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the stocks have made a big turn around it was to me a pretty good report, but the market, as it often does, became a big nitpicker here to me. >> we were down more than 500 points in immediate reaction thinking the economy can't handle that -- >> who thought 50 was ever the base case? >> not many. only about a one in three chance, but that's completely gone away. >> now the s&p and nasdaq have gone positive. >> it's been a very interesting morning after debate maybe we'll gel to more on that. i'll just state my opinion i know i know -- i know that critics thinks harris won.

number one, i don't think trump supporters care what the critics think, and the think harris' answer on the economy was a swing and a miss we'll get into that more. financials are one of the worth performers straight much when data was released, back down, and rising gradually. more on that when we talk to rick santelli later this hour. we're going to look into that. major averaging well off the lows the dow on pace for the fourth straight downday. tom porselli is here, dom chu is

also here with us. >> so the stage is exactly what kelly had pointed out. there was the possibility -- first of all a 100% chance that there would be a cut next week the issue was whether this would be a quarter point or full half-point cut there's a whole debate whether the half-point cut would signal something about the economy. though still generally positive, but a mixed report this morning, slightly hotter than expected inflation -- >> core inflation. >> on a month-over-month basis came in one tenth of a percent point. >> nitpickers. >> fair enough. >> real quickly, you do -- it does have a -- >> there's a cumulative effect

if you're extrapolating the year over year, you know, what happened was the interest rate markets had priced in the 65/35 odds of a 25 basis point versus a 50 basis point a slight her hotter than expected read, might be mean the half point is not justified. you can only safely go a quarter point and you have to rework your models to where you think they're supposed to go. on a for a after friday. i think you needed a week jobs report to usher in a 50. >> you're preaching to the choir. i think they're supposed to go

50. >> there's no way they will. this is the whole idiom. i would love for them to go 50 >> isn't the core minus food, minus energy, both of which with flat to down, and shelter. >> yes. >> shelter would be out of the super-core >> it was reflecting the shelter component, which remains the stickiest part of inflation, am i not correct? >> absolutely correct. it's almost always the case that shelter is i love that you mentioned super core.

>> i actually don't like super core you're effectively, and that 50 percent is deflating, so i don't know why you would -- >> i think that's the question up to this point. >> here to me is the right way of thinking about it if you're just station out headline cpi and you strip shelter out of both of those, that will give you your underlying sense when you look at that, get where they're running ought. >> it's 1.2% >> keith, you've been noddic your head a lot, go ahead, what do you want to say >> i file like a bottle head

people are trying to overthink the unthinkable. to me it comes down to a litmus test when you see people pull out a wallet, do they have brand needs or desire needs? they're still doing the latter it's all about the wallet. >> what down if he get the isn't it already baked in? >> no, it's not, actually, tyler. you have to go to tom's point here what should they do versus what are they going to do my personal take, i think there's an outside chance that powell does nothing, because the data about which he's being vigilant don't continue to perform the way he wants to me, i think the market, demonstrates that traders have not yet made up their mind

which they got data they didn't like, they, to dominic's point, they had to rejigger all of those models >> i would also pint a point on the shelter side of things for the cpi, it's a very large component. it's just shelter, there are already signs in the coming months and quarters, you will start to see downward pressure on some of those shelter costs even with interest rails declining, there are signs pointing to a deflationary pressure on shelter and housing costs if you go into the first half of into into the third quarter of 2025. >> i will just layer, look at what's happening with the mortgage rates the mortgage rate is about 6.1, 6.2, if that puts upward pressure on home prices, does it continue to stymie that narrative?

