it's monday, august 26th. happy birthday, mom. and "squawk box" begins up there. she's way up -- i hope she hears me. "squawk box" begins right now. >> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. becky and andrew are off today. no big banks, right? >> i'm here. just to see you. >> that's amazing. >> normally, i'm like, it's not that i'm dreading big banks, but there are a lot of really arcane in the weeds information that you bring us with the big banks. >> there are a lot of metrics.

>> actually, it's the beginning. all those. we're going to save that for -- >> and they're important. >> yeah. >> almost like on another morning show like the ingredients that go into like a chicken he casserole. it's kiev, right? we don't mention that as much anymore. but that will be about the most complicated thing we touch on, i think. maybe wubonce in a while -- >> when i hear pharma and semiconductors, i feel like that is complicated. >> that stuff is interesting. u.s. equities futures at this hour as we mentioned, frank just finished looking at those. i think the dow is a little weaker, down nine points. big days on friday. dow rallied 450 points following fed chairman powell's speech. the s&p 500 also climbing. it is less than 1% from its record high. that was set in mid july.

and the nasdaq, powered ahead. adding more than 250 points on friday. and now the attention will turn to, really, the general, the leader of what we have seen in a lot of tech. the ai chipmaker set to report results on wednesday after the closing bell. stock added 4% on friday. it is now up over 160% for the year and also year high, what -- we know it's a t word. are we back? >> $3.2 trillion. >> next stop, i guess -- >> we have three stocks around $3.2 trillion. $10 trillion in the top three stocks. >> no problem. >> and all the vignettes of people that got into nvidia early and going to disney world or what not with their gains. >> they are true believers, for sure. it has gone side ways for 2 1/2

months. we'll see if it is coiled up for something as we get the earnings. we'll check in on other markets as well. the buying in bonds continues. yields making new lows. the ten-year down to 379. basically back to the lows from december when the market really celebrated the idea of a fed pivot. of course, we went back up to 430 or so. so not much of a gap between the twos and tens at this point. pretty aggressive fed rate easing, of course. gold, continues to make new highs. 2560 right now. up about another .5%. we can write your own story line as to why that's happening. but a lot of things working in its favor. >> i'll give you one indication here. tensions in the middle east did kaes escalate over the week. hezbollah exchanging heavy fire early sunday. hezbollah launching hundreds of rockets and drones.

100 israeli warplanes struck targeted in lebanon. they both did signal deescalation in an effort to avoid conflict. they're on high alert for any potential retaliation for killing seepor figures from hama hamas his and hezbollah. texas crude is climbing past $75 a barrel. curr currently $75.56. >>en t >> and this is a story occupying the lead editorial of "the wall street journal." kroger and albertson's heading to court to defend the merger. the companies propose the harthest supermarket deal in u.s. history in 2022 saying it would help them cut costs to better compete with the real leaders in that space, walmart, costco, amazon, take your pick. the federal trade commission

sued to block the merger saying it would eliminate competition and raise grocery prices. but it was pointed out at the time, to make the, you know, to make it so narrow in how you're testing, you know, whether there is antitrust concerns has a lot of people saying this is one of the poster childs for maybe overreach for the ftc. >> look, they don't like -- remember that a judge blocked staples and office depots. kind of a dying business. >> didn't they block sirius/xm for a while, too? >> exactly. it's almost as if it has to get to a point where the overall market is so big relative to the two competitors that redefined the market. sirius/xm and once streaming came around, it was no longer dominant. >> it is possible that this action has the opposite of what's intended in the effect on prices for consumers. >> you never know.

yeah. look, they also haven't done that well in court, the government sometimes with these cases. >> it doesn't stop them from trying. >> there are a lot of things on the cns and kind of what that means. part of the deal has this remedy whereby they would sell 579 stores -- >> a company that nobody ever heard of. pigly wiggly and a couple other ones. >> i like that, too. it sounds better. >> and wawa and pigly wiggly. cns. >> and they said -- >> what do you think when you hear cns? >> a software company or a consulting firm. >> central nervous system. you don't think of that immediately? >> no. >> cns that's my background. i am going back to ninth grade bio. >> or college. >> is that where you stopped? >> more or less. >> computer science. college class. >> all right. canadian rail workers are ending

their work stoppage today. the country's labor relations board sided with a government order directing canadian national and canadian pacific kansas city to resume operations. the teamsters union says they will comply. they plan to appeal the ruling in court. they expect the supply chains to fully recover from the stoppage over the next several weeks. >> more news on the struggle to sell paramount global. they reportedly has plabz for the studio including a partnership with a tech giant such as amazon or apple to improve the streaming service. bloomberg reports that they believe that paramount needs more specific skills in terms of ad sales, licensing, and growing its customer base. this is just such a whirlwind. i believe that special committee meets on the 28th, so in two days, to discuss whether this is a superior bid or not. but, i mean, it's just like -- >> and they say that even

considering this bid or extending the bid is breach of contract. i don't think anybody is raising enough money to buy it. >> no. >> it comes do you remember to we're going to pick out this piece of the control, shareholder and so public share holders are not sure. >> yeah. and this one reportedly has fortress and has foreign ownership and implication because not the majority, right? isn't it like 40% -- >> fortress? >> yeah. >> uae or something like. that anyway -- >> yeah, that's right. >> definitely one to watch. >> this just makes me nervous and -- well, the whole story makes me nervous. they don't talk about polaris is which is happening tonight. godspeed. the two astronauts are stranded on the international space station and they won't come home until early 2025. and at this point, they're getting a ride from elon musk. they decided the capsule will

return empty from the station after bringing the pair up there in june. it was intended for nine days and this marks a dramatic about-face for nasa and boeing. the organizations were previously adamant that capsule is the primary choice of returning the crew. but the crew flight, the test faced problems, most notely with the propulsion system and helium and it's -- you wanted everything to be exactly right before you try. they're now expected to return to earth in february on space ex-'s dragon castle. shares aof boeing are lower. the morale is down 33%. tonight at 3:38 a.m., we're expected to get this polaris launch, the first commercial space walk. they want to scale the space suits as well. that is one of the problems come

pata compatibility of the space suits. but these guys, one guy's nickname is kid. and the other one is like test pilots. and this are people that are really different from -- i don't know you about, but totally different from me. retired air force lieutenant that flew with the thunder birds. and an operations engineer. i don't want to worry. i don't want to really worry. they're good at this now. i understand that. but i can't help but worry. i would be anxious. >> none of it appeals to me. the idea ofgoing or -- force although maybe if you no he that much about it if you're an engineer and you're like, you know, we know how they work. its no the a problem. >> i'm just going to have enough food. they were supposed to be there for eight days. >> the we're talking about the ones that are going up next. >> oh, yeah. >> they're going up -- the high

space walk ever, right? >> you have seen the show -- >> once you get to a serb height. >> oh, my god this is more -- that looks even further away. >> all man kind on apple? >> i have not seen it. >> i haven't seen it. >> they kind of come up with all -- basically if the u.s. hadn't won the space race. and kind of they would have kept up this space program. they have all of these things that seem crazy for, you know, t happen to astronauts in space. and this you read these and sometimes the truth is stranger than fiction. >> i don't have it flovent me. elon musk has some plans for a launch, it's hlike three a week or something. >> wild. >> it used to be a lot of things always seem like they have to go -- i don't want to think about the o-rings or any of those. i mean, it just seems like in a normal commercial flight you can only have one mistake every nine

billion times or something. i don't know what it takes for this to be perfect. >> yeah. >> good luck tonight. >> absolutely. coming up, the rally -- the markets rallied on fed chair powell's indication that the rate rcuts are coming. we get into that discussion next. check out futures as we head to break. "squawk box" coming right back. ♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

let's take a closer look at the markets after jay powell's comments last week. joining us is global strategies president. good morning. you know, pretty unequivocal by jay powell on friday suggesting that soft landing remains in hand. inflation seems to be pretty steadily on a pace towards target. it's time to worry about any potential further weakness in the labor market. and cuts are coming. so, markets celebrated. what is your reaction? >> good morning, mike. thank you for having me. the beginning of the labor market is not weak. we created 14 thu t,000 jobs in. and then it picked up again. so april to july there was an increase. and we would probably have more jobs being created in the months to come.

second, inflation is still about target. and this last part of the journey is always very difficult. and chairman powell should know that. he declared that last december only to find out that in the first quarter of 2024 inflation perked up again. the risks here that i see, mike, are on the u.s. side that you can still have inflation picking up from different sources. particularly in the case of rent. it is remaining elevated. i don't think the increase in house prices is going to do anything to calm rent increases. they're going to stay high. and the global scene, again, we have uncertainties relating to fewer c fewer crisis could go up. so i think it is too soon to declare victory. >> powell didn't exactly declare victory over inflation last

december. he essentially said rates are peaking. inflation is down from the highs. and then when the market went too far in the beginning of this year, pricing in half a dozen cuts, you know, in a hurry, he quickly turned and said, no, that's not our plan. and i just wonder why you think that the fed's framework as it's been laid out for a long time which is if inflation is, you know, 2.5% or so, or at least under 3% and the fed funds rate is five and three eighths, it's time have a more balanced approach. >> it has come from increase in the participation rate on the labor. more people are looking for jobs. you can't find jobs of all of the people coming into the labor force. that seems to be the major reason why unemployment rate went up. rather than the fact that layoffs have been increased

which is not the case. so, i think the recommend i can that they use is wrong. second, in december he did indicate and the markets did take the message that rate cuts were imminent. and very little was done to calm down expectations of six rate cuts during 2024. and abruptly, he had to pivot again when inflation did not stay close to what he expected. he defended himself in the most recent jackson hole speech by saying he had a lot of company in the group. but is not an excuse. i was writing at the same time that inflation is going to stay high and sustained. and the interest rates were going to surge. all of those happened. i don't know why he's in a

