cnbc.com/insidewealth. you can read all about how the wealthy are making spending and investing their money, guys. >> fascinating. up innext up, how many made millions in tim toc. thank you for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. all right, guys. thanks so much. i'm scott wapner at post 9. this make-or-break hour begins with a road to stocks and how much are hanging on the nvidia questions. it's the key question. some argue so much good news priced into this market. in the meantime take a look at the scorecard. a mixed picture for the majors today, although we're green. dow is trying to hang on. anything in the positive is going to be a new record. financials, staples, they're leading the market. the aforementioned nvidia is higher, and that is ahead of

that key report tomorrow, up about 1 .65%. several other caps are modemodesaestly lower. let's ask how much is riding on nvidia? good to see you. >> good to see you. >> are we as reliant on nvidia and these names as we once were? >>dy definition, no, because a lot of the other markets are picking up some of the slack. this isn't the most important earnings report ever. the last nvidia report and maybe the one before that were crucially important. i don't think there's any discussion about demand not equally supply, and i don't think there's any expectation that the company is going to have negative commentary about one quarter forward or two quarters forward.

>> why is this less important than other times? >> i think there was nervousness or the amount of demand out there to justify moving the stock right now. just from anecdotal conversations around the street, i just got the impression people are more comfortable, which opens up the likelihood of further downside if somebody does miss. people are uncomfortable if demand is there. it's not as uncertain as it might have been one or two quarters ago. >> i want you to hear what rick told me a while ago. how much good news is already in these names and, therefore, what we should expect on the other side of these results. listen to rieder. >> i think the golden age of watching this incredible tech sector promote topline revenue growth and free earnings growth and free cash flow growth, i think we're done with that. by the way, i think they're still good numbers, but i think you've priced in an awful lot at this point.

it's r okay though. >> that's rick rieder. just okay. is just okay good enough from where the stocks are trading from a valuation standpoint? >> probably not. listen, i'm not going to disagree. rick is usually right, and he's probably right there, but at the end of the day, the demand for these chips, obviously there's a transition issue with blackwell and go get dan ives if you want the details, but there's an issue with the transition, and i believe that's a couple quarters forward. from a broad market standpoint, there are other things going on post what happened with japan, some of the hotel stocks like expedia, booking, gm, ford, some of the card companies like american express, all the warehouse companies, walmart, target, costco. there's a lot going on in the market that's not just mega cap tech. from a waiting standpoint,

obviously these are crucial names, obviously. for those of us who don't traffic in cap tech, there's a lot of other things you can do. >> you're making a case for the broadening. >> sure. mind you, i was making a case for the broadening before the broadening happened. >> yes, in fairness, you have. and before the retail sales report came out, before walmart's earnings came out and some of these other retail names that were actually decrepit, you cautioned us about being too negative on the consumer. >> sure. >> so you still maintain that. >> oh, sure. jobless sclams as i used to tell clients and investors now, you don't need a phd just watch jobless claims. they jumped up. they're back down. the credit card data that comes out of some of the banks,cy group, barclays, they've done a good job of aggregating their spend cards. but at the end of the day, the

job market has been holding up. consumer confidence is not terrible. we heard from walmart, which does 600-plus billion dollars in revenue a year. obviously target, which is a little idiosyncratic, but had good things to say. i don't worry about the consumer in general. again, we know the consumer is under a little bit of stress, but income growth has been fine. the job market has been holding up. and the obsession rumor has been false for a year and a half, and i don't know why it's going to change tomorrow. >> when i tell you real estate is leading over a month, staples, third, does that make you feel great about the market? when you do have yields coming down, they become more attractive because of the yield they offer. >> yeah. what i would say, first of all, i'm not positive utilities are a defensive play.

