tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC September 18, 2024 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc world headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." the final countdown is on with one of the most important fed decisions in years. there's still debate how much they'll cut after holding steady for 14 straight months. from bonds to inside analysis, we have you covered with what's expected to be a major day on wall street and for your money. it's wednesday, september 18th, 2024, fed decision day,ed a you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc.
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good morning. thanks for being with us. i'm frank holland. we kuc off the hour with a check on the u.s. stock futures with the dow and s&p trading near record-highs. take a look. you can see futures in the green across the board. asset classes from stocks to fixed income, they could be set for a big swing at 2:00 p.m. today. they're pricing about a 1% swing in either direction inform the aftermath of the fed decision that's widely expected to be a cut. traders pricing in today's expected cut with the 30-year yield sitting at its lowest level since july of 2023. you see the bench market, 3.66, falling about 25 basis points
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since the start of the month. that's your morning set up. we have a lot to get to. investors around the world are bracing for one of the biggest market events of the year. jp ong has the action in singapore. jp, good morning, we begin with you. >> no one in asia is taking chances or risks and everybody is staying quite cautious. while we have korea and hong kong markets off because of a holiday day, the question on everyone's mind is how much should the fed shave the rates by? 25 basis points? 50 basis points? we have to start with the japanese markets. it's not just about the fed. on friday the boj is expecting to make their policy decision. the survey says there is not
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going to be a rate hike from the boj any time soon. the yields, the japanese yen are both worth tracking. elsewhere in the region, you saw australia is flat to the downside. we saw the index in singapore actually seeing a bit of shakiness for lack of a better term. chinese markets looking a bit m more confident, but some of the policy rates in china come friday. there's an exhibitation as the fed lowers their rates, suddenly they might be able to offer a lower rate cut on their end. a lot are firm against the dollar, but only by so much. all bets are off until the fed actually moves. the roundup is similar to tiktok, very demur, very mindful. >> you always have big sayings.
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jp ong live from singapore. good to see you. going over to silvia amaro, i hope you have some catchy sayings. >> i'm not sure i can compete with such a high bar at this stage. let me show you how equities are trading. also in europe, investors very much focused on what the fed is going to communicate later on today. so we are seeing european investors taking a cautious approach so far into today's equity session. we're seeing a bit of pressure when it comes to the ftse 100, almost down half of a percent after earlier data suggests inflation for the month of august came in at 2.2%. this is very important because tomorrow we're going to hear from the bank of england as well and what will be their communication in terms of potential further rate cuts. we also got moments ago, new data suggests that inflation also came in in line of expectations for august. worth noting, that rate f h
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cutting cycle is well ahead. we've already had two rate cuts and the fed. let me show you how the sectors are moving so far into today's session as well. we continue to track what's happening in the banking sector. it is one of the top-performing sectors as well, but indeed worth noting thus far it seems it's a negative story out of europe. posting stronger gains, up 0.2%. one of the corporate stories this morning when monitoring is actually monitoring the potential of the ozempic drug actually targeting price cuts in the united states. that's putting pressure on the overall health care sector, 0.7%. bottom line, frank, all eyes at this stage also on europe when it comes to what the fed is going to tell us later on today. >> silvia, thank you very much.
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we have less than nine hours to go until one of the most anticipated fed decisions in years and what is expecting to be the next move operates. debate continues to swirl over if the fed will cut by 25 basis points or 50 basis points, and according to many of the biggest banks, the answer is just clear with all of them calling for a quarter point cut when that decision is released at 2:00 p.m. eastern time today. for the big banks including jpmorgan and wells fargo they're calling for two back-to-back 50-basis-point rate cuts. that comes from the survey with the majority expecting a quarter cut today, but don't tell that to interest rate traders, the majority still looking for a 50-basis-point cut and according togundlach.
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the fed needs to cut rates pretty quickly, and i think they're going to start with 50 tomorrow. joining me is piper sandler's craig johnson. great to have you here. >> thanks, frank. great to be on the show. >> agree or disagree? >> i disagree. you come back and look at a lot of the economic data that's cocome out lately. the communicate seems okay. look for additional rate cuts later on in the year. >> craig, i know you're about to come on. you have a new note.
