tv Closing Bell CNBC September 12, 2024 3:00pm-4:00pm EDT
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that >> and the bucks have a dynamite team >> but they're in the hole because of the salary cap. >> they're losing money because of that. they can opt out, they're free, high priced stars, but they're going for the title. >> takes money to make money "closing bell" starts right now. thanks very much and welcome to "closing bell." live today from san francisco. this hour begins with a continued rebound for stocks which are tracking for their fourth straight day of gains led by a big bounce for tech 60 minutes to go in regulation major averages are all higher today. you see the gains here nicely up for the nasdaq and the russell leads the way today and that is following that in line ppi report today a big day for big tech nvidia is higher once again. it's now up more than 15% this week alone several other chip names, too,
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they are up sharply as that trade gathers steam. a nice rebound across the board. there's broadcom up more than 4% how about meta and alphabet? they're jumping today. how best to play the markets now as the tape tries to broaden once again let's welcome in dan greenhouse. the chief strategist for solis good to see you again. >> thank you, sir. >> it's been really a fantastic three days here. what do you make of this rebound? >> listen, we've talked about this and all of us on the show have talked about this for some time recession worries are lingering in the air the latest thing are the comments coming out of some conferences. you were at one. the real estate conference where some financials made some negative comments. gained some play but i think at the end of the day, my favorite saying, the u.s. consumers continues to do well the economy continues to do well profits continue to print above
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expectations so while we had a meaningful sell off driven by some ai names, the rebound seems justified because it doesn't seem like these issues are broadening out beyond what we've seen thelast few quarters. >> what about the reversal yesterday? the price action in the market was so interesting to follow if you had only tuned in at the end of the day, obviously, you would have missed a pretty good story. here we are week to date, nasdaq's up better than 5% s&p's up almost 3.5. what do you make of that >> i took a look earlier today it's not unusual to see a market, at one point down a full percentage point then close up a full percentage point. that's not completely unusual but it is also the type of thing that you sometimes see at market bottoms. you saw it in october of '22 when the market bottomed you saw it around the time of the covid low in 2020. saw it back in 2011.
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there's a few nmore instances where it occurred. those of us that have been in markets for a while yo, you looa that action and say okay, it doesn't necessarily automatically mean capitulation but there are instances where that signifies capitulation and it's possible yesterday was one of them. >> it's that 5600 level that here we are, here we are again, on the s&p that's sort of been the main line in the sand that we've had a reasonably tough time getting over >> yeah. listen, i mean, the latest thing of course is the yield curve on inverting and as a long standing card carrying member of the yield curve inversion matters. team on the show it's obviously something to pay attention to that the 210s curve is in positive territory although not firmly. call it a couple of basis points three, four, five. but the curve invasion is the latest thing that's giving
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people worry whatever the inversion may or may not be saying, you can counter that by looking at credit spreads which remain for ig, both well contained. i think you look at cross assets and you continue to get the same message which is that for now, everything looks a okay and likely to continue along that path >> does 50 or 25 or 50 basis points matter at this point? i mean, i asked you, i know obviously where expectations are. not just from most of the market participates we speak to, but even ceos. you mentioned the conference i was at yesterday spoke to david solomon, chairman ceo of goldman sachs it was their conference. i want you to listen to what he told me about what he thinks is going to happen. >> our best guess is 25 but i think there's a case to be made for 50 based on more softening of the labor market. i think we'll see. i think the percentage chance was in the low 30s >> so how do i handle that
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so 25 obviously likely but the case for 50 implies that 50 might be needed. how do you see it? >> well, listen. i know plenty of people in markets. informed, educated, astute followers of markets in economics that think no case there's no case for a rate cut and think the fed should stay. i think this is one of the more confusing moments in time from a predictive standpoint. as i've said repeatedly on the show, i think they're going to cut by 25 basis points and it will be the first of several cuts the case for 50 is that the fed is just too far behind the curve. inflation has now normalized you're somewhere in the mid twos and with the economy slowing down, although from a high pace in the end of last year, and the labor market weakening, the fed is looking like they are off sides. this is the 50 basis point
