>> exactly. >> over there. >> exactly we don't have to think about all this stuff, jobs report. >> supposed to be a diversion and it is a very goodie version but it is -- i forgot the entire time it's on. >> hear no evil, see no evil, nothing. it's the greatest. it's the greatest. the olympics are the greatest. >> see you all. >> next week in person, unfortunately. >> thanks, andrew. >> it would be nice to stay here longer. >> no, we had a great time together. >> i want to stay here. >> make sure you join us, "squawk on the street" is next. good friday morning, welcome, i'm carl quintany la with jim cramer and david faber. futures are sharply red as the growth steam picks up steam and jobs miss 114,000, smallest

growth in almost four years, yields plummet. and it begins with megacap tech and apple seeing a slowdown. amazon margins narrowing while announcing plans to ratchet up ai spent. >> we'll keep an eye on big oil and tensions in the mideast. exxon banked one of its highest ever profits for the second quarter. chevron's earnings did miss expectations. we're also going to watch chip stocks, of course, nvidia certainly but what about intel. shares will be down sharply on news of a cost-cutting plan. the company will slash as many as 15,000 jobs. >> let's get right to the sell-off. the s&p and nasdaq on pace for their third straight week of losses as we digest megacap tech results and jobs number today. hiring did slow sharply in july. jim, yesterday, you said you thought the fed probably should have moved in july and now the market is looking at 50 in september. >> thank you, carl. yeah, i think they misjudged the

month, the fed. it was a very weak month, not a lot of jobs created. a lot of things that happened in the economy and also things that happened in the other world, the real world, in terms of what happened to former president trump and i think people are transfixed. what? >> i'm just -- there's music still going. >> yeah. >> i don't know why. it's bothering me. sorry. >> maybe it's like that bear. >> thank you. >> i was recently in -- >> can we just talk about what's going on here? everybody says the fed is behind the curve and this jobs report seems to confirm the fears that happened yesterday, that's 17 years ago you started to rant about the fed. i'm not sure you feel that way right now. >> no, i don't. i think they missed -- >> everybody was saying the ims was bad. rates need to be lower and suddenly watched all of megacap tech get hit. >> we got to talk about it because it's not correct. >> today you've got earnings from apple which were not bad,

amazon confirms perhaps fires from the consumer and jobs number and look at a 3.85 and we're going to head lower again on many of those big stocks that take the market. >> we have to distinguish. i think that if we just say megacap -- we got to get away from that. we have companies that are building a huge amount and spending a lot -- a huge amount and giving money to nvidia and then companies that were free riders and apple is one which i would buy if it were down today. that was a bullish call. tim cook's probably the most, i'd say least concerned person about the economy. most excited person about the rollout and i think that we -- if we lumped in apple -- people -- it's the future, stupid. apple is good. >> well, this gets to the conversation we've been having for weeks, jim. we've heard about concerns about the consumer from luxury, from airlines, from restaurants, from

consumer products, but somehow we're to believe that people are going to go out and spend a thousand dollars on a phone? >> the terrific cfo of amazon confirmed it's the high end they're spending and said electronics probably the most important buy which i thought was incredibly significant. we go into amazon web services being great, by the way and can talk about the fact there was some days that there wasn't a lot of buying, the olympics have played a role. the attempted assassination played a role but i will point out that it seems like the end of the world. days like today. >> is this why you tweeted the picture of the sunrise. >> the sun came up. >> always does, thankfully. >> so maybe you ought to get more with the program. >> what is the program? to not have a day where stocks go down? >> the program is you buy at 165. you just buy it. do you think it's bad -- i mean, did you -- if you read the call, i think that you've got three divisions. you have advertising which is important.

you have their retail business which is obviously important and then you have the best, which is web services was even better than expected. >> it was up 19% growth reaccelerated. 35% gross margins people applauding amazon web services. the concern, though, once again is playing into the overall concern in the market, which is about the consumer, maybe not the high end but mid and low end. >> the fed cuts then what do we do? >> consumers are being careful on price. north american growth is outpacing sales growth as continued work of selection, low price and delivery is resonateing. >> it means they're wiping out cvs and walgreens with same day. who knows how many stores have to close. people are not going to the drugstore. they're doing same day amazon. that's what's happening. >> okay. another thing that actually is hurting amazon seems to be the fact that they decided to build a lot of satellites. project cooper. >> i didn't understand that. we should leave it to musk.

>> that came into some gross margins. >> that's the wrinkle, carl, that i didn't see coming, what i did see coming was that jensen huang can't make all the chips they want so built their own. if someone says they're competing, nvidia, that's a major mistake, but, look, it's a down day. i'm not saying come -- no one is going to come to the rescue because the fed didn't move yesterday but i have to tell you that if the fed moved with -- in the next seven weeks, you're going to say, why did i sell amazon at 160? what was wrong? kiper. i thought that was like schnapps, kuyper. when you stay focused. >> i'm here. i'm not supposed to be here. >> i wasn't counting on the schnapps reference at 9:06. >> do they know that. >> i don't know what they know about schnapps.

>> if you want to panic listen, you know who is not panicked? timothy donald cook. i talked yesterday with him, and what did we talk about? about perhaps an ad for apple plus because, you know what, apple plus is doing incredibly well. i won't reveal who lives in "presumed innocent" but it did come up on my call. >> amazon product. you did talk to cook and i think we have quotes floated about i guess ai and capex spend. toni sacconaghi saying a moment ago relative to their peer, their cash flow is superior because their spend is lower. >> cash flows -- at one point in the call, the cfo said i'm glad you noticed it's gigantic. but i know, david, it's a bad day and i'm supposed to say, it's only a matter of time before they too -- i me, i got to tell you, china, the biggest three cities had an increase in share and if you backed out --

if you backed out the actual dollar strength, you would find out that they gained. >> why do you get so upset when we're having a down day because of macro concerns for any number of reasons? you get so angry about it that it's impacting stocks. they'll go down. you know why? the they're the most sowned and people are buying things like philip morris. >> they should not do that. the average viewer isn't gloating. they're saying, you mean to tell me apple is as bad as amazon? they want discerning and i'll give you discerning, chief, intel. what did i tell you? you said it was safe in intel. >> i never said it was safe. >> you were wrong. >> never "evermore" said that. never, not once. >> john book. you're wrong. you know who john book is. >> "witness." >> that's your part of the world. >> i knew the whole safe thing. >> you want me to -- >> you got to come up with a new

one? >> by the way, anything above 24% decline today would be the worst intraday performance for intel since 2000. quarter century. >> okay, toni -- there was a moment in -- not on the call and comes on air and fabulous. >> he is a chip analyst. >> he mentioned the two words that you know i've been saying for a long time. >> what are they? >> going and concern. >> yeah, b of a cuts to underweight. the title of that report is no quick or easy fix. they go to 29, i think, jim. >> yeah, i just don't even know how dell can stay with them, how hp can stay with them. there was a moment in the call we were slagging nvidia by saying they have this gowdy three. no one is -- >> they sold half a billion. >> nvidia -- they did that today. >> i know. >> what i think is really dangerous here is that they took the money from the government, okay, and they're building these foundries, they're moving or

taking oregon foundry to ireland but they did. they're moving business to ireland but i have to tell you that this was a conference call where gueselsinger's calm natur infuriated me because this company is on the verge. >> now, okay. >> who's been right the whole damn time. >> jim, i'm not arguing that you haven't been right -- 234rs. >> kwai are you so angry? >> i'm not arguing about that at all. you've been right about worrying about this company but saying that there's a going concern. >> no, i'm saying -- >> they are, by the way -- will you let me finish just for a second. >> of course, i'll let you finish. >> he may have been calm on the call but they have now cut the dividend. they're cutting enormous amount of employees, they're cutting capex. you would seem to be saying it's too little too late because their cpu business is dropping at a rapid rate. you can only buy so much and

obviously the buyers all want ai chip. >> but a lot of people are saying dell and hp can't stay with them, yes. no, david, on the going concern i was quoting stacy. i would not have used that. in other circumstances we would now be having going concern conversations is all i'm saying. me, no, i think what they have to have is a game plan to deal with all the -- with -- they have the chips money. >> well, they also have apollo that helped finance -- they have brookfield, another, they're significant owners of these, but it's years away and so they've got to somehow bridge this long gap to get to this promised land of fabs that are going to be producing chips that are what the market wants and that's obviously a key question. >> about 48 billion in debt. they've got a game plan but the game plan to me does not have what people really want which is ai. >> they are not there. >> this is part of what b of

a -- by the way, the target is 23 on it. they have a line in here, what might go right and that is stronger pc 150ikle driven by ai. even a fiercer geopolitical tension with china because intel is largely u.s. manufacturing based relative to a lot of peers. >> well, i think that those macro trends are with them. against them is amd. i think they can make all the chips in the world and yesterday leslie was on, i know the stock is down badly. when i listened to that call, i don't buy the going concern. you know i think it's going lower but when you listen to that call all you think of, carl, is yesterday renee haass in great shape. the day before lisa suh in great shape doing well. this company may be carrying. not carrier. >> carrion, c-a-r-r-i-o-n.