hurry, number one. and why we should have the so-called forward guidance. i say so-called. because it only causes confusion. and why he should be saying that rates are going -- suggesting interest rates are going to be cut only to pivot again. >> this is one of the longest periods when the fed remained on pause after a tightening cycle. it's not as if it's a hurry. i feel hike the framework the fed is working with for a while leads them to exactly this conclusion. i guess if that's your view, that they're offside this far once again. you must hate bonds here. >> actually, i love bonds. i've been saying on this program repeatedly those who buy ten year and 30-year treasuries are going to benefit. and that's exactly the way this happened. i started to say that. in fact, joe is aware, i've been fighting the curve down and

saying that long is good. and the reason is i think that the fed will keep cutting. because i'm not saying that bonds are a good idea because inflation is going to stay low. i'm saying that because i think the fed will misjudge the situation. investors need to take advantage of that. and i can be saying for quite a while that my target for the ten year is 350 on it and we haven't reached that yet. we're going to get there. >> when you say the fed is misjudging the situation, do you think there is a potential that the august payroll is becoming much stronger than expected and, therefore, the adjustment toward policy easing won't ultimately take place? is that a possibility? >> leslie, i think august is better -- august turns out to be significantly higher job creation or not. the fed is determined to cut on

september 18th. i think it is no longer data dependent. even though the fed says it is data dependent, they want to interpret the data to suit whatever they want to do and clearly chairman powell and a few of his colleagues are itching for several months to cut rates. unfortunately, did not work out in december. and in september of this year, they are going to do it. my expectation is once this he do that, you're going to cause one more of a rally and then the markets essentially made the fed promise a rate cut. 35 basis points is not going to be enough on september 18th. the market is going to want 50. why not 75? why not keep increasing? cutting it by 50 basis points every meeting? problem with it is there is no end when the fed becomes a follower rather than the leader

of the market when you don't have set principles you determine interest rates by the markets are going to take advantage of it. >> all right. we'll see how it goes. i have to say -- if you think they're making a massive dovish mistake and the long send going to it is there at 3.5%, it will be interesting to see how that plays out. three weeks until the meeting. thank you. we appreciate it. >> coming up, intel may be preparing for an attack from investors. that story is next. later, we will talk to trump campaign surrogate and former presidential candidate vivek ramaswamy. he'll join us at 7:30 a.m. eastern time "squawk box" is coming right back. ameritrade is now part of schwab. bringing you an elevated experience, tailor-made for trader minds. ♪♪ go deeper with thinkorswim:

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i don't want to see what the shares are to be honest. let's check out the shares of intel. 20. chipmaker working with advisors including morgan stanley to fend off activist investors. you probably knew this was coming. according to people familiar with the matter, no new campaign has been formally launched. it isn't clear if an activist investor is in contact with the board of intel. morgan stanley is previously worked with intel including in the company's 2022 spinoff of mobile eye. let's see the market cap here.

>> 88. >> stock is down just year down nearly 60%. you can go back and look at a longer term chart. pretty unbelievable. >> it s tais around tangible bo value. >> yeah. and it's unclear whether there is an actual campaign or preemptively given what the stock has done. third of the levels it was in 2021. they tried a lot of different things. i mean, they're laying off employees and they're trying to cut costs. but i don't know how that gets them in -- >> looking at different buildings. >> the diat does leave legacy companies just in the dust a lot. which is weird. 26 and 27-year-olds really do

take over somehow in the baton gets handed. intel had everything you could possibly want going for it in terms of financial strength and facilities. you have to work hard to lose your way to that extent. and it's -- you can't say it xron couldn't have done. amd navigated. >> bei >>. >> look at the big three. >> yeah. >> coming up, team valuations for women's teams are skyrocketing. what about a venue for just a women's sports team? ttg uple hedge fund managers are beinbig to change all that. we'll have the story when ""squawk box"" returns. okay, team! oh, thank you so much i couldn't have done it without you. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here.

i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis, help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" live from times square. check the futures. wow. a lot happened since we last checked. now the dow is -- it was down

ten points. now it's -- if you weren't watching and you missed that. take a quick look at treasuries as well. 379 now on the ten year. and bitcoin which was up quite a bit on friday along with the averages and the nasdaq. it is up almost just under 64,000 again. >> in women's professional soccer, team valuations are skyrocketing and media rights deals and ticket sales. husband and wife hedge fund managers realized a critical piece of that puzzle is missing, a stadium built for the women's soccer team they co-owned the current when they met with dozens of backs to create financing. almost all of them said no. >> there was no precedent for, you know, a women's purpose-built facility for professional sports team.

we had that as our achilles heel. people say how do you value the team and how do we think about the projections are showing us. and so, it was quite a struggle. >> ultimately, the two jp morgan alums got the firm to finance $135 million state of the art stadium in five months since the stadium first opened the doors, they have largely proven the naysayers wrong with a sole out season. even standing room only tickets which retail for $20 apiece tend to resale upwards of $100. the economic benefits of a purpose huff built stadium go beyond ticket sales. they benefit from sponsorships, partnerships and naming rights and then the overall symbol of p perm annance. >> you have to believe in the long-term proposition of the league and the team and sport and professional women's sports. we never failed women's leagues that have been out there, you know, for years and years is

real. i think people were afraid. and now they really see the opportunity. and it feels like there's been such a change. like this is -- this changed the way they think about women's sports and it doesn't feel temporary at all. >> the kansas city current are ranked third in the league. something belongs to a tribute to the stadium being a place where players want to play so it helps from recruiting and retention standpoint, guys. >> where do most of the other women's teams in the leagues play? do they share one with the men's stadium? college stadiums? >> they usually share with the men's stadium. we attended a game at the red bull stadium which is where the new york women's soccer team plays in the same league. they were saying that previously they play at minor league baseball stadium. they just make do. they serve as tenants for other stadiums which they have to pay for. they have to work around the schedules of the team that kind of, you know, owns that stadium

or host that's staidup. and they don't get to showcase the same kind of sponsorship and partnership deals. it's just a lot messier. so, a lot of people who were focused on this and valuations and media rights, they say this is the next leg of growth for women's sports is this infrastructure element of it. >> does this have to work for it to continue, i would think? >> yeah. this is definitely going to be -- they said when they met with the dozens of bank that's told them no, the reason it brought models and these are hedge fund people. they know what the banks are looking for. but the problem is there was no precedent for it. the banks, you know, the risk averse and we don't know what a woman's sport ticket sale could look like five years down the road or ten years down the road. a lot of the leagues are nas ent. so this is going to be a use case that a the lo of future teams look for in terms of

whether or not to build or kind of do what it's been doing. >> we'll be watching it. i think make sure that cash flow is there and everything else. >> so far, it's a good start. >> yeah. excellent. a lot of stadiums built over in china that nothing going on. right? i guess depressed by it. look at that one in d.c. as you're getting back on the highway. you know, you always pass it. it's not being -- >> the newish one? >> not being used. the old one. it's just like rusted. i can't maimagine what it would take. >> rfk? >> is that one they're not using anymore? >> yeah. >> i don't know. >> i think it is rfk. >> there you go. >> there is that name again. back in the news. race to the white house. no now that the conventions are over, fund-raising attack ads, upcoming debates and talk about all of it. reminder, get the best "squawk

box" on the app.

trump downplaying the chances of elon musk serving in his administration. trump said that musk likely couldn't serve in a cabinet position due to the demanding schedule of running his various companies like tesla, x, and spacex. they have thrown out the idea of working together if the former president were to win a second term. they have a great relationship, adding, he's a totally unusual character but he's a brilliant guy. >> all right. that is not stepping out too much of a limb there. joining us now for a look at washington headlines this week, axios co-founder michael en. i checked the betting sites a lot, mike. one of them has -- not down to the tenth of the second but down to the second how far we are from election.

71 days, 18 hours, 18 minutes, and 17 seconds. so, that's where we are. 71 days. you got some interesting things to talk about. i don't know what you're expecting for a bounce, a post convention bounce. but the elephant in the room for me, and i just wonder where it stands for you and axios, how hard you are trying to get an interview with vice president harris? and if you're not, if other members of the media aren't, how can they look at themselves in the mirror in the morning and how long can they go on? because, i mean, we need to hear from her. do we not? >> joe, it's very rare that i can say thee words to you to start your monday morning, to start your 70 days. >> i was counting on it. saying something you might agree with. >> four words. your wish is granted.

this week vice president harris will deliver on her promise to tape a big interview by the end of the month. she said that, it seemed like a long way away. that is now this week. and you can expect her to deliver on that promise. absolutely. axios, other news organizations asking for interviews and she will do more. just a zoom out as we start the week here after both conventions are now in the books. the big picture, joe, republicans will will tell you that vice president harris has the thinnest edge as she comes out of her convention. she had 30 days in politics that you can only dream of as one friend of mine put it. she had 30 days of ball control which you rarely have in politics. but democratic sources tell me they are very clear. they know what's ahead. a, however undisciplined president trump is on truth social or other places, the

former president will pop-up, that his paid media ads will be disciplined and they will be rough. vice president harris may make a mistake. you always get your time in the barrel as president obama said. and the democrats recognize that media always looking for a new story line pretty soon will start to say did vice president harris peak too soon? flip? republicans who know that they're a little bit behind, they think it was a big moment, potentially game changing when the georgia governor and president trump made up after president trump insulted him on his own turf. you saw the governor out on tv saying something nice about him. trump saying something nice about the governor online. that is enough to fix a big thing that is a massive state. you'll see vice president harris

on a bus tour in southern georgia this week showing how much they're focused on it. >> rfk, too, that got less than, i guess, maybe expected. >> well, it's -- it makes so much less difference than we night mooit have thought a couple months ago. >> right. exactly. i thought the speech was riveting. but you had tobacco watching a specific network to see anyone carry the entire text of the rfk speech. did you watch it? >> i was on a plane. i read it. and, joe, i know that you -- since you were watching, i didn't have to. >> yeah. exactly. sometimes i feel that way. i feel that way about you. other members of the media might have been chafing a little bit at the things said. the internal polling, is that -- that story was out. i don't know whether that was

axios. >> you know, joe, i can just tell you. that is the reality of political gravity in a 50/50 america. so trump campaign last week put out a preemptive memo saying they expected harris bump. and should just come out of not only a great month but a great week. but this is where democrats tell me that they're clear eyed. they recognize that whatever the national polls say that, like, what matters, is those seven states. and a very specific swath of voters in those seven states. and, so, the irrational exuberance was the phrase that will resonate with your audience. i heard a ton in chicago. democrats said, you got to give harris and the team credit.