>> well, i can -- i think you can take the other side of that. you can wonder, if you do cut rates, does it allow inventory to come back into the market and bring prices down. >> there's one other point that hasn't been discussed. if you sell your house or restructure -- what do you replace it with? people are you sitting on what they've got, no matter what it is >> that's true that's a big part of it. shall we dive into some of the movest post-debate last night? dom, in fact, we spoke briefly about the clean energy sectors i don't know if that's the whole story. they're telling me the whole market weakness was the increase of harris -- i'm not talk -- rates going to 28%, selling some of the winners like insurance

here to date. >> i think there's a lot of them you can't put a single factor model into any of these price moves. many of these clean energy plays have been so beating up over the course of the last several months, it could be any kind of a release rally. and covering those bets. any number of things if you take a look at some of the hot spots out there. there's no doubt within the s&p 500 it has been the business case here, clean energy type of stocks if you look at the up side, it's enphase energy, sun run, other solar energy plays albermalle if you take a direct corollary on what happened last night is trump media and technology shares they've taken a big hit. truth social, majority owned by the former president, is stashing to see incremental or

relative downside moves. >> when does he lockup end on this very soon. >> it's not just that as well, but the prevailing narrative whether or not, again from a valuation standpoint, traders are rejiggering their assumptions into the model >> bitcoin and crypto prices overall, we know the former president has been an outspoken opponent of cryos, it does take perhaps some of the shine off the cryptocurrency prices, so you're seeing some of that move as well. >> september 19th is the end of the lockup the question is how much, if any, if he sells if he sells a big slug of it, that the be a downward pressure and a lot of supporters who put money in, will there and then see that they have lost money.

keith, let me turn to you. in light of the debate last night, do you do anything different in do you watch this and go, maybe i should lighten up here, and put more there? is the debate not a relevant marker for you >> that's an interesting question it's not really a relevant marker on anything, but what i'm looking for, you know, if you imagine being herschel walker playing football, one of the reasons he was so successful, he could spot openings and plow through them i look at events around politics, do they create openings and if so, i'm going to spring into action, but today, not so much, it's the able names that i'm attracted to >> keith, you've got some nvidia capital gains, if i'm not mistaken, what is it -- currently 20%.

let's thing on the margins, you may put it out would that make you think about selling it before year end >> no, here's why. this is financial heresy, but to me if i have to pang taxes, it means i've had a good year i don't worry about that i focus on the growth, will is the company on task, on focus, on mission there's always mitigation strategies, you can manage that with a good tax professional, but definitely something i think about when i get down the road. >> i like that >> love that >> thank you all i appreciate your time today >> no nitpickers here. >> geeks and fnerds. steve? >> thanks, the federal reserve inspector general is out of

investigation on the rafael both bothic, finding that bosstic violated rules on trading during the blackout period, financial disclosures, and prohibitive holtings there's no evidence that bostic used confidential information to make the trades, and they did not find specific conflicts of interest they did verify his claim he relied on third-party managed accounts this came out in 2022, whether these charges were originally made he was not aware of what the third party was doing, the i.g. finding that bostic was nevertheless responsible for ensuring the trades complied with the rules the ig said he had the appearance of interest the investigation is now closed, and they're referring this

matter to the board for any further action >> quickly, steve, on this, is he a current voting member does this affect anything about the composition, the vote, the make of next week's decision or the near term? >> i don't believe so. i'm just double checking that. i should have checked that before i got on. i don't believe le is a voteser this year, but it dison what the board does it depends on what the board does. >> have there been historical correlates here? >> i don't know of another case like this, tyler i think there's still open investigations against robert kaplan there was a similar issue with

eric rosengran, but he had already left the board at that time. >> he is a voting members there year >> interesting he'll be at the center of all the activity next week after the break, we're going to dive into the inflation data, because, why not how prices have changed for everything, maybe more particularly building materials, lumber and more. "power lunch" will be right back

