interact with the media and talk with journalists. >> here we are, interacting with us. >> we appreciate it. >> we appreciate it. thank you for your service. >> thank you. we really appreciate it. >> thank you very much. >> it's great to see you here, and we'll continue this conversation after. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. that does it for us today, everybody. thank you for joining us, and we'll be back here tomorrow. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street." bye. ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." david faber has the morning off. premarkets have been soggy as the focus shifts to the back row. adp with a big miss, first sub-100 print in nearly three years. yields lower across the board as the odds of a half-point fed cut gets more traction. nvidia's under a bit of pressure again. the company denying reports that it received that subpoena from doj. the vice president proposing a 28% tax on long-term capital

gains, lower than the president's 40%. mark cuban calls in to "squawk" today saying harris is pro-business. and the steel deal in danger. the biden white house reportedly planning to block nippon steel's deal for u.s. steel. first, let's get to the markets and adp and productivity and unit labor costs. a lot today. >> there's a whole new thesis going on in the market, and it started with nvidia's conference call, and it shouldn't have, which is that when we now see any weak numbers, we sell the semis. and we sell tech. i have caterpillar on tonight. caterpillar holds up better than the semis. i saw nvidia. i saw broadcom, which reports tonight, drop very quickly when we had that weak adp, and how this is happening is beyond me because these companies trade on inventory. they don't trade on gdp, but it doesn't matter. right now, if you have something negative about the economy, it goes right to the semis, and to

computing in general. >> you've been writing and talking all week about buildouts in general and capex and infrastructure, and when you have j.o.l.t.s. show cycle lows for construction, that says something. >> we're getting the right reasons to cut if you're the fed. i don't know about a double cut, about 50. there is a growing perception that intel is doing so poorly. they're cutting back cap spending. maybe that's the reason why we're seeing asml, besides just worry about china, downgraded from top pick at morgan stanley and of course they replace it with arm, which does the opposite. they're a taker, not a giver, when it comes to some upside, and i do think that what's happened here is that people are beginning to recognize intel is a giant problem for the economy and for the u.s. government. >> so, when you couple that and dollar tree earnings and this last bls and the revisions and

pmi and now today's data, why don't you think 50 is appropriate? >> by the way, well, solantis, good piece in the "journal" saying chrysler doing so poorly. powell is a measured person. he can do 25 and 25 and 25. 50 implies panic. 50 implies that you don't have any good news, which there's still some good news, and i think that 50's just too much. it's just -- it says, you know what, we took it way too high, and that will be the narrative. wow, they screwed up, they took it way too high. the only way to win if you're powell is to say, we've got it under control. >> isn't that, we've got it under control, what got them into trouble when things were going the other way? >> i think that they did a mea culpa, which you've got to appreciate. i do think that the number we see tomorrow will make everything much easier, and anything you say today can obviously be countercommanded b tomorrow. maybe he comments on nvidia. just kidding.

i mean, look, how's nvidia doing? nvidia is now -- i thought that yesterday it would have passpeaked because it seemed like we were focused on other things, but no. when you see it on the ticker in the morning, and you see that it just trades down every piece of weak news, you realize that it's become memed. it's almost memed. the stock's like gamestop right now, and geez, that's undeserving. it's a real company, a trillion dollar company. >> you were on air when we got word from the company. >> that was me not me. i said that last night to my wife. i said, i broke this big story. she said, no, they called you, and you went on air. i said, give me a break. this is something -- yes, i want people at home to know that what happens is the company issues a release, you get it first, and you come on air, and scott wapner's show, scott and mike had me on and i just thing what happened here is that there is a sense that as aggressive as this justice department may be, maybe they're not that aggressive.

and i do think that one of the things that i don't want to jump justice department in with a lot of other things we're hearing about the harris transition from biden, but there is a sense of more pro business. i think justice cannot be influenced by that, but you come back, listen to mark cuban this morning, and you start seeing speeches given in new hampshire that indicate that, wait a second, maybe we're a little less tough on business and rich people than biden, and you start saying to yourself, i don't know, everything seems to be a little more pro business from this administration right now. everything. >> it's interesting. since you brought it up, cuban was on with andrew and becky this morning. he did call harris pro business, said she's talking more about entrepreneurs and their access to investment than any candidate he's heard. take a listen. >> if you've ever taken over a company that was floundering, let's say the ceo got fired and you had to step in, it takes a lot more than the 40 days that she's been in this position to turn things around.

it's not like we've heard the starbucks new ceo come out with every plan, you know, and said everything that they're going to do. it takes time to pull these pieces together, to go from zero to 100 miles an hour is not easy. so, that's first and foremost and most important. >> he's referring now to this compressed cycle that we have. >> right. >> where we're in a month where early and absentee voting the beginning already. >> we're reading lots of shifting. i'm not a political guy, but i have said from the beginning that as soon as i heard that ms. harris was the nominee, i turned to tony west, who is the general counsel at -- he's general counsel of, you know, i mean, of uber. i mean, uber's like the premier tech company. think about -- thinking about the arc of uber. it was really the first one. it was the one that actually came to profitability. we know that travis story, i

think there isn't a more quintessential california tech company than uber, and here he comes, he's general counsel, he was at pepsico, and he was at justice, so his whole arc is one of justice, to quote the great martin luther king, i don't mean to minimize, but i think tony west is an amazing man. >> you brought him up literally the first day we thought she would be a potential favorite nominee. >> well, you get these icons from what we do, and i looked at the uber team, and i said, wait a second. these -- this has gone from infant to adult big-time, why? because it's dara khosrowshahi and tony west. services may be her most important ally when it comes to business, and i think anyone that thinks that tony west is anything other than pragmatic has not talked to him, doesn't realize his job of trying to represent an industry, not just a company, and that's whom i rely on as the litmus, as the barometer, because biden had no one like that. maybe gina raimondo as commerce

secretary but no inner circle person. you hear from business all the time, biden doesn't take my call, unless it's a certain part of health care. >> so does a 28% rate interest you? >> yes. cap gains is for rich people. i like to cut to the chase. >> it's not 40%. it's not 39%. >> it's almost as if biden put out the straw man of a very high number and suddenly we've got a vice president who says, wait a second, that's a really high number. >> another version of upod. >> yes. it was underpromise and overdeliver. i look at what's going on, and i think, well, they have figured out the media. they have figured out that we can very quickly glom on to something like capital gains, make it look a little better. of course, the stuff has to go through congress, but i remember in a sweep, you're looking at different from what we see right now. i always feel -- what i know about is that capital gains is

the -- the dominion of the rich. if you say that you're going to cut it from where biden is, you're perceived as being more moderate. more moderate seems to be one of their big issues. >> there's cap gains. there's corporate and buyback excise and now goldman put some numbers of corporate. every percentage point that moves, they say, moves about two bucks of next year's s&p earnings. that's kostin this morning. >> david is the best, but remember, we're looking at what stocks are upgraded and downgraded and if every single stock has the same problem, you're not going to get anything from wall street. i think, yeah, sure, profitability is reduced so maybe you should pay a lower multiple on the s&p 500, but i'm not buying that. i just think, again, these taxes, very difficult unless you have that sweep in congress. there's always someone wanting to block another. >> yeah, but it's a good reminder that this tax code is

going to get rewritten either way and it's going to happen in the next six months, let's say. >> i think one of the reasons why september's so difficult is every day, we've got something new. as soon as i saw the capital gains thing, i said, people are going to buy stocks, but then they didn't. today, it's front and center, maybe they do. i find the narrative is much more driven by harris than by trump right now. you used to hear about trump's plans all the time, and he does have this economic statement today. maybe that will clarify where he is, but i do think that when you see capital gains, what you should be thinking about is the 1% and if the 1% is influential, and feels better about her moderation versus the narrative that she is an extremist, well, that just blunts, again, i mean, the media just goes out and says, wait a second, she's more moderate and that is what historically would win for president. not extreme but moderate. >> right. we're going to see. i mean, obviously, there's so little time for her to clarify her views, but the debate's coming tuesday. >> yes. >> and that will be eye-opening either way.

