profit forecast after gettin knocked out of the champions league and the group stage, no even making the knockout round transparency i sports >> as a giants fan, my heart bleeds for the cowboys and the eagles >> as a niners fan, i'm watching the playoffs >> thanks for watching power lunch. all right, guys, closing bell starts right now. guys, thank you so much fo watching closing bell, i'm scott wapner live from the new yor stock exchange this make or break hour will begin with the rates, the feds and your money on that note, new york fed president john williams speaking right now. about to any way. you can see the room that's where he's going to be. our stev liesman will bring you the headlines as well. they are definitely impacting the marketed to. let's take a look at your scor card with 60 minutes to go i regulation strong retail sales report thi morning sent yields climbing and immediately put pressure o stocks today the ten-year note yield rising

to 4.11. take a look at it there, jus below that now, 4.10 well growth in tech is obviously the places most impacted by that today. nasdaq is one of the worst i the majors led lower by apple, tesla, and microsoft. you can see them all there look at tesla down 2.3%. not much better for goldman an cater pillar today take a look at both of those stocks, giving some bag an that's a drag. takes us to the talk of th tape whether investments have gotte too bullish. let's ask josh brown he's wealth management ceo and a cnbc contributor he's with me here at post nine it's good to see you welcome back you think that's the case? we got all build bulled up because of the way we ended 2023, hey thi might be smooth sailing, but not so much? >> let me ask you a question with a question. do you think the market goes u because people get bulled up >> move the ladder >> why wouldn't investors be

bulled up? did you see the way the market ended last year? it literally ended like th 4th of july. it was picnics watermelon and fireworks it was just smashed almost t zero everything went up and of course people got bulle up, which is quite all right i would think there is something wrong if we had s&p finish the year up 25%, nasdaq up 50%, an nobody was bullish that would be problematic. >> yes, it is one thing to get all bulled up on july 4 an another thing to be bulled up in march because you're waiting for the fireworks that might not g off yet. it is what jamie dimon was talking about. so i want you to listen to wha he said about this idea an maybe that is too much listen >> i think it's a mistake to

assume everything is hunky-dory when the stock market is up, it's like a drug we feel, it's all great. remember we had so much fiscal monetary stimulation i'm more on the questionable side that we're facing a lot o things in '04 and '25. >> maybe we're coming to grips and inflation is not going to be straight down. growth will be lumpy >> i actually prefer my risk manager to speak the way that he does i would be terrified if he went on the air saying gun blazing, let's have anothe breakout year like we had last year that's not what he's suppose t be doing it's the head of the largest deposit institution of the united states. it's a bullet proof bank it should be a bullet proo bank it's because jamie dimon is risk manager first and foremost that's his job i'm glad he's speaking tha way. i hope most people are that being said, what we'r experiencing right now i exactly what you should expect after a rally as blisteringly as

hot. and a couple of things tha we're working at first is the correlation between the ten year is at it highes levels since 2018 back when th scariest thing in our lives wa the trade war. that was fun any way the low point of thi correlation was actually march of 2020 when it became apparen rates were going really low an not moving for a long time now we're back at a high o almost the six-year high in that correlation. all that's telling us is tha markets are getting shakier, but for the right reason if you're seeing that ten-year note yield climb, it's telling you that we're further away from the fed, looking to take polic down stocks don't love that and tha is perfectly fine. if we were selling off for any reason, that we will be singin a different tune that's all that has changed an nothing else has changed we're back in an earning season, so far so good the banks all had great things to say we've got a lot further to go,

but we are not experiencing th sell off based on the risk t corporate profits. it could happen, but it's no the story right now. >> what about the idea that we might be too bulled up on th sentiment, that we might be to bulled up? >> that is curing itself the idea that we're looking past evaluation that's stretched well beyond the historical averag for all three of the majors. that's what they spotted yesterday, the so-called dea evaluation said and the s& overvalued in his mind by 9% t 10%? >> that has nothing to do with what's going on this year an here is my proof the worst performing set there small caps, the lowest evaluation and that is not what the issue is small caps are now down 6% o the year they finish the fourth quarter with the 14% rally almost all of it happened in the last six years of the year it's a little bit of a giv back i want to go back to s&p though,

this is important. and the climb of 44% in the s&p, which means on the up days almost half of all stocks ar rising that's pretty good for the end of last year, it's 56%. that's pretty hot. member too hot so to your point, there was lot of sentiment froth, people were bulled up they all came up at the end of the year and they got excited. we get a little bit back it's perfectly normal. it doesn't mean it's at th opposite >> maybe we're giving a little bit back of our expectation as well as what the feds are goin to do. our cnbc economic corresponden steve liesman joins us on that note we did see the expectations of a march cut come down. and now, of course, we'r waiting on williams to make hi remarks. we'll have to see what he says >> yeah. i'm not expecting williams her to make a particular remark on monitoring the side not seeing anything at this time.

