it's a good buy here >> steve weiss >> i'm staying with goldman, just over 11 times earnings next year i think it's compelling valuation here >> okay. joe t., round us up. >> applovin. more to go on the upside until november >> all right we'll keep our eyes on these markets, because they're getting more interesting as we speak as you see some technology stocks are being bid up, see you in a couple of hours "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ indeed an improving tone as we move throughout the day welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead. some data point disappointment this morning, with that latest read on inflation, dashing hopes for a half point rate cut next week but one of our guest says the size of the first cut doesn't matter, and the time to deploy cash is still now. plus, those mixed messages from

the banks and why subprime could be the new prime our guest explains what that means. and there's one group of consumer stocks that may not take off, even in a soft landing. we've got the story and the trades you may want to avoid as a result before all of that, though, we are far off the worst levels of the market over to dom chu for the latest >> people are thinking the first cut is the deepest, and it's not really the case right now, at least the markets don't think they are the dow is down 253 points, 2/3 of 1%. it's pretty deep, but at one point we were down about 700 plus points on the dow industrials. so just keep that in mind. basically for the s&p 500, at 5482, down 14 points or one quarter of 1%. we were up one point at the highs of the session and down 89 points tat low so, again, well off the worst levels there and the nasdaq composite, 17,094, up about one half of 1%.

one place to keep an interesting eye on has been the extreme downside we have seen as of late in oil and energy stocks overall. if you look at the s&p 500 year-to-date, it's up 15%. technology overall, up about 10% there. at least for the spdr etf. and the xle up one half of 1%. at one point today, energy was the only sector of all 11 in the s&p that was down on a year-to-date basis keep an eye on that weakening energy trade and see if there is a balance there. by the way, if you are looking for some of the trading plays on what's happening with the election right now check out these names like first solar among some of the alternative energy plays, seeing upside there, given the outcome of the debate last night some point to the idea that clean energy may seem more of a bid, the likelier, relatively speaking, that we see kamala harris progressing in the polls. this is a lithium play for batteries. so the clean energy trade, at least for now, showing signs of

life, kell back over to you >> did trump make some supportive comments of it as well >> we are seeing some of those things, yes. but those comments are in passing in the context of a debate, whether or not they're substantive or not, at least the betting side of things is playing this way for clean energy >> and they have been under such pressure dom, thank you very much dom chu. so, was this morning's cpi data a nail in the coffin for a half point rate cut? consumer prices were up 0.2 last moment, bringing down the inflation rate 2.5%. but excludeing food and energy, the career cpi jumped 0.3%, slightly higher than expected. so is inflation sticky or is the report altered joining us to discuss is my next guests steve liesman is here with us,

as well. in the past 4 1/2 years, have we learned anything about what's going on with owners equivalent rent >> it just remains sticky. we can't seem to get that series to match what we think is going on in the broader economy, which is a decline in rents and even home prices. it remains to be seen what happens as the fed reduces rates and mortgage rates come down, whether or not that brings more buyers into the market and perhaps pushes it up but this series should have gone down, i don't know, 12, even 18 months ago relative to what's happening with others here so i think the fed will tend to discount this and see it as a snapback from lower numbers that we had previously. >> that's why i wonder if the fed were to discount it, wouldn't that maybe take the impetus off of today's report pushing them to do 25 instead of 50 >> i think the report overall does sort of, as you said, nail

in the coffin for 50 i don't think this is a report that says we have real deflation problem that the fed has to catch up to. i think the fed wants to do 25 i don't think there's much in today's cpi or tomorrow's ppi that would suggest the fed would do 50. i would note that the market increased the probability of a 25 basis point cut in september. >> you are expecting 25, maybe a series of them at the meetings to come. how do you expect the fed to talk about these rate cuts, as well >> right so for now, we think the fed is going to talk about the rate cuts as being somewhat gradual i don't know they'll explicitly use that word, because they don't want to precommit, especially when they know how quickly things can move around turning points at the same time, they do want to stress that the base case for a soft landing means you cut gradually to get back to

