morning. boeing workers are on strike more than 30,000 walk off the job rejecting the latest contract and boeing shares are going to be at a 52-week low i guess lower down in the 130s back in september of 2022. it's been a long grind down from well above 400 we are tracking nvidia's bounce back. shares of the a.i. chip maker up 15% just this week it's friday the 13th and september in the year of 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc

we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. the big inflation data points of the month are out of the way at this point we've gotten two of them over the last couple sessions now the markets are getting ready for the fed decision next wednesday afternoon. dow futures close to 80 points higher nasdaq up 16 the s&p futures up 12. this comes after the producer price index and the dow adding more than .50% after that data point. it was powered by gains in salesforce and microsoft the s&p 500 now on a four-day winning streak that index is now only down 1% for the month. if you are looking at one week, it's up 3.5% investors snapping up tech stocks nasdaq adding 1% that up by 5.25% for the week. treasury yields are interesting.

the u.s. ten-year at 3.64. the two-year at 3.58 a lot of other news happening this morning. we start with breaking news on boeing. more than 30,000 workers in washington and oregon officially going on strike. >> this is about respect, this is about addressing the past, and this is about fighting for our future we strike at midnight. [ cheers and applause >> strike, strike, strike, strike, strike, strike, strike, strike, strike, strike >> work stoppage is going to be halting production of most of the company's aircraft, including the best selling 737 max. boeing releasing a statement on the union vote saying in part, quote, we remain committed to resetting our relationship with our employees and the union and we are ready to get back to the table to reach a new agreement the strike delivers another

blow -- i mean, how many can you have against boeing as it works to increase the output and increase reputation. the last worker strike was in 2008 and it lasted 52 days it cost the company estimated $100 million per day we will have a live report from our own phil lebeau outside of the plant in washington. we will do that in a bit the dow component has moved lower close to 4% down right now. >> new low i was thinking earlier this week we heard how many planes they plan to make a month >> it's amazing. boggles the mind. >> i think it was 50 think of those planes. this is a major amount of people that aren't going to be doing that i can't imagine. the idea you make 50 a month that's a big work force and a lot of people working their ass off.

>> how out of step not only the company was with the union rank-a rank-and-file, but the i don't know union leadership that negotiated this. 96% voted against the contract you had the new ceo pleading with employees not to go on strike you realize you are in a weak position when you are pleading them to not go on strike. >> you look around >> 40% >> autos cost of living is up 20% and they get a 25% raise over four years. >> the thing that really kicked me, i didn't realize until digging into that. they get the 25% raise over the four years of the contract at the same time, they will no longer get annual bonuses they had been getting before. you are increasing pay 5 25%, b taking away the bonus structure. >> look at the rank-and-file and you are proud of where you work

and proud of boeing. who wouldn't be proud to work at boeing they totally screwed the pooch it is really not good for these guys and gals. >> we have to talk to phil about it and analysts. the increased pay and benefits was 90mi$900 million headwind a now you have to wonder how much they have to offer. >> how much will it cost them? >> on a daily basis. right. >> it is such a big part of the u.s. economy you wonder $100 million a day. you could probably find a gdp number and you don't have to go out that many de descmil points. >> and taylor swift. >> i think she owns a boeing jet. not really. turning to another sector.

oracle long term story for this stock almost $500 billion. all-time high today of 6%. solid week the database software company raising the 2026 guidance. oracle telling analysts it expects to see at least $66 billion in revenue in 2026 that's about $1.5 billion. that's an estimate for 2029, the long -- term contract, sees over $100 billion of revenue the stock up 55% the last year you know, we've got so many companies over $1 trillion now, we're not as impressed, i guess. oracle just has never really -- if you are longing at a longer-term chart, it is a steady rise. never really backed off. shares of adobe are sharply lower this morning they beat the third quarter profits and revenue, but the

stock is tripped up by the disappointing fourth quarter guidance despite the weak outlook, the company ceo told closing bell overtime that he feels good about raymond adobe's future. >> most people categorize as slow i think we are all probably looking forward to see what both the fed says as well as what happens in the elections, but if you look at our fundamental long-term trends and technology to continue to drive even more value, we're bullish >> he also said he's bullish on the company's a.i. initiatives and doesn't think there's another company that's demonstrated anything that adobe's a.i. assistant has so far. that stock down .75%. meantime, nvidia's jensen

huang and others at the white house to talk about energy and others like work force and permits are not blocking the latest on a.i. we have megan cassella who caught up with the ceo of nvidia after the meeting. he talked about the industrial revolution on a.i. he said specifically a.i. models wer need a lot of energy to train, but can save a lot of energy once in use. he spoke about the company's blackwell chips. >> every single generation, we try to increase the performance tremendously when we introduced new generations and performance is three or four times higher, we are essentially reducing the cost of computing and cost of artificial intelligence by the same factor. so, each generation reduces energy con sysumption and incres performance. we're in a hurry to get to

blackwell. we're in full production of bl blackwell. every company is chomping at the bit. >> shares are up 15% over of the last several days. you can take a look right now. $119.20. we will talk to a chip analyst at 6:50 a.m. eastern time this morning. >> i don't recall seeing jensen huang in a suit and tie before he is usually more casual. >> he is famous for the black leather motorcycle jackets yeah a sign of the times is who is going to the white house these days, right? that's -- go back over decades and see the kind of ceos who show up at the white house and demonstration of where we are in our economy. >> a.i. matters. when we come back, we're going to check out some of the retail investor trends after a very volatile first two weeks of september. "squawk box" will be right back.

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all right. shares of rh moving-er higher ts morning. reporting better than expected second quarter earnings. the company said it continues to see healthy demand for home

furnishing and enjoys positive margin despite operating in what it calls a challenging housing market indecdecades. the stock up 20% the latest sentiment survey of retail investors has shown bearish sentiment increasing from a week ago. for more on the markets, let's bring in jj kinahan. >> good morning, joe. >> s&p is kind of flat i think the nasdaq might be down a little in september. i think there were cross currents and maybe it was going to be a bad month leading to a low in october, but thens it's come back. what vis really happening beneat the surface? >> the u.s. stock market is

still the best game in town. when you look overall where people are going to put their money, i think the certainty around the fed right now has people looking for what to do because, you know, many retail investors are hesitant in the bond market as you imagine as we go into the september meeting and going forward. they are looking for quality stocks you know, becky got down talking about nvidia that's a stock that, to me, has become the new barometer, if you will, of retail investor confidence for so many years, it has been apple, but over the last six-to-nine months, it has been nvidia that is the stock we see people purchase the most, particularly over the last two weeks. that, to me, is a little bit amazing after it got slapped, let's face it. it continues to come back. again, their business model is selling things to everybody. the only thing that really in the future endangers that model

a bit is for the first time the companies buying the chips are being questioned as to the how or why of millions or billions spent on a.i. over the last couple years i don't think anybody has come out with anything so far with oh, my god, that's amazing. >> looking at that chart in the last two months, there's nothing to write home about. it obviously had an unbelievable run. that typifies what we're seeing in the overall market. i think it's odd that people are obviously a little tentative not knowing what the fed is going to do it's a choice of 25 basis points and 50 basis points. >> right. >> that is really good for the markets or even better for the markets. it has been the most long awaited move that i can recall we started talk -- when did we start talking about the pivot? the pivot away from the further hikes more than a year ago

once they did the pivot to neu neutral, we have been waiting for that and now we have been waiting for this for so long the market's not acting like we're entering this beautiful, wonderful easing cycle right now. it doesn't know which way to go. >> that's exactly it i think everyone is back and forth. to your point, it feels like this meeting has been on the docket and obviously, the market has already built in a rate cut. as you said, the probability of the 50-basis point cut on now up 45%. up this morning from where we've seen as we both know and seen so many times, the market is like a spoiled child. no matter what they get, they want way, way more with that, 50 seems to be in the bag, but will that be enough in the short-term for the market? they want so many people talking about more cuts, more cuts i think that would be unlike chairman powell. he's always been pretty

methodical in how he's done things since he's been there to do more than 25 basis points to me is out of the question the market is not in a race. we may be in a bit of a slowdown i think that is what people do miss a little bit. with the cpi numbers and ppi numbers that came out this week. it is funny with the rate of inflation which is slowing which is great, but we still have inflation. i think sometimes that's lost on people overall you are skewing in the fact that prices are going higher. the good news is prices are as high >> i looked it up this morning i don't think people real ease realize it gas is 50% more than three year ago. >> that's thefirst thing that hits most people's spending power. they go to the pump. the first thing. it is something you need weekly

or monthly depending on your driving needs. that's going to affect every household in america. >> is there anything you can see the fed doing igniting a market rally? 25 or 50 neither one. it is almost like a sell on the news type situation, i would think. i could be wrong >> i don't think you are necessarily wrong here, joe, because to the point you made to start the segment. how long has this been anticipated? it is not like oh, my god, they cut 50 i think it sends a bad signal that things are worse. >> 25 is going to be like kissing -- >> like kissing your sister? >> i don't know if you can say that. >> you saw him going there >> i don't know what you are allowed to say anymore i don't know if you are allowed to say that anymore. >> it is an old expression

>> believe me, we have other old expressions and nothing by it and they get upset in the ivory towers this is me trying not to say anything on a good side, costco, home depot and nvidia on the bad side, lulu, nike and uber financials are concerning >> financials are concerns the second largest sector. we keep looking. how long have we looked for the financials to really take up the mantle and technology to lead us higher it has not happened overall. jpmorgan has done okay, but with jpmorgan and goldman sachs this week, i was surprised how quickly they talked about the trading revenues and maybe not expect as great of things in earnings coming up jpmorgan is the one that kicks

us off overall we will see if that gets further reaction you have to figure the net interest income gets squeezed, too. that is part of the rate cut that people forget about >> it's all unsettling maybe it is the time >> it's friday the 13th. >> i got married on friday the 11 13th >> how lucky was that for you? >> i know. we had a major rally concentrated in -- we know it's a term the magnificent seven. nvidia >> one thing i'll add to that, joe, what is interesting to me, when stocks go down, we normally see people buying indices or etfs related to the indices like s spdr etf and people spread out what is interesting to your point right now is we're not seeing quite that spread out

that we would normally see as we continue higher and it still is mostly focused in, you know, ten names. we'll see what happens here as the rate cut comes >> all right if something else happens with the retail traders, let us know. >> always. >> you may not be on in time to save our viewers. >> have a great weekend, joe. coming up, could the election determine the future of ede c?ge giants fannie mae and frdima we have more news as it relates to it and president trump is teasing a crypto coin. more as "squawk box" rolls on after this

welcome back to "squawk box. the future of fannie mae and freddie mac could be influenced by who wins the white house in november some bankers have been discussing plans on trying to end u.s. government control of the finance giants should former president trump win the election they are calling people familiar with the matter. the talks have been under way since at least this past spring and reaching out to investment managers on advice on tohow to t the deal done. larry kudlow is behind this and some others in the presidential office among the others involved the trump campaign saying the former president has never said anything about this throughout the race bankers estimate the stakes in

fannie and freddie is hundreds of millions of dollars paulson and ackman have stakes in fannie and freddie and huge supporters and pushing for some of these things. i don't know what you guys think. i have very mixed views. part of me thinks it should be privatized if we can get money for it, great. part of me thinks we private s ties it, it goes bust, we start all over again fannie and freddie make an enormous amount of money for the government right now what you would be doing is pulling forward the gains. >> would you assume it is too big to fail? >> it is 40% of the mortgage market >> then that's the point it's never going to be able to be previvatized >> i don't know how that would work. >> is it a breakup like at&t

>> if it is well capitalized with crazy prequirements and the you can't lend as much >> you can't do the other part of the service >> you can't get the valuation for it >> it's not going to serve its purpose which people say it really important the purpose it serves the journal called it a gordian knot for the government. the bankers have to go back to 90-hour weeks. the one working on unraveling this relationship. >> they have been trying to do it for quite some time paulson and ackman others have been in this stock forever waiting for this moment. >> this would be the biggest in the history if it were to go public $100 billion minimum. >> easy. >> the guarantee from the government forever what's going to keep -- >> could they do something to

the companies so it doesn't have the guarantee. if it doesn't have the guarantee? >> if it is 40% of the market, it has it whether you guarantee it or not. >> i remember when it was a growth stock and it was 30 cents. i owned it it was $40 a growth stock back then >> by the way, there are other people who think it was a gross over extension of the government to take it and people think it's been stolen. some people think it was one of the great robberies of the 2008 financial crisis in some ways. if you actually go back and look at it and the government has made, effectively, off, t effectively, after taking it over there are lots of sides to the story. >> that's the question some things maybe shouldn't be privatized former president trump teasing the launch of the digital asset.

he will host a live stream on x on that platform on monday for the launch of the project backed by him and his sons don junior and eric called world liberty financial for borrowing and lending. i don't know if he can use it to buy sneakers or other -- i'm not going to go into it. maybe i'll quickly say it. someone said quickly i think it was the guy from the journal. as far as project 2025 trump said i haven't even read it he goes, in this case, i actually believe him that he hasn't everybody laughed. i chuckled that's probably not a stretch. probably not a stretch i'm not going to ask i'm the only one who can say that. coming up, another black eye for boeing

production coming to a standstill as 0,30,000 workers 'l strike. wel have phil lebeau with the latest coming up as we go to break, here is a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers bo >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business next level moments need the next level network. but all you didt in, you didn't do anything neither did you exactly exactly exactly exactly impressed? honestly, a little exactly (slurp) ordinary problems are for ordinary companies. we're here to fight the big, intimidating, impossible-to-change problems. [beeping] from developing treatments at unprecedented speed

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more than 30,000 boeing workers are now on strike after the union rejected the latest contract proposal. phil lebeau joins us right now from everett, washington phil, we knew a strike was a possibility, but i think it is a little shocking to see just the percentage of the strikers who voted against that package >> reporter: becky, when i came out here two days ago, almost immediately when you started -- when i started talking with machinists about the upcoming vote, it was very clear. it was going down. when we were with the members yesterday as they were waiting in line, i didn't come across a single one who said, yeah, i think i can go for this. it was very clear that this contract was going to be

rejected so here's what the strike at boeing, the first one in 16 years, this is what it means 94.6% of the machinists rejected the contract they voted no. 96% said they are going to go on strike they approved going on strike. at the heart of the contract that was rejected, a 25% raise over four years. that's not enough according to these workers. so 33,000 are walking off the job. it is the first strike since 2008 here at boeing. for the workers, it is not just rejecting the current contract, but making up for previous contracts that they feel were unfair >> that original contract was gar garbage. that wage increase was not applicable to what the inflation and everything's been, right we build airplanes people just us with their lives. >> i've been here for 27 years and had our pension taken and had everything taken away from

us we had stagnant wages for the last 12 years. we're trying to get what we lost on the back. >> one of the biggest problems i feel is the pension is gone. i've been here for 18 years and i gott ten years of pension. yes, i understand if the pension is gone, they need to give us something to be able to support our families >> reporter: after the machinists union announced the strike late last night, boeing released a statement the message is clear that the tentative agreement we reached with the leadership is not acceptable to the membership we are ready to get back to the table and to reach a new agreement. it may take some time. the last strike lasted more than 50 days back in 2008 most believe this strike will

continue for several days at a minimum and i would not be surprised if it stretches beyond that as you look at shares of boeing the estimates of what it will cost the company minimum of $5$500 million to $1 billion. this will put further pressure on the cash flow of the company, but financially. near-term financials, the impact will be severe for boeing, it's a matter of how quickly they can get back to the table and negotiate a contract the workers here plan to stay out. i would be surprised if we see an agreement any time soon >> $100 million a day, again, phil do we double that? >> reporter: the last strike -- sorry, guys, we're right here

next to the entrance the last strike in 2008, the estimate is it hit cash flow $100 million a day that's what it was back in 2008. back of the envelope map and we tried to ask a couple of analysts for their projections it will probably be close to that, joe, as a minimum. they delivered 40 aircraft last month. the deliveries this month once the strike kicks in? it will be minimal at most the few that have been built and ready to be delivered can be delivered, but production has stopped. >> phil, what's your sense of what the union actually wants? is it simply a higher pay raise over the course of the contractorcon contract or is it more with the pensions what else do they want >> reporter: two biggest issues. pensions being restored and 40% wage increase.

25% is not enough especially with the annual bonus going away every year after the initial signing bonus of $3,000. the workers say 25% doesn't cut it they want to be closer to 40%. can they get to 35%? maybe. >> nobody has the fine benefit plans anymore. if it was 50 days last time, that's $5 billion. i did, as you said, back of the envelope >> reporter: joe, i understand what you're saying you see fewer and fewer companies with a pension defined benefit pension. they had one since 2016. the older members want it restored i don't think boeing will go there ultimately boeing will do a 401(k), we are not going into a defined benefit pension. >> do they not have a 401(k)

>> reporter: they have a 401(k). that's what boeing wanted and they went there in 2016. right, becky, you can always sweeten the pot at some point g get the rank-and-file say i didn't get the pension, but i got a greater contribution to the 401(k) that's a possibility i understand i hear this from people saying i don't have a pension i don't know any company that has a pension these days this company had it since 2016 that's why they want it restored. >> phil, we will continue to check in with you throughout the morning. phil lebeau is live at the boeing strike scene in everett, washington thank you, phil. coming up, when we return, wheels up founder kenny ditcher found his next act targeting the high-net worth crowd we will tell us about it when "squawk box" returns

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welcome black to "squawk box. wheels up founder has an experience club for brands and individuals. joining us with more is kenny ditcher. you are a serial entrepreneur. we are excited about your endeavors in the world what are you trying to do here >> we put together a sports, lifestyle and experience club that is really there to support industries that are growing and where we have our expertise. as you know, andrew, the aviation was a great chapter for me, but it was really about the people and trust and accountability like i said -- >> when you say it's a club, explain the club. >> the club is -- first off,

individuals, families and corporations can play and we are going to throw the best events at the best events, but a really robust stable events calendar that is going to be supported by unbelievable benefits. like i said, humans have an innate desire to assemble. being a sociology major, i never would have thought about this. >> when you assemble cool events you can go to, how much do you pay to go to said events >> i'll start by saying i think we're going to support a couple of really big sectors and i've done diligence, andrew, over the last year on the sports tech which is the gaming, sports betting and daily fantasy. these companies, there was $135 billion bet last year and it's

growing at 15% or 20% a year with half the states of america. you look at fanduel and draftkings and mgm there is such an opportunity to partner with them in a digital way. >> just break it down in a very, very simple way. this is a club, you are calling it a club. >> yup >> it's a credit card? it's a card? you get a card as part of the club >> you get a card to denote your membership when you have that, it's a pass if you will, to get into the very special bespoke events. >> just go through the economics of the club. how much do you pay for the card or to be a member of the club? >> there's three ways to do it one is if you are a corporation, you can pay $25,000 or $50,000 or $100,000, similar to the private aviation it is almost like we're

fractionalizing the hospitality for the companies that do over $20 million a year and the fortune 500. if you are an individual and you are looking at the fund deficit, it is not what you have anymore, but what you do. again, with 22,000 -- i'm sorry. 22 million millionaires in the united states, 22 mil million millionaires in the united states, 85% of them self made it is experimental >> how much is the travel? to get to the economics of it. >> the individuals can buy their way into the events. it could be $10,000, 25 or 50 or 100. i think partnering with corporations, there won't be any pay. this is the right way for people to have good, clean fun at the big events in the world.

>> for the big corporations, is it buying loyalty? >> very simply, they are going to be outsourcing their corporate hospitality to companies like us. i think the day of the morgan stanley and american express putting up the big events, they want to be plugged into the right events speaking of the tech business, there is a loyalty of that business under index in physicality what we learn back at wheels up and net jet with the 90% retention rate if you take care of your clients on the ground, we will take care of you. >> we talked on the phone about this now i thought i understood it and now i'm not understanding it if i'm an individual and i want to become part of this, how much am i paying on an annual basis to participate in the club

>> there's no membership fee you can buy it a la carte. >> buy what? >> access to the events that we're putting on stable calendar from the super bowl to augusta we're going to go push in on the women's final four events that's going to be done at that level at the women's event. obviously, everyone know the women out rated the nmen in the final four. >> wheels up is a great chapter for you and not delta. you take care of the customers how do they take care of you back the economics of the business. >> ed bastian has been the best partner i've ever had and delta is the back end. if there is anything i would have done differently is call ed three or four years earlier what he is handling on the back end

i think wheels up is in great shape. ed put 150 million in and a year ago about $50 million. >> it's still an unprofitable darkz. >> you look at uber and others that are scale wall street was rewarding growth at that time you know, like i said, i'm really proud of what we did at wheels up. i think it's in great hands. ed, georgeholtz, dave harvey, that's the team that will be able to get it profitable on the back end and i think the front end speaks for itself. >> the new club is called real slx. >> real slx sports. >> r-e-a-l can anybody join >> anybody can join. we're going to be open for business probably first week in november but we're going to be out there

promoting this stable calendar of events, this wonderful set of benefits, and, again, like i said, i think of that industries that need us, and i really look to these growing industries, joe. i know you like to put a little action on once and a while. >> people that bet a lot, and remember i $3 on the white sox the other day. i may not be your guy. $3 you want my business >> $3, i was going to say tough to get you -- >> it is embarrassing. do not admit you bet $3 on a game it was to win $18, andrew. >> that changes things. >> that is not a bad thing where the real opportunity is, digital companies, under index if you will on taking care of people in the physical world, so, if you are asking me what the business is in one sentence, it is not what you do, it is not what you say, it is how you make people feel. and we're the best in the business at that and look forward to partnering

again with the sports tech industry, anybody that is in entertainment, fanduel, i think about draft kings, i think about bet mgm. >> i had buffalo on the under. $16. >> $38 billion cap jason robbins, one of the best entrepreneurs in the space, $18 billion cap from zero. >> we wish you lots of luck with it always exciting to see your next endeavor. >> what's left for you >> i appreciate it the most - ♪ ♪

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

when we come back, nvidia making a comeback from its late summer slump the a.i. chipmaker up about 15% this week. should investors jump on the stock at these levels? we will talk about that next "squawk box" will be right back. [beeping] from developing treatments at unprecedented speed to addressing threats to global health.

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after it posted results in mid-august this week the stock is up roughly 15%. joining us now for more on the company and the sector is joseph moore, morgan stanley senior semiconductor analyst. let me ask you, joseph, what happened this week, what is pushing the momentum one direction or the other on this stock? >> yeah, i think for me the bigger surprise was what happened in the prior couple of weeks, you know? the quarter was really good. they beat by $2 million which has never happened, nvidia started a year and a half ago and i understand they're wrestling with the expectations issues and there is some gross margin questions that came up. i was surprised at this sell-off this is our top pick demand is very, very strong and at this point, focusing on this sort of product cycles and things like that, it is very important, we want to see the company execute to that. really the key issue is just the strength of the business and we heard that from jensen this week at a conference. we heard that from a number now of significant executives on the customer side, how much they're

committed to these workloads so, i think this is still, you know, a very compelling story. and, again, to me, i was a little -- i don't know exactly why it was up this week, i don't know why it was down so much last week, but the stock is very reasonably valued with good growth prospects going forward i think that when the product was launched in march, they discussed some price points, you know, on cnbc at one point, and that's a little bit unusual. i think they're very focused on can we continue to provide value, can we continue to grow the market and they're probably more focused on that than the specifics of gross margin. there is going to be a little pressure here in the next couple of quarters, which is just the early stage of that, we're ramping item the there are going to be low yields initially. they're expanding the scope of products there will be a microprocessor

with grace there is going to be a switch they sell, there is going to be a lot of things they're selling that could have lower gross margin we have gross margins down by a point next year. i don't think it that big a deal in the context of the operating margins. i think the question is yes, it is a tad lower, but doesn't change the fact that the gross margins are still very good. >> the stock is just under 120 you got is $150 price target on it what is that the time frame for that that's an increase even though you think they could have ha rougher time over the next two quarters >> you know, i think that they have a very strong 12-month window ahead of us new products that they're shipping, blackwell, are effectively, you know, accounted for through 2025 the question becomes kind of growth there after and that's -- when that's the debate it gets a little harder for the stock. for me, i like the stock best

when there are near term issues they're kind of working through. because i have a lot of faith in just how strong this business is and so, you know, you've seen this a couple of times now over the last year and a half, you saw lead times come down in the early part of this year, people sold the stock on that, when there was concern that blackwell was almost too good and we had this kind of pause in hopper sales, we had a delay, all of those things are great setups because you're selling picks and shovels into a gold rush and the strength of the gold rush is the main thing here. it doesn't -- the new products are really important and i want to get them out. doesn't really change how good the numbers are. we like it better when you have the issues, you still have questions overhanging the stock. so i'm not necessarily calling for 150 right away i think these are a good buying opportunity, these issues that have been dragging on the stock of late. >> joseph moore from morgan stanley, thank you >> thank you it is just past 7:00 a.m. on the east coast you're watching "squawk box"

right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and becky quick on this friday morning got a lot going on among the top stories, more than 30,000 boeing workers in washington state and oregon officially going on strike this just happened a few hours ago after overwhelmingly rejecting a new labor contract we're going to get a live report from everett, washington, later in the hour. that's having an impact on the stock this morning they have ripples throughout the airline industry oracle bumping up its revenue forecast for fiscal 2026 the company sees at least $66 billion in annual revenue, about a billion and a half more than analyst estimates. shares of oracle up 15% since reporting better than expected results earlier this week. and sony music reportedly in talks to buy the rights to the pink floyd songs for, are you ready for it, $500 million the band's catalog includes some of the best-selling hits of the last 50 years such as "another brick in the wall" and "wish you were here.

that price tag very similar to bruce springsteen's catalog price tag, which i think are at least comparable >> see, we're a different generation for me, time and money and comfortably numb and i go all the way back to metal and obscure by cloud and -- >> more money in that, though? >> no, not necessarily just for culturally -- may be my favorite band. >> that may be i'm thinking -- >> david gilmore released a new album. he just released a new -- >> i respect what they do. >> well, you were -- >> high. >> yeah, you know, shrooms, maybe. they're back they're make a big comeback. the thing about acid, it just comes back on its own. just whoo, whatever. let's get a check on the futures this morning >> no one saw that

>> no it was not on camera do it again. >> tracers on your -- >> tracers >> no? >> let ga's get a check -- >> ever had a drink? >> no. nothing. >> i'm a straight man on the show. >> nothing >> let's look at the futures -- >> let's get to this guy this guy this guy will chime in >> dom chu, want to weigh in on the futures or the rest of the conversation here this morning >> come on, cheech and chong. >> i'm not sure if i'm -- >> come on. >> i don't know. you know, i would just say it was not the conversation i thought i would be listening to at 7:00 a.m. it is ironic, because andrew and i were both at the same year graduating from the same college. >> did not know each other. >> did not know each other then. >> and you didn't show up at the reunion. where were you >> probably working. >> it was funny, a lot of my

friends were at the reunion with you and i remember because they sent me photos with them with you in the photos, so cornell class of 1999, shoutout, i'm sorry i did not make the reunion, i will try to make some of the ones going forward. but i feel good because, andrew, you were there representing all of us very well. >> maybe different than boulder. boulder in the '70s may be different than ithaca. >> i think there was a good amount of fraternity and perhaps alcohol consumption, but i'm not sure -- >> both of you frat rats, right? >> yeah, a lot of guys were. we'll get started -- i'll get to some business now and then we can figure out how much time is left after that. we'll check on shares of adobe, down about 8% after the software company reported a beat for both profits and revenues, but issued more disappointing guidance. its digital media business and subscription revenues grew by 11% year on year the ceo did tell cnbc that

despite the weaker outlook, he's bullish about the future and a.i. initiatives check out adobe shares moderna, down just roughly maybe 3.5% at this point, downgrades at jpmorgan and jeffries contributing to that jpm going to underweight from a neutral. jeffries to a hold from a buy. those analysts saying generally speaking that changes moderna's revenue outlook and poor feedback from the fda is weighing on the stock. the shares down 32% over the course of the past year to date period and we'll end with eli lilly on the pharma side as well. shares are up slightly a third of 1% after citigroup analyst resumed coverage of the company with a buy rating and a $1,060 price target they're optimistic on sales and guidance for the company's diabetes drugs check those shares out and by the way, for more on those and other top analyst calls of the day, go to cnbc.com/pro, subscribers get more access to all the detail and analysis behind the day's big calls and stories.

becky, joe, commentary i have. i'll send it back to you guys. >> you were there at the same time. >> same time, didn't know. >> not a big -- >> no, massive massive. >> how many, dom >> in what >> in our class. >> in our total class, has got to be 3,000, maybe >> dunder mifflin, the office, huge nbc hit andy bernard went to cornell too. >> okay. >> thanks, dom >> for more on the markets, as the focus turns to the fed policy meeting next week, let's bring in natalie lavelle i'm trying to do some of this math welcome. good it see you. thanks for coming into the studio 100 basis points in 2024, which seems like there could be a 50 in there, maybe. >> potentially, yes. you know, we think that the inflation data is good enough,

what is going to determine the magnitude and cadence of that is the growth data. we understand the bar is high heading into next week for 50 basis points cut but we're not out of the woods yet. we have retail sales next week on the 17th. if that comes in weak enough, maybe down half a percentage point, that could put 50 basis points on the table. i think right now the fed remains somewhat noncommittal and the decision will be made closer to the meeting. so, our base case is for 100 basis points this year and a lot will depend on the data. we're all data dependent if the economic data is more resilient, it is a bit less, maybe 75 basis points. >> you think they can do it without scaring anyone that the economic numbers and backdrop would allow for 50 basis points, but people wouldn't say, oh, my god, what do they know >> absolutely. so far the data seems to suggest 25 basis points, but we know

that monetary policy acts with a lag. the growth data, if it starts the week, it has been mixed. we're getting mixed signals from the job market the fed would want to get ahead of that. we're so close to this soft landing, we know it hasn't been achieved many times in history i don't think that chairman powell wants this -- if he needs to move aggressively, we think the committee will be able to do that. >> bumpy bumpy but 5900, which i think a lot of people would settle for that on the s&p by year end. that's a good move between now and the year end. >> it is it has been a good year so far yeah that's our target. it has been a good year so far things are choppy now. the market is trying to discern, you know, the macro data, whether we're on course for soft or hard landing we think we're on course for a soft landing what is encouraging is that the consumer reigns resilient and corporate commentary doesn't suggest any sort of broad-based

slowdown the economic data and the earnings data is looking good. also what is encouraging, you're seeing a broader rally let's talk about it is no longer just a megacap tech story. you have financials outperforming utilities. we talk about the one semiconductor stock, another stock up over 100%, it is utilities. that's encouraging we think when we put all that together, you can get to 5900 this year. some chop around the way, no he. >> and the broadening of a.i., not just nvidia, you think you can find some other names? >> you're seeing that already. that utility that i talked about. at the end of the day, you heard jensen talk all week about chomping at the bit for those chips, but you need utilities, electricity. so you're seeing utilities being part of the a.i. story as well >> okay. nadia, thank you friday the 13th. that's okay, right keeps returning to me. >> cross your fingers. >> i like the 13th.

>> i don't have that -- what's it called? the kind of phobia >> triskaidekaphobia >> triskaidekaphobia >> the fear of the number 13, yeah. >> when we come back, we'll see whether friday the 13th turns out to be lucky or unlucky the great tax giveaway, we'll talk about that. vice president harris and former president trump offering tax breaks neither side offering revenue offsets. we're going to dive into why tax giveaways are so popular for both campaigns i think we know the answer to that but we'll really give you some of the flip side answers to all of it. and then the ceo of ag1, kat cole talking about the rise of the daily health drink supplement i think this stuff every single day. i'm an advertisement for it. the state of the consumer and so much more when we come back.

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower! i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm.

it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. all right, call it the great tax giveaway both presidential candidates are offering new tax cuts for votes. robert frank joins us right now with a look at why tax giveaways have become so popular i think i might know the answer to this. >> and every day seems to bring a new tax break. yesterday, president trump proposing to exempt overtime pay from taxes so that was in arizona, where i guess a lot of people get overtime it is, like, every day we get a new one. you could call it the great tax giveaway both harris and trump adding new tax breaks during the campaigns to target key voters trump started with a $4 trillion tax cut, that's now added $200 billion in corporate tax cuts.

that's to bring the corporate rate to 15% for those domestic manufacturers. he would eliminate the tax on social security. that's a $1.6 trillion gift to older voters and he wants to exempt tip wages, that could cost around $200 billion over ten years. harris matching that tip wage handdown and raising trump with a new $6,000 child tax credit. that's triple the current credit she also may use tax credits for that new $25,000 home buying assistance she announced a $50,000 deduction for business startups and she wants to extend the 2017 tax cuts for those making less than $400,000 a year in total, trump proposing tax cuts of $6.5 trillion, that doesn't count last night's announcement his team saying the tariffs will help pay for it. harris planning $4.2 trillion in cuts that would be about $5 trillion of offsets, but nobody can score these things now because every

day we get a new tax giveaway. >> it's kind of stunning it used to be done a little more subtly this is not new, trying to buy votes. used to be more subtle now it is such broad swaths and little attempt to try and say, okay, we're going to make up for it by doing x, y or z, and as soon as one side announces it, the other side says we'll do that too. >> it used to be enough to say no new taxes we remember that, right? that was about as far as you could go and then the second thing was you would present your plan, before the campaign or during the campaign and that would be the plan now it is, like, every week, well, i'm going to do this, well, okay, i'm going to do this it is -- it is the during campaign ad hoc tax breaks that just keep -- >> is that a function, though, of sort of a fundamental shift, you think, in campaigning or do you think that's a function of this very unusual campaign, which is to say, you know,

biden, whether you liked it or not, had a plan, like, you could actually look at it, score it, it was like a thing, because he was running for like a year, right? >> how long has he been pitching student loan forgiveness total vote buying. >> very weird, unique moment where somebody is running a campaign in the course of 2 1/2 months, basically. and so you're not really -- we're not all getting it i think we would like to get it, obviously and trump is sort of even more just -- i don't know very unusual character, who is constantly -- >> student loan thing tpales everything in comparison it is not going to get through the courts struck it down every single time. >> i think it is exactly as you say,is reality where anyone who cares about numbers and math looks at the deficit and is terrified but what they -- both campaigns have discovered is that voters really don't care. of course they don't they want to keep spending and

let someone else take care of it so, i think there was at least some suspicion that voters did care about the deficit before, you couldn't just completely blow it out and have complete disregard for what these things would cost you would have to have an offset. >> why >> we see how large deficits have grown and say, well, it doesn't seem to matter yet and voters don't seem to care, but what they do seem to like are tax cuts >> yeah. >> so i think that's what's also changed. >> robert, thank you for staying on top of this and for going through and bringing it to us. >> we will, every day. >> thank you >> thanks. up next, previously the coo of north america for focused brands, which owns names like cinnabon she's now running one of the fastest growing nutritional supplement companies, backed by big numbers. kat cole, ceo of ag1 joins us next you drink it every day

athletic green. >> every single day. >> it keeps you regular? what >> i'll give you the whole rundown when we come back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what is the highest price ever recorded for a barrel of wti crude oil? the answer when "squawk box" returns. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! (♪♪)

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>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question what is the highest price ever recorded for a barrel of wti crude oil? the answer, $127 per barrel in july of 2008 welcome back to "squawk box. this is not a commercial, though i am into this thing in a big way. ag1, athletic greens, is a morning drink of choice for executives and athletes. investors include hugh jackman, cindy crawford and lewis hamilton joining us in her first interview as ceo of ag1, kat cole i drink it at night. i know most people drink is in the morning. >> about 10% of our customers drink it at night. >> we can talk about that. that's a whole separate thing. but for those uninitiated who don't know what we're talking

about, what is this? >> it is a daily health drink that combines a multivitamin, phytonutrient blend and probiotics in one scoop that supports energy, digestion, gut health and over time immunity because our immune systems are really driven by our gut health and millions of people drink this. >> how big of a business is this now? >> we will do over $600 million in revenue this fiscal year. profitable we have grown over 4x since our only investment round at the end of 2021. >> and a lot of people probably learned about this stuff from people like tim ferris and andrew huberman and all these podcasters and guys like that. that's sort of how this all got marketed there is a critique of this, i want to ask you about. >> yeah, yeah. >> the full ingredient list, nobody knows and nobody has seen and my doctor even says they want to know exactly what's in the thing. >> here we go. the multivitamin -- >> i know.

i know but, you know, you don't put the full ingredients of exactly what's in it. >> we do every single thing in the product is right here on the label, the multivitamin, the phytonutrient blend and the probiotics what the doctors are talking about, very common in the supplement industry, there will be recipes of fruits and vegetables and herbs that are part of the phytonutrient diversity that support gut microbiome health. the recipe, it is super hard to get that to taste good, is a recipe but the fda has the exact amounts. we give our customers the ranges if they want to know how much carrot or blueberry or a ashwaganda is in there we're conducting going beyond peer reviewed research on the ingredients and have invested in a set of studies on the finished blend, which most supplements do not have and in a separate -- >> so the truth is, i actually feel better taking this stuff. i can't even explain it to you

i've tried to get my wife to understand -- nobody -- it is very hard to articulate. what is it that's in there and how should people think about what this is >> how you should think about it is we were often told to take a multivitamin why? it is hard to get the nutrients we need in the modern diet we have been told to take probiotics and prebiotics to support gut health those are separate things that if you're not combining them for nutrients and gut health, you're not getting the optimal impact. >> can i just ask, how do you go from auntie ann's pretzels and cinnabon to the healthiest stuff you've ever seen >> i started to have my own health journey where i realized my energy, hair, skin and nails after my second kid were a real challenge. i was like many busy leaders, i go to whole foods or some grocery store, grab a bunch of pills and powders, try to follow the research, ended up with a cabinet full of supplements. yes. that were not working. and then i heard about this from my husband and the endurance

athlete community, started drinking it, it made a huge difference in my digestion, my energy, my immunity as well. i wasn't getting sick. >> i do it twice in a day and it is like a total -- >> it makes a huge difference. >> i was a customer before i connected with the company and then had the opportunity to come in and help run the company. take it to the next level and invest in far more research to your point, following an incredible hierarchy of clinical trials on the finished formula that regardless of the recipe that is in there proves the efficacy of the formula. >> let me throw out another critique as a user. >> yes, please. >> it is expensive this is not a cheap product. >> no. >> i think i spend something like $90 a month on this thing >> $3 a day. >> there are people outthere, read online, who say that you can get a lot of the stuff or most of the stuff or all of the stuff somehow if you knew what you were doing for, like, half the price or less on your own. >> yeah. >> what do you say to that

there are people trying to compete. >> there are >> who claim they can do everything in that bag, plus, plus, for half the price. >> there are plenty of cheap knockoffs and alternatives i don't know about you all, i want the best. and we invest in the most premium ingredients, millions in research, the ph.d. teams, the clinical trials, that is not inexpensive. it is a premium product for a customer who wants to invest in the best with not only the best ingredients, but 14 years of -- >> maybe speak to this, because becky asked about it earlier i'm intrigued by it. but i asked doctors and others, what do you make of cholestrom, it competes to some degree with this. >> some people combine it. >> what do you think of that >> the whole topic is the beneficial ingredients igg and others that support gut health and a diverse gut microbiome

it is something we're following closely. >> selling a version of that >> you never know. part of ag1's future beyond where we are, the $600 million in revenue is one product, one channel. our future is new channels and new products that might include additional ingredients for functional needs like that and others >> would you -- to andrew's point, would you buy it or would you create it yourselves >> there is access to incredibly high quality cholstrom out there. >> you sell a vitamin d3 product, which is interesting because people need more d3 than they get i don't get enough not to be an advertisement for this, but most people -- a lot of people take, like, vitamin d pills. terrible idea. explain what this is. >> ag1 was a multivitamin,

probiotic and phytonutrient blend, but we didn't put in two things that are important for nutritional daily health omega 3s are important, there are two reasons they're not in ag1. dk 32 needs to be in an oil form to be optimally an ly absorbed. we can throw it in there, but that's not efficacious so we put it separate in an oil form the other reason to your point, some people need a lot of supplemention of dk 32 many women are deficient if we put a little bit in, many people need to supplement on top. omegas, fish oils, don't don't want to drink fish, we leave it separate as the side car to ag1. >> i learned that the hard way and it worked for me i thought i would tell you about it >> fish oil, i don't know, man.

>> do you drink fish oil >> i don't i think people who do sweat it out and smell like fish. >> yes we got to get you drinking ag1 there is such a thing. there is such a thing. nutrients and gut health, drink them every day. >> thank you appreciate it. when we come back, we will head to everett, washington, where boeing workers have gone on strike. and later, congress took up two dozen bills this week, focused on u./in.scha relationships and issues the ranking member of the china select committee congressman raja krishnamoorthi will join us "squawk box" will be right back. revitalizes a community landmark. from selling a business to giving back to where you come from, a raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your family and the way you bring people together. that's life well planned.

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union rejected the company's latest contract offer. phil lebeau joins us now from the picket lines in everett, washington good morning, phil >> reporter: they have been out here for about four and a half hours. we're outside the everett plant for boeing they're also picketing outside of the boeing facility down in renton, washington, where they build the 737 max. and here's the reason why. they voted on the contract yesterday, and it was not even close to coming to passage

94.6% of those who voted rejected the contract. 96% said not only do we reject the contract, we're ready to walk off the job, which is what they did at midnight the deal included 25% raise over four years that's the primary issue for a number of the workers that we have talked to here. production has been halted and when we talked to the workers, when we got here, early this morning, all of them said the same thing they are prepared to stay out for as long as it takes. >> i've been here for 27 years and had our pension taken, had everything taken away from us. we had stagnant wages for the last 12 years, and we're trying to get what we got -- what we lost in the back. >> we haven't got a raise in so long it is not fair i've only been here for five years. and i work with people who have been here for over 20 who have gone through, you know, their house getting repossessed after a layoff, but they're still

here >> reporter: okay, so how long might this strike last well, if history is any guide, it will be a while before we see a resolution to this work stoppage at boeing the last strike in 2008, 58 days now, it is possible, kelly ortberg, the new ceo of boeing, is going to want to get this resolved as quickly as possible and he may get them back to the table, they have said they want to return to the table, you look at shares of boeing. why? because this is costing the company tons of money every single day sheila kiola at jeffries estimates the free cash flow impact, $1.3 billion per month that's the cost to impact for boeing as they do not deliver any aircraft and, yeah, there are a few aircraft that are built, essentially ready to go to the customers. those will be delivered perhaps in the next few days, next week, however long it takes to do the paperwork and then hand over the plane to the customer. but there is no production going on, guys

and every day that there is no production, you're looking at anywhere, 60, 70, $80 million, whatever the ultimate cost is going to be, this is going to put further pressure on shares of boeing which are, what, close to 52-week low right now that's the story from here in everett. we're going to go down to renton outside the 737 max plant a little bit later on this morning, where i'm sure we'll see as many workers as we see here, all voicing the same feeling that they need a better deal >> yeah. all right, phil. little bit quieter than -- you didn't move, did you did they move? did they leave you >> reporter: no, they took the boom box away. they had marshall mathers playing and then they left that's what happens, joe it ebbs and flows. a lot of people at midnight. 4:00 in the morning here, little calm, i'm sure it will pick up here once sunlight happens. >> do you see it pick up when they know you're broadcasting

live, phil that helps too, doesn't it >> reporter: yes yes. >> gets their attention. >> reporter: you know the camera and the light, it is like attracting flies there will be more people. >> right okay thanks, phil all right, when we come back, new data frothe m cnbc nrf retail monitor showing consumer spending cooled in august. we got the details right after the break. "squawk box" will be right back. she switched careers to make money for your weddings. ooh! penny stocks are blowing up. sweetie, grab your piggy bank, we're going all in. let me ask you. for your wedding, do you want a gazebo and a river? uh, i don't... what's a gazebo? something that your mother always wanted and never got. or...you could give these different investment options a shot. the right money moves aren't as aggressive as you think. i'm keeping the vest.

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all right, welcome back, everybody. we have new data from the cnbc nrf retail monitor steve liesman joins us right now. he's got more on this and we are eagerly awaiting, steve. what do you know >> yeah, good morning, becky after a strong july consumer spending eased back in august, but more toward the running average of the cnbc nrf retail monitor with mixed results from our 12 different sectors we'll get to that in a second. here is the headline data, the retail monitor powered with actual credit card spending from affinity solutions shows total retail sales, ex auto and gas, that's down from july, that's right at the one-year average for the series year over year the series is up

2.1% core retail, which takes out restaurants as well, increased 0.2%, that's down from 1% in july the year over year, raising to 1.9 from 1.7%. the sector breakdown shows results more mixed with seven of the 12 categories on the plus side, that compares with the strong july, where 10 of the 12 were on the plus side. this month, clothing and accessories up 2.1%. restaurants and bars doing well, 1.7% and nonstore retailers, up 1.5%. electronic and appliances down 0.9%, the second decline in a row. building and garden supplies down 1.3%. and sporting goods, hobby, music and bookstores down a stronger 2.9% but partially reversing a big gain last month. the nrf economists saying in their commentary the sector trends continue to show softness in consumer durables due to housing softness from still elevated interest rates but shows consumer spending trading higher in consumables, food,

clothing and eating out. after running a bit above trend, the retail monitor settling down more toward its average and this echoes other economic data that looks to be moderating, not crashing, but all creating worries among markets and economists because the uncertainty, where does it all settle down? a key to the outlook, i think, could come in watching discretionary items. continued weakness which is some stress by consumers but could be relief coming in the form of lower gas prices in the months ahead. and economists say people are still employed we had a weakness in hiring, but not a lot of firing. so that should keep the consumer going here. >> and, steve, i just saw this week, i can't remember if it was nrf or somebody else who was making the prediction for holiday spending, coming in maybe up 3% this year. i think the point was made it is the lowest since, like, 2018 or something. 3% is not terrible

>> it is okay. it is just like everything else, becky, we're moderating, we're coming down, but we don't know where we stop. and this is what creates the concern out there. this is what i guess the fear of a soft landing is always going to be. the data has to moderate in order for the economy to cool, bring down inflation, do all those fun things then you start hearing words like stagflation and if we're going to have the decline in growth with inflation remaining high i don't think that's the case. that's not my best outlook because i think if growth moderates, i think prices w will moderate with it. we had that sticky inflation report this week i didn't get a chance to tell you, the combination of the cpi and the ppi makes people think we'll get a soft pce at the end of this month. that's good for the fed. and there is a big argument about 25 or 50 with a lot of former fed officials saying they could live with 50 >> wow

okay game on. and it is coming up next week. steve, thank you. >> game on, yeah >> okay. coming up, prominent trump fund-raiser and founder of key square group scott bessent will join us right after the break. don't go anywhere. weathertech products are designed and manufactured in america using only american raw materials. most competitors make things seven thousand miles away... and then wonder why they don't fit. with weathertech in your vehicle you may hear angels singing as you marvel, how do they do it? simple. american technology and american workers deliver quality... not imported junk for a few bucks less. get the world's best floorliners and support america. find your fit at wt.com (♪♪) daughter: hey, dad. dad: hey, sweetheart. daughter: what are you doing? dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?!

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with security and get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! we are in the thick of the u.s. presidential election our next guest is a prominent fund-raiser for presidential candidate donald trump and just co-hosted a new york city fund-raiser, where jd vance was in attendance and prices ranged from $10,000 for a plate joining us to talk about his take on what we know about the two different approaches to running the economy, scott bessent, key square group ceo and founder. and we highlighted it again and again, scott, that we talk about the revenue side of things, and

what to do, whether to go up or down, with taxes, but neither side seems to be talking about the outlay side, the spending side of things which needs to be addressed. do you have an idea how to do it or how would 47 -- what we call them, how would a second trump presidency approach that >> thank you for having me look, i think we can look back to what happened in trump 1.0 and, you know, see the success there. but what we had now is a of gdp. we've nerve her that before. we're not in a recession, and not in a war what do we have to show for it i don't know eight charging stations? so i think president trump, i've had extensive conversations with him. we have a plan to talk about the discretionary spending, getting that under control

except for military. keep increasing the military, and, you know, go from there. >> what's the plan to get -- and i need to give you the -- well, what about, trump blew out the deficit, too twitter blows up if you don't say that every single time so neither administration was very fiscally responsible. >> no, no. go back to january 2020. we have to stop the clock for a year. >> okay. because of -- >> because of covid. people say trump tax cuts added to the deficit you've heard that, i know. >> sorry >> trump tax cuts added to the deficit. >> yeah. trump tax cuts, it's -- you go up before you come down from tax cuts, would have paid for themselves by 2022 because it's a growth strategy. reason i've come out from behind my desk for this election, because, you know, i -- i think this is the last chance for america to grow its way out of

this debt problem. if you can increase growth, you can change the trajectory and everything that i'm seeing from harris-biden is more taxes, more regulation we go into kind of a european-style malaise the government spending gets to be a bigger and bigger percent of the economy. >> the lowest quintar, scott, $64,000 of help. how much it comes. whether the tax credits, you actually get a check whether it's food stamps, whatever it is, now equals -- it was $7,0004, 40, 50 years ago at the lowest consquintile you n do almost as staying at home the piece from phil gramm this week in "the journal." that's where the spending is. >> i think we got to get americans back into the job market, right. >> and do you that with real

wage ncreases, which you know, we've seen negative real wage growth, and from households during harris-biden. >> what about the costs? >> sorry >> you say he's going to actually reduce costs. the efficiency plan he's going to run with elon musk not talked about that at all. >> let's look at this. historically the u.s. takes federal -- federal government takes in about 17.5 to 19% of revenues. >> right. >> since 2000. we've run about a 3% budget deficit since then and gotten to 7 because these folks have taken the spending up. so -- you know, we have to reproductize the economy. >> you're saying that he's going to reduce government spending. what i'm saying is, at least publicly, look, we had a conversation with mark cuban when he came on the problem. he said all sorts of plans that harris was going to pursue we

didn't know about he's heard about privately. you're saying you've heard about plans privately. i'm trying to understand what the plans are. >> first of all, you know, like, kamala harris is going to stop spending, it's like saying hannibal lectern is going to become a vegan scu come on. what do we have to show for it back to your question. >> show for it have a long conversation about it look at the stock market what you have to show for. you probably have a lot to show for it how much more money today than you had in 2020. >> a perfect point, because which kamala harris comes out and says she's going to be for the middle class. >> i know -- >> no, no. she has eviscerated the middle class. top 10 and 20% everybody at this table has done great and so i got plenty to show for it. the bottom 50% of wage earn, have gotten killed they continue to get killed. they've been in a recession two

years. if you are nongovernment adjacent or nongovernment -- the central government, there have been 250,000 jobs created. 250,000 jobs with all the private sector job wis with alle spending one thing that can be done turn off the inflation reduction act. kamala harris is an economic ill litry. the green new deal economic illiterate. out there saying, i cast the deciding vote for the inflation reduction act. it's inflation creation act. even larry summers said it shouldn't have been done scored originally plus $50 billion. now gone to negative $300 billion for the deficit and this thing is the doomsday machine. >> i know you care about the deficit. continue the conversation having with robert frank earlier today. talked about tax cut proposals thrown out there $4 trillion tax cuts from donald

trump adding $200 billion in corporate tax cuts to bring the corporate rate down to 15% for american manufacturing eliminating the tact on social security $1.6 trillion issue for older voters exempting tip wages cost around $3 b $2 billion and last night brought up not taxing overtime either adds $10 trillion over ten years. those are pretty big issues. i know you care about the deficit. how do you pay for them? >> i think -- i've had calls with a lot of republicans that keep the house in november there is a big appetite for pay forwards in the republican congress i think there are a lot of ways to do this but the main thing we have to do is extend or make permanent the tax cuts and job cuts. >> let me ask you a question you just said you think the top -- top 10% in america have done remarkably well and the

rest of the country has not. do you think that your taxes, therefore, then should be higher >> i think under donald trump 1.0 everybody did great. and i think we can get back to that. >> not disproportionate? >> sorry >> not disproportionate. i argue you and myself did better >> 100%. the data's not -- in terms of earnings,ing forget assets in terms of earnings. >> no, no. assets of a huge part of this. >> have soared -- >> because i'm in a blue state. >> doesn't matter. still federal tax that you -- paid more of because -- >> the point is everyone can do well wall street can do well. main street can do well. on wages, working-class wages went up for all demographics ant d and did better than managerially. >> let me ask you a question

former president trump talked about carrying interesting, you're a beneficiary of, being, like, murder that people in your business are getting away with murder actually the phrase he's used. would you advocate getting rid of carried interest? >> i'm not a beneficiary of carried interest mainly a private equity thing. i'm a humble hedge fund guy. >> would you -- >> i don't know the scoring on that i don't think it's much. >> therefore, you -- >> i haven't thought about it. i've thought about some of the bigger things. like this inflation reduction act. if you draw this out, it is 4.5 trillion. >> age-old question, scott, is -- everyone agrees. there's no way out of this without growth and i always -- people point to whether we've had a good economy or not for the last couple years. i go, tell me -- if it's not keyncon

canesian, tell me what it is there haven't been any the other side the democrats would say that they invest. where the growth will come from. and they're talking about spending talking about government investment do you see any benefit to the infrastructure, to helping -- i mean, if it's industrial policy. favorite chipmaker gets money but they point to the chips act they would point to the beneficiaries of some of the provisions of the green new deal all being investments in the future that could pay off. or do you think it's always about cutting taxes for the private sector for growth? >> i think it is about re-igniting the private sector we're going to have to -- >> regulation and -- >> well, like, keeping the tax cuts, maybe adding tax cuts by taking off the regulation. you know what did ronald reagan do he took off the regulation kennedy administration, nixon

administration. >> and spent a remarkable amount of money >> that was -- that was to win the cold war. >> sure, but -- >> you can do both. >> spent an enormous amount of money and that, then, funneled back into the economy. >> that's not how it -- >> how old are you >> go get economists on. >> read a history book or something? i was in the brokerage business watching the market go from 800 to 30,000. >> look how much money was spent during the year. >> reagan ignited four years of prosperity we're still benefiting from. >> my point here and i'm talking about the here and now is that we are going to take off these regulations, and re-ignite the growth growth -- if a 3% growth trajectory makes up for a lot of spending the difference between 1.8 and 3 is a panacea. >> a way out why you're here, scott, from anyone that is, i don't know

35 trickle down doesn't work. trickle down doesn't work. it's all we really have, growing the pie. all we really have. >> and it's not trickle down >> that's what they kale it. supply side -- >> joe, back to your earlier question. the harris-biden, it's a return to simple plan didn't work in the '60s or the '70s it's inflationary. it's a low return on investment. you know, what works is increasing the after-tax return. >> right. >> for american business and individuals. >> know what you don't have a twitter account. do you >> absolutely not. >> because you would get -- the thinking now is, scott, beyond belief it's like we just haven't done right this time. venezuela, i know what happened. they just didn't do it right we can do it right here. >> joe, what i find interesting about this campaign. everyone is saying, we had four years call it three years before

covid with donald trump. >> saying his handling of covid. the record to stand upon what happened after covid. >> talk about the handling of the economy. becky and why at the economic took questions from democrats and republicans. >> it was structured and set up. rule whose could ask questions. >> rules, but -- >> and why i didn't ask a question i wasn't allowed to ask a question. >> i'd love to ask a question. love to have the -- look, i would challenge kamala harris it show up as the economic summit she's been invited. >> not accepted. >> she's not going to show up. she can't do it. imagine tim walz giving the interview that j.d. vance gave yesterday? it was -- i watched it it was a master class. j.d. has complete control of economics. why don't we ask governor walz, what's the difference between what the federal reserve does and what treasury does you think he could answer it

>> we've got to -- very outspoken. >> to have you on. i don't know how you slipped through the cracks but thanks for being here. >> good. thanks. a quick look at futures right now. do look like we're in the green. 80 points higher on the dow. nasdaq up 16 points. nasdaq up about 134 points treasury ten year note at 3.659 two year 3.599 down to the new york stock exchange our good friend mike santoli is standing by what are you looking at? >> andrew, had about a 3.5, 4% rise in s&p 500 from lows two days ago wednesday morning. until yesterday's close. what happened? unemployment claims reports out mid-day yesterday maybe 50 basis point fed rate cut is in the debate for next week market seemed to grap b hold and find support at a familiar level. 5400 two days in the last week or so.

did bottom there sort of keeps you out of that well, from the early august sell-off for now, that's seems to be what is sustaining the tactical side of the market as everybody tries to assess whether soft versus hard landing, which way that's going to break take a look over two years at consumer discretionary versus staples. a big comeback of consumer staples and other defensive stocks yields down, people concerned about growth two year basis, though, by the way basically where the cyclical bull market started october 2022 basically neck and neck. still discretionary hanging in there. not really falling apart for all the concerns about the stretch consumer especially among lower-income house holds hanging in there not leadership watch this relationship. finally, ai trade isworking of this cushion built up over the last year and a half etf full of a.i.-related stocks an a lot of broad tech now it has faltered also relative to the s&p 500.

look at the big lead we had there. then a comeback. having to rethink about that last two days, nvidia finds the buyers, of course. video game on again. single options gate is well under way. see how this one plays out as well. >> mike, thank you mike santoli. when we come back, opec and the iea lowering demand growth forecast for oil this week dan yergin of s&p global joins us after the break to talk about the oil patch. we'll be right back. cloud based bank embarking on a transformational opportunity in the united states. we recently closed the purchase of a u.s. bank, which gives us full access to the u.s. market. that's very exciting for us because now we can launch our receivable purchase program fully in the united states. what we developed it in canada, and it was very, very popular. as far as we know. there's nothing else like it in the united states.

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slightly higher. wti up about 1.25% inching closer to $70 at $69.83. what white house senior energy advisor said yesterday on the state of oil prices. >> they're coming down because of two reasons one, despite the opec cuts production in the united states and fluxion a few other countries are at all-time highs. the other reason demand in china seems to be a lot softer than people thought. >> joining us right now is dan yergin he is s&p global vice chairman, and, dan, let's talk through

some of these issues it's hard to get anywhere without running into politics on one side or the other these days, but let's take a look at where oil prices stand why don't you explain why you think we've seen oil prices at the lowest level seen in a couple of years recently >> two reasons, i think. one obviously is china for a number of years china has been leader in oil demand and slowed way down. basically a weaker demand. at the same time, by the western hemispheres adding those million barrels this year another million barrels next year opec wanting to bring supply back into the market, doing it more quickly than they thought. pmis show manufacturing is leading in china and elsewhere in the world, too. so there's a larger kind of supply as well prices hovering around what was

the bottom of the oil price. >> so and demand marking both sides but probably for consumers by bringing these prices down. what do you think the longer-term outlook will be, if we continue to produce at these levels if you continue to have weakness in china and elsewhere >> i think that means that oil prices will be -- lower than you know -- 85, 90 until you have the chinese economy, and putting timing on that is difficult. looking at gasoline, with an election, the data, close tos 3$3 a gallon that's on the table. >> dan, hate to do this, but we are having a very hard time hearing you. the audio quality is really not good i think we're going to --

>> is that better now? >> that's a little better. yeah that is a little better. if we're taking a look at the oil transition okay, if you think over the short-term it's not going to improve what do you think the next issue is that affects oil prices >> it's still what happens in the world in terms in particular whether there's a clash in israel which would -- involve iran geopolitics hovers over this. >> what we're waiting on watching supply/demand, hoping for the best looking geopolitically dan, again, audio not working very well. sorry to cut this short. we will have you back soon. >> okay. >> dan yergin, appreciate your time today. united signing a deal with elon musk space-based internet service starlink to bring wi-fi to flip fliers for free.

take a few years to scale up united says it will begin early testing, or begin early next year with service beginning later in 2025. well and fliers, always good to be able to surf the web do what you need to do. coming up next, illinois democratic congressman raja krishnamoorthi going to join us. "squawk box" will be right back. the enemy is always adapting... deepfake: hey handsome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] ...always iterating. ♪♪

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all the incredible opportunities unleashed by higher learning. start your future and apply today at contracosta.edu/free this country we shipped a lot of good manufacturing jobs to places like east asia. now china makes some of the critical things we need. antibiotics, prescription drugs god forbid weapons our troops need if we went to the war against a nation like china. we have to be smarter about our own self-reliances a departure between president trump's vision and 30, 40 years of failed leadership in this country. >> gop presidential nominee j.d. vance talking china with us

yesterday right here on the set. u.s./china policy a big focus on capitol hill this week members of congress dove into key economic and national security issues. joining us to talk about it congressman raja krishnamoorthi of illinois. ranking member of the house china select committee and, congressman, thank you, first of all, for being here. what did you think of china week on the hill? >> thank you so much for having me china week was weak on china it was notable for what it did not address. nothing to significantly address the fentanyl crisis. nothing on critical minerals nothing to repair our industrial supply base and nothing to enhance our competitiveness such as by fixing our immigration system or upgrading skills of our workforce. a big missed opportunity, becky. >> why what happened? >> i think that unfortunately speaker johnson did not try to adapt a bipartisan approach that our committee has adopted with

regard to these issues look, this is not lost on the chinese communist party. they believe we're hopelessly partisan, hopelessly divided and tribal, and so we have to play against type, and come together on a bipartisan basis, united. you know, with regard to our approach on these central challenges, and unfortunately this week the house republican caucus took a different tact >> what happened because in the past when we've had you on there always seemed like there wasn't a lot of daylight between you and the republicans on the committee >> i think that what happened was unfortunately speaker johnson decided to adapt certain proposals that just did not have support across congress, and, by the way, that included a mmong certain members of the gop because of that i think that we

missed the opportunity to, for instance you know, advance meaningful issues, such as outbound investment controls, as well as restrictions with regard to other issues where, unfortunately, the chinese are benefiting because of our lack of action, and so we have to take action now. >> in terms of that, do you think that this is because it's an election year or do you think -- not that it's an election year, a couple months or less than 60 days until the election >> i'm shocked that, you know, people would think that an election somehow influenced what's happening yes. i think that's absolutely what's going on i think unfortunately you know, speaker johnson has taken the approach that he wants to try to adapt certain policies that might curry favor with the gop base, but that don't have widespread support in congress

and when you don't have widespread support in congress you can't get anything done. and, again, the chinese communist party benefits from that, and i hope that we can take a different tact going forward. >> let me ask which candidate you think the ccp would prefer to see in the white house come january? and, you know, i would say china has, the chinese communist party probably has not been thrilled with anything they've heard from either of these candidates but heard i like the idea of trump there less, because tariffs he's talking about would be higher and there is an instability factor the ccp doesn't really love instability looking at nations that it competes with? >> well, so, there's a famous book called "america against america" which was written by a guy named wong huning. kind of one of the top seven

advisers to xi jinping in the p pul pullit bureau. when donald trump pits american against american, whether it's republicans against democrats or whether it's one you know, ethnicity against another, that plays into, you know, china's theory why we ultimately will not be able to compete against them. so i think they like donald trump creating chaos or instability here within america. they liked january 6th they liked the fact that donald trump helped instigate that. so i believe that they would favor donald trump across the bargaining table relative to them i think the biden administration has taken really tough positions especially with regard to controls on outbound investment,

controls with regard to the export of key technology, which they deeply, deeply don't want. as well as increasing te idetere in the south china sea and taiwan i don't think they'd be enthusiastic about kamala harris becoming president. >> congressman krishnamoorthi, thank you very much for joining us this morning. >> thank you so much. coming up, tech investors alan patricof, skyrocketing open a.i. what it all means and hoop cashing in on the effort to stop kids from using cell phones in the classroom? bring you that interesting story after thiss ll ckfthi ts. awe in any business, you ride the line between numbers and people. what's right for the business and what's best for everyone who depends on it. solving today's challenges

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box. julia boorstin joins us to break this down and who's benefiting from the trend beyond hopefully the students, julia? >> exactly, andrew a growing number of smartphone bans are creating a business boom for more basic technology a trend affectionately called "dumb tech." nine states enacting laws or policies restricting k-12 cell phone usage in schools including completely banning smartphones in school. here in los angeles, the second largest school district a ban put in effect on smartphones in schools early next year. the u.s. surgeon general calling for warring on social media, parents and schools thinking about alternatives to the current trend of giving kids phones the national institute of health says as many as 53% of children have a smartphone by age 11. one company benefitting from smartphone backwbacklash, on trt

double pouches to 2 million across all united states and gap. safe phones just for kids. doubled number of phones sold every year for the past five years. another company called lightphone designed its streamlined devices which offer calls, texting and navigation for adults who want to minimize distraction, but the devices have been embraceed by younger users along with some schools and parenting organizations that are working to drive adoption of these streamlined devices with teens. the market for these phones and other tools to limit kids' access to the internet and social media is expected to grow further. france just announced its doing a trial ban on mobile phones for kids age under 15 and they can roll it out across the country. >> i'm a fan where do you land? >> i am a fan as well. we're going through this now with our 13-year-old, and what

he said was really interesting talked to the ceo of lightphone. enthusiastic he said fine if everyone's doing it you can't be the only one. that's what's so powerful about the bans the kids don't feel excluded or left out everyone has to lock up their phones. >> fascinating story julia, thank you appreciate it. coming up, breaking import price data and then an interview with economist claudia sahm. yes, the sahm rule that's her stay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

we are just seconds away from the new import price data futures ahead of that have been higher dow futures up almost 90 nasdaq up by 10. s&p by 12. over to rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago rick, take it away. >> yes import prices pap month over month headline number expected to be down 0.2%. comes in down 0.3% and if you strip out petroleum down 0.1 actually a bit lighter month better, actually expecting a number up 0.2.

rearview mirror is 0.2 on that headline number just to point it out minus 0.3 actually is the biggest negative month over month change going back all year until december of last year. and that minus 0.1, well that is the biggest negative month over month change ex petroleum going back to -- only until three months ago but still a nice improvement now, a wide look on those import prices and go year over year up 0.8 up 0.8 that, of course, is a dramatic decrease from 1.6 last month, and if you look at up 0.8, that would be the smallest going back to march when it was 0.4 finally, let's go export prices. month over month, down 0.7 down 0.7 that equals play to find a bigger negative month over month change, you would have to go to may of last year finally, the long view on export prices down 0.7

once again, that's a dramatic, dramatic change from up 1.4. down 0.7 equates to april. learning they've been volatile up and down. now seeing a lot of export prices reflecting weaker demand overseas and watch what's going on in markets like crude oil giving us an idea what's going on in other countries. in terms of import prices, of course, even though on the year over year they were positive, up 0.8, it's much smaller than we've seen maybe issues with our consumers as well. look at interest rates,en been a week where we definitely moved lower, but to the extent it's fairly interesting it's equal on a yield curve basis. so as we sit right here around the 3.59 on the two year, down 6 basis points on the week look at a ten year, 365, also down half a dozen basis points on the week. no real change on some of the spreads. i did point out yesterday, if to

2s to 10s, a two and a half year steepness that spread. the dynamic of longer data treasuries more stubborn on the interest rate side is a dynamic i think we need to get used to for while. back to you. >> thank you. steve liesman joins us with more i have to say heading into that number, well, yeah interested in the jobs number last week. the cpi and ppi this week. import data a stretch. however, i will say that bigger than expected decline, except when you strip out oil prices, maybe it is something we should watch closely to get a picture what's happening with the oil markets and what that means more broadly? >> yeah, well, as usual, becky, your ins tutuition is right america is more of a closed economy than others.

america is really a price maker, not a price taker, so to speak not something that moves the needle a whole lot but does tell you a bit what's going on overseas, and maybe some of the disinflation coming out of china. i noticed, by the way, a big decline in what are imported, export airline fares down big. i guess that's international travel both ways. that's telling us what's going on i like to watch the import prices on capital goods, and what's happening there in terms of those imports but one other thing that's happening, becky, i want to get a fresh quote on this. a little rethink on 50 versus 25 it was not moved by this data, but there's been, as you know, a little more talk about a 50. i thought the market really settled down after the cpi and ppi data in its confidence in the 25 next week but now we've got a 43% probability of a 50 coming up next week. i think that comes from some of

the comments from former fed officials, and maybe put all of this together for something on monday, but, you heard master s messter could live with a 50 and all about a down payment and whether or not the fed can sell a 50 in a way that's, hey, we got to get to a certain place. so we might as well get going in a fast way with the other side of that being, well, maybe it could spook the market and the response to that is, well, could the fed put a lot of language around a 50. say this is not a panic move this is a down payment getting where we're going faster the trouble with that on the other side, hate to give you a multihand explanation here, it's that the market may start to bake in 50s if the fed doesn't want to deliver. i'm still in the 25 camp barely with majority at the 57%. but it's interesting to think that these former fed officials

think maybe a 50 is the way to go next week >> good. because it puts drama into that decision for next week good for us. by the way, you don't usually go with the monochromatic dark shirt, dark jacket, no tie i like it. >> a nighttime look. >> stole it from jon fortt looks good. >> well, yeah. i'm always trying to, you know, work the edges of fashion, because i'm a fashion-forward person >> appreciate it. >> what we think, what we always say. concerts coming up you're not performing anywhere none of that. >> playing tomorrow night. we have a sold-out show up in connecticut, and -- next we -- >> i might -- >> we like it. >> because, joe -- i can always get you in, buddy. >> get me in. >> i can always get you in. >> you can get me in. >> where are you playing, steve? >> up at, the chat farm in western connecticut tomorrow

night, and next week we're at -- >> and something's sold-out it's not really sold-out. that's the truth. >> sold out for you. >> restaurants, too. yeah >> as we say, friends and family always, we always have a ticket for friends and family. >> and we are gladly your friends and family, steve. thank you. for a closer look at this week's economic data and implications for the fed getting ready to cut interest rates we bring in former economist, new century advisers known for the sahm rule e helping identify recessions in realtime great to have you on, claudia, and i know exactly what you mean that rules are meant to be not necessarily always applicable, but then i'm saying, why make the rule in the first place? because i have used your name so many times about this -- we basically went up enough to where it should apply. why doesn't it this time and simply put, if unemployment,

if the rate goes up enough, you would expect a recession you don't expect it this time? >> i don't think we're in a recession right now. the sahm rule triggered increased thresholds historically wom in early months of a resource. not a forecast the u.s. economy is not in the recession right now. the sahm rule is picking up on a cooling, a weakening in the labor market but that's not all that's there. we do have a still very disruptive labor market. we have a lot of labor supply coming in. new workers. whether immigrants or people coming off the sidelines because we've had a great labor market a good thing but takes time for nem to get work and right now the hiring rate has fallen back and so it starts showing up in up employment. that is a problem, but it's not a recession. not a recession problem. just as serious. just not the same thing.

