report. we'll bring you reports from chevron and exxon and interviews with ceos of both companies. it's friday, august 2nd, 2024. it's 6:00 one place and andrew is over there and it's like noon. "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. and from paris, france this morning. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. joe and i are back here. we are in times square. andrew is still at the olympics in paris. w we'll get to him for an update in a moment. andrew, you are looking good.

>> a parisian olympics type of thing. >> i feel this is my final day in paris. i feel i needed to go as parisian as i possibly could. we have a lot of news to get to. >> but no beret. you don't do the raspberry beret. i feel the distance between us. it feels like you're here. just so you know, the headwinds. be ready for the headwinds, for the markets. two hours longer coming back. >> the flight coming back. let's look at the headwinds for the market. this comes after a global market selloff that is continuing. the dow futures are down 360 points. that has gotten worse throughout the early morning hours this morning. the s&p indicated off 62. the nasdaq is the biggest decliner.

down 340 points this morning. below fair value. it all comes after a nearly 500-point decline for the dow yesterday. the nasdaq tumbling by 2.3%. it didn't stop there. the small caps had their worst day since february. they're on track for the worst week since january. they are down 3% after the big gains recently. you still see year-to-date up 8%. ag again, this took place around the world. in asia, thenikkei tumbled 5.8% overnight. the biggest drop since the covid plunge in march of 2020. if you were looking at the topix index there, that fell 6% today. add that to declines of 2% or 3% the day before, over two days, more than 9%. that is the biggest decline the topix index has seen since 2011

with the fukushima earthquake and tsunami that came in japan. a lot of this coming because of what they are seeing on a different basis. the central bank or bank of japan raising rates. there are expectations for additional raises and what that will mean for the export business with the stronger yen. taking a look at the move in treasury yields here in the united states. also some massive movement. you see the ten-year at 3.93% this morning. the two-year down at 4.11%. you have gold prices hitting record highs. gold is above $2,500. then you have the vix really picking up as well. volatility above 20. the first time we have seen that in longer than i can remember. >> weird. bitcoin was not correlated to gold gold. it is up today. the whole gold value. they definitely have different

things going on. you know, bitcoin has gone up so much. we are getting our rate cuts, everyone. that's what you wanted. they are coming eventually. >> this is a sign of a weaker economy. >> bad news isn't good news right now. bad news is really what it is. enough the worry is that the fed -- the rate cuts may not help stem. now we're hearing the "r" word again. >> recession. >> yeah. we were talking in makeup. we always get a solid jobs number number. if it is not 185,000, the unemployment rate will really, i think, throw a scare in people. we always had -- >> adp was weaker than expected. you had jobless claims at the highest level in over a year. >> we always seem to get a lot of government data. we always seem to somehow -- you know, jack welsh was the first

guy to say they weren't always exactly right. we had nothing but strong jobs numbers. that would be kind of a shocker. we're getting our rate cuts. >> the dow is now 400 points below fair value. it is getting weaker by the minute. >> rate cuts don't hit it. it is nice getting both. cutting rates in a strong economy. if you are cutting because there is a problem, maybe that is what we are coming to grips with. we cannot do five or six. we can do 50 basis points. >> we could. there are already calls saying the fed is behind the curve. they were behind the curve on raising rates and coming out of it. we'll see. >> none of these big tech earnings have been that bad, but not that good either. we will look at some now that are weighing on the market. look at where intel is trading there at $22. i'm going to look on the long-term chart. reporting a weak growth forecast. it's a spend in the dividend and announces plans to cut more than

15% of the work force which doesn't seem like what the chips act was designed to do. result in 15,000 job cuts. can the government pick winners versus losers? can you say solindr isn't that correct solindra? >> the other is to slash things on the revenue side of things. it looks like intel has given up on getting some growth back to the positions. they are shoring up by cutting dividend and doing the rest of the things. >> it is not the intel of the past. it is going to be down on 30% and $29 on $123 billion market cap. we're getting down near $100 billion. a amd, which had been doing better, $200 billion. you have nvidia, which has taken over the world.

amazon's revenue missed estimates. the forecast came in weaker than expected. the company cited consumers who were cautious and trading down to cheaper goods and distracted by chaotic news cycle. apple is flat for the week amid the selloff. quarterly results beat estimates with revenue rising by 5%. it was lifted by the jump in ipad services revenue, but iphones with another quarter where it was actually down, right? iphone sales. much more on the big tech earnings straight ahead. the knockoff or knock-on effect from intel on global chip stocks. andrew, this was not -- what if we hadn't tried to bolster our domestic chip industry and help intel out? this is with the help. >> what intel will say it took a lot longer to get the money out than anticipated.

>> shouldn't be dependent on the money anyway. they never were before. i don't think the government knows how to pick winners and losers. when we do, we never learn. >> the question is should we pick different p cocompanies to it? >> that's right. we never seem to pick the right strategy for evs? the government? we didn't even invite tesla. >> that's a different story. look at the success of tesla, actually, we did pick the right ones early on. he really did a remarkable job and the government was helpful there. i was going to mention before the olympic coverage here, that one of the most interesting insights of what is going on at amazon, for example, you talked about the news cycle being crazy. they talked about the olympics and also talked about trump --

attempted assassination of former president trump as reasons why people are not buying and actually why the guidance was a little bit lower. they talked about the consumer and strength of the consumer. part of it was a distraction. one of the distractions being the news cycle at large, but the olympics being a huge distraction. i never contemplated that to are prevent people from buying new product. apparently, it may very well be. >> that's interesting. >> the olympics is providing a good distraction, i think, you know? >> a great distraction from a lot of things, hopefully. >> here we are back with the markets. that's what i was going to mention. the dow is down a lot today. that is basically getting to where it was at one point yesterday. it was down almost 700. it closed down less than 500. you know, it's even worse. this could be the start --

>> if this idea of distraction, news distraction -- i never heard of news being a distraction for a consumer company. we will have a lot of distractions between now and november. by the way, yesterday, we had a great distraction in the return of evan gershkovich and others. i just wonder how all of these news headlines will be part of this. . i want to bring you up to date with the headlines in paris over the last 24 hours. i know you went home and i don't want to make anybody jealous. i was there in person and saw this. it was electrifying. simone biles winning gold and suni lee taking bronze in the all-around gymnastics final. biles is the first american to win the all-around gold more than once. she now has nine total medals. six are gold. making her the most decorated american gymnastics in olympics history. when i tell you to see these two

up there with the american flag was something. it happened the way it was supposed to happen. simone one. it looked like suni was going to win for a time. it was pretty crazy in the room. you could see the magic on the screen there. >> andrew, watching it -- i guess it is an nbc plug. watching it on tv, there are advantages to being there because you get the overall feeling, but you don't -- we have great commentators to give all this unbelievable color and better shots and on a wide screen tv, there is nothing like being there. you feel the crowd, but -- maybe it would be nice to have a walkman? >> i compare it to having a private tour of the louvre.

you see it would be nice to hear in one ear and be there in the other. >> you feel it. >> if you have been to the u.s. open in the past in person in new york, you know, american express used to sponsor that radio thing that people put in their ear and listen to what was being said so you could watch and listen at the same time. >> i'm told it is on all day long. it has been on all day long. i forgot. that's what you do for two weeks. the olympics are always on. >> let me tell you about what else happened. the second that was over, we jumped in the car and raced over to swimming because it was electric there. the u.s. women won silver in the 4x200-meter relay. we were all watches katie ledecky because she won her 13th career medal. it was pretty unbelievable. we were hoping for gold.

we were so close, so, so close. she is now the most decorated female olympian in history breaking a tie with three others. the only swimmer with more medals is michael phelps. that was last night, guys. it was pretty amazing. there's more to come tonight and tomorrow and we got another week of it. i'm going to be headed home. carl will be on his way to paris to bring us coverage next week. >> lots and lots to come. when we come back, in fact, we will focus more on what is happening with intel. those shares plummeting on a weak forecast. the company suspending its dividend and announcing layoffs. thousands and thousands of layoffs. that stock is off 21% this morning. we will show you what ceo pat gelsinger told jon fortt last night. and quarterly results from chevron and exxon. we will bring you the numbers as

they hit. we have the interviews with the ceo ekemi wirth and exxon's ceo ekemi wirth and exxon's michael woods. 70 degrees and sunny today. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist wealth. where meaningful investments matter most. ? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

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taxes they are looking at with this and a well write-off and operational downtime with the assets. the street may not have known about those things, but will find out today. revenue at $51.8 billion. that is better than expectation. the stock right now, joe, what are you seeing on your machine? >> i think that's right. $150.50 to $158. what is not right is the spike there. >> that looks like it was last night. 150.50 just came in. >> there wasn't a real trade at 160. >> a decline of 1.4% right now. we will dig through a lot of these things. we knew wti prices were weaker through the quarter. we will hear what exxonmobil has to say as well. chevron's mike wirth will join us at 8:00 on cnbc. the other big story is the

arbitration matter with these two with the assets at hess. that is going to arbitration. we will hear from each of them over what is takeing place with that. they could not negotiate so they are taking it to arbitration. shares of intel are stumbling as the third quarter revenue missed expectations. intel will cut 15% of the work force and suspending its dividend as part of the turn around plan. the company has been struggling with the pull back in spending on traditional data center chips as customers shift on the focus of a.i. intel is far behind. nvidia is the clear leader on that. intel servers were the draw and that is getting caught up with what is happening with a.i. that is where all the demand is these days. intel's ceo pat gelsinger spoke to jon fortt about the intel efforts to catch up to the competition. >> everybody is still pretty

focused on their a.i. and accelerate or investments and t cpu portion is modest. we see bread crumbs of enterprise cycles. we see growth there. our products are getting stronger, but the story is one where the data center and cloud is driven by the a.i. investments as the primary ones. we are seeing good, early signs of customers there. we do see some of those benefits. we are not getting the full benefits of those in our business. >> you can see the full interview today on "closing bell overtime." check out the intel effect on the chip stocks. rougher day across the board. nvidia shares down 3.5%. taiwan semiconductor off 4%. same story with samsung electronics. let's get over to stephanie link to get reaction from this. she is the chief investment strategist at hightower advisers

and cnbc contributor. steph, what do we think here? this is pretty horrific news for intel, but spreading beyond that. >> yeah, no, it's really bad. the intel expectations were low heading into the quarter. the stock was 42% year to date. this was a disaster. not only was the quarter a disaster in missing revenues and gross margins, but the guidance, the guidance for gross margins 780 basis points below expectations. i had to take a double take when i saw those numbers yesterday. total revenues $1.4 billion below expectations as well. they are losing market share. they missed the a.i. cycle. it's going to take a long time for their new strategy to take hold. i almost feel like wake me up in 2026 and we'll take a look at it because it will take a really

long time to fix process and bring management inhouse. these things take a long time. unfortunately, it is spreading to the other semiconductor companies. i own lam research. it was down 10% yesterday. i will add to it again today or on monday because i think that memory is still a very important part in a.i. you need six times the memory for a.i. and lam research reported a really good number where they beat and slightly raised. they beat gross margins. i'm using this dislocation to find opportunities elsewhere. >> i think, steph, you can see it. i'm thinking when we have been at these levels before. i get 2011. that's not good for shareholders. you know, the ten-year chart doesn't include a 23 print. >> no.

