alone. that would be a fumble by bumble. >> a lot of people asking if the dating apps are officially over. >> my sister said she sometimes using task rabbit. you get guys to help move furniture, but they're burly and good with -- you know. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." ever everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> i'm scott wapner live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. the make or break hour begins with the rally back and whether you are believe in it. we will ask our experts. another strong day for stocks. show you the score ward with 60 minutes to go in regulation. sharply high across the board, call it the highs of the day. relief from the labor markets today is the reason why. jobless claims came in lighter than expected and that eased some concerns about the state of the u.s. economy. yields moving higher today. the ten-year is back at 4%. all of that suggestive of some kind of relief. there it is. 3.99. we will call it 4.

all s&p sectors positive on the day as well. gains are fairly even across the board so it is a nice, broad day of gains. mega cap tech among the spaces jumping today. we will show you some of the names there. apple, amazon and nvidia among them, nvidia up nearly 6%. financial stocks have a good showing as well. we can show you some of those. jpmorgan, goldman and morgan stanley the big winners. single stock standouts include palantir on the back of international and guidance. eli lilly is popping after its earnings today. that stock is good for 10%. how about under armor? we don't talk about it that often. there's reason to today, up more than 19%, best day since 2018 and that's after turning a surprise profit. it takes us to the "talk of the tape," the state of the market, whether it is time to buy the dip or prepare for more intense volatility ahead. liz young thomas is sofi's head of investment strategy. gabriella santos, chief market strategist for jpmorgan as et

management. lauren good win with new york life vests. good to have you here on post nine. is the worst over, liz? was monday one of the panic attacks and we left it in the rearview? >> i think it was a panic attack. i don't think it is over. i think this yen thing will resurface again. what we learned this week and what we're learning today is that i think it is the bounce people expected to see on tuesday, and we tried a couple of times. we tried on tuesday, we tried on wednesday. interday we got high and gave it back by end of the day. this is the bounce people are waiting for. we have learned we're not bouncing for bouncing's sake. we need good news to move forward and to prove that the rally is durable. today we got some good news, but the interesting part about what happened today is that it was just on the initial jobless claims data. in the trailing one-year period this is the biggest move we've had on initial jobless claims data. suddenly it is important. so that tells me we are even

more sensitive to all of the data that's coming in, which also tells me that we're going to see more volatility as we get data that might conflict. >> you could though, gabriella, say the whole thing started with one data point, which was overblown. the labor report on last friday. everybody said, oh, my gosh, the labor market is falling apart, we might be closer to a recession than we thought, the fed is going to cut too late, none of it is going to matter because we're going into recession, time to sell stocks. then you put japan on top of it and you had a sunday of madness on monday morning. >> that's right. i think as you describe, it is a combination of factors, right. some of them are fundamental. if we think back july 11th with the june cpi that was softer than expected followed by additional softer data prints, culminating with the jobs report last friday. in addition to that, you also had some good but not great mega cap tech earnings. that disappointed high expectations. then you had this really

powerful unwind of the yen, specifically carry trade, as you had the interest rate differentials collapse and the volatility double in the yen. so i think it is a combination of factors. some fundamental that were embers and then some technical that really through fuel on the fire. so in terms of is the worst behind us, it depends not just on the data but also how far along we are in that unwind of the carry trade, concentrated positioning and unwind of momentum. >> it is remarkable, lauren, the comeback we have had because it felt so awful on monday morning and it was such a dramatic sell-off. week-to-date the nasdaq is almost positive, the s&p is almost positive, the dow is almost positive. i mean we are less than 1% down on the week for those majors. now, the russell is 1.33 percent negative on the week but it tells you the story of the rebound. do you believe in it or not? >> i do believe in the rebound because, as you know, i do

