aggressively too. worst week for the s&p and the dow of the year, worst week for the nasdaq since 2022. >> what happens to yields from here as investors look at the appropriate balance now between equities and bonds. that is one of the questions you have to continue to tackle. >> 5/we see this spread. that will do it for us at "overtime." >> "fast money" begins right now. >> this is "fast money." what's on tap, a growth scare on wall street. stocks sinking as a weak jobs report raises concerns and the nasdaq closing out its worst week in over two years. have we ruled out hopes for a soft landing? the countdown on to apple's next reveal. monday's event and how it could impact the stock. crude gets crushed. prices hitting their lowest level since june of last year. out of the ether, out of the crypto etfs and streaming to the

2024 season and who could come out mvp. i'm melissa lee coming live to you on the desk tonight. tim seymour, carter worth, dan nathan and steve grasso but start out with the major sell-off. a nearly 2% drop. the dow falling and the nasdaq, worst week since january 2022 comi coming after a disappointing jobs report, raising fears rising by 142,000, well below expectations for a gain of 161,000, prior month's growth was revised lower, as well while the unemployment rate ticked lower as expected, the real unemployment rate which includes discouraged workers and those holding part-time jobs edged up to 7.9%. that was its highest rating in nearly three years. all this ahead of next week's big cpi. but was the reaction justified?

tim? >> i think it was. now, i said last night i actually thought we were going to get a surprise. i thought we would get better numbers so i'm trying to hedge my comment because i think we've all felt bad news is not just bad news but it's really bad news based pong what we saw august 2nd and that last payroll number. so the question is, this number at 142 doesn't scream recession. what it does do is puts the balance of risk to the soft landing scenario i think to the downside and i think that's part of what you got here. i think you had a whole lot of dynamics this this and where we're getting now the underperformance in this market, i think, kind of speaks to where i think people should be most concerned. but where you had the most exaggerated moves and what we've seen from the bond market is really fascinating, because, again, equities, credit don't tell you they're worried about recession or anything close to it. whereas commodities and absolutely the bond market and

moving that two-year and what we've seen and talked about this disinflation of the yield curve. suddenly that cpi number next week, i know this this sounds like a new concept. get used to it. we don't want it to be too weak. a little inflation, deflation is obviously the devil for markets and that's something you see after bubbles of all kinds, so i mean it would be kind of weird to say let's pull for some inflation but i don't want to see an overly soft -- >> expectations were not that high if you think about it heading into the print. if they had come out with a number that was sub 100,000 which last month was revised to. the number was, what, 89,000 or something like that. that would have been bad and i would have said what might have justified this sort of move. what's curious to me last night we're sitting on the desk talking about the fed watch tool pricing in only a 40% probability of a 50 basis point cut. that went down today, right? so i just think that's really interesting. so if markets were trying to bully the fed into a 50 basis,

like, cut, they didn't get it today so i don't think the news was that bad and you tell me if the cpi isn't as bad as people expect, then you have a situation where it's probably 25 and maybe, maybe investors are disappointed on september 18th because of that, but at the end of the day i think yields, i think crude, i think the dollar and i think maybe rates have kind of run ahead of what the fed might do. >> i think the september effect is probably equally as important to all of this. >> seasonality. >> just seasonality, i think it's cause and effect and what's reality, what's perception. so, everyone perceives this to be the worst month of the year. it becomes the worst month of the year. the fed's probably going to cut 25 basis points. i don't think there is a reason to cut 50. everything else is sort of in line. it's the worst month for the stocks and the market and the entirety of wall street, right? so if everyone comes back from

vacation, look at the desk. we're crowded no. no one is remote on a friday. everyone is back so what do people do when they're back? they sell stocks and sit in front of their computer all day long. if they have liquidity they use the liquidity to lightening up and rebalance. i don't want to make a big deal about it. i think it's more seasonality. >> at the end of the day, you mentioned key asset classes. they all peaked a year ago, the u.s. dollar peaked exactly a year ago. crude oil peaked a year ago, all in september, october. rates peaked a year ago and the stock market has brann the odd man out and now the stock market is showing that it's going to join the party, right? we know this. that on the year the s&p is up 13.5% but 48% of all stocks in the index are down on the year and one-third of the index is down more than 10%. it's not a particularly constructive market and the fear that you're seeing by people moving into these -- i mean colgate, palmolive, the steep moves, that's almost hyper