>> i didn't mention maga. >> many years as we've mentioned of mismanagement, poor decisions in terms of -- then execution as well. >> you know i thought -- i asked secretary raimondo, is it safe to do business with intel, secretary of commerce. i think everyone felt it was safe and listening to the call thinking, there's a moment, this is the moment where they don't have the business. and the moment where amd is calling michael dell, michael dell is calling amd, enrique, he's calling lisa, hp. >> after a week where we got our guidance and western dig guidance and intel and micro krypto you're still bullish on the space at large? >> no, i'm bullish on companies that really have -- who are going to the gpu or helping nvidia. >> so it's a narrower set of

bullishness. >> the conference call for amazon, you know, they know, they absolutely know that they have to spend money on ai. to the point where they mention that nvidia sold out. they're sold out for a long time. they're sold out probably through 2025. >> listen, the spending plans we heard reaffirmed from the likes of microsoft or meta or alphabet or amazon have done nothing to dissuade anyone from thinking nvidia will still be the key beneficiary. we have this rotation that's going on in the marketplace. there's concern ultimately about the consumer, whether the fed is behind the curve, but none of that seems to go to the heart of the matter, which is nvidia is going to be potentially sold out for some time to come. >> listen to amazon. they have to build their own but that's a defensive move because they can't get enough. >> building their own chips. designing their own chips. >> yes, here's the way i look at amazon. i think it's important because the stock is down so bad today i would be a buyer. amazon knows that there's a lot of business so they have to buy

a lot of planes. they have to put up hangars. you don't when you're buying a lot you're not putting people in the planes so they buy the planes first, costs a lot of money then you have to bet they're right. i want to bet that jassy is right. you could use a different analysis buying a stradivarius and you can't just learn like a violin. it's a little harder to learn, a little harder to teach so i'm just using, trying to find analogies so people skwupdz stand it's taking some time. they can't just turn a switch. that's making people very upset and the fact they mentioned the olympics, bill is like, are you kidding? but the country is like in a 2012 mode. they're watching the olympics and not buying as much. >> because they're watching the olympics? >> them, not me. >> yeah, i know that was weird. >> them. >> jeffries does have a note saying clients are calling in asking about potential delays in blackwell and then we did have the report yesterday about doj reaching out to rivals of nvidia who have been complaining.

>> well, it's slower. it's slow, but they never really said it was going to ship in volume so people who thought it was going to they should talk to jensen. he never said it would ship in volume. never. >> right, right. there is still this question about return on invested capital. whether there will be -- by the way, the answers uniformly from the hyper scalers has been yes and jassy said the same thing. >> zuckerberg, remember? >> talking about generative ai, jassy said it's going to be built from the get-go in the cloud which allows the opportunity for those businesses to continue to grow. you've heard no letup whatsoever. >> that's what we should -- we're all focused on panic. >> those making the capital allocation decisions. >> can i say one thing? >> you can say many things. >> i'm sorry if you're mad at me. i got a little excited because it's a big day but i regret that i did. >> what did you do? do you know?

>> i yelled at you. >> it was actually somebody on twitter had -- from the office, michael scott yelling and screaming at everybody, calm down, everybody be calm. >> if i was out of line, i apologize. >> we'll take a quick break as we continue to watch the global sell-off and talk about some of the market overnight in japan. now 15% off of the july highs. we'll get to the oil, snap, booking, draftkings when we return.

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internal combustion vehicle sales down compared to july last year. where is growth happening at ford as well as with others, you see it at ford, evs and hybrids, evs up 312.2% year over year and hybrid sales, look, they're killing it when it comes to hybrids especially the maverick pickup truck up 47% year over year again, ford sales down overall essentially a flat month compared to july of last year. we'll send it back to you. >> see you in a bit. cramer's mad dash and look at futures, off the session lows but the vix still at 21, 2s, 10s down to 11 basis points. stay with us. welcome to the now way to network...

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>> announcer: "the opening bell" is brought to you by nuve. en, a leader in income, alternatives and responsible investing. all right, we got so many earnings movers to cover, one is snap. we'll get to that in the mad dash and have the opening bell five minutes from now and looking for a significantly down open. continued fears about growth and the jobs report that didn't help certainly alleviate any of those

fears. >> no. >> as for snap, what's going on here. >> there i think it's just heightened irrelevance. i think the brand advertising is going away because user growth is flat. i think this is one of those moments where you take a look at -- go back over zuckerberg's conference call and talked about how it's so easy for advertisers to target directly. zuckerberg said, listen, we have young people. they have like 18 to 26 but hardly yet but this is a shared donator and it was a conference call that was not as bad as intel's but pretty bad and a lot are trying to wonder existential, david. >> versus expectations. i'm just reading quick review here. i don't know. direct response ads up 16% year over year. brand ads declined. weak demand in retail. >> very bad. >> tech, entertainment. >> that's bad, okay. >> one of the things happening, we don't need all the players, so we do need youtube, okay, amazon, zuckerberg actually was

just -- killed it that conference call. maybe we only need three. i want pinterest. i like the site. i like reddit. i use that but and i think those can do okay but, david, if you're an advertiser you're saying just give me the big three, abc, cbs and trying to figure out who is fox. we have three channels and those are the channels and who cares, youtube, amazon, and most importantly zuckerberg who just took -- what did he do what that -- with jensen. i think jensen -- i think he had the most chips to -- >> meat that. >> to zuckerberg. i really do. yes, i do. >> okay. >> yeah, and those chips, you know, obviously there is an roi if you have a game plan. glad to see amd is up. amd is the true winner in what i regard as the dissolution of intel. >> what was remarkable this week, jim, was the comments, google, the risk of

underinvesting is dramatically higher than overinvesting. zuckerberg, i'd rather risk building out before it's needed rather than try to ramp up when it's too late. >> look, i think amazon is not years away. i think they're months away. meta down 12. look, there's panic today and it's friday and people worried about what could happen in the mideast. what do we do with the russell that that went up so much? hard to get out of small cap when you decide to turn. so, people are taking the cue from companies that are really actually doing okay. amazon is doing okay. >> what kind of got lost the boj hiking, the carry trade impact, the worst two days for the nika kay since '11. >> correlation between the qqqs and nikkei. it's -- >> i got up at 3:00. >> put those two together. >> down 5% but our market was only down a percent and a half

as people wake up and start banging down the nasdaq. this nikkei, no, that's like what happened. it kind of feels like '89 over there. >> well, of course, the nikkei did come a long way. >> yeah, but they -- in '89, this is what called them in '89. you could have gone long or dow and short the nikkei and cover. >> yes, it was a very, very, very long bear market. >> remember when they were kings. the enigma -- >> i remember it very well covering banking in the l late '80s and the japanese banks were huge players in our market. sumitomo, mitsubishi, long-term credit bank. >> how about when they bought rockefeller center. wasn't that the apex? >> it was. >> movies. they were -- cars. >> i remember hearing andy grove talk about how the late ceo of intel saying, listen, we got to play a little defense here. what would -- >> moved the company to cpus and

away from memory. >> 1985 got out of memory. that was smart. both andy grove and, of course, gordon moore realized memory -- they went into micro processors. really good movement i did not like the fact that pat gelsinger said that's what we're doing now. they had a good balance sheet and a plan and, look, i don't mind being negative about intel because i wanted people to get out and they got out and half my job is trying to get people out and half my job getting people in and i've succeeded on that and others i blew the calls but want people out of intel in the worst way and a lot -- is there we -- >> we have to show a longer term cla chart. interesting story. further. >> '22, come on. >> yeah. there we go. >> do you know they'll break even on -- [ cheers ] >> let's get the opening bell on

the cnbc realtime exchange. seaport entertainment group celebrating. big new york city story is downtown gets developed at the nasdaq it's new york city dance company. as we look at opening levels here, jim. and watch. >> come in and do buying? i will say yes. it's so early. it's really quarter of three that tells the tape. 2:25 on friday has been the deciding point about what happens. if the market is going down 2.5, look out, if it's turning, we're going to be fine but that's the fulcrum moment. i don't want to do anything before 245. >> a look at the dow down about a percent. we'll keep our eye on yields as we said, got to 3.79 on the ten-year. >> i'm looking for a yield myself. what stocks have a good yield?

