tv Mad Money CNBC June 26, 2024 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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bounced right where i should have bounced, and i think it rises further. >> guy? >> you should go to youtube and watch his graduation speech -- >> high school? >> i'm going to watch it. >> yeah, i gavthe adtie gruaon speak. >> around. >> thank you for watching gas money. hey i am cramer. welcome to matt money. i'm trying to make you a little money. my job, to teach you about this business so call me. maybe we have it all wrong. we keep talking about how the
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consumer is overstretched, but what if the consumer is just fed up with paying higher prices for so many things for so long and has grown frugal. will easily jump in a bargain but has no time for those who have not rained in their prices. new frugality is a mind-set. you and i can profit from this incredibly powerful but i think unrecognized trend. that is my conclusion for a day where the dow jones is up 16 points. the nasdaq game some pretty good caps. i know this new frugality thesis is an obvious, but that's because we keep getting thrown off the scent. take yesterday, we learned the cfo of walmart dave a talk where he said it would be difficult for his company to
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beat its first quarter. that is taken by wall street as what is known as a guy down. a bomber of a forecasts. walmart stock will hammer. if you do a simple chatgpt query about what he said versus what he said on the last conference call you will find that he used almost the exact same quote. basically the whole talk was a nonevent yesterday. if you saw walmart yesterday you got it wrong. there rollback in prices for thousands of goods has made merchandise incredibly appealing to the newly frugal consumer. businesses remains strong in the stores has never looked better. now that's the same reason why costco is such a a strong dock. it is amazing how they are pressuring suppliers to rollback prices. every time i look there is a new signature brand that has a lower price and is in better
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shape than any of the big brand names. i love the product. i always feel costco is in my corner versus the greedy suppliers that want the prices -- they won't lower their prices where they should've been. they solved the supply chain issues. other than costco who was in my corner? i mentioned tjx. they don't fit the profile of the newly frugal consumer and where she wants to shop. tjx does. i highlighted this last summer. either way, met boss from jp morgan has noticed another big loss. if lots were to liquidate its
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1400 locations they would expand dramatically. not to mention their cheap merchandise they could pick up for next to nothing. that will cause the stock of ollie's to soar. and it should. ross and burlington are both performing and a high-level. these chains are cutting the price of apparel aggressively. again though we keep getting thrown off by a smokescreen. you might think the consumer is clearly getting lasting because of all of the dollar store stocks. they're getting crushed, right? no. they are not. i think people realize dollar stores have become more relatively expensive to purchase goods. they raise the prices very aggressively during covid. they definitely don't have the lowest price. that is walmart. that is costco. the younger consumers who live
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with this how to measure what is going on. they measure price versus five all the time. they can comparison shop. they have constant internet access their whole lives. they won't let the dollar stores get away with their most latest round of inflation. they were prices lower. the dollar store business declines do spoil my new thesis. if you actually care about finding bargains you don't want to shop there. look at the success of temu and shien. you go online and you see their prices. they seem like mistakes because how can anything be so cheap? the prices are actually real and the mistake is not taking advantage of them. sometimes taste may come into play. as someone who bought enough stuff from temu for my wife only to see it in the blue recyclable canned the next day. when i sent my feelings were hurt she said why? she threw it in the right been. let me give you another example
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. carnival reported tremendous numbers yesterday. you might think there is something frugal about taking a cruise, but that would be wrong. some of these options are insanely cheap. carnivals inside rooms range from $150-$175 per night. these process are phenomenal. ridiculously low when you compare to hotel rooms and airfares. that's a new frugality. yesterday we talked about swimming pool related goods. i thought the problem was consumer pushback. it's true with race so high you need to take out a home equity loan but i came up with an alternative theory. the cost of labor is a issue. paying someone to fix up your home is borderline extortion right now. it's simply become too expensive to afford. you need to see these cost come
