pivot or the fed gift to the mket. it propelled a massive rally in stocks and bonds. by friday, se of the rally had started to fizzle tout. some were pang attenon to the comments from john williams

who id it was too early to talk about rate cuts not just him, but fed president bostic also saying no cuts in the 2024 in the last quarter. there are 150 basis points for 2024. there is a question if the central banks can meet the expectations. we have the stoxx 600 trading fairly muted today. this is off a very strong week last week. we had record highs in the dax and cac 40 during the course of the week last week. today, we are coming off a little bit. the ibex and ftse 100, the only indices trading in the green. dax is down .10%. we had the german numbers disappointing on the expectations. not a did sign for the german economy. cac 40 is struggling this morning with a pull back in luxury names.

lvmh at the bottom of the sector. and ftse 100 is coming through with green with the rebound in commodities. namely in response to the dpee o geopolitical news in the red sea. in fx, this is the currency with the dollar trading weaker against the pound. shy of $127 for the pound. the yen in focus with the bank of japan meeting tomorrow. a couple of weeks ago, people expected them to move away from negative interest rate policy. those conversations are dialed back. most economists are not expecting the bank of japan to do anything until the spring of next year. 142.40 is where we are with the yen/dollar. yields and treasuries here

this morning with the price action muted. ten-year btp is 33.72. we have the bund always in focus and threatening to break through 2%. as for u.s. treasuries, the rally is continuing. two-year note at 4.41. ten-year note is 3.09. both down 30 basis points. as for u.s. futures, we had a mixed close on friday. following the john williams comments. today, all of the three indices are seen opening up in positive territory. the s&p is up 8 points and the dow up 60 and nasdaq in moderate territory.

for the latest segment, we want to look at the split in banks as markets reckon with pe interest rates and price in rate cuts from the ecb as soon as the srt of next year potentially. the split among the european lenders is pronounced over the last month or so. several big banks, particularly in northern europe, have enjoyed strong share pce gains with france bnp with double digit who was. the picture is less rosy in spain. they are pricing in peak profits with the lenders which are looking ahead to aower rate environment in 2024. let's bring in luke hickmore. it has been a while since we had you on the show. let's pick up on the divergence

taking place in the european banking space. for so much of the year, we have been talking about the strong performance. now in the last couple weeks, that is begiing to turn. what do you point that to doing? >> it is all about the real estate sector. people are looking past that and thinking late 2024 and 2025 with the loweinterest rates to give support to the real estate sector and the stresses and losses they may face in that space are fading away. at the same time, that nii story, particularly in spain, is coming right to the floor with gher interest rates and deposit beaters are difficult. they are starting to see more and more deposit flight. italy is a little unfair to be

bashing on them too hard. the italian banking system remains in good shape. less deposit flighin spain. that may be one of the ones that could be ieresting in 2024 than in italy. >> luke, every time i spoken to you, you expect your desire to hold bonds over equies. i get the impression that that sentiment is turning. you are beginning to buy equities over the bond story. >> i felt reluctant to be dragged into the equity market. it seems sensible with the european banks which trade on ten times pe. right now it is about six. even with lower interest rates next yeaand the issues in germany and the peripheral economies in spain, maybe seven

or eight times is sensible. they have ro to move forward. on the other side of the to get comparative yields which are really attractive. if you are facing 10 or 20 or 30% total equity returns and 6% or 10% of the 81 market, i tnk it starts to change thequation more to equity than bonds. fothe first time in a long time, u see 13 years. >> it is a valuation split at the end of the day. let's turn back to the macro stor markets are pricing in 100 basis points into next year in rate cuts. we spoke about net interest margins and lower interest rates taken the optical value is not going to be a youthful thing for the banks. how do you pick the winners? >> ones with less exposure to nii.

for example, you can look at the money in the uk. that is the casen the spanish s. banks. avoid those banks with high revenue or even pre-provision profits. there are a high portion from the nii. that is the first thing to do. as we go through next year, curves willsteepen. if they arborrowing at lower rates and lending at lower rates, that will drive them. i'm not seeing in eqty fo forecasts at the moment. >>n the political pressure on banks to raise the deposit rates in the outlook for next ar. i feel it is particularly pronounced in the uk. we are seeing it more and more in the uk banking performance.

>> that's for sure. have seen that in valuations as well. the market has punished the uk banks. they under performed significantly. 12% to 15% on average. that leaves them cheap. barclays on four times pce is daft when you have a bank with credit problems. the deposit flight for them and they have got exposure to nii for sure. they look really, really cheap at the moment. the market has gone too far with worrying about the deposit flight. as we go through next year and if we get the soft landing, which looks likely, credit losses should be lower, too. >> unfortunately, we have lost luke. a ame. he started to talk about the outlook. also he was saying he is con

stc constructive into 2024. there is an opportunity for those stocks tout perform. that was luke hickmore from be an aberdeen. and israel is facing issues over the increased pressure with the cease-fire from the uk and france and germany. the idf admitted to mistakenly killing three hostages waving a white flag. imf managing director has urged ukraine's allies to release billions in aid warning further holdouts could harm the country. they failed to come to agreement on funding and ukraine is counting on $41 billion in

support from allies. in 2024, it will be a big year for elections with the headline being a potential trump-biden rematch in the u.s. silvia amaro has more. >> reporter: 2024 will have several elections with implications across the world. in the u.s., the voters will head to the ballot box in november. the latest polling suggests a close race suggesting a 1% lead for president biden. a lot can change between now and november, this election will no doubt be followed across the world. here in the uk, the call for election by the end of the year. the vote will likely put an end to 14 years of conservative

