details straight ahead. and amazon ceo andy jassy is telling corporate employees to report to work five days a week. the horror. it's tuesday, september 17th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. and right now, you are looking at some pretty significant advances in the markets based on yesterday's closes and yesterday's market activity. dow indicated up another 100 plus points. that comes after closing at an all-time high yesterday. s&p was on the six-day winning streak as of yesterday.

this morning, it is indicated up another 20 plus points. the nasdaq, which broke a five-day winning streak closed down and was up as well. if you are watching treasury yields, you did see the two-year yield at the lowest level in two years. this morning, the two-year at 3.55. the ten-year at 3.61, in anticipation of what the fed will do this week, as joe mentioned more likely 50-basis points. i don't know if you saw the three democratic senators writing in for a 75-basis cut. warren -- >> do we have 75? i like it. >> jaw boning to make 50-basis points. political pressure in all forms. gold prices yesterday ending at the all-time high yesterday. this morning, it is traded off $8. sitting below $2,600 an ounce.

intel announcing the plan to turn the foundry business into an independent subsidiary to allow it to raise outside funding and use the foundry business to manufacture chips to other customers. the company spending $25 billion on each of the past two years. the new entity would have its own board, which could also make it easier for intel to spin off as a separately publicly traded open. the option is under consideration as well. this comes as intel announces two deals. an award up to $3 billion from the u.s. government to manufacture chips for pentagon and expand the deal with amazon web services to make custom chips for aws. lots of different moving parts to the intel world. it is big news. >> financial engineering as last

resort of scoundrels. a sadthing to watch for what was really one of the pre-eminent tech companies for decades. and one that is bigger than intel. amazon instructing corporate staffers, oh, the humanity, to spend five days a week in the office. andy jassy wrote in a memo that employees have until january 2nd to start adhering to the new policy. he said, his words are expectation is people will be in the office outside of ex extenuating circumstances. the previous requirement was for three days in the office. they will have fewer managers ordinance to, in their words, remove layers and flatten organizations that process that can involve eliminating some roles. >> he has been on a tear trying

to get rid of bureaucracy. amazon got bigger and more bloated the last decade. he is on the mission to take that out. microsoft unveiling a $60 billion stock buyback program and raising the quarterly dividend 10%. that would bring the yelled from 0.7%. that ranks near the bottom of the dividend paying stocks. that buyback ranks as the third largest this year behind amazon and alphabet. it is up close to 17%. let's bring an update on the tiktok hearing in federal appeals court that took place yesterday. we talked a lot about what might happen. a three-judge panel signaling skepticism that the company could have taken less drastic action to satisfy national security concerns about the app. the litigants have asked to rule by december 6th so there is enough time for the supreme

court to review the case before the law takes effect. it does sound, at least from what i read, it will be a tough, tough, tough road for tiktok. ag again, unclear how all this gets satisfied. meaning, frank mccourt plan or anybody else to take it over may be null and void. >> the judges were asking specifically about other instances. one judge said why is this any different than foreign ownership of a broadcast company? sony can't own whatever broadcast company it was looking at? another point was a case from the reagan era and said the plo is not allowed to do something. national security and the idea of first amendment speech. some of the judges commented this is nottaking away free speech, but can't be owned and

controlled by a foreign entity. >> i don't know how it plays out. this is dragging out now. we were talking about this a year ago, at least. >> the question becomes by counting down the clock, do you get to a point of a new administration and trump signalled he is no longer opposed to this. maybe this law goes away. >> you were saying you haven't seen anything. we waited a year. have you seen anything yet? >> i still haven't seen anything yet. i'm always talking about the documentation issue. if the united states wants to make just the straight argument that -- like becky mentioned, we won't allow a foreign company to effectively own our television air waves and that's just the rule and that's the rule because that's the rule -- that's fine. i have no problem with creating that rule if that's what we decide we want to do. my problem is that we haven't -- we're saying and creating this rule because of this other

issue. as if -- i don't know the plo story. because we actually think that something absolutely nefarious has already happened. that i'm still demonstrably waiting on. >> i never understood why you couldn't own a broadcast. if japan, which is a much friendlier country, at this point. can't own steel or broadcast -- >> a dangerous direction we're headed. we certainly like to be able to operate around the world, our companies, freely. attractive asset over there somewhere. >> that's actually very interesting. let's say, you know, comcast or warner bros. discovery wants to own a media company in japan. >> they can use our influence, i think, other places around the world, to be more american. >> the reciprocal, china has never allowed us to own social media apps. >> right. maybe that's part of the quid

pro quo, clarise. i can finish your sentences. >> a four-letter phrase now. four-letter phrase now. all right, boeing announced sweeping -- >> i'm a mother in my house. >> sweeping costs cutting measures yesterday. including hiring freeze, a pause on non-essential staff travel and reduction on supplier spending. they are dealing with a cash crunch. the cfo brian west said the company will pause most with your purchases with the 767 and 777 jetliners. it is considering temporary furloughs for employees and managers and executives in the coming weeks. it said boeing is working in

good faith for the contract agreement which reflects the workers feedback. airbus is going like this over the last two years. it is all playing into that duopoly. they had the upper hand for more than two years. what's happening here? >> i don't have any insight. sean comes abs in the manha hotel. he believed he was being charged with racketeering and sex trafficking. the district of new york will unseal the indictment this morning. combs has been under scrutiny since a former girlfriend filed a lawsuit late november accusing him of years of sexual and physical abuse. mr. combs have been nothing but cooperative with the investigation. he relocated to new york last

week in anticipation of these charges. please reserve your judgment until you have all of the facts. these are the acts of an innocent man with nothing to hide. he looks forward to clearing his name in court. i have nothing to add because i don't know enough. i'll wait for the unsealing. this is very serious. this is speculated about and rumored about. the terrible tapes and you can see with your own eyes. >> in the hotel hallway. >> the halls of the hotel. i don't know. we can all reserve judgment. we also saw pretty bad stuff. all right. when we come back, the fed kicking off a two-day policy meeting. we will talk about the size of the expected rate cut next. later, former dallas fed president robert kaplan.

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welcome back, everybody. on the squawk planner, the fed kicking off a two-day policy meeting. we will get the interest rate announcement tomorrow afternoon followed by the news conference, the chairman, jay powell. on the data front, august retail sales are due at 8:30 a.m.

eastern time. economists expect a decline of .2% after the jump of 1% last month. joining us now is roger hallon at vanguard. roger, this has to be the most closely watched fed meeting in years. we know we will get into a position where the fed is starting this lower rate cycle. how much does it matter what they decide today in terms of whether it's 25 basis points or 50? >> as you say, i think the decision is very, very close. markets are pricing a little over 50% chance of 50-basis rate cut this week. our base case is the fed delivers a 25-basis point cut this week. we think the combination of the decent momentum in the economy and the fed preserving o optionality of 25 bps.

we understand there are others that think 50 bps is the right option. the combination of real policy rates are and the clear slowing we have seen in the labor market over recent months is understandable with policy rates, 50 bps is what the fed is considering. >> when you say you think 25 basis points makes sense in case the economic case difficult ve diff diverges, when inflation comes back? >> that gives the fed the greater optionality. we see growth maintain decent strength. it would give the fed greater optionality of how it pursues the future. markets would run ahead and think it would further 50 basis rate cuts at subsequent

meetings. >> there is a lot of talk how it would spook the market if the fed goes 50 basis points because they think the fed knows something we don't. i wonder if it will be spooked with 25 because the 50 is almost baked in at this point. more people are expecting that than not. if it is not delivered, the narrative is the fed is doing this too slow just like they raised rates too slow and let inflation get out of control. >> the fed has tended to deliver over recent cycles what the market has got priced. that's why the articles over the past week or so, we've seen putting forward are interesting. you go back to june of 2022, we had an article that guided that the fed was hiking by 75 basis points. we have seen articles over the

last week different and much more opinion pieces and setting out the case for 50 or 25. i don't think they're giving such a clear steer. i think you are right to say if the fed delivers 50 bps, they will subsequently deliver 50 bps. if you see weaker data, you could sget a more risk asset aversion as the fed risks falling behind the curve. >> is there any reason the fed should care what the market reaction is? within reason, you are talking about 25 basis points. not that big of a deal one way or the other. we talk all the time how politicians shouldn't be allowed to bully the fed. should investors? >> that's right. even if the fed delivers 25, it would come with dovish messages if we did see a further deterioration, the fed would stand ready to quicken that pace.

from that perspective, 25 or 50 is not the be all or end all this week, but the messaging of the future trajectory and how the fed would respond to economic surprises. >> give us the outlook of where you think rates will be at the end of the year. >> we think bond markets are attractive here. 1.5% of the ten-year point offering good compensation relative to yields over the past decade or so. we think that corporate spreads are sound. we think the fed has your back in terms of risk taking. we are seeing strong flow ns in bonds. fixed forecast still offers a strong balance within the overall portfolio context. we think yields can fall further with economic conditions deteriorate further and good

rational with income at these levels. >> roger, we mentioned warren and whitehouse and hickenlooper wrote the fed should cut 75 basis points at this meeting. is there an argument for that in your view? >> real policy rates at 3% are certainly very high relative to where we've seen in recent decades. that's why the fed is set to start easing this meeting and continue to cut rates at sub sc subsequent meetings. i think the fed will maintain and proceed gradually and always quicken the pace if we see economic conditions weaken. >> okay. roger, thanks a lot for your time this morning. coming up, the fda approved apple's sleep apnea detection feature.

