it's thursday, september 12th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we have another big morning for data as joe mentioned, the august producer price index is going to be released today at 8:30 a.m. eastern time then the ecb also announcing a decision on interest rates coming at 8:15 a.m take a look at the u.s. equity futures ahead of yesterday's huge volatile swings the dow indicated up by 45 points the s&p futures up 7 the nasdaq up by 28. as joe said, it was a wild

trading day following yesterday's consumer price index. initially, the markets were down the dow fell 744 points early i the session, but then about faced and came all the way back to add more than 100 appointments at the end of the session. s&p 500 was down by more than 1% and turned around to close higher by nearly 1%. something the index hasn't done since november of 2022 the nasdaq surged by 2%. it was a 3.5% round trip investors jumps on the mega cap tech names and chip stocks i heard a lot of explanations about why it happened and nothing made sense to me that means the fed will not cut 50 basis points that means maybe there is not a surprise the economy is weaker than they thought. it is because inflation was a little hotter than they thought. >> we were watching it --

inflation is at 2.5% we're thinking about a growth slowdown i was amazed with growth concerns really the thing we're worried about at this point, the main line -- give me 50. the free money we still want -- if a trader can get 50 basis points, they would love it still. if there is a disappointment, that would happen and that's what people are tying the 700 points to. >> why did it come back? >> because it is better if you are able to start your cutting cycle not because -- >> the hotter than expected cpi? that doesn't take slowing growth off the table. >> i don't know -- that's up 800 points >> i know. volatility and things and people are nervous. we know we are at an inflection point, andrew. maybe we'll see a little bit today. nvidia and the chip sector

leading the day. nvidia added 8%. marvell tech and super micro and arm up sharply as well if you can take a look this morning, you see those movements with additional gains for vo nvidia the treasury yields. cpi came down and the ten-year now at 3.67. the two-year at 3.66 becky, francine striking louisiana as a category 2 hurricane, but since been downgraded to a tropical storm since making landfall. forecasters warning francine could bring a storm surge and widespread flooding and destructive winds on the northern gulf coast. we will have to watch for the storm forcing off shore and refinery operations in southern louisiana shutdown oil prices did move higher yesterday, but much of the oil story seems to center around demand issues.

take a look right now. wti crude, we'll hshow you the board there. it will move a little bit. look at where we were. $68.58 it's hard to complain given where we were. >> i think at this point, the world's pretty well supplied. boeing ceo kelly ortberg asked the unions not to hit the picket line over frustrations of the past saying it would hurt the company's recovery that coming ahead of the vote of the 33,000 members voting today on the tentative deal with the arerospace giant the current contract expire at midnight maybe they can use this for the quality control issues boeing's last strike was in 2008

and shutdown plants for more than 50 days >> the union leadership has signed off on this and said there are questions if the rank-and-file will go along with big pay raises maybe not as some as they were looking for. the leadership said they will build the plane there, too the question of what those on the work force right now really want to see. also news just out from moderna as it kicks off its annual research and development day. the company will slash the r& d investment by $1.1 billion that is not due to start until 2027 mod moderna plans to seek fda approval for the rsv vaccine for those at high risk for severe disease. it is scrapping plans for the standalone flu shot to focus on the covid/flu shot combincombin. the company does not plan to

seek approval to the cancer vaccine it is working on with merck. all that adding up to disappointment on the street moderna shares are down by almost 7% adding to the losses for the year and down close to 30%. we will get into all of the news with the moderna ceo stephane bancel when he will join us on set at 6:35 a.m. >> doesn't even come close to giving you the full picture. in 2022, it was $400 it is from 400 or 380 down to 70 a lot worse than 190 >> this is worse than the f five-year. up 50% this was the covid vaccine craze. the ability to bring something with huge demand the questions are what that frame that they set up and

continue to knockout other vaccines cancer has been a big one people have been watching closely that is disappointing that the fda is not putting that up for exaccelerated approval at this point. >> i don't know. whenever bancel comes on, he is bullish for cancer vaccines. you think of the way to treat cancer with the mnra platform. >> other investors want them to slow sooner. they will pare back, but not until 2027. the streaming wars are heating up disney slashing prices to sign up more subscribers and keep them hooked after the price hike announced and goes into effect

next month the new price of $10 a month kicks in in june, paramount and max raised prices and peacock's price increase ahead of the olympics netflix expected to do another price hike this fall talk about inflation in the world of streaming, but then we've gone back and forth. how many of these different streaming companies will people subscribe to at one time given the price with the advertising. >> 88 on disney. norfolk southern ceo alan shaw is out effective immediately. the rail giant's board determined he engaged in a consensual relationship with the company's chief legal officer. he will be replaced by cfo mark george the company said the legal officer will be terminated as well based on the board's

preliminary investigation. cnbcreported on this sunday. shaw has been fired for cause. if it is a supervisor or subordinate role, it is zero tolerance. >> it happened at mcdonald's >> it seems it was more common in years past. if you went back in time and said this will happen in the future, you would go, whoa maybe think twice. in the meantime, a vote to keep the government from shutting down has been pulled. house speaker mike johnson called off the vote on the temporary spending bill to keep federal agencies and programs funded for six months as it became increasingly clear that the measure lacked the support to pass. the legislation to continue government funding when the new budget year begins on october 1st requires a requirement that

people reguistering to vote hav to provide proof of citizenship. johnson said he would not back off linking two parts of that bill. coming up, a lot more right here on ""squawk box" this morning. a lot more ahead on the data what it means for the fed rates and your investments we'll jump into that next. later, vice president candidate senator jd vance will join us live at 7:45 a.m. eastern time we'll talk about the race for the white house and economic policy and so much more. do not go anywhere "squawk box" comes back after this >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean. not spreadsheets... you need to hire.

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there's a smarter way to save. comcast business mobile. you could save up to 70% on your wireless bill. so you don't have to compromise. powering smarter savings. powering possibilities. welcome back to "squawk box. inflation in focus today with the producer price index due at 8:30 a.m before that number, we will speak to chief investment officer at goldman sachs good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we saw the cpi number yesterday. we are waiting for what jay powell will say on september 18th maybe you can give us a prediction of what it would be and what you would do about it in advance >> i got to tell you, i'm so excited because it's, you know,

very rare you get to see an easing cycle begin and we're about to do this next week, we'll start the easing cycle and it's going to continue for a while we don't know how many total cuts we'll get the fed will have to feel that out. i think what's important is not to focus about the next week's inflation, but it's really setting up the playbook for this entire cutting cycle there's a lot of opportunity out there, but, but the way, people are facing this uncertainty with the election and they will miss the opportunity to lock in yield and lock in returns in the equity market if they don't pay attention. >> okay. when you say you are worried people will miss the opportunity, why don't you spell out the opportunity as you see it in terms of what people could actually be doing then >> let's start in the equity market because that's where the biggest returns are going to

come we focused on the a.i. company and passive s&p. you go into the cutting cycle and most of the interest paid by companies is actually paid by smaller-cap companies. those are the ones with floating rate loans they're going to be the primary beneficiaries in the corporate space of rate cuts you want to be investing in those small caps you got to focus on the quality. so, you know, when i think about small caps, it's going to represent a meaningful opportunity. you look around the corner, january, the best month for small caps is coming up. on top of those things, the second half of the year, you start an ipo market which will create an opportunity and m&a and lbos that's really critical to this space because that shrinks the space on the lbo side and brings new growth to the space. that new growth is going to be

high quality >> ashish, are you saying buy russell 2000 or individual equities >> i think with the russell 2000, there is poor quality with the meme stocks and other things obviously, i'm bias, but i prefer our etf in the space. you know, that's where we really focus on quality companies that are both growers as well as represent value. i do think you can take any really high quality small cap active strategy and that's going to perform over the next 6 to 12 months >> what would you do with the magnificent seven or the rest? >> i would do exactly what everyone in the market has been doing. you see one of the biggest withdrawals and outflows of large caps over the course of

the last month or two. that is because people have really gotten overweight the large caps whether it's global investors or u.s. investors, if you had passive allocation, you have gotten overweight in the space and it is time to diversify your equity portfolio there will be opportunities on the fixed income side. >> ashish, i have a question for you. what happened yesterday? i can't make sense of the turn around why were we down so much and why it came back >> there are a couple of things feeding into it. there are concerns in the a.i. space. you have a balance of mixed news when it comes to chip stocks and other players where people just don't know what the space is going to look like. >> these are stocks just trading on high emotion and expectations for the future and we're unsure at points and that's why you see the big fluctuations? >> yeah, we know a.i. will

represent opportunity in the long term, but what we don't know is the next two years looks like in terms of the adoption curve. >> does that make you nervous you walk in any day and the sentiment changes entirely and things get washed out? >> look, i think we found that in august, right i think the next couple months is very choppy it is good time to take some income by the way, there are a lot of products out there we have one, gpix, which are income driven products buy right strategies on the large cap industry if you don't think the large caps are going to go anywhere and you agree with us the next several months, it's a great wa to stay invested and take in some income. >> ashish, if you were sitting in munis or other bonds, what would you do >> if you are sitting in munis, you should feel lucky with supply coming in and steepening

out of the yield curve we all know you look at the deficits taxes will go higher for the highest income earners regardless of who is in office the big opportunity and big risk out there is the amount of cash sitting in money market funds where people don't own their, you know, strategic allocation when it comes to bonds is massive. advisors, the biggest problem i have with advisors as i talk to them all the time, the biggest piece of advice is how to get their clients out of cash and out of t-bills and out the curve. so, when i think about that, you know, the easy move right now into an easing cycle is you have to go dynamic and you don't have to take on duration, but you

have to take on a little bit more in the market strategy like an ultra short duration we have one, gst, is a fast way to get someone to move out of the curve and preserve yield guess what in 12 months' time or 6 months' time, people will regetret not getting out of the market fund the other thing i would say is my team spends a tremendous amount of time going after relative value opportunities you are talking about the ecb moving at a different pace than the fed. you are talking about the boj actually heading in the opposite direction. as an individual investor, you can't take advantage of those opportunities in nearly the same way that my team at goldman sachs can. so, going into a dynamic type of product makes a lot of sense and

dynamic bond product to take advantage of the relative value opportunities. the reason that is so important is when you're sitting there, long duration, but a lot of cuts priced already, it is tough to generate returns you will watch your yields come down over time not benefit from the total return you can tell i'm excited about this space you know, in a way we haven't really seen for a while. you know, i think the bond market is going to be really interesting, but there's interesting parts of the equity market coming up and i hope all of you can take advantage of it. >> ashish, you thatnk you for joining us becky. thank you, andrew. when we come back, vsurrounding to the overwork outcry overhow many hours junior bankers could work and some financial giants could be making changes.

we'll talk about that next. and then moderna dropping news on the annual research and development day. ine ceo stephane bancel will jo us in a few minutes they just put some news out. stock was down on the initial reaction to that we'll talk about that. "squawk box" will be right back. versabank is a fully digital, cloud based bank embarking on a transformational opportunity in the united states.