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argument so what is the reason to go slow to getting back onsides? you're going to have to cut by 100 basis points there's validity to that argument as i find it in my own arg argument, which is they should reduce by 25 basis points as they would for standing pat. again, i don't think there's a concrete case. there often is, but i don't think there is this time around that they should cut by any one of these three scenarios when you look at markets, the home builders, some of the retail names, a lot of these cyclical parts of the stock market are at or near highs and i don't think that i see in assets any sort of broad, economic worries the likes of which would justify a more rapid pace of a rate reduction i can point to any number of sectors of the stock market that are doing just well with rates at 530 or whatever >> what do you think the more
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important signal is in the market is it as i mentioned off the top, the bounce back in tech the fact that the nasdaq is having a little run here or is weakness in the financials >> i mean, listen. the banks had a good run i haven't, but the show has been talking about jpmorgan and some of the comments made but that stock's sitting at or near a high. the financials, again, the banks, are sort of a separate story right now. it's the market i find the rebound in tech to be the most encouraging. you know, again, genson spoke the other day. i'm sure that's been discussed ad nauseam across the network. i don't follow this as closely as others, but i just don't see the case or any evidence of a demand slowdown coming from any of the major players in the space. nvidia, broadcom or further down the spectrum i don't see the data points. the commentary
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we've heard from any number of important ceos and individuals in the tech space making the case as you discussed with brad. the case for overinvestment rather than under. they're quite clear about this so for now, that hamster wheel is still spinning so from a broad market standpoint to the extent you dance with who brought you, it's encouraging to see the tech stocks rebounding the way they have. >> let's bring in joe, ioaka great to have you with us. joe's a cnbc contributor it's the price action, joe, yesterday, that did get your attention. especially in the nasdaq the last time the nasdaq was down one plus percent intraday and finished up over 1% was in october of 2022. >> you have to respect price yesterday what we witnessed in the futures market, options market, a tremendous amount of buying when the s&p was between
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54 and a quarter and 54.50 that's a very strong message that the market is sending and it appeared as though in the month of september equities, in particular technology, were trading as if they were guilty until proven innocent. yesterday is a compelling inflection point and you now reverse that theory to where technology is once again innocent until it can be proven guilty and we'll find that out when earnings are reported in october. >> so joe, you wouldn't sell into this strength i'm curious. the issues that have existed, issues in quotes, if you think there were issues in some of these tech names that maybe their valuations were extended, they sold off, now, here, they're back so you wouldn't sell into that if you think those same issues persist. >> i don't know if i would say valuation is the biggest concern that i have. it was more about the overwhelming enthusiasm.
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sentiment was at a fever pitch and positioning. it appears that the carry trade through august the positions were rebuilt rather quickly in megacaps and technology and i think we ought to offer some relief to that position gagain. i think that effort was successful and indicative of the type of price action we saw yesterday morning. >> what do you make of the markets here >> i think all the issues that we've just been discussing, the seasonality issues of september. we know september tends to be a seasonally rough month -- >> all right we're going to work on her mike. as i hear, you hear. we're having a bit of an issue there. so we'll deal with that. but dan, i know we're going to try to get her back. she's going to make the argument that despite the selloff we've had recently, that the s&p 500 is too expensive what would you say to that i'm sure she's not the only one who thinks valuations have
