tv Fast Money CNBC September 12, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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terrestrial network. this was a $2 stock as recently as mid may check out my podcast, manifest space, for the entire conversation >> yeah. be sure to do that also got my eye on adobe now we'll see, it's had some interesting levels, if you look at a five-year chart >> yeah. strong day for the markets in general, though. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight jensen huang on the record all the headlines from the exclusive cnbc interview with the nvidia ceo straight from his meeting at the white house what he had to say about the rollout of their highly anticipated blackwell chip. plus, happier meals? mcdonald's extending its $5 value menu until at least the end of the year. what it will mean for the company. plus, moderna meltdown the guidance that sent shares to ten-month lows and is it too early to start the
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countdown to christmas >> sure. why not? >> never never. guy. >> mel >> the latest read on how holiday sales could pan out this year i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, guy adami, dan nathan, and steve grasso. we start with mcdonald's, extending their value meal at most of its locations. the chain looking to win back customers with discounts as diners grapple with persistently high prices. but we start off with jensen huang and other top tech execs meeting with white house officials to discuss a.i.'s energy use we spoke with jensen huang right after that meeting megan? >> hey, melissa. he and other a.i. executives from google, microsoft, openai, they were all at the white house today to talk energy needs for a.i. the goal was boosting public/private cooperation to make sure that energy and some technical issues like work force and permitting, that they haven't blocking the buildout of a.i..en fra structure in the
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u.s. when we caught up with jensen huang after the meeting, he talked about the industrial rev lose we're in. he said while a.i. models take a lot of time to train, they can save a lot of energy once they are in use we spoke about the company's blackwell chips, as you mentioned. listen to this >> so, each generation reduces energy consumption, increases performance, reduces cost, and so, we're in a hurry to get to blackwell. we're at full volume production of blackwell and every company in the world is champing at the bit, you know, for us to ship it >> melissa, i asked if there was enough money behind a.i. in infrastructure at this point, and he sort of said, well, if the u.s. doesn't have the money, then he doesn't see any other nation that could take better advantage of this technology melissa? >> megan, thank you. and nvidia's had a nice couple of days here, guy, and resumed its upward move. >> yeah, yesterday we talked about the powerful reversal in the s&p 500. we said, if you see it to the
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downside, we're going to talk about it, well, we saw it to the upside yesterday steve's been talking about if it got back through $110.50, that's the 100-day moving average, i might be off, but it would be a place to get back in on the long side probably wound up being spot on. jensen's telling a great story people are excited again the fact that it held those lows like a champ is encouraging, and it sets it up well with that said, you know i'm still a bit of a skeptic in terms of a number of things, not least of which, valuation. and i think that smci story is still out there in the ether but right now, technically, it looks good >> it's been almost an 11% move in the semiconductors index, the stocks, smh in four days so, that's the part of the market that, if you are looking for the market itself to pick up and go again, you need to have, you need to have that, and i would argue that the cpi number this week and some of the other supporting inflation data is very megatech friendly if it's a little bit hotde hott
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that's actually very good for tech and i would go back again i do this a lot lately, because that july cpi number, if you look at the underperformance of semis and megacap tech, a lot of it happened that day, a day when you thought, boy, this gets the fed out of the way, because it was a great inflation number, meaning there was no inflation, or there was less. so, it's fascinating the intraday move from yesterday, guy's talking about it, this is a powerful move. 190 s &p points. and it's largely been tech-led, i know today you had that breadth. >> so, dan nathan, you're in san francisco, is that enough to offset sort of the waning enthusiasm, it seems, for a.i. in general, nvidia specifically? an article cited how many shares institutions are selling fidelity reduced by 19%, citadel reduced by 93%
