2024. you mean there's a jobs report coming up? "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen. we are back. the boys are back. becky's off today. we have a lot going on this tuesday morning which always feels like the beginning of the sprint from here to christmas after labor day. that's what it is. >> that's not this sprint. >> you don't feel that's the sprint? >> that's tnot the terminus of the sprint. >> the election day? how many days? >> 63. 18 hours and 59 minutes and 21

seconds. >> i know it's on your mind. u.s. equity futures are other people's minds. dow is 227 points down beginning this sprint of the session. nasdaq down 167 points. s&p off 34 points. of course, we had quite some movement in the past week, joe. >> halloween stuff. >> here is how stocks closed the month of august. dow up 1.8%. the s&p up 2.3%. the nasdaq rising by .6%. the wall street journal has a piece out how americans now love stocks. they love the stock market. >> 401(k) millionaires. >> treasury yields 3.9. the two-year sitting under 4 at 3.929%. >> and thanksgiving.

so many things. you know what? >> it's the beginning of school. kids are going to school. >> they have halloween masks. >> people are back to work. >> it's going to be -- >> the sprint. you are sprinting a marathon. >> it is going to be that friday where you start having to go shopping again. have you gotten your christmas shopping done yet? >> do i ever? >> are you surprising me? >> yes. brazil shutting down x, formerly twitter. the country supreme court hleld appa ban on the x platform. musk is accusing the justices of censorship when it ordered the bank accounts of starlink to be frozen. the legal battle over x should

never have been transferred to starlink just because they shared an owner with deepening tensions. starlink refused to shutdown access to x in brazil. it told the telecom regulator it will comply once the accounts were unfrozen. >> we'll talk about my christmas gift in a moment. do you think this is having an impact on invest in brazil? two schools of thought. one is he will fight it. he may win in brazil. one of the reasons he is fighting in brazil is he genuinely believes the law is on his side. how is it possible he is taking this position in brazil, but not in turkey? he believes he is in the right. the question is whether you think if he turned out to be in the right or in the wrong, whether you think others say i don't want to invest in brazil.

brazil had been one of the places that people had looked to for a long time as the next, you know, mecca. >> i like this pragmatic approach you are taking. i think in absolute terms in a lot of times. i think censorship is something you need to push back on in this day and gaage with the discussis of the first amendment. things are happening in the uk. saying he is doing it based on the existing law, which -- >> the only reason i mention that is there are people who will looking at things. >> brazilian law versus turkish law. >> chinese law. >> you go right to left. >> i have not spent the weekend on phones with every lawyer in town. >> can you imagine having to be a legal expert on chinese law in

the united states? >> you wouldn't have to know much. >> perplexity. grok. it might be hard. go to the library over the weekend. i want to see you do that yourself. back here, a major carrier battle leaving directv without disney chaen channels. if that story sounds familiar, it's because a similar blackout happened in year at the same time with channels going dark on spectrum. it took 12 days before the first monday night nfl game of the season took place. you can do math about how that's

going to play out this year. programming note, julia boorstin will speak to dana walden and james pitaro at 11:40 a.m. on "money movers." both names included in the suc succession game happening over there. >> are people still watching directv? is it still a thing? >> still a thing. >> that is your own fault. that's not true. directv, fine. the other thing -- >> god bless those folks watching "squawk box" on directv. we thank you for it. >> you love all your children. directv is not going to be the future of things. >> it is harder to be the future of things. in many rural areas of the country, that is how people get access to us. >> tens of dozens.

>> more than that. >> i was thinking about sports because guess where you can bet now? colorado. >> colorado? >> colorado. you were around. you weren't betting from all of the different globetrotting. they're not going well. >> they're not? what's wrong with them? are they broken? germany automaker, even the composite not going well. german automaker volkswagen can no longer rule out plant closures in germany as it cuts costs to future proof the company. in a statement yesterday, volkswagen ceo said a tough economic environment and competitors in europe and germany's falling further behind as a competitive manufacturing location. volkswagen said brands within the company would need to go

through a come prehensive restru restructuring. it was slammed by the trade unions. hotel workers in eight american cities are strike on sunday. they attempted to disrupt labor day week travel after the biggest hotel companies failed to reach a new contract agreement. marriott and hyatt and hilton and fairmont including front desk staff and employees. the union is fighting for higher wages and hyatt and hilton are committed to negotiating in good faith. both have contingency plans to mitigate the sdrtrike. >> you didn't fly yesterday? >> i did. >> you flew into newark? >> i did.

tell me what happened. >> ground halt. no radar. >> they knew i was coming. >> seriously. three-hour delay. got in at midnight. i'm like, it's difficult when things like that happen and you have to wait at newark. >> for the bags. >> sometimes the bags take as long as the flight. i have to bring things that i don't wear. i could have been there months and instead, you know -- if the radar's not working for the air traffic guys, it's like, okay, get that fixed. wouldn't you rather wait? i'd warather wait. there's no rush. you got in? >> i got in around 9:30. >> you didn't hear anything about this? >> i heard nothing about this. >> i immediately got -- i can read you what it said.

>> i'm sure you can. >> it was not -- okay. your flight is delayed because of faa radar outage is preventing planes from landing at newark liberty international. i thought it was across the board today. you were coming from -- i don't know. i don't know what happened. it was bad. very bad. > shares of rolls-royce rebounding after cathay pacific canceled flights after engine issues on a flight from hong kong to zurich. the flight returned to hong kong. it completed repairs and expects to complete the other repairs by

friday. the airline is fully informed on the developments. deutsche bank is positive on the stock because liab liability, would be contained. we have more on the broadcast in the next three hours. the holiday-shortened trading week. it feels like a long week. we have a flurry of jobs data coming up and later, we will talk about the next vemo from loretta mester. "squawk box" coming right back after this. right through itsg in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars. the property, the mortgage and mortgage performance. this trifecta of data and its history is a bit of a data scientist's holy grail. ♪♪

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switch today! on this week's squawk planner, quarterly results from dick's sporting goods. we will hear from dollar tree and broadcom and 3 c.5 i. we will get the job openings and manufacturing index. a lot of data coming up here. the big event on friday with the august jobs eport. for all of this, as we set up post vacation week, stephanie link from hightower. school is back in session and so is the markets. stephanie, what are you doing? >> good morning. i'm buying. i was adding last week to a few names in broadcom and cr

crowdstrike and chipotle. i think you want to be adding to stocks on weakness if we get it and today we're getting it a little bit. september should likely be a little bit volatility. you want to use that weakness to be adding. we got through two big hurdles the last couple weeks. we got through jackson hole. we had a dovish fed powell, chair powell and nvidia. the numbers were really good. the a.i. boom continues. you have the economy growing. we have a second quarter gdp revised higher and the atlanta fed at 2.5%. you had good pce on friday. that translates into good earnings. that's why i want to add to weakness if we get it. >> you said this is going to be a bit of a choppy period. we always wonder how choppy it's

going to be. when you think about the number we're going to get on friday and overlay the election. that's what we were talking about earlier. a sprint from labor day to christmas. a huge 68 days. >> 63. >> it's the intermission. >> 63 days. >> intermission of the big show. how does that matter or not in your mind right now to how the markets are moving? >> i think you are going to see some choppiness. the economy has been resilient. this is an economy that just won't quit. if you look at a lot of the data that i just mentioned and in addition to the gdp and reinvestigations there, youhad ism services that actually have been good. the new orders within ism services have been very strong. the employment numbers, by the way, within the ism services,

has been actually better than expected. i think friday is going to be fine. i think maybe we get a little bit of chop on the news, but i think overall, we are growing. if we are growing at 2% or 2.5% on the economy, earnings can be 8% to 10%. you can see it broadening out. we are seeing a broadening out in the markets which is very encouraging, andrew. this morning, we had a whole slew of updates in the banks. they are trading one times book and they have good dividends and great capital. that is a sector i really like. industrials i really like with the renaissance going on with the on-shoring and re-shoring. the economy is mixed. winners are target, walmart and costco. there are issues with others there. i think you can pick and choose. >> give me the tech a.i. story right now. it feels like such a jump ball

at this point. >> i don't think it is a jump ball. i think the stocks have had such a nice run. the risk-reward is not great, but i do think you are still in very early innings. you have addressable market of $1 trillion. i thought marvell reported good numbers. it was the non-a.i. cyclical businesses seeing a recovery. that's why i like broadcom. i don't want to play it for the quarters. i do think if you have the a.i. and a.i. orders running up 200% for broadcom and now the cyclical part which marvell said was recovering, that business for broadcom, the orders grew 30% last quarter. i think there are ways to play it. i think you want to have exposure if yyou want the volatility to be adding to those

names. >> we will hear from apple, a week from yesterday, in terms of the new product offering and new phones and everything also. do you buy into whatever the apple move is ahead of that or do you wait and see? do you know what we will see? >> the stock is up 30% from may. actually, i've been trimming apple. i like it a lot for the long term, but i do think the expectations are a lot higher. i do think you are going to see a whole refresh cycle. i don't know if it happens right away, andrew. it may be exciting what we hear about for the long term and a.i. in the phones and refresh. i'm not sure we're going to get a lot of answers next week and the stock has run quite a bit. that's why i was taking profits. everybody hated this thing in

the spring. that's when i was adding to it. now people are jazzed up about it and i think it's time to take some chips off the table. >> little bit like buffett. buffett took them out earlier. he took them off back in may. he missed a little bit of that up upside. we'll call you mrs. buffett this morning. stephanie, thank you. >> thanks, andrew. coming up, vice president harris taking a stance on the deal by a japanese company to buy u.s. steel. later, we will talk more about the eleconti with congressman byron donalds. "squawk box" is coming right back. and retirement savings. voya helps you choose the right amounts without over or under investing. so you can feel confident in your financial choices voya, well planned, well invested, well protected. daughter: hey, dad. dad: hey, sweetheart. daughter: what are you doing? dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer.

