and consumer spending reports. so all that being the case, going back to what we saw here in overtime, lots of guidance misses on stocks that have been bit up a lot but for different reasons. >> russell up 1%. >> yep. and of course, there's a lot more coming. the trump trial verdict just a few minutes. that's going to do it for us. >> "fast money" begins right now. we are starting with breaking news. you are looking live at the courthouse where we have word the jury has reached a verdict in former president donald trump's hush money criminal time. l megan? >> we're going to hear this in the next 15 to 20 meninutes or . a verdict against donald trump. he was charged be 34 felony counts and at issue here is the

hush money payments made in 2016 to the adult film actress, stormy daniels. so now trump repaid his former fixer and personal lawyer, michael cohen, in early 2017 and the prosecution argues that he disguised those payments as legal expenses. so at issue here is that he was falsifying business expenses. so it's 34 felony counts. we don't know yet the verdict. exactly what the punishment will be. but we do expect to hear that in about 15 to 20 minutes. again, the first criminal trial against the former president in u.s. history and likely the only one to come to trial before the election. >> we'll go back to you as soon as we get any information and news. thank you very much. we're going to start with stocks continuing to fall over this holiday shortened trading week. the dow dropping more than 300 points. the s&p down more than half a percent now on pace to break a

five-week win streak. the massive slide in salesforce rippling through the sector. microsoft, apple, amazon, even nvidia lower today, but now, investors are turning their attention to tomorrow. the pce report, a closely watched fed independent kart. earlier, i moderated a fire side chat with the new york federal reserve president, john williams. he said inflation is still too high but added he's confident it will start decelerating in the second half of the year. guy, we'll get to some of these afterhours movers in a minute including dell, but inflation and rates still the key drivers for stocks. i thought he was pretty dovish, actually. >> as did i. great interview. thanks for being here, it's great to have you. rates, ten-year yields came down seven bases points or so today on the back of probably the gdp. i'm one of the few people that still believe rates go higher

and i'm probably one of the few people that think inflation is still a problem and instead of decelerating, i think you're going to start to see this reacceleration. i think the vix is too low for that. i think the price action we've seen suggests maybe the market's not as optimistic. you've watched it as closely as anybody. what's going on in soft commodities, industrial, metals. i know energy takes front and center and everybody looks that the as the barometer, but what we're seeing in other commodities suggests you're going to start to see this reacceleration on top of which the wage growth out there that still makes the entire thing very, in my opinion, dicey for the federal reserve. >> interestingly, dan, the market didn't have that bad of a day. tech got hit. a lot of the software names got

hit. it was cyclical, defensives. financials rallied today. because it was a very bond friendly kind of day. >> it was. again, small caps. russell 2000 was up 1%. it was a weird day. like a split screen between the high growth names, longer duration. maybe that's speaking to what guy thinks maybe the market is pricing in higher for longer right here. i think it's interesting that the you know, yields came in because of that gdp expectation. so to me, you have this push and pull. it does kind of make the case for a stagflationary environment which you can say with an s&p trading 20 times above the ten-year and five-year average, 19 and 18 times respectively, that's just a little expensive. now you could also make the case that a 5. 5% fed funds rate versus 3.1 cpi, that's not particularly restrictive. you have a dollar that's come in and it's stayed even as yields have gone on the ten-year from

4.35 to 4.55. for those who say it's all about the fed or earnings, i think it's all about both. if we see slower growth, you're going to see pressure on enterprise spending. pressure on the consumer and we're getting mixed reads from the retailers, too. it's kind of clear as mud here, people. as far as i'm concerned. so then you've got to think about do we deserve to be at 5200 was the last time yields were at 5% and the ten-year, the s&p was at 42. >> you just threw out a dirty word for the fed. stagflation. they don't see it. this idea that you have persistently higher inflation in a weaker economy. first of all, we don't have a weaker economy. even though the gdp was weaker today. still 2% spending growth. on inflation, we've come a long way down. are you as worried about this stickyness? >> i'm not.

dan brought up the reussell. in order for it to rally, they need lower rates because the russell by and large are unprofitable companies. so i think that the market, we saw money come out of the russell recently into the s&p or into tech. i think that was significant because that was indicative of rates moving higher. if you think rates are moving lower, then you're goeing to moe money back into the russell. the broader economy, not those seven names. i think what you spoke to williams today, he's not really classified as a dove or hawk. he's neutral. very central. i think they're going to have to cut rates. everyone thinks they'll cut rates at the back end. they have to remain neutral. so the november meeting is two days after the election. so they're either going to cut in november, in december, and maybe they squeeze one in september.

