after that jobs number came in with better than expected numbers. >> not as bad. little below -- 161 was expected. >> 4.2% for the unemployment. >> that's what they said. that was expected, too. >> so, take a look at some of these things right now, we're almost -- >> felt goldilocks, you know? wasn't below 100. the revision was -- >> the revision piece and the question is what you really think today's number is. >> we'll see you back here next week. time for "squawk on the street." bye. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. big day. august jobs comes in. 142,000, slightly below estimates with some negative revisions. unemployment pretty steady at 4.2%. yields dropped to fresh one-year lows. our road map begins with jobs,

slowdown fears and the fed. job growth rebounding slightly last month. chips remain in focus. broadcom under pressure as guidance somewhat disappoints. and then politics watch. trump vowing a 15% corporate tax rate for some companies while dozens of corporate leaders line up behind the vice president. let's begin, though, with market reaction to this morning's jobs number, jim. the take, at least for now, is, does it neatly answer the 25/50 debate? >> no, it doesn't neatly do it. it certainly makes it a certainty there's going to be one or the other. i would say that this morning, at 3:30, the futures were down horrendously. 1.25% on the nasdaq. we left here, i want wasn't down that much, and we can talk about broadcom later, but the idea seemed to be it was almost as if we might report a number where there would be no cut, and that was completely wrong. there seems to be a series of tremendously bad bets being made by people who can't sit on their hands. look, this is the kind of

revisions to say, we got to do something. powell might have 50 if he thinks he's got either one, but i'll tell you, if you care about interest rates like i do, you're going to have a good market, and we're not supposed to. it's september. i understand this week is down more than 2%. it may not be the solution instantly, and we do feel that the semis are overwhelmed by weakness in the economy. i hate that. that's a bad theory. we have to dispel that this very morning. >> but the picture of employment right now, does it make you think that the soft landing is teetering in any way? >> no, i do think that it's negative, that you had a loss of 25,000 manufacturing jobs. i had caterpillar on last night. they had nothing but good things to say. i do think that this is, again, part and parcel. you don't get a rate cut unless you start seeing those numbers, so we have to start -- look, i'm not trying to enjoy negative numbers about people not getting jobs. we did get 14 cents per hour year over year increase. somehow, that's actually okay

now. we actually want the people who have jobs to make a little more money. >> well, year on year wage, 3.8% versus cpi 2.9%, that's a good tailwind for the consumer. >> it sure is. i think there's been a lot of people talking about the choppy nature of the consumer. i say it's the choppy nature of the business, because there's a lot of blaming on the consumer end, the weakness in the economy, from companies that really should recognize or are loath to say, you know what, we're really getting beat up by costco and walmart, but we can cut our prices. they can't. the only outfit that i had, sprouts market on the other day, and they are determined to get produce price down, and they have done that, but you have to have something which makes the consumer feel a little bit better but that kind of number that you just mentioned, that says, you know what? you can go to sweetgreen, which we saw this morning, for a $15 bowl for dinner. the numbers are fine.

if it weren't for a.i. and so-called bursting the bubble, thank you, michael cembalest, jpmorgan strategist, i think we would be fine, but there's this idea that we were caught flat-footed. a.i. turned out not to be any good and what we should have been looking at was the price of toothpaste. no. we got a stop making a judgment. a.i. is fine. it's rocky, it's bumpy. go look at ben reitzes today where he talks about, look, it's not linear. there's going to be a lot of spending that's not linear. i was on that hock tan call. we feel strongly, the investment club, that this is like august of last year where you had a huge dropoff and then it was, well, late august, early september, one of the great buying opportunities of all time. that stock is up more than 50% this year. people are acting as if it is a company that hasn't made shareholders any money. the opposite. hock tan, the ceo, put up good numbers, cell phone bottoming, server bottoming, a.i. fine, lumpiness related, perhaps, to google, vmware on fire.

vmware has been the biggest -- that's been the achilles heel of the company. i know that broadcom is -- if david were here, he would be saying, broadcom is so big. so, it has the power to create a bit of a downer mentality, but did you notice that nvidia went from being down 80 cents to being up after the employment number? we're way too sensitive. those do not correlate. jensen huang, if he saw what we're doing in the stock market, correlating interest rates with what they're up to, he would say, what do they have anything to do with each other? the answer is that it's very interesting for people to construct these ideas in their head. >> people have tried to argue that nvidia is a dynamic that leads to economic activity because of the size, because of the buildout, because of the capex. >> look, i think that's a great theory because you look at the datacenter, and there's so many companies involved with datacenter. i mean, that is a primary driver of caterpillar is the datacenter. we know that jonathan gray, though, from blackstone, they bought another datacenter, they

wouldn't be doing that unless they felt datacenters were a secular story. right now, datacenters became cyclical. out of nowhere, the biggest theory of what's going on in the economy became cyclical and that's going to be verified by the manufacturing jobs not going higher. i thought they would go higher. that was not good. >> we did get some decent prints on construction job growth. >> yes, and that could be related. i just never want to see manufacturing down because that's -- we've got this whole reshoring concept, and what happened to that? and now, people are putting in politics and just saying, you know what? we're looking at what trump's policies did, and they led not to new plans, but they led to more buybacks. i think that's wrong. i think there is a rap which says that china tariffs did hurt our country. again, i think infinitesimal, not what you should go on. i am watching the politics like a hawk, though, because i know that there's a debate next week, and i'm sure that former

president trump is going to be able to say, look what's happening. the economy's slowing. and it's inflationary. i think you can use these numbers to justify pretty much anything. >> right. b of a does have a great chart today looking at the entire wage spectrum since 2019 has outpaced inflation, and the lowest cohort did the best. so, the argument that you're somehow behind on pricing, i don't know. we'll see how well they can communicate that message. >> how could -- no one should try to distance themselves from those numbers. >> right. >> if i were vice president harris, i would say, look, the market did better under biden than under trump. the economy hummed. and not only that, but everybody gained. and it's not just a lower end or higher end cohort. but no one seems to be running on what biden did. >> that's a lot of that is -- has been made irrelevant to some degree. >> because of the price of the -- you know, honest to god, if harris can say, we're going to get that egg mcmuffin down to

five bucks, if she says that at the debate, i think people will vote for her. the mcmuffin is too high. that's the problem with the economy. it's the mcmuffin. >> jim mentions umpleby from caterpillar last night on "mad money." take a listen. >> we're seeing datacenter demand globally, and so that is in the something that is in one geographic area or one customer as well. we're seeing a lot of demand from, of course, the big hyperscalers but also smaller customers and companies, frankly, that most u.s. investors aren't aware of. >> that investors are not aware of. >> we went through this period where what mattered was china. then we went through this period where it mattered about oil and gas. then, what mattered was mining, and then what mattered was infrastructure. now it's datacenter. put that whole mosaic together and you've got a juggernaut that is caterpillar, and not even including regulation. incredible moment in that conversation i had with jim was that a democrat turned out to be

a boon for caterpillar because what's happened is that they have all these regulations that require you to do rebuilding, and solar, and that's another thing that they're great at. they're also great at having engines for when a datacenter goes down. you can't really have those go down. commons and caterpillar make the backup engines. i thought that confers conversation was blow-away: africa, not strong. asia, just okay. brazil was the only country that was cited as being really, really strong last night, and brazil, people are starting to talk about brazil doing well, which is odd with that -- doesn't jibe with that government. >> right. as for china, jim, i don't know if you saw the wire story today about a former pboc official saying probably the most -- in the most stark terms how much china needs to battle deflation. >> look, deflation, as we know from the '20s and germany, leads to revolution.

deflation is a curse, and i think people in our country only hear about inflation, but deflation means, don't buy, don't buy, don't buy, let it come down. it's the end of commerce, deflation, and i think there's a perception that you have to have deflation to get things right. now, we have seen some countries do that to beat hyperinflation. chile. >> yep. >> during pinochet's regime. not really liked. but i think we have to state that china is, again, not worthy of investment. there's a battle growing right now on china about msci, henry fernandez, a top executive, saying, you know, fighting to try to figure out what should be the percentage in these big indexes of china. it should be much lower because we see when you do a block trade or pdd. this whole temu i/shein.

