that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm andrea canning. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning and welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and these are your headlines. volkswagen braces for a shutdown or showdown with staff and unions that it could close plants for the first time in germany. sources cites the business could be at risk. rolls-royce heads to the stop of the stoxx 600 recouping some of the monday losses as the

aircraft grounded amid an engine component fault will be back flying at the end of the week. and investors await wall street return from the holiday weekend as well deluge capped off by the non-farm payroll print. and accusing benjamin netanyahu not doing enough to confirm a cease-fire as they suspend weapon exports to tel aviv. so this market picture is actually one to look at. ever since we got the data deluge at the beginning of

august, you were wonder ing if you see looseness in the market. now things have actually changed a little bit. we are awaiting a host of data to come out stateside. we see economic data which points to a slight decline in some economies. the likes of germany, for one, showing weakness in their data. you see the eurozone giving a sense we are headed toward that cut in interest rates again. so, a little bit of a wait and see moment. so many aspects to really look out for as well. even individual stories cancelling each other out. one of the most important ones being the volkswagen story which we will unpack throughout the day as well considering, perhaps, it could get a fuse of those factories closed down in

germany for the first time in its 87-year history. that would be monumental for a company like volkswagen. the movement on that very benign. overall, here's what you see out of the bourses. the german dax managing to move up .2% despite the movement and news out of that. rolls-royce as well being a key component as well moving higher moving the ftse 100. it is march ginal gains so far. still above 8,300. gains for the cac 40, the biggest gainer so far this morning. the rest of the remorning looki at the flat line. you see industrials to the good.

this is the flatness. you are not getting it moving in the most positive way, i suppose. you are getting .50% higher and basic resources and real estate going down .50%. the interest rate story being the key component the market is looking out for. the basic resources in oil and gas telling a sentiment change in china as well to give you a sense as well on that front. we are still waiting news with regards to the oil prices. how will actually things fare with opec plus? those production issues and the production in the middle east. all of that will certainly be at play. .4% lower for the banks so far this morning. on to then u.s. futures. the u.s. is back from holiday. that will be very interesting to t take a look at to consider what is going to happen out of this market. we do have a bit of data to

really look out for then across the united states. ism survey and jolts and job openings and the adp private payroll report, of course, and it all culminates in the non-farm payroll report on friday. wait and see is pretty much the call. that is why this will be very important to look at. 145,000 is the number anticipated from the 114 that was looked at previously. that was the number that shocked the market. if we go below this, what does that mean? let's go to sylvia at unicredit. sylvia, thank you for the time. if we do see that non-farm payroll number come in below the estimate of 145, do we see the outflow and weakness we saw in the market as we saw at the beginning of august? >> good morning, arabile.

a pleasure to be here. listen, i think you made a good summary with the current situation. wait and see is exactly what we are perceiving in the market. frankly, the news flow is a clear confirming what you are saying. the one day it is a positive news on inflation going down. the other day on the expectation on the payroll is better than expected and the day after is a soft stance on the payroll. the reality is there is a lot of uncertainty still. there are very positive news that came out of the market last week in terms of macro data and macro performance. it is a bit to show a concern around potential numbers coming out. again, the market is stuck and pausing and waiting to see what will happen on the next numbers. reality is last week the results

came out on nvidia and there was speculation on the fact that the markets could be hit badly on the general basis and reality is that only the stock got hit and the market recovered and macro data is the best. if you are asking me what we will see on the 5th, of august, clearly, not. there are a lot of numbers coming out on payroll and everyone needs to look out for it. i'm assuming the fed and everyone is going to do ahead with the cut and investors will finally try to pick a bit of faith from what the market and recovery path is going to be. >> and that recovery path is one that the market will look at a lot because of the question mark of the reallocation with the notes you have with us as well. just unpack it a little bit in

the way of reallocation in the fact market that looks to be volatile. perhaps what looks then like mega caps having had their run and now maybe not maintaining leadership? >> i'm looking at it specifically from capital m markets perspective. the reality is we come from the back of the positive, frankly, good company results for q2 for europe and in the u.s. again, macro data is performing well. investor sentiment and investor willingness to deploy capital into the stocks and into the market and strong focus from investors on new companies coming into the market and also potentially blocks. the reality is we are now seeing a problem of supply and demand, but now a problem of potential