i think there's going to be three cuts. not a little more than one cut. >> you think there are going to be three cuts. >> i think three quarter point basis counts for a total of 75 basis points this year. this year. i'm on the other side. >> market says one now, i think. >> there's a reason why the fed is always late to act and stop acting and everyone always says the fed has poor timing. so i think this one, they're going to try to do their best not to screw it up. if it feels like they should be cutting, they've waited too long. they have to cut before it feels right. >> all right. i think we do have some breaking news. we have the verdict on the trump case. straight to megan. >> former president trump has been found guilty in the hush money trial going on in new york. they are still reading the verdict but up to 22 charges out of 34. he has been found guilty on all of those first 22 charges. now, we don't know yet what the sentencing will look like. we know if he's found guilty of all 34 charges, it carries up to

34 years in prison. he doesn't have to go to prison. but that will be the maximum sentencing here. so as i said, they are still reading that verdict but on the first 22 charges out of 34, former president trump has been found guilty of falsifying his business records to cover up a seconds crime. >> how surprising is this given what you followed, a month's worth of testimony and two days of jury deliberations? >> absolutely. a six-week trial, nine and a half hours of jury deliberation after some 80 hours of witness testimony. there was a lot of speculation here that with such a high profile trial with so much witness testimony from stormy daniels, michael cohen, really major characters here, about what exactly was going to happen. i think a lot of folks who have watched donald trump over the past several years really felt he was teflon don as the nickname is, but nothing has ever stuck to him. and you know, that said, we don't know how far this will

follow donald trump. whether this will matter in november's election. we know he's sure to push back on this verdict, but we know he's been found guilty and that will come as a surprise to many people. >> he's a first time offender. no criminal record. a lot of firsts here. pretty historic. donald trump becoming the first former president ever to be convicted of a crime. that's what i was going to ask is how this reshapes and could reshape the election and his ability to campaign. >> i think i would say two things and they go opposite ways here. one is that he's going to use this as a way to go to his donors, his base, and say look at this witch hunt against me. this is the first trial against a former president in u.s. history. no one has had to go through what i've gone through. he could really rally support on that. on the flip side, i will say i think independents here, the polling has been clear the more donald trump is in the news, the more they have to hear about his

trials, his criminal history, about the things that have happened to him and around him that they just get tired of him. so we could see that while it could rally up support with those voters who are likely going to stick by him no matter what, i think what matters in this election is how the independents really react and that's where we could start to see some shift here. i think some folks might have said oh, he might have done this, but that's all a side show, but once he is found guilty on these 34 counts as he has now been, that could really start to shift the narrative for some folks who say well, we don't want to deal with that in the white house. we don't want four years of that. maybe it is voting for biden if they're on the fence. >> unclear whether president biden weighs in on this, but clearly could use this in the election to cast his opponent as unfit. stay close. richard joins us now with more on this verdict. again, former president trump

charged 34 counts. what's your reaction? are you surprised? >> i am not surprised by the guilty verdict. i thought that the largest probability was that there would be found guilty. i actually thought there would be a split verdict that there would be probably i thought there might be as many as 16 counts of not guilty with 18 counts of guilty. so a little surprised it was unanimous. but i'm not at all surprised that the verdict came in guilty. >> what happens now? how do we assess the prospect of what the punishment is here? and prospect of jail time. >> the first thing that happens is that the former president will have a probation interview. he'll be interviewed by the new york state probation department. that will collect background information, to give the judge a fuller picture of the defendant.

it may seem not necessary in this case, butit will be helpful. it will talk about his background. things that may not be quite public knowledge. that will go into the judge's determination as to guilt. as to sentencing. the judge will set a sentence in several weeks out and maybe as many as a couple of months. at that point, the judge will sentence him. he can sentence him from anything from probation to four years incarceration. the counts, whatever the sentence will be, if there's an incarceration, they'll be concurrent. he's not going to look at four years on each conviction. there will be a maximum four years. so it will run from zero probation to four years perhaps on alternate sentencing. but that remains to be seen. that's the parameters of the sentencing. >> looking at a live shot there of the manhattan court where a

jury, if you've just joined us, has found former president trump guilty on all 34 counts he faced at the hush money criminal trial. we're talking about what comes next and i guess my question is how this shapes what he is able to do in the election. if he's able to go out and campaign. if he's able to raise money. obviously it reshapes the arguments and is a stunning development, but legally, are there any ramifications for him in the election? >> at this point, no. at this point, the same restrictions that were imposed pretrial and during the trial will exist. so there will be nothing that will stop him from campaigning. nothing that will stop him from raising money for his campaign. he will be able to continue to do that. i'm certain that certainly within the two-month time frame that's allowed after the sentencing, his attorneys will file a notice of appeal.

