401(k) matching contribution, that is of the drawing card anymore. what employees are saying they want in terms of financial benefits is number one, pay the full rate for health insurance premiums. than the 401(k) match and that is gym mbership. r heth or that's what people are looking for right now. >> sron, thank you so much. thank you for watching power lunch. closing bell starts right now. welcome to closing bell. i'm scott walker life from post night at the new york stock exchange. this begins with a bull run in stocks, seven-week surgeon that is now caring the dow to another record high 50 smp within striking distance of its own milestone. how long can this incredible rally last? we will ask our experts over this final stretch including a bear who didn't seem ready to bridge the scorecard with 60 minutes to go and regulation looks like this. goldman, caterpillar, boeing leading today. take a look at the russell 2000.

soaring 12% over the past mont , as the small caps continue to roar back. lower interest rates, a big part of the story, yet again. all of it takes us to our talk of the take. why some bears won't buckle, even as sentiment continues to improve. the economy remains resilient, inflation falls and cash pours into stocks. let's welcome eric johnston, he is head of equity derivatives across asset here at post nine. welcome back. i have to say, i'm really glad you are here because i know you know what kinds of questions i'm going to ask you. it has been a tough year for the bears. what looked like was going to be a pretty good year has ended up being painful, right? from the first time you were on with me back in january, hot conviction bearish all the way through the years except for a brief moment of tactical time, i would say, and you remain, as you said decber 5th, bearish equities. how do you explain yourself mr.

johnston? >> it's been a year of multiple rewriting, so if you look at earnings since the beginning of the year, earnings were unchanged versus last year. they were about zero year-over year. the 10 year yield was higher on the yearcommodities were lower but stocks re-rated, they areow trading at a 21 1/2 times multiple on rnings. our view is that we thought if everyone went great they would trade at about 19 multiple as crazy as that sounds. 19 multiple, which would have been 42, 4300 in the s&p were at 4107 weeks ago as you know. we are now at much higher,1 1/2 times endings. we do not think this is a sustainable, but we also think you do have to be tactical from here because what we heard from the fomc was a positive. it was a positive for -- the pivot.

so you have a fed that is saying, we are not going to hit our inflation target until 202 , yet were going to cut rates three times in 2024. that is very equities friendly. very equities friendly. with that, financial conditions have loosened and net worth for consumers has risen. the things are a helpful ckdrop for equities and you have to be tactical from the short-term until that has proven different, which we think it will be, and we think that point u can see a sustained down move. >> what do you think you and other -- whether a strategist, market observer who have looked at this market throughout the year that most wrong? is it the fact that the economy remained a lot more resilient than you expected? that the amount of fed tightening that we had, which was historic and in the reasonably short period of time in which we had it did not have

nearly the dramatic impact as expected it would? >> i think it was the economy. if y think about what has happened, the fed went from 0 to 5%, right? we were at this full employment situation and yet here we are today, 7/4 gdp or this qrter is looking like it's going to be 2%. in a later marker, although it is slowing -- >> gdp just rated 2.7. that's not 2%. that's closer to three then to. >> 2.7%. right now the economy and for this full year has been far more resilient. it has not translated into earnings. ultimately, stock prices are based on a multiple on earning , and earnings were the growth rate was zero year-over-year. our view on that was correct. our view on the economy so far, it has been far more resilient than we expected. we think

risks for the economy remain very high, remain very hig >> why? given the pivot that you cited at the beginning. >> the unemployment rate is 3.7% . there have not been any bull markets that have started from a 3.7% unemployment rate. t typically ended with a 3.7% and implement rate. the unemployed right coming out of covid, 14% the financial crisis, 10%. out of the 2003, 7%. 1992, 7%. bull markets start with high and implement rates and the reason why you have the bull market is because labor is added throughout that time and you have this great run of the unemployment rate coming down year after year after year. >> you are citing periods of timehere we had crisis in which it forced the economy into the tank and the unemployment rate shot higher, the cycle ended, and then we started a new onafter that.