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>> yeah, it's interesting. the most controversial thing this week is that jensen huang at the white house today not wearing the black leather jacket, and what is that saying about the future of this stock no, i'm just kidding there it is interesting, though, and i'll just say this think about, like, some of the commentary in and around the conference yesterday, and the conversation that he had with david solomon. didn't think that was that much new there. if fanything, when you're talkin about the customer demand and the tension he spoke to about customers looking to get this blackwell. so, from here on out, the story is, he just said they're in full production it's just how much supply they're going to have for how much demand. i think the real story yesterday was the news from the information that meta, one of their biggest customers, of nvidia, is working on that 100,000 gpu cluster, and it just speaks to, and using the h-100 so, the existing iteration of this gpu that really got nvidia going
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yesterday. just quickly on some of the commentary, probably talked to 15 investors, and those are large mutual fund complexes that are selling. but the hedge fund people are also kind of skeptical here, from what i could take, that was almost nearly universal. that's in the near term. until you hear more about use cases and r.o.i., and so, when i look at the chart, and i look at the price action, i see a series of lower highs this might be kind of tapped out in the near term, in my opinion, and so, from a technical basis, and you take the selling by institutions, and then you take the selling by jensen huang, and you say to yourself, i don't think this is going to make a new high any time soon >> grasso, how have you been trading nvidia lately? >> so, it was back, basically, guy talked about that 100-day moving average where i said i would rather not get back in until it was above that average. and for me, it was a buy above $110, but now that 100-day
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moving average is now $112 when you trade this much higher, this quick, you have to look at the other moving averages now. so, you have the 50-day is $117.75. if you are in it now, you're going to use that as your out, that should be your stop loss. because you've made money from $110 all the way back up to $120, now you want to guard those gains. the macro is exceptional right now. the market is doing well it feels like there's never going to be another down day, but we all know that down day is coming >> all right >> september, worst day for semiconductors, and worst day for the indices, so, let's just see how we ride out these last two weeks, but i would keep a short leash on nvidia if you're long right now >> how are you feeling about it, tim? does macro trump waning a.i. enthusiasm >> i think it dud here i think the fed's always the most important i think on a day when you're using the metaphor of the next
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industrial revolution outside of washington, that's a metaphor that's for washington, it's not for wall street. we kind of know what's going on, and i don't think there's anything different that the street hasn't frankly priced in here i think, though, nvidia is still so far ahead, i think the price action here has been such that clearly there are buyers of dips, but the question about growth, i would bring it back to today, and i realize jobless claims and continuing claims are, like, microscopic points that are very noisy on the judging of the labor market, but they don't align a job market that's printed the last couple payroll numbers on the first friday of the month. and i think that's part of where, again, it's the environment that the macro for the market and for the fed and for, sorry, guy, soft landing, you know, no landing >> goldilocks. >> goldilocks t this is the part of the story that's allowed passive investors to pile in >> eight minutes into the show -- >> yeah. >> holiday shopping. >> countdown to christmas, which you love
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>> we can get hump day in there. >> no you can't, tim no, you can't. i've already exorcised enough from yesterday's mets victory. he's telling a great storstory, being jensen huang he mentioned $5 you're going to get back for every dollar you spend. right now, the best case scenario that i've seen has come from walmart and facebook in terms of their ability to monetize nobody else has really proven anything yet, so, there's still a lot of hope in this trade, and i think steve numbers continue to be spot on. >> and is anyone going to give us that number >> no. >> and there are other places that, again, we have tried to play a.i. in the utilities sector i think this is a place where it's alive and well. if it's southern co, nexterra. the utilities in terms of those that actually have a role in data center demand, that's been a great trade. meantime, mcdonald's loving it the fast food chain extending its value menu for the second time the deal was slated to expire in august, but now will go until the end of the year.