but as far as any legal restriction on his campaigning, on his fund raising, there won't be any. >> little color from the courthouse that we can report. we have heard that donald trump sat stone faced when the jury delivered its deliberations and its report and that he was just looking down at the table. i guess one of the questions is will he appeal and what would be the chances of that working in his favor. >> i think there's, he's absolutely going to appeal. an appeal is a right and there's no reason for him not to appeal. there are some, there's a novel, a relatively novel use of the law in this case and that may be the main ground of appeal. in all honesty, most appeals fail. the likelihood of there being a reversal or the appellate court

vacating this conviction is probably pretty small. but it's not zero. i'm sure that the defense will appeal post, as soon as the judgment is finally entered and that will happen after the sentencing. >> nine and a half hours of deliberation does make you, it could have gone on a lot longer. this morning, they were reread some of the legal guidelines from the judge they had been read, including how to assess credibility of the witnesses and one of those questions was around michael cohen. i do wonder as you have been following this case, what you made of his testimony and how much you think that factored in here. >> well, i think that clearly, at this point now in hindsight, one of the things that the jury was interested in is was what are the instructions and how are we permitted or what are the standards for assessing cohen's credibility. i think that the prosecution did

a very good job of laying out a whole series of factors separate and apart from michael cohen. they laid out facts, documents, communications to basically tell the story in the absence of michael cohen. and they used michael cohen basically as a narrater. they were then able on summation to say look, this case is largely proved without michael cohen. just on the evidence that we have submitted. but where michael cohen testifies, don't believe him because he's michael cohen. believe him because there's other evidence that corroborates everything that he says or there's circumstantial evidence such that there's no other plausible explanation other than the one michael cohen is giving. apparently, the jury accepted that argument and was persuaded

that michael cohen was at least in this instance, telling the truth. >> thank you for joining us, rich richard, with instant reaction. please stay close. back to our reporter, megan. a little more color from the courtroom here as this verdict has been delivered and the former president is found guilty on all 34 counts in the hush money trial. >> absolutely, we just found out the judge has ruled that sentencing will be july 11th at 10:00 a.m. for former president trump. that's when we'll know a little bit more about what the final punishment will be, whether he will dgo to prison, face any prison time. again, the maximum sentence is up to four years in prison for these charges. that will be july 11th at 10:00 a.m. more color coming in from our nbc news colleagues inside. they're painting this picture of president trump sitting alone at the table, sitting stony face, not saying anything. his, one of his lawyers, todd

blanche, has been arguing for a motion of acquittal. so we know on your question of whether they will appeal, it looks quite likely they're going to be appealing this case, but for now, he's just sitting there. arms are crossed. lips are pursed and sitting alone at his table as they're debating the sentencing, when that would be. so we know that's july 11th and that's all we know at this point. >> completely unprecedented. thank you very much. let's bring in sarah fagen, former white house political director. the reactions are coming in from the trump side. according to a truth social post from donald trump jr., such bs. can't really say all of it. not sure there's any way to get a fair trial in new york, but we shall see. he says they'll be talking about it live at 6:00, but clearly, they're going to use this to their political advantage. how do you think the campaign is reacting right now? >> well, i don't think they're

terribly surprised. they have been basically forecasting this was going to be the case for months. and so you know, of course wanted to be acquitted and wanted this to go away, but they've been preparing for this to happen. they've said all along he would never get a fair trial in new york. i think they're talking points are exactly what you would expect them to be and the same talking points they've been saying for quite some time now. so i don't think they're surprised even if they're disappointed. >> we are starting to get reaction from lawmakers. mike johnson today, it's a shameful day in american history. president trump will rightfully appeal this absurd verdict and he will win. we are seeing former president trump leaving the courthouse now. let's see if we can listen. >> trial by a conflicted judge in this corruption, it's a rigged trial, a disgrace.

wouldn't give us a venue change. we were at 5% or 6% in this district, in this area. this was a rigged, disgraceful trial. the real verdict is going to be november 5th by the people. and they know what happened here and everybody knows what happened here. you have a d.a. and a whole thing, we didn't do a thing wrong. i'm a very innocent man. it's okay. i'm fighting for our country, our constitution. our whole country is being rigged right now. this was done by the biden administration. in order to wound, to hurt an opponent, a political opponent. and i think it's just a disgrace and we'll keep fighting. we'll fight until the end and we'll win because our country's gone to hell. we don't have the same country anymore. we have a divided mess.

we're a nation in decline, serious decline. millions and millions of people pouring into our country right now from prisons and from mental institutions, terrorists. and they're taking over our country. we have a country that's in big trouble. but this was a rigged decision right from day one with a conflicted judge who should have never been allowed to try this case. never. and we will fight for our constitution. this is long from over. thank you very much. >> do you believe in the rule of law? [ shouting ] >> the first reaction from former president donald trump after the jury read their conviction guilty on all 34 counts in that hush money trial. the former president calling it a rigged trial. called it a disgraceful trial.

