three month annualized basis. that is with hotter shelf data. this is what they're arguing, the fed is behind the curve knowing that cuts take a long time to get into the economy. just like hikes do. >> a slight rotation out of mega caps. not rolling out of bed. >> yeah. >> not yet. >> all right. we're going to be watching that closely tomorrow. in the meantime, stocks basically flat today. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime." "fast money" starts now. >> live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square this is "fast money." the fed in focus. the s&p 500 and dow hitting new intraday records ahead of tomorrow's big rate decision and some areas caught our attention. we dig into the day's biggest moves and what they say about the direction for the markets. and the face of fear. the chart master sees danger lurking in the trio of sectors.

what got him selling them all? and the bounce in the skinny stocks. the price on ozempic and meta momentum. one of our traders is bullish on the stock. i'm melissa lee from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight are my guests. we start off with the rate sensitive rally ahead of tomorrow's expected rate cut. the dow and s&p 500 each hitting all time highs during the session, closing off their best levels. the nasdaq finishing up .2%. the russell 2000 led the charge up .75%. the equal weighted s&p 500 did close at a record. more than double the performance of the market cap index over the past month. home builder stocks higher, too. the etf notching the eighth straight positive session. longest streak since july 2023. the s&p 500 real estate etf did pull back. the best performing etf over the past month. in payments, visa, mastercard,

american express all hitting all-time highs to day. even lower in lenders on the back of the warning last week. regaining some ally, capital one, discover, each jumping more than 2%. so what does this all tell you ahead of the fed decision? tim? what are we pricing in? >> we priced in a lot. and we priced in -- depending on 25 or 50, i don't know. i'm not sure i care what the end result that will do for the economy is probably another 9 to 12 months out. that's why we talk about we don't think it is a political 50. if it is 50. but i look at the two-year note that before that payroll number in august which was the july payroll number, we got it on august 2nd and august 5th we had this massive intraday drawdown. we went from 4.30 on the two year to inside 3.55. you have a dynamic. you have at least a handful of other things saying we priced in a lot of that. look at the fed fund futures.

240 basis points between now and december 2025. i would get whack tback to if t is cutting that much between now and then, is this a economy that the equities are outperforming? there is zero question that we have a ton of liquidity in markets right now. we have a ton of expectations about the fed. we have a dynamic where the dollar is giving up ground. it is weaker from the peak. you have boj coming later in the week. it's an exciting week. i think it's going to be kind of a, you know, is that all you got? it doesn't matter whether it's 25 or 50. we price in a lot. >> well, the odds right now are 70% for a 50 basis point cut tomorrow. and so if we don't get that, is the implication that the rally that we've seen today and yesterday, that goes sort of up in smoke? >> i doubt it. i mean, i am in the -- >> she's the 50 point believer. >> i stayed in the 25 campaign.

we're not that far apart sfwlchlt yo. >> you're showing off. we wouldn't be completely shocked if it's one or the other? is the market is the market already pricing it in? what would happen if they get 25? >> right. i think it depends. it doesn't happen in a vacuum. we hear what jay powell says. i think the choice is 25 and very dovish or 50 and a little less dovish. still dovish nonetheless. i think, we always talk about deny or delay? just delayed. i think then -- i don't think it makes that much of a difference. this is what we do in this network. we like to make it the most important 25 pace is basis poine history of bond fractions. here we are. i think the market is pricing in 50. maybe a little bit disappointed. but with the run we've had, anything could cause a little bit of disappointment. >> right. it is amazing to think that the difference between 50 and 25 is

really not that much. particularly when the aggregate amount of cuts for the year remain the same. just how we get them. yet, the markets moved so decisively believing that there is relief for the consumer coming immediately in the form of 50 basis point cut. we see that in the mom builders a -- home builders and lenders. if we don't get that for small caps as well, this will be some level of disappointment here. >> i think it will effect the day traders. there will be heightened volatility around the announcement. we saw the moves around treasuries and equities as it comes out and you're awaiting the commentary around it. i think that will will present trading opportunities if we were going to get 25 versus 50 which seems to be priced in. i'm add odds with karen which is a pretty dangerous place to be. i just think going 50 would kind of break trend for powell. whether we can -- whether we want to argue he was late and didn't do a good job, he's been pretty steadfast in terms of

