morning. an eu court overturning a 1.1 million dollar fine for google. and president trump says if he's elected he'll get s.a.l.t. back. we'll talk about what that could mean for taxpayers wednesday, september 18th, 2024. "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ all right, good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is off today. it is a fed day, and obviously the markets are watching that very closely. we're having a little bit of an issue with the board that shows the implied open, but here's a

look at the move you're going to see with u.s. equity futures right now. by the way, it's basically no movement. no direction one way or the other. anybody who has wanted to place their betting on this has. yesterday the s&p and doucet new intraday highs. you can see where things stand right now, and we'll continue to watch and wait. i think it's almost -- i know you hate all eyes, but all eyes at least in the financial markets are on this today, in the financial markets, if you qualify with that total eyes in the country -- >> -- probably not. >> a few eyes. >> yeah, okay. this is something that will make "nightly news" tonight. they'll make mention of it so it hits the broader population. >> i don't want to characterize

our fellow countrymen as ruges, but definitely all eyes are on the financial wheel. >> you can still bet. >> it's still sitting. i have no idea. you can get on there pretty late. >> but they do let it go around for a while. >> they do. if you were running a wheel where you had to get one number out of 32 and you're trying to get that -- >> 36 -- >> whatever. it's too early to win anything. if i were the house, i would will it that keep going. did you do treasury yields? >> no. very quickly. the 2-year's at 6.317. the european union's general court said earlier a $1.7 billion fine imposed on alphabet should be annulled.

in 2019 european regulators accused google of abusing its market dominance and advertising by restricting third-party clauses on its websites. it prevents rivals from placing their ads on wedsides. they ignored the fine saying the commission failed to take all of the situation into consideration in its assessment. the regulators could appeal the decision a all the way up to the supreme court. >> this one i was shocked by. you never expect to hear the eu overruling fines set out by american companies. they almost always lose on this, so it was an interests point. it caught me off guard. >> did it make you happy? >> yeah, i think so.

a lot of times i think, leave us alone. microsoft and blackrock are teaming up and apartment nevering with the united arab emirates and also will seek to leverage to as much as $130 billion to potential investments. they'll mostly be fwh the united states in a portion with partner countries. shares of microsoft up by about 0.3%. in ozempic, it's very likely to be one of the drugs with bargaining with the u.s. government's federal program this was at the canter health

care conference yesterday. it allows them to negotiate drug prices with manufacturers. in the first round it slashed the cost of some of the world's ten biggest medicines, anywhere from 38% to 79% for 2026. and the next 15 drugs targeting are expected to be named by early next year. also good to have gottlieb on. when it comes into effect and if the actual discounted price is where you're pretending what the list price is, it's nowhere near what it was. it's a little below. i have mixed feelings.

i see the drug companies spending a lot on advertising, but there is a lot of men spent on development of drugs that do work. there is a number that probably would, you know, cause some better behavior from drug companies, but i don't want to kill the goose. >> i don't either. i don't want to cut any innovation in the country. it's beet a great lifeblood. however, you partner and buy. >> sometimes they spend a lot of money on extending the patent which gives you a couple manufacture years. doctors go along with it.

there's stuff that goes on, but -- >> i mean, i would assume this is something -- i don't know. what has donald trump said about what he would do? he's talked about rolling back the i.r.a. is this what he's considering? >> i think he would say there's waste in medicare. >> negotiate the pause. you're not concerns where he comes down on anything. >> we talked about the s.a.l.t. play. >> it was written in 2017, signed by congress. . if anything is stating.

that's what makes it strong. i certainly didn't get a tax cut. i'm not a fat cat. >> it was the red states over the blue states. >> it's simple. state taxes in new jersey can get as high as 11.5%. do some math and if you used to be able to take that -- come right off your federal income tax. half of it used to come off. >> does that mean ozempic and wegovy could be part of it? >> they could be. former president trump vowing to get s.a.l.t. back if he's reelected, this is what we were just talking about. he said he would eliminate the