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down before you see more pools being built. the cost of labor is too high. we've seen nubile cells plunging too. the frugal consumers are clever and using the web consulate to get a in a deal. they love boating, but they know is too expensive. the freedom boat club rental service, you don't have to keep up with maintenance. you borrow the boat and return it when you're done. the value conscious way to go boating. i'm sure when people rent it they say i want to have one, and i tell you the renting society is beating the owning society. you wonder why fail the cvs and walgreens are dropping? in the past the drugstores were timesavers. the frugal consumer just doesn't spend money at these places now that everything is locked up behind plastic. amazon tends to sell everything you can get and it's usually delivered the next day or even the same day in many parts of the country and that a lower
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price. again, these newer consumers know price is better than any other retailers that usually put amazon out of the game. mcdonald's has a five dollar bill going. they finally had to bring it back after raising prices endlessly. texas roadhouse are offering $11 dinners and they have great liquor options. let's suspend the notion that the consumer is solely strapped for cash. the bottom line consumers finally pushing back and demanding better prices. we are no longer willing to pay more than what something seems to be worth which bowls very poorly for the stores have yet to rollback prices. but very well for the ones i've mentioned. bottom line consumers in no mood to pay more for less. you can't let the false
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characterization you off the scent. if you offer the consumer a real bargain and not a dollar store one that consumer is going to take it. ryan in michigan? >> hello, jim. thank you for all your input. >> we have a third timer last night. what's going on? >> thinking about at&t bout a year ago. it recently hit at 452 week high. i'm thinking to keep that and add more verizon and t-mobile. i like the yield on verizon. >> at&t has come back. t-mobile has got growth. i am a believer with growth. love, start with the notion that the consumer is scrapped for cash and and that except the consumer set up with unfair prices jacked up during covid
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and need to come down now. if they are offered a bargain they will gladly take it. maybe the guys that are extortionists help you realize costco and walmart are winners. let's find out what's really is going on. speaking of apparel why i think it's got the wrong name and it is in our age. with investors determining growth i get a sense of where we stand. stay with the new frugal cramer . >> don't miss a second of map money. follow @jim cramer on x. send jim a email to madmoney.cnbc.com or give us a call at 1-800-743-2622.
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tonight we got results from the iconic -- demo company with stock that has almost doubled since last october. it ever so slightly paired with a substantial $.11 basis. while management left there full forecast intact they spelled out they expect a 5% earnings hit and a increased marketing budget. despite these new costs and investments they can still hit the number. that's exceedingly possible. sometimes the market has trouble appreciating nuance. let's take a close look with
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the president of levi strauss and company. welcome back to map money. >> great to see you again. >> you've just been crushing it taking advantage of a remarkable wave in denim and augmenting it. tell us how you are able to crush the earnings estimate? >> to that point we were thrilled to deliver another strong quarter. up 8%, constant currency. to your point with a very big earnings week we are expecting this momentum to accelerate in the back half of the year. it starts with growth. our dtc business is just on fire. we delivered another double- digit quarter. we were up 11%. driven off of my consecutive quarters of strong growth. the second shot on i will give you is on our women's business. we've been at this for a while,
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but we are sharpening the strategy. it is working. our business is up over 20% in our dtc channel. to your point of profitability that is a very big focus. we delivered record gross margins this quarter and are driving a lot of efficiencies through our key enabler project fuel. >> talk about the strength of the consumer. a lot of people are hammering. i feel if they get a deal they are spending. it was really not a consumer that is strapped. it is a consumer that is more particular. >> i completely agree. we see our consumers is been really resilient. we are excited about the category. as a category leader it is our responsibility to drive a lot of innovation and excitement. i think we are doing that in a couple of ways. one is driving the next evolution of the trend going baggy, blues and wider across both men and women.