signalling. i just worry it might shock the market that he feels the need to deviate from where he has been. and i don't think that's the proper messaging to give to the market. with that said, ultimately, i think ultimately is about the glide path and how far we're going to go over a longer period of time. i'm in agreement that ultimately doesn't matter. the 25 basis points right now, likely isn't going to affect the long end of the curve which is where most of the risk assets are priced anyway. i think that if we do get deviation from what is now the consensus that you will will see an opportunity to trade around the actual announcement. >> the main thing is, of course, as is almost always the case, the fed is behind. the market is wise. collective wisdom is important principle. what the two-year note is saying is that they're in need of doing quite a bit more. 25 or 50, i think that is not the risk. the real risk is they're priced in the market. wow, 50, okay. and it goes down, or 25 and it

goes down. remember this is the part where there is no way around this. these are men and women that sit on the edge of the bed and put their shoes on in the morning like everybody else. >> the edge of the bed. >> they have no morning sight. >> and the market is way ahead of them. two-year note. >> all right. is there a scenario where the market goes higher? he said 25. 50, i mean, what is that scenario? if they sort of telegraph more cuts than when at is priced in, that's a bad sign, isn't it? >> not in a world where the fed acknowledged we're restrictive and policy until we're not. and data dependent has been getting back to a pce and 2% there. but ultimately, the fed is acknowledging we want to be driving with the brake on for a while until we feel comfortable that that's something we don't have to do anymore. i think if you get to place where we're actually looking at a labor market that is stabilizing here. they're talking about stabilizing the labor market. you have ingredients where the market can go higher.

i think the biggest impact from the move lower in inflation happened on that july cp -- the july 17th announcement of cpi from a month earlier. if you look at the change in the markets, so that outperformance of the equal weighted and the s small caps, small caps picking up speed, whether it is the spyv, the value s&p hor some parts of the economy broadening, we have had massive moves. it outperformed from 6.5% from that point in jewuly. i argue that is the day that market priced in, hey, everything is pretty clear. now what we don't have is a gross scare priced in. until you get those data points, the market has every reason to go higher. again, i think there is so much liquidity in the market now at a period when the fed is supposed to be taking the balance sheet down and also restricting liquidity and pulling it back. if anything, we're a wash in

liquidity. >> liquidity and entering -- aside from the last two weeks of september -- >> looks pretty good. >> it is a strong period of time for the markets traditionally. we do have the election. a little thing called the election. >> i don't know. do they care about the markets? we care about the markets, right? i don't know how much they focus on the markets. i think more about real rates. real rates are pretty high right now. and, so, to me, that's sort of higher than they -- higher than they need to be. and one thing i really don't get is this idea of can powell, can he make a, you noi, caknow, can a soft landing? is this not a soft landing? when is the landing? i sort of feel like he nailed the landing two years ago. if we had said, look, this is where we're going to be. we'll have gdp here, you know, not bad. inflation will come down. unemployment will still be at a very good rate four, three, whatever it is. that is a soft landing. why doesn't this count as that?

what is -- >> i guess we have to wait until rates are normalized and then declare soft landing? i don't know. you know, we have a guest coming up that can probably answer that question in terms of what we're expecting the market reaction to be if he sort of telegraphs -- i mean, what is the potential upside here if we rally into this decision? >> well, i think that risk is not equally weighted. i think will is more down side risk. clearly the trend is higher. but in terms of soft landing, i think there is one x factor in defining it by that exact definition. state of the consumer. we debated that ad nauseam on this panel. you can talk about a k shape recovery and high versus low-income earners, employment rate. but ultimately, despite the fact that we have brought inflation down, the level of price is still so substantially higher, and that is seen across everything from insurance, housing affordability. that is the landing that is

still yet to happen. in terms of the economy and like the larger metrics that we're looking at from top down, i agree. it has been quite a soft landing, like he threaded that needle. but in terms of the ability to invest and for the average american to afford shelter and insurance, housing insurance, and car insurance and automobiles, we have seen so much volatility there that even though we're not continuing to grow at the level that we have at the peak of whatever it was 10%, those prices are still sticky. and that still leads to restraint within the consumer complex. >> so, how big of a question mark mark is the consumer in all of this if consumers high and low are questioning how they spend their money in terms of whether or not this is a -- is this a soft landing if you have different cohort consumers having difficulty or really thinking about how they spend their money? >> i sort of think it is a soft landing when you look at the gdp