neutral. so they expressed some concerns around the labor market, as they should, but they will express confidence that the economy is holding up so these are not rate cuts that are bringing you deep into accommodative territory. you're not saying there's a recession, we need to accommodate the economy. you're saying the time has come to get back to neutral >> so paul, we're looking at the dow intraday, down more than 500 points in the aftermath of this report and these 50 cut odds going smaller. now we're recovering why do you think that is >> yeah, we've seen this happen so many times i've lost count since 2022, the middle of 2022, expecting rate cuts, hoping and praying for rate cuts and they don't materialize quite as quickly or in the magnitude that the markets expect i think that's what you have seen in the knee jerk reaction to today's report. we want to focus on the future

it's an academic question, 25 or 50, we think they cut a full percentage point this year and more into next year. we see that soft landing we agree with that scenario, and now is the time to start positioning for that eventual economic pivot to stronger and more sustained growth. we need the economy to gather strength at the end of next year, creating more cyclical opportunities for investors. >> do you think it's significant, the stock market reaction here, steve if we had a thousand point selloff, that is information on some level that's what the consensus the market opinion thinks is warranted. and the fact that we are down almost 200 points right now, that feels like it's a financial system giving permission on a smaller cut on the hopes we can have a soft landing. >> i think the way to think about the market here, and i'll deaf to other experts, but my take has been that the market thinks it can have its cake and eat it too it can have rate cuts and strong

growth every time that growth story comes into question over the past several weeks, kelly, it seems like the market sells off. i think the market is right here, in that sense that fed rate cut, if you do have real weakness, will not completely offset it, but not enough to offset real economic weakness. that would create the situation where the fed would need to cut much more quickly and deeply >> right >> right now, the market baseline, i think, is a soft landing with rate cuts if that soft landing turns harder, that's what concerns the market >> rick, let's get your take on this we had a ten-year note auction rick, how did it go? >> terrific. boy, oh, boy i'll tell you what, they were just rushing to the table to buy these ten-year notes we auctioned off 39 billion of them, kelly. it's a reopening, adding to an issues who coupon was established about a month ago.

and the yield was 3.648, a basis and a half below the one issued market at 1:00 eastern what does that mean? lower yields mean higher prices. the government was a seller, it was a very solid auction and if you look at the bid-to-cover, it was the best since june so not long ago, but look at the other metrics. indirect bidders, whopping 76%, the best foreign involvement since february of '22. if you look at dealer downtown, the buffet table is almost empty. 10.2%, the smallest takedown since august of '23. the only fly in the ointment, why it was an a-minus auction, is direct bitters, just like yesterday's three-year, they were at 13.7%. the weakest sense august of '21. why? well, most likely because there was interest outside of the country in many ways, and the auction takedown, many are

saying it's the slowing economy, maybe the yield curve. maybe it was a debate last night. we're indebted up to our eyeballs there was a lot of programs and policies being thrown out there. how are we going to pay for them if you have to question if that is an issue, why did they buy so many ten-year notes? most likely the slowing economy is having a big effect in long data treasuries. tomorrow, we finish up the 119 billion in treasury coupon supply, with the reopening and 30-year bond so 29-year, 11 month to the tune of $22 billion back to you. >> rick, there are a lot of people who pointed to falling oil prices and bond yields, saying these are screaming recession and the fed needs to react. now the cpi report points in the other direction, but what is the feeling from the traders that you talked to about what the declines in bond yields and oil prices mean as to what's happening in the economy >> the traders are all in on the fed put.