this time is different. isn't it? wh crisis did we have? we had inflationwhich was high . not for traditional reasons as t fed chair himself cited last week, not for a massive demand, but more so for supp chain issues, covid. >> but what bull market started with unemployment rateelow 4 ? what bull market started below 4%? >> maybe this one. >> maybe it is the first. maybe stocks trade at 30 times earnings. there could be a first for everything, of cours but if you look back in history like we do for everything we value stocks and look at the market, you have to look at history. and also it's sort of, it makes sense. if you're at full ployment, how are you going to have a growing economy for a long peri of time and see that

going earnings for a long period of me? it's not just looking at the data from history, it's also that makes sense. the second point i would make is, you haveo preciate the multiple. stocks can be overvalued for a longeriod of time. they were overvalued during the bubble of the tech bubble and the year 2000. they have always reverted to below 1817 times earnings and we are currently at this multiple that has never been sustained. was sustained for a while during the internet bubble, but ultimately it ashed 50%. >> golan sachs would tell you you can maintain 19 multiple on stocks if the economy remains as resilient as it has been and interest rates continue to come down. which they seem to be on the trajectory of doing. that is kind of what the bull case is predicated on. earnings are going to be good enough. they have already trapped. we went through and earnings recession. now you are going to tell me earnings are going to be terrible as the economy is

hanging in there and fed is cutting rates and inflation is coming down? >> earnings are at a historic high. they are unchanged with last year. from 2019, if you put covid aside and earnings, 10% every year and pretend covid didn't happen, we would be right now at peak earnings. yes they are historically high earnings. as far as the multiple, right now the 10 year yield is 4%. the 10 year yield is between four and 5% from 2001 to 2008 as an example. the multiples between 12 and 17 1/2 during that time period. it's not normal based on history to have a 19 -- multiple is currently 21 1/2 --. >> what is the multiple on the equal weight s&p? >> 6 1/2, 17 times. >> you know i am asking? >> the s&p 500 we are talking about is about equally rated. you have to look at the entire

-- of to the s&p 500 index, you have to include the entire part of it and the entire index is growing zero, has a 21 1/2 times multiple. when i said have to be technical, i don't expect valuations are not going to be something that is going to cause a turn lower, but when that turn does happen, it makes the drop that much larger. and so when i say you have to be tactical the next two weeks, am i bearish? no. you have to be tactical in this window right now where the market is seeing goldilocks. i can completely understand. the backdrop for anybody that has a nine-month perspective, i think equities are going to be a poor investment because of those, not only are the multiples to high, but positioning is very full from the individual investor to the systematic institution. >> you think it's full

$6 trillion in money market funds? you think positioning is full and the equity market? >> yes. would put a note out today that i think is very important. we have been hearing thi narrative about there is a lot of ch on the sidelines. we think that is a complete fallacy and i will tell you white with numbers. people have cash in two places, checking accounts like deposits in banks and money market funds. money market fund assets have surged but deposits at banks have come off but about $1 trillion as people have moved out of regional banks and moved money from zero rates to money market funds tt have interest rates. you also have to look at it lleted to the stock market. we are talking about people considering moving cash to stocks. right now, deposits plus money market funds divided by the capitalization of equity markets is a 49% which is basically a year low. 20 year low. the only time it was lower was one year in 2021 when rates

cash relative to the stock market right now is actually not only is it not high, it is actually at the lowest. we put out a greathart today. >> let's expand the conversation bring in marcy mcgregor of maryland. inc. of america private banks, sitting here patiently listening. formulating how you want to respond. how do you exit what you say to someone like eric who this it's like the case is he makes his not plausible. they just haven't worked out f his view of where the market would be at this time. >> when i think about this economy, what we are getting from the conversation is this undercurrent of fiscal spending that is happening all year and that is becausthe u.s. economy, to defy gravity. when i think about next year as a presidential election year, there is a reason you have to go back to 1952 for a presidential election year where the s&p finishedn the red and that is because the

white house wi throw all the policy tools they can at the economy tovoid a recession. that comes down to now we have a market where the fed will be cutting in our view as soon as march and in a st landing scenario, i think it comes down to what is theeds messaging? if the fed is messaging they are calibrating, not fighting an economy that is really falling off a cliff, i look back at history and go back to the mid-1970s, one month, six month, 12 months from fed cuts, the first fed cut you have a market that is up 2%, 5% and about 12%, so i think the rket is going to like a fed that is cutting and will have a monetary easing to go with this fiscal tell when. >> it sounds as though this is not more complicated for you- don't fight the fed. don't fight them when they are hiking, certainly don't fight them when they are cutting. >> i'm a believer that the the next couple eks but i doin think when we turn the calendar