you know what, joe? since they suspended the dividend, now portfolio managers with a dividend mandate are forced to sell. are you are selling because of the bad fundamentals and now you are selling with the dividend mandate. it's a double whammy. >> it was getting better and better as a stock price. what was it? 1% or something? it wasn't much. >> yeah. it's small, but it's an excuse when you implement dividend. it is an excuse for pmss to tak a look at it. now they have to sell it. >> steph, i don't know if you are in a position to answer this. does this make the investment -- they were part of the chips act. that was something good for intel to produce some things here and new foundrys and things like that. was that a good investment? will the money help them? should the money have gone to a

more viable chip company or competitor? is there anyone else that can do the same thing that intel was going to do domestically? i just wonder, it doesn't look like a great investment. >> it's not a great investment right now. i think by 2030, that they will be better positioned, but why am i waiting now in 2024 for a return in 2030? in the meantime, amd is eating their lunch and nvidia is taking over the world. there are so many other companies out there that are expanding and going to continue to take share. it is just so unclear right now. i usually like when stocks blow up, right? i love to find these kinds of ideas, but they just missed the mark. their server centric data centers -- >> not when you have a huge position. >> true. >> what does this mean? was this a miss on gelsinger's watch?

is this something that started before him and didn't get fixed? >> way before him. >> you will suffer recriminations. >> way before, becky, way before gelsinger. this is on his watch. he could have come in when he came into the company and just restructured and cut massive costs and really take the bull by the horns and he didn't. so, therefore, you know, you have to place blame on him. the strategy was not put in place for anything a.i. many, many years ago which you had to do to actually start to see the gener benefits today. >> stephanie, thank you. stephanie link. we want to get back out to andrew in paris. thanks, becks. offices in silicon valley and

elsewhere play ping pong. here, it's table tennis and it is having a big moment. i joined forces, this is a collab with willie geist from "morning joe." we grabbed paddles under the supervision under rachel sung from team usa. take a look at this. ♪ >> wow. >> incredible. >> almost automated. amazing. guys, that is amazing. >> she plays table tennis. we play ping pong. >> that's right. we're basement heroes. pi ping pong. >> nice.

>> oh! >> ah! >> yes. >> the single most important question is we call it table tennis. we all know in our hearts it's ping pong. how do you feel about that? >> maybe what you are playing is ping pong. ♪ >> nice. >> nice. >> get out of here. >> is that really how you play doubles? >> yeah. ♪ >> oh! >> oh! >> yes! we did it! >> wow! okay. how do you like us now?

♪ >> okay, guys, the most critical thing that we learned, i can't imagine is how much the paddles cost. the professional tennis table paddles. i bought four paddles off amazon. it cost me $24.99 forthe kids, right? the paddle that she plays with costs $500. just so you know, whatever you are playing with is not the right paddle. the paddle actually matters. i'm putting it on the table for everybody. we were in shock. by the way, the paddle is $400 or $500 and the rubber you can replace on both sides. there is a professional league as well. this is not just an olympic game. there is a professional league in the united states. she plays on it and she's going

to be competing here in the next couple days. >> the paddles you probably buy and most people buy, you don't spin it with the two stuff -- the rubber that's on there. you see how they play. there's top spin on every shot. >> the speed was just outrageous. i have to say i think i represented ""squawk" well. i think i could have beaten willie. >> i used to play. i think we should definitely play. you remember brian steel e was good. if you really beat him -- >> i had my moments. i have a better backhand than forehand. it is not like a tennis forehand. you really have to stay in the zone. >> you have the thumb behind. that's not a normal -- you

usually do the overhand. i used to do it differently. you hold it like this. >> they call that the sorkin spin. >> you do it like that. the way the chinese. >> the trademarked approach to holding the handle. we got more coming up here from paris. en.i have paddles, too wh you get so mad, you can break. >> john mcenroe used to break his racket. yes.

welcome back, everybody. exxonmobil just reporting. $2.14 a share. that contributes to $500 mi million. cash flow from operating activities $10.6 billion. you see that stock down by 41 cents right now. that's coming -- let me take a look at the chart here and double check that. that is many doing in a broader market selloff we are watching this morning. it looks like exxonmobil shares are around that range. 116.54. we will speak with the ceo darren woods. we will join us in the next hour with the exclusive interview. we will talk about this and the

hess acquisition and arbitration with chevron trying to make the purchase of hess. we will get to those things with darren woods in the next hour. becky, the biggest stars in paris as the basketball team is set to face puerto rico tomorrow morning at 11:45 a.m. eastern time. joining me from france is adam silver who signed a big streaming deal with our parent company. adam, it's great to see you. this is one of those big moments. i want to understand from your perspective how important the olympics have become to the nba and the global ambition. >> hugely important, but first of youall, will you and willie e out and play hoops? >> i will play. can you play ping pong, too? >> about as well as you do.

>> i feel like you could dunk it on the basketball court. >> i don't know. i don't know. in terms of basketball, the olympics have become hugely important and have been for a long time. we have been an olympic sport since 1936. beyond that, of course, the turning point was barcelona, the dream team in '92. you know, david stern had the vision and truly globalized the game. if you look back to '92, we had roughly 22 or 23 nba players who were participating in the olympics. this olympics with the nba and wnba, we have 140 players who played or have played in one of our leagues currently par participating in, as i understand it, including all 24 teams, men's and women's, there's only one team that

doesn't have a representative of the nba or wnba on it. as you know, you know, basketball will be in lille next week. we're the number one indoor sport of the summer olympics in terms of tickets sold. roughly 1 million tickets. i think the tickets are impossible to get next week in paris. it's just a huge shot in the arm for the sport globally. >> adam, when you think, though, about the usa team, you know, they just beat south sudan after almost losing by a point in the exhibition game. we talked to grant hill about this last week. it almost feels they are destined to win. they have to win. how do you feel about it? is it like watching the all-star game on repeat? how seriously do you think everybody takes this? >> it's unfortunately for me

it's not like the all-star game. they take it incredibly seriously. they understand what it means when they have their country on their chest. it doesn't mean they're unbeatable as i just said. they're largely playing against other nba players and wnba players. usa players are playing against nba players and wnba players. the competition is fantastic. the arena is off my shoulder. they have a 27,000-person soccer arena where they are playing basketball and japan and brazil are playing a close game right now. the quality of the competition is fans partastic. once you get to the medal round, it is single elimination. even our best players say you can always lose one game. if they played a seven-game series, they would be highly unlikely to lose. when it is single elimination,

anything can happen. >> adam, you just signed a deal with nbc universal and amazon. for many years, we talked about the possibility of a streaming deal. doing a deal way streamer. there was always a view there were necessarily enough viewers on a streaming service. what is the inflection point this time around? >> what is interesting is the deal with disney and, of course, your company, comcast universal and amazon. in fact, you can see everybody a streamer. disney was focused on the service they will be launching. essentially espn direct-to-consumer service, of course. comcast has peacock and amazon has amazon prime. those begin with amazon prime, 200 million subscribers globally. well over 100 million in the

united states. peacock has a huge push to grow with sports and espn is, of course, espn. the accessibility and reach services of streaming services exceeds traditional cable and there is broadcast. broadcast television, with nbc, is still critically important. in fact, in this deal, we're going from 15 regular season broadcasts exposures to 75 in the united states. cable's not going anywhere anytime soon. of course, you are cnbc. still 55 million plus people in the united states consumer media through cable. that's going to continue to be important for, you know, years to come. especially for our young fans, the ability to have direct access to our programming and easy accessibility. one thing that was really important to us and all three partners agreed to this is if you were a subscriber, the games

would be accessible through the nba app. we recognize it is not just accessibility, but discovery. we are fans of sports and both live in the new york market. for many sports, you almost have to google them to find where they are because there are many different providers. everybody will figure this out, but navigation becomes critical, too. >> i know you can't talk about the lawsuit that warner bros. brought, but i want to ask you what charles barkley said about this. he said it is -- >> it is a statement that was issued by charles barkley. i don't think it is a fair

comment to say it's just about money. of course, the economics are a component and 50% goes to the player as charles well knows. reach and accessibility and di discoverability is important as well. as i said, particularly for young fans and morphing of all fans to streaming, that was a critical component to the deals and our ability to reach more people through traditional broadcast television. >> one of the other pieces of the deal is the wnba. part of the deal is a specific contract worth $2.2 billion. that is $200 million on average per year. have we reached an inflection point with the wnba and when you think about those economics, how will those changes the next time do you a deal? >> well, first of all, so

there's a wnba component to all these deals, but additional programming deals the wnba can do as well so that $200 million average will end up being significantly higher when we finish the wnba negotiations. i think it is an inflection point. it's going to be roughly a six times increase from their old media deals. still, i recognize a significant differential between the nba and wnba, but just look at the popularity of women's basketball here in france and lille and paris next week. a number of players play in the wnba. lastly, in terms of the inflection point, remember the wnba is in its 20th year. i remember in the early days of the wnba sitting with val akerman and david stern begging for coverage. in those days, the media truly

were the gatekeepers of coverage and the internet just didn't disrupt every industry that you and i can think of, but what it did in terms of sports industry d democritized it in many ways. people can demand what they want. that's the change we're seeing with the internet and amazing job that the wnba and women who play in the league are doing on social media attracting attention to their sport for some people, it seems like it's an overnight sensation with caitlin clark. clark is just blowing up the internet. it is wonderful to see. there's been a strong foundation there for many years and i think the wnba now and women's basketball is just going to continue to grow leaps and bounds. >> adam, we have to run and i

know you have to run. to mix sports metaphors. the milan winter olympics in '26 happened at the same time historically and i know you think about this stuff, as the nba all-star game. the nba all-star game is now going to be an nbc property. what are you going to do about the timing? >> i think somehow we'll work it out with your bosses, andrew. >> i hope you do. i'm sure you will. adam, it is great to see you. we wish team usa a lot of luck. we look forward to seeing you back stateside. good luck the next week with team usa. thanks, adam. >> you know, that's really, really interesting what he said about the democritazation of sports fans. we are seeing that exploding on the scene today. when we come back, we will talk more about the global

market selloff that's taking place this morning. you can see the dow futures off by more than 400 points. s&p futures down 62 and the nasdaq in terms of the percentage, biggest loser this morning down 315 points. this comes after losses yesterday and in tokyo with massive losses, too. plus, an exclusive interview with exxonmobil's darren woods after the company came out with earnings that were better than expected. in the 8:00 hour, the first on cnbc interview with chevron's mike wirth. "squawk box" will be right back. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

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yesterday, the u.s. government announced a massive prisoner exchange with russia and other countries. as part of the deal, the russians freed an american "wall street reporter" evan

gershkovich and one who was inn cars incarcerated. for the past year, eamon javers has been working on a documentary about that individual. he joins us now. hey, eamon. >> good morning, joe. this is the story of one of the most damaging insider trading rings of all time and the fbi and department of justice operation that tracked it down. it is called "putin's trader" and those able to access financial information for scores of american companies and trade on it illegally for years. here's a sneak peek. on march 21st, 2021, an up and come oligark touched gown. they are on the way to the ski

vacation. on the famed resort where the elite go to ski and party. still an hour's drive from the slopes. the truly wealthy take a walk across the tarmac and board helicopters to take them dr driktsly to the is vladislav kliushin. he's built a fabulously successful company, cultivated connections at the highest levels of the russian government and works for the office of the russian president, vladimir putin. but what the oligarch doesn't know is that u.s. law enforcement has been monitoring the flight since it left moscow. and they want to charge him with crimes that go to the heart of the american financial system. the victims are investors and iconic american companies including names on the cutting edge of the u.s. economy like tesla, snapchat, and roku. at stake is the integrity of american capital markets. it is all part of the dangerous underworld of the global

financial system. one veteran russian spy tells me the kremlin sees financial markets as america's strength, and a target to attack. to protect him, we agreed to conceal his identity, but this man, who worked for vladimir putin's intelligence service, says the case of vladislav kliushin was one small part of a much bigger russian operation against finance. his story is just the part that we can see. >> and i want you to take a look at this video yesterday of the russian prisoners being greeted in moscow by vladimir putin. here we can see the very first person that vladislav kliushin sees is the russian president. here is that moment. take a look. he's getting off the plane in moscow, there he is in the tan shirt, and there is the handshake and sort of a bro hug with vladimir putin. so, you can see putin there gathered with all the russians who were released. he's on the left behind the lady with the flowers.