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for $5, customers can get a mcchicken or mcdouble, four-piece chicken nuggets, fries, and a drink >> yuck. >> that's a lot of -- >> why yuck? >> don't be a hater. america loves mcdonald's cnbc's kate rogers has more. >> hey, melissa. as you said, mcdonald's will be extending that value meal through december in most local markets. the company said roughly 80% of local markets are extending the meal deal, which, as you said, including that mcdouble or mcchicken, four-piece nuggets, fries, and a drink there's the potential to see additional participation from franchisees confirmed in the coming weeks the president of mcdonald's usa said in a statement, quote, we're committed to keeping our prices as affordable as possible, which is why we're doubling down with even more ways to save value as we all know has been a key focus and theme across the restaurant sector this summer, with companies from burger king to mcdonald's, even starbucks getting in on the $5 bundles to capture the attention of
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consumers. starbucks had that pairings offer, that was for a limited time burger king's runs through october. taco bell has a $7 meal box that's available after a challenging second quarter in july, mcdonald's executives told restaurant operators and analysts postearnings it would be refocusing on how to recapture consumers with deals as they push for an extension of the $5 meal platform. now this is the second time they've done that through the end of the year. back over to you >> kate, in general, once a player like mcdonald's extends to december, is the pressure on the rest to keep value in place? >> certainly and i think in just about a month, when earnings season kicks off, we're going to find out, you know, who has really nailed it here, and who is working in terms of the $5 platform really resonating mcdonald's did say earlier in the summer that this was testing well with the low income consumer, and that's who thaey really needed to get back. >> kate rogers, thank you. let's bring in now web bush securities nick -- actually, we don't have nick quite yet.
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we will -- >> oh. >> i like nick >> disappointed. >> i am disappointed >> we can do that here we're fine >> it's been quite a bounce in shares >> it's been an 18% bounce, i think, in 35 some odd sessions and anyone who is surprised they extended this $5 meal is crazy this is what they do this is the program. and the senses i'm getting from the analyst community, we'll hear this from nick soon enough is what extent july and august same-store sales comps out there too conservative and guy, you are a big crocs wearer, starting in two weeks, there's going to be a crocs key chain promotion in your happy meal, which many people believe is going to drive traffic. >> that's projection that's the highest level of projection, number one >> nothing wrong with a happy meal who doesn't like that or a key chain? >> you know my order at mcdonald's >> what is it? a cheeseburger -- >> five cheeseburgers, large fry, medium coke >> five cheeseburgers, come on >> what are you, 20? come on. >> no.
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if you go back and -- >> clearly not >> this is one we did a good job. in january, it topped out. as it started to decline, we said, okay, you know what's in line, that october low put up a chart from last october. you see 245. look at where we traded down to on july 1st. look at where we held. the problem, of course, now is, we're right back to those prior all-time highs so, now the stock needs to prove itself, which i think it will do into earnings. i think they release third week of october, something like that. week before halloween. so, i think you ride the momentum here in cd. all right, now, let's bring in nick setiyan for more great to see you >> thank you for having me >> when you heard they were extending, did you get more optimistic about earnings and revenues for the year, or, what was your initial reaction? because there's sort of a give and a take, obviously, i mean, i would imagine that the margins would be thinner, but they would increase traffic >> you know, i was kind of surprised. it's not the perfect solution.
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they are working on a better solution that will probably come out in early 2025, so, this is a stop gap measure until then, but you know, certainly the context is that there's just been too much inflation in qsr. mcdonald's, 40% versus 2019, grocery much less. so, they're the customers that are direct meal replacement, they don't care what brand they're buying from, they just want the cheapest price, they've moved to grocery and convenience, and mcdonald's has to regain some of that share this is their answer, it's not a perfect answer, but it is a stop-gap until they figure out a better answer, probably in, you know, '25. >> has it always been the case that mcdonald's customers aren't necessarily brand loyal, they just wanted the value for their money? because that seems like a bigger problem, if there's not actual inherent loyalty to this brand or these particular meals, it's just how cheap can you get it? that's a difficult field to compete in
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>> i'd say about a third of the customer, if you think about that lower, the very low income, you know, customer, the value menu customer, has always historically used, you know, mcdonald's and other qsr peers as direct meal replacement and that's always been the case. mcdonald's has always been a value beater because of that, and they've always garnered success because of that. >> but nick, hey, it's tim, sounds to me, when i hear $5 meal and extension, the drivers that you just talked about, i hear margin pressure and i wonder what multiple you think about mcdonald's in context, and maybe, if you can compare that to how you were thinking about that multiple two years ago, or four years ago, or, you know, even pre-covid, because we know the world has changed in terms of those cost inputs, the labor cost inputs. that, to me, is where you get to with mcdonald's, because i think the brand's there, crocs key chains or not. >> you know, remember, mcdonald's is a primary franchise concept. so, at the end of the day, what you care about a lot more is the top line than the bottom line.