page, data is going to confront the economy is slowing. we get to that choppy time or the fed is cutting. ere is geopolitics, crosurrents, but i think it is a choppy uptrend when i think about this broader market. i wouldn't fight the fed. define gravity on us and the consumer stays strg and that keeps me thinking earnings will be positive in 24. >> what if would change the words flowing to normalizing? of course it is slowing but maybe it is just normalizing. >> if we can have an economy that is going to grow one and a half 2% in perpetuity for the might be able to crank out some very low returns i think in equities. >> what if is higher? why ha you gone from -- i'm not saying the atlanta fed gdp now is the gosl because i think we leaed over the course of time, someat consistently, that it has not been. however, how do you go from 27

to 1 1/2? >> economic growth, jobs, number of people in the economy times productivity, productivity , maybe that conties to expand, but --. >> productivity has been expanding. that is part of the bowl thesis. you want to acknowledge that? >> i just acknowledged it. their productivity. i will say, those are the two factors. the job part i addressed, which is that when you are at full employment it is hard to grow those jobs from productivity standpoint, yes, that can grow. it is just that, if that is the only part of that equation that is working, then it is probably not going to lead to the excess growth for a long period of time that would be required to get earnings growth to really rally. >> i would ask, marcy, simple question, is it time to be

bullish in u.s. stocks or not? >> i think we are in an overall uptrend. we have been bullish with a slight overweight on u.s. large- cap equities all year. 71% of this market of the s&p 500 has underperformed the index. i think this is going to be a year over broadening out, the magnificent seven have led the way but they are not pulling their weight in terms of earnings if you look at earnings relative to market cap. that is the risk. how will the market treat them if there is an earnings miss? this is going to be a year of broadening out. i'm not ready to go overweight small caps just yet, but i think they're having some resistance but we have a pulse, finally. i would continue to stay the course. i like quality. i like u.s. large-cap over the rest of the world. i would think about big picture themes when i think about position for the year ahead. >> we have more than a pulse at this point. is like a rapid heart rate. given what has happened in a really short period of time. you believe in the broadening?

>> i think broadening for the next two or three weeks, yes. beyond that, no. i think as we look out the next 3 to 6 months, the mega cap same of outperforming the rest of the other 493 and small caps is going to continue. the reason why is that the headwinds -- returns at this year, it right for mega cap relative to -- if you look at two-year returns, not that it's an basis for any think two-year returns are unchanged relative to rest of the market. i think the secular trends between where mega cap is and headwinds for the rest, which is higher rates, access to credit et cetera is going to be a headwind until we see economic weakness. >> elect the phrase high conviction bearish equities. what gets you to come here and tell me your high conviction bullish? what happens? what has to happen? >> yet. >> i'm not to be smug with you. i just want to know, because

you use that phrase a lot when you have come here. what you need to see for you to come sit in that chair next to me and say, i have changed my view. i'm high conviction bullish? >> i would tell you, to be -- for someone to come here and say -- let me rephrase that. i would not be able to come here and say hi conviction bullish based on the current multiples, where we are in the cycle, where earnings are, where positioning is, it's not even close. what i would need is to see the recession or close to a recession where people think it is coming. we have a big scare him and an employment rate starts to about 4%, a little bit of a cleansing, and lower prices and that would get me there. until then, again tactically, different story. there has been periods of the last seven weeks were technically i have been bullish. and like i said, from the fed

what we just heard was a positive and i think that right now the markets are sing ts is a goldilocks scenario and i don't think it is going be changed or proven differently in the next week. to be clear. >> what about areas specifically that have lagged the new ar. nk could do well in forget small caps. things like energy, can't get out of its own way. healthcare. things like that. >> look at the flows the outflows out of healthcare have been extreme. that perks me up a little bit, but big picture, one of our long-term themes is around longevity, the graying of the global copulation. that tells me biofarm is an opportunity and healthcare is the economy is set to slow which i agree with in 2024. usually with micro headwinds. i like healthcare. i like energy. i like aerospace and defense. there is a long runway, pun intended, of catchup spending here on defense.