obviously there's a yield play here. but still there's nothing defensive about that idea. about real estate, listen, if viewers had not looked, go take a look at the charts of sl green, bxp as well, i believe. these stocks are well off their lows with the idea that the worst of the new york city real estate and office collapse is behind us, and i think that's based on their quarterinly earnings. there are other things going on. does it make me worried about the market that those are the names leading? no. at the end of the daysing, mega cap has so much waiting. we are, until that math changes, we are at their -- >> it's never going to change. it's not going to change any time soon. these stocks have such a heavy weighting within the s&p so at the index level they remain critically important. the way that the s&p goes, you

know, as so goes the s&p or as goes the s&p, so goes these mega tech caps. >> my point -- solace doesn't do -- as i said, we don't do any mega cap techs. we've got to come up with ideas. >> what's the idea? what have you come up with recently. to you that says, you know what? this finally looks fine to me. >> an idea -- a riff off of the consumer, if you will. the idea that streaming was here, was going to dominate and that was going to be the end of it, and that's proven not to be the case for some time. so when you look at things the consumer could do based off of that, when is it shifting when streaming isn't the only place for movies to go and for consumer spend to go. there are areas that are offshoots of that idea that are still attractive to us.

also sticking with the consumer theme for a while, it's not all planes, it's not all trains, it's not all automobiles. there's other ways -- i can't get very specific b there's other ways for consumers to spend money and travel that still look attractive to us. >> okay. let's bring in shannon and greg branch. both are cnbc contributors, and it's nice to see you both. greg, i'll begin with you. judging from your notes, you still remain, i guess, leaning a little more negative from center. is that fair? >> i think so. i think rick's right and dan's right. i just don't know if that scenario is likely. that scenario is the fed decides to do something preventive, not

recuperative because there's no reason right now based on some of the things dhan just said that they need to cut rates. they are eager to, but we haven't seen any cracks in the economy. we've got gdp growth straight quarters. we've seen the largest epf growth we've seen since 2022 -- 20121, 2 2021, excuse me. even after revisions there are 174,000 jobs a month. 100,000 is seen as the neutral rate. if the fed is going to do something preventive and start cutting rates in september, this will likely continue to be a rotation. as loser monetary policy without a driving downturn undoubtedly and disproportionately performs with smaller cyclical stocks in

which case i would have to remain neutral. >> well, what if they're cutting not because they have to but because their current rate makes no sense relative to where inflation is? that's the debate based on what you're suggesting and the kind of conversation i had yesterday with ed yardeni who argued something similar to your point, no reason to really cut now. look at the economy. but that misses the point. their rate makes no sense. >> i think it depends on what mandate you're looking at, scott. after you from all accounts missed one of your mandates for 3 1/2 years where we've had above trend inflation and conversely we've only had employment at the 4.3% level for two months and you don't have any cracks in the economy, i

don't think that the feds anywhere in their mandate does it exist to say we're going to cut rates because we can. i think that the danger here is that we see a reaction sell rag and inflation. remember, we just saw one in the first quarter, so much so that it had misch shoal bowman talking openly about rate hikes still being on the table as recently as june. i think what the danger is here and what they'll be cautious about, and the next week or two is going to be critically important, is that they don't do it too fast and in advance of when they need to. >> shannon, how does this all factor into your current view of the market? >> well, i think the one thing you make a great point, scott, is that we're thinking about rate cuts in terms of what the traditional narrative has been. as a reminder, we haven't had a soft landing for 30 years, and, therefore, it is really

important that we think about what could potentially be the outcome of some of the moves today. you know, scott, we've but out there in the broadening camp more so than ours and that's hurt us. if you look at the delta with the earnings growth of the mag 7 andeverything else in the s&p, that delta is starting to shrink. when you think about the stocks, yes, they're important at the earnings level. we don't want the earnings to falloff the cliff because that will impact the index. however, we think there's opportunity in energy and financials and indusindustrials others that are defensive earlier in the show? there's a lot of growth within that sector. i think there are opportunities here. whether or not depending on the path really, you know, you can

nail the path for the fed. i don't think that's as relevant today as it was maybe six months ago. >> i hear your point. there are utilities that are viewed offensively like dan said because of what they mean for powering the ai revolution or health care because the lilies of the world are transforming to the new world of gl p.1s. i again all that, but what's your response? >> i agree to what shannon had to say. i also think it's important to remember to age myself a little here. you may recall -- >> why are you aging me with you? >> because we're older. we're of advanced age, my friend. >> speak for yourself. >> just because we moisturize -- there was a point in time in the 2010s when utilities and con consumer staples were leading for a time and we wondered if that was good for the market and it led to nothing. i imagine this will be roughly