defensive. that's not a bullish thing. it's a bearish thing. >> funny you bring that up. i was looking at some charts and, you know, at&t, next era energy, we talked about altria. not only do they look like tech stock, they look like nvidia. charts are up like this. at&t, the biggest dog in the market so to speak for at least ten years, so that is a tell, what's defensive is working and what really has been working only is a handful of stocks. >> the key, no manager says i should allocate to tobacco and at&t because i think i'll win the race the next 36 months. it's because they cannot hold cash if they are selling and selling high-flyers like nvidia and rotating in but already that trade is full. those stocks are up 40%, 50% from a year ago. >> at&t, though, was over a 5% yield so -- we don't buy stocks for yield because they could get wiped out in one day, but if you're trying to replace and think rates are coming in, we

talked about the two nights ago, the etfs that do the best are going to be staples, health care and utilities. for the month of september. so, to tim's point and carter's point you could have a sell the event in those three things but there will be a safety bet are to the next couple of weeks. >> is this a -- not a sideshow. >> no. >> but an excuse to sell. >> no. >> in what would have normally been a seasonally weak month, a period where the stock market has been the odd man out so why not take some profits off the table and you know what, the jobs -- >> if you look at a vix that is north of 20, okay, that's implying a 2% move in either direct. se seasonally the week-long average is 1%. okay, who cares? that's just a narrative -- >> it's been the weakest month, though, even on a relative basis for the last 100 years. >> in a raging bull market for two years as of two weeks ago, so when i think about what

carter said, it's important when you see folks piling into staples and utilities and health care and go up like this uncorrected i agree it's bearish. what is also bearish, nvidia has had three $1 trillion moves in the last three months, okay, just think about that, right? if you're putting -- coming out of nvidia and putting it back into these other things because you think there's going to be a rotation, well, that's not -- i just think that's a recipe for disaster in my opinion. >> so, s&p, how does it look right now? the charts don't look good, right? >> we might have charts here but if not we can certainly -- >> we can create some. >> so the question is, have we broken trend? we have. here's a chart, i think we got three that has no trend lines. let's put some in and so this is a well-defined -- you'll see in a second, a channel. a mathematically perfect 45-degree angle and have broken and rallied back to the underside of the channel and hit our head and finally, of course, we have the notion of a double

top. it's not a great setup but it's not really about the s&p and that's important. it's about the parts that compose the whole, right? and so when a stock goes up 40%, 50% and is not a growth stock like philip morris, it is full so the money is rotated but it won't keep doing that because at some point it is too expensive. the ones that are starting to roll like microsoft can roll a lot more. >> so, that's fair, and i do think, though, it's very much about the economy. i think it's very much about a fed that's had to address something that they were very late to the party on and maybe they're late to the party on the way out. i'm preferring to see -- and i know the "r" word is a terrible word for stocks but not necessarily that bad for in terms of clearing out certain parts of things that just weren't working so cyclically you have to recessions at some point. i know stocks don't like it but i think 142 and the market's reaction and last month, that market reaction was absolutely

economically based and so i know there are different dynamics, there are technical forces at work here but the real question is, a lot of people thought we were going to be in a recession by now two years ago, so i'm not -- was that wrong? obviously it was wrong, doesn't mean that the premise of an economy that was goosed to the nines by fiscal policy during covid and a divide nammic around monetary policy which gooses to the nines, i mean, at some point this is a sugar high. >> our first guest sees the jobs market softening but not collapsing and points to gradual fed easing. let's bring in gregory docco. the comments about front loading, you don't buy that. you think 25 still. >> i still think 25. now the question is, how fast it will go after september. policymakers in general are on board for a gradual onset to the easing cycle and continue to talk about the method cal approach. this jobs report which all eyes were on this morning does not