>> what about treasuries? you like any part of the curve? >> i think yields are towards the floor, at e moment. i don't think we will see them move any lower in the course of the next 1 to 2 months. right now, the markets pricing in six fatcats for next year. one of the questions, i would pose is, why is the right market pricing in six cuts? is it possible to have an economy that is doing well as the prices rising and the fed to cutix times? if the answer is no which would be my answer but everybody can have their own opinion, what is the right market saying? what is the right market saying that maybe is different than the equity market? >> the right market suggesting i think the fed is going to be able to cut, maybe not six times but let's say six for argument six, they will be able to cut

because they can and not because they have to. i use the word normalizing again because inflation is normalizing. they don't need to keep rates as restrictive, what to do damage to the economy and the way they don't need to. >> for 2 or three times, i get, but cutting six times in an economy we are talking about two and half percent growth, stocks going up 10% and then cutting six times? that doesn't seem like that goes together. again, maybe that will be another anomaly that will out there, but that certainly is raising eyebrows from my perspective. >> a look a your pc, we look back at octobers numbers it is half of what was in january. were headed back to the feds targets. i agree, i don't think the fed cut six times. arboristcases four. that is not a huge gap between

our view and the feds, so i think inflation, to use your word, keeps normalizing. >> powell basically almost front ran pce at the news conference, right? they expect it -- i would expect a good read based on what he said. i don't know how much mystery is left in all of that. i have appreciated your time. i have enjoyed sparring with you throughout this year and i wish you well. all right. joining us let's send it over to christina for a look at the biggest names in this market. christina? >> tly shares are getting a pop with thereby renting report called a tail wagging opportunity. ey say that commerce websi should benefit from benefit from penetrations. of course from their high income customers who will continue to end even in a high inflation environment. shares are up almost 9%. macy's also climbing almost 2%

after rgan stanley increased its price target to $21, although the retail analyst over there aren't coinced that the rect almo $6 biion bid to acquire macy's will actually follow through, but they do value macy's real estate at roughly six to $7 billion and believe macy's credit offering is attractive versus peers so that's what they have a buy rati. shares are up a little under 2%. >> we will be back to a just a bit. we are getting started here. up next, 2024 playbook. one of baron's top advisers is back, treasury partners, richard saperstein reveals what he sees opportunity ahead. that is after the brea we're live from new york stock exchange and you're watching closing bell on cnbc you know what's interesting these days? bitcoin. look for bitwise, my friends.

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the s&p is itching to its record high. dow reaching to a new record high as well. next guess expects this moment to continue into q1. join me richard saperstein. just ranked number four on baron's top 100 financial advisers of 2023. regulations. it's nice to have you back. we were parading on the barrister today. you have been bearish. roadkill. bears have gone runover. >> i think it is more nuanced than that because scott we always on equities but the opportunity this year was a once in 15 your opportunity in a mini bond market where we add in tax-free bonds, 4 to 5% yield, locked into 10 years. look at what that does for a portfolio if the economy slows,

which we think it will do, rates will go down and these bonds will go up in value and you can look at what happened last month where we had a moving in the bond markete had not seen in 40 years. >> you manage 9 billion for clients. you may some of the right moves, obviously, or you would not be number four in the top 100 financial advisers of 2023. muniz clearly worked well for you. what did you miss in the stock market? and why? >> we were -- we are and were overweight big tech. so, i don't look at it as missing or getting because you look at the two-year return on the s&p, it is 3.1%. to your return, 2.6%. we are looking at shorter periods of time, we are looking at extended periods of time. right now we think stocks go higher. we are not looking to change our asset allocation. >> you told me you had -- you

told me this has changed. you have maintained throughout the balance of this year, and correct me if i'm wrong, you have had more cash than you have ever had. is that true? >> deployed into bonds. >> all deployed into bonds? >> we are chock-full of muni's and we just got an amazing run in interest rates in the last six weeks. so the tenure went from 5.8 down to for pick -- four. smith november the best since the 1980s. what allows you to be more positive equities? >> show me the earnings, scott. we have at 245 estimate from next year. we still have 11% increase. we still have the lagged effects of the feds tightening, that are still slowing economy. the real question is, will we see the earnings come in at 245 next year? what will cause me to turn -- i think the

