the floor is yours. we are going to miss you so much. >> i need it. everyone has to watch peacock. >> we have the exclusive streaming playoff game. >> bill belichick is out. what do you think about bill belichick and nick sabin? >> we are not going to let them get too comfortable. >> closing bell, start right now. >> welcome to closing bell right now. wall street, playing it cool after another report. very firm. 1% come back from early losses. after the headline, cpi came in above expectations. leading the s&p 500 1% away from the record high.

big gross names have continued to bolster the index. they have come ack from the early weakness to about the flightline. small banks are continuing to struggle. we have fourth quarter rallies. the treasure market could put them in stride. this is across the board. they refused to ratify market expectations from the rates coming soon. that leads us to the talk of the tape. they lower the bar hopefully? they have the economic soft country landing. some of the should not be taken for granted just yet. let's get into all of that. great to see you. >> nice to see you too. >> the simple story of how stocks have held up as well, as they have for a while. inflation is coming down faster than the economy. with last friday's job numbers,

how do you think that feels in terms of setting up expectations for the markets and economy this year? >> it was a little bit hotter than expected read we are at that point in the disinflation cycle, where you are not going to be being linear. we have forces, including things like geopolitics in the mideast that is looking at a nice, clean path. they are getting back to the target. as you point out, there is still a disconnect essentially to what they have been saying. looking at the summit of economic projections. i was a little bit surprised that you see much of a movement, in terms of expectations. some of them were staying the same in terms of profitability. this is in terms of the market expectations. >> we do have that eport.

this is the feds actual inflation target. with all that being said, how much do you think the price expectations are from the futures market? this is somewhere along the spectrum of possibilities. how much does the stock market rely on these rate cuts this year? >> i guess we are going to have to see to the extent of the market expectations. the fed has to more aggressively push back. they have to do what they don't tend to do. they have to surprise the march meeting, by going against expectations. some of them don't adjust between now and then. this is a swift adjustment. not only has the market done

well and stabilized, it is because of the expectation of the yield moving down. the fed is starting to cut interest rates. that helps to explain move down the cap spectrum. not every day. some of what we have seen in the small caps, have equal weight, relative to cap weight. this is what you do see with a little bit of effort. today is a perfect example of that. earlier this afternoon, the energy was in the green. he saw technology leapfrog that. i think that there is still some money that automatically goes back to the corner. if we have any uncertainty, it is written in regards o what has happened. we have different yields and other unfit policies. >> this is the efense of trade. it feels like the easy way to hide a little bit. what do you think of the overall action so far this

year? we are trying to figure out how much we are reacting to the data in the last week or two. we are trying to digest a massive rally from the final two months of last year. everyone's acknowledgment got everyone stressed. you had needed to come off. where does that leave us? >> it is mixed right now. you had some of the attitude surveys that had sentiments. this again pretty rampant. this had eased pretty quickly. this was alongside some of the weakness that we saw from the cap spectrum. look over the last four to six weeks. you have seen that performance from equal weight down the cap spectrum. i think investors should be really cautious if they are looking for opportunities outside of not just the magnificent seven. we have other communication services and consumer discretionary's. we have a different base for ideas.

we still have a hefty share of companies. some of these viewers aren't aware. they have that profitability filter. start with a higher-quality component of stops. this is from which to choose. i don't think you want to sacrifice quality from a factor perspective. we are emphasizing what we used to call a different approach. look for those growth factors. this is without sacrificing evaluation factors. >> growth at a reasonable price is a different approach. quality really performed great last year. this was based on most of the approaches. they have so many of those big technology names that work. this is a quality filter. are there other ways to approach it? are there modifications that you would make to make sure

that you have quality more in the bottom base? as opposed to something else? >> this is absolutely true. if you would have taken a quality-based approach, you would have benefited from getting those names near the magnificent seven. they have strong interests covered. we have some of those factors that were leadership factors from last year. to some degree, that will continue. leadership at the factor level, was pretty consistent last year, outside of those names too. i think you can apply factor- based screening. this is what we have been emphasizing. this is a different blend of quality factors. higher return on equities. stronger cash flow. positive earnings. we have revisions. we have been emphasizing this a lot from last year. we could change the interest coverage. we are getting to the point where they have actually looked at the monetary policy.