collectively. surely, there are parts of the economy where it is harder for them. that is always the case. i think that it is. there is a broad swath that i think are doing nicely. so, to me, about what could they say that would be -- that would be bullish? i think that they foresee continuing decline in innation and productivity gains. >> i think it comes down to the labor market. i think, you know, the rise in unemployment hasn't been for bad reasons. its been more about declining job rate more people into the workforce. that is not the making of recession. that is not what he had in past recessions. so, yes, we've seen this, you know, disparity between the different consumer cohort groups. there is no question that your grocery bill is 40% higher than it was pre-covid or more. we know who that is hurting the most. i think there are people getting pinched. but what we have seen on the

consumer side is that, you know, how many times have we been talking about the luxury segment getting destroyed. it's not just because of china. i think that the consumer is under pressure. i think that part of where the v valuations have to suffer. >> our next guest would prefer a more aggressive half point rate slashing. mark zandy joins us now. great to he sosee you. you were saying, there is not much of a difference in terms the impact if you get 25 or 50 now. in your view, at this moment in time, why is it better to do a 50? what are the consequences of not doing a 50? >> well, you know, i think the fed achieved its goals, its mandate. they did that months ago in terms of full employment, you know, the unemployment rate north of 4% and in terms of inflation. i think we're, you know, the fed got inflation back in the bottle. if they achieved their goals,

then, you know, why at 5.5% is close to funds rate. and you're running the risk of breaking something in the financial system or the broader economy and labor market. so, given that, i think they should normalize interest rates as fast as they can. get it down to something. now there is a reasonable debate as to what normal means. you know, the so-called equilibrium rate higher? probably. it's not 5.5%. let's get this funds rate down as fast as we can so we take the pressure off the economy. we achieved our goals. we did -- mission accomplished. let's move on. 25 basis points with a clear guidance that the fed is going to be cutting rates on a consistent way at future meetings is a dovish 25-basis point cut, i'm not sure that is bier better basis point cut.

i think signals matter and markets are poised for 50 basis points. i would prefer. that having said all that, this is a much more cautious fed in being sort of out of character, a powell-led fed to do that. they tend to wait for emergencies to cut 50 basis points, something going off the rails in the economy. i like 50. i like them to get the rates down fast. i suspect they'll be slower than that. >> mark, thank you for joining us. if the stock market was the economy, the economy is never better. what is the mismatch here? again,a y. it is that rates markets are telling us something different i hear what you're saying about normalize the fed funds rate. again, fed funds out to december of 2025 and mocommodity prices e pricing for recession. who is offsides? >> that's a great question. i think the economy is doing

great. it's consistent with, you know, record-high stock prices and very thin credit spreads in the corporate bond market. you know, the very aggressive kind of view on rate cuts here going forward, it feels like the market is pricing in something that is not quite as good. you know, maybe it's the way the distribution of possible outcomes looks like. meaning, the kind of baseline forecast of traders is consistent with really good economy. but they're attaching a higher probability to kind of a tale event, something out there that will derail the economy and make it go off the rails very quickly. it may simply be that they're just attaching a higher way to the kind of very dark risky scenarios. that's why you're getting that very aggressive looking cut in rates in futures. i think generally markets are saying this is -- this economy is doing really pretty well i mean, by all regards. >> bringing it back to the

conversation around affordability and all the focus that we're putting now on tomorrow, are we kind of like offsides in terms of where we're focusing on? should we be focusing on housing affordability and the initiatives that are being put on deck? should we review that more or should the focus on the fed. it is underlining the issues that political parties are speaking to enand the consumer feeling? >> the fed can only solve of so many problems. with he have deeper issues with regard to affordability. you mentioned housing. that is the key one. that is the large item in most people's budget. it's about a third of their budget goes to housing in one form or another. that can't be solved by the fed. the fed can make things worse by keeping rates too high for too long undermining affordability and makes it more difficult for builders to build homes that we desperately need. we do need fiscal policy support

if we're going to address the affordability problem in a reasonably timely way. we got into this mess with regard to affordability and lack of affordable housing, the shortage over a generation. it really began in the wake of the global financial crisis in the '08, '09 period. it will take a while to get out of this mess. we can get out a lot faster if we start to address this with policy. >> mark, great to see you. thanks. >> any time. thank you. >> mark zandi of moody's. what do you think? you asked the question. i'm curious. what do you think in terms of all the proposals to improve affordability of housing. what is the end result? >> i mean, i think the key is going to be supply. there has to be incentive for builders to build more and build affordable housing. there has to be some incentive for there to be -- i don't know if the tax breaks are really the way or the path forward here h is there going to be some type

