nippon steel acquisition of u.s. steel falls apart here. >> yeah. you will not be able to get a valuation of "overtime" itself, you know, despite the fact that we'refl-type terminology from cnbc. >> yeah. jobs report tomorrow. that's our focus. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> “fast money” starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. investors laser focused on tomorrow's job report, but markets struggling to gain traction ahead of those numbers. will the report help bring stocks into the green for the week? plus, question marks for the fate of u.s. steam. what's next for the company if its deal with nippon steel falls through? and could another suitor emerge? we mine for some answers. >> oh. and on the sidelines. the dallas cowboys may top the debut ranking of the cnbc official team valuation list, but what franchise is waiting in the wicks with the potential to unlock the most value?

we'll go inside the numbers to find out. i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq. on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, and guy adami. we start off with what might be an ominous sign. private payrolls rising by just $99,000 in august, according to adp. well below expectations, and the slowest pace since early 2021. job creation falling five months in a row. what will that mean for tomorrow's labor department number? economists expecting a 161,000 gain in payrolls, with the unemployment rate ticking lower to 4.2 %. stocks largely struggling ahead of the data. the dow dropping 219 points, the s&p 500 on a three-day losing streak. the nasdaq eeking out a quarter of a percent gain. so, what should we expect from the markets? >> tim alluded to this last night, but let's drill down. for a long time, we were in this environment where bad news was good news, but in an environment now where you have a 40% chance of a 50-basis point rate cut in september, that part of the

equation is out. like, the fed part is out in my opinion. so, bad news is going to start to be bad news, and i think you're going to see it tomorrow in the form of this number. i think the street is looking for 4.2%, so, a tick down in the unemployment rate. i'm not sure they're going to get it. and if this starts to stair step in the way i think it will and the way you hear from all these different sectors in terms of layoffs, you know, i think that's going to be a problem for the market. >> so, we would rather -- the markets would rather have a 25-basis point cut than a 50-basis point cut right now. >> all day long. all day long. >> 50-basis point cut -- on a day when john paulsen is saying he thinks the fed is behind the curve. but i don't want to see 50. there are some ingredients going into tomorrow, including things like the u-6, which is the under'employed rate. i actually think -- so, bad news is terrible news for 2 mthe mar.

we saw that on the friday, august 2nd, before that painful august 5th monday, but the dynamic here is, i actually think that the market gets a bit of a repeeve trieve. this is just a trader's call in what i think is a dynamic -- those numbers tomorrow i think are going to be okay. i think we had a seasonally weak number for july printed in august, so, i think this is what the market wants to see. i think the labor market is going to be the dynamic that is going to probably give the market a lot of pain, but it's not going to be tomorrow is my view. >> yeah, it's interesting, that things are playing out very similar to the start of august, when you think about the catalyst that caused that selloff into that august 5th crescendo to the lows, but when i think about what we might see tomorrow, i almost think that yields have kind of run ahead of that, especially if that 40% chance of a 50-basis point cut, you know -- i don't think that's going to happen. then i think about, okay, we're talking about the market, let's talk about s&p earnings. all year long, we're like, that 11% growth year over year, that seems like -- a stretch, right?

and we have 14% expected growth next year. well, think about some things that have happened. yields have come in, crude has come in, wage growth had moderated. you think of the forces that are driving the stock market and eps growth for multinationals, there's some things that are lining up right now. and i don't mean that the economy is going to hang in there, they don't have to keep cutting jobs, they don't have to cut capex. but i don't think we're going to learn anything tomorrow from, you know, from that meeting, and then obviously we had the fed in two weeks that might not change too many things that are going on right now. >> i've moved out of the 25 camp into the 50 camp -- >> want or expectation? >> my expectation. >> what pushed you there? >> i think this -- they are clearly more focused on employment now, right? and so, if we take off the inflation part of the conversation, the employment data, i think, is a little quicker to weaken than i was expecting maybe a month ago.