new companies coming into the market, right? so, my expectation from the ism perspective is ipo and new companies may probably struggle a bit to come toward the end of the year because of the specific events. you mentioned the u.s. elections, et cetera. the market window is not very wide for a new structure to hit the market. however, i do expect a lot of supply coming from existing companies from the list of companies. the potential private equities and taking the benefit of positive returns from the stock of four months and taking the benefit of more liquidity available with new m&a opportunities. i think this is the trend expected for the end of the year. 2025, i think, again, as i mentioned the potential candidate for ipo is solid.

investor demand is available and i'm expected 2025 to be bullish on 2025 ipo window for europe and the u.s. >> yeah, what do you expect then on the medium term trend with sectors? technology wept up 1 con.2%. do you anticipate that 2rtrend remain for the year other than technology? >> if you look at the results and performance, the reality is europe and financials and healthcare were the best performing into the mrarket. i think investors are willing to deploy capital, but let's call it a safe bet. they would rather go with stocks that are proven to be resilient

over the past months instead of going for more risk companies. technology sector is there to stay. europe and focus on europe now is a bit behind and it's a bit compared to the u.s. good technology companies that will come to europe are still going to attract investor interest because of the viscosity effect, right? you want to be invested in top quality technology names that are european and still needs to take a bit of the growth that we saw in the u.s. >> sylvia, interesting thoughts overall. i think this market is definitely one to really keep a close eye on because it seems to be awarding a lot of active investment at this stage. sylvia, i appreciate the time this morning. we hopefully will chat to you soon. sylvia viviano at unicredit.

now coming up on the show, vw slams the brakes are production in germany as the latest news bites. we'll bring you the latest on that news. stay tuned.

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welcome back. now volkswagen is considering closing plants in germany for the first time taking steps to future proof the company. it comes as it is facing pressure from growing rivals. unions promise fierceresistance to the plans. annette is joining us. annette, how serious a situation is this? >> reporter: it is very serious because what volkswagen is saying according to sources i have been speaking to is the overcapacity amounts to 500,000 vehicles per year. that equals two production sides. the production sides in question

are in lower saxony and one in dres dresden. the one that came back from the federal elections. they are lifting the job security which they enacted in 1994. literally having a job at volkswagen was super safe until now you have to say. what happens next is a big union, state of the union address from the management to workers tomorrow at the headquarters of the company. some 18,000 unionized workers will attend that event and most likely we are going to see loads of protests against the plans from management. already now, volkswagen is not sawing they are returning to

levels, but creating jobs. to be clear where they stand from here. the next steps are the negotiations between management and trade union to find a compromise. i guess the management is pretty clear about the fact they volkswagen can't close the gap in terms of profitability between them and competitors, but just slashing costs. it needs to be harsher measures because the competition, a, is getting fiercer with competitors and at the same time, demand is not coming back. in the middle of the huge transformation, as we all know of the car industry, and consumers are still holding back when it comes to buying electrified vehicles. at the same time, they don't buy that much combustion engines nece anymore. >> annette, i'm going to ask those questions of our next

guest. the head of automotive research and joins us now. thomas, how much of this is an industry wide story or a vw specific one? >> i think it's an industry wide story as we are seeing a major fragmentation of the global automakers. we are seeing many new competitors emerging and as you are saying previously, demand is giving signals of slowdown in china and europe which i think creates a very challenging environment for automakers. with that situation you just discussed and we are discussing now is specific to volkswagen in the sense they have put in place a number of guarantees for workers. they haven't shut plants since 197 1974. they have announced a plant

closure in brussels with the auto brand. they will look at costs for the volkswagen brand in germany. that is a real revolution affecting the volkswagen group and the global wide industry. >> vw has gone through the savings program which it says was pretty much unsuccessful in achieving. they were billions off on that one. is this an auto sector that was late to react in the environment of hybrid or electric vehicles or cheaper automotives that go a little bit longer? was this an auto sector that just wasn't ready for change in. >> i think it takes a long time for the sector to move and it is clear there are a number of unfortunate political developments that are not