that could fit as a dominant concern. that was the case where we wanted to look for those companies that have that strong interest coverage. those be the theories of emphasis. you can apply the factors across the spectrum of sectors. across the spectrum from a cap perspective. >> if you want to emphasize those companies that have more consistent, predictable earnings power, and better balance sheets, do you look at the overall strong learning actions? are you going to contend with pockets of economic weakness? if you really believed the economy was going to accelerate and cut, you might say to buy lower quality. >> i'm not looking at the current earnings season, in terms of whether the bar is set higher or not. we are getting a better than average be great. i'm paying more close attention

to it. this really has panned out over the last several quarters. we are looking at the performance. we have seen over the last several quarters, is the benefit of group to the stocks and companies that have bitten them from behind. they are taking a hit. these companies have missed. we have these reports that are particularly important. the differential between top and bottom line, the protection of margins, if they have been, how are they doing from a cost- cutting perspective of productivity? they are not flying blind like they were a couple of years ago during the worst part of the pandemic. they are not being given the same kind of precision around guidance. allowing them to be competent with these estimates. generally, they are making an adjustment out one or two quarters, based on the company say during the reporting period. we are in that outlook period. we may get a better sense of

the calendar year 2024. this is with less double digits. that is realistic. this is embedded into evaluation models. these are the bigger picture things to focus on. >> absolutely. let's bring in cnbc contributor, and financial terrorism. we were just remarking on the tapes and resilience today, if nothing else. all year, it has never sustained the selloffs. they have small-cap performances. does that tell you anything? >> you don't want to concentrate the direction of consensus. consensus in 2023, was wrong. so far, 2024, would have had you moving away from quality. to your point, it is really all about those mega cap names. they are leading us higher, excluding apple and tesla. they are incredibly important

and resilient. they seem to have a buffer when you have these selloffs. overall, volatility is going to remain elevated. we have had quite a ride today. they have seen it go down, backup, and then low again. we have this friction, for what is going to happen with the margin rate. >> you have to live with that. that is your question for a little while. you don't necessarily think we should be able to pencil in the earnings growth? is the fed starting to ease up anytime soon? what lead you to all of that? >> in terms of the earnings growth, there is no path for us to get to a percent in the first quarter. certainly, no path to 12% earnings growth for 2024 for a calendar year. this is the number of rate cuts that the concessions -- consensus was expecting.

within 2023, there was no pathway to a percent growth in the fourth quarter. here we are, starting with that expectation. we have 1.3% as the expectation now. historically, we have downward positions of that magnitude. this is a strong head wind to these equities. i'm looking to be equally dubious about next year. it might not matter again. we know the reasons why it didn't. we had some positive earnings revisions. gdp was resilient. we are experiencing that growth. that is the risk. >> sure. nobody is really expecting you to get any help from red cuts from the economy. what we have right now, is what we are going to be hearing about in three or four months most likely. we were at this level two years ago. the forward earnings at least are higher now than they were

back in. we were looking at this cosmetically. do you think that is enough? >> i don't think that is enough. i think the catalyst to something else. i think they do expect another rate cut. i think the fed after their pivot, has been curiously walking that back across the board. every governor has been reminding us that they haven't taken further things off of the table. it is more likely that we get another rate hike. we are getting cut in the first quarter. the data is in supporting us reaching the 2% level that they are aiming for. unemployment is not budging. we have historically low claims. with what we just saw, this continues to grow. this is a different basis point range. we haven't reached a new paradigm of this inflation to get us where they are targeting. we are going to have strong growth. this leads to strong service