you can watch the full documentary called "putin's trader" now on cnbc.com/putinstraderdoc or scanning the qr code you see on your screen in the lower right-hand corner right now. and, guys, we're going to release a longer podcast on this story called "the crimes of putin's trader" on august 15th. it is a story that is full of twists and turns and it is amazing details in here about the lavish lifestyles of these moscow-based conspirators, sports cars, yacht trips and private jets. back over to you guys. >> you can't have -- i don't know. i'm glad everybody's home, but you can't have a great feeling that we have actual perps over here and happen to be russian and basically someone is trying to do his job over there and becomes a pawn where you're being traded for actual -- >> it makes you wonder -- >> what it looks like is that this guy was -- they snatched people just to offer them for an

exchange, right? >> it makes you wonder if you should ever go over there to russia for business or any reason at all, if you could end up a pawn like that. >> yeah. i wouldn't go. one fun detail, guys, that andrew would appreciate in this, the fbi was able to actually get all the text messages between these russian conspirators as they were running this insider trading scheme and they're complaining about the stocks not going up the way they think they're going up. it is hard to insider trade even when you have the results in advance. they had access to all this in advance. they weren't getting it right every time. what was fascinating is they were texting each other while they were doing this about billions, the show time program, about corrupt wall street traders being chased by american law enforcement. that show co-created by andrew, so, it is sort of a meta moment here while these wall street crooks in real life were texting each other about a fictional version of the same thing, all of which comes back in a weird way to cnbc and your show.

>> what a world. what a meta world. i got to watch your show. i'm very excited and i listen to the podcast as well. >> thank you. here in paris, earlier this morning i spoke with the ceo of l'oreal and asked him how the olympics here in paris are impacting sales. take a listen. >> i think it is going to impact probably sales negatively during in paris during the months of july because all the parisians that normally stay in paris have gone and i'm not sure that -- i think that tourists are more right now into buying sweatshirts with paris 2024 than lipsticks. >> talk about a distraction from things. we're talking about the issue, guys, with amazon, but that's a distraction here in paris, people are going to buy less stuff in certain i ways or different stuff. happier results earlier this week in citing depressed sales in china. i asked him about that market.

>> it is a pretty dynamic performance, which, indeed, is very contrasted between chinese markets, which is slightly declining, so we're hoping for big rebound in china, which is not materializing yet. i think there is a -- still a great issue of consumer confidence in china. so, very positive in the midterm. the rest of the world is fantastic. emerging markets, like mexico, india are growing double digits. europe is growing double digits. and nobody would have believed that a couple of months ago and the u.s. is pretty strong too. so, overall, we see that there is a strong demand for beauty. >> l'oreal invests $1 billion a year, it is an extraordinary amount of money in r&d. research and development. s i asked him about how technology is transforming beauty. >> we spend a lot in r&d to create new molecules, new formulas, the sunscreens you're

using. and we have seen that recently with the explosion, the rise of technology, tech was an incredible way to enhance the efficacy of our products, the capacity of consumers to choose the right products and that's why we have recruited 8,000 techs, scientists, data scientists and this combination of tech data with our own know how is helping beauty in an incredible way. >> we have more of that interview available on cnbc.com. you'll appreciate this, joe in particular might, i was doing my makeup right before the show, we do makeup as you know, and he starts to look at the makeup to see, like, what kind of makeup it is and i'm using mac makeup which is not a l'oreal brand and then, of course, he gave us full instructions on, you know, what the routine is, how you're supposed to do it. you should watch it online. it was very instructive and now i have homework and things i need to go buy. we're not doing it right,

apparently. >> why does he know? he's not on tv. >> you're do it yourself. >> he runs the company. he runs the company. he's got a whole routine. this was actual news you can use. it is on cnbc.com. if you actually -- especially for a guy, if you need to know about all of the skin scuff to do, this was it. >> so skin stuff, not necessarily the makeup. >> no, first you do the skin stuff and then he does -- that's the l'oreal business. it is first the skin, now you clean the skin, moisturizer, and then the suntan lotion, now that he's got one that has both, but he has a specific thing, anyway, and then you do the makeup, but you know me, i'm a water and soap guy. this was a revelation. >> oh, yeah, that's bad. that's bad. >> me too, though. >> you use water and soap too? >> oh, yeah. >> guys. >> and the wash cloth. and not -- >> bingo. bingo. you're not supposed to do any of that, joe. >> no. >> i know.

i know. but i'm too far gone. i'm too far gone. it is too late for me, andrew. >> save yourself. >> even makeup, you know, i can take it or leave it. doesn't really help. i need a surgeon. i don't need makeup. booking holding stock falling now. earnings beat estimates but the company is forecasting slower growth in room nights booked for the current quarter. joining us now, glen fogel, booking holdings ceo and cnbc ceo council member. things are -- this is what i glean from the report, glen. things are still pretty darn good, just maybe not as much as that initial snapback we saw after the pandemic. but everything -- mostly positive numbers, like the 7% number i kept seeing in terms of, you know, the most important metrics for the company, up 7, now down 7 at least. >> yeah. thanks for having me, joe. and i totally agree. i was pretty impressed with how we did last quarter, like the

numbers came in above almost all the estimates we have given the last call. one thing that we keep in line with our estimate was due to the decrease in airline ticket prices, because that brought back our gross bookings. everything else really good. and we did talk a little bit of mild moderation for example, but overall we're very happy with things and we talked -- reaffirming our whole year and even increased our eps for the year. so, we're pleased. >> the -- you mentioned it in passing what may have been, you know, not as good as you would really like because to account for 7% -- it has been a good performer, obviously. now you're back to levels that took three, four months to get up there to, you know, to over 4,000 and one felled swoop. here we are back down 3400 again. that puts it in a lot better perspective there. but there is some disappointment

being expressed today. what is it? >> it is really hard to get into the short-term trader's mindset. >> but you know what it is. you know what it is. yeah. >> i know this, i know that in the long run more people are going to want to travel, they're going to do more travel, we're going to get more share, we're going to do what we have done over the 24 years i've been at this company. i remember back when the stock was, you mentioned going above 4,000, i remember $6 a share when i was first part of this company. so, i'm pleased with the long-term and actually i like it and shthere is going to be short-term volatility and people will come up with reasons why things may not be good this quarter, next quarter. i always stress to the investors, you got to think about the long. >> you mentioned it, that's all i'm asking you to tell us, what did you say, there were some slower -- >> look, there is no doubt that the prices for flights have gone down in certain parts of the world, some consumers are very,

very happy about. that definitely impacted what the total dollar value of our gross bookings is. what is important is not the total dollar value of the travel, it is how much money do we make on it. and that didn't impact the revenue at all. we don't get a lot of money, depending on how much the price of the airline ticket is. we make most of our money in other areas and certainly not on -- we don't have commissions on the flights. so, the flights go up or down, that's not going to be a big factor for the performance of the company. >> you do see the number and it maybe gives people pause. will that be evident in the next quarter, in your outlook? will those same factors be present? >> you know, again, hopefully the investors are not focusing on something that doesn't impact the total amount of cash flow that comes into the company. so i'm not sure how much that really mattered. but i will say, look, we did say mild moderation, and there is no doubt, look, we got a great benefit out of the revenge

travel phenomena, we came out of the pandemic, and there could be a little bit of a pause in some people's mind or not or some concern about certain parts of the world, the economies, et cetera. again, that short-term thinking and i really have to keep stressing the same thing over and over again is in the long run, we have a lot of great talents. >> in the long run, how is a.i. going to -- we talked about that last time we were on. that probably would help in certain areas, just to -- >> absolutely. i mean, we're getting all sorts of benefits a.i. whether it goes to productivity, in terms of making customer service more efficient, or coming up with new ways for travelers to be more efficiently be able to do what they want to do, how they want to do it. and it certainly helps us in terms of the internal productivity because one of the things we talked about last night is making sure that we keep our fixed opex in control. that's something we emphasized last night. that's something we're looking at. a.i. is very helpful to that.

>> seeing across the board certain sectors of the economy maybe more vulnerable to a consumer that is not feeling, you know, that flush, apparently. it is somewhat recent, i would say in the last six weeks or so. we had a sell-off in the overall stock market. yesterday, we're looking at things today, the ten-year, the ten-year note is below 4%. there are some signs. can you see anything at all in either luxury, you know, the high end or the low end of your business that confirms this and we'll get a jobs number later today too. are we in a slowdown? >> we definitely heard people talking about a two-speed economy in the u.s., where people say, at the lower part of the economy, people who are, you know, not doing as well, maybe being more impacted. for our own data, we're not seeing a lot of that. we're very global. we look at our -- we're not

seeing globally a pullback in terms of either star ratings or in terms of length of stay, which are the ones that are usually the canaries in the coal mine, when you start seeing a pullback in travel. and there is some parts of the world where maybe at the lower end there is a little bit of a pullback, but we're very global. i'm not taking too much into that. >> aren't seeing that much. all right. thanks, glenn. >> thank you. >> we'll check in next quarter and see if some of the same trends are there or better or worse, you never know. thank you. andrew? >> thank you, joe. thank you. meantime, it is just a little after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. it is past 1:00 p.m. right here in paris. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. we have a big morning ahead, counting down to the july jobs report in the midst of what is turning out to be a big market sell-off this morning. let's show you where futures stand. we're off close to 400 points on the dow. 393 points.

the nasdaq down another 313 points, 312 points. the s&p 500 off 61 points. all of this, we're watching the bond market with the ten-year yield falling as well. let's show you where things stand there. ten-year note at 3.94. the two-year at 4.124. the ten-year falling below 4%, this is the first time that's happened since february. all this, of course, on the back of some of the news out of europe and concerns about whether -- you mentioned it, joe, are we talk about a recession. i don't know. some of the tech news or tech earnings or the guidance was not great either. i think all that is sort of weighing a little bit on folks' psyche. >> yeah. the muscle memory is there on fridays. first friday of every month, we get an upside surprise, andrew. i'm wondering when that's going to change. how many taimes have we thought we were, you know, able to detect some slowdown and then it

is 230,000. maybe 185 is the estimate today. i think it is always important, but interesting today. the olympics are going on. probably some of the events over there may be more interesting to some people than the jobs report. but it is important. let's get to dom chu, maybe he'll tell us, this morning's premarket movers. i don't know if xander is going to be able to defend. when does that start? has it already started? is he still in? i don't know. >> at this point, i'm hoping the weather holds up. those afternoon thunderstorms, they kind of throw a monkey wrench in the works for the golf events anyway. the markets could, to joe and andrew to your point here, use a little bit of positive news here. we're not going to give you that right now. we're going to look at shipmakers, intel, the dow component is down 21% after reporting lackluster earnings, it also said it would lay off