they're dollar tree and dollar general for china. if you put these tariffs on, whoa, bye-bye. i mean, nio is the only stock that has had anything positive and i don't want to buy nio. >> would the application of tariffs be like putting your heel boot -- the heel of your boot on the throat of china? >> i love that analogy. i hadn't thought about that. that's a better analogy than what i was -- totally. >> yeah. >> look, i think that china -- i don't want -- none of us want a desperate china, okay? and the fte specializes in how much business nvidia is doing in china, and the answer is, enough. enough. china is not the juggernaut of anything. i mean, i think that india, we're trying to figure out why that economy is not growing faster. i look up the different countries that make up apple, the new iphone coming out, and they're talking about the philippines and indonesia. you google these countries because when you went to school, they had much lower populations,

and now we're starting to realize, no, apple is not related nearly as much to china as we thought. china is just a disaster. and i keep saying that. no one wants to believe it. disaster. >> the spread between certainly our economy and theirs has gotten so wide. >> they're still like giving money to china to try to own china. come on. own your own country. >> jim mentions a big week for policy, economic policy this week, as the former president pledged to cut taxes for businesses if he wins a second term. yesterday at the economic club of new york, the republican nominee outlined plans to cut the corporate rate to 15% from 21%, adding that it would be "solely for companies that make their product in america." also announced that elon musk would have a role in his administration. take a listen. >> that the suggestion of elon musk, who's given me his complete and total endorsement. that's nice. smart guy. he knows what he's doing. he knows what he's doing.

it's great. very much appreciated. i will create a government efficiency commission tasked with conducting a complete financial and performance audit of the entire federal government and making recommendations for drastic reforms. we need to do it. can't go on the way we are now. and elon, because he's not very busy, has agreed to head that task force. be interesting. if he has the time. he'd be a good one to do it, but he's agreed to do it. >> talked about the creation of a sovereign wealth fund, got hammered on this convoluted answer regarding child care solutions. >> that was -- some people say, what a socialist answer. i don't know. i mean, what i do know is that elon musk stands for more than just cars. people should recognize that elon musk stands for robots. thank you to adam jonas for putting that in front of us, and elon musk stands for a.i. buildout. it's funny, if we go back to the

mike the cembalest piece this week that i mentioned, he's very positive about nvidia, very positive about the use of a.i. he's just saying maybe the hyperscalers are spending too much. that's why it's so interesting. elon is buying a giganticic amount. he recognizes that he has no choice. obviously, he would like to make them, but he is really the ceo of much more -- he's ceo of starlink. think about what he is creating, and the funniest thing about what former president trump said is he's not too busy. but wow. he's the panoply of the economy, and i think space matters a lot, and i do think the datacenter and i think that a.i. and i think that robots. >> well, the pushback on musk, i don't need to tell you, will come from the amplification of misinformation, a.i.-generated images of harris without a label, amplifying conversations that imply churchill was the true villain of world war ii, that's what makes the picture muddy. >> that -- always try to figure

out that status. he was a -- he did that, got the u.s. to understand which side -- obviously, the u.s. was not pro -- there were american firsters, so to speak, and that term has been heard from again. trying to figure out whether to be on churchill's side or not, churchill ultimately being on the correct side. you're so right. i'm trying so hard to figure out what people are thinking, because it's so not directly correlating with what the meters are saying. there's just a lot of misinformation out there. >> right. and on the harris side, and this will all get hopefully talked about at the debate. capital gains. earned income tax credit. child tax credit. can she get 25 million new businesses in 4 years? >> look, i mean, everybody wants everything right now. you've got -- these are things that would bust the budget. i love the fact, by the way, rates keep going down. remember when the story was they were going to have to -- thank you, josh frost, who creates the

schedule of when the federal government raises money -- but look, we've got a lot of false narratives out there. i think that you can add more child care, the same way that obama managed to add health care. it wasn't the disaster that people thought it was going to be for the economy. i don't know. i do think that everybody's a little too bullish. >> my favorite line from last night was ned davis research, jim. >> no bear market, though. >> both sides are talking about increased deficit spending with no way to mitigate that spending, which could be positive for risk assets no matter what. >> let's go back to what larry fink said when he sat right there. blackrock, the biggest aggregator of money. we're going to grow our way out of it. now, you could have done a subtext of saying, we better grow our way out of it, but that's how they're going to do it. look, we do have great growth. go back to umpleby from caterpillar. it's the u.s. we've got the growth. it's not just from reshoring and datacenters and minerals. not just from construction, but we will have a month like this which gives us a window to why

rates have to come down, even though, well, it helps both candidates. >> you're -- there is a reason the u.s. is almost two-thirds of global market cap. >> oh my. and meanwhile, china is receding, but we still keep thinking -- we have an inferiority complex toward china. it's really frightening. we're the only country that says, boy, they're killing us. remember the belt and road initiative? what is that? it turns out to be no road. >> right. take a look at the premarket here. a lot to digest as the street processes this jobs number. if you missed it, 142, just south of the 161 estimate but those revisions down a combined 86,000. we're back in a minute. data scis some of the biggest challenges in financial markets. if we focus on the mortgage market and follow the life of a loan from origination right through its pricing in the capital markets, our data science capabilities can provide a deep level of insight. at ice we have extensive data sets, especially around three pillars.

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the cowboys, worth about $11 billion. >> stadiums are the key right now. the cowboys get $800 million from stadium revenue. taking the nfl brand overseas is going to be a big part of their growth strategy for sure. >> lead revenue has been increasing in the high single digits. the nfl is the biggest and most profitable sports league in the world.

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get cramer's "mad dash." not all the numbers are jo jobs-related today. >> there are some ports in this storm, and one of them is costco. they reported last night, did their monthly numbers, and they were very strong. comp growth of 7.1% compared to what was supposed to be 6.7%, and it's broad based. i love the fact that they continue to try to put the prices -- push prices down for fresh food. that's why they have high single digits. the consumer's responding, even though we have the membership fee increase, a better than expected number. if we're going to get a turn in the market, go for this one. i know the turn is early, given the fact all the turmoil, but this one's delivered the best, most up to date numbers right now. >> does it do better with a backdrop of a declining consumer or a rebounding consumer? >> i think it's -- it does better in a declining, because people are recognizing, we've got to go where they've rolled back prices. this company has rolled back prices endlessly by punishing

the suppliers, and punishing by either saying, you lower your prices or we're going to go against you with our excellent kirkland premium signature product, which we all love, anybody who goes to costco. the reason why i reiterate, dollar tree and dollar general, they ought to just say, you know what, we got to come in with a price point that's lower than one of these two. good luck, though. this is a volume story, not a price story. they want people in the stores and buying and they've delivered. >> do you have a preference between this and walmart? >> yes. costco. >> really? >> yeah. only because i find that costco's prices are so unbeatable and it's a little more fun, even though everybody knows i love my walmarts. >> you've made that point before. we'll take a break here, get the opening bell in about five minutes. don't forget, you can catch us any time, anywhere, just listen re: eng awonhethe "squk t stetopinbell" podcast.

