it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here is your "five@5." the fed kicks off the latest policy meeting today. the two big questions, 25 or 50-basis point cut and how will the market react? ahead of that, stock futures are higher. the dow hitting an all-time high. the s&p closing in on its record. key today is the retail sales report and the state of the cautious consumer. plus, intel jumping on deal

with amazon and structuring the business. pat gelsinger tells cnbc in judgu.s. a moment. and shares of microsoft are higher this morning. it's tuesday, september 17th, 2024. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. ♪ good morning and welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. we kick off with the dow at the all-time high and the s&p a .50% away from the intraday record. the dow would open up 80 points higher. nasdaq moving higher at 67 points. we check the bond market with the fed looking to cut 25 or 50 basis points. the decision coming at 2:00 p.m. eastern on wednesday. the cme pricing in odds of a

50-basis point cut right at 69%. look at yields. the benchmark at 3.61. falling 25 basis points since jackson hole as we approach the fed meeting. the two-year falling almost 50 basis points since jackson hole as we approach the fed meeting. the 30-year still below 4%. let's see how the day is shaping up in london with the trading with silvia amaro. good morning. >> good morning, frank. we have green across the board when looking at european equities this morning. in fact, the stoxx 600 is actually currently trading at a two-week high. let's see what will continue to happen throughout today's session. indeed, this marks an important moment. yesterday, we saw little conviction with european equities. as you can see on your screen, the four major indices are trading in the green.

the ftse 100 trading higher by .80%. this as we approach the bank of england decision on thursday. the communication from the bank of england will be very important to understand if we should expect further rate cuts between now and the end of the year. let me show you the different sectors are trading in today's session. it's been a fascinating moment, really, to look at european banking stocks. earlier this morning, we saw further media reports that unicredit is looking to increase its stake in commerzbank. the german lender up to 30%. banking stocks at this stage up 1.2%. we're seeing more upside in the retail world currently higher by 1.7% after a couple of positive earnings releases within the sector. briefly looking at the worst performing sectors, there's not too much red across the board,

really when you think about the other side of the equation. we are seeing healthcare with a bit of pressure at this stage. thus far, the mood here in europe, frank, is quite positive as investors are keeping an eye on the federal reserve decision tomorrow to understand, indeed, when they will move by 25 or 50 basis points. >> silvia, thank you very much. busy day over there in europe. also, busy day for wall street. we will check on the big money movers. shares of intel up over 6.5%. intel will turn the foundry business into the independent unit with the ability to raise outside capital. sources tell cnbc it might spin off that business as a public company. in an effort to cut costs and raise cash, it is selling the programmable chip business. intel will provide custom chips for amazon a.i. and it is

awarding additional $3 billion under the chips act. pat gelsinger joined "closing bell" last night on the future of the company. >> the foundry subsidiary. agreeing and seeing the great progress we've done on the cost measures to allow us to finish the journey we started three and a half years ago and the financial wherewithal and balance sheet that allows us to finish what we started. >> this morning, we are watching shares of microsoft. you see the shares up 1.5% after it raised the quarterly dividend by 83 cents a share and authorizing a buyback of $63 billion. that coming on the same way that it announced features on copilot. intel and microsoft giving the

board a lift this morning. the dow at the all-time high and the s&p is 1% away from the record. the nasdaq has a way to go and the russell in correction territory. this as the fed kicks off the two-day policy meeting with the cut of either 25 or 50 basis points is expected. let's bring in the global head of the management team. storm, good morning. good to see you. >> good morning, frank. great to be on the show today. >> storm, just reading your notes. you're expecting a 25-basis point cut when the fed makes its decision tomorrow. you say a 50-basis point cut would spook the market and lead to a selloff. if we get the 50-basis point cut, traders are seeing that as a more viable option. is that it?

