day. the dow is up 357 points as you can see there, it's been a slow and steady move higher. we'll see if that momentum can keep up into the closing bell today. so thank you very much for watching today on "power lunch." and thank you for coming into studio for helping us today. "close ing bell" starts right nw welcome to cl"closing bell. we're live at the new york stock exchange this make or break hour begins with the post powell rally stocks shooting after the time has come signaling they are going to start cutting rates next month former fed vice chair squloins joins us to break down what he sees in terms of timing and the pace of cuts ahead here's a look at our score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation we're green across the board all three trading higher by more than 1% at the highs of the day.

we're seeing tech stocks are rallying on a lower rate cut environment. tesla and n visit ya jumping and small caps gaining on this outlook. the russell 2000 advancing about 3% on the day. it takes us to our talk of the tape in hopes of coming rate cut cans sustain this rally joining me is our panel. mona, set the scene. there was so much expectation going into fed chair jerome powell's speech in jackson hole today. the expectation of rate cuts, but he came out and stated it fairly clearly >> yeah, the chair delivered on his message today. i think they usually tend to use this symposium as a platform where they can deliver or signal a change in policy fed chair powell did just that not only did he say the time is

now for a change in policy, he also alluded to both sides of his dual mandate that have come into focus so the inflation side continues to deliver well as well. we have seen cpi inflation with a 2.9% powell said his confidence in inflation moving lower has increased. but they are more focused on the labor market as well that has softened. he noted that he does not want to contribute to further softening in the labor market. so in our view, he has signalled a september rate cut we still think it's a 25 basis point. we don't see the urgency for something larger we think 2 to 3 rate cuts are likely for the remainder of the year >> keith, what's your take >> it's great to be with you mona summed it up well the market is to see the rate cuts >> the market was pricing in 100% probability they still want to hear from powell

now the market is pricing 40% chance of a 50-basis point cut the more important message is that the fed is now shifted their focus to the employment side they should. the unemployment rate today is above what they thought it would be at the end of next year and as a result of that, you have an economy that is cooling. but this should provide support as we move into later this year. you're seeing the areas of the market leave today >> when you're looking at the dow jones up nearly a percent, the s&p 500 almost a percent and then the russell 2000. mona, what does it tell you about what's to come based on the expected rate cut in september? >> we continue to feel like this broadening of market participation and leadership has some likes here. we thought there would be cocatalysts.

one would be closer to fed cuts, which we are notably closer now. the second one would be a broadening of earnings participation as well. if you look towards what's happening in q4 3 and 4, the contribution is coming much more meaningfully so outside of tech than within tech so tech is contribute ing, but certainly not more than 50% of earnings growth. so we think both of those catalysts combined lead to this broadening of earnings but from a cap structure, we still like large cap as way to play that theme. long-term, we're more cautious they are more levered. they tend to have less positive earnings, more of those zombie companies. but all that being said, if you get more volatility in the weeks ahead, we wouldn't expect this pace of being able to continue at this pace for the remainder of the year. if you get that volatility, fst your opportunity to use that to your advantage to get some diversification.

>> i see you have a bias for large caps over small caps as well after we saw a this pullback at the beginning of august, i know that you went back and you had put the tech sector back to overweight after downgrading it. how much more room to you think tech has to run here >> it's a good question. since we upgraded in early august, the tech sector is up over 10% so what you're seeing is a ping-pong ing back and forth short-term it tuz seem like we'll have more momentum towards small caps that's the short-term phenomenon long-term, we're still like large caps as we get into the fourth quarter and you have focus on the iphone upgrade around artificial intelligence and an upgrade in the pc cycle, money will rotate back to tech but right now, i don't think it's either/or we're seeing tech perform well, but we're seeing participation from real estate, financials,