15% of its employees as part of a $10 billion cost reduction plan. and it lowered its full year capex forecast, suspended its dividend, all kinds of things are weighing. you can see this affecting the entire chips sector overall. you got names like asml down 6.5%. nvidia, micron and broadcom down from 1.5 to 4%. keep an eye on the chip stocks. now shares of apple, which are relative outperformers. the iphonemaker and apps services giant up slightly, a percent or so, after the world's biggest company by market value reported a beat on top and bottom lines. iphone revenues which made up 46% of total sales came in above expectations. but also declined maybe a percent in year over year. investors were looking for some more info on apple's forth coming artificial intelligence systems for its phones. those executives at apple largely declined to discuss the details of the rollout. on balance, you got a stock up 1% and down tape. and we'll end by checking on two earnings movers. we're talking exxonmobil up

1.5%. and chevron which is down half of 1%. exxon was initially down, now is up, and chevron is off by more than 2% at one point and getting some of it back. earnings for chevron came in below estimates due to lower marr margins on product sales. we'll get more on both of those stories, exxonmobil ceo darren woods will join "squawk box" this hour for an exclusive interview to discuss exxonmobil's results and shed some color. and chevron's ceo mike wirth will be on in the 8:00 a.m. hour to talk about those results, so very big oil and gas, joe. i'll send things back over to you guys. >> okay, dom. thanks. that's a very good head shot of mike, isn't it? did you see that? a new one. you need to upgrade everybody, update everybody's. >> including ours. >> yeah. including ours. i like my old one. when we come back, we'll talk big tech and the market sell-off with dan niles.

and later this morning, the ceo of ab inbev on the consumer, slower demand and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. to help you see untapped possibilities

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lot's happened since the last time you were on, and as i recall, you were -- it is definitely not a monolith, even the mag 7 aren't monoliths. how is apple? how is that? let's start with that. >> apple is the favorite of our magnificent 7 partly because they have been the worst of the magnificent 7 over the last three years. if you look at revenue growth, it has been nonexistent. march, the most recent quarter, was actually up 1% in revenues relative to three years ago. it is absolutely pitiful. that's the good news. because they have grown so slowly, i think you're going to see a big upgrade cycle coming because of a.i. going on to iphones. i think you'll see growth go from, you know, that 1% range into the double digit range, and it is the only one where i female feel confident that you're going to see revenue growth grow into next year compared to where it is now.

everybody has an iphone in their pocket and people are excited to try out the new a.i. features. i think it is one of the few consumer oriented tech stocks as well that will do okay, given that it seems like the consumer is slowing down and we're hearing it whether it is at the high end or the low end. >> you've been saying it is too early on a lot of these big tech names. i wish we -- we have been showing that same chart for a long time. would be nice to, you know, go back a ways and see where apple has been and where it has traded. what else, dan? is it too early to buy most of them at this point? >> well, i think you have to be really selective. that's what we have been writing about for over the last month, when stocks are going up, everybody invents what is going to be fantastic ten years from now, regardless of what the estimates are doing. if you look at what the estimates have done on the magnificent 7, the six that have reported so far, with the exception of meta and apple,

where both beat revenues and eps for the june quarter and the four estimates went up, but the other four, they have gone down. that's really what it comes down to, which is you're spending all of this money on a.i., but where is the return? if your estimates are going down, but your spending is going up, that's not the situation you want to be in. so, for us, we're being pretty selective around it. we like meta because, you know, you saw the google results where they had horrible issues with youtube. meta doesn't look like they have any problems at all. and part of that is they're using a.i. very, very effectively to help people engage with the platform by recommending things that they think they will like, and then using a.i. to help monetize the ads they show. so that's why you saw them beat the quarter as well as having forward estimates go up, even though they are spending more on a.i. so, that's another one we like.

we actually bought some nvidia back recently, won't look so good today, obviously. but we think they're the ones that are actually powering all of these companies in terms of their ability to spend more on a.i., and the stock is obviously come back in a lot, and so it is an interesting name, we think they're going to have a beat and raise quarter. i think it is going to be a lot like cisco was in the mid'90s, where you had some horrific sell-offs of over 35% on the way to that stock being up 4,000% over the course of five years. and i think nvidia is going to be roughly similar where you see some horrific sell-offs and then some recoveries. and i think we have got several more years to go before this a.i. buildout is over. but it is not to say you're not going to have periods of digestion just like you saw with cisco, which we have talked about in the past. >> 600 billion, so this will -- this went obviously further than anyone thought. it is going to sell-off and go to new highs? what would new highs look like

for nvidia? what is the market cap at that point? >> i think the stock can double from here. i think -- but i also think that's going to be driven by earnings. revenues can double from here. to put this into perspective, joe, if you go back and look at the internet buildout and say, netscape navigator was really the launch of this thing we know as the internet, that was the end of 1994, from the end of '94 to its ultimate peak in revenues, cisco's revenues went up 15 1/2 times. the stock went up 4,000%. so, now you look at nvidia, and obviously explosive earnings. if you look at the six quarters since we heard about this thing called chatgpt and openai, their revenues are gone up 4.5 times, not 50.5 times, 4.5 times. and the stock has gone up over 600%. but that's not 4,000% either. it doesn't look that expensive when you adjust it for its

growth rate. and relative to cisco back then, which had more loose ends, alcatel and all these competitors, it is really nvidia and it dramatically falls off. >> now a $5 trillion company if it doubles from here. but, you know, we didn't think that would happen to -- should intel come out of the dow at this point? can you tell me what happened? what is likely to happen from here on out? it wasn't one that maybe you were prepared to talk about, but $22. >> yeah, i mean, it is really a sad case, but this goes back to why i say you have to stay on top of stocks. there is no buy and hold stocks. and intel is a great example of that. if you had told anybody five years ago that this was where intel would be today, you know, they would have laughed at you relative to where amd or nvidia is. and you can do that for a lot of tech companies as well. you can go back to apple, which almost went bankrupt in 2000, microsoft had bought 25% of the

company and now look at where apple is today. so, i think with intel, yeah, it is sad to see, but they picked a fight with tsmc. that's pretty tough to do when you're already in a fight with nvidia and amd. and so i think to your point, joe, yeah, you should probably have something different as a representative of the semiconductor. >> dan niles, that's a lot to digest. big numbers and small numbers, i guess. but good to have you on today. thanks. >> thank you, joe. >> okay. when we come back, much more on this market sell-off that is taking place today. but next -- >> okay, when we come back right here on "squawk box," we are going on a crepe call. my favorite thing to eat, crepes. sweet, savory, we're going to rank them one to ten, in our case, three bites. we're coming back right after this.

>> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what was the first city to host the summer olympic games? tus.awbo r when "squk x" rern see that? that's like the gap in my health insurance. gap in your health insurance? yeah, it didn't cover everything when i got hurt. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪) - so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? (♪♪) sofi is helping me get my money right to achieve my ambitions. plus i'm investing in my game. sofi can help fund all your ambitions.

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question. what was the first city to host the summer olympic games? the answer, london. okay, so here in paris, we decided to have a little bit of fun and we visited the neighborhood of mount parnas, home to cafes that were once the favorites of expats including ernest hemingway and f. scott fitzgerald and so many others. but the real reason we checked it out is there are more than a dozen creperies in this neighborhood. we wanted to go on a crepe crawl. my favorite food here in paris, we're going to try lots and lots of crepes. we're in, like, the nirvana of crepes since 1976, this is the crepery breton, best known for a crepe that has duck, apple and goat cheese. this is in the savory category, folks.

mm. wow. we're doing it luike a bourrito. not really tasting the duck. the duck is a little invisible. i'm going with a 7.6. to wash it down, we're having this -- like an apple cider. there is alcohol in here? ♪ thank you, thank you. we'll do it with a hand. i want to do it with my hands. wow. big win all around. i think even possibly healthy. chicken, avocado, i'm feeling like i'm not hurting myself with this one. if i was an athlete going to the olympics, i could eat this. before suiting up. 8.1. 8.1. easily. ♪ so this is the place known for the crepery we all know and

love, banana nutella. how wrong could you go? the crepe ry, this is as sweet s it gets. i could eat five bites or maybe all of the bites. 8.1. this is where we are. check it out. okay, folks. here we go. this is serious. wow. this is called the -- the crepery -- owned by a family, started in 1868. they do double everything. sliced oranges, flambe, it is a sauce, not a crunch situation, obviously sweet, nothing savory about it. wow. the rum is strong. if you got kids, i don't know.

8.6. this is like a separate outtake. they told us to try this. wow. okay. this is bacon, egg, cheese, spinach, what else? >> cream. >> cream. outrageous. i was only supposed to eat four of these things. this is the fifth. and, you know, i thought that was the top, this, because it has a crisp to it, oh, my god, this is like a 9.1. final score. 9.1. this is the winner. same place. different crepe. i got to stop eating. there it is, guys. >> oh, my gosh. >> you can watch it online if you want to find out all the places. >> we saw you right afterwards, we caught up with you right afterwards. i had no idea you actually ate that many. when you said three bites, i thought three little bites. you divided the crepe into three bites so you could eat the whole

thing each time. you must have been so full after t that. >> it is true. there was a lot of eating going on that night. >> i understand now why you were, like, no mas after that. >> what were the two big -- savory and what is the other one? savory and sweet? is that -- >> savory or sweet. do you want it with the egg -- >> meat and cheese. >> or fruit and chocolates. >> or do you want the chocolate nutella with some fruit, exactly. >> caramel nutella. crepe goes well with either, doesn't it? egg and flour. >> the big issue, you probably saw me, there is the fork and knife situation, and then some people just eat it like with the hands. so, it was very hard. i realized with the sweet and -- with the sweet, it is harder to do the sweet with the hands because it is less crunchy. >> i don't think the french would -- that might be, like, pizza with a knife and fork. >> but i was going to ask how

you possibly pulled off just eating a few bites when they were so good. now i get it. your bites were like -- >> he didn't eat, he came and joined us later, we were having dinner. >> i joined you for dinner but i didn't eat dinner because i had already eaten lots of dinner. >> and you couldn't have desserts, since you had the sweet crepes. all right. >> that was a task. >> next time. we'll all do it together. three bites and everybody knows the rules. >> next time we'll do it with you. that looked great. >> all right. yeah. it did look great. i had some crepes at our hotel. the sneeze, no sneeze thing, it was okay. coming up, exxonmobil darren woods joins us after reporting quarterly results. and drinking and brewing giant anheuser-busch inbev michel doukeris and much more. "squawk box" coming right back.