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vice president harris said she backs president biden's stance on the potential deal for a japanese company to buy u.s. steel. here's what she said in the campaign event yesterday in the roomful of union workers in pittsburgh. >> u.s. steel is vital for our nation to maintain strong american steel companies and i couldn't agree more with president biden. u.s. steel should remain american owned and american operated. and i will always have the backs of america's steel workers. >> it was harris' first comment on the proposed deal. president biden stated it will remained domestically owned, but falls short of blocking it.

meantime, the controversial movie of donald trump called "the apprentice" starring a young donald trump and his team is filing a lawsuit over the movie. the communications director said the october release is akin to inflation interference by hollywood elites. the movie was funded by dan schneider's production company. it wanted to block the release after trump was not portrayed positively as expected. you were just in telluride. >> i was just walking along and it premiered and jack smith walked by me. i didn't speak to him. he was in town. there were rumors and i didn't go to the reagan movie or "the apprentice" movie. i'm not going to be jaded by

either. there was, i think, hillary clinton and chelsea were there, they had a movie as well. there was a rumor he was going to introduce, i think that would have been really bad if he introduced this thing. there's no indication he did. his wife is a filmmaker. i assume that's why he was there. it is weird because i wasn't thinking about him and he walked by. he is distinctive with the beard and things like that. i go, whoa. i know who that gentleman was. >> somebody will make a movie about that, i'm sure, at some point. we'll see. >> about what's happening. >> all of this. when we come back, credit unions have been buying on a bank buying spree, but we'll talk more about this with liesle picker in just a moment. don't go anywhere. we'll return after this.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box"

live in the nasdaq market site in times square. the futures are giving back from a strong friday before the three-day weekend. it's weird. you say it's a long week, but a four-day week. it's a long week. i just remembered the shock of being back here. >> reentry. so many families with kids going to skchool this week. first day of school today. some started school last week. chilly for fall. meantime, credit unions have been on a buying indspree. should they remain tax exempt if they're doing this? leslie picker is joining us. >> reporter: gobbling up community banks at a record clip. credit unions were established

150 years ago in rural america for those without access to traditional banking. throughout the last century, credit unions have operated as non-profits exempt from most taxes. recently, they scaled to the point where they are buying billions of assets of community banks representing a quarter of deals. the tax-exempt status gives them an m&a advantage and the scale no longer justifies the taxpayer subsidies. >> there's just something wrong with what are essentially non-profit organizations buying tax paying customer and profit-making organizations. i think it's time to reevaluate the tax exemption that credit unions now have because they are no longer the self serving or

membership serving organizations. they're growing and expanding and essentially commercial banks. >> reporter: the credit unions say the tax-exempt status allows them to charge less for loans and pay more on deposits than traditional banks. doing away with the tax-exempt status would have impact on the gdp and jobs. the administrator which regulates the industry told us regardless of size, credit unions abide by their mission. >> generally, credit unions pay more on the share deposits and they charge less on the loans they make to consumers. i think that's a good thing for the american consumer. >> reporter: still the m&a trend continues. harper says he is aware of 12 more potential deals in the works. not all of those will get approved necessarily, but still

very much an upward trend here. >> very good. do you have a view on this? >> i'm thinking about our next interview. >> leslie have a view on this? i don't know. i'm of mixed opinion this morning. >> i think that's a good precedent. that's a good way to be. i'm trying to work on that. trying to be more curious and less judgmental. >> i like that. >> that's a good way to be. >> good way to be. >> thank you, leslie picker. thank you for inspiring joe this morning. >> it's not really working for me so far. >> you're not feeling it? >> just in general. trying to be curious to try to understand other people's viewpoints. once i try to do that, i still don't understand it and i just can't believe some of the stuff. we'll talk to a, saol in a

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our next guest is going to weigh in on the 2024 presidential race and more. joining us is sol trujillo. he is chairman of the latino donor organization. back in san diego. same place this year? >> yes. >> san diego? you can wear white pants in san diego, just to be clear. >> you can. i am -- you know what? i said i'm going to be curious.

that's how you start a lot of your questions. i'm curious with sol because i have been under the impression that conservative movements or not necessarily trump, but the hispanic community since 2016 has been moving to the right. you're going to come right now and say that in terms of the binary choice within this election, you think it is an easy choice to pick kamala harris. >> well, i don't think i've said that. >> okay. >> let me be clear. >> you said trump's going to crash the economy. >> if what i said -- what i said was he will crash the economy if he goes forward deporting 10 million people. >> it's specific to that. could he do that? do you think that's something that could actually be done? >> obama deported 3.5 million. >> he did? >> he's not on my most favorite list either.

if you look at the history, modern history of our economy, those presidents starting with reagan, followed by clinton, they had the highest gdp growth rate 3.5% over 16 years. >> okay. >> and since then, and the drivers were labor force growth rate, plus supplemented by immigration. those are the highest. there's a common sense point that i like to make with people. i say this to business school deans. don't ever forget you grow -- an economy will grow with more people working with money in their paockets. you can talk about technology where i spent most of my life. the core growth is spending in this economy and we need more workers working. >> sol, is there a way to do it where you secure the border so that it is not illegal immigration and you open up

immigration for more legal people? isn't there somewhere in the middle where it's just not -- >> i've been frustrated by both republicans and democrats. i'm still a registered republican -- >> interesting. >> my point is on immigration, we need more workers. we talked about on-shoring from china and other places. we can't do it because we don't have -- >> would you not close or try to secure the border though? >> yeah, secure. there's ways to secure it looking for the bad people and criminal people. th there's interpol and data bases. they spent time talking about the extraneous matters. the issue is how do we process more properly and smartly. we need workers. the question is can we get workers with skills to put to work in the economy and secondly, those without the

skills, we put in training programs. there is a company called accenture. they only used to hire graduates and now they train them for the jobs that they have. the economy has evolved and we have to understand it. i call it smart immigration which says you process people much faster than decade-long processes. >> what's the cost of doing this in your mind? >> the cost is a lot lower than what we are doing today with all this building walls and all the things that don't work. we have already proven walls don't work, right? thequestion now is the right i.t. systems and the right people -- >> as long you have people pouring over the border who are not supposed to be here, what do you do? >> you put a process in a way where they are sorted out those that shouldn't be coming in and

those that can. if you ever went to disneyland 20 years ago and saw the long lines, did disney say no more? we will not take more customers or did they fix the process of being able to process more people in a period of time? >> more people cheaply? less expensive? >> less expensively than what we are doing today. we are just throwing money at quote security and it is not changing the problem that's there. people want to come here and we need workers and we need the right workers and put them into our system. there was a study done by accenture that said there were 25 to 30 million on-shoring jobs r available to us. if we don't have workers, how do we on-shore? all of the jobs are in mexico and other countries and we did not get them. why? we didn't use or minds in terms

of solving the issue. it's a database issue. >> i can't believe you are not going to come on here and not brag about the hispanic contribution to the u.s. economy because that's what we do at latitude. it is always mind boggling the numbers. the fourth largest economy. is it continuing? >> absolutely. this is part of the immigration story. the problem is last year, we announced the latino cohort is now bigger than india in terms of gdp. i can tell you -- >> that's a frightening fact. amazing. >> the power of immigrants that camehere, a lot of them. when donald trump says my country -- this is my country. he's a third generation german i am immigrant. this is a country that has

evolved. benjamin franklin used to argue against immigrants. he was an immigrant way back when. we had these arguments. let's get smart about how we do it. smart immigration. the latino cohort is huge. when we announce the next study, it will be gobsmacked. >> we talked about it before we came on. 2016, trump got in the 20s for hispanic vote. by 2020, he was in the mid-30s. earlier this year, when biden was still in, it was 46-45. real income grew 7%. lowest unemployment. lowest level ever. got lower under biden. real wages were still down under biden. inflation is up 20%. hispanic wages up 16%. hispanics did better under the trump presidency than the biden

presidency. >> i think the data is a little bit spurious. my point is that the latino cohort has been doing well and the vote, if you were on in the reagan era, he got over 50% of the latino vote. this is not new that latinos tend to be business oriented and conservative. >> this is the highest since '72. w had over 40. >> yeah. it's not new. the question is the latino cohort today, let's assume there's 60 to 65 million to make easy math. four people per households. 5 million latino families own businesses. you can divide 5 into 15 or 1 out of 3 or 1 out of 4.

taxes matter. regulation matters and the ability to hire people. when you can't hire people, you're not happy. >> right. out there, we were talking about the possible corporate income tax increases, capital gains increases. you go, we don't know if she will do any of those things. you don't know if trump will deport. you have to pick and choose which things will really happen and you don't have any idea what she's going to do. >> she is not really laid out -- >> i know. >> an economic plan. >> you're still a republican. >> i like to say and i've said this, i'm not a trump -- i won't say that until i know that he cares about all people and he cares about building the base of the economy and one of the biggest fears i have today is we're losing the notion of capitalism. i don't mean capitalism versus

socialism, but a high er and higher concentration of wealth. >> that's the age old question. >> you start deploying capital. >> you deploy capital. you don't arbitrarily transfer payments. we have to go. they're playing us out. we got to go. i'm sorry. san diego. same hotel? >> yes. yes. >> good place. thank you. sol. >> thank you. >> pitching in for the cohort. >> which cohort? >> latino. >> yeah. yes. the democrats. >> i would see you out there. coming up, today's top stories and the activist battle taking place at southwest airlines. we will bring you that battle right after this.

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box." among today's top stories, we are watching shares of southwest airlines, and crossing what is now a key threshold, we should say, for activist investors to call a special meeting should it choose to do so. the news coming just days before a meeting between the two set for next week. and then huawei wants to make sure it's stealing some of the thunder and will hold its own launch, and that's hours after the apple event teasing the new product, the huawei executive said they have turned

science fiction into reality. we have a developing story. yemen's-backed youthies attack two more oil tankers in the red sea, and they claim responsibility for targeting the blue balloon with missiles and drones, but not the second. the pwrau seupl supreme court upholding a ban on elon musk's platform x. we will dig into that story right after the break.