inflation thing is pretty much controlled right now. the fed pipit is a positive. that's why we think we will see rising stocks next year, especially in the first quarter. however, there is consensus on soft landing, even though housing is flowing, tighter credit spreads. everybody is marching in the same direction. i think that is one concern that we should all think about. >> i will give it to you that, let's say for the last few weeks , sentiment has clearly changed to aegree where there are a lot of people in the same set of the boat. however, there are so many bears. there are so many bearish people out there. i don't feel like we are in some raging new ball environment as it relates to sentiment unnecessarily. do you? >> with multiples right now at 19 .3 times ne year's estimate? it is fairly elevated, although when we look at earning, the p/e ratio with 30% of the maet in the seven you are

going to have natural higher multiple than we had historically over the last 20 years. >> if the ecomy remains resilient, we discussed in the last segment, the economy mains resilient and interest rates continue to come down, earnings are going to hang in, if those scenarios happen. erratically, thasupports higher multiples. >> i think that is a big if, because we still are cck-full of stocks and now we have our muniz, but the bigf is if the econy slows not hard enough, in which caswe can see earnings get to 245 while th fed is in a more moderate campaign right now. a lot of thinghave to still come into play. i don't think we are out of the woods in 2024 on economic landscape --. >> in terms of the fed pivoting, do you feel like tha is as significant as it seems to be? in other words, if i ask you,

the answer is no by the wa-- if i ask you before they started tightening, hey, these guys are going to tighten 500+ basis points in 17 to 18 month , he would say, that is deniably a negative, i'd want to be anywhere near the equity market. now, i'm telling you they have pivoted and they are goingo cut significantly next year, why can't you tell me at that moment then, you know what, i want to overweight u.s. equities rative to my muni position >> i willisten to what they say but i wouldn't follow the tures market, which has been wrong, because the futures mark in january is calling for federate cuts in july of this year. the futures market is overstepping, or the fed actually goes. i don't e the fed cutting until second half of the year, and then as your prior guest said, are they cutting because they cou or because they have to? that's one of the questions. but --

>> are we getting for that answer? they are cutting because they can? >> that remains to be seen. again, unemployment is slow, which is positive. they could cut as long as the inflation keeps comi down. >> i think we will lve it there. number four on the barents top 100 financial advise of 2023. we will see what 24 brings. we have christine joing us with treasury partners. consensus seems to favor upcoming cuts. the former vice chair of morgan stanley gary kaminski isn't so sure. he explains write your post nine after the break

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stocks staging a double- digit rally since the art of november fueled by a sharprop in yields and rising expectations for rate cuts. my next guest says the narrative that the fed has done hiking, not a sure thing. joining me post nines ry

kaminski, former vice president of morgan stanley. welcome back. we havknown each other for a long time. you have seea lot of markets how do you assess wh is happened in this market, especially over the last six weeks? >> let me just say, i'm down here today, we will ring the closing bell. almost 40 years i have known joe. he is an a great job with the etf. i just want to mention that. >> you will be very happy you said that. >> i listened for the last 36 minutes and everybody is certain that that pipit, pipit party, the fed has telegraphed the are going to cut rates. i heard a couple guests say inflation is under control. last i looked, inflation at 4% compounded over five years, individuals lose a third of their purchasing power. that does not mean inflation is under control. directionally, inflation is under control, but --. >> isn't that what matters? >> no.

the fed is not going to sit tight at 4% inflation rate. that is not the mandate and that would be detrimental to consumers in this country. >> why do you think it is going to stay at 4%? it is trending towards target. >> you and i have had this discussion off-camera for a year . consumer spending has not been dramatically impacted by 500 basis points of interest rates. a lot of it has to do with the fact that economists have not been able to figure out the traditional impact intert rates on spending because of post-covid. we just don't understand, economists don't understand ho people spend money in the post covid world. the traditional way of looking about interest rates a aving an impact onlowing down the economy, it just hasn't happened. >> there waso much money thi . there was so much money pumped into the system as i have used the example of going into these historic rate hikes that we have gotten from the federal the mattress, what is like this was like this.