indicate any form of collapse in the labor market. we had an encouraging jobs print and rebound in hours worked and slight downtick in the unemployment rate. the most important gauge in my opinion is a three-month moving average of payroll growth at 116,000 jobs only. well below trend which indicates that the labor market is visibly slowing. so while i don't think fed policymakers will proceed with a large 50 basis point rate cut i think they should accelerate the rate of policy recalibration because it's too restrictive right now. >> what do you think the risk of recession is at this point or are you still expecting as a base case scenario a soft landing? >> i think we've been in a soft landing camp for the better part of the last year really. we've seen inflation come down quite easily. that was the main aim of the fed's restrictive monetary policy stance of the as we look forward we're seeing an

environment where disposable income growth has slowed. only 1% year-over-year growth since july. consumers are still spending as of midyear but the underlying drivers of consumer spending are weaker. that's really the key element to pay attention to. i don't think we're headed into a recession right now, what we are seeing is more prudence on the part of consumers that have lower income momentum and on the part of businesses that are being cautious given the still high interest rate environment and uncertainty on the political front. >> so, greg, walk us through when you look at inflation and everyone talks about cpi, what that level of inflation is. walk us through that calculation you do with wage growth that is not consistent with a 2% or an above 2% inflation rate. >> yeah, i mean the main point of discussion was whether wage growth was inflationary and the notion is that wage growth is inflationary when it's above

3.5% and that's a simple calculation, 2% inflation which is the fed's target and 1.5% productivity growth. what we're seeing and this is perhaps the most encouraging element of the u.s. economy is that productivity growth is very strong. looking at growth around 2.7% year over year as of the second quarter of this year. add 2.7% productivity growth to the 2% inflation target. that puts you at 4.7% which would be wage growth consistent with the 2% target. we're currently running around 3.8 as of the latest payrolls report and under the pace of growth that would be consistent with inflation so we're not seeing any inflationary momentum in short coming from the labor market today. >> greg, thank you. great to see you. greg daco. greg said 25 basis points. you're saying feds fund future, that contract was telling us very low probability. >> everything i read leading up today was like traders are bracing for bad news that will

lead them to a 50 basis point cut. >> was the sell-off today fear that there would be a 50 point basis cut. >> i think it goes back to 5th. this is oddly the same thing playing out for a lot of the same reasons too. what's different month over month is what's happening to the mag 7. what we're seeing, tesla down all year long, google just blasted through its august 5th low, okay. microsoft looks like it's about to do that too. obviously nvidia is a bit away but they're just -- those stocks there was not an up tick all day long. when you see that price action that leads you to believe that there's lower lows coming. now, is it a great press on an afternoon like this, probably not. you're probably going to get opening and have an opportunity to resell. >> it's an interesting precedent and closing on the lows on a friday when it was down every day this eek, and there's a lot of stats out there and we'll read them all over the weekend but it's the first time since 2012 that we've had consecutive

1.5 or greater percent losses on a papyroll day and that tells yu the fear this is changing rapidly so, again, back to a market that's always some relative change, carter speaks about it all the time, if the fed and our last economist friend just referenced this dynamic with the fed, they start slowly but may pick up the pace. if the end -- i brought this term last night, fed gradualism. okay, so fed gradualism is over and i think we're getting there. that's a big change for this market. if we get to a place where u.s. exceptionalism, terms that strategists and economists use but the u.s. has stood out for so long and been such a safe haven that these asset flows that have been dollar supportive enmore importantly to the mag 7, today doesn't do that. i'm not saying that. i'm saying these are things the market needs to ponder and these are major changes. >> the message of the charts, to

short the s&p? >> well, for starters, very few people short. so first hinge is, there's nothing to be lost by postponing all new buying. right? just stand aside. for those who do short, for sure. i think the great irony here is not once did the ten-year yield close above 5%. higher for longer, it sounds like a cocktail when you go to a bar. i'll have one of those. [ laughter ] >> that sounds like a different kind of thing. >> but notice when they give you the specialty ones instead of picking the gin and tonic. i'll have that. it never happened. that's all gone, poof. rates down, oil down. dollar down. here comes the stock market. >> all right. meantime, tech investors are waiting apple's big iphone event monday. they're calling it glow time, some new siri features and expected to debut four new i phones and focus on its