of rebate? that's been mentioned in terms of, you know, making loans more affordable. or having the down payment be lower. ultimately, i think it really comes back to supply. there needs to be an incentive for builders to build $400,000 and below-level homes. >> i think you're right. i hear fiscal policy support and underlying issues. i hear fiscal policy support and i get sick to my stomach. i hear underlying issues haen i hear budget deficit of 6% gdp. i don't know how we're going to solve this problem. in the long run we have massive problems. maybe traders don't care about. that the reality is neither party candidate, neither administration will take office is focused at all on the deficit. and there are -- they are talking about tax cuts. they're talking about ways in which we can support american industry at the expense of a higher cost. so, those are things that are very concerning. unfortunately, i think for citizens of the united states, it's a problem for the stock

market. it may not be a problem now. >> well, just maybe wrap up with home builders since that is a sensitive area. the itb looks great. that's an area that is not sort of crowded steep and full. >> all right. coming up, is intel's amazon deal all it cracked up to be. why wall street is getting too bullish in the long road ahead for the chip stock. and shares of novonortis getting hit on the blockbuster treatment. the news of on the stock. the news of on the stock. we're back in two. what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot complexity. healthcare payments are filled with it. wasted time, inadequate resources.

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xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. switch today! he was asked about the fed decision. i'll paraphrase before i play it. he said it kind of doesn't matter if it's 25 basis point or 50 basis point. really need to listen and focus on the underlying economy and criticized the fed for not doing that. take a listen to what he said. >> they're going to do it. you know, 25, 50 basis points. it's not going to be earth shattering. it doesn't mean that much.

i think they need to do it. i think jay powell does do a great job. but as a minor thing when the fed is raising rates or lowering rates. underneath that there is a real economy. they don't know what that is. it could be getting dramatically worse. it could be leveling out. inflation could get worse in three months. they have to respond. >> now atop of that, dimon discussed crypto and blockchain. he said it doesn't really matter. he did say jp morgan is into blockchain technology and praised it as a good thing for sharing data, transferring money and things like that. very bullish on that technology, just no the for crypto and things of that nature. and then also mentioned, talked about the work/life balance. it is a renewed talk about bankers working extreme hours. talked a little bit about new programs to help with employees including with drug problems. and also talked about new policies like getting

assignmentes to bankers by wednesday in order to avoid weekend work. but he also said people need to manage their time better and more efficiently. he used himself as an example. he said he has plenty of time to get work done, spend time with family and even exercise. melissa, back to you. >> all right. steve, thanks. steve kovak. let's get to intel. shares closing higher. shares rose as much as 8% after the company announced multibillion dollar partnership with aws and they have plans to put the foundry business into a separate subsidiary. the stock ended the day up less than 3%. so, again, well off the highs. maybe there is a little realization that the time frame for all of this you know, is in question. the execution to get to that point, of producing chips on that. that is up in the air. what is your interpretation? >> i thought it was a hill much to do about maybe not nothing but i'm not really sure. and i think about the negotiation between aws and intel and who had all of the

cards there. i mean, i don't know if this is the bottom or not. i probably rather see very significant signs of a turn around and buy it much p higher. -- much higher. >> carter does this look like a bottom for intel? >> it sure be etched in stone. it's better technique to buy something higher. people don't want to do it. i missed it. it is usually better to buy higher than lower f something is wrong, it is down. my hunch is, based on today's action, just by closing poorly, that this goes further towards establishing that plunge low of august 2nd when it dropped from 29 to 21 as lthe low that will stand. is there that much upside? it is the kind of thing that maybe found its level and just starts to become a big pair of twos. >> a big old pair of twos. >> big ole. >> rather than a small pair. >> a big ole pair of twos.

a lot more "fast money" to come. >> novo no go. shares sinking as the company warns the blockbuster drug could be subject to price negotiations. what it means for the weight loss trade. plus, the face of fear. chart master is look wrg the money is going and why that is flashing a big warning signal for these trades. "fast money," we're back right "fast money," we're back right after this this is clem. clem's not a morning person. or a night person. or a...people person. but he is an "i can solve this in 4 different ways" person. and that person... is impossible to replace. you need clem. clem needs benefits. work with principal so we can help you help clem with a retirement and benefits plan that's right for him.