this type of unity in the democratic party, i have a friend that had been to nine conventions, he said that this was the first democratic convention where there weren't computing factions or caucuses when everybody was on the same page. but that was not for ordained. the fact that i command of the biden campaign is now the highest command -- high command of the campaign is a hellof an accomplishment. >> i think we need to hear more, obviously. and i don't, you know, from where i'm sitting just running on, you know, trump is bad, is -- and then some of the policies that are rolling out, i mean, i, obviously, you either are someone that, you know, that thinks you need to let the free markets work properly, low regulation, whatever you want to look ate. but each policy that is rolled out, you know, whether it's the

ib c increase in capital gains or increase in the corporate rate, the price control. and then i hear none of these things are going to pass and she doesn't mean it. it is just a way of sort of appealing to the populous base to get them fired up. that irritates me as well. >> well, yeah. joe, you can't have it both ways. >> tariffs. >> other things you can -- >> i can definitely have it both ways. i don't know if you've seen the show. i can definitely visit both ways. >> fair enough. joe, great reporting up on axios from both sides this morning. and interesting tension that axios hans nichols points, to a cherry picking of economic figures and reality. president trump at every turn will be pointing to what is wrong with the economy, reminding americans that their wallets still hurt them. he's going to do that through the end.

vice president harris will be pointing to inflation, unemployment, pointing to the correct -- the direction of all those indicators. and saying that they're better. there is a rerun in reverse of what we saw last time when president trum whop have a big jobs day. vice president biden running against him would talk it down. from the harris side, axios is back from chicago. there is some great reporting inside the harris camp. one of the strategies is to try to outwork president trump. he is picking up his pace this week. you see that on the front page of "the wall street journal" today. over the weekend, his campaign announced events later this week in, wait for it, michigan, wisconsin, and pennsylvania. >> i don't know outwork means. he takes questions almost every day. she has not taken a question. the ratings -- >> she has a formal interview

which she'll do this week, joe. >> that's great. yeah. reading from a teleprompter is not -- let me tell you. reading from a teleprompter is not working from someone who knows. >> i can tell you, why do couples choose a sleep number smart bed? is as firm as my heart desires. my heart desires soft. sleep number does that. your ideal firmness and effortless comfort, all night. during our biggest sale of the year, save 50% on the sleep number® limited edition smart bed and free delivery when you add any base. food isn't just fuel to live.

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when come back to "squawk box." gas prices are expected to fall to $3.27 this holiday weekend or lower in some regions of the country. that's down 13% from a year ago and the lowest labor day price since 2021. joining us now, patrick mahon. what do you attribute these to? is it weather, geopolitics? why are we seeing relief this year? >> kind of a bit of all of the above. we haven't seen heat waves which last year knocked out refineries, especially on the west coast and the corn belt, that happened going into labor

day. that's why last year's average was nearly 50 cents a gallon higher than this year. the u.s. and china are not seeing as much oil and gasoline demand compared to last year, and that breathing room provided the room for gas prices to decline. it is going to get better here as we get into labor day. prices are continuing to drop. we expect by labor day another 7 cent drop or so and it gets better. we are tracking seven states below $3 a gallon and 20% of the nation's gas stations reporting a price below $3, and those numbers will continue to rise as we get into the fall. >> i'm curious about the interplay between consumer behavior with regard to evs and gas demand, and i ask because you have got ford and gm recently recalibrating their ev ambitions. largely that's due to just consumer behavior and the decision by a lot of consumers

to opt for a hybrid or just a traditional type of car. how do you think gas prices play a role there and what does it mean for demand for gas if we are seeing touch a large-scale recalibration relative to what we were expecting? >> that's a great question, something we are talking about here at this convention is all of that talk about manufacturers that are moving back to hybrids, kind of away from some of the evs. america in some of the areas is just not ready, and with low energy prices americans like the reliability of having a vehicle they can run on battery power for a certain amount of miles and also have the reliance of the massive fuel network, the 150,000 gas stations across the country. that's part of the conversation that is limiting somewhat the return of gasoline demand to pre-pandemic levels, but it is certainly something americans are looking at more, that is hybrid rather than full-on electric vehicles. we are seeing manufacturers

certainly pivot to americans looking for more of the hybrids. >> i never thought about that, patrick. what would you call it, volt buddy dot-com, electric? i'm glad for you. >> i think you have a lot of great ideas there. i think you are on tosomething. >> volt buddies if you are looking for electric prices. i couldn't help but think, it is a beautiful system the way the dynamics of supply and demand override everything else? i mean if these companies decided $5 a gallon gas would be s awesome, they can't do it. you can't put it at $5, we don't need controls. things happen base on supply and demand. >> it is a supply and demand story. we will hear more getting closer to the election. at the end of the day it is about global supply and demand, not just in the u.s. the u.s. one of the bigger

stories and china, but it is good old econ101. >> volt buddy. what do you think it should be? >> i think fuel buddy still covers it. >> not if you are plugging it in, not really. >> power buddy. >> power buddy, i like that. >> you know what? i think you have time, patrick. good news -- >> i will be listening to all of your ideas. >> i think you have time. well, they built two charging stations, didn't they, with the money? are they working on three? >> i haven't tracked it. >> i like power pal with patrick. >> there you go. >> i like that one, too. >> thank you, patrick. >> thank you. it is just past 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. you are watching "squawk box." here are some of the top stories we are watching. nearly 10,000 canadian rail workers are ending the work stoppage today, the move coming

after the labor relations board decided with the government directing canadian national and canadian pacific kansas city, cpkc. >> there you go. >> a new stadium. to resume operations and imposed binding arbitration. ibm is shutting down r & d operations in china. the dow jones is reporting ibm told employees it is moving the function to overseas facilities including india, another overseas facility. kroger and albertson's head to court to defend their merger. it would be the largest supermarket deal in history. already been a couple of years. it was in 2022, saying it would help them actually cut costs to compete better with companies like walmart and cost coy. all right. the federal reserve signaling a rate cut is coming but markets

wonder by how much. steve liesman noticed something else different at jackson hole. steve, with the weekend to reflect, what did you find? >> you know, mike, beyond the headline, which everybody is talking about that fed chair jay powell is signaling rate cuts ahead, there was indeed something else notable about the jackson hole conference this year. it was the calm about the outlook, a sense of having emerged from crisis. look at jackson hole versus the prior two years. the fed gathered with a 55% recession probability in 2022. some improvement last year as the fed met in jackson hole, better inflation but still elevated. recession chance, rates were signalled to remain on hold and they did. big difference this year, diminished recession probability, lower inflation and the market predicting 200 basis

cuts. that's baked in there. the fed has ammunition to address the weakness that emerged. that's part of the calm there. central banks are still restrictive so they continue to put downward pressure on the remaining inflation above target. a big story. emerging markets which were supposed to blow up they remained stable despite fears that the hikes would create huge challenges in emerging markets. there's still obviously big challenges ahead. some committee members sound like they want to move more slowly than others and main tay higher rates. remain high fiscal debt around the world, it doesn't matter much relief no matter who wins in the presidential election. there was maybe, guys, a little less urgency. >> steve, you know, there was a lot of celebration in the wake of powell's remarks as we discussed because he didn't really dwell on data dependency. he's very clear about how he

sees things going from here, saying, you know, further weakness in the labor market would not be sought or welcome. all of that is to the good, but yet the market is going to depend on the incoming data to figure out exactly sort of the pace and timing of what happens next, including this jobs number just ahead. >> i think that's exactly right, mike, but maybe the difference is now we will not be running the economy based upon a hundredth of a point of the inflation report, right? remember how the market would freak out if it was a soft two or a hard two? what was a soft .2? i think there's a range around the data that says, hey, if we're on the way there we can cut rates, fed still would be restrictive, you know, depending on where you put it in. a lot of talk in the back room where the neutral is, how

restrictive the federal reserve is and where you are to maintain. hey, mike, you always debate tempo, right? >> yeah. >> it is always a question of how fast you go and how far you go. so we're kind of back to normal. now, these are not inconsequential debates but they're the kind of debates we used to have all the time. how fast do you go, how far do you go. >> absolutely. the stakes might be, as you suggest, a little lower in terms of whether we get 25, 50 this time or where we go as long as the destination is known. thank you, steve. >> sure. coming up, we will talk about the market week ahead. later, former presidential trump campaign surrogate vivek ramaswamy joins us to discuss the harris/walz agenda and what it could mean.