and so, i think that the downside of going too far with that 25 to 50 is -- is fine. it's not that much downside. right? so, he can do 25 with a very dovish outlook -- >> right. >> or he can do 50 and be a little bit more measured. and to me, that's sort of threading the needle. and i don't think it would be that big of a mistake, right? i feel like the risk of not doing it is a little bit larger -- i don't think 25 or 50, honestly, makes that much different, except for the message it sends. i think the message is already here. we are seeing weaker -- i think they have to address the message. >> but is it weaker in the context of a goldilocks -- >> guy loves goldilocks. >> that's why i -- >> she looked right at me. >> side-eye. >> or weaker in the context of larger slowdown? >> weaker -- i think there's something else at play, which is a little bit of, all right, we've been a little late before,

a couple of times, maybe we don't want to be late this time, particularly when, what is the risk, really? how badly could we screw up if we went 50? >> you think inflation is gone? the risk was too early, why would the fed need to get too far ahead of -- >> right. and we've seen a lot of good inflation data since? >> you think inflation is gone? >> i think this weighs much more heavily. and so, i think if that is the case, which seems to be it is, then err on the side of 50 -- not 25. and think about what we're talking about. how much did they raise? this is up from zero. >> right. the way karen explains it doesn't sound too negative for the markets. but how will the markets actually react. >> well, that said. a lot of times, things in a textbook sound one way and then in real life things happen a much different way. and i totally understand what she's saying. let's play it out a little bit more. there's a presidential election coming up. if they go 50, that will be

politicized without question. you are going to hear it loud and clear how this federal reserve is trying to help the current administration and their candidate. that will be coming to a theater near you. i don't think they want that, number one. number two, i don't necessarily know what, at this point, fed rate cuts are going to do. once the job market starts to move, it gets to this sort of, you know, it gets to this speed that you really can't control. the fact that they may think they can control the unemployment rate is the same way they could control the inflation rate, which means they can't control either one. >> but -- sorry. let me ask you, though. if that is the case, and the employment data seems to continuedeteriorate, then they should have done 50. >> flip side of the coin is what tim was just talking about, the inflation -- >> we're talking about oil down, right? >> right. >> and we're talking about wage growth. >> listen, the freded does not e to surprise the market. the s&p 500 is a little bit off the all-time highs, so, at the end of the day -- i was looking

at fed funds, the way they started to raise rates in 2022, if they start going 50, the expectation is they continue to go 50. >> i don't think so. >> well, i mean, but you're saying that 50 gets the ball rolling and stuff like that. >> and he can do a more measure ed after that -- >> sounds like we're ganging up on karen. >> it's kind of fun. >> you're not alone now, dan. >> if the fed goes 50, just to define this, the era of fed gradualism is over, and this fed has been all about that. >> i don't agree with that, either. >> in the context of how much they've hiked. >> well -- again, this is a fed that's saying we now feel some urgency to do something that we don't think so. i know they paved the way in jackson hole to basically say, we are now focused on the labor market, and that's why that was wildly bullish for equities, because it was certainly a constructive and a dovish tilt on what had been a hawkish stance, but why go 50 when

you've been a gradualist? >> one more thing. what if we start to see various fed governors and exgovernors in the next two weeks talking about 50? right, to me, that will have come from somewhere. right? you talk about messaging, dan, that's what i'm referring to. >> you'd have to float a trial balloon. you don't want it to come out -- >> how is 40% expectation of the markets -- how is that surprising the market? >> because it's higher than it was. i mean -- >> if it's -- >> it's a new idea. >> priced in? >> well -- and i would make an argument that bonds have priced in a whole lot of fed and that's where equities need to get worried. >> yeah, and you know -- we should -- a guy like ben eamons would be great to have here. but again, i asked steve liesman this question -- i don't know the answer to it, i'm not a good attorney. i'm not convinced by the way that, as i said earlier, once the rate cut cycle starts, that's not going to magically stop an unemployment rate that's going to continue to move

higher. you get this escape velocity and historic historically, it continues to move. >> all right, for more on what we can expect tomorrow, we are joined by ben eamons. you ask and you shall receive. ben, welcome. >> thank you. >> what do you think, what are you expecting? how do you think the markets will react? >> so, it will be a soft print, i think. the adp number, i think, as much as people talk about that as not a good number to estimate, within that number, leisure, construction, that all has slowed down a lot. and i looked at the ism data today, too, and there's data in there from high unemployment versus low unemployment, that's really contracting, which is like a differential. so, it indicates deflating momentum in the labor market. so, it doesn't look to me like a strong number could come out of this, despite all the statistical issues that we deal with with these payroll numbers these days, because of the revisions, but to the discretion, you know, a soft

