bank in the country, you can't have a relationship with the mid-sized bank. >> we have a whole depth of the internet thesis. that in-person touch really does go a long way. >> it does. just like this. i want to close by saying thank you for having me. >> thank you for being with us, brent. always good to see you. you always add so much to the conversation. and thank you all for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts now. we'll see you tomorrow in washington, d.c. i'm mike santoli in for scot wapner. he just finished with jeffrey gundlag. wall street in suspense, a rare degree of uncertainty on the fed's next move within 24 hours of the decision. hoping to hold the indexes in check, just below record highs. here's the score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the s&p 500 touched an intraday record high before the rally leaped away.

you see it down by 1/6 of a percent. the dow and nasdaq have been flat most of the day. russell 2000 is the standout as traders execute the playbook ahead of a fed easing policy. the russell 2000 up 9/10 of a percent. banks are well off the highs earlier in the day. energy higher, oil prices bouncing off of the two-year lows set last week. consumer stocks are well bid, following a detailed sales report this morning while tech continues to lag as it did yesterday. it takes us to the talk of the tape. what should investors make of either a half or quarter point rate hike tomorrow. where does it leave a market priced for a soft economic landing. sherry young, private adviser is here to talk about all of that. cheryl, great to see you. >> great to see you, michael. >> how are you thinking about the scenarios, what the fed does, what the market expects?

how we should react, and what it says about the economic environment. >> the markets are pricing a 50 basis point cut tomorrow. >> mostly. it's almost a coin flip, but yes. >> we're seeing it fade, and that's probably why. i'm expecting 25 basis points. a data girl. the data does not support 50, so i think we'll see 25 tomorrow. but, look, i'm also a long-term investor, and i really care more about the trend than what happens the next day. if you're an investor, you care what happens over the next year. >> you call them speculators. plenty out there watching. you say you're focused on the data. what particular data says 50 would be out of bounds. i ask because it seems like a lot of the reports and chatter and the commentary in the last few days has been directed at building a case for why the decline in inflation to current levels and just how high rates are compared to that really do allow for more roomto ease up

front, with a 50 basis point cut, rather than waiting and going small. >> you could make the argument they should have cut in july. i think that's part of the pressure on the feds tomorrow. they really should have cut in july. look, stock market touched all time high today. unemployment is still at really reasonable levels compared to long-term, although the velocity of the last year is why people are considering the 50 basis point cut tomorrow. gdp is strong. we don't see recession ahead of us. things are softening and i expect gdp to still be 1 1/2 to 1.7 next year. we're not seeing that decline go negative, and unless we see recession territory, we just don't want to get really too far away from controlling inflation either, which is a balancing act. we have to keep that inflation in check. >> that would net out to a pretty positive view on the economic back drop. if you really think there's time and, you know, if you cut by 50 basis points, you're above 4 3/4

of a percent. it's not as if you've all of a sudden stimulative. i guess the questions are are the stakes high, do you think like we're in a decent place either way or vulnerable either way? >> i don't think we're vulnerable. i think we're in a decent place either way. either choice is going to be a good choice. no chance of a no cut. that would be the disastrous scenario where the markets would react big. 50 basis points does potentially put some question mark at what data are they seeing we're not seeing. are there more signs of bad news ahead, and i think that's the reason we will get a 25 basis point cut. either one in the long run is not going to move the needle that much, and we expect five rate cuts over the next 12 months, whether they do two in one tomorrow or stretch it out, either way we're going to get to the same effect next year. >> and there's going to be plenty of guidance and the fed's formal outlook to chew on after the fact to get a sense of what they envision in terms of pace. retail sales this morning were okay.