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well, we're kicking off this friday morning and the middle of a global market sell-off after the dow. the s&p 500, the nasdaq and the russell 2000 all closed sharply lower yesterday. down by more than 1% across the

board. all of this coming as we count down to the jobs report for july. less than an hour to go for that number, and ahead of that, the futures are not anticipating a real helpful number at least at this point. we're reacting to a lot of bad news in earnings and also concerns about what is really happening in the underlying economy. you will see the dow futures this morning down by more than 425 points. s&p futures are indicated off by more than 65. and the nasdaq down by 330 points. that is the biggest decliner in terms of percentages. investors look to be digesting some new market narratives, just in the last 24 hours. one where a soft landing for the fed is anything but a guarantee. you got a number of consumer stocks that are kind of feeling the pain here, some red flags that have come from the company's earnings calls and fears that the a.i. trade may have hit a peak. the s&p set to open lower by 1% or more. take a look at the biggest premarket laggards with some of these too.

intel is a story of a horribly disappointing earnings season. right now looks like that stock is down by 21%. it is going to be laying off thousands of people and cutting its dividend or suspending its dividend, i should say. amazon also not getting great reaction from investors after its results last night. it is down by 8.5%. you have booking holdings down by more than 7% and microchip technology down by 6.5%. we're also watching all of this play out in the bond market. ten-year yield falling below 4%. the first time that's happened since february. that happened in yesterday's trading session right now. the ten-year at 3.92% and the two-year barely holding on to 4.1%. up next, we're going to be speaking with exxonmobil's ceo darren woods about the energy markets and quarterly results. that's a rare stock that is actually trading higher today after the company came in with much better than anticipated earnings. and later, chevron ceo mike wirth will be our guest. that company also reporting

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exxonmobil reporting earnings of $2.15 a share. that's much better than the street was expecting. street was looking for $2.01 a

share. the pioneer merger contributing half a billion dollars to earnings in the first two months, post closing, with record production from the permian basin too. that's on revenue of $93.06 billion, that also beat expectations. cash flow from operating activities $10.6 billion and that stock this morning up 1.5%. that is a rare upside mover. in an otherwise sharply down market. joining us to talk about it is darren woods, and, darren, this comes as a surprise to the street, what happened? >> good morning, becky. good to see you. welcome back. actually i think we delivered a very strong earnings, $9.2 billion, far exceeding our competition. second highest second quarterly ra results we have seen in the last ten years and it reflects all the work the organization has been doing over the last seven years to strengthen the earnings power of the corporation. if you look at the oil we produced in the second quarter, it is the highest level we have

produced since exxon and mobil merged. our guyana production and our development from guyana at record highs. as you mentioned, permian was at record highs, which obviously is very important for our company, but it is critically important for the u.s. in terms of providing a very strong foundation for economic growth. and obviously important role for energy security. we saw record high sales in our high margin, high performance chemical products. record high sales in our specialty businesses with our flagship mobil one mobile oil. we're seeing very good strength in the top line, growing the top line, and at the same time we have been taking a lot of structural costs out of the business. we're up to almost $11 billion since 2019. well on track for the $15 billion in structural costs reduction that we're committed to deliver by 2027. so, growing the top line, cutting our costs, opening up a huge margin of value and we're

seeing that reflected in the results. >> yeah, and, darren, that's happening at a time when there are questions about how much demand there is going to be for wti. it has not been trading at the high level as a lot of people had been anticipating. where do you see demand for crude and how does that impact the future earnings for the company? >> yeah, i think people got to keep in mind there is the demand side of the equation and supply side of the equation. and what we're seeing from a demand side is very healthy demand. we saw record oil demand last year, we expect to see another record this year for oil demand. high demand for gasoline and diesel all around the world. so, from a demand standpoint, see a pretty healthy environment. what is keeping prices where they're at today is really the supply that we have seen, the industry has responded very effectively to that demand signal and you're seeing, you know, very healthy production levels on the crude side, and very healthy production levels

from the refining side as well to meet those finished product demands. >> let's talk about production and the pioneer natural resources. as you mentioned, you're getting to record levels in the permian, also in guyana, but you're also looking for capex, i think, to increase about 12%. where does that put capex before, let's say the merger between the two companies, before you bought them? >> maybe real quick on the pioneer acquisition, as we closed may 3rd, i want to recognize the work that the transaction teams did both on the exxonmobil side and on the pioneer side. we closed that deal in six months, the merger that size, you typically see 11-month period, so half the time it takes to close a merger, our delivered on that. record production which hats off to the pioneer organization for that organization to be going through that change and merging with our company at the same time delivering recovered production levels i think is a

real testament to the quality of the people that are joining our organization and we're very happy to have them on. and i would also say that the first few months of working together, it is clear to me that we are going to deliver more synergies than we had anticipated. at the time of the announcement, we said we would deliver about 2 billion on average annually every year. it would take a few years for us to get to that level. frankly my expectations will exceed that. and we'll get it faster and so i think real -- a real positive story there and very excited to kind of realize the benefits of that merger. from a capex standpoint -- >> before we go to capex, are you going to be raising your guidance as a result of those synergies coming in bigger than expected and faster? >> we're going through the plan process now so all the organizations that we build the bottom up corporate plan and review that with the board in october. and early december we're going to review the corporate plan with the street and we're going to have a spotlight in the up

stream. we'll update both the synergy outlook for that transaction and more broadly what we plan to do with the corporation to continue this growth trajectory that we have been on. that will be early in december. >> okay. >> back to capex, we put out a range, we expected at the back end of last year for the exxon side of the equation to be between 23 and $25 billion. with pioneer coming in for what is left in the year, we expect to be another $3 billion. so we'll be at the top end of the exxon -- of our forecasted range last year, $25 billion with 3 on top of that. expect to get through the year with about $28 billion of capital expenditures. >> i guess my question would be is if the synergies are working better than anticipated and if you're still spending the same amount of capex as you had anticipated before, you think that means production is going to be stronger than expected or how does that wash out? >> i think that's what you'll see is as we continue to

leverage the opportunities and synergies between the two companies that we'll make -- have more productive capital spends and my expectations will continue to see that volume growth. right now, based on first two months into the merger, expect to end the year at about 1.2 million barrels a day in the permian operation. but obviously we're early into this thing. i got a very high expectations for that organization and what they can deliver. >> darren, where do things stand with hess and the arbitration that you all are in? chevron is looking to purchase hess. the reason they want to is because of the assets in guyana. that has been an issue of dispute about whether you should be able to get rights of first refusal, i guess. last we heard you were headed to arbitration. where does it stand? >> the arbitration process is proceeding. it is a confidential process, so i'm not going to speak to any details there. chevron and hess put out a disclosure on wednesday and i can confirm the facts of that disclosure, which is we will

have a hearing in late may and then expect to get a decision by september of next year. that is consistent with what i said last quarter when i expected the arbitration process to move into 2025. that looks like that will definitely be the case. >> i think -- i think other people anticipated it might be faster. 2025 perhaps, but not that late into 2025. >> yeah, i think what i'm looking forward to and i think what we'll see is a very thorough review of the issue and i remain extremely confident in the position that we have staked out with respect to that challenge. and look forward to the arbitration panel doing its work, reviewing the facts of the case, and coming to a conclusion here. >> okay. darren. andrew has a question too. >> sure. >> hey, darren, i have a broader question and it is something i think you'll like. i don't know. jamie dimon had a fascinating op-ed in "the washington post" this morning and there is a

sentence in particular that i wanted to ask you about. he says, when our allies are fighting wars to defend their sovereignty and democracies, and desperately need to secure and reliable energy sources, delaying long-term liquid natural gas projects in louisiana and texas is misguided and self-defeating. it is bad for the environment and the economy, and it is bad for our allies. and i thought maybe you could put some meat on the bones on that sentence, which is, what is the actual impact of all of that? >> well, i think the point that jamie makes is the right one, which is while rightly so we're all focused on how we can transition the energy system to a lower carbon energy system, we got to be mindful of the fact that it should be a thoughtful transition that recognizes and balances the other needs and certainly continues to fuel economic growth and help people raise their prosperity. and so you got to strike a balance and frankly that's what

we have been focused on doing, continuing to reduce oil and natural gas along with another portfolio of other products that society needs. but as we do that lower emissions and what you want to stay focused on is not moving oil and gas to wind and solar, but moving from a high carbon intensity energy system to a low carbon energy intensity system. that's the work that we should be focused on and frankly the production and the oversight and the standards that we're holding ourselves to in the u.s., i think positions the u.s. industry as a leader in that space. and we should be leaning on the u.s. and the companies in the u.s. to produce responsibly to continue to meet those existing demands as the world works through the transition and brings in newer technologies. it will be, andrew, exactly what it is called, a transition. not a step change. we should recognize that and approach it thoughtfully. >> darren, thank you for joining

us on this earnings morning. darren woods, the chairman and ceo of exxonmobil. >> thank you, becky. >> okay. when we come back, we're going to be back in paris. the ceo of ab inbev will join us next. and then dave baszucki will talk a.i. and the state of gaming and so much more. we're coming right back after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we are live in paris this morning. the world's largest brewer, ab inbev, serving as the first beer brand in history to sponsor the olympic games. the company reported second quarter results. saw pressure from weakening demand in china, flat sales in the u.s. the ceo of ab inbev joins us and thrilled to have him here on the

program. good morning. >> good morning. thank you for having me. >> we were just talking off-air. markets are down this morning and concern about the consumer. not just in the u.s. but i think globally. i'm curious what you're seeing in the beer market and whether you think the beer market actually is a signal where things are going? >> yeah. so first of all, happy national beer day. >> today, by the way, is international beer day. i did not know this beforehand. what's your beer of choice you'll be drinking today? >> iweiserbudweiser? >> that's your beer. >> yes. and -- >> and no alcohol in it? >> no alcohol. >> wearing an aura ring. how's your sleep when drinking the beer? >> it's good. >> you notice a difference? >> good exercising in the morning. a lot of work. time to see family, sleep. >> what are you seeing, back to the consumer? >> so we just closed results yesterday, as you know. so we were encouraged by the

results itself and by the global momentum for business and the beer, beer is growing globally. we grew 65% of our operations. we continue to invest in our brands, and our brands, they are leading growth for us globally. our mega brands, and we have leadership advantage in markets that they help us in balancing well consumer purchase power, revenue management and how we -- >> what's going on on the demand side and volume side? volumes down in china in particular. >> so beer growing locally, we grew in majority of our markets. we had this quarter specifically china weaker demand. argentina with weaker demand very strong growth across south

america, africa, so volume doing well. double digit growth, our eps, 25%. i like to say that we have a resilient strategy, just like beer works well for all occasions. >> what's the pricing power piece, though? the other question mark over the whole consumer retail world is how much pricing pressure everyone has given inflation? >> so beer industry traditionally, prices of inflation, and even in the best period where we saw soaring costs, a lot of companies pricing of both inflation, we tend to price inflation long term. we took some hit on the margins. >> right. >> on behalf of consumers, because we want to keep penetration and balance well, purchase power and penetration of the category. now we are, costs more in our site. we grew margins in all five regions that we have, and we

continue to price with inflation. >> one of the reasons you're here in paris, you are now at olympic sponsor. first time you've done this and the first time a beermaker or alcohol company has been a sponsor of the olympics. how did that come about? >> so we are with sports globally across all markets from nfl in the u.s. to fifa with soccer and many, many other links across the globe. mlb, so it was just natural that we went, the opportunity would present itself to get a shot at the olympics. beer and sports go very well together. >> right. >> this is the largest sport event globally, and we got this incredible opportunity to partner with the international olympic committee, and we are activating across the globe, not only global sponsorship, but we also support, for example, the u.s. team. >> right. >> with michelob ultra in the

u.s. we have the west in-house here in paris. take a look. it's beautiful. michelob ultra bar. we're very happy. sports and beer go together. >> so the controversy hasn't gone away completely. the bud light situation. by the way, interesting controversies here even at the olympics. opening ceremonies people had issued with. the boxing which just took place yesterday. i don't know if you followed what was happening there. how much is that continuing to pressure sales and what do you still have to do about it? >> so maybe if you take a step back, like, why last year was a good year for the company overall was a very tough year for our teams in the u.s. and i'm super proud the way that they answered to this situation. while we continue to reinforce the work we do for the community. the support for our partners in the u.s. from, again, nfl, wnba,

and first responders, we kept job support in the u.s., support and you saw results yesterday. flattish market share. very good momentum, michelob ultra, busch and other brands and 17% -- >> when's the turn, though? how much work still has to be done, though, to get those customers back? >> we don't give any guidance moving forward. dealing with the situation, we say, we look at the facts. and the fact now is bud light consumer penetration, stable. a lot of the indicators are the brand is recovering. good momentum behind the portfolio. so we have offers from premium to value. there is a lot of talk now consumers looking for value. busch light, top three growing in the u.s. and investing for the long term at usual. >> thank you for being here. >> thank you for having us.