said the real verdict is going to be on election day with the people. also went after the d.a., called him a soros backed d.a. said i'm an innocent man. pointed his finger, former president trump, at the biden administration. he says they orchestrated this. they did this to hurt a political opponent. and then he talked about immigration. back to m so of his talking points on the campaign. millions millions of people are pouring in and taking over our country. could this help him politically? could he win with this argument that this is a rigged election? a rigged trial that was done to damage him politically? >> it helps him with his base. there's no question in my mind this really energizes the donald trump supporters and makes them want to work harder for him. i think there's a very small slice of americans who are undecided at this point. as early as it is. and a conviction if you look at

all the polling, voters say that a conviction would impact their views of him and their support for him. but we haven't seen any evidence of that. yet. obviously. and i suspect we won't see much unless there is an actual jail sentence. we wouldn't expect to see a jail sentence given his record. his lack of a record. but if something dramatic happened like that, i think it would probably cut both ways. which is you would see you know, i think a very dramatic outpouring of support and you'd see some of those kind of independents or undecideds move away from him. z >> we're hearing from the republicans. here's steve scalise posting, corruption partisan. i won't stand by while the leader of our party is ambushed by our own government. will you stand with trump before

midnight tonight and condemn this witch hunt. megan, the fund raising e-mails are going out. >> they sure are. we just got one from president trump's campaign saying i'm a political prisoner saying he was just convicted in a rigged political witch hunt trial, quote, i did nothing wrong, in all caps. it goes on to say with your support at this moment in history, we will win back the white house and make america great again. combined with those remarks we just heard from the former president outside the courthouse where he was saying they're coming after me, we're so divided, our country has gone to hell, you're seeing the argument he's going to make on the campaign trail from here on out. you can see how this could resonate with some people. there were some voters who never wanted to see those trails take place. clearly, he's hoping they can get immediate pushback that he says in the e-mail must be so massive it will go down in history.

>> i know you've gotten other side there is, but i wonder what the deliberations are like right now inside the white house, inside biden campaign. should he say something? not say something? and how do they use this? how dothey react to it? >> so, i don't think there's any chance he's not going to say something. whether he does it you know, probably more prudent to do it on the campaign trail than as an official statement. there hasn't been sentencing yet. there's more to come. the trump campaign going to appeal this clearly. so i would expect him to say something and you know, he has to. how could the president not address it. it's an elephant in the room in this race. the former president trump though has done a very good job of counternarrative. and just listening to the last five minutes, his talking points are completely on brand. his campaign is organized.

his surrogates are out there. they were very prepared for this and they are all saying the same exact thing, which he's been saying for months. so it sounds to me this isn't going to have much of an impact other than to energize his base. i think it's in many ways, it's baked into the political spiking of where americans are. i mean, people are, he's been on this trial for a long time. he's got other cases. and he is ahead of joe biden in many polls. we'll see if that changes in the coming days. i would be surprised if it did. >> president biden had made some references to it. he made some jabs for instance at the white house correspondents dinner. i think said that the president trump was having stormy weather. things like that. but hasn't addressed it really in a full statement. you just mentioned not changing things on the campaign trail. i wonder if it impacts fund raising at all for former president trump.

the first u.s. president to be found guilty of a crime, does that, the big money, and we've been reporting some of these big hedge fund managers for instance, some of the big money backers like steve schwartzman who have warmed to trump again, is there a risk now of backing him after this guilty conviction? >> i don't think anybody on the right thinks this is a real or a fair situation. this is including people who aren't strong trump backers. you just sort of look at the facts, the overarching facts, the politics of new york city and you know, right or wrong, it's baked in that this is not a fair situation for the president. i don't think it's going to impact much on the right. it is going to energize the right. i would expect president trump the raise more money in the next 48 hours. after this.

i think it alsoprobably energizes the left. so the question is what happens to that small group of people in the middle and how do they react. i would pause it that you know, the visuals of a sentencing if he is cuffed or sent to jail, which seems unfathomable, that would probably have an impact. but right now, this is just more noise that frankly has been noise every day in the press for the last many months. >> sara, thank you for jumping on the phone line. let's continue the conversation. bring in former prosecutor, david henderson with us as this jury hands down a historic conviction in the hush money case. 34 counts guilty for former president trump. what happens on july 11th in the sentencing? walk us through that. >> well, typically what's going to happen is before we get to the sentencing, a judge will have some version of what's

called a presentencing investigation. that's what we call it here in texas. normally what he'll do is take a look at former president trump's criminal history. we know it from the news but they still go through the process. as i say that though, it's going to be more of a formality because i don't think there's a strong possibility he ends up serving jail time. some version of probation is what he'll be facing. >> why are you ruling out jail time? >>first time offenders for these types of sentences don't typically get jail time. in addition to that, you can't send former president trump to jail. and by that, i mean even if the judge were to sentence him, there's not a warden in the country who's going to say you know i can't keep this person safe in my facility. my instinct is that secret service would make arrangements for him to serve time. i think the judge would probably take that into consideration.