>> yeah. look, i think that mark halpern, has a terrific blog, and he talks today about how well this campaign is going when it comes to uniform coordination and the message, what they're saying, which is that they let the people -- the minions really kind of say, yeah, and she's changed. she's changed. and whether that is subterfuge or not really doesn't matter because there's so little time. right now, you've got that incredible speech up there. and that speech said, wall street, listen, i'm not your enemy, and then when you couple that with what the beginning of the biden administration, where you couldn't even get -- they wouldn't sit down with a business person. remember, trump had this media -- had this round table of doyens and here we've got a guy who wouldn't take an oil person's call. >> i think most people would agree who have dealt with the biden white house that their interest in capital markets,

they had other issues they'd rather focus on. >> i thought he would have changed from when i saw him on the train and he bragged to me that he was the poorest senator and didn't have anything to do with the stock market. to me, an oddity to be something that you popularize, but most people in america, other than the 401(k) and i.r.a., they don't own stocks. >> djt coming off the highs earlier in the year. we didn't touch on their focus on small business tax deduction, that tenfold increase in deducting the cost of starting a new business. >> look, i'm just going to say as someone who started five businesses, it's a total sham, okay? you don't make any money, so who needs a tax break? why do they always say this? this was a province of the left. it always was. people say to me, are you starting a company because of the tax break? i'm losing millions of dollars, what do i care about a tax break? it's fachtuous, but the media ls it up, and i think when you get a break in the -- in taxes and it's 50,000, is anyone going to start a business?

maybe a small businessperson will be able to have it. small businesspeople, nine out of ten of them fail, for heaven's sake. if you want to help small business, give them money or loans and not tax breaks. it's a -- it's the middle of the road democrat position, as opposed to just funneling money, which is the far left and the right just saying -- >> that goes to the argument that she is some sort of california pragmatist. >> yes, but again, just in term of the -- if people think at home, like, wow, what a break for small business, they have to understand small businesses lose money hand over fist, and it's why so many of them fail, so the idea that a tax break is, like, give me a break. >> although, we are running, jim, 400-plus thousand applications a month, which is up 50% from 2019. >> that's true. but we should be up. we're a growth country. we're a growth country again, and i think people should recognize that we're seeing a lot of -- we're seeing a lot of people square off on the idea of immigration. immigration is positive for growth, but it's also the third

rail for another party. i don't know. look, isn't the takeaway that everything's up in the air? isn't that it? but that the media's bought into a moderate story, and maybe it's true. >> i was just thinking it's the most we've talked politics in a long time. >> and i'm very uncomfortable with it. i'm just very uncomfortable. capital gains is our bailiwick. what do i know about politics? i go to m.s. >> still to come this morning, the president is probreportedly planning to block the nippon steel deal, a big op-ed in "the journal" today about cleveland-cliffs and others. dow futures go gre. resqwkn e reet" in a minute. business. it's not a nine-to-five proposition. it's all day and into the night. it's all the things that keep this world turning. it's the go-tos that keep us going. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone.

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plus, get up to $800 off google pixel 9 phones. switch today! busy day in the auto sector. ford's auto with some numbers. let's get to phil lebeau in morning. hey, phil. >> hey, carl. for the month of august, ford sales up 13.4%, so a nice month for ford, especially when you break down the key numbers that we always look at when we get ford's monthly sales. truck sales, up 12.3% compared

to the same month last year. hybrid sales. hybrid continues to be red-hot and ford is taking advantage of it. that's where the market is. that's where ford is pivoting. up 49.8% in august compared to the same time last year, and then ev sales up 29.8%, august over august. bottom line, you continue to see the growth in hybrids and in evs for ford. overall, though, very nice month for ford with increase of 13.4%. guys, back to you. >> you know, phil, i read yesterday and this morning, too, stellantis not doing well. big inventory issues. >> yes. >> when we think of that, and we look at what we just heard from ford, is that just a straight-out share loss? >> they completely lost it in terms of the first half in terms of production, jim, and everybody knew it. everybody knew it and you finally saw carlos tavaros come

out and say, i'm the one, we continued to produce vehicles when we shouldn't have been producing them at the arranrate they were. talk with a stellantis dealer, dodge, ram, doesn't matter who, they will tell you the inventory glut was killing them, and they were like, we need more in terms of greater incentives, stop the production at the level they were coming at, and then we're finally seeing that now with stellantis saying we're going to cut back production of certain models. they were way overproduction in terms of new vehicles in the first half of the year. >> meantime, phil, these suggestions out of tesla a.i. that they could roll out full self-driving in europe and china early next year. >> yep. yeah, and that's giving the stock a bit of a boost. we'll see how much that moves the bottom line. certainly, if you can expand a product where there is some demand, and it's a little unclear if you talk with analysts how much demand there is for full self-driving because they've cut the price a couple of times now, but any time you

can expand that and now offer it in europe as well as in china, you're certainly going to help the bottom line and that's one reason why you see shares of tesla moving a little bit higher this morning. >> one theory, jim, this morning is that tesla is absorbing some of the enthusiasm that's leaking out of nvidia. i wonder if you think that makes sense. >> we have to remember, the last conference call, very grudgingly, musk gave credit, it was very hard to listen to him, to jensen huang and the team. look, jensen huang, they're a mercedes shop, okay? let's just understand it. they do a lot of work. full suite, including the digital twin with mercedes, but i do think that you're going to hear about that exchange for a very long time, because musk does not like to pay the price of nvidia chips. a lot of people would then tell you the second to pay back nvidia is almost instant. that's jensen's rap. i think this is going to be a tussle for very many years. >> definitely some churn going

on in ev penetration. >> and the robot piece, did you read that? jonas is so entertaining. i think he just says, boy, we haven't had anything entertaining, i'm going to put out something about the robots. very nice. >> we'll get cramer's "mad dash," countdown to the opening bell iju aomt.n st men

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some s&p laggards to watch at the open. hpe is going to be one of them. some of the premarket losses, gaining some steam here, as they come in with weaker results. we're going to talk to antonio later on this morning. we'll get the opening bell in just a couple of minutes on this very busy thursday heangnt jo friday tomorrow. stay with us.

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>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, a leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. cramer's "mad dash" as we count down to the bell. >> carl, there was a company at one time that had become very much of a meme stock, and that's c 3 a.i. people felt that it was the best way to play a.i. well, if that's the case, people are now beginning to wonder whether that is such a good idea. tom siebel, last night on jon fortt, the ceo, tries to talk a pretty good game but at the same time, he has a subscription business and the subscription business had lumpy numbers, and also the billings -- let's just

say, what happened is that they had -- if they were so good, why did they guide higher? that's the theme on the call. i found the analyst combative. i felt tom siebel, an old hand, handled it just okay, basically saying, enough already with that. and the analysts don't play that game. you can't have a sequential quarter-to-quarter decline in billings and expect people to buy into all your positive rhetoric. it was a painful call. i think tom's terrific, but a painful call. >> do you think this is a precursor to some estimates coming down, some revisions happening? >> yes. and i also think people -- once again, we're in this world, ever since the nvidia call, where everyone's questioning anything a.i. and if you have a.i. in your title, obviously, it's a nonstarter. versus, say, gitlab, which was up very big the other day and had very good a.i. numbers. people are going through a.i., positive, negative. don't forget, tonight is broadcom and there was an