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dealing with the overworkout cry on wall street the wall street journal reporting that jpmorgan and bank of america will work closely to track the hours of young bankers. this after the dangerous culture of overwork on wall street

jpmorgan will cap 80 hours a week if you are on a live deal, that goes outs the window. bank of america will go into detail of how their time is spent. the investigation revealed that bank of america workers were instructed to lie about the hours. this comes after a heart attack that killed a 35-year-old at one of the banks this is a decade after there was another situation where someone died after working very long hours and a lot of soul searching took place on wall street andrew, what do you think? >> i mean, look, we have been writing about this issue for many, many years we've had so many, you know, suicides and there have been hospitalizations the culture has been such for so many years, this is what they would argue they pay for in some

ways the idea that the journal reporting that some of these people were lying about the hours they were putting in because their bosses -- there's clearly a problem here, but the problem has been, one, we have known about for decades at this point. >> and the initial starting salaries as high as $200,000 it definitely comes with high compens compensation maybe a new way. >> never worth it. >> i was trying to figure out 100 hours a week you would be working seven days a week you could do 12 hours on five days and 10 hours the other days on the weekend it takes a lot to put in that many hours. >> yeah, it does no family, obviously. >> no, no. or sleep or outside life. >> right i just -- i figure they should be better at figuring out earnings estimates if they are

working this hard. >> investment bankers? >> they would be better than they do or they need to hire a few more people. >> that is part of the problem the banks cut back and you have m&a activity taking off and more hours on the people that survived through that period >> right better them than us. coming up, openai valuation jumps again. we get up at 3:30. we have our own cross to bare. here's a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them?

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market same in times square. 23 on the dow.

the ppi's coming today you would think if a.i. was any good at all, you could put in some of the cpi numbers from yesterday. put in the important ones and tell me what the ppi is going to be if you are any good or just as bad as siri is, we should try. could it be a huge surprise? that's the question. >> i suppose it always could be. >> i guess it could be there must be a way of looking at the cpi and having a pretty good idea. a hot cpi or a hot ppi >> couldn't humans do that, too? it is not some super complicated. >> i want some payoff. we have been talking about it so much by the way, there was a time when 800-point swings. >> would really catch your attention. >> less than 2%. >> i know. through the course of the day, it was 3.5% for the nasdaq >> for the dow, less than 2%

treasuries this morning -- i thought it was really funny. i liked our guest. he was so -- there's things you think about in life that you like to see that i like to be there for something. an easing cycle from the fed it just doesn't give me the same -- did you see how excited he was >> he was so excited. >> it's like -- >> it's very rare. >> you get to be on the cusp of the easing cycle of the bank of the country. he dabbed his eyes a little bit. what's wrong with you? >> looking for opportunities. >> that's his job. >> we want people who are very engaged in their jobs. >> working 80 hours a week. >> it's funny. i asked him about that you know, par for the course >> i guess so. bitcoin has been actually doing a little bit better. it was down a lot in the last couple sessions.

now all the way back over $58,000. by the way, senator jd vance, as you know, has a lot of strong relationships in finance and on wall street cnbc.com is reporting that vance's supporters are mobilizing to help him raise millions of dollars for the campaign today, vance will headline two fund-raisers in new york city hosted by some of his top supporters in the financial industry each of the events is expected to raise more than $1 million for the trump-vance campaign before any of that gets started, senator vance will join us on set here at the nasdaq at 7:45 a.m. eastern time. he brought some friends. it's nice. they're here already looking under desks and searching around >> sizing us up. >> they looked at me they did i don't know >> can you blame them? >> i would be looking at

steck -- you got the -- i don't know the baseball hat pulled down. >> he looks like he can do some moves. >> you do. you're dangerous i always wanted to be dangerous at a bar never was. andrew, that's not our thing >> i wish. i can only wish. >> we need to appeal in other ways i can even do moves and nobody believes it. >> i want to be able to play the guitar i want to do a lot of things. let's talk about what's going on with openai the company behind chatgpt in talks to raise between $5 billion and $7 billion to put the valuation at $150 billion. nvidia and apple investors in the company. once you get to the valuations,

at some point people want exits. there are not a lot of ways to exit without pursuing an ipo if you pursue an ipo, you may have to restructure some of the company because, of course, there is this unique non-profit, profit status situation in terms how the company is cut up and the different units of it. we will be watching. i think this is a set up, longer term, for this company to be a full for-profit entity and one that may very well one day trade on the nasdaq or new york stock exchange >> i would want an exit valuation like that. pretty good deal if you have been along for the ride the time >> we have talked about openai as a great inventor at that moment they still lose an enormous

amount of money, but the scale is unique and the better they do, the more it costs them >> because of the computing costs. >> because of most businesses because they have to invest not more in the chips side each time someone comes online, it is not necessarily clear they are making more money. there is a margin issue. i think they have to figure that out in the coming months and years. >> you think at some point where all of a sudden the economy of scale is making sense and the costs become more fixed. >> that's what the valuations are based on. when we come back, moderna is holding the annual research and development day. the stock right now is off 6.8%. the ceo stephane bancel will join us right after this to break it all down. that's next right here on "squawk box.

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welcome back, everybody. moderna is expected to seek approval for the covid-flu shot and scrap the flu shots. that's part of the development day that takes place later today. joining us is ceo stephane bancel thank you for coming in today. >> good morning. >> you put out news at the top of the hour. right now,it looks like the stock is under pressure as a rule i want to go through the points. why do you think the stock is down 6.5% right now? >> i know that the company's platform is improving and great productivity if you look at the numbers that

we'll be showing in a couple hours, we are around six times higher than the average of the biopharma industry from phase one to phase three success this is leading to a new positive phase three data this morning. we are announcing we will file three new products to the fda by the end of the year. the covid-flu and rsv to 18 to 59 and next gen covid. the platform is working well that's exciting. >> the platform has been one we all have been watching closely the idea you get drugs out quickly and test as a result that is something that has been telegraphed to the street we all watched and a lot of hope for. let me run through why the stock is off you will be cutting your annual r&d in 2027.

there have been calls to do that sooner do you want to explain why >> sure. a few things first, we are here to create value. as you know, we're $11 billion of cash from the covid profits and the covid and rsv business is already generating cash flows. we are using the cash to create the return for this platform there is a question of we cannot stop clinical studies currently ongoing. if you look at these things, we use the r&d as the studies are completed. it is important for the business and for the patients, to, of course, finish the studies >> i think part of it is the huge promise you had with searching for cancer vaccines. ways to try to help people based on what you see on the rna platform the fda is not supporting your plans to seek accelerated

approval with the partnership with you and merck on this merck is straight forward. you telegraphed it is more likely what happened and what's the future hold? >> sure. if you look at the data, the data is strong two of three people noticed three years after the treatment which is remarkable. the safety profile which we discussed is similar it is very good upside with very little downside for patients we talked to regulators around the world. we still believe there is benefit for patients the benefit is how quickly phase three is enrolled. we announced one this morning. phase three is substantially fully enrolled we have a couple ofcountries, wy enrolled that is just over a year since we started if you think about it, 1,000 people in the study in phase three cancer is remarkable

when you talk to the doctors, they are putting their patients on the studies basically, what they have is the interesting risk-reward profile. you will get this upside on the performance from moderna with the little down side on safety on a cancer patient is interesting. >> how quickly will phase three trial take place and what's the plan beyond that >> the phase three, as i said, is fully enrolled. we have to wait to get the data. >> a year? >> this morning, we think in the '27 timeframe to get the product on the market. again, we will continue to talk to regulatory as we get more data, not only in the u.s., but other countries, because we think this drug should be made v available to patients. >> you are scrapping plans for the standalone flu shot and focus on the covid-flu shot.

why is that? >> if you look at the company, our teams are busy if you think about it, filing between now and the end of the year is three and a half months. it is a remarkable achievement we have to prioritize. we have to prioritize to allow us to reduce how we spend. >> we were looking through the stock chart. it has been a rough year for moderna. over five years, it has been impressive this follows people's demand for covid vaccines and coming down off that and waiting to see the next developments. >> as you think about covid, the market was $50 billion of sales between us and the vaccine of course, it has come down to $8 billion if you think about it, covid is still an issue we talked about it before the show started long covid is the reason i take the vaccine. >> you are still getting a vaccine? >> i get my update every year to

protect myself and others at social gatherings. if you look at the elderly, the season that just finished, people 65 years old, have more rsv rate than flu. this will be launched and help people getting flu and covid shots on the same day. we need to keep educating people there is a lot of information, as you know. people getting hospitalized is a big deal we don't think about it because we're still young. think about being 70 years old you will lose muscle mass. your quality of life leaving hospital will be degraded. 30% of people who get hospitalized, get hospitalized within six months. it is a big impact on somebody's quality of life. people get the flu shot and covid shot >> stephane, we were talking about the fed cutting rates. we talk about it endlessly

it is not often we pinpoint what it means for an industry and company. what would a 25-basis point cut mean for moderna and your industry >> i think it is all about industry being a big deal. in biotech, you have to invest many years, sometimes a decade or two, before you get revenue from medicine. it is a risky investment 90% of drugs fail in clinical studies. the cost of capital is very important. it is very good for the industry to have the fed easing and looking forward because there is a lot of innovation that has not been funded fully to help patients down the road. >> stephane, if you think there's a sweep and we know about the -- about the impetus to cap prices on fpharm pharmaceuticals. we hear it talked about during the presidential election campaign if there is a democratic sweep,

would you worry about the possibility of even more draconian regulation on prices or maybe even kamala harris at one point said something about patents. i would seize a patent if it was being abused andproperty i don't know if she's taking that back or not but would you worry about that >> i would worry about this. if you think about this industry, joe, as you know very well, this industry requires years and extremely large amount of capital to be invested in very high risk there would be no more innovation and who would suffer? patients you look at all the innovation, think about the world where moderna and biotech would not have happened and there would be no funding of innovation in the '90s and 2000s that would be terrible so it is really important for the world. people like from cancer and heart disease, and there is

still so many things we have as a society to discover. >> is the current regime -- in terms of what was in the inflation reduction act, in terms of pricing of some -- prices, is it already -- is there a bite already is it taking effect already? >> as you heard from a lot of large pharmaceutical companies, they deprioritized some products so it is having an impact of what people are investing their r&d on that's the piece we have to be very careful those things have consequences and sometimes i think we don't always think through five, ten-year time frame of what will be the impact. >> or the cost of chronic disease management versus the up-front cost of something that might prevent the chronic disease and the hospitalization and the long-term care and everything else. people have argued that pharmaceuticals are probably the best deal in town, if you can, you know, prevent a really bad chronic illness. >> which is why the vaccine is quite amazing. if you look at the data, vaccine

has a return investment in the same year. the best medical investment that can happen is a vaccine. you prevent disease with a small amount of capital. >> i guess being healthy helps too. >> correct but the vaccine helps us stay healthy. >> that's why the fat drugs are great. if you're not fat, much healthier. >> less likely to get the illnesses. thank you for coming in. stephan bencal from moderna. we'll bring you the details on the spacewalk next when "squawk box" rolls on after this old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas, to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, rubenstein economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential.