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and the franchisees are dealing with the margin pressures at the end of the day investors really -- all we care about is the royalties and they do have a company-owned, you know, portfolio, but it's a very small percentage of the overall system >> nick, i'm wondering, you know, from your standpoint, when you look at sort of the macro backdrop, do you agree that the consumer will continue to face challenges, the same they're facing right now or increased challenges going into the end of the year because what this is implying in extending the value meal, that that is the case, that is the macro dakbackdrop, that things won't improve. >> i'm pretty opt mimistic. if you remember, we had a price war back in 2016 and 2018, you know, we were in a recession back then, right, it's just that we had another extended period of restaurant inflation led by labor inflation at the time. that was, you know, over and
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above grocery inflation. so, you see these cycles from time to time, so, to me, it's not necessarily that it's consumer slowdown issue, it literally is just that, you know, in the near-term, we've had some share shift away from qsr at mcdonald's, towards the grocery, particularly value grocery and convenience stores and so, mcdonald's, to me, in my opinion, is doing the right thing, by making sure that gap versus grocery is going back in line with what it has been historically >> all right, nick, great to see you, thank you so, it's right-sizing the pricing. they took a lot of price at the beginning of inflation they have to give it back. >> they did, and they got -- they got penalized for it. remember the commentary a couple quarters ago you look at the second quarter they reported, i think july 29th or so, it seems to be the turn, because it wasn't as bad as the street was looking for remember where the stock was at the time now i think the turn's in place.
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now the momentum they had seems to be back in mcdonald's you could say stretched on valuation, but they always seem to figure it out and that hiccup not withstanding, they're in firm footing right now. >> steve >> yeah, to tim's point, you know, i'd be first worried about the margins on this. but when you look at the chart, the 50 moved up through the 100-day. it's not the golden cross, but it's positive. i think they can manage to hold onto share, but when -- when i look at other names in the space, brinker international blows away the entire quick serve space. if i wanted to buy something and say, okay, can mcdonald's go back to the old stand-by, the old guard? i think you're okay. if i want to make more money, i think i stay in eat. all right, coming up, adobe on the move after its latest earnings report. the numbers are next. plus, investors sprinting out of moderna shares after its
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latest guidance raised concerns. the headlines hammering the stock, right after this. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc. , those breakthroughs are often paused. citi's seamlessly connected banking, markets and services businesses, deliver global financial solutions. so our client can keep investing in innovations for patients around the world. without pause. for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress.
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on adobe. disappointing q-4 guidance the ceo just spoke exclusively to cnbc in the last hour julia boorstin has a recap of the interview and a breakdown of the results. julia? >> that's right. shares are down 10% in afterhours, after adobe's fourth quarter revenue guidance missed estimates. forecasting $5 billion to $5.5 billion, slightly lower than the street expected. despite that disappointing outlook, when the ceo joined us in the last hour, he said he feels good about adobe's future. >> most people would characterize the economy as either, you know, a little bit slow, or stable. we have seen stability in our business i think we're all probably looking forward to seeing what both the fed says, as well as what happens in the elections.