print, not necessarily good news for the market in that way, because it does set in motion, again, we're slowing down, we're seeing more coming through the labor market, we're really slowing down, deflating labor momentum, ultimately leads to more contraction. and i think this is where we're sort of at the edge here, why markets are kind of entrepreneur dating. if we're getting a negative report, i don't think that's the case. the only way we could get a positive upset surprise, because of statistics. so, looks to me like a soft print, not a good market reaction. >> so, will the number tomorrow in your view, given your scenario, say that is actually what happens, does it change the fed in what it does? >> it probably keeps them at 25 basis points. but to what you were discussing, waller and bgoods by have said, once it's rising, it doesn't stop. you have to do it faster. and that is that '22 scenario,

we have to suddenly do 50 or 75. i wouldn't be surprised if that would happen if you get the big uptick in unemployment rate, that they react to that quicker. if you have a labor market that's just sort of where it is and claims are, i think, a reasonable indicator, right? then i guess you could do the 25 starting and then see what happens. you know, ultimately, this is an economy still in a soft landing, so, if you ease too fast too quickly, the inflation problem comes back, so, it's a bit of an asymmetry here. i think the fed is very sensitive to the unemployment data. i think what bostic said the other day, and daly, too, if we are too behind the curve with the rate going up too quickly, i do expect the fed to act more aggr aggressively. >> 25 or 50 probably doesn't matter, as we said, and i think we're at the four-week average at six-month lows, so, there's nothing in the jobless claims number that are concurrent, at least, in terms of reading the labor picture. does this change any view and what is your view on the second half of '25?

where is the economy? because we all know, this could happen pretty quickly and i mean a slowdown. >> no doubt. and i think that's -- 2025 will really be about what are you going to do with fiscal policy? trump made a big case today, i'm going to put elon must income there to start looking at spending, right, and start evaluating that, say he -- we're getting a big change in the fiscal spending picture. so, i think that's the drivers for next year. this sort of phase we're in right now, where the fed is really tin control of the economy, lowering rates if it has to, to control the unemployment rate, i think that really matters currently. we will see what happens after the election, but i do think the fed will react, though, to this negative data if it comes out. so next year is the fiscal picture. i think that's totally there. >> ben, a month ago, for, you know, a lotl folks are like, it's going to be a hard landing. in 2022, people were positioning

for a recession that was supposed to happen in 2023. we had an earnings recession, but we didn't have that recession. that's been pushed out, there's a host of reasons for that. when you think about next year, what are the probabilities in your mind, it sounds like you're prepared for softer data, specifically employment data. what is the chance that we do finally have that recession that a lot of folks were planning on last year? >> yeah, you know, dan, if you think of the u-curve, resteepening to flat and i think that's what we're currently discussing. we don't exactly know the picture. next year, much more steeper curve indicates we're in a lot softer environment. again, it does, i think, depend much on what happens in washington with fiscal spending, how dramatic that will be cut, yes or no, against what else is being promised, cuts, as well, right? so, that does matter, i think. but it does show that we are in a more and more decelerating phase of the economy. hard to predict when a recession will hit, but it could happen if you particularly bring, you

know, fiscal policy to a halt. >> ben, thank you. good to see you. ben eamons, fed watch advisers. what is the first thing that you will look at when that print hits, aside from, obvious overall markets? >> how the bond market trades, one, dollar trades, gold trades. is there a move in the vix? and is the knee-jerk reaction higher s&p or lower? if bad news is in fact bad news for the market. >> what's your take? >> similar, right? and also -- yeah, i think bad news is bad news, but do -- then, to follow that on, would that make a 50 more likely, right, and is that bad news also? >> yeah. so, it will be interesting to see the odds and how they change post 8:30. >> i think it's fascinating what's going on with asset classes, because commodities and bonds are telling you recession is coming. and it's coming a lot faster. equities and credit are not. so, we all recognize how important it is, and back to august, as much as some of it was technical, some of it was carry trade, it was a growth