industrials, materials so i think it's healthy. but we'll have that back and forth. >> what about gold i'm seeing fwold up 1.2% now it looks like powell's comments had some impact there. how are you positioning gold with the recent highs we have seen for that metal? >> yeah, earlier this year we added a position of gold portfolios it has multilayers one of the reason it's up is interest rates are moving down so that's a positive the u.s. dollar is weakening that's a positive as well. at the same time as we move into the election cycle, no one is talking about bringing in the fiscal spending. that's also a positive we're seeing countries around the globe add to their gold reserves and technically it looks fantastic. so we think it has a place in our portfolio. and the trends are supportive. >> in recent days, the yields have been so high that a lot of

people have been very heavy in their portfolios in cash if they want to do something with that access cash now, what's your recommendation >> yeah, it's a great callout. that reuninvestment risk has increased. if you do hold overweight or too overweight in cds and money markets, a year from now, those interest rates will probably be lower. you want to start thinking about that now in terms of really moving some of that cash position into strategic allocations and equities and bonds. if you think about bond yields, we may see somewhat of a move lower, but versus history, the fed will not go back to zero they will end around 3%. you're still geting a decent rate if you add premium to the corporate bonds, we think balance portfolios still remain favorable here we think you can get good quality dividend players and balance that with some fixed

income bond-like returns so balanced portfolio is here to stay >> appreciate your expert insight. thank you. >> thanks, guys. the fed front and center as the chair gives his keynote speech let's send it over to senior economics response steve man who is in wyoming for us today and really some remarkable statements from the fed chair. >> this was a big deal and maybe the right place with these big mountains to tell that story. after two and a half years of fighting inflation consistently, the fed chair takes to the podium here at the jackson hole annual conference and lays out a new marker on monetary policy. he's declared now is the time to adjust interest rates downward >> the time has come for policy to adjust. the direction of travel is clear and the timing and pace of rate

cuts will depend on incoming da tarks the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks >> there's a statement you don't need a fed reporter to interpret. it could stick that soft landing, say ing the fed could get back to the 2% inflation target and do so with a strong jobs market. powell's comments oncoming rate cuts and the outlook for a soft landing made markets a greater chance of a 50 as one of your previous guest was saying for september or november. not both there but still look ing for a total. you can see that chance of a 50 up in september. by about 10 points the dollar sold off and bonds and stocks rattle lid. powell specified the pace or extent of race cuts, though he did say multiple cuts are on the way. how do you know? one of your guests was talking about this further job weakness is going to be 25 or 50.

does inflation continue on the downward trend they are going to be more reluctant to cut and what the economy does. they said they had concerns about the job market and consumers, but was generally upbeat >> i i do have concerns. there are concern warning lights from parts of the job market and the consumer delinquencies on the other hand, we also have wide pockets of strength in the economy. so i'm hopeful that a year from now, we're still chugging along. >> so the market reaction suggests powell was more dovish, direct and definitive than markets expected, but there's still data to come before the september meeting and dif differences about how far to go and how quickly to get there >> steve, thank you for the great reporting out this let's bring in former federal reserve vice chairman, global

economic adviser at pin co first of all, the remarks, even with everyone factoring in a rate cut in september, it just was so clear, it was so easy to grasp. and you didn't need the economics report to do the t translation. does it in any way, shape, or form box the fed into its next action given that we still have data points toment colt? a big jobs report. >> thanks for having me on a couple things. first, the fed minutes, which were released two days ago, also were pretty clear that they are inclined to begin moving in september. so today was reenforcing that message. your question is are they boxed in i do think they think they are going to cut in september an for a pretty wide range of data they will cut in september i think the thing that stood out to me in the speech today was that sentence in which the chair

said we will do everything we can to prevent a rise in unemployment that's quite a strong declarative statement. it's not a declaration of mission accomplished on inflation, but they think they are close and there are tensions now turning to the labor market. >> we saw new home sales come in higher than expected by a pretty significant amount, 100,000 or more how different does the data need to be in order for the fed to change its calculation and its expected trajectory on action. >> there are a couple things here first, the committee will have a policy rate decision as they always do. secondly, in september, they will be updated their p projections and the dot plot so we're looking for not only a rate cut in september, but a change to the dot plot from the june plot that showed only one