cap on state and local tax deductions that he signed into law in 2017. in a post on truth social focused on new york voters, he said, vote for grudge. the trump campaign did not immediately respond to follow up questions. they capped it at $10,000. new york, connecticut, new jersey, all those states. >> w-2 earnings basically have no deductions anymore. as a highly paid tv person, you have an agent maybe? some tv people have agents. >> it never made sense as to why you could write it off as a business expense. you used to be able to. >> why? it should be the blood sucker

write-off or -- >> leech. agents are important at different times in your career. as great as management is and they're always thinking about us, which i think they do, 24 hours a day. >> i'm going to keep myself out of this. in the next 24 hours there's policy -- la-la-la-la. we're going to talk to the city economist who's looking at 125 basis point cuts by the end of the year. that is next. and latest predictions from former vice chair richard clarida. "squawk box" will be right back. i can't believe you corporate types are still at it.

just stop calling each other rock stars. and using workday to put finance and h.r. on one platform. tim, you are a rock star. using responsible ai doesn't make you a rock star. it kinda does. you are not rock stars. (clears throat) okay. most of you are not rock stars. oooh. data driven insights, and large language models. oh, that's so rock roll. it is, right. he gets it. yeah. it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.

♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ create a beautiful website in minutes ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪

ryan t. writes, "moving is stressful. can you help me take one thing off of my to do list?” ugh, moving's the worst. with xfinity, you can transfer your internet in just a few taps. just a few easy moves. did somebody say “easy moves”? ♪ ♪ oh no. no, i was talking about moving your internet. this will move the internet. ♪ ♪ ooh, ooh. -let's keep it professional. professional dancers! -ok! stay connected during your move with the best in home wifi. easily transfer your services in the xfinity app. bring on the good stuff.

interest rates for the first time in four years. we asked our next guest in january about the size and rate cuts this year. >> we had them starting in july and going every meeting after that and then we had a pretty dovish fed to start this year. we pushed that in june and that's been the call since early january. >> veronica clark the with citi and she's sticking to that call. that's 25 basis points today than 50 points at the next two

meetings or 50 basis points today followed by a 25-point cut. she was one of the early economists predicting higher rates. vaeronica joins us now. when you made that call back in april, you sounded a little bit out there, but you've -- >> there were a couple of months that were crazy. we're seeing signs from last year and that weakening has accelerated and the fed has caught onto that and is includingly worried about the sizeof their mandate. >> they still say 50 basis points would not make sense at this point. >> we don't know what's going to happen today. i think 25 is where we can get the most agreement among fed

officials. they have to be such endly dovish to not square mamt. i think there are basis points. >> do you think they're behind the curve? ? >> i think after the july meeting they could have cut. so in that sense you maybe are a bit behind the curve here, the weakening trend of the labor market has just continued this whole year. it might be too late to prevent that at this point. certain will i you want to take the rates closer to neutral. you don't want to do that later but sooner. >> the markets are still in incredible shape historically. it's hard to look at anything as out of control. >> right. the level of the unemployment rate is not necessarily concerning. it's really the change that

matters and when you do see the un34r0i789 rate rising this month, historically it rye cretes a depression. you don't see the signs of layoffs, although, it's true. we have seen it starting to build. if you're looking for wide-spread layoffs, you're too late. >> we're watching inflation, and they're not back to their 2% target. the real mandate that if you look back at fed officials from earring back, alan greenspan in particular would say i don't worry about inflation. i work about the market and the rest takes care of itself. >> i think that's maybe why after we saw the cpi print last week, that's really what led us to change our call from 50 today

to 25 today. the hawks might not be quite on board. maybe 25 is where you can get the most compromise. we do see house coming down. i think that will slowing. generally things are slowing. that is a good sign. >> we spoke with the ceo of kbw earlier this week. you don't want to make 50-basis-point moves. there's a reason for it beyond just worrying about what investors think. it's because banks need that time to make sure things don't go haywire in the loans they're writing too. if you have lockstep 25 basis points, you don't cut that overnight. you go gradually. >> right. >> especially whelp it's not app emergency. >> but it's not unprecedented.