i guess you would say no incremental reason to be further worried about the consumer even if it wasn't a gang busters number, and in terms of the market, you've had this phase where kind of more defensive groups, rate sensitive areas of the market have overperformed and you're finally get consumer cyclicals catching up. the rules have been, the winners have not done a lot since july. ic i think you were concerned about the concentration of the market in the first half. where does that leave you now? >> when i was last on with scott in june, i was really concerned about the price, especially of semiconductors. that sector has had a 25% selloff twice, august 5th to august 7th, and again around september 6th and it has bounced back off lows considerably. however, semis tend to lead, and you really have to pay attention to how they're moving so that double bounce off the bottom has me a little bit concerned. valuations were really high. if you look at valuations in the

tech sector, it's double that of the rest of the s&p 500. we want to see this broadening we have seen come into place since july has continued for a healthy mark. when you have 63% of the returns come from seven stocks, and with 61% last year. this is not news. this has been going on for a long time. there's just a lot of concern about how healthy the economy is. over half of the market, if i look at the s&p 500 is still 48% surrounding. still negative year to date as of right now. that's not the healthy market we want to see. we want to see the broadening continue, but my concern also is if i look at utilities for example, that's a more defensive play, and we've had a huge rally there. there are some names that look like tech p rations that doesn't fit with what utilities should be trading at. >> it's been a noisy stretch the last couple of months. let's bring in liz thomas, and malcolm ethridge.

a cnbc contributor. talk about the degree to which we feel like it's going to be a major swing factor in terms of how the economy breaks and how the market adjusts to it? >> i think it is going to be a swing factor in the market because there's not certainty about what they're going to do. this is the first meeting in a really really long time that i think we're going to go into it, really not knowing what's about to happen. so that in and of itself is likely to be -- >> someone's going to be disappointed. somebody's going to be wrong. that's a new experience we're having as investors. at that period of time, i say this all the time, the period between 2:00 and 2:30 is the most dangerous time to trade. they've made the rate announcement. that's a dangerous time to be playing with the market. the decision of 25 and 50, i think they should do 50. it would be out of character to start with 50. it would look big, be aggressive, so to speak, based on their history. if they know that they need to

do that at some point, if they know they need to get to a certain point before the end of the year, why wait, and particularly, why wait until the day after the election results. hopefully results come out. why wait until then and be k accused of being political. the labor data has disappointed them. it's gotten cooler more quickly than they expected issue given unemployment has over shot the yea year-end target. 25, 50, and three 75s in a row. that was really aggressive. why not get it started with 50 and manage the messaging. >> it's worth remembering that they have been on hold since july of last year. at 14 months, that's an unusually long period to keep rates at cycle high. over that time, and the reason the 50 basis point chatter has probably kicked up, you know, whatever, maybe there's leaks, people deciding to try and kind

of push the debate in one direction or another, is that 5 1/4 to 5 1/2 on the fed funds rate, increasingly looks out of whack with all the things you mentioned, the up turn in unemployment, where inflation has gotten to. with the s&p up 18% this year, you are starting to see, like 60 plus percent of all stocks, it's not as if the market expects bad things from the economy. we're not priced for a further downturn, it would seem. >> which would send the message the market could absorb it. maybe it would have jitters initially, if the 50 was a surprise to people we're expecting, 25. the market right now, seems to me to be priced for a soft landing. we're almost pricing that in. you've got small caps outperforming the s&p over the trailing three months, the sectors leading are rates driven sectors. some defense sectors, dividend sector, anticipating further

drops in yields. the market is telling us it has resiliency under the surface and the average stock is doing okay. the economy still doing okay right now. i'm of the mind that we're actually just making a stop in balanced territory on our way to weak territory. right now, we're balanced, and that's okay. and the market continues to be resilient, and there's buying power out there. that's another reason. i think the fed can afford to do 50 tomorrow, and we have to manage the messaging around it, and that messaging being, just because we did 50 today, doesn't mean we have to do 50 every time from here on out, but the risk of only doing 25 and having this big gap of time between the september meeting and november 7th and having all of this data roll in cooler, and them looking too far behind, that risk is higher than doing 50 and trying to manage the message. >> malcolm, where do you come in on this, in terms of which is the choice that is likely to lead to the least regret down the road?