>> it has been a volatile 18 months. the great thing is in the last six months, we started to see great progress on inflation and the jackson hole speech by powell about four weeks ago where it is time to shift in rate cutting is a great relief. for us, the size of the move tomorrow doesn't really matter too much. we think any stock price volatility is a buyable opportunity. it really is about the steep change into rate cutting environment which we think is we have gotten to this point without too much damage. going forward, we think the market indicators are the employment data that comes in the next six weeks. >> if retail sales are key, if it comes in softer than expected, many people believes it increases the 50-basis point

cut. do you make moves ahead of the decision tomorrow if we see a soft retail sales number? >> yes, we are looking at individual holdings across the portfolio and if we see any dislocation, we will definitely be adding into those positions because the underlining fundamentals are fantastic. you know, market volatility, while it is uncomfortable, particularly in the last two months, with wage data and unemployment data has softened somewhat. dislocations gives us long-term vistas and long-term opportunities. we will put money to work. >> we will talk about dream force kicking off. you have been doing research on the a.i. agents, the next iteration of the copilot.

it will create dislocation we associate with a.i. the microsoft and intuit and salesforce. you say it will benefit the platform companies. explains that thresis for us. >> two years ago, it was revolutionary and magical to use openai chatgpt for the first time. microsoft came out with copilot about 12 months ago. it is okay, but the use case is clunky and it is not intuitive and you cannot integrate it into the day-to-day work flow. what we have seen in the last three months, the start of the new product release cycle from the large enterprise software companies with a.i. agents. this is where you outsource processes that you do inside the enterprise to an agent that does it for you. we saw great announcements with microsoft and starting to see

really cool a.i. agents with python and data science doing powerpoints. we are looking forward to those products released in the next three months. >> storm, i want to skip ahead. you say the platform companies like netflix and amazon and spotify, why do they benefit from the agents and why does it hurt the providers? >> if you implement the technology inhouse, you have cost savings. amazon is using amri q to aid software developers. that brings a savings of $250 million a year. this is the early use case of the technology. companies can drive cost efficiencies. we are expecting new innovation to drive value for the customer. what this is doing is it is creating issues for the incumbents in space providing

salesforce and intuit and workday, maybe instead of buying off the shelf, they will develop them inhouse. this is creating the intuitiveness for the companies. >> storm uru, great to have you here. thank you very much. >> thanks, frank. >> for more on what is driving the markets and the trading day ahead, head to cnbc.com/pro. we have more coming up on "worldwide exchange," and the one word that investors need to know today, but first, the cyber warning over a.i. heading into the presidential election. and the assassination attempt on former president trump which did not stop him from releasing the latest foray into the crypto sector.

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take a look at gold. actually, palo alto networks. as we mentioned, gold is close to a record. we get a report from unit 42, the largest security companies, palo alto network. it is eyeing threats. one take away is generative a.i. is appearing to make attackers more efficient in creating disruption. let's bring in whitnt wendy whitmore. >> thank you, frank. >> thank you for giving us a sneak peek. one thing that caught my eye is to generate that video, it costs about 500. >> you know, i think the reality is the ability for attackers to conduct threats effectively is

much less expensive than organizations to defend against them. that is the case time and again. what we are really looking at for effective election security is organizations to detect early and be prepared and consumers and end users to be widely aware these attacks are coming and deep fake videos are more norm and educated against the attacks. >> i was going to ask is the entry to disrupt the cyber attack? >> i think the interesting challenges we have seen attackers move and shift in terms of their objectives. disruption is such a key factor. when we look at the ransomware attacks, we are not only seeing organization steal data and encrypt it, but looking to disrupt the business and cause disruption to the end consumer so that victim feels that pressure and needs to make a decision more quickly. >> so this year, speaking of the election, 4 billion people

heading to the polls, heading to your research, which is mind boggling. does the size of people in elections around the world increase the danger to the election security that so many are going on at the same time? >> you are referring to over 60 major elections. a massive landscape with billions of people voting. when you have that large expanse of people and data combined with the generative a.i., we have the ability to create much more misinformation. when you get into technology like deep fakes, it becomes very hard for the average person to discern what's real and what's not. whether it is a nation state or cyber criminal, to use that with the potential of earning money on the back end. that is something to watch. >> i want to go to the corporate trend. the top industries impacted by cyberattacks this year have been health care and manufacturing.