and we gnlt debt the -- didn't get the pullback until 2008. >> in both of those situations you were talking about much bigger problems on the horizon, 2001 and 2007. 2007, everybody knew there was serious stuff on the line, things roiling in tobacco markets that could take a lot of things down. 2001, again, you're talking about very different situations than what we're dealing with today. >> i don't think anyone should conclude we're not seeing that. if u you're waiting to see layoffs, you're already too late. i don't think it's fast enough

for fed officials. >> you're not going to be surprised? >> no, i don't think anyone will be. >> you were calling this very early. what weakness did you see in the labor market at that point? >> it was things like the hiring rate pulling back. we were seeing that end of last year even. the hiring rate is at 10-year lows now. you see that in survey data also. more part-time employment, more decline in hours worked. all of those look like easy ways to cut rates. the longer you're trying to cut labor cuts, the more you slow down hiring. >> people got mad and it totally flipped. you were like for a while, wow,

we caused the market to get way too bullish operate cuts. >> i don't know if we caused it. >> you didn't cause it. but do you remember when they were yelling that the market should have never gotten ahead of itself? for a while you must have been questioning for a couple months there. >> oh, yeah, absolutely. >> then it came back to all the way around. >> it was uncomfortable. >> but you had the luxury -- >> we want to be right. that's the goal. we have the luxury of being abel to look at the data and historical trends and patterns and not get too bogged down in one or two months of data but look at the trend of many months an data sets. to that, that's what it looked like to us. this is the labor market. >> i flipped hourly.

yesterday someone talked me into no cuts whatsoever >> we were way behind the curve. i don't know. i had. thought about it today. >> we'll also try to stay flexible in our views, but we do want it to be grounded in the data first and foremost. >> veronica, thank you. >> thank you. coming up, the end of an era for hedge manager steve cohen. and later at 8:10 we have an exclusive. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean. not spreadsheets... you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our matching platform lets you spend less time searching and more time connecting with candidates. visit indeed.com/hire meet kandi technologies, where innovative, eco friendly design meets exceptional performance. with officially licensed nfl team edition golf carts exclusively available at lowe's. elevate your ride and explore electric investment opportunities. kandi technologies. when you need to prepare for unpredictable adventures... (gasp) you need weathertech. [hot dog splat.] laser measured floorliners front and rear. [drink slurp and splat.] (scream) seat protector to save the seats. [honk!] they're all yours! we're here! hey, i knew you were comin'... so i weatherteched the car!

can we get ice cream? we can now. kid proof your vehicle with american made products at weathertech.com. with gold and copper prices pushing towards all time highs, us gold corp. offers investors leverage to both gold and copper at its project, and mining friendly wyoming. u.s. gold corp has a reserve of almost 1.5 million ounces of gold equivalents. permits to mine zero debt with only 10.73 million shares outstanding and a portfolio of world class american strategic metals assets. wall street forecasts over join$100 billion ge. in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked and inconvenient injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly. from lexarias, patented oral delivery technology trials.

lexaria bioscience, transforming the future of glp-1 drug delivery.

billionaire hedge fund founder steve cohen is no longer trading for his firm. he remains co-chief investment officer but is no longer investing clients' capital. he remains as engaged as ever, but the only change is he'll spend less time on computer screens and spending more time with talent. he built his hedge fund into one of the world's biggest after an insider trading scandal. i didn't see what happened yesterday. did you check the wild-card standings, zbikky? dsh becy? >> i did not. >> who's in there? cantina? let me just see.

no one believed they were going to. they've been doing well recently. are you excited? that's -- >> i don't like the mets. >> you like the yankees? >> i'm actually more of a white sox fan. >> oh, that's been fun for you. >> it wasn't ugly back in the ' 80s. >> they're not doing well now. in general, that has not been a good team for me. dead last. >> do you even know what i'm whistling? >> yeah. you're giving me time to figure these things out. why would you be a white sox

fan? >> i don't know. why do you like the jets or any -- if you're a loyal fan, you can be on board with them. >> i like the bingles as jim nance would say. 23andme independent director is resigned yesterday. earlier this year they rejected the proposal to take the company private. the director said they haven't yet seen a take private offer from wojiccki. the genetic testing company went public in 2021 through a spac. since then, the share price has been in a freefall, wojcicki