we will tell you how it works when we come back. a look at the numbers on the speculation we may be getting a bigger rate cut than eecd xptea couple days ago. we'll see. "squawk box" is coming right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the fda approved the apple sleep detection device. it is available for the software upgrade. the feature tracks movements of

the wrist of normal breathing patterns. apple will analyze and show the data to users once a month. you can take the report and generate it and take to your medical provider. this is fascinating things that apple is doing in the health space with their watch. i know somebody who discovered through their watch that they had a heart problem and the watch kept telling them they thought there was a problem. young guy. he didn't believe it. after it went off twice, he said, okay, i'll go to the doctor and find out. he ended up having not open heart surgery, but a surgery as a result of it. there's so many stories of people whose lives, oddly, enough, saved by the apple watch. tim cook will tell you those stories himself. people send letters to apple thanking them. >> go ahead. >> no, no.

this could be one of those things where people -- >> the standard diagnostic test is not pleasant. >> not at all. >> what you see when people try to make you get a different -- you know, the implant for sleep apnea. they show people sitting around with the miig-fighter masks on. >> they make you sleep with one of those? >> worse. wear it on your face and sleep on your back and turn it on. >> at home? >> at home. it's at home. they give it to you to take home. >> this is if you have sleep apnea. the test -- >> this is if you have it. >> now, apparently, the new sleep test, i'm told, because i looked into this. i looked into this. >> no way. >> it is more like the aura ring. they attach two or three of these things to your fingers and

not wired up. >> the apple stuff is really great, too. the picture we showed had the earbuds as hearing aids. things that can change quality of life. >> if you can diagnose through a wrist watch instead -- >> that would be great. >> if you have it, then -- >> it's a whole other issue. >> you have to clean it. it's gross. the whole thing. >> cpap? >> yeah. your spittle is going in there. it's gross. bacteria. yeah, great. get an implant. >> then you won't have to clean your spittle. >> then you are getting an implant. >> yo most case of the earbuds,e concert or loud event, you can use them as earplugs to filter through the loud noises to hear

better without hurting your ears. pretty cool. >> it is cool. >> losing weight can cure sleep apnea. m monjauro works for everything. >> losing weight. we have been talking about this like crazy. because it makes your -- i know people who cut their blood levels come back and better than it used to be. unbelievable. >> i'll wait until other people do it, like a decade, and see what comes back. coming up, larry ellison's 80. >> he looks amazing. >> and sounds amazing. >> shakeup on the list of the world's richest people. larry ellison climbing the ranks. details next. as we head to break, here is yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures. triple digit gains in the dow and nasdaq indicated with the s&p chiming in up about 22 points. dow closed at an all-time high yesterday. the price of bitcoin was solid. doing a little bit better. up about 2% this morning. we're watching the japanese yen strengthening past 140 to the dollar for the first time since july of last year. traders expect diverging policy to continue from the u.s. in japan with the central banks. the federal reserve, as you are aware by now, is expected to cut rates tomorrow and the boj is

expected to hold rates steady this week, but raise by a quarter point before the end of the year. in the meantime, oracle chairman larry ellison has claimed the title of the world's richest person after jeff bezos. his net worth to $206 billion thanks to the rise of the oracle share price. he trails elon musk who is worth $251 billion. all this according to "forbes." >> you heard the dinner he and elon musk had with jensen huang? >> that would be funny. either one of them have crocodile arms when the check comes? >> larry said he picked up the check. >> he did? >> yeah. >> so funny. i have no concept. >> i don't think you pay. i think you walk out and they bill you. >> right.

i have no concept. you cannot -- it's like "brewster's millions." you can't make a dent in it no matter what you do. if you had to make a dent in it, it would be like a chore. >> how do you give away that much? >> how do you do anything with it? you just have it. i guarantee you, when i lies on his back and has sleep apnea, it's like damn, i have $200 billion and i have sleep apnea. i don't know. he has something. you're 80. starbucks ceo briban niccol is make aing a move with the ch brand o brand. the current north american ceo michael conway will retire in november. he worked at starbucks for

years, but promoted to his current job in march. his role won't be filled and he will stay on as an adviser until his retirement. coming up, medical care for the ultra wealthy. a closer look at the market for concierge medicine. i know about this. i don't know. i mean, i guess they pick up the phone. rr's really kind of a scam. soy. the guy's here. get the best of squawk pod and listen anytime. we'll be right back.

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the size of the market for concierge medicine is expected to hit $11 billion in almost a

decade. memberships can range from $25,000 to $40,000 a year in exchange for medical services 24/7. joining us now is the co-founder of the businesses is dr. jordan schlain and cnbc's robert frank who just wrote a piece on this called "meet the private doctor to the wealthy." it was offered to me, but it was easier to make an appointment. in your case, it covers everything? >> that's right. the existing system sis a broke-fix model. we try to prevent something from breaking in the first place. cure is a bad business model. our job is to keep you out of the healthcare system. >> in principle, it sounds good. there is a thing called aging where you don't have to do

anything wrong where things go wrong. >> that's true. there's a lot of things you can do, by the way, to mitigate and delay aging. as a friend at the aging conference in copenhagen a few weeks ago, one top scientist said, there is not anything you can do better than exercise. for the whole body. >> and keeping your weight in a better range. >> sleep, diet, fiber, social nutrition. this type of stuff. >> you shouldn't drink a bottle of bourbon every night. >> probably a bad idea. >> what did you find out about all this? should we do it? it's like in cities. more in manhattan than out in the 'busrbs. >> what is? i've helped hundreds over my career. i'm going to a conference in indianapolis later where

hundreds of concierge doctors are meeting. >> is it difficult to meet a service for physicians? >> most are owned by private equity or hospitals. primary care doctors are tip of the spear. we are not the glamorous surgeon. we get asked to do more for less and our soul sucked out of us. by the way -- >> you bring out -- >> i started out 25 years ago on a scooter making house calls. i had a stcell phone and a page >> is private equity a problem? >> they are looking at rollups in the space and a lot of people are nervous in the medical field. >> do you think it should be allowed? >> i think it needs to be closely looked at. my question is are you doing what you are doing for the medicine or are you doing it for the money? >> right. >> clearly, they're doing it for the money. >> if you are doing it for the

medicine, you can do it for the money. if you are doing it for the money, you don't care much about medicine. >> i first heard about you with the private banks who was the top speaker to the ultra wealthy and the favorite speakers, many said dr. schlain. i'm curious, what is driving the growth? concierge medicine has been around for decades. since the pandemic, you have seen explosive growth not just at your firm, but others. what's driving it? >> i think people looking at health care and every other service in their life. we have no problem putting our kids in private schools or flying business class to get a product. in medicine, it is one size fits all. like the dmv everywhere. that's not where you want to go for your health care. i started 25 years ago and just at a high level, concierge medicine, is a membership model.

you pay the docdoctor. they have a number of panels. i guess some have a concierge doctor or in the process of getting a concierge doctor. >> i don't have one. i know joe doesn't have one. >> to me, and i'm not one that is always talking about a gallitarian society and things like that. it makes me feel almost uncomfortable. think about the uk. if you don't go to the national health service, it's another example of income inequality where average people or poor people are not getting health care and those who pay the best seat at the restaurant or concert, suddenly -- >> everybody has a base case with obamacare, i won't go into politics. everywhere, someone has a base level of health care they get. i would say the wealthy gets

worse care. it has been written about where they know the ceo of the hospital and say i know a guy. i can pick up the phone and get what i want. the problem is you are in the ditch. when you call the ceo of the hospital, you are in the ditch. getting pulled out of the ditch is not a great strategy. >> how is that worse than people who don't havehemalthcare? >> the doctors get nervous in front of powerful people. a lot of people do. not just doctors. they will under treat because they don't want to bug the person or overtreat. you get overtreat and under there i treat. >> i thought it was massive treatment and treatment was wrong. >> yes. that's why our practice started 25 years ago. i hire top doctors from leading medical centers. we take care of kids, adults and adult children of adults.

we have a lot of three-generation families. what we are seeing now are a lot of fortune 1000 c-suite are interested in this as an executive benefit. we see financial firms getting this to their teams. we have a network of over 4,000 experts i curated. i can call somebody and get an answer for you when you get off the show. we have a dna of innovation. all of the new longevity trends and treatments, i get exposed to them first and look at the safety and he efficacy and look what is better. >> trading your blood? >> there's so much crazy. i would ask anybody looking at some intervention and i had a guy who wanted to do the supplement that's injectable. >> into his blood? >> the vial.

i hire a company and he wanted to inject himself. i ran a test here in new york and it had the protein in it, but mdna and herbicide and other chemicals. before you put anything in your body, please know what's in it? >> we had the ceo of ag-1 here. is that any good or not? >> amy answer to this is show m the studies in peer review journals published in legitimate journals with safety and efficacy profiles. before i talk to you, you have to show me the data. >> the dr. feel good on the side of the van you are buying it from -- isn't that your first clue? >> it's a carnival out there in the longevity space. literally a carnival. it is literally important you take the lens of science when you look at these things. the truth is like we talked

about sleep, exercise and diet and hanging out with friends. >> it sounds like this is, again, supply and demand. the demand is great. the supply is small. suddenly, there's a black market for rich people at the corner -- why is it different? >> it is not just rich people. there are practices that charge $1,000 a year. by the way, i have a question for you. we are all depreeciating assets here. do you want to be healthier in ten years or healther than now? >> because i pay the fees? >> most people don't have a strategy for their future self. strategy for investments. our strategy is hope. i hope this doctor's good. well, our thesis is we're going to build a detailed strategy. you are just a basket or portfolio of risk.