[ crowd chanting ] >> somebody is happy. i look at a company like sempra which does so well with -- comcast, mentioning utilities, that was supposed to be -- it's super funny. are you laughing on the inside? >> i'm always laughing on the inside. listen, anybody with interest rates or balance -- comcast shares rupp, that's potentially helpful to a point. >> the two-year. yes, it was like buying nvidia, 5,000%. >> apple is bucking the trend for the megacap companies. it is up, what were strong numbers from the company. >> what he said to me? >> what. >> visionpro in its infancy starting to do incredible. i said to tim, a lot of people making fun of me but he said they shouldn't. it's going to be big. >> really? >> yeah. >> okay. >> okay. i mean, it's okay? >> okay. he's a believer. >> now apple is down. you killed apple.

>> i didn't kill apple. now it's up. i didn't kill apple. amazon, however, is down. >> go sell it. get out. >> almost half the gains -- >> get out now. t-mobile is up so huge. now, what the hell is that? >> that's where they're rotating. utility -- by the way, if you really get concerned the last thing they'll stop pay something their cell phone bill. >> obviously if you want to get -- t-mobile and don't lose market share you'll call timothy donald cook and say what you got for me? he is not jeff probst. he is not jeff. >> did you have higher hopes for iphone? down 1? >> no, i thought iphone was surprising that they gained share in china and the three biggest urban markets went for them. i'm focusing philippines, focusing indonesia. big -- india, big markets are really good. focusing service revenue which

is extraordinary. all being done -- >> up 14. >> won't be done without apple intelligence which i think will be amazing and excited about apple and just think that tim cook was about as calm and as excited in terms of his lilt but not, hey, he just seemed so confident and luca, david, the cash generation of this company may be the single greatest cash generation of any company i've ever seen. >> of any company in history? of capitalism, period. i mean numbers -- just the actual number, you can't compete. the numbers are -- you can't even imagine it. >> they don't give you the user number but i got to tell you, it is very clear that there's only going to be one phone in the world. i mean, this thing -- i remember huawei, samsung, go pound sand. >> can we -- >> where you going? >> big oil.

let's talk oil, exxon, chevron, both of which reported numbers. by the way, guys, also, when it comes to the overall market, there's still a lot of concern about heightened tensions in the middle east, iran responding to israel and what they believe was even though israel has not taken any responsibility for hamas' political leader being assassinated in basically the revolutionary guard shelters holding, you know, palace, whatever you want to call it, all of which leads to more concern as we head into a weekend of what the response, if there is one, may be. exxon had a number that is being rewarded in the stock market. when you look at exxon versus chevron now, there was a time when the market caps of these two companies were fairly close. no longer. exxon's market value is 532 billion and chevron is 275

billion. i know you've been -- you favored chevron -- >> until my hero, sheffield, got built. and that was such a great deal. sheffield, there's no plaque. there's no monument. nothing for him. >> exxon's ceo was a guest on "squawk box" earlier this morning. >> very serious. >> and darren woods was talking about actually the benefits of the pioneer deal. i believe we may have the sound. i don't want to promise it but i think we can. take a listen to what he talked about in terms of synergies. >> as we continue to leverage the opportunities and synergies between the company that will have more productive expense so my expectations we'll continue to see the volume growth. right now based on first two months into the merger, expect to end the year at about 1.2 million barrels a day in the operation but obviously we're early into this thing. i've got a very high expectation for that organization and what

they can deliver. >> of course, that goes back to a larger point, as well, the u.s. is producing more oil than ever. >> yeah, mike saying that the -- >> mike worth. >> i like exxon because pioneer was the most -- they didn't have enough money to handle all the oil that they had to bring in. >> chevron -- yep. you heard it -- becky did ask why not increase your earnings but he was reluctant at that point at least to promise that, but certainly speaking positively. the deal they got done in six months in contrast chevron is going to be waiting for that deal. >> right. >> if they even get it closed for a very long time. we reported yesterday that chevron said it would not be until may that the arbitration takes place, remember, they're arbitrating against exxon, the potential -- the partner of hess in guyana which is also an incredibly important port for exxon, for hess getting bought

by chevron. and it's unclear, then it would be months until the arbitration and you still got to get the antitrust. it could go on forever. >> ftc, great job on pioneer. >> got it done fast. >> absolutely a terrific thing and one of the things -- sheffield was on my show and i respect him. he said we did the best for shareholders, got a good deal but, david, remember, he got in trouble for some ridiculous -- >> yeah, that may have not been properly -- >> i'm upset. that's not fair. >> what about chevron is the question. again, we can take a listen. want to take a listen to mike talking about the hess deal and how they're viewing it. take a listen. >> we have indicated that there's a closing condition in the agreement that relates to this and if that were to be the outcome in the arbitration, the

transaction wouldn't necessarily close. we think that's a low likelihood and underneath, you know, the hess transaction as i said we've got strong organic growth under way across a number of our businesses, free cash flow growing very strongly with a strong balance sheet and record distributions to shareholders happening and so that's all the base case and as i said, the hess transaction makes it even stronger, so we feel confident in the outcome on the arbitration but our hand is very strong, you know, in the base case, as well. >> all right. you heard from mike worth. wanted to cover those two. >> 4% yield i think mike does a really good job but mike is pumping a lot from the permium. which one i would buy, i would buy chevron. >> also moving their headquarters out of california. >> yes. >> as you said on "squawk," we

will not be the last. >> that's something. this is standard oil of california. i mean -- >> on the coast near the airport. all the chevron stuff. >> one of the great companies and rockefeller, how many people rolling over in their grave. we got rockefeller rolling over, grove rolling over in his grave? who else? >> i'm trying to think about it. >> i'll tell you who is not because he's alive. >> who? >> i bet you bezos, because he's -- i think he's saying, are you kidding me? the quarter was good. we're doing a lot of things right. but let them sell. go ahead and let them sell. >> he's not rolling over at all. he's saying, listen, jassy -- >> more jacked than ever. you see that guy's arms? he's my age. yeah, huge guns. >> carl, this is the one if you want to know which one i would buy, i'd buy amazon, they have it very much under control and people are acting like they don't. meanwhile, procter, kimberly, abbott labs, amazing recession stocks. >> yes, by the way, the target

trims on amazon are not that big. >> no, they're not. >> goldman goes down 20 bucks, piper goes down 5 bucks. they've been surgical. the line about the consumer has some wondering what walmart is going to say in a couple of weeks, what kroger and target will say. >> i think they can say that it's delayed but it'll be good. there's a pause in buying. i come back to -- >> not because of the olympics. >> no, i come back and say, look, there is a moment of weakness but people will come back and buy. it's the holiday season and you're going to regret you sold amazon. are people selling amazon to buy clorox which is up 8? i'll tell you that's ill-advised. it's an ill advised trade. >> you don't like yield. >> well, i mean, linda did a good job. i'm saying i would not buy a packaged goods company. >> investors, the rotation isn't into pharma. market has had a brutal week and that call in particular where there was concern about sales of

gardasil in china in some ways and obviously keytruda comes off patents a number of years from now but merck shares are up 2.2%, a bit of relief, across the board, j&j, bristol-myers. >> had a good quarter. you want the one that is ironic so last week at 5:00, abbott lost a case, a very -- nec for a very serious illness that a plaintiff said they caused. it was a $495 million loss by abbott and it's had the best week it's had in ages. what does that tell you? people rotating furiously into recession stocks. i think that's all right. >> are we really going to have a recession. >> no, we're not. david, people are doing stupid things. the first amendment you can do all the -- >> you say people. it's mostly algorithms and machines and -- >> well, it is. >> you try to get on the call, easier to get in than out.