platform. it's up 6%. outperformed the s&p over that time. you made that point, tim. that means there's a lot riding on monday. >> there's a lot riding but i'm not so sure -- i think apple is getting a bit of a pass in terms of nobody expected this to be extraordinary so part of that breakout from 185 which was a level that took us two years to get through while all of its peers went a lot higher, i think that's secret that can still allow it to be defensive talking about the balance sheet and the free cash flow generation and the iphone business alone is the 12th largest company in the world. that dynamic doesn't really change. i think there are higher expectations but at some point we know people need to refresh. the news is, next week is very important but the defensive nature of apple, i think it can stay defensive. >> let's tie it back to all the things we were talking about. if the consumer is weakening and the economy is, who the heck is going to go out and buy a $1300 increased price of an iphone based on some features that we don't even know if they work. how many people who own an

iphone rely on siri for anything? you think they're going to nail it right out of the gate. >> if you do -- >> they've already pushed out a bunch of features tshowcased at wwdc. i'm not convinced that what they showed us in june is going to be the sort of thing that causes the super siegel. how many times on this desk for 15 years have we heard about the super upgrade cycle. >> this time, though, there might be a natural built-in reason, a catalyst for a cycle. >> give it a year. >> more than 300 million phones have not been upgraded for four years. more than four years. >> it's everything before the iphone 15 and most people will upgrade because of the camera. like, that's the reason and the camera, there's significant changes and improvements so i think you have the annual, will it be a super cycle? maybe not. is it going to be a significant cycle upgrade? i think it will be and we also all know that the day of the event, the stock usually sells

off after the event. >> i think by the way on the camera, the camera is too good. it takes better pictures than it should. >> like better than real life. >> exactly. like i'm in an environment where suddenly it's dark and the settings aren't good and getting crazy good pictures. now i think -- >> where are you in the dark taking pictures. >> that's another story. >> the truth is people don't upgrade for the cameras. >> it's for the battery. >> they do it for the battery. the battery is made to die in about 2 1/2 years. >> better battery, research and development -- >> they haven't had anything innovative and always copied samsung. if you're caught up in that apple ecospace you want to stay there and gives a better chance of upgrading? >> coming up on the two-year anniversary of apple's relative peak to the sector, the 27th of september, 2022. here we are september of 2024. the real question is in the event of further general selling, does apple -- that game

would you rather? does apple do better or worse than the market? that's the question. is it a defensive asset because of its size and cash and all those things. >> i'll play this game. >> okay. >> so -- >> i'm looking to see mel. >> fine, go ahead. it's friday, why not. >> does apple go down fmore tha 10%. >> i agree. >> i disagree. >> if investors are starting to focus more on valuation. we haven't even talked about it yet. they do it when you have a broad market sell-off and correlations go higher. here's a company expected to grow earnings and sales single digits for the next couple of years or so without any real incremental margin improvement and that is obviously something that i believe a year from now. two years from now. if ai really works for them on this device, then it's going to get -- they'll have services associated. >> but let's say you're a money manager and can't be in cash will you buy apple or altria or

apple or procter & gamble? i mean -- >> that's the worst would you rather i've ever heard in my life. >> in terms of defensive choices there aren't that many -- >> i don't get it. >> why is procter -- >> cash flow. >> big discretionary item. >> it's like a utility. >> install based. >> what are we talking about? apple, there's been trouble getting above 185. the stock has done nothing for 2 1/2 years. i don't think you really -- you're not chasing much. >> where it went right back to on august 5th, 190. the level it broke out from. if it gets back there for any reason associated with this launch, it doesn't go as well. >> it will sell off after the launch and rally into the release date. coming up what's wrong with nvidia? the pace setter headed for its worst week in two years. we will turn to the chart master next. plus sprinurisg data out of the crypto etf space as bitcoin tu tumbles.