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has been to the markets and consumers, we wanted to bring the data a bit closer to home. over the next couple days, we're going to zoom into each part of your home, breaking down how inflation has impacted each particular section today, we look at materials. stocks like vulcan, masco, marietta lumber is up nearly 4% in a month. however, those prices are down nearly 8% year over year here to discussing further, phillip eng. good to have you with us >> thanks for having me. >> where are we seeing the largest increases in inflation as it impacts the home and home prices. >> tyler, what i think is interesting about this cycle, and frankly housing starts have

been choppy, home prices have held up remarkably well, and frankly most of the categories have been firm we have seen some air pockets in lumber, some of the more commodity-centric areas. and some of the companies we cover, or as a rule gan, and others levered toward the aggregates, pricing has been strong aggregates is one of to say category that's up year over year that's tied to infrastructure. you have this big infrastructure bill that's kind of humming through, to enhance the pricing power of the industry. >> we mentioned martin marietta as one of the home-related stocks what is their niche? >> sure. they're on the heavy materials side

a good chunk of what they do is aggregate. it's the material that's used to build a foundation of a home. >> okay. >> but also for highways, bridges, public infrastructure side, along with some of these megaprojects you've talked about. so construction broadly. >> as you're talking, i think some of these stocks you like have some up side. this is an area that a lot of institutional investors have to be careful, but for retail, maybe it's an opportunity. where do you see the biggest up side in the coming months? >> we feel pretty good here. certainly we're going through a period of digestion, because rates were quite healthy but when we look out to 2025, we feel great one, the housing market has massively underbuilt we have a wave of young people buying homes existing home sales are at a historic low

all of these consumers with a mortgage, rates are down below 5%, so not surprisingly, when you see rates come down, that's a driver to improve affordability. that could drum up construction activity on new construction sites, so recovering, mohawk and others have exposure to a recovery in r & r going forward. >> lumber, will you see that >> a lot of lumber is diy, so when you see existing home sales recover, that would be helpful as a catalyst. that could be more of a 2025, mid-2025 event the market is certainly trying

to price in a rate cut cycle and what that could mean broadly >> phillip ng, thank you. after the break, tracking the treasuries we'll explore remo in "market navigator" next. ve both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all these plans include a healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items like vitamins, pain relievers, first-aid supplies and more. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. other benefits on

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welcome back to "power lunch. the s&p 500 has now turned positive on the session, while the nasdaq is up 1.2%, dow slightly lower after this morning cpi's numbers suggested the fed make don't a quarter point. >> you mentioned the morning cpi data throwing equities markets for a bit of a loop, though they're trying to recover now. today is tracking treasuries he says that, while the inflation data was good for the fed overall, it's bad for some of the treasury note holders themselves joining us is scott nations, president of the nations in

indices. scott, i wonder if this is one of the trades that involved treasuries, as many retail investigators would, but many retail investigators, use the futures market to take a viewo this what is the trade, given the cpi print today? >> right dom, the trade is to sell you ten-year futures at 115, 16. we're a bit below that, but we were above that level. once we're in the trade and short is 111.24, halfway back from the april low to the recent high we're always going to trade these with a stop, dom, and that's 116 even, though i will lower that stop once it's in the trade and continuing to work we would be risking 500 to make

$3750. cpi now puts the fed in no-man's-land to a certain degree chair powell wanted a cut by 50 basis points a few weeks ago, now the market doesn't think that's possible. today, they're just 15% likely hood that the fed will cut by 50 basis points this is generally good this means the fed will do something that's nearly impossible, they'll stick a soft landing, but it's not good if you own fixed income you're going to have to come to grips with the fact that you're only going to get 25 basis points rather than 50 i'm not the world's biggest fan, but if we closelower on the day, that's going to be a key

reversal to the down side. that's never good for price action. >> scott, if i can ask a question, what are you implies by all of this that the direction for yields will be >> i think it's going to have to be higher, because so many people have piled into the concept that yields were going to come down precipitously and that made a lot of sense chairman powell sounded very, very dovish a few weeks ago. the market has just come to the conclusion that they're not going to be able to cut by 50 basis points, they'll cut by 25, but the being here is the ten-year treasury futures have not responded to the new reality. >> scott nations, thank you very much for the treasury trade there. ke kelly, i would point out there's those traders who look toward the futurist price for treasuries as a possible indicator for what the make roe

economy will trade so you don't know if it's an indication of perhaps better than expected growth/higher expected inflation. >> could be the good kind, bad kind of yields backups there's still in huge gap between shorter-term yieldsened and where it's expected to be. so this has to be rectified one way or another there's these gaps in the market that don't quite make sense. >> dom, thanks. tyler. >> coming up, kell, we will break do you ceos' comments and the trade in stocks, next. (cheerful music) (phone ringing) [narrator] not all multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have...