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welcome back. let's talk markets now as investors prep for the last week of trading in august, if you can believe it. join inning anastasia amarosa. we are coming off jackson hole, we have pce this week, nvidia this week. how are you thinking about portfolio allocation? >> sure, good to see you. i think coming in after jackson hole last week, investors should come with a sense of renewed optimism, renewed conviction and renewed confidence. the setup for the market is constructive because we have this relative certainly that the rates are being cut starting in september, and at the same time we have this renewed conviction in the economy as well, which looked like or it was feared

would have a hard landing earlier in august. but now i think we are squarely headed for a soft landing once again. so that's a constructive backdrop for sure. you know, the fact that we're not just talking about a rate cut but a rate cutting cycle historically supported stocks in a non-recession scenario. on average stocks rallied about 15% after the first rate cut, so that's why i suspect we are going to continue to have this positive sentiment to the markets in the coming weeks. >> what do you think all of this means for capital markets activities? i know you are also focused on private markets, and you would think with the broadening out of the rally bringing small to mid cap stock up along with it as well as the potential for a rate cutting cycle, that would bode well for things like ipos and additional capital markets activity. is this kind of the catalyst that ceos in the c-suite was looking for? >> yeah, i think that's exactly right. i mean this was very constructive for capital markets

activity. when we look at measures, it has been ticking up for a number of quarters but ipo activity has been slow to follow but it is starting to follow through. also an up tick in mna activity and much more is expected in the second half of the year. the missing point was exactly this, the definition of uncertainty where interest rates are going which would therefore support valuation over a certain level. i expect a pickup there. taking a step back, it is not just about a boost of sentiment from rate cuts, but it is about the boost to economic activity. one of the things that's been lacking, for example, any rate sensitive purchases, but if you look at some of the rates in commercial loans and industrial loans based off of those, the facts they're not resetting lower as we speak, that's very

constructive. so i think that's what the ceos are going to be looking for, is better financing conditions, mean better fundamentals for the companies and, therefore, they can do much better in capital markets. >> does that suggest to you though that perhaps the market is already priced in and consumers and businesses have already kind of capitalized on the benefit of lower rates, that when it ultimately if it does happen in september, may not be as much of a market moving event because so much of it has been priced in and so much of the behavior has already been effectualized? >> i think it is a great question, leslie. i think we have to decouple the market reaction from the economic reaction and the reaction overtime. near time i would agree. the fact the fed is cutting rates in september certainly came as no surprise to the bond markets, for example, that priced in four rate cuts by the end of the year. that's not a surprise.

therefore, when the fed ultimately delivers, maybe the market reaction, you know, stock reaction is somewhat muted. but the fact that consumers and corporations are going to start feeling the lone reset, that doesn't occur overnight. it occurs over time. it occurs with some sort of a lag. i suspect in the coming quarters is when we will still continue to feel the benefit of rates that are being lowered, and if that's the case that should provide support to the economy and over time it should provide support to earnings. i think that's why, leslie, you know, the market resumes historically an upward trajectory because the economy responded to the rate cuts. >> and that's why a lot of investors have been allocating a more toward banks, more towards real estate. i know you are in that camp as well. >> that's right. we have been in a barbell approach -- first of all, you

should have allocations to broader sectors like yu utiliti because they tend to do well around the interest policy. the other part of the barbell is the basket of rotation trade which includes real estate on the public and private side. it includes banks which are highly leveraged through real estate, of course, and it could include things like small caps. if you look at that basket of rotation trades they fared fairly well since the beginning of july. i would also add, you know, to that sort of extended barbell approach, i would add semiconductors and with nvidia reporting this week as well. semiconductors snapped back but still trading 10% below the all-time high, and being cyclical and a.i. driven it

continues to be a good place for investors as well. there's a lot to do in the market as well. >> as you bring up, nvidia the big one to watch this year. thank you, anastasia. >> thank you, leslie. when we come back, $60 million in prizes being awarded to the world's top esports teams over the weekend at the esports world cup. we will speak to the foundation's ceo about the rapidly growing world of competitive video gaming. then former-president trump surrogate vivek ramaswamy will join us with us the reaction to the harris-walz economic plan. we'll be right back.

the first-ever esports world cup coming to a close this weekend in riyadh. more than 1500 players competed for a total prize pool of $60 million. >> has risen above the rest, team falcon. >> the local saudi club team falcons won the championship for act vision's "call of duty war zone." joining us is the ceo of the esports world cup foundation.

ralph, give us a sense of this scene in terms of, you know, the spectators. we know the financial stakes, but exactly, you know, how long did this competition last and how did it go this year? >> i mean if you look at video games overall, there are billions of players at this point of time and esports is a sub set of it. you usually sayit spans across 21 different games, which is the first time this comes together. it has a chance to speak to more than one of the sub communities, and we culminated yesterday with team falcons, the local club, winning. team liquid, a u.s./dutch hybrid team in second with $4 million of prize money. we culminated with 500 million viewers across the eight weeks the tournament happened. think about it a little bit like the olympics meeting a club competition where it is not about nations but really about

those established clubs which have about there for 20, 25 years in esports almost. >> how does it work in terms of the actual video game publishers and which games are played and licensed? >> i mean if you think about a publisher, it is almost like the international federation of the sport, right? they own the ip. they actually own every picture across the world. they are the key stakeholder to actually get the license, which we need to do at the esports world cup. we have been in the lucky position that the whole industry gathered behind this. we have all of the best games, which is one of our core promises, and then you have in every game a little bit of a different competition again than from remote perspective. some are one-on-one, some are in teams and so forth, like cycling versus basketball. >> are the teams -- is there anything like an open competition to filter into this as a tournament or is it kind

of, you know, corporate-backed teams that are mostly preset? >> there are two layers to this. number one, we have a club partnership program where we support teams. we are a foundation and our mission is to stabilize the industry and grow it. so we've done almost like a marketing and acceleration program to help those clubs field more teams, that's number one. generally speaking, the $60 million of prize money are open for everyone. that means all of the qualifications go all over the world and we've had more than 35,000 top athletes participating in it. we had some cinderella stories, for example, in easc, the football game, a guy from portugal really traveled to respond and participate in a physical qualifier for this, qualified to the last chance qualifying in riyadh. wasn't part of the main field.

y went first there, went through the main tournament and then won prize money. that's the cinderella story. >> you have a huge field of folks that think they can compete at that level. ralph, thank you for the time this morning. >> thanks so much. coming up, stuck in space. how elon musk is wkiorng to get two astronauts home. this is "squawk box." we will be right back.

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the two astronauts stranded on the international space station will be coming home early 2025 and will be getting a ride from elon musk. nasa decided that boeing's starliner capsule will return empty from the station after bringing the pair up in june. the test flight was intended for eight days. this marks a dramatic about face for nasa and boeing as the organizations were previously adamant that the capsule was the primary choice for returning the crew, but starliner's crew flight test faced problems, most notably with the propulsion system. the astronauts are now expected to return to earth in february

on spacex's dragon capsule. boeing down more than 33% this year. certainly not the kind of headline boeing needs at this juncture. >> yeah. looking at, i guess, a couple of boosters that didn't work for a little while or something on the way up, and then it was discovered there is a helium leak. i don't know what that necessarily would mean. so now they're going to send it down in september with no one on board. >> yeah. >> i mean it probably would be -- probably would be okay. >> right, well, there you go. >> would you like -- i'm going with you, i don't know, i might -- >> did you see that they closed down the cyclone roller coaster in coney island because a sprocket was broken in the machine room? they walked everybody down. they didn't take a chance on that, so they have to be safe here. >> you've seen it where it stops upside down, people have to be on -- i'm done. i'm done. but there will be grandkids some day maybe.

i don't know. i don't want to do it. i'm not going to do it. up next, kamala harris's economic message, reaction from former presidential candidate and current trump campaign surrogate, and i think he was valedictorian at st. xavier high school in cincinnati. i don't know how much he got jugged. do you know what that is? justice under god. he will be with us. futures up othn e dao, now down on the nasdaq. the market's closed. futures don't sleep in the after hours, bro. dad, is mommy a “finance bro?” she switched careers to make money for your weddings. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think.

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look at "the washington post." if you lose "the washington post" as a democrat you have serious problems. this is what they said about the price gouging -- or the price control legislation. it was really pillory from both sides of the aisle, even jason furman. i don't know if you saw his comments. he said, it is not good policy and it could actually do more harm than good. i can paint you a picture of how that would work and how it has worked in the past where we've tried to artificially hold prices down. competition doesn't come in. people don't -- like if beef is

too high, people don't move to chicken. competitors don't come in to undercut where the beef prices are. nothing works when you try to artificially control prices. it is just a supply-and-demand issue. it is a flawed idea. >> so did you have a question here? >> yes, why would you propose a flawed idea? >> senator elizabeth warren on "squawk box" last year sharing her thoughts on price controls. our next guest says enacting surprise controls is a terribly de. joining us, trump campaign surrogate, former presidential candidate vivek ramaswamy. got a big head start in life from the crazy jesuits, but from the salt of the earth, from cincinnati, but from the good side of town, right? >> that's exactly right. >> were you on the east side of town? >> grew up on the east side of i-75, that's right. >> that figures. i'm over in pete rhodes country,

west side of the town. good to have you on, good to see you. >> good to see you. >> we don't know a lot about the harris-walz economic plan but it has been trickling out, and it is almost a -- to a free market person or a -- i guess a classic conservative, it is like watching a clockwork orange, i'm like this watching it coming out, whether it is raising the rate on kpcorporate taxes or gog up to, what is it, close to 45% on capital gains for some individuals. but most people who defend it say, oh, she doesn't mean it, will never happen. >> i agree with my friends at "the washington post," if you don't want your opponent to tag you as a communist maybe your first policy shouldn't be a bunch of price controls in the united states. we have seen price controls fail in every other major country

that tried it, argentina, venezuela. you have seen it proposed here. the fact it was her signature unveiling says a lot where her vision is. to borrow tim walz's expression, it is just plain weird for them to focus even on the grocery sector if they were going to implement price controls because it is a sector when you look at the profit margins of kroger oral bert son's, you arelooking at 2%, 1% profit margins. i saw the interview elizabeth warren did with you and i respectfully disagree with you. the reality is that their profit margins are lower today than in 2015 or 2016. it is a plain weird fixation.

the reality, look at defense of her policies. what you hear across the board, it is not going to pass, don't worry about it. if it is price controls, don't worry, congress won't pass it. if it is about fracking which she supported before, don't worry, it won't pass. if it is tax on the unrealized capital gains which everybody knows will be a disaster, what they whisper back is, don't worry, it won't pass. even though the left wing are not defending the merits of her policies, all they're arguing to the public is they will never be enacted to law. that speaks a lot to the campaign. >> we will have jason furman on a little later, i guess people don't believe. did you see "the new york times"? i thought it was funny. really did grow up in berkeley, it is in berkeley. during the speech it was i grew up on the bay.