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astronauts from spacex's polaris down's mission beginning the first ever commercial or private venture spacewalk, technically it is called an eva or extra vehicular activity. crewman jared isaacman just stepping outside of the crew dragon capsule about two minutes ago and got a fantastic view of planet earth spacex depressurized the capsule, exposed the entire inside of the ship to the vacuum of space that's because the ship has no air lock all four astronauts have donned their spacesuits to be able to breathe. the spacewalk is expected to last for about two hours after which the crew will repressurize the cabin. but there is a live shot, very, very cool, you see it right there. >> take a look

>> down on the bottom, though. he's moving a little we were talking about this, andrew, these are brand-new spacesuits that spacex itself designed they're not nearly as bulky. they have never been tried before but nasa is in the process of looking for new suits too, because the suits that everybody is wearing at the iss when they go out, those have -- there is nothing that was invented in the last decade. those are really old suits they're looking for newer ones this is less than you would wear to ride a motorcycle >> looks like a jogging suit unbelievable. >> this is the first time we have been up in space like this since the apollo mission in the 1970s. scary stuff. >> it is scary if i had a billion dollars this is not where i would be. maybe, like, really hard waves in tahiti, you know? >> maybe. >> like scary wave doesn't that -- that's the kind of danger up my alley with a

little umbrella type drink afterwards >> i was thinking bottom of the ocean, top of the -- >> no, no. neither. t, hbuey, we love people like this because, you know -- >> they've braver than we are. >> oh, my god. not even close >> "squawk box" will be right back. >> pretty cool. >> it is cool. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keeping the vest.

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you can quickly create a website, and ai will customize it for you. get your business out there and get more customers in here. no sweat... for you anyway. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. it is 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. and you are watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. we got a lot going on this morning. inflation in focus again today the producer price index, that's due at 8:30 eastern time and meanwhile, futures right now are higher and higher in a big way. we look at the dow up 60 points.

the nasdaq up 22 points. the s&p 500 up over 7 points we got a news alert right now on mcdonald's this morning. straight over to kate rogers who joins us with more. >> good morning. mcdonald's will be extending its $5 value meal through december in most local markets. the company said roughly 80% of the local markets are extending the meal deal which includes a mcdouble or mcchicken sandwich, small fries, four piece chicken nuggets and small crdrink all for $5 there is the potential to see additional participation confirmed in the coming weeks. joe irlinger said in a statement together with our franchisees we're committed to keeping our prices as affordable as possible, this is why we're doubling down with more ways to save value has been a key focus and theme across the restaurant sector this summer, the companies from burger king to mcdo mcdonald's and starbucks getting in on the $5 bundles to capture the attention of consumers after a challenging second

quarter in july, executives told restaurant operators and analysts post earnings that it would be rephysiqurefocusing ono recapture consumers with deals as they push forward with the extension of the $5 per meal platform it ran through the end of august after 93% of the locations agreed to keep it on its menu after the initial four-week run over the summer. there will be additional deals in the app and local deals that franchisees offer. >> kate, thank you for that. straight over to dom chu, who has a look this morning at the premarket movers what's on deck, dom? >> so, andrew, let's get started by checking on shares of boeing, up slightly ahead of a potential strike of over 30,000 workers. boeing's ceo pleaded with members of its largest union to not hit the picket line saying it would hurt the company's recovery union members are expected to vote on a contract today that includes a 25% wage hike over four years the current contract expires at midnight and a strike could shut boeing factories in washington and oregon

boeing shares down half a percent. now let's look at shares of nvidia, apple and amazon nvidia moving slightly higher, apple, you can see relatively flat amazon relatively flat as well this as morgan stanley added each of these stocks to its vintage values list, a list that names the best stocks to hold over the course of the next 12 months check out those megacap tech names. we'll finish by looking at the big names in the solar industry. they're mostly up this morning after making big moves on the back of the presidential debate. investors, some of them, are taking a relatively positive view to vice president kamala harris' performance and rising hopes around a potential victory that may create opportunities for alternative energy names like first solar, sun run, array and solar edge each name jumping between 8.5 and 15% yesterday. in context as always, many of the solar names have been hit hard over the course of the last 12 months. we'll see if that recovery continues. >> it was interesting to see the

big moves that you really can follow politically it is not often you can say, okay, politically speaking, these are some major moves and you can attribute it directly to that that was the case yesterday. >> absolutely. and albemarle also a big gainer yesterday as well. >> thanks, dom we'll see you later. with the dust continuing to settle on the presidential debate, let's bring in libby cantrell from pimco. i don't know what to look at, lu libby. you said probably a week before we know everything weird that the day before we got an interesting "new york times"/sienna poll that showed former president trump up one. if he's up one in the -- i don't know if you agree with that, if he's up one in the national poll, that probably does not at that point didn't portend great things for the swing states for vice president harris. do you expect, like, a poll conducted that way to shift

significantly following the debate >> well, what we tell our clients is this is going to be an election won at the margins so any marginal event could actually have an outsized impact i think it is really too early to say to your point, he's leading nationally by a point, within the margin of error. >> before the -- >> before the debate i think as you point out, the more instructive, you know, polls to look at are the swing states and it really is sort of a mixed bag. pennsylvania is the most important state as you know, joe. and it is a dead heat. so, if this moves by a point, in her favor, that will be a victory. but i think for all intents and purposes this is going to be -- we're characterizing this as a knife fight in a phone booth this is an incredibly close election now, while voters are actually going to the polls in pennsylvania, and they're starting to early vote in north carolina, the events now could actually have an impact in terms of how people are voting, it is still, you know, still basically two months out

i guess we wouldn't read too much into any of this. objectively i think the folks swing voters in terms of the immediate focus groups after the debate thought that she did better, but in terms of actually really moving the needle, it didn't seem like it was -- they're persuadable, but maybe that didn't actually -- >> there is a lot of people that are locked in on either side. >> it is calcified, for sure >> it is true that 3.5 years ago it was less than 50,000 total votes spread across three swing states that determined the -- >> more or less. >> that's where we are right now. so taylor swift supposedly 600,000 young fans registered to vote after she gave them some type of -- that could be more significant than -- >> that's what we were talking with clients, the debate may be interesting. we didn't learn much about her views on the economy or really -- he wasn't very specific in terms of his economic policies. but what could really move the

needle here is her endorsement i think it is -- to your point about polling there, if you looked at where biden was in the cycle in 2020 and where hillary clinton was in 2016, both of them are much farther ahead versus trump than where harris is but i think that if polling repeats itself , that's bad for harris if you look at 2012, actually polling went in obama's favor. polls underestimated the support for obama. the reason why i tie this into the taylor swift endorsement, if you have a bunch of young people registering, who are going to vote, those polls are not capturing, you could see polling shift. you know, who knows. we don't know. but it is i think for just -- it is something that everyone needs to keep in mind. >> i don't know if the polls get a hold of the 18, 19, 20-year-old voters out there it is harder to track younger people who don't have the traditional means of picking up a land line or something like

that but, libby, i was thinking about this kind of in terms of the stock market i have to say, of my lifetime, this is the most volatile election season i've ever seen or experienced just in terms of somebody's up in the polls, somebody's down in the polls, things change and a big part of that was biden dropping out of the race any given day or any given week you may see some pretty significant swings in who you think is ahead i have no idea i wouldn't fathom a guess at this point. >> i think again we would say it is probably too early to actually be like betting your money and we know we're telling -- >> people are already -- >> we're telling our clients, you know, cash out of cash, stay invested, we think active fixed income is pretty attractive. but, yeah, this is going to be -- >> will there be another debate? >> you know -- >> what debate there will be -- >> the vice presidential debate. >> he's going to be here >> which is fantastic. i mean, so i would be surprised if there weren't another debate. >> you would >> i would be.

i think there is going to be -- >> too much -- >> president trump is going to want to have to maybe clarify some things and maybe redeem himself a little bit i would be surprised if we didn't have a debate the last thing i'll say as it relates, we talked about this before, as it relates to the solars and whatever, down ballot races here are just as important and, of course, enthusiasm at the top of the ticket does affect those down ballot races i think invariably, even if harris is elected, we're looking at likely republican senate. when people are thinking about what is going to happen on taxes in particular, they just -- and people who can get confirmed, people need to realize that she's going to have to navigate and maybe narrow but probably a republican senate and that would fu function as a natural guardrail of what she can get done. >> thank you. >> what does it mean if president trump is re-elected? >> i mean, he -- >> the house -- >> the house might flip. he may have to also navigate a divided congress >> but there could be -- okay.

>> there could be a republican sweep for sure. >> thank you. >> thank you. folks, when we come back, we got three massive guests in the next hour. after the break, we're going to talk politics, the economy and so much more with david rubenstein of the carlisle group. and then on energy markets, president biden's top energy adviser is going to be here. and then jd vance, all of them joining us in just a little bit. do not go anywhere "squawk box" rolls on after this i can't believe you corporate types are still at it. just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars.

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to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island? all right, let's talk about the state of the economy, the federal reserve, investing in the markets, sports and much more a new book too david rubenstein joins us right now, the carlisle group's co-founder and co-chairman, also the team owner of the baltimore orioles, and he has a new book out this week called "the highest calling: conversations on the american presidency," for which he interviewed four of the living six presidents and others reflecting on the american presidency and good morning it is great to see you here. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you for being here.