>> want to go back to, sorry to cut you off. we are getting news here from the biden campaign. back to megan. then back to you, david. what are they saying? >> we're hearing from the biden campaign that they're saying in new york today, no one is above the law. they're really celebrating this that trump has mistakenly believed he would never face consequences for breaking the law. they're saying this does not change the fact the american people still face a simple reality in terms of who they're choosing in november, but they're also saying the threat trump poses to our democracy has never been greater. again, they're taking this back to the choice voters have in november. they say a second trump term in wrapping up here means chaos, ripping away americans' freedoms and fomenting political violence. the american people they say will reject it in november. that's from the biden campaign. >> thank you very much. with us still is david henderson, former prosecutor,

civil rights attorney. 11 counts related to invoices. 12 to ledger entries. 11 counts related to checks. were you surprised after hearing from the witnesses over the past what six weeks or so that this is how it came down? >> it was impossible to predict what the outcome of this case was going to be. what was more surprising for me is how the defense handled its case. in terms of how they cross examined the witnesses. given what they had to work with, they got a last on a prosecution. when you considered that, the judgment is not a shock. it was very difficult to predict what the outcome was likely to be in this case. >> i just wonder what we make of this. this is where we are. a few months out into the election. does it put, i've asked this before. does it put any restrictions on him legally as far as running for president? >> here's the thing. lawyers aren't good at dealing with new situations. we typicallylook at past

history to determine how to analyze any given circumstance and there is no metric for breaking this down. in fact, when i heard the verdict was coming down, the first thing i did was look at the law to confirm what states do not allow felons with convictions to vote. and it's crazy if you think about the fact he could be elected by texans and not be allowed to cast a vote in the state if he were a resident here. in terms of what impact that has on the election overall, legally, i don't think there's anything to prevent him from running, getting elected again, but it's wildly inconsistent with the rest of our laws. >> megan, more fund raising e-mails? this time from the democrats? >> absolutely. we should have expected it. joe biden is tweeting from the joe biden campaign account on x, only one way to keep donald trump out of the oval office and that's at the ballot box. donate to our campaign today. so i just, this really shows us we're already seeing both

campaigns fund raise off this. this goes to the question of will this change anything. we know both camps are so entrenched at this point. they're both likely to raise a huge amount of money. sara was talking about how both camps are so entrenched here, will it clang the game. it's likely to animate the left as much the right. >> david, still with us. former prosecutor. as we see a crowd looking like it's gathering outside the courthouse. unclear, it's been a media circus out there. whether they're coming out in support. we've seen both campaigns stage events and trying to use the sort of backdrop against this courthouse in the last few days. ahead of this decision. now that we have the guilty verdict. david henderson still with us. what does the trump camp have to prove or say in order to back up the claim that it's rigged? because that's what they're going with, right? it's disgraceful. it's rigged.

it's political. they're trying to get after an opponent. is there evidence of that? >> no. none whatsoever. so the people who are going to be convinced by that argument i would say they don't have to prove anything because they're willing to take it just based on him articulating it. but the one thing i can tell you from the beginning of this trial is i've had people asking me is this what it typically looks like down at the courthouse. my response is absolutely, positively not. i've seen people be incarcerated during trials for not calling the judge sir or ma'am during proceedings. let alone going outside and violating gag orders on multiple occasions. issuing veiled threats against the judge and members of the staff. the judge bent over backwards in this case to give him a fair trial. the prosecution also did some things that i thought were unreasonable to be frank, like gave a four and a half hour closing. part of the reason they did that was to ensure they put all the evidence they had on the record. that's why this trial also took longer to present than it

actually needed to. i think most judges probably would have limited you to a week for this trial. but they've put in all that evidence the judge maintained an even keel throughout the presentation of evidence so he would not have a basis for saying he did not get a fair trial. he didn't get a fair trial. he got a more fair trial than the vast majority of criminal defendants receive. >> he also faces criminal trials in washington as well as georgia over the attempt to overturn the 2020 election. one in florida about his failure to return documents he took from the white house. not clear whether any of that will happen before the election. let's bring in cnbc.com political finance reporter, brian schwartz. the fund raising e-mails are both out from both sides. what do you expect to happen next from your vantage point? >> we've been making calls about this for the last 48 hours. i haven't found a single republican megadonor or business

leader aligned with the republican party who really cared about this verdict. and they're actually doubling and tripling down on their support for donald trump as we speak. there's a variety of events scheduled, they were scheduled prior to the guilty verdict that we've seen tonight. i really don't expect this to impact donald trump's fund raising. in fact, it's going to help him raise money because a lot of the business leaders in his camp are just moving and continue to move in support of him. we heard today that hedge fund executive bill ackman is likely to support donald trump. we heard about this in the build up to this guilty verdict. we're not really sure it's going to be a negative in fund raising, but we're certain he's going see a boom from major business leaders. >> right so this notion that it's rigged and that this is further evidence he says that they are going after him politically. that's something that's resognating with donors, big donors, too?