it's a roach motel now. >> as far as recession goes, atlanta fed is running 2.5 for the quarter. drw does point out the unemployment rate is 0.9 off the cycle low and typically doesn't stop there once you're up that much. >> right now jay powell is looking at amazon. he's sensitive to everything. and saying, wow, i got to -- i don't think they get so granular as to read the quarter but amazon is where people shop. if you see a drop in that, it means not just substitution but they're hoarding and not going to the store. i don't think that's the case. that's why i said amazon at 164, 165, you may start there and i think you may say, i got in. i got in on a day when they had one bad quarter. >> speaking of all that, booking, lows for the year. glen fogel said there was impact from lower airfares but they didn't seem too rattled. >> no, they weren't and yet i

felt at the same time that travel -- you mentioned marriott. i mean, i think that there's a pause in travel and travel had been the strongest part of the economy. and i'm concerned about the pause because i'm trying as always, dave da-- i didn't meano dave you. that's like a barbecue restaurant. i'm worried about boeing again. >> yep. >> because they need the cash flow. >> you're right to point to the travel data. that's something i have down here in my notes as well from those wondering how quickly the consumer is slowing down and, of course, you know, there's that -- you slow down slowly then you slow down quickly. are we in the quick part of slowing down? >> well, the airlines were just okay. >> nobody said these people are bright. i'm just repeating what they tell me. guys, it is worth noting apple shares are up nicely. >> right. >> perform imagine of that stock now for the year exceeds that of amazon and exceeds that of microsoft. it's closing in on the

performance of alphabet. obviously meta shares are far up some -- but apple's quarter, as you said, on the other side we talked about it a lot but it is a fascinating story, if not a particularly positive one. intel shares, you're talking about a company that has an $87 billion market value. by contrast the company used to crush repeatedly amd has a $220 billion -- >> that is so amazing. when i met lisa su -- >> go back more than 20 years, i don't know if we have the ability -- >> can we do intel versus amd? a houdini-like chart? >> over 20 years, there are leads that are lost and never regained. >> grim. >> yeah. >> research in motion. >> yeah. >> it was the anniversary of research in motion. now, that would be -- okay, it's called a -- lisa su comes in,

look what she does. how brilliant she is. >> i remember back in the day reports that would literally say amd exists at the pleasure of intel. >> just so it doesn't get into antitrust -- >> you got to keep them alive. >> sanders, who was the -- >> jerry sanders. yeah. but, look, lisa comes in, nice building, by the way, donates very -- >> gave a nice building. >> she's an easterner as opposed to one of these silicon valley whatever. >> where is she from again? >> she's from queens. >> what borough? >> queens. >> i think she's from 159th, okay. my wife is like from 163 and i do think that when the book is written, what she did here versus what gelsinger did, the ceo of intel, because she is brilliant but she doesn't carry herself like that. she and daniel are two of the most -- two of the most regular people in the world. i just really like them.

>> you mentioned media and comcast. by the way, olympic viewership up 80% from tokyo. >> wow. >> pretty amazing. we'll get track and field next week. basketball and a lot more. nfl, you didn't mention the -- the return. >> the return of the 4.7 -- >> draftkings although it's lower. >> -- billion verdict. >> a company no one is talking about. that doordash quarter. people are spending their darned fool heads off if you listen to doordash. what do you think of that? >> also some of the theater chain, jim, cinemark with a decent quarter. "inside out 2" is helping out. >> i'm not as negative as people. i wish the fed would move. obviously the ten-year is telling that. i just think the exaggeration of the decline in tech, they have to go listen to mark zuckerberg who had a very calm hand and

listen to apple and you may say, you know what, maybe i shouldn't sell megacap. really those two were very good. >> cinemark with an almost 80% gain on the year. >> really? >> yes. as -- remember when we were talking about existential threats to the movie business or at least the distribution business. >> yeah, well, look, it's nice to see something very positive happening. wow. wow, that's like the inverse of intel. look at that. >> yeah, who would have thunk it? >> i got to talk to hugh johnson. how is disney doing today? >> well, disney has done extremely well at the box office, as you know. >> yeah. >> with "inside out 2" and then the "deadpool" and "wolverine" -- >> starbucks is up. what is going on there? >> we continue to wonder whether things will be settled in a friendly way between the large

share soldier elliott known for their activism although not often going to a proxy fight or whether they will have to get a little nasty. i don't know the answer, jim. >> well, that's one of the great -- carl, we have these stories of all time and these are great stories,elliott versus starbucks or is it elliott -- >> elliott/everyone is what it is lately. >> cons at thelation brands has a great relationship with them. remember, it's alcohol. >> really quick, b of a, down 3% plus. more discussion about trimming. >> yes. >> morgan stanley does get cut to underweight at wells. >> i thought that was -- my travel trust owns it. it's been a great story and just thought that was -- i just thought that was just a careless downgrade. 3.79 yield. that's what you buy in here. >> worth mentioning that the banks are off. >> no. worried about credit. if i were jamie dimon, i would

write a piece in "the washington post." how about the trashing of charlie -- >> dimon's warning about hurricanes may actually come? >> maybe beryl. i'm favoring truman, eisenhower and lincoln. he comes out in favor of lincoln sfles's talking about his endless talk about that the -- that we may have a recession, they're talking about this presidential election thing. >> it's always a good thing to come out in favor of lincoln, okay? david? >> understood. thank you for that tip. i'll keep it in mind. >> i don't want him to be on the wrong side of lincoln or jensen for that matter. >> the dow is down about 4.40. almost a 1% decline on the s&p. bonds obviously will be a huge story today if these moves hold as the ten-year did dip briefly below 3.8. watch the curve, as well, as we go to break. be right back.

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> one of these trades lost in the shuffle, goldman downgrade of lululemon. this is lululemon shooting themselves in the foot. decline in innovation and i don't know where this one stops because the high multiple stocks our age, are just not doing those. >> that's interesting. >> if you want to bottom fish, bottom fish in meta and microsoft. i would say microsoft, bottom fish at 400. amazon 160, apple you don't have

to bottom fish it's doing well. leave out nvidia because it's too emotional. own it and don't trade it. it's very emotional. you have to let the people out of the stock before you come in. >> interesting piece on the tape regarding nike and their marpgtsing spend ratcheting up year after year as they try to resuscitate, the story talks about moving savings from structuring into marketing. >> i think that they have very good product and they don't seem to be in sync. i mean this is the olympics. you used to buy nike ahead of the olympics. mark zuckerberg talks about giving a check to us and having great results. i think nike should take its market spend and give it to mark zuckerberg. listen, here it is. >> run both. >> just go and throw in some ads for raybans which i told you were sold out and you laughed. >> i don't know why he keeps saying, carl, can you adjudicate, have i laughed about the rayban thing. i laughed about the vision

pro-not the raybans. >> i don't mind. >> i love you. >> only on the inside. >> a reference to jensen huang. i interrupted him and said that was supposed to be funny, super funny, laughing on the inside. put down of me. i thought was hysterical. i went by meta and buy microsoft at 400. i'm giving you levels that i think are good levels. >> i love you. whatever you want. >> i love you too. >> do you? >> that's a nice blazer. >> thank you. i appreciate it. i didn't know ginsburg was still around. >> it's a wonderful place to shop. >> mo ginsburg. >> i'll see you after the show, partner. >> tjx is good ydownstairs by te way. >> on crude below 74. there has been interesting pieces on the bullish trades among fund managers just taking off $40 billion in the last couple days. >> we have the -- everyone says we're on the verge of a wider war in the middle east and oil can't get traction.

i can say if there was a peace agreement maybe oil goes to 65. the world is awash in oil right now. it's awash. it's not a good trade. chevron at 4%. i'm looking at yield, for yield, because with when you have the 10-year plummet it's a chance to pick up yield. the panic in the magnificent seven might be the trade you can buy some now and wait until quarter three and take a look at where they take it. you can buy it quarter four if it's bad at quarter three. >> what ha a great show. >> it's great. >> you're still the best. did you date me again? >> remember the guy in nar kose who looked like you. >> of course. >> he's also in that, yeah. >> in a lot of stuff >> he does. there is a resemblance. >> i know that you think your burn thaw. you ain't no burn thaw. >> you love saying burnthaw. >> we'll take a break as stocks

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♪ good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla and david faber, live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. we are in selloff mode here on wall street. the s&p down another 1.6% adding to losses for the week. the dow down 470 points and the nasdaq getting hit the hardest down 2.5% right now. it has been a story of weakness. the jobs report didn't help. three sectors that are higher, defensive names, consumer staples, utilities and real estate. everybody else is weaker. consumer discretionary is your worst performer down 5% because amazon is down 12%, such a heavy weight after earnings.