scare. let's be clear. a real growth scare is something that's going to scare the you know what out of these markets and right now, we're within a whisper of all-time highs. >> a growth scare, you should probably take some chips off the table. a lot of folks will make an argument about valuation and the luke, especially if you are in the camp of we're going to have an earnings recession. guy uses this term all the time. some of the companies that have been driving the performance, they've been outearning. at some point, they're going to pull back on that capex, which is going to have this kind of circular, you know, sort of experience, i think, for the economy that's really relied on this stuff right now. so, to me, i think that makes sense and i think under most sce scenarios, you probably have a retest below 5400 on the s&p. we a news alert on broadcom. revenue guidance for the next quarter in line with expectations. seema mody has the details. seema? >> melissa, two things seem to be impacting the stock here. when you break out third quarter segment revenue for broadcom, semiconductor sales came in a

bit weaker than expected. broadcom's ceo reiterating on the earnings call that he is seeing strength in artificial intelligence and says hyperscalers are scaling up. however, fourth quarter revenue guidance came in line with estimates at $14 billion. those still short of some of the loftier expectations out there on wall street. broadcom does project artificial intelligence in 2024 to bring in $12 billion in sales, that's higher than last quarter, driven by ethernet networking. that is a sign that demand is growing as it works with meta and google to build their in-house chips. shares down 7% in afterhours. still up over the last three months during the same time frame shares of nvidia are down. separately, you know, melissa, we are watching shares of intel here. there is a report that the company in an effort to restructure and shore up capital is looking to sell down some of its stake in mobileeye. not a big surprise here.

but we are, of course, reaching out to intel for comment. back to you. >> seema, thank you. seema mody. so, broadcom, not good enough. >> this has been a build that's been going on for more than a year right now. i look at their customer co concen concentration, apple is 17%, we know there's a ramp into this iphone 16, so, that's totally separate, but it's kind of related if you think about a.i. being on the phone, that should be a big driver for it. i just think about, you know, the story in general, so, the guidance wasn't enough. that's what we saw with nvidia, and then what we also saw from the hyperscalers when they reported, the cap exwaex was fi but wasn't as high as some people expected. and that's the knock-on effect if you are a dell or a micron or, you know, broadcom, whatever they call it these days. so, that's what's going on over the last few weeks. >> their nonsemi -- non-a.i. business, kind of their brickmo

stabilized. that's not necessarily a glowing word. and we're hearing that broadband is particularly weak. there are headwinds in the space. this is, as we pointed out, the relative performance of an avgo to the s&p, it's up by 20% from that june 17 high, which was also when nvidia kind of printed its high. coming up, with the u.s. steel/nippon deal on the chopping block, is there hope for any deal getting done in the space? we'll look at the state of play. and the othes feeling the impact. and why the moves in dick's, berkshire, a jndetblue should be on your radar. don't go anywhere. don't go anywhere. more "fast money" in two of something bigger? thank goodness we called his cardiologist because these were signs of attr-cm, a rare and serious disease...

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welcome back to "fast money." u.s. steel clawing back some of yesterday's losses as new details emerge on the government's concerns over nippon steel's proposed acquisition of the company. meanwhile, cleveland cliffs, whose unsolicited bidfor u.s. steel was rebuffed last year continues to drop. for more on the state of play for a steel deal, let's bring in pippa stevens. >> hey, melissa. national security concerns have been cited for why nippon's $14.9 billion proposed takeover

of u.s. steel could be blocked. but now, reuters is reporting it is specifically around having enough supply for critical i infrastructure, citing a letter from the committee on foreign investment in the u.s. that was sent to both companies. now, nippon declined to comment on the report, but said last night that it had not received any updated related to the cfius process, and the american steel industry will be on much stronger footing because of nippon's investment. for its part, u.s. steel has said thousands of jobs will be at risk if the deal falls through. and would raise serious questions about the company remaining in pittsburgh. now, shares are now trading below where they were prior to december's takeover announcement, with wolf research saying the stock now looks oversold, and that the stand alone value is more like $35 to $45 per share. bigger picture, we've seen protectionism on the rise and blocking this deal has gained bipartisan support, with presidential hopefuls trump and harris also speaking out against it. japan also, of course, a key

u.s. ally, and the largest foreign investor in the u.s. now, in terms of another suitor, potentially swooping in, in the last hour, cleveland cliff's ceo, whose build for u.s. steel was rejected last year, telling cnbc he is working with his banking group and that he's ready to go after they submitted a much lower offer last year. melissa, this has been quite the saga. >> it really has. pippa, thank you so much. pippa stevens. so -- interesting that the cliffs ceo might actually get some of the assets that he wanted before at the lower price now. right? >> yeah. well, that worked out -- could work out super nicely for him. >> right. >> so, i don't know. i don't -- obviously, this is very political, there's no question about that. i wonder, though, if there is some way to craft some solution here, where -- and we were talking last night, steve brought up, well, what if they help cleveland cliffs buy it.

i don't know if that's the best use of our taxpayer money, i'm not -- the politics of it is sort of disturbing. i think the deal should go through. i don't -- but it doesn't really matter, politics is what is sort of the only thing that matters at this point. we were talking the other day about dubai world, was looking to buy ports that included u.s., there were several u.s. northeastern corridor ports and the deal was definitely on, you know, in great distress, and ultimately, they crafted a solution. this won't be as easy, but i don't think the possibility of that is necessarily over. >> yeah. >> i also do think, if either -- if this were in a deep blue state, or a deep red state -- >> any state other than a swing state, basically. >> sort of, yeah. exactly that. >> well, to that point, i mean, the clutches ceo said he would be willing to invest in any and all union representative assets owned by u.s. steel that will be

shut down. so, he specifically points out union represented assets they would want to acquire, which really seems to -- it seems to be asking for the biden administration to step in, say, you know what, you're the buyer here. >> and -- and they're in a bit of a cat bird seat here, as well. because if this is not going to go through with nippon steel, if i'm the ceo there, i go behind closed doors with the government, say, we'll swoop in here, but we need some guarantees, we need some sweetheart deals in terms of tashgs. all these different things. and we'll step in. that is one of the reasons, i think, at this level at cleveland cliffs, you can maybe own the stock. it hasn't been a great performer, clearly, but it puts them in a favorable position, i think. >> i think you want to own u.s. steel here. i think the standalone on this company is interesting. we're hearing things out of the ceo is that this is a company that is thinking about a cost kind of conservative approach to how they're going to allocate

capex. they are going to shutter some assets in the absence of a nippon deal. they are going to get a half billion dollars of a breakup fee. if you look at this company and you think about where they've traded historically, six, seven times ebitda, this stock is probably worth 45 bucks, so, i -- that's in a world where we don't see steel prices fall apart and they've been okay, but either way, what we're hearing here is that maybe there is more demand and less supply in the u.s. steel industry, which, again, i think a lot of this is politics, and to be clear, let's emphasize what we said all along. japan is the largest fixed asset investor in our country. this sends a terrible message. >> the japanese digital transformation minister specifically said that he believed this was just a way of getting union votes. so, it does not -- it's not like the japanese are sitting back saying, oh, oh well. >> which makes me think there is some, maybe, some way out, where you have -- the unions get more. >> could be. yeah. there is a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next.

the ups and downs from today's session. what you need to know about jetblue's takeoff. the fall in dick's sporting goods. and berkshire hathaway's retreat from record highs. those details, next. plus, all the headlines from the auto space. production halts, sales numbers, and why analysts are slamming the brakes on one major automaker. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. in times square. we're back right after this. at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy wo the service, ai transforms your entire business. your people work better, your customers are happier, and todd... well... he's practically euphoric. practically. so, let's get to work. (♪♪)

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welcome back to "fast money." a few fast mover catching our tr trader's attention. let's start off with dick's. the athletic retailer beating on the top and bottom line, but posting lukewarm full-year guidance. the stock is now down nearly 10% this week. who wants to talk about dick's? >> i'll do it. i know tim is going to tell you he likes dick's here. the only issue i have, when you have that sort of price performance, you're going to need to get above, you know, a much higher barrier, and we're seeing this kind of again and again. i wonder what it says about discretionary spending this is pretty discretionary space. this is something we came out of earnings season not that excited

about. >> let's move onto berkshire hathaway. snapping a nine-day winning streak. baron's out with a report saying the company looks pricey after its recent run, which brought its market cap above $1 trillion. share finishing almost 3% lower, which is a pretty big move for berkshire. >> yet, i think, if you believe a selloff in the broader market is coming, somewhat counter intuitively, this is a stock you want to be owning, because of what they're doing. they apparently are paring down to get ready for the inevitable selloff, able to buy things a lot cheaper than they are now. i get the selloff, i get fully valued. i don't think you want to run too far. >> and finally, shares of jetblue topping the tape. the airline raising revenue guidance. the company pointing to a strong summer travel season and seeing it got a boost from travelers rebooking canceled flights. shares rising in the afterhours, as well, after a filing that the company's third largest

shareholder has amassed a 9.98% stake in this company. my how the tides have turned for this one. >> the july bookings were a lot higher. they talked about jet fuel prices being a tailwind here. and it's airlines on the trade. if you look at the entire sector off that august 5 low, delta's up almost 17%. this is a trade, i think you're staying in this trade at these levels. again, we went from a place where everybody wanted to own hospitality to suddenly we're seeing these headwinds. airline stocks on a relative basis, you stay best of breed and stay with delta. all right, coming up, all the headlines from the auto space. and it's gametime. the nfl season kicks off tonight, and we are getting a look at how the league's most successful franchises rank on the valuation scale. the top team, and who has the most room for upside, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast.

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welcome back to "fast money." a slew of headlines from the auto industry today. big-time production hiccups for stellantis and gm catching a downgrade. phil lebeau is here to break it all down. hey, phil. >> hey, melissa. let's start off with ford. look, overall, we're seeing slowness in the auto market domestically. but these ford numbers in august, this was a pretty solid month for them. overall, sales increasing, what, almost -- more than 13%, evs up almost 30%, hybrids, they continue to do well, as they pivot into that market, which has strong demand, growing almost 50% year over year. and yet when you take a look at shares of ford, truck sales were up 12%, 12.3%, not enough. now, let's switch over and tell you what we're talking about in terms of a softer market. the annual pace of auto sales, 15.1 million vehicles last month. that is below what we saw last year, well below what analysts were expecting. now, we've heard a few people say, maybe it picks up towards the end of this year. going to have to pick up lot

more than what we've seen so far. and i have to be honest, there aren't many people in the industry that are expecting that as we head into the fourth quarter. in terms of the demand that is out there, there's decent demand, but not great demand, and the production earlier this year from stellantis, it was as if there is great can demand. well what's been the result? stellantis has decided it will cut some of its jeep production. had to do this. way too much inventory. there's an inventory glut for stellantis dealers, when you look at jeep and ram, and as a result, they are cutting their production. by the way, with regard to stellantis, they were moved down to pure perform by wolf research. and they have a new analyst starting at wolf research, comes in, says, we'll put these guys in at pure perform. however, in terms of a trade, it's basically, don't expect much from stellantis, according to wolf, but even though gm is at pure perform, expect better results as we head into the fourth quarter from general motors. wolf research has general motors

basically saying long gm, short stellantis. that's the trade, according to wolf. bottom line is this, melissa. we're looking at a market right now that is in a wait and see mode. and people are interested, it's not like the consumer is saying, we're not buying at all, we're not seeing the level of demand that many people were expecting earlier this year. >> do we need interest rates to fall? and how good, how aggressive are the incentives right now? >> the incentives are improving. the prices are gradually falling. both of those are good news. but in terms of auto loan interest rates, they're sticky, melissa. they don't drop as quickly as the fed cuts rates. it's going to take some time for that to change. >> wow. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. >> you bet. >> gm. gm? you're in it? >> yeah, look, i like gm, i like the profitability, i like the stock. clearly it's had challenges finding the catalyst to match up with the performance dynamics. i would quickly mention, you mentioned hybrids. i think we have to talk about toyota. after a massive pull-back across japan, i love toyota here. the first quarter results, no

real surprises, but their strength versus the competition is extraordinary. >> gm showing signs of life, 48 and change. the recent high was 50. two-year high-ish. investor day, the first week of october or so. for the first time in a long time, the stock is starting to show signs of life. so, maybe tim is onto something here. >> been onto something for awhile. the stock's had a huge run, even though it's pulled back a little bit recently. the valuation of all of them is just ridiculously cheap. and normally, you know, there's -- >> value trap cheap? >> historically. >> historically, but -- but i don't know if there's enough discipline right now in their businesses, the way they run them. the balance sheets are in pretty good shape. i think that -- i mean, the multiples are so low, like, mid-single digits, but i don't know if people, like, well, i don't care, the cycle mail be ending and -- because if they do have to cut prices, then it won't be as cheap. >> right. coming up, we've got the mvf

for this football season. the most valuable franchise. we'll give you the play-by-play on who scored high in cnbc's inaugural list and the next team that could give the league a run for its money. and lvmh dropping on a jpmorgan downgrade. what's behind then a list call and more. and more. "fast money" is back in two.ade from morgan stanley, we're ready for whatever gets served up. dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates,

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welcome back to "fast money." cnbc unveiled its first official nfl team valuations. the dallas cowboys leading the pack with an $11 billion price tag, followed by the los angeles rams and new england patriots in a close third. the creator of the list, cnbc's michael azanian is here on set. you know who is on top, but we are curious to what team could unlock the most potential value ahead. >> oh, great question. well, this is the investing crew. ah -- i like the jacksonville jaguars. >> whoa. >> i'll tell you why. coming off a low base. >> yes. >> am i talking right? >> i like it. >> revenues on the rise. they have the franchise qb, trevor lawrence. getting a lot of capital for

renovation of their stadium over the next few years. half public, hatch private. going to really ramp up the in-stadium revenue, especially if the steam really starts making the post season. so, i like the jacks a lot. they're at $6 billion. i could see a 20% increase over the next few years. >> wow. this list is -- is fascinating and it's always fun to think about team valuations. the last sale was for the washington commanders, 2023, $6 billion deal. how did this valuation of the commanders compare to the valuations you came up with this year? >> so, this year is slightly higher. you know, full confession, my historical record of matching sale prices with valuation, sometimes very good, sometimes -- >> sounds like how we are with picking stocks. >> the commanders, i was very close, because we knew dan snyder was going to sell the team. sources i had were telling me about the price. the denver broncos, the team right before that, i was off, 25% too low. i was below the $4.65 billion

price. but the team before that, the carolina panthers, that david tepper bought, $2.3 billion, i hit that exactly. so, what i'm telling you, 1 out of 3 of being exactly right, so, that's a good batting average in baseball, but probably not a good stock-picking average. >> network's lucky to have you, along with max myers, one of the original founders of this show. let me ask you this question, though. what do you think -- it's been lower left, upper right in terms of valuations for these teams. what's the existential risk to the nfl, if there is one? >> my personal feeling is it's gambling. it's betting, you know? sports betting is now such a big part of all sport. the nfl is the biggest sport in terms of viewership, by far. and my feeling is, number one, if there ever is a problem where a star player is found to have bet on his own team or something like that, or an official of the game taking a bribe, that would be a big problem. not only in terms of viewership, but all the sponsorship money

that's come in via sports betting over the last couple years. >> my business -- great having you at cnbc, great talking about this stuff. how about other leagues? we talk about stocks coming off a low base. how about leagues, the wnba, the soccer leagues? where are you seeing the most value built up? and again, a lot of that coming from tv contracts that never existed and different formats for streaming and places to actually generate that revenue. >> i'm really bullish on the wnba. in fact, i'm very bullish on all women professional sports. i think that it's been very undervalued for a long time. it's finally starting to get the publicity, the viewership that i think the talent deserves. so, i think we're going to see, like, for the nwsl, the professional soccer league, we've seen it with the wnba as part of the nba's made ya package. i think the media rights are going to start increasing significantly in women's sports. >> so, i'm curious. for the wnba in particular, which i care a lot about, going to a new york liberty game right after this show, what do you

think sort of -- i mean, to me, it seems like we're in inning one or two of the acceleration of the wnba. what do you see looking a few years out? >> yeah, i think that's right. and i think that even all sports, sports that we've seen big gains in values like the nba, the nfl, i still think they're relatively early in the valuation process, because i don't think that most people have grasped how big these sports are in terms of how many consumers actually relate to it, following these days on social media. you know, it's not just the tickets you buy at the game or the suites you rent, you know, or the restaurants you go to, but the clothes you buy, you know, the images you have, the branding is huge. and you mention that dallas cowboys are most volumable team, one of the reasons is that jerry jones was the first to recognize this. he was the first one to bring stadium sponsorships onboard, you know when he brought on pepsi and he brought on american