they're all in look at what types of trades they're doing and short maturities at the cme. now, once again, we get into the argument, market's wrong, market's right when i clap my hand, whatever the prices are, the market's right. but it doesn't mean that what they're saying today is going to be right down the road i think traders are way over their skis i do believe there's a fed put here, but on the other hand, we have a two-speed economy and i really believe that those who need credit aren't going to benefit much from a quarter or half point, and much more than that is credible i see a stagflation output in slow motion, stabilizing between 2.5% to 3.5% i see growth as a downward trajectory but a long runway >> rick santelli, thank you very much let me get some response from that it does make a big difference whether we get inflation below 2% or stuck in the 2 to 3%

range. what do you think is taking place here >> i think it makes a difference in terms of the credibility of the fed, in terms of consumer welfare being at 2.5% is not that different from being below 2% like we were before the pandemic so i don't think it makes that much difference in the long-term. wages, importantly, i think this is really important, perhaps slightly underappreciated. across the wage distribution, wages sense the start of the pandemic, have outpriced prices. right now, wage inflation is running stronger than price inflation. as long as that continues, you are generating real wage growth, and if job growth is also positive, then you are generating even more real income growth and that's stimulative for the economy, obviously >> if you have a job, in other words, those wages are still quite positive >> most people do, right >> 100%.

we're softening on the margin, does that get more difficult i'll give you the final word, how do you put this into practice in terms of exposure into the market the next few months >> for the next few months, we want to stale with a quality focus, u.s. over international, large caps over mids and smalls. we want to be evenly balanced between stocks and bonds so take a lot of that cash that accumulated and move that into large caps and back into small caps, get that back up towards those long-term strategic weights. why small caps because we think the soft landing is coming. we don't want to run to catch up that's going to be a fast mover when it hits next year in large caps, where do you put the money? let's position for a cyclical recovery we think it will happen next year we've moved into financials, industrials, materials and energy we will be underweight the defensives here. >> that's interesting, betting

on the big cyclical recovery and saying we're going to get a bigger rip in the small caps steve, real quick, last word >> i've been talking about the idea that people should have been thinking about the long end of the curve for a long time now they've got to go in and try to grab, i don't know what it, is 3.65, and they could have had 4.5 or 5% and everybody said stay short so i'm not sure what the play is here, but i just want to say a lot of folks had that play wrong. they could have been clipping 4% and now they're 3.65%. i think you have to watch what's happening. there's a big gap right now, kelly, between the two-year and what the fed funds market is saying i don't know which way it resolves, but somebody has to make some money and somebody is going to lose some money >> that's right. we have overnight rate at 5.5% so that means two full points of cuts are coming or people holding those bonding, i think that's one of the biggest questions in the market.

>> well, hang on, kelly. it's bigger than that. i'm going to -- folks in the back, if you would put up the september 2025 fed funds contract it was trading 2.45 or 2.50, so one year from now, the expectation is that number has a two handle on it i'm sorry, 2.88 right now, kelly. so there is a lot of cutting expected and the two-year seems to be maintaining that yield up near 3.5% so something is wrong here >> imagine buying that at 5, you could have done that april 30th this year. gentlemen, thank you all because of the drop in yields, mortgage rates are almost at a two-year low now diana olick has those details. >> reporter: that's right, kelly. rates dropped 11 basis points after the cpi reportthis morning. the average rate on the 30-year fixed is down to 6.11%, and that's according to mortgage news dalety. it's been falling for six

straight weeks, but demand seems to be waiting to come out of the gate refinance applications only increase 1d% they were 100% higher than a year ago the numbers were so low last year, that even with a large gain, refinancing is still historically low most have rates well below 5%, and nanyone refinancing bought their home in the last two years when rates moved significantly higher applications to buy a home rose just 2% for the week still 3% lower than the same week one year ago, given the high prices of homes and low supply a lot of potential buyers are waiting for the expectation that rates would move much lower. the ceo of toll brothers said on cnbc this morning that he does expect rates to come dow the 5% range, and he said when that happens, you should "look out, because the market should take off." kelly?