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welcome back to "fast money." novo shares slumping after the diabetes drug is very like think to face medicare drug price negotiations. the next list of drugs will be finalized by next february with prices going into effect in 2027. let's get more now from the health care sector strategist jarrod holtz. great to have you with us. the what would this mean in terms of revenue? >> thanks so much for having me. it's not totally clear yet. we don't know, you know, the significance or the magnitude rather of the price cuts that we're going to be dealing with for ozempic. then we go here in 2027. but something to the, you know,

around 30% to 40% off of the list price would be my best guess. and these drugs are averaging about $1,000 per month. so call it, you know, $600 per month, $700 a month. i think there is some investors that think it will be lower than that. but i would think that a 30% to 40% discount from here is probably pretty fair. >> so, the assumption is ozempic will be subject to negotiations and then willthe other drug wil follow. should we expect the same for the others? >> i think so. ozempic is the same as the other drug. they're just defined for different markets. i think once ozempic goes, then i would assume that the pricing that lily has to use for the others is going to be very similar. i think they have a very difficult time pricing it at a premium, you know, i think a lot of doctors and patients want the

cheaper option. so, i think it's a little bit of a moving target. i venture to guess that both companies have similar pricing even though it's only ozempic that gets targeted here. >> i guess the question too, jarrod, is by the time that these prices, nthese new prices go into effect, there will be other, better versions of these weight loss drugs out on the market or coming soon to market. so in the end, you know, i think this is a lot of forecasting here, you're talking at looking at 2027 or beyond, does it really matter? >> i really don't know if it does. you can paint a picture where this is a negative for novo evidence by the stock move today. i think that is based on timing. a little bit of a surprise that company commented so early even though we see it coming. you can also say, you know, they have such a nice lead than lily versus all the competitors trying to get in here. plus, they're looking at, you

know, different weight loss treatments as well in the pipeline, another injectable, potentially a better injectable than they have now and working at least a couple oral programs. you and i and the december vk spoken about these a -- desk have spoken about this a lot. maybe it won't be bad to switch patients to other drugs than ozempic and they become kind of like first generation. but they kind of, you know, walk patients to newer technologies that may not be a big deal at all. >> jarrod, thanks for being on. to drill down on that point. when do you expect let's say the oral drug to come to market? where would that list point about where would the price cuts take effect and how long into sort of they get to a different revenue stream on a newer drug? >> you know, we're talking about price cuts for this drug class, or at least novo in nordisk.

this is the batch of drugs that the government continues to go of after. i think the oral programs are roughly the same timing, karen. so, 2027, 2028. so, it's going to be very, very closely aligned with the pricing, you know, construct that government laid out. and there is an opportunity for the company to, you know, offset some of the damage with new drugs. >> jarrod, thank you for your input. always appreciate it. >> great to see you. thank you. >> jarrod holtz of mezuho. so it's only a matter of a few years here in terms of full price. >> it's just interesting to bring it back to what the market does and what the investor community are willing to price and give the competitive advantage and for how long? on some level, it's the debate around nvidia and a couple of at least they were the bigger probably. but even if you think about this week when talking about the dynamics around, you know, the

challenge to other drugs and this is a stock that ultimately didn't price in any of the competitiveness this week when you consider how important that drug is to the profile. in the short run, investors are staying long in the names. we've seen that. it is kind of, i can deal with 27 and 27. i don't see even the analyst pricing that in yet. >> i don't think there is a winner here. who is losing less? to tim's point, i think it is the incumbents losing less. they're making a decisionin on what is going to be going forward. >> coming up, time to face your fears. the stellar returns over the long term. they could be getting a bit crowded. details next. all esey on energy as oil looks to bounce back. the sounds and sights from the world's largest energy conference ahead. conference ahead. "fast money" is back in two. that's a pretty good burn, right? tony, its gone.