i grew up in oakland, i grew up east of -- so not saying berkeley anymore at this point. i guess not saying that her father would have informed her opinions on anything, but no longer a marxist economist. what was it? he is a post-keynesian economist that has some neoricardian. we are supposed to think our original opinion is not the case. it worked well for the past 30 days, vif el. y you have to admit. >> i think the pr worked outstandingly for the last 30 years, the question is can it last through the election. what i hold against kamala harris is her own stated policy convictions. when she ran for u.s. president just four years ago she said she wanted to abolish private health

insurance. that means anybody who is watching this who likes their private health insurance today -- >> i think she has backed off -- i'm reading she has backed off on all of those. but how would we know? i asked michael allen about this, for the mainstream media to not have insisted on answering some extemporaneous questions not from a teleprompter this far into the candidacy is mind boggling and it can only be the mainstream media is complicit in trying to help her. >> look, i think the mainstream media covered for joe biden's cognitive deficits for three years in much the same way at least many so far are covering for kamala harris's policy deficit. the reason we're having this conversation is i hope it changes. i think the american voters deserve better. you might agree with donald trump'spolicies or not, but at least he has given you policies from digital assets to

cryptocurrency to health care that he would either abolish and replace obamacare, the ukraine conflict, you may not agree with his policies but at least he has given them to you. the other thing i will say, joe, have republicans been perfect on issues like price control? no, they haven't. a lot came up under carter and also nixon. in recent years some favored price controls in certain areas. the reality is if you compare the democrats to republicans it is not close which one is taking the venezuelan style approach to controlling the economy. the irony is that will be worse for even the very people they purport to serve when the supply shortages come in, when you have a tax on unrealized capital gains which triggers an asset price crash that hurts the people at the bot most. that's the reality.

>> i talked with senator warren about that. let's talk, you know, about how we can help with inflation instead, but it was on the same day that i did see a journal piece that talked about the foot soldiers of the democratic party are all fired up about price -- it just continues the same sort of anti-corporate rhetoric that we saw, you know, greedy corporations. we heard that again and again and again from the biden administration. this fires up the base, but what scares me, vivek, and i think ronald reagan said it, every generation needs to learn this new, that you end up eating your pets if you go down the path to socialism. there's enough young people that don't know it right now she could easily get elected, vivek. >> the reality, of course she could easily get elected. it will be a tight race through the very end, but the reality is it could be good for americans if we are able to have that policy debate.

if this is fought on personality i think the american public lose as a result. when kamala harris and tim walz call donald trump and the 70 plus million americans that support him just plain weird. i think it divides us in the end rather than offering an alternative vision. they haven't done that. if the media doesn't do it, we need to bring her policies to the fore, when she has co-sponsored legislation with bernie sanders for medicare for all, single payer health care, when she co-sponsored the green new deal legislation that would abolish the coal industry, that they said they would eliminate the filibuster to pass through, that's the kind of policy debate we deserve to be having. for those who say we want to defend our democracy, part of our democracy is actually having those open policy debates that at least so far in this race -- and it is only 30 days since

she's been the presumptive nominee, but so far in those 30 days we have not yet been having -- and i for my part as an american want to see that change because that's how voters are best served. i challenge kamala harris to actually defend, not just slogans like mind your own damn business, you heard that from tim walz. my view is the government should minds its own business when it comes to taking gas stoves, when it comes to intervening in the grocery market or taxing unrealized gains. let's have that debate in the open and the country will be better off for it. >> vivek, former-president trump said we will target everything from car affordability to housing affordability to the price of prescription drugs. i will instruct my cabinet i will expect results in the first 100 days, how is that an actual plan? >> one of the things that is near and dear to my heart as well, taming the regulatory

state. >> in 100 days? >> i think so. we have a supreme court in the last two years that has given us history-making decisions, overturning chevron deference and west virginia versus epa which i believe is the most important case of our lifetime in 2022 with the major question doctrine. basically said if congress did not pass this through the front door, then a regulation that deals with the major policy question is unconstitutional. that is seismic in its coast. trump did not have it at his back in 2016 and 2017. when you are talking about a new administration taming the regulatory state, the supreme court has provided a tool kit to do it. we just need a president and administration willing to wield it. 100 days, i would like to see it in less than that. >> it was fiscal policy that caused the inflation, not --. >> there's a range of facts. it is not just inflation. when you look at the fact prices have gone up at a faster rate

than wages, that's the gap americans are hurting for. when it relation to energy, let's talk about abundance, drill, frack, burn coal, use nuclear energy. a lot of that is through restraint through the department of interior. when you look at permits for refineries or drilling or offshore drilling which kamala harris recently favored a ban on, that's -- >> we are looking at -- >> inclusive of the strategic oil reserve. >> no, no, the production. >> versus the three years that lead us here, as you well know, but the reality to your point, does the regulatory role play a role in giving us a supply shortage? absolutely it does. can it be addressed? yes, it can. the question is, is the president willing to do it. donald trump is. i believe kamala harris the answer is know. >> what about the ftc with regard to the regulatory state

in we can debate price controls but does the trump camp believe prices are too high for american consumers and, if so, is anti-competitive and ensuring anti-monopoly behavior part of the platform to bring the prices down? >> it is one of the beauties on the republican party, we have a big tent on this issue. i think empowering the three-letter agencies including the ftc, including with vaguely defined mandates like kamala harris has proposed with the price gouging proposal in the grocery market is a mistake. i don't think given further authority to decide what does or does not count as fair competition is a particularly pro american thing to do. competition is generally the way you look at segments like the grocery market, which is fragmented, which is competitive. we don't need the ftc empowered with further authority and i'm consistent in my view of that. i think we have overempowered three letter agencies across the

board. i think our founding fathers never envisioned it. it wasn't that way for most of national history and i think with respect to the ftc or other any three letter agency is to actually constrain the scope of what they're wanting to do. if the american people want to do it, they can do it through congress, not through backdoor rule making written by people never elected to make the rules in first place. that's the way i see it. >> vivek, good to have you on this morning. hopefully it won't be so long until next time we see each other. good to have you on. >> good conversation. thank you, guys. >> okay. coming up, a preview of nvidia's results which will be released wednesday with gene munster. we will be right back. search talent all over the world with over 10,000 skills you may not have in house. more than 30% of the fortune 500 use upwork because this is how we work now.

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i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. coming up, pivotal report for big tech and the overall market this week. we will preview nvidia's result and talk tech names with gene munster next. . as we head to a break, a

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sell-off, yes, nvidia reporting earnings wednesday after the market closes. the company's expected to address the blackwell delay issue on the call. joining us to talk about nvidia and how that can impact the big tech and overall market sentiment is gene munster. deepwater asset management partner. thank you for being here. an important, big week. you think odds of skewed nvidia actually trades down on earnings. why is that? >> you hit the pressure point right out of the gate there, and that is, of course, related to the blackwell delay last quarter. jensen long said they're going to have a lot of blackwell demand. a lot of blackwell revenue. specifically in calendar '24. i suspect it's going to be modest revenue. we're talking about a three-month delay, and ultimately i think that for investors who are just hyperfocused on every minute what this company is doing, that could be viewed as a slight

negative. also keep in mind stock is up 30% over the last three weeks, just shy of 5% of its all-time highs. so you generally -- there's a ton of noise around the quarter. i think this blackwell piece is probably the most impoimportantxf x factor about the quarter and why the stock i think will trade down modestly. i don't think the stock action should be representative of the opportunity nvidia over the next couple of years. >> so, this is a company that does have a history of overdelivering. regardless of the promises it makes. do you think this time will be different? if so, if it does trade down, do you think the knock-on effect for other big tech names could be more sizable in magnitude? >> i think that that's the risk this week, of course. just to zero in on the next five days is that the market is going to be -- this is the only thing that matters to the a.i. trade this week. obviously it's the biggest

factor in general. of course, with earnings, so, yes, if there is a modest pullback i think if there's anything around blackwell, i think that could be perceived as a negative for kind of broader tech that -- especially mega caps that enjoyed some of this a.i. movement here. i still think we're early in this, but i want to frame in that i think that trading in the near-term doesn't impact what's ultimately going to happen. i think that investors are going to get hyperfocused this week but it's ultimately going to probably miss what i still believe is the biggest opportunity we've seen in 20 years. i still think we are in early innings of a three to five-year tech bull market that's powered by a.i. and i think that all of these, many of these big tech companies will do well over the next couple years as that starts to go. so, yes. i think this is going to be, probably, a more difficult week for broader, big tech, but

ultimately shares will recover quickly as investors come to grips with what i think is a stronger a.i. trade than what many believe is today. >> one of the stories that seems in play in terms of why there was such great out performance amonged nasdaq 100-type stocks, the scare of goethe and reliable growth paths ahead and now broadened out. the rest of the market is actually clicking back to positive earnings growth. you saw the equal-waited s&p outperforming the nasdaq 100. seems as if it's through no fault of their own. maybe just not the preferred trade anymore. is that something you think can persist or do you essentially still see kind of a tech bubble brewing up ahead? >> i think we're still very early, and just to kind of put into context. we talk a lot about the quarter, stock action around nvidia getting to the broader theme. i think the most important thing about the nvidia quarter, back to that one minute. it's important relative to the

overall conversation. jensen's comments what will happen with demand over the next one, two years. two quarters ago said more demand than they can supply through this year. last quarter he said well into 2025. if he continues to reiterate that, demand continuing to be more favorable. i believe he will do that. continues to reiterate more demand than supply i think investors, i think, awareness of this substance of what's going to happen is going to continue to be illuminated. ultimately i think that these companies are going to continue to do very well. take apple, for example. i think ultimately they can earn $8, $9 kind of by 2026. and i think that's well higher than what many think. mike, i believe that this is just a fundamental, a lot of awareness around a.i. but i

think the significance what it will do is still underappreciated by the market. >> gene, we had bradley tusk of tusk ventures on last week on "mad money." pe talked about start-ups with that a.i. bend aren't getting the pie in the sky valuations they had been getting. demonstrable slowdown and reset of valuations. i'm curious how that translates to the public markets, do you think, in terms of incremental dollars still seeking a.i. plays and just the overall storied nature of a.i. at this point in the cycle? >> so, in the public side, still in this hardware phase. software phase largely hasn't taken root. that's largely going on in private markets. some of these foundational, these ordained private companies, deepwater, also invest in private empcompanies have a venture arm. we think best sunopportunities on the public site.