but i really lik the way josh has approache this it is very calm, it is ver cool, it is very collected and i thin that's where the market is right now. scott, i want to just begi talking about the change i expectations for the march rat cut. before powel spoke in december, we were around 45, 46% probability of rate cut we went all th way up that number there in the middl was probably higher, but just as an example thi morning. now we're back down to where w were so a lot of the frost and some of that frost obvious he, scott, propelled that market. it has come out. and also now take a look at th january 2025 outlook for the total rate cuts this year. again, we were very optimistic we got a little bit more optimistic now we're back to where we were but yeah, that has come out of the market this morning.

i'm thinking, scott, if yo think march, the market thinks march, i'm more in the may cam right now. >> it's interesting. let's bring in lauren goodwi here as well, chief economist, and market strategist. is that what you think and steve, stay with us too. is that what you think has gon on here? there's been a little too much hey, it's all hunky dory a dimon said or to our gang ou there today. it's hard for me to see th market's view of seven cuts, you know, this year. i do think there is a reasonable possibility of some, but it' really going to be dependent o what the data said, but seven? >> yeah, i think that's abou right. if the fed is right and they are able to engineer a soft landing, then three is probably about right. if the recession camp, which i happen to be in is right, then you're probably going to see more than seven as the feds tr to catch up with slowing growth what the market has been grappling with though since th december meeting is the feds spent two years talking abou inflation, inflation, inflation, data, data, data now we're looking at data that

if anything, is firming a little bit, and we're talking about cutting, right the paradigm has changed i think that's appropriate but it means the amount of information that the fed i taking in is a little bit less straightforward for investors. that's why we're seeing th changes in expectations than we've seen in the past few weeks. >> steve, it does raise th issue of what could be a growing issue for the fed of you see the strong retail report, you know rates move up. you're like well, the economy is still pretty strong. but then some of the other dat has been a little squirrely. so do you really believe the strong data? what is the fed really believing? do they have a risk of overstaying their welcome with policy where it is now and not cutting now because they think the economy is stronger than i actually is? >> reporter: you've done a goo job of building it i can't see my way out of it scott. but i'll tell you what i think the fed is going to do let me start by showing you. i'm sorry if i don't have that

chart available. but take a look at the fear of the twin peaks, scott. we talked about this let's go back to the 70s look at the twin peaks inflation was high, it fell, fed cut rates, and then inflatio came back. we have one peak right now where they do not want that second peak to happen, so it move had slowly i think the way out of the conundrum is as follows. a cut in may assuming the data is there for that rate cut which is, you know, continue declines in inflation down towards a low level, dow towards the 2% target. and then i think powel will pull that old every other meeting trick out of his bag right there. he goes slowly in terms of cutting rates. the advantage of this is you get your second cut in july, which is i think far enough before the election for people to say, yo know, avoid that possibl accusation that maybe th election is influencing them then the third cut will come

after the election, a day afte the election and the fed could take an option on the fourth cut if indeed th economy needs it so this would be a measure approach, cut, let's see how the economy reacts let's see how the economy reacts giving it an extra meeting i between. and i think the market would be fine with that. we do have to have a discussio about where ultimately the fed is going and if growth is going to remain strong inflation is a bit above target, you can have an elevated fun rate for quite some time, but it doesn't have to be this elevated the way it is right now. >> all right, that sounds good with that timeline, that makes sense to me. steve, thank you and if williams does say anything earth shattering, you know where to find us. that's steve liesman, our senior economics correspondent. do you care -- do you care how many times the fed might cut this year? i mean the market, what' interesting to me is as rate have ticked up and the

expectations of march have com down, there has been a fligh back to quality. russell is dow 6% to start the year it is way worse than the three other areas. mega caps have found som stability when everyone wa talking about broadening right? >> yeah, i can't think of single economic sector, 11 sector spiders i can't think of a single on other than property owners, th real estate sector i can't think of one other are in the economy where anyone is saying what we really need is to start cutting interest rates nobody is asking for it, it' not a problem. we don't have massive defaults anywhere even in energy, they seem to b active responsibly this is just not a situation where if we get free rate cuts it's devastating if we get five, everyone wil want to buy stocks it's just not where we are we do not have the same level of sensitivity to short-term rate in the s&p 500 earnings quil that maybe we have had in th