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gotten too rich. if you want to call it 21 times. >> i think there's two arguments to be made the first is who determines what's too expensive and a corollary to that is i've been told the s&p's been too expensive for the better part of two years. the last time i heard it was attractive was 2012 or 2013. the second part of that is, we've all made this case or some version of this case for several quarters now the broad market gets more expensive because tech is a larger portion of the market as we know the largest portion. and since it trades at a premium valuation, it drags up the broad market, the valuation. so i don't think it's a correct argument to say the market is expensive if you want to argue that technology is trading at too rich of a valuation, fine. but the argument that the market is too expensive is just a second derivative argument of that the better way of looking at this is to look at the equal
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weighted index and say okay, this is a particular moment of time, 2000, where we need to look at each stock more equivalently rather than just these five or six names that are doing the heavy lifting. the equal weighted index is much more reasonably valued than a tis the broad market index because of those large tech names. justifiably so in many respects. >> welcome good to have you i did mention, not sure if you heard, i'll rehash it. that you are making the argument today that despite the selloff, you think that the valuation of the s&p is too expensive you want to state why? >> sure. hopefully my audio's okay. but you know, we are expecting earnings growth, at least the market is expecting earnings growth of over 14% in 2025 i think that's a little bit too high this year in 2024, we're going to get about 10% earnings growth
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off of 6% revenue growth and you know, the market's still expecting that 6% revenue growth in 2025, but they're expecting that acceleration in earnings and we think it needs to come in a little bit and jpmorgan's comments i think prove that you know, there is a little bit of an overestimation in terms of estimates for 2025 >> i asked a question earlier what was a more important sign in the market right now. the tech rebound or weakness in the financials sounds to me like you would answer that it's the latter. the weakness in financials and maybe some of those concerns that we heard out of conference season this week >> i think it's more just a reflection of sentiment and the estimates going into 2025. i think we're working a lot of that off, whether it be the nvidia overenthusiasm or just the overexpectations in 2025
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>> joe, you want to take issue with this? let's debate it. >> i think what has to happen now is we have to see at a certain point here, a handoff where you need to see financials and other areas of the large cap equity size class perform once again. i think we'll come to that point in the near term, but from the perspective of trying to figure out what earnings are going to be in 2025, one could make the argument that they're probably too high i get that, but there's a lot of unknown variables that can affect earnings. the election result. what legislation might look like what in fact is going to be the path of monetary policy. how aggressive are the rate cuts ultimately going to be how far is inflation going to come down. and what's going to happen is are the chinese going to be exporting the deflation they're now exporting into europe. does that eventually come here i think there's a tremendous amount of variables where i'm not willing to say okay, i expect earnings growth is going
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to implode and therefore, i'm going to disregard the message that the market is clearly sending me that the winners in the market are clearly sending me and move to the sidelines i think you have to pay heed to what we're seeing here this week because i view it as remarkably compelling >> dan, this becomes the critical argument here adam parkers's made it on this very program that earnings estimates if they are too high down the road looking ahead, then the multiple is too high. so maybe we're not going to be able to answer this question for a quarter or a few how's that impact how we want to think about the market then? >> listen, the biggest driver of s&p 500 earnings growth is gdp growth and if the economy continues to do fine -- clearly there are troubles at the low end consumer domestically. troubles out of china where growth hasn't held up. but an important driver if not the biggest driver of domestic earnings growth is economic growth and in my forecast and
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most peoples' forecast, there's no recession on the horizon. the economy should continue to grow are we going to grow 10, 15% eps growth maybe not. maybe 7 to 9%. 7 to 11% but i find that more than enough to continue supporting broad market gains listen again, for the broad market, valuation of the tech stocks is important. if someone suggests something's wrong with blackwell or other issues come to pass, they're going to sell off and the broad market's going to go with it but just back to the equal weighted argument look at the card stocks. if something was wrong with the consumer, amex and those types of companies would not be doing what they're doing costco, walmart, bjs those large retailers. any number of companies that are working, of stories working that have nothing to do necessarily