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but if you look at our fundamental long-term trends and the ability for technology to continue to drive even more value, we're bullish >> he also says he's bullish on the company's a.i. initiatives, saying he does not think there's another company that's demonstrated the amount of innovation that adobe's a.i. assistant has. melissa, you see shares now down 10%, and the ceo did that interview with your colleague jon fortt. >> julia, thank you. dan nathan, i go to you on this, 10% decline, what do you make of that >> well, really interesting. and i also think it's fascinating that in that interview, he speaks of the macro, and, you know, that's something that you wouldn't expect for, like, a creative suite of products right now that it would probably weigh too much on that. last summer, we were spending a lot of summer. this is a summer of '23, kind of figuring out who is going to be the early beneficiaries of generative a.i you would have thought companies like this would have done that they announced the firefly
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product, generative a.i. across their creative suites, and the market has just not appreciated whatsoever so, when you have a miss like they've just guided to on net new digital media, this is arr, you know, that's the sort of thing that investors are just not going to wbe that patient about. is it deservedly down 10%, i'm not sure but if you think of 2025 and you think of earnings estimates expected to be up 13%, sales estimates to be up about 11%, this is an 89% gross margin company, which is fabulous, right? but they're not demonstrating the sort of growth that justifies nearly a 29 multiple on 2025 numbers. so, again, down 10%, seems a little curious the stock was down 2% on the year really underperforming many other names that have been talking a big gen a.i. story for the last year or so. >> i feel like often in the afterhours session on the back of adobe's results, there's a sharp decline in the shares. >> what they do. >> and -- i'm in your brain
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tonight. >> channeling me >> it's crazy. we've seen it quarter after quarter. >> three out of the last four, they dropped a doughnut. >> what? that sounds disgusting, tim seymour. >> it's fine >> i don't know about dropping doughnuts. >> this time, is it warranted? >> to the extend that it sold off, no, i don't think it is, but i'll tell you now, when you guide lower in this environment, with that valuation, that's what's going to happen with that said, take a look at where it traded down to on august 5th i think you get down to about $509 or so that's where you get back in the stock, because yes, it's expensive, a stock that made it all-time high in 2021. this is a fabulous company, which, as dan mentioned, incredible margins if you're trying to find a place to buy this stock, i think it comes in the form of $510. >> i would lean towards the buy. because that guide -- those numbers are fine it was the guide, i think, about 15 million light on $550, so, what's that, 3.5%? i guess depends on how you
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believe any relative miss, how important it is. i don't think that's a game-changer for a company that i think was starting to put it back together. so, i think this isbuying. >>. here's what's coming up next >> a pair of bio techs moving in very different directions today. one hitting a new record high -- the other seeing an r&d ruoute the headlines driving summit therapeutics and moderna, and how to trade the stocks, next. plus, the countdown is on. but will retailers just get hunks of coal in their stockings this holiday season? the inside scoop on why this could be the worst year since 2018 you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. they are playing great. meanwhile, i'm on the green and all i can think about is all the green i'm spending on 3 kids in college. not to mention the kitchen remodel, and we'd just remodel the bathrooms last month.
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got a buzz kill on moderna. shares plunging after the company gave disappointing guidance at its latest r&d day it plans to cut $1.1 billion in expenses in 2027 and get ten products approved in that time frame. it slashed its r&d product, saying it will pause or scrap some research.
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they lowered revenue outlook for next year and said it should break even in 2028 steve grasso >> ouch. >> it's really hard to trim your r&d and then launch ten new products that's why the market's probably not treating it favorably. i don't see how it could be. people are not lining up to take -- to take the shots anymore. you have a stock that's trading back to the october 2020 level but it just had a death cross. i'm a firm believer, when you see a death cross, the -- the downside is nearly played out. so, if you're looking for a little bit of a bounce here, maybe you want to roll the dice on it and just keep it close to the vest >> all right meantime, take a look at shares of summit therapeutics. that company topping the tape, up another 20% >> goodness. >> this after the company said it sold more than 10 million shares of stock, raising $235 million from insiders and institutional investors. the announcement coming after our interview with the co-ceos
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last night shares are up 120% just this week, on positive trial results for its lung cancer drug, that would compete with keytruda. they said the profile should be similar to keytruda in terms of the applications for the drug, the uses of, and right now, k keytruda treats at least 18 different kinds of cancer. >> and more indications probably coming comes off patent in 2028 if this is going to compete at that level, i mean, a $27.40 stock, you might be able to move the decimal place at some point, because that's what we're looking at in terms of total adjustable market. if they get it right you want to play bith binary outcomes, this is it that is a huge tell. >> and we've had this conversation when other people have had these kind of moves or we suggested maybe it's a great time to do a secondary the sense is, can they do it alone, or are they someone that's ripe for a takeout? i won't get into that. they're obviously going to say, we can do it alone --
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>> and -- yeah, exactly. >> and i think it's still a case where this is a company where intrinsically people see value that moderna output, by the way, the profitability pushed out two years, very disappointing, for a company that had a lot of cash on their balance sheet and people did the valuation in terms of the total percentage of cash on the balance sheet. >> so, how about merck, guy? >> $114 it closed today. obviously there are concerns about cue tkeytruda if you think about what just happened with summit specifically, but then think about the glp-1 and the head start that lilly has and novo has. it's going to force mefrck's hand i think at $114, it's cheap, with all the headwinds, this is a stock that i think you buy here, not sell. all right, coming up, roche shares slimming down after disappointing obesity drug data. the struggles, the side effects, and the next steps for the pharma giant that's next. plus, the holiday shopping season is nearly upon us seriously. but analysts are expecting
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks rallying for the second day running. the dow jumping 219 points the s&p gaining 0.75%. and the nasdaq surging 1% as tech continues to rebound. kroger shares ripping higher after the grocery chain beat expectations before the bell but company said customer visits were up, and that delivery sales were 17% higher than last year and rh shares surging afterhours on a big earnings beat the high end home retailer issuing upbeat guidance into 2024 tim, i know you're familiar with their offerings. >> yeah, i am, and i'm familiar with the stock i own the stock. and i think the idea here is, we know that there's very mixed trends in terms of home furnishings. we know they are certainly at the premium end. we also know that this was about essentially resetting, right sizing expectations. i think they cleared the deck. i think this was really about where people understand to be that inflection on where they're
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going to start to build again. they've done a decent job of not having to be overly promotional, because that's not what they do. i think the stock is going to continue to be extremely volatile i think this space, and i've been somewhat critical of the wsm play, despite some of the products that they have that seem to be selling off the shelf. i think you have to be cautious in this space, but rh, i think, on valuation, nine times ebitda, you're paid to stay. >> i think i misspoke. they increased guidance into 2025, not just the end of the year >> right >> which is even more bullish, i mean, to be able to forecast into next year is pretty -- >> and let's go to kroger real quick, a company with probably a bulls eye on their back in terms of price gouging and all the things we've heard from both sides of the aisle, i'll say this that was a pretty good quarter and valuation is still compelling and within a whisper of a prior all-time high that we made a couple years ago margins improving, seemingly their business is being run better i think you can own -- you still own kroger here.
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well, christmas -- >> yeah. >> three months away >> no, no. >> it's never too early to break out the countdown clock for the holidays >> can't believe it. >> look at that. 1034 103 days we might be already getting signs, though, that the grinch is going to steal christmas though a report out today predicts the weakest gain in holiday sales since 2018 spending expected to rise between 2 p.3% and 3.3% 4.3% last year dan, are you worried about retailers and christmas? you are worried about retailers, even without a bad christmas >> well, let's think about it this way guy's been saying this on "fast money" for nearly 17 years, that consumer confidence is really just an overlay of the s&p 500 well, last i checked, the s&p 500 is within a couple percent of all-time highs, it's up 17%
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on the year. if we get rate cuts this year, where it looks like it's going to do, fed watch tool is pricing in maybe 100 basis points of cuts in the next few months or so, you think about the wealth effect from the stock market and possibly from housing, look at where the xhb is, and you say to yourself, maybe 4% is very achievable, or maybe higher, you know so, i just don't know, you know? i think it probably makes sense to not be too cautious on that, because if things can hang in there, then consumers are going to feel pretty decent about spending around christmas. >> the other thing that guy has been saying for 17 years, among the myriad things -- >> a lot of things >> but specifically pertaining to retail and spending is that you never underestimate the american consumer, steve. so, in the end, you think we spend, spend, spend for our loved ones >> well, if you think about it, to dan's point, if rates start coming down, then you're going to -- in effect, you'll probably have more home equity lines of
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credit coming out, and the consumer probably gets another lifeline, even though it feels as though they've already ran through enough of these lifelines. but when i think of what the consumer is going through right now, i think of walmart, and walmart, you could buy your groceries, you could buy clothes, tim, no laughing, and you could buy your -- your christmas gifts. it's the everything for everyone, their digital play is like no other at this point. guy talked about it at the top of the show, saying they've been able to really leverage a.i. so, i think this will benefit them, but i think the consumer will be just fine if rates come down >> yeah, there's no question i'm going to walmart for that. and i think you have a case here where -- look. i think discretionary is under pressure everything we've been saying about the consumer and consumer credit and where we might be going -- i recognize that the market -- look, the adamiisms, we've quoted two tonight --
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>> long time he's been around. >> long time establishing that lane there, but i think we have a dynamic here where i think discretionary is going to be under pressure isn't that the narrative we're having with consumer credit and where people one day were worried about a hard landing the point is, i don't think a lot of these retailers are priced for that, and i think, if anything, that trend gets worse. >> before we -- mel, i have to -- can i say something? we have time >> not really, but -- you've already started, so -- >> these friday shows, we have a lot of time. like the wicked witch of the west, the grinch is one of the most misunderstood characters, maybe in cinema history. >> because -- >> no, no. this was a misunderstood person, was ostracized by society, that had a big heart, that needed to see what happened there at the end for him to fully embrace it. so, let's not start saying grinch, because we're doing him a disservice >> yeah. >> and all the -- >> it's only halfstory, right? >> kind of like the abominable snowman. he was putting stars -- >> warlock
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>> we've really turned a corner here. coming up, dan nathan's been living it up out west, from driverless cars to nba stars, and the latest temperature check on the a.i. trade. we'll give us a full report next. plus, the skinny on susappointing obesity trial relts out of roche more when "fast money" returns this is our future, ma. godaddy airo. creates a logo, website, even social posts... in minutes! -how? -a.i. (impressed) ay i like it! who wants to come see the future?! get your business online in minutes
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welcome back to "fast money. switzerland traded shares of roche closing 2% lower the company disclosing that all 25 participanting in a phase 1 trial experienced mild to moderate side effects and that the mean weight loss of 6.1% at four weeks was actually contained to six patients in the best performing trial cohort roche's u.s. traded adr closing almost 4% higher for more, we are joined by roche's global head of cardiovascular, renal, and metabolism product development manu, great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me back again. good to be here. >> i wanted to first talk about your oral offerings, since that's the latest data, and we got the recent data from novo, as well. can you talk us through why -- why there was so much nausea
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that you saw in terms of the adverse events for -- for this group? and tell us exactly how you can sort of reduce that, because reducing it would mean probably slow er titration, or somewhere slowly increasing the dosage, which would mean stretching out the timeframe for the weight loss >> yeah, so, the way that this study was actually conducted, which is the whole point of doing a study like this, is to actually -- what we say, you know, fail fast. and so, you go a little bit quicker in the titration scheme that you normally do so, we want to go, actually, purposefully, quickly, because you have a short period of time, it's usually four weeks, that is a typical time that phase one studies are done so, you want to get as much information that you can, as quickly as possible. and so, it's sort of an artificial system, if you will, and the whole point of that is to see if you have any unexpected safety, or unexpected toxicity that you don't anticipate of the glass.
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so, since we knew a lot about the -- the mention nichl, which is an oral glp-1, we knew that we were going to see gi-related tolerability, but the key was to see if there was anything unexpected the nausea rate that we saw is very much in line with what you typically see with any other glp-1 agonist even in the glp-1 that you just mentioned from novo. they all pretty much, when you line it up, they're all in the same category, for this stage of development. the problem is people sort of conflate phase one studies with fade three results, which, of course, is going to make the phase one results look really bad. but if, again, you actually line up the early studies, they're all exactly the same so, nothing unexpected that we saw in the safety, which actually gives us a lot of confidence to move actually the program forward into phase two, which is what we exactly intend to do in 2025. >> how about the six patients
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part of this whole thing i mean, that's another part that investors are concerned about. when you think about the next trial, how are you thinking in terms of the size, how are you thinking in terms of timing and titration, as well, dosing >> so, that's -- thanks for the opportunity to clarify that. so, when we do this study, we actually sped up the group's into the cohort of six, which is a very typical type of, you know, sample size that you have. so, the data, you have to look at it from a totality. in each cohort, there were six patients, along with a placebo placebo response was 1.2%, which tells you exactly in line with what others have shown, so, the placebo effect is very much consistent with the class, if you whether, of the weight loss category and then, if you look at the cohorts two and three, the cohort two, which was 120 milligrams, titrated a little bit quickly, and then you have the same dose titrated a little bit slower, 7.3% so, when you look at the
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totality of the data, even if you don't believe the 7.3% with six people, you look at the totality, you're seeing the weight loss very much with a very positive signal relative to the placebo. so, that is, again, a very typical size of the study. again, if you look up the other studies, you know, the same stage of development, all six to nine people. so, in regarding to your question about the titration, in fact, in the same study, not only did we show the replication of weight loss between two different cohorts, which is really reassuring, but actually, when you look at the slower group, cohort three, that actually had more weight loss. so, this notion of slowing down titration is going to worsen efficacy -- i'm not sure that's really justified, because our data from 996, as well as from our injectable, the 388, both of them actually showed very similar trajectories, even when you slowed down the titration.