>> becky, back to you. >> thank you. roblox tumbling despite earnings coming in ahead of expectations. part of the reason, departure of the company's cfo. we will hear from the ceo right after this. that stock, down by 1.5%. heading to break, check on futures ahead of the july jobs report. right now dow futures off by 350. nasdaq indicated down by 360. s&p futures down by 67. we have much more on the market sell-off this morning. that is straight ahead. "squawk box" will be right back. energy fuels, a leading american uranium producer, is ramping up production to supply expanding nuclear markets and diversifying into rare earth elements, key ingredients in many clean energy and defense technologies.

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coast. you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. andrew is still in paris. a lot of stuff coming from there. market sell-off continuing around the globe. dow off 350 points. same story for the nasdaq. treasury market seeing yields coming in sharply. the ten year yielding below 4%. that happened in yesterday's session. staying there. that's the first time that's happened since beginning of the

year. right now ten year at 3.94 percent. two year at 412. joe? >> 30 minutes know about the jobs. dom chu with a look at the morning's movers. >> joe, becky, andrew, ahead of the big job numbers kick things off with movers check on chipmakers. especially intel. dow component down about 23% after reporting lackluster earnings. also said it would lay off over 15% of employees as part of a $10 billion cost reduction plan and also lowered full year capex forecast and suspended dividend. get the idea why the negativity is there. you can see it weighing on the entire chip sector overall. names like aslm and broadcom and others moving lower tied to this news. later on today, interview with intel ceo pat gelsinger. more idea and color what's happening at that chip giant.

what's happening with exxon mobil. chevron as well. i know mike wirth will join "squawk box" in a few minutes, but exxon now up by more than 1% after reporting a beat on both top and bottom line. profit up 17%. driven in part by its merger with pioneer natural resources. the company saw highest oil production since the exxon mobil merger more than 25 years ago. chevron, by the way, so we know, also moving after an earnings miss. end on snap, though. those shares plunging by 18.5% after the social media company guidance came in short of expectations. earnings roughly in line. revenues short of analysts estimates. snap tends to be volatile we know after earnings reports. averages up or down move around 20% after results are reported. a tough year for that stock. lost almost 39% here so far year-to-date. keep an eye on those names. andrew, send things back to you in paris. >> thanks, dom.

meantime, roblox reported better than expected results. took place yesterday citing a record number of users and engagers on the program. stock falling, the cfo mike guthrie, stepping down after six years in that role. joining us now to discuss results and more, roblox ceo dave baszucki. great to see you from paris. like we're doing this virtually inside of roblox of sorts. i want to talk about the earnings, billions want to talk a little bit about mike's departure. seems to be a lot of questions you see it weighing on the stock today. of course, as i said, after better than expected results. i'm sure you're surprised. >> hey, andrew, first, i'm thinking, we need to be an olympic sponsor. i should be there with you in 2028. i think i got my signals crossed. we had the biggest record quarter we have ever seen. everything's growing north of 20%, as you've seen. our revenue is growing over 30%.

a couple fun facts for our community out there to kind of extrapolate to the future. biggest future segment for us over 13-year-olds growing at 26%, and we talked about reall f free cash flow, and, hey, mike, what an awesome cfo. working together six years. we thought it best to go public, do this secession publicly as mike moves on to other things. all good on that front as well. >> dave, though, can you speak to this. this is benchmark analyst mike hickey in the "journal." he said, anytime a cfo exits it

creates uncertainty for investors. when a business is good and cfo leaves, it's like, why now? is there something we don't know? >> yeah. really isn't. we're strongest we've ever been and mike has a lot of things he wants to do. i wouldsay that's an analyst interpretation, but once again, highlighting on some of the strength of the quarter. we're seeing a content explosion on the platform, really, right now. we've got over 20 experiences with more than a million daily active players. if you can believe it. i just saw your prior guest talking about fifa and their sponsorship. fifa's on roblox as well right now. their property has gotten over 20% increase in 18 and up players over the last 90 days. hey, and i wsish i was there wih you physically.

we're doing a virtual event on our platform right now called "the games. 50 roblox and 50 influencers really mimicking virtually all the awesome sports properties on our platform. we've never been stronger and the biggest ever been in a record quarter. >> by the way, this is the partnership you're doing, olympics with visa? >> visa, we have many partnerships. visa is doing an awesome partnership with us. they held a concert as well on the property. it's a little indication of the future of brands coming to our property as well. and grants are coming to roblox just like they used to do with print. just like they used to do with video as a way to connect with their fans, and so, yeah. we welcome visa and at olympics to roblox. >> two final quick questions. snap earning advertising front down. at least expectation was less

than people expected. you guys are selling ads, billboards now, video billboards ads inside of roblox. what are you seeing? >> well, hey, ads are new on our platform. i think what the quarter is showing a roblox grows north of 20% on just the raw foundation as we grow towards a billion daily active users, and then ads is awesome on top of that, and is really added to, we're selling video now in experience. we are partnering with brands like visa, who are really offering a new form of immersive advertising, which has come to a 3d experience, and experience it. >> finally, quick. louisiana tech, utah as its parental consent to enter into contract agreements which means starting an account if you're less than 18 years old. how is has going to change or affect your business? >> yeah. generally roblox has been so far

ahead of this, given the focus we do on safety and civility. an example. california age-appropriate design code. we came out and supported that, because we're doing much of what it really talked about already on the platform. so we're generally supportive of legislation to help keep kids safe. we'll adjust and work around all of the state laws. generally, though, we're very optimistic about the growth of all ages on our platform. >> dave baszucki, a/k/a, builder man, for those, if you know, you know. thank you. appreciate it. >> see you in 2028 in-person andrew. take care. >> see you inside roblox in between then. coming up, the july jobs report. that is on track, coming at 8:30. we'll bring you the data and the market reaction. first, though, first on cnbc with chevron ceo mike wirth on that company's second quarr.te

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all right. welcome back, everyone. chevron reporting mixed second quarter results earlier this morning. revenue beating expectations,

but the company says that earnings fell versus a year ago in part because of lower margins on refined product sales. other items in the mix there, too. stock right now down by just over $1. joining us right now is chevron's chairman and ceo mike wirth. mike, thanks for taking time to talk with us this morning. what did you see in the quarter? >> good morning, becky. good to be here. it was a quarter that i think was probably a little light versus what wall street expected. a hard one for them necessarily to forecast. we had higher maintenance, which reduced volumes. refining margins off hard in some markets and one-time items that are pretty tough to forecast like well write-offs and tax items. so underneath that, the execution is strong. our growth remains on track. we have really strong production and superior shareholder distributions. first half of this year, record production in the permian. our u.s. production up 17%. first half of this year, versus

first half of last year. and distributions to shareholders are over $50 become thebecome -- billion over $280 billion. substantial steady return of cash to shareholders and on the path to deliver growth in the permian, golf of mexico, c kazakhstan and deliver a free cash flow and growth rate more than 10% over the next three years and hess will enhance that. underlying execution is strong. growth is strong and we're very positive about the future. >> okay. you pointed to hess as being something that's going to help you throughout, but there have been questions about whether that's going to be allowed to go through or at least whether the guyana properties will be something you'll be able to akwai because of that. of course, the reason you're doing it. where to things stand right now? what's the timeline and what are

you telling investors what to expect? >> we're moving through the approval process with the ftc. which is, you know, making good progress and looks like it will close probably in the end, by the end of the third quarter, although with government agencies these things aren't always easy to predict. on the dispute relative to this contract in guyana, there's now been a date set for an arbitration hearing that will occur next year. and we continue to believe it's a pretty straightforward case. it's a contract interpretation of language in a confidential agreement and we're confident that that process will affirm our interpretation of the contract. so this is taking a little more work and a little more time than we initially anticipated, but in the fullness of time, this is going to be a great acquisition for our company and we look forward to integrating with hess and believe this will create

value for shareholders for decades to come. >> mike, darren woods was just on earlier this morning and he's pretty confident that exxon's view is going to be the one that wins the day with arbitration. there's a lot riding on this. what happens if the arbiters don't come down on your side and you can't go ahead with this acquisition? >> well, we have indicated that there's a closing condition in the agreement that relates to this, and if -- if that were to be the outcome of the arbitration, the transaction wouldn't necessarily close. we think that's a low likelihood, and underneath the hess transaction as i said, we have strong organic growth under way across a number of our businesses. free cash flow growing very strongly with a strong balance sheet and record distributions to shareholders happening. so that's all the base case and as i said, the hess transaction

makes it even stronger. so we feel confident in the outcome on the arbitration, but our hand is very strong, you know, in the base case as well. >> that deal that has merger agreement terminates end of april, i believe. what happens if the arbitration hasn't been settled by then? >> the actual long stop date on that is out past the end of april. it's towards the end of 2025. >> oh, okay. >> a long time that runs on the merger agreement itself. >> let's talk a little bit about some more news you have out this morning, and that is the fact that you are moving your headquarters from california, where that company has been based for, what is it? over 1 -- 130 years at this point? >> 145 years. >> 145 years. moving from california to texas. what happened? >> well, we've got a proud history in california. it's been our home, you know, we started out in 1879 in pico canyon, known for much of our

history standard of california and have big businesses here that will continue with important customers, and employees that we're very proud of and do a great job. houston is the epicenter of our industry. and it's where our partner. it's where's suppliers are. it's where our key vendors are, and the universities we hire from. and actually most of our employees are now in texas. so we've had our headquarters gradually growing in texas, and gradually pulling down in california. this is a continuation of a trend that has been under way for some time. we'll get everybody together and i think it will improve the pace of decision-making. degree of engagement both internally and externally and it's really the right place for our headquarters to be. our businesses in california will remain there and hundreds of employees will support those businesses and thousands of employees that work in the field in those businesses still in california. >> mike, you've been pretty

vocal about some of the issues you've had concerning policies coming out of california, and where you've run into issues you think have been really bad for your business. how much of this decision is based on that? >> yeah. the move really isn't a dispute over policies or politics. it's what i, what i describe in terms of what it takes for us to compete in a global business. that said, you know, we do have policy differences with the state. and we've been very clear that we think policies that raise costs, that put supply reliability at risk hurt consumers, put the economy at risk. california is discouraging investment in the energy that runs its economy. we don't think that's sound policy. we think that is policy that raises costs for average consumers, and we think it's a policy that doesn't serve the state very well. so we'll continue to speak out on that, but that's nothing new, and that's not the driver for

our -- >> did you do a cost benefit analysis, mike? your cfo? do you have an idea cents per share you could benbenefit, acc to the company if you moved? you must have an idea. >> joe, we look at cost benefit analysis on lots of things. translating a headquarters location move to a share price is tricky and in markets that tend to -- >> how much money do you think you could save? how about an overall number? is it millions? >> look, it's a state that offers a very business-friendly environment. i spoke to governor abbott about this yesterday, and policies that create affordable housing good schools. safe streets. good education system. they encourage businesses to come there, and we certainly support, you know, a healthy economy and an environment that

encourages investments, and we look forward to being -- >> california has a problem, mike. not even talking about you and your company. just talking about in general, because you're not the first, not the first one. and -- i mean, what -- you agree? >> it's not the first, joe. >> and won't be the last. that is a problem california has. they need to change. they need -- change is hard. i guess first they have to -- admit there's a problem. that's the first step towards, towards finally taking care of stuff like that, i think, mike, but obviously, it's happening. >> we want to continue to invest in providing reliable, affordable energy to california and intend to do so and we will work with policymakers in sacramento to try to craft good energy and economic policy for the state. >> mike wirth. chairman and ceo of chevron. mike, thanks a lot for joining us. >> you bet, becky. good to see you. >> you, too. right back over to andrew.