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i first want to ask you about this. the s&p equal weight hitting close to an all-time high and the s&p close to an all-time high. thewei weighted ones outperform. i know we're going into a rate-cutting cycle. but the tech stocks have powered the market this year and you're bullish on tech stocks. how can you be bullish on techs and caps at the same time. >> it's a great question. if you look at the time frame, you started to see sort of a shift take place. you started to see the magnificent seven stocks under porping the small cap indexes. we also know when the fed does start cutting rates, which is expected to happen today, that you do tend to see equity markets work and it tends to be more of the interest-sensitive parts of the market that work
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well. that will also benefit the small midcap stocks where you have a lot of financials. again, that's why we think they should outperform. >> speaking of financials, our data team has rustled up some winners a as well. i'm looking mastercard, visa, blackrock and your picks include huntington bank. how can you be bullish on both of these at the same time? how can both benefit from the rate-cutting sielk as the same time we're seeing a slowing economy? >> a lot comes down to the yield curve that's starting to take place. it normalizes.
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that should benefit all the banks across the board. so, again, that's going to be the beneficiary and one of the drivers why these mid/small cap stocks will wark. frank, in terms of tech stocks, they also tend to pick up and do well. you can find a lot of constructive-looking stocks there. as we come out of this, remember one thing. the fed at this point in time usually start to cut rates when the market is 5% to 7% of making an all-time high -- check, we're there right now -- and typically they make it six to nine months after happens. >> if you're believing the small caps t mid caps, the russell, they're going to start to participate and do better, and your s&p target is 1500, do you think it's time to boost it up?
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you sound bullish on almost everything. >> frank, you're absolutely correct. it's a target we raised. i hit more friends by hitting these targets than by putting an outlandish target out there and missing them. from my perspective, we'll evaluate it once we get to that level. >> up 0.75%. craig johnson, also a pleasure to see you. for much more on the market, head over to cnbc.com/pro for insights and analysis. we have a lot more to come to on "worldwide exchange" and the one word you need to know. plus, flipping the script. we'll take a look at the data. plus, inside the room, we speak with former fed vice chair
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down. bond yields are declining and stocks are benefiting from easing financial conditions, but history, it offers little guidance into how both will perform afterward. joining me now is my next guest. good morning. great to see you. >> good morning, frank. great to be with you. >> let's start off where you see opportunities and bonds going into what we expect to be a rate cut from the fed. right now you're seeing a lot of opportunity on the front end of the curve right now, the shorter end bonds. does that thesis change at all if we get a 25- or 50-basis-point cut? >> we take a step back. there's a lot whether it's 25 or 50. we see a credible case for either, but we think it's more important for investors to keep in mind the strategic path and policy here, and that is that the fed is likely to adjust policy by 200 to 250 basis
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points here and coming back to expectations here, we think the bond yields tend to benefit the two-year part of the treasury yield curve, but core bonds more bronldly stand to benefit, and as investors, we have to be nimble, active, dynamic on our exposures and does that help to elongate the cycle? then that will be beneficial for bonds and risk assets or do we have a situation where the economy slows more than anticipated? in that case, bonds also have an important rate. high yields means they can provide protection against downside risks. you want to be a bit more mindful if your portfolio. >> that might be the theme of this show, more mindful, more demur.
