gamestop this morning? the shares are sharply lower it's wednesday, september 11th never forget 2024 "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everyone, and welcome to "squawk box" here on c nbc. we're live at the market site from times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen andrew ross sorkin will join us. the consumer price index for august is coming out economists are looking for prices to rise by 0.2% with the core of food and energy also rising by the same amount ahead of that we have red arrows

with the eck request i thees futures. s&p 500 down by 14 the nasdaq off by 15 points. it was another positive session for both the s&p 500 and the nasdaq yesterday the s&p 500 adding 100 once again it was helped by gains and nvidia shares. the ceo of nvidia is going to be speaking at the goldman sachs technology conference. we'll be watching that and high light the stock a little later this morning right now it's off by 0.4% the dow was the outlier yesterday. it finished the session in the red. that index looked at a sharp drop in jpmorgan chase that stock coming off of its worst single-day drop since june of 2020, kind of played out throughout the entire financial sector it kind of plays also on what we

had heard from goldman sachs earlier, and you'll see this morning it's down by 6.7%. >> that's today, down a dollar or two we don't explain -- $11. >> yesterday. >> $11 for jpmorgan is a very rare move, and on a percentage basis, i don't know how often you see that with the ultimate blue chip. >> it also played into concerns about a potential slowdown we know things are slowing down. the question is how radically. you take a look at treasury yields and then we'll look at the oil market that's where it played out yesterday as well along with jpmorgan and the financial stocks that has come down really significantly. we were sitting at 3.7%. the 2-year is sitting down you continue to see the yields drop as there are expectations the fed will cut rates to deal with the slowing economy

we'll see what happens when the fomc meets the energy markets paying close attention to hurricane francine. that's now bearing down on the oil-producing region of the gulf of mexico. oil prices are a little higher, but they did hit a multi-year low yesterday. you can see for the one year, down about 23% again, concerns not just about a slowdown in china, but what it's going to mean in the united states and globally. that was a big part of why things were so weak yesterday in the energy complex. >> the energy -- it's weird. we mentioned francine. if you look up hurricane season, head line after head line, the 2024 season was expected to be especially bad why is it so quiet >> it's still early in september. as somebody with a beach house, i'm still -- >> i know. but there's no denying that up to this point it's been really weird. >> i will say some of the water has been cold. >> it was not supposed to be that was supposed to be why it

was going to happen. there's supposed to be 25 named storm, 13 hurricanes and 7 major hurricane. so far one and -- >> i hope you're right. >> it's not me if you look at what the conjecture is. >> i've been on this for months because they've been saying this for months >> hurricane season surprisingly quiet. what happened? the 2024 hurricane season was expected to be especially bad. why is it so quiet it could happen at any minute. all you need is one and then all of a sudden we're back in climate change hell. former president donald trump and vice president kamala harris debated last night. eamon javers has more.

>> it was a raucous debate it was the first meeting between these two candidates, and right from the first handshake, kamala harris appeared to succeed in her mission of putting donald trump on the defensive by baiting him with some of the issues that are known to rattle him and get under his skin even as harris largely avoided answering questions about her own flip-flops on key issues, the debate began with the economy. for our audience, awe of the important stuff was right in the first third of the debate as both candidates said they were better for the economy trump said inflation has been a disaster under kamala harris here's what he said. >> we have had inflation like few people have ever seen before, probably the worst in our nation's history we were at 21%, but that's being generous because many things are 50%, 60%, 70%, 80% higher than they were a few years ago. this has been a disaster.

>> and for her her part, kamala harris citing goldman sachs, suggesting that her administration would be better for the economy. here's what she said >> the best economists in our country if not the world have reviewed our relative plans for the future of america. what goldman sachs has said is that donald trump's plan would make the economy worse, mine would strengthen the economy what the wharton school has said is donald trump's plan would actually explode the deficit. >> and, guys, on the way out of the debate, donald trump actually went to the spin room that's where aides an pundits typically go and talk to reporters and spin the results of the debate. donald trump went there to do some spinning of his own in person what trump said in the spin room there after the debate last night is he knows that harris wants another debate he's not so sure that he wants

another debate so there was an expectation of a second one of these, guys, now not so clear as both campaigns decide whether last night was good for them and whether they want to do it all over again good for them. >> are you burying the lede? tay-tay? >> oh, taylor swift endorsed kamala harris on instagram last night. that came late in the night. >> i know. it's not in the lede, but it's funny -- >> trump was asked about that in the spin room. he said, i had no idea what to make of it. >> he said it shows you the elitists and -- i don't know i watched half of it maybe i need to get my beauty rest i don't need to watch it all i need to do is read social media -- >> that's why i stayed up to watch the entire thing

i don't trust anyone it's such a subjective thing people will walk away and see different things. >> there's no doubt that the expectations were low. she baited him he didn't do himself any favors whatsoever in the grievance space and everything else. but i don't think the moderators served themselves well i know,know,, /* eamon. >> what about leaving tariffs on did you leave any tariffs on she started talking about -- i was raised in the middle class. >> you went to bed before things got really interesting i will say having watched the entire thing, he got worse and worse as things went on. he took the bait there were two issues in particular one where she said everybody leaves his rallies -- or leave

his rallies recall because they're boring and he came back and went after it. he was on the defensive because he was allowed to be put on the defensive. he called her a marxist. >> he can't help himself. >> her father is a marxist. >> he took the bait. >> i wasn't a big fan of a lot of the expressions right from the beginning. had frank luntz on. >> true. all of that is true, but if you look at the last debate, it was a situation where former president trump definitely won that debate because biden performed so badly because biden performed so badly. this was a situation where she didn't answer the questions a lot of times. >> fact-checking was -- as it always is, when mainstream media calls it fact-checking, it means looking for lies with donald

trump. they don't look for anything else let me say one thing they did point out, eamon, that i saw pointed out. in the past, except for what becky was talking about where you really had someone who had -- i mean, we know now that president biden was probably in the early stages of something, whatever you want to call it throw that debate out. they're not usuallily like that. they usually don't change the outcome. when debates didn't charge the outcome, that was before social media, i think, e amon i think this is where debates might be more important. >> i don't know about that i think social media may make them less important as they slice and dice this and make it look good for your base and make the other look like they lost. both sides are hardened in terms of their views what was fascinating was kamala

harris used a lot of donald trump's debating tricks against him. harris walks right across the stage, gets right into the stage, shakes his hand it was clear he didn't want to shake her hand, look at her. she seemed to have rattled him right from that moment here you can see she walks over to his side. he didn't want that handshake, she goes right for it. from that moment on, he was on the defensive. she called him a disgrace ore and over again that's a term donald trump uses over and over again on his enemies. that's his language. and she mocked his crowd size, which he usually uses as a marker of his own space. designed a the get under his skin and he was able to pivot

and focus on the things he was focused on. >> you immediately look at what's trending, not just for me, but trending overall you go down the list and you see you're going to see both sides it's look like the spin room on x. i immediately saw abc moderators i saw snopes you know why snopes is on there -- supposedly a left-wing fact-checker, fact-checked the charlottesville quote that he never did say that about nazis being good and fine people so that was not fact-checked that was by the moderators i immediately saw that so, you know, they put that out. you did you see the "post? this is pretty good. trump rattled. and then they get it into as harris and abc hosts gang up on

him during the debate. that's a "new york post." >> the other thing in social media that i would also say, you can spiral down the rabbit holes of things that are circulating on social media, on the right wing that are important to them, they're commenting on it minute to minute. you think they resonate with a larger audience than they do that led to trump bringing up this thing about eating pets it doesn't really exist in the minds of most americans. a lot of people look at that san say what are you ltalking about? >> there's a much tougher case about the haitians coming into spring field, ohio, 20,000 coming in. if you want to make the case, talk about the boy who got killed last year when a high

shan immigrant didn't have a driber ice license and hit a school bus and killed a boy. >> social media doesn't necessarily resonate with regular american voters, and i think trump allowed himself to be drawn down that spiral into those rabbit holes in a way you don't want to do when you're speaking to a big national audience. >> they named the simpson's hometown -- >> there's a lot of them >> yeah, exactly springfield, new jersey, next to where i live i don't know, eamon. i just wonder what it means a long way to go it's still basically tied or maybe kamala harris is now up a point -- or i mean -- i don't know wahl do you call it -- on the betting sites.

it's not a point all right, javers, thank you. >> whatever you're doing, when you're betting, you're losing. the house always wins. >> who bet on the jets. >> the house always wins gambling's for suckers >> why would the jets stay within a touchdown -- you've got to go. >> if i gamble, i would gamble for the eagles. >> that was a great win. that was a great win. when we come back -- >> no, "squawk box" will be right back oh, you're allowed to do it? >> jamie dimon says he wouldn't take flag nation off of the table. we'll have more as we count down to the cpi reports "squawk on the street" will be