>> announcer: the opening bell is brought to you by nuveen, leader in income, alternatives, and responsible investing. the accumulated evidence has increased my confidence that inflation is moving sustainably

toward 2%. the current restrictive stance of monetary policy has been effective in restoring balance to the economy and in bringing inflation down. with the economy now in a pause, it is now appropriate to dial down the degree of restrictiveness in the policy by reducing the target range for the federal funds rate. >> that's the fed's john williams speaking a moment ago at the council of foreign relations. this is our last day of fed speak before the blackout. >> williams is a heavyweight. we've all come to recognize that he doesn't swing with a breeze. he's rigorous, and that was a fantastic little bite that should have -- that more in people's minds than what's going on with a.i. >> we will see how that all plays out into prices today as we get the opening bell in a few seconds. interesting day given the kickoff last night on ravens-chiefs and the activity continues here this morning. at the big board, it is the new york giants celebrating the

100th season of the professional football franchise. >> when i look at the value of franchises, chronically undervalued. who doesn't want to own that franchise? i like dallas. i went to see jerry's world. i like new york. >> the ceo doing the honors. i think tyree is here, perhaps. >> got the helmet out. no eagles are here because they're in brazil. busy game last night. do you remember why football is the most exciting thing on earth? a toe can make the difference. >> at the nasdaq, arcutis, biotherapeutics, focused on immunodermatology. did you see the eagles hype video that adam schefter put out? >> i tweeted it. yo, yo. the eagles have become -- i'm never going to say -- remember, we had the eagles jerseys. that's a great way to look at how things are going, huge

amount, and i think a lot of people talk about howie. i remember, what, you know, you just -- he's their general manager and he's always making moves. i don't know how many moves during the draft, but you couldn't keep track of them. >> we can't wait for that tonight as the entire world, really, gets a look at american football again. >> i'm not sure what the packers' schedule was, but howie roseman tells me it's fabulous. >> by the way, we heard from ro roger goodell, commissioner, on "squawk box," talked about betting and player discipline and going global as well. take a listen. >> we have 38 million fans here already. we hope this will really ignite this market and really become passionate football fans, and we're obviously continuing our games in europe. we're continuing games in the uk. we're going to spain next year. we'll be in germany this year. hopefully back to mexico next year. we really believe playing the

games is a big part of making our game global. >> while we're in the neighborhood, jim, got some news on paramount, numbers on shari redstone's payout. wbd is going to release "beetlejuice" this morning. >> we have an entertainment story. if you look at the stocks we equate with entertainment, they're still the worst stocks in the market. they trade like coal or fracking sand, and something has to give in that group. now, obviously, if president trump is elected versus vice president harris, i think there's a belief that antitrust will look the other way if they want to consolidate. but they should remember that former president trump was deeply involved with cnn in a negative way. look, i want to embrace these stocks. obviously, we all -- we work for comcast, but i can recognize a stock that's been unchanged in

ten years, and i'm not going to -- look, i work for it. i'm proud of it. from philadelphia. but i also know it's unchanged. and that is -- okay, factor in the dividend. >> the distribution models in transition. that's what the whole business is all about right now. >> it is. and you look at the numbers, you know, i find that moffett nathanson put out some numbers regularly about who's gaining subs, and let's just say you got to gain subs. >> while we're in the neighborhood of m&a, jim, cleveland-cliffs, goncalves came on "closing bell" yesterday. >> i've been saying that he gets it, but he has to be able to sell -- they have to find buyers right now for the overlap, because the auto industry should hate that deal because they control pricing for auto steel. but it is a union deal. i think people underestimate

this man repeatedly. that was a great appearance. congratulations to those guys. i would say that the nippon steel thing was a total fiasco, just handled up and down the wrong way. >> it's an important story from a national security standpoint, certainly an economic standpoint, industry, and politics, given the focus on pennsylvania. this is what goncalves said yesterday. >> i will not deploy the details of the package in this interview, but we are good to go, good for the money, and more important than anything, we are going to be working to preserve jobs, to create new opportunities like we have just done in west virginia, with transformers. we will continue to grow manufacturing in north america, continue to reinforce middle class for our benefit, for the benefit of the united states, not for the benefit of japan. >> wow. look, there was -- remember, we had one bit of agreement between the two candidates, which is that this must not go to japan. the japanese commitment was to put more money in, not to just

keep it so there wouldn't be a lot of closures, but look, it was tone deaf. they didn't realize that this was what was going to happen. and the more i talked about it, the more people were giving me pushback, saying, listen -- i love it when they say, you don't know what you're talking about. take special notice and really don't believe them at all. this was just dead on arrival. that was the wrong zeitgeist for the moment and by the way, we never heard from vance, whose whole book is dedicated to the fact that japanese acquisitions ruined small town america. >> tech sector is not up at the moment. >> i think semiconductors have been the bellwether of what you don't want to own for the for a moment. i think they should be what you want to buy into weakness because they are in secular growth, but this is a long month, and it just seems like this is the month where they want to punish the semis. and look, i get it. i'm going to give you -- you get

a stock like 3m. 3m is -- was an underweight, recommendation sell. it's pretty serious when you have 3m as a sell by morgan stanley, and the stock is up, because they went on the industrials, even though manufacturing was a weak point for employment. i like a lot of stocks here. i don't think -- you don't have to just own clorox, for heaven's sake. everyone loves clorox. >> some of the trades make immediate sense. pulte, horton, lennar among the winners' list today. >> what's happening here is that if toll brothers sees rates going lower, then doug yearley, whom i regard as being an exceptional ceo, he'll build more homes. they have the ability to build more homes. they have them on a tip things, you bring up that marginal house and people who are in homes suddenly say, i got to sell homes. this is such a breath of fresh air for what is a too high mortgage rate and a too high home equity rate, and it says

those who downgrade -- i talked about it the other day. it's a funeral. send me to your funeral. downgrade the home builders into a rate cut scenario? come on. >> and the halo extends to builders first source, carrier, jim, eton on an upgrade today. >> my travel trust owns eton. it's been viewed as a sink on the datacenter. it's a mega trade. there's many different cycles that it's going in favor of. lennar, by the way, great spokesperson for the industry, up 2%. stuart miller would be able to tell you if rates come down, look out. there's a lot. again, it's broadening out. it's almost -- look, it's a breath of fresh air, and by the way, everybody who bought futures, puts, or selling futures frantically, you got to tell me what you mean. okay? because i think that you should redeploy to daily fantasy on draftkings on sunday, because maybe there you have rigor. maybe there you know how to pick up a $5,000 receiver because you should get out of this business

because you don't know what you're doing. you get up at 3:00, which is before me, and god bless you, but then you make the wrong move? i mean, come on. go back to sleep. >> your crusade against the pajama traders continues >> get some feet. get the dr. denton feet pajamas and go back to bed. stay up, watch the end of that game, watch the replay, then go back to sleep and don't wake up until noon. >> intel is the dow laggard this morning. bunch of different news sources, one's on reuters talking about qualcomm looking at their design business as a potential acquisition. >> yeah. they float that. >> other pieces about the mobileye stake. and others arguing that intel's woes are qualcomm's advantage. >> i could make that case. but i would rather say that they're arm's advantage. qualcomm is a very opportunistic company, but rene haas is ready. he's ready to make some changes

and take on intel. hey, he could take on qualcomm for heaven's sake. they're suing each other. there is this mobileye $38.70 last year at this day. $38. pat gelsinger, man, he -- he's still talking a big game. may i suggest that he read the "financial times" article today about defections at intel, stuart pan, the head of foundry business, named in '23, left this year. there are many people who say, enough already, pat. you really come out and say that altera might be -- the rumors, not from pat, or that altera is going to be bought by marvell tech. why would marvell tech want to own something that's been reduced to almost nothing under the gelsinger reign? now they're telling us that qualcomm is going to this and that. and the mobileye -- what price can they really sell it at? i don't know. i remain steadfastly negative about the stock of intel. >> right.