financiers. steven schwartzman has come back to trump. nelson peltz. given the state of the country, given what they see from the biden administration, issues we're dealing with here like immigration and antisemitism which all seem much bigger than all of this. they're going to continue to back him. now that he's a felon. >> that's right. when you look at it, i don't know if they're thinking about whether they believe trump in how he says things are rigged regarding the election. or that that process has been rigged. i don't know if they go that far, but they're looking at the state of the country and in their view, things are not going as well as they want it to be. you mentioned what's happening in israel. at the border. and really these are just pushing people into trump's camp. it is to me pretty fascinating. these are some of the same people who cried about when january 6th took place. the people who really were upset when the riot took place on

capitol hill on january 6th, 2021. who really denounced what took place. fast forward to today, many of the same people are back with trump. that's notable. what we're going to see going forward, kind of a coalescing around donald trump around a variety of business leaders. steve schwartzman made that announcement about a week ago. this is pretty notable about the timing of these announcements. and based on the calls in the last 48 hours, things on the fund raisings front aren't necessarily going to go against him at this time. >> when i hear from people on wall street is that it's other reasons that they are supporting president trump whereas they wouldn't have before, but given what's happening in the state of our country, abroad, moving over to his side and no mention necessarily of this, i wonder if it will change now that we have the guilty verdict. brian, thank you very much.

>> thank you. >> back to megan as we monitor the clrowds outside the courthouse after he heard from former president trump after the verdict. >> we've just gotten new data from predicted. it's almost like a snap poll of how people are feeling right now. sort of the stock market for political events where people trade share of what they think is most likely to happen. so biden, the probability that he would win this election initially jumped right after this verdict. he's popped up to about 49% probability. president trump fell initially to 47% then jumped back up to 50% then fell back to 49%. so that shows us really that again in a very unscientific way that we don't know yet what's going to happen. there was initially a bump for president trump then it turned out maybe people don't care. i think it could be interesting to watch if that becomes a metaphor or signal. >> relate bly, we have the trump

media and technology group shares which have been trading. they did fall as much as 15% afterwards. hard to tell if that's a barometer, but we have that tradeable security now that we saw that spac go through to determine how people are feeling about him. so just remind us, the next, we're watching the sentencing on july 11th. what happens next? take us through that. >> on july 11th, we will hear from the judge as to what the sentencing will be. that maximum sentence is up to four years in prison. it might not include any prison time at all. we just don't know. we won't know until july 11th. four days later on july 15th is when the republican national convention begins and that's when trump is expected to get the nomination to be the republican nominee for president. so you can only imagine the atmosphere that we're going to be seeing in july. we're going to get the sentencing and likely a formal conviction at that point on july

11th. we could be hearing about prison time then almost immediately we'll be going into the national convention which really becomes a party for president trump and a party for all of the republicans. likely a big fund raising opportunity. it's going to be a really big event in july after we get this sentencing to carry them through. >> let's talk more about that. thank you. as we monitor the crowds that are growing outside the courthouse. criminal defense attorney, former federal and manhattan prosecutor, duncan levin joins us. any chance the sentencing could be delayed? >> obviously some appellate rights he has, but it's unlikely this is going to get pushed out. trump's legal defense has been to delay, delay, delay on all of his criminal matters. up until now, this judge is not having it. hasn't had it from the beginning. he's set a very rigorous schedule. i don't think there's anything that's going to come in the way of this sentencing.

i'm sure you're going to see a flurry of appeals going up to the next level, to the appellate courts in new york in the coming days, but i don't think it's likely to derail anything. the judge has unilateral power to move forward with the sentencing and he's made it clear that's what he's going to do. >> is it your view as some of the other lawyers we've talked to this hour that any prison time would be unlikely? >> well, it is a low level b felony and it's his first criminal offense. so in that regard, it's unlikely but to the extent that the legislature has said that a felony of falsifying business records can be punishable by up to four years, you can expect the prosecutors in this case are going to make that argument. if there's ever a case of who should get prison time, it is this defendant. this defendant who not only committed these offenses, but thumbed his nose at the judicial system. found in contempt of ten

occasions of breaking a gag order. who's been engaged in witness intimidation, threats against the judge, his family, the prosecution, staff, courthouse. this is something they're going to argue deserves jail time. may wind up being a mix of both, but a menu of options available to judge merchan. he can impose up to four years in an indeterminate sentence. we may see something lower than that. 30 days. might see home confinement. probation is on the table as is something called a conditional discharge which is really just a discharge with some conditions. it might be refrain from drugs. travel restrictions. that kind of thing. a >> and just to be clear, he will probably appeal this case and then will he be free in the interim? >> it's up to the judge. it's really this judge all of a

sudden now has a lot of power to both set the timing for the sentencing as well as to impose sentence and unless the appellate courts stop him from doing that which is a possibility but not a probability, i think you're going to see a sentence go ahead and probably to the extent there is incarceration a pretty quick surrender date. now, it's unlikely you're going to see a lengthy prison time from this case but it's something that's now in the unilateral power of judge merchan. >> stay with us if you could. i want to fill everybody in. for those just tuning in, former president trump found guilty on all 34 counts. he will be sentenced on july 11th. here's what he had to say as he left the courthouse just in the last hour or so. >> this was a disgrace. this was a rigged trial by a conflicted judge who was corrupt. a rigged trial.