inflation. the housing component has not capitulated in the way that the surface point is going. i thought it might have been when we saw that point two months ago. here we are, back in the similar range. >> first of all, what we know from the fed's policy, they think the neutral rate is way lower. maybe 2.5%. they know they are at 5.5. they don't want that gap to be as wide. they don't want to be restrictive. of course, we will be cutting before inflation has been here. all of that together, suggest that it is when, not if. >> i don't view today's cpi as an inflection point. you will et that tomorrow. we have another inflation trend that has not been defeated. we have the federal reserve that is no longer part of the

adversaries. where is that in regards to earnings? a percent earnings growth in the first quarter is very optimistic. i understand that. you can see strength and communication services. technology and consumed discretionary. earnings will matter when you can find the recovery in energy and materials. what about healthcare and small caps? they are still in a technical earnings recession. looking towards the doors, is one is going to put us towards the future, and what matters the most. >> this is head of your area. this will likely at the peak rate. that has validated what we have thought. this is what we were talking about here, in terms of transitioning into easing modes. this brings us to this idea of what we do about setting expectations for the global

economy, and what they can deliver. it seems as if we all know, recession was a foregone conclusion at the end of last year. people thought we escaped it. we were looking at rolling recessions in a nuanced type of cycle. how does it look right now? >> the whole nature of the cycle, is continuing in the near-term. assuming at some point, we see a hit to the services, and they have been picking up these things, they know it was quite weak in these recent readings. as soon as we get a dent on that side of the economy, the hope is that you have resilience or the start of recovery in areas that have taken their big hits, and had manufacturers in housing related. that could persist. that is the way i think of the best case scenario, versus traditional soft landings. these were the afro mentioned areas that have gotten hit.

globally, it is interesting. if you think about the quadrants of inflation, and disinflation, and the other bus, you can find other countries that are all over the map. i don't think we can look at this world monolithically. even where they are in the growth cycle. this is where they are in terms of inflation cycles. each region and country has its own set of dynamics. in turn, leads to what happens in regards to central-bank policies. i think this is not an environment. either of the stock market level, or from that perspective, or you can look with this monolithic lens of what is going on in the world. >> to some degree, the markets around the world have deflected that. if you are thinking that the economy looks more sturdy than people think, it remains relatively strong, they are not going to always come through across the board. where does this leave you with

investment tactics? how can you set yourself up for the year? >> it leaves me right between the two narratives that we were hearing. one of them, the fed will cut it because we have to. the economy is going to deteriorate faster than we expected. the other narrative, is that they will do what they can. they had definitively been done racing. this inflation will take care of itself. i think the truth is somewhere in the middle. i think it is a delayed cycle. the early parts of the cycle is that the raise rates are going to have good credit growth availabilities. we haven't really seen step two of that yet. we have traditional sources of landing. they had a welcome private credit that stepped in from nontraditional lenders. we didn't see businesses stop spending. this is why the unemployment rate remains so stubborn. they are cash rich. we didn't see the consumers

stop spending. i think this will be somewhere in between. they are probably not done yet. they will have a negative catalyst. we are going to see them there again around most things that we saw working in 2023. this is around those things those have those strong, secular tailwinds. they are giving us relative earnings growth, and potential positive actions. >> if they are not done, a lot of people are in for a surprise. not much time to prove. we will see how it goes. thank you so much. we will see you again in the markets. we are getting some news out of cbs. we have more for that. cbs continues to restructure. they are ooking to close some of the cvs pharmacies in target locations. this is a call back in 2015. cbs bought out targets furnace -- from operations.