expect we're slowing towards recession, but the indicators that we use to determine that we're there simply have not been met. we are looking at unemployment claims above the 260 level. that hasn't happened. we would need to see earnings growth deteriorate where we've had, frankly, remarkable stability. so the macro data just doesn't support a story where you see consistent down turns in the u.s. equity market. i think it is very important though that a market narrative with that jobs report on friday has fundamentally changed. that was the jobs report that told us that we don't need to worry about overheating and inflation anymore, and it is a broader deterioration in the labor market that really matters for market activity moving forward. so bad news is now bad news, good news is now good news. i completely agree with liz that we are likely to get whipsawed around on data until the market resets. again, i believe that's when we move closer to recession. >> you to many people hit the

nail on the head when you talk about earnings growth, and coming out of theseason earnings growth was 11%. so we're going to decide to sell stocks and say we will have this massive drawdown in stocks with earnings growth of 11%, and then you put on top of that the fed is going to cut rates to be negative. >> earnings growths for the second quarter has undoubtedly been stronger than people expected and i think that's good. i don't think anybody was worried about the second quarter. the guidance hasn't been great, and the estimates for third quarter have come down considerably and that's where concerns are coming in. the way i would see this playing out, and right now i think where we are in the situation from a macro perspective is we're right on the cusp. i think i put in my notes this is like game seven. we are at the cusp if things stay exactly as they are we are okay, but we have to find out if they're going to tip into dangerous territory. i think the labor market is the most important piece of that. if labor deteriorates faster than people think it will, faster than consumers think it will, that's what makes people

nervous. >> faster than the fed thinks it will. >> it is already there. >> it is -- >> already there. >> i mean you heard only a week ago that the fed chair himself described the labor market as simply normalizing. >> yeah. >> that they're in a good place, that he's not overly concerned about where the economy is. >> and that was before friday's data, and the normalizing piece of it that i think he's referring to is that we are back to a ratio of 1.2 jobs open to unemployed persons, which is where we were before the pandemic. so that's more balanced. the unemployment rate right now is already above where their year-end forecast is. so we have to expect in september when we get the next summary of economic predictions or projections from them, that forecast will go you have. it is cooler than they thought. so if the labor market continues to cool and consumers get nervous, they pull back on their spending, that affects corporate profits and you see margin compression. it doesn't mean we will have a big contraction or big recession but it does affect earnings down

the road. >> it has a run-on effect, too, lauren of sell-off in the stock market affecting consumer sentiment and psyche and spending i so you can't afford to have a big upset prolonged anyway in the market because of the impacts it would have on the economy itself. >> that's right. i think it is such an important point because we often think of the economy leading the market, and that is for the most part true. but we have an environment where thebifurcation we have seen in the consumer, where lower income consumers are struggling, delinquency rates are rising and upper income consumers are still he spending quite well. why is that happening? it is happening at least in part because equity returns over the last few years have been very good and people are earning interest income. they're not spending their interest income. >> if you have had a lot of money in cash, you have made a lot of money on cash. >> exactly. what we found in research is a

5% deterioration in the equity mark, if sustained, can lead to a half percent decline in consumer spending annualized off the gdp number. that's a meaningful difference, so a meaningful risk to the economy at this point is a pull back in the equity market. >> there's a lot, gabriella, that could happen, might happen, worried it could happen, cautious it could happen. that's been going on for the better part of a year, and a lot of the concerns just haven't happened. >> exactly. >> atlanta fed gdp is at 2.9%, that was as of yesterday. again, not that the fed hasn't been wrong on things, so i know when i say well, the fed says this, people say, yeah, but they were wrong on their trajectory of inflation at the beginning. fine, give them that. they were wrong. but they don't today seem overly concerned at all about where the economy is. the gdp numbers would suggest that not having concern is warranted. the labor market still did more

than 100,000 jobs. we're nowhere near where it seems economic calamity. >> exactly. i think the levels are still good. the economic and earnings growth rates are good, but we did learn three things. there are minor changes. i think a lot of the technicals are kind of exploding the magnitude of the moves. there were three things we learned. number one, the delta. clearly economic momentum is slowing including in the labor market. so for a fed that's very concerned about risk management, that means to them they should normalize policy a little bit faster. we do think it is right for the market to price in 100 basis points of cuts this year, 100 next year. the number one thing is to increase duration, and we saw last week huge inflows into enter media duration fixed income for people sitting in cash. the second thing we learned, if the momentum is slowing that means recession risk goes up. it is easier to tip into recession. that's why we've been saying for a while it is too early for the