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nate jones... lines things up... checks his fidelity app... looks to outside analysts to get a second opinion. nate likes what he sees... and he places the trade... talk about easier investing. welcome back to "fast money." the semiconductor etf plunging 4%. down 11% for the holiday-shortened trading week and nvidia down nearly 14%, its

worth week in two years. is there more trouble ahead for the semis? let's turn to the chart master. what do you think, carter? >> this was a tough one, i must say. let's try to figure it out together. let's go right to the charts. the first is a relative strength chart, ratio chart that depicts the semiconductor index, the sox, relative to the s&p and you see that dotcom peak and only this year, 24 years later did the sox recoup all of its relative losses only however to inch above that line and now pull back. that is the prospects of a big double top. moving on, look at the smh, a well-defined uptrend. another 3%, 4% from here would leave us right on that line to the penny. i think we're headed there so that's not a whole lot but that is lower. let's look at the big one. nvidia, two charts of nvidia. the first, well-defined trend lines and you can see arrows to

the penny, to the penny. we sold off to the penny to trend today. change the iteration and put in the moving average of this mechanism. the exact sail level you'll see here and we stopped to the penny again. and so the question is, do you play for tactical bounds. nvidia's relative performance to the smh and this is the really orderly thing. if you have to be in this space or you want to be in this space, i think nvidia is the play. >> interesting. >> he is our smoothing mechanism. >> by the way, i love how -- >> we do this stuff together. we're going to figure it out. >> the technicals, to the penny. you nailed it. the one thing about the fundamentals we've been talking about customer kong sen trace, a theme we'll start hearing more and more. it was one of the reasons why broadcom was down as much as it was considering it was a good quarter. the guide was a little below expectations and it becomes a game of expectations, right? think about a microsoft and that

one, you and i were talking about, carter, it looks like death. it looks like a textbook head and shoulders top. massively underperformed, the s&p and the nasdaq so far, it's only up 7% for the year but this company has an amazing opportunity looking out a year or two. like the same conversation we're talking about apple, under 1% of their, like, they have millions and millions of users are testing co-pilot, all right. that's using openai's technology, they are a huge seller of openai. openai pays them $3 billion a year. so at some point all of this capex will slow and starting to see it already so all these stocks will come down but will create a great opportunity to buy them for the real ai trade that's going to happen i in '25, '26. they pulled forward too much of that performance. >> that ai might be totally different at that point. nvidia bounced around the round number, big fat number of 100. if you look at the 200-day moving average it's 89.11 so if

you're taking a risk now, you're pretty close there, right, within 10% of where that foundational price could be, but for mere i'm going to wait because i think if dan's right and these things are going to all sell off but for me semiconductors, worst month, i'm not pooh-poohing it. i'll stay on the sidelines until i get a better entry. >> it wasn't a pooh-pooh. it was a smackdown. >> i didn't even know you said that. >> i didn't take it that way. >> he doesn't listen. [ laughter ] >> really quick, i mean, what's interesting about nvidia, it hasn't been this cheap in, you know, on a current earnings basis in probably two years and so many say i'm not going to have happen to me what i could have done in early '22 with nvidia and there are buyers for this stock out there. >> here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: cause for crypto concern? bitcoin is tumbling back below $55,000 and big money is flowing

out of ether etfs. will the pressure continue through year end? plus, oil prices seeing their worst drop since october. our next guest warns that china's weak economy could send the energy trade toward a crude awakening. the forecast and the fallout next. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square. we're back right after this. zers and 3 vitamins. for all your skins, gold bond.