the same. i agree with shannon there's a lot going on with utilities and health care that aren't exactly defensive. i disagree with almost everything greg had to say. well put and an articulate view of the barish narrative if you will. the idea is the fed does not want to cut but the time has come to cut. >> the time has come. focusing on the negative economic outcomes that generate in rate cuts is not correct right now. the idea is, as scott mentioned, is the rate correct for the current economy, and the answer is it has not. we have to put aside our own political biases. i'm not talking about you, greg. you put aside your own political

buy as's and you say, okay, you tell me the fed rates are coming down, whether it's two or four or six months. it doesn't matter. do i dial up my risk portfolio or dial down? do i tilt in favor of lower interest rates like the mortgage servicer companies or diet in this direction? those are the debates we should be having, not whether or not they're going to cut rates for the right reason or the wrong reason. they're telling us more or less what do i do with my portfolio as a suresult. >> i think that's a great point. greg, how do you respond? >> that's not necessarily my opinion, but i don't disagree. >> you've been wondering what can go wrong for the last 18. that's part of our -- i don't know if you want to say discourse, but we've had debates, and your repeated points, quite frankly, are what could go wrong now, what could

go wrong three months from now, what could go wrong six, nine, 12, 15 months from now. here we are 18 months later and we've got the dow at another record high and anything positive today is going to extend that. i hear you making argument in some respects that, well, michelle bowman, as recently as june or july, was still talking about cuts. it's clear you're about to be voted off bowman island because the fed chair himself has made it clear the time has come. hasn't the time come for you to be more constructive on the market? >> not yet, scott. not yet. i think moving from bearish to neutral is a constructive move. i think highlighting areas where we've increased exposure as far back as december as a constructive move, i think it would be difficult to say i haven't been more constructive over the last eight months, but i think it's important that if the entire market thinks a rate

cut is coming, we've all decided that the fed has decided, i think they've stopped short of it, quite frankly. i want to see two more weeks of data. i don't think that's unreasonable. >> sorry to interrupt. they're never going to say, with oar going to cut it by 50 guy sis points in september. that's not what they say. i know you read the speeches and the minutes. jay powell has come as close to any fed member has come to saying, we're cutting at the next fed meeting. >> i got you. i got you. i heard all that as well. what gives me pause is i think the next two weeks of data will have something to say about that. i think the jobless claims will have something to say and pcp and ucm on the 3rd. i do agree they're now employed on the employment and whether or not they're close to full employment is in the cards.

they state that there is. they haven't put a time frame on it. that leaves the possibility for it to be open. >> shan, nvidia tomorrow, we started out the program by debating how important this really is at the current time. we have heard on this broadly, rick rieder spoke. what can you really expect from revenue growth here forward that we don't already know? >> well, you and i talked about this with joe last week on "halftime," scott. right now i think the ai trade is incredibly narrow and that's why you've seen the continued resilience. for instance, when inindividually sold off, you saw this massive amount of investor interest and come back in and push that stock higher once again. so i think that the challenge here is that only about 5% of

corporations in the u.s. are utilizing ai right now, and so, you know, it's really about how much of the hyperscale letter is going to continue to purchase, how much are they going to continue to create capex. and if you look over the next couple of quarters, scott, they're not giving any indication they intend to pull that back. this is the tip of the sphere for ai. there's enough spending going into ai that people are not worried about that potential drop off the cliff in terms of demand. so it's going to be increasingly a conversation about valuation and the next product down the line. i think 2025 is where you really start to see that potential competition for nvidia. they really are sitting in a position where that demand is likely to continue and the competitors aren't quite there to be able to unseat them in a meaningful way. >> if nothing else, dan, something disappointing tomorrow. even though i don't think it's

anticipated at all or expected. maybe it shouldn't be expected. could reintroduce volatility in this market in the way we had this outlier three weeks ago where we had the vic spike and then we sort of calmed down. we have 76 days from the election or a little less. do we expect volatility between now and then and is nvidia something that reintroduces it? >> i would separate it. in the case of nvidia, it's broader than that. listen, no one expected anything negative to come out, although, admittedly nobody ever expected that. >> it's true. it's true. you've been proven to be foolish to think that that's the point. >> there was a story from sergey brin where he said he would rather go bankrupt than fall