owns 40% of the voting rights and was looking to own the rest that she didn't own. >> did everyplace know steven cohen owns the mets? >> i assumed. that's why i said the mets. >> he's got a lot of money. you have lindor. i kind of like the mets. not a big yankee fan. still don't like the yankees. >> see, that's just it. you have your hometown team you stick with. >> i still like george steinbrenner who's paying for stealing everybody's else's players with money. don gull it. that's the one that gets me. coming up, a new program promises a big payment. and in the next hour we're going

to talk tax policy and more with house speaker mike johnson. as we head to break, he's a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business. next-level moments need the next-level network. honestly, i don't do a whole lot here. i'm really just here for the at&t internet, it's super-fast so, any pre-launch concerns? what if nobody buys them? that's mean or, what if everybody buys them? oh, i hadn't thought of that that's probably not gonna happen can we handle that kind of traffic? the network can handle it! i downloaded eight hours of true crime stories just during our last video call i'm learning a lot over 90% of cobalt used in batteries comes from china. electra battery materials, awarded $20 million by the u.s.

department of defense, is bringing the battery supply chain home, reducing dependance on china and revitalizing our industrial base. meet kandi technologies, where innovative, eco friendly design meets exceptional performance. our diverse portfolio includes utvs, go carts, golf carts and e-bikes. explore electric investment opportunities. kandi technologies. (cheerful music) (phone ringing) [narrator] not all multi-millionaires built their wealth the same way, you have... the fearless investor. the type a cpa. the bootstrapper. the bootmaker. yeehaw [narrator] but many do have something in common. we all trust schwab with our wealth. [narrator] thanks to our award-winning service, low costs and transparent advice. every day, over a million multi-millionares trust schwab with more than two trillion dollars of their wealth.

good morning, everybody, and welcome back to squeks. 're live if there the market site at times square. stock futures are relatively calm at the moment. this is kind of everyone waiting to see what happens with the federal reserve later on today. will it be a 25-basis-point cut or a 50-basis-point cut and what will the chairman say, what will his tone be? yesterday the s&p app and doucet all-time intraday highs. >> i'll have to ask eamon about

that coming up, a new segment, "jibber-jabbers." eamon joins us now with more. does this mean payouts for whistle-blowers for things going on in the discuss it is department itself? not there? >> it's corporate fraud, joe. >> of course. of course. nothing you see here in the department of justice -- >> believe pme, if i knew about in fraud you had committed here, i would call . >> i was kidding, sort of not kidding. i think that's a great idea they should pay whistle-blowers within that department, but they didn't mean, that did they?

>> let me tell you what they did meechblt if you know anything, the department of justice wants to hear from you. they'll pay informants of corporate wrongdoing if the information leads to a forfeiture of over $1 million. it could add up to a lot, people bringing in exclusive information about corporate broncdoing could be entitled to 30% of the first $100 million in proceeds forfeited and up to 57 of any proceeds between $100 million to $500 million. to get that payout, you need to have valuable previous and known information, one, crimes involving financial institutions, foreign corruption, domestic corruption involving companies, and health care fraud schemes targeting private insurers. the head of the department laid

out the goals for the newests late last night. here's what she said. >> our tip line is open. if you see something, please say something. we're sending a message to company executives and to leadership. invest in compliance and take internal reports of wrongdoing seriously. >> bear this in mind. if you're in on the crime, you're not entitled to get paid. if you were a key player in the crime, the dj offers you another kind of incentive, and that's called a plea gar bargain. back over to you guys. >> i guess -- do you expect this to inkroo is the number of cases, eamon? i would -- >> i do actually. >> you do? >> i would think employees would

be doing there already out of the of corporate pride and where they're working. but you think if there's some money -- >> with what we've seen over the years with the s.e.c. whistle-blower program over at the irs is that it does incents advise people to come forward because those people take enormous risks, right, and it's easier to keep your head down and go along to get along. this share,s and incentivizes people, if you come to us, you can make millions of dollars. i know one guy who made $100 million as a result of this. you could make a lot of money doing this. >> did you say $100 million? >> $100 million, yeah. that's brad fell kenberg, the ubs whistle-blower. the government kwamts to shake them loose and give them the extra push by saying, hey, you're taking a lot of risks, this is very uncomfortable, we

get it, but come to us. we'll protect your anonymity. those are areas where there are no existing whistle-blower programs right now. so not covered by the circumstance or s.e.c. in type frp cracks in the exiting whistle-blower number are. >> what was that number again? >> i'm back to -- this was not your idea, totally me, amon, but i still think within the justice department itself, if you know anything, i would urge them, go back in history. i would kick in something, too. physician, heel thyself. >> anywhere. that's my point. not singling out the doj.