analyst from evercore who said, buy it in front of the print, buy it ahead of the conference call. i was going through some of his other things, and he said, you should buy into the nvidia july quarter print. that was not a good idea, so i want this fella to go one for two, because my travel trust owns it but there's a lot of game-playing once again about a big quarter tonight by hock tan and broadcom, which is the smack in the middle of a.i. >> so, you'd like to have a session in which nvidia is not the focus. >> right. i think we need a session where we say, you know what? banks are making a good move, i'm taking a look at pfizer, merck, maybe merck bottoms here, we continue to have good numbers from unh, and i want that. i want finance, and i want health care. by the way, health care, health maintenance, the insurers, typically, those are the ones you really want to crush ahead of a democrat doing well. not this time. again, i'm coming to you with this -- there's no attack on

pharma. where's the pharma attack? you're supposed to, you know, it's like d.a. pro when you have no story to write. pharma attacks. but no, no pharma attacks. >> one session ahead. let's get started with the opening bell. at the big board, it is foot locker celebrating 50 years, and at the nasdaq, kpmg and steph curry, underrated golf celebrating the curry cup. we talked to curry earlier in the week about that endeavor. what a delight he is. >> yes, and he's a very substantive figure. i was talking about the ua, the under armour tour to china, what it would mean, and remember, kevin plank is in this a multiquarter term. i think that steph curry is part of that, which is really amazing. the guy knows business, curry. by the way, you interview a lot of athletes, and i can say, well, they know business, but it tends to be personal, what they're doing, personally. no, i mean, steph had a vision about under armour and china,

which is pretty amazing. speaking of vision, the vision that mary dillon is bringing to the turn at foot locker is extraordinary, just like she did for ulta, and we don't remember ulta being good because right now, the stock's been under a lot of pressure, but foot locker, she says, multiyear turn, don't forget, and when i spoke to her, she continued to lay out, it's a big turn, but it's going to happen. i had first felt it would happen sooner. that was wrong, but it will happen. >> it certainly has been a series, though, of higher lows, going back since may. >> exactly. and i think what's going to happen here is that there's going to be a quarter where she just says, you know what? this is the turn. by the way, she's one of the few executives that everyone will say, it's not the turn yet. don't get ahead of yourself. i got ahead of myself because i saw insider buying by mary. that was my fault because i was -- what she did lay out a vision that was going to be a shorter time frame, and now it's a longer time frame, but the fact is that rebuilding the balance sheet is number one, and that's what they're doing. i find these ceos who don't

rebuild the balance sheet, walgreens has to rebuild the balance sheet, intel has to rebuild the balance sheet. you've got to get that balance sheet rebuilt before you can make a turn. >> right. jim, you mentioned china. jpmorgan today, downgrades to neutral. tiffany, a name we used to talk a lot about, down-sizing their shanghai flagship. >> bernard arnault understands what he's doing. i think the china piece, originally there was a lot of groaning to that, but i do think when you take a look at what people are really worried about with china, which is a dramatic slowdown, we think about the kind of things that -- where they -- they detain executives, and i find these stories painful. i mean, who do they detain? look at astazeneca. that is not the way to bring in foreign capital, and yet i find that china, when i read that piece, i just say, domestic consumption, sluggish, weak private business sentiment, prolonged housing market

problems, deflationary pressure. in other words, stay away. >> while we're covering that part of the world, jim, move to japan, and this nippon deal. "washington post" says white house moves to block. we mentioned "the journal" op-ed today that argues that a cleveland-cliffs chase is about unions protecting unions >> let's go over this. i've been very negative. right from the '50s, that -- lorenzo came on, the incredible ceo of cleveland-cliffs, came on our show and said, listen, that deal is not going to happen. i'm a believer in him because he is true north when it comes to telling the truth about the steel industry. i would point out there's also a second wave of thought, which is that if you combine these two companies, it really hurts the auto industry, versus being a union company. u.s. steel has -- are adamant this is the way they will keep their business versus what's going to happen if they don't get the deal. in other words, what happens is

cleveland-cliffs put out -- if they put out a proposal saying, listen, we have xyz steel company is willing to take all the overlap so we get this deal done, i think justice blesses it and -- or the president blesses it in a last-minute transaction, maybe after the election, because no one wants to lose pennsylvania. >> right. we're already dealing -- and the "journal" points this out -- employment at mills is down in recent years, regardless ofany of this. >> yeah, and the way you want to -- if you want to look at the people at nucore, please cover your ears, but they both had -- they all have to share pricing and grades, and that industry has been hurt by back-door steel from china through mexico that no one seems to be willing to confront except for lorenzo from cleveland-cliffs. >> we'll keep an eye on it. it's moving along here, although as you pointed out yesterday, weird agreement in all the

circularity politically in this thing is remarkable. >> it's not a big company, and people should recognize that it's a shadow of its former self. nucor is the king, deservedly so, because of technology. one of the things that's really a shame about u.s. steel, and happened to bethlehem steel, you got to put some money into these things. these things are a giant money suck, and if you don't put the money in, frankly, you get a takeover bid from nippon steel. verizon frontier. >> okay, so, look, one of the things that they should have spent a little more time on when hans vestberg was talking, he talks and he's very authoritative, but this company was bankrupt four years ago. wasn't that the time you wanted to buy them, when they were bankrupt? why would you go now? but they do have a lot -- they have like 13 million lines that need to be converted that a lot of them are very old kinds of lines that i didn't even know that people had anymore. dsl lines. but this is going to give verizon more heft, but they didn't have to pay a lot for it, clearly. there's the take under. but i do think they should have

spent, you know, look, hans vesper is not going to come on, the ceo of verizon. i should have bought this thing earlier. frontier communications is emerging from bankruptcy. april 30, 2021, they cut the debt by $11 billion and now they only have $11 billion in debt so it's not like verizon is overpaying, but i do think that there was a time to buy it, and it was then >> right. vestberg did talk about the regulatory approval process. take a listen. >> first of all, we think this is great from consumers, and we are, of course, expecting that there's going to be the regulatory approvals. we'll be thorough and go through it, but this is a great deal for everyone involved, so we are very confident this will go through, but we also expect that the process will be thorough, and we will -- we have dealt with these type of processes be before. >> look, the administration has favored a radical deploy of fiber wherever, they don't like the two countries, the country

that doesn't have the good lines, the country that does, so i think this can work. at the same time, we want to know what any of these unions are saying about it. also, just in the time frame of when this deal was announced, it is well timed from the point of view that we have a union president, but they won't be able to bless it. again, justice is independent of the president on this. justice is, you know, they're going to look at this very seriously and talk about market share. i think there shouldn't be a problem, but i have felt that every deal shouldn't be a problem. >> and you've been routinely disappointed. >> look, they -- well, no, i shouldn't say that. jensen huang did not get a subpoena. terrific, right? hey, i didn't get one either. >> baby steps. >> thank heavens. >> we're going to talk to antonio neri later on, as we mentioned. >> people are going to say, wait a second, if that stock is down, we should tell nvidia because they're a partner with nvidia, but the fact is it was the gross margins, the pressure, and a lot of the pressure could be related to blackwell. we know this is the delayed

great super chip from nvidia. that really hurt the margins, because they have bad deal problems. they had to throw out a lot of stuff. you want to ask him, how much of it is really just, hey, listen, there's margin problems. because the revenues seem very strong. >> yes. we look forward to hearing from him. usually pretty candid and decent color about the quarters. >> by the way, i mentioned merck as being the tail of whether they move into health care because merck's been the worst. merck is up two bucks. >> bunch of moves on the sell side today, jim. the one that stood out might be coke. cfra cuts to hold. down to $72. >> i've been waiting for this. there are a lot of companies that reported ten weeks ago, and all we cared about was glp-1, and then it turned out that, well, glp-1 didn't matter. what matters is the rotation, because of weakness, and that set coca-cola up to a very high price. i know better than to sell coke. that has been one of the great sucker plays in the last decade, ever since james quincey came in, you want to own coke.