this is an incredibly timely book we spent so much time talking about the upcoming election, talking about what is happening in politics in this country. why don't we start with the book and what you heard, what you learned because you did an interview with former president trump as well. >> i interviewed him and i interviewed president biden as well and president clinton and president bush as well and i interviewed scholars on many other presidents who are no longer with us the main message i want to get out is that people should look into the facts of who the candidates are, make sure they know what they're doing and vote we have 80 million people who are eligible to vote, who don't vote in this country we have about 160 million people voting, but 80 million people who could vote don't vote and i think the democracy would be better if more people voted. >> i think the frustration, the reason some people don't vote, they look at this and say, i don't understand who these candidates are, i don't like either of them, i don't know about what their plans are and when you see things like the debate this week, it didn't lay out more about understanding who

each of these candidates are. >> remember, all of life has a choice of decisions between one another -- >> binary choice. >> so if you go through life saying, i can't do that because it is not a perfect decision, you'll never do anything in life so, you're never going to have perfect candidates when lincoln was running, he wasn't considered a perfect candidate, no candidate has ever been perfect like in life, you have to come through the decision process and say, look, it is not a great opportunity to pick one or the other, but it is better to pick somebody than nobody. >> what is wrong with the process at this point, to feel like we don't know necessarily who the candidates are, what their plans are, you would think that with social media and others, other ways of really tracking people, we would have a better idea of finding out what they truly believe and it seems like it would be harder to promise different things to all different groups of people, but i'm not sure that's the case. >> we know more than we used to know, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago. >> maybe that's why we like them less. >> we have a thirst for information, we think we should know more than we already do

know there is more opportunity to learn more, and people get opportunities to have discussions on shows like this and other things people do know who the candidates views are and what the candidates are about, i think, generally, compared to what they did many years ago it is not a perfect process. if we want to change the process, make it shorter, less money involved, financial disclosures that are more than we would have, health disclosures more than we have, more debates than we have, and many different things we can do, but we're not going to change the process overnight. >> of the living presidents that you interviewed, what was your biggest takeaway in terms of a constant no matter who is in charge >> whoever is in charge, these are people who really want to do what what they think is right for the country. these are not malevolent people. they don't always agree with what everybody else wants. but these are people who are trying to do this job because they think the country is worth leading and it is not an easy job to be president of the united states. think about it, many people who have taken this job, you have to say why do they really want this job? john kennedy was assassinated. lyndon johnson thrown out of

office, pushed out of office, nixon had to resign, ford didn't get re-elected, carter didn't get re-elected, george herbert walker bush didn't get re-elected it is not a job that winds up with many people coming out and saying i'm glad i had this job. >> it makes you think there is something wrong with you to want this job from the get go. >> the best people may not want the job and we have a lot of very talented people in the country who don't want this job. when the country was started we had 3 million people we had george washington, thomas jefferson, john adams, james madison. where are all the talented people now equivalent to those people well, my theory is they're all in private equity. >> i was thinking of some other places they might have gone to but, yes, i hear your point on that a lot more opportunities than there used to be. >> we had 3 million people when the country started. why don't we have people like a washington and jefferson and the answer is they had their flaws too. they weren't perfect for sure. i talk about their flaws and their strengths and so everybody

has flaws. i think what i'm trying to do is get people to learn more about the presidency, be interested in learning about it and make sure you vote >> you're a historian, you've spent a lot of time going through this let's talk about the markets right now. last time you were here, you told us you did not expect the federal reserve would lower interest rates before the election it looks very much like they will next week. >> yes, i was wrong. i'm wrong a lot. i thought the federal reserve would say we must stay out of the election process but now it is so overwhelmingly obvious that a fed cut is coming that i was wrong and i'm wrong a lot. i don't think the fed in this 100 year history has ever telegraphed a fed cut as much as they have. they made it clear they're going to cut. >> is it because the economy is in such trouble at this point? what do you see from the companies that you all oversee >> i wouldn't say the economy is in trouble it is clear that the economy is slowing down a little bit. and it is also clear the inflation is coming down the most recent report shows inflation is down. i think the fed is correct in saying they should make a cut. the issue is 25 or 50 basis points the next meeting and we don't know yet. >> a lot of times private equity

is looking at other things, looking at the longer term but when you look at the markets short-term, what do you anticipate ahead of the election just after the election? >> i think the market is going to tread water for a little bit because of the election, they want to know who is going to be president of the united states when the interest rate comes, i think the market will go up a bit. i think it has been anticipated, so built into the market somewhat. >> steve eisman was here yesterday, known for seeing the housing bubble problems before 2008, being very right about the bets he placed on that he looked at it and said, look, if you see a democratic sweep of all three parties, he thinks -- >> of the senate, the house, and the presidency, if you see a democratic sweep there, he thinks that there would be a very sharp reaction in the stock market because a lot of these ideas that some people are saying don't worry, you're not going to get any of these through would come to fruition and that would be bad news for the market do you agree >> that wouldn't be a bad prediction i think right now the democrats

have a tough time holding on to the senate and i think most people are looking at it thinking it is going to be tougher for them to hold on to the senate. we'll see. they could win the senate. tough for them to win some of the races they have. and i think -- i suspect it is unlikely you'll see a sweep. we haven't had a sweep in a long time. >> if we did, what policies in particular do you think would lead to a wall street sell-off like that? >> if you had a sweep of the democratic party in their favor, most likely have tax cuts that would be not ones that would be business, probably more tax increases, and other things that regulatory environment that many bus people would not like. >> david rubenstein, thank you very much. the new book "the highest calling," we appreciate your time today. >> thank you very much. still to come, the presidential election, the

future of energy in america, president biden's top energy policy official amos hochstein is going to join us. plus, republican vice presidential candidate jd vance will join us for a wide ranging interview. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what was the first mass produced car with a body made entirely of fiberglass the answer when "squawk box" returns. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪) one thing we know is true: no matter race, gender, ethnicity... the need to screen when due... for colon cancer's a priority.

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>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question what was the first mass produced car with a body made entirely of fiberglass the answer, the chevrolet corvette coming up next, we're going to discuss america's energy policy and so much more with president biden's top energy adviser, amos hochstein. and then republican vice presidential candidate jd vance is going to be with us to talk about the race for the white house, the economy, and so much more don't go anywhere. coming right back with that after this and relentlessly work with you to make them real.

welcome back to "squawk box. august inflation data showing prices for energy have decreased by 4% year over year but concerns about tensions in the middle east and the impact of hurricane francine have traders on edge. joining us now is amos hochstein, the senior adviser to president biden for energy and investment good morning to you.

let's talk about energy prices first. the good news is, you know if you thought going to get a gallon of gasoline and seeing those signs on the corner all over the country that was a sort of sign of inflation and where things are, the good news is that's down. the question is why you think it's down and as down as much as it is. >> well, first, good morning, andrew good to see you, and to be here. the oil prices are obviously down as you said quite a bit we're now down to almost $70 on brent and below $70 on wti here in the united states and gasoline prices are down, 60 cents below where it was a year ago. we're doing the oil prices are coming down despite the fact that we have these tensions in the middle east, and tensions between russia and ukraine are still -- that war is still going on both are big oil producing regions and despite that oil price coming down, they're coming down because of two reasons. one, despite the opec cuts, production of the united states

and production in a few other countries are at all time highs. here in the united states, we're at 13.4 million barrels a day, which is the highest we have ever had historically. and that will -- that seems to be holding so didn't just peak and go down. it has peaked and hold the other reason is that the demand in china seems to be a lot softer than people thought and i think that as we see the economy continue to grow here in the u.s., but a little bit sluggish in other places and specifically in areas that are energy intensive, i think we have seen some of the prices come down. >> that is where i was going with it. how concerned on a more global or geopolitical basis should we be about the fact that some of these markets are struggling and whether we're going to catch that cold from an economic perspective? >> i think what we're seeing now is what we have actually thought for several months, that the chinese demand is low as a result of the economic data

there and slowdown overall in the economy. despite the fact that in the u.s. the economy held very strongly we think the economy is very strong here as you know. and demand for energy products in the u.s. is still high. our diversification in energy is -- means that we can export more and when we need to and use what we have the energy production here so i think -- i'm not that concerned about what it means for the u.s. economy except for the fact that it helps with reducing the pressure of inflation here in the u.s., but, you know, when oil is at 80, everybody talks about will this cause pressures -- upward pressure on inflation, when you get to 70 people say, well, does this mean the other side i think we're probably in the best place that we can be with $70 oil, maybe still have a little bit of room there for it to go down with helping american families and consumers overall with lower prices at the pump. at the grocery store and as you

know, andrew, there is so much connection between energy prices and food prices, so energy prices come down this way, so many other things for american families come down at the same time. >> have we started buying back spr stuff? are we doing it all? it is down just -- i think it is down 43% since president biden took office. the lowest level since the early '80s i'm wondering if we're buying any back, and do you still stand by that that was the type of crisis that was envisioned for the creation of the -- to tackle inflation, does that constitute a crisis that was created for, or some kind of blockade or cut off by opec, that's what people think it was for this was just a lower price. you still stand by that? >> absolutely. i think it is one of the most important things we have done in a long time. the spr is there to be a strategic asset for the united states and first, yes, we released 180

million barrels, president ordered that release, whether prices were over $120 a barrel, threatening a recession here, that was largely a result of concerns because of the war in ukraine, when russia invaded ukraine and if russian oil is one of the largest producers in the world, there was a connection to the global crisis, causing an impact on the economic crisis here at home but, we bought over 43, 44 million barrels back we have actually used the authorities that we have to schedule purchases into the future, when we see that the price is right so, what we have been able to do is to sell at about -- we sold 180 million barrels at $95 a barrel on average, we're buying it back at 75, $76 a barrel. we're doing -- >> 60 would be nice. >> 60 would be nice too. a $20 difference is good for the taxpayers and we're refilling. and, remember, congress, several

years ago, long before the spr release had ordered us to sell from the spr for budget reasons. and so we went to congress last year and we got them to cancel the over 100 million that we were going to be selling as mandated by congress so, in reality, we're today exactly where we would have been had we not done the sale between the canceled sale and the purchases. but we're going to continue to buy as long as we can every time the price is right, and as long as it is below $80 or so, it is right to buy and today we're just about -- the other day we announced another purchase of a few million barrels. >> walking in here with your credit card. >> a different question for you, we have jd vance coming up in a moment i wanted to ask you about this, former president trump saying he believes co believess he could halve energy prices if he wins re-election. he said your heating, air congress, could be cut down in half, he said this at a michigan

rally last month saying he would declare what he calls a national emergency to increase fossil fuel supply and decrease prices. what do you think of that? >> honestly, i have no idea what he's referring to. we have oil production is significantly higher than it was. full 2 million barrels higher than it was when we took office. 13.5 million as you know, your air conditioning costs have nothing to do with oil production. electricity, not oil in the united states, natural gas is -- was at 92 -- today at 300. so a significant increase in gas production with the largest lng exporter we probably would be exporting less if demand for gas was there, just not there. and not only that, we added 100 gigawatts of clean energy over the last few years so, what really brings down the cost of electricity and cost for families is, one, the gasoline,

that's already down. the cost for natural gas, we're producing as much as we ever have, and the availability of cheap clean energy and that's also rising dramatically so, the only thing that is energy -- emergency would do is probably increase costs on american families because it would take away all the incentives for investments and things like nuclear energy and fusion and renewable energy, which is actually bringing help to bring costs down. that's what the energy transition needs to be it needs to be continued fossil fuels for as long as we need them and bringing on clean energy that is cheaper as we need for the future and we definitely want the private sector to invest in nuclear power, which is both clean and efficient, but needs the incentives from the government to be able to grow >> amos hochstein, we appreciate your time this morning thank you. >> thank you >> real glad that president hired you because you must have convinced him to go back on that

campaign promise to end fossil fuels and so and he didn't he increased it. that must have been the sales job you did. thk u. thank you, amos. coming up, republican vice presidential candidate jd vance. "squawk box" coming right back