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do you agree this is a normalization cut? okay. i want to show your chart for the s&p's performance, the 2-year yield and the 10-year yield. i'm looking at the inflation right now. would that kind of performance from equities, why are bonds attractive? that seems good. obviously there could be outliers either way, but why are bonds attractive at all when you can get it over three months? >> one of the key points we make is after the first fed rate cut determines what happens in the market direction is what happens in the economy and in particular the eve lugs of the labor market. that's what we think the fed is going to be focused today around the balance of risks touting toward downside risks from being more focused on upside risks to inflation. in that sort of variant where i
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that have calmed, downside to growth in particular, you do want to have bonds in your portfolio because they can perform that strategic role that they're supposed to, which is to buffer your portfolio when you do encounter episodes of downside growth and concern over market volatility. we saw that in early august. that's a strategic advantage. we saw that last year in terms of the u.s. regional banking crisis, that is why we still think that is a credible case for more balanced exposures. many investors looked at risk assets for higher yields and those investors are still rebalancing their allocations to take into account they're in a higher yield. >> you also mentioned opportunities when it comes to corporate bonds. at the same time, we're seeing economic slowdown. we're not sure how much softness
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we're seeing in the labor market. but when we're looking at it, what's most attractive in your mind? is this the time to bench fit from that or do you want to go with a higher rated bond? >> it's interesting that you say how hot the hard landing is, the we we actually look at it is how soft would the soft landing be because the current economic data suggests that the u.s. economy is still fundamentally fine. it's slowing, decelerating, though the tracker is indicating that the u.s. economy is about 3% in the third quarter. that's still a decent clip above potential growth the labor market is cooling, not collapsing. we still think there's a case. under the hood within those sectors, there's lots of interesting opportunities to be found. actually interesting within investment grade, you can find interesting opportunities in
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b-rated companies. many companies in the sector are working harter, demonstrating greater. so investors can earn an attractive fed premium by having exposure to that cohort. >> great to see you. thank you very much. >> thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," we have your big "money movers" and a mu multi-billion dollar nasa contract sending this stock to the moon. we're back right after this. now is a great time to take a look at getting a safe step walk-in tub. with safe step's standard heated seat and new fast fill faucet, you can enjoy a nice warm bath up to 20% faster! and the convenient touch pad control is right at your fingertips. each tub comes standard with a dual hydrotherapy system. the ten water jets can help increase mobility, relieve pain, boost energy, and improve sleep. while the microsoothe advanced air therapy system
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time now for your big "money movers." we start with nippon's takeover bid for u.s. steel that may be delayed until after the election. according to reports the suggestion is that they refile their application. that extechblds the review clock. nippon steel declined to comment. the fed takes center stage, but there are a few things with august housing starts. they've been going gangbusters recently. that hit a new high yesterday. it's up 10% in the past month. individual homebuilders have also been rallying. the top performer in the last week has held up for more than 16%. >> shares of intuitive machines,
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they're soaring after the company land as nearly $5 billion plan. it will provide for missions in near spice extend fromearth to beyond the moon. it's the first soft landing on the moon for a u.s. entity in 50 years. ferguson enterprises closed yesterday on a high. they're the leader in the u.s. infrastructure labor market. they're critical for residential and nonresidential. they received a boost from tech spending on artificial intelligence. >> if you look at our nonresidentials by, you would have traditionally call it
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office, hotel, warehouse, that's largely been challenged. it's been taken up by large projects north of $400,000 in construction value. that's been a bullish sign. data energy activity, power, underwater/wastewater, and that's taken the place of the traditional work. >> you mention data centers and water supply construction. is that due in part to the quote, unquote ai or is there a reason they're building that out? >> it is. you look at the amount of energy. it's like nothing we've seen. they continue to get larger, and those projects are, quite frankly, very good for us as a company because there's on and off-site water distribution up through mechanical piping
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systems, fire suppression, and the industrial side from a pipe valve and fitting perspective. those are large projects that set up well for a company like ours. >> murphy added he believes rate cuts will give them a boost but it will take some time. he's cautiously optimistic about the economy and their youtz look for 2025. ferguson enterprises was cautiously optimistic auring a margin guy answer of 9.5%. you can see the full interview with kevin murphy and hear the rest of his comments about iowa and the industrials. you can go to cnbc.com. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," inside the room where it happens, stformer fed vice chair roger ferguson will have more. chick us out on apple,
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it's just about 5:30 a.m. here in new york and there's a lot more ahead on "worldwide exchange." the clock is ticking for the fed and its highly anticipated rate decision. a lot of questions about how big the fed will go, 25 basis points or 50 basis points ahead of that decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. we're going to take you inside the fed's mind-set with former
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fed vice chair roger ferguson. it is wednesday, september 18th. you're watching "worldwide exchange" right here on fed decision day. state right here with us. ♪ and welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. let's get you ready for the trading day ahead. again, it is fed decision day. we pick up a check of the u.s. fed stock futures. take a look. they're in the green across the board. we're also checking the bond market. there's a price expected cut with a 30-year yield hitting its lowest level since july 2023. the benchmark at 3.66, following 25 basis points since the start of september. okay, that's your money morning setup. our silvana he anyhow is here with our top corporate stories.