ca ca cardio risk. >> he looked at me. >> you can't have a strategy. >> is that a lot of tests you do? >> we do detailed evidence-based tests. we are not doing this crazy town testing that a lot of other people are doing. >> what's your annual fee? >> our annual fee is $40,000 for adults and $25,000 for kids. >> how big is your practice? >> 25 physicians both coasts of the country. we have about 1,000 families in the practice. we think about it as families. >> like a family office. >> multi-family office. 40 for adults. 25 for kids. >> that's a lot. >> it's a lot. when you think about your most valuable asset. i like at it an an investment and not expense. what else will you spend your money on? when you look at what you spend

your money on? private schools. >> my kids go to public school. >> my kids go to public schools, too. >> what is the additional cost beyond that? >> none. >> the 40 grand gives me access to you. you tell me i need to work out four days a week with a trainer. now additional $20,000 of costs. >> if you need a trainer. some people can work out without a trainer. >> trust me, if you are at $40,000, are yoyou are buying a trainer and a glp-1. >> is that a good thing? >> let's talk about the additional cost. cvs or walgreens or somebody is getting a lot of money. you are putting people on smesmemt supplements. >> i think the glp-1 is fascinating. what do you val more? time or money? y we have all of the money, but

we're time poor. how do you buy more time? my job is to keep you out of the healthcare system. >> how much time am i spending with you per year? >> by test message? >> i have to come in a couple of times? >> we send somebody to your house to get have people around country that can help sort this stuff out. we are the pioneers. we have had every situation come our way. >> psychiatric and therapy services as well? >> by the way -- >> is that included in the 40 grand? >> i consider 70% doctor and 15% psychiatrist -- >> interesting. the all new godaddy airo helps you get your business online in minutes with the power of ai... ...with a perfect name, a great logo, and a beautiful website. just start with a domain, a few clicks,

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welcome back to "squawk box." social media giant, meta, saying it's banning russia after acting as an arm of moscow's spy agencies. they are banned from their apps. meta had already began limiting russian-state controlled media sources two years ago. meanwhile sticking with the topic of russia, yesterday president putin wanted the army to increase troop levels, the third increase since the russian ukraine warbegan. our next guest is stephanie baker, the author of "punishing

putin." the book is just out and it's fascinating. stephanie, i want to talk to you about whether you believe ultimately that all of the sanctions and everything the u.s. is doing is working, because it appears from the outside that is it not. >> right. i like to ask people how they define working. if you define, quote, unquote, working, as driving putin out of ukraine, they failed. have they imposed an issue with the economy, then they are successful. they have done everything from capping russia's oil revenues and stopping them from getting what they need for the guided missiles. i think they could tighten up the sanctions regime to make it far more effective.

i think it's a page out of putin's propaganda to say we are just fine and sanctions are not working, and it's from the public spending on the war and defense production as well as sanctions and the pressure on imports. >> part of the argument is it has been slow. putting some of the sanctions on has been slow. i am curious what you think of other countries, like india, for example, that continues to bo oil from russia? >> yeah, i think you hit the nub of the matter. oil is the key here and it goes back decades, and at the end of 2022 you saw the g summit come together. that worked for a while and then

russia assembled its shadow fleet of oil tankers, and what caught everybody by surprise is the degree india stepped up, they went to 40%, and until the u.s. and europe can cap putin's revenues from the oil. >> it can push the price up to where it made up for the shortfall because they are selling it for a lot more per barrel and we could not control the price they could get from countries like india. it almost backfired. >> india did step up to do the opportunistic trade when russian oil was being sold at a discount and it's about $10 below as

where before the war the discount was much less, like 2. there was an impact and i agree russia has been able to earn, particularly in the early days of the war when there was panic over the supply and they could earn huge amounts of oil. what has not happened, there has not been enough of an enforcement of the price cap and they have not gone after enough of the tankers, and they sanctioned 65 vessels. it's all for everybody there to see -- you can look at satellite tracking data and marine traffic. it's the data that is available. if they want to go after russia's oil revenues they can. there has been concern about spiking prices and i think that's held back some more robust enforcement actions. >> stephanie, i'm concerned the sequel to the book -- this book

is called "punishing putin," and the next book will be called "pun "punishing xi." the lessons of this experience has been, will it take place with china? >> good question. i viewed the sanctions against russia as a grand experiment because never has such a large coalition come together to san chun such an economy so integrated with the financial system and it taught lessons that sanctions are a limited tool unless you want to harm your own economy. china accounts for one-third of global manufacturing capacity, and if china poses a blockade, how does the west respond?

with russia it was oil. with china it's manufacturing. i think it will be very hard to impose the kind of economic isolation on china that it has tried with russia. >> the book is called punishing putin. appreciate your time. >> thank you for having me. it's just after 7:00 a.m. on the east coast. i am andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernen and becky quick. we have a lot going on. the markets looking up today, maybe on the back of speculation that we could be getting a bigger cut than expected. that's the top story of the morning. things looking up. also, investors are waiting for retail sales data for august. and then meanwhile, some of the fina fina fina

fina financial engineering. the white house confirming reports that it's awarding intel with additional money under the chip act. and then reduction on supply, boeing cutting costs and factory workers. let's get over to frank holland. >> we are looking at bank of america adding palantir to its u.s. list, and it will be added to the s&p 500 before the bell. we are hearing from the company that will buy shares.

palantir moving up, and shares up over 1.5%. and then analysts say ubs has return on rising spend. shares are up more than 25% up-to-date. microsoft, one of the reasons we are seeing the gains in the premarket, shares up over 1.5% after raising quarterly dividend by 80 cents a share and a share buyback program for up to $60. and microsoft announced more features to the 365 co-pilot and other collaboration-focused tools. becky, back over to you. >> okay.

i can't app lovin' and not giggle. it has been around for a long time. >> i see the driver's license. yeah. >> from hawaii. >> yeah, from hawaii to buy booze. >> you said it perfectly, frank, because it made me giggle was said it. thanks, frank, we will check in later. the federal reserve kicking off its meeting on interest rates today. will they be in time to preserve that soft landing? we're going to talk to goldman sachs' vice chair. then we will have a look at a new bill introduced yesterday and how it will work. and how it will work. "squawk box" will be right back.

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with a qualifying trade-in. don't wait! call, click or visit an xfinity store today. welcome back to "squawk box." the fed's two-day policy meeting kicking off today. steve liesman joins us with the results of cnbc's latest survey ahead with the big number, will it be 25 basis points or 50? what do you say, sir? >> i don't know this helps anybody, but respondents to the cnbc survey coming to a gradual conclusion about the allocated fed cuts adding to the uncertainty of what the fed will do a day ahead of what is thought to be the first rate cut in more than four years. 96% say the fed will cut and

that's the easy part. but 84% say they will cut by 25 basis points. 3.3% is the rate, a little higher than what it has been. 60% say it should cut by 25 bps. survey says 3.7 and the 25, and the market says almost a point difference. and we believe that the equivalent of eight cuts in six meetings is more than what will happen. that forecast is more in line with a hard landing than a soft

landing. the 27 respondents include economists and strategists. they think the fed can take its time. the economy is growing faster than expected in 2024 and the fed has time to lower rates at a measured pace. that statement is backed up when we asked essentially if the fed is behind the curve. 74% said the september cut comes in time to preserve a soft landing. 15% says it's too late. forecast for the unemployment rate did tick modestly higher, and growth lower. the difference seems to center on a market view of a weaker economy both now and in the months ahead and the view of forecasters have the virtue by the data.

>> if you get 50 basis points tomorrow, and it seems like the markets are expecting or want or something, does everybody breathe a sigh of relief or say maybe things are worse than we thought? >> there's the panic scenario or the idea that this ends up creating some panic out there. depends a lot upon the communication. the fed is reasonably good at this. they can sell it like it's a down payment on where we need to go. i think the problem is that difference, andrew, when you look at the difference between the market pricing versus what the survey says. >> right. >> the market is very aggressive in getting the fed within a year's time, essentially, down to the neutral rate. i think a 50 might cause that to go even further. it picks up your idea there would be some panic, and a sense that, hey, we are doing 50 now, and maybe the new step is 50 and

not 25? >> thank you, steve. we will look at what this path may mean. robert kaplan joins us. what is your take, rob? the markets have moved the past couple of days on a newfound expectation that they think 50 points will be it, and will the% be disappointed? >> they might be and that happens sometimes. my own view, if i were sitting at the table i would be advocating for 50 in this meeting. the reason i would be doing that, i think with inflation running around 2.5% and sluggishness in the labor market, i think that over the next few months i would want to see the fed funds rate down to

four and a quarter, 4%. i think the fed may be a meeting or so late. if i had a do-over, i would prefer we started the cutting in july and not september. i would want to front-end load this a little bit and do 50, and it puts the onus on jay powell and other participants to ensure future action is more measured. >> you know the folks around that table. what do you think they're going to be saying? >> my guess is they're split. i think there will be some around the table who feel as i do, that they are a little bit late and they would like to get on their front foot and would prefer not to spend the fall chasing the economy. there will be others that from a risk management point of view just want to be more careful.

i think given jay powell's speech in jackson hole that now inflation and the labor market are more balanced and they don't want to see further weakening in the labor market, i think from a risk management point of view, 50 makes the most sense. if the group is split, a lot will depend on what jay powell wants to do. >> what do you think his predisposition is in all this and his ability to try and wrangle everybody to a unanimous decision? >> obviously, i don't know. all i can tell you is if i were giving advice, i would prefer to see 50. the other issue is i said with inflation at 2.5, i don't want -- i would like to go to 4.25, 4.50. i don't want to go below 4.25,