70s or in the 80s. it is just the different market >> if it will be more uncertai though, is that why you're seeing a flight back t quality? >> i think it is as simple a you've got retail spending jus going absolutely bonkers still and again, this will get back to what i was sayin earlier. we thought the consumer would be much more sensitive to a highe short-term rates than they actually ended up being. they are just not. they aren't. especially at the high end where their bank accounts are no oozing with yields people are spending like there is no tomorrow we are in the 12th month o this so it is really hard for me to envision a scenario where all of a sudden rate cuts are like th things that's great for stocks what's great for stocks are th following two things lauren might disagree, but right now, this is my premise the two things that matter most, falling inflation, check rising corporate profits, check if either of those two things are in peril, then i'll change my mind and

that is the current state of affairs. talk me out of it. i agree when it comes to the economic market. like we're talking about a little bit on the side of zero right? everybody expects economic growth to slow, inflation to come down. it's just a matter of degree, so i'm with you on there. that's a reasonable story fo stocks >> i like her already. >> unless, unless we can't kee up with this 12% earnings growth expectation. earnings growth was flat las year i don't know how we're going t see economic growth slowing an earnings growth accelerating but more importantly what we'r seeing right now in the privat markets is revenues are starting to come lower and companies ar complaining. they are screaming about how high their cost of capital is. so while we're expecting the milder session, i actually think

that's a more optimistic scenario for capital markets than many others could b because i think you'll get tha really, you know, gnarly profi eater regulated in a way that it will be important. >> i love that you went there. we have not seen any actio whatsoever in spreads. when will we see those conditions that you're describing in the private market manifest themselves in the public markets when do you think that alarm might start going off? >> well, the direct answer t your question is it starts to go off when we see signs of earnings decline or unemployment claims rising. >> no signs in sight >> no signs in sight but i will say though, hig yield credit in the public markets, it's one of the highest conviction calls it was last year and it is thi year for the exact reason you'r lining up. unlike the other areas of th market high yield issuers got a prett big boost from fed program during the pandemic. their capita stock looks really good. we've seen it move up in quality over the past couple, but really

over the past 15 years even in the case of th recession as we would see them i don't think that we will see them rise to any extent like we've seen because we're not going to have a financia crisis but of course, as economic growth slows, you could see some widening pressures >> you think they coul withstand the recession withou crisis we can do that, right? >> yeah. >> but that doesn't mean you have neutral impacts that's the mos critical point >> yes >> can it? maybe. i don't know if it is as definitive as yes or no, maybe but do you think thi market is priced for a recession? no, of course not. >> certainly not >> it's certainly not priced for earnings to go back in the can right? we're priced for reacceleration >> here is the question then what is the risk to earnings 12% might not be obtainable.

we start out with high expectations, stocks wil struggle in the spring the expectations got too low and we started to exceed again the bears hate that, it happen all the time isn't that a possible scenario here things like ai, is that th reason why we could do 10% earnings, 12%, even as unlikel as it seems now? >> yeah, but isn't that a bit of what we saw last year? >> yes >> when i look at the profit for companies, the way the federal rate hikes work, they impact manufacturing, housing services, and only then do the start to impact profits, right >> sure. >> so we haven't had a rea sticky problem yet isn't surprising but these things tend to compound on themselves so if i saw some of thos leading economic indicator start to perk back up, so i sa bank lending standards loosen. i saw pmis start to move above 50, then i would get off the