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the worst outcome is stagflation. in my view, i wouldn't take it off the table. i know everyone thinks inflation is coming down and we've won that victory i'd caution that a little bit. if you look forward, there are a lot of inflationary forces huge deficit, the economy,

restructure of trade, they're all inflationary basically in the short run in the next couple of years so it's hard to look and say we're out of the woods i don't think so. >> that was jpmorgan chairman and ceo jamie dimon speaking to institutional investors at a conference yesterday we are a little more than two hours away from the i data being released we'll get another read on inflation at that point. joining us with more is ian, a chief economist. ian, what do you think to hear jamie dimon's concerns about that, that we have not completely beaten down this inflationary monster that we've been dealing with for a while, is he right? >> nope, he's not. it's gone. it's going all the things that pushed inflation up are fading away

the supply change, surge in rate growths, in rent, all of these things are fading away and continue to fade away. $67 a barrel is huge disinflation is coming to us from china, from the domestic economy, really from all fronts. no, i don't buy for the minute the idea that fiscal expansion is going to cause more inflation going forward. it certainly did going backward for sure you know the excess stimulus in 2021, 2022 did contribute to inflation. it boosted consumption way above trend and that allows resellers to raise margins substantially, but that's all in the past we're not there anymore. no, i'm not really worried about the future in fact, if you force me, i would say it would go next year below the two-year targets than staying above it. >> even with his point about spenting with the c.h.i.p.s. act, the green new deal, that

money just getting rolled out, and a situation where even democrats are saying, yeah, you need to spend more on military >> yeah. the c.h.i.p.s. act and these various other infrastructures are mostly at almost peak now. so the incremental spending isn't very big that's what matters. it's the change in policy, not the levels spending is very high. budgeting is very high it's going to stay that way for the foreseeable future it's the change that really matters. we don't have now a huge shift in fiscal policy looking forward. it's very small compared to the huge increase and deficits we saw in 2020 and 2021 these things are marginal when you set them against the big forces, in particular the labor market we had wage growth peaking in 2021, 2022 at 6% and now it's heading back down to 3%. when you look at the strong

productivity growth, it's close to zero. it's extremely difficult to get inflation above the target when you know they aren't rising at all. for most companies, labor is by far the biggest variable cost. looking at other ones, oil it was not so long ago people were talking about oil going over 100 and staying there, some horrific forecasts look at where we are now that hasn't begun to feed into the headlines or core infederation, but it will. >> what about the idea that the economy is slowing rapidly if you don't think inflation is an issue, did you think that this rapid slowdown reflected in the oil markets and other places is a big problem >> yes so i think jamie dimon is on firmer ground. we talked about the stagflation story. i'm not sure stagflation is in our near future. i'm not ruling it out. payroll has got somewhere left to run

in real time that's probably the best indicator we get. it's subject to big revisions. in the turning points, gdp continues to be printed high and revised down they seem to be revised less at the turning points, and that weakening trend we're seeing, some of the business surveys are telling us that apparel growth gets weaker. i am nervous about growth. i think we're in for a period of sluggish growth for the rest of the year that's why i want the fed to get a move on. that's why i was so disappointed when they pulled back p they're going to have to put those easings back into the forecast next week. >> what else are you watching, ia ian. >> i'm watchings china as always, which is really struggling mightily and has a sustained disinflation and does feed back to us. it feeds back into lower prices

for goods in a domestic economy. and the other thing i'm really looking at is how the domestic consumer behaves in an era of less free and abundant cash flow last year it rose by more than 4% after tacks, more like 1% it's very difficult to keep spending at anything like last year's pace. we're looking at it very closely. discretionary spending on services, travel, leisure, entertainment, recreation, all of those things, i think, look vulnerable, and i'm concerned about the market most need a loan to buy a car. loan conditions are still very high it's not a great outlook. >> thank you ian shepardson. coming up, an effort to salvage a $15 billion steel deal. gh> and later more on last

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nippon steel making a last-ditch effort to salvage a deal with u.s. steel the "financial times" is reporting that nippon's vice chair will meet with senior u.s. officials in washington today to -- in an attempt to save the nearly $15 billion deal. the ft says that that will include a sit-down with the treasury department's committee on foreign investment, which is argued that the deal would create national security risks the treasury department and

nippon steel boenlts declined to comment. >> still to come this morning we're going to find out what has game stop shares sliding. and warren buffett trimming one of his berkshire hathaway holdings yet again that's next. right now let's take a look at yesterday's s&p 500's winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next-level moments need the next-level network a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it!

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good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site from times square the future's not good. a lot of red ink, triple digits on the dow after the dow was actually lower yesterday because of an 11-point drubbing in the shares at jpmorgan treasury's acting like there's a bit of a slowdown or at least the notion that the labor market

could be slowing it's not the lowest levels we've seen in yield on the 10-year, but it's sort of getting down there. bitcoin rebounded from 53, back to 57. now it's down about 2% this morning. and gold, take a look at the shiny beautiful metal. it is a great thing to hold in your hand. it just is an amazing -- there's a reason why. >> it's pretty. >> it's beautiful. it's like gollum with the ring. >> precious. >> it's precious. francine b bearseen /* sooen . francine bearing down on the

gulf of mexico crude down lower since 2021. war when buffett has unloaded some of his shares. he sold more than $2 million in recent days. that pushes it to $2.7 billion since july bank of america is his third largest holding. it now comes in behind american express. that's number 2. apple still leading the pack in terms of berkshire's holdings. barrack of america's ceo brian moynihan has praised buffett on his reduction. they have to report their sales every three days as long as they own more than 10%. the seams did look like they slowed down a little bit it's not at the recent pace they've been doing it's still at 11%. >> i cityish with i knew everything behind it. >> the reason? >> yeah. is it macro?

bank of america rea littled? the more cash buffet raises, the more it makes me think he isn't quite as excited about near-term prospects of the stockmarket. >> he kind of plays into what jamie dimon says too. >> suddenly jamie dimon says it after he sold all of his bank of america. it kind of makes sense. check out the shares of gamestop, if you will. this morning they reported a surprise profit, despite a fourth consecutive quarter of falling sales, declining 30% the stock appeared to slide after the company amended an open market sales agreement -- sale agreement filed with the s.e.c., allowing it to sell up to 20 million additional shares of its class a common stock. coming up, more to last night's debate on the economy and inflation, the border security and war on abukraine, d a reminder you can get the best

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i took in billions and b billions of-dollars from china they're taking in billions of dollars from china and other places they left the tariffs on. i had tariffs, and yet i had no inflation. >> it's important that we move forward, that we turn the page on this same old tired rhetoric and address the needs of the american people, address what we need to do about the housing shortage, which i have a plan for, address what we must do to support our small businesses, address bringing down the price of groceries >> and those are some of the

moments from last night's debate and joining us now is the head of u.s. policy and politics at wolfe research i read a lot of conjecture this morning, the journal's editorial board, everybody weighing in on what they actually witnessed how would you -- summarize it for your me, tobin i'm not going to put words in your mouth summarize if you had to do it -- let's say you were an ai program and someone said what happened at the debate last night, what would ai spit out, if it was not biased ai, which i see wherever. let's say it was normal. >> sure. i think you have to say that harris won i think she did a much more effective job of drawing contrast against trump than she answered questions about her own agenda strong performance for her drew the distinctions that she wanted to draw, but i think a lot of questions are still outstanding for swing voters about exactly what's going on

with her aggressive pivot to the center and the extent to which she can be relied upon trump is trump as he usually is. i think he took the bait a lot he missed at going at harris he missed a lot of layups on things that he clearly intended to hit her on coming into the debate, but did not. >> that would be the criticism it gets tiresome to blame the messenger and to blame the moderators, but then again, i just think there's no doubt that they did not press -- did they have no interest in trying to find out about what you just mentioned, the switch from some of those positions back to where they were? they didn't make her answer those questions. and then, the bad thing is trump didn't do it either. he had plenty of opportunities i just asked you about why you left the tariffs on, and you

start talking about -- i can't remember what you came up with, but it was a total -- there were so many total non sequiturs. david muir sat there. >> she did press him on things. >> she did but the moderators had no interest in doing that, tobin. >> that's the thing about complaining about the refs the candidates have a lot of agency it was up to him to prosecute that case. i mean there were lots of failures that went on. the biden performance in the first debate but among others, he did not go after trump, the things he wanted to hold him accountable for. they both dodged a whole lot of questions both during the debate and in the spin room afterward the reporters tried to get trump to answer whether he would veto a national abortion plan if it hit his desk

there are still questions. even if you can manage to get off the debate stage without being held accountable, that's still a weak spot. you can say, look, i did prefer her to trump i have ultimate concerns about trump, but still what is she going to do, what does she stand for, and where do the pivots come from? remember, she's probably not going to have unified democratic control. her plans are all well and good. her housing plan has some merit to it. whatever happens next year is whatever she can get through congress or by authority, which is not a lot she's proposing. >> it doesn't, but there's still a lot you can do for example, if i had been the moderators -- that erin burnett interview. i know you saw it. it got a lot of play from the night before she was just shocked at some of the policy positions that were

part and parcel to where kamala harris was running in 2019 now, maybe she was trying to get to the left of bernie sanders. but i would have thought that would have been incumbent upon muir and lindsey -- i don't really watch abc but i would have thought that would have been something -- the thing that bothers me, tobin, i looked at some of the commentary from mainstream glowing reviews. they're all in this echo chamber. all their peers in the mainstream media business are saying what an incredible job you did covering all these different topics. >> there's a different school of thought. i generally think what you want to do is let voters hear from the candidates i think in that respect, the

moderation was -- accomplished what it set out to because we heard a lot from both of them. they were presented with a clear choice ultimately it was up to the two candidates to dodge away it was up to trump to figure out what angle he wanted to go after her on. >> right that's my concern, at 78 -- maybe a younger trump might have said, i know it's three against one, but i'm going to take care of my own business here, and this is what you're failing to do instead of the grievance stuff and revisiting old things and get off my yard, that type of stuff. all right, tobin they you. >> thanks, joe. >> okay. when we come back, pollster and political strategist frank luntsz will break down last night's debate, coming up at 7:15 eastern time. we're counting down to the

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coming up, the word from nvidia, the chipmaker's ceo jensen juang getting ready to speak later this morning and what do investors need to hear with the stock well now off its all time highs that's next. as we head to break, a live look at the 9/11 memorial, september 11th in new york city. today marks 23 years now since the terrorist attacks that