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the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. welcome back to "power lunch. it's time for today's "three stock lunch.

we're looking at three names making moves with their ceos speaking today got to start with the financials after what we heard yesterday to the down side, we heard from goldman sachs. the ceo, david solomon joining cnbc earlier today here's what he said about the consumer. >> relatively speaking, relatively benines, consumer is still healthy. there were some pockets of softness i think in particular, when you look at consumers in the lower part of the economic strata, because of the inflation and the cumulative increase in prices, they're feeling more pressure. and you're seeing that in some places generally speaking, i found the ceo/cfo set at this conference quite constructive david trainer, welcome to you. what do you think about the

stock here >> goldman stacks is one of our favorite financials. having been on wall street my self-, goldman was general the top of the pecking order their profits continue to reflect that, and we continue to be constructive on this stock. it's still relatively cheap. >> and let's move on to another one, invinna jensen huang weighing in on the latest generation of chips, saying the scramble for his company's products has frustrated customers and raised tensions. >> demand is so great that delivery of our components and our technology and infrastructure and software is really emotional for people. it directly affects their revenues and competitiveness, so we probably have more emotional

customers today than -- and deservedly so. if we could fulfill everybody's needs, the emotion would go away, but it's very emotional, really tense, we have a lot of response, and we're tryingto d the best we can. >> that sound likes that demand is outstripping their able to supply is that a problem or an opportunity? >> i think both. there's an enormous amount of capital into the ai space, and, look, nvidia is a great company. high returns on capital, ten times what even goldman sachs is but the expectations baked in the stock price have more than that baked in. when we run the numbers, we just did a big case study on nvidia the stock price impliesed that the profit will be something

like ten times bigger than apple or microsoft combined today. the revenues will be bigger than the gdp of the uk. so we're talking about a stock that has all that good news priced in. nvidia has become a popular and crowded trade. i don't think investors should be priced that maybe all the good news is priced in we called the top in the symptom a couple weeks ago, and it turned out to be we think this stock has more down side risk. >> so that's a sell. >> yes it's almost a short, but i don't know that you would dare with a name like nvidia. toll brothers is on the decline today. ceo doug yearly was weighing in on that. >> the builders have done so well with high rates we've got dousing on 7 to 8%

rates for two years, finally they're in the low 6s. that's when the builders sell more houses. the afford ability all changes >> i wonder if that takes away their competitive edge, though maybe their competition heats up >> we like this stock. we've been constructive with a bunch of home builders for a while. dr hotten has been one of our top in focus and, you know, look, the supply/demand outlook for these businesses is really strong. there's too little supply. we need to build more homes. the best builders, the really profitability companies we think to be in a position, and their stock is priced as if there's no profit growth.

the current stock price implies -- the opposite kind of, with nvidia. toll brothers implies zero profit growth from current levels we like the fact that it's profitable, yet the valuation implies there would be no profit growth so that's good risk/reward for us and it's really becoming increasingly difficult to find stocks we like in this good environment. tyler always gives me a hard time, it's always sell, sell, sell >> i don't know in fads a contrarian in and of itself? i'm kidding [ laughter ] thank you for your time, david bertha coombs has a news update >> the probe into dr. larry nassar's investigation has been closed

the ag said today she found no fulfilling answers as to how his abias was able to go on for so long desean watson issued a statement day, history says he strongly denies the allegations while the matter works its way through the courts the nfl said yesterday it is reviewing the claims that watson forced himself on a woman. watson was previously suspended 11 games by the league in 2022 over separate accusations of sexual assault during a massage therapy sessions and a spacecraft carrying an american astronaut and two russian com mo knots took off from kazakhstan today, heading to the international space state. they'll spend six months aboard the iss. the capsule is expected to dock

within the hour. i have to wonder if they're bringing extra supplies for the two astronauts that have been stuck there? >> and can that capsule shuttle some of those people back? who knows. bertha, thank you very much. let's talk about the dow it's turned positive. >> wow, look at that. what was it 500 points >> more. >> they bounced back from the post-cpi sell-off. we'll follow that story and more when "power lunch" returns in two minutes.