horse i've been on for two years saying i still think this thin will slow and say they did it, they figured it out. >> they threaded the needle. >> they threaded the needle, but we haven't seen those leadin economic indicators yet. and so the way the economi dominoes typically fall, i expect that it is still to come >> do we think that josh, th move, the broadening move of the market from the end of october to the end of the year was anything more than just positioning race till the end of the year to just try to ge something out of what wa nothing? or was it actually built on some substantive thing that had a lot of people viewing the market this year as that was the star of this broadening, now we'r giving back? >> yeah, unfortunately i don't think it was built on anything substantive. it was as simple as we had the positioning. i don't care how you want to slice it if you want to look a investor surveys you want to look at how much money when it's the money market

funds. you want to look at strategist and the way they do and quantify that in any, in any view, we just had record bearishness, people o the sidelines out of the way then they just had to catc this they had no choice if you do this for a living, your portfolio manager, i know on paper, you like to say you're making fundamental decisions about your investments i just know it's not tru because i've been here for 2 years. people are making career savin moves in november and december and so what are they going to do? chasing nvidia that' up 180%? of course not. and justify whatever researc you want to present to the committee. those stocks move when you buy them and you can pick up the extra percentage points, and i happens all the time it's not a figment of my imagination. and the way that you know it's true, look at how quickly that whole thing will unravel do you know that the russell 2000 right now i only 1% above their 50-day moving average

we would have a 14% q4 rally i the russell for a 17% tota return in the year endin december >> which is why i will ask you lauren are we back to a go big or g home market? stay with the biggest. >> we are taking a balance approach as boring as it sound and because one thing, we agre on a lot actually. even though we have a less constructive view on the economy, we are unlikely to se the market fall off the ledg until the recession comes an it's not here, right so when it comes to the big tech names, it's an important part of a diversified portfolio in a world where what they ar providing in the structura economic sense, powering ai, there aren't a lot o competitors. but i do think there is an opportunity to take some of th games that we've seen in the run up at the end of last year t

apply them to small and mid ca growth where the application layer of ai is being built out high yield as we talked about, infrastructure, and th infrastructure things. >> and what role, if any, do they play in that decision and now remember before si months ago, it was like okay look if we have to go into recession, we will go into a inflation. and now they're playing in a way they wouldn't expect it would as nearly as fast as they did and growth would remain strong so the whole thing has changed to let's not kill. >> and the fed was trying to cause a recession last year. >> well now they're not. >> and they could not fight. now they're trying to keep i from happening that's the whole changeup an the greatest pivot >> maybe, maybe they are o maybe they, look, i don't thin that they would have these god-like powers, and that they might have to bring about recession in order to achiev our policy objectives. they just couldn't fight the

earnings growth coming fro chatgpt. it's extraordinary, but they could not get that down. and now the home prices bounced for the consumer, which is 70% of the economy an if the value of their home i going up if their bank account is gushing with yield and if their stocks are 30 higher, they are going to spen money in their store and it i incredible and that is what they are trying to do last yea and most same people, lauren myself included, they would no bet against them bringing abou that recession, yet they couldn't and now you're telling me they definitely made this 180 i don't know i'm not so convinced >> guys, that was so fun thank you very much. we'll see both o you soon let's send it to pippa stevens for a look at th biggest names that are moving. >> hey scott, instacart shares are jumping as they had firm rating. it's attractive and there ar

many levers to improve monotiization and grow instacart could be a merge target for uber. under pressure after earnings the company posting an 8 year-over-year increase in revenue, although key bank notifying core funds fro operation guidance was slightl below consensus. those shares down about 3% be sure to catch an exclusiv interview with the chairman an ceo of prologes coming up on overtime >> thank you, pippa. up next the case for caution. morgan stanley's chris toomey is back with his playbook investment this year what he's forecasting for th fed, stocks, your money, the whole thing, he's here jus after this break 'rli at the new york stock exchange closing bell is coming right back hey, is this thing hard to learn? nah, it's easy. huh. you know, i think i'm going to ride it home. good thing you chose u.s. bank to manage and grow your money.