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also this whole head to toe denim lifestyle. that is really our new focus. yes, continuing to own genes, but taking the denim top to bottom. things like denim skirts and dresses which historically have not been big business are exploding. of triple digits in the quarter. >> obviously anybody like my wife who places endlessly talks about the new album. it has levi's jeans, a song. what has that meant for your business? >> we cannot be more humbled, more honored and excited that the fact that beyonce who is such a global culture icon with name a song after us. we've had a relationship with her over a decade. as it relates to the business, our business is being driven off of the key strategies that we spoke to.
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strengthening our direct to consumer channel, strengthen the u.s. in particular, three quarters of growth. what is happening with women's and with denim bottoms with this next fashion cycle. >> i know some people are trying to sell the stock down. the stock has been such a home run. the only thing that i would have is i was surprised that europe is weaker. maybe if you can explain that to me? >> europe actually met our expectations, jim. we saw sequential improvement since the first quarter. we are still believing we are going to see a return to growth in the back half. dtc was five -- positive. we expect both to improve in the second half. we double down this last year and did a whole reset on our tops business going over 20%
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and that impacts europe as well. >> you did mention something, i was quite impressed. what does it mean for your bottom line? >> is an important question. we talk about dtc first, being our key growth driver, wholesale is still really important. we are going to continue to reach millions of fans around the world through wholesale. we saw improvement from q1 through q2. we expect that to continue driven off of products, driving relevant product. we have so much excitement. we are also bringing a lot of fabric innovation. it is summertime and we have a new performance school platform that we are launching. it starts with product across both channels. women's is outperforming. i should mention women's claim the number one market share here in the u.s. and is doing really well around the world as well.
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wholesale, i am excited. the other thing worth mentioning is last year this time we were struggling with a lot of headwinds in our supply chain. that is all behind us. >> i know the cfo, one of the best. tell us how he's doing with project fuel and an explanation of what's going on there? >> great question. project fuel is going to be a multiyear initiative. it really is a key enabler. it's going to be an omnichannel retailer. we have our sites that are growing this business. growing this business to be 10 billion and expanding our margins to 15%. project fuel is a really critical part of that. we have multiple work streams across the country. one is we talked about being a retailer, if it is productivity and profitability of in our
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stores. we are making good progress. you are seeing the results. that is going to continue forward. rewiring the company to be faster and more agile. our entire go to market project is getting tighter and shorter. the list goes on. great confidence that we are going to ultimately drive a lot of world -- of growth. especially on the margin side. you can expect to see a lot more in the coming months. >> gross margins of 180 basis points. i'm trying to think about what other companies are delivering those numbers and they are very hard to come by. this is not an easy number to reach. >> you are absolutely right. it is a that bellwether to the health of the business. we have many work streams that are feeling bad. it certainly starts with our cost of goods.
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if a record number for the company. we are so proud. relative to our supply chain costs the goods coming in exceeding expectations, our dtc penetration driving a lot of great favorability to our conversation we were just having. higher full price selling tower direct to consumer channel. all of these things are helping us for that gross margin, which as an alternative to gross margin dollars and help us get that leverage on the bottom line. >> terrific work. thank you for coming on. the stock has been a rocket. the bottom line was fabulous, the top line was good and you are doing a fantastic job. thank you. >> thank you so much. great to be here.
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and help a partner like the world food programme as they provide more than food to people in need. together, citi and the world food programme empower families across the globe. ♪♪ we keep hearing consumers are scrapped for cash and not spending like they used to and it's wreaking havoc in retail. all retailers are not created equal. if you look closely there are still plenty of winners. consider the case of urban outfitters, which you also know is anthropology, free people
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and nully. honestly i haven't given this story enough credit. it's been decades lost in the wilderness, but now the stock has more than doubled. clearly something is going right. at the moment urban is doing incredibly well. it's hard to notice because the company has so many moving parts and the namesake is the worst. urban outfitters the business has a lot going for it. on the retail side which is more than 90% of the business urban has a network of 790 stores. the namesake is no longer number one. now anthropology is number one. urban outfitters barely edged out free people for 2nd place. racking up 26% of the company sales versus 25% for free people. this year free people will be larger. i don't know. all this is profit.