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good morning to you. >> the microsoft, blackrock, uae are looking to raise more than $100 billion for ai data infrastructure and the power to global them. the group aims to raise an initial $30 billion. meanwhile boeing and its largest union will resume contract talks today along with federal mediators after failing to agree on key issues of wages and pensions yesterday. the international association of machinists and aerospace workers has been on strike since friday and ask pushing for a 40% raise over 4 years. that is well above boeing's rejected 25% offer. and former president trump says he would, quote, get salt back if he was elected in
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november. he signed reductions into law back in 2017. the comments come just one day before the former president holds a rally on long island. that's a region disproportion at massachu ly hit. investors have largely mad up their minds that the fed will cut rates, but the debate remains whether it will go 25 basis points or 50 basis points. this morning, they believe the fed's going to go zbik with a 50-basis-point cut. 84% of those polled, that i see a 25% basis point cut. we bring in our next midguests.
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roger, i'm going to start off with you. have you ever seen a time before that you can remember where there's so many question wls it's going to be a 25-basis-point cut or 50. >> it's unusual that they started to emerge on friday out of newspaper articles. i think it's going to be a very good discussion. i don't think it will be intense. it will be collegial. we'll all learn at 2:00 what the consensus is. >> rachel, hear on cnbc we look at every economic report. do you follow these and are the bigger ones more minor? >> i guess the answer is all of
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the above. officials are talking about this very wide dashboard to fill in the picture of the economy to surprise them over and over. what i think has been interesting about the last couple of months is it feels like there's been quite a bit of weight attached to the incoming data point. first the august jobs numbers would tell us one way or the other what cut we could expect. then we got the august cpi. still, that overall picture is a little bit murky, even though we have an economy that's looking strong. now we're just waiting to see what the fed officials decide to make of all of it. >> roger, coming over to you, how do you view the slowdowns we see in not only the economy but the disruptions we've seen in the market. do they look at both of those when it comes to weighing out their decision? >> obviously as rachel said, i
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think that's a great phrase. they're data point dependent. they're aware of market sentiment and aware of financial conditions, the fact that the market has been rallying lends some forward momentum to the economy, and as rachel's implied, they'll be looking at the whole range of all the data. it's all against the backdrop of an economy that's fundamentally strong. the slowing has been desiring because the labor market is getting back in the balance. so the real question is not whether or not the slowing is desired. the question is for your the future, what do they have to do to make sure the slowing doesn't get out of hand and to keep it balanced so they achieve that thing called the soft landing. that's really what the discussion is going to be about today. >> do they still believe we're firmly on pace for the soft landing?