>> wow, wouldn't that be nice, but if that pushes prices up further, how much difference does it make 6.25% versus 5.8% >> every time you do a refinance, they look for 75 basis points if you're buying a home, it cannot only make it more affordable for some buyers, but it also makes them qualify for the mortgage remember, mortgage lending is very tight right now a lot of folks think they can afford it, but they don't qualify for that loan at that rate when the rate starts to come down, more buyers qualify for the loan, and more can afford it >> diana, thanks some big changes on the make coming up, tech and communication services are in the green today, but financials are among the worst performing sectors. when we come back, we'll break down the good, the bad, and the ugly in the space with allied

financial failing to rebound plus, no mention of taxing capital gains, tips, or dividends last night during the debate but we have the biggest policy takeaways of what occurred and what both are saying about fighting inflation and tackling the deficit. as we head to break, another check on the stocks with the dow with a 744 point loss. only down 187, and the nasdaq is higher by three quarters of 1% back after this. (♪♪) something amazing is happening here. productivity is growing exponentially. that's because cdw configuration specialists are deploying fleets of microsoft surface devices. built in security, simplified management and flexibility help streamline busy work, which means everyone can get more done. make amazing happen. microsoft and cdw.

welcome back to "the exchange." bank stocks are in the red again today. extending yesterday's declines after commentary from executives first, there was the good. bank of america's ceo saying right here that the consumer is stable and not getting worse right now. but the shares kind of shrugged it off then there was the bad jpmorgan chase coo warning that net interest income next year will be a bit more challenging thanks to expected rate cuts those shares down as much as 7%. then the ugly. the allied financial coo saying their borrowers are now also navigating job market weakness and struggling with inflation, studying concerns of the auto l loans. is this cause for broader credit concerns my next guest joins me now

dan, welcome to you. >> thank you >> first of all, because you sort of are very front and sent we are a lot of these consumer finance names, are you detecting a lot of broad-based weakness right now? >> it's really nteresting. to make the distinction, you know, the lower end you are, the better off you are so what we are seeing for the firm or even upstart, we're seeing them doing better now than the more prime consumer so this is more id iodioc syndemocratic really >> that is interesting and surprising you think the thin tech players with exposure to the lower income consumer are doing better >> i know it's counterintuitive, but subprime is the place to be. what happened with upstart is the best example the low-end consumer spent

beyond their means, and now that they have pulled back, they're paying back loans. so it's more about paying your loans on time that lowers delinquencies. that slows down the macro but good for the borrow. the prime consumers are experiencing the same thing that the subprime consumers experienced six months ago that's the disconnect you are seeing so that's the time to buy affirm, because there's a disconnect in the delinquencies. >> this is surprising on a number of levels but it's more of a prime consumer who is now feeling the pinch, and what is that from, the slowing job market >> it has to do more with the behavior of the consumer so the low-end consumer depleted their savings, you know, 6 to 12 months ago and started pulling back on spend. they spent more rationally i think what we are seeing now is the more prime consumer is

seeing the same thing. obviously, jobs are not helping, but the job market is still pretty tight it's more about behavior than any outside forces >> keeping this in mind, what do you do with the stocks i hear this and think none of it sounds great maybe you see it differently >> i see this differently. they are going to be gap profitable by the end of next year, and if you get nine cuts -- >> is there going to be usage of the platform, if the lower income sort of user of that platform is under pressure and has exhausted excess savings and paying down debt, are they going to be leaning back on that platform in times oh of a pinch? >> my interpretation is, there could be a countercyclical thing here, because if you run out of credit card savings, you might go to buy now, pay later and buy something there. we don't know yet, because we haven't been through a real