4.50, until we see progress on inflation from 2.5 to 2. the fed may get forced to do more than 100 and will be chasing. i actually -- what i could see happening in 2025 is the fed will hang around 4.25, 4.50 until it sees more progress and once it does it can go lower. >> what do you tell your clients at goldman about what you think equities would do in the aftermath of a 50 basis point cut or 25 basis point cut? >> i tell clients -- and i will stay away from trading people. if you are an investor, i think you should look over the horizon and understand that the fed is now going to be lowering the fed funds rate. it's hard to predict. i think it's dangerous to try

and invest based on a prediction of how fast. it's likely to come down over 100 bases points over the next couple of years, and you should position yourself with a proper -- >> we are now, what, a month and a half away from this election, and i know the election is not supposed to be part of these kinds of conversations, but is it possible the market rips to the cut and you will have finger-pointing politically about what this is doing or not doing to the electorate? >> yeah, so whether you do 25 or 50, the fed will be accused by somebody of having being political or made the wrong decision. in light of that, i think the best thing to do is decide what you think is right and make that

de decision. you will get criticized either way. >> yesterday we had roger ferguson, the former vice chairman of the fed, he said he thinks he could see a case for either 25 or 50, and he would choose 25 basis points for loft reasons, and thinks it's a wiser thing to do that you can amp things up as you go. what would you say to him if you two were both still in the room? >> so my counter to him is i would say i understand your point but my concern if you do 25 there's pressure on jay powell in the press conference to suggest they will do at least another 25 and even 50 if they need to. i feel like you are reactive and on your back foot. i would rather do 50. you are not going to regret 50. we are going to do at least 50 through the fall. let's front end load it and make up for the fact that we might be behind and then make clear in

the press conference we will make decisions in a measured way based on how the economy evolves and then we are on our front foot and that would be my counter argument. >> we will see and we appreciate you helping us through this ahead of it all. >> good to talk to you. >> thank you. coming up, former president trump unveiling his plan to built a crypto platform during a live stream on x last night. plus, what investors should watch when the fed decision is released tomorrow on interest rates. market strategist, jim paulson, back with us. he will join us. we'll be right back. the term i grew up when i was a young boy was coined the lord's work, and i grew up in that movement, and it meant you can do anything. there's nothing you can't do when you put your mind to it if you work hard enough, if you believe in yourself.

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underway. murdoch wants to handful control of the empire to his oldest son, and his three siblings oppose that change. the two youngest children, who are daughters from murdoch's third marriage share equal in the money bounty but have no control. and then we have to go to break but take a look at crypto prices this morning. bitcoin at $59,137. we'll be right back.

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the trump family released details of its new crypto plan, and we are joined with more. >> last night world liberty

financial had a big announcement. we don't yet have an activation date but we did find out who is on the exec team for the trump enterprise, and roughly what the platform aims to do. donald trump, his sons and his close friend, steve witkoff and his two sons. users will be able to borrow, lend on cryptocurrencies, and yes, the trump family is helping to launch a token but the founders are not taking the widely reported of 70% total tokens issued, a figure on what is believed to be a leaked memo from the team. 20% of the wlfi tokens will be

made available to the team. it's unclear if anybody will be able to cash out of the tokens since they are governance coins. they don't provide dividends or distributions. the token sale happening but no official day yet. the platform itself is not owned, managed, operated or sold by members of the trump family. >> there's a lot of scuttlebutt on websites. if trump -- honestly, if trump walked on water, they would say he couldn't swim.

they said baron knew about it but was a no show. >> trump spoke to a variety of topics, and what he relied on the crypto front, he didn't talk about the project. he talked about how he was brought into the sector and talked about his nft selections and his sons are well-versed in the space and talked about the need for energy to support ai and the robust crypto infrastructure here in the u.s. we heard from other members of his family and from steve and his two sons with respect to the project itself. >> was it really cringe? his stance on crypto evolved, and it was called rat poison but

was not bullish on it and lately, it was -- was it cringe? that's a word my kids -- that means bad and really uncomfortable? >> up to your point, trump has found a base of supporters within the crypto community because of how well-versed he's on topics like mining and not wanting to have an sec so hostile to the industry, and in this project in particular, he's not -- he's not polling all that way with the crypto communityn terms of the project there are a lot of concerns around the leadership team, and that's

where the concern lies. to your point if this was cringe worthy, i leave that up to how people felt in response to the discussion last night. he just didn't talk about the project. i think that was one of the biggest concerns. it took the last five minutes to get material details. >> i know very little. i know just enough to be dangerous. if a crypto expert started throwing questions at me, i guarantee my answers would be cringe. if you were to do that, you know so much more. i wonder because it was a lead story. looking everywhere else, i couldn't find anything that really describes it as that cringe worthy, but maybe it was. thank you for all that. >> thanks, joe. coming up, we will talk markets coming up with jim paulson, and then the fed's

decision impact on real estate. decision impact on real estate. we will talk to him after this and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley

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bit with the gains. the dow and nasdaq have been sort of tracking each other. earlier they were both up triple digits and now you can see 70 points, and the s&p moderated its gains. jim pole sun, author of "paulson perspectives." when was the last time you were on? i am trying to think of the last time you were on and what you were saying? >> a couple months ago. >> i want to tell you what you said back then. >> i don't know if i remember. >> at that point you thought we were in the early stages of a secular bull. >> yeah. >> do you still think that? >> i do. i think it has been an interesting bull market because of the fed. >> i didn't look that up. i don't listen to everybody.

that's a compliment. >> i appreciate that. i think this is the only bull market we have had in postwar history, and the thing i am a little excited about is we are finally going to change that now and the fed is going to finally ease and it will feellike the start of a bull when they are usually easing rather than two years in. normally -- normally at this point the fed would have been easing to come out of the recession and get the bull going and then two years in we would be talking about the fed should tighten now, and we are doing it backwards. i think the bull will act differently, too, where you will see broader participation going on and probably the mega cap stocks lag and the other parts of the market pick up.

we get fed easing and we still have disinflation. i think the big thing is we finally restore confidence a little bit, and another missing element since the pandemic is constant pessimism. if that picks up, the impact on the stock market historically from the rising private sector and rising confidence is huge. >> i think you can explain why the market was rising because it was the fed slowing down the economy above trend. you could say the supply -- the post pandemic supply chain inflation, that was going to moderate whether the fed raised rates either way. if the reason they were raising was to slow down a good economy -- the market should go up if there's a good economy.

and i think jay powell after staying at zero for long, got into a sweet spot to do this. >> if you look back historically, this was the only fed that eased while the inflation surged almost all the way to the peak and then tightened since it's coming down. fortunately, all the other economic policies did the opposite. as the fed was waiting to tighten, money growth collapsed and bond yields went from half to 3.5%, and the dollar rose. there was a lot of tightening that broke inflation, and then the fed started tightening and all the others started easing, and bond yields have stopped rising up over that period of time. >> yeah.

>> i think they were offset by some of the other policies. >> the only thing that would concern me is we have gotten our move in the tightening cycle and there's no reason to get another move in the easing cycle. >> i think there's some move in that statement. we are getting aspects, as i said, we have never gotten. we never lifted confidence yet. we are seeing evidence as we are nearing the fed easing, and that's a big thing that helps the stock market. we also have never had full on monetary growth, which we are going to get. we still have positive real gdp growth. i think there's a couple elements where we have been absent where we will help the market, the broader aspect of it. >> it would help if people didn't feel strapped. wage gains now are able to be real because inflation is down

to 2.5%. the wage gains were not keeping up with inflation where it was. people went to the grocery store and said i can't buy what i bought last year for the same price. >> yeah, you get the surges of inflation and i think it's like that every time. i notice it. you go out and eat, and you think, holy cow, i have to pay what? once your mind catches up to where things are, and just over the weekend i filled the tank up and gas over there was about 3 bucks and i felt like i was getting cheap gas again for the first time in a long while. i think we will catch up to prices. the mortgage rates went to 7. a lot of things. some of that will change. if we get optimism -- if you look back where bull markets end, joe, bull markets do not end when the populist culture is

pessimistic. they almost always end on euphoric attitudes and we are a long way from that. >> okay. >> even with the dow hitting new highs and mag 7, some of the amazing advances we have seen from those stocks this year? >> it's amazing. i agree. what we are doing on the restoration is amazing. the mag 7 stocks are 30.5, and we have taken 4 percentage points out of it, and something that was 30%, and the s&p is still on a new high. that tells you we are correcting this while everything else is going up. that's a pretty good result so far. >> are the vikings any good? >> we are 2-0, and we just beat the san francisco 49ers with our new quarterback.