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all right, welcome back. we're under pressure today the major averages are after a strong retail sales report sen yields up. that questioned the market's rate cut expectations. our next guest could see mor short side down ahead. chris toomey runs one of the highest wealth advisory teams in the country, joining me here a post 9 welcome back >> thanks for having me. >> you still don't like th market >> i'm still cautious around the market >> why, toomey [ laughter ] >> what's going on here? >> i want to be involved >> what prevents you from bein one? a lot of people have turned. >> a lot of the things w thought was going to happen last year happened, right they were predicting a lot o good things to happen. inflation came down, we didn't go through an economic recession. we had an earnings recession but if you look at earnings, earnings were actually negativ for last year, right so 2.19 in 2022.

markets pronounced 2.19, we're expecting 2.15, right in the middle of this financials, big expectations not a really great response. so earning weren't great. we didn't get the rate cuts that we were expecting. you look at the market >> you weren't expecting rat cuts last year >> we were totally expecting rate cuts last year, then we got two rate hikes that's my point. when we were talking last year said if we get rate cuts, it's probably because there i something wrong with the economy. we are going into a recession or we have a problem with all o this debt outstanding that's going to have to be refinanced now we were able to thread the needle by having the economy continue to do reasonably well but earnings were actually negative last year >> sure, but interest rates have come down so much from the peak inflation has come down a to since the peak fed seems to be done with th hiking you've gone through the earnings recession. you know how the markets are you've done this as long a

anybody. look ahead >> we are looking ahead. we're in a situation where they are not in that short term and the long term they're pretty good evaluations don't look prett good earnings, expectations, 10%, 12%, we think that's probabl high we think margins are probabl going to have to start contractin liquidity, the great equalizer last year, caused by the banking crisis and all the activity that we put in to stabilize that. all that stuff will start to roll off in march, right you're in a situation wher earnings, they are not looking great, valuations aren't great and liquidity is being pulle out of the system. caution is probably the righ word >> until when? >> i think until you start t see a revaluation with regards to the market. i think you're right the fact the fed is not talkin about raising rates is a goo thing. but the fact the market' pricing six rate cuts is a

problem. >> sure. but i think that we could agre that six rate cuts will seem a little bit adventurous over ou things, right? >> right >> the fact of the matter is they're going to cut and the regime has changed from hikes to no cuts in the past, when the feds, your friend, equity markets will do well >> that's correct. it's correct except for the fact that we've had zero interest rate policie for about ten years. so you're right. rates have gone from 5% down closer to 4%, but we're in a situation where you've got a number of businesses that have been underwritten at a zero risk rate that are now refinancin debt so we would talk about this last year, up to 2025, $5 trillio worth of debt will have to b refinanced, right? $120 billion, particularly i commercial real estate this year alone, right and one of the things that drove the markets downgoing into

october was shooting up with concern about the amount of th fact that all of this debt i going to have on the u.s deficit, right and so that is not going away, right? and so the concern that i woul have in that market is specifically around the fact that you could see a crowdin out affect when all this reissuance and they start coming into the market, pushing yield even higher because we reall see is that as a thing that' driving the market i mean josh hit on that as wel in regards to volatility correlating in regards to th tenure but the good thing we could se if we see stabilization within rates, you've got a lot of dry powder sitting out on th sidelines. >> yeah. >> you start start seeing some >> aren't we seeing th so-called green chutes of that rates have stabilized. >> well they were stabilized but they're starting to shoot up again because of the concern with everyone expecting this rate cut in martha is now no

necessarily looking as rosy. to your point, i think if yo look at fourth quarter, so muc of that performance was chasing, right? >> for sure. >> chasing, chasing, chasing now people are like wait, do i want to own this thing at this level? if rates are starting to g higher, you'll get a lot o selling in this market >> what is your best thing a client calls you up and says the market has been going up a lot. what are we doing? what had are you doing what's the best play >> i think the two areas that we really like. if you look at equities, w think it's probably going to b long term. there are other alternatives now that rates have gone higher. we still like private credit where you're at the top of the stack and you're collecting very aggressive things, 12%, right? then the other area that we're starting to se some opportunities within th lease with regardsto businesse that are going to have to star selling critical assets that w are getting long-term leases and getting another 8% but the one big issue fo

investors is the breakdown between the bottom market an the equity market, right it used to be when they were selling off bonds would do well we're in a situation where the are correlating again. >> historic rallies in both in november >> and now as bonds are sellin off, equities are selling off. where do you get tha diversification? so you really need to star looking at other alternatives in order to get tha diversification. >> you're telling me you don't like anything in that market >> we do we have positions in equitie that will be bifurcated. but to your point, you've seen this rallying quality very aggressively, right? i think companies that are doing well, they are going to continue to be rewarded your point in regards to russell 2000 being cheap, it's cheap for a reason a lot of these sectors are cheap for a reason because they ar not growing their leverage >> that's the case i make on the half time report today yes, of course, it's cheaper but it's cheap for a reason, right? and these asset classes, the are going to have a real problem when they have to star