the one other mover we got, at least on the research front, is smci, as jpmorgan goes to neutral. they were at $950, they go to $900. >> i love their research. but the fact is they start out by saying, we're not downgrading this because of the problems with -- with accounting. the hindenburg problem, so to speak, and i think they spent the rest of the piece talking about the hindenburg stock. i mean, honestly, guys, if you're going to say that you don't care about it, don't bring it up again. just talk about the datacenter and how super micro is against dell and hpe and the margin pressure, all fine. also could be related to blackwell, but don't bring up the accounting and say, listen, it's not really important, but we should focus on it. and look, i do agree with the downgrade, though. something's very wrong at super micro. they -- whenever you have accounting issues, you got to

take breadth away. accept that. they did put out a release saying there are issues. you can't self-regulate. once you say there's issues, there's a belief at home. if you say there's issues and then come back and say there are not issues, the only thing you can come back and say, is the cash position unaffected? the s.e.c. buys into that. but once you flag, then, what happens is the s.e.c. says, all right, well, we got to go in, and then it's just a nightmare. i've been in one of these where there was a very small discrepancy that really had nothing to do with any part of the company that i was involved in, speaking of the street.com. the s.e.c. descends, and you surface a year later. >> the other one that reminds me of that is, it's a small market cap, jim, would be big lots, delaying earnings to the 12th. >> yeah. you got to have them to delay them. big lots is very, very weak, but they do have a lot of stores. so, look out. >> yeah.

news about buffett continuing to unwind some -- >> enough. >> bank of america. >> bank of america is the biggest winner when it comes to the change in the yield curve. go sell something else. >> you think it's a misguided trim? >> it's a huge win, and any time someone sells huge and still have a lot left, congratulations. it's just that this is the bank that i think is -- you want to buy, just because it's able to do this with all that selling, and berkshire, someone called me yesterday and said, what should i do with berkshire? i said, well, own it. what are -- don't trade it. own it. bank of america, you got a great basis. i understand the trim. it's just that it's ironic that bank of america's got the balance sheet that makes you most want to own it right now of all the majors. >> right. berkshire has been on a nice win last few sessions. >> yes. >> elsewhere in financials, jim, hood gets a bit of an upgrade over at barclay's. >> how about that piece? this is about how hood has matured. they know how to grow, and coinbase too, but look, my

travel trust owns morgan stanley, and when are they going to take advantage of e-trade? they may say they have. they better talk about it. right now, when you read about what robinhood is doing, they are taking share. and they've captured a lot of the option buying. you could argue that they also capture a lot of bitcoin. they didn't capture a lot of equity buying. but at the same time, they're a player, and they were not a player. and they are a player. >> you mentioned bitcoin, jim. back below $57,000, second biggest outflow, i think, on record. >> i think people are trying to come up with a thesis, but meanwhile, if you're talking from american eagle -- american eagle egg, you get a company like equal, that's what you wanted. if you look at the chart of that, that was bitcoin. that was -- they were one for one with bitcoin, and now it's just pulling away, and why that is, because they're making it for very low and they're selling it for very high, and it resonates, and they got a 2%

yield. that's your bitcoin. >> at the same time, coin does get upgraded over at barclay's. >> yeah, look, these are companies that have -- they've done it right. i was too bullish on coinbase when it started, but they've hung in, and if you want -- it's like microstrategy being recommended. people want to do ancillary bitcoin. if you want bitcoin, go buy bitcoin, okay? i am indifferent. i want some gold. i want some bitcoin. i want some hedge against what the -- what both candidates are saying about spending. >> it was an interesting -- the upgrade, by the way, is a weird one where they upgrade to equal weight but cut the target to $169. >> just erode your whole thesis. memo to the analysts out there. when you cut your price target, you know, it cuts your earnings estimates. they're in sync with each other. i found that, by the way, the morgan stanley, the big rerating of all the -- of all of the industrials, there's really kind of no edge to any of it. and i love it. i think that the actual copy and

the theories are good. but there's no -- it's called the 300 basis points above gdp. who has that? i think they wanted to roll out the industrials, and i don't blame them, but they have to be done individually. they're not so much of a cohort anymore >> kind of reminds me of the move, i think, wells on the banks earlier in the week where they didn't change any numbers, but they changed some rating. it's like a vibe call, almost. >> yeah, vibe call. there were a lot of vibe calls this week. and some of them good, some of them bad. wells fargo, i think, is undervalued. moved all the way up to $60, where it was in 2018. not a big accomplishment. that is the bank stock that is most behind, and citi's obviously questionable from a book value point of view. but i think this is -- this market is too schizophrenic. we thought that the food stocks were dead because of blp glp-1 then we love them?

the banks are good. the consumer product stocks are good. utilities are good. industrials, trying to figure it out. and tech, bad. particularly, you know, enterprise, bad. enterprise software. and anything a.i. but remember, it's a bubble that's bursting, a.i., not the chips that make it. >> was there news on crm this week regarding a.i.? >> they bought this company, own, i've been trying to get ahold of marc benioff, the ceo, it's a little early there. it seems like an interesting acquisition. salesforce has been a horrendous stock after a great quarter. i don't know what to say. great quarter, didn't matter. nvidia started that great quarter, didn't matter, theory. >> yeah, the only other thing i would add, jim, for the week is crude, where you're on pace for, i think, the worst week since october. not being able to get above $70 today. gas futures at three-year lows. >> incredible. i was reading rusty braziel, rbn energy, and what it seems like

that the collapse -- it's a collapse in oil price, and that is very bullish, but it's not resounding, say, to disney, which used to be, like, theme parks, if oil and gas comes down, it could help them. those stocks seem to be -- they're from hades, those stocks. i don't believe there's no value of comcast or disney. it's got to be some value. people go to work every day, do things, create things, but so far, i'd rather be in american electric power, all things equal. >> it all comes back to equal power. when we come back, we'll continue to watch this open. dow is up 230 on the yields of that jobs number. as we mentioned earlier, yields did tumble a bit. ten-year around 3.75%. we'll be right back.

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sources of trouble this week, you know look no further than dollar tree and the chips. down 20% on dltr and the action in broadcom, intel, kla, nvidia, all with double-digit deincles week-to-date. stop trading with jim is coming up next. le category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise]

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time for jim and stop trading. >> apple, you don't necessarily buy it ahead of a launch. that has not worked. we have two piece, bank of america and td cowan, the cowan piece talking about artificial intelligence and how good they're going to fairing. whamsy mow hand from bank of america, global app store revenues grew 12% and service rev 14%. didn't buy it for the cycle. a lot of other things going, and i think that apple remains a kind of nice port in the storm, looking for those. because it's an ai beneficiary. whoever is spending a lot on ai, they get to take advantage of it. people should read our broadcom note that was out last night about what to do when the stock is down this much. for the club, i urge people to

get it, it's unemotional and worked for us before, because remember, this stock is up huge. people feel that it's not been a good stock. that's quite wrong. it's been a great stock, and it will still be a great stock. it's $7 in earnings power. thank you for elias. go ahead and sell it and get out. i want people to get out now, the fabled get out now, sell 130, good luck to you. see you tonight at 11:45. >> actually, you will see them on 6:00. >> we have a terrific story sweetgreen, delicious, reasonably priced. they have the model that everybody wants, they have good through put, a great locally sourced food, terrific attitude by the way, and a lot of hospitality. it's a combination of danny meyer and walter robb from whole foods and ron shake from panera

and cava. i think when you talk to these people, they're pros about how to make people happy, not just about food, and that's brilliant. >> yeah. we mentioned the upgrade from cou wan looking at the engineering piece as well. >> we want to see this infinite kitchen. it's so extraordinary. i would go as kind of an eighth wonder of the world it's so exciting. these guys are good. i mean, i've got to tell you, if i have to own a restaurant stock, i'm kind of rethinking. i happen to be a believer in eat, which is brinker. i've been a big fan -- >> cava. >> the stock has been a red hot stock, like chipotle. jonathan neman is a remarkable student of successful restaurants and he's put it all together. buy that stock, too. i feel like going after -- right here, going to jeff marks, my colleague, for our club, and saying let's put this one in the bull pen. this is a good stock. >> final thought on how viewers

should think about the jobs number this weekend. >> it's what we've wanted. not mass unemployment, some unemployment. not hot anymore. right level to buy things and for the fed to cut. just because they're selling a particular group, remember that group has been the hottest group. that's profit taking in the semis. again, quoting michael, please, this is not a slag of nvidia. i apologize, i have made it a slight of nvidia and it's not meant to be. it may be the hyper scalers are spending too much money. i remain a believer in owning nvidia, not trading. nothing changed for me. i understand the '90s. i don't care. >> go birds. >> go eagles. >> brazil. who would have thunk it. >> as we circulate around 5500, don't go anywhere.