leadership. therefore, it will start a new chapter in british politics. you see in the latest polling at the moment, the labour party is ahead with the voting tension. i want to take you to europe. citizens across all 27-member states are heading to the polls in june. domestic votes have raised concerns of the rise of the issues in europe and we could be looking at a more fragmented parliament. india will have a parliament vote in 2024. at the moment, the party of the prime minister, narendra modi, is in pole position to win this vote. this is not a democratic vote, but russia is due to have an election in 2024 for the president. putin has looked at cements power since the invasion of ukraine and he is unlikely to go anywhere. at the same time, there is a chance that ukraine will have a

vote for a presidential election in 2024 even if the war continues to drag. regardless of both outcomes, the war between kyiv and moscow is likely to remain a critical issue throughout next year. for cnbc, i'm silvia amaro. coming up on ts sh, chinese officials say the ouook for the second largest economy improving after a tough year. we'll bring you the latest after this break. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out eachpers and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for meo get all of my labels and get beauty in the hands of women who are battling cancer so much quicker shipstation the #1 choice of online sellers

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welcome back to the show. the central bank extravaganza is not over yet. the bank of japan will reveal the decision with details on the exit from ultra loose monetary policy on tuesday. the bank of japan is not sp expected to move away from negative interest rates especially after sales contracted more than expected in

the third quarter. the market anticipated that for a long time now, but they will not get it tomorrow. china stoc declined on mond following five eks of losses. risk senment is weak with the slugsh economic recovery and policy signals from the annual central work conference last week failed to excite investors. more favorable conditions and opportunities will outstrip challenges. beijing aims to shift from post-covid recovery to sustained growth. interesting as we head into 2024. duncan wrigley here is with me on set. good to have you with us, duncan. let's ask about the data drop from china last week. a couple of people picked on the fact that industrial production rose more than expectations. retail sales rose more than

expected. perhaps the part of the economy that is not doing well is the part of the economy they want to be doing better. >> that is true. i would also note a word of caution. the speeding up of industrial oduction growth was based on acceleted electricity producon. not manufacturing which is what you want to see. retail sales. work consumption is strong as china reopened this year has been in consumer services with tourism. that is seasonal. we saw a bump over summer and that is fading toward the end of the ye. >> how do you see consumption in 2024? that is a big question, of urse, and focus for policymakers. >> i see a pretty slowgentle recovery, frankly. sure, china licymakers want consumption to grow faster. when y look at the actua policies, they are not putting

in place the policies to boost demand. their mindset is there are not enough places toonsume. let's get local governments and more shopping malls and concerts. i think what it misses out is the reasons why consers are not consumer in china. number one, they lost income during strict covid. they are worried about the future and sentiment is weak unlike the u.s. or eure, china has not decided to stimulate the economy by giving large-scale consumer handout >> it is not conduci to a strong recovery in consumption for 2024. what about the property sector? we spent the year talking about the weakness in the property sector. th tried to stimulate funding on the property developer side. is that moving the needle? are we seeing a stabilization with property?

>> i think we are seeing, perhaps, stabilization. the property expect is for still a long, difficult recovery. you knowyou are right. they have all started to put together more policies. they have been finalized with the white li of 50 developers which are going to get funding support. that leaves a lot of questions. what about the other developers not on the lis fend for themselves? unclear. the other part is home buyer how do you get home buyers back the market? >> my question for you is can the chinese economy still perform if the property sector trades abysmally or in absence of new home pbuyers? is that giving the impetus to the home buyer in 2024? >> 2024 will be harder to get

e headline gdp growth. this year is a bit stronger. 2023 benefitted because 2022 was so weak. china is just comi out of it and it is a weak recovery and it hit the 5% growth target. next year is harder. that is a mathematical thing. you are absolutely right. the general sense of domestic demand in the chinese economy going into 2024 is going to be pretty weak with the property sector as a drag. >> what about monetary policy? other central banks are sounding do dovish. does that givehe pboc cover to go dovish? >> what is happeni with the rest of the world allows china more room if they wanted to lose even monetary policy. the signals from the work conference are very much fiscal policy used to prop up growth and monery policy playing

second fiddle. there y one or two intest ra cuts, but don't expeca stimulus. in terms of fiscal stimulus, how much of a boost can we expect in 2024 ove2023? >> i would s it would be a steady dollar additional support when and as needed. that iwhate saw a nth ago with the stimulus. the news todayf that being handed out. most of that is the first half of 2024. i expect we will see private economy consumption will le momentum. the economy is in the slow recovery. probably mid-year, the chinese government will say we need a bit of stimulus while the economy recovers. >> fair enough. what if you pencilled in for growth? >> we see growth falling to

around 4%. it will hit 5% on the ofcial target this year. something like tt. >> interesting to square that up against the broader back drop of the slower economy. duncan, wonderful to have you on the show. duncan wrigley from pantheon. ick ook at european markets. a mixed trading day after a strong week for stock markets. stoxx 600 th the fifth straight weekly gain on friday. longest streak since april. quick look at u.s. futures. all of the majors are opening up in the green. of course, that is it for our show. i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming next. one small smoothie is $14.63, please. $14 girl, what is you doing? but making smoothies is such a hassle. not with blendjet. what's going on? shhhh. hold that thought.

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