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welcome back to "squawk

box. we have been watching the futures this morning, and after the huge volatile swings yesterday, where you had markets down significantly, but ending the day higher, you can now see there are some green arrows once again. dow futures indicated up by just over 40 points s&p 500 futures up by 6. the nasdaq up by 15. and if you've been looking at the treasury markets, again, some big swings here yesterday before and after the cpi number. today we're getting the producer price information, but the ten-year ahead of that is at 366. the two-year at 365. a much narrower spread than we have seen in recent days with the uninversion between the ten-year and two-year. look at bitcoin prices this morning, up by about $450 for the year, up pretty significantly. yesterday, there was a little bit of pressure. you can see 58,000 is where bitcoin is trading right now

and some news out this morning from moderna as it kicks off its annual research and development day. the company saying that it will slash its research and development investments by $1.1 billion starting in the year 2027 moderna plans to seek fda approval this year to expand use of its rsv vaccine to 18 to 59-year-olds at high risk of severe disease it is also scrapping plans to seek accelerated approval for its stand alone flu shot the focus instead on its covid and flu combination shot and moderna says the fda does not support the company's plan to seek accelerated approval of a cancer vaccine it is working on in partnership with merck based on phase two results the ceo was with us earlier this morning ahead of his talking to investors later. he said of a number of things that he was pointing out that phase three enrollments for the keytruda and vaccine on the cancer vaccine, they had very strong numbers of patients willing to come into it and they're going to be looking at

that starting up in the not too distant future the shares of that company down by 7% this morning andrew >> thanks, becky disney offering a special offer for disney plus. new and returning customers can get a basic plan with ads for $1.99 a month for three months that's currently $8 a month. however, that deal will auto renew at the full price unless you cancel the basic plan to get more expensive, going up to $10 a month, on october 17th you can see the streaming price war in action as so many of the streamers battling it out, joe coming up next, republican vice presidential candidate jd vance joins us after the break a lot of issues to discuss with him after the presidential debate on tuesday night. he's got a vice presidential debate coming up next month. and later, best-selling author michael lewis will join us for a wide ranging conversation we'll be right back.

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bring on the good stuff. all right, let's take one more quick look at futures we are looking at some moderate advances this morning after closing above the losses that we had seen earlier in the session. yesterday, we made a pretty significant turn around with the dow coming back from down about 700 plus points to finish up more than 100 points, indicated up another 43 points this morning. s&p futures are up by 6.5. the nasdaq indicated up by about 17 treasury yields, very close between the ten-year and two-year in fact, ten-year, at 3.67 two-year at 3.66 we get producer price information. dom chu is here with a look at

the premarket movers. >> we're going to start with a check on the chips stocks. specifically shares of nvidia, it is already up roughly about 1% today, following an 8% gain yesterday at ceo jensen huang discussed the rollout of the company's new artificial intelligence chips the chips are in full production and that they will ship in the fourth quarter advanced micro broadcom, intel, up relatively. we'll keep an eye on the semisemis semiconductor shops. shares of diageo up. bank of america saying guinness beer and johnny walker whiskeys should see improved growth after a challenging few years. those shares about 9% down year to date, 27% over the past couple of years.

so beverage alcohol in focus this morning for some investors. we'll finish with shares of roku, which are up roughly 3.5% now. helped along by an upgrade to outperform from peer perform over at wolf research. the analyst there saying that the leadership's focus on mo monetization should lead to reacceleration in certain trends wolf is upping its target price to $93, that reflects around a 33% upside from wednesday's close. so roku shares very much in focus as well. and by the way, for more on those and other top analyst calls of the day, just head over to cnbc.com/pro. subscribers there, andrew, get the full detail and analysis i'll send things back over to you. >> also news this morning from the golden arches, mcdonald's now plans to extend its $5 value meal through december in most local markets. the company said roughly 80% of local markets are now extending the meal deal, which includes the mcdouble or

mcchicken sandwich, small fries, four piece chicken nuggets and small drink for 5 bucks. i feel like i can do an ad for this votes on extension are ongoing so there is the potential to see additional participation confirmed in the next couple of weeks. value has been the key focus and theme across the entire restaurant sector this summer with some companies including burger king, mcdonald's, starbucks trying to do a $5 bundle to try to capture the attention of consumers and get them in the stores after what was a challenging second quarter in july. mcdonald's telling restaurant operators and analysts post earnings it would be refocusing, trying to capture and recapture customers with these types of deals and try to push for that extension of the $5 value meal platform the meal ran through -- that deal ran through the end of august 93% of locations had agreed to keepen t enit on the menu but you can imagine what it does to margins so it is a complicated little dance.

it is a complicated little dance. but when we come back, a lot more on "squawk," including this, vice presidential candidate jd vance in an interview you do not want to miss he'll be with us in just moments. in the next hour, best-selling author michael lewis will be with us. we're coming right back with all of it after this (♪♪) (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really

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welcome back to "squawk box. right here on cnbc live shot of new york city this morning. among the top stories boeing machinists voting on a new labor contract today saying that the possibility for a strike that would happen if workers rejected a tentative agreement including a 25% wage increase, and improvements to health care and retirement benefits. yesterday's boeing's new ceo urging workers to take the deal despite past frustrations at the company. meantime, norfolk southern's ceo shaw replaced by the company's cfo after the board

determined a consensual relationship with norfolk's chief legal officer. two astronauts aboard spacex's polaris dawn's mission, first-ever private space walk. spacex depressurized the ship exposing the inside of it to the vacuum of space. because the ship has no air lock all four astronauts donning spacesuits how thin they look compared to the past remarkable shots this morning. when we come back, vice presidential candidate j.d. vance. you do not want to miss this talk about the economy, the race for the white house and so much more j.d. vance, after this.

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we heard from former president trump at tuesday's night's debate and today we have his vice presidential candidate here with us onset joining us now, ohio, the great

state of ohio. senator j.d. vance we grew up -- well, long before you grew up, i grew up in -- you're from middletown and been on the show before with steve case, involved with that. >> that's right. >> and i think for hillbilliology i don't know if it was a book tour or what we've met before great to have you on. >> good to see you. >> struggling, we could dough a postmortem on the debate, but because we're so interested in trying to get into your economic beliefs. >> sure. >> given that as we now know, people's economic beliefs can evolve, as we've seen maybe from, you know, former president trump's opponent, but i'm wondering whether yours have evolved? because then we'll get into some of the things you said in the part and -- how much daylight right now is there between what you believe and what -- would i call you an economic populist? is there daylight between you

and president trump right now? >> i don't think so. obviously he selected me as his running mate and i'm trying to implement and win on the trump agenda his views are straightforward american conservatism, which is we need to manufacture things in this country we need common sense energy and regulatory policies to be able to make things and the best way to lift up workers is promote good jobs and good wages not just throw everybody on welfare. i think in ways is the main thrust of the kamala harris economic policy. definitely an elemen populism in if for 30 years shipped jobs to south each asia. china makes thing wes need antibiotics, drugs, god forbid weapons our troops need if we went to war against a nation like china we have to be smarter about our own position and the result of 30, 40 years of failed leadership in this country. >> populism seems diametrically

opposed to certain aspects of capitalism groups i don't want to mention the name, they claim you as a strict adherent to populism. i don't know if you know the group i'm talking about. you have said we should raise corporate taxes in the past. the president, former president, wants to cut the 21% rate down to 15% i think you said 28% even higher that these big corporations deserve that >> what i said is that we need to lower taxes on corporations that are creating jobs in this country and raise tariffs on corporations that are shipping jobs overseas and manufacturing overseas look, trying to take advantage of chinese slave labor and use them in american markets to make a profit on your product i think and donald trump thinks we should penalize these companies but we want companies investing in america, hiring in america and creating jobs that make americans thrive. a fundamental difference between a national corporation creating

good jobs in this country and a foreign company -- >> sounds like industrial policy that democrats get criticized for. >> no. it's not whatever you want to call it, man, the problem is, look, chinese slaves making $2 a day and get caned working 72 hours a week, if they want to work 70 hours a week instead you want to allow american manufacturers to benefit from the cheap labor. nome destroy good american jobs and wages it will decimate our core manufacturing industry making us less productive over time the final most important point it makes us reliant on foreign nations to make our critical stuff. donald trump believe in trade and i believe in trade, but we believe in trade that were actually benefit american workers not destroy american jobs final point, look, you've seen on the dcampaign a lot of groups that disagree president trump speaks for himself and i myself don't assume everything you hear written about him or me is true.

they lie about him quite a bit but he really does believe and frankly right about this for 40 years we have to make more of our own stuff. build more inamerica and need corporate tax policy for most -- yeah, sometimes that means if you're shipping jobs overseas you're going to be penalized. >> what are the lies they're telling about you you don't agree with >> one of the things, for example, donald trump's economic policies, that somehow they're going to jack up inflation, which is rich coming from kamala harris whose economic policies directly -- >> tariffs are inflationary? >> not always. right? >> they're inflationary or people aren't buying the products anymore. >> a classic example economists use, some economists, should say, use to attack donald trump's economic policies is the tariffs imposed on washing machines and other, dishwashers. sorry. on dishwashers they show a chart, look a few month after the tariff price of d dishwashers went up. over two years actually the price of those went down

induced a lot of american factories to invest in american workers and american-made products the price of dishwashers lagged behind price of a lot of other home appliances. sometimes inducing investment in capital formation in the united states of america it does lower prices on american workers and, again, the experience of donald trump's presidency, he was president for four years he did impose tariffs sometimes to induce more investment in american workers and what happened 1.5% inflation rising take-home fpay and the best economic in -- >> differ than an across the board tax. >> donald trump was always leader of the american economy four years we had rising prosperity, broad-based middle class -- that's a record i want to get back to. >> a question on the tariffs where joe was going. because they're across the board and not as targeted it's unclear. certain industries we don't have wouldn't it be great if our

country invested in some of these industries we're missing on the manufacturing side? but the amount of time may take to induce, quote/unquote, every industry to invest here to manufacture, that's the complication with the plan when you see, for example, a goldman sachs report come out suggesting that this actually becomes not just a massive tax but a massive drain on the economy, what do you think a related question because a lot of people have said this. do you believe that the entire across the board tariff would go into effect? or is it a, should we think of it as some kind of negotiating cudgel with china for other things >> i do think it's negotiation, first of all donald trump is a negotiator believes in using tariffs for negotiation but also believes in using tariffs to induce more manufacturing, more capital formation in our country andrew, the problem with the argument here is when people say these tariffs are going to have an effect, donald trump already imposed specific tariffs on specific industries.

you didn't see the negative consequences come to light in fact, you saw rising wages and rising take-home pay when people say you can't do this in a narrow way, can't do it in a broad-based way, that doesn't fit with reality there's a deeper argument here i think donald trump really, again, understands and understood better than a lot of people who said that somehow american prosperity was going to come by shipping our steel sdrand our pharmaceutical industry overseas. they were wrong and he was right. maybe he's right about his policies and the effect they're going to have on the future, too. one of the critical conceits that our bipartisan consensus made over the last 40 years, you can separate manufacture of things from design of things open an iphone i think it says design in cupertino, california. implication, manufactured in shengen, china we're finding the people manufacturing things innovate, become more productive

delv develop critical stingal things. we'll lose our tech edge and be in a world of hurt the. >> the flip side creates an export problem retribution. emails in the past week viewers of "squawk" who are farmers in the midwest worried, deeply worried, depending how these tariffs play out, it's actually going to affect them on the opposite end. >> well, andrew, this actually highlights, again, we have to look at experience versus some of these ridiculous predictions from people who have an ax to grind against donald trump not saying farmers fall in that category when did america, first time in our history become a net it food importer need to take in more food than we export ourselves. when donald trump was president doing all of these things certainly pundits say leads to wild tariffs, we were an

exporter grew more food than we needed an important thing a critical mistake we made, became dependent on foreign nations. now becoming dendindependent foh food our children need to eat. this is insanity every business, every foreign country, every competitor whawants access to american markets can't use chinese slave labor to produce your products. got to use american workers and that's the whole thrust of donald trump's policies. >> and can we talk about big tech >> love to talk about big tech. >> kind of a -- go-ahead. >> an evil company no sometimes benefit from chinese slave labor, yeah. pretty sick. i think a company that wants to benefit from american markets should also have to pay american workers a fair wage. >> i guess that's leading to your feelings on big tech, because it would seem that you are somewhat conflicted.

i want to finally get to -- >> please. >> -- you keep lina khan as, an antitrust concern. so you -- we mentioned steve case peter thiel. strong connections with silicon valley but i think you have a -- talked about your fear of the power of big tech. >> oh, sure. >> so is it a -- is it a complex relationship >> look, a difference between little tech and big tech look at my friends in the tech industry, marc andreesen, peter thiel, folks investing in upstarts some invested in upstarts that became monopolies mike facebook. facebook and going's censoring american citizens making it harder for americans to speak in their own political process is a major problem. yeah, i do think an antitrust solution donald trump started the anti-trust lawsuit against google during his administration the first time and we've got to

be concerned about these mega companies since that are americans. lina khan agree and disagree on some things. you and i might agree on lina khan, i share her view, should be concerned about big tech companies and mergers, the censor ship of american citizens not all mergers and acquisitions are bad. sometimes in the technology space, be private equity space you need to let some companies buy other companies. that's how investors get capital returns, how you promote capital formation. maybe google shouldn't have bought youtube to censor americans, doesn't mean every merge sir bad. >> which are good, which are bad? how do you term that how does american business look at that and say these are areas to proceed instead of living under a fear, we don't know what will happen? >> our antitrust policy is clear. massive, major mergers companies dominating whole markets, extracting massive, massive corporate profits. antitrust laws recognized a

century that's a major problem i don't care about a medium sized business buying a small sized business and i think lina khan eventually has gotten over-aggressive on this. >> i don't know if you saw this piece today. entitlements means tested programs being the real issue you've been reluctant to call for reform of medicare or social security this plays into your favor in basically saying most discretionary income is eaten up by these means tests whether medicaid, food stamps any of these support systems that since bill clinton tried to reform it back in the -- i don't know if you were around. i know i was when he reached, a young guy bit around. >> back then, bottom quintile got $7,000 in inflation adjustmented dollars it's $64,000 of support now that

we have. it's grown -- i mean, beyond anything anyone can imagine. how would you rein that in something that would make sense? >> of course, those dollars deponent go as far as kamala harris's inflationary economic policy. >> this is adjusted -- >> look at this. grow back to 2019. u.s. federal budget about $4.4 trillion in 2024 close to $7 trillion right? $2.5 trillion of additional spending in four years most delta is not social security and medicare. it's discretionary programs, it's a whole host of non-medicare, non-social security, non-discretionary programs, and it's interest on debt which why do we have high interest on debt because we're spending way more money than we have and -- interest rates are higher in part because energy costs are higher and inflation overall is higher when you have inflationary policies and you have policies like kamala harris, which made it harder for americans to by

energy kamala harris policies bad on every policy lower utilities costs, bring the debt down and sdiscretionary spg get it on a much more sustainable pathway. >> talking about that this morning, too energy costs down. expecting the fed to lower rates. >> since kamala harris became vice president costs for american families up 45% right? maybe gone down a little in the past few months but at the baseline from four years ago it's a total disaster, and, again that does lead to higher interest rates which leads to higher debt servicing cougsts. social security and medicare areas to look at a massive fraud problem in social security and medicare because of illegal aliens collecting social security and medicare sometimes faucss fraudy

i have evidence an illegal alien is collecting my social security benefits terrible for the budget. the kamala harris administration said, no we're not revealing private information even if it's an illegal alien stealing your social security and that blows up the federal budget, too before we do anything talking about benefits for americans who earned them deal with the illegal alien fraud in our social security and medicare system that costs us a lot of money, the goldman sachs report is everywhere. heard it the other night vice presidential harris, a lot of the -- analysis that went into that report is based on immigration. and i guess if you were to close the border completely and try to expel 13 million, 15 million -- deport, undocumented people that are here, that would take a half of a percentage point off gdp. every year

to me seems like, things cost money that -- i don't snow if americans would choose to open the southern border allow all the people that come in to stay for a half point of gdp. doesn't make sense to me do you see the analysis positive aspects to, for the jobs market and for the laker situation? with immigration >> seen these reports and, look, for a generation wall street has said that the way to great prosperity in the country flood the country with cheap labor and offsource our manufacturing to places like china, which uses cheap slave labor. that's actually let is communities like springfield, ohio, 20,000 immigrates in and people can't afford to live a good life in this small ohio town if the path to prosperity was flooding your nation with low-wage immigrants, springfield, ohio would be the most prosperous city in the

wor world, and what's actually happened over the past three neer years had a massive influx of illegal labor what's happened? skyrocketing inflation, lower take-home pay. americans more dissatisfied with the direction of the company and an economy in a a generation, and no matter how much wall street says it is. an important distinkds between kamala harris's economic policies and donald trump's economic poses donald trump believes the path to prosperitisy to invest in our country. invest in american workers and build out the middle class and the great american manufacturing sector that provides the foundation for the american middle class kamala harris wants to import cheap labor, offshore manufacturing plants to even cheaper labor overseas that is not the path to prosperity tried it for four years and it has ban failure. >> has been a failure. >> what would be the first regulatory-another trump

administration would begin with on day one >> drill, baby, drill. it's the most important thing we can do lowersy inflation, creates good jobs makes it more competitive to manufacture in our country. a lot of inputs -- >> and on saying this is the greatest renaissance in american energy production ever, under the biden administration >> oh, that's preposterous we're way below baselines in oil production per day talk to folk whose work in natural gas. they'll tell you we could be producing two, three times as much natural gas in this country. a total disaster under the biden/harris administration and look at energy costs how much american, paying for energy compared to three years ago. if it was so successful why are americans payi i ing 40% higher >> producing more crude oil than any country ever. >> producing a lot less crude oil than we could produce. of course, america has a lot of

crude oil. look what we produced under president trump and now under kamala harris, 3 million bearres less per day than we had smarter policies under donald trump. oil is a mistake and kamala harris a disaster by gasoline prices are up, what, 35%, 40%? natural gas where we have, again, we have 500 years of effectively limitless international gas and could power the world. could be sending great energy resources to europe, be absolutely crushes it in the natural gas economy, thanks to krs kamala harris we're not. >> didn't say we wouldn't talk about the debate as it was occurring a common criticism, we don't know anymore, really, about kamala harris' economic policies, about her previous positions. >> sure. >> because president trump didn't prosecute that

properly -- >> i think he did, but, go ahead. >> so you were watching and didn't have frustration with what he was focusing on versus what he could have said about the vice president >> look, i think he absolutely, his closing statement was a critical piece of the debate, driving home the entire message, which is kamala harris wants to the do these great things. kamala harris is currently the vice president of the united states why isn't she doing it now a lot of economic policy are ininsane separate the slogans and platitudes what does kamala harris believe if she believes it, do it now. k actual results of leadership, a w wide-open border, and asking for promotion? i don't think americans were live it to her and i think donald trump made point effectively. i believe the moderators asked

more about ridiculous lies about donald trump more than they asked about the actual -- i think two questions about the economy. kamala harris of course brought up the ridiculous charlottesville hoax instead of defending her actual economic record so there's a lot of -- problems with the debate but think donald trump did a good job the moderators does a discretionary job. >> plenty of places to still go with this. >> yeah. i mean, looking back, will there be a second debate >> and then talk about your debate and how you're going to prepare. does your debate matter? >> i think it matters a lot less than the president's debate. i can check my ego at the door most people are voting for kamala harris or donald trump or frankly against one of those candidates the debate will matter american people care about the vice presidential candidate but the presidential debate matters so much more a second debate? an interesting question. it's telling to me that while some pundits walked away from the debate said kamala harris

did great, the actual undecided voters appear to think donald trump did better >> wasn't just -- a very conservative commentator thought president trump lost the debate. >> i love hugh but i disagree. it's telling that immediately after the debate kamala harris came out and said, yes i'd like to do another debate. if you think things went so well, you're normally not asking for a rematch right away when a boxing match happens the guy who loses is typically the one asking for a rematch i think the american people saw the difference between kamala harris, who's all slogans and platitudes no detail. no real agenda and no real explanation why she said she wanted to ban fracking and now doesn't. wanted to defund the police. now doesn't. said she wanted to open the border now doesn't. can't even explain these viewpoint changes much less the

policy behind them donald trump has a record. the most striking difference two people with a record donald trump, four-year record kamala harris with a nearly four-year record she's running away from the record donald trump is running to his record it was great got to get back to it. >> and one of the first decisions, governor walz, i imagine look at policies in minnesota that were passed by the governor. >> that was -- >> her first decision pick this gentleman. >> exactly right telling that with her first decision she chose to select a guy who wanted to do some ridiculous things in min wanted to give drivers' licences to illegal elaliens usinge my debate to prosecute kamala harris. she'll be president if american people elect her and i have to remind people, of course, donald

trump's presidency was one of peace and prosperity what i will do as well i take these things, try not to over prepare if you are scripted or overrehearsed comes across the wrong way. you don't want to think too much just answer the questions. the way i compare is by reading a lot about the policy, trying to understand how the policy, of course, affects the lives of americans and just answer the questions directly one thing i'll say much different. you guys tougher certainly than the debateoderators were on kamala harris. it's telling that me and donald trump will go anywhere and talk to anybody by the way, unfair, but you've asked me real questions about my record and my views and donald trump's views. why is kamala harris so afraid of actually going before the american media and answering questions? can we trust a person who's terrified of friendly american media to sit in a private room with vladimir putin or xi jinping? i don't.

i think that's why she won't go through the media process. >> you'll get the questions here fine line chili or skyline. >> both good. >> skyline >> my wife loves it. big time she's a vegetarian skyline really good vegetarian or meat chili. very good. >> montana ribs or ice cream >> why not both? >> you can go to -- >> ice cream. >> seriously the best ice cream t. is. >> exists anywhere in america. >> don't cheap out >> glad you're backing me up we could talk about ice cream a while. the tell -- >> greater's for the win. >> quality ice cream, how heavy. heavier it is, they use cream and not milk >> perp ppepperminute stick.