behind in this race. for the next couple of quarters, that demand is going to be there. if for some reason it's not, why it's different, nvidia is the knew clue us, if you will. it's not just nvidia. it's eaton, vistra, all the ancillary plays that go into building out what is becoming the ai ecosystem if you will. nvidia at the center of it, they were to say, all right, demand is slowing, it doesn't mean everything is imploding. when you look back to 2000, stocks stopped going up and then there was a number after where the stocks stopped going up. we have not seen even a slowdown as of yet, so investors of all stripes, whether you're in mega cap tech or not, given how it's been for the market, to shannon's point and my point, i'll reiterate, we haven't seen

it yet. >> we'll make that the last word. shannon, thank you. greg branch, thank you. and dan greenhaus, thank you. kate rooney. >> we're going to look at netflix to close, rising at 2% after evercore says it sees more upside. the previous firm says netflix is in a historically sound position when it comes to financials, competition, and other fundamentals. on the other side of this, cava is down. they did sell off some of their shares according to new s.e.c. filing. if you zoom out, that stock is still up 40% so far this month. >> kate rooney just getting started. coming up, erin brown, why investors should wait to buy any stocks. you're watching "closing bell"

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that's 1-800-217-3217. welcome back. stocks hovering around the flat line. the dow and s&p trying to close at record highs. any close for the dow will be a record close. s&p has got a lot of work to do. we look ahead to tomorrow's key earnings record from nvidia, the report it has on the overall market. our next guest says it's time to, quote, conserve firepower, wait to buy any dips. erin browne. good to see you. welcome back. >> thanks for having me. >> i hope you've had a nice summer. why should you wait if this market has a little bit of an upset. that would have been a mistake if you would have done so on august 5th. >> yeah, and to be fair, we've been optimistic on equities and

have been long, but we think now is the time to step back. my motto is to buy now and sell in september. we have two markets coming into fruition, that being the first fed cut, which we think will happen in september, as well as the u.s. election, which we think both will add to the volatility of the market. i think the market has gotten a little ahead of itself in the earlies of pace for the fed cuts especially over the next couple of quarters. while i do believe the fed is likely to cut the september, some of the optimism about them going 50 as opposed to 25 came after the last payroll print. i think you're going to see a reversal. some of the anomalies you saw hit last month are going to be worked out, and you'll see more of a normal payroll print in the upcoming print. that will take the optimism out of the market for september.

i think that's going to add a little bit. i think also as we come closer to the election and a democratic sweep becomes more, you know, in play, i think that also is going to focus the markets on the potential implications of what it might do for corporate taxes and personal income taxes, all of which i think will add volatility over the next couple of months. >> so there's a lot there. first off on the point you make about the fed, isn't the pace at this point less important than the trend itself? >> absolutely over the medium term. that's why i wouldn't be a seller over the medium term. i do think the market reacts to the pricing at hand and little changes in the market can have an outsized impact on how stocks trade. so right now if the market is trading a higher probability of a 50-basis point cut or a faster pace of cuts and then it gets

ratcheted back, that is going to have an impact on how stocks trade. >> because you think bonds are going to reprice and the yields as you said -- let's say the two-year yield goes up because the pace is going to be slower than some hat originally accepted and that is going to have an impact on equities. >> right, exactly. that will add volatility to equities. it will add -- take some of the froth out of the equity market that's occurred over the last month, and i think all of that is going to be a hiccup on what is still an upper trajectory on stocks. it's not a you turn on stocks, but it is going to be a hiccup for the markets. >> it does lead to the controversial topic in and of itself of essentially selling the first rate cut even though you're constructive about the trend and longer term about the stocks is selling the first move

when so many for so long since 2009 have been conditioned, don't fight the fed. >> right. look. that's why i'm saying this is a temporary strategy. i don't think this is a long-term strategy. i think with that and the election, there's a lot of skepticism and uncertainty right now. you heard it from the second earnings call with a lot of corporate earnings outside of ai, stalling capex investment until after the election. there's a lot of uncertainty about what the policy is going to look like after the election, and i think you are going to have a little bit of a lull in terms of, you know, activity data into november, which is going to cause, i think, the markets to pull back a little bit. to me that's an opportunity to buy, to get in at better levels, but i do think that you should expect some level of volatility over the next couple of months, and it's appropriate in that environment to either take a

step back, lighten your equity exposure, or deploy -- put strategies or at least some type of options strategies to protect your downside. >> we look ahead to nvidia obviously with great anticipation, rick rieder suggesting that much many of the good news is already priced in, nvidia included. do you share in that view? >> nvidia is up over 50% year to date. it's hard to say there's not a lot of optimism priced into the market tomorrow. that said, if you look at broader ai names leveraged to the ai theme, they're still down 10%. and the praising even on a valuation basis isn't expensive relative to its five-year average. so while certainly there's a lot of optimiss priced in, i think they can surprise the market to the upside, which may lift nvidia, but more broadly, lift

the ai names outside of nvidia. to me the capex investment hasn't stopped, and it's going to to accelerate into next year. >> forgive me. i've got to leave it there. i do have breaking news i need to get to. we'll talk to you soon. to alex sherman as we're getting some news out of the nfl regarding the imminent vote on private equity investing here. this is a juicy detail you've reported on. can you tell us what you know? >> part of the vote, i'm told -- remember, the nfl has never allowed private equity ownership before. they're really setting the rules. one of the terms would be to take a percentage of the so-called carry, that's the profits that a private equity firm makes when they have a transaction and sell an ownership stake for its own return. the nfl wants a piece of that. we don't know exactly the

percentage of the carry that the nfl would like, but no other league does this as an across-the-board rule as you'll remember the major league baseball, nba, nhl, all allow up to a 30% ownership stake. the nfl for the first time now considering up to a 10% ownership stake in addition to the smaller ownership stake it now may for some firms take a piece of the profit for the nfl, which you could interpret in one of two ways. it's smart, it's an opportunity for the nfl to take more money, or if you're more cynical, they're acting as the great vampire squid here, kind of grabbing its tentacle anywhere where it can make more money as the league has done in so many different ways before. >> i mean i would look at it a couple of ways. number one, this is the nfl flexing the muscle that it has

in a way that other leagues can't because they don't have the same juice so to speak as the nfl does, and also that private equity wants into this pie so badly that they would be potentially willing to do this. >> look, there's consternation, no question about it. even some of the owners who prefer more of a free market approach here, but you're absolutely right. the nfl has already limited the amount of private equity firms that it's going to allow in the door to a number less than 10 to begin with, so we're seeing this sort of incremental steps here by the league that's now interested in allowing private equity ownership because the valuations have gotten so high, it allows for a liquidity event for some of the owners who don't want to sell the full team. the league itself duct want full team transactions. they're very much of the mind-set they want generational

ownership where they have long-term decision-making, not long-term profit. they're putting in these rules or at least trying to to benefit the league for the long term and making it harder for the private equity firms who are still undoubtedly going to have in interest in buying stakes in these teams. >> i want you to stay with me and i want to bring in our sports reporter michael azainian. your reaction to this news that alex is talking about. >> first of all as alex has touched on, none of the other leagues are as strong as the nfl. private equity needs the nfl more than the nfl needs private equity. the nfl does not need more capital. the nba, ma i superior league baseball, major league soccer, they were all in greater need of capital than the nfl. dial corp, the pe firm, does have a carry agreement with the

nba, so this would be a little similar to that, but at the end of the day, if any of these pe firms object to what the nfl wants, i have no doubt the nfl could substitute a different pe firm. >> and, michael, the greater point as we were discussing with alex is that the nfl is holding all the cards here, and it's fleck flexing a degrey of muscle that it has that the other leagues that simply don't. >> absolutely. nfl is the most profitable sports league in the world. it's almost impossible to lose money. none of the teams lost money last year. the nfl is growing its revenues in the high single digits. it's going to continue to do so with with its massive tv contracts, which, oh, by the way, it can opt out of in six years. it's streamed, which is different. last year the nfl was 93 of the