a disgrace. they wouldn't give us a venue change. we were at 5% or 6% this district in this area. this was a rigged, disgraceful trial. the real verdict is going to be november 5th by the people. and they know what happened here and everybody knows what happened here. you have a tsiros backed d.a. and the whole thing, we didn't do a thing wrong. i'm a very innocent man. it's okay. i'm fighting for our constitution. our whole country is being rigged. this was done by the biden administration. in order to wound or hurt an opponent, a political opponent. i think it's just a disgrace. and we'll keep fighting. we'll fight until the end and win because our country's gone to hell. we don't have the same country

anymore. we have a divided mess. we're a nation in decline. serious decline. millions and millions of people pouring into our country right now from prisons and mental institutions, terrorists. and they're taking over our country. we have a country that's in big trouble. but this was a rigged decision right from day one with a c conflicted judge who should have never been allowed to try this case. never, and we will fight for our constitution. this is long from over. thank you very much. >> again, former president trump reacting to the guilty verdict. megan has been tracking it with new information from the new york prosecutors. >> we just heard the district attorney alvin bragg, the one who initially brought these charges will be holding a press conference at 6:30 p.m. they could be giving us color on likely celebrating this victory.

that's about 45 minutes from now. we have just heard from the white house on this. it's not much, the white house counsel's office is saying they respect the rule of law and have no additional comment but clearly, they're following this and the president biden campaign has been all over it. >> okay. thank you very much. keep us posted as you learn more. with us still on the line is criminal defense attorney and former federal prosecutor, duncan levin. as we really witness something pretty historic in u.s. politics. with the conviction of a former u.s. president and we wonder what comes next. if he gets elected, can he pardon himself on this? >> no, because this is a state offense. he has the ability to pardon federal offenses but something you can't. the only option to the extent he

has an is to appeal to the appel let division when the highest court in new york. he may take up what's called a habeas corpus action which would say his constitutional rights were violated. i'm sure we will see a flurry of litigation coming for several months from the trump defense team on this. they have every right to do that. but they're you know, and they have some appellate issues that they can bring forward. for example, the judge dressed down the defense several times during the particular, the cross-examination and direct examination of daniels. for not objecting after they made a failed mistrial motion. and so he may have appellate rights to try to argue ineffective assistance of counsel. he may have some other things to say about the way in which the

jury was able to find a verdict that was not unanimous on some of the means that were carried out. but really, it's going to be a long shot to win an appeal on this and he can't pardon himself. >> nbc menews is reporting that donald trump, the web side has crashed. presumably because they're in fund raising mode and getting support from this. the former president with a firm grip on the republican party. duncan, he criticizes the prosecutor, the d.a., the judge for their political leanings. is that a valid criticism? >> no. this is a jury that he picked himself. this is not a rigged trial. this is a trial that was overseen by a judge who really gave the defense a lot and gave the prosecution a lot. the jury was picked by both sides. they had the same number of for cause challenges.

they both had some jury instructions that they wanted that they didn't get. they both had objections sustained and they both had objections overruled. there's really nothing to point to that was politically motivated at all and the you recall the beginning parts of this case leading up to it, this was a case the district attorney who he likes to bash, turned down. said he was not going to bring this case originally. there was a prosecutor who resigned for, in disagreement with the d.a. for his decision not to bring this case and he finally did bring this case. the case is a very straightforward case for as much people who are trying to make some confusion out of it, it's very straightforward and both sides really had due process on it, which is the right that was guaranteed to him by the constitution and there's nothing showing he was denied that. >> thank you for joining us on this cnbc news line as we continue to get more headlines

surrounding this verdict. back to megan. >> we're starting to see more reaction from members of congress here. both members from both parties. really showing all social media their thoughts. paul gosar says quote justice is lost here. a republican congresswoman from new york also a republican calling this a sadly unsurprising miscarriage of justice. she had a very complete statement really blaming this on the decision to hold the trial in new york. saying that given that more than 80% of voters had rejected donald trump in the elections, that he was never going to hold a fair trial there or be able to have a fair trial there. barbara lee saying she commends the public servants doing their civic duty here. dina titans from nevada outside of las vegas saying that for the first time in our nation's history, a former president is found guilty of multiple felonies. she's saying our justice system

has proved donald trump twice impeached now four times indicted, morally bankrupt individual is not above the law. so you can see members of both parties turning to their talking points here. much as we've seen the two candidates already to that. republicans saying this was never going to be a fair trial. democrats really highlighting the historic nature and pointing to the fact this means donald trump is no longer fit to serve as president. >> fiery and digging in on both sides. thank you very much. keep us posted. let's bring in paul callan, criminal defense attorney. for your reaction and how surprised you were with where this went. >> no so much with respect to the result. the evidence against him was very, very strong. and was put in methodically and with great care by the assistant district attorneys who tried this case. but a lot of times in such a