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good friday morning. welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with carl quintanilla live as always from post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber has the morning off. stocks are lower on the headline. the s&p is down 0.4%. kind of mixed if you look beneath the hood. energy is rallying half a percent, that group. industrials, health care, financials, materials, staples and utilities are all higher. mix of defense and cyclical groups. what's not, technology, and that's what's weighing on the average. it's why the nasdaq is down a full percent capping off a an ugly week for the nasdaq. the major average, the s&p down almost 3% for the week. the dow holding up right now thanks to strength in goldman sachs, travelers, united health and caterpillar. kind of a mixed read of the jobs report in the markets. nvidia is down, tesla weaker, amazon, alphabet, netflix weighing on the tech sector. treasuries right now in response to jobs and what has been a big

bid in bonds pretty much all week long. go the other way a bit today. 10-year yield firmer, but still at a low 3.7%. the 2-year yield a little lower 35 at 3.74%. the uninverting where we've been flirting with. we are 30 minutes into the trading session here are big movers we are watching. look at broadcom shares tumbling after the company's revenue guidance for the current quarter came in less than expected we're going to take a closer look at that quarter and the outlook in just a moment and what it says about ai. super micro, from neutral to overweight slashing its price target from 450 to 600 among regulatory concerns. super micro down 30% over the last month of trading. the home builders, the home construction etf, itb up about 2% right now on pace for the first positive day in four.

quanex after a beat 20%. it comes down to jobs and this was a big one and the conclusion of it, as to whether it pore tends a 25 basis points or 50 basis points cut is sort of not clear. right? if you were in the 25 basis points camp before this number you're probably still there. if you were in the 50, the double before this, you're probably still there. what we got 142,000 jobs were added during the month of august. that was less than economists were looking for. but it was up from july, which was revised lower down to 89,000. if you break down where the jobs were and where the jobs were not, you know, you can see a picture of the economy. let's go to the positives first. okay. august jobs report was better than july. we saw a pick up. average hourly earnings, wages, actually were better than expected as well, 0.4%. the unemployment rate fell. so there are some signs here that point to a still healthy

labor market. on the downside, a lot of people are paying attention to the revises, so july and june got revised lower. also it was a headline miss. speaks to the overall softening in the trend. bottom line, carl, you could argue for both. you could argue -- it's clear that the fed wants to make a move here and we did hear from john williams, the new york fed president this morning, it's not clear how big of a move they want to make and it's sort of a philosophical one. do they want go bigger to start the process of getting back to neutral or do they want to go smaller because we still have a soft landing pretty much intact and there's not a lot of urgency for them to do that. >> looking at some of the reaction here, green capital doesn't really argue for 50 in their view. even nick timerrose of the journal, williams prepared remarks don't make effort to lay the groundwork for 50. >> we haven't seen anybody really lay the groundwork for 50, but we haven't seen them take it off the table either

which is why the market keeps guessing. as far as the williams' remarks he spoke this morning for the new york economic club and i pulled out one quote of what he said. he says, "with the economy now in he can questionpoise and inflation on a path to 2% it's appropriate to dial down the restrictivenessin the stance of policy by reducing the target range for the fed funds rate." if you don't know what equipoise is, he defined it according to the webster dictionary, equilibrium, but said because it's the start of school he wanted to do a middle school vocabulary word there. no hint on how big. definitely they're in a spot to start lowering. probability is they're going to go 25 and take it as they go. >> the other story remains labor supply. share of prime-age women in the labor force all-time high. >> that was a good story, especially when the overall labor force participation was a

slight tick lower than the previous month. the whole balance of labor supply and demand is very much in focus. we got the volts data yesterday and steve highlighted the ratio of ray cansies to unemployed. i want to show a good chart from bank of america on that. you see that ratio continue to improve or come down, which speaks to a cooling labor market. the job vacancies to unemployed fell to 1.1 from 1.2 and below levels seen prior to the pandemic. the three lines one represents the blue is where we are, the original in the good sector, the yellow in the services sector where there's more demand for labor so it hasn't been cooling off. look at a chart like that, and that speaks to the cooling. we know the fed pays attention to these charts as well. the only other one that i wanted to show from the bank of america charts was the revisions, remember the 800,000 revision lower. >> rings a bell. >> to march 2024, that was a very historically large revision

lower and there it is in context. basically of history of how these revisions get done over the prior year. it was a big one and i think it just says, take the exact headline numbers with a grain of salt and they have been revised lower and we got that for july and june as well. the labor market, if you're wondering is it super healthy, is it weak? maybe weaker than expected, just given the trend toward revisions lower lately. >> right. for more reaction to the jobs number this morning we're pleased to be welcomed by david kelly jpmorgan asset management chief global strategist. >> good to be here. >> as sara mentioned that, the period the last couple years where the revisions were consistently up, now we're in a period they're down. does that move the needle directionally for the fed? >> well, i hope the fed realizes where we are. what we're doing is just settling in to a slower expansion. that's all that's going on here. there's nothing in the data here which rings any alarm bells

which says, recession. but psychologically the economy is sort of in a delicate position here. if the fed were to panic and cut 50 basis points, people would start pulling back and that's the danger. that's why i think it is important for them to go 25. >> you think 50 would be self-fulfilling in some ways? >> oh, yeah. in fact, that's the problem. it's a delicate thing bringing down interest rates because you bring them down quickly the psychological negative of doing that overwhelms any positive from actually a lower cost of borrowing money. >> on the other hand, they are worried about it getting worse and if we are seeing a soft landing, then, you know, there's a line from a soft landing to something worse. >> yeah. >> more deterioration into a recession and if they are seeing their policy as over tightening at this point why not go a little bit bigger and start the process? >> this economy runs on confidence. and what you've got to do is

maintain that confidence. the message from the federal reserve should be, yep, the economy is very healthy. it's kind of like my doctor. you know, these days when i see my doctor he says you look like you're in great health for a man your age. it's like, this expansion is in good health for its age. we're going to print a cpi number next week which i think will be 2.6%, 4.2% unemployment rate. add those two numbers together better than the combination of being 85% of the time in the last 50 years there's nothing wrong with the economy. the important thing from the federal reserve to say is, problems underneath in different groups, but overall the macro picture is pretty good and the federal reserve should want just to sustain it. >> so playing around with theories, mark dow suggests they go 25 and they can tolerate a dissent for 50. would that make sense? >> yeah. well, of course, they can tolerate dissent. i will say one thing that jay powell has done very well, is he tends to pre poll all the members, try to rg and see if he

can get them all together. i don't think there's anybody in the committee who is going to be so strong in favor of 50 to push the needle. i would be surprised if we got a dissent. i think we will get 25 across the board and i think that's what he's arguing for right now. >> it's almost more -- also important, more important, what he signals going forward. the market prices in 100 basis points by the end of the year. is the market going to be disappointed if they do a few 25s? >> the funny thing, i think the market will be relieved. the bond market might be disappointed but the stock market will be relieved. if the federal reserve can save 25 basis points, we think the economy is fundamentally healthy but there is no call for monetary restraint right now we're going to ease rates back to normal that is a very positive message for the markets. i want the bond market to be disappointed. >> david, important day. appreciate it as always helping us understand the numbers. >> let's turn back to broadcom because it is the biggest loser on the s&p despite a beat on