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we've got a news alert of new names joining the s&p 500. julia boorstin has the details. >> palintir, dell and erie indemnity are joining the s&p 500 and sending shares higher in after-hours trading replacing american airlines group, etsy and bio rad laboratories and american airline replaces negna. i'm sorry. excuse me, small cap 600 and bio rad labs replaced erie indemnity in the s&p midcap 400. those shares moving but the three companies joining the s&p 500 where we're seeing stocks

spiking. back over to you. >> julia, thanks. julia boorstin. palintir, tim. you like that. >> i like it. i actually owned it until through weeks ago, extraordinary run and felt like it was time to take a breather. that was the wrong move and sold it around 27. i think it's going higher. we just got numbers from the company and it fits under a high multiple tech stock that needs to support its earnings profile. $70 billion company at this point that i think has some very sweet choice fortune 500 companies. it's not just the government anymore in terms of contracts. they are some of the smartest guys in the room at a time when we know this space has everybody's attention. >> dell is interesting. we've spent a lot of time, the servers that go into these, you know, data centers powering the testing of these large language models and so, again, this is a low margin business and we think that there's going to be pressure on this going forward, but here's the thing, when you have a stock up 7% on this announcement, these are not the indexers that have to put these

stocks into the index, right? these are traders, you know, suspecting that there's going to be a multiweek sort of process where the indexers have to buy them, so this sort of action is sometimes the sort of thing that you want to fade depending upon when they're going in. i find it curious these moves happen. >> coming up, crude oil cruising to its worst week in nearly a year and our next guest says the red dragon's green turn hurts black oil. the clear warning behind that cryptic message next. plus, looking into our crystal ball ahead of oracle earnings outperforming its software peers over the last month. are the gains here to stay? we'll consult the charts right after this. >> annouermiednc: ss a moment of "fast," follow the "fast money" podcast right after this. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo,

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$6.99 footlongs? yep! says right here. $6.99 for any footlong. get this deal in the subway app now before it's too late. welcome back to "fast money." brent an crude seeing their worst week since october 202323. brent plunging almost 10% this week while wti fell 8% and b of a cutting its price outlook due to softer demand dynamics. francisco blanc is behind the call. great to have you with us. i'll go to the title of the note because i mean it sounds poetic.

the red dragon's green turn hurts black oil. can you unpack that for us? >> thanks for having me. melissa, so, it is a little bit poetic, i'd say. look, i mean, there's -- in the title, unfortunately for oil, it's been more red than not and part of it really is that we have a little more supply coming from the western hemisphere. opec supplies are growing pretty quickly. growth from the u.s. and canada, guyana, brazil, argentina, so we have a 1.6 million barrels of supply for next year and against that we have a slowing demand picture globally. we believe global demand growth will probably be at around 1.1 million barrels a day and leaves us in a meaningful surplus. and, of course, the third leg of this equation is what is opec

going to do? and, frankly, opec gave us the news overnight they'll be holds back on that production increase they were hoping to accomplish when they set out the target of bringing back 2.2 million barrels a day in june or earlier in june this year so those are the three legs to think go. >> francisco, it's tim. thanks for joining us. i guess my question would be, i guess we're here to pick stocks. you're ultimately there to forecast the oil price but a lot of times the move in an oil price forecast is a function of time, where we've gone in the year, where we expect it to be. at this point we have to upgrade because oil prices have been here. when you've hiked the oil price in the past, what's the impact? ultimately again we can read through i guess we're supposed to do that on equities but to kind of see what the other side of this is, how significant is this move for you or is this a function of both the calendar and obviously the fundamentals you talked about on supply.

>> for us i think obviously the spoke price of oil is always going to be a function of supply and demand, inventory direction. the forward price is a little trickier to pin down because it's going to build out some expectations. around what will happen over the course of the next 18 to 24 months, but ultimately i think it remains going back to the title of the piece, china is not just embarked in a meaningful secular slowdown, i would argue, right, on top of what's been a really tough cyclical period with china facing tariffs from the u.s., from canada, from other countries as they try to export those evs but domestically they're transforming the economy as well so they have a negative headwind against the economy but also they really have a substitution moving into electric vehicles