but physician, heel thyself. >> you are a little bit. >> you're fine. it has nothing to do with you. i take responsibility. >> eamon and i want out of this triple box. when we come back, dueling tax plans. the next president is likely to face some resistance on capitol hill. we'll get into that next. and a reminder for you, you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily pcaodst. follow squawk pod on your favorite podcast, and you can listen any time. we'll be right back. trading opp, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley with gold and copper prices pushing towards all time highs, us gold corp. offers investors leverage to both gold and copper at its project, and mining friendly wyoming.

u.s. gold corp has a reserve of almost 1.5 million ounces of gold equivalents. permits to mine zero debt with only 10.73 million shares outstanding and a portfolio of world class american strategic metals assets. u.s. gold corp, join the golden age. your shipping manager left to "find themself." leaving you lost. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. sponsored jobs on indeed are two and a half times faster to first hire.

visit indeed.com/hire (♪♪) car, this isn't the way home. that's right james, it isn't. car, where are we going? we're here. (♪♪) surprise!!! the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. car, were you in on this? nothing gets by you james. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund

investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com plans could face resistance on capitol hill. joining us now is the chief

policy strategist brian gardner. let me throw this out there. we've been looking at the tax policies, trying to figure out what's been on. we've had multiple people come to us and say don't listen to what the candidates are saying, that's not what they'ringe real going to do. how do you figure out what the pax plan is and how you score any of this? >> you're kind of groping through the dark. that's the problem of this campaign. there's not a lot of detail, there's not a lot of specificity, and, you know, we saw yesterday with donald trump just putting out a tweet about the s.a.l.t. deduction, state and local tax deduction, throwing it out kind of willy-nilly. what exactly is in, out of the plans? it's -- it's tougher than usual to figure out what both candidates are really standing for. what is clear is there is a -- there is a dual competition, both of them, to pander as much as possible. you know, that's always part of politics. that's nothing new.

but they're taken to olympic levels. these guys are getting gold medals in pandering. >> so trying to dig through all of that with that huge number of grains of salt that you take all of this, how do you break it down? what do you tell clients when they're asking you what does this mean? what's likely to make it through congress, what's not. we don't know what's going to make up congress. it seems pretty confusing. >> so, you know, i look at the big picture items. really the big picture is that there are sunsets. that's going to drive a debate, regardless of whether it's kamala harris or donald trump that drives the debate. we can be relatively sure it's going to be a closely divided congress, whether it's formally split, house and senate, we kind fof know the senate's going to

be 41-59, maybe 42-48 at the most. the house tends to go either way. that just dictates that whatever happens with that tax debate, not to mention you have a 35 trillion dollar debt and both tax plans add to the debt, we're holding on to what the likely outcomes are. they're extending the short-term, maybe a little longer term, some of the expiring previsions, but with some changes as well. >> look, brian, the s.a.l.t. stuff was in the 2017, so did you do the math? if we extend all the 2017 tax cuts and part of the way that they weren't quite as bad was because of the s.a.l.t. >> joe, despite what your doctor is telling you, the salt is good for you.

the cap on the s.a.l.t. is good for you. >> it wasn't good for me but for the drn. >> if you take off the s.a.l.t. caps and extend -- >> you're in the $6 trillion range for ten years. >> that's bad. it would be good for me. i'm starting to think, if we're going to do this crazy green stuff where we build two charging stations for $40 billion and we're going to give intel money when they're going down the tubes, if we're going to do this -- we spend so much money to get to $35 million on terrible stuff. i'm ready. if we're going to blow out the deficit, at least something good should come from it. >> that's fine. maybe that's what trump was getting at. just blow it all up.

becky, don't you want your s.a.l.t. back? >> i worry about how much we're spending. >> if we're going to spend it anyway on the transition -- >> i don't think any of it comes back. samt doesn't come back because it was such a political issue at the time. >> i want mine. >> what we're talking about, what drives the debt and deficit is still the entitlement side. it's not so much the annual spending debate. it's the entitlement debate. >> not medicare and social security. that's -- >> they'll run out of money within ten years. >> you can fix that in certain ways, but what it is the unfunded safety net stuff that we do, which is now out of control. it used to be $7,000. i don't know. 30 years ago. it's $34,000 now. >> no, i mean.