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nvidia's ceo jensen huang speaking at the goldman sachs

comunicopia conference this morning. what do investors and markets want to hear from the leader of the chipsmaker it is good to see you, ben i figure -- you'd have to say a stock -- you could call it a bear market, i guess, though the bull market was like nothing -- the likes of which we have never seen, but it was an amazing bull run. it is down about 23%, though is it in a bear market or is this time to catch a -- is it a falling knife? >> i don't think it is a falling knife, joe it is good to be with you on such an important day in our history in new york, especially. i think that nvidia right now, you know, last year, actually, if you remember, it took a break in the back half of the year this is more severe. i think there is macro worries and what not but the big thing about nvidia

is they're in a product transition and the rest of semis also is absorbing the potential recessionary risks and some other things going on. so i think that in terms of nvidia, one of the big surprises over the last call was taking gross margins down in the near term and semi stocks that hit that usually with a gross margin bump tend to, you know, not perform anymore for a little while until they get that going again. but i think they'll come out on the other side of that, within a few quarters and i think that will be a big topic when he speaks later today, if folks are able to ask questions. >> we watched nvidia sort of ignore everything, not related to a.i i mean, the fed, global, growth concerns, what was happening in other semiconductors are you saying now it might actually be paying attention to the possibility of a global

slowdown, growth i watch oil and look at the ten-year, we're going to see inflation numbers today, but there are some macro things going on that might be reaching a more climactic point than before with nvidia is it subject to that, or no >> well, i think that they have a lot of things going on that are immune i think the semis in general are having potentially another macro scare here in the back half of the year nvidia caught up in that in terms of a.i. in general, there is a lot of tailwinds, secular tailwinds that over the long-term we're going to be doing really well. i feel like they're insulated a bit from some of the macro swings like in pcs, some of the commodity servers, potentially, and some other areas so i think they're doing really well one of the issues is they're sucking a lot of the air out of the room and folks need to allocate their spending toward a.i., which is potentially impacting other sectors. that's been bigger potentially

in the first half. i think that's going to be a big narrative again next year. so, look, i wish the macro was -- data was better, but i feel nvidia is pretty well insulated. but i do feel like it is gobbling a lot of mind share within the sector in general with the sell-off. >> we hear margins that nvidia and we just go, oh, yeah, that's pretty good, you know, whatever they happen to be. and accompany that size, it just can't last where the margins stay where they are. so, what would be -- what would be considered okay margins or falling -- they're spending even more money, you know, trying to make the next generation chips than we thought. and this is actually troubling that margins are going to drop to this -- they're still going to be so rich even after a pretty big drop. >> yeah, well, the thing is, nvidia is putting together tens of thousands of little parts of this these chips and it is very

complex. they deserve to have a very high asp with the complexity of the product. and the other thing is they, over time, are going to have more software and services which are very high margins. so, what some other companies, maybe apple and others get into this area where their business becomes -- it is an ecosystem, and they can tap into other elements of that so i think that right now we have this blackwell production issue, temporary, it hits gross margin and then i do think they grow other things such as software and cloud and other things that allow the margins to stay relatively high, but, yes, 78% gross margin was rarified air. it was bound not to stay there they had said take it down to 75 over time for, you know, the intermediate term, and it is just going to be a little lower than that in the next couple of quarters and it can go back there with positive mix and better production. but you got to watch that.

it is a great point. part of the reason, you know, is, like, the revenue acceleration is just so amazing. they really can't keep up on an opex side. and their margins are in rarified air and it is better than elite software companies right now. you have to watch it carefully i feel like actually it will get hit a little near term and the power out. >> yeah. it's a margin that is so high, you worry about politically that someone is going to notice it and, you know, have a knee jerk reaction to margins that high that are completely deserved when someone is so ahead of the rest of the industry and that's where margins are and if you can -- investors deserve it, they put their money on the line and it is deserved you can teach econ 101 using nvidia, i think.

ben, thank you go ahead final word. >> tough to get penalized for winning and thinking ahead and -- >> they'll try they'll try. all right, ben, thank you. >> joe, great to see you, by the way. >> good to see you thanks. it is just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. it is 4:00 a.m. on the west coast where i am you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. good morning to both of you. we got so much going on post debate, of course among today's top stories, the markets waiting on the first of two key inflation reports, the consumer price index for august is going to be released, that's happening at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. economists predicting prices that will rise by 2%, or should i say by .2%, before excluding food and energy, also rising by the same amount. oil prices climbing this morning with brent and wti crude, both

up more than 2%. concerns, though, about supply disruptions in the gulf of mexico from hurricane francine, offsetting worries about weak global demand, and, yes, the big story of the morning, reaction to the debate between former president trump and vice president harris, the candidates sparring on the economy. >> what goldman sachs has said is that donald trump's plan would make the economy worse, mine would strengthen the economy. what the wharton school has said is donald trump's plan would actually explode the deficit, 16 nobel laureates have described his economic plan as something that would increase inflation and by the middle of next year would invite a recession you just have to look at where we are and where we stand on the issues >> i went to the wharton school of finance, and many of those professors, the top professors think my plan is a brilliant plan it is a great plan it is a plan that is going to bring up our worth, our value as

a country, it is going to make people want to be able to go and work and create jobs and create a lot of good, solid, money for our country, and just to finish off, she doesn't have a plan she copied biden's plan and it is, like, four sentences, like, run, spot, run, four sentences that are just, oh, we'll try and lower taxes. >> joining us right now is political strategist and pollster frank luntz frank, want to get your reaction to what you saw last night i followed you on twitter. and you said after this debate, the harris campaign will have little reason to do another one. what did you mean? >> well, the fact is it appears that harris actually gave more details last night than trump. it appears as though she was more presidential than donald

trump, even though she's never been president and it appears that donald trump is going to double down on his claim that people are eating their dogs and cats and i can't believe i'm saying that on cnbc. and i know that the people want me, in your control room, want me to speak about the economy, but last night's debate, and i remember how i felt in 2020 watching donald trump, time after time after time after time light into joe biden, alienating the people he was trying to win. the level of detail in last night's debate from harris and from trump on their economic policies was so slim that the public was left wanting and as i'm following it, i'm being texted and emailed by people who watch your program, and how disappointed they were in both candidates for not being

explicit, and both candidates for not being articulate about exactly what they would do, particularly with inflation, particularly with economic concerns, but that trump missed a golden opportunity to speak up and speak out about why we're in the situation we are now, and that frankly he lost the debate last night not that she won, but that he lost >> and let's talk about that then what do you think the distinction is, not that he lost, but that she won, or not that she won, but he lost, what do you mean by that? >> that there was person after person who were on the shows after the debate, delivering talking points, being typically partisan, and saying that whoever they supported won the debate, but the fact is his talking about, and i still can't believe i'm saying this on cnbc, at 7:00 a.m., the idea that

anyone in america, they're eating their pets, and he will never acknowledge and he did not last night, the moderators gave him a chance repeatedly to acknowledge that he made a mistake, that he cannot do that, well, let me tell you, andrew, the undecided voters are not voting over policy, they're voting over personality. and the idea that someone can be president for four years and not make a mistake and not acknowledge with humility that you don't get everything right is going to cost him this election on the issues, andrew, trump had the advantage, inflation, immigration, things that matter most but instead he prosecuted harris with the same kind of anger and the contempt that he showed toward joe biden it absolutely feeds his base it will absolutely be cheered on by 42, 43% of america. but the goal in any debate is to win that undecided and he most

certainly failed to do that last night. >> we saw elon musk tweet out that he thought that the vice president exceeded expectations. do you think that there is a sense among undecideds and, by the way, not just undecideds, anybody on the trump side that switched after seeing this no >> i don't believe trump lost a single vote last night but that segment, that 5% in the key swing states, he gave them no reason to vote for him on economic issues, which is their number one priority. he went back and again and again and again to immigration, but he did that ineffectively you can't just beat up on your opponent you have to have solutions and trump did, as president. but the fact is last night was a very poor debate performance for someone whose campaign has done quite well in articulating the difference between himself and vice president harris. the trump campaign is succeeding

in drawing a distinction, in drawing a clear difference, but the candidate himself failed last night and, in fact, if he doesn't apologize and back track on the eating of pets, again, i apologize to your viewers for saying this, but he doesn't do it, the press is going to eat him alive over the next 48 hours. >> frank, speak to the taylor swift of it all and what you think that endorsement means or does not >> it is important for younger voters it actually does mean something. we polled on this. if i had known you were going to ask this question, i would have given your viewers a chance to see it a third of americans think trump is more credible, a third of americans think biden is more credible, but one quarter of americans actually are listening to what she says and it is primarily younger voters, primarily female voters, but they matter in this campaign and actually, as we wake up this morning we should not just be

talking about the impact on the presidential race. but taylor swift will help bring out younger voters and make no mistake, they will not be voting republican down ticket andrew, this is the first time i said this on cnbc, but this morning, republican house candidates and senate candidates have to be considering where they stand because if you turn out younger voters, who prefer the democrats over the republicans, and particularly younger women, by 25%, you could have a earthquake in the congressional races that provides democrats with what they have been seeking all along, a trifecta, senate, house, and presidency. >> final question for you, frank. just about the moderators, because there has been this critique among some mostly trump supporters but i seem to -- it seemed -- your tweets last night seemed to suggest you thought they did a good job on a lot of people looked to you as a republican

pollster for a very long time. >> yes, but i've been very straight on this program, and on other programs the moderators have been under attack for fact checking trump d not harris and all you have to do is put all of those challenges back who did they challenge the argument on the harris side is that she didn't say anything wrong. but the fact is viewers looked at this and they thought that it wasn't necessarily fair, and this could be the way that trump survives just as he was indicted and convicted, every time those indictments came down over the last 18 months, trump's numbers went up because he looked like a victim to voters but i will also tell you that i'm being texted and emailed right now by billionaires who love your program, who are saying that last night simply wasn't fair. they acknowledge that trump did horribly but they also are complaining about how he was held to a different standard than kamala harris and that could make a difference

in the long-term and how people perceive this. frankly, if i'm the harris campaign, i'm not doing another debate, there is no reason to. >> frank luntz, always great to get your perspective, especially on a morning like today. thank you. >> can we say this, andrew, there is still definitely going to be a lot of bad blood between these two and they are never, ever, ever getting back together if trump doesn't shake it off, it is going to be that we find out that we knew what was going on all too well. do you know any of those songs any recognition at all with that >> i noticed a couple of the lines, not all of them, but i think -- >> say things like we're never, ever, ever, getting back together bad blood. cool summer?