>> we ended on it. thank you. >> andrew. we're getting the european central bank's latest interest rate decision coming out now straight to steve liesman who's got it steve? >> yeah. the european central bank cutting its deposit rate to 350 from 375 main refinancingrate coming down sharply to 365 and marginal lending rate down to 390 three ministers, raised in europe an indication stick to meeting to -- to meeting decision-making. in other words, probably every other meeting so far an expectation in 2025 they accelerate these rate cuts the second cut skip add meeting another one just now we'll see how it goes. saying that they see inflation falling back down to target, 2025 and then again in 2026. lowering the growth forecast andrew, back to you. >> thank you. our next guest is

best-selling author michael louis. wrote so many of my favorites books. i say that, plaplural, "the big risk," "moneyball," "liar's poker. going feign knit about ftx's founder sam bankman-fried. paperback out and recently launched and opinion series for the "washington post" saying it's going in search of "the essential public servant." so much to talk to him about michael, great to have you on the program. >> andrew good to see you. >> i don't know if you had an opportunity to hear j.d. vance love to get your reactions even to that before we get into so many of the other issues anything -- anything strike you? >> well, first reaction, so glad i don't have to run for public office it's just -- i mean, nothing in particular it's -- but having to sort of, like, tell the trump line has got to be hard on tv he comes on and says stuff and

some of it's true. some is not. the thing that i guess, that he's been saying lately that, you know, speaks directly to some of the work you just mentioned, that are insistence, this thing called the deep state and come in and politicize the federal workforce. and the series, it's not just me i've curated a group of seven writers, air-dropped them into the federal workforce. who are these people j the deep state the stories are amazing. tear-jerking public service, and i would love for the trump operation to sort of like being poked and prodded a bit more about this plan. the project 2025 plan. that, we're going to sort of like eliminate huge chunks of the federal workforce. make 50,000 political employees to fire them on a whim and they're poked and prodded on

that i mean, i think the answer's going to be embarrassing it is not a way to run the federal government in some cases kind of a little dangerous. that's the -- but -- that's what j.d. vance has been talking about lately that sort of caught my ear. >> michael, two things one is former president trump said that, he's repeatedly said not favored the 2025 plan but has said he's absolutely in favor of is elon musk's suggestion to him and he now wants elon musk to effectively run a group of people to look at efficiencies inside the government you spent a lot of time looking inside the government. how much efficiency is there really to wring out? >> this is a great question. it's not, not the worst idea in the world. like to turn the public's attention to the efficiency of the federal government there are things that can be done i mean, but it's almost in the opposite direction of the noise he's been making i mean, we have 4,000

presidential appointees who run the government and their nominations are held up for years in congress. so respectively the management layer, the top of the workforce is hamstrung that's something you want to address. i mean, eliminates some of that friction. there -- you know, there is, i'm sure, you go into some of these agencies and there's lard, fat and waste. of course, there is in the private sector you actually find when you kick around what most people, they're obscure agencies department of labor or commerce or agriculture, is you find, like, people doing their best at really kind of a mission-critical job, in spite of the kind of a hostile public, in spite of a neglectful congress in spite of management that turns over every two years

i'm sure there are things to do. i'm just not so sure the spirit in which they operate is the best spirit to come in these are wasteful, inefficient corrupt people i'm going to whip them into shape firing them and politicizing the rest. doesn't sound like a good approach. >> you've covered wall street, silicon valley, business a long time and the politics and policy of it all. it feels like with this election there are more folks in the world of business taking a political role or a very vocal role and maybe a function of social media i don't know where you have clear divisions now in silicon valley, for example. you know -- it just seems different. is it different? >> you know, this is a longer conversation, but i think one of the things that's happened is social media forced everybody feeling like they have to have an opinion and there's a mechanism to have

a quick opinion. so that people are, you know, they're out there, and they're saying things and they get angered in opinion and all of a sudden in a tribe, and they're sort of forced to defend that. as opposed to just doing the business of people historically and lay low and let the storm pass. so i think that's partly it. and partly i mean, really, these are such polarized times right? you've got to pick sides and you're constantly asked to pick a side. >> can you just -- just -- pause half a second. we have some economic data coming through and then i want to continue the conversation on the other side get over to rick santelli who's got those august price numbers. >> yes start with jobless claims. 230,000. up from 228,000. remember, did have a holiday that could effect continuing claims which once again are over 1.8 million. 1 million 850. look at final demand headline up

0.2. hotter than we thought up 0.3, hotter ex, food energy and trade up 0.3. 1.7 year on year, progress 2.4 year over year on core that remains exactly the same as it's been. remove energy, food and trade, 3.3, which it's been averaging all of these, of course, on year over year rather steady. back to the interview but will come back and dig deeper into these ppi numbers. andrew, back to you. >> rick, thanks. the market not moving hugely on the back of that as we look at the cpi yesterday. ppi today and going to waiting how the fed might treereact to l of it. michael, back to the policy political conversation you were talking about social media and how it's forced everybody in some way to speak out one way or the other, but are you surprised at the fault lines even within industries

now? like silicon valley? you have folks historically maybe considered left or liberal, splitting in this sort of unique way that they have >> you know, not really. silicon valley always had a right-wing streak in it. so, no not really at all. i mean, i think it's just louder right? i can see this in a smaller way in response to my books. books come out people get angry used to hear it a little bit now it's amplified massively on social media it's amplified and people, the big thing people get identified, wedded to and identified by some point of view that they have publicly expressed and they're sort of stuck with it and then get attacked for it and get their backs up against a wall and it escalates. i don't think. first time i covered silicon valley was during the internet

bubble i remember wandering around, surprised by how many republicans there were there just they were quiet so, no it doesn't surprise me. >> i want to talk about this paperback of, your book, about sbf, sam bankman-fried a couple things happening by the way right now. carolyn ellison testified against sam bankman-fried, her sentencing is happening soon we now have the government saying that they believe there should be no prison time as somebody who was in the middle of this and who knew caroline and new ryan salame and sam bankman-fried what do you think about prison time? >> you were going to sentence her? i don't know >> you know a lot. you probably know more than the judge does >> so can i make a slightly different point? rather than sentencing people on television the slightly different point is, we take for granted, something's

very peculiar about our judicial process. we plea bargain. three close to sandbagging fried, they are incentivized to say certain things in exchange for years of their lives if you told this to an english person, sounds corrupt paying people to testify it does -- wears the narrative in the courtroom into shocking ways i don't -- god knows what's going to happen. the judge seems very ill-disposed towards everybody except caroline. when he was -- when he was rendering sam's verdict and sam, put sam in jail 258 years seemed kind of sweet on caroline and thought she sort of identified the pieces of sam's character that had led to the catastrophe.

so i would guess she's going to get less than the other two witnesses, but i'd be surprised if she got nothing >> what do you think of this ryan salame situation? you have, he's coming back and saying he was lied to effectively by the government. that he effectively testified in part to present his wife, his partner and now that she's not protected. they've gone back on that and as a result the entire situation should be upended? >> so i was surprised that anybody could violate our campaign finance laws the way they are seems to me you can kind of do almost anything you want right now with money in politics and the thought that anybody was going to be sent away for seven and a half years for campaign finance violations would have shocked me before all of this happened i would have loved to have seen a trial. and, you know, i don't think he can go back. i mean, the judge said he can't go back, but, yes. this is at the bottom of it.

right? sort of like these winks and nods between the defense and prosecution, and people come away with what they think is an understanding what the deal is even though it's not in print. and anything can happen. and kaplan could throw caroline in jail for 20 years so i -- i mean, they've got a judge who's famously a harsh sentencer. he's clearly irked especially by the whole ftx situation and the political campaign law violation. i assume sentence would be on the hard side. >> michael michael lewis, great to see you. >> thanks for having me. >> see you soon. back to that -- breaking inflation data just got it. bring in former fed vice chair

roger ferguson, former president and ceo of tiaa, and a cnbc contributor. also rick santelli and steve liesman. steve, let's get a quick reaction from you first and then i think rick wanted to put meat on the bone of that report that he talked about. oh, start with that, doing that as well, steve. >> yeah. i'm going to tell you about the meat looks like the miss which i think rick and i may have different consensus numbers. 0.2 on the headline right on according to the dow jones rick may use a different one up 0.3. the other two a bit hotter key, trade services number up, a measure of margins it falling 1.7 in the prior month. so the expectation was that there is margin compression going on in the economy right now, and that was proven last

month. this month it didn't follow through. i'm trying to figure out which of the trade services had that increase i think the bottom line on this and leave it there is that the fed would likely look through these trade services numbers, pushing up the ppi and not see much inflation in that margin area there especially if it is, as i suspect, linked to portfolio management and brokerage services, which tend to go up when the stock market goes up, joe. >> rick, you know something? >> yeah. i mean, there's a couple of things i think are key once again, steve's absolutely right, but i can take every number over the last 46 years covering the market and you can pull things out that you think moved in a crazy way that's the way the numbers are always something embedded in them to make a long story short, the only area we had any improvement on at all final demand year over year headline number 1.7. consider this, yes, 1.7 rearview

mirror 2.1 guess when it was in january 1% it was lower yes, made progress, but not dramatic progress. if you look at all the other year over year, and really this is a warm report i'd like to hear what mr. ferguson has to say. 2.4, remain s 2.4. and head-snapping revisions on ppi month over month ex food and energy made last month go from 0 to minus 0.2. argue it's levelling or up half a percent. slice and dice it any way one wants. it didn't make a big difference in the market because the tells na already in what's happening next week >> bring in roger ferguson, former fed vice chair, and former president ceo of tiaa

roger, i think about you sometimes that -- you're one of these people that gets paid to worry, i think i think you were really worried about inflation staying sticky and not being totally vanquished and i wonder if you're in a good place about what the fed's getting ready to do, and i think, have you come around to the notion that you need to worry a little less at this point? or still worried >> well, look, two or three different questions, and i want to answer them in order. first, the 25 basis point reduction at the upcoming meeting is baked in, warranted the market had been debating 50 basis points versus 25 i never understood where the 50 basis point came from. so 25 basis points i think is the most likely expectation. and perhaps more of the same this year. point two -- you know, headline inflation has been moving very gradually now

so i think there's still reason to be worried. point three, and rick santelli's right. you can take these apart and slice and dice them. what i've been focused on is places that do appear to be consistently sticky. one of which is housing. i think there's some construction going on there. overall, count me still in the camp of, yes i think the fed's right to be more comfortable that inflation is coming down, but i think they're going to be on very gradual path, because there are elements of stickiness there we simply can't ignore. >> you are still worried and like i said. >> i'm okay. >> you consistently have been right as we've pointed out many times about that i think rick's worried about that as well, but most people at this point have shifted their main concern to growth worries now, roger, and they don't seem to give inflation concerns the same way anymore >> i think that's, again, you know, overdone so people have gotten very

focused on the unemployment number where it's moved up quite significantly. i remind people that the number 4.2 in the old days, put it that way, was considered close to full employment. i think on the labor market side we have a very balanced economy. not one that's falling inner balance or falling out of bed, so to speak. and look at gdp number we're still growing roughly around trim. not every report is exactly the same so you know, i have been on occasion sometimes worried we're going to have a hard landing if the fed didn't calculate it right. recession fears right now are probably misplaced, and i think the market may be misreading the notion any ongoing weakness in lab sir going to trigger an automatic response i think the focus should stay on, is inflation really coming down watch the labor markets.

right now seems a market roughly in balance, not a market falling out of bed. >> great roger ferguson, thanks rick santelli, thank you you have to -- this is your job, but thank you, anyway. see you guys. and gillian out with news on hiv prevention drug. more on that story right now angelica >> right gidiad saying twice yearly shot for hiv prevention prevented almost all cases of hive in a study of men who have sex with men. 96% reduction in the incidence of hiv earlier this summer they shared other results from a trial in women and the shot in that trial actual lip prevented all cases of hiv so this is a really important step for the company they plan to move forward and file for approval later this year and could maybe reach the market by next year. and analysts we've talked to think this could be about a $2

billion opportunity for gilead and a lot of controversy around making sure people can actually get this and other prep, and gilead today saying they are working with partners to make sure that they can provide the drug in low and middle income countries around the world and so they are saying that they are in the process of working on contracts there and they'll have more to share on that soon. >> thank you by the way, gilead shares up by about 2.25% on this news. a new report out this morning charting the huge economic impact of latinos on the u.s. economy it finds that the u.s. latino gdp reached 3.6 trillion dollars. that equates to about the fifth largest economy in the world for more on this we want too bring in in truhillo put out th report joining us from the annual latino showcase latitude in san

diego. the partner of latitude and our parent comcast is sponsor of the event. break it down for us what did you learn, what should people be paying attention to? >> first let me say good morning to everybody. >> good morning. >> it's a pleasure to be here. the good news, again, once again, that the latino cohort is almost like a half silver bullet for our economy in terms of buoying everything, whether it be the complete gdp number 3.6 trillion it's about manufacturing, almost 450 billion dollars worth of manufacturing, accounting for about 17% of our manufacturing productivity inside out of country. it's about population growth, about entrepreneurship ubiquitous across the country. numbers are big. probably before end of the decade the u.s. latino cohort

will pass japan, pass germany, and it's just a vibrant power. so i heard age little earlier a conversation about immigration and all that sort of thing anybody that says it's bad is kind of like, okay you don't understand how this economy has worked for a couple hundred years-plus, in terms of size but the latino cohort is now across all sectors growing, and i would say that's the big news, becky. the numbers are big in and of themselves, the absolutes, but across all sectors it's happening, and that's the beauty of how our economy is being kept up and growing faster in this cohort than any others by 2.5 to 3 times on consumption, and virtually all other metrics. >> dig into that i think you're probably referring to j.d. vance's comments earlier on the show donald trump's running mate and taking a strong stance along

with former president trump in terms of illegal immigration and the crackdown they would say how do you distinguish between illegal immigration and legal immigration and what do you think this country should be doing? >> well, becky, joe and i had a really good conversation a week or so ago about that i'm a believer in smart immigration. i don't believe in illegal immigration, but we need to fix our processes. i went through that the last time i was on the show and i think there are smart ways to do it it's like big companies. how they process people. how they process customers how they process bills how they process almost anything we've left our immigration system back in the '70s or '80s in terms of our process, our technologies et cetera, and so having this conversation about, is it good or it's bad it's really silly, in my opinion, because now we have numbers that show it's all good, but let's focus on how we solve this notion of people having to

cross illegally, perhaps, or without documents, perhaps we can fix that and we can create inventories of workers that we need train people companies are willing to do that, and so it's, it should be a business conversation and let's fix it, because businesses know how to fix process. >> on that business side of the conversation what about manufacturing in from? that's an area the report dug into what did you find? >> well, the good news there is, again, the latino cohort is now accounting for about 17% of the manufacturing output here in our country. and the reason why that's good news is, we learned during covid this radical effect on supply clayne, because we had so much manufacturing elsewhere, and with the disruptions that occurred, you know, most businesses, costs increased. back to the inflation issue. they've lost workers

back to the inflation issue. and so the latino cohort has been stepping up they're getting involved and in new types of businesses, but centered on manufacturing as part of that so that's the good news. there's a bigger supply chain out there, and now companies need to learn how to take advantage of the supply chain and start using additional suppliers, new suppliers in that process and there's plenty of latino founders of companies that are now stepping up >> latino consumption and purchasing power you say has grown two and a half times faster than that of non-latinos. do you think the u.s. business community recognizes that and is investing appropriately? >> well, that's a great question becky, the simple, easy answer is, no not enough. but at the same time, it's not easy to fix and change processes and how you focus.

i think one of the biggest issues we have in our country is, you have these dramatic growth numbers out of the latino cohort with just the smallest amount of investing capital going there. and we've talked about that in prior years, prior years, and now, it's becoming more exacerbated. just think what our growth rates could be in our country's economy if capital is flowing. so, i'm making an appeal now to, are there any remaining capitalists in the country that look to invest where the growth is and i say that a little bit facetiously. i'm serious about it, that there's not enough capital flowing so that equity capital can start helping create more companies, accelerate their growth, and accelerate their opportunities to solve some of the economic -- core economic problems that we have. the baby boomer cohort was so successful, but they're disappearing, and so, now we

need a replacement team. >> saul, thank you saul trejillo, great to see you. >> good to see you thank you. when we come back, some big-name companies moving away from dei initiatives now, the human rights campaign is responding. we will speak exclusively with that group's president stay tuned you're watching "squawk box," and this is cnbc

welcome back to "squawk box. major u.s. companies have been

walking back their internal diversity, equity, and inclusion policies, they will stop submitting data to lgbtq+ advocacy group, the human rights campaign here with her response and some news to all of it, human rights campaign president kelley robinson so curious what you think of what's happening and what you think it means >> look, these are short-sighted decisions. the human rights campaign foundation has been working for over 25 years in partnerships with companies across this country to make sure that they have best in class benefits for lgbtq+ workers, to ensure that they're reducing the instances of harassment and discriminaon in the workplace to make sure that they are showing up for a community that has $1.4 trillion of pieing power and represents 30% of generation z, because by doing that, they are doing work not only to support the future of the workforce and the consumer base but also to support their bottom line. so, what we're seeing from these companies is shortsighted and it's a wrong decision for

businesses we're announcing a 25-point deduction to the corporate equality index scores for those companies that rolled back their commitments to our communities it's important that we have accountability here and that employees and consumers alike and shareholders too get to see the impact of these decisions on these companies. >> so, kelley, what do you think is happening do you think it's just become politicized, and so some of the leaders of the companies that i just mentioned are on one political side of the aisle? do you think that there's an -- there is a customer-facing issue where actually there are people who will buy products or not buy products based on some of these policies or at least what their perception of these companies are? >> you know, i think we're not telling the whole story here sure, there are a handful of companies that are making these poor, shortsighted decisions, but at the end of the day, in the 2025 cei that will come out early next year, we have over 1,400 companies participating, representing over 21 million

employees across this country. that is the highest participation our corporate equality index that we have ever had. so, while you may see ford backing away, you have every other auto manufacturer in this country that's participating in the cei, from chevy to dodge to subaru, so what i want to make clear is that this is not where the majority of the companies are. it's not just out of the kindness of their hearts it's because they know this is what the workforce and consumers demand employees are 4.5 times more likely to want to work at a company that is explicit in their support for the lgbtq+ company. consumers are two times more likely to want to buy from brands that support the community. this is, bottom line, the best thing to do for businesses, and that's why i think that we're seeing so much energy from employees, from consumers, and from shareholders starting to push back on these decisions that these companies have made >> kelley, let me ask you about the supreme court decision as it relates to affirm fative actiona

universities and whether you think that's impacted these decisions. >> there's no denying that there is a tension in the business community right now related to the political nature of some of these issues that are popping up, and unfortunately, it's nothing new. the same sort of narratives that we saw coming out of the supreme court are mirroring the horrific anti-lgbtq+ policies we've seen in hundreds of bills in states across this country, but at the end of the day, when i think about the work of the corporate equality index, it is about trust, and it's about partnership with businesses to make workplaces as inclusive as possible for lgbtq+ people i mean, we're talking about health care benefits to ensure that people have all the opportunities to create their family, regardless of your sexual orientation, things like ivf and adoption benefits. we're talking about before stock, reducing discrimination in the workplace this is not political. this is about people it's about employees it's about their consumers, and it's about the future of business the reason that a lot of companies started to do dei work

was a risk mitigation tactic there are financial and employment risks to having toxic workplaces the cei is a tool that we have used in partnership to help companies get better, to be their best selves, to get the best results from their employees. that work is going to continue because over 1,400 companies understand the value in it >> right kelley, i don't disagree with that the question i would ask you this, though, is for example, how you think about what happened to target how you think about what happened to bud light and what you think the implications of those situations are for other business leaders who watched those scenarios play out, and i would argue, to those companies that actually have stepped away from some dei programs, the ones we've discussed, they're looking at those examples and saying, is that going to happen to us how should we think about that >> absolutely. and i think that's where the partnership part comes in. you've got some forces that are operating in the dark crevices

of the internet, some extremists, some people with no business acumen or knowledge at all that are threatening companies. meanwhile, you've got organizations like the human rights campaign foundation that are operating in the light of truth, trust, accountability and transparency we've partnered with companies like target. we are partnering with over 1,400 companies across the board because we know at the end of the day, they've invested decades of work into increasing their inclusive practices in the workplaces because it is good for business that work, despite the political moment that we're in, must continue, and i think that the risk of not continuing this work is at the peril of their business i mean, we just released a report that said 80% of lgbtq+ people are willing to boycott companies that step away from their inclusive practices for the community. 80%. almost a fifth of lgbtq+ workers are willing to either quit or look for a new job if their companies roll back their commitment the risk is clear. and we're their partners in helping them to figure out the path forward >> kelley, we want to thank you for joining us this morning.

appreciate it very much. got to send it over to joe >> okay, andrew, thanks. we'll get a final check on the -- don't have a lot of time now. we have moderated a little after that ppi number. we're down now, the nasdaq, actually in the negative the dow jones, just barely up. okay you're here tomorrow, andrew we will see you. welcome you back and you'll be here we'll all be here. join us. "squawk on the street" is next ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post known of the new york stock exchange premarket is trying to build on wednesday's big upside reversal. ecv cuts rates for the second time in three months ppi prints in line claims are steady. adobe tonight. our road map begins with those fed expectations, though keeps investor hopes alive the fed will start cutting rates