>> their best player was out. >> well, our first pick -- >> yeah, their running back was out. i don't know what his name is. mccaffery, something like that. >> it cost me money. >> thank you. >> lot of good memories. thank you for having me. >> last time it was july when you were on. >> from the state of the first runner up, tim walz. >> i was going to ask you about him, because i couldn't do it. you have been a long-time lefty and i knew you would say it was great, and the jazz hands make me uncomfortable. the whole thing. coming up, the ceo of the new york fed board member, and he will join us to talk about the health of the commercial real estate sector. that will be next. then, upcoming the election, we will debate who will be

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welcome back, everybody. the fed meeting begins today and the central bank's interest rate decision will have a big impact on the next guest's industry. scott is the chairman and ceo of rxr. nobody is watching this more than the real estate industry. >> yeah, the difference between 25 and 50 basis points is not that relevant, and you have seen the 10-year come from 5% down to 3.6%, and the s&p all high, the bond markets are open and we

have seen that start to flow through. whether it's 25 or 50, the fed's in a position where they will take a more measured approach, is my guess, in terms of not doing anything that will surprise the market. >> what have the loosened financial standards do for the real estate market? >> remember, we expected the $1.5 trillion of debt starting to come to the market -- >> is that by the end of next year? >> by the end of 2025, right. it could be somewhere up to 50% needing some level of equity infusion or some level of debt restructuring. by loosening the financial markets, as that starts to mature, it has now positioned banks to take more reserves and

allocate capital to be in a position to have a different approach to this -- >> this does not feel like a crisis to me at this point. there will be level of prices. >> this does not feel like a crisis at this point. there will be people who take a big haircut and lose their shirts on deals they did that they shouldn't have done. but it seems like there's private money that will step in at the right price and shore those things up. this doesn't feel like a crisis on a state or a national level. >> i agree. i agree. and i think if, again. there's a continued ability to keep the markets loose interms of financial markets and access to capital, the capitals will come. and i think as a private investor, there's sort of a generational opportunity to invest, because the banks are on the sideline. you have this gap where you need equity infusions into properties that are good properties, with broken capital structures.

in an economy that is relatively stable, that you can then come in and reequityize that. and that's where you're starting to see money start to flow and take advantage of that opportunity. >> that's something you're doing in a partnership you've put to together, too. how much money do you have to deploy? >> for us, we have an office recovery vehicle, which is a little bit more contrarian, and that's the one segment sector of the real estate market, where you haven't seen capital flow back to. >> because people aren't back at work. >> in new york, they are. >> we're not back to where we were in 2019. >> this year, probably, we'll have leasing volumes in midtown manhattan back to 2018 lefvels. people are coming back to the office. you saw amazon's announcement yesterday, but people view the structure as going through a big structural change. multi-family and housing is where -- >> let me ask a little bit more on commercial real estate. if you expect that midtown

manhattan will see the leasing levels we saw in 2018, what about pricing on those leases? is it at the same levels as well? >> the face number is the same level. the amount of concessions, the net affect ranked is still down. that's where you need to see the inflection point of enough demand where there's not enough supply and you can have some pricing power. it's really asset-by asset. there's still that flight to quality. 80% of the vacancy in new york is in 30% of the buildings, so there's going to be a lot of buildings that are competitively obsolete as you go forward. it's a stock picker's play. >> what type of concessions are you talking. free toilet paper our don't have to pay two months rent? >> free toilet paper would be good. it could be 12 to 18 months rent. the biggest thing is cost to rebuild space could be $150 a square foot, where it used to be $50, $70 per square foot. but in the higher quality buildings, particularly in

midtown, there's a secrecarcity large blocks of space. as those spaces come due, tenants are grabbing those spaces. we've invested close to $1.5 billion in equity into office buildings in new york. and then have negotiated new deals with banks, reduced basis. our bigger challenge, we've gained a space leased before we get the restructurings done. that's part of the challenge. but i think more broadly, the housing sector and playing in what i'll call credit solution, part lender, part partner, to help re-equityize that segment is really where the big opportunity is going to be over the next two years. >> it's a little bit of a contrarian play. it's interesting that you're really doubling down on this. >> what's interesting is, when you think about this play, first, i would say, it only right now works in new york. the other cities have not seen people come back to the office like new york. and second, you really need to understand the nuances of each building, each submarket, and, you know, be able to have not only the capital, but the capabilities to reposition those

buildings. >> scott, i want to thank you a lot for coming in. >> it's my pleasure. coming up, we'll check on the markets ahead of the retail sales data. that's coming ahead. plus, no tax on tips. a new bill being introduced yesterday on the hill. we'll get the details on who qualifies. "squawk box" will be right back. you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able

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has become a big issue on the campaign trail and a new bill has details on how it would work and who would be eligible. emily wilkins joins us now with mo more. >> harris and trump have both backed eliminating taxes on tips, but a lot have kept the details on their plans vague and any proposal will need that congressional approval. so we now have a detailed plan from congress, specifically congressman steven horseford. he's a democrat from nevada. that's the same state where both harris and trump announced their plans. horseford's bill would eliminate taxes on tips for workers making

$112,500 or less. workers would need to be in specific industries where tipping is common. think things like food and beverage service, cosmetology. the measure would also eliminate the $2.13 sub-minimum wage for tipped workers. now that means that tipped workers would now mean to make at least the federal minimum wage of $7.25 or whatever the minimum wage is in their state. now, tips income would not be fully tax free. it would still be subject to payroll taxes that fund social security and medicare. and like horseburg, harris' campaign has said that her bill will set an income limit, although the campaign has not officially said what that would bean. her campaign added that harris would push for an increase to the minimum wage. now, trump's campaign so far has given even fewer details about whether higher-income workers would be eligible for the deduction. of course, horseford isn't the only lawmaker to introduce a bill to ban taxes on tipped income. of course, senator ted cruz also introduced a bill to do the same

thing. it would have -- his bill, now, doesn't have any limits on who qualifies for that taxes, but like horseford's bill, it does go ahead and say, hey, for the payroll taxes, funding social security and medicare, those do have to be deducted. so we're seeing a couple of similarities here on how things are shaping up on capitol hill. and maybe a couple of cues on how things could ultimately shake out. guys? >> does this really help, do you think, emily? or are there better ways to do it for the same amount of revenue that would be lost to the government? >> i mean, it's always a question, i mean, as far as benefit, exactly who can do you want to benefit? certainly for the government, this plan would cost the government about $10 billion to $15 billion annually. that's according to the committee for responsible budget. so certainly, you could play with things like what the income level would be. which groups would be excluded or not excluded. exactly which taxes would or

wouldn't be put on. there's a lot of different ways you can play with number, either to wind up benefiting the workers or benefiting the government's bottom line. but a lot of economists have come, looked at this plan and said, look, it sounds really good on paper. sure, a lot of these tipped workers don't want to see additional taxes. that always sounds good. but flthey said from a practica perspective, it's really a small fraction, about 3% of all workers who are getting tipped in the first place. and of those, you're seeing more than a third, they don't even make enough to pay those personal income taxes. so there's a big question about exactly how much of an impact this would have, and whether it's really going to help either candidate over the finish line. >> okay, emily, thank you. and sorkin, it's an explosion. it's going to pick up carryout food. there it is. what do i want? 22%, 24%, 26% for the person to pass the food across the counter to me for me to --

>> what about when you're at self-checkout and they ask you for your tip? >> that's the one that drives me nuts. not a single person in the store. >> these aren't going to be taxed either? >> no. >> do you remember what tips stands for? the acronym stands for? >> no. >> to ensure prompt service. that makes a lot of sense. you would like to ensure prompt service at a restaurant, you know, when you need something, or whatever. but that doesn't apply to any of these other things, does it? >> tipping is a uniquely american proposition. >> so you're telling me, i shouldn't be racked with guilt when i hit 0 on -- when i'm picking up carryout food. >> when you're picking up carryout food, no. you should not be racked with guilt. no. >> you don't look at the people and see if they're looking -- >> no, i do not. >> you proudly hit zero? >> i proudly hit zero.

>> if i'm picking it up myself? >> what about a pastry place? >> occasionally, if i'm at a starbucks or something and i think they're really great, i'll put it in. >> shouldn't it be sure be teps -- to ensure -- i'm bothered by -- >> you're bothered by the grammar. >> you're not insuring it, you're ensuring it. >> are you sure tips is really that, or did somebody come up with that? >> it's like the acronym for fiat. >> yeah. you can't do those acronyms. >> no, i can't. let's move on. >> zwrusit's just after 8:00 an the east coast and you're watching "squawk box." among our top stories, the fed set to kick off its latest policy meeting today. wall street widely expected to

kickoff. the drama for investors. intel shares jumping in the pre-market. lots of news on the chipmaker. it says that it plans to turn its foundry business into an independent unit with a potential to raise outside capital. intel also saying it will pause fabrication efforts in poland and germany and pull back on plans for its malaysian factory. and intel says it has a deal with amazon web services to provide custom chips for ai. and speaking of amazon, that company now wants its employees back in the office five days a week. that will start next year in january. amazon's also planning to simplify its corporate structure, by removing managers where it can and trying to slim down bureaucracy. >> meantime, take a look at the futures. we're looking at about 150 points higher on the dow right about now. nasdaq up about 118 points higher. the s&p 500, looking to open about 25 points higher. let's show you treasuries, as well. all of this on the back of some new speculation that, in fact,

the federal reserve may cut by 50 basis points, as opposed to 25 basis points. of course, we will find out tomorrow. right now, the ten-year at 3.610. i want to get over to frank collins, who's got a look at this morning's pre-market movers. frank? >> good morning, andrew, becky, joe, once again. start out with hbe, hewlett-packard sbenterprises, shares are up higher. this is off an upgrade of bank of america, moving it from a neutral to a buy rating, raising it price target . juniper networks for $14 billion. that will create cost synergies by the end of 2026. that they believe will translate into eps growth. again, shares up almost 4% right now. mizuho is initiating dell, saying it will be a beneficiary of the growth and disruption from generative artificial intelligence. the new rating outperforms with a price target of 135.

that implies a 13% rise from where it's trading at right now. the company's ai server business is the key to growth. it estimates the company has more than 10% market share in ai servers and they believe that can grow substantially based on the company's backlog and its potential to win new business. again, shares of dell right now up just about 2.5%. also going to look at redburg atlantic upgrading its rating on shopify to a buy. redburne cites the company's multifaceted moat as well as ability to win additional shares. shares of shopify up 3.25%. the analysts also saying that shopify is a leader in social ecommerce, a trend that they believe presents a $350 billion payment opportunity between now and 2028. again, shares of shopify up just over 2.5%, but year-to-date, actually trading 3% lower. andrew, back over to you. >> thank you, frank! appreciate it! >> this is just one last thing on tips. so there's actually a term for

calling it -- >> tips? >> yeah. >> a backronym. that's an acronym where it already exists, tips, and you create it after the fact, and it doesn't make sense, but it's done a lot for either humorous reasons, where you use the stated thing and from that, you say it's a backronym. damn! >> it makes sense, instead of forward-looking, it's backward looking. >> coming up, trump versus harris economic debate you do not want to miss. we'll do that in just a moment. former barack obama campaign manager jim messina and current donald trump senior economic adviser, steven moore going to be joining us on the set. be joining us on the set. that's next, don't go anywhere power e*trade's easy to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities,