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we don't anticipate the efficacy to be impacted if anything, we would expect the tolerability to be even further improved >> i guess the bottom line question, manu, for people watching this space, and particularly interested in the oral offerings, is that, you know, you're saying if you line up all the studies well, if we line up your study phase one versus novo's oral offering phase one, know voep's offering looks superior, according to a lot of the analysts that i've spoken to some people are saying, you know, given that, given that lilly's already working on an oral that's more advanced in terms of the phase number it's in, given that there is also a viking therapeutics offering that looks promising, where does your offering fit in at this point? >> so, first and foremost, our molecule is a truly synthetic oral agonist it's not a peptide that's converted into an oral formulation, right so, it's truly oral in that sense. and, you know, just to take one step back, just to provide a little bit of context here of
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how hard it is to actually come up with a small molecule t, tru oral molecule, it's incredibly hard, and that's why the field is really taking a long time so, all the molecules that you just mentioned, generally, like the viking molecule, are peptides that are converted to oral 996 is one of the very few molecules, if at any any, that's passed through the gauntlet of how hard it is to get through. the first one is liver tox many compounds have failed because of liver tox we don't see liver injury signal preclinical studies clearly show that any of the reactive species that's there is not present in our studies. high tox margins we have that you have, of course, you know, the question of whether the molecule is truly once daily >> right >> so that's another very important distinction. we have a truly once daily molecule because of the properties so, not sure it's fair to compare all of these in the same bucket >> okay.
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manu, great to see you again thank you for your time. >> sure. thank you for having me. coming up, dan nathan's been very busy on the west coast this week his boots on the ground report on the a.i. trade and self-driving taxis, next f more "fast money" in two are of. citi's seamlessly connected banking, markets and services businesses, deliver global financial solutions. so our client can keep investing in innovations for patients around the world. without pause. for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean. not spreadsheets... you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our matching platform lets you spend less time searching and more time connecting with candidates. visit indeed.com/hire (grandpa vo) i'm the richest guy in the world.
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welcome back to "fast money. our dan nathan has been out in san francisco and los angeles this week getting a look at everything from self-driving cars to investor sentiment around the a.i. trade. on our early show call today, he talked about his experience riding around san francisco in a robo-taxi. so, dan, we wanted you to do a little show and tell, please >> yeah, i mean, listen, it's a fascinating experience the future is here we know that elon musk is going to roll out a lot of news about the robotaxi event on october 10th, but look at what waymo is doing here these are really nice cars these are, you know, they're clean, they're fast, as far as the wait times relative to uber, and they're cheaper. this is really interesting the question is, does this scale, right all that technology, those very nice cars, who knows right now but it's a great experience. i really enjoyed it, and if it gets to new york city, i will be using this over uber every day of the week. >> well, part of the story,
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though, dan, which you mentioned on the call is the cars they are using are very, very, very high end luxury cars that you normally would not have in any form in new york city in terms of a ride hailing, right how much of it was that, that it was a jaguar >> no, i mean, listen, they're very clear it's not too different than the way that tesla rolled out their first evs. they went really high end. they wanted to get mass adoption, or, at least, you know, have this first mover advantage. and i think that's what they're doing. in a town like san francisco, where people understand this technology >> right all right. up next, final trades. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley
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>> steve >> walmart >> baba. ho ho ho >> they must have said one-word chances. >> now we have all this time >> do we >> thank you for watching "fast money. see youi mean they must have sa one-word answers >> quick now we have all of this time thanks for watching "fast money. see you back here tomorrow "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. my friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and sweet. call me at
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