if you are a shareholder of a company, what does it snmean? >> i think you need to be more aware than ever to respond quickly. in many cases, you need to enable best security practices. while the technology continues to evolve, a lot of the fundamentals remain the same and that's a positive note. >> that's the positive note. are there any other positives? we talk about the threats with generative a.i. and cyber concerns. the inn >> i think when you look at the software development life cycle, you have the ability to integrate a.i. testing in over part of that in the life cycle. that's great. that makes software more secure and our practices more secure. when you talk about a shortage of employees in cybersecurity which is something that comes up time and again, you now have the

ability to use a.i. to facilitate and automate so many of these attacks, excuse me, investigating the attacks and responding to them and parts of the security life cycle and we can focus the smart people on the challenges that are more challenging to address. >> all right. under two months before the election. wendi whitmore from unit 42. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," what, if anything, can turn around salesforce? stay with us right here on "worldwide exchange."

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." turning into a developing story this morning, ryan wesley routh ryan wes , the suspect in the sunday assassination attempt on donald trump is making his appearance in court. routh is charged with a firearm and firearm with an obliterated serial number.

more charges could be added as the investigation continues. routh's next court date is september 23rd. former president trump reacting to the second attempt on his life. >> he was very nice today. he called up to make sure i was okay and to make sure that, you know, if i have any suggestions. we do need more people on my detail. we have 50,000 people showing up to events. other people don't have that. he couldn't have been nicer. turning back to wall street. the former president turning back to the campaign trail. former president trump is continuing with his business obligations, including one last night and the announcement of the new trump family crypto project. we have mackenzie sigalos with more. >> reporter: good morning, frank.

donald trump revealed his family crypto platform during the two-hour live stream on x hosted from his mar-a-lago resort in florida. the former president was light on details and never talked about the launch. he handed off the mic to his sons and others in the inner circle for world liberty financial. the group described it as a decentralized banking platform where you are encouraged to borrow and lend stablecoins. his three sons, eric, donald junior and barron are on the team along with steve witkoff and his sons. as for what we know about world liberty, the platform is not live yesterday ayet. it is the only firm detail we got last night.

20% of the tokens will be allotted to the team, including to the trump. 17% are set aside for user rewards and 63% for the public to purchase. the project memo leaked to the press had the founder shares at 70% sparking concerns this would be little more than a get-rich-quick scheme. frank. >> how is the big unveil? how is that going over with the crypto community? >> reporter: world liberty financial is not winning trump with the crypto community which is raising and spending a record amount of cash. you have crypto corporations out raising banks and bill g oil. with less than 50 days to go before the election, crypto is up to $190 million in donations.

the winklevoss twins have given $10 million and brian armstrong at $1.3 million. they have been spending big this year. c krakenco-founder has given $1 million to the trump campaign. what is especially interesting here, frank, sam bankman-fried accounted for the past cycles of crypto. the cash raised represents a lot of crypto players showing up in force. >> mackenzie sigalos, thank you. for a quick market flash of rxo. the company completing the $1 billion acquisition of coyote from ups. rxo is the third largest in the

u.s. i spoke with drew wilkerson yesterday. >> we're hearing different things from different customers. so have a very robust peak season. others tell us they expect a moderated peak season similar to last year. what gets us excited about the acquisition is first, there is very little customer overlap. you look at our top 25 customers, there is only overlap within three of them. the accounts that do $1 million in revenue go up 80%. coming up here on "worldwide exchange,"he fal r tinead of the consumer ahead of the fed decision and what it could mean for the magnitude of the first cut since 2020. we'll be right back after this break.