we'll talk about that. technology not far behind it. information technology also weaker. intel is cratering. we're going to talk about that and hear comments from the ceo. the stock down 27%, wild moves off earnings. take a look at treasuries, lower yields and we make new lows with the 10-year at 3.8%. we just slipped below 4% this week and we're heading south pretty quickly. the 2-year yield 3.9% as traders reassess the outlook for fed cutses and potentially think there are deeper ones coming. here are some big movers. more results out of big tech. amazon, it's moving in the opposite direction as apple on the respective results, we're going to break down what to do with both stocks and the messages from the companies this hour. snap share downs around 30% after revenue missed estimates. the company issuing disappointed guidance. they've cut back down 22%. intel plunging after guidance

misses and the company announces plans to cut 15% of their workforce, around 15,000 employees. even though that had been reported, more bad news for that stock down sharply. >> factory orders, busy day for rick santelli. hey, rick. >> carl, these are factory orders for the month of june. expecting down 3.2. we get extra helping of negative news. minus 3.3, the weakest biggest negative month over month change going all the way back to the covid effect of april of 2020. if you strip out transportation, you could see what the negative aspects came from because it goes from minus 3.3 up to 0.1%. up 0.1%. that is reversing. last month's minus 0.7%, comps in april. if we look at the durable goods set of values here, what should jump out at us, these are final reads. final reads.

so if we look at durable good orders on the headline it goes from minus 6.6 to minus 6.7 which means it remains at the biggest negative month over month change going back to april of 2020. and, of course, we know durable goods is a volatile series but this read is negative. trip out transportation, we see where the negative aspects came from. it goes all the way up to 0.4%. very close to where we expected it to come and that takes the place of up 0.5% and that actually still remains the best level of the year. last year it was up 0.6. finally witif we look at capita good orders, it only loses 0.1. shipment gains a 0.1 up 0.2%. the astounding week over week changes is historic. right now at 3.95, we're tdown,

get this, 43 basis points on the week and at 3.83 on a 10, it's down 26 basis points on the week. twos, tens spread looked like it was going to geto into single digit the. it's now minus 11. >> with that backdrop of lower dollar and weak stocks it's the economic data which has turned weaker. what's interesting is bad news is bad news how it's being traded. not traded hopefully in the equity market as more reason for the federal reserve to cut rates. let's go over the jobs report because it was weaker than expected. there's the headline number as you can see, 114,000 jobs added in july. that's a real step down than where we've been. it's weaker than where economists had hoped. they were looking for a number around 185,000 jobs. the unemployment rate, rises to 4.3% from 4.1. not great either, although potentially storm impacts there.

here's where the jobs were and weren't. information technology shed 20,000. health care still added. construction. leisure and hospitality. added 23, but that is also a lot weaker where -- than where that sector has been in the comeback since covid. private jobs, private non-farm payrolls, just 97,000. that was the weakest since march 2023 and the second weakest since the beginning of the pandemic. also, average hourly earnings, wages, slowed to 3.6% from last year. take it all up and we had revisions lower from the previous months including june. add it up, david, and you wonder if the labor market is weakening now too fast, and the fed is behind the curve. >> sara, it's kind of been whiplash in the ceps it's only a few days ago, many market participants felt september it's fine, we're on a good path, good trajectory and feels like two days to your point, the fed is behind the curve, the consumer is weakening.

yes, it's slowed first but now we've got a fast decline. what in the world has happened is the data supportive of this view somehow that is being reflected in what's going on in the market, not just the 10-year yield falling dramatically in a handful of days, but this very, very volatile rotation in the market. >> yesterday's manufacturing ism was a lot weaker than expected. well below that 50 expansion but even deeper into contraction at 46. that started us off. and then when you got weak jobs across the board and weaker than the expectations, which were for the job market to cool down in line with where it's been cooling that's a lagging indicator, jobs. and then you do wonder if everything we heard from fed chair powell on wednesday is stale and old. he got some good questions from the journalists i have to say on wednesday, if you read the transcript. but you go back to it, and he was pushed a number of times on, okay, is the chance of a hard landing increasing? he says no.

likes a low probability event. is there a chance we're going to get a first cut at 50 basis points. he said that's not what we're talking about right now. so there's definitely a rethink in investors' minds and traders' minds about where the fed is going to be on the answers to those questions. the odds of september going at 50, carl, which we've sort of made fun of -- >> you have not been a fan. >> the data didn't suggest that, but maybe now, since the fed, half of their mandate he say any weigh equally is jobs. if jobs is falling apart here, and we've broken that sahm rule where it's a half a percentage point move off the lows on the unemployment rate, and we have broken that, he called it a statistical occurrence, not an economic model, but that tends to suggest we're in early recessionary period. >> that's exactly bmo, a sizable labor market slowdown is well under way at a time where the chair said he didn't want to see any material slowing. timerrose points out at the june

meeting the dots in unemployment was 4% and 3 of 19 people had year end above 4.1. we're at 4.3 now. >> a negative surprise for them and they were at 2.6 on inflation which is where we are right now. it does suggest they should be cutting rates. bill dudley, former new york fed president who said do it in july. >> he did. >> this morning feels vindicated. >> do it. >> bank of england went early. that thinking was, the fed has more breathing room. our economy has been in better shape. it's not a complete collapse. where was fwp gdp? we're still tracking above 2% gdp. however, if it's about jobs -- >> do a good job of keeping track of the commentary from earnings conference calls in terms of what ceos are saying about the consumer and there has been an increased number people in the chorus saying the consumer is slowing. >> we got it from amazon last night. listen to what the ceo said there on the consumer.

>> consumers are being careful on price, our north american unit growth is outpacing our sales growth, as our continued work on selection low prices and delivery has rowesonated. >> little more caution from the ceo of clorox. >> consumers remain under pressure which will continue to temporarily increase competitive activity and impact category growth. >> we've heard that across the consumer staple space. evan speegle from snap, weaker brand advertising environment for verticals booking holdings cfo, mild indication of trade downs in the u.s. we see a steady picture. and then doordash doesn't see it. not seeing some of the challenges you may be hearing. it's not across the board, but i do think that some of the anneck doektss and the softer data like in the beige become from the fed suggests a more material slowing and weakening and faster than some of the harder data points. >> meantime, big cap tech a

major story as well today. a big part of the selloff. apple trying to hold on to gains. amazon on pace for the worst day of the year. dan ives joins us at post nine to break down some of those numbers. i guess begin with apple. you seem relatively -- the phrase tossed around good enough for now. >> that was about as bullish as you could have gotten from cupertino and cook going into an iphone 16 cycle which hasn't begun. not just in terms of the guidance, china i think is their last negative quarter from a year over year, starts to be a tailwind. services that remake rock solid. on a scale of one to ten, call it 9.8 relative. this is a stock that powers through the headwinds we're seeing and it's hard to be bearish on apple going into what i view as an ai driven super cycle for iphone 16. >> will there be a debate about that strength versus the macro consumers we spent ten minutes talking about?

>> that will be the debate. i will be in asia this week and everything we've seen is 80 million units we started for iphone 16. now it's up to 90. this is going to be a balancing act because we've talked about it a lot. in terms of the data, in terms of the quarter, in terms of what you saw from microsoft, from an azure perspective, you look at what you saw from google, from an aws perspective, the ai revolution story i believe is well intact and all of our checks, this is not a time to panic, despite the white knuckles we're seeing in the market. >> the ft reporting the elliott management told investors recently that nvidia is in a bubble and the ai technology is over hyped and the reality is not matching the hype. you totally disagree, i know. >> i couldn't disagree more. we were here before earnings, before conference calls and we talked about it. let's see what numbers look like. look at the azure excel ra rags. look at what lisa su talked about from amd. >> i thought azure was

disappointing. >> in terms of the acceleration they're guiding for for second half. that's really talks about the monetization that moment is right here. the haters have continued to hate. the bears have been there for the last few years. i get right now it's easy to come out and yell fire into a crowded theater in tech. we don't so it. it's not just from the call -- >> you see the value matching the hype? >> i think the street is underestimating what is going to be a trillion dollars of ai capex over the next three to four years in terms of across tech. nothing we saw here in any way -- >> you're right, dan. none of them are backing off their capex plans to your point. i mean aws actually acceleration at aws in terms of revenue growth up 19%. there is still, though, this larger question as to whether you're going to ultimately get that return on investment over time. you, obviously, believe that will be the case. but what do you see on the ground in terms of applications that are coming in the near term