earnings estimates adding for a tough week for semis. another ugly session for the group. what do you see? >> and sara, you alluded to broadcom but that stock now down nearly 9%. the networking chips giant is projecting 2024 ai sales of $12 billion, $1 billion higher than in its previous view, but failed to beat some of the more loftiest wall street estimates out there. mizuho summed it up nicely writing the problem here is that we got no material acceleration or upward revision that would excite investors. similar disappointment after nvidia. as what we learned about hyper scalar spend on ai, they made the point, as ai permeates all companies they will need to upgrade their servers, storage and network. confident on growing demand and incremental sales going up in the coming years. bring this back to the price action we're seeing, all smh components are enough on the

week led by asml, got the downgrade this week, there's intel and nvidia, down more than 10%, about 10%. in total companies on the smh etf have lost about $550 billion in market cap over the week. the majority of which has been really led by the decline that we have seen in nvidia following its earnings report last week. guys, the only stock in the semiconductor etf that is less than 10% from its 52-week high is texas instruments. a lot of key bullets we'll look to next week including jensen huang speaking on wednesday, sara. >> seema, thank you. seema moody. as we head to break here's our road map for the rest of the hour. former president trump giving details about his tax plan and vice president harris getting a boost from corporate leaders. >> bitcoin trading below 57 k as cryptos have the second biggest weekly outflow on record. we'll talk about where prices go from here. >> more street reaction to the latest jobs report. goldman sachs chief economist

jan hatzius joins us to discuss what the latest numbers mean for the fed. "squawk on the street" will be right back. the dow up 42 but the s&p and nasdaq negative. i can't believe you corporate types are still calling each other rock stars. you're a rock star. we're all rock stars. oooo look look at my data driven insights, i'm a rock star. great job putting finance and hr on one platform with workday. thank you! guys, can you keep it down. i'm working. you people are (guitar noises). hand over the air guitar. i've got another one. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ growing your business is easy once you know the moves. with godaddy websites plus marketing, you can quickly create a website,

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>> reporter: good morning, carl. that's right. this is a group of 88 business leaders from really across the private sector sending a show of force today to say harris would be the best candidate for business. now it's a broad group that includes some current ceos of box and yelp, aaron levie and jeremy stoppleman, stop chairman, chris larsson who co-founded ripple and the facebook co-founder, now with asana. more than a dozen names have ties to wall street that includes former blackstone president tony james, but the lion's share are former public company ceos like dan schulman of paypal, arnold donald of carnival. now i'm told the letter was organized by top harris backers that included blair efron and comes as harris is tacking to the middle including that move this week to soften biden's stance on capital gains taxes solely in order to shore up private sector support. trump does have executive-level support as well, including a

number of billionaires and players like elon musk and howard lutnick, but the letter does help harris argue the momentum is on her side. it comes on the same day her campaign reported out fundraising trump in august, 361 million to $130 million. while polls are mostly tied in those battleground states we can see now how harris is leaning on her cash advantage in these endorsements to make her case to voters before november. sara? >> meghan, thank you. this all comes a day after former president trump laid out a few of his key economic proposals at the economic club of new york. take a listen. >> my plan calls for expanded r&d tax credits, 100% bonus depreciation, expensing for new manufacturing investments, and a reduction in the corporate tax rate from 21% to 15%, solely for companies that make their product in america. >> with less than two months to

go before the election, let's discuss with national urban league ceo marc morial. thank you for joining us. >> thank you for having me. >> on the economic policy, one, it's not apples to apples but one discrepancy is the corporate tax rate she's proposing a rise to 28% and president trump is proposing a cut to 15% for made in america. that is a big gap, which could have big implications on how corporations spend and hire. >> sara, it's always been my view that the corporate tax rate is just one part of the conversation. another part of the conversation is what you do about the myriad of special interest deductions and credits and exclusions that are so built in to the corporate tax rate. i like a corporate tax rate which at the very least creates a minimum tax for corporations. so they can't wiggle around the tax code and pay zero, like

many, many companies, in fact, do today. so that's what's important. there will be a debate in congress about where the best rate is, but i would like to see a discussion about a rate that may be a little lower, maybe, than 28, but a little bit higher than 15. i like where it is today. but what puts a cap on elimination of all of these loopholes. that's where the game in the tax code is. >> yeah. >> and while it's nice to talk about all these tax credits and offsets, they tend to create an uneven playing field for corporations and an uneven playing field for economic policy. so that's kind of been my take for a long time. a good rate, minimum rate, but let's see if we can get all of the special interest loopholes out of the tax code for corporations. >> i'm not sure but it is a good

point. what about the rest of the economic vision president trump laid out. corporations are going to like that for every new regulation introduced. the government efficiency office, the plan to tax foreign nations to help pay down our deficit. >> trump's first term he talked about eliminating regulations. in fact he didn't. when he talked about eliminating regulations he talked about cutting back on environmental and civil rights regulations. those are nonstarters for us. so there was a lot of talk in his first term and not a lot of action on these things. people need to be careful of the hype. secondly, most of his plan is a rehash and an effort to, i think, to create, if you will, outsized benefits for large corporations versus much more of a focus on smaller start-ups, those that are in the middle.

that's where we need to put the investment, the juice, and the incentives. i think that's so key. but i also think that we can't forget in this discussion about economic policy, the remaining work that has to be done to implement the biden plan. infrastructure, manufacturing, the inflation reduction act, many components that the next president will have an opportunity to execute that i think are as important as any of these new ideas because the biden plan was so bold and it was so imaginative and it's why we've got the kind of economic rebound since covid, unprecedented in modern american history, after a recession. so this is not operating independent of what's happened over the last three years and the question is, who's going to retain those policies. who's going to execute the infrastructure plan. we build roads, bridges, water systems and the broadband system. who is going to make sure this

manufacturing investment, in fact, helps us create a competitive advantage and who is going to make sure we invest in the kind of new industries we need to confront climate change? that's on the table as well. >> i'm chuckling because it wasn't that long ago we had people come on the program and argue that elements of those programs, infrastructure and chips, need to be delayed because it was driving too much economic activity. it was draining the labor force. you couldn't get construction workers. i wonder if now, given what inflation has done, if you think there's more runway for those programs to survive? >> carl, there's a tremendous amount of runway for those programs not only to survive but too much of the trump plan and too much of what we historically have done has been short-term. a tax cut here, a tax deduction here, versus a long-term blueprint. i think what biden and harris did in the first three years is put a blueprint together, a long-term blueprint which helps

american business, helps american labor, plan. now we know, we have to train construction workers because there's going to be matconey th for the next eight to ten years. we have to train up and prepare people for the new technology jobs and the new manufacturing jobs because there's going to be an investment in rebuilding those industries. now we know that we've got to prepare our young people for the transformation to a greener economy because there's going to be investments there and those public investments are going to leverage up private investments. long term-ism, a long-term plan to rebuild the american economy is what we need. >> the thing is, it all sounds great and long term, but right now it's just how am i going to pay for my groceries and housing costs which have gone up pretty substantially in the last few years under a biden administration? so what do you tell people who say look, the status quo is not great. the cumulative impact of

inflation is brutal? >> i would remind the american people of the following, and that is, the economic challenges that joe biden inherited were exacerbated by trump's reaction to covid. he didn't create it. but he certainly could have done more to make it less -- make the response more intelligent, make the response more wholesome, make the response more effective. so he bears some of the responsibility that the biden-harris team has to clean up. one thing we do need to address, lingering inflation, is a housing plan. housing costs are driving inflation right now, continue to be a significant component, so let's say inflation is a problem, but whose policies will do better? it's nice to look back, but i think we got to look forward. i think the american people have to ask, who, in fact, can deliver the best economic

results for the next four years, goldman sachs, whether you love or like them, i respect them, said that the harris policies are superior to what donald trump has proposed. people need to be educated and i was also looking at some interesting numbers that compared republican and democratic administrations from the standpoint of a number of metrics, and i would urge you all to look into that to see whether the stock market, the jobs market, historically, who has it performed better under, what policies. i always take the point of view that 70% of the economy is driven by american consumers, and when american consumers andand working people and the middle class does better, our economy does better, business does better, and we have a better quality of life for all americans. i think that's the north star. >> i would say divided governments and depends on who is at the fed and what's happening. >> that's important. sara, that's crucially