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welcome back to "squawk box." the debate is about to get on, right now. 2024 presidential election just seven weeks from today.

voters weighing the economic proposals from the candidates, from donald trump's proposal to exempt overtime pay from taxes to harris' plan to say that she wants to expand small business tax credits ten-fold. joining us right now for the debate, jim messina, he served as campaign manager as former president obama's re-election campaign. he's the informal adviser to vice president harris' campaign. also the heritage foundation's steven moor is here, a senior economic adviser to former president trump. good morning to both of you. >> good morning. >> okay, shall we start with tariffs? can we start with tariffs? >> steven, i'll go to you first. i would imagine you don't like tariffs as a traditional conservative. >> yeah. >> yet you're supporting the president, former president trump. >> yeah, because tariffs have been higher under biden and harris. it's a matter of fact that

tariff researches have been higher. if you're for free trade, you want vote for trump for sure. >> but he's in favor of raising tariffs. >> i will say this, that trump has used tariffs, i saw it in his first term, quite strategically, as a kind of tool to get other companies to -- or countries to do things that are in our interest. i saw that with respect to mexico, china, and trump understands the idea of leverage, that the united states has leverage over-over country. a good example is when he used tariffs as a means for nato countries to get his dues. sometimes when it comes to tariffs, his bite is worse than his bite. >> that's a dangerous way to go down this. i hear this all the time. don't worry, it's just rhetoric.

goldman sachs compared both of the economic plans and said the democrats' plan would increase the economy -- >> let me stop you. we had david solomon on this network. he said, go read this plan. he believes vice president harris' campaign is effectively mischaracterizing with what that report actually says. >> and the criticism about, oh, there'll never be unrealized gains, never -- all of those things you just said is what's applied to most democrats that are a little bit worried about how far left kamala harris -- >> not to say i haven't quoted from the goldman sachs report either. >> i've actually read it. let's go back to tariffs. this is really important. donald trump's tariffs are going to wreck the world economy. i have 16 presidents and prime ministers as my clients. all of them are saying, what -- we're going back to tariffs. we're going to go jack the tariffs up all over the place. you know who's going to get hurt by that? the american worker. that's who's going to get hurt by that. let's be really clear about what tariffs really will do, to your

point. >> let me ask you, then, on the unrealized gains piece of this. do you think that's actually the answer to our tax problems in the united states? >> no, i don't. >> and don't you think it creates a whole number of other problems as a result. >> i live in silicon valley now. i think there's a whole bunch of questions about how you create jobs and who actually creates those jobs. i think it's a discussion we ought to have. >> because of fairness or because you need to raids money? what's the -- >> we immediate to raise money, eventually we have to fix this debt. and so letting the trump's tax cuts expire, having a real discussion, bipartisanly about entitlements, about spending is the only way we're actually going to go get this deficit and this debt down. >> okay, can i throw out a different question? >> sure. >> lina khan, as a proxy sort of representation of the regulatory regime under biden, does that remain in place in a harris

world? >> i mean, i'm not kamala harris. i don't know the answer to that. >> but how should -- the folks that are watching this broadcast think about that? i think the way they should think about that is that her term is going to be up and i don't think there will be any chance in a this-close senate that you will see people like her or gary genzler get confirmed. >> there's news for you. >> so is there any corporate tax rate that's too low? i think corporations should be taxed at zero. you should get taxed elsewhere. we compete globally, what do they say? corporations use roads and bridges too. but don't we want as much invested into innovation and whatever corporations do to generate the jobs in america, those are the people that pay the taxes that support the government. don't we want corporations to be as successful as possible? >> so we don't really have to debate about, like, what goldman sachs says or thooese -- about

what people will do to the economy. because we know. we saw what happened when trump was president, we have a four-year record, and we have a three and a half year record under biden and harris. we just looked at an analysis where we looked at the 20 most important economic measures, everything from small business conditions, to the price of eggs and groceries to the price of gasoline to what happened to real incomes. and on 18 of those 20 variables, trump's performance was superior to biden and harris'. it's not even close. that's why we want this debate over the next six, seven weeks to be about the economy. >> but jim, hold on. >> now -- >> 18 out of 20. >> let me ask you this. don't you think there was a uniquely weird situation coming out of covid? >> yes. >> the supply chain issues. >> of course, of course. >> everything else. by the way, money printing -- not just money printing. you can say that the inflation reduction act was too much money. i think that clearly exacerbated things. you can look at the money printing that went on during the

trump administration as well, and the lag effect of that that biden was dealing with. >> if that's true, if there's a lagged effect from all of that spending, why would joe biden come in and spend $5 trillion on top of it? i agree with you. i think we spent way too much money on covid. and biden puts in $5 trillion, that had nothing to do with covid. but you raed the point about the corporate tax. and you're exactly right. the reason i like coming on your show is you're talking to investors around the country. this is -- why would any investor vote for kamala harris when she wants to double the capital gains tax, tax unrealized capital gains, raise the corporate tax, which dilutes the value of your shares, because the government takes one third of the value of your shares away from you. this isn't my number. this is "the new york times'" number. this is a $4.5 trillion tax increase on american businesses and american shareholders. i've lived through walter mondale, michael dukakis, you know, hillary clinton, she is by far the most aggressively

anti-business, anti-investor candidate we've everseen in american history. >> jim? >> you said this four years ago on joe biden's stuff. may i finish? we -- are you going to let me finish? or are we going to dance? 16 million jobs created. >> half of those were just -- >> andrew, are we going to -- >> if we're going to play the comeback game, i'm not against the comeback gain. not that you're mischaracterizing, but then if you're going to say the comeback thing is real, then you can't sit around and say, well, you know, look at what happened over the last three years and covid didn't matter. >> so he's been peddling this garbage for a very long time. when i was the senate chief of staff to the finance committee, he came to the hill and said, we're going to cut all of these taxes and george bush is going to do all of this and we're not going to increase the debt and deficit. we had the largest increase in debt and deficit under his plan. you saw this all over the place with donald trump.

why people should support kamala harris over donald trump who are investors, because we just saw, if you invest in the economy, if you invest in jobs, if you invest in education, you get job growth. that is the -- that is the experience under the last five presidents of democrats versus republicans. you can't argue anything other than that. you can argue all your comeback stuff. your plans don't work. and they haven't worked repeatedly. >> so let me respond to that. i think what americans care most about is what happened to their average income. what can they afford to buy. what happened to the middle class. median family income. median family income, prior to covid, was up $6,000 for the average family. it was the biggest increase of median income in the history of the united states. >> so tariffs are going to fix that? tariffs are going to make everything better? >> we're going to do what we did in our first term, and it was a success. the other thing is, when you talk about all of these jobs and including the millions jobs they lied about in terms of creating -- as you know, they keep having to revise downward these jobs. but look, i just think that

people should look very closely at what kamala harris is saying she's going to do. and i'll give her credit, by the way. she's telling the american people, i'm going to raise taxes through the roof. >> can i ask a different question? if you assume you want lower corporate taxes, which by the way -- >> by the way, i'm fine -- >> may very well be the right answer. but then the question is, i also can't imagine you're going to say, okay, andrew, i'm cool with lower corporate taxes, but i do care about the deficit, and i'm going to have to tax people on the upper end in a completely different way. >> can i respond to that? it's a good point? under the joe biden/kamala harris plan, it would be the biggest tax cut for million nairs and billionaires in the history of the united states. they want to bring back something called the local and tax deduction -- >> i'm all for that! >> because you -- >> i'll take two! >> they're going to provide a huge tax cut for their millionaires and billionaires in california and -- >> i don't think he's answering -- >> this is kamala harris that wants to do this?

>> yeah! >> i might do it! i might switch! no, i'm kidding. >> she's going to give you a big tax cut, joe. >> if i did care about my wallet -- >> the question is how to deal with salt. >> we should sunset it over some kind of decade or longer period, and by the way, they're blue states, largely. that have these issues. but have budget issues as opposed to cutting them off at the knees. >> how are we going to compete in the global economy. we're competing with china and europe and all of these other countries with the highest corporate tax rate. the reason we cut the corporate tax rate, as you know, joe, is because the united states is way up here and we're -- >> i get hammered. >> the answer should be zero. you probably think i'm crazy. >> we'll never balance the budget. >> it's a small part of the revenue we raised. >> it's 7% of total -- >> who are going to -- >> i'm ready to do taxing loans

to people who never pay money on -- they found a company, it goes up to $500 million, they take a loan and buy a yacht and die and leave it to their kids at $500 million. i'm ready to do something. >> that's not going to fill the gap. >> neither is 3%. >> can we all agree that their tariff plan is a disaster. we can go straight back to biden. >> i don't think anyone thinks that tariffs are good. >> every time dwewe've done the they've been a disaster. there are candidates and surrogates on both levels say incorrect things constantly about what's going on. i gave mark cuban a whole lot of grief when he came on and said kamala harris wasn't going to do any of the things she said. steven, you said the same thing that trump is not going to do tlo those tariffs. if you're not going to do it, stop saying. from both candidates. >> i'm just saying, compare the records, folks. prior to covid, we had the best economy in american history. and we're going to continue with

those policies. we want the election to be about the economy and jobs and that kind of thing, not abortion, not about -- >> you also said they lied about jobs because the jobs got revised down. in 2019, jobs were revised down in the trump administration by half a million, too. >> real incomes have fallen. >> no argument there, but let's -- >> that lie pales in comparison to saying that they created 15 million jobs, when they were comeback jobs. >> agree. >> the question is if you could zero out covid across the board in some way and have some kind of baseline to be able to measure the markets. but it's very hard to do that. >> there's no question that inflation was run up by the ira. >> and pandemic related. and the reason incomes are down -- >> and if you do repeal the trump tax cut, which basically kamala harris has said, the average family in the united states is going to face a $2,000 tax increase. >> are you going to balance the budget eventually here or not? we've got to balance the budget. >> why can't -- one quick thing.