recession, but there could be a countercyclical steering towards that, which can help companies that can underwrite really well, like affirm. >> even if that means a year or two after that search of demand, there is a spade of defaults or maybe by that time we're on the rebound or something >> and lower borrowing costs and they can open the credit box because of that if we get into that environment but that countercyclical thing, we have never seen that. but i think there's a good chance we might see that >> so affirm, which is up 5% today by the way, seems to be moving kind of to your point, up 66% in the past year what else do you want exposure to or want to avoid if this is going to be the trend? >> if this is going to be the trend, affirm upstart, for example, is the quintessential subprime borrower space. sofi is the last talk in the fin tech consumer universe that hasn't worked because there's a lot of prejudice, a lot of

people hate it for no other reason because they have hated it forever it's going to behave in the exact same way that affirm and upstart behave, it will just take one or two more quarters. >> you don't think sofi is more exposed to the subprime client >> they are. they told you they're not actually lending as much money this year as they did. so basically, they're in their guidance, you're not going to get as much personnel loan growth this year so if things are better than expected, it's all pure incremental. >> subprime is the place to be, not the headline i expected. we'll see how it pans out. dan, thanks for your time. affirm's ceo will be on "fast nony" later today. coming up, less than a month away from tesla's robo taxi event. elon musk said it will be their

most significant moment since unveiling the model 3. we'll get some new stats on safety, that's next in "tech check.

when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures... (gasp) you need weathertech. [hot dog splat.] laser measured floorliners front and rear. [drink slurp and splat.] (scream) seat protector to save the seats. [honk!] they're all yours! we're here! hey, i knew you were comin'... so i weatherteched the car! can we get ice cream? we can now. kid proof your vehicle with american made products at weathertech.com. meet kandi technologies, where innovative, eco friendly design meets exceptional performance. with officially licensed nfl team edition golf carts exclusively available at lowe's. elevate your ride and explore electric investment opportunities. kandi technologies.

good day, everybody. welcome back to "the exchange. i'm tyler mathisen with your cnbc news update secretary of state antony blinken announced over $700 million in aid for ukraine's energy grid, he said the aid would provide humanitarian support and pay for de-mining operations election officials nationwide are warning that issues with the postal service could disrupt voting officials said over the past year, local election officials received mailed ballots that were postmarked on time days after the deadline to be counted, and properly addressed election mail was being returned as undeliverable the postal service did not immediately respond. joe biden approved an emergency declaration for louisiana, which makes federal disaster assistance available for the state. ahead of hurricane francine's

impending landfall later today the national weather service is forecasting life threatening storm surge in louisiana kelly, back to you >> tyler, thanks the race to the perfect robo taxi is on, as waymo raises standards with a safety dash board. deidre bosa has all the details. deidre >> reporter: so, kelly, there's still a lot of skepticism around robo taxis, and to be fair, there's been a few high profile accidents that have scared some away but this new report makes the case that its vehicles are safer than human drivers, and also shows that waymo is expanding extremely quickly, whether you like it or not more than 22 million rider only miles have been driven through june of this year, that is more than tripling in just eight

months the safety website uses a formula that compares its driverless vehicles to benchmarks and shows they're safer in almost every category it reminds me of when uber came out with a safety report to reassure the public about ride share. i lyft shortly after the headline was a disclosure of more than 3,000 sexual assaults reported over a year of ride shares obviously, that's not a problem for a vehicle with no driver at all. riders don't need to worry about assault or any of the smaller stuff like tipping and smells. waymo says it's safer from an accident point of view and backs it up with data. one analysis concludes that it's human drivers to blame for the most serious collisions, because all those collisions have to get reported but measured in different ways so if this is the start of more safety data around robo taxis from not just waymo but from tesla and other competitors that are arguably further along, the

shift to a driverless world could shift faster, and raises the stakes for whatever tesla rolls out. >> i don't know if you can retell the story of 2024 where we went from thinking with the accident i think it was with cruise, that this technology was not ready, to suddenly having waymo being yubiquitous, and soe parents on the west coast think maybe i wouldn't mind the idea of my mind going to school in a waymo in the not too distant future >> because it solves that driver problem. you may not trust a human driver, but how much do you trust a driverless taxi? the incident you're referring to with cruise, it was very bad a pedestrian was struck by another car and dragged by an autonomous vehicle from cruise that scared a lot of people away this is somewhat anecdotanecdot, because we don't have the same kind of safety figures we had.