small cap and low quality cyclical trade. number three, what we learned is expectations matter again, which means that even though the growth rate for mega cap tech is great, all right, but expectations are high, positioning is concentrated and you can get powerful unwinds. that goes back to the theme of broadening exposure in the market. >> when you say that though, you suggest too -- i'm looking at the notes to give our production team today. diversify away from what is working, and you talk about the mag seven being included in that. >> exactly. i think we have talked about this for a while, right? these magnificent seven companies were presenting a third of the equity market. great, their earnings were also going up, but those represent a quarter of the market. so i think it makes sense to expect a little bit more, a, dispersion within that group and active trading within it. number two, just a little bit -- a period of a certain correction or even slower upward climb for them from here, and cash from

other sectors. we saw it in action. we had an 8.5% correction in the market since mid-july, except the high expectation mag seven were down 14 and the rest of the market was down 4. that really speaks to the need for actually broadening out exposure because you get whipsawed really badly otherwise. >> how are you thinking about sector sort, where you really should be leaning in, if anywhere, and where you should be stepping back? >> i completely agree with the points gabriella is making around portfolio construction. i think the number one thing is not to sell on days like monday when you lock in your losses and essentially move into cash when effectively i believe investors, as the fed is moving to cut rates, should be doing exactly the opposite. so i agree with adding duration. the way that we're tackling that is looking at short duration in credit like high yield for example because it is an environment where capturing higher rates can be very

attractive, but using the municipal curve to add longer duration exposure where infrastructure and other areas are particularly effective. in equity, the reality over the sort of soft landing last year, adding exposure to international, et cetera, diversified global, cycle, these are ideas that are attractive. but when you see a global market that is starting to lean risk off, that diversification doesn't particularly help you. so the u.s. i believe for the next six months is likely to be the place to be on balance. >> how, liz, are youthinking about this? your con sstituency, i suppose, given sofi skews a little longer, your cohort of investor class is a little longer, i'm suggesting. so what is the message to that investor base today? >> yes, so 65ish percent of our investors are between ages of 20 and 40, so definitely skews longer. obviously that means they have a longer time horizon and they can withstand more of the bumps.

however, the research we have done shows we know they are also overweight a lot of the mag seven, a lot of the headline makers. so there have been so many conversations and things about research that we've done, questions we've asked them, have you diversified, and people are more interested -- it happened over the last year or so, more interested in stuff they weren't interested before. suddenly wondering, how do i buy gold, how do i buy treasuries, and that's a good sign. even after the volatility we saw in 2022, surveys told us that they were still planning on investing more in 2023. so all of this consternation about younger investors, when they go through a period of volatility will stop investing and pull out of the market i don't think is all that accurate. but there is still a lot to be said for making sure that they're diversified into sectors, and if it is names that's fine, but sectors that are going to do well in an environment like i think we are going to see in the fall, which has a lot to do with the yield curve. so i talk about the yield curve a lot. i mean today we are only inverted about five or six basis points. that's the shallowest it has

been this whole cycle. this week is shallowest it has been. >> on monday we deinverted for a short period of time. >> for a whisper, yes. this entire week it is the shallowest inversion we have seen. during those periods which is a bull steepening period, you want to have sectors like utility, staples and health care and diversify away from the headline-making sectors we talk about so much. >> i think what is interesting, gabriella, you say industrials are a good place to be. so you can't be too worried about the trajectory of the economy if you are talking about industrial stock and things more cyclically natured like that. >> i think it is warranted to clarify so many things within industrial. some very cyclical, very low into the manufacturing cycle which we don't think is picking up yet, but there's growth within the industrial sector. it means to look for growth elsewhere, and within industrials are some really, really interesting themes, part