that will start to at least alleviate any of those fears some investors may have? >> from the enterprise perspective, we hear it from jensen and nvidia in a few weeks, the use cases and amount of enterprise right now that are on that ai path, is up 4, 5 x. these enterprises are on the path from what i believe are going to be use case across health care, financials, insurance, retail. as we've always talked about, it all comes down to show the moptization. the spending is there. i think when you look at what suh talked about, nadella, we talk about from sandar, jassy, this revolution has happened. the monetization phase is starting. i'm not going to say we're going to have an air pocket between capex and when the revenue comes. to bet on this and against it, to bet against cook, and $2.2 trillion in terms of where we ultimately see, you know, the actual install base, and you

look at actually right now an ai revolution coming to apple, that's a tough bet. >> would you give it a year? if it doesn't happen in a year, if the rhetoric doesn't change would you get nervous? >> if we sit here in january or february haven't seen the moptization from a software perspective, outside just mag seven to call it second, third, fourth derivative, if mcdermott comes and he's negative on ai, then that's where, of course, we have to sort of look at it. right now it's more emboldened because of what we see, not just from earnings but our checks. >> i've never seen bill mcdermott negative on anything. >> mcdermott, suh, nadella, cook are seeing something i will take them despite many right now kind of throwing gasoline on the fire. >> good to see you. ta dan ooifx. jefferies market strategist, cnbc contributor david zervos

joins us now to talk through some of this data we've been getting and how the market feels like it's more worried about the bad data pricing in a hard landing. what do you think? i think we're a long way from that, sara. i've had client discussions post the number, you know, i'll give you one stat that caught my eye. throughout the entire 1990s, up until the summer of 1999, the unemployment rate above 4.3%. we spent six months below 4.3 in the entirety of the '90s. i think we have to think about a level here and understand and jay said this in the press conference on wednesday, 4.1 and 4.3 as well are still really low in the grand scheme of sgligs it's a change. how fast it's changing. >> i get it. i get it. and the sahm rule is a statistical regularity. i think that was the word used when discussing that earlier in the show. and -- but no hard and fast law of economics.

that's for sure. so they're watching. i actually think this number makes them pretty happy. i think this is the path to normalization that they've wanted. they're going to be happier if they get some reprieve on the inflation data in the coming weeks. really, this is all about jackson hole. we're going to get a signal at jackson hole, i think about the path of rates. we pretty much knew september was a lock. now it's almost guaranteed a lock. the question will be 25 or 50. i think 50 is jumping the gun. the most important thing i will say is, he didn't want to give guidance on the path. i think steve liesman asked him that question if i'm not mistaken, and that's where he could give you dovishness and relief in the market, if people are getting nervous about a hard landing saying we could go quickly, 25, 25, 25 the rest of the year. november and december meeting. if this data, if this negativity persists and we're at 4.6 or 4.7, we have plenty of room to

go. >> i mean, it just seems like this is a fed that hasn't been willing to commit to a path, similar to the ecb. no predetermined path. data dependent. they generuinely don't know wha is appropriate and make sure inflation comes back down and we don't go into recession. it's a tricky balancing act. >> i agree. although i will still say, you know, i'll go to the mat, i'm giving them an a for this. i think they've done an incredible job at threading this needle. we were at almost 9% cpi inflation pushing into 2022 and the summer and here we sit, in the end of the summer are almost the end of summer in 2024, and -- sorry 2021 we peaked at 9, three years ago. it's been an incredible run and we're still sitting here at a 4.3 unemployment rate. kudos to the fed. i think they would not be looking at this decision that they made on wednesday and

saying darn, we should have gone because of this number. remember, one data point doesn't really move the needle, but they need to give the market some comfort with the path. they did that a little bit on wednesday. i think jackson hole could be dovish on the outlook for the path of interest rates and that probably soothes risk assets and stops some of the blooding wave seen. the s&p still up 10% fort year. not like this is a slouch of the year. >> true. >> halfway through. nchlt good point. speaks on the 23rd of august. the 10-year yield is at 3.8%. it's been a pretty dramatic drop, and now increased odds they go 50, which you say you don't necessarily see happening in september, so do you think the bond market is over doing it again? >> i think, look, maybe the front end got ahead of itself in the very front end. but if the path is right and the path is the normalization somewhere in the mid to lower 3s as an equilibrium rate, i don't

have any problem with the 10-year note here. we've been advocates of risk parody all year back to our kind of trade that's really been in the books for 15 years at jefferies, only got out of it in 2022 when it looked like a terrible time to be in it. i think the fixed income portfolio is hedging part of the equity portfolio again. that wasn't the case in 2022 and 2023. this is a positive story for the market. this is a world where your bonds can do a little extra work for you when the stock market is weaker. that's what we've been playing for at jefferies all year, a return back to the bridgewater risk trade that's been a bulwark for us for over a decade. it's working. i think it's probably going to continue to work. i think the positioning in the bond market is not great. i hear from every client in every meeting all year and last year, deficits, debt, we can't buy bonds, the bond market is going to collapse.

everybody has a negative view on the bond market. the bond market is not ready for 350 10-year note. that could be good news for equities to. >> it has been amazing to see the demand in the auctions giving those fears. the dollar/yen, seeing a 1.6% selloff in another usually large day stronger for the japanese week. it's gained 4.5%. our road map for the hour, stocks and yield plunging after that tough jobs number. goldman sachs chief economist joins us to talk about the road ahead. plus the big tech breakdown that after a very tough week for the mega cap stocks. we're going to continue to monitor action. apple shares you see holding on to gains. amazon down sharply. >> watch the chip names as well. intel plunging as sara said earlier. nvidia lower on the week. dow down almost 700. vix to 25. stay with us.

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selloff picking speed. not helping amazon. amazon shares down 12%, which makes it the worse day of the year. worse day since 2022 after disappointing guidance. our kate rooney with wall street reaction. >> sara, so amazon is the biggest laggard right now on the dow responsible for about a third of the index's weakness

this morning. guidance and e-commerce business has wall street worried reflected in shares. online sales for amazon slowed to 5%, down from 7%. on guidance the first revenue miss in almost two years for amazon. profit outlook came up short. you heard ceo andy jassy calling the consumer cautious on the earnings call and said folks are trading down to lower priced items but did argue that faster shipping is giving them an negligent retail. interesting reason we got for some of the choppy forecast the cfo told us on the media call that consumers are distracted right now by the news cycle. the olympics and trump assassination are causing people to defer sales according to the cfo. going to make it a hard quarter to forecast. consumers only have so much attention. ad growth slowed. executives did say it's coming off a larger base now and they highlighted prime video ads as a reason for optimism. cloud growth was a bright spot.

aws revenue up 19%. ai and capex a lot of oxygen on the earnings call after spending $30.5 billion when it comes to capex in the first half of the year, amazon expects to spend more capital investments are going to be higher in the second half of the year. the majority of that spending to support the growth needed for aws infrastructure and then ai. which executives say reflects strong demand. guys, back to you. >> it would be interesting to see the quarter and response if it hadn't been for the re-acceleration in aws. kate rooney. >> after the break, "squawk on the street" heads live to the olympics in paris. andrew ross sorkin with what's ahead. >> hey, carl. according to andy jassy, the olympics such a distraction impacting their business. when we come back we're going to talk about a different business ahead. that is the nba. we talked to adam silver about the big media deal in part with amazon. our parent company as well.