this time is so unusual and different. the whole project of carefully tracking the labor market, looking for indicators of a recession is important, we should keep at that. but right now we've got to be really careful with historical patterns >> the inversion didn't work the nfl, the indicator does work for the super bowl nothing, we can't count on anything but your point is normally if it wasn't unprecedented if we didn't have a, you know, once in 100-year pandemic and the after-effects, maybe we wouldn't be seeing the situation? is that right? >> wouldn't see triggering the recession level. already seen enough weakening in demand for workers that say it ought 0 jump-start the fed into action the fed typically does not wait until the recession to start cutting. right? they try to get ahead of it.

we've already seen that weakening. the sahm rule is telling us something is happening just maybe, you know, dialed um a little too high, or telling us the wrong signal again, higher unemployment rate is a problem people want to work, capable of working and just don't have the jobs that's a problem, losing out in output and productivity. it's an issue. the flavor is a little different this time, but that shouldn't breed complacency. >> how many people right now do you think are -- at the right age to be working, and find it just as advantageous not to be working? is that really something heard about it a lot when there were a lot of extraordinary stimulus and measures during the pandemic is there some residual to that i'm referencing a piece in the "wall street journal" earlier this week about the bottom

quintile and the type of government funded benefits are available versus years ago is that hurting things do you think, claudia >> to the extent that it was holding back people from being in the labor force and that's really questionable, but to the extent it was, that is far in the rearview mirror. those extraordinary pandemic support programs for the unemploymented are long since expired, and there's a lot of evidence that particularly lower-income families have, whatever that extra you know, padding they put in place from the pandemic relief, a lot of that, quote/unquote excess savings has been drawn down. frankly, if you look at employment, the participation rates's primates, working-aged adults, they are really at high levels people want to be working in a way that wasn't, you know, even true, you know, before the pandemic so that's a really positive sign

the most disconcerting metric on the labor market right now is the hiring rate. it is back to levels in 2014 when we had a 6% unemployment rate if you are looking for work right now, it is much harder than it is if you have a job and keeping a job. that's a problem we need those hiring rates up to get young adults and others who want to join the labor force back to work. >> did you do 50 or 25 >> absolutely 50 the inflation data on its own, we got two more months of good inflation data what the fed asked for nap on its own would have gotten us 25 next week as it should and a whole string of cuts after that. over 5% there over a year to fight inflation. that fight is won. they need to start getting out of the way and then what we've really learned since the july meeting the labor market has weakened, and even what we

thought we knew about the labor market last july has gotten weaker we've had revisions to months, annual revisions that look like they'll be pretty weak an aspect of recalibrating. information, clean it up do a 50 basis point cut and be ready to do more especially if powell wants to deliver on his we want no further weakening, no further cooling, they are going to have to, like, really move here because there is that cooling trend, it's well established and until interrupted we are going to continue to see payrolls drift down and unemployment drift up. >> very good claudia sahm of the sahm rule. is it -- among circles, not with us here on the set, but thanks for your time this morning appreciate t. thank you. meantime, the biden administration announcing new steps to can you remember what it's kaline calling abuse of shipments enters the u.s.

without paying import duties or processing tolls allows packages with relative little scrutiny. an explosion of this shipment linked to chinese online retail companies bike temu. allegedly used this exemption. millions of dollars worth of clothing and cheap household goods from chinese factories direct to american consumers etsy and wayfair up a bit on the back of it. a lot more coming up in a moment investors alan patricof will join us talk to him about where he stands in the debate over high high ly openai should be valued and what comes next in others in that space a look, before we get to a break a look at shares of boeing west coast factory workers striking overwhelmingly

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today appears to be end of the road for social media company x in san francisco reports have said that the company will close its headquarters in the city today friday the 13th. then twitter took over that current building in san francisco's mid-market neighborhood more than ten years ago. in july elon musk said he will move x's headquarters to texas. meantime, nasdaq sitting on a weekly gain nor than 5%. tech stock as big reason why for this including a bounceback from nvidia the company deal wig unprecedented demand for a.i. chip technology. also in the sector openai a whopping valuation raising funds $150 billion joining us on all of this,

long-time tech investors partner, co-founder, great to see you. curious your reaction to the idea of $150 billion valuation for openai whether that makes sense to you and ultimately what would have to happen to make that a reality? because it's currently considered not-for-profit. i imagine restructure it and those valuations only way to exit, i think, an ipo? >> it's a not-for-profit company with a for-profit subsidiary andrew, it's staggering. how does one contemplate a company worth $80 billion, seemed astronomical nine months ago and now talking about raising $150 billion supposedly burning $7 to $10 billion a year for computational pow jer that m pow j power? that means we're in a whole new world.

openai and chatgpt what they're capable of, it's a open-ended world. far be it for me to say what the value is openai second most valuable economy in the world today after bytedance. where is up too high i'm not a shareholder. it's not a world i specifically play in, but you've got a company that, i believe, $2 billion in revenues. pretty astronomical in itself, since it was at ago, so how high is up? >> well, that's the question, alan you've seen this -- you've seen various movies before, and with various endings, and i think there's a question in the secondary market whether people are going to buy into this by the way, there will be some big mutual funds and others who may try to get a piece of this before it goes public. would you, if you could? >> i wouldn't. that's not the game, andrew, that i want to play, and i think

it's -- i have seen this movie before, and as i've said previously, there's going to be a winner or two winners or several winners. there are going to be a lot of losers we've already seen some of the losers developing and merged into other companies, and i think it's a game for speculators, and you know, a lot of investors, lot of investment funds, a lot of organizations, feel they have to show their investors that they didn't miss the boat and therefore, they have to have that name on their portfolio list, and regardless what percentage they own, and at what price they're paying it they just want to paper their results with a hot name. on the other hand, i think it's hard for anyone to really analyze what the ultimate exit value is or -- >> alan, let me ask you a different question it's clear that nvidia, for

example, is a massive winner because people have to buy the chips and the chips are, you know, you can see them, they're physical we know about it we know how it works the question is, the valuations of some of the big tech companies, whether it's an amazon, microsoft, google, apple, they've also taken off on the back of this news, and the question is whether all of those valuations ultimately make sense. >> well, i think that a supplier, you know the old story, the picks and shovels are a safer place to be in to play this also, we have, in primetime, which is investing in obviously things that support anything for the ageless generation, every one of our companies is in some way or other trying to utilize the benefits of openai, and i think successfully it improves productivity and do everything else that will help

them ultimately make money so there are going to be a lot of people who are going to benefit from this technology the question is, in terms of the platform companies, which ones are going to prevail obviously, chatgpt has a name recognition, and you know, a person who gets a lot of ink in the beginning tends to be a front runner that's what happened with google, for example. and i think certainly, openai with chatgpt has an edge up because of that. >> to the extent there's other opportunities to invest in this space, how do you see it >> i would -- i think the chip companies are interesting. i don't think microsoft is going away i don't think intel is going away apple, i know, is playing a little bit of catch-up we saw the 16 announced this week, which is having a lot of features that incorporate openai into it or a.i., let's say, for sure so, i think that, you know, carefully analyzing whatever

company someone is looking at and trying to understand what benefits they can accrue from this new very exciting technology when you see what they can do now with math and with computational science and -- it's going to accelerate the introduction of so many new products and new services that i would just carefully analyze the companies you're looking at and saying, you know, which ones really can benefit from this and make -- and significantly increase their profit margins as a result of it and that's the way i would play it if i were specifically with a technology portfolio >> alan patricof, always good to see you and getting all your big ideas about this big moment we're living through thank you. >> thank you when we come back, try to get you up to speed on some top stock movers ahead of the opening bell on wall street. the futures, right now, as you

can see, are looking pretty good it's friday the 13th but we got the dow up 93. s&p, i think that will be four, five straight days we'll be right back. ordinary problems are for ordinary companies. we're here to fight the big, intimidating,

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a little more than half an hour to go until the opening bell on wall street. dom chu is back. he's got a look at some of the morning's top premarket movers hi, dom. >> i got you, becky. let's start off with checking on shares of boeing the dow component down roughly 3% or so right now this is after more than 30 how to work -- 30,000 workers in washington and oregon went on strike that work stoppage will stop production of some of the company's most popular and profitable aircraft, including that 737 max those shares have fallen by roughly 40% over the course of this year to date period amid a slew of incidents. moderna shares are down roughly 4% or so right now helped in part by downgrades over at jpmorgan and jeffries. jpmorgan going to an underweight rating from a prior neutral, jeffries going to a hold from a buy. analysts are generally saying that changes to moderna's revenue outlook and poor

feedback from the fda is weighing on that stock those shares are down about 33% year to date and we'll end on shares of arm holdings they're up just about 2% this morning, helped in part by raymond james analysts initiating coverage of the chip maker at an outperform or buy rating, giving a $160 price target to it, those analysts saying that arm is positioned to benefit from generative a.i. adoption and should see 20% revenue growth through the fiscal year 2026 you can see those shares up 2.5% for more on that and other top calls of the day, head over to cnbc.com/pro subscribers can get more access to details and analysis of those big calls. andrew, back over to you apple's new iphone is now available for preorder that happened at the top of the 8:00 a.m. hour the models will go on sale next friday, including the iphone 16, the 16 plus, the 16 pro, and the 16 pro max apple showed off the new devices at the launch event earlier this week

in focus for users, new a.i. capabilities called apple intelligence we should say the first set of features will be available to users in a free software update next month and some of the others will roll out in the future i can tell you that the sorkin boys want these phones we've had lots of discussions. >> i want one. >> you always say, wait until it's all worked out. >> this one, i think, there actually -- i might wait a little bit of time i got to figure it out i do want the headphones the new headphones >> really? >> yes i do i want -- you know, i want it all. i might wait a little. >> with the green slurpee weird drink. >> bye see you next week. >> have a good weekend ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. bulls trying to put a bow on this week's 3% s&p gain. best in about