one or two years. the focus related to a.i. and the public markets should be around the duration what the hardware trade will look like. if you look at nvidia's growth rates, it's 100% in '24. goes to 40% on a 15% encounter in '26. essentially hitting the wall. they'll exceed that and see across the board, we like micron, for example. hardware trade even though there is a deceleration factor to it, i believe that the street will exceed those estimates and i'm looking forward separately to this crop in a couple years of these new private companies that are going to, i think, public investors will be really excited about. >> i'm looking forward to that, too. and dow earnings this week as well. gene munster, thanks for being here. >> thank you. it is just before 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with mike

santoli and leslie picker. andrew and becky are off this morning. among today's top stories oil prices rising. traders looking at conflicts in the middle east including israel between hamas and israel and strikes in hezbollah over the weekend. nasa deciding two astronauts will hitch a ride home on spacex's dragon ship instead of the doege starliner cakansas cat brought them to the international space station back in june. and starliner returning empty. represent as black eye for boeing but a win for spacex. ibm will shut down its research production. and futures at this hour. s&p and dow implying to open higher, but barely.

nasdaq implied to open down about 34 points. treasuries. let's take a look at the treasury complex as well this morning. got the ten year above 3.8. again, barely at this point. two year, 3.913%. meantime, fed chair jay powell's speech on friday in jackson hole seems to have helped restore wall street's faith in an economic soft landing. mike's been looking at how long that can last. seems like it's lasted for better part of the year. >> the most part has. although you've had kind of gut checks and bouts doubt along the way. that peak in mid-july was that moment when we had maximum faith i think in the soft landing. maximum long positioning in things like tech. pullback. soft economic numbers along the way and the market has been more sensitive to growth risks than to persistent inflation for a while. i think friday's comments by

powell essentially came back in line with the absolute preferred message that investors want to see from the fed central banker. take a look at nasdaq 100 relative to equal-weighted s&p 500. obviously, closer than they were just a month or two ago and that big jump in -- that moment where it took off in july was after the cpi report for june. you had that very debenign cpi report. and powell said majority stocks in catch-up along the way. the city economic surprise index shows there's still a pattern here of economic numbers coming in below forecast. not absolute activity levels. that's a three-year chart but shows below zero. shows on balance the numbers coming in weaker. why you have a sensitivity. makes sense the market reacted in this positive way to what powell had to say. the question, once you get back

to towards peak valuations above 21 times earnings, have you already taken credit for that leaving you susceptible to numbers that deviate from the preferred. >> given that concern, and kind of knee-jerk reaction, as we saw in early august, what does that mean for the potential for a 50 basis point cut versus a 25 boisz basis point cut from a psychological standpoint insofar as the cut signifies maybe a sort of counterpoint to the soft landing narrative? >> exactly. history said when the fed is easing in smaller increments more deliberately over a prolonged period of time and not urgently in big chunks is better for stocks. and the economy. the playbook says historically you'll hear a lot of this. paid to sell stocks on the first rate cut. mainly because some of those first rate cuts happened in

2000, 2008. and in other words, they led to recessions, proceeded to recessions meaning fed was late. the bet the fed's not late. more like mid-90s cut a couple times trimmed around the edges, markets never looked bad. >> thank you -- oh, thanks, mike. you were supposed to say that. >> that's okay. >> we both thank you. >> we're all very thankful here. >> just going to read the teleprompter. >> thought it was like, okay. but i don't really think it needs a thank you. plus it is your job. >> didn't have a choice. krogers and albertson heads to court today proposed largest supermarket deal in u.s. history prosed back in 2022 saying it could help them cut costs, compete better with walmart and costco. take your pick. amazon, trader joe's. the federal trade commission sued to block the merger saying it would eliminate competition and actually end up being higher

grocery prices. higher grocery prices. you know who that is? san santelli. not santoli. >> phil has the chicago accent. >> he does. elon musk talks about this a lot. the great santelli or the great santoli? it was the great santini. >> the movie. right. >> robert duvall. but you're both great t. >> that's why we thank you. >> deserve thanks. canadians rail work others ending their work stoppage today the country's labor relations board cited with a govegoverresume of operations proposed binding operation. the teamsters union will apply but plans to appeal in court. they expect the network and rail

chains to fully recover from the stoppage over the next several weeks. more news on the struggle to sell paramount global. aide gur bronfman has plans to improve its streaming service. bron bronfman put in for ad sales, licensing and growing its customer base. you see paramount indicated up a quarter percent. in this range for a while. and economic debate you don't want to miss. emerging plans from donald trump and kamala harris. with two former chairs of the white house council of economic advisers. actually people that used to sit on them. although we had a chair once, clint eastwood, remember that? with romney? >> talk or talked to -- >> the chair looked unhappy.

evan has itssett served under president trump. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box." be right back.

major args coming off back-to-back pos weeks. of course, that was helped by friday's rally on fed chair's race cuts ahead. for more on the markets, u.s. head of wealth at shroaders joins us. >> good to see you. >> good to see you here. markets seem to feel as if maybe we've kind of nailed this thing. that there isn't really a serious trade-off to be worried about at this point in terms where rates go relative to the economy, earnings, and stocks. where do you fit with all of that? >> hate to be a debbie downer but concerned about the rally seen over the last three weeks. almost as if the market cease exactly how many cuts they will do and willing to bet powell and other fed members do not. fed is uncertain. powell sed rate cuts are coming, but he didn't elaborate or say

getting 50 in september or 25. certainly didn't elaborate on the pace of rate cuts. as we've seen in the past, the fed puts out a summary of economic projections, a set which shows the consensus view where fed fund rates are going. usually they get it wrong. i think a lot more certainty priced into the market than we'll get out of the fed in september. >> there is a school of thought that says without knowing, even pretending no know exactly how far or fast rates might go down, the fed has a couple of hundred basis points. what it believes to be excess restrictiveness in their policy and therefore the direction is, a cushion if things perhaps don't go right with the economy? >> i would agree with that. again, getting back to the markets pricing in roughly 100 between now and end of the year. three meetings implies one meeting with 50 and the problem is what if you get a good labor report for august and early jeopardy that throws the market's pricing off a little

bit. again, gets back to a little bit too much optimism. probably priced into the market now. valuations are high heading into this cutting cycle to begin with. a lot of crowding in the market. i think you could get a little more volatility between now and the fed meeting in september. >> where does that take you in terms of wanting to lean in your port follows? if you think things are crowded in terms of certain subjects, where else would you go? >> super boring. boring is beautiful. the fed's cutting rates because the labor market is weakening. right? powell said as much. >> they would say cutting rates because inflation gone the way of the target. >> doesn't want to see anymore deterioration in the labor market. shifting focus from inflation, focus on inflation, focused on the labor market. if we get better than expected employment numbers i think it will still allow the fed to cut rates maybe not at the pace the market was expecting, back to areas of the market overly

priced. consumer staples, we all need soap, shampoo and toothpaste. boring but they've done well. inflation report from july, july 10th, that was a clear signal the market could cut rates. consumer staples, utilities, reits, better than info tech communications and more crowded areas of the market. it's worth looking at the portfolio and saying do i have enough, an umbrella in case this volatility in the market and more storms are coming. >> when powell says time for policy to adjust you don't read that as it's time in september? you think there is a possibility that that policy adjustment could take place further in the future? if so, what does that mean for market volatility? >> i still think a rate cut in september almost no matter what. almost have to get unbelievably strong numbers to the down side between now and then for the fed to get up there and say we're good. can hold off for another

meeting. it probably shifts the market expectations for how much rate cuts you get over the next four moss between now and end of the year and how much you might get next year. the market's effectively pricing in 200 bits between now and end of next year. might be too optimistic. >> seems to me once you know the direction and the fed signaled that clearly, the markets are always going to say, well, if we're wrong exactly it's probably going to skew to the down side. or at least that's the direction of overshoot. i just wonder how important that is. we priced in six cuts in january. that was supposed to happen this year. didn't happen. stock market didn't exactly have too much trouble with that. >> so you're 100% correct. the fed i think has to wait for data to come in. it's also a conconsensus. follow the lead of powell. it's a committee. they don't all have to agree. generalizing it. roughly half off doves to more dovish, voters on the committee now. i think remember back to the hiking cycle.

25, 50 and then suddenly 75. so the fed had to catch up to the pace of inflation, and you may see something like that happening on the way down. i just think what drives me nuts is the market thinks its figured it out. we know exactly how many cuts we'll get between now and end of the year. we can all say no one knows for sure. >> yeah. i guess -- do you feel like you have to convince your clients to hold less cash? what's the line that you feel like you have to emphasize most to them? >> the toughest thing, getting away from the winners. right? it's not fun to go to a cocktail party and say hey i bought a consumer staples company that makes shampoo. super fun to say i bought a company that makes the lead be chip used in artificial intelligence. more about, are you still diversified? let your winners run? time to pare that back. i wouldn't hold too much cash.

those rates come down quickly along with the fed. looking at areas of the market that may not have been as much fun to own over the last year, two years plus. >> appreciate you. >> thank you all. coming up, breaking durable goods data. out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. next, latest on the weekend's violence between israel and hezbollah and the wider conflict in the middle east. we speak with an expert. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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multiple reports overt weekend saying pavel durov, arrested in france. the french media reporting today durov was still being detained though the french government hasn't officially confirms his arrest. widely used in ukraine and the

former soviet union. telegram facing scrutiny for enabling cyber criminals and extremist. durov said the service has 900 million monthly active users. israel and hezbollah, exchanging fire this weekend with israel saying warplanes targeted rocket launchers in southern lebanon to stop an attack by hezbollah. hezbollah for its part said it launched roberts and drones aimed military bases in northern israel. all against the back drop of negotiations aiming to get a cease fire between hamas and israel. joining us, senior fellow at the middle east institute. what i'm seeing typically writ sn written neither sides wants it to escalate to the point some of us are worried about. is that true? and what do you attribute that to?