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welcome back to "squawk box." brazil's supreme court upholding

a ban on social media x. it shutdown access for some 20 million users. joining us for the story, he's been following elon musk for years, and this is raising ier and eyeballs. what is the latest and where do things stand and what does it mean for not just x but star link and spacex? >> the decision was upheld yesterday, so at this point you can't look at x in brazil unless you are using a vpn that allows you to circumvent the way they are blocking it down there. elon spent the weekend throwing tweets at the situation, which probably doesn't help him in the courts down there but he's kind

of made his bed at this point. >> from your vantage point having reported this story out and looking at the legal positions in brazil, who is in the right? the reason i ask this is because there's been criticism of elon, and if turkey tells him to shut it down, he shuts it down, china tells him to shut it down, maybe he shuts it down, i don't know. he is fighting as if law is on his side? >> in places where there are strong men, strong leaders, where he has incredible business opportunities such as china, and he seems to be more deferential to that leadership. brazil sl a unique case here. his business is spacex, the star link satellite system that he has has been finding success in the rural parts of brazil, so he has future potential business growth in that market but he seems to be taking a principled

stand and is making the argument that x will follow the laws of the lands where it operates, and brazil, he says, the government there is breaking its own laws by asking x to silence political speech, and that's kind of the case he's making. it has not gone far. it's another market. i'm no legal expert there. that's where we are at, he's making the case he's being asked to break the law but doesn't want to do that in brazil. >> we also talk about how intertwined the octopus of elon's many businesses and the success he has of creating so many of them, but how intertwined they have become, where x is enter related with star link and then there are

those invested in x that will be impacted by folks in starlink or vice versa? >> yeah, it's efforts in x and his crusade on free speech is affecting his other businesses, and starlink has been frozen in brazil and not taking in revenue, and the escalation of the way he's operating in another part of his life, and investors still seem to be patient there, have been giving him a lot of rope and do his things with x because tesla and spacex, they see great potential there, great returns, and that's what we have seen over the last few years as he has increasingly become more involved in x, became more outspoken -- >> do you think these things

will relate back to tesla, though? tesla is a big one because there are a lot of retail investors involved? >> that's a big one. it's hard to imagine tesla getting into brazil in the near term because of this. >> tim, thank you for joining us this morning. appreciate it. >> thank you. >> you bet. it's just past 7:00 a.m., 7:01. i am andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen as we kick things off. becky is off. but school is on for so many families around the country, and this is like the beginning. and the election -- a lot going on. the fall is here, folks. communications of america pulled out of a mediation with at&t, and the union arguing the company used the process to stall negotiation processes, and

meantime espn and all disney entertainment channels still in the dark today for directv customers two days after going off the air when both sides could not reach a carrier decision. vice president harris saying she is opposed of the steel deal. put that in tax and tipping, they are together. >> and building a wall. checking the futures this morning, we are getting back some of the gains we had on friday. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket movers. it's tuesday, dom. if it's tuesday, it must be -- i don't know, "squawk box." >> well, it could be, but it's not belgium. we know that.

that's for sure. joe and andrew, we will get things started on this tuesday morning with a check of shares on boeing. they are sliding 3.5 to 4% or so and this is due to wells fargo downgrading that stock, and saying the net debt will consume all of its cash to 2030, and that playing a part in moving boeing shares down 3.5%. let's go to banks. wells fargo down marginally, and ban bank of america up, and also that wells fargo should benefit from investments itmade in trading, its investment banking

and credit card operations, so keep an eye on the big banks. and we finish up with netapp, and they went from buy to hold saying they are taking advantage of a 9% pullback last week following a company earnings report and, so net app shares in focus as well. for those and other top analyst calls of the day, go to cnbc.com/pro. it's tuesday. it's not belgium, but it is "squawk box." i will send things back over to you guys. >> anything else, dom? you saw the shank heard around the world, i guess? i love the explanation. when asking, how could it happen? well, when if you hit the ball off -- he's so great, isn't he?

>> i will say this. it was a little less dramatic than i think some people wanted it to be. it was kind of a forgone conclusion -- >> is there anybody that has experienced that? the question is how does it happen to anybody if you are that good? it's good that we know it can happen to anybody, right? >> exactly. makes me feel better that us mortals can hit something like that. >> thank you for including me. >> you got it. when we return, market strategist, tom lee will be with us and tell us what is expected for the first day of trading, but historically, hate to say it, it's a bad month for stocks. and then byron donalds will discuss the trump and harris plans. we will debate that and more as

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the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. aes is changing the "soulmates."ar. soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse.

why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. the futures right now, you can see pressure this morning especially in the dow and nasdaq in particular. the nasdaq was strong on friday, three days ago, but down 167. joining us for the call on the markets for the first trading day of september, a cnbc contributor, and tom, some of the calls, some short-term, it had to do with positive

surprises on inflation. is that going to be enough from here on out to keep the market headed higher, or have we shifted to growth worries now? >> i think there's probably more growth worries in peoples' minds these days, so the jobs reports and claims seem to have more market reaction and i think that will be the case in september as well. we have the fed meeting sort of in the middle of the month, but this week is the jobs reports and i am sure there will be a lot of focus on that. >> right. so what kept you positive was that the numbers were always for the market, they were better than people were thinking. is that going to continue to be the case and it's no longer inflation but now growth, so growth will continue and jobs will continue pretty good? you are not worried about another growth scare like we had six weeks ago? >> yes. i think the growth scare is what everyone is worried about, because the july jobs reports

was a shock to markets and that's part of how we had that black tokyo monday. i think the reports for august will show a nice rebound for growth and jobs. hopefully it's not too strong, because, of course you know if it's too strong the fed might backpedal on a september cut. >> so seasonally, andrew just eluded to, a lot of times september is not great. >> i think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks. >> next eight weeks be cautious? >> yes. >> you are not always cautious. >> yeah, the markets have been up 7 of the eight months year, and we have the september cuts and the election, things that will get people nervous. i think in the next eight weeks people get a chance to buy, so i think it's good to be cautious

but ready to buy that, too. >> because you are fearless and will say anything, and you have in the past actually talked about election-related trades and trump trades. do you see anything going on? bitcoin. >> yeah, bitcoin and energy, and the fact that oil is being weak even with geopolitical risks tells me i think the market is starting to bet more on a trump election. >> because there would be more production. >> more production. >> which is not necessarily the way you might think about things, because we hear about, you know, we are at records for oil production and nobody realizes the reason we are at records is because prices were so high it caused more drilling and activity and the prices were high because it's harder to

drill in the nlg and everything else the biden administration admini did. >> oil is weak. >> china is becoming more mysterious, and there's negative risks for the gdp there. >> funny you said eight weeks, and it's almost eight weeks, but ski 63 days or so. in your view people should get long? >> i think they will get a chance to buy long, yeah. it's one of those times when investors should be cautious. >> how far down? 10%? >> i think 7 to 10 is a possibility. we already had two 7% corrections this year, so it's kind of -- it has been testing investors' patients b-- patienc,

but there's turbulence. >> and buy the dip when it goes down by two or 3% or you have to wait for five, six, 7% pullback? >> well, 1 or 2 is daily noise. i think something like a 5% pullback is very likely. >> are you waiting for that? >> yeah, i think -- you know, we will find out in the jobs report. if it's too strong and investors worry and the stock market is down friday, i would be buying the dip. there's a chance we get a good -- i hate to sound so binary, but i think it's a strong market so i don't think we have seen the top for 2024, but it's just that the next eight weeks are tougher. >> i hate asking about the fed,

but we are looking at the friday numbers in context of what the fed does whether it goes 25 or 50? everybody is assuming 25 at this point, and that's not going to be exciting to anybody, is it, and almost like a nonevent? >> that's right. it's telling us there will be six cuts in the next two years -- >> six 25-basis cuts? >> yes. i think it would take a bad jobs report to make it 50. >> right. but in terms of risk, and we always go symmetric, asymmetric, and it almost sounds like you are more worried about the jobs number being too hot than another growth scare? >> yeah, that's right. >> that's weird. >> i think because of the perception of a soft landing moved to the hard landing on the july jobs report because

unemployment picked up, and now if the jobs report is solid everybody will flip back to things are too good and the fed has to actually not cut and i think that's what is going to be the debate on friday. >> so you buy if we go down 10%. how is next year? what does next year look like to you? double digit up? >> you know, there's probably pent-up demand because companies have been cautious for the last two years, and if mortgage rates are still too high, in the 6s and dropped to the mid 5s, i think it's a good market year next year. >> one more political question. i don't know what would get through in terms of capital gains and unrealized capital gains and corporate tax increases, but just in the last administration, i think a lot of what would be perceived as negative for business initiatives were overcome by the

fiscal -- just the stimulus that we got. >> yeah. >> could that happen again, you do horrible things on the supply side but you spend so much money it goes up? if kamala harris were to win, what do you think the market does? >> i think markets are still going to be fine, just because of the tailwind from demographics. but you are right, in the back of peoples' minds, i do think eventually markets will worry about the deficit. it is hard to imagine the spending like this without having consequences. >> would raising corporate rates help -- would that be perceived as positive for the deficit or negative for corporations? >> from purely the perspective of markets, i think raising taxes on businesses and wealthy would be negative. >> negative. okay. okay. because you are wealthy, so all you care about is yourself.

no, i always hear about that, and i love the tax cuts because i live in new jersey, and that's all you care about sorkin, keeping the tax cuts -- >> no, we have to figure out a way to do more. >> i know, but you hear that, don't you? all i hear about is tax cuts. >> the last tax cut got me a tax hike, so that's not how i am viewing things. >> it could go up. i imagine you do worry about the taxes going up? >> for corporations? totally. >> not corporations, individuals. >> they already did. they can't get any worse. coming up on the other side of the break, days after israeli forces discovered the bodies of six bodies in gaza, grief and anger continuing to erupt in the region and here at home, we will talk farm policy next with the