important, but it's a dynamic economy with what the private sector does, congress does, fed does, all of these are so important when it comes to the economy. >> you mentioned goldman sachs and we will talk to jan hatzius who wrote that report and clarify what he meant and how he analyzed both of the candidates, economic policies. thank you for joining us. we appreciate it. >> thanks, sara, carl. appreciate you guys. >> still to come, bitcoin as we said, now trading below 56,000. someewatonowheon n da h t mey is flowing into the crypto space in a moment. ♪ (girl) wooo! ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." let's get a check on crypto today. it's an important day. bitcoin on pace for a second negative week after a pretty tough august now down more than 20% over the last three months and more than 25% off the 52-week highs. one chart making headlines crypto outflows per bank of america. second biggest on record at around $600 million. even as the etfs have driven so much institutional interest in crypto at large. bitcoin specific. >> there is excitement in this community around the prospect of

donald trump becoming president as he has been very positive and bullish, said it again yesterday, on crypto, and sort of bashing gary gensler at some of these crypto conferences. >> as long as it's american crypto. >> american crypto. right. >> that's exciting for the crypto community in america. the s&p is down about almost a full percent right now and every sector has turned red even though cyclicals like financials which had been rallying early. the dow has gone into negative territory down 134. still to come goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius will join us at post nine to break down this jobs report and his latest analysis on the trump versus harris economic policies. don't go anywhere.

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. welcome back. i'm silvana henao with your cnbc news update. former president donald trump in

a new york court this morning lodging an appeal against e. jean carroll. a jury awarded the writer $5 million in damages last year after finding trump liable for sexually abusing and defaming her. trump did not attend and his defense team did not call witnesses. the court is not expected to issue a decision on the appeal today, and it may not come until after the november election. the 14-year-old suspect in the shooting in a georgia high school earlier this week and his father will both remain in custody after their lawyers declined to seek bail this morning. the teen is charged with four counts of murder. his father is charged with involuntary manslaughter and second-degree murder accused of facilitating the shooting by providing his son a deadly weapon. and israeli forces ended a ten-day raid in jenin city, and its refugee camp in the west bank according to a palestinian news agency.

israeli forces have not confirmed the withdraw but said troops were there targeting terrorism. carl? >> thanks. silvana henao. the jobs number, august payrolls growing a bit less than expected, unemployment rate down to 4.2. steve liesman brought us the news andback to put it in more context. >> good morning. i call this a mixed jobs report leading to mixed views about what it means for the fed and the economic outlook. on balance, a close call, the street taking this report that leans more towards the soft landing camp than the hard landing and recession one. here are the numbers real quick. 142 below the 161 estimate. 4.2 on the unemployment rate, down a tick. average hourly wages, though, pretty healthy, speaking to a reasonably healthy jobs market if those wages are that high up to 3.8% on the year over year. maybe important part there it's beating inflation. you have real wage gains and you have those for quite some time now. a big part of this story minus 86 k on the downward revisions to june and july. payrolls part of a series of big

downward revisions from the bls. sometimes they tell us which way things are going, that would mean further weakness ahead. where the jobs, hospitality. health care, those are the main ones, and government not showing up 24,000. construction also doing well. a big part of that is specialty trade contractors. retail down 11, manufacturing down 24,000. here's how we're set up for the fed in the wake of this number. briefly the market priced in a 50 and then said maybe not and went back to pricing in essentially a 25 for september with a 63% probability. back to pricing in a 50 for november at 94%. and then up and down on and off with a 50 or 25 in december, just barely at 52%. bottom line is the market sticking to this idea of 100 basis points between now and the end of the year. here's some of the commentary i've been reading about. it was a solid if unspectacular

report. morgan stanley says it implies recession fear mace have been done overdone but confirms slowing. pimco says it's an economy slowing but not crashing. an expansion where skeptics outnumber believers and have done so from the beginning. what's clear the job market is slowing, revisions support the idea of a further slowdown, but so far nothing in the data tells us it's more than a soft landing, but the bears, guys, seem ready to stampede the bulls at the drop of any piece of bad data. >> i think that gets to the fed, steve, and how they might look at this. as you say, there's a lot you can point to in this report that still suggests it's a healthy labor market and it's normalizing and it's softening, but no urgency really to cut. the question is, how does powell, how do the key members of the fed look at it? >> i think they're going to see an urgency to cut. the question is how much urgency. >> right. >> the issue of timing. >> go big. >> pace and aggressiveness. i think part of it is

expectation, sara. we've gotten used to these outsized reports, 170, 200, 250, it may be time while we're in a mode the same reasons we're going to be cutting, are the same reasons why our expectations for what the payroll number should be should essentially be lower and that gets down to this key about normalizing. i like this idea, we're coming around the corner on the expressway from la guardia, heading towards the tarmac. all that's below us is water. >> yes. every time and you land in la guardia. always a little scary. thank you, steve. steve liesman, appreciate it. our next guest forecasts a string of three consecutive 25 basis points rate cuts this year. goldman sachs chief economist jan hatzius joins us at post nine. welcome. >> good to be here. >> what did you make of the jobs data as it relates to the question of what the first cut looks like? >> i think it was a little weaker than expected. we thought that the payroll number might look a bit soft but it was slightly below our

forecasts. there was some downward revisions. the household survey basically did what we thought. so i think you could certainly make an argument that the funds rate is very high and you should move off a 5 handle and so there is a rationale for a 50 basis points cut like last time, i thought there was a good case for doing a 25 basis point cut. whether that's what they will do is less clear. i think at this point, to me it looks more likely they do 25 with a clear message of ongoing cuts, with, of course, signals that there will be more cuts to come, you know, if you look at what chicago fed president goolsbee said earlier in the week. >> yeah. >> a case for a string. but there's still some information to come, of course, in particular next week's inflation numbers, but at this point i'm still with three

consecutive 25s the rest of the year. >> we have goolsbee on with steve on "money movers" in the next hour. it will be good to get his first reaction and whether he will tip his hand. we haven't really heard any members of the fed say we need a 50. we haven't heard them necessarily rule it out, but i do wonder if there would have to be bigger problems underneath the surface. as you say the report was weaker. however, wage growth was firmer than expected. the unemployment rate actually fell and the overall number represented an increase in job growth from july and june. not all bad. >> yeah. there's also i think a process issue in the sense that there's not only a rate decision, but there's also a dot plot, and there is the messaging from the committee and many participants until recently were not really convinced that they should be cutting at all. so whether you then end up with a 50 basis point cut because the leadership has had a strong

view, but the dot plot shows only relatively little beyond that, that would also be i think inconvenient from the perspective of sending a unified message. >> the other news from the earlier in the week took a look at productivity and labor costs and i heard some argue that it closed the door a little bit more on the notion that inflation would somehow rear its ugly head again. or we get some kind of double top. does that seem fair? >> i think that's right. unit labor costs barely up over the last year. that's certainly encouraging. so even with nominal wages still growing close to 4% above where we were prepandemic, you know, ultimately the question is, does that translate into unit labor cost growth and into cost pressures that would lead to inflation being sticky above 2%. i don't see that in the numbers. i would agree with you that this was also an incrementally encouraging signal. >> you're still at 15% recession odds?