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the apparel subscription service is very much in pure growth mode. it is growing like a we and i love the business model. put it all together and you can understand why the company did so well last year. when you drill down some of these brands are on fire. anthropology had 12% same-store sales growth. free people up more than 21%. if only urban outfitters that keeps dragging things down. they took a small hit on the tiny wholesale business with the new subscription service 89% suggested sales growth. in the end they are $3.25 per share, up from $1.75 the year before. just as important urban came
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into the new fiscal year was tied inventories. they didn't have to do much. merchandise sitting need to be marked down. there were not a lot of promotions. now last year's overall numbers were excellent. they reported an ugly fiscal fourth quarter in february with disappointing revenue, same- store earnings and sales. the fourth quarter includes january and the business this -- decelerated rapidly best month. at the time management made some mixed comments about how the river with -- how february was going. given that they don't give explicit guidance investors were left to interpret that on their own. that typically happens. if you leave it somewhat tepid they are going to say is extremely tidbit. it doesn't help that they may come positive preannouncement the previous month making people think management might
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be clueless. as wall street got even more worried about the consumer the stock fell even further. and then jeffries hit it with this brutal side of proprietary data. the stock got hit again, that rough patch in march and april. in may '21 better than expected sales. colliding inventory, everything you want to see. management said they had high single digit growth paired with low single digit growth in brick-and-mortar sales. breaking that down free people deliver 17.1% same sale growth. anthropology up 10.4. urban outfitters saw a worse than expected decline. do you see the pattern?
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wholesale is finally growing again and that means they are selling to other stores. that was something macy's called out specifically. the ceo sounded almost gleeful noting the urban outfitters brand is now under new leadership. he hinted at some encouraging signs for the banner in may. i don't know. i also liked what he had to say about the consumer. he said a little more than the typical retail executive. listen to this. he sums it up.
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i like that. now, it sounds good to me. the stock dropped 4% yesterday -- the next day. i bet it could keep running as urban sells for less than 12 times this year's earnings estimate. if they can keep beating the numbers the stock will look even cheap or in retrospect. in the end urban outfitters may not seem like all that enticing at first, but that's because it's a competent story and people don't have any ability to discern a complicated story. levi strauss is a complicated story tonight. if you do the homework you realize urban have something very special going on.
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the best part of the business is the white-hot free people brand. it will soon supplant the urban out that is brand. you have to be optimistic about this new nully subscription service. if it's the taste of the new frugality that i talked about. by the way, when i was with my daughter in montana last week she dressed almost entirely in that outfit. maybe that is somewhat antidotal, but i like to point it out anyway. the only bad part of the urban outfitters store is urban outfitters. it might be time for the change of a name. maybe they should call the company free people. maybe they should call it anthropology or how about this fp&a? how about philadelphia fashion company? i like that.
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either way the magic -- they are not happy with the performance of urban outfitters. right now urban outfitter -- the bottom line right now free people has quietly become one of the better stories in all of retail. in less than 12 times earnings i think the stock deserves a lot more love than it's getting. it makes sense to buy right now before they change the name to something smarter like the ones we have suggested. let's go to tony in florida. >> thanks for taking my call. if you have ever met great team . looking forward to tomorrow's conference call. >> fantastic. and our team is amazing. how can i help? >> i'm fighting this one really bad. it gives me a 3.5 dividend.
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is this something i should hold onto or sell? >> tap is a very complicated story. i've done a lot of work behind the scenes and i am shocked at this decline. the yield is great. i am shocked honestly. people say listen all of their -- you and i both know. if anything i want to buy it. it so hard to buck the gop-one thesis that everything alcohol is no longer good. they just think people lose the taste. it is not just about alcohol consumption. urban outfitters has become one of the better stores in the retail space. watch more matt money.