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you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's get you ready for the trading day head. futures in the green across the board. very close to the highs this morning. the s&p would open up 18 points higher. the dow would open up 19 points higher. we have a number of stocks on the move this morning. we start off with shares of in intel. they are jumping. up almost 7% on a number of headlines. the company plans to turn the foundry business into an independent unit with the ability to raise outside capital. sources tell cnbc it might spin off the business as a public company. intel will produce custom a.i.

chips for amazon web services and the white house is awarding the company additional $3 billion under the chips act. shares up 7%. we're looking at shares of microsoft raising the quarterly dividend by 11% and offering a share buyback program. shares up 2% higher on the week. then apple shares hit on analyst caution for iphone 16 demand. for the week, it is down 2.5%. we are checking the bond market as the fed kicks off the two-day policy meeting today. the yields are close to the lows of the year. the ten-year is the 3.61. it has fallen 25 basis points since jackson hole when we got the clear indication from jay powell that we should expect rate cuts coming up.

the two-year falling 50 basis points since jackson hole right now at 3.55. thafrnl . that is the money set up right now. we have the top stories with one tech giant putting its foot down with being in the office. pippa ceris here. >> andy jassy is ordering staff members to return to the office five days a week starting after the new year. the company believes it offers significant advantages. this moves a shift from the previous stance which required workers to be in the office three days per week. openai announcing the safety and security company will become an independent board oversight committee. the committee created in may, will oversee the safety and security procedures of openai deployment and development. this comes as the chatgpt maker pursues the funding around to

value at $150 billion. the head of the faa will testify before the house transportation committee next week on the boeing fall quality improvement plan. this comes in the wake of the january door plug blowout. boeing delivered a reformed plan to the faa in may and the agency is still reviewing it. quite the saga here, frank. >> absolutely. boeing shares up .25%. as you mentioned, deep declines since these issues have come up. pippa, thank you. turning attention back to the top market story. the federal reserve kicking off the two-day policy meeting with the interest rate decision tomorrow. what could be the final factor in deciding if the cut is 25 or 50 basis point is today's retail sales report.

headline numbers are showing contraction compared to july. joining me now with more is jh jherone martis. >> thank you, frank. good to be here. >> you have been saying this about a lot of things . in all fairness, this is the last big economic report before the decision tomorrow. if it comes in line with 2% or softer, does that solidify the 50-basis point cut. >> our estimate is negative 0.3% growth overall excluding autos. it is a better picture in line with july. a lot of consumers bought cars in july and now the reverse in august. still, august retail sales could see a boost from groceries and back-to-school sales and consumers that went on vacation.

a little bit of splurge on restaurants. >> in your mind, if it comes in softer than expected, i know you have a different number. if it comes in below that, what does it mean for the fed decision? does it solidify 50 basis points? >> lseg is looking at 25 now and in december. whether we have something in between depends on the labor market reports over the next two months. now, what we are seeing will happen tomorrow is the fed will hike their unemployment forecast, but when it comes to gdp and core pce, little to no change. that's not enough pressure to accelerate a bigger rate cut. >> let's talk about the estimates when it comes to restaurant and retail profits. this is interesting. for q2, you have 14%. strong growth year over year. >> absolutely. >> for q3, .6%.

flat. what does that tell us about the state of the consumer? >> it is definitely highlighting the slowdown with the consumer. after two years of consecutive quarters of double digit growth, like you mentioned 0.6% growth. there are a lot of factors affecting the consumer right now. it's an election year and employment is flashing red. on top of that, they are still dealing with elevated prices. what we are seeing is elevated volatility and consumer prices. retailers are warning not to expect too much from them. we are seeing negative guidance. because of that, the expectations for the second half of the year are significantly lower than before. >> expectations are lower. you gave us a list of stocks where the expectations for a beat with eps were strong. we will show them the list. amazon. huge online retailer. the other one is the gap. the other one is a name i have not heard of. i had to look this up. a canadian retailer.