yeah, that -- >> it is a factor. >> it is >> you have to bring it up. >> that's what i said. we buried the lead i guess we should have started with that. >> andrew, good it see you, by the way. thank you for getting up so incredibly early on the west coast. we're going to have a lot more when we come back on "squawk box. new hampshire governor chris sununu will join us with his takeaway from last night's presidential debate. and we're counting down to the august cpi report. the numbers and the market reaction at 8:30 a.m. eastern time "squawk box" will be right back.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

a clever line. >> checking the futures, down 150 points, people think i know a lot of taylor swift -- google.

there is a google. i have a google. >> she does have a lot of songs. >> it is insane. after the beatles, i don't know anybody who has written 200 songs where 50 of them are to her fans are, you know, huge let's get to, like dom chu constantly humming a taylor swift song what is your favorite, dom and then tell us about the big movers today i like "love story," i do like that song. >> that's good that's catchy. i'm a "shake it off" kind of guy. >> are you i don't like that one. i like "red," i like that song i like "red" a lot >> there is a reason why her concerts last three hours. a lot of songs to go through joe, becky, andrew, we'll check on morning movers with some of the big names in banks first off, they are mostly down premarket after falling yesterday as executives delivered more dour kind of news or forecasts and investor

conference over by barclays. jpmorgan is off by one half of 1% citigroup, morgan stanley, wells fargo, all those on the downside allied financial is up half a percent. if you look at some of the names, allfollowing yesterday' big drops, shares of allied, by the way, are sliding just kind of with that particular news as well the outlier again being that, because it fell 17% yesterday after its cfo said its borrowers are struggling with higher cos s and getting a bounce back after a big outsized loss. now we got shares of game stop, down after the video game retailer reported a surprise profit for the fourth consecutive quarter of falling sales though that's the juxtaposition the stock started to slide after the company amended an open market sale agreement filed with the s.e.c. allowing it to sell up to 20 million additional shares of its class a common stock. game stop off 10% on that mix of

news and we'll end with walmart, it is roughly flat, though, just down .1% after analysts reiterated as the top pick they believe the top line momentum and market share will continue to grow keep an eye on walmart for more and that an other top analyst calls of the day, head over to cnbc.com/pro, subscribers get the full access and detail of all of those big calls. andrew, i will send things back out to you in southern california, and maybe a question about what your favorite taylor swift is >> that's a good question. you know, i've been listening a lot to the new album actually, give me the commercial break to come back to you with actually a good answer there. >> you got it. thank you for that still to come, new hampshire governor chris sununu will join us to talk about his favorite taylor swift song. we're going to talk about last night's debate and both candidates' economic pitches to

americans. next hour, kevin mccarthy will also be joining us with his reaction "squawk box" coming back with all that and so much more in just a moment. >> announcer: for today's aflac trivia question. what year was the first televised presidential debate? the answer when "squawk box" returns. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪)

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what year was the first televised presidential debate? the answer, 1960, between john f. kennedy and richard nixon all right, welcome back, everybody. that's right, 1960, that first debate right now we want to take a look at last night's presidential debate and the latest in the 2024 presidential race for that, we welcome new hampshire governor chris sununu. and governor, thank you for being here this morning. >> you bet >> we talked about a lot of stuff, frank luntz was going on and on about eatingdogs. eating cats. to me, the thing that really stuck out the most, though, and probably where former president trump did himself the most damage would be when he doubled, tripled and quadrupled down on the idea that he did not lose the 2020 election.

>> yes, and he took the bait there is no doubt about it as someone who is voting for trump and supporting trump, it was frustrating that prosecutorial style got under his skin and i think his team was very adamant, just keep looking at the camera, don't make it personal, i think he was trying his best to show some discipline there so when she did get under his skin, it was amplified and she tripled down on it without a doubt and she took advantage, i think she knew he was going to come in trying to be disciplined, so she could be aggressive the question is what does this all mean that's the big thing i think it is going to mean something. i think of the 10% swing voters that are out there, i think 80% of them care about results are you going to make my life cheaper, can you bring my rent down, and for those folks, they did not -- they're not going to move because i don't think -- i think it is obvious to them that the vice president didn't answer those questions and really avoided it 20% on style are going to potentially be moved you'll see 1%, 1.5%, 2% swing at most

but there is still 50 days to go that's a lot of time in politics there is going to be a lot more action how this all sets up to the second debate if there is one i think -- >> that's the big question frank luntz said kamala harris should not accept a second debate you think there will be one? >> they have effectively last night said, we'll do a second debate, absolutely let's go so they were saying that last night, i think it would be a little bit difficult to back track or they'll have to talk themselves out of it i think the american people will want it, right and the other piece of this is it is an hour and a half who really watched the full hour and a half. >> i did >> right, we're in it. but the average american had to go to bed and make sure -- they got what they needed out of the first 20, 30 minutes what they're watching is today's response and i think overwhelmingly the response is, she beat him >> here is the thing, the frustrating thing for me, watching this and watching a lot of things closely, i don't feel like i learned a lot about either candidate last night. and maybe that's not the purpose of debates anymore i think that was the original

purpose of debates i think each came in with a different mission than that, and as you said, it is only 50 some days left to go for this early ballots have already gone out. voting -- early voting started to take place. >> i don't think there is much more to learn about trump. trump is trump he can be bombastic, throw things out if anything you learn he does have the ability to try to stay disciplined in the moment. >> he had a chance to drill down on everything we don't know about kamala harris and her previous positions, her current positions. i mentioned the moderators to you and you say, well, it was abc, nobody expected anything and people pretty much knew that and assumed and looking at the way it was conducted, that was going to be the way it was it would have been nice if someone had drilled down and it should have been him. it should have been him. >> he missed that opportunity to go back and say, wait, i'll give her more time because she just completely ignored your question and that happened four, five, six times. >> i only saw the first 25

minutes and it happened three or four times i was, like, that was a total nonanswer of the -- >> i think she was very smart. she gave her nonanswer and at the end, the last 20 seconds of every answer was a shot at him knowing that that would get -- and that's what he focused and responded on she took advantage of that psychological aspect of how he approaches the stuff i think he probably woke up this morning and i think he's upset i think the president trump is very angry right now and he's probably blaming his team, because he's not going to say, gee, i should have done better, he'll blame his team if that second debate does come in, it will be interesting to see how he approaches it stylistically. if he can just stay on the issues -- he has the answers >> trump called in to fox and friends this morning after the debate and he said i would be less inclined to have a second debate because we had a great night. >> well, he did not have a great night. that's very interesting. he's going to say that on fox, i assume, and my sense is he's going to push that publicly.

but he knows that -- as a candidate, you know. trust me >> the other thing he said was not only does he not want to have a debate, he apparently insulting brett bear and martha mccallum of fox saying he wouldn't want them to moderate the debate, doubling down saying he wants sean hannity or laura ingraham or jesse watters. we were talking about taylor swift before, what do you think the taylor swift effect may or may not be and i thought it was interesting she actually came out publicly and did this now. i thought she was going do this, she was going do it later on, closer to the election, but in fact i think to becky's point earlier about early mail-in ballots and she made a point of this in her post last night, which was to say, go and register and by the way, go and vote early, that by doing this now, you might actually have a meaningful effect and it puts her in a position and we don't know whether you'll actually see her out on the campaign trail

itself or making other comments or statements throughout the rest of this campaign. >> yeah, i'll tell you, i think celebrity endorsements mean absolutely nothing on either side really, they don't bring anything -- they never have. that's why everyone kind of marginalizes hollywood and all that i don't think anyone is surprised taylor swift endorsing her is like liz cheney endorsing her. it is not a complete shock the swing voters want results. they want to know who is going to make their life better and who is the change agent. that's what neither of them were able to sell and focus on. who is the agent of change to bring a culture change to d.c., again, appreciate -- >> can i you a different question since we're on "squawk. >> you can ask anything you want. >> no, it is a business-related endorsement question, which is so if a celebrity endorsement doesn't matter, does an endorsement of an elon musk or a switch from like a bill ackman who was a democrat for a very long time and has been very

public online, campaigning effectively for former president trump, are those endorsement meaningful how do you think about the context of name brands, whatever they are, endorsing different people. >> i think there is very few name brands that actually matter with both these entities, because these entities are known. they really are. you know what the harris biden administration is all about. you know what trump is all about. the most valuable endorsement as a candidate, even at the presidential level is the endorsement of your neighbor, endorsement of local officials, the endorsement of a local business owner that says, i really looked at this and this is going to change can i go back to one business aspect that i think trump completely missed? where were the price controls? that's a huge issue, that crushes competition, that's a very marxist thing and he never tied that into -- >> he was too busy with -- >> he called her a marxist and -- >> and the other grievance stuff, whether 2020 election or

the grievance stuff, instead of going back to her. it is, like, it would have been so easy, price controls, you know, raising corporate taxes. >> now, going back to what becky said, if he's really thinking i don't want to put myself through that again, i'll claim i won, i'll avoid it and let the next 50 days settle down, this whole honeymoon period of this august honeymoon that the vice president had, keep letting that settle down more and more. let those rent bills come due, let the credit card bills come due, let the electricity bills come into the american families -- >> doesn't it look like he's afraid though if he doesn't go back and do it again >> he'll talk himself out of it potentially. i would love to see it i would. i think it would be interesting. and both sides may quietly pull away. >> we have seen big switches i will never forget how poorly president obama did in the first debate and romney looked so presidential by the time the third debate, it is, like -- >> you had forgotten it all.