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with interest rates that continue to suggest that the economy and consumer is doing fine and exploitbly, you can take advantage of that if you step away from the tech names. those big names are doing a lot of heavy lifting and if something goes wrong there, the broad market's going to sell off. >> what about volatility which has all but imploded again this week but we've learned not to get too over your skis on that because it can flare up at any moment and as the two gentlemen have said, there are plenty of reasons ahead that could cause volatility to spike again. >> absolutely. i think we're just in that time frame in which you know, seasonally, volatility does pick up and then usually after the election, there is a little bit of a lowering of overall volatility into the new year so i think we just have to wait it out a lot of the headlines are going to come about and be an issue but i think over the long-term when you look out into 2025 as
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dan said, whether we get ten or 14 isn't going to matter too much in terms of earnings growth as long as it is positive. >> joe, give you the last word on volatility. one of the first things i looked at today of course, the vix, which is you know, we've showed it barely above 17. s >> i do think volatility is going to remain elevated and just because volatility is elevated, that doesn't mean that the market goes down i think what you have to focus on is the fact that we're having significant range expansion here in the month of september. range expansion on bearish days. range expansion on bullish days. that's indicative of an environment that suggests a much higher volatility regime that means if you're participating in the market, the way you're sizing your position, you have to keep in mind that volatility is going to be extreme and it's going to try
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and shake you out. just look at the price action today. we've had multiple times where we've seen the s&p fall 25, 30 handles then quickly recover i think that's the environment that we're in here in the fall so i don't think you want to bet on a lower volatility environment. >> guys, we'll leave it there. appreciate very much we'll see all of you soon. to steve kovach now for a look at the biggest names moving into the close. >> shares of moderna are tanking today after the drugmaker said it would slash more than a billion dollars in research and development expenses by 2027 they also said they plan to launch ten new products through 2027 but will also put the brakes on some other products. it's part of their attempt to chart the path forward after the decline of its covid business. and gilead said its twice yearly by for hiv infections in a new study. it was called quote, solid and
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consistent and said it sets the stage for likely approval for the drug and market launch by 2025 >> thank you we're just getting started coming up next, the cofounder and president of the premier lacrosse league. he's going to join us to talk all things sports and media rights we'll talk about this after this break when we come back. honey... but the gains are pumping! the market's closed. futures don't sleep in the after hours, bro. dad, is mommy a “finance bro?” she switched careers to make money for your weddings. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think.
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i'm sorry i'm not there with you, but it's great to have you. >> great to be back. looking forward to seeing you in philadelphia at the game >> what are you expecting this weekend? >> we're expecting a big crowd, a live broadcast on abc at 3:00 p.m. eastern time. we have our end of the year awards on friday a street event with investors of the pll. the other founders and the big game it's a culminating moment for any league >> i mentioned viewership being up your semifinal was the most watched game in the history of your league. why is that? that's happening >> i would say audience growth, one. and two, if kwyou look at the proliferation of streaming, part of it is leagues deciding to go exclusive on the platform. we saw it with peacock on an nfl playoff game if you revisit old times of cable, one of the big turns of the '90s was putting unc versus
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duke basketball on there you hope those bets are right. in our case, it was the most streamed game we've had. so we're looking forward to seeing those numbers grow. >> you founded your league basically on the idea of a touring model, right rather than having teams in home cities you would think that you would need home cities to generate more fandom. in fact, there's been enough popularity and growth in the game that you've been able to kind of overcome that. where are you on that, touring versus home teams? >> touring model looks more similar to f1, ufc, wwe, tennis and golf than it does traditional basketball or baseball or football we took a look at the lacrosse audience size. it was 15 million. now we're at 46 million. we're still touring but this was thefirst year we took our eigh home teams into cities and we've been touring in those markets.
