cocoa is up. 82% rally behind them. by the way, that came as ghana had increased the salaries it was paying to the growers. well, wrapping up a good week we'll see you next week in washington in part of it, thanks for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm in for scoot wapner. this mac-or-break hour has stocks flying to highs it's coming together with reassuring economic readings in recent days to carry the indecisions to a fifth straight gain, could be the best week since november of 2023 could be the best since mid august we have 60 minutes to go in regulation s&p 500 within 1% of those record highs

nasdaq on pace for nearly a 6% weekly gain. this would broadband the fifth straight up day. russell 2000 a real standout treasury yields are slightly off their lowing of the week oil continuing to struggle with the disinflation story, but also weighing on global growth demand and gold running to yet another record high, as all the asset markets position for the fed next week. it takes us to our talk of the tape does the market have it right that the fed can go big with the first easing move? stocks are not far from all-time highs. would such a move be right on time or a bit too late let's can wharton business

school professor jeremy siegel i want you to listen to what john paulson said in a rare interview this morning about what he thinking the fed should do. >> personally, i think the fed is a little behind the curve rates are 5.25-plus, and inflation is down to the 2.5% rate, so we have almost 3% real interest i think they have seen enough data that they can start bringing rates down, and more aggressive would be better i would be for a 50 base-point cut rather than 25. >> professor, what is your take on that and the fed's calculation? >> i agree 100%, but i don't think they will. i think it will have to be a really bad retail sales report early next week for them to do 50 i agree, as you know, i've been

for these aggressive cuts, but the deliberateness of jay powell is 25 basis points you know, mike, one interesting thing, it is almost incredible, the fed funds futures that reflects the june meeting next year, june 2025, is now trading at 3%. >> yeah. >> i mean, that is actually more than nine cuts under the current level. i think there's risk premium in there. i've done taking out some of that risk premium, so i estimate that seven cuts. what is interesting about that, is there are exactly seven more meetings between next week and the june meeting of 2025 so, actually a 25 basis-point cut in each and every meeting would actually, you know, bring

us down to around 3 1/2, 3 3/4 i've said that's where the funds rate should be >> what's interesting about all of that is, one, as you say, the market will sometimes over-extrapolate or build in a what-if premium into the fed funds future the other piece of it, and this is in the last day or two, where you had this "wall street journal" article and "f.t." article lean to get that point, where they could see the case for a half percentage point move last week. loretta mester has said as much as bill dudley it seemed that the market was willing to trade higher on that, in part because it seemed to lay the groundwork for half a point not being in response, in other

words, we could have it all. does that make any sense >> yeah, it does, but i know loretto very well, um, notice that phrase "could" a case could be made. she was quite hawkish during those early phases of fed increases, so that's certainly that makes news, but i think there's a lot of could be mading i think austan goolsbee is definitely making the case of let's be more aggressive there would be a side on that, but i don't think the ppi and cpi were just that good enough again, it would have been to a really horrible report don't forget, the real indicators are holding in at a moderate economic. i say, let's get down to where we should be as fast as possible, but the real -- but i

what i think the market is saying, you know what this it may be a few months longer before we get to where we have to be, but by the middle of next year, you know, we're 3.5% fed funds rate, i'm good with that. >> in other words, we could still live in a world where good economic news would be good for the market whether we get it? we peaked in mid july for the s&p 500. some of the that was the ai plays, some of air coming out. all of them seem to be based on weaker than expected labor indicators, and the idea that it was a hard landing so it feels like we won't be free of that psychological swing for a while, even if the fed, you know, gets moving. >> that's really why those fed funds futures, although they're extremely low, are really hedging that bet they know that if bad news comes

in, the fed will start lowering by 50, maybe 75, and i want to take a position in that. so, really the reason why -- all of us with probabilities that says 50, 40% rather than 60% of this rate cut. the truth of the matter is fed funds futures are biased downward, biased toward more cuts, because people hold them, because if bad news does come, they'll score big on those contracts. that's why what looks like nine cuts between now and next june is really seven, but that's an interesting figure, given that's one quarter cut per meeting. >> we know that outside of a couple months ahead of time, the futures market doesn't have any crystal ball we were priced for several cuts by the first half of this year, you know, ten months ago i think all of that is in the