high profile case as this, you would see jurors taking a longer period of time to reach a verdict, but obviously they had decided right away based on the evidence that went in and who knows. maybe even based on trump's conduct in the courtroom, he treated the judge with absolute dripping contempt throughout. he was falling asleep half the time during the presentation of the case. there might have been resentments from the jury built up by that. they did have strong evidence against him to support a guilty verdict. but it came in very, very fast. >> nine and a half hours. of deliberation. this morning, they heard more legal guidelines repeated to them by the judge including how to assess credibility of some t the witnesses. they read testimony over from michael cohen and the tabloid chief. do republicans have an argument,

you just heard megan talking about some of the reactions, to call this a miscarriage of justice in any way? >> well, you know, an appellate court will have a look at this, but i can tell you that the evidence that was put in against him was carefully evaluated by the court. there were pretrial motions made and argued vociferously and in great detail by defense counsel for trump. so he had his day in court and that appellate court will look at this, but i think he's going to have a hard time getting it overturned. it was, this judge was very careful about being fair in terms of what he let into evidence and he excluded evidence that the prosecutor wanted to get in. i think an appellate court probably is going to uphold this conviction. >> i want to tell people what we're looking at, which is the new york city highway. we're following the trump motorcade. >> looks like the o.j. simpson

car. if you remember those scenes. >> yes, i do. not a chase. but just a motorcade. >> trump in a bronco? >> no, he's not in a bronco. he's in a motorcade. leaving the courthouse. >> just checking. okay. >> going back to re-group. they have to have been expgtectg this. now i guess one of the questions is what happens between now and july 11th, which is when the sentencing is scheduled for, which is close to the gop convention which is hard to believe. what are you expecting? >> well, it's a case follows its normal course in new york, what happens now is the probation department has to prepare a report back to the judge with a sentence recommendation. and with a normal human being, they'd be out interviewing family members and friends to determine what kind of character the defendant has.

and trying to get a sense of whether it's an appropriate case for probation as opposed to jail time. but obviously you know, this is a former president of the united states. i don't know if probation will be getting too much useful information from friends and family here. it's going to be up to the judge. now, he faces potentially four years in prison on a class e felony, which is what this is. he could be fined $5,000. he could also be put on probation. for probably as much as four years. he could be told to wear an ankle bracelet and confined to his home. there are all kind of options here. frankly, he's been so brutal in his attacks on the judge. the judge by the way held him in contempt ten times during the course of the trial for violating the gag order. if he was an ordinary human being, he'd be looking at jail

time. but as a former president, i don't know. the judge really has been very careful and has treated him very fairly throughout the trial. so i really don't know what the judge is going to do. >> first time offender. >> yeah, and i will tell you that statistically, first time offenders normally do not get jail time on this offense. so that's historically been the case. but he's been held in contempt of court ten times during the trial. i've never seen a case, i've tried a lot of criminal cases and i've never seen somebody held in contempt ten times during the course of a trial. normally, they'd be thrown in jail in the middle of a trial. didn't happen here. will the judge be angry about that? about his performance during the trial? i don't know. he has every right to be. but i think in the end, trump will probably get probation. and not jail. >> all right, paul, thank you for joining us and weighing in on this breaking news.

former n nyc prosecutor. megan with new statements coming in. >> we're just now hearing from michael cohen who's really been at the center of this case. he says today is an important day for accountability and the rule of law. while it has been a difficult journal for me and my family, the truth always matters. i want to thank my attorneys for their invaluable guidance and support through this process. that's michael cohen who was literally at the center of this case. the one who made those payments to stormy daniels who president trump was reimbursing at the heart of this case. he testified the defense really tried to paint him as an imperfect witness, saying there had been a fallout between him and donald trump and that's why the jury should not believe him. clearly, the jury thought otherwise. that's him saying today is an important day for accountability. >> so many fascinating aspects to talk about. the politics of all of this. the legality.

what happens next on the legal side of it which wea've talked about into the sentencing. what will you be watching as reports come in from nbc that the website is crashing? he's being painted as a martyr and it's what he's been saying all along. that it's rigged. >> i think the first thing i'm going to look at are the fund raising totals from both campaigns. we know trump website is down like you said. we know the biden campaign is planning to ride this as long as they can. so we'll get those fund raising totals. i'm sure we'll be out with polls. we'll be seeing polls within a few days or a week to see what that initial bump is going to be. then how does each campaign start to frame this. campaign season is kicking off in earnest now. trump no longer has to spend his weekdays sitting in court.

how does he ride this and do we see those polls, not only what is the initial change, but do they stay? last? do both candidates ride it the way they want to? >> you can imagine both sides being so fired up. thank you very much. stay close with us. it has been a very much. stay close with us. it has been a monumental hour and a interpret historic moment here in u.s. political history as the former president is convicted, guilty on all 34 counts on this hush money trial. this is the first time a former u.s. president has been a convicted felon. we've been talking about the ramifications, the political ramifications. that conversation is going to continue. obviously it's something that investors and all citizens are paying very close attention to right now. in the next hour we're going to go to "last call." "mad money's" going to be on at 7:00 p.m. tonight. we're going to pick up the coverage with brian sullivan, brian, because there is so much to unpack here in this story that is developing. we're watching the