cut this year. if they have enough confidence to sut in september, they are probably planning multiple cuts and will make that clear i think at least 25 basis points would be our baseline for a pretty wide range of data. i think the data they are focused on now is the labor market data. i think the rest of the economy will be focusing on it as well, butt labor market will be key here the speech reenforce d that >> we heard austin gools by say he has real concerns about parts of the job market. even though there are strengths in other areas what parts of labor in particular, and more broadly, the economy, do you think still present pitfalls >> remember aer year ago, the goals of fed policy to reduce inflation was to take some of the heat out of the labor market

so we have had a rise in the unemployment rate. we have had a slowdown in the rate of growth in employment and so far, that was really part of the package to disinflate the economy. what was very clear today is that any additional softening in the labor market is not something they welcome and must do everything we can we did have a big revision 800,000 jobs that we thought were there and revised away. so i think right now, their judgment is that the labor market is in good balance. they are very attuned and tentative to any further slowdown in the labor market >> the chair did not go into details about the pace or the intensity of the cuts here, but maybe you will you said that you expect 25 basis points do you think that we get to 100 by the end of the year what would happen to spark it to be more than that?

should they come faster? >> what i like to do is distinguish between the most likely or what some folks call the scenario that still looks like 25 basis points per meeting for the last three meetings for a total of 75 however, if that scenario is wrong, it will be wrong in the sense they will cut more they will start cutting in september. i think as i said, the labor market data will be key. moreover, suppose the labor market data we get in september is okay, be but it starts to slowdown in october. i could see them increasing the pace to 50 and so i do think that we're going to get at least 75 depending on the rest of the data, it could be more cuts than that >> what are you expecting to see in the pce report next friday? >> it should be a good, positive report we have gotten the cpi report and the ppi. both of those would indicate

we'll get a number somewhere between .15 and .18 monthly. so if you annualize that, 2%, which is right in the sweet spot >> rich, we have heard some talk among the republicans and trump and his vice presidential running mate that the fed chair ought to be subject to some input from the president that maybe this should be an appointed job by the president what's your take on that >> this is clear in statute. the fed officials get their opinions and judgments up all the time powell's term runs through may of 2026. what you have just suggested here would require a change in the law. the fed is a creation of congress the federal reserve act as a

amended. so i don't see any change on the horizon. >> should it change? >> oh, i don't think so. if a country has been served well by the existing statute, the fed has the goals of the fed are set by congress. so price stability and maximum employ employment >> rich, good of you to join us on this friday thank you. >> thank you let's get right to pippa stevens for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> intuit is the worst performer today down 7%. the company beat estimates for q4, but weak revenue guidance is hitting the stock. the company also adjusted its long-term growth ranges, including for its consumer unit. noting this puts more pressure on the small business franchise to power growth over the long-term. and shares of war by parker on

track for their best day since may after securities upgraded the stock to market out perform. estimates for the glasses maker are too low as it's consistently gained market share. the firm added the stock is underperformed the broader market and the new $20 target is 28% above where the stock currently trades >> thank you we're just getting started here. up next, new data shows a big bounceback in the housing market we'll break down how that could affect the sector in the months ahead. we have a quick break. we'll be right back.

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for exactly the amount she wants... no fees or commissions... what will gina do next? gina has roller derby at 6:00 pm. i'm there. get started investing for as little as $1. talk about easier investing. welcome back july new home sales posting their biggest monthly gain in

two years today. with fed chair jerome powell signaling rate cuts are coming, are tail winds building? let's ask tyler vitori who covers the space good to see you today. you got home sales coming in much higher than expected. what does that mean for home builders >> to be honest, the july numbers we got this morning almost seem too good to be true. our perspective on this, we think sales rates will not get better in august or september. it's certainly contrary to the view that's in the market right now that rates will tick down and reinvigorate more housing demand what we're seeing from our checks, buyers are pausing their purchasing decisions right now i think there's some seasonality at play, uncertainty around the election, but there's a lot of consumers that expect mortgage rates to move lower from here in the next couple months that's resulting in buyers hesitant to transact and ultimately, it should mean sales rates flat line, maybe decline, probably more