the company says that the pharmacy closes will begin in february. completed by the end of april. impacted employees will offer comparable roles within the company. we have also reached out to target, which has eclined to comment. they are saying select locations are according to wall street journal articles. they have said that maybe dozens are here. it is not the majority of them. target themselves are closing certain stores. there may be some overlap with that. nonetheless, you can see all of these pharmacies trying to get their footprint going, as we get that focus more on services. >> thank you so much. we are sending it over for some of the biggest names moving into the close. >> thanks. pressure is going to mount over last week's door blowout. this is on the alaska airlines at 737 max 9 plane. trying to see whether they failed to figure out failsafe

operations. it is going to complain -- comply with operations. they are down 10% so far. they are manufacturing the spirit arrow systems. this is around 12% this week. they also supply parts to boeing rivals, including airbus. closely monitoring and learning from the investigation. i would like to point out that airbus had an all-time high and -- time high in european trading. it shattered orders 30% from the prior setback back in 2014. different situation for airbus, versus boeing. >> christina, thank you so much. just getting started. up next, they are back. what they are forecasting for your head, and what global markets they are steering clear of right now. live from the new york stock

exchange. you are watching closing bell, on cnbc.

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stocks are back in the red. hovering close to the flatline. we are looking towards the close. investors are continuing to digest this. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> to the headline, this is a recent series of questions. does that change anything about the overall inflation trend? is there anything they expect to do about it? how much does that mean from a

break style dynamic? >> this is what cpi does from here on out. we don't expect the path going forward on cpi to be a very even one. this is the fed's 2% target. look at the last three months trend. realize that on headline, that is below 2%. this is just above 3%. we are still getting to the point where the fed is still seriously considering all of it. this is when, not if. slightly hotter jobs and slightly higher cpi. we had record using financial conditions in november and december. >> we have moments in january of last year, where the future markets of the fed was going to be cutting money by the end of 2023. it didn't happen. the question is, as we look at

the bond market is implying the forecast from the fronts, this was at the end of this year. we are connecting back to the economy, earnings, and stock markets are looking at. >> perhaps they meet somewhere in the middle. this was in december. we weren't really expecting them. they were trying to calibrate that absence of the data. this is difficult. you are starting to see the market. this is less of a chance of a rate hike or rate cut. at this point, you still have some convergence to reach between the two read i don't worry about it too much. this is the volatility and guilt that we have had over the last couple of days.

we were trying to figure out what they were doing. >> we have different hazards around the world. the japanese stock market is flying. maybe 30+ year range. they're getting excited about that. specific things are happening in japan. china, has not been able to get out of its own way. what is the investor looking to allocate? >> they had diverted their attention to areas like india. they're going to affect us. they are looking at headlines around china. they had some really positive features. they had industrial policy

investments. long-term workforce trends. we have pretty good returns on equity. this is a pretty good avenue for that. some people feel like japan has run a long way. look at evaluations over the long run. they are pretty cheap. there is a lot left when you think about the balance sheets in japan. they were looking at the profit margins. we are still in the early innings when it comes to the corporate reform. >> earnings feel optimistic when we have double digit earnings growth's. this is more reasonable. this is pretty stable. we have the other wage pressures behind us.

some of them don't need to exercise as much. we have a little bit of a question mark. we are going to look at these revenues. it causes them to be more judicious. this is not ifferent. >> we have these positive yields. >> thank you. up next, breaking on the banks. we are looking at this report from tomorrow morning. this is what he is expecting those numbers have to take grade closing bell, will be right back.

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shares are falling today after a covenant is looking to push the bank a quarter of these results from tomorrow morning. this is currently in argentina. the next guest, is looking at

the statement. this is a welcome one. this is what we heard. this is going to reflect the remaking of the bank. we have greater transparency about the business. >> with out they had a $2 billion chart when they reported tomorrow. we thought it would be $2 billion less. i get it. we have non-cash charges. we are reserving it. some of it is taking extra charges for restructuring that could go further than people expect. this is the first page. 8k was released last night. this is a business for the first time ever in that

history. because of this, this is the biggest historical data in history. services, banking, markets, consumer, and wealth. they are finally measuring this in a way that they are going to manage. this is going to lead to better results. i just told you that services, banking, and markets, as part of this group. looking to sell more products. these markets are deep. i'm saying this will work. most of us don't think it is different. the job for ceo is going to be here tomorrow. it is truly more simple. they have regained some lost credibility from the last five