meet kandi technologies, where innovative, eco friendly design meets exceptional performance. our diverse portfolio includes utvs, go carts, golf carts and e-bikes. explore electric investment opportunities. kandi technologies. welcome back to "power lunch," everybody. a check on the markets right now, because the dow is positive, up 38 points it had been down, believe it or not, 742 points, back below 40,000, as investors worried

whether the cpi would keep the fed from cutting aggressively next week. that cpi number, the core, a bit higher than expected. american express helping to lead the dow's comeback, the cfo speaking at a conference this morning, saying the consumer continues to be stable, even in this slow growth environment. >> and the nasdaq is turning higher this afternoon. it's now up 1.a% nigh gains to a.r.m., and nvidia up 6%, a.r.m. up eight we'll get more on the bond reaction from rick santelli in just a moment. 366 is the latest read there remember, to grab that podcast on any platform you listen to. don't miss a show or a moment. we'll be back right after this

amelia, unlock the door. i'm afraid i can't do that, jen. ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ why not? did you forget something? ♪ (suspenseful music) ♪ my protein shake. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. you're so dramatic amelia. bye jen. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

welcome back to "power lunch. big moves in the bond market after the cpi this morning, we had the ten-year auction rick, we focus on the ten-year,

but the two-year is also getting a lot of attention lately as well. >> absolutely. the yield curve is wiggling around maybe it actually invertebrae again. when you look at how much movement we've had, let's talk to the expert here this is bhatia he is with new burger berman and what were your thoughts? >> one is inflation is still coming down, but at a slower pace and i think one implication of this is the fed's less likely to go 50 and you're seeing that in some of the movement in two-year yields today. the second thing related to it, it is still setting up the fed for the beginning of the campaign the number was higher than expected, but some of the internals about housing prices and what really drove it, i think will give the fed comfort. >> they were looking for comfort nine months, ten months ago, but inflation in the chart for year

over year is going sideways around the 3% level and, once again, we've made a huge amount of progress. target 2%. we were below 2% when we were with no tightening now we're above it, half a point, three-quarters of a point, we're looking through it. is that wise is there a credibility >> it is a great point the big fall in inflation that we've had so far, that's over, right? we're at 3.2 probably around 2.9 at year end, probably thlow 2s next year it will be harder to get out of the system and why the fed will have to calibrate the easing a little bit >> today is a very important day, we got to see a glimpse of market movement after cpi, post debate last night, politics is getting bigger what happened? rates spiked, the market dropped like a rock. then you had the 10-year auction and rates reversed now you have rates higher and

you have stocks, the dow just turned green explain all of that volatility >> i think you referenced the election, and the election is starting to creep in to prices and it will only creep in more we hear about the tax policies, the spending policies, these debates will only go up for the wond bond market. we are getting closer. we have a fed meeting coming up and we're going to reach a decision about what they do and how much they go the bond market is fully priced talking about before we started, the fed's price for 100 basis points of easing, it's priced to get down to 280. there's a lot in the bond market already. >> as i always debate everybody, the market is always right in the moment, okay you could write a check right now but it doesn't mean in three months or two months or six months that what we're looking at in market predictability will be accurate. >> yeah, and i think there's a big decision point about fiscal policy, and one of our views is

keep an eye out. it will change one way or the other the next 12 months the path we take >> we're making promises of things we're going to do i don't know where we're going to get the money, but i totally agree with you tyler, back to you ashok, thank you >> gentlemen, thank you. still ahead, the apple of his eye, one of the very first computers ever built by steve jobs selling for a record amount at auction we'll get a live report next hi, my name is damian clark. and if you have both medicare and medicaid, i have some really encouraging news that you'll definitely want to hear. depending on the plans available in