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welcome back to "squawk box." at the white house on monday president biden saying he does not think israel prime minister benjamin netanyahu has done enough to secure a hostage deal,

and the comments made ahead of harris and the security team discussing policy going forward. joining us,the author of "the genius of israel," and this weekend i think was quite a shock with so many people watching what took place. >> yeah, it was. the six israelis slaughtered by hamas, two of them i knew personally -- their families i knew personally, i didn't know them. >> we were saying you spent time with one father. >> there was a sense when i spoke to at least one family over the weekend, they were seeing glimmers of hope. there were rescue operations

that seemed to be yielding some sort of success and there was an ongoing hostage negotiation, and carmel and hersh were on the list if there were a deal, so there was a cautious optimism that obviously has been dashed. >> dare i ask, and let's stipulate at the moment that hamas is to blame no matter how you deposit the question, and there are now lots of people saying what do you do next? some people are blaming netanyahu, right? >> uh-huh. >> some people are blaming -- there's blame that is being casts in all sorts of different ways. >> yep. >> my question to you is where do you lay the blame and what do you think is supposed to happen next? >> well, a couple things. first of all, what president biden is frustrated by, it seems, is that these negotiations, the u.s. invest

all these negotiations and they don't go anywhere, and whether it's the president himself or antony blinken, i think five times since april 27th, every time they put forward some sort of proposal israel agreed to it and hamas rejected it. up until five days ago they were saying israel was onboard with the proposal and hamas was rejecting it. there are issues that still need to be sorted out even though israel is agreeing to the direction of the proposals, and one is if israel releases the palestinians prisoners for the hostages, who are the prisoners? when hamas supplies its list of which prisoners it wants, does israel get to veto some of those prisoners. and so one question is who gets

released? the other question is how many israeli hostages are released? are they alive or dead? >> there's a fundamental question, and on one side you are hearing from netanyahu saying, look, we are willing to negotiate and prepared and every time hamas says we can't. on the other side, you have people inside his own cabinet, the head of security saying -- getting in a public fight with him over the fact that they have not pursued these settlement deals. >> yeah, well, okay, there's a huge division between the israeli government, and this is related to the philadelphia corridor, and what are we talking about? the philadelphia corridor is between gaza and egypt. when israel left gaza in 2005,

2006, it agreed to allow egypt to be responsible for security in the gaza-egypt border, what they call the rafah crossing and the philadelphia corridor. what israel has learned since 2005, only recently, that hamas has used that corridor to smuggle in all its munitions and what they used for the labyrinth of tunnels, and what they used on october 7th was largely coming through there. by the way, since israel has been in rafah, they found 180 tunnels -- >> why is the defense minister effectively saying the opposite? >> he's not saying the opposite. the defense minister has said israel needs control over the philadelphia corridor.

>> the temporary -- >> well, he's saying in pursuit of a hostage deal, right, we can leave philadelphia and come back. >> now saying we don't think we can go back. >> yeah, the military and defense minister is saying israel can leave and go back, and if it's in pursuit of a hostage deal, we will take the risk, and netanyahu saying it's not that easy. it's not a military judgement, but it's also a political judgment. >> what do the people think? >> hold on. if israel leaves philadelphia, you saw for months the international community was saying don't go into rafah. israel was feeling such pressure they held back, and netanyahu is saying once they leave the prime minister will have to make that decision and be under enormous pressure. i think the polling, the public

is tired and exhausted with netanyahu, and 2023 didn't help, and he's been in power for a long time. i think sometimes people conflate the frustration with netanyahu personally as a political leader with what are his policies on these issues, and most israelis don't want to cut a deal. >> what do the american people think? there was a viral video where tim walz gets asked about this, and doesn't even try to answer the question. he literally says, thanks, guys, and i am out of here. and the question is who is going to -- is the biden/harris -- they are not a ticket, or the harris/walz ticket going to be held responsible for this.

is there a view where former president trump would have dealt with this differently? do we know? what do you think? >> americans have a sense the middle east is spiraling out of control. central command just put out a press relief the last couple of days and a couple more tankers were hit by the houthis in the gulf, and there's a sense the region is spiraling out of control that not only hurts our allies like israel, and it has implications for the united states. a. b, the u.s. senses there's a crackup, and there was an american citizen was shot, executed by hamas. you have thousands of people storming the streets of new york, and they were showing solidarity not with just palestinians but they are waving hamas and hezbollah flags. i think a lot of americans that may not be following the

geopolitics of what is happening in the region looks and sees a sense of disorder and a crack in the israeli society and they want somebody who will reign this in. >> do you have any sense that harris or walz will reign this? do you have a sense trump will reign this in? >> i am completely underwhelmed so far of the statements coming from walz and harris. >> then say what it is. will they end up losing votes in other states other than michigan by coddling a certain demographic in michigan, which is, in my view, exactly what they are doing here. >> yeah. >> when do jewish people in other states say it's not worth it to put all your eggs in one

basket, to win michigan, and is that not what is happening? am i just cynical? >> i think getting into political analysis, rank punditry -- >> it's about time. >> well, since he was put on the ticket in the last few weeks, everybody coming together, incredible unity and enthusiasm among the democratic coalition, and part of that is bringing des disspirited democrats home, and they are not talking that much about israel, and it's not leaning one way or the other but just keeping quiet on it. >> the question people are trying to figure out, are they just not going to talk about it or take action so it if they were to win? >> that's what worries me the

most. what worries me the most, if you look at what harris has said as vice president, every time she has spoke on the issue as vice president said things critical of israel, and they may say -- she basically said israel should not go into rafah. take that for for example. she said israel cannot go into rafah. >> rachel's mother spoke at the dnc convention. >> one thing harris was most explicit about is israel cannot go into rafah, and we know the six hostages were in rafah, and there are many more hostages in rafah, and the idea that israel was being told by vice president

harris not to go into rafah, based on wt?ha >> thank you, thank you for the conversation. >> thank you. "squawk box" coming back right after this.

about 10,000 hotel workers

in eight american cities went on strike on sunday. they attempted to disrupt labor day weekend travel after their union and some of the country's biggest hotels failed to reach a new contract agreement. workers at marriott, hyatt and others. in the meantime, take a look at futures ahead of today's opening bell on wall street on this tuesday morning. looking right now at red arrows. the dow opened down about 211 points, and the s&p 500 down about 28 points. "squawk box" coming right back from times square, the nasdaq marketsite, after this. you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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let's bring in pat toomey, former republican senator of pennsylvania that served on the banking and finance committees. and we may have senator from

north carolina. she's a director of the university of politics, and there's nobody pushing back except for me, but i won't push back. if you don't want to talk about the presidential race -- >> i'm happy to talk about that. >> or senate. >> yeah. >> guys like you, guys like paul ryan that tell me -- you give me a list of reasons why kamala harris would be the worst thing to ever happen but still won't vote for trump and say something like it's not really a vote for harris, and i -- because it's a binary choice, so a vote not for trump is a trump for harris? >> first of all, i voted for trump twice in 2016 and 2020, but when you lose in an election but try -- >> we are allfamiliar. >> you lose me at that point. >> so you prefer kamala

harris -- >> hold on. hold on. i acknowledge the outcome is a binary situation, but my choice is not. you and i will disagree on this. >> what if it came down to one vote and it's yours -- >> it's an exceptional position for me to say neither of these candidates -- >> okay, unrealized capital gains -- >> well, we need republican control of the senate and that's essential. if the other side runs the table, then they will repeal the filibuster and they will be dragged by their left wing, which is clearly in charge now, and i think kamala harris proved that with her vice presidential election, and there will be a medicare for all and there will be no brakes. but the good news is, i think republicans are going to take the senate.

>> perhaps, but there's plenty -- okay, there's plenty of regulatory moves from biden, plenty of executive orders and plenty of things even if the senate does well -- >> yes, there's damage that will be done there and a republican senate can mitigate that by its power of confirmation, so they have to hang tough on some of the nominees. >> it could be a defensive gridlock type of situation, where the worst-case scenario doesn't happen, and we don't make it a civil offense across the border and we end the filibuster -- >> all of those things don't happen if republicans get control of the senate. >> i am trying to understand it, and you may be right, but i am trying to understand it, i keep hearing from all sorts of people in and around the vice president, her policies -- when it comes to economic policies, they will be more centrist than

portrayed in the media and getting to all of that, this is what i am getting told if you talk to people in and around her, and those proposals have not been made public, and -- >> the plans are not what the media has said, and it's what she's on record -- >> i am here to ask the question -- >> that's not what you just said. you said the media portrayed her with all of these leftist -- those are her own words. >> yeah, and i don't know if she's changing her mind and i don't know the answer. >> yeah, the question is which do you believe, right? i think it's very helpful to think about what she actually did, right? when she was in the senate she had the most liberal record in the senate, to the left of bernie sanders, and she was in favor of banning fracking and lined up perfectly with the far-left wing and when she had to make a choice for the vice

presidential nominee, she could have made a prudent choice, and shapiro would have sent a message from governing from the center, and she wouldn't do it. that tells you who is in control. she comes from the left wing of the party and that's where she will go. >> on the question of fracking and things like that, do you think ultimately it's disingenuous? >> at the end of the day, she will be beholden to the left wing of the party, and you can have a development of oil and gas without an explicit ban on fracking, and i don't buy the notion that she's actually a centrist now. she never has been. >> if it was the other way, you would say, of course, they are saying that now to get into office and once they are in office they go right back to walking and quacking with webbed feet and a bill.

if you are a walking and quacking duck, you are a duck and not a centrist. >> the truth is former president trump has flipped -- just saying. by the way, i don't think you even agree with me on this, but i look at trump's tariff policies and i say to myself, i think if he gets into office he will not pursue them, he will use them as a negotiating employ -- he will use them as a negotiating employ and not get there. >> but if you say she can't do certain things with the senate, trump can't do things with those in the house. >> i will sound like a broken record, but i think trump will try the tariffs, and his former trade rep, and he advocated for a universal 10% tax on imports, and trump believes this and has strongly held views, and the

question is does he have the legal authority to do it? i don't think so. if he tries to do it, will the senate stand up to that. >> biden didn't get rid -- >> he kept them all. he's been an extension of the trump trade policy. >> s rk iand then the used ev sales maets growing, and we will tell you the details about all of it right after the break. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. first! [continue bickering in background] hold on, guys! [car honk] first. today, we're first together. we love you, mom and dad. thank you so much for making it possible. and now you can finally put yourselves first. vanguard investments and advice. for college, retirement, and all of life's firsts. that's the value of ownership.