helping the automotive sector. the unexpected decision of sweden and germany to stop incentives for electric vehicles have led to this for a long time. discussions going on in france on the '25 budget of potential cuts in france. that will happen next year which is a critical year in automakers with the efforts. they have to substantially repus reduce or face substantial penalties. overall slower demand and linked to higher interest rates and the fact there is a limit for the time being of inexpensive evs. again, a very challenging context for the industry. >> thomas, when one looks at the

share price of vw and how it is done in compared to tesla, for example, and we have it on screen here. it has been the same over the last 12-month period. 10% to 12% down for both of these. is that really a function of how this industry is faring right now? there isn't an upside that a lot of people are seeing because it feels the demand is waning and you have higher interest rates. does a lower rate cycle impact this for vw, but really across autos? >> i think the overall 12 months is not fair. if you look at it over three, five or ten years, tesla has done well even if the last 12 to 18 months have been challenging for them. i think most automotive stocks

have done very poorly because investors understand that 2025 and 2026 will see a disarray of the brand we have seen in the global production demand. at the same when such central technical changes take place continuously and also substantial months of production come out of china. you have a major amount of tensions and i think investors participate in substantial cuts for earnings in '25 or '26 for the overall sector. you have seen volkswagen and tesla slash prices despite completely different changes in earnings expectations in both names. this forecast has been smashed substantially more for volkswagen. i think there is a greater hope

for investors that it is in a better position due to its positions in software and technology and batteries. >> thomas, also, maybe they overestimated the return of china which a lot of companies have, perhaps, also thought about as well. >> certainly. >> thomas, we have to leave it there. thank you so much for your thoughts. one we will continue to watch. this is not over as well. thomas, the head of automotive research at kepler. to another story that is catching the air waves, cathay pacific announced an inspection of the entire airbus a-350 fleet following the in-flight failure of the engine component which happened yesterday.

shares of the supplier rolls-royce fell sharply on the news. it is working closely with cathay pacific on the investigation. watches of switzerland reported quarterly results in line to hit full-year targets. the demand for luxury brands remains strong in the uk as well as u.s. markets. share price this morning up over 8%. snchneider electric ceo announcing a key to race development for a.i. models. the more they develop, the more we get. >> if you look at the data, schneider is the largest provider of infrastructure that

goes into the center. from that perspective, it is big and a lot of money flowing in and a lot of projects are being planned. it is a little bit of a race at the moment because everybody wants to have the latest model to use a.i. with chatgpt and gemini and a number of them. the more these models are, the better the answers are you getting from a.i. let's move on to another manufacture aston martin and the chairman has told cnbc that customer demand remains strong despite nearly 36% decline in the company's share price this year. this comes as aston martin launched it's most powerful production car ever. the 824 brake horsepower

vanquish. the chairman told me he is keeping up with customer demand. >> we have great demand for the naturally aspirated and turbo charged engines. we have a very sports enthusiast customer. a real automotive, in every sense of the word, of petrol head. we have a great following of customers who want a pure sports car who want the thrill, the excitement, the smell, the noise. we are definitely delivering into what customers are asking for. >> a lot of the customer needs range round electrification. have you found the design and wants for oems has moved with

carbon sensitivity and electri electrification? >> we don't find that decline whether so ever. we have a full portfolio not only of combustion engine, but we have the super car we will deliver next year. following up on that, we'll have two other plug-in hybrids before we go to a full portfolio of electrification vehicles. a couple years back, we showed in the capital markets day the rollout of the ev plan. that is still very much in play. we are catering to demands whether you want to be a pureis or plug-in hybrid or ev. >> for more, head to cnbc.com. coming up on the show, we will speak with goldman sachs head of the financing group michael marsh.