or 10 years. i would even throw in 100 years. >> you mentioned the other details. they are returning from each of those businesses. interesting conclusions. service businesses are going to represent a massive percentage of the current public value. >> we are looking at other services. this is almost for free. these services are having 13% capital. almost 25% of revenues. 50% of deposits. that truly is a crown jewel that is going to be different from what we have appreciated before. that is new in the disclosure. we are getting all sorts of metrics. that is how we are running the business. we are opening it up to all of those investors, and everyone

else. >> what are you expecting in terms of larger banks? what about the market activity that is unknown going into the season? how are they valued after this rally going forward? >> pull the lens back a little bit. still looking for the third year in a row of negative earning. you are playing it for later this year. 2025, we are looking at the hockey stick sort of reflection. we don't expect positive earnings until the fourth quarter. we have headwinds from the rate environment. that is going to hit the bank. the question is, how much? with the capital markets, i don't know how much the markets are going to grow. we were looking at the ceo of jeffries. he said the sun will come out. he didn't say, exactly, tomorrow, but maybe i am too conservative with my

assumptions. you have these backlogs. they said to us earlier, the backlogs now seem more like it to be executed, iven the demand for equity and dry powder. strategic buyers are doing well. we want to capitalize strategic partners that are not doing as well. they are leveraging the financial markets. you can see with the banks are saying about capital markets. the last year or two, they said great back logs. >> they are midsized. they have different sized investment banks. they have good windows on them. >> this is a window that we got before the day reported he did the reported earlier this week. i would say that it is a tough revenue year. a lot is coming down to costs. the guy is right here. they were doing this with technology and ai., the return on innovation. what kind of return are you getting? >> we will catch up with you

after you report the numbers. tomorrow, don't miss mark mason after that company reports results. right here on closing bell at 3:00 p.m. eastern time. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers as we head into a close. >> rental car companies, dumping electric vehicles for gas powered cars. we are expanding why that is having an impact on tesla. we have other breaking details and news after the short break.

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just about 17 minutes until the closing bell. >> we actually have some breaking news. we are looking at them competing to buy the company, with enough money in the next few weeks or so. this is around $12 million. they are inching closer to 10 right now. this is just in the last hour. tesla, stopping most of its production near berlin for january 9th until february 11th because of supply issues brought about by the conflict in the red sea. tesla increased the pay of u.s.

factory murders -- workers that were hitting margins. it they offered 20,000 electric vehicles, such as tesla, from the fleet. opting for gas powered cars. gas instead. they say this is because of weak customer demand for electric vehicles. it is becoming too expensive to repair them. they raise depreciation costs. q4 2023 results, sure that he began offloading about 20,000 last month. the offloading should help improve the cash flow and earnings this year, and next. they are down 4% at the moment. >> thank you so much. >> private equity love softwares, i looking at it. >> that is true. >> they have plenty of ammo. coming up, coming down on today's megadeal. we will have the details on

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12 minutes until the closing bell. this is the media space. >> the stock is shooting higher. this is 5% earlier today on news that is supportive to your jump. we have monthly active users. this is up from 15 million announced just under three months ago. we have high user engagements from those ads supported. there were plummeting on

downgrades from the atlantic equities. paramount shares that they are down 5.5%. this is the most down cited media space in paramount. warner bros., discover that they were down to neutral. warner bros. discovery, got a note yesterday from bank of america. reiterating a buy rating on the stock. noting that the company is managing through a challenging environment. i just want to take a quick look at disney. shares are up to after yesterday evening. they announced new ad tools, including video ads. >> thank you so much. up next, getting the green light. getting big coin the go ahead. we have the biggest news on this first day of trade. don't miss this ceo, coming up on overtime. at 4:00 p.m. eastern time. closing bell, will be right back.