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what's this? she's opening her fidelity app.... to buy that stock... with no fees or commissions... because what does gina got? gina's got the look. that never gets old. talk about easier investing. welcome back to "fast money." the s&p 500 touching a record high early in the session brendibr before ending the day near the flat line. but the chart master is looking at the face of fear. we're at record highs. don't be a debbie downer. >> exactly. so what we're going to look at, we'll focus on the most

defensive areas of the market. which in this case is utilities, reets and consumer staples. let's look at a long-term table that is stunning. this depicts from the absolute high, friday, march 24th, 2000, the total return of those three sectors versus the s&p 500 total return. and which is the worst? the s&p 500. so remarkably, in 24 years plus, right, you're talking about staples total return beat the market total return, utilities and real estate. humbling for all of us as we try to pick, buy, sell, be short, overweight, underweight, the most defensive areas, yield is so important. here and now this group is full. the word expensive is a tough word. valuation, nobody knows. they're full. look at the two charts that depict, i think this circumstance. so what you're looking at is a basket. it's an equal weight chart of three sectors.

consumer staples, the utilities, and the reets. together they combine to 11% of the s&p. we're about as far above trend using the 150 day moving average any time on record. zero in and do the five-year chart just to depict this again. so, just where we are now in relation to average trailing level over the past 150 days, this is the face of fear. so what is it? if you were to look at coke or general mills, philip morris or proctor & gamble. they're all right now, forget the chart, they're all trading now at levels where they're 12-month price target on wall street is actually lower. so wall street, collectively, you're talking about hundreds of analysts, in those from clorox to proctor to coke, all think that those individual stocks 12 months hence will be lower. now price targets are also subject to change. but when you look at it from a chart representation or just

looking at those responsible for getting it right, they're full. >> all right. >> can i ask carter a question about that? >> one quick question. >> if that outperformance verse the s&p, would it make sense to have an s&p, let's say even the mag seven versus that sector? >> if you look at the technology sector since march of 2000 with total dividends, it blows away all of them. but that's a different segment. >> ahhh, okay. >> exactly. >> fear. fear. all right. so we thought we would ask traders what their fear trades would be which is what they would buy in anticipation of a selloff. what would yours be? >> didn't understand the question exactly. fear of a selloff, fear of a down turn in the world or market. walmart. would it trade down, yes. but i think it's also where you want to be, the size, the scale. i think that, you know, obviously they cater to the lower-end consumer but every

consumer. and they're just running on all cylinders. >> i'm rating what carter is saying in terms of fearing a down turn, practicalor and gamble. it's the cheapest in the sub s&p. if you're fearful, you run where people run when their fearful. >> coke is the real thing. it's outperforming the s&p by 10%. it has also grown dividend 20% in the last five years. they'll have major, major buy backs. they're getting through a massive irs tax bill and earn out on a company. i like coke. i liked it for a long time. >> the next step though, carter, when you say the names are full, procter & gamble and coke were full. >> and they can get full, i suppose, because if they're able to do what you're thinking, right -- my pick for this -- it's not a would you rather, my pick would be if you could bet the jockey in a bad moment, who is the best rider or the guy

that has the most cash? the guy is berkshire. if we get in a real down turn. >> he doesn't even want to buy his own stock right now. >> right. >> coming up, energy lagging the broader market in a major way. what the heads of e thindustry's largest companies are saying about the next move in the oil space. we're watching the gas tech conference in this houston next. conference in this houston next. don't go anywhere. and services businesses, deliver global financial solutions. so our client can keep investing in innovations for patients around the world. without pause. for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress.

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welcome back to "fast money "eye. wti and brent closing more than 1% higher. this is the gather at the world's largest energy conference in houston. brian sullivan is at gas tech and spoke with mike worth earlier today. >> i have to be careful. it's a gas conference. we're going to talk about oil, 11 156 countries here. chevron, they're bigger than natural gas space. conocophillips. we talked to them all today. you've been doing a great job breaking down oil, traders net negative on paper. we never been this more bearish on oil. at least in a decade's time. so, when you get to speak to the ceo of chevron, you ask him what is going on with the price of

oil. and mike worth said it wasn't one thing. it was kind of a lot of things. >> supply has been pretty strong. we've seen growth in supply primarily in the americas. we have opec with capacity offline. demand is a little less, i think, than most people expect as we see slowing economy here. we've seen slower growth in china than i think most people expected. it's a market that right now looks well supplied with some cast held back. i think that really explains the near term outlook. >> i'm not a phd in commoditynomics, but when you have higher demand and concern about a million plus barrels coming on from opec as they roll of the cuts, china not going anywhere. increased output from brazil and 2.4 million in america, you get a price stuck in the low 70s. >> what is the talk there about politics, about elections, brian, if any?