most watched 100 programs in this country. think about that in the dominance of the sports world. >> we know that. alex, we know that pe money is going to be capped at 10% initially. other leagues allow maybe up to 30. do we know whether that number will increase and if so when? >> yeah, look, i think even about part of this discussion on the percentage of carry is part of a long pathway where the nfl wants to start looking at private equity investment, but they want to take it slow because they can. to michael's point, the reason why the nfl has not allowed private equity investment up to this point is they haven't had to. i believe that nfl -- roger goodell has probably said he would be open toward increasing that higher over time, but

there's just not a particular urgency to do so. you might as well start small, see how this goes, anticipate any particular challenges or things the league doesn't like, and try to put in the rules early that benefit the nfl in as many different ways as possible. >> it speaks, michael, to what you do best. you're known as the guru of sports team valuations, so you better than most know what predig management, if you want to use that word, potential owners have been in. the fact that valuations continue to increase exponentially, you have $6 billion just paid for the commanders by josh harris and his team, and there's only one way that these things go, and that is generally rupp. >> yeah. what a horrible business to be in, right? valuations are going so high, we just don't know how many people can afford to buy them. but to your point, this money will be used generally tofund the limited partner portion of

the purchase of teams. so to your example, the commanders sell for $6 billion. you have limited partnered funding on that, the need of about $3.2 billion, assuming now you use the max of $1.4 billion of debt. if you look at the numbers here, the money is about $500 million per team it can be capped at. that would go a long way in helping to expedite the sale of a $6 billion franchise. the other part of this is some of this money will be used by team owners to renovate and improve their stadiums because the money that comes in from luxury suites, hospitality at the stadium, they do not have to share that with other members of the nfl like they do with gate receipts. that's another reason why the team owners would like to get some of this private equity money into the nfl. >> because you've been on the ground floor of this, michael,

are you at all surprised at how consistently and how largely they've grown? we're looking at some pirps right now, presumably of the owners at the hotel. i would assume it's in minneapolis where this special vote is taking place. there's jerry jones, of course, and stephen jones, i believe, on the cowboys. the krafts, the kroenkes as well of the rams. this vote appears to be imminent. there's commissioner goodell as you obviously see him too. are you surprised at the increase? >> years ago i was. not anymore. years ago in the '90s i ask a valuation expert can these values continue to go up the way they've been going up?

they said, no, no, no, it's impossible because there's no way the tv money is going to go up like it has been in the late '80s. so i think about that for a second. what you're dealinging with here is almost a thing. you have the most revenue. your revenue is growing. you're all profitable. by the way, thanks to collective bargaining, you're capping what you pay the players at 49% of revenue. i mean, this is a license to print money. >> scott, let me point out on that back end of that, part of the reason we're not seeing full team sales bee beyond this these are generational assets that passed down from one family to the next is because tv rates are going up and there's an out clause at the end of the 200028, '29 season there's a

generationization that the amount of money coming in is only going to go up two to three times more than what the nfl is already making. it almost got triple the valuation of its previous media rights deal, so the idea that there's yet another one of these media rights negotiations coming up in four years is leaving a lot of owners to assume their valuations are just going to continue to increase. >> guys, we'll leave it there. i appreciate you surrounding this story for me. i encourage everybody go read alex's piece on cnbc.com so you get another death. michael, it's great to welcome you as well. and you have some exciting news. this is a good scene setter for all of that. guys, thank you very much. by the way, don't mis-c nbc and the boardroom game plan. it brings together investors and

others. you can scan the qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/register, and please do. up next, we're tracking the latest. kate rooney is back. >> electric carmaker is driving to a record high. this one's an ai. we're going to bring you all of those details coming up next. ♪ music ♪ ♪ unnecessary action hero! ♪ ♪ unnecessary. ♪

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the trend of what he's calling an ultimate buying. app then super microg getting ht by 00 denburg, accusing the ai server maker of, quote, accounting manipulation. shares of super micro down about 2%. but it nearly doubled so far this year, scott. >> appreciate it. still ahead, eli lilly revealing some new plansor f its own weight loss drug. all the details coming up. "closing bell" is coming right back. introducing maximo, our new ai-enabled solar robot, designed and built in america. with max on the team, aes is transforming how solar farms are constructed. what was once strenuous is now faster. safer. smarter. at aes, we designed max with powerful features

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coming up next, nordstrom reporting in overtime. we will run you through what to watch for fr tseomho numbers. much more inside the market zone next.