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." an draw ross sorkin has been live at the paris olympics all week and joins us with the latest including his conversation with the nba commissioner. andrew, wrapping up a great week of coverage, i should add. >> thank you, david. but, you know, the markets down, it's taking a little bit of the excitement away from what's otherwise been going on here. i want to tell you about the talk of the town, simone biles winning gold for the all-around yesterday, now the fifth u.s. women in history to win at least six career olympic gold medals. i was there, i saw it in person and got to tell you, it was electric and inspiring and all those good things. it was just magical. after a gold medal victory we put on a g.o.a.t. necklace say

the haters hate it, but i like that even more. meantime the u.s. men's basketball team already clinching a spot in the quarterfinals. they're going to be closing out group play against puerto rico tomorrow. early on "squawk box" today i spoke with commissioner adam silver about the league's $77 billion deal with our parent company amazon and espn as well as the controversy of leaving out warner brothers, tnt and the criticism of charles barkley. >> i don't think it's a fair comment to say it's just about money. i mean, of course the economics are a component and 50% goes to the players, as charles well knows, but reach and accessible, discoverability, are critical issues as well. so we look for an intersection of all those issues. but as i said, particularly for a young fans and the morphing of all fans, to streaming, that was a critical component of these

deals as well as our ability to reach more people through traditional broadcast television. >> adam silver making the argument that matching rights that warner brothers has a little bit different because it's very hard to match the streaming world in terms of now both reach and audience in this respect. meantime there's a lot to watch here in paris. today 25 total metal events including judo, trampoline and afterry. in the pool this afternoon, women's 200 meter backstroke and men's 250 meter freestyle. david, the other thing going on, the great part about these olympic games have been we don't talk too much about politics and what divides this world and divides everybody back home. but twitter can sometimes do that and simone biles has taken to twitter, she wrote this, she wrote, i love my black job, seemingly taking a jab at former president trump after her

olympic win getting a lot of play here in paris. and that, of course, coming after president trump had met with some black journalists over the weekend and taken -- his own jab at vice president harris and her overseeing of the border at the time he was saying that immy grants, they're taking black and hispanic jobs and you haven't seen it, something the worst in our history and then asked what black job is, and it all somewhat went downhill from there. but simone biles making a little bit of a statement about politics back home here in paris today. >> yeah. she's been somewhat outspoken. the g.o.a.t. and i guess she believes she has haters. i don't know who they are because she's a unique talent. i'm jealous you were able to watch her live. >> yeah. it was pretty cool. >> she is the g.o.a.t.

i mean i remember nadia comaneci but she is. you met with business leaders. any broader takeaways in terms of confidence, for example, in things of that nature that are important to our viewers? >> i would say actually that remarkably -- and i wonder whether it's the spirit of the olympics or not -- we've been seeing reports come out whether it's amazon or others that have actually led the markets down. we have this jobs report this morning that i think has a lot of people concerned, but when you talk to the ceo community, there was actually a remarkable confidence. now maybe it was misplaced confidence, but you did not hear the kind of hesitation that you've heard in some of the earnings reports this past week, and i don't know if that's a tale two of cities or just different industries we're hearing from here in paris. i would have -- i felt and sensed a genuine sense of optimism around people's business and where they thought we were going to be over the next 12 months, and so the

question, of course, is, you know, what markets are doing right now, i think we're -- we're down 700 points, is that indicative of what's happening in the real economy? is that something else? it may be just reflective in terms of the confidence here that markets had moved so much, as you very well now, over the past month higher and that i think makes people feel better too. so, you know, interviewing people last week and interviewing people today, could be a little bit different. >> >> carl, you're heading out there on monday? >> i'm going to fly out this weekend, andrew. i don't know if we'll get to do one of our great handoffs like in pyongyang, but we'll help viewers make their way through basketball and track and field and into the closing ceremonies. a weekend from this one. >> you got some of the cool stuff coming. track and field starting to today. it's one of those things i have not had an opportunity to see in person and it's going to be very exciting, carl. i'm looking forward to your coverage and, of course, then

basketball is going to get really under way and boy, is that going to be fun to watch. >> great chat with silver today. >> coming back to paris. enjoy it, again, our tip of the hat to you and the squawk team. barn burner shows all week long. an true ross sorkin in paris. >> when we come back goldman's chief economist janhatzius breaks down the jobs number and says that 50 basis points in september would become likely in august jobs number is weak. russell down 4%. stay with us.

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with so much entertainment out there wouldn't it be great... ...if you could find what you want, all in one place? show me paris. xfinity internet customers can enjoy the ultimate entertainment experience and save on some of the biggest names in streaming, all for just $15 a month. get the fastest connection to paris with xfinity. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm leslie picker with your cnbc news update. wall street journal reporter evan gershkovich is advocating for russian political prisoners in his public comments since freed in thursday's historic prison exchange. he said he spent a month in prison where he was surrounded by dissidents and that he plans

to be an advocate for them in the coming months. venezuelan's foreign minister accused the u.s. today of being at the forefront of a coup attempt. the comments came after the u.s. said yesterday it recognized opposition leader edmundo gonzalez as the winner of the country's recent presidential election, resdwrektsing nicolas maduro's claims of winning a third term. hyundai is recording santa fes because the air bags could unintentionally deactivate or deploy. the recall affects certain suvs from 2024, including hev models. back to you. >> stocks continue to be under significant pressure this morning. the s&p is down 2.5%. the nasdaq as you see, 3.28%. good deal of it from the jobs report we got this morning. it came in below expectations adding fuel to what already was a fire in terms of at least concerns about a rapidly slowing

economy and a consumer going along with it. steve liesman joins us now. can give us some of the details from this report. your own thoughts about it as well. steve? >> yeah. and the reaction, david. i want to -- the jobs report this morning strongly changing the outlook for the federal reserve. the question is whether markets are becoming too aggressive in their outlook for fed cuts as they did earlier this year. before we do that one way to understand the weakness in the jobs report which is the weakest since december 2020 in total, look at private sector job growth without health care and social assistance. we're taking out here a sector that looks to be driven by a secular trend and government spending. you see a gradual weakening, 152,000 in march, a mulligan in april and now down to 33,000 in job the private sector without health care and social assistance not adding many jobs. not cutting a lot. what happened? the chance of a september 50

basis points rate cut before the jobs report 31%, moments ago ratcheted up to 73% for a 50. writing now in the report, quote, this week's fed announcement was a mistake. the case for 50 in september is strong. he says. the market now priced for a fed that cuts rates seriously and sequentially. five cuts now expected through the january 2025 ticking off 120 basis points. through january 26, nine cuts built into this rate or 210 basis points coming off. that would bring the rate down to 3.30, a bit above the neutral rate. a very aggressive action priced in. we've been back here before. in january, markets priced in rate cuts by the fed again that was reversed you can see there because of that spurt of inflation and growth we've had earlier this year the market looks to be placing in a fed that reverses sharply in response to recession fears.

that was not the fed's general read on the economy on wednesday. they still seem to be talking about a gradual cooling down to a more normal runway, but as you know, guys, now that sahm rule appears to have been triggered, maybe there's more concern right now and maybe the fed moves to where the market is and is concerned about the economy. >> on that point, thank you. steve liesman. joining us at post nine today is jan hatzius, goldman sachs. great to have you in. do you think if the meeting were this wednesday rather than last they would cut? yeah? >> i think so. i think that it was discussed at the meeting as chair powell said in the press conference, there was a large majority for holding, but with this information, i'm pretty sure they would cut. >> any wrinkles in this particular print that make it less concerning than face value? >> i think a little bit. there may have been some impact from the hurricane on job

growth. the labor department said they didn't see anything strong, but you did have a pretty sizable increase in temporary layoffs. there was also an increase in the number of workers who are unable because of weather, so you could have had something that was maybe not massive, but nevertheless contributed. also i would say, the employment population ratio held up. labor force participation up a little bit. but when you take it all together, these are things to keep in mind. it's still clearly softer than expected report. >> you think he's going to go 50 in september? >> no, we still think they're going to go 25 in september. we do now expect consecutive cuts in the remainder of 2024. september, november, december. we pulled forward one 25 basis point cut. 50 is a possibility if you get further weakness between now and the meeting and there is another employment report.