it is cushioning the whole economy on the way down and enabled consumers who are flush with cash who have jobs to contue to spend. >> yes, they have jobs and they have cash, but i'm telling you that, going to a legendary investor who made a comment to the firm, we don't have economists because if we have economists, we have to pay the economist and if we pay the economist, we may want to listen to the economist. i say that because it is important to recognize that every economist got this your wrong. economists were supposed to say we were in a recession. the economy continue to grow. there is a strong possibility, maybe ability that we will continue to grow early next year. if interest rates, if inflation stays at 4% and it doesn't go down, the fed is going to look himself in the mirror and make a determination. do we have to raise one more additional time to send market to the -- to

send a message to the economy that this is what they are trying to do? that's the only tool they have. >> and it is coming down. >> it is coming down but 4% -- or percent inflation over a five-year period compounded, you lose purchasing power. that is the worst thing that can happen to the american public. >> are you suggesting the consumer is finally going to run out of gas and the economy is going to start to slow while inflation remains elevated? >> the consumer has spent much more in the last year, this year than anybody anticipated that anybody who came on the network as an economist would have predicted. >> chairman of the federal reserve himself has already said, they didn't expect growth to be as strong as it is today, nor did they expect inflation to be as far down from where it was today either. they themselves thought they would be doing more. >> what does saperstein just tell you? you said a year ago they

thought they might be cutting rates in the middle of 23, so it's in motion. all i'm saying is, i spent close to 40 years managing money for individuals. and institutions but my job was to protect capital. i hope i'm wrong and i hope rates get cut next year. i did the same thing as rich, i moved down my municipal bond portfolio duration five weeks ago. it has been a great trade. i didn't do as a trade. i did it because that's what i think is the right thing to do for capital. >> are you negative equities for 2024? >> absolutely not. what i think is good for the equity market is the fact that the concentration in the 10 stocks, the power of the s&p 500 , provides some of your other guests set, the other 490 that trade at below the s&p multiple adjusted because they have the opportunity given that concentration that happened. we have concentration like that in 99, we had concentration like that post 2008. i don't think i can sit here

and say i'm a bear on the market, but there is a lot of things that have happened outside the magnificent seven, superintend whatever you want to call them, that have given the opportunity that if you're wrong, if i'm wrong about rates and the fed is cutting early 2024, stock market is going to be a good place to invest. remember, there are other things to do outside of just by those big cap stocks. >> you walked into my last question. you have been managing money for people for 40 years. so, you did yourself. >> i look pretty good though, don't i? >> yes you do. what would your ideal portfolio from an allocation standpoint given you review, what would that look like today? >> i think i'm still a believer and i know it has been really debated quite a bit in the 6040 portfolio, and again if you tell somebody simplistically, if you give somebody a risk assessment and talk about their age, if you are 50 years old

you should probably be 50% equities, 50% fixed income, i'm also a big believer in alternatives. the alternative space given what has happened in the banking world has provided huge opportunities in private equity. as you know, my largest personal investment is in the publicly traded private equity stock blew our. it is up 45% this year. the dividend is growing. hear about that but those are the opportunities. i'm thinking optimal is a mix for somebody looking for long- term growth has to include fixed income. i have been there. i have done for myself. i ate my own cooking but alternatives comics easement, is necessary given the way the capital markets work today there's too much opportunity in that space not to just have a traditional stocks and bonds allocation. i appreciate this. great to see you. >> congratulations to joe. >> we are excited out what is going to happen at the close. that's gary kamiki joining us

post nine. next solar stocks are soaring. wh is sending that group higher just after the group. closing bell, right back

we are less than 15 from the closing bell. let's send it

to pippa stevens for the big movers in the solar space. >> bouncing back after a bullish wall street commentary, presidential installers and about is the top performer with son run also higher after pipers upgraded the stocks to overweight based on rates coming down. son power also in the green today recouping some of yesterday's 31% drop. you can see it there after the company restated its finality of this financial. its ability to continue is a growing concern. and phase last night announcing a restructuring including laying off about 10% of its staff as it looks to right size operations. also makes future earnings less attractive when you can clearly see this relationship, if you look at the performance since the feds meeting last week, we indicated rate cuts could be coming. scott? >> appreciate that. thank you. of next a firm share shooting higher. the stock is up more than 16%

we have the details behind the company's latest tie up and that has investors cheering today, closing bell is coming right back you know what's interesting these days? bitcoin. look for bitwise, my friends.

up next countdown to fedex we will bring you around up of en we numbers. whe take you inside the markets.