i rode in both of them about a year ago, and i felt a lot safer in the waymo than i did the cruise since that incident, cruise suspended all of its riding. it's slowly coming back online, but there's a major delta between waymo and everyone else. that's what tesla is going to have to contend with i was speaking to someone in the industry before i came here to the communicopia, who was say thing's some smaller names making some major strides and advancements that we haven't heard about that we will hear more about in the future >> i think it sounds like another installment of "tech check" and it putspressure on uber to figure out if it's ready. if it works out, it could be great for its business deidre, thanks for now >> the whole idea for the ride sharing is that uber is partnering with a lot of these companies. it has a partnership with waymo,

but that rests on the fact that people will go to uber to book their robo taxis i use them all the time now in san francisco and i go through the waymo app. >> deidre, thank you very much deidre bosa. coming up, stagwell is out with the latest political ad spending numbers the digital marketing firm reporting $4.5 billion in ads have been placed across linear tv, connected tv and social media so far and it expects to see another $7 billion worth placed between now and election day we'll look at both candidate's policy ppolsrosa and the impact to investors next on "the exchange." at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward

for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot. max makes construction faster, safer and more cost effective than ever before. and with max doing the heavy lifting, even more people can join the team. solar energy is changing the world, aes is changing the world of solar.

his plan is to do what he has done before, provide a tax cut for billionaires and big corporations, which will result $5 trillion to america's deficit. he has a plan i call the trump's sales tax, which would be a 20% tax on everyday goods that you rely on to get through the month. >> we have inflation like very few people have ever seen

before probably the worst in our nation's history we were at 21%, but that's been generous, because many things are 50%, 60%, 70% higher than they were a few years ago. this has been a disaster for people >> that, of course, was kamala harris and former president donald trump sparring on the economy at the start of last night's debate we heard about taxes, tariffs, inflation, the deficit and housing to name a few. our next guest is more concerned about what we didn't hear. joining me now is the founding partner at capital alpha great to have you here what didn't you hear that you wanted to? >> kelly, great to be back i wanted to hear more about corporate taxes. harris has adopted the biden program from the treasury department program earlier this year, $5 trillion of tax increases, including major tax increases on corporations and on wealthy individuals. the capital gains tax, for instance

none of that was questioned. none of that was brought up. the impact of a massive corporate tax increase was never addressed. >> i can't imaginethat trump was thinking, now is the time to talk about, you know, massive corporate tax cuts is that a line that resonates when you're trying to just drive turnout and energy -- maybe it does, but it feels like we would talk about potentially >> it showed that trump had no strategy, he had no purpose to be there i think that was really the problem last night he was extremely reactive, and followed harris' goading down any number of rabbit holes he really didn't make a case that the country may be going into recession and we need powerful economic policy to support future growth. as far as her tax cuts go, you know, the $50,000 deduction for starting up a small business, guess what all of that stuff, all those startup expenses are already tax

deductible, as far as section 71, or bonus depreciation. it's a tax cut that does nothing, and yet harris was the tax cutter in the debate last night. >> interesting what else did you not hear, or what do you think was under the radar but may prove consequential? >> well, not a lot of discussion about how 15% tax rate would work on the capital gains, harris has take an more moderate position from biden in that she favors 28% top rate, and 35% -- or 33% all-in rate. but her proposal apparently also includes the elimination of the so-called steppen basis, when you inherit a farm or a family business, and the transfer of that business to you is not considered a taxable event unless it is an estate or business large enough to be

