in other words, they don't want to get caught the way they did with empty shelves not being able to deliver. >> the risk for retailers who can't forecast the future better than any of us as the fed can as they're left with overinventory. >> have a good weekend. >> i love this suit. >> thank you. that's so nice. >> thanks for watching "power lunch." have a good weekend. stay dry, if you can. "closing bell" starts right now. happy friday. welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner from the new york stock exchange. this hour begins with the outlook for stocks as another big year lambs large. it's all taking center stage. we'll likely confirm whether the worst is really over for the markets. we'll ask our experts over the final stretch what is really at stake ahead, including that man right there, tom lee will join me in a moment. in the meantime, let's show you the scorecard with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we're still negative on the week but we are positive on the day.

pretty remarkable, too, what's happened this week given monday's big slide to start everything off. energy, industrials, financials are all positive on the week in what's been a nice snap back for those spaces. you can take a look, energy is a modest loser at this point. it does take us to our talk of the tape. the market's next move and whether this rebound really can be trusted. we're all wondering that, of course. so, let's ask tom lee, he joins us now live. welcome. good to see you. >> great to see you, scott. i look at your notes and you suggest the worst is behind us. what makes you say that? >> we're watching the vix spike to 60 on monday, the third highest reading ever, and the vix futures curve inverted, which was the steepest inversion since prepandemic times. both are starting to normalize. i think the vix as it closes below 20, it hasn't closed yet, and as that vix futures term

structure uninverts, that tells us the worst of the panic is behind us. i don't think it means we won't have ripple effects because we know there are some trapped st bulls and some uncertainty around iran but i think the worst of the selling pressure is behind us. >> how do we know we had just a growth scare and not something more dramatic to come, tom? never mind the unwind of the carry trade. no one knows if that's over either. when you think about those two events, what does itake you think? >> they can check weekless jobless claims because that was a positive surprise on thursday and a lot came from texas. texas had a big drop in weekly claims week over week. the fact that markets reacted so positively thursday to that jobless claims number puts me in

a camp that's one of the big drivers because we had a better than expected claims number and the market pop. i think the growth scare is what's on investors' minds. next week they'll get another weekly claims number. if that's equally improving or stable, i think it's going to give people a lot more conviction. >> what about the unwind of the carry trade? there's no real tell whether that's run its course and that steams to be the obvious catalyst at the beginning of the week for positioning well offsides and it needed to correct itself. has it finished? >> scott, that's a great question. nobody knows how big that carry trade could be. there is a large insurance industry participation in that and i did speak to some insurance executives this past week. their view is, there's a lot of financial institutions that implemented this trade. if it unwinds in an orderly way, it's not disruptive. it's just that if you have weeks

or days like monday or last week, the end of last week, that's very disorderly and that gets very expensive because these insurance companies have to take off these hedges and then they suddenly have unhedged carry trades. >> i want to continue this. you suggest if it unwinds. there's no if. we saw at least the first reverberations from that unwind. that was anything but orderly. what if there really is more of that to come, tom? >> scott, there may be more of it. i think one thing that is messy is the currency hedges because these currency hedges were built for what you call like 1 pe percentile events, 99 percentile standard deviation. they just let them expire. i think central banks can manage

currencies within a one standard deviation ban. it's still important to watch currencies but if it's -- if we're staying in stable and predictable ranges, it qub an orderly unwind. scott, just like the mideast is uncertainty as well. >> what do you make up of this week, the xhen temporary around it, whether it was jeremy siegel saying the fed needs to do a 75 basis point cut in an emergency way. of course, he walked that back with our own jeff cox yesterday evening. ron asana saying the fed needs to say something, like we've got your back from a liquidity standpoint. do they need to do something before september's meeting? >> i think both comments from both ron and jeremy siegel are actually valid, but to me what it speaks of is, i think the

markets, and i think economists are no longer willing to deal with data dependence. i think they want a fed that's more forward looking because that makes them comfortable the fed could respond if conditions deterioration. i think that's the kind of language i'd like to see disappear as we're data dependent so that by necessity they'll be very late. so, i'm not -- i think it's encouraging to see the sort of pushback. >> when you say the concerns from mr. seigal are, in your words, valid, you're suggesting you agree that the fed needs to come out and make an emergency cut between now and the september meeting? >> i don't think the fed needs to make the cut. but i do think the fed should, in their playbook, be willing to be forward looking to respond to financial instability. and i think that that's not language that's been evident in the fmoc meetings or the press