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the next it ration might look like a traditional home and away model where we would consider selling those teams to individual ownership groups. i think pro sports are about attention aggregated across platforms, revenue, digging in and building community, then real estate. >> what about the olympics >> we're excited about it. given the networks of nbc broadcast the olympics what are the olympics going to mean for your sport? >> massive, scott. it was a how long lift this past summer in paris for nbc. i think the games were up on average about 86% compared to the tokyo games. about 30 million people during that 2:00 to 5:00 window in america watching, which is unbelievable exposure. that's football level exposure for emerging sports. lacrosse was in the olympics in 1904 and 1908. we're now back, so credit to casey washington and his team to sort of move us back into that direction. so if we look at where we're at
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now this 2024, where we're going to be in 2028, a lot of those changes to our touring model might happen between then as well as a new media rights deal as we look beyond next year. >> when you look at the deals that have been done recently, the nba most specifically because it's the most recent deal done, what do you take from that as you look to your own >> i think sports are just becoming more and more important and likely the best investment a media company can make you have your mvps, cable service providers and youtube and hulu live which are giving these networks affiliate fees. to have a sport, you're going to see higher fees to the network number two is advertising. when you look at live sports, television, entertainment is no longer like that because we can watch whenever we want television is in about 60 million homes today on the cable
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side still a $60 billion advertising business i think it's been more reconciliation than attrition if you look at ratings from a sports standpoint because sports fans are still showing up to television the third is direct to consumer. streams numbers are growing then if you have sports and sports ip, you can create original programming where you either distribute and grow your subscription base or license like a lot of the folks at warner media are doing >> you say popularity then throw in increasing media rights, it lifts valuations what is your league now worth and where do you go from here if there is an off ramp >> well, scott, i can't tell you that right now. we have a great board led by joe ty, arkto. caa and a number of great investors. people like david blitzer who helped build this thing from scratch. our first round we raised was just several million dollars to we could launch this thing since then, we've done in the
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teen of multiple and growth. if you look at teams, valuation multiples are anywhere eight to 12 times revenue depending on the time and stage of the lead. the most recent was fc and bog iger investing the post. >> we just came out with our own valuations list. cowboys are $11 billion. the growth has been remarkable but do you think there's a trickle down effect if you will that has valuations of the biggest boats rise for the smaller ones, it has that residual impact? >> no doubt. i think part of what i talk about with attention to revenue, community, and real estate, you have the enterprise valuation. but the other piece is scarcity. when it comes to pro sports especially if you're a top league with the best talent, that's the only place to go. if you look at historically even the nba, i believe from 2002 to
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2021, the nba teams are up 1,000% so that beats the s&p. that beats real estate in marmajor markets in america there's this intersection of pro sports into entertainment and culture which is a big part of driving those valuations. >> good luck this weekend. for more on sports, my colleague, mike, breaking a story today that former nba player junior bridgeman is buying a stake in the milwaukee bucks. you can get more on that at cnbc.com/sport up next, semistocks making a big comeback we hear from star chip analyst ahead with the names he is betting most on. not just nvidia. back on the bell after this. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪
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we're at the beginning of a new industrial revolution and this industry is going to be producing intelligence it takes energy and of course a lot of great computer science and large computing systems that are being made so we've got to make sure that everybody understands the need's coming, the opportunities of it, the challenges of it and doing the most efficient and scaleable way we can >> that was nvidia's ceo speaking to cnbc outside the
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white house today. he was there for a meeting about the outlook for ai and how to meet the energy demand needed to power that industry. nvidia shares making a huge comeback this week and stacy rasgon said it remains one of the best industries. we heard a lot from him this week whether it was in the leather jacket or business suit. what was your biggest takeaway from where we were in san francisco or from he said outside the white house today? >> i think he's right. you're right the stock has been through the ringer up and down and sideways over the last few weeks there have been concerns about blackwell, their next generation delays and sustainability to demand and everything else at this point, from everything we can see, demand remains off the charts seems like their customers still cannot get enough of what it is they're delivering and i think he's right i think as we go forward, like