incentives from the home wilder. at the end of the day if you're a consumer in the market looking for a new home,s that good dynamic. if you're a home builder, we don't think this is a great dynamic over the next couple months given incentive activity. >> i guess the conventional wisdom or common sense thinking would be, one, with mortgage rates sitting so high, so many people have been putting off either the refinancing or jumping into a new home. two, because of this availability issue in housing, people have been putting it off. once rates start to come down, wouldn't that be the catalyst to jump it? it just seems so contrary to what you might jump to the assumption there >> there are a couple points i will make. the new home side of things, there's just a short-term blip, a short-term dynamic, where yes, rates are so high. there's this expectation that we're going to see 6 or 5.5% so why buy now if rates are going to go lower?

this golden handcuff dynamic, there's lots of people that have a low mortgage rate. why would you trade that low rate for a high rate when they are 7%, that disincentive to sell your home is still very much alive and well the bigger problem on the existing inventory, a lot of the inventory isn't that nice. the average age of homes is over 30 years if you look at millennial buyers, they are coming from an apartment. has lots of light and open floor plan there's a lot of instances where that customer don't want to buy a home that was built 30 years ago that still has popcorn ceilings or rugs in it they are much more interested in what the new homes often, what home builders offer in the designs and the ability to buy that mortgage rate that's a tail wind right now on the new side of things, just a little bit of a digestion period, a soft spot. i do think demand is going to reaccelerate this next year. >> especially when you're

talking about an ageing housing stock. what we heard from lowest and home depot, homeowners are putting off big renovation projects because of rate fears, maybe recession worries, what's coming down the pike what do you think turns that what's the spark that's going to take to turn this psychology >> that's a good question. our perspective on this, you look at repair, remodel. there was so much pull forward in covid everyone wanted to do projects at home. there was probably at least seven or eight years condensed into a three-year time period. there was a pull back then now there's a pause given the uncertainty out there. if rates tick down and they stay down, that's really what i think is the catalyst. in addition, just time if you're not satisfyied with your home, you may feel uncomfortable renovating it today, but as months go on, your perspective starts to change that alone can motivate you to make some changes. >> i'm looking at your coverage.

i'm curious why toll brothers is your pick out of the bunch >> toll brothers has been our top pick for a long time now they are playing a different game than a lot of other home builders their average sale price is right around the million dollars, almost 30% of buyers are paising all cash much different consumer than a lot of the other home builders you throw in a management team that has done an excellent job in buying back stock, contributing to higher gross margin a lot of factors that are good a lot of tailwinds that continue to drive this stock higher >> but you have up 62% toll brothers up 87% over the past year, how much more room do the stocks themselves have to run >> so toll brothers, we think there's upside here. in the short-term, i will say we're a little concerned i do think the stocks have moved

in front of fundamentals we talked about this soft patch. i don't think that's priced in maybe you get a little short-term blip. when we look at this entire sector overall if you're an investor that is has a time horizon, there's lots of good tail winds here. there's still not a lot of supply out there these companies, the home that they have done an excellent job in terms of adjusting how they manage the business, lowering risk as well so while there might be short-term concerns right here, long-term the we're still bullish on the sector. >> with no orange peel finish or popcorn ceilings in sight, tyler, thank you for joining us today. up next, third points out with a new letter. we break down the details after this break don't forget you can catch us on the go by following the closing bell podcast on your favorite podcast app. we sound a lot like we do on television, but there's less video. we'll be right back. so this is pickleball?