>> and romney was awful and obama looked like the greatest president in -- it was very weird. >> we had the dog and cats moment last night. romney had his -- the big error, the binder full of women comment and all that it takes one or two off comments where people -- >> memes on social media. >> especially nowadays >> we have to go, but did i see you saving a guy who at the lobster eating contest by giving the heimlich maneuver? >> apparently my heimlich maneuver skills are still there. >> the guy went back to eating in the contest. >> ate another seven lobsters after we saved him unbelievable. >> i've done that with alcohol no, like, in college, like -- you know, back -- >> i'm good for a few more cocktails now. >> governor, thank you >> i never actually have done that i've seen people do it

>> thank you, governor sununu. coming up, we're going to talk markets and today's big cpi report with hightower's stephanie link and former hillary clinton campaign manager will be here to scthe harris economic agenda and her takeaways from the debate we're hearing from all sides this morning we'll be back after this the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

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let's get a check on the futures ahead of today's cpi report we have seen some red arrows this morning not the lows of the session at this point, but the dow futures off by 120 points. nasdaq down by 50. s&p off by 11. we'll be speaking with stephanie link about the latest market moves and what she is expecting when those numbers are released. right now, though, as we head to a break, let's look at this morning's premarket winners and losers in the s&p 500. "squawk x"ilbeig bk.bo wl rhtac ordinary problems are for ordinary companies.

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let's talk markets and cpi joining us now, stephanie link, hightower chief investment officer and also a cnbc contributor. and, stephanie, that old expression, it is quiet, too quiet, that's kind of where we have been in terms of inflation numbers recently, the risk has been -- the concern has shifted

to maybe worries about growth in the labor market is there any way we could have inflation fears rekindle, that's not on anyone's radar. probably not >> i don't think so, joe we made a lot of progress. maybe we just kind of stay where we are we peaked at 9.1% in inflation and you're now running at 2.5% maybe we just stay at 2.5% that would be fine, i think. we're really close to where the fed wants it to be more importantly it is going to be tomorrow when you have the initial jobless claims we know that they have pivoted away from kind of the fear and the focus on inflation, more on labor. and that number probably comes in at about 229,000 for the weekly initial claims. if you look at the four-week moving average, joe, you're at 240,000 in initial jobless claims recession is more like 350 to 375. we're nowhere near that. but stepping back for a minute,

september, we know, is usually an uneven month and this year is no different there are a lot of uncertainties. you do have some concerns about growth slowing growth is slowing. but i don't think you're going into a recession, you're running at about 2% gdp. you have the tech unwind, the elections and, by the way, yesterday, was fascinating with the banks. if you look at some of the banks yesterday at a conference, we're talking about really disappointing trends ally with credit challenges. goldman with trading being down 10%. jpmorgan being their typical conservative saying nii and expenses are too high for next year and then you flip it around, and you then had brian moynihan talking at bank of america, talking about reiterating net ii and increasing for the fourth quarter in terms of nii and talking about no issues with the consumer, no growth slowdown, morgan stanley is talking about an m&a pipeline that is accelerating you talk about cross currents. you have haves and have notes in

the banks as well. a lot of unknowns, a lot of things to pick and choose from, but i think there is opportunity. >> you do? okay there is always opportunity when there is some, you know, when things pull back from, you know, really incredible levels, like nvidia is down 23% maybe that's an opportunity. or maybe it is another warning sign about things. when buffett has so much cash, that concerns me when jpmorgan goes down $11 in one day, when oil can barely get out of its way at $67 a barrel, when you have a bad week like we had last week and it is the month of september, with october as it usually does following september, i can give you a lot of things that i could lose sleep over thinking that maybe we're getting set up for some type of october low again, based on growth concerns >> well, we could, joe but the market always climbs a wall of worry and you and i

talked about it. i worry when i don't worry that means we're being complacent so, you have to pick and choose, i think now more than ever you are seeing opportunities and stock picking, you're getting rewarded for it. you talked about nvidia being down so much yeah, but guess what, it was up 151% into the earnings print it is so over owned at this point and maybe it justifiably so but it is over owned and maybe that needs to work itself through. jpmorgan, up 21%, it is absolutely beating every other bank this year, year to date and it is also over owned. it is like the safe way to play financials so, you have to look for maybe you want to look for these names in particular for a pullback to buy, but i think you find these other companies that are saying some pretty good things. and that's like bank of america, that's like truist, that's like broadcom i think there is opportunities out there. >> okay, steph playing us out

thank you. we'll know more in a little while. everything happens so that we don't have to wait forever that's a good thing. steph, thanks. when we come back, a lot more right here on "squawk box" after that contentious debate last night vice president harris and former president trump both claiming victory, sparring on the economy and immigration and so much more we're going to get reaction xtne from former hillary clinton campaign manager patty solil-doyle. that and so much more. "squawk box" rolls on this morning.

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we have inflation like very few people have ever seen before probably the worst in our nation's history we were at 21% but that's being generous because many things are 50, 60, 70, 80% higher than they were just a few years ago. this has been a disaster for people >> what goldman sachs has said is that donald trump's plan would make the economy worse, mine would strengthen the economy. what the wharton school has said

is donald trump's plan would actually explode the deficit >> donald trump said it was his best debate performance yet. kamala harris' team said she commanded the stage on every single issue from the moment she came out joining us right now to talk about last night's presidential debate is former hillary clinton presidential campaign manager patti solis doyle, the head of the brunswick group public affairs practice and, patti, you said you thought kamala harris had more to lose and more to win last night how do you think it turned out >> i think she won i think she won a lot. look, going into last night's debate as you mentioned, she had the most to lose because according to "the new york times" sienna poll, 28% of voters still wanted to know more about her. and while both candidates did not put much more specifics it each of their policy agendas last night, what we did learn about kamala harris is that she's tough, she's smart, she's

ready to lead, she most certainly passed that commander in chief test, she was likable, she was agile, and i think voters really got a glimpse of what she would be like as president. so i thought she knocked it out of the park in all honesty. >> a lot of times these debates are relative performances, based on the person standing across from you that was certainly the case with the first debate, between former president trump and president biden. and you saw what happened after that this was also a case where kamala harris laid a lot of traps, laid a lot of bait, and president trump took it. >> he sure did really from the get-go, from the moment she walked on that stage, walked right up to him, put her hand out, for him to shake it, which he clearly did not want to do i think she owned the debate. she started debating with the

s size of his rallies and the energy of his rallies which i think rattled him and clearly made him angry you could tell by the sort of volume of his voice. but then kept going, kept going in terms of saying that world leaders laugh at him, they call him a disgrace, he really just took it at every opportunity and she really just twisted the knife. and i think what i found personally interesting, sort of as a former practitioner and having prepped many candidates for debates is she compensated for the muted mics by using her facial expressions to sort of contrast, rather than, you know, jumping in verbally. and at one point she put her hand under her chin, just in amusement. it was really remarkable how she

came out on top in this debate, looking amused >> stuff like facial expressions is pretty subjective and there were people who were put off by some of the facial expressions but, look, what we have been trying to figure out today is how much this matters, if there. entrenched bases on each side of this arguing over undecided voters at this point how do you think that will play out? will there be a second debate because president trump was on "fox & friends" earlier this morning saying he thinks he won the debate and foolish to take another round, another go at a second round of this, that he wouldn't do it necessarily. >> absolutely right. this country is very much divided. you know, and it's going to be a close race no matter what. we'll see what polls say postdebate whether it moved any needles. kamala harris needed to do two things make sure her democratic base

stayed excited, energetic. i think she accomplished and that and also appeal to moderate undecided independent voters i think she did that as well by, you know -- reinforcing her position on fracking, citing goldman sachs about the analysis of her economic plan tapping herself as a gun holder. i think smart to the do another debate because this is the world stage. a big stage where she will be able to continue to do what she did last night and that is appeal to those moderate voters. i'm not sure if trump will take the bait this time and accept the challenge, but we'll see. >> patti, thank you for being with us this morning >> thank you for having me. all right. after this we'll bring you a lot more highlights from cnbc's "game plan" summit yesterday here in los angeles where i am

this morning meantime, also going to talk to former house speaker kevin mccarthy he's going to join us with his reaction to the debate and so much more. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" coming right back after this.

welcome back to "squawk box" this morning at the "game plan" summit yesterday i moderated a session about bringing the olympics in los angeles four years from now following the big success that took place in paris, and we all saw it this summer i asked from the 2028 games to share the back-story of the epic-closing ceremony stunt we all remember with tom cruise. >> we have had the original idea, the person in the stadium was a stunt double no way we're getting this one. four hours of filming time do the thing at l.a. with the hollywood sign, hand off the thing and he's done. maybe the other stuff and the rest a stunt double. in about five minutes into the production he goes, i'm in but only do it if i get to do everything every step of the way got more involved more engaged and i will tell you when the mayor who orchestrated us to somehow film at the hollywood sign, which was -- you actually don't know how hard that is.