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or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley. we are now in the closing bell marches on. they are back with us to break down crucial moments. looking at the first day of trading on the spot. this is on a megadeal in the natural gas space. back to even. one marked loss. small caps banks, what do you think it means heading into these earnings tomorrow? >> that is the interesting thing. i don't want to create more excitement than it really is. i'm looking at the quarterly

earnings report from the financial sector. it had more of an opportunity to study what has been so far this year a disappointing start. this was from the dispersion trade. financials could really study the ship tomorrow morning. >> to your point, this was around 1% again. we will see how that goes. we are getting to this big coin. we made it through. >> yes we did. earlier, they had that highest level in two years. this momentum was up slightly now. we had lost some of the hype. some of the largest have been double digits today. this is the next one to get the other etf grayscale today. this is by far the biggest at the launch since converted from an and sexting fund. charging about six times with the next highest fee is out there. this is what they said about it

earlier. >> investors should have choice. they're coming to market in a very differentiated way. it is going to be as of this morning, the second largest stock commodity in the world. $28 of management assets. size, liquidity, track record. >> what are you going to find today? >> they would not be available on that platform. we have no plans for other products. they do not align with the offer focus. we have asset classes. we are using the building blocks of a well-balanced, long- term investment. >> thank you. the vanguard underscores the fact that you do not have universal buy-in. this is a real asset. this is the only money. you have deep skepticism.

you have people in the middle. the existence of a spot, does it change your conclusion about whether to allocate towards it or not? >> we will understand if they are able to traditional eyes themselves. really, this is going to be the institutional and investment community. that is what has been missing so far from the participation. headphones overall, in the coming days, it is going to get interesting. this is a shiny toy. you have options on etf. in the near-term, this was 6.5% higher this morning. this was 6% down. that's the real battle ground. >> the degree which you look at it, is the dominating vehicle.

you might think that it is going to lose some of this reason. >> i don't know how good that is for coin base. >> we are going to get more on this. this is a pretty big natural gas industry. >> this is more than a decade. this will become the largest u.s. gas producer. overtaking it. they said it was a winning deal. this was in part because it spans acreage in the western louisiana and eastern texas actions. this is important thanks to proximity from these other terminals. these overseas markets, have been seen as driving future demand growths. that has been on a tear so far this year. jumping more than 20%. the u.s. is looking for frigid temperatures. we are coming off of a very low

base after a warm fall. this cut demand. it leading to a jump in storage levels. this was the next contract out. this was the $2.50 range. this is still a spot market phenomenon. >> this is what the men others are doing. >> in terms of industry dynamics, we are seeing another upwelling for energy in general. this is opportunistic. we are going to get some scale when prices are against us. >> this is the usage of capital. they are going out and buying the production. this is the fourth deal in the last four months, where you have $130 billion worth of deals. i think that activity is going to clear up. not sure that that is the incentive. the response has been muted so

far. >> what is the reason to invest in equity? >> higher prices in particular for natural grasp -- gas. a lot of people are thinking about natural gas. 2022, has $10. four dollars by the end of 2022. we enter at that level. here you are. don't fall asleep on the potential that you could have. this is a cold-weather snap that really drives the price of natural gas higher. this shakes out a lot of the positioning. >> what about this outside? >> absolutely puzzling. good luck trying to figure it out. energy equities or higher. oil prices go higher. it is completely confusing. >> it certainly helps on the inflation side of things. looking at this conversation. thank you very much. 30 seconds left until the close. just around the flatline.

around 1% in the morning. hotter than expected cpi. pushing back against rate cut expectations. that is the final. this is all off of that. that problem was down three quarters of a percent. just under 2.5. we are going to get to overtime. >> tug-of-war between the bulls and the bears today. major averages finishing essentially flat. they had fresh highs. that is really denying it. that is the scorecard on wall street. the action is just getting started. looking to closing time. >> an excellent comeback. inflation increased from last month. looking at a broad market. coming up! silly, we have other companies. weav