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let's say you're deep in a show or a game or the game. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? as ev sales continue to grow, thanks to a rising number of models that start at a lower price point, it's creating unusual dynamics for -- oh, my god, it says used electric miles. we have to get onboard, phil. they are preowned. you didn't write that, did you? everything is preowned now.

it's preowned clothing, not used. everything, but not underwear, right? >> only you and i could appreciate the movie "used cars." >> i don't know about that. >> yes, you do. was the judge in that one. we'll call it up some time. when you're talking about the electric vehicle market, yes, the prices have come down in terms of newer models. they're still north of $50,000. what has that done for the used market? it has made people say, i want an electric vehicle, i'm going used. look at the decline according to edmund's. in the second quarter of this year versus the previous year, down 20% when it comes to electric vehicles. a far bigger decline than with hybrid or ice models. a couple of things are impacting this. first of all, what you're looking at is that new ev sales, they continue to grow. there continues to be demand there. it's not growing as quickly as it was in the past, but up 11% compared to last year in the second quarter, and that's

expected to be about the pace of growth in the third quarter, as well. the issue is that you have more ev models for sale. so there's greater selection. that doesn't mean that you're going to see evs go back to the growth rate you saw last year, but you are giving consumers more choices. that's also pushing down prices of newer models and by extension, it's pushing down the prices of used models. when you look at the ev market share, this is still tesla's market. when you look at the united states. north of 50% market share. we'll get the q3 numbers here in early october. but most believe, it's probably going to stay relatively speaking in this range. tesla may fall below 50%. in terms of the quote/unquote big three, gm, ford, stellantis, all of them have slowed down their ev investments or ev development. that's what we saw in the second quarter, we've seen it continue in the third quarter. that is likely to continue over the next couple of years. adam jonas out with a note today

saying when you look at capex expenditures, you will continue to see almost -- not flat, but much lower capex in terms of evs over the next couple of years, specifically by the legacy automakers, as they pay for a lot of the big investments that they made in the early 2020, to 2023 time frame. that has come home now and you're seeing less capex expenditure, and definitely, a slowdown in the development and rollout of new evs. >> yep. >> had to happen. all right, phil, appreciate it. thanks. see you later. phil, did you know, i was in your hometown -- i was with you last night. i was stuck in chicago. did you hear about the radar stuff at newark? did you hear about that? the grounding of -- >> yes, i did hear about it. >> what the hell happened? >> i did. >> i was stuck. i thought -- it was radar technology, i almost called you. i almost called you to come over. >> i would have gotten on the phone immediately for the radar

problems. >> i would have come over to the airport and we could have talked over a few things, over at o'hare. >> all right. >> i was in the united club. >> there are worse places to be stuck. there are worse places to be stuck. >> all right. see you later. >> okay, coming up, it was a strong month for the nasdaq, up nearly 6%. what will september bring for tech stocks. we'll talk about it. gene munster will be with us after the prbreak. and later, a big month for the fed. we'll hear from loretta mester. all of that and more as "squawk box" rolls on after this. a longer and happier life. the farmer's dog makes weight management easy with fresh food pre-portioned for your dog's needs. it's an idea whose time has come. we're here for adama. just like she tries to be there for her children. always watching. loving. so when adama's eyes were failing her,

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welcome back to "squawk box." i want to take a look at the tech move from last beak with gene munster, deep water managing asset, managing partner. we've been on quite a wild ride when it comes to the "options action" and some of these tech stocks. there's a question about given where some of the big tech stocks are right now, whether you're a buyer, a seller, or a holder. >> andrew, i am a buyer here. i continue to believe we're in the first stage, this may be hard to wrap many heads around, first stage of a three to five-year bull market.

there is a headline in the "wall street journal" today talking about the market is really, really optimistic right now. and i believe we're still just beginning. that typically is a negative sign when you start to see headlines like that, but i do believe, andrew, that we'll continue this. and i think september will be just an important step towards that three to five-year bull market. we've got to course what's going to happen with apple next monday. this is the biggest event for apple over the past decade, i would say. second, i think there's going to be a changing view over what, over the next month, how investors view nvidia. and last, of course, we have tesla, the october 10th event. we'll get some anticipation around that. i think when you put those three kind of cornerstone elements tog together, i think you'll continue to see the tech trade move higher in the month of september. >> okay, gene, let's talk about those three names, though. let's start with apple. there is a view, i think, based on the 30% move in this stock since may, that there's going to

be a super cycle style buying pattern around the new phone. do you believe that this year is that? do you think it gets pushed out to next year, i ask, because it's not clear that all of the sort of ai functionality is going to be embedded in the phone and available this fall. >> so, it's going to be some bumps, some good, some bad over the first couple of quarters. but ultimately, i believe that that can go much higher. i think if you look at what happened with the iphone 6 a decade ago, it was up 12% -- excuse me, with the iphone 5. the iphone 6 was up 52%. it just absolutely ripped, andrew. so i think that this can certainly move higher. i think that, ultimately, you know, we're going to see this big upgrade cycle coming. and a question i would have for you, andrew, is do you believe that these features are going to be exciting enough to move it higher. >> i don't know. i'm somebody who oftentimes gets the new phone almost every year. just, i love the products, as

you know, and so i'm a geek when it comes to this tech. what i don't know is, i use chatgpt and other products like claude from anthropic and google's product, as well. and i can do that right now, using either their apps or going t to their websites. the question is, how integrated does it have to be into the os itself. and even if it is, it doesn't even sound like it's going to be fundamentally integrated in certain cases, right? >> the integration, ok, is going to get rolled over, over the next year. i just want to put some context. i mentioned that iphone 5 to iphone 6, that massive acceleration in growth rate. the reason why that's so important. the reason why the iphone 6 had that breath ttaking growth, it d a feature, the first larger screen that consumers really got excited about. in the case of these ai features, you are correct, it will take a year or so to roll out. but if they are as good as i believe, these will be features,

when consumers see them, they view them as must-have. i want to put quick context into the sensitivity around the numbers. the iphone upgrade cycle, it's a five-year upgrade cycle. if the cohort that is supposed to upgrade in calendar '26, call it a year out. if 10% of those decide to upgrade in calendar '25, that takes iphone growth to 15%. the street's currently looking at 7%. i asked the question about, how big are these features, how do you feel about them? i think consumers overwhelmingly are going to embrace these features. it may take a few quarters. but i think you'll see meaningful upside in apple over that period. >> i'm super excited about it, i just don't know if i'm representative of the common man. i like to think i am. separate question, nvidia. at this point in the pball game what inning are we in for them? >> i think we're in the third inning. and ultimately, i think that there was a misunderstanding of what happened with guidance. they guided up by 2.5% for the

october quarter. previously, when they guided for the july quarter, they dpided up 5%. there's this narrative about this deceleration. but keep in mind that blackwell slipped. they didn't use that language, but clearly, if you go back and look at the transcripts from two quarters ago to the july quarter, it slipped by three months. that's $3 billion. several billion. you factor that in, nvidia would have raised guidance by 12%, not 2.5%. i think this is still very early. we own nvidia at deepwater. we think that, you know it is still reasonably priced at 35 times and can grow faster than what the street thinks next year. and in 2026, ultimately, the risk for big companies not to invest in this is skjust too hi. nvidia will be a big beneficiary of that. >> gene, thank you. we'll talk more with tesla between now and october 10th, when we'll hear a lot more from them. thank you. >> thank you. it's just past 8:00 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on

cnbc. i'm joe kernan, along with andrew ross sorkin. i'm laughing. i responded to someone, andrew, see what you think. >> yeah? what have you responded to? >> andrew ross sorkin and joe squawk proudly touting their personal political biases this morning. so much for -- >> when were we doing that? >> i just said, first-time viewer? have you seen the show? don't we need to discuss these -- and i know, you don't, but -- this is part of our appeal. is it not? that there are -- it's -- it's 50/50 in the country. >> and we can have a dialogue about what's happening. absolutely. >> not necessarily want to kill each other. among the day's top stories, a panel of the supreme court -- first-time viewer, i guess, what, did you just tune in after you got off the turnip truck? voting to hold a suspension of

elon musk's "x" in the country. this stems from a fight over misinformation in the platform. meanwhile, brazil's telecom regulator now threatening to sanction musk's satellite broadband company, starlink. vice president kamala harris says u.s. steel should remain domestically owned rather than be bought by japan's nippon steel. harris made those comments yesterday in a rally in pittsburgh. they're in line with what president biden and former president trump has said. i think they should be allowed to buy the company, don't you? >> you disagree with both of them. don't you? >> i have mixed views. but, yes, i -- >> so we don't just -- >> i don't know what's going to happen long-term to our supply chain. that's the question. >> we can't all of a sudden -- >> i'm not doing it for the unions -- >> this is like a corporate wall we're putting, not even a southern border wall we're putting around a company. don't you think, if we want to buy something over there, somewhere, don't you think we should be able to do it --