>> yeah. >> this is said, needed tom cruise did it all for free. everyone on that program, 15 minutes did it for free. finished filming mission: impossible,filmed the scene. landed in l.a. two jumps. didn't like the first one. we did a second jump then he putted from palmdale to the hollywood sign filmed from 1:00 to 5:00 helicopter burbank to london -- >> nobody noticed. >> all of this the stuff -- there was -- these people who pay attention to the hollywood sign >> right. >> i will just say -- there are cameras at the hollywood sign. i don't know why they didn't work that day -- >> you know somebody >> i don't know what happened, andrew one of those weird, lucky l.a. things cameras didn't work that day and we were able to pull it off. the secret now.

the color of the olympic greens in the rings is cgi. couldn't touch the hollywood sign. >> not seeing rings on the hollywood sign during the olympics are will we? >> exploring that. a longer more complicated conversation and a lot to do but a spectacular opportunity that, if there was way to do it it's certainly something we'd like to try to do people did go looking for him after. and also, los angeles mayor karen bass explained how her "no carp car plan" is going to work a big issue here in l.a. >> what we hope to do is for no cars to the venues to the games. public transportation to the games. >> to the games? >> life goes onin the city we all collectively went through covid and learned about remote work and learned about staying home so i think we can stagger work schedules. another thing done in '84 was truck deliveries were made at night. >> right. >> so i think there is a way we

can organize the region so that traffic will be less and manageable and that people that go to the games will go to the games -- via truss bus and truck. >> and close out the day i sat down with snapchat co-founder kevin spiegel. the company leaning into sports through partnerships with sports and broadcasters using augmented reality elevating fan experience and asked him if he thinks social media companies would ever jump into the streaming war itself to try to buy broadcast rights given we saw folks like netflix -- >> never say never today look at business model of social media it's highly reliant on a very large volume of very inexpensive contenten heavily personalized to make it relevant ultimately that's why i think tech companies and social media businesses ebb joy very high margins. i certainly think it's possible that folks may branch out into

streaming rights and things like that for now i think a pretty good thing going. >> also we talked how we feels about other social media companies copying so many of snap's features. >> it does annoy me sometimes -- you know, or the -- i think the sense from, you know, sometimes the investors or media that somehow that limits our overall business opportunity i think that just -- frankly, runs counter to the history fof innovation it triumphs and we literally have faith in that. >> so much of evan's features, called an innovation factory for the rest of silicon valley and the rest of social media companies because so many features started on snap we now see on tiktok, facebook and instagram so we got into it. i also asked if he would bay

sports team which wehe would buy hands down, nfl. reason, economics. he know the math. >> before we talk about it can we go back to the mayor of los angeles saying a no-car zone i find that so interesting obviously it would help a lot of traffic issues. >> we need a special -- a special dispensation. >> not what i was going to say. >> did you ask her >> think they get special dispensation, and will tick them off. vips used to being treated differently, do they not get special treatment? >> not sure how that portion of that is going to work. i will say, people forget this the teams themselves travel by bus. >> right. >> pretty much across the board. even lebron james and the like >> but all the big sponsors, all the big wigs all think they

should have their own cars -- >> traveling by bus or minivan, something like that. and will there be special service for certain groups i am sure about that. >> you can't handle that for us, sorkin, with casey right there >> you're always thinking of number one number one i get it. >> yeah. you. i'm assuming you did that. are you not telling us the whole story? >> no. i'm telling you the whole thing. >> i imagine there will be -- >> and for people like you, joe kernen, i am sure they will have a special -- >> all right >> a special vehicle for you and a special -- >> i'll do a scooter if i have to maybe a hoverboard got your hoverboard to bring out. >> just remember this, joe >> yes, sir? >> if you join the olympics and covering it on "squawk" you're doing it at 3:00 a.m. in the morning. >> aww, just like pebble beach. >> yeah. that's right that's right. well, then, we've got to have

cars. >> all right it is just after 8:00 a.m. on the east coast and you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with -- joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin andrew is in l.a. this morning extra early. among today's top stories we are counting down to august cpi inflation data that comes your way at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, about 28 minutes to go. it will be a key piece of data for the fed next week when it decides whether and by how much to cut interest rates. oil prices are moving higher this after yesterday's lowest settlement for wti crude since late 2021. concerns over potential output disruptions tied to hurricane franzese bolsters prices. then mortgage rates falling last week to the lowest level in a year and a half. the mortgage bankers association says the average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed rate mortgages dropped to 6.29%. down from 6.43% the week prior

last week the sixth straight week of falling rates. futures right now, triple-digit losses. actually just moved away from that no longer down 100 on the dow. the treasury yields, dropping. oil's been dropping. up today on francine for more on the markets, mike santoli at the syne. added everything up with the ben franklin closed market looks good still but i mentioned, like, i don't know give you ten things including nvidia down 23%. warren buffett, jpmorgan give you things make me feel a little aftergitation but you thk average still in the bull's favor? >> no doubt still the case all the things you mentioned probably help explain why the market has been hesitating here. look at the chart of the s&p 500, it's almost two months into a period sorting out how much is

the economy slowing? how much is priced into valuations and will the fed get it right in terms of cutting rates at the right pace in time to save a soft landing actually rebounded yesterday by about a third of a percent a little more than that. in the s&p a little more concentrated an undertow the concern about the cyclical parts of the markets remained under way from last week. some financials hit on that in terms of consumer credit, from allied financial and others. look at the bank index a similar story. a couple months sideways but overall trend still looks okay for now. seems as if we can kind of sort of rely on the idea that the economy sort of hangs in now based on what we can see and feel, but we just don't know what the trajectory is and when we get a fed cut rate typically banks do okay in that environment obviously unless and until you get more clear recessionary evidence.

look at the market implied forward inflation rate over five-year span three-year chart of the five year expected inflation. here we are just about at 2% fed target not a reliable forecast, of course exactly what inflation will be but shows how far we've come down and the idea right now the market's using real money, moved past the idea kind of inflation is the main threat we'll see cpi to see if that's a valid assumption. >> very good, mike got a favorite taylor swift song, and are you brave enough to admit you have a favorite taylor swift song? >> and to sing it. >> i have -- well, no, becky certainly not brave enough but honestly i kind of inherited it all from my daughters. >> me, too. >> i'll check with them. >> you don't know -- have you been to a concert? >> they've been to a concert i've been outside the stadium. >> i have been to multiple and i

have multiple favorites. yeah. >> what's your favorite? come on. say it >> he's not brave enough to admit it >> that's right. i'm not brave enough it's early, though it's probably, you know -- >> there's a song called "early"? >> earl taylor it's early taylor hints. breaking cpi inflation data next digging into the economic messages we heard from donald trump and kamala harris at last night's debate with former treasury department official natasha sarin and get debate reaction from former speaker of the house kevin mccarthy he's going to sit in andrew's seat right here onset. tomorrow right here on "squawk box," republican vice presidential candidate j.d. vance will join us he will also be onset right here on times square. we're coming right back.

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she is biden the worst inflation we've ever had. a horrible economy because inflation has made it so bad that she can't get away with that. >> thank you. >> clearly, i am not joe biden, and i am certainly not donald trump. and what i do offer is a new generation of leadership for our country. >> just a few of the fireworks we saw concerning inflation and the economy at last night's presidential debate. joining us with her takeaways everything she saw, natasha sa sarin, law professor at yale university previously a biden department official and talking both sides of the aisle about their reaction to what they saw. i'll ask for your initial reaction just on the broad piece and then let's maybe get into some of the details of what you saw.

>> well, thank you so much for having me, and i think what you saw yesterday and you saw it from starting off the bat, first question was on the economy, was a really fundamentally different vision for the future of america. you have vice president harris who's emphasized she's keen to create what she calls an opportunity economy. that means investing in families, investing in small businesses, creating pathways to wealth creation and opportunities for americans, and it's a pretty positive message that i think you saw her turn to again and again last night that i hope resonates with the american people. on the flip side, you saw former president trump who has a less positive vision for the future of america, and he has an emphasis on and, again, turned to it right off the bat, his vision for the economy is tax cuts for the very, very top. and a very, very substantial middle-class tax increase in the form of tariffs that would translate to thousands of

dollars of additional taxes for the average american family over the course of the year so again, i think those are fundamentally different visions and it's right for a lot of debate about the substance of particular policies but we shouldn't lose sort of the big picture these are different candidates who offer a different vision for the world. >> natasha, no question that is the case i think there's a bigger question, though, about the lack of details, frankly, by both candidates in certain respects. also i was going to say, not just details how they plan to spend money but how they plan to balance budgets, how they plan to deal with the deficit none of those issues, a., came up at all. forget about the debate. they don't come up in any context. and at some point the math doesn't make any sense. >> and to sort of make your point for you, andrew, the word "deficit" came up once in last night's debate i totally agree and think this is a place, frankly, i'm keen to

see more detail from both candidates i will say that we're in a campaign and, you know, this is an election that is about much more than economic policy, although economic policy is sort of central to what voters care about and are concerned about, but you do even with respect to the deficit have a really different picture when you're comparing trump and harris. harris is committed to and has been explicit that she is keen to pay for these necessary investments that she wants to make in american families, and she's outlined exactly how she would do that. if you look at the biden budget proposals they offer what she's embraced they offer a different view for how we think about taxation of large corporations she would increase the corporate tax rate they offer a different view for how we think about taxation of the wealthy. she thinks, she believes deeply in capital tax reform. though in a different way and more moderated relative to

biden's previous stances so there are real revenue raisers here that she's keen to tap into to pay for the types of investments she wants to make. if you look at trump, he has been explicit that sort of core to his agenda is tax cuts, but other than tariffs, which are a middle-class tax increase to the tune of $2 trillion over the course of the decade, he has no pay force and that's a really significant problem. >> natasha, ask you a question about the tariff issue two schools of thought one, tariff piece of his strategy is a -- the generous view a negotiating ploy in some regards. that he may not actually go through with all of them that he would use it as a cudgel against certainly countries to get certain things from them so when doing the math, if you will, on the tariffs, it's

unclear where they really land what do you make of that >> i think, like, you and i could sit here and come up with generous views and come up with versions of tariff and trade and competition policy that are fundamentally different than the one that president trump has articulated and say, that would be a policy proposal worthwhile of debate. may or may not have an impact on american consumer, the way the policies he's actually articulated will have. >> were you disappointed when sheasked the vice president -- actually former president trump asked her. you left all of these tariffs on that i -- and she totally punted, went on a total nonsequitur. didn't you want to hear an answer why biden and harris left all the tariffs on, since talking about them so dismissively now the tariffs? >> so i think there are important context and important questions to be raised with respect to the existing tariffs

that we have in place. but i don't want those questions and contexts in the nature of what i wish the candidates would say to lose sight of the fact that the tariffs we're talking about now are too orders of magnitude larger than any tariffs contemplated recently. what you're talking about here tariffs that over the course of the decade would amount to $2.5 trillion, $3 trillion in additional tax increases for american families. i wish i had heard frankly an answer from president trump as to why he thinks that the only financing that he can offer for how we should try to bring ourselves towards a better fiscal position is on the heels of middle-class families paying more taxes >> natasha, look forward to talking to you more about all of this thank you for joining us especially after that big debate last evening becky? >> so great to be with you.