of it related to artificial intelligence, related to the energy transition. so companies that provide the electrical equipment needed, for example, or hvac systems to cool down all of the energy that data centers consume. so it is more of a growth tilt there, and i would add to that health care as well. it has defensive characteristics plus growth characteristics in certain areas related to the glp1 revolution plus the a.i. adoption and discovery of new treatments. >> is don't fight the fed different this time because we're worried about cuts coming for the wrong reason or the -- gabriella says we are getting 100 basis points of cuts. i don't know what your own projection is, but you have had since 2009 a don't-fight-the-fed mentality as an investor. why does that need to change today? >> i don't think it should change today. in fact, as we look, you know, likely a few -- just a few weeks ahead of the fed's first rate

cut, and, frankly, hopefully for all of us it doesn't come sooner. i think the bar for that is incredibly high. but let's say september 18th is our day, the number one thing that means, we have been talking about adding duration, is moving out of cash. that is a challenge -- it's been a really challenging story to tell over the course of the year when cash gets you 5% or higher. that has already started to come down. so the opportunity for investors to -- whether it is lock into higher rates, rotate into sectors that make more sense in the late part of a late cycle, that opportunity will start to move into the rearview mirror. so these up-and-down days that i think we're liable to see over the next few weeks are a good opportunity to start to make the transitions we are talking about today. >> okay. this is a great point that you make. let's just say you got into a six-month money market at 5% and now it is coming to maturity. okay. you look at a picture that says rates are going to continue to come down.

what am i supposed to do with that cash? do i roll it into a lower interest rate cd, another money market? do i go into fixed income? do i say, this is a great buy because the fed is going to be cutting interest rates and i know what i have always heard, don't fight that? , what do i do? >> i think it is all about what the cash is for. if it is for liquidity need six months for now, cash is the right instrument. if it is for a long-term goal, invest that cash. just to lock in the income because six months from now we don't think cash rates will be at 5% any more. they could be at 4%. 12 months from now they could be at 3%. there's that reinvestment risk versus locking in, for example, u.s. aggregate yield of 4.6% for longer and getting some protection. if the goal is growth and there's still scope to dial up the risk in portfolios, then we think equities are still a good place to be, albeit not as

concentrated as a passive index would have you. >> how, liz, would you adjust that? i feel like there's a fair amount of people who, you know, maybe they're in longer term money markets and things of the like, but, you know, let's just say you are in a six-month for example and it is maturing now, what do you do? >> well, i mean if i make the assumption somebody is in a money market because the yield, the interest was attractive. >> sure, i think that's the right assumption. >> then i assume that they still want income and yield that's attractive. but perhaps some upside if we're saying that the yield is going to go away. so first of all i think you do it gradually, especially because everything that we've just said, as we know that volatility is -- we are probably more ripe for volatility in the next few months than we were three or four months ago. so you do it gradually. i think in the equity market you focus on dividend-paying stocks because you are still going to get that yield. many of the sectors where dividend-paying stocks are concentrated are not the ones that led that really strong rally coming into the second

half of this year. so the rotation that i think we're talking about, too, at least the one i know i'm focusing on in sectors, does skew towards those dividend-paying stocks. and then the other parts of it, i think i'd still buy the treasury curve. i know i have been saying that for a long time but i would still buy the treasury curve. >> the two year. >> it is not inverted it yet and it is going to keep going down as soon as they cut rates. why not? >> lauren, you say put money in international stocks, don't ignore? >> look, i think that -- not i think, i know that most investors are chronically underinvested in international equity. so from a structural basis i don't love a structural underweight, but, again, i do think as the economy slows globally, the u.s., frankly both in equity and in bond, has historically been the place to be. so we're pausing on adding incremental overweight at this time on international equity. >> all right. ladies, we will leave it there. i appreciate everybody be here at post nine.

