stewart, jason thomas, will christien, i'm jason weigandt. we say congrats to hunter lawrence and tell you, please tune in next saturday night when we crown smx world champions in las vegas. ♪ ♪ welcome to "street signs" eve every everyone. i'm silvia amaro and here are your headlines. we are waiting for the first rate cut in over four years with the markets split on how deep it will go. china's economy falters extending a slowdown in

industrial activity and real estate prices as pressure grows on authorities to ramp up spending and stimulate demand. and india sustained growth up 8% according to the reserve bank governor. he tells cnbc there are still headwinds for rates and inflation. >> it's not so much how inflation is now. we have to look at for the next six months to one year, what is the outlook on inflation. and republican nominee donald trump is safe after what the fbi is describing as an attempted assassination until americans go to the polls. very good morning, everyone. i hope you had a lovely weekend. we start today's show looking at the equity session. european equities have been

trading just over an hour. indeed, when you think about what's at stake this week, no doubt, all eyes are on that fed decision on wednesday. at this stage, when you think about what markets are pricing in, there's a 59% chance we are going to get a 50-basis point cut by the fed on wednesday. we shall find out. it is also a heavy week on monetary policy when you think about the bank of england meeting on thursday and the bank of japan due to make decisions on friday. when you have that background in mind, looking at the stoxx 600 at this stage, it is trading above the flat line. we are seeing a bit of pressure in european equities this morning with investors really taking a cautious approach amid all of the rate decisions. let me show you how the individual bourses are trading so far. the ftse 100 is trading above the flat line.

the bank of england on thursday is expected to keep rates unchanged, on hold. we will see what communication we get from the central bank because investors are still pricing in further rate cuts between now and the end of the year. any sort of communication of how the bank of kof england is look at the economy with employment, growth or inflation will be very important to understand by how much the bank of england might still move before the end of the year. looking at other bourses in europe, the dax down .2%. let me take you to the different sectors to understand the corporate dynamics at this stage into monday's session. we have healthcare at the top. the best performing sector at the moment by almost .50%. we are seeing a bit of momentum at this stage for more defensive parts of the market. indeed, as i told you earlier, with investors at this stage taking a cautious approach as we

approach all of these rate decisions, we are seeing upside for household goods and retail up by .3%. we will discuss some of the dynamics within retail later on in the show. let me take you as well to the worst performing sectors at this stage. it is a very important part of the market to monitor at this stage. when you think about technology, it stratrading lower by .3%. we are looking at autos down similar .3%. worth noting we are approaching a moment when the eu is expected to vote on tariffs and chinese evs. we will see how the story turns out for the ultimate numbers for the new tariffs. i want to take you to basic resources at this stage down .7% after some very weak chinese data. we will get into in judgmst a

mo moment. we are dealings with lower numbers in asia at this moment. as we approach and looking at the equity session here in europe, we are dealing with weaker volumes from asia. i also want to take you to this data from china although the stock market was closed. it is important to monitor the economic data. the industrial output growth slowed missing expectations. when you think about retail sales, they grew less than expected in the month while house prices fell 5% on the year. sam filed this report. >> reporter: not good in news from the economic data out of china. manufacturing and consumption and home prices slowing raising bits for more stimulus. new home prices fell at the fastest pace in over nine years.

industrial output slowed to a nine-month year and others stuck in the 2% range. fixed assets missed estimates. properties were the drag there and infrastructure growth slowed despite ramped up government bond issuance. new bank ending expanded below expectations and credit growth also slowed. the data highlights short-term and long-term challenges for policymaker was sluggish th domestic demand. goldman and citi revised the gdp growth forecast to 4.7% highlighting the concerns about the demand side. the forecasts are now consistent with the bearish folks at nomura. they recommend this could take place in the coming weeks. in the meantime, there are growing expectations for a rrr cut which the pboc says has room to do and economists are pe

pencilling in further cuts down the road given the rate cutting cycle should give the chinesela. chinese market will open on wednesday and turn to the pboc rate decision on friday. in singapore, sam vadas, cnbc business news. >> that's the latest from china. i want to take you to the big theme this week. that's central banks because we are going to hear from the fed, the bank of england and bank of japan and norges bacnk. they are all set to report their policy decisions this week. the fed rate decision and markets are now pricing in a 60% chance of a bumper 50-basis point cut amid concerned concerns amid the labor market. wall street is split with citi and jpmorgan economists backing a 50-basis point move lower.