>> i try to bring it up, everybody else is trying to avoid it. i've been on a couple of panels. off camera, you talk about things a little more. here's what people say. they don't want to say one side or the other because you're doomed if the other side from your side gets in. what they will all say is that we need consistency of policy, melissa. that is every four years we can't have a new energy policy or no energy policy. whatever it may be. these are multi-year, multi-decade projects in some cases. and unless -- every four to eight years we get a wild change in energy policy, regulatory permitting, et cetera, it's going to be very different and difficult to grow. i will say this. the pressure is on the permitting. there is a lot of questions about vice president harris who is now kind of come out and said not anti-fracking. does that mean she is pro-fracking or just not against it? there is a difference against

being for something and not against it. >> right. brian, thank you. great to see you as all. brian sullivan joining us from gas tech in houston. speaking of chevron, that's -- >> yes. >> you wish you could switch to conoco. >> we could. and while they played the game right, karen played it successfully. i'm giving you credit for much better picks. it may have been a cool name. ultimately, chevron to me is a story that i think you're staying long. brian talked about the sector. i also think if you're buying integrated oil company at this point, you're buying a chevron or exxon, we had this conversation, you're not as exposed to the upstream. you have a case where also you're seeing the community now and they downgrade the full year oil prices based upon the current pricing. you're getting the stock after you remarked it to market. so i'm not running from this trade. in fact, i think it's a better trade now. >> coming up, big swings in meta

over the past few months. the tenilsaychca m be pointing to a decisive move in one particular direction. what the chart masters sees next. more "fast money" in two .

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shares much meta posting the best close since august. 1.5% from the record high. the chart master says the social xok c -- stock could be in position to go viral. >> okay. here we go. let's go to a comparative chart first. look at meta relative. and meta is the blue line versus the orange. it is a beta trade. this stock plunged 76% in the 2022 bear market versus a 37% selloff and, of course, it recovered all of that. and now is ahead of the qs. two identical meta charts on their own, first of two, this would be with no annotations. we'll see it here now. and then the second chart, let's draw some lines. so, final chart, does it break out as i inclined? that's my bet. if you like the name patterns, you call that an ascending

triangle, wedge, doesn't matter. more often than not, big strength, big rest, resolve in the direction of the preceding move. strength, rest, presumptive strungth. -- strength. >> i think it has a lot of the same features that staples and utilities has which is cash rich. i think it's a way for you to mitigate risk. i think that it trades at a multiple roughly half of what the index trades at. from a defensive posture, i think it makes a lot of sense even if i'm not quite as bulled up on it as carter is. >> karen? you're bulled up. >> i am. my biggest position has been for a while. i think some of this recent, very, very recent, like within days, the tiktok trial, hearings -- trial and not going particularly well for tiktok, so it seems. if they were -- if the

government prevails, i think there is more upside from that. >> look, it's hard to argue that meta isn't one of the more impressive top line growers in the mag seven. i think, you know, tanner recently came out with i think the top pick. and they're saying the top line, you know, they see somewhere between 13 and 18% top line growth. that certainly going to translate a steady capex environment to more eps. it is not the year of efficiency anymore. but it is a place where despite the fact at times even in the last few quarters they reported cap ex that scared people around ai, i think there is a much more rational approach to that. it is no longer the days of the meta verse at all cost. >> is this the best chart of the mag seven? >> definitely. the others made new highs where meta wasn't. but then they all plunge much more on the august 5th low.

meta is this dormant thing. that is the real opportunity. >> up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade. around the horn. >> coca-cola. i mean, the fear trade, no. it's the real thing. stay here. >> karen? >> yes, i love chaarter's chart work. it gets me to meta. so going home with the girl that brought me, meta. >> premiums continuing to increase. revenue continues to increase. cheap to the market. all state. sticking to the insurance space. >> that wasn't your defensive

name. it is defensive. >> carter? >> most defensive of all in many ways, because of his track record and because of the amount of cash he has. so berkshire hathaway. i would hold them. in the event of a drawdown, it will serve you well. >> all right. thank you for watching "fast money." meantime, don't go anywhere, "mad money" starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hello, i am cramer, welcome to cramerica, welcome to "mad money", i am just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain