has taken a 10% stake in jetblue and now discusses with the ceo about a board seat. it's friday, september 6th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it's friday. it's a very important friday with the jobs number and fed meeting looming later this month. ahead of that, the u.s. equity futures are lower right now. they have been dragged down by chip stocks. if you are looking, the nasdaq is down 210 points. dow is off 127.

the s&p is down 35. yesterday, we did have a little bit of questions about what would come after adp came in with weaker than expected numbers. it was a mixed day for the markets yesterday. dow down 220 points. s&p down 0.3%. the nasdaq rose by .25% of 1% which was well off the highs of the session. you look at treasuries and the ten-year at 3.7%. the two-year at 3.71. new in the last your, the uk competition watch dog over google's ad tech practices. it found google harmed com competition to favor its ad tech services. shares of google parent company off marginally. it is not clear that is necessarily moving the needle. it is just another issue and challenge that google is

confronting with anti-trust around the world. some of the information with the chip stocks. biden administration rolling out new export controls on critical technologies, including quantum computing and chips. this moves as china is making advance in the chip industry. the biden administration rolled out this morning for a 60-day comment period. there will be exemptions for countries which add similar controls at japan and the netherlands have done in the past. in broadcom, shares are lower. the chip maker current quarter guidance coming in below estimates similar to nvidia in what that company said last week. this company's raising its

outlook of a.i. revenue of $12 billion from the fiscal year up from $11 billion previously. third quarter sales and earnings also beat analyst estimates. chip sales are down across the board. intel, dead cat bouncing, from the low of 19. i would argue every friday is important. >> because it's the weekend? >> because it's friday. ♪ everybody's working for the weekend ♪ intel, meantime, considering options around the stake in the automated driving systems provider mobileye and offloading holdings in the company. reuters reporting qualcomm is considering the possibility of acquiring some of the assets, but no formal offer has been

made. shares of berkshire hathaway snapping a nine-session winning streak yesterday and disclosures last night show the firm sold bang of america stock. that brings the total sales in the bank to $7 billion since july. it used to be the second largest holding. it has fallen to the third largest holding after the sales. it is the last bank that remains in berkshire's portfolio. had a number of banks over the last several years, berkshire sold off the stakes. if it gets below 10%, near at this point, then berkshire would not have to report. they own more than 10% and they have to report every three days when they do sales like this. in other bank of america news, a whistleblower claims some of the banger bankers in ad

millions of dollars of stock. the complaint alleged the bankers shared transaction details with investors before the stock sale in india announced this spring potentially allowing the investors to front run the sale. the report shows the bankers contacted investors via whatsapp to share details. they take complaints seriously and have not found anything to support the allegations. an update on the controversial deal for nippon steel. the japanese company to buy u.s. steel. the ceo of rival producer cleveland cliffs supports the biden administration efforts to block the deal. his company would be open to acqu acquiring assets from the rival should the deal fall through. this should not deter the government's action. >> we are committed and we have a commitment to the u.s. government to invest in the

assets that we are going to acquire, particularly if the ceo of u.s. steel makes good on his shameless attempt to blackmail the president of the united states and the commonwealth of pennsylvania, with shutting down the office in pittsburgh. >> just for context, u.s. steel earlier rejected cleveland cliffs $54 a share buyout offer in favor of nippon's. andrew. sales cloforce buying a sta own for $1.9 billion in cash. they make tools to back up data in cloud-based applications. it is valued in $3 billion. it is the second deal announced by salesforce. on tuesday, it said it was buying ten-ex for an undisclosed

sum. >> another one we have to figure out. could be ten-ex. another one where we don't need to be put through this. >> right. >> can you make it easier for us, please? nvidia still has problems. i would think it's ten-ex. it might be tene-ex. >> it has a "y" in there. >> it is two sy-- why are we having this conversation? >> you started it. >> tenyx started it. one oak. venader didn't help. neither did --

>> made up words because we've run out of names. >> how about drug names? i love those things. >> based in california and los altos. when we come back, the countdown to the jobs report is on. we have predictions next. later, former president trump outlining new economic proposals yesterday at the event at the economic club of new york. we will show you what he said. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities. experience, expertise, execution.

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welcome back to "squawk box." on our planner today, the data point of the week is due at 8:30 a.m. eastern to time. we'll get the august employment report. that is what everybody is waiting for to figure out what the fed will do next. polled forecasters can expect a gain, for those playing at home, 161,000 is expected and the unemployment rate to tick lower by .10%. 161 on the payroll and 4.2% on the unemployment. then at 8:30 a.m., we will monitor the speech and bring you the highlights as well. we will hear from former fed

governor christopher waller and steve liesman has an interview with austan goolsbee later in the day. that's coming up at 11:30 a.m. eastern time. we will have a lot of analysis throughout the day as we get the number and try to make sense of it all. nobel prize winning economist joseph stiglitz is calling for a 50 basis point cut this month. here is what he said in the cnbc interview in italy overnight. >> i would vote for a bigger rate cut because i think they wenttoo far and it would actually help on the issue of inflation and on jobs. >> stiglitz said a 50 basis point cut should be on the table regardless of the jobs data. the jobs countdown is on and joining us is michelle gerard,

the ceo of nat securities. michelle, if we base it on the jobs number or the lowest job openings since 2021, what should this tell us today? >> all of the labor market data has been on the softer side. we actually are below consensus. we got an overall job gain of 125,000, excluding the government, 145,000. i think most importantly, the eyes on the unemployment rate. quite different than the consensus, we have a further uptick to 4.4% after just rounding to 4.3 last month. i think the real focus this morning is going to be on the unemployment rate given the uptick from 4.4 from 4.4 last

month. >> why is your outlook different? >> i think the numbers with cooling and once the unemployment number starts to rise, it continues to move in that direction. we sort of long been believing the u.s. economy was going to weaken. i think we're finally starting to see that come to fruition with respect to the labor market. for us, all of the signs are suggesting things are cooling. that's why a bit against the consensus. we are actually with stiglitz in terms of expecting that the fed will cut 50 basis points when they meet in september. >> you think we're still headed for a soft landing on this or you think a recession's in the cards? >> becky, we have danced back and forth on this. we have had recession in our forecast for quite some time. we have taken that out and we basically have stagnant growth.

we don't rule out negative quarters. we're not necessarily convinced you will be able to an vevert a recession. we believe the fed will move more quickly to get back into the neutral camp. we feel we will see a front loading of the rate cuts. having gotten to this point and the fed waiting to make sure inflation was on the downward trajectory, but having waited long enough to do that, we are already seeing tangible evidence of slowdown. there are still 200 basis points above. you have a lot to get back to neutral. a lot to drag out with small cuts would increase the odds you are not able to achieve a soft landing. our forecast is the fed front loads the easing and quickly getting back down to neutral and then in that scenario, you may be able to, indeed, avoid

recession. >> i guess, michelle, some of the option markets were showing kind of on both sides of the straddle very rich premiums on both sides to oeither go long o sort. nobody knows which way. i was thinking how many jobs reports we've had on friday that oh, my god. this thing is like the energizer bunny. we had 10 or 15 of those where the labor market was more resilient. there was always a possibility, i guess, an outlier. a 50,000 print. are there betting sites on this? doesn't someone have a pretty good idea? last night at that game, kansas city and baltimore, the under/over 47. the score was 27-20. there's a way somebody should know what is happening.

so, in your gut, you think it's maybe 100. 100 private sector jobs which would be a disappointment. not minus 100. not 300? >> no, but historically when you see a negative print or start of recession, it does tend to come out of nowhere. the average miss, not out of nowhere, but things are fine and then all of a sudden, you are running around 100,000. exactly. the other point to remind people, the average miss on the forecast and modelling of the unemployment numbers is 100,000. 70,000 to 100,000. this is coming from an economist, technically, if you are within the 70 to 100,000 range, you are within the standard deviation of having nailed the number which is not how the traders and markets feel. i guess that's the point. if you are trending in unemployment growth below

100,000 at any month within the realm of possibility to see a negative print. that's why when you are seeing job growth that is kind of getting to levels we are looking at, it really becomes a point where the labor market is weak enough that it could be adding or seeing a job loss in the month. >> excellent. michelle, thank you. >> thanks so much. >> see you soon. >> bye-bye. >> the election coming up. these numbers are more and more important. >> it is interesting. you hear people from joseph stiglitz to john paulson saying they think the fed should cut 50 basis points. it is not a political argument made from the projection from the right and the left. >> we pin it so quickly and in july, we have one bad number and immediately people were talking soft landing off the table and

going with the "r" word again. we are there already. >> all of these stupid rules and waiting for the inverted yield curve forever. how long was the yield curve inverted? so much longer -- eventually we will have a recession again. >> michelle took the possibility of recession off the table. that's aggressive. never? >> she is going back and forth. >> no, you need time and there's always one coming, it seems. eventually. coming up, new deadtails on florida evnven entrepreneur looking for a stake in jetblue. and after the break, what's next for red lobster? that's coming up next.

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investor vladimir galkin raising his stake in jetblue. galkin has been investing in the carrier and holds under 10% of the shares making him jetblue's third largest investor behind blackrock and vanguard. he met with jetblue's ceo and cfo this week. he is a florida man who cashed in on game stock in the meme stock craze. the parent company of 7-eleven rejecting the $39 billion buyout offer from

canada's company as too low. japan's seven & i doesn't consider the hurdles from the regulatory commission. andrew. a bankruptcy court approving the red lobster plan to exit the bankruptcy protection. after the acquisition closes, investors will replace the current ceo with a former ceo of p.f. chang's. i like red lobster and p.f. p.f. chang's. >> you haven't been to red lobster in 20 years? >> easily you're wrong. >> really? i haven't been to one for so

long. >> i don't know if it is still here. >> come on. >> we're on 41st here. i'm sorry. 43rd. 41st and 7th. >> don't lie to me. >> i have a story to tell about it. >> i was in an olive garden in february driving back from indiana. he stopped and ate there. >> i take it back. you get lobster? >> at olive garden? my story? i was a young man and first and probably only time i was hit on by a waitress. i will always remember. she put her number on the back of the bill. >> andrew, my first date was at olive gargarden. >> you asked for a story. the that's my story. >> did you use that number? >> i did not. >> why not? did you say there was a mutual?

>> this is too long. >> how long ago? >> a long time ago. >> it affected you deeply because it was so unusual. >> so unusual situation. trust me. it was unusual. coming up thon the other si of this -- >> she wasn't 70? >> leslie picker will be with us. as we head to break, we will look at the s&p 500 winners and losers. >> whyidt u ller dn'yoca h? >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next level moments need the next level network. but all you did was plug it in, you didn't do anything neither did you exactly exactly exactly exactly

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welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures this morning. they're weak. not that weak, but some trepidation, you might think, after the entire week's been

weak. i keep saying weak. there is a big jobs number coming and there is a bit of anxiety about that after adp and after some of the other metrics that we've been watching the past couple weeks. we'll know by 8:30. the ipo window was looking promising -- was the operative word in that sentence until it abruptly slammed in july. li leslie picker is here with more on what will or will not happen next. good morning. >> reporter: it has to do with the trepidation you are talking about. if you recall in the middle of the summer, the ipo market had the makings, based on the conditions for an open window. valuations were trading around records thanks in part to the revival the mid and small cap companies from which new issues derived multiples. looking at a soft landing and

rate cuts and the july jobs numbers and ensuing volatility reminded us how fragile the market conditions can be and level of uncertainty can be helped or hindered by the august report out in a few hours time. at this point, ipo advisors say don't expect much in the way of deal flow to arrive until 2025. names to watch are stubhub and shien. a bright spot ipo banker say is aftermarket performance is strong. david ludwig at goldman sachs tells me he expects further improvement in the ipo market next year. he says, quote, there may be slowdown across ecm around the election, we expect that to be

short-lived creating a number of kin windows for issuers. guys. >> leslie, i know it is unfair to bet. what does 2025 bring? >> reporter: i think it brings a lot of activity because of the massive pipeline particularly with the companies. they have been sitting on companies for a while and haven't been able to exit. if you see rates coming down and markets continue to stabilize a little bit, especially to the upside to help the valuation gap that you've been seeing with the buy side and the sell side, maybe you just get a really brave company that goes out and does well and unleashes more. that is all it could take at the end of the day. >> leslie picker, thank you. we'll see whether it's warranted at 8:30 with the jobs number. still to come this morning, former president trump outlining

new economic proposals yesterday at the event at the economic club of new york. we will show you whaheait sd next. reminder, you can get the best of squawk box with squawk pod and listen any time. we'll be right back. (other money manager) your clients rely on you for all that? (fisher investments) yes. and as a fiduciary, we always put their interests first. (other money manager) but you still sell commission -based products, right? (fisher investments) no. we have a simple management fee structured so we do better when our clients do better. (other money manager) huh, we're more different than i thought! (fisher investments) at fisher investments, we're clearly different. ( ♪♪ ) morgan stanley is partnering with the women's tennis association to remove boundaries... ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone.

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remarks at the economic club of new york yesterday, former president trump pledged to reduce the corporate tax rate for companies that actually make products in america. he described plans from the revenue of tariffs. >> we will be able to build ships again. we will be able to build planes again. we will be able to build our military again from within, all from within. we will create the biggest, greatest and strongest middle

class in the country. we will have tens of millions of jobs in manufacturing and defense and all of the sales and support of export jobs. our auto industry will be the biggest beneficiary. in short, it will be an economic renaissance just by using our heads and being smart. smart tariffs will not create inflation. it will combat inflation. >> i was there yesterday. i'm just finishing a stint as a board member of the economic club of new york. a stint of five years. i was there yesterday. i will give president trump credit for showing up. we have extended an invitation to vice president kamala harris. she has not confirmed with us yet. i understand some of his plans and some of them i cannot. i will say the idea that you are going to raise a lot of money through tariffs and not have it be inflationary does not make a

lot of sense to me. it is one or the other. if you put 200% tariff on chinese cars, he did that intentionally so you don't buy chinese cars. you are either changing behavior or raising money. if you are raising money from it, it is inherently inflationary. your consumers are not getting low prices. >> did anybody push him on that? >> we're not allowed to. there were four questions that were asked set up in advance by other people who were allowed to ask questions and not allowed to follow-up. it is a controlled format. >> like so many bad, populist ideas, on both sides. >> on both sides. >> biden left the tariffs on. >> as i have gotten older and crankier and i look at this and i think everything the candidates are saying is hard to understand. >> the child tax credit. >> it's crazy. thinking you are going to raise

enough money on the triariffs n only to balance the budge and roll out spending and pay for child care expenses for everybody doesn't make sense. >> and even the 15% just on domestic companies is industrial policy. on one side, you will get industrial policy. that's all they do on the left. the right should give you a choice. they shouldn't be pandering in the same morass. >> the idea of not taxing tips. people ask me why i'm obsessed with it. if you are earning your money in tips, you are making $2.05. you take it for the tips. if you get the bulk of your income, it should be part of it. to have the candidates talk about not a deficit property and raise money. >> lighthizer has his ear. we have michael coming on who

might explain it. elizabeth, you will just tell me cutting taxes on the wealthy as if corporations are a code word for the wealthy. i don't understand that. >> i don't think that's true at all. >> he wants to cut taxes on the wealthy. why is that for the wealthy? >> i think we know capital income represents for the top households represents a huge amount of their income relative to wage income at the bottom. when the corporations do better or when they are getting tax breaks, that flows to the top households. >> that's a bad thing? seriously, elizabeth. who do you think provides the jobs in this country and the people that work at those companies that pay the taxes to afford everything we do? the government can't provide -- >> the government is, in fact, the largest employer in the

country. >> exactly. where do you get the money to pay those employees? >> i think there is a false reality. trickle down economics have worked for the past 50 years. >> seriously. where do you get the money to pay those employees? >> revenue from both household and corporations. >> it all flows down. >> how many jobs created by the jobs act? >> elizabeth and michael. chief economist and university of maryland professor and served under president trump. michael, can you look straight in the camera and tell us about the tariffshizer idea? >> my view on tariffs is they're an important tool for purposes of addressing some of the practices particularly of china

and currency mamanipulation. i look to address the trade agreements. i think you are correct that they would only be inflationary if the jobs don't come back to the united states if manufacturing doesn't get on-shored. it would primarily be incentive to move those supply chains to more resilient locations as opposed to raising a significant amount of revenue from them. >> you don't think we're going to pay for child tax credits and balance the budget from the tariffs? >> my estimation is that is not anywhere near the revenue to do all those things. >> all right. back to you, elizabeth. what kind of tax policy? how high would you like to raise the corporate tax rate and capital gains rate? >> on the capital gains rate, i think we saw this week vice

president kamala harris come down from where president biden had been. several economists were comfortable with where president biden was and joseph stiglitz. we have to look at a holistic picture of the income at the top. that includes biden and harris' proposal with the billionaire minimum income tax including taxing unrealized capital gains for the 0.06 households that make more than $100 million. that, to me, is a sound proposal. i think on the corporate tax rate, the president and vice president propose a 28%. previously to the jobs act under donald trump, it was 35% and the economy was quite strong. really where we've seen the growth over the last three years is in the clean energy and

manufacturing construction sectors that are getting additional targeted tax breaks and spending policies from the inflation reduction act and chips act. where we need targeted innovation for growth, that is a much better strategy than setting a high corporate tax rate. i don't really understand the donald trump proposal of the 15% tax rate for the companies that make stuff in america. we have a policy to do that. the domestic production act. it did nothing relative to the inflation reduction act. >> michael, the democrats love to talk about bill clinton's economy. he lowered the capital gains rate to 20% back then. can you just -- and 28. it's not 28. it would actually be 33 all in. that would be the highest rate

in a long, long time. can you connect the stdots why that would be a negative for the stock market or the business creation? how would that work? >> yeah, what we're hearing is basically confiscatory policy. if you look at the tax cuts and jobs act and reductions and corporate income tax, there is economi economic literature that shows it moves to workers and hours. the idea of what we need to do is take more money out of the private sector and i think what we they're trying to do is incentive size government debt. having a more competitive rate to borrow money and have the government run industrial policy with the government deciding what we're going to invest in and what new products would be generated. it is most stark election voice

in my lifetime. is it going to be the government? do we think what our neation needs to move from the reliable energy strategy to the unreliable one in the i.r.a.? what is always interesting to me is tlisten to the economists on the left saying tax cuts generate growth, but only when it's to generate growth in the sectors they want. do we think the government knows everywhere we need to invest or should it be left to the private sector to figure out the products and services brought to the american people? >> it is a completely different world view. we talk about it on this show every day. elizabeth, is it roosevelt. is it fdr or the "night at the museum" guy?

i think it is the fdr guy, right? >> yes. >> okay. >> president franklin roosevelt, yes. not teddy. >> all right. thank you both for coming on and having a calm discussion about these weighty issues. we have to figure it out. oh, still me. coming up, space news, boeing's starliner is set to return to earth without astronauts, hopefully they get home eventually. as we head to break, here are the stocks under pressure this morning. "squawk box" is coming right back. from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley

♪ from wherever you are. ♪

♪

welcome back, everybody. in space news, boeing starliner is set to depart from the international space station tonight and return to earth. that spacecraft will not be crewed after suffering problems during launch that led to nasa's decision to keep two astronauts on board the iss until february when the next ship comes along to take them home. starliner's scheduled to autonomously undock from the space station just after 6:00 p.m. eastern time and it is scheduled to land just after midnight, sometime early tomorrow morning. it was helium leaks, i believe, that were taking place, but also the boosters, the thrusters. i think five of them failed. >> i'll bet you it is okay. and it comes back fine. could you ever get -- no one is going to be on it, we hope it is not crucial, but if you were crazed enough up there, would you take a shot? >> getting on it?

>> i'm going home now? >> rather stay? >> i bet it is 90% chance it is okay. >> you would fly on a 90% chance? >> i might fly on 90% chance. if you were stuck up there. >> i would wait my turn. >> five of the boosters. >> you're right. i'm not -- >> the impact of latino fan dom on sports business, wel lk'lta to javier gutierrez, the former ceo of the arizona coyotes next after this. ♪ ♪

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raise this up for me just a little. [narrator] meet dr. applebaum. a dentist with three children. perfect teeth. in-progress. he gives the same level of service to his patients as he does his kids. and when he invests... nothing beats service with a smile. [narrator] this is tessa carter. culinary connoisseur. knows her ingredients like the back of her hand. same goes for her investments. so, i expect total transparency. lose the cilantro. [staff] yes chef! [narrator] say hello to peter armstead. type a cpa. he always knows exactly where his clients' money is going. so, of course, i expect the same with my money. [narrator] and meet betty ambrose.

leatherworker. bootmaker. custom bootmaker. her hands can craft the finest tuxedo boot you've ever seen. what can i say? i'm hands on with my money too. [narrator] and what do all these investors have in common? we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] that you do. every day over a million multi-millionaires trust schwab with more than two trillion dollars of their wealth. welcome back to "squawk box." the platform to promote latinos in sports teaming up with nielsen to conduct a first of its kind study of the impact of latino fan dom, viewership and

other trends across all american sports. joining us, javier dgutierrez with impact x. is it x, sports group, chairman and ceo, also latino in sports co-founder and former arizona coyotes ceo. good morning to you. >> good morning, guys. >> talk to us about what this endeavor is all about. >> latinos in sports is a new enterprise. when i was appointed the ceo there, i was the first latino ceo in the history of the nhl, one of only -- the only of 153 teams in the top five major sports leagues and i said that can't be. that can't be. when you talk about the importance of sports, when you talk about the importance to commerce, to culture, to community, these are engines of economic activity, influencers of culture and latinos, i say this all the time, sports is important, latinos are important to sports.

you need those voices at the seat of -- >> what does that mean? >> for me, in terms of practice, we want to identify great talent, and introduce them to folks in the sports industry to say, they should be part of your decision-making process, they should have that voice and so that's what this organization is all about. it is about having convenience, it is about talking about content and data and talking about the impact of latinos to -- >> what is the percentage of latinos in the management of professional sports today? >> it is very low and i don't think it has been captured. as i told you, i was the only ceo, obviously -- the moss family also run inter miami, they're the owners. that's all you have. i don't think that's enough in terms of representation, but more importantly, it is about the discussion and the conversation. that's why we were so excited about this report from nielsen to capture latino fandom, to show how passionate they are. >> what is the percentage of players in terms of different professional sports?

i'm sure it is different for different sports, maybe baseball more than other professional sports in the u.s. obviously soccer or football in a huge way. but how often do those players end up in management later? >> that's a good question. i think very few of them do, very few of them end up as owners for sure. i don't know the percentage by the -- >> why do you think that is? there is an effort taking place along -- not by race or demographic per se, but there is clearly a move by some players in a whole bunch of leagues to move to ownership positions or into management positions. >> i think that's part of this conversation we have had in the past, which is the commercialization, the professionalization of sports is now i think opening up those doors. you're talking about things that used to be family run businesses and now they are big business. these are not just teams, these are business enterprises and i think part of that effort is to

open those doors to former players, to diverse talent from other industries. as you know, i came from private equity and i think that's part of -- >> here is my private equity -- to bring the conversation we're having off air, on to the air, as a former private equity man, and a man in sports, do you think that this whole move afoot in many leagues now, where private equity is going to own stakes in some of these businesses is going to change the game itself? >> i think you and i don't see eye to eye on that. i think where it is going to change it is not just as teams, as business enterprises. when you think about the real estate opportunities, the intellectual property, this is the most valuable intellectual property in the world, the brands, the logos. you have the nfl in brazil tonight. the market expansion opportunity. that's something i've been talking about with my new venture with all the private equity funds that want to be in sports, but want to move beyond the core asset of the team. and look at all these other opportunities. i don't think it will change it on the field, on the ice, on the

pitch. i think as a business it will change. >> the reason i raise the prospect of it changing things, you had owners, in many cases families that own these teams oftentimes for many decades, generationally, and so, when you get into a situation where every call it 10 or 12 years you have to create some kind of exit environment or moment for some minority stake player in this, it just means there is going to be a lot more turnover. i imagine of the teams in their entirety at some level because there is going to be some people who say the only way to do this is to get the full value for everybody, to get out, so then there is that consistency question. especially if you look at teams that are owned by a family that owns it for a generation. that seems like it is going to be a different thing. and then other team owners who will do things that might arguably be financially irrational in the short-term for several years because they think they can win a championship and they say, you know what, i'll

spend the money now, because i think i can get a championship and then unclear by the way how much the championship even if you get it is economically worth and whether you have some private equity in a minority player, even if they're a minority, but they have a voice at the table saying, no, no, no, we got to keep the cash flowi going. >> we're in the nascent stage of it all. we're in the first inning as they say in the first quarter, it will be interesting how it evolves. what i'm excited about is the fact that you have this professionalization of sports that is happening. you know, obviously the governance is very limited in terms of minority stakes that are being allowed in the u.s. internationally, they have a different game. but, you know what i'm excited about is that it also opens up the aperture to talk about not just your fan, but your fan in waiting. when you think about the opportunity to capture new audiences, existing audiences in a new way and that's what we were very excited about this report, to show latinos are fans

right now. they are avid, one of the facts that nielsen unearthed that i'm really excited about is that latinos are 11% more likely to buy from a sponsor of a sport or a team that they follow. so you can monetize this. and they're young. the census just came out, the most dominant age for latinos in the u.s. is 14. the general population 59. this is a cohort that is entering the prime fandom years, prime working years and so i think it is a great opportunity for sports. >> javier, thank you for coming in. the jordans match the tie. >> shoutout right there. >> works out perfectly, thank you. we should remind our viewers, it is all happening on tuesday. join cnbc and boardroom's game plan conference in l.a. on september 10th. it is in l.a. and it is a hugely

high powered event, bringing athletes, owners and investors and innovators together. you can scan the qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/gameplan to register. we will see you there. evan spiegel, rich paul, kevin durant, jessica alba, bob manfred, so many more. meantime, it is just past 7:00 a.m. it is about 7:03 a.m. on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box." i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick. we are getting the jobs number. couple of other big stories happening as we speak. the uk's competition watchdog is now saying it provisionally found practices harmed competition by using dominance in online display advertising to ad tech services. and cleveland cliff ceo saying he supports a biden administration effort to block the near $15 billion deal and would be open to as you might

imagine acquiring some assets from its rival should the deal fall through. speaking to cnbc yesterday, he added that threats of plant closures should not deter the government's efforts. and intel reportedly considering options around its stake in automated driving systems, providing mobileye, off loading 88% holdings in the company. so many businesses are now just basically being dismantled. >> yes. let's look at the futures now. we are under a little bit of pressure ahead of the big jobs report. right now the dow futures down by close to 150 points. nasdaq off by 230. s&p futures off by 37. that jobs report less than 90 minutes away and steve liesman is here with a preview of what to expect. we're thinking not great things necessarily, based on what we have seen in recent numbers. >> jobs. >> jobs. >> it is a little more mixed than that, i would suggest.

let's do the fed part first. as far as the fed goes, a payroll number, weaker, 50 basis point on the table at the next meeting but there is more at stake here. this is an expansion that is more skeptics than believers all along and markets are on edge about how weak the economy is and whether the landing might be harder than it is currently priced in to markets. 161, pretty good number is what is expected here after that big disappointment in july. unemployment rate ticks down to 4.2%. some people came into the workforce find some jobs. average hourly wages not too bad, 0.3. 3.7, another month of real or inflation adjusted wage gains. d economists writing the pivot from inflation to jobs is complete. markets and fed policy that had reacted to hundredths of a percentage point on core inflation readings will not respond to tenths of a percentage point in the unemployment rate.

here we go. here's how fed policy's position going into the number. you have a modest bias for a 25 cut at 59. the rest of the percentage is f for 50. 62% probability of another 25. this is what has been consistent about the market is the call for 100 of cuts before the year is out. some special factors to watch, possible rebound from auto retooling, hurricane beryl and excessive heat. a drag from weakness that morgan stanley finds in 15 of the past 19 years in august. mixed data as i was just saying to becky, beige book sent consumer spending fell in most of the fed's 12 districts. adp weak. jobless claims level at a decent level. and some of the jobs data, home base, it has been strong. the level of economic data, where we're at right now, it has been around what you expect for a soft landing. but the momentum in getting

there has been down and there is a whole lot of worry that the trajectory passes through that soft landing and proceeds to a harder one. becky? >> so, that much is really riding on this? if this is in line or roughly in line with expectations, they're only going to cut 25 basis points, if worse than that they're going to cut 50. >> i believe that the default position is 25. and i think what you're looking for are big numbers to shake them off of that default position. exceptionally weak could bring you 50. i don't think there is much concern over exceptionally strong report getting them off of 25. they're going to do 25. there is a sense they are even if they cut 25, 50, 100, they're still going to be restricted to the economy. i could be wrong about the default rate. we got a chance to talk to austin at 11:30 today to find out where that is. there is a way you could -- a lot of concern the 50 will spook the market. you could imagine the fed finds

a way to sell 50 as a down payment. >> why would they do 25 now and 50 at the next one? >> i don't know that, joe. i don't understand how the market is -- >> that's what i mean. penicillin, we'll start off with a little which won't really work and then we'll give you a real dose. by then, you might be dead. it is really weird, isn't it? >> i don't quite understand the -- >> i want you to -- it is the fed futures. i want to make you responsible for telling me, si asked michele this, are we going to be like, 200, this jobs market, amazing. how many times have we said that? >> a lot. >> or, wow, this is finally -- >> it is finally catching up and this is it. >> which is it? i want to know now. >> um, i have -- put it this way, i have no reason to doubt the consensus except for the fact that my data show -- hang on, i just did these

calculations before i came on -- the actual number compared to the revised number in the 2020s, guess, plus or minus -- >> 150. >> who is better than becky? >> 150? >> 148. i was looking at it from the 1960s, we did, like, 111 in the '60s. 106 -- we got really good in the 2000s, down to 77, 68. the pandemic messed all the numbers up. i want to go back and look and see if we're doing any better since the pandemic. but, remember, we had huge numbers that would come out either way, and the pandemic messed up the revisions. we were getting better. >> look at the annualized revisions they just did. that tells you how bad they are. >> i don't think that's right, becky. i think if you look at the series of annualized revisions, they have been within a certain context. this one was a blowout. it may have a lot to do with the

whole immigration thing, if you talk to goldman and how we count them. we could do a whole other segment if you want something. >> we're not counting properly. some way, shape or form. it is instantaneously. i think you have numbers that are better? >> of the high frequency numbers are very good. it helps you understand the direction. >> july was bad. this will be good. >> joe, that's a really good point. if the market -- if the job market is healthy, that's what you expect. you can get a clunker and then the general trend reasserts itself. but if things are weak, they tend to go down. watch these revisions today, watch the -- some of the sectors adding to job growth, and see if it is broadly based. we look at the diffusion to see how broadly based job growth is. i think it is a good tell for how the jobs number is -- >> between now and the election, we have this and then next month. >> right.

>> what about -- >> october jobs report. >> and then -- >> september jobs report. >> and then first friday of november. >> i think it is after the election. >> i think it is the 7th. >> the 7th, right. >> i'm sorry, 8th. >> the fed moved their mti rit ay ghaw. ee♪ (alarm sound) ♪ amelia, turn off alarm. amelia, weather. 70 degrees and sunny today. amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes with godaddy airo ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box." >> savita is here. savita is here. >> i was talking to her until the second we came back. >> it is a good sign to be able to be so comfortable. then we get the best info. >> nice to see all three of you at the same time. >> do you know why you're here? we're counting down to the august unemployment report for

insights on how it may impact the markets and the fed. let's bring in savita subramanian, some good stuff in your notes. the vix typically increases 25% between julyand november in election years. how much -- is it already -- >> it already has gone up a lot. >> it has. >> and then it has come down a lot. but i think the idea is that you see a lot of volatility from july to november of election years. and we're, you know, this year is true to form. we have seen the vix hit, you know, kind of a post covid high back in july and, you know, we're back down. but i think the name of the game is don't be a hero. >> don't be a hero. >> don't be a hero. ♪ don't be a ♪ long ago. >> break out into song and dance. >> i saw that in your notes, don't be a hero, stick with income stocks, quality stocks.

>> income and quality. i think we are at a point where the large cap value benchmark looks amazing. i think utilities, real estate, companies that offer inflation protected yields, income for folks that are parked in money market accounts that are about to see a little bit of a drop in their cash returns. so i think that's the idea here is just to park in safe total return type vehicles where you get paid to wait. and i think there is a lot of election uncertainty ahead. so we have got, you know, kind of a divisive view on fossil fuels versus green. so what do you do with energy at this point? that's a big question mark. you got immigration policy, so there are a lot of binary kind of outcomes that i think could roil certain parts of the market. >> still at 25. you say the bar will be really high. >> 25 basis points for september, yes. >> and you do think things are

weakening, but not to the point where anyone is going to panic. the number today, it is going to be like around 150, you think, for something. >> i think our guys are forecasting 200. they're more optimistic. >> are they? >> yeah. and i think that, i mean, really if you saw something weak, you could get a 50 basis point rate cut and that's certainly on the table, it is being talked about more and more. but i think the idea is we're about to see our first rate cut. this is important. like, that's the -- that's the move. and it has been a while. and the fed has done a good job of moderating inflation. maybe they started too late. but they, you know, they quashed it and we're now at a point where they can actually start cutting interest rates. >> you don't like illiquid things or deep cyclicals. you're giving some credence to the slowdown. >> i am, yeah. a lot of our models are suggesting that, you know, everything that i look at, the data on consumer spending slowing, not terrible, but it is

slowing down. we're seeing a normalization in a lot of these hot economic measures. and then on top of that, what i think is interesting is that we haven't really seen a lot of turnover in areas like residential real estate or, you know, kind of illiquid assets. private equity, we haven't seen marks, private credit. those are the areas where unless long rates come down considerably, which, you know, i don't think that's as easy to forecast, it is an environment where we could actually start to see price discovery in some of these areas like residential real estate that could reset lower rather than higher. so normally when the fed starts cutting interest rates, affordability becomes better. >> you think it is going to become worse? >> in this cycle, we'll see the true value of homes. >> we were talking to leslie picker about the ipo market, about private equity exits,exit

whole bunch of things and she was trying to be optimistic and you're not. >> i think things are okay. companies have a long period of time to work out their issues. but the problem is that private equity -- >> that's not really okay. the kids are not all right. let's be honest. right now, nobody exiting anything. it is completely locked up and everyone is sitting on their hands and that's going to become a problem at some point. so many people are actually in the private equity space taking on debt, sometimes on top of their whole fund. >> at a much higher cost, exactly. so, i think that's the issue. there is a lot of private equity, there is different types of private equity and private credit, some good, some bad. what worries me is that a lot of capital was raised between 2017 and 2020. so private equity, i think assets doubled during that period. >> you think that advantage is -- >> well, that -- was anyone talking about 5% interest rates and inflation with a three handle? no, we were all in lower for longer, everything zero interest

rates forever. so those kdeals were struck and expectations that were probably much more benign than what we're facing today. that's what i worry about. i think the s&p 500 is fine. these are companies that are marked to market on a daily basis, they reflect the reality around us. this is a liquid vehicle of large cap companies, they're scrutinized, these are the most scrutinized companies in the world. i think that this is an area where you have a lot of transparency. what i worry about are the areas that are less transparent than u.s. public equities. >> savita, thank you. >> thank you. >> good luck on your ride home. >> what we were talking about. >> indeed. thank you. >> when we come back, before we go anywhere else, superstar swimmer katie ledecky joining us, sharing her olympic success story and talking about her new

memoir "just add water" ann inspiring read on what makes an olympian. and we heard from mark cuban yesterday on the harris tax plan. today, we'll get another take. "squawk box"olng rli on after this. >> announcer: what was first podcast to win a pulitzer prize? the answer when "squawk box" returns. ad aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪)

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>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what was the first podcast to win a pulitzer prize? the answer, the american life. the episode "the out crowd" won the board's inaugural audio reporting award. welcome back to "squawk box." katie ledecky is the most decorated female american olympian in any sport. the paris olympics she won four medals including two gold, and it was her fourth straight olympic games winning gold for the 800 meter freestyle. this summer she published a memoir about her life titled "just add water." i sat down with her earlier this week in new york city and asked her about what it was like in paris that made these olympic

games so special. >> i think they did an amazing job of placing the venues near iconic places in paris, and it was just right in the city. and i think there was just a lot of excitement around that. >> did you feel that, though? >> i did. i did. i did. we had a full arena every single swimming session or it felt like that at least. usually at these kinds of meets, sometimes there will be an empty section during prelims. not even during prelims. it sold out it was every single session, which was amazing. >> what do you think about the olympic movement? it feels like this is super charged? this paris experience super charged the entire thing in terms of television ratings, interest broadly. l.a. is coming up, obviously, the next summer olympics, you have in between that milan, after that brisbane and french alps. >> yeah, it is exciting. i think hopefully l.a. will put on a great games.

i think there is a lot of excitement about paris, just coming back to the united states, hearing how many people watched it and, you know, hearing all the stories of where people were when they were watching, and, you know, how many of their kids were watching and enjoying the swimming competition or other sports. it is always really fun to hear those stories. >> is l.a. going to be your finale? >> i don't know. i don't know. i don't know if i can call that my finale yet. i would love to make it to l.a. and compete there. but, you know, you ask me in four years and who knows what i'll say. i might say i want to go another year or two. i don't see myself going to 2032. but 2028 is definitely going to be a goal and when i get back into training, sometime these next few months, i'll start setting the course, setting the plan for how i'm going to get there. >> you haven't been in the pool that much. >> i've been in the pool four times in the past month since my last race. but not for probably more than

30 minutes. >> do you ever just, like, jump into a pool and hang out in the pool the way most of us do? >> yes, yes. my mom goes to a water aerobics class in maryland at our summer league pool. there are a few mornings that i accompanied her to water aerobics class and i splashed around in the water and swam a few laps, but i enjoy the music. >> never in a lake or ocean. >> i do not like lakes or oceans. i stay away from open water. >> as a rule? >> yes. >> tell me about this book. did you enjoy writing this book? >> i did. my memoir "just add water" came out in june, and i think what has been fun about this experience has been hearing the stories from people of how much they enjoyed reading it or a certain part of the story that i guess of my story that resonated with them or how i wrote it. so, i'm proud of that. i'm happy that i could kind of summarize some of what has

happened in my life and in a way be able to thanks a lot of the people that have supported me along the journey through the book because a lot of the chapters are dedicated to those people that have helped me along this journey. >> i was going to say, i got to sit in some seats near your family, who were going crazy as you know. we also know johnny ledecky, a friend of cnbc, are you thinking about them while you're swimming? >> i am. again, some of those distance races i have one side of my brain that is very focused on what lap i'm on and how i'm pacing my races and then i have one side of my brain that is kind of this positive voice in my head that is feeding me good things to think about that will keep me happy and moving forward in the race. >> a sort of business question for you, i think business people are interested in this, you spent a lot of time thinking about the process as opposed to the result. where as i think a lot of people think they're supposed to be focused on the results.

what is the difference for you? >> i'm not very focused on the end results. and i think that's maybe taken some time for me and i at the same time i do love every day of training. and just going to the pool and trying to improve. and whether the time on the scoreboard at the meet shows improvement or not, if i'm improving every day in practice and i'm enjoying it and having fun with my teammates, that's what matters the most to me. so, when i've gone to meets the last few months, i've been asked about i the historical markers and the olympics the things i was achieving and those things don't really enter my mind or those aren't the goals -- my goals are never around history. they're all about time and it is all about enjoying the journey and i think sometimes i can get caught up in results.

but those are the moments i have to remind myself that i'm enjoying the process. so, who cares what the results say. >> katie ledecky's memoir "just add water: my swimming life" is on sale now. from all that, she wears and ouria rwe're always talking abot scores. and you always ask me what my score is, right? >> what was it? >> today it is terrible, i went to the u.s. open last night. but the -- hrv, your heart rate variability, for me, like, at my best is in the 20s or 30s, she's like over 200. for anybody who wears an oura ring, you'll be, like, oh, my god, this is an unbelievable -- >> it is good to have heart rate variability? >> yes, you want very high heart rate variability. it means you're very calm. >> really? >> yeah, it is about your -- it is a balance thing.

>> surprising with an olympic athlete. >> unbelievable. i thought the thing was broken. >> does she wear it in the pool? >> she does. >> will you wear that ring when that waitress gave you her phone number. >> i think that was before or -- >> it didn't go -- like -- >> you're very fascinated with it. >> you're very fascinated with the story. >> missed it last hour. we'll do it again. >> you're incumbent to be here, because it never happened to me. that's why -- if it happened to him, there is something wrong with me. there is something very, very wrong. >> internalize that for the rest of the show. >> there is a lot more inspiring stories like that and ideas all taking place next tuesday in los angeles. you can join us in person. game plan conference taking place on september 10th, a hugely high powered event, bringing athletes, owners and investors and innovators to explore dynamic intersection between business, sports, music,

entertainment. scan the code on the screen if you want to join us. evan spiegel, kevin durant, rob manfred from major league baseball, rich paul, jessica alba and so many others will be there on hand. when we come back, we will talk corporate tax plans from both presidential candidates. and coming up at the top of the hour, nfl commissioner roger goodell will be our special guest from brazil. that's coming ahead of tonight's game between theacrs a pkend the eagles there. big part of the international expansion. we'll talk to him about that and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. revitalizes a community landmark. from selling a business to giving back to where you come from, a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your family and the way you bring people together. that's life well planned. ♪

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watching the shares of berkshire hathaway snapping a 9 session winning streak yesterday. and new disclosures late last night show the firm sold a new tranche of bank of america stock. that happened since tuesday, bringing berkshire's total sales in the bank to nearly $7 billion since july. coming up, investor and entrepreneur ben narasin will join us to discuss the harris and trump tax plans. that's interesting. here are the futures as hweead toward the august jobs report. we're going to have the numbers and the instant market reaction

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>> good morning, andrew. a group of 88 current and former ceos from across the private sector are out with a letter this morning laying out their support for harris saying she would be the best candidate for business. now, this is a wide ranging group, it includes facebook co-founder dustin moscovitz and ceo of box and yelp. james murdoch is on this list, a democratic donor, but not someone who had previously endorsed harris and so is chris larsson, he co-founded ripple. the list also includes some with ties to wall street that includes tony james, former president of blackstone and a substantial number of former public company ceos, dan shulman of paypal and aaron mu lally of ford. the letter highlights her selection as the best way to support the economy, and saying

the business community can be confident. people involved in coordinating this letter tell me it was organized by some of harris' top wall street backers. and it comes as she is tacking somewhat toward the middle this week including with that softer capital gains tax proposal. softer than biden's. both' shen trump has significant ceo level support as well including heavyweights like musk and lutnick, but this is a show of force from the group of business leaders coming together to throw their weight behind harris. >> thank you so much. meantime, investor and venture capitalist mark cuban calling into the broadcast yesterday with his take on the latest details of harris' tax plan. >> she said that, you know, billionaires should pay more than the average working people, firefighters, et cetera. and if you just look at the numbers, right, if a firefighter or somebody who is working their butt off is making $150,000 a

year, they're paying 24%. and she came out yesterday and said 28% for capital gains, which when i talk to them, i thought was fair. >> the harris campaign, he says, listening when designing the plan, but not every venture capitalist agrees on this benefit. joining us now with a different take on the tax proposal from harris and donald trump is ben narasin, he founded tenacity venture capital after his time at new enterprise. good morning to you. >> thanks for having me. >> you're on the other side of this. i'm not strongly on the other side. i think both parties are doing a terrible job. but i'm particularly scared with the democratic proposals around not just capital gains, but the idea that you would tax unrealized capital gains. that would be crushing, likely going to be struck down, so i don't know if it is worth the conversation. this is like throwing stuff out, on how we're going to soak the

rich to make people that aren't yet rich feel better and they're going to crush, if they pass these, you know, on the one hand she says we're going to take your ability to deduct startup expenses from 5k to 50k. but if you make any money, we're going to take it all back from you, even if you haven't been paid. imagine you start a business, you raise some money, now your business is worth more, and you have to pay on that. with what? >> let me ask you a question. where do you land -- we talked a lot on this broadcast, with ro khanna, you probably saw, this idea that the best approach may very well not be -- i think i'm in agreement here, clearly, with taxing unrealized gains. it creates all sorts of complications. there are lots of people, though, that have had great success that effectively take loans against those unrealized shares and never pay taxes on them. or are able to push out the tax bill for considerable amount of time. >> sure. >> you think that's fair?

>> it is a reality we live in. i know this say total sort of -- >> my question to you is would you say that piece of it needs to be fixed? >> i don't know how you can. because you punish other people. it is like we have free speech, that allows people to say hateful things and as long as they don't cross the line, we get to do it. if you start to crush people of wealth for certain practices, you crush everybody else with the same thing. why -- how would you fix that? >> the distinction on that front is that most people literally 99% of the american public can't do that, they can't afford to do that, it is impossible, so it is a different -- it is like a whole different universe. it is a different world. when you say, you know, would crush everybody, wouldn't crush everybody, but the other piece is, you know, it wouldn't even affect everybody. >> my issue is always the same. i don't have a strong confidence that we can understand the unintended consequences so when we pass legislation to continue to -- i was fascinated by this new -- whatever it is, the efficiency council that trump

likes to pull off. sounds like a great idea. i'm not saying i'm a trump fan. >> if you look at policies. >> i write in bloomberg. the last two elections i've been so disgusted by the choices and i'm disgusted now. >> if you were to vote -- let's say trump was not a mean tweeter and, you know, didn't know stormy daniels, just purely based on policies, is there anyone in their right mind that is pro business that would come down -- we found 88 guys, half of them you can find them every -- do you know what it is based on? >> the liberal bastion that is goldman sachs. >> based on not closing the border and not deporting -- i lot of people think it costs money not to allow illegal -- okay, so i would rather -- if it is a half point less gdp, fine, shut the southern bordborder, dt

all the people that came in ille illegally. >> that's like a policy choice about -- >> that's not what it is. goldman -- >> but, like -- >> fine. >> you take it as an economic issue or you don't. even then we're talking about abortion. >> do you want to leave the southern border open? >> i don't, but i want to find a way -- but i would like to find a way to get more of those people into the system in a legal way. >> gdp will be hurt if you don't -- if you do -- >> the question is there a way do it in a different way. >> everybody gave trump a hard time for his policies on the border and then they all continued. but nobody gives him a hard time. >> just in general, raising capital gains, raising corporate tax rate, doing unrealized gains, price controls, no business leader in their right mind except 88 outliers that we can find for a story believes that. >> the price controls thing is crazy. i didn't realize they moved to cuba. if that's right, i guess i'll

smoke more cigars. it is insane. businesses are highly logical functioning organizations that have to compete with other businesses. prices aren't controlled by the fact that the u.s. government tells us what to charge for corn or hamburger meat. you're in a competitive market, whole foods is worried about trader joe's, whole foods will match prices with trader joe's because prices are simply higher. that's pretty elite. >> some of the smartest people in the world that went to great risk, personal risk, like bill ackman and elon musk, and joe -- some of the smartest guys in the world are willing to go out and know they're going to get all -- i get, all this backlash, supporting a insurrectionist because it is so clear the policies aren't even close. as a person that understands business and the economy, i think it is -- >> what do you say, though, to the people who say, look, rule of law is -- should be the game. >> like lawfare?

like calling facebook and saying don't put the laptop in any of your articles? that kind of -- >> no, the rule of law, like, what happened on january 6th. >> giving a speech and then -- >> yes. you want to defend it, go defend january 6th and -- >> that's all -- >> that and russian collusion. >> but we have a country that is allowed to elect as president on a popular vote, i get we have a system that is slightly off from that, and i -- as i said, not supporting either candidate, but we will get the candidate the people want. and that is -- >> and -- >> litigated. >> right. >> and they don't have to go hide after they vote for trump. they don't have to go in shame and hide after voting for an insurrectionist. >> in california, when trump was elected the first time, i know one guy that admitted he voted for trump. it doesn't matter how you vote in california. i can vote whoever i want, it will not impact a thing. >> if you had to vote then --

>> i will still write in bloomberg. i wish he was more effective ais a speaker and i think he would have been elected. romney could have done a good job. he's the only honest politician i've ever seen. >> this is our -- >> that's what i would say. what i have seen with people laying out their plans with the two candidates laying out their plans this time, it is offering more and more money to try and buy your vote. >> it is pandering. it is ridiculous. everything biden did pandering which got ruled illegal. let me throw a couple trillion dollars to student loans. why would i want to do that? there is a lot of votes there. but, look, even reagan sort of gave citizenship to a lost mexican americans and got a lot of that support. it happened across both parties, will always happen, it is a pathetic pandering, it is sad, it is -- look, our system sucks. it is still the best in the world. so we live here. >> this is our counter to the pro-harris -- a guy still not voting, still not voting for trump and it is preceded by 88 -- it is beautiful. >> if i had to, i would -- i met

trump once when i lived in new york city and had an immediate allergic reaction, but i would argue that there is probably enough good people with good policies that it is more likely i would swing that direction if someone put a gun to my head and said you have to choose one of these two candidates. but it makes my skin crawl how bad the situation -- >> as good as it is going to get for the maga crowd. >> thank you. that is its worse week since mid-july. more on that sector coming up in a little bit. and then later, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart with reaction to the august jobs report, and what it may signal for the fed's next meeting on rates. that jobs report, just 40 minutes away. "squawk box" will be right back.

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is that love island? jobs report. expected to show 161,000 jobs added last month. up from 114,000 in july. the unemployment rate expected to tick down slightly to 4.2%.

the futures ahead of this data you can see, a little weak. on a percentage basis not so great nasdaq a little more. next up, talk tech stocks. and roger goodell will join in from brazil, the game agast the packers and the eagles. we'll be coming right back. . and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot. max makes construction faster, safer and more cost effective than ever before. and with max doing the heavy lifting, even more people can join the team. solar energy is changing the world, aes is changing the world of solar. hi, my name is damian clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on

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sector. joining us now, neuberger senior research analyst. this could in a large part depend on what the macro picture looks like. that's at 8:30. always bullish, probably. which should you bought on this? there's good value already. >> good morning, joe. i expect concerns about the cyclical headwinds to remain a factor but also i see select opportunities. we're in a period where there's tremendous change across technology and the broader economic landscape pap company like amazon. their cloud platform, amazon web services over $100 billion in revenue well positioned to capitalize on the next generation of workloads

including generative a.i. retail, pockets are pressured in the consumer, continuing to redefine the experience with prime more one-day delivery, more video content and i think the advertising business is underappreciated there. i continue to like microsoft where their azure cloud platform is well positioned to help enterprises build up their digital infrastructure and round it out with apple. we'll see next week the beginning of infusing apple intelligence, evolving the iphone experience. that will play out over the next year and beyond. i continue to like that name as well. >> do you have a view on whether we're going to have a hard or soft landing at this point? would make a difference whether you stayed long as you are in techs. right? >> joe, i think what we'll see is a mixed landing in that the pockets of the consumer, in the

low and mid end i think we'll continue to see pressure. other parts of the mid and high end of the consumer are faringalities better. europe in some areas, globally, seeing softness. that persists. china, of course, remains relatively soft as well. what we're seeing with enterprise customers, when we speak to them, they're looking to both adjust to the changes in the landscape cyclically and more importantly, perhaps, trying to invest and really transform their organizations, because as we think about the second half of the decade, this tremendous opportunity, both in terms of the technology, changing business models in some cases and really transforming their operations, and that is what helps drive technology spend, even in the face of this challenging period. health care, drug discovery, fraud detection, financial services, digital manufacturing. all that will be incredibly relevant as we think about the second half of this decade.

>> the nvidia, is it a plus or a minus for tech at this point? >> joe iy thnvidia remain as plus for tech. they're executing incredibly well on their product cycles. sure, a little delay in wrap of blackwell, new platform. demand for hopper remains very healthy. i think the bigger story there in addition to the product cycle is really this broad ecosystem. you have millions of developers writing and investing in the nvidia platform, because nvidia's tools and technology are helping make those men and women and their organizations more productive across a whole range of fields. be it manufacturing, health care, studying climate change and so i think nvidia is a positive force. sure, remains volatile but the company is very well positioned over the next couple of years. >> thanks. dan, thanks. it is 8:00 on the a.m. and

you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. among today's top stories, investors are gearing up for the august jobs report. that is due out in just half an hour's time. expecting addition of 161,000 jobs. this report is expected to be critical in helping the fed decide what to do about interest rate policy at its meeting later this month. operator of 7-eleven convenience stores rejecting a takeover offer from parent company of circle k convenience stores. japanese retail giant serven & , antitrust in the united states. and competition in china reportedly taking a toll on tesla citing chinese data, "new york times" reports tesla sales in that country slipped to 6.5% in the first seven months of

this year. that compares to about 9% last year. tesla has not released a new ev in china in about five years. the defending super bowl champion kansas city chiefs taking the first game of the nfl season in a thriller against the baltimore ravens last night. this year the nfl is trying to further expand its global footprint by heading to brazil for a marquee matchup. packers taking on the eagles in sow poul. only on peacock. the only place to see it. joining us live from brazil, nfl commissioner roger goodell. roger, good morning, and thank you for being with us. this is a huge game tonight. a lot of people will be watching this. and you've got two huge issues that you're kind of wrapping into one here. one would be the international expansion of the nfl. the other is what you're doing with streaming. we could talk about both of those things, but start with the international market and expansion there first. you look at the united states where football is king.

330 million people, the globe, though, has 8 billion people. how do you get out and really make sure that you take nfl football everywhere? >> well, good morning, becky. it's great to be with you. the reality is, the media platforms are essential in that process. obviously we want to reach the most number of people we can through our media partners, because that's how they mostly experience football. but the reality is, when we bring our brand of our regular season games here, it create as whole new environment. it creates a, really, the spark that lights the flame. everything seems to really take off after that point in time. we have 38 million fans here already. we hope this will really ignite this market and really become passionate football fans. we're obviously continuing our games in europe. continuing games in the uk. we're going to spain next year. germany this year. hopefully back to mexico next

year. so we really believe playing the games is a big part of making our game global. >> that is huge. i've read so many stories, seen so many things about people on the streets in brazil really excited about this and getting out. i also think about some of the cultural missteps we sometimes make, and go back to thinking about when they made the car nova and tried selling it in mexico. nova means "no go" in mexico. you guys took over a brazilian soccer club, the corinthians, took over their stadium, and they hate the color green so much they almost painted the grass green a decade ago. really hate green there and you're bringing two teams that both have green uniforms there. packers and eagles. how did that happen, and how do you make up for it? >> you try to pick the two best teams. i think we have. two historic franchises.

yes, they wear green but i think we've gonon e gotten over that. the uniforms tonight will not be insulting everyone. not an issue for us. >> eagles wearing black and white, and also the packers gave the corinthians goalie a green jersey to wear out, too. just -- there's a lot to learn as you go international. what are the best things you've learned and the things you really want to push into in the next years with those? >> i think the best thing is that people love the game when they have the opportunity to experience it. it's more than a game, as you know. when you go to an nfl game there are events around the game that really make it a special day. we like to unite people. we like to bring people together and obviously the people down here have that kind of passion, that kind of enthusiasm. so i think they'll see it different kind of experience with nfl football, and that's what we're anticipating. that's why i think so many

people are excited about being there tonight, and obviously we're going to have great media coverage. whether it's south america, all the way around the globe, all the way back to our home. on nbc. and on peacock. >> roger, how do you think internationally about time zones? your actually in a decent time zone for players in the u.s. obvious wildown there. europe, asia. obviously schedules are better, for example, than the nba, or some other leagues. leagues that have more games more frequently, where the time difference will become a problem. how far can you go and how frequently do you think you can really do it long term? >> well, you know, we can't change the time zones, but, you know, i would say that we learn from every experience. the trip down here talking to players on both teams yesterday, the trip town here being 11 hours, 11 hours plus for both

teams, they really didn't have the same impact and they think it's really the time zone. a big factor for the guys. you know, we play once a week. that helps. right? we can adjust. when they get back to their home cities tomorrow, they'll be on a similar time zone and also have eight days before their next game. so this is all a part of the learning about how many games can we play. the ownership has been great. they have really endorsed already playing eight regular season games. we hope to be close to that next year and i see a commitment to go further than that, if we get to a season of 18 in two, something ownership will very much endorse. >> you all have been slower to adopt some of the things that other leagues, maybe smaller leagues, rushed into a little more quickly. part of that has to be streaming. you have always been concerned to make sure everybody can see the programs wherever they are. but seems like it's working out pretty well with streaming on

peacock and other places. what have you learned through that process and what can we expect in the next few years? >> well, becky, the bottom line is you have to go where your fans are, and our fans are moving off on to streaming platforms. netflix is a good example of that. peacock's a good example of that. amazon's a good example of that. our fans are in different platforms, and we need to reach them. but at the same time, over 85% of our games are still available on television. we think we have the most fan-friendly policies for our fans and the media world of any league by far. 100% of the games for the two games participating. we really think that those policy are really beneficial to our growth, to our supporting more people watching nfl football, and the fans' enjoyment of it. streaming also bringing in technologies that i think will be really valuable to improve the experience for consumers.

i think, you know, there's more things that they can do with their platform it's and technology that i think is going to be very, very positive with our fans. >> roger, i want to talk about the implications of private equity minority ownerships in teams. how do you think that may change things over time? i wonder whether, look back 30 years from now, a lot more selling of some of these teams? you know, after 10 or 12 years, whether families that own them generationally will either feel pressure or other things to exit? whether different types of decision-making that will result as a function of having these outside investors? >> andrew, i think it's actually the exact opposite. when we started this, one, we wanted to learn from other leagues. good example, we took our time. we were deliberate. second, we wanted to make sure this worked for all teams, and supported our ownership policies, which we think have had a major role in the nfl

achieving the success that it has. we have one person on each team, that person is going to be making all the decisions. this won't change that. the 10% private equity interest will have a very silent role. they are -- no role in management. they don't even take suggestions from -- unless a team wants to say, can you help us with x or y. so i think the reality here, this is going to support our family ownership programs throughout the league. it will give them a chance to get some liquidity, which they could use to put back in their teams, their facilities, however they see fit. i believe it's going to strengthen our position, andrew. you know, this is limited to 10%. so it really isn't going to have an impact on that at all. >> roger, you mention, you were taking things slowly with that. watching how other leagues did with it. the general nfl approach to so

many things. also slow to kind of embrace gambling and some of the things that have come along with that. what have you learned along the way? seen as you kind of slowly seeing more and more gambling tied into this? what it means for fan awareness and what your potential concerns can be? >> well, becky, the first concern one we always start with, which is integrity of the game. how do we protect the game so people watching realize that they're watching real action, no influences from the outside, and that's critical for us. so we spent a lot of time educating all of our personnel from players to coaches to league office employees about the dangers of that and how to make sure we keep our game safe from that. on the positive side, it's another way for fans to interact with the game. gambling wept on for a long time before the supreme court reversed the ruling. obviously now that's spreading from state to state. we have taken a very cautious

approach. there are still fans who don't want it to interfere with their experience on television and we want to make sure we are sensitive to that. so it's really a balance, but giving fans an opportunity, if they so choose, to use one of those platforms to enjoy their experience even more. >> and have you seen any problems? do you feel like you have the proper safeguards in place and there aren't any problems? >> well, we've had discipline from about, roughly, 25 players and front office personnel and the league office. where simply they were involved or betting, even betting in the wrong location. fortunately, nothing serious. nothing that would impact in anyway the game. but our education efforts i think are taking hold, but we're always very sensitive. our partners, who are in this business with us are very

sensitive. we have a lot more data, follow it closely and take it very seriously. we have been out front about disciplining on teams, players or any other personnel involved in gambling. we deal with it quickly and forcibly. >> how do you think those packers/eagles game is shaping up tonight? where are you going to be sitting? >> i'll be up watching down a little bit on the field in a couple different areas just to get a feel for it. we're so -- this market is just passionate about sports in general. we have 38 million fans here, in this market. it's a huge fan base. we think this game will just light the fire. it's going to be tremendous for our international growth. i think it will be a turning point for all of our efforts in making our game global. so we're pretty excited about tonight, and i know our fans back in the states will be thrilled to be watching on peacock. >> seven games internationally next year? that's the plan?

>> i think at least seven is where we focus. right now we are definitely coming back to spain or going to spain for the first time. we'll be back in germany, back in the uk. we hope to be back in mexico, and we certainly intend to be back here in brazil. >> okay. roger, thank you very much. good luck tonight. we'll be watching. >> thank you, becky, and everyone. appreciate it. also, reminder, you can join cnbc and boardrooms "game plan" bricking together athletes, owners and innovators. scan the qr code or visit the website to register. coming up, the number of the day, week, month, the august jobs report is on the way at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. bring you the setup, the data and all the reaction with our jobs. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "squawk

box." right here on cnbc. a little more than an hour to the final opening bell of the week. down to the new york stock exchange. mike santoli what are you watching? i must know what you're really watching 13 minutes when we get the jobs number. >> absolutely. market are fixated on that, andrew. apprehensive. market showing a lot of sensitivity to signs of growth falters. the same time big tech provided no leadership or defense surrendering that foremost role. often happens goes to the crossroads ahead of a big number. s&p backing off to about 50-day average and at the level in the pre-opening indication below 5,500, finish the second quarter and level from mid-august finally kind of got reassurance that the soft landing seemed intact. better retail sales in walmart numbers and made further upside from there. at a decision point figuring if all of that still applies. look here at just how thoroughly

the disinflation trade has made its way through the markets. this is the gsci. the commodities and broadly defined ten-year treasury yield. obviously rolling downhill at this point. this is what the market left behind the inflation story and is focused on growth. payrolls. look at the stocks of the big payroll processing. this is a five-year chart goes back to essentially beginning of this expansion cycle. pretty much near the highs. defensive stocks, maybe benefiting from that. also reflects the fact overall employment levels are at a record. even though growth decelerated in the labor market you actually do have something close to a full-ish employment picture. at least starting from a decent point, andrew. >> mike, one of the big questions right now is, do we think the markets of really priced for a soft economic landing, or something worse? >> i think right now -- you

can't say priced for anything like a recession. only a few percent off highs. cyclical stocks hanging in there okay. i think you've priced in a greater probability in terms how the bond market is trading, in terms of defensive leadership of that harder landing. imminence of a likely fed rate cut, first in the cycle, concentrates everyone's attention on this debate as to whether in fact we'll be able to escape with a soft landing and how much the fed is either late or right on time. i think this week has shown that a higher possibility of something bumpier than a soft landing is in the price. we'll see the reaction. i think we are be definitely set up for potential for relief in markets, if it's anything like a steady job growth number in a few minutes. >> okay. mike, thank you for that. we'll see you in a little bit. the number, it's about to come. >> it is. less than ten minutes to go. when we come back, talking more about that august jobs report from the labor department. economists expecting an addition of 161,000 jobs last month.

also looking for an unemployment rate of 4.2%. then we'll talk about what that data could mean for the fed and the path of potential interest rate cuts with former atlanta fed president dennis lkht.ocar don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. approaching the government's august employment report. ahead of the number bring in our jobs panel. professor of -- aww! she's a professor of economics and public -- before we get to the jobs panel, steve, an event -- i don't think we corrected ourselves. >> no. november 1. >> i thought we didn't do -- >> i thought we didn't do it either. discounted it. should have looked it up.

had a friend -- >> november 1st is it friday. >> yeah. >> and normally you wait a couple days before the -- before the october -- report. >> before you get the number. >> cook the books. right? and takes a couple of days. so there was -- we've had three numbers before the election, then? three jobs reports before the election? >> including the one in -- >> yes. the one in -- it's noteworthy, i think. >> yeah. an inflation report, fed meeting in september. you know, retail sales, and i think even a gdp report. right? i don't want to misspeak again, but a gdp report coming up before the election. >> those that think maybe, you know, there's an article in the "wall street journal" about the october surprise. a long time. you don't think anything bas happening? >> data shows the economy six months before the election, that ultimately determines how voters -- look, down on the

current state but a little more optimistic about the future state. some from republicans becoming more optimistic. some from democrats and independents becoming more optimistic. a little better. wage numbers, joe, running about 14, 15 months now. had real wage gains. of course, since the pandemic. >> that number there. >> wait a second. betsy stephenson herself explained why it's not always the 1st of the month. it's on the first friday -- a rule of thumb always happens after the reference week. scheduled for the third friday an conclusion of the survey reference week. >> okay. >> that's why we love betsey stevenson she knows those things and we don't. >> economics and public policy, at the university of michigan. allison schrager. senior fellow at manhattan institute sarah malyk, chief investment officer and head of equities and fixed income, ed lavigne and our own steve liesman. we are -- it's almost time.

where's santelli? he's -- we don't know where he is. >> he's off. >> today? >> i'm going to do it. a poor aversion of rick. >> read slowly for the august jobs report. and steve liesman -- >> breathe in, breathe out, steve. >> i don't have the number just yet but looking for 161,000. should come across any -- there it is. 142,000 versus july, which revised down from 89 -- to 89,000 from 114,000. june 0, big revision to 118 from 179. i cannot do the math. somebody do 11 and 14 for me. 25,000 for the july revision, and it looks like -- 61,000. what's 25 and 61? it's -- 87? or 86? is that right? big revision down for the prior

two months. looking at the unemployment. ticked down to 4.2% from 4.3. right in line with consensus. see if i have any other headlines to scare up. all i have right now. i have go to the bls report here. refresh my page. rick has is scrolling across the top. i do not. quickly to the bef1 table. where jobs were and weren't. quickly 142 -- private sector 118. talking about some at 20,000 or so. 24,000 jobs were from the government sector. it looks like there was positive gains in -- negative manufacturing. minus 24,000. scrolling down. try to find the two areas i've been really, private service, retail trade. a lot of negatives coming across herants yields down a little, steve. >> this is a relatively weak number. it is an improvement. put those together with revisions which shaved off, what

did i come up with? almost 86,000 jobs? >> to start with -- >> some high. one came way down. 179, came down to, like, 118 or something like that. i want to check leisure and hospitality. a place we've had a lot of gains, obviously. private education, health services a big part of it. 47,000. health care within that up 44,000. >> so hot inflation numbers, not anywhere? >> what do you got? >> 0.4% versus the -- >> pretty strong. >> average hourly year over year, 3.8 versus 3.7% expected. a little stronger. >> 46,000 on leisure and hospitality and government, like i said, 24,000. of which almost all was in local government. 22,000. of which that was x education. seeing -- i don't know what the different fusion number is. guessing down near 50 or 60%

where -- a bunch of negatives. bunch of positives. innormal world a good number. clearly the job market softened, weakened, take it with a grain of salt because of revisions told you about in the se7:00 ho. happens a lot. downward revisioning, this idea. adp number, as i said before, people discounted. i think they're wrong. led you in the right direction. just quickly check what's happened to the fed funds probabilities here, because we were on the cusp of a 50 for september. >> not enough for anything. >> goldilocks. >> yes. just barely -- 5149 on a -- flipped from 57. now, what happens, joe, this is very interesting. this has been happening the whole time. now the probability of a 50 in november becomes a probability of a 25. >> just because it didn't add up to 100. >> the market is darn set on 100

between now and end of december, and it just shifts around how it gets there. but it's really at 100. maybe a little more now. now you've got a 68% probability of a 50 in december. so, look. 100, 125 i guess now where we're talking about. a little more easing. i can do one other thing here. check what we're looking for for a year from now and looking forward six months from now. if i look at the september 2025 fed contract, i get a -- error rate. nope. there it is. yeah. okay. so 3. 3%. right at 3%. one year from now. so the market now is priced at 240 to come off the fed funds rate as a result of this number. numbers seen as weak raising questions about where the economy is. once again, for a normal economy, 142,000, have not a chance to look at the household

survey see what happens with unemployment. do that while you're talking to our brilliant guests. >> betsy, allison and sarah and betsy, so the 4-2, explained why it would happen. combined with the 141,000 and revisions, not great, but nothing's falling off a cliff either, which may have been the whisper number and the worry among some? >> well, you know, i did take a look at household survey already. the household surray reassuring seeing employment growth there as well. roughly of the same magnitude as we see in the employer survey. you noted -- no. unemployment rate ticked a little down from where, its sort of high of july, but -- the bad news in the household survey, saw participation rate really coming down. if i look at this report, i see some big signs of weakness.

first of all, we tend to see, when an economy's weakening, the revisions go downward. we saw that here. revisions downward. a sign of a weakening economy. obviously, you know, unemployment rate coming up, we saw last month, not this month. then the participation rate coming down. the number of people who would like to have a job but sort of have given up and not in the labor force. going up. the labors for space going down. that's a sign people are finding it harder to find jobs. you know, you just had the "new york times" run an article how hard for recent college grads -- >> betsy -- i have to interrupt you. i have the participate rate unchanged 62.7. i know we all look at this data fast and i make my share of mistakes. just want to make sure people know. certain groups, unchanged. 62.7% in august. >> well, thank you. that is my mistake. i think --

>> no worries. try to get it right best we can. it take as village. >> yeah, yeah, yeah. you are right. actually looked at the male participation rate. so -- >> you know those men. lazy. you know. it's the women empowering the increase in participation and keeping it there. that is just a fact. >> so, yeah. actually, male participation went down. female participation went up. glad you corrected me. and we can actually note that that is a bigger sign what's going on in this economy, as it is women who have been, been driving it forward. i still stand by what -- my general sense is that we're seeing weakening in this economy, and you might call it weakening on normalization. the fact that the job growth is coming really from only three places right now. leisure and hospitality. health and education services and government. i was referring to that "new york times" article about how hard for college grads.

just not seeing a lot of growth in business and professional services. i think that is indicative of an economy that's slowing down. >> okay. allison, you heard a lot. what are your initial takes on this? >> well, i think definitely call it more of -- weakening for sure. but the labor market isn't really too far off from pre-pandemic. i mean, look at employment rates of prime age workers actually higher than in 2019. so while it's weakening, we do have to remember, postpandemic the labor market was really hot. probably contributing to inflation. so i think it's a little optimistic of markets to assume 100 basis points cuts, 250 point cuts over the next year, because the question is, what would the fed be trying to do with cut rates? not trying to boost the economy further. if that was the case risk

re-igniting inflation. a whole another problem. a move towards normalization, i think. not necessarily a bad labor market compared to what's normal. >> allison, follow-up on that. you make a really great point here, which is, what's the point of the cuts? maybe you've nailed what the difference is between the outlook for the market. that the market thinks the fed needs to cut to buoy the economy and the fed thinks it needs to cut to get back to neutral. and there's different magnitudes of cuts in each one of those those explanations and different speeds. if you're hurrying to buoy this economy, you've got to get there in a hurry. you've got to cut quick. you've got to cut often. if what you're doing is going back to neutral, in an economy in middle of the a soft landing still doing okay, you can take your time. all research shows that. >> yeah. what we have is a generation of people in markets who never have seen a fed try to, you know,

wind down contractionary policy. only seen the fed go hard to buoy the economy in the midst of recession. they only understand one speed. when really, i mean, this is sort of new for all of us, and certainly anyone under 50. but they're used to the fed going really hard, when really, sort of taking their foot off the gas. it's not really clear to me higher rates now are really acting as a contractionary force on the economy at all, which is, again, something people are debating. >> you can be -- can't be a historian, as you are, and then you would know. >> sarah, so patient and nice. >> still here, joe. >> thank you. so with all of this in mind, what does it make you think to do in equities and fixed income? >> first of all i think this number proves july payrolls were not an anoomly including positions downward. lay to rest the debate the fed

is behind the curve? no. still have to worry about that. given the average hourly earnings and next week's cpi and ppi. fed may start with a cautious 25 basis points. the market, september, last four years in a row and historically, second half of september seasonally the worst period of the year for markets. markets will remain cautious i think. they are concerned now that economic data is continuing to deteriorate and the if ed is going to delay. a challenging month of the defensive stocks we've seen leading the markets recently. probably they're going to continue to lead. as the market waits to see, where does this end up in terms of the economy? do we end up in recession? our view, we do. fixed income, get cash off sidelines and find deals that tend to perform well. cash returns at this point, lock in and where you're lead. fixed income, equities remain tough in the usually seasonally tough september.

>> do you feel we're on a precipice or did we just down shift? >> i don't think a recession is imminent. these employment numbers, payrolls today. this is not a sign of a recession staring us in the face. look at the consumer. weakening. listen to companies from recent quarter earnings calls. consumer is a concern -- seeing discounting for the consumer. seeing delinquency rates increase and that employment data slowly crawling what easily could become a weaker number. all that together lean towards recession in 2025. the fed will start slowly because of the inflation issues still seeing. inflation is not at target levels even at this point and as the fed continues to cut eventually looking for a fed to save us going into recession. >> sarah, i work with a theory that says you have to screw up for a recession. the u.s. economy is good and if you don't screw up policy in a

major way, or something else comes along, i look at the leverage in the economy. i don't see massive amounts of leverage. at least from the banking sector and regulated sector. 's pra perhaps maybe the regulated sector. maybe i see over hiring, over investment in a.i., but where does the mistake come from that causes the recession? is it fed policy being too late? >> i think two kinds of recession. one a mild recession, sort of normal course of business. higher interest rates. higher inflation eventually consumer slows down and markets slow down. remember also employment markets are not preliminary indicator of recession. employment markets tend to crack at the same time recession starts. won't see it in labor data before it happens. structural recessions have happened due to pandemic. due to banking crises. due to technology falls. i don't think we're in a latter category but the type of recession eventually that comes due to this cycle of higher interest rates, higher

inflation, stress put on the consumer eventually hits their savings rates, increasing delinquency rates, hits employment market already seeing some signs of companies slowing down in terms of hiring. paused hiring already. the next step will be starting to see more layoffs. that then brings run of the mill more of a normal type of recession. >> i was going to follow-up with betsy. >> go ahead. go ahead and follow-up with betsy and then at 8:45. who knows? anything can happen. >> anything can happen. betsy, a few minutes here. give us your outlook on, when you say this is weak, how do you go from that to your view of the broader economy? >> so, you know, there's a fine line between work -- between weak and normalizing. and what i see here is the labor market is definitely weakening and we're going to see people are outside the labor market having a hard time finding jobs. that's going to cause some pain.

that's going to causes contraction in consumer spending. the question will be, you know, can we sort of manage through that with policy? i do think this is the ultimate test for the fed right now. i completely agree with your idea of, you know, putting it out there. what's the fed trying to do? it's trying to find the kneutra place, a place of employment and growth balanced with price growth. i don't think it knows where that is but i think we can all agree now that rates are too high for that. and we don't have a ton of experience. i just heard talk about a normal recession. i don't know. we don't have a ton of experience being in the place we're at right now. and i think the fed is blind. a little bit blind. i do think that they've got to bring rates down quickly before we start to see things worsening, because when i'm looking at job growth retreating in so many sectors, it says that

we, you know, we need to do something. not so much to bolster the economy but to at least take our foot off the brakes. >> steve, what's happening? >> i have some headlines from john williams here from the, yeah. look at that. he's speaking at the, i believe council of foreign relations shis this morning. he's saying it's appropriate to dial down restrictiveness saying that -- monetary policy. stance of monetary policy can prove to a more neutral setting. no information about the speed of this. talks about three specific risks he's looking at. first, significant further weakening in the u.s. labor market tops the list. sharp slowdown washes up on these shores and volatile up and down disinflation. his himself in confidence that inflation is moving towards their 2% target. he says the labor market is now roughly in balance and unlikely source of inflation.

two sides of the dual mandate moving into better balance. using that phrase and another phrase, esuacor. . one more thing, joe. >> solidly positive on the 210. >> on the 210. >> three points positive. cranking up. not here in quite some time on the 210 spread. >> haven't had recession after the inversion, does the recession come? >> i think gabriel santos on our air saying this is the most dangerous time. >> when it reinverts. >> disinverts. something like that. >> uninverts. >> didn't we learn you really need rick to do this? did you learn this today?

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welcome back to "squawk box." august jobs coming in below estimates in the unemployment report ticking down to 4.2%. joining us to talk about what the fed is likely to take away from this as investors look towards, of course, this month's fomc meeting, former atlanta fed president dennis lockhart, now a professor at georgia tech. still feels a little bit like a jump ball, dennis. if you were on the court, what would you do?

>> i'd probably go with 25, because i think the -- this report is consistent with their basic working narrative that the labor markets, the employment markets, are slowing but not falling off a cliff. so, i would favor 25. i think that will be the point of debate in the meeting, really. there's no question that they're resolved to cut. >> when you look at some of the revisions, 86,000 jobs off the table that we thought were on the table, how detrimental is that? how much is that go into the thinking? >> it certainly suggests to me that the first estimates that we get, the first friday, in this case, first friday of every month, are pretty substantially off what they settled on after revisions, and that suggests a weaker labor market than first

impressions, so again, i think that will feed the debate in the committee about whether there is a strong enough rationale for going with 50 instead of 25. >> do you, therefore, think that even today's number is off? >> i was a little bit surprised by the revisions, frankly, and i was watching steve as he was making the report earlier, and he, too, i think, was a little bit startled by some of the revisions. it suggests -- and maybe the underlying weakness is a little stronger than the committee believes, but they're also, i should point out, the beige book this week, i think, gives you a sense of sort of ground level soundings that the presidents are getting, and they, too, suggested that this is -- we're slowing down in terms of --

>> is there an argument, though, dennis, if you know that the fed is not going to have to just cut rates in september but likely cut rates in november and december, and we -- if you know directionally the direction of travel here, is there any value or benefit to ripping the band-aid a little earlier? meaning, doing 50 basis points in september? >> meaning doing 50? >> yeah. >> it's sort of a down payment, but it does suggest, to some extent, that they're catching up, and i don't think they particularly want to signal that because i'm not sure they believe they're in a catch-up mode, so 50 would give them a bit more optionality around november, which is going to be an interesting meeting, just because it starts the day after the election, and who knows what's going on in our society on the day after the election this year? 50 would give them some optionality to be a little more

tactical in the next move, which could be mnovember or december. >> i know we say politics doesn't enter this, but assuming this meeting is going to -- the november meeting happens right after the election, not to say that politics is going to enter it, but politics will enter that meeting insofar as you're going to have to make some kind of judgment calls about what may happen next, no? >> well, you know, it's -- what you're suggesting is that they would divert from being data dependent, but they're going to have to look around and see if there are any shock potential things going on. >> right. >> and if there are, that might give them pause at that meeting to just stand back and let things settle out and look forward to the december meeting, which isn't -- the december meeting comes pretty quickly after the november meeting. >> right. >> so, it's not a long interval like we had between july and september.

>> dennis lockhart, always great to see you, get your perspective, especially on a day keke today with data coming out li this. "squawk box," coming right back in just a moment. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

dom chu joins us with a look

at some of the morning's top premarket movers. hey, dom, what's up? >> becky, on the heels of earnings, we want to show you the tech and financials picture right now after the jobs report and some of the earnings reports we've seen. big banks, always a focus on interest rate sensitive type data. jpmorgan, chase, flat on the session, same with bank of america. citigroup, wells fargo, morgan stanley, moving around there. you can see that movement in the big banks is fractional so far. let's check out the big mega cap technology stocks, apple, microsoft, alphabet, amazon, meta, all fractionally higher and higher than they were before the numbers came out for the jobs, so again, mega cap technologies seeming to find some kind of footing after that weaker than expected report, and then one quick check on the semiconductor stocks after broadcom's earnings report last night, a more disappointing forecast leading to some losses there, but nvidia, qualcomm, advanced micro and super micro all showing some movement here. >> dom, thank you.

and by the way, if you take a look at the broader markets, we did pare some of our losses after that jobs number came in with better than expected numbers. >> not as bad. little below -- 161 was expected. >> 4.2% for the unemployment. >> that's what they said. that was expected, too. >> so, take a look at some of these things right now, we're almost -- >> felt goldilocks, you know? wasn't below 100. the revision was -- >> the revision piece and the question is what you really think today's number is. >> we'll see you back here next week. time for "squawk on the street." bye. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. big day. august jobs comes in. 142,000, slightly below estimates with some negative revisions. unemployment pretty steady at 4.2%. yields dropped to fresh one-year

lows. our road map begins ob