you don't see tinkering with that metric any time soon? >> well, we are at 20% at the moment. >> you are 20. >> we lifted it to 25 on the back of last month's report and shaved it back down to 20%. so 15 is the unconditional average. one recession every seven years on average. so we think we're a little above that. but 80% is a pretty big number. >> you wrote a report this week analyzing a lot of the tariff policies specifically of donald trump and kamala harris. and the headline everywhere was "goldman sachs sees bigger boost to u.s. growth from a harris win." is that true? can you clarify exactly what you analyzed here and why you got to that? it's being cited. mark moreyle just used it. >> it was on the cover of "drudge". >> we looked at a number of policies including tariffs and fiscal policies, including immigration. i think the main takeaway is that the differences are

actually relatively small. if you go back to the last couple presidential elections, they had big macro impacts. the trump tax cuts post-2016 election, the biden stimulus post-2020 election, prelative t that these numbers are small. a few tenths of a percentage point one way or another. i would say this is not very large. now, we coudon't know. there's uncertainty about what is implemented. our working assumption on tariffs specifically, one of the most important parts of it, there will be china tariffs and pretty sizable, but our best guess is no across-the-board 10% tariff. >> i don't know. he was talking about it yesterday as way to pay down the deficit. >> your point has been it's less politically palatable and unlikely to get as much support. >> it's going to be more

controversial. the china tariffs will be reasonably popular. they can be imposed unilaterally. i think there are also more legal questions around the across-the-board tariff. a question around negotiations on the back of tariffs, that's, of course, when you impose them on everybody, so it certainly could happen. it could happen. and that would have, you know, of course implications, but it's not part of our baseline estimate. >> did you factor in her proposal to raise the corporate tax rate to 28%, and the capital gains rates? >> we did. and i think that has implications, of course, for growth and -- that subtracts from growth, and it has implications for the stock market. for example, in another report we published this week which didn't get as much attention. >> david kostin. >> higher corporate tax rate

would be bad for the stock market. >> i think it was 5% hit for earnings versus a 5% plus for earnings. >> it's basically one-to-one. you move the corporate tax rate by a percentage point, and that takes off about 1% from corporate earnings. of course that's going to have an impact on valuations. >> got it. well, jan, thank you. we're glad we had you to clarify all of it and give context. jan hatzius, chief economist at goldman sachs. >> still to come we'll talk to nfl super agent drew rosenhaus following the thrilling opening game for the league as the chiefs just outlast the ravens setting your sights on brazil tonighwi pket thacrs and the eagles. we're back in two. to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts

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the defending super bowl champions kansas city chiefs taking the first game of the nfl season in the thriller against the ravens last night. agent drew rosenhaus joins us this morning to talk about his expectations for the season. drew, it's our favorite time of year. >> it really is. carl, it's -- it was a great way to start the season. it was a thrilling win. it was really decided by one inch on an incomplete pass. he barely touched the end line. but it was a fun game. it was vintage patrick mahomes and lamar jackson, two multitime mvps. and it was also fun to see some breakout players. i mentioned isiah, the young tight end right there for the ravens had an awesome football game and for the chiefs, xavier worthy, who is the fastest player in the history of the

combine, he had two huge touchdowns. he was electrifying. the chiefs were good enough. now they add one of the fastest guys ever, pretty scary thought. >> drew, i'm thinking of all the ways the season is going to be so fascinating. the ongoing evo betting, right? the other is the way distribution is rapidly changing. and now this global expansion with the game tonight in brazil. how do you think that's going to color the way people perceive the sport? >> well, tonight is a classic example of the future of the nfl. it's a game on peacock, streaming only on peacock, and it's in brazil. so, that is, in a nutshell, what's really exciting about the nfl. internationally and with all these streamers, partnering with the amazons and peacock and, you know, and in the future i'm sure we'll see more streamers. we have netflix in the mix now.

certainly in the future you'll see apple tv. the nfl is just known for their business acumen, their partnership with gambling, they're embracing international football throughout the world, their partnership in europe now expanding to south america. it's really an exciting time. >> but there's this article in the journal specifically on the streaming and the fact that, of course, the nfl is going where the viewers are going, but if you want to watch everything, you have to pay for all of the services and it can be quite costly. the journal set up 500 a year and if you add in the youtube package for the super fans, another 500 to the bill, is that going to be restrictive? >> no, i don't think so, sara. and and i'm not a lawyer for the nfl here, but i do think there's plenty of games on free tv, on the networks.

and you always have the games in the local markets and the national games on monday night, on sunday night, and thursday night, streaming. friday night, streaming. but that wasn't a part of the viewership all these years anyway. it's just an add-on for fans. it's not a subtraction with the streaming. it's in addition. and it's optional. and for those fans and businesses that want to watch these extra games, let's face it, there's plenty of football. there's two national games during the day every sunday and then there's obviously the local games and there's the sunday night game and monday night. now, if you want to spend extra money on thursday and friday night, for example, tonight you can do it. >> i'm trying to think of another business where you had not just increased distribution but adding marginal buyers of your product, drew, who have the deepest pockets of virtually any company in the world.

>> yeah, i'll go on the record and say i think the nfl could sell games every night of the week. i think they could have a game seven days and the ratings would be just about higher than any other program. i'm not advocating for that. people just can't get enough of the nfl. it's as simple as that. now that you factor in the partnership with gambling, it makes it even more exciting. obviously, it opens up a lot more for fans. and the nfl is just trying to make it more fan-friendly and give fans more options. for me as a player agent, i'm all for it. allows our clients to make more money and in turn it's good for the game and the players. i'm all for extra games on streaming. >> i'm sure we'll talk a lot through the season, but at this moment do you have some playoff favorites? >> well, obviously, it's hard to go against the chiefs and watching how well they played. they've got the best player in

football in mahomes. and it's exciting to watch the kelce/taylor swift drama. they're definitely in the mix. it's hard to go against the niners right now. i know this may sound like an easy answer to repeat last year's super bowl, as we see taylor swift. she's done a lot for the nfl, too. that's a whole other topic. my only prediction is another rematch between the niners and the chiefs. and i think the niners will get them this time. >> wow. all right. we'll save that tape. as i said, drew, hopefully we'll get you a lot this season. as always, our thanks. drew rosenhouse on an exciting week for football. the packers will take on the eagles in sao paolo. you can join cnbc's game plan boardroom conference in l.a. they bring together athletes, owners, investors to talk about

the dynamic between music, sports, entertainment. scan the qr code or visit cnbcevents.com/gameplan to register. stocks are moving lower. we are tracking for our worst week for the s&p since march 2023 and for the nasdaq it's april. let's get to bob pisani as we deteriorate, bob. >> s&p down 1%. the nasdaq down 2%. they're taking the multiple down on technology stocks all this week. not necessarily earnings but the multiple. take a look at the week. we're down across the board. the nasdaq is weaker. the russell 2000, which is a disappointment to the broadening crowd, down rather significantly. for the week you can see huge differences. defensive stocks holding up relatively well. interest rate sensitive sectors like utilities and reits if you put that up there. and tech is the weak group, down

6.5%. the semiconductors are getting hit rather hard. they're down about 11% here. today semis are getting taken down again. broadcom's earnings weren't terrible but 30% off the highs joining nvidia. all of these stocks, most of them, in june hitting their highs. this week, again, same situation. you see them down rather notably for the week. the leaders today, lower interest rates helping the home builders, peulte, lennar, c carrier. the issues for stocks is how soft is the soft landing? people have been trying to front-run a recession for two years and they've been wrong but there is gray addations of the landing. another trying to front-run september and october is the weakest months.

they're not dropping the earnings here. if you want to look, though, look at nvidia, carl, nvidia's multiples have dropped dramatically. 37 on the current fiscal year. was 48 on the nets fiscal year it's 26. it was 36. bottom line here is, certain stocks like nvidia, multiples coming down. that makes it more attractive. carl, back to you. >> bob, thanks. "money movers" begins right after this break. is it me... or is work not working? at least, not the way it could work. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business. your people work better, your customers are happier, and todd... well... he's practically euphoric.

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good friday morning. welcome to "money movers." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. right now close to session lows. dow's down 230. chicago fred president goolsbee is with us. we'll get his reaction to that report and the outlook for rate cuts. the ceo of the largest u.s. natural gas producer, eqt, the