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are they seeing a situation where the soft landing is in jeopardy and the 50-basis-point cut is there and it's overdue? >> i think the move is quite optimistic. fed officials have been so humble and tried to approach it very subtly. but i would say the mood is quite quite optimistic. i think it's important to note that kind of slowing is not signaling, you know, mass layoffs or a spiking unemployment rate. it's more about could that kind of vulnerability, could the cracks that are slowing that we're starting to see escalate and how much region is there for the fed to get out in front of it. also it's important to note the fed rate is coming down because they've finally secured that level of assurance. they just want to be able to
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land the plane in it keeps things under control. so. >> so, roger, is there a chance we're overthinking it? there are people like jeff gundlach who said generally it just follows the 2-year. it just has to come down. is there any credence to jeff gundlach? >> i think the bigger picture story is you just heard, it's trying to land a rather complicated, large plane. also they're very focused on what is basically a small distinction between 25 and 50 basis points in the larger picture, which is they're going to be gradually moving rates down. the challenge is they don't know where they're going to end. and so that is actually the more
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serious conversation. it's too early to have it, but we should recognize the big theme is inflation has started to come down. they're gaining confidence. i put a footnote on the inflation story. the last core cpi reading is handling it at a 3.2. we should be careful. yes, the economy is still very strong 678 the most recent gdp number from the atlanta fed was at a 3% growth annually. so there's a lot of data to consider, all of which says they should be moving down, but at a more cautious pace as opposed to it's mechanical, let's just get going. >> roger, rachel, we're almost out of time. 25 or 50 basis points for this meeting. what about november? are we going to still get a cut,
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or is that still in question? >> no, i think we're on a path toward reducing rates. rates are in restrictive territory. we don't know how faring but i would expect cuts into next year as long as the economy performs as currently expected and they maintain confidence that inflation is coming down. >> rachel, same question? >> i mean it will get a little bit of a sense with the projections that come out at 2:00. it will give guidance to where rates might settle. but november is the election. i don't want to suggest that that will sway the fed's decision one way or the other, but any announcement that comes out the week of the election will carry out that consequence. >> a lot to think about there. great to see you both. thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," mixed fortunes for big tech in europe as meta goes under thmi ce kerow skroep while
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secret. and marriott has a buy rating of a $267 price target. google winning its challenge to overturn a fine. the u.s. general court looked at the findings concerning googles's search and its ads. meta will face new fines over its alleged efforts to dominate the market. it could come as early as next month. elsewhere, inflation comings out at 2.2% in august. that data comes ahead of the bank of england's policy decision tomorrow. and shares of campari are falling. the italian spirits citing personal reasons for his expect. coming up, the one word
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about 1.5%. dreamforces going on. yesterday sales force announced a collaboration with nvidia. microsoft up about a third of a percent. cisco up about a quarter of a percent as well. a key component of the race will be larm amounts of american gas. our brian sullivan has been speaking with a top name, including cheniere. >> we're here at the gas tech conference here in houston, texas. top of mind for companies like cheniere, they're one of the biggest lng liquefied gas exporters in the world is the price of natural gas, because as you know, it's been cheap. it's been stuck at two bucks and change. we sat down with the ceo jack fusco, and i've been asking how much gas prices benefit his
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company. >> a lot. we track the investment the world is making in natural gas infrastructure, so today there's about $1.5 trillion going in to build natural gas power plants, natural gas pipelines, refilling for lng. of that investment, over half of it is already for construction. >> low prices benefiting cha near. you might have heard about the pause on the lng facility. they may benefit from that as well. but what about the news of the day? that, of course, the federal reserve. companies like cheniere borrow billions of dollars. i also asked jack how much does the fed and its decision matter to his company? >> absolutely. we've got -- we've invested $45 billion into our two sites. of the $45 billion, there's 25 billion in dead.
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while we dohave near-term, it matters. >> every dollar, fed rate cut will matter. that's the big news of the day from the gas tech conference in houston, frank. back to you. >> brian sullivan making his return to "worldwide exchange." coming up, the moves to make with your money and what's expected to be a major trading day. and if you vns all right, follow our podcast. if you missed "worldwide plchange," check us out on ape, spotify, and other podcast apps. we'll be right back after this break. (man 1) oh no, no, no, no, no, no! (man 2) what's my next step? oh! ugh. (girl) dad. (vo) you break it. we take it. (woman 2) we can take it. (vo) trade in any phone, in any condition at verizon for the new google pixel 9 with gemini. (man 2) give me a recipe with these ingredients.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for your w.e.x. wrap-up. the steel offer will be delayed until after the fed cut rate decision. the director of 23andme has resigned. she wants to take it private. according to a memo to employees, she commits to going private. apple's in talks with jp morgan to take over the giant's