any weakness in coke, and this is the k.o. kind of knockout kind, i would be a buyer, as opposed to pepsico. i still worry about glp when it comes to snacks. >> because -- because of the snack element. >> yeah. >> which used to be pepsi's, like, that used to be their silver arrow. >> glp attacks the snacking business. now, conagra would disagree with that. they think snacks are somewhat immune. none of the food companies have even suggested that glp-1s have any impact and i think that's going to end up being something they shouldn't be so aggressive about saying. >> there's a couple calls on housing. one, i know, kbh, gets cut at rbc, jim. i only mention it because the long bond, the 30-year treasury, is not that far from a three handle, which would have been unthinkable a year ago. >> you sell the home builders at your own risk. these are single-digit price to earnings multiple stocks that tend to balloon when we do get rate cuts. but i think people say, wait a second, the stocks are up so much. i'm late, or they already made their move. that's not true. you can't say that. they don't make their move until

the multiples go higher, and they haven't yet. so, don't sell the home builders when you look at what bonds are doing. it's a big mistake. >> we should mention the two-year, jim, almost down to below 3.7%. that's going to take you back to last summer. and we got almost a full point of positivity on the curve. >> you've got a huge capital gain if you bought them, you know, if you bought them six weeks ago. it's very unusual to have a big capital gain on the two-year, but for someone who bought it and are part of the problem of the capital gains, meaning you're making billions, you want to flip those. maybe if you have $50 million in treasurys, flip them for a nice gain. >> have you heard some of these tactical calls to short the two-year? i wonder if those are attractive. >> it seems so obvious that it's got to be wrong. i mean, everybody should be doing it. those people who do that trade, there you go. and what do you have to send me if you do it? an invitation to your funeral. >> yeah, it's kind of like

seasonality, jim. i mean, does it work if everybody knows it's coming? >> it's september. everything that you think is going to happen tends not to happen. let's be very careful. i just think, look, we've got -- we wake up and suddenly, we hear that the vice president's got a different plan from the president? and it's -- where is the -- there's been no distance between the two. suddenly, we find out, no, she favors a better tax break for wealthy people than biden. wow. she must be pretty good when it comes to moderation. that's the rap. and that's what they're doing, and you can say, well, it's disingenuous, or you say, hallelujah. >> couple calls on dollar tree. the bmo target goes from $130 to $68. goldman had a great chart looking at delinquencies, still pretty contained at the low end. >> yeah, i think, you know, there were some issues in dollar tree involving their supply chain, and i think that one of

the things that -- they always have these theft issues, unfortunately. but i have -- i first propounded when it came to these that when they broke the buck, when you started seeing things north of the dollar tree, that became a sign that, wait a second, people are now checking the pricing out. as long as everything's under a dollar, you figure it's the cheapest. when it starts going above a dollar, you start doing price compares versus walmart, and the price comparison does not favor dollar tree, and there's a lot of competition in the segment. >> i love the booth to build is tapestry versus dollar tree where it is kind of a reflection of trouble, whether it's competition, jim, or whether it's a macro tell, but the difference between brands that sell luxury versus brands that sell discount. >> it's real. but i think that what people are doing is going toward tjx, which shares luxury at a discount. that's one of the reasons why i think the nordstrom deal is so st interesting. i had a sell to hold i saw this morning on nordstrom, as

deference to the fact that the family has put together a bid, but they put together a bid before and that was wrong. people think that this bid is chimerical, and i say, rack is worth -- you can close almost all but a couple stores and get a very good price for rack. >> really quick, i want to jump in and get eamon javers on. i think some news regarding snap. good morning. >> good morning, carl, that's right. the attorney general of new mexico, raul torres, has filed a lawsuit this morning against snap, inc., the parent of snapchat, and he's alleging here in this lawsuit that snap, because of the way its social media service is constructed, makes itself available to child sexual predators and, in fact, facilitates the exchange of child sexual abuse material. in the lawsuit, the attorney general of new mexico is saying that snapchat is a primary platform used by criminals to carry out sextortion against

children. he also says that sextortion is so common and simple for predators to carry out on snapchat that criminals circulate scripts they can use to victimize minors, and snapchat has not taken steps to block those scripts. he's also saying here that there's been an undercover operation by the new mexico department of justice to set up dummy accounts on snapchat, and they've attracted a whole lot of really gross attention from predators on that service. we'll reach out to snapchat and get their response to this lawsuit, which was filed this morning, carl. back over to you. >> eamon, thanks for that. one more chapter in moderation of social media content, jim. >> yeah, look, i mean, these lawsuits, there's really only one thing, if you're on the other side of that, i think whatever you do is you get to the regulators, tell us what to do. i always felt that meta took that position. meta really never did the sexual predators that i know of, but this is obviously incredibly serious to the not necessarily to the stock, because it's just been pummelled left and right,

but to the zeitgeist of it, which is that, you know what, go to pinterest if you want safety. pinterest is the one that i think has the most safe environment, but that, again, is really for crafts of all ages. >> finally, as we await pmi in a couple seconds, and we'll go to break, let's talk some ravens-chiefs tonight and some team valuations. >> well, you know what? i went down to see what jerry jones had going down there in dallas, and i went to that dallas town, star, i think that's a conservative price for -- i'm not a -- i hate the cowboys. okay? but i don't hate that valuation. i just think it's very right. i don't hate the way he runs the shop, and his daughter is very involved, and legends, and you know, he's a great p businessperson. what can i say? i'm surprised the pats held their value but i know that bob kraft is instrumental in trying to figure out how to make the most money as a franchise.

i only mention that because there's no belichick and no brady and there's no real starting quarterback. >> and i wonder. we haven't talked about whether or not the influence of private equity will change the way valuations are calculated, right? >> well, when i had clark hunt on, the owner of the chiefs and maybe one of the richest owners, he said, look, it could help everybody in terms of having parity. the salary cap is going to go up very big, so you need more money just because of the salary cap, and i look forward to that game. obviously, i went out to see the chiefs play -- >> i remember that. that's a live shot, by the way. >> the only thing i remember is i have a minus nine, you know, screen grab that i did because it was truly unbearable. it's so unbearable that i think that jason kelce kept his pants on. took his shirt off. >> well, some of the chatter around your birds is pretty positive, i would say. i don't know if these last 24 hours -- >> schefter drafted -- he drafted barkley.

i'm talking about the king. they are in brazil. howie roseman told me, we're on the plane, going down, it's all very exciting, and i think there are people who are wildly enthusiastic about the birds in brazil. i didn't know we had that many fans. if my wife's listening, i don't mean "we." i mean they. my wife says, oh, what's your position? are you a player? >> i expected you to go, but i know you're a busy man. >> i was debating it and i think it is -- i would have loved it, but it was not like someone's saying, here's your ticket. >> and then, of course, for our own purposes, our corporate losses, we'll watch for the impact at peacock as we get packers-eagles. >> let's see. the nba deal and known as the sports destination, i do think -- i don't know what you do if you have it both on linear and you have it on cable. you really want to drive people, like the kansas city game, to cable, but who am i? i'm just a -- all the world's is a stage, and i'm merely just a

player. >> yeah. this is a look at comcast, still struggling to get back above $40, but it's -- it's one of the great times of year, jim. we get all this back. >> no, and it -- >> games start coming. >> we all did our fantasy, we got them yesterday, and we all have great regret, but i have to tell you, if schefter has regret, which he does, of course, i have regret, and by the way, my pc froze and that's why i have bijan robinson from atlanta. one of the things -- i wanted ceedee lamb but i wish that company, not team, was worth $6 billion, not si billion dol dollars. >> we did get services pmi out a couple moments ago. final reading for august, 55.7. looking for 55.1. >> let's buy nvidia. >> yep. number remaining above 50 marks the 19th consecutive month of expansion in services activity. >> nvidia is up two bucks. oh my god, are we that fatuous? >> s&p holding 5,520.

we mentioned bonds earlier. yields were lower across the board at the open as we get the two-year almost back to may of '23, bouncing right off of 3.72%. stay with us. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ this one is for you.