your area, you may be eligible to get extra benefits with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. all these plans include a healthy options allowance. a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent, and over-the-counter items like vitamins, pain relievers, first-aid supplies and more. the healthy options allowance is loaded onto a prepaid card each month. and whatever you don't spend, carries over from each month. other benefits on these plans include free rides to and from your medical appointments. you pay nothing for covered prescriptions, all year long. all plans have dental coverage which includes 2 free cleanings a year, fillings, and a yearly exam. they also have vision coverage including vision exams and a yearly allowance towards eyewear such as lenses or contacts. and hearing coverage, which includes routine hearing tests and coverage for hearing aids. you'll also have a $0

copay for the shingles and other routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. plus, your doctor, hospital and pharmacy may already be part of our large humana networks. so, call the number on your screen now to speak with a licensed humana sales agent. wouldn't you love benefits like a monthly allowance to help pay for eligible groceries, utilities, rent and over-the-counter items? so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call the number on your screen now and speak with a licensed humana sales agent. if you're eligible, they can even help enroll you over the phone in a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. so, call now. humana. a more human way to healthcare.

welcome back to "power lunch. we've been talking a lot today about the prices consumers are paying for things because of the cpi. well, luckily computers once used by steve jobs is not a

component, because robert frank is here with the eye-popping amount it is now worth >> we would have high inflation if it was, kelly it was one of only 200 of the first apple computers that was hand built by steve wozniak, only one of 70 that still exists, and this is the only one that came from the desk of steve jobs christie's selling the steve jobs' apple-1 for $945,000, way above the low estimate and a record for any vintage computer. when steve jobs was fired, that was the first time, an employee retrieved it from his desk, it was then sold to paul allen, the co-founder of microsoft, of course he displayed it in his technology museum. paul allen's estate was the seller through christie's. allen's estate during that action sold a supercomputer for a million bucks. >> look at the size of that thing. >> you could use it as a sofa.

>> he sold a letter from fdr, that letter selling for $3.9 million. and a lunch menu from "the titanic," april 14, 1912, the day the ship hit an iceberg. that menu selling for $340,000 that was six times the estimate. for more on what collectibles the wealthy are buying, how they're investing, how they're spending, go to inside wealth at cnbc.com >> that computer was the size of a wardrobe >> and did 1/1,000th i looked that apple-1 computer it had 4 killobytes. it is now 4 million times more powerful than that apple-1 a lot of the wealthy made their money in tech. for them that is the holy grail in their world to have one of

the wozniak-built computers that was on the desk of steve jobs as all these tech wealthy start to collect, they love these vintage computers, these pieces of their history. >> if i'm remembering correctly, and i may not be, the apple-1, only 340 were built or something like that? >> i believe 200 >> because the apple-2 was the first big commercial release, if i recall >> that's right. the apple-1 was a mother board and they put a monitor and keyboard but the apple-2 people remember >> having on your desk and it had a little screen, as i recall >> this apple-1, it couldn't even do word today. >> no. it's like a calculator >> the apple-2 is the one people -- >> i had this cool thing -- i guess i was an earlier adopter and had a portable computer, my compact, and i had to walk with

it from midtown all the way to the port authority >> was it a briefcase? >> it was this big and weaponed about 45 pounds. i would walk with this limp to the port authority going to gate 412 to get on the 66 bus i hated it but i was cool. >> i once had a blackberry >> it was about this big thanks for watching. >> "closing bell" starts right now. all right, guys, thanks so much, and welcome to "closing bell." the goldman sachs communacopia, big interviews are on the way. in just a second we'll be joined by altimeter founder and ceo brad gerstner, a big one, and later george lee, the head of the goldman sachs global institute will be here as well to talk all things a.i., and we are excited about that one, too. let's take you to the markets with 60 minutes to go in regulation