now the bank of england is expected to keep rates on hold when it meets on thursday. although markets see an over30% chance of a cut. the central bank will not release fresh economic forecast this week with those due in the next meeting in november, but we will have fresh information data head of the decision. andrew bailey sounded cautious in jackson hole. in terms of the norges bank, it is set to report on thursday. it is all certain to keep the rates on hold and adding to inflation concerns. when the central bank reported in suggest, the governor said the rates will be kept at the current level for some time ahead. the bank of japan is expected to hold steady after its rate hike last month. global markets will remember that well. the central bank is expected to raise rates one more time before the end of the year.

officials have stressed that the bank of japan's approach to rate hikes will be cautious as it assesses the impact of its policy decisions on the economy. to discuss all of this in detail, we have richard kelly, head of global strategy at td securities. good morning, richard. good to see you. >> good morning. >> i would like to start our conversation looking at the fed because i'm still surprised when i look at the projections and at the moment, a 59% chance of a 50-basis point caut camp on wednesday. why? >> the labor market is decelerating, but not falling off the cliff. the fed had ample chances to communicate if they wanted to make that decision. we put the odds, call it 40% chance they do. i don't think this is a slam dunk in either direction. if they clearly wanted to do

that, they would have communicated it. what happens on tuesday and wednesday and can they talk themselves in starting with a faster cut or starting slower or giving a dovish communication of how to ease faster in the future. that is the tactic they will take. >> is this increased probably of a 50-basis point cut putting pressure on the fed to go beyond what he wants to do? >> i think it is something they take in, but i don't think any central bank takes that pressure from the market. certainly if it was 100% priced in, there would be a reason for that. i think there is still plenty of time as everyone settles in from the weekend. it will be extremely close. this is a fed meeting where every point will have something from the market to digest. the rate of the market or the statement or the dots or communication. all of it will move the markets this week. >> what do you think is the most likely message from the fed this week in terms of what to expect between now and the end of the year because if we think about -- put aside the debate of

a 25 or 50 cut this week, there is a strong expectation that the fed will move heavily in bringing down rates before the end of the year. what sort of message can we get from the fed in what to expect next? >> i think it is dovish. i think the market is priced for 50 in the next three meetings, including this week. that seems like a reasonable risk. if we get a 25, our expectation is the dots can be down 50 and next year down 100 points. the communication about inflation is it is back to neutral. the communication about the labor market is past neutral. all of that sets up the fed to deliver a communication that 25 at every meeting is probably your best case. if you think inflation and the labor market are easing faster, that means 50 is priced in there. a much more powerful message for the fed to deliver in the markets. it is not what do we do in this

next meeting, but over the next year and a half. >> what is the catalyst between now and the end of the year with the fed? we have to look at the political scene and the election in early november, but also have the economic data with the jobs report in october. what do you think is the key moment to understand how big the fed can go in term of rate cuts? >> i think there is little difference in how central b bankers look at this. there is little difference between 25 and 50 points now. the fed can start the session and we are starting to ease. we will have further data and they can set it there and say as long as the data comes in as expected, we will consider it a close call or something like that which lets the market say we are as expected, and we will ease more than 25. now the market is able to do that. i think the risk or the other

side is if the fed is really cautious, they aren't certain about inflation and they don't think the labor market is easing that fast, they don't give that message and you have a dramatic move and it pushed higher. now the market tightens up and what that liquidity looks like and makes the data a bit worse as we go through the engineers sort of few hours. >> looking at the u.s. election, the polls suggest this is a tight race. how can one trade around the u.s. election with the monetary policy when it can go either way? >> that's the coin flip. you are hedging your risks. unless you have a perfect crystal ball, you don't know which way the election will go. it is a different economic forecast and profile depending which way that goes. if you are a market participant and the fed, you are doing what is appropriate. i think that decision of 25 or

50 will have nothing to do with who seems to have won that election, but where is the data right now? we will have a december meeting. based on the data has nothing to do with that. as you get into q1, that's where you have the administration coming in and the platform at this point in terms aggressive tightening up the borders and tariffs is inflationary. that is something that will potentially feed into the fed's narrative, although that pace of easing. it is appropriate for them to be easing there. >> just to understand we are likely to see changes in monetary policy from the u.s. election at least until the start of the new year. >> you have to have that policy in place. >> just tell us what are you thinking with the implications for the dollar given the potential dovish approach from the fed. what are we looking at in terms

of where the level of dollar is sitting? >> you still have rates moving lower and that makes it difficult for the dollar to rally. i think you are the at stage where you accumulate long positions in the dollar. on the risk-reward for the elections, the dollar starts to look attractive as a buy. >> ri6chard, we will have more o talk about in a moment. for now, i have to take a break. coming up, berlin weighs in on the unicredit on the commerzbank. we'll discuss more after this break.

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welcome back to "street signs." let's look at what's happening in the corporate world. unicredit ceo thsays that the merger could create opportunities. he could create savings if the bank was to pursue the takeover of the german lender.

if you look at some of the performance in the shares, it has been a remarkable story. germany representatives have held talks after the italian lender took a stake in commerzbank according to reuters. the financial times is reporting that german officials were not briefed in advance of unic unicredit's stake in commerzbank. authorities would take a, quote, very close look at any deal between unicredit and commerzbank with any takeover likely to face a regulatory scrutiny. look at this chart. it is remarkable how much the share price has moved for commerzbank since last week. shares have moved 20%. this has been a key move.

the question is what is the outlook here and what is going to happen next? will we see further consolidation in the banking sector in europe? we'll find out. meanwhile, the rexel board has rejected a takeover bid from qxo which would have valued the firm up to 28 euro and 40 per share. that is above the friday closing price with a market cap of 6.8 billion euro. the bid significantly under values the firm and doesn't reflect the value creation potential. elsewhere, the eu is looking to raise tariffs on evs. the bloc could raise ev tariffs to more than 35% on top of the existing 10% car import duty. of course, that continues to have implications of how some of the european auto names are also trading. i want to take you to the

data from china this morning. the output growth slows missing expectations. that is having ramifications of the mining stocks thus far. you see significant pressure on the screen this morning with these names. anglo and rio tinto among the names. it is likely to be an interesting session on wall street this week. we have u.s. futures suggests a possiblitive start to the tradi session over there. in fact, when you look at what we had at the end of last week, the s&p posted gains of more than 4%. the nasdaq gains by more than 5%. so very strong week to date performances last we're ek froml street. let's see what happens when we await the decision from the fed. we still have richard kelly with us. richard, i would like to look at other central banks, too.

we cannot just look at what the fed is doing. the bank of england here and that expectation is they will not move rates. what is the outlook between now and the end of the year? by how much will they be in a position to cut now the fed is also similarly in the position to do the same? >> i think the bank of england is still being cautious. that is appropriate. you will have a 7-2 vote in terms of keeping rates unchanged here. i think you are still getting another cut by the end of the year. the difference is if you look at the uk right now, private sector pay and services inflation are still extremely elevated. they are coming down only gradually. what you have the benefit of inflation is mostly in energy price story coming through. there is still structural fl inflation and they don't start to ease and have to backtrack too soon. that is leaving them slower than the fed at this point. >> what about europe? we had the ecb decision last

week announcing another rate cut and significant from that point. when i was reading your notes, you suggest the euro is still promising of current levels. perhaps we can bring up the euro-dollar at this stage. >> i think the ecb is strong in another one we're going quarterly at 25s. no question about it. no push back at the meeting. you can juxtapose that with the fed and the market is pricing in more. that is giving you a currency differential that is lifting it and mostly of increased fed easing expectations. at some point, you fully priced in the fed. if things continue to narrow and the ecb has more to gain and catch up and increase that pace either going every meeting or going with 50s here and there, that gives you the risk-reward before the equity performance

where there is probably a greater ability of the u.s. equity performance next year regardless of who wins the election. if the fed is easing more, all these things start to say euro is probably looking a bit dovish. especially between now with the risk premium with the u.s. election, you move away from the euro. >> the euro-dollar at this stage is 1.11. what is the rfk heisk here acro europe? when you think about the protectionist tones we are getting from europe which is different from all these years, potential tariffs on chinese evs and other sectors, too, what is the outlook for the euro-u.s. dollar? >> it is all about prote

protectionism. if you look at the plans in the u.s., they are more aggressive. most of what you are getting at in europe, look at the evs. a lot of the other areas is reaction reactionary to other tariffs coming in. that is not a driver on the european sentiment as cmh or the dollar. >> i like to get your thoughts on what we heard from the bank of canada over the weekend. he suggested we could switch to the 50-basis point moves depending on growth. my question is not what the bank of canada wants to do, but are we in a new fphase where we set aside the inflation data, but rather the growth and employment figures that are dominating how we are going to be seeing central banks making decisions ult ultimately? >> inflation was about to open

the gate to start to cut and then the growth is the size of the cuts once you get there. inflation is where we need to be to start easing. it really doesn't drive anything else at this point. inflation will fall if growth continues to fall. now growth is the leading indicator. central banks are pivoting there. you can take the bank of canada governor and they are opening the door. if the data is worse, we will ease fatster. we all know that. it shows their mindset is shifting. >> it is an obvious point and telling the markets we are comfortable doing so. finally, we talked about all of the central banks. ult ultimately, what does this all mean between now and the end of the year? >> we are still looking at rally and buying duration. you are not fully priced is still there.

you are into curve steepeners. bun bund bunds have been the reluctant rally. overall, it is buying duration and curve steepeners. >> thank you very much for your time. that was richard kelly from td securities. coming up on the show, the indian central bank governor tells cnbc the country can expect growth of 8% in the coming years. we will bring you that exclusive interview after this break.

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welcome back to "street signs" everyone on this monday morning. i'm silvia amaro and here are your headlines. european equities start on a cautious note as central banks hold their breath after they await the first rate cut by the

fed in over four years. market stocks leading the declines as the chinese economy slows down and pressure glow grn authorities. india can sustain growth up to 8% according to the reserve bank governor. he tells cnbc exclusively there are still headwinds for inflation. >> it is not so much the inflation now, but we have to look at the next six months to run year the outlook on inflation. and republican nominee donald trump is safe after what the fbi is describing as an attempted assassination with just 50 days until americans go to the polls. welcome back to the show. let's look at india. the central bank will not be influenced by how much the fed

cuts rates at this week's meeting according to the governor himself. the rbi governor shaktikanta das in the interview with cnbc. our very own tanvir, highlights the main points of the exclusive conversation. >> reporter: thank you very much, silvia. thanks for having me on the show. the key rye height was the fact he projected the long term growth was anywhere from 7.5% to 8%. remind you, this is a more bullish projection that what the governor has on this financial year of 5.25%. they have a financial year from march to march. they don't follow the calendar year. as far as the 25 is concerned, you are looking at growth of 7.2%. he did not put a timeline to it.

he did not specify how many years, but the medium term, he would look at growth at 7.5 to 8%. 7.5 being conservative and 8% optimistic. a good round for india. inflation has been under check and pretty much come back into the rbs comfort zone. he is much watching closely wha happens with food inflation because that has been elevated. you are looking at vegetable prices in india going up. he wants to see inflation down durably for a long period of time. he is talking about six months to a year. what does that mean for the rbs rate decision? they are having their multiple as i policy meeting with the decision from the fed on when they get

out of the gate with 25 or 50 basis points. when i asked the governor the same question on how would, you know, the rbi react to the fed rate decision, he said the fed doesn't have influence on our rate thinking or and policy decision. it's more the internal, the domestic fundamentals that drive our position on rates. he did highlight the fact that maybe, just maybe, reading between the relines, the only policy meeting may be too early to say the rbi -- i keep saying the fed -- this is what he told me as far as his rate policy is concerned. >> we maintained our status quo with the rate cycle so far. after our rates increase to 6.5 for the last two years or so, we maintained status quo with regard to the rates and with regard to the monetary policy stance.

the latest inflation print for august has come out. next monetary policy meeting will be held in the first week of october. the monetary policy will take a decision. having said that, let me say that we have to really see how the outlook is. it is not a question in the current context in the, you know, like in july the inflation came to about 3.6, the revised number now. 3.6 and august has come at 3.7. so, it's not just how the inflation is now. we have to look at the next six months to one year what is the outlook on inflation. therefore, i would like to sort of step back and look at more carefully what is the future outlook of inflation and growth and based on that, we will make a decision. >> and we talk about inflation outlook and growth outlook for the long term, but i want to

understand from you as we speak, are you looking at the rate cut and will that happen in the october meeting in. >> no, i can't say that. the external members will be new because the current members there with the four-year stint, have ended. there are three new members in the mpc. we will discuss and decide in the mpc. so as far as growth inflation dynamics, one, the growth momentum continues to be good. india's growth story is in tact. as far as inflation outlook is concerned, we have to look at the momentum. the month on month momentum and what is the momentum of inflation? build up or moderation. either way. what is the momentum of inflation trajectory in the come months? the outlook we have to look at is a forward looking approach.

based on that, we will make a decision. >> many economists believe you don't give forward guidance on rate cuts or policy decisions. i wonder why don't you prepare the markets ahead of time on th% policy pivot? >> it can be very risky because it applies both ways. if you give forward guidance, sometimes given the uncertainty that surrounds us in the world and today is a fast-changing world. the day before the ukraine war started, nobody thought a war of this magnitude or length would happen. the conflict in the middle east came suddenly. the i.t. outage that confronted us two or three months ago, at a global scale, came suddenly. geopolitical risks have happened to a level we have not seen before. relative developments coming with the kind of suddenness we have not seen before.

so, it is so much uncertainty and the monetary policy between the countries are diffiverging. if you give forward guidance, you will sort of be leading the market in one direction. if something happens the other way, something goes wrong, and you will not be able to give your forward guidance, you will unnecessarily without outcome or positive impact for anyone, you would increase the market toward the wrong bus or the wrong train. you directed the market in one particular direction. therefore, we do not give forward guidance in terms of when i'm going to increase the rate or how much we will increase. we don't give forward guidance in that manner. >> reporter: so, there you have it, silvia. the rbi governor don't gives forward guidance on rates. they don't plan to change their policy on that.

they do give forward guidance on growth which is bullish and on inflation and they are expecting inflation roughly to be in the 4% range within their comfort zone. what's rather interesting is reading between the lines and l governor saying you can rule out the rate cut in october because a new mpc, the monetary policy committee, deciding on rates. the mpc equal to the federal reserve board. new board members joining the group. does that mean that deliberations would be extended out to another quarter to december? remember, as far as markets are concerned, there is one brokerage which is calling for a rate cut in october. most brokerages are calling for either a rate cut in december or march before the year runs out.

it remains to be seen. is he ruling out a rate cut in october? i think he is, but it's too hard to tell. of course, the new committee will only decide on what they want to do with rates in the first week of october. back to you. >> great work, tanvir. great time to hear from the governor when it is a busy time for monetary policy. for more from tanvir's interview with the governor and all of the latest news from the world's fifth largest economy, scan the qr code on your screen to subscribe to cnbc's newsletter. let's look at the retail world. the chair of the committee calls for more scrutiny on the shein listing in london. it is upon the ministers to see the firm passes standards on lab a or rules. this is as he calls for a ban on the products made in china. the member of the governing

labor maparty who heads the economy hoped to call the executives into parliament this summer, but was delayed by the elections. let's discuss this and more with our senior analyst at fkr partners. good morning. good to have you on the show. i would like to look at the story. we have been monitoring if shein has been listing in london or not for several months now. does it sound we are in a position to see that happening or is that scrutiny set so high at this stage that we might not see this ipo? >> good morning. thanks for having me. the shein ipo has been rumored for a while. a company exhibited huge growth on both sides of the atlantic in america and europe.

when you list on the stock market, you also get scrutiny in other areas. esg credentials and if there is labor issues. we have seen it with other companies in the sector. >> ultimately shein is a huge player in the retail world. whether or not they list in london remains to be seen. how much pressure is the performance of shein putting on other retailers in the likes of h& h&m? >> it is huge pressure. they are taking share away from the more established fashion players. h&m has had a tricky year. we have seen shein take share in europe and in the u.s. because the price point is more competitive. they've got more scale. that is reading to questions to provide the products at cheap prices leading to the abuses in china. >> what i want to understand is

if they're after the same customer. it feels it is the younger parts of the population that are shopping more heavily at shein. in the likes of h&m and shein going after the same consumer or is there space ultimately for all these companies? >> there probably is space. the likes of zara and h&m target older consumer. we have seen premiumization of the products. ultimately, these are all price competitive retailers and price is very important with the perception of value is important. i think shein, potentially, can cause more trouble for the established players. >> interesting. when we heard from inditex last week, it seems they are paying

off. we see shein pay off. are they delivering on that premium brand? >> one thing that separates them is the shorter lead times. it means they can respond more quickly to fashion trends. h&m doesn't, perhaps, have that competitive advantage . it is not premium and that is what investors are concerned about. >> we will hear from h&m later this month. they will report and they are still under the new leadership with the new ceo. what i like to understand is how successful they have been in changing some of the supply chain dynamics and how important is that when we report later this month? >> i think there have been signs of progress. if you look at q1 and q2, you see green shoots with the top line sales momentum.

you see them make growth with the operating margin target. the proof is in the pudding with the tricky june. the sales collections have been well received. does h&m have the same momentum? it remains to be seen. >> i would like to look at the trends. we are seeing consolidation in the real estate market and we are seeing consolidation in the markets. >> i think that is always a dynamic at play particularly with the bigger retailers. there's always scope for m&a. we are seeing some signs of that, especially with the likes of shein in the market. i think that is a dynamic always on the table. >> where would it actually take place? you know, any sort of potential dynamics within m&a that they

are looking at? >> probably the legacy store-based retailers building on the line presence. we have seen sports direct and fraziers being heavy and jd sports being heavy on both sides of the atlantic. if opportunities arise, they will not hesitate to be active in the myar&a market. >> thank you for your time. that was the head analyst at fkr partners. coming up on the show, u.s. law enforcement investigate what they say is an apparent assassination attempt against the former president trump. we will have the latest reaction from d.c. after this break from dflight. cirkul is the energy that gets you to the next level. cirkul is what you hope for when life tosses lemons your way. cirkul, available at.

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immediately citing question able governance. this is happening as ursula von der leyen reports. in the last couple of days, she has apparently asked for a withdraw and ask for a different appo appointee. we are seeing a public fight which is extremely unusual for european politics. i like to cite one european diplomat i spoke with this morning saying there is a lot of frustration with her at this stage in the way she is conducting these new appointments for her second mandate and cabinet and giving a lot more emphasis to people from her own political party.

we will see how this plays out in the coming weeks. she will have to finish this in the next couple weeks to get approval from the european parliament on her new team. indeed, let's see who is going to be the next commissioner for france. no doubt, an important development from brussels this morning. elsewhere, the fbi is investigating what it describes as an apparent assassination attempt on the life of the former president donald trump. this after the secret service agent spotted a man in the bushes with a scope and rifle with shots fired. one person is in custody after the incident. this comes two months after trump was hit in the ear by a gunman in the rally in pennsylvania. trump and vice president kamala harris put out statements against violence as today marks 50 days until voters go to the

polls. shares in trump media were trading higher at 5.5% in pre-market trade before paring back. we will continue to monitor the stock market. we have nbc news' brie jackson with more from washington, d.c. brie, what are the ramifications of the incident on the political campaign? >> reporter: let's start with the investigation. we do know that police arrested 58-year-old ryan wesley routh. court records show he has a long criminal history or past with more than 100 criminal counts filed against him in north carolina. routh now faces federal charges. he was concealed in bushes and pointed an ar-style riff with a scope outside the golf course.

we were told mr. trump was 40y4400 yards away at the time. secret service quickly took action. the former president did thank everyone for their concern. we know lawmakers on both sides are condemning political violence saying there's no place for that. when it comes to the political ramifications, it remains to be seen how this influences the 2024 election. we do know it was nine weeks ago that there was that first attempt against former president trump's life. that came just days before the republican national convention. so, there was heightened concern around his safety during that time. so, we do know that president biden has said that he has directed his team to ensure the secret service has every resource necessary to ensure president trump's safety, but

voters are still reacting to this. lawmakers have called for political tensions and rhetoric to ease and have said that it's on americans to ensure that incidents like this do not happen moving forward, but it remains to be seen how this impacts the polls and voter enthusiasm. >> exactly. we'll continue to monitor those. thank you for the update. that was brie jackson from nbc news. as we approach the end of the show, here are the four things you need to get ahead of the wall street open. investors are waiting for the thursday meeting for the first rate cut since the fed started hiking rates in march of 2022. disney and directv have reached a deal to restore college football and other programming. directv subscribers lost access to abc and espn earlier this

month. it is 50 days until the presidential election and the new ross poll shows vice president kamala harris with the narrow advantage over republican nominee donald trump on the economic issues. meanwhile, former president trump is safe after the attempted assassination. and the u.s. is considering closing the loophole that would mean shein and temu could be hit with tariffs costs. a closing of the loophole could see prices rising as much as 20%. let's look at the european market so far into the monday session. we have a bit of a mixed picture with the dax and ftse trading in the red. some green over in france and italy. we know that investors are keeping a close eye on what we're going to hear from the fed on wednesday. of course, it's also very heavy on the monetary policy front with the bank of england and

bank of japan also due to report their did latest decisions this week. i want to take you to u.s. futures because last week we had a strong performance on wall street that the nasdaq ended the week up by more than 5%. the s&p ended the week higher by 4%. at this stage, futures suggest it could be a higher start to the trading session also on wall street. let's see what's going to happen. the overall take the investors are taking a cautious approach, i should say, amid all of this uncertainty in terms of what we will get with monetary policy. at this stage, a 59% chance we get a 50-point rate cut. we will see on wednesday. that's it is for tayod's show. i'm silvia amaro. stay with cnbc. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here is your "five@5." developing this morning, a suspect is in custody after allegedly trying to shoot and kill former president trump. we have the very latest on that investigation. also, waiting on a cut. stocks coming off the best week in a year and now turning to the