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welcome to "street signs." my name is arabile gumede and these are your headlines. volkswagen places for a showdown with staff and unions as the carmaker announces it could close plants in germany for the first time with sources telling cnbc sites could be at risk. rolls-royce heads to the top of the stoxx 600 recouping some of monday losses as cathay pacific says a default flying will be back at the end of the week. and investors await wall street return from the holiday weekend and a data deluge will be capped off by friday's non-farm payroll print. and u.s. president joe biden accuses benjamin netanyahu of not doing enough to secure a

cease-fire with hamas as the uk suspends some weapon exports to tel aviv. goldman sachs is hosting its annual credit and leveraged finance conference in london. cnbc initially spoke to peter oppenheimer on the macro environment and the outlook for the future. >> there's some flushing out of the concentration in the u.s. market which has particularly been healthy and we have started to see a bit of a broadening out in the interest rates in the u.s. and elsewhere. we like a barbell with quality growth and tech, but also some of the deeper areas of the markets that can benefit from lower rates, but can generate good cash flows. >> there's pretty broad

consensus that the funds rate will need to be brought down relatively expeditiously and that is the argument for 50. if you do an ongoing series of 25-basis point cuts, you can get to the same place in just a little bit more time. so, i don't think there is an absolute necessity to do 50 and really it depends on what we see in the numbers and i think that's how the fed's going to look at it. >> why don't we stay with the conference. we are joined by michael marsh at goldman sachs. as we take a little bit more focus on this now then. michael, i appreciate the time. good morning to you. i hope you're well. fairly interesting time in the credit markets. does demand come back with the lower rates environment? >> good morning. thank you for being with us today. 14th equity finance onference. 1,500 investors in the building

today. we will certainly feel for how they're positioning themselves as we head into the year. i think the credit markets do feel good. a number of factors, i think you heard from jan talking about the economy being in reasonable health. soft landing being our base case. from the technical standpoint, the investors in fixed income and credits continue to see inflows. the other factor we consider is the lack of net use apply which puts the balance into the market which generally shows strong performance. if we look at the yields, they were up $100 billion which is close to a record. on the net basis and netting out repayments, we have negative issuance today. if you are an investor in high yield, you are struggling to

stand still. we feel pretty good about the market right now. >> does that pull back at any stage? do you see that net use apply easing off a little bit then at the stage or is that a longer-term story you feel? >> it's probably a medium-term story. we hope to see more net new supply. that is created through acquisition financings. sponsor driven m& a and debt financing. we are starting to see that increasing. so, first half of sponsor my&a s up 20%. the second half was much stronger -- the second quarter was stronger than the first quarter. we are seeing that trend of increasing sponsor myarks a and

i that whip hell will change the negative supply >> you make note of the activity. that is what we will look at the the end of the show. is that showing more financing needs? what is there to create that pick up as well in the credit market? is it a lot more m&a and ipos? >> i think the financing with m yarks and is a pick factor. you asked the example. there are a couple of factors at play here. the economy showing resilience in 2024 off a tricky '23 gives confidence to investors more broadly.

i think the inertia with the sponsor world with the quiet 2022, 2023, means the transactions will grow through 2024. as we get through the increasing rate cycle, we will start to see rates reduce. that will no doubt bring confidence to pew erbuy are buy. you mentioned ipos. we start to see ipos return. some successful ipos from family owned companies and private equity companies and corporate spins. we expect that trend to continue. we think that will be a story for 2024 and 2025. >> michael, i only have time for one more question, but i'll squeeze two into one here , if

may. has that era of credit or leverage of financing come back? is there no comeback for spacs? >> the last question, i don't know. the market always wanted to test what is possible with the industry. who knows what will happen? i do suspect we will increase the number of ipos. we'll see an increase of ipos that come through european and global markets. who knows whas what will come i market? >> michael, i appreciate the time this morning. thank you for joining us. michael marsh, head of financing group at goldman sachs. let's head to another story now. u.s. president joe biden accused the israeli prime minister