away from internal combustion cars and more electric vehicle cars being sold in china. that's about 51% to 49% for the first time ever. on top of that you have trucks running on lng and moving away from diesel. lng, liquid natural gas, effectively frozen natural gas. august of those are eroding the margin of demand for oil and that's why we've changed our view. we just think there's too much oil in the market. there's a surplus and that's why prices are going to be a little lower but there is still downside risks. $75 a barrel may not be the end of it if poeopec increases production. >> francisco blanch of b and a. >> all geopolitical events have lost their ability to rally the price and the u.s. is

outproducing the entire world on barrels per day. it's very difficult for that oil price to spike. >> look, like anything, the question is on monday, right? does all these things that are over -- whether microsoft or oil have a bit of a bounce or cut right through? in principle, this is where you apply that rule, nothing to be lost by postponing all new buying. let the dust settle. we have a bearish view on oil. we're sticking with it. >> the commodity as well as equities? >> not so much the equities and think that is a contrarian plan. >> it's outperforming in a big, big way, some is weaker dollar. some is the fact as we say these energy companies are run differently. i agree that the supply stuff from the western hemisphere players is something -- and, you know, politics aside on this, russia, ukraine, settlement of some kind, a negotiated deal, you know, as we get into next year will be a big test for oil prices. >> coming up, a surprise

outperformer is barreling its earnings. shares of this name up more than 10%. we'll tell you what it is and whether the gains are here to stay. that's next. plus, are you ready for some streaming wars? insi tdehe battle for nfl s streaming. ahead of the first packed season. more "fast money" in two. ♪ (girl) wooo! ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." oracle will report after the bell monday. outperforming its software and broader tech peers over the past month up more than 10%. carter, would you be a buyer of this one? >> i am a buyer of this one. so, let's get right to it. i think we have four identical charts. here's the first, again, i like to start out with nothing on it and go to the second and put something on it and what we know is we're sort of working into a moment of decision. it's often earnings that resolve that kind of standoff. next iteration, what's really important here is that the stock broke out in a big way on its june quarterly beat and checked back to the penny, held support and bounced nicely. final four, what you see, whether you call it a cup and handle, doesn't matter what you call it. a good setup. relative performance and gapping

is upside. last two quarters plus 10% each in response earnings. my thinking, you stick with it if you have it. if you don't have it, get some. >> what do you think? >> tough one and carter and i talked about it earlier in the week. it is a bit of a value trap. a lot of hope based on the cloud business that has been growing off a low base here and i think everything we talked about on the other names and talked about the underperformance of enterprise software names for the better part of this year. the technicals might be one thing. i don't think it's that interesting from a fundamental basis in they are defensive in that they are more exposed to health care through their acquisition of cerner. >> analyst day, big event for them. they may guide down on margins but kind of like -- i'm agreeing with carter's call, which is, i think, you know, i think the confidence in the name continues to go higher and i think actually the multiple is defendable. >> oracle cloud infrastructure.

oci up 49% year over year, so they like to compare it to aws. it doesn't have that exponential growth that aws had, but it's got enough growth to probably keep the stock moving higher, i would guess. >> coming up, football is back, so we are checking in on the streamers as the nfl makes its push onto new platforms. where you can catch this season's hottest matchups and how new ai tools are getting in on the game next. more "fast money" in two. your people are buried in busy work. and you might be thinking... can ai make it all work? can ai help your people work... without all the workarounds? feel better. make customer service work the way customers expect? that one. make your old tech work with your new tech? thank you. and todd here is wondering, can ai do all that... now? no pressure. it can. on the servicenow platform, ai transforms your entire business.

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welcome back to "fast money." nfl fans may have more options than ever for watching their favorite team this year as many games will be live on different streaming platforms including tonight's matchup between the eagles and packers in brazil available only on peacock which is, of course, owned by cnbc's parent company comcast. how will football lovers and streaming services benefit from the new experience? julia is back with all the details. hey, julia. >> well, melissa, the nfl is simply following fans where they are onto these new platforms and this season the league will be streaming on a range of apps and those apps are deploying new technology to draw fans and keep them engaged. peacock's exclusive game and peacock simulcast of regular

games this season comes after last year's exclusive wild card game was the most streamed event ever. then starting next week amazon with its third season of thursday night games is expanding the use of ai-powered tools to predict pivotal moments. it has a tool called defensive alerts which tracks the movement of defensive players. this as netflix is readying to air its first ever nfl games on christmas day building on the popularity of its documentaries on nfl players and cheerleaders. now, the question is now with all these different places to watch nfl games is whether ratings continue to rise after growing 7% last season. now, last year, 94 of the top 100 shows were nfl games but ratings do tend to dip in election years and ratings will face some tougher comps with last year when abc's simulcast espn games on abc due to a shortage of new scripted shows for abc because of those hollywood strikes.