express. it hadn't been thought. he really understood that beyond the actual event, you know, there's much more excitement and much more opportunities to increase revenue, and we're seeing that with the international games now. you know? this friday, there's a game in brazil. if i said that to you five years ago, you would have thrown me off the set. >> so, we spend some time, more karen than anyone, looking for value, right in the stock market, and so, we've had a guest who started the lacrosse league, he's been on the show here. when you look at a league like that, they haven't even started selling teams yet. so, is that starting to bubble up. are you looking at sports like that? >> yeah, i think lacrosse is more of a niche sport. women's sport is the next area to surge, because basketball and soccer, immensely popular around the globe. it just happens that the women professional teams in soccer and basketball didn't get the publicity and the viewership. lacrosse is kind of a niche thing, so -- i think that -- i would put them sort of behind

women's sports as sort of the next opportunity there, but sports like rug by and stuff lie that, there's opportunity there, too. >> so, you are done with the list. what's next? another list coming? >> in two months, hockey. >> guy. >> we know the number one team there. right down there on broadway. >> mike, thank you. >> great to be here. >> for the full list of the official 2024 team valuations, two to cnbc.com/sport. the 2024 pro football season kicks off in less than two hours. the ravens taking on the chiefs tonight. and tomorrow night, the packers face off against the eagles, streaming only on peacock. you are laughing, because i didn't know any of this happening until i just read the prompter. do not miss cnbc's game plan conference september 10th in l.a., bringing athletes, owners, and investors together. scan the qr code on the screen or visit cnbc events.com/gameplan to register. coming up, another l for the

luxury trade, as lvmh downsizes its flagship tiffany store in china. what it says about the high-end consumer and the chinese economy. that's next on "fast." growing your business is easy once you know the moves. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

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welcome back to "fast money." lvmh shares sliding today. the luxury goods giant saying it would shrink the square footage of its flapship tiffany store in shanghai by half as it struggles with the real estate slump and consumer slowdown. jpmorgan downgrading chinese equities from neutral to overweight citing economic uncertainty. is this just the start of the struggles for investments in this country? i don't think it's just the start, but -- another data point. >> it's -- yeah. well, for me, l in my helm trade, louis vuitton, as opposed to the x in my helm trade. is -- it's disappointing for sure. it's a surprising move to me, i mean, they must be very bearish on it. it's already -- not new, right? so, this has been happening for awhile. and when you think about lvmh, a long-term holder. they spend a lot of money to make them look great.

and the idea of them halving in size a flagship store like that certainly doesn't bode well. and the biggest geography for them is -- it's asia, which is china and korea, but -- and then the other thing is, japanese yen, which has been such a good thing for them, because people just rush to japan to come back a little bit, i don't know if that will cool off what were very hot sales in japan. >> the reasons cited, my opinion, have been out there for a long time. so, i don't think -- you know, geopolitical risk, i don't know where that came from -- i understand it -- >> not new. >> nothing necessarily new. i think they're late to this dance. a name like alibaba sort of hangs in there okay against a backdrop that hasn't been great. closed around 82. so, maybe china in the aggregate, but individual names i think can continue to go higher. >> yeah, look, i'm long baba and i believe it's not really about the economy. i think if you go back to luxury, though, we see -- i see more pain ahead for luxury.

and lvmh, it's gone down five straight days even before these downgrades. there is a dynamic for discretionary high end, which was imperial vie use, it's got issues. >> up next, final trade. what is cirkul? cirkul is the fuel you need to take flight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at walmart and drinkcirkul.com.

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♪ be by your side... i'll be there... ♪ ♪ with my arms wrapped around... ♪ time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. tim? >> a safety spot in the energy sector under pressure. energy transfer et, phone home. >> karen? >> yes. we talk about a.i. all the time. and to me, i'm sticking with the one, meta, that has so far shown the highest return on investment. >> dan? >> it really acts the best of all the mag sevens, it's earnings. i'd say jetblue. there's probably more room to the upside. if they got the opportunity to take some share versus tim's

delta, that could be interesting. >> surprise dan pick. an airline. guy? >> how about that? >> we dig michael. he's bringing the energy. >> welcome back any time. >> any time. >> yeah. >> nasdaq making all-time highs, melms. >> thankfos r watching "fast money," "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. right . my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to entertain, it's also to educate and teach you how this business works. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc. tweet me @jimcramer. people keep making a ton of mistakes