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credit card program from interest goldman sachs. it's adding key elements and the decision has not been decided. steve cohen has been stepping back. he will remain as co-chief investment officer. elliott management telling one of southwest's top unions it still wants to replace bob el elliott to shake up the board. they want executive director kelly to leave sooner than his departure date. intuitive lands a contract from nasa for some missions. >> investors, they're preparing for that one big event to watch today, the fed decision day. the fed is expected to hand down its decision at 2:00 p.m. eastern followed by a conference at 2:30 p.m. eastern. the markets are coming off a
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mixed decision with the s&p inching close to another all-time high. let's bring in mark smith. good morning. great to have you here. >> good morning, frank. >> big market today. what's your word of the day? >> today we've waited two years for the fed to drive down inflation. it's the first time we can have that mission accomplished sign possibly and get that elusive soft landing. the fed has two mandates. the first is to keep inflation low, right, and the second is to keep unemployment rates low. they're accomplishing both of those things and the market's at all-time highs, and so that in my definition is a soft landing. they have accomplished what many
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have thought was something impossible, something that's only happened twice in the last 70 years, and so that's what they've been able to do. you look at the numbers. 7% of inflation is down from what it was. >> you're keeping us in suspension. what's the word of the day? you didn't tell us. >> stagflation, you do not want to have it. it means your pricings aren't going anywhering either up or down, and that's a killer to the economy and the markets. you don't want it. stagflation is the word of the day. >> it sounds like you're concerned about something that jeff gundlach is also concerned about. he was speaking to scott wapner yesterday. i want to blake the sound bike and let me see if you agree or disagree with jeff gund lam's stake. >> i think we have a serious chance of deflation with what's
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occurring. when i look at oil and the price of commodities broadly and layoffs that are coming, which may lead to zero wage growth, i think the fed is well behind the curve and should get their act together. >> it sounds like you guys are considered about some similar topics. and he also said the fed needs to cut by 50 basis points. >> i'm not seeing that 50 basis points is needed based on the data. i do see there will be potential layoffs, but we haven't seen them to any massive degree yet. if i'm the fed, i want to have some tools in my toolbox. if i go 50 basis points now and another 25 basis points in a month or two, what can i do if we start hitting a recession. the fed doesn't have many tools,
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so i would be more measured. but i do agree with gwenundlach that we need to be focused. >> we're all expecting a cut, 25 or 50 basis points, we don't know yet. do you think they actually move higher even if we only get that quarter-point cut? >> if i'm a ceo of a company, i'm just as ecstatic the rates are going lower because it makes it cheaper to borrow capital. whether it's 50 or 25 basis points, completely irrelevant. i'm happy to tell my employees, my treasury, my ceo we can borrow at smaller levels. >> that's the ceo. you have two picks for us. one is materials. a cyclical sector you see moving
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higher. the other is a goal. it feels like you're giving mixed messages. >> listen, we were at all-time highs behalf i got on. as an investor, you've got to be keenly aware of that fact. and so while we're going through this scenario where we're trying to land the plane softly, you've got to be defensive because you don't know if it's going to happen. we could crash into the damn tarmac. what do you have to do? you've got to have goals, materials, industrials. with ai being a major factor, they would do well. that's where it's going to take ai to the next-level. gold is at all-time highs. global demand for gold couldn't be higher. it's a safe haven in case we're all wrong. >> you named two cyclicals already. industrials and materials. do you feel the same way about
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financials? do they also benefit from this quarter point cut and they don't need the 50 basis point cut. very quickly, yes or no yes. good luck doing what we're doing. >> mark, good to see you. thank you for your time. mark smith from wells fargo. one more quick look behalf we be let you go. that does it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" starts right now. ♪ good morning and welcome. yep, the fed's going to blake its decision today. the central bank planning to cut rates beginning a cycle that's somewhat rare and many times positive for a lot of reasons. traders are split on how big the cut is going to be after pretty good numbers yesterday, retail numbers. we're going to talk to an kmim. calling for 125-basis points worth of cuts by the end of the
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year, that is. news breaking early this morning. an eu court overturning a 1.1 million dollar fine for google. and president trump says if he's elected he'll get s.a.l.t. back. we'll talk about what that could mean for taxpayers wednesday, september 18th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ all right, good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. it is a fed day, and obviously the markets are watching that very closely. we're having a little bit of an issue with the board that shows the implied open, but
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