>> thanks, becky. meantime here in paris summer olympics jammed with athletes, also with leaders in sports, business and entertainment. joining us now a man at the intersection of all three. co-founder of 35 ventures and boardrooms and kevin durand's long-time manager. playing for team usa's game tomorrow against puerto rico and had a great game just, earlier this week. >> yes. >> just it got off the plane. >> right off the plane right to see you. >> so many things to talk about. actually your reaction. talked to adam silver earlier today. talking about the streaming deal sort of the talk of the town. streaming deal. shouldn't say streaming deal. nbc, disney and then amazon, and what's going to happen to warner brothers. he didn't, of course, want to talk about the lawsuit itself but he did sort of comment on charles barkley's comment on all of this. were you surprised that tnt got sort of pushed to the curb? >> well, again, similar to adam, i don't want to talk about that

side of it. what i do think is exciting is just what the value on nba rights you now and what the demand is. to see that schedule outline and theying you can watch an nba game now seven day as week and what they're making around the in-season tournament and make around the in-season tournament, how each one of those things are becoming an event in its own right. it's really exciting. >> what do you make of the total number? i mean, the package is -- >> it's staggering. >> 11 years. >> yeah. staggering. but it's not surprising. it's in line with what you see in terms of valuations of sports teams, with the price people are paying for them and when you see other leagues getting the numbers that they're starting to get i think it was on par and appropriate. >> do you think, though, everybody always said are we the top? the top? are we the top? i mean, do you look out and say to yourself, this makes sense? >> you know why it makes sense to me? what else can universally galvanize people? politics the most divided thing

there is. sports is probably the only universal thing that still is live and we can all rally around. i think the price for that is obvious, when you see what the numbers are. >> how valuable be the olympics, in your mind to for example, popularity of kevin durant around the grob right now? >> it's different. happens every four year. all of a sudden you see faces, sha'carri richardson and others you don't see throughout the four-year period. we can all feel how exciting these olympics are. i think the ratings for the usa game on sunday, at 11:30 a.m. same as an nba playoff game. i can just feel the excitement in what's happening in the social zeitgeist around the olympics. >> investing in lots of other different sports arenas. we had alexis oh hanian on earlr this week. long-time sprinter on. both of them in their own ways trying to create new leagues. what you see at the olympics

isn't something you see every four years but something you see almost like tennis. see grand slams around the world. how far can all of these sports get extended, or not? >> well, i don't think all of them can compete with the numbers like you mentioned around the nba, or the nfl, but what all of them can be are viable businesses. i think you know me very well. invested in pickleball, in la crosse league. i'm bullish on all of those. the business model has to be relative to the sport and audience but there's a business around all of them. >> can you tell us what you think will happen? talk to durant. curious. snoop dogg spending time with that whole team, i know. how much pressure is on them? is this for them, like, the all-star weekend? they're just all relaxing and this is easy or not really? we saw what happened when they were playing it easy with south sudan first time? >> no. i just came from the lobby of team usa and saw half the team there and it feels like the same

type of energy around a playoff series. you see everyone in the lobby of a hotel on the road. this is not an all-star weekend. i think it's enjoyable and i think they understand the magnitude of the situation, but there is pressure. there's pressure on everyone here at the olympics to win. obviously they're the best in the world and most global superstars that are here. >> quick, boardroom just announced, something called boardroom enterprising eight. a cover story looking at the athletes you think will make the most money? is that what you're thinking about? >> not the most money. think what's happening in sports business the last 20 years on the heels of michael jordan retiring, seeing the business lebron and serena built, paying tribute to who we think the nnekd next. >> alcaraz, coco gauff, vickvik >> angel reese. caitlin clark. a lot of names left off.

but the ones we chose. it's an exciting time for young sports business minds. >> we got to guess jobs number in a minute. we have a partnership. >> yes, we do. >> with cnbc. reminder to tell everybody about. cnbc boardroom something called game plan. a big conference doing on september 10th in l.a. >> yes. >> single person you're most excited about? >> just excited. rich paul is coming, kevin durant. commissioner of major league baseball rob manfred. entire panel on gam belonging, fanatics and l.a. sparks, bob myers there and a handful of more name awe'll announce soon. how great was last year? >> awesome. and getting better. >> september 10ble, game plan. love it. when we come back right here from paris. number of the morning back he,om july jobs report is next when

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it's time to get away and cash in at cache creek casino resort. to rock and to roll. to go all out or go all in with four stars and rising stars. northern california's premier casino resort is the perfect place to do as much... or as little as you want. make your getaway now and cache in at cache creek casino resort. introducing togo's new barbecue beef sandwich. it's piled high with tender beef that's slow cooked and smothered in tangy memphis style barbecue sauce. it's no fuss, no muss. just tons of flavor. the best barbecue beef is only a togo's. try one today. we're approaching the july jobs report. get to our panel after the number, but let's introduce everyone. national urban league president and ceo, and our own rick

santelli and sarah. not to be left out lower right steve liesman. i think, steve, 185 is the estimate. you've got the under or over, steve? got two seconds. >> i have the under, joe. i think the consensus has actually come down. >> get to it. time for the july jobs report. over keeps coming in. >> under wins for the july jobs, jobs, jobs report. non-farm payrolls comes in at 114,000. 114,000. of course that is the lightest level back to minus 243,000, which was dec of 2020 in the pandemi pandemic-affected months. unemployment rate moved up to 4.3. moved up to 4.3. that is the warmest it's been

since october of '21. october of '21. and if we look at revisions, i should bring that up. rather quickly. we see that last month's non-farm move from 206,000 down to 179,000. now, let's look at average hourly earnings. month over month. up 0.2. 0.1 lighter than both rearview mirror and windshield. look at up 0.2 that is the lightest, equals, it equals april. have to go to february to find a smaller number when it was up 0.1. take a macro and go year over year on hourly earnings also coming in light. 3.6. 3.6. 3.7 was expected. 3.9 in the rearview mirror becomes 3.8. 3.6 going into the way-back machine. you have to go all the way back to may of '21 when it was 2.3. so a big drop there. weekly -- average week workweek, for all employees comes in at

34.2. also we lost 0.1 there. shortened it a little bit. 34.2 equals where we started the year out in january. finding a smaller workweek, go to march of 2020, when it was 34 right on the nose. now let's look at the participation rate. this is always important. and good news here. we're expanding. pulling more in. 62.7. that equals where we were in april to find a higher number go to november of last year at 62.8. and finally, u3. 4.3. u -- 7.8. huge jump from 7.4. have to go in the way-back machine sheer. 7.8 high ef underemployment rate u6 since 8.1 in october of '21. we see that weak data joining other weak data pushing yields

down. what is notable here, this is big time. 379 out of tempten year. moves into the black joining our maturities. two year closed 4.25 last year and of course trading right now at 387. just to show you how huge these moves are, gang. 3.86 in a two year closed at 4.38 last week. ten year at 3.78, 3.79. closed at 4.19 last week. so you can see these are historic rate drops, and they do portend the easing cycle that may be built in for factors that seem to be all about weakness. joe, back to you. >> great. rick, thanks. for more get to our panel with mark and sarah, but first i want to let steve start a little bit. it's impossible always to figure out what the stock market's

going to do although we see the initial reaction. unmistakable reaction in the bond market started yesterday or the -- actually before then. really picked up speed recently as we got under four. there's no doubt on how bonds are taking this news, steve. >> yeah. i'm very -- joe, first thing i looked at here, how the fed funds market reacted. we went into this, just -- set the table. a few days ago, no chance of a basis point rate cut in september. we went into this with a 30%, and i don't know if this is right or real or whatever. as rick points out, this market can be very wrong. it can also be very right. a 72% chance right now with the basis points, cuts in september. where the market is priced. >> 50 earlier today. >> i caution -- >> only -- >> acaution. >> went from five or six to one to two.

how do you get back to five or six when it's already getting towards, time is -- when you can get to five or six, and 50. one of them? >> do it quickly. now looking at the january '25 contract, joe. at 4.13. so if you want to do the math on that. is that 120 basis points of easing? 125? >> see? >> that is five right there? let me just very quickly. i want to get to the -- i know you want to get to the panel. quickly. i think the story i'm seeing here, and i've just glanced at it briefly. i think the story on the economy right now is not that there's a lot of firing or job loss going on. there's not a lot of hiring. this is a weak report. when it comes to hiring. as you get down to what used to be a pretty normal level. 114. we'd be pretty happy with. a lot of the strength looks to be in the place we had it.

education and health. i want to see the government number. plus 17. off a little bit. when i look at it, joe, i don't see big negatives and i don't see any big positives. i think we're at this phase right now where the catch-up hiring especially in the health and education sector, and in the government sector, that at least in the month of july has come to an end. taking if a bit with a grain of salt. only a single report but indeed a weak report. >> sarah, i promise i'll get to you. interested to talk to mark. i don't expect you to, to talk like a, like an economist and give me, you know, get in the weeds. i want the big picture from you on this, and i'm not saying you speak for, for the biden administration or for the vice president, but what, what's would the administration want right now? an environment where they definitely get cuts and points and says it's political at the fed? but do they want an economy that

needs big cuts? i mean that could be problematic. >> a couple of things, and thank you for having me. one think i think we've learned, you can't overinterpret one month of jobs data. so while the jobs data is down, the growth rate in the second quarter was almost 3%. so i think the question is, is this the beginning of a trend? number two. the question also is, whether the fed should have acted sooner to, if you will, reduce interest rates, understanding that the trend line for inflation was going down, and revised numbers last month were a bit lower. so i called last week when in new orleans as a national conference with chair powell to reduce the rates and signal. here's where powell is. to signal to the markets and to

main street that the fed is going to begin reducing the rates on a consistent basis. they have the power to stimulate this economy. the third point is, whenever we're in an election cycle, there's a sense of uncertainty, and people are being cautious, because they don't know what the outcome may be, or what the policies may be. so that's an underlying factor in this. bottom line is, interpret the numbers but not over interpret then because it's one month and we've seen months down before over the last three years, and then they bounce back in the next month. the fed has the power and i am concerned that they may have waited and been too cautious. should have cut rates a little earlier. >> what do you think, sarah? you have the floor. >> thanks, joe. i think this is a make or break number for the markets this week. investors are already on edge, because they're afraid the fed is is not going to cut rates in

time to avoid recession. the number adds fuel to that fire and two other factors making investors very nervous about the economy. underwhelming earnings and weak inferring data with ism yesterday. talk about a couple unusual data points we might be more optimistic about. first of all wage inflation looks promising. inflation is going in the right direction. also the unusual factor of hurricane beryl may have im impacted this number dragging it lower. which may mean somewhat of a one-time data point. important also for investors, rate cuts are coming. yields are plummeting. that cash still sitting on the sidelines, need to think about moving back into the markets. that's looking at fixed income, should look promises here with these rate cuts coming. lock in yields for that that are attractive. investors need to think about stronger returns now that the return on cash is going to continue to deteriorate. >> rick, i'll just -- if you were, you know, a fed hater or someone who's cynical, you can just hear it. it's like, they have no way, no