>> yeah, i think liz's point about needing to get it over with and go 50 now is sa a good one. it's a safer bet, the more son census bet, right, if we listen to the remarks coming out from the fed officials who have tried to front run this thing. they're not all on the same page. the easiest way to get to a son census is to go 25, rather than the more extreme case at 50, that doesn't necessarily mean we see a whole lot of bad today. we're just trying to be data dependent once again. the more impactful way to go about it is to do 25 here, see what happens, and maybe go 25, 50 the next one. >> you don't think that the past four, five days of people kind of laying out the case for why 50 wouldn't be a panic move and it wouldn't really be because of some kind of an urgent emergency that the fed is responding to,

you don't think the markets could live with that as a message? >> i don't. to your point, we have been in this holding pattern for 14 months now where we haven't seen cuts at all, which is unusually long. a big shock to the system would be an interest rate cut, anything bigger than the smalle possible cut. it's tough to put it back once the tooth paste is out of the tube. >> in portfolio terms, what does it all mean right now? what would you be telling clients about where we are in the cycle, whether you feel like this bull market is in a fragile position, are we okay? how should we set expectations for the rest of the year? >> yeah, you know, it's really -- >> sorry, malcolm, cheryl is going to join in on that for a second. >> sorry, malcolm, we'll give it back in a second. i think you have to ask yourself

in these juxtapositions, whether something has materially changed. fed fund rates is at a 23-year high. jobless numbers at a three-year high. you have to k look, and say yes something has materially changed. what has worked for the last two, three years, i would love to say i love my technology stocks. if i sold them all, i'm going to get crushed in taxes. clients would kill me. you have to think about the tax effect. you have to think there's some rotation. technology has been on a tear. the valuations are too high, and the story has changed. what has done well during a flat rate environment or a rising rate environment, which is what we have had in the last decade or two years, has not performed well during a declining rate environment. >> malcolm, i know you're an owner of big tech stocks, you can weigh in on what we were saying before about the portfolio approach, and also, microsoft, for example, out there, one of the leaders for

years. >> i think now is the set up. we have been asking when is the rotation, the broadening for more than a year now. you could make the case that it's time to rotate into financials and energy and so forth. an accommodative rate cycle, it allows for tech games that haven't anticipated to the level of the hyper scalers to actually now borrow to invest in artificial intelligence because they don't have the fortress balance sheets to do it on their own like apple. hp, ibm, other names that need to invest in refreshing their hardware today and integrating ai into it. they can get ahead to where the customers looking for the baked in ai solutions later, and so i just don't think it's necessarily a fore gone conclusion that today is the day or tomorrow is the day that we say we turn away from tech all together. and maybe it makes more sense that we're broadening our holdings into the tech sector more likely. >> if we're going to get a full rerun of the whole internet run up, we need leverage to capex if

tech. that was a big part of it in the final phase. you suggested you're in this kind of delicate equilibrium in terms of the economy sort of slowing to a point where you think it's going to lead to a downturn. is there a way to avert that. is the bond market telling us that's a done deal? >> the bond market and stock market have been sending conflicting signals. usually people rely on the bond market more. is there a way to avert that? i don't know that there's a way to avert that. when we look over history at the times when in a cutting cycle we have pulled off a soft landing. both of those periods, that was happening into a strengthening labor market. unemployment was 7%. another time at 5.6%. both times the unemployment rate was falling. that's not the case today. when you think about just where we are in the economic cycle and

the fact that unemployment seems to be on the up swing, and we're just at that balanced place where we have one job open to every unemployed worker, that makes me concerned. when you draw correlations, the unemployment rate rises dramatically in most cutting cycles, except for the two periods when the labor market will strengthen. i don't think conditions are present for that to happen. >> i'll circulate a position, 2019, categorized as a contingent soft landing because they did cut, and i don't think that the yield curve predicted covid. didn't play out long enough to know how it was going to go. liz, cheryl, malcolm. thanks. let's send it over to seema mody. >> hewlett-packard shares are surging after bank of america upgraded from buy to knneutral.

it believes the valuation is compelling and sees a slew of cost cutting and a recovery in the ai market, shares up 5%. moderna among the biggest gainers on the s&p 500 today. the drug maker says it's updated covid-19 vaccine has been approved for use in canada. stock sup about 4%. >> thanks. up next we'll take you live to the future proof festival where jeffrey gundlach, what he thinks about ai and private credit. we'll hear from simeon seigle. live from the new york stock exchange, you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "closing bell," let's send it over to scott wapner after speaking to jeffrey gundlach, what did he have to say one day before the fed. >> we hit a number of topics. i asked the question on everybody's mind, what is going to happen tomorrow? >> i think we get 50 tomorrow, and i think we're going to get another 50 by year end, end of '25, in the middle. so that would be 125. so it would actually be five cuts between today and the december meeting, inchlusive. >> given that outlook, i asked jeffrey what his best investing strategy is right now. there have been some suggestions that this is going to be a great time for fixed income given the fact that interest rates are expected to come down. here's what he said about that. >> i think you have to be extremely careful of your

positioning. what i mean by that is i think long-term treasury bonds will fall in price as we get further along into economic weakness. they won't go up in price. they'll go down in price. of course the fed will cut rates aggressively, two-year, three-year, five-year treasuries. we have one of our best performance years ever, going across the firm. and one of the reasons is we have been committed to the idea that the curve was going to deinvert. we're in essence, over simplifying, we're short the long bond, and long, two-to-five-year treasuries, and it's going to keep working. it isn't that you're losing money on the long-term treasuries right now, but you're ma making much more money on a duration of adjusted basis on the short-term ones. that's the way we're positions. >> unlike many, jeffrey gundlach has made this whole ai craze.

and he said unequivocally, at least in his mind, it's a bubble. >> ai is exactly the same today as the dot coms were in '99. terrific long-term potential. tremendous overinvestment, and excessive belief that it's all good, there's nothing but good. and then you get the crash, and the ones that survive end up to be world beaters. i think that would happen in ai. the over investment in ai is just astounding. >> and finally, i asked jeffrey about one of the hottest areas over the last couple of years in credit, that being private credit. everybody's been talking about it. financial advisers have been getting their clients into it. it certainly has been a topic of conversation at many different conferences, somewhat surprisingly, jeffrey took that on as well. >> without any doubt, i know that when i -- when the first

question at a large crowd presentation is over and over again talking about private credit, i say, like, well, you're asking me that because you own a ton of it, right? you're an ria, you've got your clients in these funds. of course now, i think somebody is trying to do a closed fund for private credit. it gets weirder and weirder. first someone is so bold as to want a billion dollar fund and a $5 billion fund, and a $25 billion fund. this is what the top looks like. >> this visit today with jeffrey was so unique here in huntington beach at future proof because it's the day before the fed. as all of you know, we speak to him the day of the fed, which we will do tomorrow. we're going to be live at double line headquarters in los angeles with jeffrey for the first reaction to whatever the fed does tomorrow. whether it is 25, whether it's 50. whether it's something else, and what his investment strategy thus would be as a result of what happens tomorrow. we look forward to that.

hope you'll join us. michael, we talked about the election as well, and he spent a lot of time talking about concerns about the deficit and funding it saying that neither candidate for the president of the united states has a policy that he really likes that both would be inflationary. if you talk about obviously raising taxes or tariffs or reinstituting the trump tax cuts, he's not really a fan in either scenario, and also suggested that no matter what anybody says about the current state of the economy, it could very well already be in a recession because of some of the indicators that he has been looking at over the last many months, he would suggest. he said this as well with us on the program that the economy is weaker than people want to believe. >> i was going to actually say, scott, if you knit together all of those comments that we played, i mean, if you think the fed is going 125 basis points in the next three months when they

have only said they're going to do a little bit up until now. he feels if there's economic vulnerability, it's going to come to bear, and we've got an ai bubble and a private credit pique in the milddle of it. >> he thinks the fed's behind the curve right now, and substantially so. i asked him, so what do you think, you know, how would you grade jay powell and company on the job they have done, and he went back to the beginning of when this started. he said, i would give them an f for the beginning of the hiking cycle, they started too late. and a b plus, a minus, how swiftly they reacted to raising rates. and now more recently, he suggested they get an f yet again. we'll see how it transpires. i thought it was telling, mike, that even in a conversation today with steve liesman on

half-time he's like, look, usually i know. and this time i don't know. >> without a doubt. tough grader, though, i mean, look, we got 4.2 unemployment, inflation back to 2.5. great stuff. we'll get a lot more from you over the course of the day tomorrow. talk to you soon. retail sales coming in stronger than expected for the month of august. consumer spending still on the rise in the face of a possible slow down. simeon seigle covering retail. great to have you on. let's start with the macro. it seems as if a lot of concerns around aggregate consumer activity. hasn't fallen away in a major away. a lot of people talking about a more careful consumer. how do you read it? >> good to see you. i would say what we're about to talk about is going to be a fantastic juxtaposition to the conversation you just had because listening to scott and jeff, i'm hearing all of this doom and gloom, and i think there's no question the macro

seems worse than it was when everyone was flush with stimulus. i think whether it's today or we've got a whole slew of earnings a month ago, people are still spending, without making a judgment call, whether it's healthy or not, the u.s. consumer is overly resilient when it comes to spending. >> yeah, so there's no doubt there's resilience, and what we have seen, i guess, in terms of the market, and how it's rewarding and penalizing different companies, investors seem to want to hide in the big box stores, the ones that seem to be value leaders. what does that mean for your coverage universe, and where you're finding companies that still seem to, you know, have a decent story to tell. >> i think it's really interesting. i think if you wanted consumer exposure, big companies like nike, and big companies like dollar store, and all of these global businesses that people were comfortable with that then all of a sudden they became increasingly less comfortable with. the question you have to ask, a

little bit above my pay grade, do you look at beacons of safety as a game of dominos, and you have to be worried about the ones that are still safe, or do you view them as the scarety val -- scarcity value is going up. can you ignore the multiple? what's interesting, for my conversation with investors, at least for right now, the answer is increasingly yes, people are watching sore safety elements fall away, and so they're moving, effectively willing to pay more for the classic supply and demand. that's the reason. when i look at it and talk to my inve investors, saying barbell every conversation. the barbell i'm looking at is tjx, that off price business which becomes increasingly important not just to consumers and tough environments but brands as department stores shrink. they need a place to move them. one side, recognizing it's expensive, but expensive for a reason. the other side, my team did a

big deep dive into under armour. not the type of company, here's a business that's incredibly large. people have written it off for dead, but it's also really sick, and now you have kevin plank coming in, saying, i could achieve more by doing less. in a world where investors are worried about how hard is it going to be to generate another dollar of revenue. i like a business that's going to win because it's donating the revenues, and it sounds counter intuitive, but some of the businesses over stretch. some of the brands dilute themselves, and the best fix is doing more with less. >> sometimes the incremental revenues, kind of empty calories in some situations. you mentioned last week, investor appetite for finding compelling under appreciated retai retail longs is incredibly low. for you, you have a sales job here, what are the things that are being overlooked aside from

under armour that you think are worth attention. >> i have incredibly long duration. analysts without capital on the line, being able to just look for ideas that they like. i think that this is a classic mid september into october event. a great rihyme. no one says it. october ends up being the second worst month for my imgroup. we're far away from back to school. there's no investing catalyst, we have the q2 earnings, not going to get 3q, what ends up happening is you get these doll dr d drums, all that fear, that's going to be what people are talking about. it's hard to ignore the macro, and it's not getting better. what that means for those willing to look past that, i believe the environment is not as worse as it seems or people are going to spend through it.

if that happens, you can find businesses like a victoria secret, bath and body works, good businesses struggling with the time right now that you're getting a multiple gift, the valuation is coming back down. that's why i created the tj under armor conversation. when you're looking at what's going on now, appreciating you're going to lose news-driven catalysts, a reason to dig in, as long as i make it to november, then there are compelling opportunities, that's how we're approaching it. >> a big drop in gasoline prices. a lot of things could keep the consumer going longer than many hope or expect at this point. good to talk to you. thank you. >> good to see you. >> the ceo of conocophillips joins us with his take on oil prices and the broader energy sector. follow us on the go by following the closing bell podcast on your favorite podcast app. we'll be right back.

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it's been a rough year for oil and gas investors. stocks in most oil and gas companies are also being sold off. conocophillips shares down 11% this year but the ceo remains optimistic about global oil and gas demand remaining high for years or decades to come. brian sullivan is at the gas tech conference in houston with conocophillips ceo, brian lance. brian, take it away. >> thanks, mike, and i know a

guy named mike santoli who has been talking about investor distaste or dislike for oil and gas companies out there as the price of oil goes on. let's hone in more with brian lance. oil traders are net short oil for the first time ever or in a very long time. do you agree with the market's bearishness? everybody hates oil, all of a sudden. >> we know the price is going to be volatile right now. there's demand concerns coming out of china, demand concerns is the u.s. slowing down a little bit, and other areas around the world, combined within an overhang on the supply side, sitting in opec plus, growth coming out of the u.s., and growth coming out of the non-opec, non-u.s. sector as well. it's trading at a lower end of the volatility range than what we would have expected. this too shall recover. demand will recover, and we are pretty constructive as we go forward over the next two years.

>> the $68 oil versus $72 oil determine what conoco phillips does with its capital? >> no, we look at a mid cycle price, even below prices that are occurring today. we can invest across the cycles. we have the balance sheet available to invest through these cycles and do that. we know these consistent investment programs are right, rather than following the market up and down. look, we're building a company for the next two or three decades. we know oil is going to be around for a long time. pouring oil and gas both, to fossil fuel. the cycle times are longer in the business. we don't get caught up in what's going on in a day-to-day basis. >> i don't think anybody said, there would be a day soon when u.s. natural gas would be keeping the lights and heat on in europe. i don't know what the german word is for dairy air, do you

think u.s. natural gas would be saving much of europe? >> we couldn't have imagined what's happening today. we're blessed with a huge amount of supply and natural resource in north america, here in the united states, and that's the opportunity in front of us. that opportunity to keep our energy prices low with the growing power demand and the electrification that's coming and the opportunity to export that to our allies. the share revolution in this country that be remarkable and revolutionized our business, our industry, our company as we think about the next five, ten, fifteen and thirty years in the country. >> the california electric grid, and western u.s., last week, i think it was, made a deal with an energy provider in south dakota starting in 2026 to import more electricity from south dakota and wyoming to california. much of that will be coal powered. i'm thinking to myself, california, might be adding more coal generation to its capacity

or at least it will help out. >> yeah. >> in a couple of years. with all the gas that we've got, all of these other hydrogen nuclear, how did we get here? >> what's interesting, the power and demand has been relatively flat over time, and it's allowed us to take coal fired power plants in some of the combined cycle gas plants out of business. the power demand is growing, ai, just because the economics are growing, and the energy expansion needs in the united states are going to be enormous. it's going to take all forms of this energy. you're seeing crazy things going on in places like california. they need to keep a reliable source of energy, and low cost for the consumer. to do that, you're going to need all of these advantages, renewable, coal, more expansion of the oil and gas system as well. more nuclear over time as well. that expansion is significant. >> we finally had a plan open up. not picking on my former home state, talking about getting

more power from coal. you might have heard that tomorrow the federal reserve, ryan, may cut interest rates for the first time in years, 2:00 eastern, "power lunch," the decision, you guys are a capital intensive industry. does it matter to you if the fed goes 25 or 50, given that you borrow or spend a year. >> not much. it matters because we want to see a healthy economy in the united states. the unemployment rate has been a problem. we're trying to manage. i know the fed was trying to manage through the whole system a little bit. we understand that. i think whaes wt's important to is positive growth around the globe. it's probably timed to do something. 25 bips or 50, we're investing for decades to come. that's what's important to the company and growth and development. >> ryan lance, thank you for joining us on cnbc.

mike santoli, i don't know if you heard, there's a fed decision tomorrow. you heard it here. i'm breaking news to you. >> we appreciate it. we'll be here. i might just stay right here for it as we get within 22 hours of it. brian, thank you very much. thank you r, ryan lance as well. up ahead, we're tracking the big biggist -- biggest movement. >> an online betting company, we'll tell you more after the break.

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about 14 minutes to the closing bell. let's get back to see ma. >> shares up applovin, to buy from neutral. the bank citing opportunities for applovin, in the ecommerce space. stock up 7%. flutter climbing to its highest level in three years. the online sports betting company behind fanduel that says it would buy playtex italian gambling for 2 1/2 billion dollars. and behind the momentum of shares up 2 1/2% today. ar. still ahead, ge, vernova

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"the market zone" is next.

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or college, since you like to get schooled. that's a pretty good burn, right? got him. good game. thanks for coming to our clinic, first one's free. we are now in the closing bell market zone. what's putting pressure on know voe nor disc -- novo nordisk to. and crucial moments of the trading day heading into the close. angelica, talk to us about novo nordisk. >> those shares are down 3 1/2%, after bernie sanders said generic drug makers could sell ozempic for less than $100 a month and still make a profit. this is a preview of what's to

come when he testifies. also today, a novo executive saying it's likely ozempic will be one of the next drugs medicare will negotiate a price on. medicare recently getting authority to negotiate with drug makers on some drugs, and analysts widely expect that ozempic will be in the negs ro next round. they can't speculate on which medicines will be selected for future negotiations. we'll see what happens when we get the next list in february. mike. >> i note lily down 2%, perhaps related to that. seema, incredible spin layoff. >> that debate helping as well. analysts at bank of america are raising their price target on ge from 200 to $300 a share. you don't see that often citing the acceleration in u.s. electricity demand driven in part by growth in data centers and how that will drive the gas-powered business, which

currently accounts for 30% of sales. wall street looking ahead to the december 10th investor event where the street is expecting a potential buyback announcement. one head-wind has been its wind business, but ge vernova split. we had a conversation about spinoffs, to get expo sure to the company leaving. >> it is remarkable. the focus and idea that these were under appreciated assets. also, these are long-lived order flows. if you think the gas turbine business is picking up, that's a year's worth of business. >> and they have gas power. they have small nuclear reactors that are being used, similar to what larry ellison said last week, coinciding with growth. part of the broader ai trade. >> right place and right time. thank you. we have a news alert on steve cohen.

he's going to stop trading .72 but remain a cochief investment officer at the firm. that's according to a report. we'll bring you more details as we have them. peter, weigh in here. not on steve cohen. the mets are probably going to be in the playoffs. he needs to focus on that at this point. we have a fed decision coming tomorrow. we have a little bit of suspense around it. how do you think it's going to go? what do you think it's going to mean? >> mike, maybe we'll start with a little historical context. the fed has never started a modest cutting cycle since 1954 with a 50 basis points move, unless it was preceded by an unscheduled meeting, such as 2007. and at the 2007 meeting, the unscheduled meeting, they discussed stresses in the housing market. it would appear that no such stresses exist now. to put it in perspective, you know, a 50-basis point move, fed

funds, futures markets are more or less pricing in, many on the street are calling for as necessary, given the slowdown they're seeing, it would be very very unusual and, you know, i think the fed ought to be -- >> it's been sold as a normalization process, this is insurance cuts, not something because the economy is weakening, do you buy into the the environment in which the fed is easing? >> i think the high frequency data has been showing that for months. when you look at initial and continuing claims, initial claims have done nothing close to what i expected at this point, there has been no acceleration there, payroll is about weakening. this is not really the environment where i think the fed needs to do a 50 basis point cut as a preemptive measure, when historically, it's never

done so. so i think 25 makes sense. but unfortunately, i think there's a coin toss here. i think it's a 50/50 chance they actually go 50 basis points. >> what does that mean for you, quickly in terms of, you know, investment tactics at this point? do you still like government bonds after this huge rally or corporates? >> yeah, we talked about that mid to late august. the ten-year, you know, we liked extending duration, and owning the ten thf-year, a bunch of ths priced in at this point. i think we're 120 basis points inverted from three months to ten years. i think that tells you, you know, a lot of the -- a lot of cuts have been priced in in our view. i think the ten-year will get better bid as the economy continues to a longer term trade. i think for now, it's laid out and, you know, we exited that

trade and that cautious reentry. >> peter, appreciate the time today. we'll see how it goes tomorrow. thank you very much. as we get set to close here, the s&p is going to go out almost exactly flat. it does touch an all time intraday high today, which was just one point against the intraday high in july, going flat. we'll send it into overtime with morgan and john. >> that bell marks the end of regulation. verona pharma doing the honors at the nasdaq. stocks trading in a tight range a as the fed meeting gets underway. the s&p 500 did kiss a record, and winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell overtime," i'm jon fortt. rob lynch breaks down retail data and his read on the consumer in the