so we'll be watching ratings and the question is always, like, is it better to have more access via streaming or is it harder to figure out where the games are? maybe people are getting used to navigating all this. >> yes, julia, thank you. julia boorstin. i mean it's hard to keep track where shows are let alone different games. >> i'd probably sound like my dad or the guy that should be in the progressive insurance commercial but i 100% like if a game is not on like a tv, network tv or cable tv, i'm like, i guess it's not on tonight. so back to the stocks, i think netflix is the one that wins here. the fact that they're getting -- they have two games on christmas day, the fact we've been waiting for netflix to get into live events and now they've been making their move here, i think it's another reason why this multiple can go higher. it's not the reason, it is a reason. >> too many choices to the opening of this. there's eight different -- maybe ten different areas where you can look for a game. when we were growing up it was 2, 4, 5, 7 basically.

netflix, though, on a chart looks to me like it's rolling over finally but we've said this, i've said this a number of times, tim has been long, he's been right to stay long. every time i look at the chart, i think this is the time where they fade. this is the time it looks like to me that the chart is actually going to roll over. >> it does seem that way when you put a game or any game on a streaming platform you have to want to watch. you won't stumble upon it. you are googling where can i watch? >> after the google so here's the thing, if netflix has 80 million subscribers in the u.s., like you're going to find the netflix crowd. that's the one thing, i think it's these other ones that have yet to get that uptake in, you know, again, they'll all be rebundled. that's just a fact because as a stand-alone business they're really difficult. >> well, you don't like the chart. rolling a little bit. you do like the stock. not that i need to be a tiebreaker. i like the chart. i think it's okay. >> that's not like a -- >> well, you're going to go

home. >> jump on the weekend. it's fine. >> he's got this. >> it's okay. it's not -- >> carterisms. >> i love them. >> they're great. >> yeah. but in a world in which, you know, this is the next driver, do we want to see this? is this -- it's costly, these things are costly. that was always the argument about live sports. >> look at warner brothers and look at, you know, what it's meant for them in terms of the nba. so the dynamic here around what you're paying and we, you know, we started cnbc sport started to get into the dynamics and had a great conversation last night. the reality is that at some point the nfl is going to have a game on tv thursday night, friday night, saturday night, sunday night, monday night. >> that's too much for me. >> sorry that,s of a yawn. >> you don't consider yourself a football fan. if you're a fan, you're loving it. >> the world revolves around hockey and baseball and realize

i'm probably not the norm. up next, final trades. boom! at&t internet that's why i'm chief technology officer but all you did was plug it in, you didn't do anything neither did you exactly exactly exactly exactly impressed? honestly, a little exactly (slurp)

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time for the final trade. around the horn. tim. >> where you watching the game tonight. >> coast to coast. >> peacock. >> exactly. nexttera energy is what you want to watch. >> carter? >> it's tried and true. it's tested. stick with it. >> nathan. >> those utilities that tim likes, i mean they are steep and uncorrected. i think you'll probably pull back. >> oh, you're sure. very nice, of course. i wouldn't expect anything less.

i mean, call the trade stupid or dumb. >> come on. >> it's a 12% uncorrected move while the market is topping out. >> all right. steve. >> iot, samsara down off last earnings up off this earnings, no rhyme or reason. i'm long and staying long. >> what a my mission is simple. to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i am cramer. welcome to "mad money". i'm not here to make friends, i'm just trying to save you money. my job is not just to educate and teach you, but to put it in perspective so you don't just panic. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc.

what an