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you can never have too much compete and they're the ones that are supplying the most of it at this point i think the concerns around blackwell delays from a few weeks ago, those have sort of proven to be mostly nothing burger they've got billions of dollars of revenue ramping in q4 i still think this one has legs. i think it has room to run >> he described the demand they're seeing when he was on stage yesterday with david solomon as still being great he also talked about something i think more powerful. that's the idea this installed base that they have. whether it's through gaming or super computing. the likes of which we always talk about relative to apple, but not so much as it relates to nvidia the implication being that it doesn't even matter really about some of the competitors who are out there because the customers of nvidia are just going to keep
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coming back only for updated chips that they produced throughout the years >> yeah. so this gets into the concept of what's known as the ecosystem. it's an issue like a lot of their competitors like the pitches, you know, we have a chip that's better than nvidia it's always open for debate, but even if it were true, it's probably not enough. it's not just about the chip it's the chip and it's the software and the hardware and systems engineering and everything that goes around it that makes it very, very easy to buy their stock and adopt it and install it you can be up and running in days without having to monkey around with anything else. many of their stuff, you can buy it and it may be months before you're up and running with it. we've even seen evidence of this amd, they just bought mazeki systems. the systems expertise that nvidia has sort of the built up organically. they bought other acquisitions and other things they're trying
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to assemble some of those capabilities on the software side and everywhere else they've been less successful but it is clearly about the silicon, but it's much more than the silicon. it is everything that goes around it that makes it easy to adopt. once you're adopted and established, then you have that installed base a tailwind once your customers are using your parts, it makes it easier to keep doing that >> the super bullish investors would suggest then the implication is that they actually have a mode that this is not simply a, you've said that for sure. but more broadly, this is not just a first mover advantage it's actually something more powerful and durable >> always starts with that take a look at the software. it's called couda. it's a variety of different things they started building it over 15
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years ago. that's a massive first mover advantage, right you've got lots of other players now that are just getting started now. and even if you have been trying to build out your software and ecosystem from a competing standpoint for two, three, four years, nvidia, they have a decade head start on you in that case again, once ecosystem's get establish, they're really difficult to crack one of the other well-known ones, the wind tunnel ecosystem, x76 and windows npcs it's sort of barely starting to crack now, but it's been around for decades. >> what's the takeaway as well from a broadcom, for example why is it up 20% this week you've detailed it here as the number two play. right after nvidia that's the one to keep your eye on most. >> i'll be honest with you it got hammered a little bit after their print a week or two
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ago. i thought that was overdone. i was on here when the results broke. i didn't think it was that bad of a print i thought the ai trajectory was fine aind i think there's a lot of room for that to run. their core business is weak. many of the folks that play in the markets, it's cyclical it looks like it's bottomed, the orders are picking up. and they just, they've been buying software companies. they bought vmware it's looking like a home run they were already delivering on that so i think you got that sort of like play as it goes forward on top of that, just to get to the back ai side, broadcom's been out there talking as well it's becoming increasingly clear i think that it's not just nvidia that could be the winner here if you're looking for what is the reasonable second source, i've been coming more and more around to the idea that it probably is broadcom who does
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the kcustom chip design sfor th hyper scalers. i think we're still very early on that path people are realizing it could be bigger so you put all that together, i'm not surprised. i was disappointed that it got hit as much it did >> pretty bullish. we'll catch up with you soon thanks so much up next, tracking the biggest movers into the close. steve is standing by with that >> sit down and buckle up because i'm going to tell you what's going on with some airline stocks coming up after this
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zbl shares of alaska air, they're headed higher after the carrier lifted its third quarter outlook on the heels of strong summer demand. and delta hedged ahead after the airline says it expects fiscal '24 earnings to be in line above estimates, but, big but, delta is warning it expects an earn igs hit of 45 cents a share due to the outage in july. also roku added more than 5% after wolf upgraded it to
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outperform the companies says they think their growth is poised to accelerate scott? >> all right steve, thanks. still ahead, adobe reporting top of the hour. we hear from an analyst with whate' hs expecting from those numbers. coming up. the bell is coming right back. (vo) a law partner rediscovers her grandmother's artistry and establishes a charitable trust to keep the craft alive for generations to come. from preserving a cultural tradition to leaving a legacy, a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you enrich your community. that's life well planned. it's time. yes, the time has come for a fresh approach to dog food. everyday, more dog people are deciding it's time to quit the kibble and feed their dogs
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dude, you gotta work on your trash talk. i'd rather work on saving for retirement. or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. plus, craig with what he is expecting from adobe when it reports in overtime. rh also out in overtime. julia is going to tell us what to watch for there mike, some calling what happened yesterday an inflection point in this market. >> it's at least a good chance of it. the history of those big upside rever reversals is a little ambiguous