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you know what's interesting these days? bitcoin. look for bitwise, my friends. we are now at the closing bell. mike sent holy here to break down the crucial moments of this trading day. the partnership that is sending a firm shares story and that numbers to watch for one fedex earnings to the table. i will start with you, back to form with this end of day little pop. >> we are locked into those tracks that were late at the very end of 2021 that got us to those all-time highs following even along the same introductory for weeks at a time. don't think that has is up for what we got in january 2022, which was, let's remember, clear all-time highs. you have to balance out a

couple of things. market has gotten and is staying very overbought. it is stretched anybody would say there's a little bit of risk and the real short-term at an entry, very aggressively at the levels. on the other hand, things are breaking up the s&p has gone nowhere in two years. not one of the magnificent seven stocks except for tesla is a trading at as high a valuation as it was at its peak in 1920 21. you have things like banks and small caps that have done nothing forever and are just kind of hitting the upper end of the ranges that have been in place for a couple of years. it's really hard to say the entire market has gotten ahead of itself, even if you can look at the s&p and say, okay, it is running a touch high. >> i'm looking at the russell up at 7 1/2%. it is stunning. affirm, what is happening here? >> the big news around affirm and sending shares up double digits, it has been about this expanded walmart partnership. loans will be available for the first time at self checkout

kiosks at 4500 stores, walmart stores, they have been available on walmart.com so it does expand , an existing partnership of 60% or so. likely assurance with playing out in the stock that has been a frequent dynamic with these dramatic price swings. offer is one of the most highly shorted names by 21%. the affirm rally continues despite. calling the lenders valuation untenable earlier in the week. checkout shares of robin hood, the company showing positive data. inbound deposits has been offering 1% bonus on transfers in. there is also a cats in. they have attracted about $1 billion in new assets. are looking to steal market shares. >> frank holland on what to expect from fedex. frankie. >> fedex lower right now but trading pretty close to a two- year high. u.p.s.

year-to-date. they continue to show confidence in the company's business transformation and cost-cutting efforts. for the current quarter, margin is really key, especially for express. fedex gets half of revenue from air delivery. it is forecast to be 3.6% compared to 3.2% a year ago. that might sound low but that margin expansion, that will get further evidence streamlining efforts are working for fedex. investors and analysts are both looking for a possible right after fedex beat rachel escorted purposes following fedex raising its overall shipping rates by about 6% starting in january. raising its price for for expressing the cost-cutting and sing the stock is undervalued. forecasting improvements in ground in part due to fedex winning siness from u.p.s. going to teamster negotiations. those earnings right after the bell, scott. >> i look forward to you then. thank you, frank. micah, i turned back to you. the naaq almost at 50 k. dow

above 735. >> all the signals we have seen in terms of the broadening, everything we have been waiting for. lookt the percentage of stocks at whatever moving average one. percentage of stocks making the new four-week high. if we have anything of that sort also the same thin which is, what has gone up a ton in a short piod of time but the forward implications of that, ifou go out at least a few months are positive. in other words, this rare momentum signal. people getting back into the game. i'm sensitive to the idea that a lot of people are discovering this market is up a lot. they have set it ut. they want to participate is fear of missing t. all of that stuff but on the other hand him a it doesn't feel like it is played out yet. >> we shall see. that mike sent holy. were a special one here at the new york stock exchange today because on the podium is our friend joe because virtus is celebrating their new etf. is the three year annirsary.

he is up there with his family. he is going to ring the closing bell and we will go out with a new all-time high on the dow jones industrial average. i'm sending it over. i will see you tomorrow another record close for the dow industrial, the s&p less than 1% from a new all- time high as well, but small caps, the real upper former today, that is the scorecard on wall street where the action is getting started. welcome to closing bell overtime. >> we are in the last maybury major earning reports of the your. just minutes fedex shares results. we are going to bring you the numbers and expert analysis. >> we will talk about investing in defense as tensions ramp in the red sea with doug philip own, global head