see everybody seen. lauren, gabriella and liz young thomas here at post nine. now to seema mody. tell us what you see? >> shares of bumble are tanking. the data app provider that targets millennial women is having the worst day ever after postin posting disappointing revenue guidance. a look at the stock, down 30%. now, another stock having its worst day ever is jfrog. shares of the software supply chain company are plummeting after the company cut its full-year guidance and reported mixed quarterly results. shares down 28%, scott. >> all right. seema, appreciate that. seema mody. we are getting breaking news out of delta. steve covac has it. what is it, steve? >> delta put out a new ak filing with financial details of the impact of the crowdstrike

outage. let me go over the numbers in here. they're saying the revenue -- sorry. direct revenue impact estimated for the september quarter will be $380 million plus other expenses of $170 million. so that's pretty much in line with about $500 million or soy that ceo ed bastian claimed was caused by the outage. on top of that we got a naim from delta's attorney, david boies, pushing back on what was said over the weekend. i'll read part. there is no basis, none, to suggest that delta was in any way responsible for the faulty software that crashed systems around the world, including delta's. later he goes on to write, their efforts were hindered by crowdstrike's failure to promptly provide an automatic solution or the finformation needed to facilitate the efforts. pushing back on some of the other claims that crowdstrike -- by the way, microsoft had similar claims against delta in

a letter earlier this week such as when crowdstrike ceo reached out to delta's ceo and didn't get a response, david boies saying that they had lost confidence in crowdstrike. crowdstrike claiming it is only liable based under contract on single-digits based on the instrument. bo bois is saying it is potential negligence that could lead to more damages than the single digits. those are the high points there, scott. >> we appreciate the update, to be continued as the saga continues as well. steve novak, thank you. we are getting started on "closing bell." up next, tech trying to claw back some more of the losses in today's session. doing a good job of it, too. what could be in store for the sector in head. lo toney back for where he thinks valuations could be headed from here. that's after the break.

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powering 5 years of savings. powering possibilities. ♪ ♪ we're back now with a news alert from richmond fed president tom barken. cnbc economic correspondent steve liesman has the headlines for us. what is he saying? >> a warning before i give you headlines. if you are looking for a fed official whose hair is on fire, looking to cut rates you have the wrong guys. richmond president tom barkin cool as a cucumber saying there's a narrow path right now, risks on the table for both sides of the dual mandate, both inflation and employment side. he said the economy is healthy. there's time to figure out if it is a normalizing economy that will allow you to normalize rates over time. he goes on to say it doesn't work to lean too far in one direction and have to overcorrect in the other. so he's going to take this time. he said we're closing in on normal numbers for inflation and

unemployment. it makes sense to me, he says, to take the time and see what we learn over the next several weeks between meetings, kind of foreclosing the idea some people were crazy about earlier this week about an emergency cut. he said firms decided to cut back on hiring but his contacts say he's not hearing about firing. job growth settled down but the economy is still adding jobs. he made headlines on friday, you will remember, when he said, hey, 114,000, that's not too bad, even while the market freaked out about it. consumers he said are still spending but choosing to do things like trading down. scott, i will leave it there. i will still listen to him and come back with more headlines but he is decidedly a cool cucumber when it comes to cutting rates. >> can i ask you quickly, because the headlines you gave where he started off talking about risks being on both sides, and clearly still focusing on the inflation picture, it sounds a little off sides to what we heard from the fed chair last wednesday, even incrementally

maybe they're in a bit of a different place. am i reading that wrong? how would you assess that? >> you could read it that way, scott. i read it a little bit more in line with what powell was saying but a little bit more cautious in the sense that, hey, i'm looking at this, i think we could make a case to cut, but i want to be darn sure it is the right case. that's the way i hear barkin. it is also because i know barkin a little bit and how he talks and i know how cautious he is, i know how he has his ear to businesses and keeps talking to them. he is probably going to be in line. he is a voter this year with a fed that wants to cut, but he's not out there saying, look, it is so obvious, i still got a half a point problem on inflation, so we still need to be heading down. i think it is important to read that comment where he says, we want to make sure we don't go one way and have to overcorrect the other way. that's a concern on the mind of other fed officials as well. >> yeah. all right. that's good insight. i appreciate that. steve liesman, thank you. >> sure, scott.