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welcome back to "closing bell." dan lou published second quarter investment letter. lesly picker it at the nasdaq with those highlights. >> this was an interesting one a new stake in apple during the second quarter saying in that letter it's research led it to a belief that ai-related demand could drive an improvement in

apple's revenue and earnings over the next few years. the stock has become, quote, increasingly underowned by institutional investors and its relative multiple had come pressed on a low apple was one of the top p portfolio winner rs for the month of july. third point predicting more volatility in the corporate credit markets there's a broader opportunity set emerging belied by the dispersion and credit spreads. the firm believes public credits will face stress as the impacts hit fixed rate issuers that have to finance at higher rates >> thank you for wrapping that up stocks climbing again today with some of the more defensive corners of the market trading at highs. you have staples and health care, two sectors hitting all-time highs joining me now to share how he's informsing through the end of the year, kevin dreyer so you've got some value o

oriented opportunity here. >> yes, i think so we are bottom-up investors we have a value style. growth is really led the way for a long time now. but you start to see this rotation in early july and that was in line with looking at the fed finally cutting rates and we have seen value and small caps start to do better >> it's hard not to get overwhelmed by the headlines of since august 5th you have meta up 17% amazon up 16%. but those mega cap names that have driven us through the year are grabbing the spotlight again. why should investors consider at this point something that is more value oriented? >> i think as rates come down, that leads to activity

we had an announcement of mars buying food stocks have had a tough year the consumer stretch has been biting them. they have been struggling with volume growth. but snacking has been a good area within food so mars is buying kellog they split up into piece two pieces so we think there could be other deals to come in that sector my favorite is brbr, which is a mid-cap stock. >> known for protein shakes. >> pretier protein in an industry that's sfrug struggling to grow at all. most of their distribution through walmart and costco, so there's a big distribution opportunity. we think they will continue to do great on their own, but somebody else else might want to buy them too >> what about campbells soup >> it's an interesting situation. in this case, they recently did a deal they bought rao's pasta sauce. very fast grow ing.

they are doing a good job on their own. now they have a meals business that's a little better situated and a stacking business. they could follow that kellog playbook we'll see. they have an investor coming up in september we're going to outline their plans going forward. >> it's a meaty narrative to look at the rise of the glp-1 drugs and the impact, especially on snack foods or packaged foods. are you discounting the impact of weight loss drugs on this sector >> we're looking frr closely at it that has been a narrative over the last year or so definitely i don't think there's been an impact yet in the numbers. i think it's been more the inflation and consumer stress. but that's where a company with premier protein is a great companion because people need protein when they are on these drugs to avoid muscle loss >> i'm looking right now at the russell 2000 on track to close today up more than 3%. talk a little bit about the

opportunities in the small caps. we see a lot of opportunities in small cap stocks across the board. right now, they traded at a massive discount to their large cap peers. we look across the spectrum, but i would say by and large, we have been buying more small caps lately we think they have a long way to go >> we have consumer confidence data coming out next week on tuesday. do you think that will set the tone for investors in some of these other areas that are so exposed to consumer discretionary? >> it could. my sense is the consumer is pretty weak right now. i know we have had mixed data over the last couple months, but it kind of feels like it's lower. so i just think that protends for rate cuts, which we all know are coming it's a question of how many and how far do we go and we'll see >> i cover gambling. if you were betting, would you make a bet on how many >> how many rate cuts or how

big? >> yes >> we'll see that's not our game that we play i would say it's going to be probably successive rate cuts through the year >> there's nothing like making a bet when the opportunity is there. thank you very much for joining us today appreciate it. >> thank you up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. hello, partnippa >> your stocks are surging after an announcement from a key pruc he all the details, coming up next. do you have a life insurance policy you no longer need? now you can sell your policy - even a term policy - for an immediate cash payment. call coventry direct to learn more. we thought we had planned carefully for our retirement. but we quickly realized we needed a way to supplement our income. our friend sold their policy to help pay their medical bills, and that got me thinking. maybe selling our policy could help with our retirement. i'm skeptical, so i did some research and called coventry direct. they explained life insurance is a valuable asset that can be sold. we learned we could sell all of our policy, or

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we have 20 minutes to go until the closing bell pippa pa is back with a closer look at why.