benjamin netanyahu of not doing enough to secure a cease-fire with hamas and secure the release of hostages. biden said he would push as hard as he can to get a cease-fire deal. a review found breaches of inter national law. dan is joining us for more on this one. i suppose an update coming from the uk and question marks will be asked around others in the region pretty much feel the same way with regards to the exports, dan. >> reporter: that's exactly right. what we see now, arabile, is prime minister netanyahu under intense pressure at home and an product. you just said u.s. president joe biden is saying benjamin netanyahu is not doing enough to get a cease-fire in place. that is a line that joe biden is under pressure at home to reach an agreement before the end of

his term. pressure mounting internationally and making that decision to suspend the arm sales to israel. the foreign secretary said there is a quote clear risk that those uk weapons and components they use could be used to violate international law. interestingly in israel, of course, netanyahu is staying def defiant. he is insisting israel must stay in control of the strip of land which is a primary sticking point in the hostage release talks. the president may put forward a final proposal this week, perhaps his final line in the sand, to get a deal done. we will probably have to see some compromise on the key

sticking point. on which side remains to be seen at this point. what we also know is that president joe biden and vice president kamala harris also met with national security team yesterday to try to discuss some next steps and strategy to release the remaining hostages and continue negotiations with qatar and egypt for a cease-fire. it is unclear if the president will put forward that final proposal this week which will ultimately determine exactly what happens next, arabile. >> and trying to figure out what happens next, it is about the conversations that the u.s. has on a much firmer and stronger stance if that is the case on israel. is there beginning to be a bit more pushback coming from benjamin netanyahu, the prime minister, then speaking of where he plans to see things and where exactly his ideal run-in would be from here after that line in the sand? >> reporter: this will be really

interesting to watch because on the one hand it also appears like the pressure on netanyahu isn't just international, but it is domestic. what we have seen in the last 24 hours is a significant strike on the ground. that was at the airport and government and small businesses who joined in unison with the strike action to send the message to the defiant leader. at the same time, we have seen tens and thousands of average every day israelis on the streets making their voices heard making the case against the government to say enough is enough here. too many israelis have died and held hostages and the humanitarian crisis unfolding in dpa gaza and the deaths is unacceptable to most other

international leaders and every day israelis as well. you get the sense there is a lot of pressure to try to get something done here. it is now up to netanyahu to try to find some compromise here in order to move forward. >> it serems that way. dan, thank you very much for reporting on the story. let's shift up to where france could run a larger public deficit than expected this year unless the measures to plug the shortfall. the finance ministry told lawmakers the gap could hit 5.6% of gdp rather than the previously expected 5.1%. it all comes as the clock runs down on selecting a new prime minister with talks still ongoing just 28 days before the government has to submit a draft budget to arliament. charlotte is joining us for more on the story. it is not just about getting a new prime minister or the saga

of how do you bring down the debt overall, but really just a combination of all of these things happening all at once and ultimately looking like france doesn't have a clear leadership structure at this point. is that what we're seeing? is that the sentiment that gets put forward with all this? >> president macron is trying. he is the one that launched that grenade in the political landscape calling for the snap election. to be fair to him, he is trying to pick a prime minister that would not be ousted straightaway with a vote of no confidence. if he did pick the left-wing bloc candidate, it would happen straightaway. that's been difficult with the tr truce over the summer with the olympics and there is a call for him to pick a prime minister this week. we talked about the ex-socialist

and ex-prime minister as being the leading name over the weekend. the name gathering a lot of momentum. by lunchtime yesterday, another name gathered momentum. thierry beaudet. the advisory council to the president and former civil society members. here again, a name that is not very well known potentially going down the road of the technocratic area. we have never seen an tthat in france. that could be the way to avoid the political headache with the national assassembly. others say no, no, you need a strong political operator to run. he doesn't have the political experience to run with things at

the moment. especially as were you saying a little bit earlier the budget deadline is coming soon by october 1st. it needs to be presented to parliament. a lot at stake. the deficit could be worse with the acting economy minister. a lot at stake. we still don't have a government. >> let me talk about the political savvyness. i suppose under the different regime, you don't have to worry so much about fragmentation in some leaderships of the past, it was, perhaps, easier to put in a technocrat, if you could. in a time with so much fractured politicians in france, you need one to deal with interior issues. they will have to be very politically savvy, aren't they? >> of course. that is tricky there. the president is giving the figure of stability of institutions there with the fragmented parliament.