the case for 50 might be maybe they should have done 25 basis points at the meeting on wednesday, so they're already a little bit behind and they have to catch up. and the funds rate is very high relative to a lot of the incoming information. not just on the labor market but also on inflation. we've seen a large improvement in inflation, wage growth is down to 3.6% in this report on year on year basis. unit labor cost growth over the last four quarters is 0.5%. the inflation mandate, they're very close. >> are we going to look back on this period and say, fed made a mistake and they should have gone sooner and it could have prevented more fallout? >> i think they should have gone on wednesday and published a piece, you know, a couple weeks ago -- >> why wait? >> that said why wait? i think it would have been better to go earlier and i think now it is -- it does make sense to, you know, move to significantly lower rates. i think there is a case that needs to be discussed for going

more quickly than the glacial sort of normalizization in the dot blot. we will still get more information before the next meeting so we don't have to make that decision right now. >> i would draw your attention to -- i know you're not here to talk about stocks per se, but some of the bank action, wells down to the 200-day. that's going to be the first time since november. we mentioned citi earlier down 6%. are you beginning to think more about delinquencies and credit quality? >> not -- i wouldn't say i'm very worried about it. there's been some deterioration and if the labor market deteriorates more, yes, that will add to it. you know, equity prices, i mean that's, obviously, a different discussion. that does feed into financial conditions. so far the discussion has been around whether financial conditions are too loose for them to cut. that can, obviously, change quickly. you know, people aren't asking

that question any more. at this point i would still keep the deterioration in perspective. financial conditions haven't tightened up. >> are we getting ahead of ourselves? to carl's point apollo leader in private credit the stock is down 10% right now i guess on credit concerns. are we just rapidly going through things a bit too fast here in your opinion in terms of really worrying how deep this downturn could be? >> yeah. i mean i don't have enough insight at that micro level. i would say that there's been some deterioration in credit quality. i would expect some continued deterioration if the labor market continues to soften. but at this point it doesn't look dramatic to me. >> we follow your recession odds and they have been low. do they change after a week like this with the ism and the jobs report? >> well, we've been saying 15%. i do think that this probably adds a little bit. i still think it's well below 50%. very far away from thinking that

we're going into a recession, but, you know, at the margin the data has been weaker and that, of course, means there is at least a little bit of a change. >> and why do you think we're far away from recession? >> because i still think this business cycle is one in which, you know, the slow down in the inflation in particular has been driven by supply side improvement. i also think the fed could cut a lot more. i mean they have 525 basis points of cuts. while i don't expect a 50 basis points at the next meeting they could deliver easing if necessary. >> jan, important day and we'll watch closely to see how your views get adjusted in the coming days. thanks. jan hat szius. don't miss a fresh read from the fed when goolsbee joins "squawk box" on monday at 8:30 eastern

time. >> he's been the one itch fog are a cut. i feel like this might send him over the edge. that big rotation we've been seeing, the russell 2000, down 4% now, down 7% for the week. doesn't really hold up when you have concerns about the economy. apple shares, though, they're holding on to gains in the mark selloff. steefb kovach caught up with ceo tim cook about the quarter and what he heard. hi. >> we're seeing shares up 2.5%. the big news out of this report is apple is growing again after reporting their sales declines in five out of six quarters. sales were up 5% in the june quarter. and that's going to continue because the company says to expect similar top line growth for this september quarter that we're in right now, but that growth likely won't come from the iphone. services seem to be picking up much of the slack. apple said it's going to have another quarter of double-digit growth for the services segment. and, of course, everyone's looking to the iphone 16 cycle which the street believes will see quite a boost with the launch of apple's ai features

this fall and i spoke with ceo tim cook on these results and asked him what demand signals he's basically getting following the ai announcement they made in june. now he said that's not going to be totally clear until apple's intelligence features actually launch but did say he thinks it's going to make for a compelling reason for people to upgrade their phones. beyond that is china, of course. sales were still down 6.5% for the quarter. a bit of an improvement from a quarter ago. the ai launch is going to be important as well since chinese customers tend to buy when cool new features debut. it's not going to be easy for apple to launch ai there. the government needs to give its blessing before that could happen. i asked cook about that ai rollout in china, and he told me, quote, we're working on exactly what we will do there and there are definitely regulatory questions there that we have to respond to and we're working constructively on those. on capex, of course, a huge theme, apple bucking the trend of its big tech peers.

cook told me ai capex increased but overall capex fell in the first nine months of this fiscal year versus last year. it's a much different strategy that others leveraging the iphone platform for ai versus building out all the infrastructure itself. for perspective perspective her microsoft for the quarter was r $19 billion in the last three months. apple was $6.5 billion for the last nine months, guys. >> steve, thanks. important day. almost taking a backseat to the macro. important to watch. sticking with tech, we continue to watch shares of intel plunge following the company's big miss on earnings, the suspension to the dif dented, head count reduction, around 15,000 employees. our jon fortt caught up with pat gelsinger and discussed that decision. >> this is the most substantial restructuring of intel since, i'll say, the memory

microprocessor four decades ago. we have laid out an audacious journey of rebuilding this company, and we're going to get that done. and today's announcement is accelerating the financial piece of that. even as we build on the product and process capabilities that we've put in place. >> don't miss more of that interview this afternoon on k "closing bell: overtime." gelsinger said serious decisions are the most consequential in the history of the company. >> not great commentary on this as well. he's gone through other restructuring since ceo. the stock based on early morning, it's down almost 65% since he became ceo. the mizuho trading note says the gelsinger magic show is now out of tricks. the audience is rushing to the box office to ask for their money back. >> yeah, a lot of analyst community has decided they're no longer interested in trying to support the stock, to your point. it's an $89 billion market

value. the story is one that will be written about, i would assume, in textbooks in terms of missed opportunities, poor decision-making by previous ceos of this company, which was one once of the largest market cap companies in the world. obviously, the leader in cpus. the huge demand of chips as a result of the pc revolution, in ways, but failed to make the successful transition when it came to the fabs producing the sophisticated chips, in terms of width, so to speak. >> there was some recent optimism around the chips act, a key beneficiary. gelsinger lobbied hard for that on capitol hill. onjust a value proposition. in a world where semiconductors are getting more expensive by the day, but it does feel like reading the commentary today, there's just lack of condition in the recovery story no matter what value is. >> without a doubt. let's continue to talk sort of broadly speaking about chips.

and tech overall. nvidia shares are down 8% for the week. it's been an up and down move there. overall down 8%. we are joined to talk about some of these moves, whether nvidia, apple, amazon. i'll start where you want. let's start on amazon, if we can, because i think you have a buy rating on that. that's taking it hard today, down about 11%. typically we would sit here, if they had accelerating quarter and we would be talking about a stock price up, so what happened? >> the consumer side is weak. the aws is by far the market leader in the most important technology market. its growth accelerated from 17% to 19%, and importantly, they are catching up to azure, microsoft azure in terms of a.i. capabilities and the ability to

sell those to their customers. aws is doing phenomenally well at very high march fwins. the consumer is still a good business. if there's a consumer slowdown, which it's abundantly clear it is, they won't be able to escape it. they'll do better than most consumer companies but a consumer slowdown will still be a drag on the retail business. at this point, and we'll talk about nvidia in a second, nvidia's market cap is bigger than amazon, in spite of the fact that aws is a bigger business that will grow faster over the next few years, and is not cyclical, is recurring. just aws is enough to justify the current valuation and the consumer business still valuable even if it will grow a little slower. >> clearly you continue to be quite positive on the name. on amazon, again, this satellite manufacturing for project kuper, i hope i'm pronouncing it correctly, that may have been an

impact on cost. is that an ongoing expense? >> i think it's one of the items they listed. think of it as part of the pride bundle. they want to wrap a lot of different capabilities for their consumer that are not just products in order to keep people compelled within prime and internet access is a good one. strategically it's important for them. and they'll continue to invest in it. but it's a small drag. the bigger items were international profitability was down, as they expand. domestic profitability was fine. there are some puts and takes around stock-based comp, et cetera. with aipz what we've learned over the years is they don't really care what we have to say about short-term margins and retail. when they invest, they invest. over time they can deliver 6 plus% on margins and that's what they will do. and any given quarter, we might not get that. >> in the time we have left, all

the hyperscalers continue to commit enormous amounts of capex. that leads me to nvidia. we don't have a lot of time here but give me your take. >> short-term nvidia will have record results this quarter, probably next one, but we've had plenty of signs about why that will not last next year and the year after that. when companies say they're overinvesting, that means they'll invest less nengs year. when apple says that -- apple, by the way, most generative a.i. will be done on an apple device, none of it will involve nvidia gpus. microsoft just guided to a decline in margins because of how much they're overinvesting. they would have to lay off 10,000 people a year for every year they overinvest. they can't keep this up. at some point they'll have to say we have enough and invest a lot less. the way this is going to play

out is when microsoft says we have great demand signals, what they're saying is open a.i. is telling us they need ten more times for computer gpt 5 or gpt 6. >> you're obviously echoing some of the concerns out there amongst investors in terms of that wall being hit in spending that has impacted shares of nvidia during the course of the week. we have a lot more going on in the broader markets impacting stocks across the board. we'll continue our live market coverage of the selloff right after this.

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earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] good friday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. you can see the s&p down 2% plus here, 2.5%. russell 4% decline. yeelsdz are the other part of the story in the wake of the jobs number today, which did miss. unemployment goes to 4.3. ten-year dipped below