>> ur rain yum stocks are jumping after the largest producer flashed its 2025 production target by 17% thanks to construction delays and shortages of acid essential in the mining process the company is stake owned with kaza kazakhstan capital managements called it a significant cut noting that 2026 production guidance also wasn't given, but the company pointing to high levels of uncertainty. that send ing shares of canada-based cameco up 5%. dennison mines and nexgen among the other names climbing today >> big moves thank you. still ahead, shares of roku popping as one forecasts more than 20% upside for that name. we'll tell you what's behind the call, coming up. "close ing bell" will be right

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welcome back to "closing bell." we're getting a check on shares slipping after uvs downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. the bank cited ongoing challenges in the recovery of the casino segment there's some concern over the chinese consumer and how much they are spending. the fact that visitation and spending has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels at this

point. one other casino that as long as we're talking about it, caesars today is up by 4%. a lot of excitement ahead of the launch of the football season and also ongoing strength in las vegas. up next, cava shares s soaring. we'll drill down on what it means for the rest of the restaurant space after this quick break. and don't miss a cnbc special "taking stock. that's tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc get read e rk ze next. oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories

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just barely ten minutes to go before the closing bell and we find ourselves in the market zone markets commentator joins us to break down the crucial moments of the trading day julia boerston on why they are bullish on roku. kate rogers on the quarterly numbers sending cava higher. and what we're watch ing in the final few minutes of a roller coaster week for stocks. let's get started with mike. what we saw today was fairly calm considering what the rest of the week looked like. >> yeah, it was sdjust a bit of tension. there was at least enough suspense going into the jackson hole speech by powell in terms of what he was going to say and how he was going to say it and what he would leave open and what toors he might shut there was a little bit of pressure taken off when he was

net on the dubbish side. essentially validated the market's view that rates will be coming down. they should be coming down there's flexibility to do more if necessary but really, it gets the s&p 500 up another 1%. and basically to the highs of the week we hit these levels a couple times in the last couple days. we're just shy of the all-time high in mid-july it's broad too almost 90% of the volume in the new york stock exchange is in advancing stocks that's usually a sign there's pretty full participation. one thing i will note really strong rallies, as you have note ed in the small cap as well as the bank stocks, everyone is going back to that mid-july effort to rotate into those areas. rate sensitive and the playbook says if the fed is cutting, it's time to buy those parts of the market it didn't stick last time. we'll see if there's going to be a change of tone this time around >> i'm looking at the big gainers. you have builders first stores carnival corporations, cruise lines, all doing well.

warner brothers discovery with a big move anything a stand out to you? >> a kcombination of lag ert stocks that had a cloud hanging over them. something like warner brothers discovery, maybe a heavy short interest but the other piece is there's definitely been a bit of skepticism or concern around the pace of consumer spending and any stocks that were held back by the perception of a consumer that was losing his or her grip is probably going to get some relief today also the cruise lines, right or wrong, they are volatile they swing all over the the place. >> mike, i know you're coming up for "closing bell" overtime. thank you for spending time with us let's turn to roku shares. julia has that for us. >> roku shares spiking over 12% on upgrading the rating to buy from neutral the with a $75 price target on the stock. this note flagging key

initiatives that should drive revenue acceleration and margin expansion through 2025 saying that roku is making progress towards broadening inventory by partnering with third-party platforms to sell. this is a shift away from traditionally selling all of its ads to buyers. they know roku is improve ing i home screen with new video ads and customizable displays. and goougen hiem projects the competition will remain intense, which should drive more advertising of apps and their content. now roku is on track for its best day of the year it's still down 13% over the past 12 months >> is the a ad environment easing up in ways that make it possible for roku to take advantage? >> the ad environment for the digital players continues to be robust it's the traditional ad market, whether it's on the linear channels of the big media companies or when it comes to