refinancing a lot of this debt from our standpoint, you reall need to be very specific wit where you are investing. i think there are some areas i small cap that will be particularly interesting i regards to mma, but i do think you want to hold on to quality right here >> when you turn bullish, wh are you going to tell first? >> i will tell my clients, and then i'll come on cnbc >> that's why you're one of th highest rated in what you do chris toomey on the spot answered it right. we'll see you soon >> thank you all right, up next, the show me moment is back. we'll find out where he sees the tech trade heading and the names 'she betting on after th break. closing bell will be right back

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let's create ai that begins with trust, with watsonx governance. ibm. let's create. welcome back, pulling back just a bit to start the year after that massive rally las year investors are looking ahead to the key earnings reports on wh is really delivering value growth, returns. with me to discuss, welcom back good to have you back.

that's what's going to come down to, right? and it was a rising tide lifte last year. >> yes >> now we'll see which ones ar good >> yes, who is wearing it when they are going out and who i delivering the real value and in that up market as we have talked about everything to the real estate last year, what is really going to happen and who is delivering the real value in 2024 >> you think it was too much hype or did you look at it and say no, it is justified. this is a transformative technology and that kind o guidance that people like an they gave out. it was just astonishing. >> it was too much across th board when people would say that they will lift all boats it will be great for everybody and for some people, but it' not going to be great fo everyone when you still need t put up the results this year, it will be a year when they are a big market >> you would look at any one o those max seven and say that's the one i've got my eye on thi

year for better or worse. i mean you see that there ha been some divergence between the performance, right that they seem to be under a little more scrutiny this year where it is everything that went up last year and that they hav run again this year and it's been remarkable. where they keep going up >> they have great fundamentals they were blowing through thei guidance people are still on the train. they haven't figured out what it will be for them and they feel they need to get as much as they can from nvidia. apple, they doubled last year. but the sales were down. now you're seein some troubles in china and som other things maybe that was a little bi overblown if you would look at their fundamentals how many more phones can the sell whereas someone lik microsoft, they are no integrating things like ac vision and they have a consume portfolio like the enterpris where they are dominating in large parts of the market an seeing a lot of growth, then they might seem to have greate earnings >> so i would imagine in the lens that you would look at th

tech world from, you know, private market evaluations tha they will have a massive correction, you know, public market evaluation in tech really didn't they expanded. and the way the public markets did last year that everybody i trying to have an ugly 2022. the way you're going to see it in the private market is largely because there is no shorting, no trading in and out who is really able to driv growth from the top line and the bottom line perspective. and to the cloud infrastructure >> are you being more discerning in which you would look at and what kind of willingness tha you would have to invest in ways that you were not, that th scrutiny wasn't quite that ridged over the last three years

ago? >> let's say three years ago they might not have been a ridged as they were moving s fast like everyone else, we would tighten our strike zone an double down. we are much more thoughtfu about what we were doing whether it delayed pricing o the types of people that the were getting the business with we were making the ten-yea investments, where we are no able to trade out of them if w decided to change our minds. these are deep commitments tha are long term. therefore we made a lot more stringent decisions, but that' been going on for a couple o years. now hopefully we'll see th benefits of it >> talking about some of the earnings the caps will suck all the oxygen out of their room, bu you have your eyes on th others i'm not sure if you have inves in all these companies, but yo were an early investor, so i don't know what the expectations are there. but the intelligence solutio and rover? >> yes, a bunch of different trends that we would say hey we're throwing them out of the bath water

a couple of those were thing that people said i don't want to invest in those stocks and the don't have support and they ar never going to make it but they proved although the went public, you know, that it is how you were born, it doesn't matter that they did a great jo and not only driving revenue but earnings and they continued to hi their numbers. because they're smaller capsizeand they will have a great long-term business, but they might have overlooked them because they were a pac and now the best investors are going back saying hey, the people, they will paint thes with too broad of a brush. >> how does the role of thes founders now change for cheaps that have been public? when now investors, they will be much more scrutiny ove profitability?