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but there were some signs. the s&p 500 is up .7% from yesterday morning till now it retested 5400 last week's low. the level we were at before the disappointing july jobs report then treasury yield stock going down you stopped having people have a sense that the bond market was really handicapping a hard landing. decent weekly jobless claims of course, semiconductors really ripped higher and they had been very oversold. today by the way, you got some further upside around midday after the wall "wall street jou rep reports hinting at a oo 50 basis point cut. it got people thinking that might be the case. flipped his call from a hard to a soft landing this morning. so all that stuff together i think has been enough to stabilize the tape >> it's been a really powerful
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reemergence of tech, hasn't it >> it has. a lot of people, for good reason, saying that tech leadership, the outperformance trend that had been so persistent looks like it was broken at least until further notice. this is now testing that idea to some degree. it's not all tech. it's obviously still concentrated among the favored semiconductors in a few other names but there's no doubt that those stocks take the four volatility comes down. you don't have to rely on four other things going wrong it creates a firmer tone in equities >> thank you to greg now for adobe. what should we expect? >> yeah. thank you for having me. so, i think a couple of things that are very important to look for here the most important metric would be net new digital media arr they've got 460 million. they need to beat that number
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fairly solidly not as dramatically as last quarter where they had a $50 million beat and the stock was remarkably strong. they've said within digital media, if you look at creative cloud, their creative suite is adobe's flagship product, essentially. their net new collaborative metric, the second most important thing to look for, adobe has guided to year-over-year growth. a return to year-over-year growth in this quarter there are many investors still skeptical on that point. so if that does turn from a negative into a positive, you will see more confidence on the street as a result >> why has the stock underperformed so dramatically this year to remind people, it's down 2% year-to-date >> sure. so i think it comes back to expectations i think after ai and specifically adobe's you know, product name board is fire fly
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and it is throughout their product port yfolio. there was a lot of euphoria and people expected this was going to start to materialize in the numbers in the business model and things got off to a slower start than people expected and so i think that's the biggest reason for the underperformance again, relative to expectations. however, our call has been that as we get into the back half of this year and starts with this q3 and especially in the q4 period, you will see tangible evidence of these levers associated with fire fly start to show up in the model and start to help drive additional growth for adobe and that obviously would go a long way we think in terms of changing that investor sentiment and to have it become more positive >> great, appreciate it. we'll see what happens rh also out, julia speaking of underperformers this year we expect the always colorful
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commentary from the company. >> always eyes on guidance with shares down 10% since it reported earnings in june, the stock is down 17% in the past year the 43% of analysts with a buy or overweight rating on the stock are hoping for a turnaround 50% have a hold rating on the stock. they're expecting to grow to $825 million and to guide to accelerating growth of 11% in the third quarter. now, earnings per share are projected to decline to $1.56. wed bush which has a neutral rating on the stock says they believe rh gained share in the second quarter with new products while steeple says they believe trends through the quarter have been mixed but generally supportive of an inflection point for premium furnishing back to you, scott >> thank you that's julia boorstin. we will see what happens in just a little bit michael, back to you got less than 90 seconds
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nice, broad day, too every sector as we smpeak is in the green. >> yes that is a bit of a switch from yesterday when it was pretty narrow i think breadth is one of the things that probably still lines up as a net asset because it was so strong coming off the early august low we mentioned coming into the week that some folks were going to try to map the august experience on to september in terms of a lot of weakness packed into the first several trading days of the month. everyone geared up for more seasonal declines and maybe the market can pull a rabbit out of the hat. here we are. we have most of the information we're going to have going into next week's fed meeting. we know that real gdp and annualized inflation are both running in this comfortable 2 to 3% zone. the entire debate is about whether that's a stable or fragile equilibrium for now and whether the fed is willing to go a little bit farther as a gesture to make sure people realize they're not behind the
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curve and all the rest that's why that journal story today i think got some traction. this idea there could be a pretty healthy case for 50 basis points in the room next week >> good stuff. mike, as always. four up days in a row. that does it for us on "closing bell." over to overtime that's the end of regulation doing the honors for the nasdaq. stocks adding to wednesday's gains and on the week with tech having another strong session. small caps seeing big gains today. that's the scorecard on wall street but the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell" overtime >> with $260 billion software firm adobe reports in moments, we have access you'll only get on overtime. an exclusive interview with
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