do you know, i just looked -- there was a big "wall street journal" article today on the two plans. and i looked at kamala harris' plan of dealing with the deficit. there's not a single penny of spending cuts. it's all $5 trillion of tax increase. they can't find a single program out of the thousand programs in washington -- >> that jason furman. he has a plan today, that says, both of their plans suck. kamala harris' sucks less. that's all he said. >> goldman sachs compared both of them -- >> we just -- >> suddenly we don't like goldman sachs? >> we had david solsolomon, on, said it's a 0.2% of a gdp difference and mostly about leaving the southern border open. >> and investment. >> you think americans are going to trade 0.2% of a point of gdp and let all the illegals in here. >> it's mostly. >> and what the plan said. >> $5 trillion in new taxes from

kamala harris. >> jim and steven, thank you. come on back, we'll do it again. when we come back, instagram introducing teen accounts. that news just out a few minutes ago. the platform facing scrutiny over what kind of content kids see online. we're going to talk about it with former white house chief technology officer, aneesh chopra. next, why car owners with auto loans shouldn't get too excited ouabt this week's fed meeting, even with the central bank poised to cut rates. that story is next. that story is next. "squawk box" will be right back. (girl) dad. (vo) you break it. we take it. (woman 2) we can take it. (vo) trade in any phone, in any condition at verizon for the new google pixel 9 with gemini. (man 2) give me a recipe hes. (girl) let's do that one. (vo) only on verizon. at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions.

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the fed kicking off its latest policy meeting today with central bankers widely expected to cut rates by at least 25 basis points, but that might not mean very much for those carrying some auto loans. would 50 mean much?

phil lebeau joins us now to explain. hey, phil. >> it will eventually help, joe. that's the good news. the problem is that auto loan rates, they don't fall as quickly as the fed cuts rates. they do eventually fall, as the interest rates go down, as the fed cuts rates, but it's going to take a wile. here's where we are right now in terms of new and used auto loans. the average according to edmonds in the month of august, 7.1% for new, 11.3 for used. when you look at cost of the automobile, in terms of how much people are borrowing, it's close to a record high. the amount borrowed, $40,719, the monthly payment, $737. the economist does a wonderful job tracking what happens with interest rates. these are sticky. they'll stay evaluated for some time. when you look at the sales

impact on this, we're already noticing that. what's happened over the last couple of months is that auto va sales have lagged. at pace of $15.1 to $15.4 million. they're still expected to come in at $15.8 million for the year, but they'll have to pick up in the last four months in order to hit that, otherwise we'll fall shy of what we saw last year in terms of total sales. take a look at gm, ford, stellantis. we could show you almost all of the auto stocks. they've all reflected the fact that these sales should be moving higher. and they're not. they're sort of stuck in this period here between 15.3 and $15.5 million. they've increased their incentives substantially. up 49% compared to the same time last year. that has helped to a certain extent grease the market a bit and get a few more people to buy a vehicle, but you really do need these auto loan rates to fall, before you start to see a real pickup in sales, i think, personally. because you're not seeing the price come down as much as

people would like to see in terms of new vehicles. >> okay, phil. thank you. >> you bet. >> we are just a few seconds away from august retail sales numbers. we've been watching the futures ahead of that, and they've been up across the board this morning. dow up by 120. the nasdaq up by triple digits, just over 100. s&p is up by about 22 points, too, and remember the dow closed at an all-time high yesterday. rick santelli standing by at the cme in chicago. rick? >> we are looking for our august retail sales numbers. these are advanced. that means they're going get modified and fine tuned in a couple of weeks. the first numberp 0.1%. we're expecting a negative number. the reason, because last month, we were up a whopping 1%. that was the best going all the way back to the first quarter of 2021. now, before i'm done, there may be some revisions, but that was a good number. and we haven't taken any back

yet, at least in terms of the new advanced look for august. you strip out autos, it remains up 0.1%. many were expecting it to be a little loftier than that, but do you remember, also, in the rearview mirror, we have up 0.4% and up 5.5%. these have been rather solid reads. if we strip out autos and gas, it still remains good, up 0.2%. one could argue, we're expecting a little bit more in the rearview mirror once again, up 0.4%, prior to that, it was up 0.8%, which was the best going back to january of '23. then there's what we call the core retail sales or the control number that gets input in other economic statistics, higher up the food chain. that remains a very solid, up 0.3%. and prior to that, it was up 0.9% in june, and that was the best going all the way back to january of '23. now, there are revisions. upward revisions. we see last month's get revised

from 1% to up 1.1. and we see the core number move from last month's, up 0.3 to up 0.4. we could use the slowing labor market as a reason to ease. the fed is looking for reasons to ease. but these numbers certainly don't build a case that the consumer is, with you know, on the side of the road with nothing left. we see that there's delinquencies, we listen to what phil said in pasinterest rates, even coming down a quarter point. even coming down a full point, as they do over the next 9 to 12 months, isn't going to take pressure off those who need credit, because this two-speed economy still has those who need credit. and the fed, no matter what they do in interest rates, it's very hard to target that group. we see that yields have moved up a little bit, but we're still basically at 15-month closing yields. two-year closing lows going back to september of '22, in a

two-year, and our last batch of guests really nailed it. the democratic side of that discussion said, wow, we really have to fix the debt problem. they're currently in office, sir. why don't theydo something about it. becky, back to you. >> rick, thank you. steve liesman joins us right now with more on that front. and steve, interesting point rick makes. look, it may not be the most important number the fed is watching, but if you're looking at these numbers today, it's the last number they're getting before they decide what to do of stronger than expected headlines. revisions upwards to retail sales from last time. does that factor into what the fed is going to be thinking today? >> i agree with almost everything rick said about it. it's a solid report. and even more so, becky, rick usually gives the control group, i think i can give you that. i think i saw you up 0.3. and the key there is that's the number that feeds into the gdp calculations. where were we before? we were thinking it was a 3% quarter. so this really gets to the whole

fed debate right now, which is, do you really need to cut 50 basis points and show that you're really concerned about the economy, when you're coming along here at a 3% gdp rate, maybe even higher, once they plug in the revisions, as well. and the consumer's not giving it up. my take on this number, becky, is it's a bit all over the place. we do have a little sort of running problem with seasonally adjusting for among other things, prime day in july, august is a little squirrely. so you have a bit of up and down with a bunch of the data here. let me go back to the actual number. what you find is electronics and appliances were down 1.1%. hang on, yes, right. down 1.1%. that could be a bounceback from -- or a bounce down from july. you had a bunch of negatives, gasoline station sales down, because, why, because the prices

were down. you have non-store retailers up 1.4, miscellaneous up 1.7, but clothing down 0.7. so all over the place, becky. but ultimately, i think the story here is that the retail sector remains relatively strong. no real sign of the consumer giving it up on a broad basis, and feeding into a decent gdp number that's going to be part of the dilemma for the fed when it makes its decision. >> steve, thank you. >> sure. >> okay. >> coming up, mark reaction to the new retail sales data and what to watch for in the fixed income, as the fed begins its latest meeting. but first, as we head to a break, check out shares of microsoft this morning, the company increasing its quarterly dividend by 10% and announcing its board has approved a new share buyback program worth up to $60 billion. that stock on the move this morning, as well, after a big move throughout the year. move throughout the year. we're coming right back.

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er. joining us now on the marmarket s as the fed kicks off its latest policy meeting, oksanna

aranoff. it's good to see you. thanks for joining us. you're unsettled a little bit, i think, about what the fed is ready to embark on. and i think you would say 25 makes more sense, because inflation, they're ignoring some recent hot numbers, as if they've conquered inflation. >> correct. i mean, i think i would say that a cut is not necessarily even warranted, given that we're not really seeing a broad-based weakening outside of a more reasonable labor market, right? labor, or unemployment rate of 4.3% is certainly well within the fed's own sort of 5% target, which they consider neutral on unemployment. so we went from extraordinarily tight labor markets to sort of a more normal. but outside of that, you know, this morning, again, another beat on the retail sales, and we continue to see just broadly, the economy is doing fine. these rates have not been as

restrictive as the fed, i think, expected at the short end, and making them less so is going to probably loosen financial conditions further, which are already the loosest they've been since before the fed started fighting this inflation. >> i just don't understand why we can't have a definitive answer as to whether we're restrictive or not. someone like you can say, they shouldn't even cut. others are saying, they're so far behind the curve, they should do 75 basis points. everyone is looking at the same data, and you can come to completely polar -- well, polar opposite is -- opposite is enough to say. but opposite conclusions. >> i think everyone is looking for what they want to see, but objectively speaking, even on the inflation data, right, when we were sitting here in june of last year, and cpi year over year was 3%, and everyone considered inflation moving towards 2%. we're sitting here 14 months later, where is cpi, 2.9%. and by the way, there was a lurch towards the high 3s in

between there, right? so i think it goes to show what we've been saying all along, which is that we are going to be stuck in this churn for quite some time. and the fed expectations are moving up, from 2.6 in march, to 2.8% more recently. and i think that will continue to be the case. they should move quite carefully here. 25 is probably enough to buy them some time, to see some more data, and unless we see really a decisive move towards that 2% inflation, which i think will continue to be elusive for a number of factors, not the least of which is the amount of fiscal spending, which is not going to stop. it's going to continue unabated. >> and they should worry about wall street's reaction. that will probably be disappointing at this point, 25 basis points. >> and if that's really what's guiding them, that's really not the right incentive, right? they seem to have dispensed with sort of price stability or at least put it on the back burner right now, and they're focusing on the unemployment picture. but again, outside of unemployment, which is simply

slightly more normal. you're not really seeing broad-based weakness. gdp was revised higher. like, the economy is continuing to chug along. there's really no impetus to be alarmist here. >> and it's nice to have something in the tank, isn't it? >> exactly. >> if there is a downturn. >> exactly. >> so do you -- people are expecting 150 basis points, 200 basis points. >> that's what the long end is pricing in right now. my question to the broad-based industry-wide in asset management is what are you going to get from that. the ten-year is already pricing in something like 200 basis points of easing, right? so unless you have really a pretty significant recession, that's wildly overdone. so i would say that that's a trait that's run its course and you should be moving towards different types of opportunities. >> so if you were j. powell, would you stay right here, if you were -- if you could make this and you would stay right here and see what happens? >> i would stay right here and see what happens. there's no shocks to the economy

right now. they may come. and you want to have plenty in the tank. there's nothing pushing him towards making significant moves here. and isn't this similar to ea'21 a a early '22. like, haven't you learned your lesson that you can't claim victory until victory has been achi achieved. >> so you don't think we're in the middle of a lag period where the restrictive -- if we are restrictive right now, where eventually that is going to -- you could be overcooking the restrictiveness? >> not in the data. are we restrictive at all and so.

>> so you're not seeing. walmart, target, costco, all of those earnings came in fairly strong. you're just not seeing this broad-based weakness that would necessitate this kind ofaction from the fed. >> i wonder what caused -- i think we have all been conditioned to just love lower rates. >> and easing -- and -- >> absolutely. that's -- >> that's not the real world, though. >> that's what 15 years of extraordinarily unorthodox monetary policy will do to a market. >> so people who have never known anything other than main lining cheap money into their -- >> and when they think of normalization, i wonder if they realize that the average fed funds rate historically has been around, you know, the mid-5s. if we exlclude the 20% extremes in the 1980s, we are not familiar away from it. even if the fed continues with cutting, and this is really important, if they get us into the high 4s, or mid-4s, number one, they risk reaccelerating

inflation, i think. and number two, that's still very high par and cost for a lot of corporate balance sheets that are kind of junk balance sheets that are simply not going to survive. so i think credit volatility will continue. bond volatility will continue. and the fiscal dominance that we are seeing from whichever administration takes over the white house, that's just going to continue. that's going to keep a floor on the long end of the curve. >> i am so easily convinced. they should not cut right now. i think maybe they should raise. i should never be on a jury, because i would be the last person that -- you know, if the defense spoke, i would let them off. if the prosecution were the last to speak, guilty! throw away the key. life! did she -- what are they doing? thank you. >> thank you. when we come back, a lot more on squawk podcast. instagram announcing new accounts for teens. will they move the needle in terms of providing kids with

more privacy? we'll talk about it. former white house chief technology officer aneesh chopra will be weighing in on all of that. plus more, right after the break. "squawk's" coming right back solving today's challenges while creating future opportunities. it takes balance. cla - cpas, consultants, and wealth advisors. we'll get you there. ok, here is your paperwork, if you want to review it and make sure everything's in order. these factory floormats, are they really as good as weathertech? you know, laser measured? [suspenseful music] no. nothing comes even close to laser measured weathertech floorliners. they offer the ultimate protection. front, back and even up the sides. for a full line of premium american made products order at wt.com

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meta out this hour with news on trying to make instagram safer for teens. the platform is introducing an automatically placing teens into teen accounts, which will limit the content that they see and limit who can contact them. parents will be able to put teens' accounts into sleep mode to politic notifications overnight, and they'll also be able to see who their kids have been messaging in the past week. this all comes against a backdrop of increased social media scrutiny, as just one example, the surgeon general is now pushing a federal plan to add warning labels to social media services. joining us right now is aneesh chopra, arcadia chief strategy officer. he was the white house chief technology officer under former president obama. and aneesh, tell us what you think about this.

ly just say, may quick reaction to this in reading through it was, okay, they're doing something, but seems like a little little, too late. and they're not even including facebook as part of this. what gives? >> this is definitely -- let's call it helpful, to be polite. but insufficient. as the father of way we govern media platforms. we've been debating over a decade whether to impose more privacy protections trying to find ways to balance section 230 and because congress hasn't yet resolved, although we're getting closer, markups on bills this week, we have much more to do, and i'm happy to talk about what is essentially all hands on deck effort to address the surgeon general's important warning. >> let me add a little more to this, a little more context that ticks me off, too. they are just doing this now, after being in business for 20 years, just doing this now, and it's probably not a surprise that it comes after the july

30th passages in the senate of a bill that would create many more protections for kids online that was passed by a majority of 93 votes, so very strong support there. it may be taken up by the house and meta's reaction to that is that oh, we're okay with some regulation, but we would prefer it just be parents sign off and approve things before kids are able to download apps, as if all the responsibility should be there and nothing on them once again. yeah. there's two layers of this cake beyond these base controls and protections. one is, is there going to be an additional duty to mitigate the harms that we've now been seen well documented. that adds in a bit more accountability to what is today kind of a voluntary here's my best efforts, folks. i'm not required to do these things, i'm doing it out of the goodwill of my heart, so do we want to have a higher floor? i support such a thing. and then the more fundamental question with emerging technologies in general, i've

been calling for and we've been discussing this in the past, more collaboration where the industry works with stakeholders to understand almost in real-time, like a learning, you know, kind of social media impact system, what's actually happening on the ground to teens with cyber bullying and concerns about body image and concerns around privacy protections, inappropriate contacts online, how do we look to see whether those outcomes are happening, and it ter rate on galgorithms. we're not seeing that action. >> can i ask a question about that, to say we blame meta and the social media platforms all the time and i don't think they should escape blame, but one of the groups that seems to get a pass all the time and by the way, i love my device, is apple and google. and the protections for parents are, you know, they're there in

some way, but they're so complicated, so difficult, the kids, including my own, know how to get around them, oddly enough, and it's shocking to some degree in large part because they build such beautiful devices, they have great software, so many other realms the software is so great and, yet, the software as it relates to protecting children from all sorts of things or being able to control some of this stuff is almost terrible. >> yeah. andrew, let me cut to the chase. the underlying data on these systems that are not visible to the hardware devices at the center of this problem. so how our kids interact, the algorithms pump them with more content related to what they interact with, that virtuous downward spiral -- >> kids under a certain age shouldn't be able to have access to some of these apps to begin with, and yet they can, because apple makes it too easy. >> well, great question.

so in the -- one of the commitments they made today this idea you can self register account under 16 teen. the bill is before congress. the house is marking up this week would actually create much more pressure to do age ver if ication. it's a great point whether you do more of that at the hardware layer in the app store. we're having a discussion with ftc around open marketplace app stores. putting more burden on app stores and apps is a bit of a tradeoff in what you're describing. fundamentally, how age verification works when kids try to get access to apps needs improvement and that area is an area that today there's very little obligation. you know, the children online privacy protection act that's going back 20 plus years. we have to update that. that's part of the hearings this week. >> let's see what happens with regulations. you think the house will actually take up the vote on this bill that passed so overwhelmingly. this was bipartisan legislation

that was put out i think marsha blackburn, the republican behind it, and blumenthal, the democrat behind that legislation. will the house pick it up? >> we feel confident as someone who helped president obama on the original internet privacy framework in 2012, i wish this was happening a decade ago. i'm cautiously optimistic. let's go to the root cause of the problem. these platforms change rapidly. we don't know enough about how they're affecting our kids, so i am asking for and calling for more collaboration, so they don't have to do this but sharing with researchers and engaging, learn those harms and address them, that's got to be part of the discussion. not in the bills, that's something [ inaudible ] legal frameworks that can be done through collaboration. >> aneesh, thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. >> coming up, some top stocks to watch as we head towards the opening bell on wall street. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm frank holland. we start with intel popping on headlines. shares up 4.5%. intel plans to turn its foundry

business into an independent unit with its own board. sources tell cnbc it might spin it off. intel announcing it will produce custom ai chips for amazon web services. airbnb this morning, a bernstein note came out today showing a short-term opportunity for airbnb. shares are up, but still lower than the company's price target. previously 174, now 155. about a 30% upside from it's trading right now. analysts say the stock's 20% decline in q3 creates an attractive entry point. a warning on walmart from btig saying he sees imminent potential for a pullback in the stock pointing to the technicals with walmart more than 25% above its 200-day moving average. according to his research only happened one other time since was to and after that the stock fell more than 20% not long after. year-to-date the shares are up more than 50%. joe, becky and andrew, back over to you. >> thank you. we're going to take a final check on the markets.

141 points higher on the dow. nasdaq looking to open 20 points higher and the s&p 25 points. the treasury boards what's happening here i think is the speculation we'll get a 50 basis point cut. >> i want to know what fed futures moved on the retail number now it's back to 25. >> 25 yeah. >> but the market is up can the market -- >> join us tomorrow to find out the answer. well, the next day you'll find out the real answer. we'll be back tomorrow. "squawk on the street" begins right now. good tuesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer is at one market in san francisco, dreamforce kicks off today. s&p looks to take aim at some record highs at the open following the dow's all-time high yesterday. retail sales solid. fed meeting begins. plenty of mag seven news from microsoft to meta to amazon. our road map begins with the fed