is there something these three companies have in common? >> because of the value proposition. the consumer is all about value. they are opening up wallets if they feel they are getting a good value or discount. old navy has been a big winner during the back-to-school season and in the holiday season. amazon will have another prime event around october which will boost october u.s. retail sales. the consumer is about instant gratification. then, the consumer is getting an experience with aritzia. you can have a free latte while shopping. >> i never heard of this company. up 65% year to date. is there a brand they create? >> no, but what is interesting is now they introduced their own athleisure wear which has lower

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet. micron cut from 190 to $150. citi is expecting next week's quarterly results to miss the mark. mizuho initiates dell with tailwinds with the enterprise storage uptick with the needs of artificial intelligence. and redburn cites the attractive structure growth and ability to win additional share. time for the global briefing. officials are heading to china this week holding meetings over the concern of cheap chinese exports hitting markets around the world. the two sides will meet thursday and friday. the bank of japan may not hike rates this week. the survey of economists shows

the agreement that there will be no change in policy. nearly 19% think a move could happen in october and 25% think that will happen in december. shares of midea group are surging in hong kong. this is the second biggest globally at the new york stock exchange which raised over $5 billion. still ahead, the one word every investor needs to know today, but salesforce is looking to excite investors at the annual conference as they try to rebound from the q1 miss. we'll have that and much more when we come right back.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." some of the biggest names are descending on california today for the salesforce conference. ahead of that, salesforce announcing it is putting $500 million toward an a.i. fund putting the commits to $1 billion. the company hopes to turn the page on the recent stock struggles down 5% since the q1 revenue miss. the first since 2006 which happened back in may. it is different for oracle sitting at a fresh all-time

high. let's bring in the global head of research from bnp paribas. >> thank you, frank. >> let's start off with dreamforce. do you expect any announcements? whether a.i. agents or financial guidance that you think will move the stock? >> so, we do think it is a hugely important event for salesforce with the a.i. strategy. we are not convinced it will be important for the stock. two reasons. one is that we will get a lot of product and customer announcements, but the a.i. strategy is still taking shape. two years ago, they talked about genie. last year, they talked about einstein 1.0. they need to settle down and make that strategy clearer for customers to commit. the second thing on the financial front, there will be an analyst and investor presentation tomorrow. we are not certain the ceo and cfo will be there. we are not expecting changes to

guidance. there is a cfo transition under way. because of those two things, we don't think it will be a significant catalyst for the stock this week. >> not a significant catalyst for the stock. we had a guest on earlier in the show who said the a.i. agents may with a long-term headwind for intuit and microsoft, because they will help netflix or spotify create programs to make them less reliant on the companies that create the a.i. agents. agree? disagree? >> frank, this debate has been going on for 18 months now in software with the shift from copilots to agents. they were talking about copilots assist in the day-to-day work. now the communication and the communication from the company is more about the a.i. agents puert performing tasks and replacing

workers. that does create questions around the business models for the software and service companies where the seat-based business models and charged on a consumption basis. will customers pay for that consumption in addition to the licenses they have or c cannibolize the business? >> what is your take on oracle as a software company? we saw a big software slump and now now oracle mosving higher. >> three companies we have out perform on oracle, s.a.p. and microsoft. first, you have revenue growth accelerating as the cloud business is a bigger portion of revenue. it is pulling up overall growth and secondly, the product cycle

stories. you have microsoft with copilot and you have cloud and oracle with oci growing over 50%. for all three of those companies, we are seeing that benefitting them. those are also stocks with reasonable valuations still. i think, like i said before, for salesforce and workday, for the cloud companies, you are still seeing weak demand. revenue growth is slowing. you are reliant on the macro recovery to see that accelerate. you see the gen a.i. models if we move away from seat-based sales into the consumption m model. >> thank you very much. jim cramer will have more on salesforce when he sits down with marc benioff on "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern. those with oracle are helping