>> that's the issue given who the owner would be. >> and there's comparative advantage. we can't do everything here -- we do certain things here, because of -- look, i would like to have a lot of things opened, but we've closed a lot of things down. >> you sounded like him just now. >> i did. >> you felt it! >> i heard it. >> we're talking china! >> we felt it. >> we've closed a lot of things, joe. i can't believe it. >> take a look at the futures this morning -- i did hear that. dow jones off 232 points. the nasdaq off as well right now, 140 points. the s&p 500 off about 33 points. treasuries right now, take a look at what's going on here, folks, you're looking at the ten-year note at 3.913. and also, by the way, same thing, virtually on the two-year note, 3.931. what does that say? you know who we're going to ask? mike santoli down at the new york stock exchange. what are you watching this morning? >> watching that down move in the kt fequity futures, which t

looks like reverting back to where we were around 37:00 p.m. on friday. there was this month-end buying bing that accounted for meaore than half a percent, we'll see if that settles out and meant anything. the longer-term chart, it looks pretty good. up to that mid-july high. at the highs of last week, we peaked a quarter percent below there. whether that's significant or not as a barrier, you have to see, but we've mostly recovered from that correction. the composition of the market, as we've been discussing for a week or two, has been very different. take a look at a six-month chart of the nasdaq 100. that's magnificent 7 plus. and the equal-weighted russell 1,000. that's basically, you know, the all large cap equal-weighted. they're neck and neck. you see this down move in the nasdaq 100, as well as that commensurate up move in the equal-weighted russell 1000. when does that date to? the date of the june cpi report that was very benign.

everyone basically said, inflation is taken care of. we're going to get a fed ease. let's see if that's enough to get the broader list of stocks working. so far, so good. earnings have mostly supported that view as well. take a look at the seasonal patterns. going to hear a lot about this. september off in a tough month. often, maybe, around the middle of the month. this is the cycle composite. basically, the typical year, so to speak, if it were 2024, conforming to seasonal patterns, presidential election year patterns, and even there's a ten-year pattern for years ending in '4. don't ask. it's not a guide, but definitely a broad context for how things move. actually, over the last year plus, it's worked pretty well. we had tough august/september last year. big fourth quarter rally, we did have a springtime dip this year, as it would suggest. so you see chopping lower through the end of october, as many have said. and then finishing strong. that would be textbook. don't worry about the percentages. we're obviously up much more than that. it's much more about the rhythms

seasonally, guys. >> okay, mike, we can get a few economic releases, as you know, later this week. is good news for the economy, and this is the question, good for stocks or do you genuinely feel that this sort of good news/bad news situation, dynamic, exists where investors actually would oddly support or want weaker numbers to capture the idea that the fed would ease more. >> i think good news for the economy, big picture, is still positive for the stock market. mostly because we've decided that inflation is no longer, you know, the public enemy number one at the moment. the fed's going to ease. it's just a matter of how much. and i don't think you'd want the circumstances under which the fed eases more, we're much more sensitive to potential growth slowdown than we are to flare-up in inflation. everyone says, oh, the stock market is pricing at 100 points of easing this year. i don't think the stock market necessarily is, that's what the bond markets say. but remains to be seen. we are at a high. we'll see if we have any excuse to pull back a little bit.

>> appreciate it. talk to you soon. >> joining us now, amy wu silverman. always like to have you on, because we really get in the weeds here. we're all the way back down to '15, '16 on the vix. we've made the round trip from the growth scare from six weeks ago. you point out, while the vix has accustomed down, there's other things that have not yet, which, i don't know -- that sounds exciting, because something might happen, i guess. >> yeah, you know, i like to kind of analogize it to folks who have been on the plane, altitude has stabilized, right? but no one has forgotten that turbulence. our seat belts are still buckled and those secondary factors that we like to talk a lot about in derivatives, so you're hedging demand, your volatility of the vix itself, they have not come in the way headline vix has round-tripped. and to me stthat stickiness is related to the fact there's still a lot of nervousness. that's a big narrative shift from what we saw in the first half of this year. >> and we had a chance to talk a

little bit earlier. and if there were to be another -- so you think that this could or tend another rise in the vix. maybe not to the same teextent saw six weeks ago, but maybe we see something seasonally, it tends to do that in the next month or two? >> that's right. when you look back 20 years, we split it up by month. september and october, these are times when the market tends to draw down. and it's time when the vix tends to rise about 10% each month. the interesting thing is november, usually, you get a decline in vix, but this year we have the u.s. elections. a big major event that can keep things even more inflated. and even out of seasonal factors, we're finally starting to see that tailwind that we got from the nvidias, from the ai story, that's been flagging for a while. so you're not seeing that upside call demand anymore, which was bo bowing the market on our side. and you're starting to see that demand pickup.

a lot of times you talk about when the music is going to stop. you're getting more of those signals now than you ever have been in the first half of this year. >> what could be amazing about the technicals is that we can try to guess what the backdrop for the move -- technicals indicate something is going to happen, but we don't know fundamentally what it is. so i ask you, would it be a growth scare, like six weeks ago, or would it be reignited inflation scare? >> look, the answer could be anything, right? but when you kind of look to what has triggered these volatility potholes in the past two years, it's been more of the former. and that narrative shift, obviously, comes down to data points. for instance, when we look at the nftp price data points, you see that at the money straddle. that volatility for just that event, as incredibly high. and it's essentially the options market telling you that these data points are more critical than they ever have been.

and that could really change -- >> does it tell you growth -- it doesn't tell you either one. people are on both, they're betting on either. >> that's why it could be both. but when you look to where the market's has the most drawdown and the more volatility spice, it's been usually growth related. and we can essentially see that in how you think about sectors. so the sector breakdown volatilities tend to give you that flag more than you would on something else. >> so we have a jobs number coming. you're saying that if you are a betting person, you would -- you would think that the worry is it could be weaker? it could be like the one we had in july? because tom lee was just on. he thought that -- he's more concerned about a hot inflation -- too good of a jobs report. >> it's tricky. the way we think about it is not necessarily direction, but magnitude. and meaning, what we can do is say, look, this event is pricing, is having much more magnitude than it historically has. but unfortunately, we couldn't

tell you direction. i wish i could. but the reason the magnitude matters is when it's being underpriced by the market, but the options market actually thinks that that magnitude is more important, that's when you get that volatility, like six weeks ago, that was relatively unexpected. it's that magnitude being mispriced relative to what the market thinks it could be. >> well, yeah, tom said, what, seven out of eight months, we've been up. so, it could be that in this seasonally weak period, leading into like october, we always make lows in october. and what is it? september just started. all right, amy, a lot to chew on, thank you. >> thank you. >> when we come back, former sec chair jake clayton will join us, talk about so many different issues this morning. a lot of different topics in focus. in backlash by some companies against corporate dei programs taking place with the two presidential candidates and their economic plans. also, elon musk's big feud with brazil. we'll get into all of it. as we head to a break, check out

shares of boeing. wells fargo downgrading the aircraft maker to underweight from equal weight. also cutting its price target to $119 from $185. that suggests the stock could drop more than 30% over the next year. don't go anywhere. we're coming right back. the future is not just going to happen.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the futures right now continue to show some weakness after a nice day on friday and as tom lee pointed out, we've been up almost every month. one down month out of the last eight or so. who knows what the future holds. none of us can tell, we have an election coming up. jobs report on friday. and we just had an options person, a straddle means that you can -- it costs a lot to hedge either way. so it could be something good, could be something bad, but something is coming. >> something is coming. and there's an election

coming. our next guest is here to talk about so many different issues, including the presidential candidates' economic plans. also, the anti-dei backlash taking place by four u.s. companies. four companies said they'll be scaling back some of those efforts. also want to get into elon musk and what's taken place in brazil over the weekend. and if you indulge me, where i want to start talking about the economic plans is a video that went viral last week, where joe and becky had an opportunity to interview elizabeth warren about unrealized tax gains and that has caused a lot of consternations on all sides. >> well, this is one of the worst tax ideas that's floating around. and it's one of the worst tax ideas, not in the abstract, not in the academic halls, but in america where we have had a different dinism.

the fly wheel of capital and talent and technology, that is driven by our taxes. by the willingness of americans to take after-tax dollars and invest them in risky ventures that may not pay off for years. >> as you know -- >> there's more -- >> we don't disagree about this issue as it relates to unrealized tax gains. >> do people think there's a technology fairy? >> no, but my question to you then is, assuming we're not going to do that. and one of the reasons that that's even put forth is a view that if you don't put something on the table that's taxing those gains annually like this, and if you were to put something out there that said that you can capture the gains later, that potentially a different party, a republican party or something else would get into power later, undo whatever the policies were, to capture the gains properly in the future, and therefore, you would actually never capture any taxes. my question to you is, how do you feel, for example, about --

>> that's such an ivory tower -- >> no, no, there's a practical reality to it, which is, we haven't dealt with those folks who take loans, as you know, against their unrealized gains, skp and effectively have those gains. should that be taxed, for example? >> something like that, someone says, i'll take a loan and i'm bringing forward my realization of those gains. i'm very happy to look at that. that's a very narrow issue. >> okay. >> that's a discussion -- >> how would you feel about dealing with step up at death? no -- all of these things have a huge implication on the system, which is to say, if you dealt with step up at death, if you dealt with this loan issue, you take both the -- you take the incentive away for those things to happen, and therefore, those things would get taxed in a way that are somewhat considered proper. if you dealt with carried interest -- i'm saying, there are low-hanging fruit here --

>> but carried interest, we're talking about something that scores at $40 billion over ten years. >> and therefore you wouldn't do it? >> no, no, i'm just saying those discussions i'm happy to have. this idea that we're going to take this fundamental uniquely american system, the one that has lifted the entire world out of the covid malaise, because of technology, because of our investments in energy, we're pumping 40% more gas than we did when trump took office. we're pumping a third more oil. which you know why? because we invest in the technology to make that happen. >> here's the issue. the reason why that proposal, this unrealized gain proposal, has any oxygen at all, i would argue to you, and as you know, i don't subscribe to that policy. the reason it has any oxygen is because the republican party has not provided any oxygen to the low-hanging fruit issues. the step up at death, the issues around taking those loans. the issues around carried interest. if those issues were taken off the table, we wouldn't even be having these conversations.