>> thanks. when we come back, breaking cpi inflation data and reaction from steven eisman next, former speak herb of the house kevin mccarthyoi jns us on last night's presidential debate "squawk box" will be right back. hi, my name is damian clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all these

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. all morning we've been hearing from both sides about last night's presidential debate as a former biden administration treasury official, let's get the perspective from our next guest. i don't know where he stands former house speaker kevin mccarthy, and former speaker, speaker mccarthy, good to have you on. >> thanks for having me back. >> i asked earlier, pretend you're a.i. but not the bias what we're -- actually unbiased. what do you make of the debate last night >> look, i think missed opportunities for trump. i think there was a

disadvantage abc really won-sided i think she performed better than expectations but didn't do what she needed to do, kamala harris if you take that "new york times" poll, there's a big chunk that's still wants to know what is her plan? talked about one but didn't tell it trump should have continued to frame her. i thought trump's ending was good why didn't you do anything i wish he would have started at the beginning with that. he did take the bait at times, crowd size and others, but end of the day, even watch other channel it's like cnn doing a focus group saying, kamala won but i'm not voting for her i don't think it make as difference it's big taylor swift but i'd "shake it off. eight wakes away. >> there you go. >> that "new york times" poll that came out this weekend was telling when it says she has stalled. it's bad if trump is winning in a national poll he's winning big in electoral college. >> why do the debates if you don't think it will make a difference >> well --

debates today, you have to, in a basis, to do it, but it's not what the people want in a debate in my view, there's no undecided voter in america it's coming down to who gets out the low-propensity voters and -- >> an argument going after your base attacking right or left depending on the candidate you are. >> comes down to two debates pennsylvania and georgia trump is at 270. doesn't need arizona doesn't need nevada. you'll fike, that if that's them money, trump is going to win what's going to happen all of those excited in the harris camp, behind where hillary sat by three points today. eight points behind in polls biden was sitting today. biden only won by 48,918 votes what's going to happen is she made a mistake in -- picked governor shapiro a different race. >> here's another question to me the most damns thing said last night continuing to say he

won the election, it was stolen from him said it repeatedly that's got to make some americans say -- >> that's par for the course never not said it. >> has he said anything different he hasn't said the last four years? >> brings it to forefront voters worried there will be an issue. >> but are they going to vote for kamala harris? i would say -- >> people will make a decision when they go to the grocery store and it costs more. what he should have done and should say about kamala every time it's more of the same. i think democrats have done very well trying to distance her from biden but that is where the commentating she literally said to that same abc reporter she would confiscate guns and use an executive order to do it and no one went back at her. >> the kamala harris of a month ago that no one knew anything about, the same democratic voters, they're just as thinth enthusiastic as a month ago.

they would would be with her all along. who did she convert? not sure anyone is left to convert. anybody but -- could there be another debate >> no. >> there will not be another debate >> that's my opinion i'm not running the campaign kamala did what she feels she wanted to do doesn't want to make a mistake i don't think it will control the outcome. >> if trump doesn't control him, he had so many opportunities i think he went in there with the notion i am going to highlight her record and what happened, but then he didn't do it. >> let's not over think it you had a wedding didn't go exactly as you wanted but no one else really knows it. >> i think other people know. >> trump controlled himself more than normal. >> i don't think that's an argument that's going to make you feel good. >> did he miss opportunities what she did well i would say, she would avoid the answering the question then pivot to something to talk about the crowd size or talk about wharton.

>> jumped right on it! every one of those -- >> he should have avoided it. >> what does that tell you about his ability -- one of the commentators maybe men are just too emotional being president. >> no. not at all simply put, did trump make the tough decisions when it came to putin never invaded another country, trump make tough decisions to secure our border what people are going to look at what people are going to make decisions about. >> speaker, here's my question to you >> sorry missed you andrew. >> great to see you. >> this is your -- >> i turned fox on afterwards i wanted to hear what they were reacting to. >> and i thought -- blocked on your tv? >> andrew, tells me you don't watch fox? >> no, no, no. i switch around a lot to try to see what everybody's saying and what everybody's thinking. and hear brett say straight up, trump lost

harris won my question to you a former president trump and j.d. vance spent the last couple of weeks, if not months now, trying to suggest effectively that vice president harris is effectively not competent. can't articulate thoughts, put together sentences you heard that kind of language before, and so i'm curious what you're reaction was to frankly i think we all saw with our own eyes just how articulate she was on all of these issues you may not agree with her policies on these issues but her ability to defend and in some cases even attack i think were at a different level than i think a lot of people were expecting. even elon musk, you know well, i know, out there on twitter saying it exceeded expectations. you may say expectations were low. >> look, she did do well in that but i tell you even her own campaign gets concerned about that they don't let her go off

teleprompter we've watched at times those word salads come forward did she not have mixup? no she did well very beginning looked comfortable. scripted had a good night doesn't mean she's going to win or changed votes in the process. her campaign's going to celebrate today maybe raised a little money but not going to change the outcome of this race. this race is going to be based upon the economy, inflation, the border and crime and she can't change that even if she read something different in the telep teleprompter. >> thank you, former speaker glad to have you here this morning. going on both sides of the aisle. coming up, number of the morning, august cpi. stay tuned for that. 't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is.

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli here live at cmhq with important breaking news of the morning. august read on consumer price index. last look at the series of data points going into next week's obvious big fomc meeting month over month headline up 0.2 exactly as expected. up 0.3 stripping out of food and energy 0.1 higher than expected go to march up 0.4 look at year over year numbers rearview mirror's 2.9. 2. 9 becomes 2.5

smallest amount going back to february of 2021 and if you look at year over year ex food and nenergy, 3.2. exactly as expected and same as rearview mirror and what we want to definitely pay very, very close attention to here are the indices. cpi index going all the way back to 1913, actually moved down just a smidge. from 3.1454 to 3.1479. that's higher but lower than expect aceations and highest lel since 1913 once again look at the core indice, only back to 1957, it also came in more than expected and more than our last look at 319.76. never been higher. we see that yields are moving up, and my guess is if you look at expectations, we can see that

there was one outlier. that was the core month over month, a quench higher year over year headline drops 0.4. again, we could talk about significance progress on inflation still not at 2%. will it ever be at 2%? does it matter matter the at 1.8. fed wouldn't look at that, steady pricing below the target see how it all works out we see yesterdays closes 2s significant. a significant two-year close and 15.5 low yield close and everybody's talking about the debate a bit disappointed having kids and grand in kids who can't afford houses and, of course, can't afford insurance once you buy them or other prices seemed like there was really an economic tone deaf panel with respect to drilling down give people $50,000 to buy their

house sounds like a good idea, but, hmm cpi my reflect and price of homes might go up $50,000. "squawk box," well, here we are, joe. back to you. >> rick, thank you an interesting, by the way, view that you think that, if first-time home buyers are granted money from the government it will increase prices for homes >> that's where prices have increased. government policies. that's the problem what the moderators, never drill down young people, i feel so sorry for you. really, i do there's an economic dishonesty going on here. >> let me ask, then, since we're on the topic, rick, how you feel about tariffs? >> you know how i feel about tariffs? it's a bargaining chip, and many of the tariffs with china are still on once again moderators don't

drill down but they do on two things that don't make economic sense whatsoever >> prices are going up no matter what, andrew whether do it on the tariff side policies are silly can't be santa claus all of those programs aren't policies they're promises that never get by congress and each has a cost we can't afford because we've done this before when you pre-pay and make policies that don't make economic sense you may think you're getting a benefit look at what we learned yesterday. finally, wages reached 2019, but doesn't reflect how much they've gone up since 2019 if you're out there and you're a young person, study up you know, study up all of these superstars that made recommendations in such a timely fashion yesterday maybe they don't feel the pain of what's going on but i feel bad

they can't buy houses and insurance. you think the price of insurance will go down, andrew you think people in florida that can barely hold on to their homes could afford 300% increases in their insurance >> there is no question about that it is a very true statements. >> and why don't we talk about it why don't we talk about it >> our issues around climate issues and other things affecting things in florida. >> what did you learn last night? have the vice president, smart and can memorize that trump takes the bait but the abc people are like the turkey shoot! >> rick, we're going to continue the conversation right now about cpi. i want to get everybody's take on what we're just hearing as relates to this inflation data and economist at pimco emily roland co-strategist at john hancock involvement margaret and our own steve liesman here start with you and get your reaction to the number and maybe

get inside the mind of fed looking at this number this morning. >> i'll do that. food was a goose egg energy down 0.8. get more of that given what's happened to the price of oil over the past month. interesting. used cars down 1%. thought they might level off here new cars up at zero. and rent, can't get help from. quite a mystery. up 0.5 again this is the proxy they use for housing costs. doesn't seem to come down. i keep reading addict dotal prices like in florida continues to expected to show up medicare services down, another thing, 0.1%. an expectation this is going to 0 be coming back had been down. airline fares up 3.1%.