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human way to healthcare. keep your eye on roku, nice almost 6% gain here as wells upgrades to equal weight, moves estimates on q3, q4 platform revenue growth of 11 to 14% ahead of guidance and consensus. as you can see a bit of move here after some of the action in the -- after the bell last night. for the time being, doisoww dn 93. we'll be back in just a moment. stay with us. (♪♪) mud mask? (♪♪)

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let's get to jim and stop trading. >> a great turnaround story in the farm sa, dr. vaknar has done in terms of righting novartis. a horse, 3% yield, up 16% for the year and gets the wrath of goldman that takes it from buy to hold. they say it moves too much. i hope it comes down and people

buy it. nice calls on "mad money" and things i've done right. i had this in my -- i had this in my bull pen and didn't pull the trigger. i thought it was an unsustainable rally and that was wrong and it's going to continue here. very good company. >> it's the latest in a collection of names where you had a nice run and you were unwilling to let go. >> yes. >> we mentioned coke and talked proctor. we let go of a little bit of proctor. look what i did in alphabet. alphabet has a big trial that starts on monday about advertising and i think of the government is on the wrong side, but that hasn't meant much. i think they had a better case with the default search. i have held on to alphabet too long. it's been a bear, and when it was down the most of any stock during -- it was down by 4 or 5 in the daily i did this chart of daily losses and this company came up, the only one that didn't bounce back ahead of the s&p. i should get out of alphabet. i'm in it because i'm afraid one

day apple will have a glow fest and we'll have their ai. cat on tonight, cat has been a stock that has been deeply influenced by what people think about the economy, but it's a much more stable company. it's not like that anymore. people should recognize the reason it's had a run because of that man, jim humbly. he said we're going to be physically responsible, do the right thing for shareholders and people said oh, i'm a huge believer. he's been dead right. these people have sells on it like the justice department issues subpoenas. >> that's going to be a great interview. >> thank you. >> a lot of color. >> he's real. >> see you tonight "mad money" 6:00 p.m. eastern time. hpe among the biggest s&p laggards. we'll talk to antonio neri in a nu.e

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good thursday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla. we are live from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. take a look at stocks. different tone. the nasdaq higher for the first time in three days. the s&p also up 0.3%, but it is being led by consumer discretionary, communication services, and technology bouncing back. tesla up 5.25%. that's helpful. some of the cyclical groups are under pressure. industrials at the bottom of the pack with health care, financials, materials and consumer staples. treasuries we're seeing bond buying in recent days and that continues today with the 10-year going south again, 3.746%. as we await ism services any second. 30 minutes into the trading session. three big movers we're watching. verizon buying frontier communications in a $20 billion deal combining the top cell phone carriers with one of the nation's biggest broadband providers to about 3 million

locations in 25 states. verizon gave up early gains. frontier down as the price was lower than its close. tesla announcing plans to roll out its full self-driving assistance software in europe and china next year pending regulatory approval. more on what it means for the stock later this hour. hewlett-packard enterprise in the red despite a top and bottom line beat, the numbers, some of the margin scrutiny with the ai business with antonio neri this hour. >> ecodata crossing. ism services for august 51.5. we were looking for 51. anything above 50 does indicate expansion. jobs, employment, 50.2, versus the prior 51.1. new orders p53, prices paid, market seems to appreciate the fact that we are still expanding on the services front. >> good news is good news on the economy because this market has been hyper sensitive to any kind of growth scare data, and the

data this morning is mixed. good news on services just now, but a lot to chew on when it comes to jobs. d adp weaker than expected. 99,000 jobs, economists looking for 145,000. here's where the jobs were and weren't. education a big contributor and construction, but actually jobs were lost in manufacturing in business services, in information technology. also, if you break it down by small, medium and large-sized firms, small firms actually lost jobs during the month, down 9,000. the gains in medium-sized firms. notable that -- where the strength is and where it isn't on job growth. other data to pull out of the adp on wages the, the fed has been watching that. for workers that change jobs where you do usually see an increase, it was pretty much

unchanged at 7.3%, the lowest pace since 2021. it's still healthy growth for wages but the numbers have come down and for people who stay at their jobs, 4.8%. what do we make from that data? it doesn't have a great correlation with the government jobs data, but it adds to more evidence that labor market is cooling, less demand for workers, and in some cases they're not -- industries are not adding jobs and they're certainly not doing it with the wage growth they did it in the last few years. >> for the jobs that do exist, unit labor costs at 0.4, when looking for 0.8. the argument this morning that is not indicative of a second chapter of reflation or inflation rearing its ugly head. >> hasn't been much to be concerned about on that front for the federal reserve. those that are worrying we're

going into recession, you know, things are collapsing, first of all, services should shut down that this morning, jobless claims, there's not a lot of stress when it comes to layoffs. fewer americans filing for unemployment claims. in fact, lowest since early july, eight-week low, second lowest print of the summer. things are starting to turn for the worse at big companies, you would see these numbers creeping up. we haven't done that yet. so that's on the plus column. then on the negative column. did you read the beige book. >> i can't read of it without thinking of you. >> what happened was, now you have nine districts out of the 12 that saw flat or declining growth, and that was an increase from five districts the prior report. so that means only three districts actually saw growth during the quarter. there was -- this is an anecdotal read, i recommend it if you want to know what's going on in the economy.

we know fed chair powell pays attention to it and cited it many times. it was not great. i pulled out some random regional quotes to give you a sense of flavor. from the minneapolis district, a northern wisconsin retailer said that tourist numbers seemed strong, but they are spending money on need items, not want items. a minnesota retailer reported that foot traffic is down and lots more lookers than buyers. just thought that was good color. and then in new york, i didn't do broadway but visits to the statute of liberty, a proxy are for international visitor, just about at prepandemic levels but a local tourism expert noted international travel to nyc has been sluggish even though they're getting good room rates at hotels in new york city. if the fed, the members of the fed, who are going into a quiet period next week ahead of their meeting the following week are going to read this, and it jives more with what we're hearing from corporate america, which is, things are softening for the

consumer and it's also kind of a bearish tell ahead of jobs tomorrow. there wasn't a ton of robust commentary around the hiring environment in some of these districts. >> how much credibility are we placing on adp in terms of tomorrow? >> hasn't been a good barometer. beige book with some of the downbeat commentary around hiring could be more of a tell on jobs. >> yeah. i know the -- some of the last-minute tweaks to estimates for non-farm payrolls are looking at typical august seasonality tends to introduce downside risk to the tune of 30k, but major firms say we've incorporated that into our models. >> it's impossible to tell. last month we didn't think there was going to be a storm effect. might have been a storm effect. the jobless number, that's why it's almost a little ridiculous a lot of people think the fed's first move of a 50 or 25 hinges on one jobs report. they get revised every time and we got a revision back for a year that was off by 800,000 jobs for the entire year.