>> i don't believe that for a second. this is all about pandering to the idea that the wealthy don't pay their fair share. that's how this is cast. >> you'll never get enough. >> let me give you -- two other things that bother me about this that you're not hearing, this incentivizes the government to create inflation. if you're going to tax the gain in a price -- prices go up when inflation goes up. >> smart point. >> so the government is incented to increase prices -- and look, if something goes from $100 to $200 because of inflation, you haven't gained anything. but you're going to pay the government that $40 -- >> the real viral nature of that discussion wasn't so much on the unrealized gains, it was on price controls. and just the notion -- >> joe, that's my other point. what are price controls? they're the government setting prices. when you're taxing unrealize ds gains, who decides the price? we have a market price in the market, but -- >> immediately -- >> the government does.

because of the backlash from the right and left, they immediately attack to say it's not about price controls, it's an anti-gouging -- >> that was nonsense. >> but what it really was, was a way to try to deflect what caused the inflation. and you can say, it was the pandemic, and reopening, you can say whatever you want. but there was definitely some fire -- or some vfuel thrown on the post -pandemic environment from the -- >> and i heard your interview with elizabeth warren, which was fantastic. one of the things she always fails to recognize, markets are more kpcompetitive today than ty ever have been because of the ability to look at prices. on the internet, on my phone, i can look at the five gas stations within 30 miles and go to the lowest cost one. >> very interesting, and i agree when it comes to gas stations, but i don't agree in the same way about supermarkets. i'm curious where you land on

that. because the super market space is becoming increasingly consolidated. there's a real question to what the pricing that's happening really is. there's been a lot of idiosyncratic issues joe brought up with elizabeth warren -- the real issues around egg pricing and other things. but having said that, the consolidation of the stores themselves has made it pricing, a more complicated topic -- >> for supermarkets -- no, you've got walmart and amazon but. kroger and albertson's, that's not where the problem is. >> that's the question. >> and the costcos -- >> we shop at the costco in brooklyn. it's an unbelievable -- the amount of volume that gets driven through there, therefore driving prices lower and the amount of people who are there shopping, you know, it is remarkable. i looked at the inflation around grocery stores pre-pandemic. prices were coming down.

>> if you enforce monopoly laws and antitrust laws, doesn't the market take care of someone trying to gouge? >> that's what -- and the question is -- >> -- immediately -- >> -- where they are -- >> -- can't see prices? education. education is the -- >> education. health care. we can go through the list. >> they're the ones where government is involved. >> instead of trying to say, bacon in new york costs this, bacon in the midwest costs this, we'll put a cap -- instead of doing that, just mind your ps and qs on the anti-trust stuff. >> i've got a tough one for you. >> okay? >> private equity rolling up a lot of doctor's offices around the country. and the pricing -- and that has done to pricing in this country. you think it's a good idea, bad idea? you obviously are a chair at apollo. >> rollup conditions really good, because you can achieve efficiencies. if they're shopping -- an area where i agree with elizabeth warren is, do we have a competitive market? most markets in america are more competitive than ever were. health care is not one of them.

health care pricing is incredibly opaque, it's difficult to understand, and the consumer doesn't have the incentives to shop. those are all problems that we have created for ourselves in the way we structure health care. >> let's touch on two other topics. e elon musk over the weekend as it relates to this issue in brazil and how it relates to free speech. as someone in your position, i'm curious about his position with "x" and star link and some people are looking at these different positions. in china, turkey, where the law may be very clear, he says, i'm abiding by that. in brazil, he believes the law is different. he actually believes that free speech exists in brazil, and that's why he's taking this on. but what does it do, for example, if you're a private equity firm, do you say, i want to do business now in brazil, i don't want to do business in brazil. what's the -- >> look, we've had a lot of conversations about elon musk. elon musk, let's just recognize, he has a special place in the

global economy. he can convene, he can communicate. he is in the most dynamic industries, you know, including this industry. >> right. >> i think what elon musk does and how much it affects others is probably pretty limited due to his idiosyncratic nature. but i -- you know, i've had my disagreements with him. >> right. >> what he's doing right now, fabulous. i mean, this is -- this is a fight that most companies -- most companies would not take this fight on. >> i know we're going over time, but let me just ask one related questions on this dei front, which you've seen both on the corporate side, a reduction of these dei infrastructure or the dei complex is coming undone. by the way, you've seen it as it relates to the supreme court coming undone in the world of education and you've seen some of the implications there, just last week, we've heard about the number of black students who have been going to places like tufts and other places. what do you think the long-term

implication for all of this? >> i don't think we should say all things of dei are wrong. what do i think happened? the dei became separate from the mission of the organization. it became something unto itself. diversity is really important, inclusion, opportunity. we started with capital gains tax. capital gains tax is about opportunity in america. it's about driving dynamism. when organizations incorporate those ideas in their own north stars, it works. when they do it separately, not so much. >> i have a lot of empathy for deis, because in mainstream media, i consider myself to be a complete dei hire. >> from a -- as a -- how you think? >> yes. >> jay clayton, thank you. >> and i worry about it every

day. i hope i can stay. i hope i can stay. coming up -- can i? coming up, we're going to get you up to speed on that contract dispute between disney and directv. it cost viewers access to some high-profile sporting events this past weekend. and later this hour, florida congressman byron donalds will join us to talk about the latest news from the campaign trail, with just over two mutines to go before election day. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options

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there are some unhappy directv customers this weekend when key channels went dark. julia boorstin joins us now with the latest. it's pretty good weekend for sports. i feel their pain. >> it was a busy weekend for sports, indeed. in the middle of the u.s. open, ahead of sunday night's college football game and before the nfl's season opener this week,

disney pulled its abc stations espn and other cable networks from directv's more than 11 million satellite subscribers. their contract dispute speaks to the media giant's growing focus on streaming and the online -- the ongoing decline of the paid tv ecosystem. distributors wanting to be able to offer their customers smaller bundles, while the media giants want to secure pay increase, while they pay more for content including sports. directv, which is pushing to access for a smaller bundle of channels says, quote, disney is again taking an anti-consumer approach, demanding that customers from directv and other tv distributors be forced to pay for channels they don't watch. and demanding directv customers pay for access for disney-owned streaming services they either aren't interested in or may already possess. directv also saying that disney has demanded that dtv waive any future claims that disney's behavior is anti-competitive. meanwhile, disney, which says that directv sought unreasonable discounts, saying, quote, while

we're open to offering directv flexi flexibility and terms which we've extended to other distributors, we will not enter into an agreement that undervalues our portfolio of television channels and programs. now, coming up in money movers, i will be interviewing espn chairperson jimmy pitaro. and there is a directv investor call that's happening at the 11:00 a.m. eastern hour. joe, the nfl season kicks off thursday night, so the pressure is on to get this deal done. >> yep. and, not a minute too soon. it seems like it just ended. we just saw that great super bowl. but we're ready for it to come back, i think. as we can tell from how great college -- how great those games have been so far, julia. but didn't it go fast? didn't it seem like we were just doing the super bowl, weren't we? >> the summer does go fast. but i think, joe, what we're really speaking to here, is that live sports, this is the content that is really so essential for

the paid tv bundle, so essential for what people are willing to pay for, when it comes to live tv. we saw peacock, and the excitement around the olympics draw so much viewership to peacock, and pursuant company, comcast, nbc universal. and i think when you think about espn and monday night football and the importance of those football rights and the football viewership, this is going to be a very tense negotiation on both sides. with a lot of frustrated viewers ready to watch. >> who's your team? >> i'm here in l.a.! >> well, there are about 12 teams in l.a. which one? >> no, i'm -- you've got to go with the sofi stadium, you've got to go with the rams. this is my home team. >> i figured that's what you would say. not compared to what they did to me a couple of years ago and the bengals. they didn't think about that even for a second. and how much that still hurts. that is a really cool place. >> it's an awesome place. >> it is.

julia, thank you. okay, coming up, what investors and economists should keep in mind during the countdown to friday's all-important august jobs report. former cleveland fed president ho loretta mester will join us. whether good news is good news, or bad news is good news or bad news is bad news, right after this.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're counting down to the august jobs report this friday, barring a huge surprise, it's expected to help confirm a fed rate cut later this month. the question, of course, is how p big could that cut be? joining us is loretta mester, an adjunct professor of finance at the pennsylvania school of finance, also a cnbc contributor. great to see you this morning. >> great to see you. >> before we get into it, what is your expectation on what we're going to be hearing on friday when it comes to jobs and where you think the fed is going to go with this next? >> yeah, the jobs report will be an important piece of the puzzle, in determining what the fed is going to do at the september meeting. i don't think there's any question that the fed's ready to start the easing cycle. i think they will have a discussion about whether they want to start with a 25 basis point move or a 50 basis point

move. but more importantly, even than the first cut, is sort of the path of rate cuts coming after this. and we're going to get information from the fed on that. because we're going to have new summer of economic projections. i think that's going to be one of the key pieces of information coming out of the meeting. the jobs report. you know, we know the job market has been moderating. and i use that word, moderation, as opposed to weakening, because, remember, the job market has been quite tough. we've seen this loosening in conditions. the chair coming out of jackson hole said that he wanted to not go much weaker than where they are now. in terms of the job market. and i think that's why there's been this real focus on that upcoming report. but remember, the fed looks at all of the data coming out, not just one report. >> so, let's just talk about this friday. there is a sense that, you know, is good news going to be good news? if the news is too good, is it actually bad news? because then the fed maybe won't