>> well, yes and no. let me try to infuse nuance here. clearly the regional players, the united states certainly very influential, also iran, the patron of hezbollah an hamas and some of the other group is tryi to get israel there. they don't want to see a war. the challenge here is that the local players still have the will to fight. whether it's israel or hamas. it seems that israeli prime minister bibi netanyahu clearly facing a day of reckoning for what happened on october 7th. intelligence, once the guns fall silent, perhaps interested in continuing maybe even broadening this war. from day one hamas, its leader, who's hiding in the tunnels of gaza somewhere, tried to draw in the israeli axis hezbollah with yemen on behalf of its cause. so the local players here perhaps still having a will to fight but the regional players,

the united states, trying to put a lid on things. >> what is the reason for iran's restraint? >> well, iran has always had a preference for indirect warfare using the various militias and groups it sponsors and trains throughout the reach togion to get to israel through 1,000 cuts. not a direct war. a direct war situation with israel probably has a lot to lose including its much launched nuclear program. not because iran being a responsible regional player. iran police officers not to have a direct war with israel at this point. >> so israel probably knows that. would there -- would there be a reason for israel to keep p poking, even the proxies? or poking iran to finally get

them to say enough is enough to take out the nuclear facility? >> what we would say to be in the mind of benjamin netanyahu right now. certainly a rationale part. many analysts focus, and i did just mention myself, the personal interests, political interest of the israeli prime minister in prolonging the war for his own well-being. there is a strategic rationale too. the united states is marshalling in an armada in the mediterranean and the gulf playing defense on behalf of israel right now. the situation on the northern border with hezbollah, according to most israelis, not just the prime minister, is untenable. something has to be done about the balance of power. iran or hezbollah implanting itself there. so, and the north, israel, largely vacant. 60,000-plus israelis have already left. if you are to redress the balance of power against iran starting from maybe south lebanon, this might be an

opportune time to do it if you're the israeli prime minister. >> does that require u.s. involvement? >> very much so. i mean, all of the analysis and intelligence, the united states itself saying in background israel cannot defend itself against some 150,000 rockets that it believes hezbollah has. hezbollah being the most powerful non-state actor in the world. obviously potential that iran might get directly involved, too on behalf of its leading client in the region. so for all of these reasons, the u.s. will continue to play an essential part in the defense of israel. israel depends on that. >> did israel have a heads-up? just before, israeli going to -- wasn't it, for us? how does that happen? i guess we can figure it out in terms of intelligence, but couldn't hezbollah have brought a lot more force, if it chose to do so?

>> absolutely, and we have here a war of narratives, so to speak, in place. israelis would have, it's believed, precisely because of their pre-dawn, preemptive attack, that much of the force of what was coming from hezbollah was blunted. this, by the way, was done with direct american assistance. we know now that american drones were active over the area and providing realtime intelligence to the israelis and how they knew together with their own this is coming. hezbollah would say something different. hezbollah tells you very calculated, precise, meant to target a specific military base south or -- sorry. north of tel aviv, and that they did this precisely because they don't want to drag the region of lebanon into an all-out war. in all cases this was something much less than was feared and the region is collectively breathing a sigh of relief today. >> today.

hopefully that continues for us. appreciate your time. this morning, thanks. >> thank you. >> okay. coming up, breaking economic data. july durable goods orders are next when "squawk box" returns. this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him. let our expertise round out yours. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it!

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we are about just about a minute away from july durable goods, and there's where we stand right now. the dow has continued to move slightly higher with a little upward momentum, while the nasdaq moved down a little bit more. down about -- not a lot happening so far with the s&p up just barely. treasuries this morning. let's see. 3.81. pretty quiet as well. just to further confuse everyone, "maestrmike mike san rick santelli standing by in chicago. got time. i bet in 28 seconds you could say good stuff.

i'm knot going to try to kill te time before the numbers come out. what do you got? >> well, i think what we really need to concentrate on now that the fed is most likely easing the great rollover. will the economy roll over when rollover happens with regards to restocking paper with higher yields. that's the next issue to pay attention to along with the ongoing seasonality data. durable good orders preliminary july hitting the wires, joe. expecting up 5%. double that. we're up 9.9%. big asterisk. in the rear you have mirror minus 6.7. as a stand alohalone, biggest m over month chang going back to the covid-affected april of 2020. if we try to take covid out of the equation and look what the comp would be it would actually go back to july of 2017, down

8%. to give you a different view. now, if you strip out transportation, the number drops rather dramatically. minus 0.2%. actually very close to expectations. and in the rearview mirror, the up 0.4, up last month on its final read demoted to down 0.1%. now, look at non-defense ex-aircraft good orders for capital investment. down 0.1%. a little lighter. we were expecting more of a positive unchanged number. in the rearview mirror a powerful up 0.9. like the negative headline number look at it over a couple months, because it is coming down, but coming down with strength. up 0.5 a good rerevision, slice in half but a good number. and shipments, shift there. a good area to pay attention to, to give you a glimpse of the

future. down 0.4%. down 0.4%. last time down there may, down 0.6. prior to that february down 0.8. last month's up 0.2, now becomes zero. all revisions down. interest rates ticked up on that. my guess, interest rates are going to get much more discriminating on data points, but having said that, these data points for the most part are a little bit better, a little bit better, than we were expecting, but take the revision of comments, a wash. interest rates creeping up? why? spending a lot of time unchanged on the year on 388. sees pre-opening equities holding their gains and, of course, the dollar has been suffering through dropping interest rates and we continue to expect pressure there.

you want to take a long view on the dollar, joe, blur your eyes and look at 100, big psychological area, big technical support. back to you. >> great, rick, thank you. get to steve liesman. steve, i think rick said, "big asterisk." big, big asterisk. kind of mumbling. k caveats to some of those numbers and you're back, bigger and better than ever. >> yeah. i got a tie on. i liked the other outfit without the tie. right? a better thing. here's the thing. the big thing with boeing, negative last quarter, last month, positive this month. rick is right. i want to explain why he's right to point out the 0.4% decline in

non-defense aircraft goods shipments. that's a part that flows into gdp. shipments of these things. that's going to be a negative for gdp for the third quarter. we've been running 2, 2.5, somewhere in there. have had weakness in the ism manufacturing index, seems to be showing up in here. seeing other negativing, new orders for electric, what else? new orders for, shipments more motor vehicles and parts. defense is good. sorry. that did well. but overall, joe, it's a weak number when it comes to also business investment proxy. so let's think about it in context and where the fed is in all this. we had been looking for months and months and months. 30 months, joe. following the inflation reports on the edge of our seats. now we're sort of, like, okay.

inflation is more or less under control. more work to do there. now looking at the other side of the mandate. employment side. a proxy for the growth side of the mandate as well. i think when it comes to the sensitivity of the data, joe, it's going to amount to watching the growth numbers. things like durable goods, employment. we do have an important inflation report this friday. but to me, as it was last month, the income and spending numbers is part of the inflation report will be more important to me, i think, than the actual inflation. joe? >> steve, we were talking actually quite a bit about, as we always do, about what to expect. fed funds, futures, et cetera. do you think that if we get a big surprise, do you think it would be fewer cuts or quicker, bigger cuts? where's the risk? >> well, depends on -- which way the surprise happens. i think the fed -- >> i want to know. i want to know now.

i want you to tell me now which way so it won't be a surprise for me. >> well, you know, joe, i don't want to take any of the drama out of all of this, but i think the fed wants to move gradually. i think it wants to feel its way towards whatever that knew trat rat rate is which it doesn't know. speaking of gradual declines in rates. maybe a pause in there. there are members of the committee, joe, who think we're very far from neutral and have a lot of work to do to get into a position to aid the economy, and there are some on the committee who want to move more slowly, and who like the idea that, hey, i want to keep rates higher, because they think it's ultimately healthier for the economy to have higher rates rather than low rates distorted, say, investment decisions over the course of the past several years. there are members like that. what's interesting, joe? ever been in a rock 'n' roll band, joe? >> i sang "25 to 6 or 4" last

thing i did, off the stage. >> the fed is, like, a rock 'n' roll band. joe, you know why? always argue about tempo. what's the right speed? so, you know, the fed will be no different. they're going to argue over speed. the thing i said i think would support at 7:00, that's a normal kind of situation. we should be arguing over speed. how fast to get there? there's uncertainty but a lack now, joe, of urgency. >> i'm embarrassed to admit that. and you probably have done this. embarrassed to say i had a les paul that i was playing and had a marbarrel sitting there. >> all the cool kids, joe. >> embarrassed to say that -- i couldn't even smoke the thing, sort of --

>> what you should be embarrassed about, joe, probably sold that les paul and what it might be worth now. >> i know. i did. one of those beautiful sun burst les pauls if i was just -- >> i'm sure. i'm sure. >> assuming it was a karaoke band months ago. >> with the cigar rolling. yeah. all right. a funny marlborough. see ya, steve. up next, debate with two ex chairs of the president's council of economic advisers. kevin hassett and jason furman to talk about emerging ideas from the trump and harris caais. ay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. you get comfortable being uncomfortable. ♪♪ the enemy is always adapting... deepfake: hey handsome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] ...always iterating.

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enroll over the phone. it's that easy! call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. welcome back to "squawk box." futures right now steady. s&p 500 holding on to last week's gains. sits about half a percent, a little more than that, from a record high. dow indicated higher by 30 and nasdaq slightly softer indicated lower by 45 points at this

point, joe. when it comes to the u.s. economy, both donald trump and kamala harris have embraced ideas of government intervention, but the two presidential candidates have vastly different ideas what that would look like in the real world. kevin hassett, under trt, distinguished vitt ig the fellow at the hoover institution and jason furman, under former president obama and har vvardaw.

no one had to prompt you. you are, after all, trained in economics. it wasn't that big of a leap for you to make that statement. >> yeah. so -- thanks for picking on me, as always, joe. >> i want to get that -- get to hassett. get to mr. tariff, kevin, and mr. never cut entitlements kevin hassett. >> did i like the proposals she had about price gouging, no? do we know the details of it? we don't really know them, but some of what's trickling out suggest this might be more like the things that states do, which i think are mistaken but relatively small inconsequential mistakes not the kind some people described it as. for me when i 45erheard her convention speech i didn't hear her mention there, optimism about america, opportunity. those are the things she cares

about much more deeply than this. this bit of a misfire of a proposal. >> i promise i'll get to kevin hassett. i promise, but is there a thread, jason, consistently running through the democratic party of populism that just makes it incumbent upon, i guess, people running for office, people in office, to bash corporations? at the same time that president biden or kamala harris pointed out we came back from the pandemic better than anywhere else and that, you know, i've created 50 million jobs. you know it's the private sector that's doing these things. it's our vibrant private sector economy. maybe in partnership sometimes with government. maybe with guardrails, but why the corporate bashing? do you agree with it all the time? is it always about corporate greed? all of our problems? >> too much populism in both political parties right now. too little recognition that as

you just said, you know, it's the businesses that create the jobs. the businesses that are raising real wages and the government needs to help create the conditions to contribute to that, but, again, there's a big difference. you're going to get to tariffs in a moment. some of the populism we hear on the democratic side is populism-light. targeted tariffs. very targeted price gouging proposal. on the other side, 10% tariffs on every single country in the world. every bit of vegetable, fruit from another country. a toy you buy all going up in price. a difference in scale how the populism is implemented by these two candidates. >> okay, kevin. your turn. this is not your father or grandfather's conservatism. i don't know what it is sometimes we hear from donald trump. whether -- former president

trump. whether it's, you know, suggesting that the president should have a vote on the fed's open market? you know, the tariffs -- there are some bonkers ideas that come out of that side at this point that you probably have trouble defending? >> oh, i mean, if you have a specific one you want to talk about. >> okay. 20% -- tariffs -- not targeted tariffs. tariffs across the board on anything? >> well, the headline tariff policy for president trump is reciprocal tariff act and what he wants to do is immediately set the tariff at the u.s. equal to the tariff that other countries charge us, and i'll send steve liesman a chart. i know he loves charts. that shows the tariff we charge on other guys and the tariff they charge on us. our best trading partner it's probably europeans charging

double the average tariff that the u.s. does and that really upsets president trump. i expect next year he would pass sml something called the reciprocal tariff act in reconciliation and probably induce other countries around the world to reduce to our rate. if they didn't, probably that's going to be, it will go up. thing is a lot of countries, like india, which are like 20% above us, and so i guess the question is how high does our tariff go on guys like that? i think the cap would probably be 10%. >> jason, probably tired of -- maybe you like the capital gains highest ever, 45% or unrealized capital gains. you must have things that -- tell kevin what is the most heinous suggestions you've heard from the other side for their economic -- you got to be, at this point, getting a little

defensive to have to answer -- so much bad policy coming from the left. got to be defensive. give it right back to kevin hassett. >> i don't think it's so much bad policy from the left. not getting into details. broad strokes, i agree. it the problem with tariffs is, you can do this unilaterally. the president has the authority to raise tariffs to 10%. i haven't heard him say it's reciprocal. heard him say 10% possibly 20% on every single country in the world. >> that's a platform. it's in the platform. >> and there's a big difference. price gouging talked about, you need 60 votes in the senate. a fun thing to talk about on the campaign. just not going to happen. these tariffs are going to happen. when it comes to the fed i think that's an even bigger risk, but he probably won't be able to do what he wants to do the fed. i don't think he would succeed, but if he did, that would be devastating to the most important and effective

institution we have in our k economy. one he has absolute contempt for. >> kevin? >> okay. so we'll talk a little bit about trump then let me talk about some of vice president harris' proposals. >> okay. all right. i know that -- jason doesn't want to do that, but go ahead. >> yeah. you know, so joe, with the economy growing pretty good, with inflation at, like, 1.8%, president trump is elected, before inaugurated the fed starts hiking rates. he viewed that as a political move by a fed chair who became treasury secretary foree biden d old friend with janet yellen, and from the beginning something he speaks his mind when he's on those things, but you might also recall there was a day in the trump administration where after studying it and thinking about it president trump could read he

wasn't going to fire jay powell. i think i remember i went out, talked about it on tv and the market went up a lot. flying back and said kevin got to put you on tv more. so he understands fed policy. the thing i want to say about vice president to do about vice president harris is i want to start by saying for me, the headline for markets is uncertainty. and so, if you look at my friend, dave mccormick, running for senate in pennsylvania, he's got a youtube compilation of things that she's said in the past, which has gotten zillions of views that are radically different from the things she's saying now like, ban fracking, ban offshore drilling, all that stuff, and so i think people should look at that youtube video and think, is that what she really thinks? or is what she doing now perhaps what doing joe biden did which is running toward the middle before they get elected and then do whatever they want? she calls for the end of the filibuster so we can pass the green new deal.

there's a statement where she's saying those things. if you look at the things she does say she's going to do, it's striking, the capital gains rate, a taxation on unrealized capital gains. i can't imagine that jason would support that, but the worst thing for me, which hasn't received any press, is that the estate tax goes to 65%, and this is something their campaign has confirmed, but they also want to tax unrealized capital gains in the estate, which is 44.6% so their estate tax proposal is to tax them 109.6%. they're calling for a bigger than 100% tax on estates, and i know jason wouldn't support that either, but i guess what i think of, and jason and i have endeavored to stay on the substance as much as we can, that if they're proposing a bigger than 100% tax, then it's like we need to understand -- have some sympathy that they've been running a campaign for a few weeks, and usually, when you're running a campaign, jason's been on campaigns, wesley clark, i think you were on his campaign a long time ago,

if i remember right, jason, that you spend months developing policies, and they're sort of having to do it on the fly and it's really quite visible in the things like a greater than 100% tax rate proposal, which i can't imagine they really believe that. but therefore, for me, the headline is uncertainty. and she as left-wing as the statements that she makes? not statements we make about her. it's things that dave mccormick has just compiled, and then the second thing is, what are they actually going to do? they're trying to signal it now, but even then, there's errors and flaws in what they're proposing. >> there's no estate tax over 100%. that's nonsense. that's not a proposal. also, all of this has to pass through congress, so you can just calm down about all of it and not worry too much. the real contrast here on taxes is that we have to make some tough choices. and i'd like taxes to be zero on everything, but that would mean a huge deficit, would mean we

couldn't fund the government that we need, and she has a budget where she's spelled out those tough choices. you may or may not like them. president trump hasn't spelled out any of them with one exception, which is he says he wants to raise taxes on the middle class in order to pay for the tax cuts for high-income and corporations. he talked about replacing the income tax with tariffs, and then the across the board tariff proposal is like a small version of that. heritage people have been out there pushing that and defending that. and that's a real big difference. it's oare taxes and tariffs goig to go up on moderate income and middle income people? or are taxes going to go up on high-income people? i'd much rather do the latter than do the former. and we have to make some sort of tough choice. >> kevin, i'd like to let you have the last word. they tell me we've got to go, but jason, as long as promise me it will take 60 votes and

promise me that the next supreme court ruling won't be, like, i don't know, 13-2 after she gets in. i'd like to know those two things. can you promise me those? >> pretty sure the supreme court is not going to be 13-2, joe. you can just relax, sleep well, enjoy your life. >> what about -- are you sure you're going to need 60 votes if there's no filibuster? >> you're going to need 50 for fiscal actions and 60 for everything else. >> i hope so. they're threatening that too and she's got chuck on her side. thank you, both, kevin and jason. it's fun. i like that -- something about that stairway to heaven behind you. >> hey, joe, you said -- i'm more of a strateocaster guy. >> and you can play "stairway to heaven" for jason. see you guys later. thank you. all right, coming up, we'll get you caught up on some of the

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welcome back. little more than half an hour until the opening bell on wall

street this monday morning. frank holland joins us now with a look at some of the morning's top premarket movers. >> good morning, leslie. let's start with nike. shares are down in the premarket following a new note from stifel saying the sportswear giant is losing ground in the battle for back-to-school shares. according to stifel data, nike, including the jordan brand, the most popular pick at about 61% of major retailers. however, that's a steep drop from a year ago. the channel checks say new balance is gaining momentum overall and adidas is becoming more popular with women. on and hoka gaining with younger buyers. nike is facing increased competition in china. shares are down more than 20% year to date. we have some c-suite news. solaredge shares moving higher as the ceo announces he's stepping down. shares are up more than 6%. he will remain on the board and be part of the search for a new ceo. shares are negative year to date, down more than 60%, but as

you can see right here on the chart, they rallied in recent days with fed rate cuts being one factor for the upside move. also, looking at pinduoduo. they're plummeting in the premarket, down almost 19%, following earnings, again, the chinese online retailer missed revenue estimates but did beat when it comes to operating income. this is the parent company of temu. they missed revenue expectations. management commentary weighing on the stock. executives said they would accept a short-term hit on profitability. they also plan to see lower revenues because of increased competition. shares down 19% right now. back over to you, leslie. >> big move there. thank you, frank. we're not going to do the babe ruth story? did he really call it? >> that's the question. this babe ruth jersey where he called his shot.

$40 million-p. >> he was pointing at the cubs dugo dugout. >> or the pitcher. but someone's willing to put down $40 million on a 92-year-old jersey. >> let's look at the futures and toss it over to "squawk on the street." i'll update you on where the futures are on that show. anyway, thank you both. join us tomorrow. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber alongside jim cramer. we are live from post nine at the new york stock exchange. carl has the morning off. look at that. joe was preparing you for this moment. >> yeah, and i like that. >> we are going to look at those futures. you can see they haven't changed very much from when joe just did them 30 seconds ago. >> incredible. >> it's incredible. let's get to our road map. that's also incredible.