take a second to talk about this there's a residual seasonality problem or because of the pandemic saw airline fares rise each summer. an expect they'll continue to rise the pandemic messed up a lot of data easy specially seasonality, seasonal say judgments living with this a while not sure how much airline fares go up. tend to go down with energy. quickly then, as rick pointed out, a rise in yield that shows in up the expectation for the fed. what's happening right now, i think this is right, there was one chance, a small chance, this data might favor a 50 basis point increase it does not. substantially lower, substantially below expectations a chance it might favor 50 it does not. what happened is you had an increase in the probability of a 25, from 71 to 85% i expect with the ppi tomorrow if it comes in around expectations it will lock in at

25 for next week. >> thank you, steve. tiffany, what wos as your reactn and take on all of this? >> i agree think think this is probably a 25 basis point rate cut in september. takes away some urgency that the markets were discussing around a 50 i think ultimately, though, the fed probably made up its mind. i don't think the labor market report we got a few weeks ago was weak enough for them to go it wasn't great. but it wasn't weak enough for them to go 50. i think more likely what happens in september is they announce 25 but they make it very clear that they're going to do a sequence of rate cuts, because relative to their own monetary policy rules they look a little behind the curve. they can, there's a range of possible outcomes here where it's appropriate for them to be cutting. i think that's really the message they're going to send. >> and your reaction what you think the fed may do >> yeah. this was a good report in fact, the fourth consecutive good report we got after three bad ones to start the year

you know, the shelter component here, a little worrisome responsible for 70% of the gains in cpi over the last several months the housing market very stubborn overall the fed will be a lot more focused on the labor market i agree with tiffany last month's job report wasn't great. revisions terrible job openings at lowest level since 2021 hearing respondents in surveys telling us jobs are hard to find them heard from powell and jackson hole the fed does not welcome anymore cooling in the labor market we think the focus here shifts away from inflation towards the labor market it's going to be 25 basis points in september bond markets loading up the rest of the year. 50 basis points expected in november 50 in december we think that's a little too aggressive here given that inflation and shelter still have not come down. >> and we speak to that. if the view by the market and the market hasn't been so right about the fed this whole time, is that there's going to be a 50-point -- two 50-point cuts,

after september. there is this argument, as i say, ripping the band-aid. you know this is coming anyway, what's the advantage to doing it, to doing it more slowly? >> yeah. i mean, i think bringing it back to the number that's priced in we can talk about 50 or 25 that's cute at the end of the day. fed on average cut 17 times in the cutting cycle. 4.25% drop in the fed funds rate from peak to trough. that might not be the case this time maybe we have a soft landing, but if this plays out as history suggests the fed is cutting deeply to deal with a contraction economic activity, unemployment rate shooting up and that in environment back to the investment perspective a nice opportunity to look at backups in bond yields and seeing that a bit this morning and take at advantage of the elevated income that's available here in fixed income. >> i need to thank all of you.

tiffany, emily, rick, of course, and steve liesman for your perspective on this news this morning. thanks so much becky? >> thanks. when we come back, much more reaction to the cpi and inflation data and what it could mean for the fed's upcoming interest rate decision and senior port fot follow yo manager steven eismawin ll join us and we'll talk to him about the financials "squawk box" will be right back. [ silence

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for more on the cpi data, the fed and the markets, we want to bring in steve iseman,

someone who saw everything with the big short long ahead of time, was able to see what was happening. we come to you on a lot of issues because you have been so incredibly right on some of the bets you've made where do you think things stand with the financials? we heard from bank of america yesterday, saying that things look pretty good, but you also heard from jamie dimon saying there could be some concerns out there on the broader spectrum. you haven't been worried about the banks for a while. are you still feeling that way >> from a systemic persp perspective -- >> you have not been buying things - >> from a systemic perspective, i lose no sleep about the banks. they're extremely well capitalized, they understand their risks better than they ever have. so, there's nothing to worry about with respect to the banks. so invest them in a different story. >> you didn't like them a year ago. how are you feeling about them now? >> i don't think there's a story

with to the banks. i find them to be trading vehicles, people use them as a means to express how they feel about the economy. right now what's facing the banks is the fed's going to cut rates and that's going to hurt net interest margins, which is what jpmorgan said yesterday credit quality is getting slightly worse on the margin, which is what ally said and people got hysterical and took the stock down 20% but there's no story with respect to the banks right now. >> if it's a trading vehicle and jpmorgan shares were down $11 on concerns about net interest income, is that an opportunity to buy in on a trading moment? >> you know, this is what i don't do i don't trade. it is a long-term story, i'll own it i don't think there's great long-term stories generally in the financial sector there are a few, you know,

things here and there. like you can own visa long term because it's a great business. but there's no great story in the banks right now one way or the other. >> what do you anticipate from the fed next week if it doesn't matter for financials, it does matter beyond that >> i actually thaing there's reality and perception i think people spend a lot of time trying to figure out what the fed is going to do my guess is the fed will cut 25 basis points and that will be fine it's important on the margin, certainly important on fed day i don't think it's that important for long-term investors. >> we remember talking in the commercial break ahead of time that your prediction that donald trump was going to win you came out with that prediction a while ago. >> i said 100% certainty. >> 100% certainty. days before joe biden stepped out of the race. >> in my own defense, i made that prediction before the first debate before trump and biden.

that prediction was looking really good after the debate i withdraw it. i did not anticipate a sitting president of the united states was going to drop out of the race it's never happened before i think the election is a tossup if i had to stake my life on it, i would say still probably trump wins because he'll win pennsylvania but it's too hard to tell. >> i thought you were going to follow up. >> and i owe you an apology. >> because the last time - >> join the crowd. >> the last time i was on -- >> i have no idea where you're going. >> i know you don't. the last time i was on, you pressed me about the fact that the low-end consumer is having problems i gave you very short shift about it because i didn't think it was important with respect to the market. >> let me just think back on times you've blown me off. no, i can't nair it down. >> it was the last time i was here. >> i'm kidding. >> and the reason, no one asked

me about the low-end consumer since 2008. >> one of the most charming things -- charming is sort of an interesting term, but as your unvarnished response to many questions that you think may or may not be a good question, which is why we have you on so much because it's refreshing >> wait. what do you think now? >> there's no question the lower end consumer is having problems. you see it in dollar tree, dollar general, you saw that with ally. but i don't think that it is dispositive in terms of the market or the economy. it means the economy is slowing and it's definitely slowing. but the last time the lower end consumer was really important was 2006, '07 and '08 when the consumer was overlevered that consumer is not overlevered. that consumer is just having issues in terms of income is not keeping up with inflation. >> is that sometimes, though, almost the canary in the coal mine, problems start there and

work their way up the ladder >> i mean, they've worked their way through already. the economy has slowed like i said, it's not a -- it's not a systemic issue the banks have never been in this great shape in anyone's lifetime. >> what about the nontraditional banks, other areas where you can see leverage pile up, other areas that are not as tightly regulated? >> you know, i got that question on a podcast i was on a couple of weeks ago the problem is there's so little data that you could extrapolate and create a nightmare scenario you want >> are any of them plausible scenarios? >> i don't think so. given there's so little data, you could spin it any way you want we can see delinquencies are up a little, losses are up a little yeah, i think people got hysterical yesterday about ally when they said deal link wencies would be somewhat higher they didn't say they were going to blow up.

>> can you put your prediction on the make up of the three branches of government and whether that would change your view on anything in terms of if -- if there wasn't unrealize i ed capital dane -- >> if harris wins and both houses go democrat, i think that's negative for the stock market i put a low probability on that happening. >> if it was just gridlock, two out of three, one way or the other? >> i think the economy is fine and the market drives higher. >> and everything we've already done percolates through and it's okay, we've had our inflation scare? >> right and the fed will cut rates next year, the economy will be find - >> 200 basis points total? how much. >> you know what, i have absolutely no interest in trying to predict how much the fed will cut. >> they'll cut enough. and the next recession is what year >> i have no idea. the only thing i think is if the fed cuts rates officially, the housing market might start to come back, which would be very

helpful for the economy. >> steve, the reason you think the stock market has a negative response if the democrats take all three? >> people will start to worry about much higher taxes, much greater levels of regulation, and then they'll start to spin any nightmare scenario they want until we figure out what we want. >> i had a housing question. we had a conversation with rick santelli about vice president harris' proposal to handing out money to first-time buyers and what that means. i'm curious what you think it would mean to the housing market >> i think the proposal to hand out $20,000 to first-time home buyers is stupid i am not going to pull any punches on that. it has -- it will have absolutely no impact on housing sales.

all it will do is drive the price of first-time home buyers the houses they want up by $25,000. the problems with housing are not demand they are supply. there's not enough first -- new homes being built, and interest rates went up too much for people to be able to buy existing homes that's not a we're going to give people $25,000 that won't solve the problem. >> to 25 or 50 >> i think it was 25. >> i think it's 50, isn't it >> i think it's 50 steve, i think it's 50. >> it doesn't matter then people will raise housing prices by 50 that's not going to have an impact you don't have a demand problem. >> steve, thank you for coming in we always appreciate having you. >> i didn't remember that, but i like that you'll do that if something else bothers me, will you apologize >> it's bothering me. >> thank you programming note, jd vance

tomorrow will be sitting right where steve is, that should be -- we have a lot to talk to him about. it will be the day after the day after. let's get a final check on the markets very quickly the futures down for the dow by 150 points nasdaq has turned around it's up by close to ten points folks, that does it today on this 9/11, never forget. right now it's time for "squawk on the street. good wednesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. today mark 23 years since the september 11th attacks memorials are being held around the country. you are looking at a shot from the 9/11 memorial in manhattan and a ceremony at the pentagon we will have a moment of silence here at the nyse this hour meantime, premarket is red august cpi comes in as exp