>> our senior economics correspondent. tech is seeing a nice bounce today. the nasdaq is up nearly 3%. chips are leading the charge back. nvidia and broadcom among the names seeing strong gains today. meta and apple moving higher. can the momentum for the sector continue despite a tumultuous start to the week. joining me now is lo toney, a cnbc contributor. welcome back. >> thanks for having me back. >> it has been a tumultuous six weeks, five-and-a-half weeks really because july wasn't good to that trade at all. what do you make of where we corrected to for some of the mega cap names? >> well, everyone was taking a look at where earnings are playing out. there's so much enthusiasm around a.i., and as we continue to see more data and proof points around not only the experimentation, which a lot of companies almost need to do as a way to make sure that they don't get blind sided, but we're now starting to also see the deployment of a.i. not only in companies that we would expect

to see like the microsofts, the alphabets of the world, but we're starting to see other companies integrate the technology and moving away from pure experimentation to actual deployment, into more efficiencies in their operations and better experiences on the front end, the user experience side. >> are we now going to scrutinize the spending on a.i. in ways that we hadn't in prior quarters? because that feels like what's taking place after these most recent earnings reports. >> yeah, i think that's next and that's the logical step. i think, you know, everyone has been talking so much about it without giving anyone the retail especially, but even the analysts the ability to kind of peel the onion back a little bit and understand what is really happening inside of these companies. now, when i talked to my network who have now a lot of them moved on to senior positions within, you know, ctos and cios of big companies, what i'm hearing is that initially, especially the early part of this year, latter

part of '23, again, a lot of it was experimentation because no one wanted to be caught blind sided. now when i'm rerngturning back them they're saying, hey, lo, you know what? we're starting to deploy some of this and we're feeling really good about the results that we're seeing. so i think we will again begin to see more and more proof points. i think we will see the analysts prying in and i think we will see the companies that are actually benefitting be willing to start to show the fruits of that labor. >> do you think through the tumult in the space most recently that valuations have corrected to a more reasonable place or do you feel like that has more room to go? we are across the board, you know, much lower than we were on a ten-year historical basis, let's say, for forward p/e s of all of the names. >> here is the challenge. the companies that comprise the bulk of the market cap are the magnificent seven, and if you

look at those companies, since there are very few pure-play opportunities, the magnificent seven is going to guest most of the attention because that's where people feel the benefits will accrue. so those are always going to outpace. i think people are looking for these earnings to catch up a little bit, and even just take a breather. i mean these companies are like taking on so much investor interest, rightfully so because, again, i always like to say these opportunities are so large and often we underestimate how large they actually are and how quickly we can get there. we're moving very fast on a.i. and this opportunity looks really large. >> let me lastly ask you before you go, i mean the bankers and market players would have you believe that the capital ma markets, ipos and deals and things of the like, especially ipos, are close to returning maybe not to full normal but in a much, much better place than

they've been for the better part of the last couple of years. you are on the front lines of this, too, based on the companies that you have deployed capital to. what do you see? >> so, i remember we had a conversation about this last year and i was a little bearish on it, the market for ipos fully coming back this year. i remain firm on that. but, look, we have seen some great companies come out. the bar has increased. the challenge that we face is that the pipeline includes some great names that everyone wants to see come out, most notably strike. there are other great companies in as well. turo is a great example. i worked with andre, the ceo at ebay, and i love the marketplace models because they seem to persist over time without the burden of the capital investment. the world's largest auto rental without having to actually own that equipment. i think we'll see more come out in the year '25. here is why. we have so many in the pipeline that raised money, so many

companies private in the pipeline that raised money at significantly higher valuations than were justified, and a lot of those companies need time to grow into those valuations so that they can provide a good return for their investors. >> it is good to talk to you as always, lo. we'll see you soon. >> thanks for having me. >> next plexo's lo toney here on "closing bell." the stocks are rallying again in today's session, but can the comeback be sustained? we'ldiuson il scsit with hsbc's max ketner. we will do it after the break.

we're staging another rebound today. the major averages now are further clawing back more of this week's losses, but will the latest bounce have any staying power? let's ask max kettner, hsbc's global research chief, multi-asset strategist. welcome back. >> thank you. >> what do you think, staying power or not? >> absolutely. i do think so. i think, you know, we're still sort of waiting for the absolute definitive buying signals, so some of our shorter-term signals are still only at sort of neutral level. really what we're trying to do is we're trying to absolutely nail the timing. let's be honest, when woo e loot next week's resale data, it is binary. we get for example, we get a setback and that's perhaps the absolute low, yeah.

but if we look at a three to six-month ohr sigh don through one or two weeks, then, in fact, i would say what you guys were discussing before about, you know, about some of the fed being cool as a cucumber. i think that's exactly what we need right now because the data, in fact, are really not warranting that kind of panic that the market has been displaying for most of this week. even the high-frequency data, we see things like the staffing index, the weekly labor market data turned a bit higher, weekly retail data turned a bit higher. even all of that is pretty good. there's no real sign of imminent collapse or an imminent recession. >> do you think this whole thing was an overreaction? >> absolutely, i do think so. i think when we look, for example, at, you know, what that's driven, i think really it was largely what we sort of describe as a triple whammy where you had, you know, essentially the bank of japan, this unwind of the global carry

trade where you've got a bit of rotation out of tech, out of a.i. a couple of names last week during the earning season not being as fantastic as we had all hoped for, and then, of course, you have these recession concerns and the rule being triggered. everyone was so obsessed about it. all of that, of course, and then though threes things hitting in august in very pretty poor liquidity conditions. so to me i think we could be waking up in a month and sort of think, well, that was a bad dream, but nothing more than that. >> but how do you know that the unwind, if you want to call it that, of positioning relative to japan has run its course? >> yeah, i think part of the picture that we can track is when we look at the japanese yen and we look, again, sort of typically across asset drivers or frankly against yield differentials, when we look at yields against japan rate differentials, clearly what has been happening since april we have seen an unusual and pretty

unjustified gap between the two opening up. so the yen was depreciating further even though, you know, the yield differential was already heading the other way around, and that gap's really starting to close almost entirely. i think as soon as that has been closed entirely, i think that's a pretty good basis for saying, hey, you know what? now there's no more sort of big, big divergence there, there's no more big exuberance there. that's probably close to the end of the unwind of that carry trade. >> all right. we will leave it there, max. thank you. see you soon. max kettner. up next, we are tracking the biggest movers heading into the close today. seema mody is standing by for us once again. hi, seema. scott, obesity drug stocks are breaking out yet again. we will tell you why after this short break.

let than 15 from the closing bell. back to seema mody for the stocks she is watching. tell us what you see. >> scott, eli lilly shares are on track for their biggest intraday gain of the year following blow-out results of the company's obesity drug. according to the company, 50% of employers now are offering anti-obesity medication coverage, thereby increasing demand. >> that day is coming where this will be universally covered. we are not there yet, but i think over the coming months and

years -- >> looking at shares up about 9% on the day. switching to dutch bros, sinking more than 20% after the coffee chain said it expects new store openings for the year to range between 150 and 165. that came in much lower than what the company's range and also overshadowed a top and bottom line beat for the quarter. stock down 20%. don't miss our exclusive interview with dutch bros ceo christine barone on "mad money." >> won't miss that. that's seema mody. still ahead, navigating travel trade. expedia is ahead of its earnings atrte.im wh to watch for in that stock's report. what it might mean for the rest of the space. "the bell" coming right back.

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♪ ♪ getting some more headlines from richmond fed president tom barkin. let's go back to steve liesman with what he is staying now. steve. >> scott, remember i said he was cool about things. check this out. he said it doesn't feel like there's been a cataclysmic event talking about the market movements over the past couple of weeks. he notes markets have come back to fmoc and their view of the outlook for race, rather than the other way around, and i can back it up telling you that the scott the chance of a 50 is now 56 to 44. remember, we were talking about odds on of 90% or 80% of two 50s in a row. that's not the way the market is priced any longer. he said it is hard to make the case something monumental happened on the equity side, making note of what happened today of course and the past

week, the calming of markets and the rally today. back to you. >> good update, steve. >> sure. e ugp next, running you throh thkey metrics to watch out for when we take you inside the market zone, next. your shipping manager left to “find themself.” leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed.

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the prior two days we faded from the same levels and today held. the highs in the s&p 5312, 5330, 5328. we are basically closing at the highs, we lost 1% or 2% off the last two days, incrementally positive and lows each day. the market hasn't done anything in the last couple of days to being incrementally worrisome. it said essentially, okay, we're turning around above the lows, trying to figure out -- it is not a furious buying response but enough. do i think it suggests that a lot of, you know, that really intense urgent liquidation dynamic has passed? i don't believe really in all clears. we didn't really get an obvious setup that says it is a mega low, but better than nothing and certainly responding to firmer economic data. absolutely remains the case that good news remains good news in the economy. >> you heard warmin with liesman bringing us the headlines, liesman describing barkin cool as a cucumber.

an interim move? no. >> easy to say now. maybe on monday morning it seemed like you might entertain it. >> quwell, yes. >> i think it makes sense. the fed is not going to move at the speed in just that acutely responsive to short-term market moves. we didn't see a lot in the way of stress in the money markets in all of the stuff they watch. on the other hand there's a lot of debate as to what they should be doing and whether they waited too long. >> oh, yeah, whether they've already waited too long, for certain. back to you in a second. steve covac on take-two interactive. what to look out for? >> yes, it is all about the six and that the launch is likely to be the biggest entertainment product ever. now, last quarter they narrowed next year's launch window to fall of 2025. previously they just gave the full calendar year. so pay attention for more detailed launch window for next year or if it slips into 2026. just buckle up and watch out. take two is also going to hollywood. tomorrow "borderlands" hits theaters, based on another video

game that take two publishes. hollywood has been obsessed lately with video game ip, the "super mario brothers movie" made a ton of money for parent company universal and anyone tind o nintendo last year. >> appreciate that. seema mody, your space has been tumultuous to say the least. we will get another company after the bell here. >> yeah, that's right, scott. expedia shares have fallen about 23% this year on concerns around the tough back drop competition with air b fbnb and booking holdings. it follows disappointing results and with hotel operators issuing week guidance. investors will want to under the vision for expedia, how do you grow a business given a tough

backdrop with americans thinking twice about where they travel and how much they spend. so comments on spending and overall pricing will be key, scott. >> seema, see you in a little bit. seema mody with that. thank you. michael, the evenness of the move today is impressive. >> yes. >> if you say as a sector tech is up 3%, industrials a little more than 2%, health care a little more than 2%, discretionary about 2%, com services a little more than 2%, energy about 2%. >> yeah. >> it is really spread even. >> yeah, and breadth has been four to one for the popssitive the nasdaq and a little less than that. it seemed like choep bppy but n alarming. now, again, we have a lot to prove with this to say it is more than just a bounce at this point. you are still 6% down from the highs on the s&p 500, a little more than that. semis, again, i mentioned midday up almost 7% today. so we'll see if that building into anything or if that's just

a switch high. >> every economic read will take on greater significance here on out. full market here. we are going green obviously across the board. the dow will be close to highs. we're 700 points higher. s&p 500 is going to go out with a gain of 2.5%, but we're strong across the board. see you tomorrow, bring you key earnings with morgan. that bell marks the end of regulation. ventures acquisition corp. ringing the close ig bell at the new york stock exchange and usa gymnastics including gold medalist jordan chiles doing the honors at the nasdaq. scott is going for gold today, erasing the week's losses after tempered fears of an economic slowdown. the tech sector leading the gains. that's the scorecard. i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan. >> coming up this hour, breaking earnings