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with the power of ai. so this is pickleball? it's basically tennis for babies, but for adults. it should be called wiffle tennis. pickle! yeah, aw! whoo! ♪♪ these guys are intense. we got nothing to worry about. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. we're now to the "closing bell" market zone. mark santoli here to break down the market of the day, and breaking down shares of eli lilly and hims and hers.

mike santoli, you first. anything positive will be a record close, a new one for the dow. but this very much has the flavg of let's see what happens with nvidia tomorrow and then we'll see what we want to do. >> it seems like the market broadly speaking waiting for permission. since the beginning of last week every single day the s&p has closed within half a percent of 5600. i mean, so the all-time high is about 1% up from where we are right now. and whether, you know, it's the catalyst or it gets out of the way or confirms the long-term story or not, it's not been a consistent pattern. obviously it would help the story somewhat. meantime, you know, it feels as if we're figuring out just how much of the ideal soft landing scenario we've already taken credit for. >> erin browne makes the point, too, the market may get upset by the pace that the fed goes by,

and it may be at least initially more important than the trend itself because a slower pace could mean more elevated yields and thus a little more upset in equities. >> in the near-term i could see that in a reflex. it's mainly because the response of the market on friday implied that this is right on time. it's not too late, it's not too early. it's perfect. it's more likely that people worry that it's too late, right? so it's more likely that, you know, the two-year yield is so far below the fed funds, it's the market's way of saying get on with it. so if they want to be slow and incremental about it, maybe it's going to feel as if they're allowing themselves to fall further behind. on the other hand, historically you don't want them to have this urgent slash and burn rate-cutting campaign because usually it means they're scrambling to deal with a bad economy. >> sure. but you don't want them to boo too late. that's the fine line. >> that's the delicate part.

the soft landing can be the baseline premise of everybody, but it's constantly tested. you constantly have to say, are we still on track, are we back on track that to angelica peebles. tell us. >> lilly is making vials for half the price of what people are paying out of pocket. it will cost $500 for ament's supply depending on the dose. lily is clearly making a play for something people are willing to pay something for a weight loss drug but not the costs without insurance. they might be considered compound aversion drugs all over the internet. hims, remember it wasn't that long ago the company started selling a version of wegovy and said they plan to eventually sell compound and zepbound. even at that price, you're still paying a fun hundred more for

zepp bound. we'll see how many take lilliy p on this offer. >> tell us about nordstrom. >> there's going to be mid step, on the one hand the luxury good segood s sector has been up. but the nordstrom rack has been growing and it helped prop up results across the company. investors will be looking to see if that trend continues during the second quarter. they'll also be looking to see how the department store is improving operations and cutting costs and of course, any color on its efforts to be going private. expect earnings to fall on sales of $3.9 billion. scott? >> all right.

gabrielle fonrouge, thank you. >> if you look at how the market has expressed its preference for walmart, costco, tjx, and to a degree ross stores, that's where they believe is the tail tale on the consumer. it means their secular losers of market share and not much of a macro tell. i think in general, the consumer spends what the consumer has, and 4% annual wage growth is okay. we still haven't had a lot of layoffs. that seems okay, but it's hard to know if that's going to be the lead area of this market even if we are in that, you know, rate cutting trade. >> about 0.8% away from the s&p high. anything positive for the dow is going to be a new record. >> the equal weight is flat on the day, and it's holding at its own record-high.

>> a little broadening. sectors outside technology doing right. we'll leave it there. we're going go go out green as we said on the dow. we'll have a new closing high. the s&p 500 will go high too. no closing high today. there is the nasdaq as well. but, of course, all eyes are on nvidia tomorrow. investopedia doing the honors at the nasdaq. plenty of movement under the surface as attention turns to nvidia's report tomorrow. waiting for stocks to settle here. we might have a new record close for the dow, but it's on the cusp. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan. jon fortt is off tort. we get overtime earnings from nordstrom,