so it's -- it's not necessarily so precise. we get an overall picture of a labor market that's slowing, not going into necessarily recession, but time for the fed to move. i think the judgment call will be whether they want to go big or small to kick it off. >> that said markets are holding ahead of the jobs number tomorrow. our next guest says the outlook for next quarter could spell trouble given weakening tailwinds for stocks. joining us at 900 is barclays head of u.s. equity strategy. welcome. >> >> thanks. >> sara mentions things in the micro and macro, revisions, pmi, some of the bls numbers. do you have a preference about the size of the cut, if we get one? >> we think it's going to be a quarter point, and we think it's going to be three cuts. the real view held is be careful what you wish for. more aggressive cuts have a

bigger problem waiting. a scenario you see steady or smaller cuts is far better for the economy and especially for the equity markets than big moves. obviously, those moves are not independent. they are driven by what's happening in the labor market and hence what's the impact of the economy. i think it's an interesting environment we're in right now. >> how impressed have you been about equities' ability to outperform other macro tells like commodities and bonds? is it about technology and if so, is that a risk given comfort commentary lately. >> i'll answer in two parts. first, equity markets have been more right than most of the risk assets in the treasury market in the last year and a half, so the credit goes to the equity markets in that respect. the second part is technology, yeah, a good part thus far has been all about technology and

especially big tech, which is a group of wholistic stocks the way we define it. so yes, but i think since q1 of this year we have seen early green chutes or some incremental improvement outside of big tech, which is a healthy sign, but i think where the caution comes in is that the pace of what people have been expecting is a lot more than what is being delivered. i think it's going to be very steady and slow process. it will probably go more into '25 than this year, but overall, listen, if we look at the earnings season, for example, the top of it a lot of healthy signs, the best you've seen in two years, positive operating leverage in which sales growth is less than earnings growth, so that's a very healthy sign, but there are red flags. the numbers for q3 have been cut sharply, and yet the numbers for

subsequent quarters have been untouched. which tells me that there's clearly a fear of macro uncertainty. the other way to think about macro uncertainty if you look at what this market is telling you, the forward s&p curve over the next month, a 3 is the biggest move and the move related to that is more than what has been realized the last two years. so i think labor market and growth remains a critical lemts round in the markets. >> what about tech? i mentioned nasdaq being higher today for the first time in a while. it's still down almost 3% for the week. it really has set the tone for stocks lately, the biggest sector and the swing factor for the s&p 500? is the valuation reset? do you think it's been done? do you think we've washed out positioning or do you see more of the pain for the group? >> evaluations have corrected

quite healthily, but i don't think we're out of the woods. the sheer scale of it, big tech driving 25% of the earnings growth in the s&p, their valuations had peaked at 34 times forward earnings and then during the correction we saw in july-august they dipped to about 27 times. the bottom has been 25 times in it's 22 selloff. i think right now we're sitting at 29 times. i am a little concerned because i think tech, what has happened is the torrid pace of earnings growth from big tech is clearly moderating. right. it's moderating at a healthy clip, so we saw two quarters of moderation, expected to have another level of moderation, and then set until around 20% level. if that is indeed what plays out andwe are quite hopeful about that, then paying a multiple in the mid to high 20s is quite reasonable. but there is a risk to that. i think the minute big tech as a group when it goes above 30 as a

group, i think there is some reason for you to be more cautious about what you can expect. the last thing i would say, i mentioned it one last time, remember that when big tech correct, correlation increases and so does the rest of the market. it's all linked, but overall, tech valuation corrections has been healthy and much, much needed. >> that's a good way to look at it. we'll see. certainly what get in the nearer term with the jobs number tomorrow. thank you. good to see you. >> as we head to break our road map for the rest of the hour. hpe raising guidance, shares lower. ceo antonio neri joins us to break down the numbers after the break. >> most valuable teams in pro football, cnbc out with a new list as we approach tonight's kickoff and braeng break down the list this hour. >> vice president harris out with a new tax proposal that would raise the capital gains

tax. "squawk on the street" will be right back. don't go anywhere. welcome b

the street." hewlett-packard enterprise beating estimates on the top and bottom lines. shares are under pressure with a focus on margins for the company's ai server business. antonio neri here to break down the numbers and a first on cnbc interview. this is deja vu with what we got from dell a few quarters ago when it was great growth in the

ai server business at the expense of margins. is that the story here? >> good morning, sara. thank you for having me today. so first of all, we are very proud of the results we posted. we did what we said we would do. in fact r we grew revenues 10% year over year with a significant conversion in the ai business, but at the same time we also improved our operating margins at a company level by 50 basis points on a sequential basis, and when you look at the server business our operating margins actually improved 70 basis points year over year. and so despite the mix to ai, which is everybody's concern, our operating margins actually expanded. when you look at the gross margin level which is the other key metric you're referring to. >> yep. >> the reason why the gross margins were down is because less contribution from our working business is now on the way to recovery because we saw

also revenue and gross margin expansion in the quarter. however, you know, the contribution was significant less. that's why when i look at the results there's nothing more to be proud than what we have done and excited what comes next, especially as we think about the juniper integration. >> so the gross margin you referenced, where does that go? what are you telling investors about that today with the stock down 7%, as you say, what was a good quarter? >> yeah. so the biggest contributor to that decline was driven by the lack of revenue in hp network, which is, obviously, an industry trend we have seen over the last several quarters post-covid, but the good news is we see sequential recovery. the biggest driver was that, where our server business on the segment side, we actually improved operating margins and

actually improved gross margins for both server business, which was up significantly, and our ai business. >> what are you seeing in the ai business, as, you know, we've got a couple quarters under our belt with growth, what are you seeing from enterprise as to adoption and where we are in the cycle? >> yeah. i think about three segments. the server provider segment and mobile builders, momentum is very, very strong. we participate there with discipline on an eye on profitability. and then the other two segments are server clouds and enterprise. the server cloud we see high interest now. the sell cycle is longer because it takes time to complete the procurement cycle and design of the product. on enterprise we saw high, high interest. today enterprise representing mid teens in our orders and in our backlog, and we introduced now what i believe is going to

be a very important key driver for us of growth, which is the hpe private cloud ai, which was co-engineered with nvidia, and that also includes software from hpe is a part of our platform. ultimately customers need hyper expedience for ai. a lot of interest. mature use cases are coming online. we focused on manufacturing, health care, as well as customer services, and we have what i call ai in the box. three clicks, less than 30 seconds, with our hp private cloud solution, we actually can have applications in the ai space up and running which is a source of time to value. >> we're starting to see, though, comparisons to the build out of cisco, nor tell, lieu cent and what is the push back to assuage the fear that this is all a period of over investment?

>> i will say that this technology, carl, is way more revolutionary than just the internet time because it changes everything. it's not just by connecting people and businesses. it's by transforming where we work. where we live. in my mind this is the most transformative technology we're going to experience at least in our lifetime, and ultimately, you need a lot of compute capacity to train this model and be accurate. we are in the early stages we believe. however, as soon as the enterprise starts off, we will see higher demand in the traditional space, which ultimately will drive gross margins and operating margins where we play as a company most of the time. >> appreciate the update on earnings. talking us through what you're seeing. >> thank you. >> good to see you. an tone neri. >> the vice president out with a new plan to raise the picatal gains tax. we've got some numbers after a

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needs plan. so, call now. humana. a more human way to healthcare. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire . vice president harris breaking with president biden suggesting a capital gains hike

that would be far less than biden proposed. robert frank has nthose details for us. nice breakdown on "squawk." >> thanks. the story changing by the hour vice president harris proposing that 28% on long-term capital gains would be higher than the current rate of 20%, but lower than the 39.6% that was proposed by biden. now the big question right now is what she plans to do with the net investment income tax. that's the added surcharge that helps fund the affordable care act. the campaign telling some media yesterday she would raise it from 3.8 to 5%. that would bring the total capital gains rate to 33%. but harris donor mark cuban telling cnbc this morning he's being told the all-in rate will be under 30%. >> i'm not committing with the final number is going to be, but every conversation i've had, including up to yesterday after her speech, was that it was going to end up with a 2 handle.

>> now whatever the rate it would only apply to those with income of a million dollars or more, so that's about 800,000 taxpayers a year. harris has not announced changes to her endorsement of taxing unrealized gains for those worth more than $100 million. wealthy donors have been pressuring her campaign to take that off her platform now. interesting, cuban, said this morning, quote, tax on unrealized gains is not going to happen. so he said he's been talking to the harris campaign three are four times a week, so he may have pretty good information, but we haven't heard anything from them officially on that interest income tax or whether they're going to proceed with the unrealized gains tax. guys? >> it's very confuse, isn't it, robert? what are we meant to believe? >> yeah. look, i think what we're meant to believe is that she's not going as far as biden did with

that 2024- '25 white house budget that had the capital gains tax of 24.6%, tax on unrealized gains, the important message she's now for the first time creating some distance between her tax policy and biden's and saying yesterday, clearly in that speech, that she wants to support founders, entrepreneurs and small businesses with these plans to perhaps show a more moderate stance on taxes. you're absolutely right, these details are influx and we don't have enough to say what the final numbers are going to be. >> yeah. long discussion this morning about how you cram that messaging into such a short period of time. to bring it back to cuban, robert, he did say that the vice president is in what he called founders mode, and i know jeff stein of "the washington post" says he's becoming harris' strongest online soldier. >> yeah. look what's clear is that she's getting a lot of vocal support from donors, particularly in

technology, folks like mark cuban and they are clear about the capital gains tax, they're clear about unrealized gains and what that would mean to tech founders that they start a company, the company is successful, they would have to borrow money every year as it grew in value to pay that tax. the good or bad thing, depending on where you stand in the party, she is listening to her donors right now and they are clear on these taxes. >> well, i guess so, but, you know, to be clear, she's still advocating for higher capital gains taxes and higher corporate taxes at a time where the economy is softening and we're wondering to what extent and layoffs or at least unemployment rate is picking up, i wonder if mark cuban and others are telling her it's not a great time to raise corporate taxes? clearly not. >> and that's where -- sara, you're right. that's where it comes down to the details. if it's -- doesn't sound like much, 5%. for people who make money from capital gains, investors that watch cnbc, it's a big

difference. if it's 33 that would be the highest rate since 1978. if it's 28, that would bring us back to the late 1990s when the stock market and economy was growing quite strongly. these details matter and they matter a lot in terms of how investors perceive her as being either business friendly or being on the more progressive wing of the party. >> and remind us, robert, what percentage of americans this affects? >> so it's about 0.5 -- on the capital gains tax itself which is a million or more in income even if you just have a big capital gains sale that year, about 0.5%, about 800,000 taxpayers. on a percentage basis it's the very, very top and that's why she says basically i'm about the middle class worker not raising taxes for the middle class but supporting programs for the middle class funded by the wealthy. that's her overall message on

taxes. >> certainly some kindling for the debate coming up in a few days. robert frank, talk to you in a bit. thank you very much. meantime, check this out, 1% gain on the nasdaq will get some people's attention after the last few sessions. after the break, tesla full self-driving might be headed to two major markets overseas in the rly rteapa of next year. what to know after this.

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welcome back. i'm seema moody with your news update. authorities say the 14-year-olding who opened fire at his georgia school yesterday and killed two teens and two teachers was investigated last year for making threats to carry out a school shooting. the fbi's atlanta field office says his father told investigators at the time he had hunting guns in the home, but his son did not have unsupervised access to them. authorities confirmed he used an ar-style weapon to commit the shooting. jury selection set to begin in hunter biden's federal tax trial. the case comes just months after

the president's son was convicted of gun charges in a separate case and about a year after a plea deal fell apart that would have prevented either trial from moving forward. the democratic republic of congo receiving its first long awaited batch of mpox vehicles today. congo the epicenter of an infectious strain circulating around africa right now. the european union donated the 99,000 doses that arrived today and another 100,000 on the way. back to you, sara. >> thank you. seema moody. the latest adp jobs report showing the smallest gain in private payrolls since 2021, far below estimates as wall street looks ahead to a make or break jobs report tomorrow. our next guest says the most unlikely outcome below august estimates. so given the backdrop and all the new information we've received this week, should the fed go 50 in september?

>> that's what we think. we think there's a good case they should get back to neutral as soon as possible, neutral policy setting, which, you know, is probably at the highest like 4%, 150 basis points below where they are now. we think there's a good case for hurrying up in their pace of rate cuts. >> on the other hand, conversation services was not too shabby this morning, still in expansion. jobless claims continued to point to lack of stress in layoffs from corporate america. so 50 might be an overreaction to what is an economy that is softening but not collapsing. >> i think that's right. if they wait until it's collapsing that's waiting too long. we think there's a good case, as i said, to get ahead of this any further weakness, so moving soon seems to us like the right thing to do here. >> mike, how do you do 50 and frame it in a way that minimizes the market's sense of panic? what would that sound like? >> i think powell has done a

good job of explaining so far why they've done the things they've done. if they're moving back to neutral that's not saying they're panicked. they want to address growth and inflation risks more jointly. >> what is your sense of -- so the whole softening versus collapsing, the market has become very obsessed and as i mentioned hyper sensitive to the idea of a growth scare, how fast do you see this unraveling? >> so we don't think things are unraveling, right. we have an unemployment rate that's been drifting higher. we have job growth that's moderating. and that doesn't call for, you know, getting policy rate downs to 3 or 2%. we do think there's no longer a very strong case here to keep policy rates, you know, very restrictive because inflation has, you know, come down quite notably, so, you know, the rationale i think for staying very restrictive has gotten weaker in recent months and you saw that as recently as in the july fomc meeting. the case was being made by

several participants then for easing policy. so again, i don't think this is an issue here of the economy collapsing. if it were collapsing i think you would have an argument for going more than 50 at the next fomc meeting. i think this is really just getting back on side. and then if they have to raise there's nothing wrong with reversing course. we think chair powell has, as i said, been a good communicator, even when they changed courses rapidly over the past couple years in hindsight that was, you know, a correct decision when they got, you know, quite a bit more hawkish than they had been. powell was able to explain that, and i think they have to do the opposite right now, i think powell, as i said, has been a very good communicator and he could, you know, talk to the market and public more importantly, about why it makes sense to be, you know, in a more -- in a setting that can address developing riskses to

either inflation or employment. >> on the other hand they are going to get grief for doing this right before the election, especially if they go on a double, right. that doesn't factor. they don't pay attention to that. they do what they have to do. but it's a judgment call here. also inflation is still above target, mike, and i know that the signs are increasingly looking like it's coming back down to earth, but they can't be too sure and they've been wrong before. >> that's fair. there's no guarantee on anything here, but, you know, as powell has said in the past if you wait until inflation is already back to 2%, you've probably waited too long. so there is some, you know, some i think usefulness of having a forecasting or a forecast based on monetary policy and while inflation still a little above target, unemployment is probably getting a little above what they, you know, think is consistent with full employment. right now as i said, you have risks to full employment and

inflation and as i said, you can always reverse course if, you know, it turns out that one of those risks -- >> they don't want to do that. he said that would be the worse scenario and wouldn't look good. i guess the key question, forget the debate about 25 or 50, when is it going to affect the economy? what have we learned about long lags whether they can land the soft landing by going in september and prevent he said further weakness in the labor market would be unwelcomed. >> that's right. there are long lags. this is not -- this is economics, not engineering, it's not a precision science, so -- but i think the lags make the case even stronger for going, you know, aggressive early, particularly if your forecast is that there is a risk that, you know, these increases that we've seen in unemployment and i think as everyone knows well the sahm rule is when you have employment go up, it tends to keep going up

until you're in a full-blown slowdown, so from a forecasting perspective if you thinkabout those lags that makes the case for reacting preemptively stronger if you're also, at the same time, have a good reason to forecast that inflation is coming down because shelter prices and so forth suggest that that's likely to be the case. >> okay. mike, you've made your case. we'll see what we get from the fed. appreciate you joining us. jpmorgan tesla shares gaining ground on the company's full service driving product. back to phil lebeau for more details. >> most of this coming from a post on x by elon musk where he gave an update from the tesla team and two mentions indicate they are close to expanding the full self-driving technology that you currently can get in north america but not in china or europe.