he will need an operator to work in this environment because the snap election was called in july, he cannot have another election for another year. we are stuck in this situation until july of next year. the next presidential election is 2027. all of this is at play at the moment. the political forces are reforming themselves. a lot of gains in the snap election. if chaos keeps continuing with the national assembly, that benefits the most extreme element in parliament. all of the forces and mps are saying there is a lot at stake at the moment. we need to avoid chaos. that could play in the hands of the far right. >> how do you avoid chaos when you have taken so long and it's ultimately created all that chaos? charlotte, thank you for that reporting. coming up on the show, uk m&a dipping in the second quarter. we will dip into the details

with the ons chief economist coming up after the brea k.

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let's get into some m&a activity with the rightmove recording the record share yesterday after rupert murdoch was making an offer. it could pose a problem for the london stock exchange according to aj bell. such acquisition would reduce the pool of big name stocks available to investors. this comes as the uk recorded a pullback in m&a activity among uk firms with the number of deals in june the lowest since august of 2020. grant fitzner of ons is joining us. grant, this m&a activity is coming through as well. is this as high as some have put

forward and what is the key activity we have seen so far? >> certainly the latest monthly numbers for june as you mentioned have been lowest since august of 2020. certainly a number of transactions to the bottom. the monthly numbers are quite volatile. they will be revised up. t we tend to focus more on the quarterly numbers and balance of payments numbers. for those, we did see a fall in the second quarter for inward m&a, that came down and acquisitions fell from 4.6% to 4.2%. still kind of within the normal range. what's distinct in the last couple years versus pre-pandemic, we haven't seen the really big m&as we have seen on occasion in the past.

>> is the environment set to change this at all? that's what it feels like. you could have access to greater financing and credit cycles as well. you could get greater demand as well because that ultimately means growth is happening in economies which means you anticipate growth among more entities. is that the case you are anticipating in. >> certainly we are seeing strong economic growth. certainly most than most people had been expecting. we are seeing interest rates falling. you would expect that may be suggesting a more conducive environment to foreign mergers and acquisitions assuming that pulse continues. although, i know there is a lot of talk in the markets that the uk stocks look relatively cheap compared to north america. there have been a number of acquisitions of u.s. firms by uk

firms. we are not really seeing that start to move the dial on the aggregate numbers yet. that may be what we see in future quarters. >> i wanted to talk about that. the foreign companies acquiring uk companies. that was lower recording in the previous quarter. if it is a concern of liquidity, one would defeinitely say a mov taken out by a company stateside would aid that. are you finding concerns around liquidity in the uk market as opposed to the other markets like the u.s.? >> well, finance liquidity is not something you look at directly. certainly what we are continuing to see is the u.s. is the major source of inward mergers and acquisitions. that has been true for quite some time. la last year, the u.s. spent $19 billion acquiring uk companies.

interestingly, in terms of outward moves and acquisitions, the eu has acquired more interest. >> that's a very interesting part of that to note. in terms of sectors, we spoken about the rightmove deal having been announced yesterday. hargreaves as well. are other sectors seeing a lot more movement? >> i don't think you can really generalize that much from a relatively short span of data observations. in terms of longer-term trends, look, i think people will be familiar with the attractiveness of small pharma companies and tech companies and fintech. i guess what is interesting is a few instances of interest in

medium-sized listed companies rather than just small ones. like i said, whether that impacts the aggregate numbers will depend if the trends continue. >> it is fascinating, grant and one we are interested in with the movement. thank you so much for the time this morning. grant fitzner at ons. a quick look at the market and how things are faring. the cac 40 managing to find some gains. that's it for today. thank you so much for joining us here on "street signs." "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. my namee is arabile gumede.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. well come welcome to "worldwide exc exchange." we await what is arguably the most important event for the markets this year. this is the september federal reserve policy decision. our bob pisani lays out the bull case in what has his toretorica been a down month. and taking on elon musk social media platfor