mix. the other question is where the stock market stands independent of all of that earnings, they have come through fine, though we're still closing to 25 times earnings -- so i wonder if we have already taken credits for the soft landing that still seems plausible >> i think so. you know, very honestly, you know, even at the beginning of this year, you remember at the beginning of this year, you know, we could have 8 to 12, 15%. i didn't think we would get it in the first half. so there may be a bit of a front running, you know, you don't want to be short, you know, in a situation where the fed is lowering rates, but you are starting out from a position where it's unlikely that the market will rally sharply. as you pointed out, mike, take a look at the small stocks today they started a rally and then

fizzled, now they're saying hey, maybe the time is there. they are the ones that are the most hurt by these high fed funds rates. they don't have as much long-term, they certainly dot have as much equity at high price, therefore low cost, as the big caps do, so if we start lowering rates aggressively, i mean, the case can be made finally for the small caps and the value stocks themselves. >> that does seem to be the playbook that is getting enacted, at least tentative right now. professor stay with us, let's bring in our contributors. welcome to you both. ed, we would love your take on this the field position of the stock market, we've had our seasonal pullbacks, at least part of them we're still up around the highs, but you have done some work

about what's the favorable kind of fed easing cycle for stocks, and what's perhaps more worrisome for the pace how does a 50 base-point move, if we were to get one, fit into those scenarios? >> it is market tends to do better when the fed moves slower when the fed movers quickly, they have made a mistake and chasing their tail thinking about 2007, 2008, 2001, versus say, 1998, 1985, because the economy held in there. so, if the fed does go 50 here, they're gonna have to be very careful with how they communicate to the markets if the decision is we're going to cut quickly to get to a still positive real fed funds rate, but lower than we are now and then pause, that's a very

different message. that could still fit into the slow easing ping cycle. >> steph, how does this build into your thinking here? there's been anxiety about the consumers. visa said things had perked up recently so how are you putting it together >> i think you have to put all of it together it's a pretty good picture we're growing at about 2%, 2.5%. commodity costs are down gasoline prices are down 15% year over year that's favorable for corporations, for people, individuals, and at the end of the day, it's what about the companies are saying a a realtime basis it's pretty good, mike

goldman sachs had their conference on technology, and nvidia kind of started the whole event with a bang, really, then it was broadcom, and oracle, and then we also it the barclays financial services conference. you mentioned visa you had mixed commentary from jpmorgan goldman sachs, ally, got that, but you had brit good data from truist, bank of ame america, morgan stanley, and all of them said the consumer is in good shape that's 70% of our economy. i think consumer is in good shape. if you listen to the banks, the retailers, and in retailers, there's haves and have-nots, and the haves are winning, supporting, showing that the consumer is doing okay. >> ed, i would also wonder how this attempt at a rotation is playing into your view as well

alongside this hard/soft landing debate and what does it mean we've had this idea we're transitioning from a megacap growth-led into -- whether that means more volatility, and maybe a retrenchment, or maybe it means the rest of the tape can pick up the slack. what are you seeing in terms of the evidence in the market behavior itself? >> there does seem to be rotation going on, and the fed in the matt rho view, but also the reality situation, a lot of them, it's decelerating fairly rapidly. historically, the small caps have outperformed when the fed has started to cut rates, especially in the slow, non-recessionary fed easing cycles, so you expect kind of the junk stocks dodd well. it's a good combination, the economy is all right, but mid

caps are interesting to us here, because it kind of got swept up in some of the challenges, but there's a lot higher quality, much fewer companies are unprofitable, unlike the russell 2 2000, we also have a better pay ratio p/e to growth rate so if you're trying to find the right balance and rotating out of the megacaps, look at mid caps they should offer benefits >> makes sense professor siegle, i guess the piece of this coming into the week, there were some of these sort of expected nodes of potential volatility, but also the presidential debate, you know, we have traded through that, maybe we are here within two months of a presidential

election we know the historical report is sort of mixed, except to say that usually if the market is up, the incumbent party has tended to win, but are you paying any attention to that is it decisive or a swing factor for the market >> it is a factor, you know, in the market, very definitely. but it's sort of interesting, even with the debate that most people believe the economy will do well, it didn't really have a negative impact on the s&p that being said, we all know that december 31st of next year, there will be a huge renegotiation of all taxes, trump tax cuts, everything, um, and, um, you know, i actually think the markets want us with the government they want to go easy, let both sides weigh in and not have one

group sweep one way over the other. probably as what government does likely with such a close election i don't think it's disturbing the market certainly at this point. >> certainly not at the index low, at least not yet. steph, i want to get your sense of this recent run of somewhat defensive stock outperformance that we've got it's one of the things folks have been watching, to saying maybe we should start getting worried about the economy. yeah, they're yield sensitive, but i wonder if you see a change in the complexion of the market. >> yeah, i don't think you want to be defensive. i do think there's a distinction, though, mike, between staples and utilities. broth of them are interest rate sensitive, of course, i agree. but playing utilities for the power grid electrification

theme, as well as the interest rate side of things. staples, i think they're overbought i don't know why you said to own them, except commodity costs, inflation coming down will help their margins. but they're not cheap. i much proffer the cyclical stocks when the fed starts to ease, they're going to industry to stimulate the economy, and it's already on sound fitting, and that -- >> looks like we lost steph, though i like to point out when it comes to the consumer staples, costco and walmart have been some of the top leaders there. ed, i just want you to weigh in here as we wrap things up. defensively if the market has passed the seasonal test we were all expecting? people westbound point out the second half of september sometimes gets rough, but can we

make a judgment on that? >> you're right. if you want to dive it up, the second half the september is the weakest two-week pertiod of the year if you want to look at investor sentiment, short-term sentiment has gotten fairly pessimistic. i wouldn't be surprised if a lot of traders had gotten past some of the seasonal headwinds, but in the meantime sentiment, it hasn't gotten down there so much once we get past the news of next week, i wouldn't be surprised to have more choppiness before the true end of the year rally. >> finally, professor, i know you said you still think the fed might settle on 25 basis points. it seems whatever he decides is the right answer, he'll have enough votes behind that,

perhaps. do you think we're setting ourselves up for a bit of the sell the news. it feels like if things are as they stand right now, maybe sound stingy don't forgot, this is a big quarterly meeting. we'll have a dot plot to contend with, the projections, and, of course, the news conference. how he spins it and what the s.e.p. projections are will be a big part of it, whether it's 25 or 50. we'll listen closely if he says i'm willing to go 50 if i see the data, you know, deteriorate, but so far i see good data here, i'm willing to go 25, that will be reassuring to the market. >> he'll absolutely say the dot plot isn't a forecast, but we'll treat it as something worth combing over, as we always do. thank you all for the time today. over to seema mody for the

biggest themes moving into the close. >> shares of rh are on track for the best day since march 2020. soaring after posting stronger than expected second quarter results. in a her to investors, gar yes friedman said demand accelerated into the third quarter he expects that to continue into 2025 the potential rate cuts are expected to help there, and nor fox southern admitting that it's been in the news for all the wrong reasons. mark george spoke at the laguna conference, say it's a speed bump, and they're truly on track for the third quarter. they fired the ceo after determining he was involved in an inappropriate workplace relationship mike >> seema, thanks we are just getting started here up next, iphone 16 plea orders officially opened today. we'll hear from erik woodring from morgan stanley how he's

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pre-orders for the iphone 16 beginning today, with many expecting apple intelligence to drive a multi-year device upgrade cycle. erik woodring things it could be the biggest effort for apple he joins me now. apple shares have lagged a bit does that mean it was the sell the news response, or did the market-foot not find anything in the presentation to get greater conviction in the strength of the upgrade cycle? >> thank you for having me, mike i think we are entering a seasonal period of relative performance for apple. it's historically a sell the

news event it historically does outperform into the event i wouldn't interpret the market behavior over these last few days as being all that appear normal relative to history, but i think it's representative of the reaction that investors have to what was announced on month, which is still a relatively measured slow and staggered roll-out of what is the key feature this year, which is the apple intelligence platform. >> what would represent a second quarter or upside surprise of initial orders coming through for you? >> sure. the first few days are very noisy. it's a lot of days with pre-orders over the weekend, lead times which, i would remind everybody are dictated by both supply and demand, and lead times are important on a per model basis. lead times for one individual model does not dictate a cycle

it dictates how well that specific model is performing there will be a lot of noise over the next week, as we go from the preorder date today to the date of availability, which is a week from today it's my job to dissect that noise and maintain a fairly clear narrative. what i'm looking for is the directionality of lead times day one lead times are a bit lower. what matters to me is how that lead time trends from here does it go up? by how much? how does it look relative to history? and importantly, how does it look across all four models. i don't want to focus on one specific model, because apple will ship over units over 13 different models that's really what i'm focused on, let's call it, the next seven days. >> the apple intelligence

features, do you feel if that would create any sense of urgency, or is this a matter of this would be one fewer reason for me to not upgrade, because at least it will be ready for whatever comes down the pike i wonder how it's going to be paid, so to speak, for ai capabilities, is it about a stronger hardware cycle or other ways >> first and foremost, it will be about a hardware cycle. that represents 75% of total revenue, about 60% of total gross profit dollars it starts with hardware. we have made the argument several times there's a multi-year device upgrade in front of us. that is kind of, a, number one what we think is important, but services has to be part of this conversation, services being 74% gross margin growing double digits this would be seemingly

incremental to what we see the current run rate of service in meaning if apple can charge for a high-end subscription as much as, that becoming incremental. if apple intelligence is indeed the platform we think it can become over time, that can become a significant driver of incremental services revenue the potential, a reason to charge for higher prices for first-party applications, and services that apple sells. today there's a number of different areas where services can be monetized, and just given how high margin they are, and this would be incremental, i don't think we should leave services out this conversation it's just the initial read through will come there on the product side.

it's likely a belief in the technology that openai is rolling out. there's a reason that apple has partnered with openai, first and foremost, to integrate chatgpt into the platform. maybe it's a checkmark in terms of to this kind of hybrid approach >> all right we'll see how it playing in coming days. erik, thanks very much >> thanks very much. up next, how we're navigating this tech, and the volatility in the months ahead and you can catch us on our "closing bell" podcast neither did you exactly exactly exactly

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welcome back, the tech sector is leading the comeback this week. broadcom, super micro and nvidia here to talk with us, is ankur crawford, joining me here at post 9 we've a bit of a reset.

has it caused you to rethink thing? >> not really. if you believe in the idea that ai at some point, whether it's three, four, five years out, will provide us with superhuman intelligence, all of the cap ex being spent is beyond what i think anyone that is contemplated obviously, when it consults for three months how are you mentally modeling it out

>> i think there's many ways the slope can change in any given year it was the first time that they haven't gone up for nvidia the goldman sachs conference, jensen gets on the stage and talks about how capacity has to grow in 2025, but also has to grow in 2026 that basically marked the bottom of the stock 25 is not peak cap ex.

we think 25, 26, 27, potentially 28 will be big cap ex years. >> you know, it was interesting to hear where he had some impatience of the question how will we get paid >> he said, basically everything we do will be built around the ai technologies, which is interesting to me, except it goes back to the idea that technology always gets better, faster and cheaper is it just an accelerated phase of it? >> we have to have like an hour to have though discussion. >> i know. >> but in a necessarily she -- this would sound "terminator-esque" but if you have a co-worker with intelligence equivalent to you, and can be your foil and do

everything you need it to do and then some, how much would you pay for that co-worker if microsoft, for example, opens up that opportunity how much are you willing to pay for that co-worker? so when it pullet it in that context, the big picture is it's a complete transformation of the technology and how we use it.

>> i do know that you -- in sort of. tell me about app loven. >> they're going into e-commerce so instead of serving you up a game, they'll serve you up a product, and are able to monetize their inventory even better interesting because all of that cost structure a already embedded so they get almost 100% fall-through massively cash flow

generative the street has $6 earnings in 2026, and i think the stock is at 111 today we think those numbers are too low. they generate massive amounts of cash. >> and it's a real u-turn from the ipo it was kind of a different business, and we just met with the ceo also had the wherewithal to understand he had to pivot his business, and he's pivoting it again. yeah, we love it. >> $37 million market cap. ankur, great to have you seema is standing by with more news. >> mike, have you ever had a problem with an uber driver? how about an uber that has no

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airlines have been investing in faster in-flight wi-fi united is slightly higher, with the news currently provided wi-fi for united tanking on the news uber will team up with waymo. uber's ceo telling cnbc today people are getting more used to the idea of driverless cars. >> austin and atlanta, i hope the technology is good in traffic. it will be a good test in those two markets. appreciate it, seema. we're keeping eyes on shares of u.s. steel. >> michael, u.s. steel adding about 3.5% as the white house is reportedly delay a decision on whether to block the acquisition by nippon steel, according to

"the washington post." it comes as concerns grow about the economic fallout, could the deal fall apart. according to the report, citing three people familiar. it's the latest twist in the fight for u.s. steel future. presidential hopefuls trump and harris have also spoken out about the proposed acquisition for its part, u.s. steel has said thousands of jobs will be at risk if the deal falls through and will raise serious questions about the company remaining in pittsburgh. the stock is up about 15% for the week, but it's still below where it traded prior to december's nippon announcement. >> mike, another chapter pippa, tnkha you. still to come, shares of pde dropping, and we'll have the details coming up.

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welcome back we're getting news on sam bankman-fried. mackenzie has that for us. >> he's filed an appeal of his guilty verdict lawyers say the judgment should be reversed, asking for a new trial in front of a different judge. bankman-fried said his trial wasn't fair and there was a rush to judgment. his lawyers says it was a

sentence first/verdict afterwards scenario, claiming that the assertion he stole billions of customer money has since been proved wrong. part of that narrative coming from the fact that the bankruptcy is making customers whole. >> it's an amazing turn of circumstances. up next, boeing shares are sinking after factory workers went on strike earlier today what is at stake for that stock ahead. ahead. thasom peterff has established a try isrecord of 4:00 p.m. eastern. pgim investments. shaping tomorrow, today.

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we are now in the "closing bell" market zone, boeing workers going on strike. phil lebeau has more, and low-value shipments that could mean for key e-commerce players, and phil, boeing trading off about 3.5% set us up with this labor news >> reporter: the shares are trading down, because there's genuine concern about the financial impact of this strike. we're outside the 737 max plant in renton. workers started striking at midnight last night. 90% of the machinists who voted, voted to strike. they overwhelmingly rejected the contract agreement, as well as with boeing's leadership the cfo for boeing said for now,

it's curving cash. they warned about an extended strike, writing that it could have a -- increases the risk of a downgrade. because of that it wants -- out with a note, that he was in the plant, talking with machinists, asking them to vote for the contract the pressure is on him as well as the union leadership to see if they can get together and hammer out a revised deal. mike, back to you. >> phil, obviously the chance of a credit downgrade is pretty significant.

there's a lot of debt on boeing's books i wonder how that playing into this negotiation sometimes management wants to go to workers and say, listen, things aren't great here in terms of our finances. we have to find some accomm accommodation. >> reporter: you want to know what i heard from workers, whenever i brought that up not the credit rating, but the health of the company not being that good, all of them said the same thing, we didn't create this problem this was a problem created by management you can quibble with that and say, look, there's issues in terms of the rank and file and quality control and the workmanship that's been done or not been done with certain aircraft as a result, they say we need more than 25%, regardless of the condition of the company, we need more than 25% over the next four years. >> well, this will get strung out at least for a while phil, thank you very much. megan, e-commerce stocks

moving quite a bit on this proposal. >> pairs of ppd holding because of move by biden, to make temu and -- what is known as the de minimis threshold, allowing ships to be imported to the u.s. duty-free and less inspection, but because they ship directly from to their consumers, they've avoided those taxes. wayfair and etsy both will benefit from the more level playing field. >> that shows how sensitive their business model is to the lower costs for stuff coming in.

megan, thank you anjelica, vaccine makers on the move as well. >> moderna having another bad day, the company say it's focusing on the new vote kid and flu shot and the rsv there's not much excitement about the opportunities, and the big disappointment is moderna's cancer vaccine moderna this week say fda is not supportive of its plan, so it probably won't be, rbc cutting the price target, believing in the long-term opportunities, but concerned short term novavax is up about 13%, say the covid booster now available at major farm sits, but we still need to see how competitive they will be. >> anjelica, how big do we they

can the vaccination booster season will be >> last year 20% of adults got the booster. the big question is whether we'll see more people get it, or whether we won't remember, there's been a big summer surge with a lot of people having just gotten covid, so it's not clear if they want to go back and get another covid shot the companies will say think they people will >> of course, we'll absolutely see. anjelica, thanks very much one minute until the close, as we head for five straight up days in the s&p 500, and also for a 4% weekly gain the s&p, up more than half a percent today. it's the underperformer among the inning detections. dow is up, and the russell 2000, up 2.5%, all of this building from this dovish chatter, about the half percentage point instead of a quarter point by

the fed next week. and we got some firmer economic indi indicators, but we do have three trading days until the fed meeting, a very broad rally today, 85% [ bell ringing ] that will do it for "closing bell." we send it to "overtime" with jon fortt. that bell marks the end of regulation stocks are rallying again today ahead of next week's fed decision the nasdaq and s&p 500 notchic five positive sessions in a row, the russell 2000 jumping another 2% welcome to "overtime." morgan brennan is off today. we have a big