the entire market cap of all of these companies combined is only $3 trillion. i like ieo. >> let's keep our eye on the markets and i'll see you on "closing bell" with those highlights. "the exchange" is now. ♪ ♪ and welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here's what's ahead on fed cut eve. we've got the last major data point before the fed decision tomorrow, and it seems the market is kind of ignoring it. retail sales showing the consumer is still strong, even arguing for a quarter point cut, but the market is meanwhile getting more bullish on 50. the probabilities just keep rising. one thing is certain, this is the most uncertain fed meeting in almost a decade. so with 24 hours to go, we'll game out what's next. could mortgage rates go up if we don't get a half point cut? the ceo of rocket company joins

us with what he's expecting and how it's impacting business. and our mystery chart, we mentioned retail sales. our analyst sees several names at or near inflection point with upside from here even if things slow down for the holidays. anyhow, this is one of the beneficiaries, already more than double this year, and it's not too late to get in they say, that's all ahead. let's take a quick look at the markets with the reversal in stocks in mid afternoon trading. we're now lower pretty much across the board except for the russell 2,000. keep an eye on that. we'll expand on that later on. the dow and s&p hit highs earlier in the session. the dow down by 66 points, the s&p by 7. and the nasdaq is plus or nigh m -- minus the punchline, and the russell is outperforming. treasury yields are moving higher throughout the session, but the yield on the ten-year

touched the lowest level sense june 2023. it is true the volatility of rates has almost being as high lately as it was in the worst of the 2022 rate hiking cycle. so keep an eye on this, 3.64 or so for the ten-year. crude prices are also rising once again, with wti hitting the highest level in two weeks, back above $70 a barrel. you just heard the bullish calls from josh brown on the energy sector. again, about a 2% pop higher today. let's begin with the fed's decision on interest rates and steve liesman who has the results of the very latest cnbc fed saurvey. >> the survey coming to a more gradual conclusion about the outlook for fed rate cuts at this meeting and down the road, adding to the uncertainty we go into this meeting a day ahead of

what's supposed to be the first rate cut in more than four years. 96% say the fed will cut, one say it won't. 84% say it's a 25, saying the fed going down to 3.7% next year, relative to a 3.3% neutral. they see the fed remaining restrictive through next year. as what the feds should do, 56% say it should be a 25. here's the difference between the fed survey respondents and the market. 4.6% by the year end '24, markets are now 4.1. so a big difference here that is hard to explain, but the 27 respondents, including economists and strategists, on average they're just not forecasting the economy will weaken and think the fed can take its time. saying the economy is growing faster than expected in 2024, and the fed has time to lower

rates at a measured pace. is the fed behind the curve? 74% say that september cut comes in time to preserve a soft landing, 15% say too late, 11% say too early. forecast for the unemployment rate did tick higher, but both in line with a soft landing, not a recession. they think the fed can get it done with a 25 this time. >> i don't know if you saw the headline that say rate markets say a recession is coming because of how many cuts are priced in. does that have to be rece recessionary to cut rates by two points do you think? >> it does not. when i look at the comments that came in with the survey, they see the whole course o as being the fed reacting to a recession. they think if there's no recession -- i mean, look, atlanta fed, which is not my favorite, just printed a 3%

third quarter gdp forecast. our cnbc rapid update, still in line in the same area. it's just hard to see, all right, and one of the people -- one of our forecasters said, you mathematically can't get a recession until the first quarter. so they believe the fed will be measured in that context. >> steve, stay right there. my next guest says the fed will only ease by a quarter point but have nothing to lose by going big with a half count cut tomorrow. joining us is stephanie roth, chief economist at wolf research. stephanie, it sounds like this is -- i think they'll only do 25 but should do 50 kind of thing sp >> yeah, i think that's fair. they don't have anything to lose. we have rates sitting well above neutral. neutral is close to, you know, 3% in our view, so they have a lot of time to be able to cut rates. so if they go 25 or 50, probably doesn't matter. the important thing is they're starting off the cutting cycle,

which they should be able to do. and the economy is starting to weaken, and they don't have to worry about the inflation side of the mandate. now it's about the employment side. whether they do 25 or 50, at least they're getting started, and these cases that, you know, they do the 25, but it's a really tough call at this point. >> steve, i think they should go 33, and get rid of the range, and that brings the -- no more range. you say we're cutting to 5%, and you're welcome. >> well, with a person as many kids as you have at home, the idea that you're looking for compromise to make everybody happy does not surprise me. i also did that as the middle child in my family, looking for compromise. in any event, i think the key is going to be 25 with a forecast of more to come. it will be interesting to see if they forecast a full 100 for this year. that would be something of a solve to the market if they only get a 25. and what they forecast for next

year. so those dots are going to be an important part of the communication, as will the statement. we'll see how aggressive the fed ends up forecasting in this statement, which i like to follow carefully. as much as anything, that's a reflection of what the full committee can get behind. speaking of the full committee, there's an issue, i'm interested in our guest's view on this, whether or not the chair would have unanimous support on a 50. >> stephanie, what do you think? >> yeah, i think it's very possible. we'll see a dissent or two. powell is supportive of the 50, perhaps that's some of the new stories we have seen over the past week or so is reflecting the leadership's view. but is he going to get support of enough folks that they can go through with a 50? which why they are calling for the 25, because it will be difficult enough to get a quaur rum. so they'll go with the 25 and get everybody on board.

if they go with the 50, it's possible they'll have dissent along the line. >> were you struck as i was, or am i missing something, that the retail sales report comes out. we can talk about the consensus, but we know the whisper is that it was going to be weak. i've heard people talking for three weeks that this number would be weak. the headline i think was up 0.1% from july, the core up 0.3%, so the gdp sort of -- that puts gdp at 2.6% annualized in the third quarter. i think clearly this is going to make the case for 25. i ask for market odds and they have risen to 65% for a 50. what am i missing? >> yeah, so what we have seen over the past number of months is that the credit card data, which a lot of people use to help forecast what's going to happen has an understating, perhaps some of it has to do with immigration and people not on traditional credit cards are

spending, and that's lifting the print to some ex-pent. but we have seen the data underestimate what will happen. so we got a decent consumer spending number. consumer spending has been checking well above trend. the market is just looking for this 50 basis point cut. whether or not we get it doesn't matter so much, because if they do a 25, they will do it dovishly, so perhaps there's too much emphasis on this debate between 25 and 50. but our base case is the labor market is okay, too. so realistically this is what a soft landing looks like. and it's going to be up to whether the 12 people in the room who are voting are going to be in support of this 25 versus 350. >> an interesting wrinkle about the retail sales. steve, there's either seasonal distortions because of immigration, unauthorized or so forth, and it's just sort of a data point we need more clarity on. steve, what were you going to

say? >> there's fast money and there's slow money. fast money cares a lot about the 25 versus 50, and they're going to come in tomorrow and express their pleasure or displeasure. from a long-term investor point of view, follow the guidance and figure out where the fed is going in and listen to the answers from the chair about why they're going there and how far they have to go. these are the things that will be ultimately determining bond and stock prices over time, apart from the gyrations you're going to get at 2.000 when that statement comes out tomorrow. >> it's going to be an interesting afternoon. but thank you both. really appreciate it. steve liesman and stephanie roth with wolf research. i mentioned we have rick santelli standing by in chicago with the results oh it have 20-year auction top of the hour. the market's least favorite, rick. >> yeah, it's the least favorite but the only maturity over 4% on the entire yield curve.

and least favorite or not, if you're a fan that you think interest rates are going down and the fed is going to start a big easing cycle, whether it's the odd ball or not, you're getting your 4.02% and your biannual dividends. 13 billion, reopen. 13 billion, the yield 4.039. the problem? that's two basis points higher than the one issued market. so higher yield, lower price, government's the seller. i gave it a d as in dog. none of the metrics are very good. the tailing of two basis points is not good. as kelly pointed out, it's not the favorite on the street. but as an investment, if we're really going to see a cycle of easing, and it seeming as though we are, because kelly, i completely agree with you, anybody that was beamed from another planet, looking at retail sales, looking at all the inflation numbers the last year, will be scratching their head. our guest said if it's a quarter, they're dovish.

if it's 50, they will be -- if it's 50, it will be dovish, if it's 25, it will be hawkish. if they do anything, i think they're crazy. there's no reason to lower rates now. we need to shake things out. the equity markets are making new highs. the problem is, that doesn't matter what the data is. the market is the fed. i don't think that's a good way to proceed, but that's the way it is. >> the one area where i think lowering the rate 25 or 50 could have a big impact in the margin is hiring. if job hiring is slowing and layoffs are starting, they're not terrible, but -- >> do you really think a quarter or 50 is going to make a big deal in hiring? i don't think so. >> it's going to help on the margin and that could be enough to just keep the labor market chugging along. >> yeah, the only thing i see at the margin is that we have marginally more spending every quarter, and sooner or later,

that is going to be the only thing that matters to the market. and the fed easing isn't going to make the deficits go down. >> no, it's not. we'll leave it at that area of agreement. rick, thank you. rick sansantelli. my next guest says the market has backed the fed into a corner. let's bring in michael landsberg. michael, welcome? which corner, michael? >> i agree with what mike said. i think we're positioning for what is going to happen, not what i would like to happen. we're going to see 25 basis points, but the market has gotten to we're going to have 50 and they're going to be disappointed. 50 doesn't give us a lot of room, because people will say what has the fed not been telling us? 50 is typically an emergency cut, and i'm not sure why we would get that given the data we are seeing, stock market at

all-time highs. >> first we had the retail sales report, better than feared. then we had the market increasing the chances of a 50-point cut. i don't get it. then i see stocks selling off as those 50 odds go higher. and now i really don't understand. maybe you can explain. >> yeah, unfortunately i think there's a little bit of a scenario when the cpi was going to come out, the market rallied. i fear this is the same thing. it seems when there's a bigmac r -- big macro event, markets move. so it seems like folks have gotten theinformation early and markets have made huge moves before the data comes out. i hate to say that, but that's what it looks like. >> i wasn't watching the tick by tick, i'll take your word for that. if that's true, we'll hear more about it. but i meant after the fact. we have seen stocks turn lower throughout the morning as we

have had a chance to digest the fact that consumer spending is on track and we might get a half point cut and somehow they're upset at this outcome. >> if it's a 50-basis point, it's normally an emergency. what is the fed not telling us? are there some things they're seeing we don't know about? that's what the concern is. if 25 is more quarterly, we can get our heads around that. 50, what does that mean, something that's out there that we don't know about? and we're going to run into something down the road that the fed sees that the rest of the market isn't seeing. that's the concern. >> if they do 50, telling us that things are not so rosy. i don't know if you have small caps in your portfolio. we have to talk about the russell's outperformance happening today, it's been happening on a one-month and three-year basis. the russell 2,000 is up alwhile

the nasdaq is negative. small caps seem like they're suddenly the place to be. >> well, small caps haven't been a place to be for 3 1/2 years. so we have a little bit of a small-cap exposure. when you look at the index, it has so many companies that aren't profitable. it's a place to be a stock picker. i've considered owning brands to be a small-cap name, it's a $7 billion market cap. obviously, they're a play on the glp. but you have to look at where we've been. small caps have underperformed for such a long period of time, making highs in november of 2021. we're seeing some life here, but i'm more of a fan, i would like to see them have some outperformance because i go more broadly in small cap. obviously, if rates continue to lower, that should be good for small caps. but in a large-cap space, you

have to be more defensive. defensive has worked the last two months. >> before you go, you said that's a go-1 play. aren't they the maker of the protein makes. >> the number one way to lose weight is lose muscle mass. ready-to-drink protein is a way to play that to get more protein in people. we think it's a way that has a lot of legs as more adoption of glp-1 drugs gets this there. we think they're a winner giving the expansion of the drug. >> i didn't realize you had to build that muscle as you lost the weight. michael, thanks. we appreciate your time. i guess the last thing i would ask you, are you positioning then for 25 or 50? or will stock picks do fine either way? >> overall, we think you're in an environment, rates are going

lower. you want to be overweight in gold and some of the defensive names. we like insurance, as well. we still think inflation is not going away, but utilities, real estate, will be good areas to be there. last month's cpi, the two big things were insurance was up 15% year over year, and drinks were up 18% year over year. that's bellring and constellation, a name in the beer space. we don't see that inflation going down. >> we'll leave it there. thank you for your time, michael landsberg. don't miss our sperl cov -- special coverage of the fed decision tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern. we'll speak with senator warren, who is calling for 75 basis point cut and senator kennedy. that goes from 1:00 to 3:00 eastern. coming up, don't be fooled by the better than expected retail sales number. one analyst says there's

potential for a weak holiday shopping season this year. we'll look at some defensive names to own. plus, rocket companies is hovering near its highest level in three years. with 15 million mortgage above the 6% rate, could tomorrow's rate cut spark a wave of refinancing? we'll talk about it with the ceo. here's a look at stocks. there's the russell outperforming. the nasdaq trying to turn positive. the dow and s&p down, 364 on the ten-year. back after this. >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc.

let's say you're deep in a show or a game or the game. on a train, at home, at work. okay, maybe not at work. point is at xfinity. we're constantly engineering new ways to get the entertainment you love to you faster and easier than ever. that's what i do. is that love island?

welcome back. retail sales did surprise to the upside this morning. you can see we had a big gain the prior month to build on that. our next guest is looking for positive survises this the sector. digging deep to find some lesser known names that are at key inflection points ahead of the holiday season. one is already up % in the past year and thinks that runs continues. joining us is dylan cardin. dylan, welcome. >> kelly, thanks for having me. what is is the key inflection point some of these names are facing? >> so the second quarter was interesting in that a handful of our names really did see a material inflection in metrics, primarily comm as it relates to retail. a lot of that has to do with some names that saw a much

better 2020-'21 period. so you're kind of coming out of the wilderness for a lot of retailers. and for others, you know, it's been a longer journey of recovery. so it's really -- i think we're just broadly seeing this performance where there's opportunity to do some real stock selection. and as it relates to inflection points, i do think that defense makes more sense in this market versus necessarily offense. and inflection can be a really defensive play in that you consider you're comping more against yourself rather than broader market. and i think we are in a situation going into the back half, where i wouldn't use the term "weak," but if you look at

the consumer, inflation is moderating but still growing on big numbers. and the fact that you're seeing a lot of retailers increase or normalize their inventory levels, you're looking at a soft holiday period where i would rather be in defense. >> what makes people a little nervous, these are also fashiony and trendy, and it's sometimes hard to be confident, other than kind of following tiktok and see what all the influencers are doing. of all the names here, boot born, torrid, chewies, duluth, boot barn is the only one that's positive on a three-year basis, up 73% this that time period. if i'm a defensive sort of minded retail analyst, should i just stick with that winner and maybe, you know, stay away from some of the others? or would you see it as almost the opposite? >> we do get the pushback all the time that oh, we missed it. this happens any time boot barn

is up any period of time. the narrative is always, that's a trade missed. boot barn, of fashion risks, they stand aside in that 70% of the business is footwear. 80% of what they sell is on auto replenish. the narrative got a little overextended that it was a yellow stone or taylor swift kind of trade. what always saves the stock, and why i think you never saw it collapse like you did chewy, is they had capacity to double their store count in eight years. they have a growing margin, so you're looking at 20 plus percent earnings growth over the next three to five years for a stock that trades in the low 20 pe range. so all of that is still relatively dynamic as it relates to continue to own shares. i think, you know, as the -- the question on do you sort of not

buy others as a result of that continued success, you know, my view is that you make money in the shadows where people are more cautious. chewy has been one that people -- forward is another one, no one has been able to figure out the plus side margin. so i think you're more inclined to buy into those budget stories now. >> that's really interesting. on torrid, you upgraded to outperform, seeing the nice comp print in the second quarter. that could be an infleck shub point. chewy, active customers grew for the first time in a year. torrid, you say maybe this is a little more baked in, evaluations are higher. warby parker is one where you see an inflection point in the gross margins. >> for me, warby hasn't had a

growth problem per se, it's been around the low double digit range as they've been growing stores. the real question for me is what they'redoing is trying to be a more wholistic, optimal retail business. as you shift into some of these categories, those have a relatively significant drag on margin relative to something like a progressive lens, right? and so their gross margins for past couple of years have been in steady decline as they have been shifting into these newer c categories. this is encouraging because you can start to see where margins might net out. if this is a company that can keep gross margins in the low 50% level, you know, you're looking at 150 base points of expansion per year, which can be

compelling in the early days of margins still being relatively low. >> sure. your market perform on them, especially in duluth's case, still a long road ahead. but i'm not getting the sense where you're looking, you're seeing a consumer in the early stages of significant pullback here. >> yeah, you saw retail numbers today. i think you have to contextulize them. department stores are down, furniture is growing very nicely now. and similar to the inflection point, they're all different stages of the market. so i think we're just looking for opportunity for the narrative to shift, in and around a narrative that's pushed to the negative realm, whereas companies that have themselves to beat are a better place here.

i think we've been here for three years, second guessing a recession, and it's just more nuance to it. >> literally three years, we have been trying to figure this one out. and yet the debate continues. dylan, thanks. appreciate your time today. >> absolutely. some retailers are trying to find inflection points through more unorthodox means. morgan stanley writing this morning that walmart plus prescriptions tripled, giving members 25% off meals. and elf cosmetics is announcing an album "get ready with music," the first project under their entertainment arm. and chick-fil-a reportedly developing a streaming service with help from hollywood producers. and then starbucks announcing starbucks studios back in july. we'll see if that survives new

management. all of these retailers saying their catalyst for growth are coming outside of their business. still to come, the salesforce ceo's keynote address is underway. the shares are unchanged today. he's saying, we want to be your future as a service. we'll monitor that meeting and bring you any more news with a look at his big bet on a ifx. and let's check on shares of u.s. steel, down about 2.5% today. the ceo speaking at the detroit economic club, describing the national security review of n mpthon steel's bid to buy e coany is robust. "the exchange" is back after this.

wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked and inconvenient injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly. from lexarias, patented oral delivery technology trials. lexaria bioscience, transforming the future of glp-1 drug delivery. (woman 1) all right, here we go.

lexaria bioscience, transforuggggh.e future (man 1) oh no, no, no, no, no, no! (man 2) what's my next step? oh! ugh. (girl) dad. (vo) you break it. we take it. (woman 2) we can take it. (vo) trade in any phone, in any condition at verizon for the new google pixel 9 with gemini. (man 2) give me a recipe with these ingredients. (girl) let's do that one. (vo) only on verizon. welcome back to "the exchange." markets are kind of in a holding pattern right now, but the dow and s&p touched all-time highs earlier. the nasdaq is back in positive territory by 29 points and the russell 2,000 is the leadership today, outperforming on a one-month and three-month basis. the housing etf, the xhb, is

hitting a new all-time high and on pace for its eighth straight day of gains. that's its longest streak in over a year, a period during which it's been quote a strong performer. an individual names like these are all notching some record highs of their own today. in fact, the retail etf -- real estate etf i should say is the best performing sector etf over the past month. you can see it here, climbing well into overbought territory, though, with a relative strength index of 80. this indecision is now at its highest -- index is now at its highest since december. now over to tyler mathisen for a news update. prosecutors say they will seek to have music mogul sean diddy combs detained without bail while he awaits trial. prosecutors said in a letter, he was a flight risk who poses a threat to the community with a long history of trying to bribe witnesses. combs' lawyer said early this morning that combs would plead

not guilty. he's due in court this afternoon. former president donald trump's white house chief of staff, mark meadows' effort to move his 2020 election case to arizona to a federal court has been denied. the judge said meadows missed a deadline to file the request. lawyers for meadows, who pleaded not guilty, did not respond for comment. and coffee and tea drinkers rejoice, drinking two or three cups a day could protect against type ii diabetes, heart disease and stroke. drinking 200 to 300 milligrams of caffeine were less likely to develop those conditions. drink up. >> i go back and forth. i do coffee, then i get off it, then i'm back. >> i'm a lifer. >> did you start drinking coffee wher you were 10 years old? >> 7. i was in second grade, i was

falling asleep in class so my mom gave me coffee. see you in half hour. coming up, the ceo of rocket companies joins us with his read on the housing market, warning that if the fed only cuts by a quarter point, we could see mortgage rates climb in the short term. we'll ask him why, next. versabank is a fully digital, cloud based bank embarking on a transformational

opportunity in the united states. we recently closed the purchase of a u.s. bank, which gives us full access to the u.s. market. that's very exciting for us because now we can launch our receivable purchase program fully in the united states. what we developed it in canada, and it was very, very popular. as far as we know. there's nothing else like it in the united states. your shipping manager left to "find themself." leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. sponsored jobs on indeed are two and a half times faster to first hire. visit indeed.com/hire >> i had 20 years of experience as an hr professional and i had reached a ceiling, so i enrolled in umgc. i would not be the person that i am today had it not been for the partnership with umgc.

welcome back to "the exchange." mortgage rates are still hovering and their lowest levels since last february, february of last year, around 6.1%. but my next guest says they could go up in the short term, even with a rate cut from the fed tomorrow. joining us in a first-time cnbc interview is the ceo of rocket companies. shares are doing well lately, near a three-year high, i think. why could a rate cut make mortgage rates rise? >> thank you, kelly. great to be here. i think the good news is today we've got a great rate environment for clients who are really looking to jump into the business. and so a lot of that rate cut is already baked into the market. so that's the reason you see the

interest rate environment where it is. you know, the good news for us, we're really focused on meeting our clients where they are, and we have seen an increase in demand for refie and purchase. and the good news is, for those folks waiting on the sidelines, looking to jump into that home purchase, this really helps to lock in a rate today. >> i look at 6.1%, and we all know when that rate goes below 6, the headline also be everywhere, the buyers will be a little more excited, at least a little bit. if they go 50 tomorrow, this could -- i know we always talk about the price off the ten-year. it's not the fed funds rate that matters, and maybe you know the formula better than i, it's the ten-year yield, plus or minus the spread, which is historically high right now. >> i think look, a50-point would be a nice thing for the rally of the market. i think we'll see demand increase, as well. but that's going to be the big question as the fed weighs in terms of unemployment versus inflation. the thing i would share is over the past two years, we have over

6 million loans out there that are over 6.5% on the interest rate. and so the good news is, a lot of those clients are sort of -- have the potential to be in the money. and we're happy to serve them. this is a big focus for us. we're growing our share in any rate environment, whether it's the previous conditions or what we're seeing now. so we're focused on increasing the scapability of our platform, meeting clients where they are, and delivering an ai experience that reflects who rocket is. >> if spreads were at historical levels, the mortgage rates would already be in the 5s, wouldn't it? >> you have a lot of folks out there that have interest rates between 5 and 7%, and so the good news is, as the markets rally, we just have an opportunity for many of them to come to rocket, you know, look at refinance and have an amazing experience. >> a lot of traders have been looking for stocks to play on a rate cut and rocket gets mentioned. my question is, how much delta

is there? sure, it's a catalyst and we have biuyers and refi demand coming in at the margin, but it's not transformative, is it? >> we had our investor day event last week, and the two things we focused on are, we want to double our purchase market share from 4% to 8% and we want to increase our refi market share from 12% to 20%. the reason we feel confident this that, which would lead to $275 billion in production in 2027, is the power of our technology investment of we have something called the rocket super stack, composed of four layers. it's the servicing fly wheel that allows us to serve clients for life, the multichannel experiences that allow us to be wholesale, direct to consumer and work with enterprise partners. it's the proprietary ai investments we have made on top of that and a brand that clients trust that's why we have

confidence in our ability to grow in any market. >> although, i think about your ads from a few years back, which i always enjoyed, but how high are your customer acquisition cost? is that through marketing or what other opportunities do you have, and how costly are those? >> yeah, i think there's basically two approaches that we have. we are very focussed in our marketing approach, as well. we have a full funnel strategy, we have a deep client segmentation, a core creative idea that we're working on, and ultimately a fly wheel created when your brand and performance marketing dollars work together. that's been a big focus. the second thing is what we call our origination servicing fly wheel where we help our existing clients with new mortgage products and offerings, allowing us to have a home equity loan with the ability to reserve thor clients at a lower cost.

so the combination of that working together more efficiently and leveraging our servicing book to create long-term relationships with clients, that's our growth strategy. >> get those shares back up to where they were five years ago, quote or quote the old normal, that kind of environment. thank you for joining us to explain. good to check in with you. >> thank you. bf we head to break, check out shares of applovi, up more than 40% since last wednesday. ubs hiking the target to 140 from 100. they're bullish on the execution in gaming and relative spending. it's up to are fsh all-time high. we'll have a check on some of we'll have a check on some of the other big movers, nextoguar? -cologuard. cologuard!

-screen for colon cancer. -at home, like you want. -you the man! -actually, he's a box. cologuard is a one-of-a-kind way .to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45+ at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. ♪ i did it my way ♪ you'll find them in cities, towns and suburbs all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in

your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. plus, with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan you'll get other important benefits. all of these plans include dental coverage. with two free cleanings a year. plus, fillings, and a yearly exam. vision coverage, including eye exams and a yearly allowance for eye wear. and hearing benefits. including routine hearing exams and coverage toward hearing aids. you'll also get free rides to and from medical appointments. best of all, you'll pay nothing for covered prescriptions, even brand name ones, all year long. and zero dollars for many routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. plus, you'll have access to

humana's large networks of doctors and specialists. so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call now to see if there's a plan in your area that will give you extra benefits, including an allowance to help pay for essentials. plus, no-cost for covered prescriptions. and coverage for routine dental, vision and hearing. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. and, if you're eligible, help you enroll over the phone. it's that easy! call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. welcome back to "the

exchange." express scripts is suing the ftc over that july report, which claimed pharmacy benefit managers are hiking drug prices. cigna says the report is unconstitutional and advances a false and danning narrative and demands that it be withdrawn. the ftc is standing by its study, saying in a statement, it's committed to using its authority to clarify a "complicated and opaque market." the ftc found in july the three largest pvms manage roughly 80% of prescriptions, something the regulator says gives them the ability and incentive to prefer their open affiliated businesses, which can disadvantage unaffiliated pharmacies and increase drug costs. shares of all three are lower today, cigna fairing the worst, just a day after hitting a 52-week high. but pushback from corporate america against the regulatory

agency. coming up, salesforce and other software names are under pressure this year. can they adapt and thrive or struggle to survive as the gen ai boom continues? that's next. over 90% of cobalt used in batteries comes from china. electra battery materials, awarded $20 million by the u.s. department of defense, is bringing the battery supply chain home, reducing dependance on china and revitalizing our industrial base. electra battery materials.

the moment i met him i knew he was my soulmate. and revitalizing our industrial "soulmates." soulmate! [giggles] why do you need me? [laughs sarcastically] but then we switched to t-mobile 5g home internet. and now his attention is spent elsewhere. but i'm thinking of her the whole time. that's so much worse. why is that thing in bed with you? this is where it gets the best signal from the cell tower!

i've tried everywhere else in the house! there's always a new excuse. well if we got xfinity you wouldn't have to mess around with the connection. therapy's tough, huh? -mmm. it's like a lot about me. [laughs] a home router should never be a home wrecker. oo this is a good book title. ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." speaking of regulatory pushback, we have news from elon musk now and spacex, steve kovach with the story. steve, explain. >> hey there, kelly. yeah. elon musk just putting on x or posting on x, rather, that he plans to sue the faa for overreach. this comes after the faa earlier today put out a press release saying they -- they're proposing more than 633,000 dollars civil penalty against spacex. this is related to some of the communications and licensing plans during some cape canaveral launches, it look like.

again, i just note, elon musk threatens lawsuits and so forth all the time. this doesn't mean there is a lawsuit. it doesn't mean there's going to be a lawsuit. but this is definitely him pushing against or back against rather this regulatory proposal to find spacex, kelly. >> steve, thank you for bringing that to us. steve kovach. meantime, salesforce ceo marc benioff delivering the keynote speech at his annual dreamforce meeting. he wants to offer future as a service. the shares are down 2% on the year while the s&p is up 18%. deirdre bosa has more in tech check. he is on the back foot here with ai, deirdre. >> he is. he's trying to make the case that he's on the front foot. but he is nothing but a showman and the ultimate salesman. he opened up the conference about an hour ago with a huge keynote just down the street from here, welcoming tens of thousands of customers to san francisco. telling them to look forward to performances from the likes of pink and imagine dragons.

but, kelly, beyond the glitz and the entertainment, benioff acknowledged this is the most important dreamforce ever. revenue growth at salesforce hit its slowest pace in over a decade. investors, they're wondering if salesforce, along with other sass companies like work day and adobe wonder if they'll thrive or be replaced in the age of generative ai. so far software has been left behind by the shift. here is benioff himself on the stakes. >> we want to be the first to welcome you into the future. we want to be the first to welcome you into the future. and we look at our salesforce platform as your future as a service. we want to future proof you. not only in your careers but your -- >> benioff says that agent force is what he's calling it, agentforce will be the key, that's a set of products capable of taking action on their own to out mate existing crm tools, basically like a chat bot for everything that salesforce already done.

something or someone that could help convince his customers that his company will benefit from the ai rush. there's an appearance from the king maker of ai jenson wong, nvidia ceo himself will be at dreamforce later in a second keynote with benioff. i'll be there watching it. if you have jenson wang to show up at your event, one tick done. in the thousands and thousands of the people who have come here are no doubt eager to see him. big question, will he help convince investors that salesforce can thrive in this stage? >> i'm a fan of pink and imagine dragons myself. but let me ask you this, deirdre, you mentioned adobe, shares are down 12% on the year. salesforce is not alone in this. but the ceo of carna said he replaced salesforce and work day using ai and made earlier comments using ai to streamline his work force, trying to get down to just 2,000 employees. marc benioff said i don't believe it. what tools is he using. nevertheless, if he's true and

if this bears out and if other companies are experimenting in this direction, it's a major problem. >> you know, those comments have caught a lot of attention. ibeen thinking a lot about them, too. because you can see how you could replace eventually sales force and a work day with an ai agent, the ai agent that benioff says will be so useful. however, kelly, i will say, i've talked to a number of people here in the bay area in tech about what they're doing if they see a world -- tech companies see a world in which they can get rid of salesforce and workday, those comments were really provocative and quite a stretch. clarna is a public comment. i feel like the narrative or the consensus i've heard is that they were overreaching a little bit, but i mean, that is sort of the existential question for many of these saas companies. you bring up adobe, a really good example. they released firefly, their idea of incorporating generative ai into everything they already do. it just hasn't been successful

in convincing investors that they're going to be leading in this race. you had the gen-ai, open ai, mid journey create those products with very little friction and their platform agnostic. you could see a world in which this happens to many ore software companies. >> adobe is smart, won't be lawsuits for using its images. we talked to sebastian from clarna before. we should bring him back to explain what's going on internally. dear ra, thank you very much and we look forward to hearing more from benioff. don't miss "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern as he weaves that into his very business afternoon. our special coverage of the fed decision live from washington, d.c. tomorrow. from 1:00 p.m. eastern on, we'll speak with s.e.c. chair gary gensler, senator warren, senator kennedy and the creator of the sahm rule, claudia sahm. that does it for "the exchange." tyler is getting ready for

"power lunch." i'll join him on the other side i'll join him on the other side of this break.♪♪ [inner monologue] in this gig... you get comfortable being uncomfortable. ♪♪ the enemy is always adapting... deepfake: hey handsome. ♪♪ [inner monologue] ...always iterating. ♪♪

with gold and copper prices pushing towards all time highs, us gold corp. offers investors leverage to both gold and copper at its project, and mining friendly wyoming. u.s. gold corp has a reserve of almost 1.5 million ounces of gold equivalents. permits to mine zero debt with only 10.73 million shares outstanding and a portfolio of world

class american strategic metals assets. u.s. gold corp, join the golden age. since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise] ♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch." alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen. glad you could join us. we're 24 hours now from the fed decision on interest rates. the odds are still somewhat split on whether wwi