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the private sector? the four year forecast was fine. the stock taking a beating. anyone who follows payx knows it stock tends to fall off after earnings no matter what. do we need to be more concerned? i don't know. let's check in with john gibson. welcome back to matt money. >> hey, jim. it's great to be back with you. >> thank you, john. there was a sense that you will maybe do five. to me at the same time some people feel business has gotten tougher for you. let's try to figure out whether that's the case. you didn't have a number of new client games. in perspective of revenue and earnings things were terrific. >> i think you said it from the
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start. it seems like whenever we beat and reaffirm guidance for the next fiscal year we seem to drift down. what i will tell you is we have very solid results both on revenue and earnings per share in the fourth quarter. in fact when you look at the fourth quarter as you know we've had this program were we have been helping clients. it's a one time service charge. when you exclude that our revenue grew a person in the first quarter. in fact our growth actually accelerated in the second half of the year. our client growth this past fiscal year was slightly better than the prior fiscal year. we had a good year this year. when you look at our business i will tell you very solid results. when you look at our business is growing at double-digit, our retirement business double digits, we are well-positioned.
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we met good. that was my thinking. i know there are people who would say wait a second, they said it was a tight labor market. because it is still hard to find people. at the same time you did say small businesses continue to hire. the small business employment watch that you tell us about had a one-month gain in job growth best since january 2022. there are a lot of good things happening in small business. you are doing the usual to help in making some good numbers from it. it seems like business as usual to me. >> look, jim, we look at our index and what we continue to see his moderate growth for small businesses. we are also seeing labor inflation continued to cool, which i hope the fat fees as a assigned to take further action. we saw all regions improved in
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our may report. what i would say is it stable. one of the things we didn't understand this past fiscal year was with a economy growing at the rate it was our models will suggest we were going to be seeing more hiring. we simply were not say that. in the fourth quarter we actually saw growth in both our payroll and hr outsourcing businesses. that is a good sign. we went out and talk to clients what we found if they were having problems finding qualified people. we created the employer of choice playbook and introduced it first in our p.o. we are going out and leveraging technology, data analytics and our dedicated hr professionals to actually build customized plans for our clients to help them go into the market and attract using technology and a.i. , more qualified employees for their business. >> i think a person who is not
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qualified, and i don't want to get republican or democrat here, but i've run a lot of businesses. the minimum wage is fine. people say the workers don't make nearly as much as the bosses. but i did feel this time when i read through your call that it's possible that the minimum wage is -- they feel like they cannot hire anybody. they are not going to be able to grow if it's going to be this continual higher rate now that we have a lot more people coming into the workforce. do you feel like i do that the minimum wage is hurting hiring in some places? >> i think that employers learned a lot of lessons during the pandemic in the various employment checks that we had during that time. i think when we had the situation where a lot of people
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were hiring anyone they can find what they found was when they hire someone who was not as high a quality that person had a negative impact on the culture and the productivity of current employees. we really monitor. we have our hr professionals engaging. we have over 158 years of recorded calls just last year alone that we have transcribed and done analytics on. what you find is when people were hiring a lot of people we had a lot of employee relations related matters. now to your point it may be that the price is a little higher and now they're being a little more picky because they're paying a higher wage. what i will tell you is people want qualified workers and they are not going to settle for anything less. i think they learned a lot of lessons during the pandemic. >> that's a much more thoughtful response that i am thinking. i guess sometimes get the knee- jerk reaction. it's about how people do at the
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workplace more so than a dollar or two. there is a retirement savings crisis in this country. people don't put money away. i've seen it so many times personally. what can we all do about it? >> you and i talked about it the last time we spoke. as you think about the aging population and the impact this is going to have socially honest if we don't deal with it now. we know a lot about the 401(k) business. we have over 120,000 clients. we'll put a lot of the new plants that are out there. is kind of concerning. in the 1980s almost 50% of the working population was on a
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pension plan. you look at it today and we believe there is upwards of 60 million people that have no retirement savings plan at all. certainly we've been supporting the secure act and the secure act ii. we are also supporting the rise act. there was a loophole put in secure act 2.0 that needs to be closed. it really hinders a small business. when i say micro business, under five employees. they don't get the same level of tax credits is a larger firm. this rise act would feel that. of the 6 million small businesses over half of those are less than five employees. that leaves a lot of workers on the sidelines. in the states we have about 20 states that implemented a retirement plan and there are 12 others considering it. in those days we saw market improvement in the savings rates. i really hope this is something policymakers can get behind. >> it just makes no sense.