ellison jump to the second richest person. shares of oracle surged 20% this month putting them on track since the best month of october of 2022. coming up, stocks heading into the big fed meeting with mo momentum. futures in the green. the dow would open up more than 100 points higher. metoor the nasdaq. coming flying sector our next guest says could get some love. we'll be right back after this break.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." here's what to watch today. the latest looks at retail sales and homeowner sentiment. we get the big rate decision tomorrow. we hear from lorie logan this morning. a number of interviews throughout the day on cnbc. including the ceo of chevron and baker hughes. ahead of the kickoff of the policy meeting from the fed, a look at the futures. in the green across the board. the s&p is 22 points higher. the dow and nasdaq are higher as

well. let's bring in chris for the latest. >> good morning, frank. >> how do you see today shaping up? what is your "wex" word of the day? >> my word of the day is harborage. we are seeing an inflexion point with the economy and interest rates and the election ahead of us and complicated international situation and market, overall, i wouldn't call cheap. it is pricing in a soft landing. i wouldn't pull the boats from the water, but i would be cautious here. we are looking for safe havens and pricing power and earnings and good balance sheets in the very near term. >> with that in mind, chris, today's retail sales number, does that, in your mind, have big implications for investors right now? a lot of people think it is the quote, unquote, final decision on the 50 basis points? >> we don't spend a lot of time

with the final basis points. we look at the data points and what the companies are saying. it would appear the consumer is tired. the economy is slowing. that's pretty clear. you are seeing, you know, some response by companies in preserving layoffs and how they want to go in the rate cutting journey. obviously, 50-basis points is supportive of asset values. it does present a negative signal. >> if it goes 50 basis points, that is a negative signal and spook the market a lot of people are saying. right now, the mag 7, that is the place you would put money. we have seen mag 7 names under pressure with jackson hole and jay powell indicating we will get that cut. why do you think getting that cut turns their fortunes around? >> i'm not sure it is related to the cut, but the strained

situation with the rate hiking cycle, companies with long duration cash flows have done better. that's because they are viewed, i think, as safe havens and balanced sheets and secular tailwinds in a.i. they have been where investors have gravitated to through this uncer uncertainty. they lagged because investors are pricing in a soft landing with rate cuts and looking elsewhere. we're looking elsewhere, too. we are smaller company companies outside of the mag 7. in the near term, they return to the pride of place as safe havens. >> i am saying under performing, not trading lower. i want to get to the safe havens you have. campbell's soup is one. our parent company of comcast. why are these names you would put money to work in right now? >> i think one of the attractive themes is looking for companies with defensive cash flows and

rate tailwinds. some of these are the bond appro proxies that have gotten beaten up in the covid era. they straightened that out. to pick a couple of them. it is no longer campbell's soup. it is campbell company. they have been building up the snack business. they could separate those two businesses with the largest acquisition of kellanova with the demand of assets. comcast, media industry has been beaten up. secular tailwinds are known. cord cutting is priced into the stock. 80% of the business is from cable business. they should price to continue to grow the company as they work through the challenging at nbc. >> chris, almost out of time. all of the stocks have

dividends. how important are dividends as we see the rate cycle begin? >> you will not get the 5% juicy t-bill returns anymore. you still get them today, obviously. investors will look for income elsewhere. that is important for total return. >> chris, thank you very much. one more quick look at futures before we let you go. in thegreen across the board. the dow would open up 100 points higher. that will do it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. triple digit gains indicated for the dow and the nasdaq as the fed kicks off a two-day policy meeting and we get you ready for tomorrow's interest rate decision. will it be 50? will it be 25? nobody knows. 50's looking more likely. overhaul. intel looking to separate its foundry business as a sub

subsidiary. that will work. details straight ahead. and amazon ceo andy jassy is telling corporate employees to report to work five days a week. the horror. it's tuesday, september 17th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and right now, you are looking at some pretty significant advances in the markets based on yesterday's closes and yesterday's market activity. dow indicated up another 100 plus points. that comes after closing at an all-time high yesterday. s&p was on the