cut as much as people had anticipated. put us inside the room. i mean, look, the fed wants to have strong labor markets. and so from the point of view of the fmoc and their focus on maximum employment and price stability, having a good, solid jobs report is a good thing for the committee. i don't think there's any question about that. but they also recognize that, you know, inflation has been coming down. and it's time to start moving the interest rate, the nominal fed funds rate, their policy rate down, as inflation and short-term inflation expectations move down. otherwise, you're actually inadvertently tightening policy, and that's not what the economy is calling for now. i think they'll want to see that labor markets remain healthy, as one of the pieces of, okay, we can now start this tightening cycle and we will be able to kind of move the rate down with the economy, telling us how quickly we need to move it down in order to maintain those

healthy labor markets. from the fmoc's point of view and from the economy's point of view, you want to see a good labor market report coming out this friday. that's not going to change people's minds on, you know, whether to start cutting. the chair was very clear, very, extremely clear in jackson hole that the committee is ready to do that. i think the question in the room will be, do you start out with a 50 or a 25? and i think they won't really determine that going in until it gets closer to the time. >> loretta, what do you make of just -- i know you're not an equities person, but of the move in the equity market -- "the wall street journal" has a piece out this morning, just talk about all of the new 401(k) millionaires and folks who have made a lot of money during this period, and how much that, in terms of the wealth effect and other things, that impacts the way the fed thinks. >> well, no, the fed does look at financial conditions and one part of that condition is what's going on in the equity markets. because we do see a wealth effect in the economy. but again, it's one of the pieces of financial conditions

that it looks at. it doesn't sort of focus only on what's going on with stock markets. it looks broadly. and financial conditions have been, you know, tight over this whole cycle, as the fed has raised its policy rate. at different times, up and down. some of the indices are saying that things are back to neutral in terms of those financial conditions indices now. so that's one piece of the information the fed looks at, certainly, but it's not a focus on sort of targeting the financial markets. it looks at it in terms of -- or financial conditions too tight to support healthy labor markets and a return fully to 2% inflation. >> if, in fact, the fed does lower rates, and i think whether it's 25 basis points or 50 basis points, i imagine there's going to be finger pointing in the political world about what the fed is doing independent of the fed, if they're trying to encourage one candidate to win over the other. in this case, i could see someone like former president trump suggesting that this is an

effort to make former -- or it's an effort to make the vice president the president. i know the fed likes to say that that doesn't way on anything, but you think it even weighs -- the distinction between a 25 basis point cut and a 50 basis point cut? >> honestly, i really don't think it does. i think they have to do what they always do, which is look at the economy, look at where it's going, look at its policy rate to see that it's, you know, aligned with where the economy is going. and the achievement of its dual mandate goals. politics doesn't enter the room. they're going to look at this from the point of view of the economy. what is the economy telling us? that the fed needs to do with policy to get it aligned so that it can fully reach 2% inflation, at the same time maintaining healthy labor markets? and there's going to be criticism on whatever they do. and they take that in stride and know that's going to be what it is, but that's part of the environment and they have to focus on -- like, stick to the

knitting. they have to focus on doing what they can do with their policy tools to achieve the dual mandate that congress gave it. that's what they'll be focused on in that room. >> loretta mester, thank you for joining us this morning. great to see you. >> thanks, andrew. coming up next, florida congressman byron donalds is going to join us to talk about the state of the race for president and get into the candidacy' emerging economic plans. as we head to break, take a look at where cryptocurrencies are trading. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. - so this is pickleball? - pickle! ah, these guys are intense. with e*trade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right?

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it's about two months to go now before the presidential election. we're getting a little bit more insight into the candidates' economic thinking. yesterday, vice president harris said u.s. steel should remain domestically owned and not sold

to japan's nippon steel. that echos president biden as well as former president trump. joining us now on the two candidates' plans -- former -- sorry, not former, florida congressman -- almost former, because you were close to being a veep pick, congressman byron donalds, serves on the house financial services committee. if i were to try to punch some holes in the narrative that the trump narrative or just the election narrative, i think both candidates could use a little bit of maybe classic conservatism or free market thinking. like, they're together on this one, too, congressman, on blocking an acquisition by a foreign company of a domestic company. we want to be able to buy companies abroad, don't we? do we want to shut off that ability for foreign companies to be able to buy assets here? >> we do want to be able to take advantage of buying the

necessary assets across the world. i think that's important. the bigger question is, are we sure kamala harris believes this, or did she just look on donald trump's quiz notes and decide that she wanted to take this one too. because honestly, we have not really seen a coherent economic policy coming from kamala harris. we've seen very progressive ideas from the bernie sanders wing, and then she tries to take more populist ideas from donald trump, because she's trying to find a way to get to the middle when it comes to economics. but if you look at their two economic visions, it is pretty clear the contrast that under an economic policy regime of donald trump, you would have a more booming economy. you have stabilized prices, and those are the two things that you need for the american people to get ahead. i do think that when you're talking about various companies that might exist here domestically or around the globe, i think it's important for us to be able to take advantage of those, for individual companies to take advantage of those. i don't think that's really the

government's role to get too deep into that. but that being said, there is a stark contrast between kamala harris and donald trump. we know what a donald trump economy looks like. we've already lived under one. it was a fabulous thing. >> side-isms, which we use a lot, but with certain of kamala harris' viewpoints, and they say, oh, no, no, that would never happen, but i see republicans say the same thing with the 10% across the board tariffs that president trump -- oh, no, no. that's not going to happen, but do you think that should happen? and i guess one of his key advisers really has posited that that would be something that -- that another trump administration would try to do. does it make sense or -- if you cut taxes and put 10% tariffs on it, the deficit is going to explode again even more so. >> well, it depends on how

you're going to frame it, and everything comes down to the devil in the details. i dpgot the look at that personally. it's not something i've looked at, but i know the president is talking about it. let me just say this. i think that where we are financially as a country, we have to be willing to look at the entire structure of how the government raises revenue, of how the government spends revenue, so if you are going to look at tariff policy in exchange of tax policy, let's have a full examination of that, simply because you and i both know the national deficit this year is around $2 trillion. it's not like the way the nation has managed its finances whether it's tax policy or anything else has really been hitting or batting 1,000. it has not been doing that. the nation's credit card has been a mess for quite some time. it continues to get worse. so there's going to have to be some serious thinking, some of it outside the box in the ways that we're going to get this thing back under control, while at the same time, not disturbing

the economic power of the american people to live their lives and chase the american dream. if you are going to ask me who do i want to actually have more wide open thoughts around that? it's definitely donald trump over kamala harris. >> right, but it just seems like both parties have been sort of infected with the populism, a virus at that point, and do you -- let me ask you, congressman. do you think that foreign countries pay the tariffs, or do you think that people in the united states pay the tariffs? how about another one? do you think we should not even be talking about medicare and social security and entitlement reform and both parties should be running away from that and saying, oh, no, not, me, and not me, and neither should touch the third rail? do you see what i'm saying? neither party is offering honest answers to some of these things. >> well, when it comes to the second half of your question, medicare and social security,

they're probably more than likely, because they both go in solvent over the next nine years, there's going to have to be some modest adjustments to that. the question will be, who is going to preserve the current program while being able to stabilize those programs for the long-term fiscal outlook of the country? the democrats raid those programs through the back door while they save they're trying to save them. so it's a matter of trust. who do you think is going to do a better job with those programs? i believe it's donald trump. >> how about the tariffs? >> when you talk about that -- >> who pays those? >> i was going come to that. >> okay. >> it's actually in part, yes, people here in the united states when koit comes to goods and services, but it's also foreign nations because they don't have access or the access they wanted to have to our markets, and because so much is manufactured outside of the united states, having foreign nations have to actually come to a level playing field when it comes to trade, to

access our markets, that actually is why in some respects, donald trump's tariff policy has been a good thing across the board because you need these other countries to play fair. they have not played fair with us in part because people who have been in our government, namely democrats who have been in these government positions for many decades do not actually hold our trade policy accountable. which way do you go? >> i'm sorry. i just got to ask you one more thing. i like having you on a lot, congressman, but so at this point, some of the betting sites have flipped again, that there was really no bounce from the dnc. maybe a widening for women in terms of who supports vice president harris at this point, but do you think that president trump can stay on message? i saw him tweet something -- i

guess -- i think it was a tweet. it wasn't truth social about going back to relitigating 2020 again. he's got a candidate that's talking about taxing unreal -- the capital gains, and she's said so many things that if you just stick to that, do you think he will be able to i guess litigate this campaign in a sensible way and not, you know, snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again? >> well, i'll tell you. just the most frustrating thing about this campaign cycle is that donald trump is talking about every issue, not just the top three in polling. he talks about it all. he engages in it all. he's demonstrating -- >> he talks 25020, congressman. >> if he did the other day, it's the first i've heard him talk about it probably in six months, but you're dealing with a person in kamala harris who won't talk to anybody. you saw her the other day go

into air force two. she had the ear buds in with the cord. who even uses that anymore? it's all theatrics from kamala harris. she talks about nothing, and donald trump does talk about everything, but most of the time -- the vast majority, he's focused on the issues and i think you're going to continue to see that. >> okay. >> at the end of the day, the american people have to decide. do you want the strong economy and safe borders and safe world of donald trump or do you want the economic and foreign policy and border policy chaoses of kamala harris? that's what this election comes down to. >> i do like having you on. i appreciate it. thank you. oy.ha y. >>ka we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." on this tuesday morning ahead of the market open, still a half an hour to go as folks are getting ready, as school begins around the country in so many places. the dow off about 255 points. the nasdaq looked to open down about 157 points. the s&p 500 off by 36 points. treasury yields as well. right now you're looking at

3.884, and we'll show you oil and let's also show you cryptocurrencies if we could, but oil, wti crude will cost you $72.10 by the barrel, down about 2%. we've got the big jobs number coming up on friday. a lot of data in between, joe. >> day tomorrow. >> join us then. "squawk on the street" begins now. good tuesday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer. braces for a busy week with jobs friday. eyes on the historically treacherous month of september. our road. begins with this first trading day of the month. the dow touching its 26th record close of the year. elliott now holds 10% of southwest common allowing the company to call a special meeting at the