captured by the estate tax so, that basis is a big issue for family farms, for small businesses it's why the, you know, last time congress considered it, it never moved forward. so we didn't hear about that didn't get a lot of details about the tariffs. you didn't hear about president trump's idea for his own universal baseline tariff, which i don't think is going anywhere. >> maybe we can host an important version of the debate and get into all of these issues, which are niche but big movers on the margin stick around, i want to use this to launch into the next piece of this, which is the potential government shutdown in the fight that's brewing there house speaker mike johnson canceled a planned vote on the stop-gap funding bill that would have kept the government funded for the next six months. emily, a big part of this fight is over the save act that a lot of people want to see passed

before election day, but yet are willing to say no to continued funding, even if they support it so any way >> reporter: no, kelly, the whole government shutdown debate is really off to a rocky start yes, you nailed it here. speaker mike johnson's initial plan is that he was going to combine this six-month-long stop gap, taking it to march and add this requirement for citizenship i.d. if you are registering to vote look, republicans really like the voter i.d. piece of it, but there were a lot of concerns, especially within the republican party what does it mean to fund the government at current levels until march? a number of republicans said our pentagon, the defense cannot wait until march of next year to get the funding. listen to what mike johnson said his priorities are going to be coming up for the next week, though >> we have two obligations right now. congress has a lot of responsibilities but two primary obligations. responsibly fund the government

and make sure that our elections are free, fair, and secure that's what we are working on. >> reporter: johnson said that he will be working with members throughout this week and into next to try to build consensus at the sam point, democrats have been pushing a shorter stop gap measure, they want something that can go three months that takes us past the election but brings us before next year democrats want this funding in place before the next administration takes over. former president donald trump also entered into the mix. he posted on truth social urging republicans to basically keep that cr, saying that if they don't get absolute ainsurances on election security, they should in no way, shape, or forward go with a continuing resolution on the budget and close it down, referring to the government the good news here is that lawmakers do have time, even after this sort of rough back and forth today and the last-minute canceling of a vote. they still have more than two weeks to figure out how to fund

the government it is a very long time up on capitol hill kelly? >> emily, thank you. james, i'll turn back to you my understanding is they can learn about five votes it's a narrow margin, so those who don't like the continued resolution for fiscal reasons, then you have those that want different priorities on the immigration, the tightening of who can vote in the elections. how are they going to keep -- to avoid a shutdown and potentially pass that bill and get home in time to be on the campaign trail the last couple of weeks >> the fact is that everyone knows there will not be a s six-month cr everyone knows the safe act is probably not going to pass this time around. everyone knows that we need a three-month cr to wrap it up to clear the deck for the next administration, which even after last night's debate, might be a trump administration the problem is that there is a certain number of angry lunatics that you need to appease by

pretending to pay attention to them, and you've got to listen to them, show that they're taking their proposal seriously. but entertaining a six-month cr of the safe act is just a way of kind of preemptively making sure that these people won't disrupt the process later on what is if they do why go along with it if they know they hold the power >> well, they do hold the power. they are the marginal vote, but i think most of them are happy, given the fact that they have been listened to, they have done their tweets, they've done their fund-raising, they've made their media appearances. ultimately, they come under pressure from their colleagues just to get the work done. the fact is that if president trump is elected, he's going to need a lot of floor time in the early part of next year to get his tax agenda through and he can't do it if he's still working on appropriations bills from last year >> there's no way it's going to be six months and no way that

the save act gets through, which sets up a host of other debates in the next few weeks with congressman in the public over the significance of that james, thank you for your analysis >> thank you by the way, republican vice presidential candidate jd vance will be on "squawk box" tomorrow morning at 7:45 a.m. you will want to tune in coming up, ubs unveiling its top tech picks for the fourth quarter, including a chipmaker that's not nvidia. dell and spotify are higher today. we'll have a check on some of today's other movers, next you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing

benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. plus, with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan you'll get other important benefits. all of these plans include dental coverage. with two free cleanings a year. plus, fillings, and a yearly exam. vision coverage, including eye exams and a yearly allowance for eye wear. and hearing benefits. including routine hearing exams and

coverage toward hearing aids. you'll also get free rides to and from medical appointments. best of all, you'll pay nothing for covered prescriptions, even brand name ones, all year long. and zero dollars for many routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. plus, you'll have access to humana's large networks of doctors and specialists. so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that will give you extra benefits, including an allowance to help pay for essentials. plus, no-cost for covered prescriptions. and coverage for routine dental, vision and hearing. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. and, if you're eligible, help you enroll over the phone. it's that easy! call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't.