better than any of us as looking into the future. awe they ever do is look at the past. so if they stayed too long at zero, didn't see inflation coming, why would we expect them to be able to tell whether a recession was imminent and they were going to stay too long the other way? but i don't any you think they stayed too long. do you? >> no. i absolute do not. i don't think they stayed too long. i think you keep rates near zero with zombie companies and funding going to every section of society. it's natural. need to be higher longer. doesn't mean may not be room for easing. the way i present it now, joe. twos to tens right now. minus ten. ten basis points apart. what does that tell me? it tells me all of my friends who thought that long rates would be more stubborn in terms of not able to go down as fast, because they were looking at

things like debt and deficit, and potentially two different candidates for president. neither of which seems to have any rationale or plan to lower spending or try to bring some of these huge deficits down. so when i see that, the long end is still moving in a different sort of fashion. that tells me that there's a stagflationary whiff here. people might be rolling their eyes. look at it for what it is. we are probably going to settle out somewhere between 2.5 and 3% on inflation. i think growth, i think growth is going to continue to slow down. so we're going to have a form of stagflation. no, not double digit, but it's not going to be pretty. i think it's going to linger for a while, and i think like europe. there's going to be bouncing around in some of these inflation numbers, and i'll go back to square one. this winter, the summer, energy, a.i., ultimately what is going to be the sticking point and continue to fuel some inflationary pressures is

energy. and how much it costs. whether it's gasoline, natural gas, and, by the way, when was the last time you heard anybody talking about pv moving any deadlines closer. nothing but crickets. planning, waserroneous and that price will linger quite a while. >> other months revised, too, and the reason we have -- we've cried wolf so many times on seeing signs of slowness and then only to be, you know, get a really solid jobs number. some other indicator. this one, you said under. you said it would be under, but we finally arrived, i think. right? >> well, see, i want to take the cheeseburger bet with rick on stagflation here, joe. i think if the market is

correctly pricing what looks to be either a recession or a very, very strong move by the federal reserve here, in the face of weak economic growth. i think you're going to get a sharp drop in inflation here. you may get what rick was talking about. the stag there, but i just don't think you're going to get the inflation numbers. there's been a lot of criticism this week of powell and powell perhaps staying too long and maybe should have moved sooner here, but i just don't think you're going to get continued 2.5 to 3. i think you'll get a down draft in inflation numbers. joe, you're right. there has been a decline. i think the key here is right now we're at this 114 level. it's what you would be fairly happy about in the past. but now we're in this postpandemic world. people have come to expect 200 as a new benchmark. i'm not ready yet to call -- i don't want to be kevin bacon and say all is well, all is well, but just would point out that

the gdp numbers and, there's still a lot of inforeto come for the third quarter still running above 2.5%. i guess there's reason for caution on the outlook for the economy. i'm not quite sure we're at the point there's reason for panic. >> okay. animal house. >> i was going to say. didn't get the reference. >> food fight. kevin bacon. >> i was going to say, joe, before we leave. i was going to say the message to the fed is, the gretzky line. skate to where the puck is going. not to where the puck is. i think that's an important factor in how the fed should think about the interest rates and where they you know, when they cut it. i think this is why you can't wait until "you get to the benchmark." you have to see the trends and move in that direction. they've got to cut rates and signal. they have the power to strengthen the economy. they had it, and i urge them to

use it. >> we just don't know. i love jay powell, but, he's a really good guy. i don't know if we'll end up where we call him the greatest, like gretzky the greatest. something like -- and that's what you need to know where the puck's going. the other side of the ice, puckal over there. you know, i don't -- we won't know. i mean, we have greenspan and we have, who's that other guy? who was it? who's the worst in history? >> arthur burns. >> i thought montgomery burns. thank you, to everyone. marc and saira, sorry we can't get more. steve and rick. next time. joining us in studio,judy shelton senior fellow at independent institute. new book "good is gold" coming out in october. you're not, just from the book, not saying return the gold standard. saying return to an idea where we want just a solid currency that isn't, the fed every other

week shouldn't be, shouldn't be something that controls whether -- you know, fluctuations in global currencies. >> that's so well stated. i wish i'd put that on the jacket cover. >> i would have written one for the back. yeah. >> what it's about. >> a joe movement. >> we need dependable money. yes. >> yeah. one of the points. we can say, waited too long. took too long. it took too long. why are we talking so much ar the fed anyway? why is our entire economic future based on what these people think and how they, you know, control overnight repos? it ought to be the private sector. income does exactly what it does well. fed there to try to help in any way it can with the private sector and not help the government? >> absolutely. i think the fed is too powerful, too prominent in financial markets. too political. can channel financial rewards to one segment of society at the

expense of others, and we shouldn't be obsessed with the fed. we talk about solve landing. the fed shouldn't be the pilot. they really should be the ground crew. make sure the runway is solid and safe. >> how would that work? somebody else in charge or just a rules-based body, that you can't do things unless x, y and z line up? >> a rules-based approach would be a big improvement. irony for me is that most of the people who are most concerned about politicizing the fed and you want to preserve the independence, are the most critical of having any kind of rules-based approach. they want to leave it all to the discretion of 12 voting members who meet 8 time as year to decide, what is the cost of capital? argue bly the most important price in an economy devoted to free markets and capitalist endeavor. yet i would think even from the soviet experiment that we should have learned central planning

doesn't work. but when it comes to determining that price we fix it, and we haven't accomplished, through a government agency, that seeks to manage the interest rate instead of letting marx forces determine it through supply and demand. >> and can err on both sides. rick, i think, is till of the opinion the dye was already cast, two, three, four, five years ago where all assets. no one knew how to price anything because we were in zeros and no one knew the cost of money. so what -- you know, we were already going to be in this position. this conundrum we're in right now three, four years ago. we were, you know, sort of setting the table for this mess we're in right now because we may have stayed too long? do you think we stayed too long? is it too restrictive? >> by saying it's restrictive, we're already suggesting that there really is a different real rate that the market would set. and that the fed is deliberately

keeping rates artificially high. >> stop with it? >> one thing we know is when you distort the markets so much by having a zero interest rate, you cause all kinds of malinvestment. you don't allow price signals to appropriate effectively. so you don't know how to add capital flow to its optimal use and it's clear we needed to come up from that and that does feed inflation, but i think i would have quit at 4.25, 4.5%. where we were back in december of 2022. and then let the market sort it out. the fed should rely more on open market operations. that would kill two birds with one stone, because they should be reducing their footprint in financial markets. should be selling off the portfolio. >> advantageous for banks to act certain ways at the expense of -- >> what they do now, the fed's main tool, unlike when paul

voelker was the chairman, a perverse incentive. they are paying this high rate. 5.4%, to commercial banks, to keep the money sitting there stagnant. this is like paying farmers not to grow crop its or paying peop not to >> we've done those things before too. >> and i think it violates -- it not only discourages entrepreneurial endeavor, but i just think that it -- it's sort of -- you do interest rates by dictate. they should decide the cost of capital. we're seeing that federal reserve officials are not omniscient and i think that panics the market a little bit. >> the one they would i would say, it has benefited us greatly over the last 20 years in times ofcrisis to be able to have a fed that can act quickly.

what would have happened just in terms of the unemployment rate, of the pain that would have come, not arguing you can't push it off forever but is there something to be said for having a federal reserve that can act quickly. >> yes, i would agree with you that the lender of last resort function is important, and when we had covid and shut down the economy, the fed had to deploy the air bags, but at some point you have to get them out of the way so you can see through the windshield and the car gets back on the road and i think like any institution, when you get power, it's hard to give it up so the fed was even commenting on fiscal policy and what the government should be doing, and then the fed was sure that the resulting inflation would be transitory. now we're talking about both fiscal stimulus and monetary still lust. >> elizabeth warren was mad that

they wouldn't do enough to stop the heat waves and strong hurricanes. >> let's expand their area of authority, right? >> let's move on to that so that we can, you know, cool the planet and lower the seas. >> sure, because they don't have enough to do. >> yeah, because they don't have enough to do. real quickly will there be a 50-basis point cut in this cycle? >> that would not only alarm markets further. >> yeah. >> but i think the political implications would be damaging to the credibility of the fed. >> okay. good to have you in studio today. >> my pleasure. thanks for having me. >> easy that way. >> always. >> because it hurts my head to talk to -- >> anybody here? >> i hear the sirens in this set. that's right. >> yep. there it is. >> make it's pertinent here. 50 basis points. >> we got sirens for everything. we got sirens for everything. guys, when we come back, the

biggest take away from apple's earnings we can's talk to tony after the break returning from paris and nasdaq after this. (vo) what does it mean to be rich? maybe rich is less about reaching a magic number... and more about discovering magic.

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of earnings season, apple posting an all around solid third quarter although china sales were weaker than expected. everything else looked like it was incredibly strong, stronger than the street anticipated. toni sacconaghi is here and, toni, your take on this. i think you wrote something that said clean living. what did you mean? >> good morning, becky. it was a solid quarter for apple. the numbers were clean. they beat by a little bit, and they guided up modestly relative to expectations for next quarter. so there's been a lot of drama in tech land other the last several days. apple doesn't fit into that category. they delivered slightly better than expectations and projected a pretty positive tone about the forthcoming iphone cycle which is where investors are most focused. >> we did mention apple's china business was down 6 and a half% year over year, maybe 10% sequentially. want to put context around that?

>> sure, so that was actually a little bit better than we had anticipated, becky, because the last three years on average they've been down 16% seq sequentially so were down year over year but had a relatively tough comp and do believe at the margin china was a little bit better. now, all that said, there have been concerns that apple pay be structurally challenged in china. we don't believe that's the case. we believe that china consumers are very sensitive to feature functionality of the iphone. this year feature functionality was not particularly good on the iphone in terms of improvement versus last year and the chinese consumer largely sat that out. we think that could potentially reverse next year. >> you mentioned that apple is very different from the other magnificent seven in terms of spending, what they're focusing on, ai, they're actually cutting

their capex down 26% year to date so different than we heard from, let's say, amazon where they say they'll have to continue to spend heavily on ai and there's this big debate about whether that's the right play to be heavy spending now and hopefully build it up for when it's a bigger profit center down the road. what do you think of apple's approach here? >> well, you're absolutely right. apple's approach is highly differentiated in part because it's a different kind of company. apple is really an installed base company. a billion consumers have their lives with apple. their photographs, their notes, their calendars, their texts, et cetera, and what apple is doing with ai is trying to bring the best of ai so on device ai to help organize all those things, external ai with openai and bring it to its customers. it doesn't need to invent ai and

accordingly it doesn't need to invest in large language models to the degree with others and doesn't need to operate datacenters. what it's doing is providing access for others to bring their ai and for apple to bring its own ai to consumers and so the upshot is apple will spend maybe 10 billion on capital expenditures this year, some of the other megacap tech names you mentioned spending 50 to 70 billion this ear and as a result apple's cash flow is very, very strong because it doesn't have huge capital expenditures. >> toni, thanks a lot. >> my pleasure. >> for a check on the markets, it was -- was a -- kind of a big number to watch and i'm amazed that the bond market can sniff things out sometimes. >> yeah, it's down even more. >> more conviction. andrew, i don't know. you got -- life goes on. the important stuff goes on. >> c'est la vie.

>> exactly. >> over there. >> exactly we don't have to think about all this stuff, jobs report. >> supposed to be a diversion and it is a very goodie version but it is -- i forgot the entire time it's on. >> hear no evil, see no evil, nothing. it's the greatest. it's the greatest. the olympics are the greatest. >> see you all. >> next week in person, unfortunately. >> thanks, andrew. >> it would be nice to stay here longer. >> no, we had a great time together. >> i want to stay here. >> make sure you join us, "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning, welcome, i'm carl quintany la with jim cramer and david faber. futures are sharply red as the growth steam picks up steam and jobs miss 114,000,