print outlets, we're seeing weakness in advertising. weakness in various areas. when it comes to the streaming advertising market, that does continue to be strong. there's certain pockets of weakness, but certainly an area of strength. roku is getting these apps to market to consumers on its home screen >> great to see you. thank you. let's get to kate rogers cava tracking for its best day as a newly traded company. what did results tell us >> the stock up 20%. and continuing to gain throughout the day after the great q2 in this tough environment for the broader sector top and bottom line beats sales growth up 14.4% better than estimates of 7.9%. another rarity, it had growing traffic in this environment. the traffic was up nearly 10%. the company also raised guidance for sales, profit margin the new menu edition is

outperforming expectations and he weighed in on folding in the restaurant space say ing it's a misnomer for what's happening in the is sector adding, price is the cost of a meal while value is its worth and driven by a combination of attributes beyond the headline price including quality, convenience, and experience that stock one of the best performers in the sector up around 180%. back to you. >> earlier this week, we saw headline-grabbing calls where analysts said these restaurants, especially fast casual, are going to have challenges in menu pricing as we move forward is that not a concern for cava >> definitely not for cava or chipotle those are three not having to discount in the way that some of the fast food players are, although cava has held off on price increases in california. it doesn't have a huge presence here but it hasn't raised prices as

aggressively as competitors. people are willing to pay what they are charging for these meals. a little higher price tier than a mcdonald's or burger king or other fast food players. it reminds me of chipotle, particularly in the growth strategy, menu testing strategy, et cetera. >> kate, thank you we have a few minutes leflt to go with stocks tracking for another winning weak the s&p 500 and nasdaq heading for their tenth positive session. what are you watching? >> the main thing is have the bullish drivers of the market this year changed? and the pretty clear answer is no inflation is continuing to trend down that's going to allow the fed to cut rates in september we think they are going to move slowly, which tends to be positive and that means the economy moves towards a soft landing

and the quarter and quarter earnings growth has been faster for several quarters in a row. that's the case in q2. it looks like it's going to be the case in q3 as well if nothing meaningfully has changed, flost reason to change the thesis >> do you expect this volatility that we have seen in august for the markets to continue into september given now this expectation and the fed chair has reenforced what the market expects the fed to do on rate cuts in september? >> what we saw was extraordinary. if you lead the spike, it's something we have only seen a handful of times in the past 40 years. a lot of those times it happens in august when maybe there's liquidity in the market. the uncertainty of the fed going to cut rates does provide another underpinning to the market there's going to be other concerns

earnings estimates for q3 are a little elevated. they need to come down we have the election coming up be what we saw in august is not going to repeat itself in september. >> we're about 10 points from an all-time closing high on the dow jones industrial led higher by travelers, boeing, 3m give me expectations for these stocks >> we think it's going to be a pretty broad advance from here, but there's a chance for catch-up from some of the areas that maybe haven't done as well this year. percentage of stocks above their moving average is above 90%. that means every stock has participated with rates likely coming down, we could see a broadening. so it would be more than just the ai and mega cap growth stocks that are the drivers of the rally from here. >> what are you watching for in terms of even next week we're getting pce data on friday

we get some view on the consumer in spending next week on tuesday. what do you think moves stocks higher in the near term? >> i think what the market is looking for is soft enough data that it's going to confirm the fed is going to cut, but not so soft that maybe the fed has to panic. what really is a problem with the market if the fed has to go 50 basis points and then goes 50 again later on in the year, when the fed moves quickly, it's because they are trying to avoid a recession. at that point, they are failing to do so we don't want the data to be too weak it's the goldilocks and slower, but not too slow economic growth that's what the market would be like >> what sec sorts are you l looking for? >> we like utilities, but we can get a broadening into some forgotten sectors as well. >> you're hearing the cheering

for the closing bell the dow is just about 10 points. the nasdaq as well. >> let's send it over to overtime >> that's the end of regulation. scouting america ringing the closing bell sporting goods maker etc. ka laid doing the honors at the nasdaq stocks rallying. indicate ing wrat cuts are comig that's the score card on wall street butt action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike san jtoli every sector in the green toid the s&p up more than 1%. research cofounder warren miss on why investors should be fading recession