car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com ♪

wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked and inconvenient injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly. from lexarias, patented oral delivery technology trials. lexaria bioscience, transforming the future of glp-1 drug delivery. versabank is a fully digital, cloud based bank embarking on a transformational opportunity in the united states. we recently closed the purchase of a u.s. bank, which gives us full access to the u.s. market. that's very exciting for us because now we can launch our receivable purchase program fully in the united states. what we developed it in canada, and it was very, very popular. as far as we know. there's nothing else like it in the united states.

welcome back consumers may be cheering cooling inflation overall, but travel airfares broke a five-month streak of declines, while lodging away from home was up 2% after a fractional gain in

july my next guest recently downgraded booking holdings, seeing headwinds even if the economy has a nice solve landing. john is here, an analyst at jeffrey. good to see you. why are these not best of times for booking? >> i think it's all about consensus. what we believe is that the numbers are simply too high. the street's modeling in the same amount of growth an in, so no deceleration in room night growth that's despite our outlook to see growth roughly cut in half so there's sort of a growing differential between the trajectory of bookings growth, at least modelled by consensus, and with the stock trading at the ten-year average, we don't think it's pricing in that risk. >> that makes sense.

even when i hear this specific case, i think earning estimates will go higher next year, but maybe not in this sector >> yeah, think about the travel sector we had the pandemic. that drove pent-up demand over a multi-year period, and the unlock of that demand and recovery of the travel industry drove elevated levels of growth for the past three years what we're seeing is effectively a normalization of that growth i don't think that consensus numbers have quite caught up to the deceleration we could see over the next few years. >> is this ton expected in a number of industries have gone through this transition. the numbers are declining, it doesn't mean the businesses are fundamentally in trouble so what do you think booking should be trading for in a normalized environment

what is the earnings power >> yeah, this is still a very high quality business that's going to gain share over time. this year, we expect across the globe ex-china, for room nights to grow 4.7% in 2026, we expect growth of around 2.5%. so booking will grow faster than the broader travel market. think of this business as sort of a mid to high single-digit bookings growers, with some market expansion, and a lot of free cash flow that they can use for share repurchasing we think it can still deliver for the foreseeable future that being said, if there's down side to room nights, it flowing through down the p&l, and hits every single component of profitability. >> what is your expectation for the travel sector? is it going through a soft landing? a recession?

you know, a reset? how should we think about it for the next couple years? >> i think it's a bit too early to know for sure i think you're starting to see some commentary from the hotel chains, from the otas, that suggests some indication of softening. i think just because of how early it is, it's hard to know whether that's just the normalization of growth, or whether that is the flow-through of some softening of the consumer that we have seen in some of the lower income cohorts. >> right. >> i think maybe one theme that's been consistent throughout my entire coverage, is the higher-income consumer, the luxury side of things continues to move along very well it's sort of the lower end where we're starting to see some weakness, so our broader recommendation across our coverage is you want to be aligned with companies that have

a consumer skew towards the higher income. >> absolutely. it's not a new think, but truer than ever. john, thank you for joining us today. the s&p has gone positive. i'll join tiler for "power lunch" on the other side of this break. are often paused. citi's seamlessly connected banking, markets and services businesses, deliver global financial solutions. so our client can keep investing in innovations for patients around the world. without pause. for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress.

(♪♪) in life, i'm reminded that it's not about the destination. it is truly about the journey. (cheering) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) (♪♪) float ♪ welcome to