it is not just going to be great idea, we're going to bet we're all in, but it won't b that way anymore >> most of those people came out. >> yeah, they sold those stocks you're looking at people tha have performed those trick saying hey, i was able to ge money in maybe 1920 and 1921 where i was able to drive growth in market leadership and then as that goal post changed, i was able to drive the profitability. and now coming in to '24, thos are the best ceos who will say hey, i know both tricks. i'm able to run an efficient business, drive the top line and bottom line, why i have a market leading company with the important tail winds >> you've got to spend a littl bit and it is not what it wa where the cost is just there >> and recruiting an maintaining the employees, telling them what's going on

>> i appreciate it thank you very much. up next, tracking th biggest close. pippa stevens. >> two automaker names are stuck in neutral after wall street's downgrades we've got the details coming u next

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where they cut the stock t a hold the firm saying there could be a risk to rivian's gross marke expectation as well as questions as they have the model including timing of the needs, productio ramp, and the profitability. staying in the auto space of the red and following the downgrad to neutral the firm sai that the stock is fairly value and they will see more limited upside to the estimates for this year and next. scott? >> and i appreciate that ver much pippa stevens. shares of disney are dropping today down near 3%. there's the stock right there. we'll tell you whaist weighin on it and what could be at stake for that company coming up o closing bell our award-wining trading platforms. unlock support from the schwab trade desk,

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trading days kate rooney. mike, your thoughts on the day >> it could have been wors given the tone in the market we'll see if this is a rea lasting show of resilience above 1,400. but we do, i think, you can no say if we did get oh our skis in terms of getting too bull herb getting too aggressively positioned, assuming the sof landing was in the back. we have been basically payin for that for the last three to four weeks and so underneath the surface, we're coming to terms with thi idea so so far, still in raw teen pullback mode. we knew we needed it, checking back to mid-december levels. i still think 4,600 is the lin between the routine pullback and the s&p and something works. >> at 425, it's sort of your line >> yes, that's where i essentially goes and takes u back to the fed meeting in

december that's more or less the way we started things >> the latest chapter in the chronicles was released today. what is in there >> well, disney shares, they are down about 3% today. on their note out warnin that there is a whole lot of noise and very little light at the moment in disney and pointing to the us aring tha their proxy battle with nelson distracts management from th critical strategic decisions which could shape the company' narrative for years to come. mentioning the for sale proces and finding the new partner fo espn and outlining their cas for disney's board saying they have not presented the strategic idea and that their experience

was outdated we'll see how this all plays out. and because those results ar coming out in o.t., what do we expect >> and for discover, watch the in the back of november up fro 1.47% at the end of october. the charge off rates declined in the end of last year investors are looking to see i there is a peak, also watching for some commentary around the possible reinstatement o regular share buybacks in th sale of their student loan portfolio. and then compliance relate costs, that left abruptly mainly an investigation around certai car charges that were discovered as that could result i enforcement actions, there may also be some commentary around that leadership shakeup. michael rose is the new ceo an

president effective on or before march 1, scott >> all right, kate rooney, thank you. you heard the sound affect with about a minute left here. dow came off the lows. but the market to your point i just hanging in there, facing lot? >> yes, the question is whethe it is kind of for stalling something that you need, which is to pull that slingshot back a little bit more. even in nasdaq, you started to see some things look short term even though the big stocks have held up better. you still do have 85% of all volumes down to the new york stock exchange, so there is some selling. i mentioned the monthly future expiration is today. last month, december 20, it wa that 1.5% drop day that came out of nowhere in the middle of strong period as you do have some static that you'll have t deal with. but so far, it is not really causing a whole lot of pain. it is not looking like a chang yet. even though you've got plenty of people that are talking abou

it >> the markets are trying to decide economic good news. >> yes and how good it was becaus maybe the retail sales flatten >> yes, thank you. we'll see you tomorrow as well there's the bell we'll go out red off the low though that's the important thing all the major averages are lower, but not the lowes they've been all day the russell, the small cap fairing the worst. the small caps welcome to closing bel overtime, i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off today. strong retail sales data and rising treasury yields a doubl whammy for stocks, but we're closing well off the lows as i mentioned of the session and council economic chairma jared bernstein on whether the have expected economic data that could push back in the fed rat cuts and the white house's