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are you ready? let's start with mary claire in idaho. >> jim cramer, how are you? i was in your master class for 10 years. i love it. here is my question, cassava sciences is an all time or play. >> i know of neurodegenerative diseases and i will say this if they can say something big the stock triples and if it doesn't i think it drips down. let's go to dave in illinois. >> dr. cramer, my man. how are you? >> i'm doing well. i'm doing unbelievably well. how about you, my friend? i am well.
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this $6 billion company develops and manufactures diagnostic and therapeutic products for the treatment of heart cancer and other diseases . they have outperformed the s&p and is up over 25% on the year. your thoughts? >> i think it's great. now we talk about that tomorrow at noon for the investing club conference. i wish -- as always i thank you for your call. that is the conclusion of the lightning round, sponsored by charles schwab. >> one stock is recently delivered for shareholders. it's more joy on the way? cramer checks out fedex next. including over 400 technical studies. tailor the platforms to your unique needs with nearly endless customization.
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and track market trends with up-to-the-minute news and insights. trade brilliantly with schwab. >> i had 20 years of experience as an hr professional and i had reached a ceiling, so i enrolled in umgc. i would not be the person that i am today had it not been for the partnership with umgc. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement.
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dramatically reducing expenses which will likely be worth more. and some amazing earnings on a fairly small bump in revenue. for many analysts what really stuck out was the increase in the enormous buyback. that accident $2.5 billion in share purchase. now the company is announcing another 2.5 billion. that is aggressive. it shows confidence. there was a fantastic piece yesterday about buybacks. the number one buyback in the last year's marathon petroleum. it struck its share cap by 90%. general motors is number two. the ceo has overseen a 17% decline. the stock is up almost 25%. ford down 14%.
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tesla doesn't have a buyback. ford among the cheapest stock with a 5% yield rate doing nothing. it's possible no amount of stock buybacks could make a difference. state street just bought back 11% of its shares. that stock is up less than 3%. bill disperses also retire 7% of its shares. the supply, the homebuilders -- look, the homebuilders are holding up too well. they don't do a lot of building these days. of course if you are in the right industry everything is great. then you have the double digit repurchases. obviously buybacks are not panaceas or else all the stocks would be up phenomenally. they can be springboards if the underlying business is ound.
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when people realize they were having tremendous quarters there simply weren't enough shares to go around and that is why the stocks soared. there wasn't enough supply. which brings me full circle to fedex. when you see the stock of more than 50% in a day you can bet there is not enough supply at these higher levels. the buyback increases performance as their earnings- per-share will grow nicely. with that said i like to chase stocks after such big news. management is much more bullish than the analyst. i think after this quarter fedex has forever changed it strikes. but even hour fracture of the growth beyond what it already has will need to lead to explosive earnings.
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after this quarter is becoming one of the most best stocks to own in the entire market. congratulations are due to the ceo. the job is getting done and the shareholders are the real winners, which is exactly as it should be. i am jim cramer, i will see you tomorrow. "last call" starts right now. right now, wall street's top strategist making an eye- popping prediction about where the market is pretty good. you may not believe the number. take storms, big payouts, investors can bet on the weather and more. we will tell you how. you may not believe your eyes, the controversial marshall putting the entire ad industry on edge. all that and more over the our. last call is up right now.
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