elon musk in his post said pending regulatory profeapprova said in july thebl they're going to get it at the end of the year, pending approval he believes in the first quarter of next year full self-driving technology will be offered in europe and in china. two huge markets, especially china, the significance there is that china is widely viewed as the one area when the robo taxi is in service, whenever that might be, we get the unveil next month on october 10th, china is widely to be believed to be the market where you would see robotaxi first put into commercial service. that's pure speculation. perhaps we'll get more details next month. this news that full self-driving in the words of elon musk pending regulatory approval will be in europe and china, that certainly is the primary reason why shares of tesla getting a pop this day. >> do we know how it compares

technologically to what the chinese already have on the market? as you've reported and we've seen, they're pretty advanced here? >> they are advanced, but full self-driving is likely to be comparable if not better than some of the technology that's already in china. granted, the information we get out of china is a little bit skewed, but, you know, what we're hearing from people who have used some of the advanced driver assistance technology in china, is that, you know, it's substantial. what does that mean? you know, sara it's up to interpretation. >> sure. phil, thank you. phil lebeau with tesla moving up 6% on the day. still ahead the most valuable teams in pro football. cnbc out with a new list as we approach tonight's nfl kickoff. new your favorite team stacks up xt. mine, not so hot. we'll be right back.

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with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. nfl season kicks off tonight on nbc and peacock with the super bowl champion kansas city chiefs taking on the baltimore ravens. this morning, cnbc sport kicks off its official nfl team valuations on cnbc.com. the list ranks the overall franchise values of each of the league's 32 teams and according to the list, the average nfl team is now worth a record $6.5 billion. sitting on top the cowboys worth about 11 or 3 billion more than the second place l.a. rams. here to break down how jerry jones does it is the man behind

it, guru and cnbc senior sports reporter michael zaneya. great to be here. very exciting day. >> talk about how much work goes into this and how long it takes? >> well, i started in 1989, that is when i first started. this is about a three-month long project. you're talking to sports bankers, team executives, people who run the broadcast networks, getting documents, lease agreements, stadium 30 reports, tripg to put together a big puzzle. >> do you kind of have a sense how the list is going to form even before the numbers ratify it in a sense? >> sure. because these deals, these values are based on multiples of revenue. for instance, the commanders last year sold for 11 times revenue. as you start putting this together you see which teams are going to have the most revenue. >> how does jones do it? >> it comes all down to his stadium. he's the master marketer of the stadium. nfl teams keep their revenue from luxury suites, hospitality. he was the first nfl owner to

actually get big stadium naming rights deals and sponsorships. companies like pepsi, american express, whose rivals had already had deals with the nfl, so he went to their counterparts to secure big money deals. >> so let's talk about the valuations overall, right. they've all been rising rapid will i. what's the average valuation? >> you talk about $4.6 billion, and that's largely because league revenue has been increasing in the high single digits. the biggest part, the total league media rights including streaming is about $12.4 billion a year. >> i saw the bengals were in last? >> yeah. that comes down to stadium economics. that $12.4 billion that gets split evenly. doesn't matter what market you are or how good you are in a field. the ben gals do not have great stadium economics. if jerry jones is the great entrepreneur of marketing, mike brown and the bengals are at the

bottom level of that. they get very little stadium revenue. >> it's interesting, you bring up the spread between the valuation and your winning percentage, right? there was some surprise that kraft has held on to the valuation despite what's happened to their overall win percentage. that's not what it's about, necessarily. >> they did win a lot of super bowls when tom brady and bill belichick was there. a lot of these marketing deals and naming right deals, they're multiyear. to your point if we're sitting here two or three years from now and the pats haven't turned it around on the field, you could see them flatline in terms of stadium revenue. >> serious question, does taylor swift factor at in kansas city chiefs' valuation? she should. >> unfortunately, the irony is, she really doesn't. certainly not to the extent she did when her tour last summer was in places like sophie and metlife stadium. those teams were netting over $4

million per. >> because she performed there. >> yeah. it's the performance. you want to control those stadium economics. the chiefs, that's why they want a new stadium, they want to be able to get more stadium revenue. so the irony is, not with the chiefs, but yes, for in my mind- >> only in your mind. i heard you this morning suggest how the influence of private equity might change your models. >> it already has to the extent we really knew, through talking to team owners on the finance committee, that they were going to allow private equity. we have to remember, these guys will be limited partners private equity. they'll have no say in how the teams are run, no dividends and they'll be capitalizing on the appreciation and the value of the teams over time. >> all right. finally during the break, you're talking f1 with sara. how large is your valuation universe and how big can it get? >> you know what, if you look at a team like the miami dolphins,

this is a situation, a perfect example, you talk about f1, they had the miami f1 down there every year. we do not include f1 revenues in the value of the dolphins, but indirectly the dolphins benefit. it builds their brand. it becomes a place sponsors know. if we have sponsorship at hard rock stadium, more people are going to see it and high net worth people. >> like ken griffin, didn't he make a play for the dolphins and f1? >> more high net worth people are moving down to florida. he's already tried to buy a piece of the dolphins and the tampa bay bucs. >> you have to come on every day. >> i look forward to it. i want to. this is great, exciting stuff. bring me back, please. >> don't you worry. for the full nfl team valuations list, be sure to visit our new page at cnbc.com/sport or use the qr code on your screen right there. by the way, don't forget to tune in to tonight's nfl kickoff on

nbc and peacock where the chiefs will take on the ravens. looking ahead to next week, can you join cnbc and boardroom's game plan conference on september 10th in l.a. that's a high-powered event. all to talk about the dynamic intersection of business, sports, music, everything we just talked about. scan that qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/gameplan to register for that. when we come back -- actually, on "money movers," billionaire investor other an orlando bravo is with us. we have a lot to talk about with him. and still to come on this show, kroger ceo defends their potential merger with albertsons in court. we have the latest on this antitrust saga when we come antitrust saga when we come back right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide

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we continue to monitor this kroger and albertsons merger, at least attempted merger, facing the ftc trial this week over their planned $25 billion deal. the ftc alleges it would lead to higher food prices for customers. in court yesterday ceo rodney

mcmullen said the day we merge is the day that we begin lowering prices, under oath. carl, this is heating up. now they face the federal court because the ftc is looking for preliminary injunction to block the deal so they don't merge before their suit against the deal is heard in court. there's a lot at stake because kroger has said if the judge rules against them, they will not continue to pursue the deal. we don't know that for sure. here's the case, kroger and albertsons are both saying prices will come down for consumers. why? kroger ceo rodney mcmullen says albertsons prices are 10% to 12% higher than kroger prices so when they merge there's room and opportunity for them to save costs and bring those prices down. the ftc is alleging that the history of grocery store mergers does not show that at all. it shows higher prices, shows store closures. and then the whole debate about the plan that kroger came up with to divest a bunch of stores

that overlap albertsons into cns, another grocery store operator. and there are questions if kroger investors were involved, whether it was just a bunch of lawyers. ultimately, we'll hear by october 1st. the testimony continues today. and it's a hot potato because it's a political issue around grocery prices right now. there's a lot of heat facing this merger. >> usually is. a key week, a lot of expert witnesses. "meyovs"egs teon mer binafr "meyovs"egs teon mer binafr this at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? can ai help your people work... without all the workarounds? feel better. make customer service work the way customers expect? that one.

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solar energy is changing the world, aes is changing the world of solar. good thursday morning again. welcome to "money movers." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live from poest 9 o the new york stock exchange. orlando bravo is with us. his thoughts on m&a, market volatility. the nfl is expected to set new records with sports betting with the new season kicking off on nbc. uber ditching its own car-sharin