conferences and in the minutes. so, i think it's -- i think it's in the right direction. >> there's the kind of dislocation, perhaps, you're alluding to, that's part of their job. i mean, wouldn't they be there in an emergency situation anyway? and i don't know that monday rose to the level of an emergency situation. it was the first bit of major upset that the market had felt in an awfully long time and people were at the top of the mountain asking for help. >> scott, it's a fair question, but we know the bank of japan felt compelled to speak. i think markets would feel a lot better if there was a sense that global central banks were monitoring the situation. i think there are different levels of forward looking

communication, not that we're going to skkt but prepared to act. i think that's what the outcries were pushing towards. >> speaking of the worst being over, mega cap declines off the recent highs, as i look at the list here. nvidia is down 26%. amazon's down 16.5%, as is alphabet. microsoft about 13.5%. and apple and meta are also down. would you suggest the worst is over in that reset as well or not? >> i think it depends on an investor's time frame. the a.i. and the capital expenditures it needed to really make up for this global labor shortage and the fact these mega caps like nvidia are trading at 25 times forward, 20, 25 times earnings. these are not expensive stocks where you have to worry about your risk/reward over the next 12 months, but will there be a rotation if the fed begins a cutting cycle that involves four cuts this year or five, depending on what the futures markets are predicting?

to me that's very bullish for cyclical stocks and small caps and things that are money supply sensitive. so, i think there are still a rotation risk. but i wouldn't be a seller of any of these mega caps here. >> you just said small caps, which is a good segue for me because i wanted to go there anyway. your call with me months ago that the small caps could be up 50% this year. the russell's up 2.4 -- 2.5%, excuse me, year to date. do you want a mulligan on that? do you still feel you have tremendous upside but maybe not as much as you once thought? how would you characterize it yourself? >> well, you know, we're still very constructive on small caps. i think the upside is at least 50%, scott, because they're trading at ten times. the median russell stock trading at 7.5 times for 60 basis points

faster earnings growth. but the timing hasn't worked out. i think small caps really shine when the market believes the fed is going to cut because it provides so much relief to companies that have high cost of money. whether it's biotech, financials, industrials, i think it's a real saving -- it's a life line for reducing the cost of money for consumers, which helps the banks. you have huge exposure in the russell. when the market believes the cuts are imminent, or maybe it's september, i think that's when the small cap call works. we've been wrong on the timing. i would like to have seen us to be up 20% at this point, but i still think 50% could happen before year end. >> wow. before year end. you stick to your guns. let's expand the conversation and bring in bryn and young yu ma. bryn, you want to weigh in? tom is really optimistic. we could start with the small

caps because that's the wow moment, i think, that we could do 50% between now and the end of the year. >> i've been talking about this all year. really explicitly, i don't like the russell 2000. if he's right and we were to get a rally of that magnitude in small cap, what that's going to tell you is, yes, we did have a soft landing. yes, economic growth is happening. and so i think a lot of things would do really well. i think in order for small caps to have this type of rally, you need to have a soft landing. and we need to continue to have economic growth. so that would be wonderful, by the way, if that happens. i definite think if that happens, he's correct. where i get challenged is i do believe in the economic cycle. i do think we're slowing. the jury is out if we're stalling or not. i 1,000% agree with tom. he said last week about hurricane beryl he thought did have an impact on the

unemployment numbers. i can tell you, i live in houston, there were over a million people out -- businesses, companies, businesses out of internet and electricity for two weeks. i feel it had an effect. that's where we started to see the market get dicey, last week when that unemployment. obviously, we had the black swan of the yen carry trade magnify everything. i think we are slowing. not in the camp we're necessarily stalling. that's why i would rather own rsp, the equal weight or maybe go to midcap. i just think you have to thread the needle economically for small cap to have a meaningful outperformance this year. >> it's a good point. tom, as you say, small caps have a high cost of capital. we obviously would agree. a drop in interest rates would certainly help. but they do, as bryn said, have a high risk of upset, if you will, in a slowing economy. there is, i don't think, any

doubt that the economy is slowing. it's just the degree to which it is. >> i think bryn is correct. if there is a recession, equities are going to do poorly. so, that -- if that is someone's base case, it is going to be tough to see stocks outperform in the second half. i think we're in a more resilient economy than consensus has priced in. i think that's why the growth scare pushed a lot of people into the recession camp. as you know on friday there were many people declared we're already in recession because of the solm rule and cloud yeah walked back that this rule is meant to be broken. i think moderation is much higher for recession risk. you reduce those odds and i think a good claims report and a decent inflation report, that takes those proeblts down. i think that's a boost for small caps. at ten times forward earnings, i think the risk/reward is still

very good, even on a one-year time frame. >> it was rather remarkable from wednesday's fed news conference where the chair was pretty positive on the state of where the economy is, and even the labor market, and then by that friday we had decided we were in a recession. >> i think there are a few takeaways for this week. even though we are seeing economic softening, it's important to remember the first word in soft landing is soft. we don't think there's actual downside momentum building in the economy and we saw that punctuated by the weekly initial jobless claims numbers. we think we'll see that in coming data as well, we might see a bit of softness but not down momentum. even if you look at credit spreads, for example, they widened a lot but they have come

down as well. we think that's a sign of underlying health in the economy and underlying stability. once we get the fed rate cuts, maybe 100 basis points cuts over the next couple of meetings, the economy can get back on track towards acceleration rather than softening or mixed data we've seen. >> is that why you like industrials which, by the way, are the second best performing group of stocks on the week. it sounds like that would match up with your broader view of the economy, too. >> that's right. we think industrials over the past several weeks have pulled back more than warranted. we think there are buying opportunities that have started to develop. we think as that cycle turns, once the fed does start cutting rates or the rate cutting campaign is further under way, that some of the spending that's

been constrained by these higher rates will start to come forward in the economy. it might take a handful of months but we think that will be forthcoming and probably surprise people to the upside the amount of impact that the fed rate cuts will have. >> tom, do you think we can get any real traction in this mega cap trade before august 28th? you know what i'm referring to. that's when nvidia reports its earnings. >> yeah, that's a really important date, scott, because that is one of the most important stocks in the world. we did do a study that since 1928, if you look at that tough august to october period, the most common week for markets to bottom is the first week of august. so, in other words, the odds are high that the flush we had in august was the low for the summer. and that's even true in election years. i think there's a chance we take the escalator up into august 23rd, and then it's a binary

outcome. either we strengthen from there or we start worrying again. >> yeah. bryn, you obviously own nvidia. we talked so many times about it. do you look at august 28th as a line in the sand for this trade? >> i mean, nvidia's going to have great numbers. there's no reason they wouldn't. i don't necessarily think it's going to help the other companies, per se, like the mega caps because we already know they're spending all of their money, giving it to nvidia. i think it could help semiconductors, certain semiconductors writ large. i still think the a.i. story from the picks and shovels is an nvidia story. i think amd had great numbers yet they don't get close to the revenues and the product that nvidia has. i still think it's an nvidia story. i like nvidia at this price going into the print because it is healthy to have this pullback. i think we're all going to be, once again, jensen is going to deliver the goods and they'll

have great numbers with probably strong forward guidance. >> that's the key, what they say about demand. if you're scrutinizing the spending of mega caps more substantially now than you were prior, if it's justified in certain respects by jensen huang that the demand is still there, suddenly we don't necessarily worry so much about the spending because it's going to eventually be justified. you look at tech and a.i. and say you still like this trade? >> we definitely like this trade. we think some of the attention on nvidia is misplaced in the sense that what really matters ultimately is that this spending is sustainable is whether the typical companies, especially large cap companies, start to see gains from -- eventual gains in productivity and efficiency from an a.i. rollout. we think that is the big wave that's a 2025 story that keeps this going. so, we are very positive. we do think there's a lot of room to run here. narrowly focused on nvidia is probably missing what is the

ultimate driver of this trend, and that is productivity gains by a large swath of companies we think will start to show fruition in 2025. >> tom, you heard him suggest 100 basis points, i think i heard him say, of planned cuts by the fed. what are your own expectations? what do we get for that first one in september? some have been throwing out 50 basis points, which i think the fed chair himself all but poured cold water on at the meeting as well. but things can change. maybe in some respects they have changed. i'm not sure. what do you think? >> scott, i think it's going to depend on whether the fed shift away from data dependence. bill dudley made a cogent point this week, which is if the fed was looking at inflation and real rates, the fed needs to get towards neutral. that would warrant more than 100 basis points of cuts in the near term. so, i would be in the camp that if the market is pricing in

4 1/2 cuts before year end, i think the number will be higher. i agree it's doubtful it's september because it sounds like too much of a change but to signal a significant path to future cuts would be very good for equities because it's not an emergency cut. it's a shift towards forward looking. >> good to see everybody. good weekend to all of you. we'll talk to you soon. thank you. pippa stevens has the biggest names moving into the close today on this friday. >> acme shares are jumping double digits after reporting better than second quarter results and raised outlook. they saw strong security demand this quarter and ceo telling cnbc this morning that a.i. also contributed to growth in cloud demand. but shares of e.l.f. beauty going the other way, sinking after the company's guidance disaincident positived wall street. q1 results beat on top and bottom line and sales jumped 50%. but it wasn't enough to counteract that tepid guide.

for more on the quarter, be sure to catch ceo tarang amin coming up at 4:00 p.m. on overtime. we are just getting started on this friday edition of the "closing bell." coming up, buy stocks not the market. that's the message from chris harvey from wells fargo. he'll explain what he means next and break down where he actually sees the stocks heading from here. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. we're trying to go green here. see if we can finish the week in siveertopoti triry. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm

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to buy stocks not the stock market. welcome back. >> thanks, scott. >> you sat down, i said, what a week. you said, i've never seen anything like this in my life. >> i vaebt. a developed market up 12%, down 6% the next week and the saying, oops, we won't do that again. we are cautious because this is unusual but what is also unusual are the similarities to 1998. not quite the same as a carry trade but for lack of a better phrase that's when leverage went bad. you have the fed potentially cutting in september. a lot of similarities, a lot of volatility. we'll see. >> what do i do with that? >> what do you do with that? what we're doing with that, we're still a little bit cautious. that's why we're saying, i can't pound the table, buy the stock market, it pulled back, everything looks great. we're saying, buy some stocks, some stocks have gotten beaten up.

be cautious but don't be too fearful. because value has been created. but at the end of the day, we could have some reverberations a as we go forward. >> you are cautious because there could be -- >> when was the last time you saw more than a 10% move in a develop market and everything's just fine a couple weeks later? nothing to see here. everything's fine. let's move on. now, what i will say is, what would scare us is if the credit markets began to seize up, but the credit markets are actually in the u.s. functioning pretty well. and as long as that's true, we're going to start adding money -- putting money to work. >> what do you make of what felt like a panic attack over the state of our own economy, never mind what's taken place with positioning in japan? >> i'm a little surprised by that. we think the economy is slowing down. i'm not sure why you have a panic attack because the wheels aren't falling off the cart. but because it came together

with some of these other things, people got a little excited. too much so, but again, we'll see. >> are you zeroed in when you say buy stocks, not the stock market, on some of the mega caps, which have come down a lot? i read through the list at the top of the program of the pullback in most of these names. >> i think mega caps are fine. one of our favorite spaces are -- we are saying the rotation in the summertime, that was a really oversold bounce. the fundamentals don't support that. some of the fundamentals on the mega cap side, the communication space, that makes sense. you can make money there. >> you're alluding to the meta, google, alphabets? >> that's right. >> because of the dislocation? >> because of dislocation, because they have something, quant background, one thing we've seen is momentum bent but didn't break in july. typically when that occurs, it begins to reexert itself. a lot of these companies have

that momentum and we think they'll continue. what was good before is going to be good going forward. if you look at '98, a lot of mega caps continued to move forward. >> when you we talk about momentum, yesterday the momentum etf went positive on the week. if i would have told you that was going to happen on monday morning, you would have said there's zero chance that would happen. >> probably zero chance. >> we've had a nice rebound in a lot of those names within that space. >> that's right. that's the point. if you have positive momentum, something good is happening. we had a little bit of reversal. it got stretched. you sold it off in july. now we'll are realizing, the fundamentals are good but the fundamentals in small caps, not particularly great. >> we're showing it on the screen. it's plus 3% on the week. by the way, the comeback in the market itself is pretty remarkable, i think. right now the s&p for the week is flat.

it's been steadily adding, trying to get a little something going here with 30 minutes to go in the trading week. is that as shocking to you as what happened on monday morning? >> it is. we were talking to people yesterday. if you went away for the week, what happened? nothing happened. it's all fine. it is shocking because, again, i've never seen anything that happened in japan before. and the fact that it's not reflected in the market is incredible. when you start to peel away the onion, one thing we get back to, is liquidity getting to where it needs to go? are the credit markets functioning? the answer is yes. that's the most important thing as we go forward in time. >> i've heard some suggestions not only today but along the route of the recent fed chatter, sell the first cut. don't fight the fed across the board, just sell it. what do you make of that? >> one, if you think the economy is really slowing down, the answer is, yes.

if you don't think the economy is really slowing down, the sans no. you go back to 1995, two of those six cuts you should have sold. four of those six cuts, you made over 20%. i don't think it's -- if you really think the economy is slowing down, which we don't, yeah, sell the first cut. >> you still think the fed is going to cut for the right reason. that's the bottom line. >> i think -- we had a number of fed -- we had some fed communication this week. what are they talking about? they're talking about jobs, they're talking about inflation. i thought that was great. one of the things they weren't talking about was financial stability which worried me a little bit. at the end of the day, are they going to cut for the right reasons? yes. i don't think there's an emergency cut -- >> they apparently didn't feel the need to be as -- not as, hysterical. there was talk on monday morning, they need to come out and do something now. >> i don't think that was necessary. i wish they would have

communicated a little better. we're talking to our counterparts in asia and europe and we're constantly in contact. hey, we're looking at liquidity. liquidity is getting to where it needs to go. we're looking at the credit markets, it's functioning. you didn't hear that. yes, did they panic? no, they didn't panic and that was the right thing to do. >> good to hear from you. have a good weekend. chris harvey joining us at post 9. counting to down to cpi, investors are looking ahead to a key piece of inflation data. there's a couple of good reads next week which is why it's so important. we'll discuss what to watch for, what it could mean for your money. next on "the bell." pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free.

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this may surprise people. i'm calling for 75 basis point emergency cut in the fed funds rate with another 75 basis point cut indicated for next month at the september meeting. and that's minimum. >> i think they should say something. not like jerry seigal suggested you need 75 basis point enter meeting cut. there's a crisis of sorts going on within markets that the fed should probably step out and asuede some fears and cut in september because i think they're behind the curve. >> that was jerry seigal and ifi's ray insana. stocks have had a volatile week.

the major averages, by the way, are on the cusp of turning positive for the week. pretty remarkable. here to look ahead to next week and what to watch for from the critical cpi print is cnbc senior economics reporter steve liesman. let's look back for a minute, steve, because it was a remarkable week in which you did have that commentary that we've heard. and we're about to go positive on the week for stocks. >> would you check your calendar? that was just monday? it wasn't a month ago? it feels like we've lived about three weeks in a week. it's quite remarkable. i'm looking at you, you don't look tired. i'm tired. i think investors are ready to pour a nice cold glass of gatorade and get ready to go for the weekend here. when jeremy and ron were speaking, things looked really bad. it looked like it was going to

be a calamitous beginning of the week. i believe i held my fire and thought the fed would not react quite so abruptly. i do want to explain why i think why jeremy is right over time but perhaps wrong in execution. that is because if the fed gets down -- i don't know if you have that january 2025 fed funds contract available. if the fed does get down to 4% where it was at the beginning of the week, now back 4.30 or so. it was actually below 4. the fed would still be 100 basis points above a neutral rate. jeremy is right, the fed would have a lot of work to do if it wanted to get back down to neutral. i think the concern at the federal reserve is acting precipitously like that and they don't necessarily see the weakness that was universally agreed at least a week ago today, or maybe that was three weeks ago today, on friday eltive to the jobs report is

there. we're now 50-50 on a 50 for september. that feels about right to me. why 50-50? because we got the cpi report coming up on wednesday. ppi on tuesday. and don't forget, by the way, the fed will also watch thenew york fed report on consumer expectations on monday, that will give us inflation. jeremy's right. the fed has a long way to go if it wants to get to neutral. maybe a question as to whether it ought to get there quite as fast. >> implicit in all of this is that the fed is simply too restrictive and too late. while jeremy may have been firing this off in the heat of battle, so to speak, and, you know, ron as well, these are well thought of market watchers, and they've seen a lot of markets, both of their points -- by the way, rick reeder came on and said the fed is too restrictive where they are. you know, all three of these

gentlemen could be correct in what they suggest but maybe not the mechanism of the when and how. >> right. my analysis for what it's worth, scott, and i think you shared this, there were a bunch of things going on. there was the unwind of the carry trade. there was a sense on the part of investors they had overvalued some high-flying a.i. stocks. beyond that there was this issue of weakness in the economy and whether the fed was too tight for that economy. the fed ought to be addressing the first two. just fyi, scott, on wednesday we're looking for some affirming. that's a reason for the fed deposits, by the way, why barkann yesterday talked very circumspectly about the idea of a rate cut because you're going to get 0.2s. the fed doesn't want to be stuck

there. i think it's going to maybe take a little more time. it could go 50 in september if there's a marked or clear weakening in the economy. otherwise i think it will be in a 25 basis point steps down to getting back towards a more neutral rate. >> one more thing. in fairness to mr. seigal and insana, richard fisher, the former dallas fed president, came on that day, too. he stopped short of saying mr. powell needs to come out and say something, he said he should have some remarks to keep in his back pocket just in case. i wanted to put that out there. n next week, cpi and ppi are critical, even though the fed chair hasn't used the victory words over inflation, you get the feeling they feel like they have beaten it pretty well. >> they feel like it's confident it's come down enough to provide some relief to the level of restrictiveness to the economy. and like i said, tremendous

respect for fisher, reeder, seigal and insana, these are very bright people i look up to and learn a lot from, i just think if you look at the totality of all the things going on, not all of it seemed to be fed related. if i know the fed, i think the fed would wait for the dust to clear to see how much of this stuff remained and, of course, whether or not, scott, and you have i texted about this, there were any kind of big blowups out there that was going to create financial system risk or systematic risk. that has not been the case. i do say so far. i don't want everybody to worry too much when they're drinking their gatorade over the weekend, but at the end of the day we have not seen that yet. i think there may be a ways to go to unwind the carry trade. as for next week, don't forget, one of the most important numbers is the retail sales

number on thursday, scott, which is going to tell us where the consumer is. that will give us a good read on whether or not the economy is, indeed, weakening or maintaining momentum. >> all of it easy for us to say now, to your point about the dust settling. there were real concerns it wasn't dust, it was a sandstorm about to blow everybody over. so, we'll see. we'll see what happens. good weekend to you, steve. i appreciate your insights today and always. steve liesman. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers into the close. pippa stevens is back. >> hey, scott. one stock is in the green as consumers load up on their greens. that stock to watch coming up next.

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>> he added protein options have boosted sales. doximity forced first quarter earnings that surpassed expectations. the company also lifting its full year sales guidance. those shares are up 39%. scott? >> thank you. still ahead, cisco pleecongly laying off thoughs of emoys mi ahead of the company's earnings next week as well. all the details and what to watch for in that report. we're back on "the bell" just after this break.

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coming up next, looks like cisco and stellantis is set to lay off thousands and what it might mean for the stocks ahead. do not miss a cnbc special "taking stock" hosted by mike santoli. it's tonight at 6:00 eastern time. much more from mike as well when we take you inside the mark zone next. iyear, save 50% on the sleep number® limited edition smart bed. shop now at a sleep number store near you. energy fuels, a leading american uranium producer,

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these crucial moments of the trading day, plus steve kovach and phil lebeau on two companies considering big job cuts. mike, i'll go to you first. i mentioned a moment ago, we could actually go positive on the week on the s&p. we did for a brief moment, but we're going to fight it out right to the finish here. that in and of itself is remarkable this week. >> after a 3% drop in the s&p on monday. no doubt about it. i think it's all been pretty constructive, but not quite decisive. i always say that when we get into these zones simply because you don't know exactly how much of an overshoot to the downside in the short term you had relative to the fundamentals. what you were doing, if you were buying near the lows of this week in the s&p 500 is, you were picking up the market, so to speak, at levels of about five months ago. this is -- these are levels we first got to back in march. we've had two subsequent quarters of pretty good earnings growth. now we're looking ahead to a higher earnings level. on that basis, it feels as if their macro shocks are not going to be driving things in the next

week or so or even beyond that, it feels like the risk/reward has gotten somewhat better. it leaves you with this sense that the market has something to prove. we don't know if it deserved to be where it was at the highs based on earnings growth, soft landing prospects, the fed nailing things, and all the rest of it. so, i feel like it's as good as you could hope for going into the weekend the way the volatility has drained away from this market has absolutely been positive. i just don't know how much you want to extrapolate it from here. >> i'll come ba to you in a minute. steve kovach, i guess we thought we would be looking ahead to earnings. now we have these reports of layoffs at cisco. >> it's going to be a big day for cisco next week. cisco is planning, scott, its second round of mass layoffs. that's going to affect thousands of employees, according to a new report today from reuters. cisco back in february cut 5% of its workforce, or about 4,000 employees. reuters saying the new cuts will be of a similar size. cisco is cutting costs as it transitions to a.i. focused

sales and absorbing cyber security firm splunk, which it bought for $28 billion in a deal that closed back in march. no official word from cisco on the layoffs but the company is set to report earnings wednesday next week. shares right now down shy of 1%, scott. >> i'm sure we will. steve kovach, thanks. you have a good weekend. phil lebeau, what do we know about stellantis, phil? >> job cuts, that will be going to one plant in the detroit area. not a huge surprise here, scott. what stellantis warned is the warren, michigan, truck plant, potential impact on 2450 jobs. not all through layoffs, some through attrition, early retirements. they're cutting from two shifts down to one shift. that's basically the case -- we're going to see this with other automakers as well as they adjust their production. what they're doing is they're ending production of the ram

1500 classic edition pickup truck. the ram's not going away. they're just getting rid of this one addition that was made at the warren, michigan, plant. as you take a look at shares of stellantis, gm and ford, we're seeing inventories continue to climb. up 49% for the industry in july compared to july of last year. >> all right. and a good weekend to you as well, phil. thanks for being with us on krb cnn. back to mike santoli. do you want to tease us with what's coming up on your show "taking stock". >> we'll sift through a pretty eventful week. i feel as though the market has given us plenty to sort through, including whether in fact all of this forced liquidation, the repositioning, the yen carry trade, all the things we talked about, does it matter in the here and now? is it something that will animate this market looking ahead? also what's the rethink of a.i. profitability mean for the market and is that process going to be one that, you know, is it just sort of a stutter step in that huge secular growth story

or something we'll have to live with for a little while? the nvidia action has been pretty fascinating. i think the street rallying to nvidia's defense. right now the target price on that stock is 30% up from where it's trading right now. there's a defense going on even as it struggles with these levels that it reached a few months ago. >> yeah. retail sales next week, cpi, ppi, so we'll have it right in front of us here on what the true state of not only the economy and the health of the consumer is, but inflation. >> yeah, i definitely think retail sales, which is sometimes a quirky number but coming along with hoe depot and walmart earnings is probably front and center. cpi, i keep saying i feel like they should be brave enough to say we've taken care mostly of the inflation issues. we'll see if the cpi number complicates that process or really moves in the right direction to where the market is. really the market is telling the fed, as you've been talking about, that we should leave that

aside. if we have to worry about one risk, it's probably the pace of growth not whether we can get the last mile of inflation squeezed out. >> we'll look forward to tonight, 6:00, "taking stock" with mike santoli. the bell is going to ring and the s&p is going to settle out. right now it's flat. have a great weekend, everybody. i'll see you on the other side of that. into "overtime" with morgan. >> that's the end of regulation. summit global investment doing the honors at the nasdaq. stocks range bound and a wild week. the nasdaq 100 remarkably finishing in the green since monday's open. and the major averages only logging minor losses. it looks like the s&p is basically flat here, which is big news in and of itself. when's the last time you heard that? that's the scorecard on wall st