>> you're talking medicaid, food stamps. >> when you look at entitlements, on the entitlement side, revenues do not keep pace without. and it's very clear. but it's not just medicare and social security. >> all that other stuff. >> 70% of the annual outlays in the government are interest on the debt, social security, medicare, and that's becoming a bigger piece of the overall pie. that's the driver. annual spending is not the driver of debts an deficits. >> we've got to go. but we've got the speaker of the house mike johnson joining us later. what would you want to ask him? >> get the bill on the floor,

rip the band-aid off. the senate is going to pass a clean cr and the house will be forced to accept it. how long does he want to keep the house in session because the i think there are vulnerable republicans who really want to get home to campaign. they don't want to be in washington talking about this stuff. >> brian, check this out. it was a week ago, joe graham and jodie arrington. well fay. means tested programmes, not medicare and social security are what's behind today's massive debt. >> i'm a huge phil graham fan and i think the analysis was wrong. >> so social security and medicare will become a drain, but at this point it's the means tested social welfare spending that's far and away. it's 72.6% of the unobligated revenue. you can't argue with it. it's all just numbers.

>> no. i think what -- over time, that reve revenuesing are have failed to keep pace. i don't think they're identifying the entitlement side. i don't think they're identifying the correct -- the correct matchups of revenue and spending. >> okay. brian, thank you. >> sure thing, guys. "squawk box" will be right back.

still to come, the fed widely expected to cut rates later today. up next, predictns aiond the potential impact from judy

shelton. and later, we'll talk to richard clarida. "squawk box" will be right back. indeed! everyone 45+ at average risk should screen for colon cancer. these folks are getting it done at home with me, cologuard. cologuard is a one-of-a-kind way to screen for colon cancer that's effective and non-invasive. it's for people 45+ at average risk, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider for cologuard. i did it my way.

>> university of maryland

global campus is a school for real life, one that values the successes you've already achieved. earn up to 90 undergraduate credits for relevant experience and get the support you need from your first day to graduation day and beyond. what will your next success be?

we're just hours away from the fed's decision on interest rates. joining us now, judy shelton, nominated by former president trump to the federal reserve board, a senior fellow with the independent institute and her new book "good as gold: how to unleash the power of sound money" is out october 8th. thanks for joining us. judy, the -- you're going to be subjected to the prerequisite questions on, you know, maybe not how we got here, and, you know, and the intelligence of how we run our monetary system,

but just, you need to tell me 25, 50, more, less, how many total, it is fed day, so that's what you got to do. what do you think it will be today? >> i think it will be 25. it is so funny, you say fed day, because all of us who are fixated on the fed and obsessed with monetary policy think that's a huge deal. if you told your cousins or your neighbors, it's fed day, i'm not sure they would respond so enthusiastically. but i think it will be 25, because for all the fed says about not being political, i think 50 would definitely expose them to accusations of being political. there is a compelling case that they shouldn't be doing anything. and they would be the ones who have long been making it. which is that you wouldn't want monetary stimulus at a time when you have good economic growth.

you have relatively low unemployment. you still haven't hit your target, you had pretty strong consumer spending, the august retail numbers. and we have huge fiscal stimulus going on. so, i'm not sure they made the case for why is now the time to start cutting. >> but, judy, did you just make the case that the fed has been navigating the current environment pretty well for the past couple of years? >> no. i did not. >> you could make that case, though, given all the good things you said. we don't even need to cut, rates are low, unemployment is low. what is not to like? >> i think that -- i think that's in spite of what the fed has been doing. i've long said that i don't think their framework for analyzing the transmission of

their monetary policy decisions, i'm on record as saying they should have stopped in december 2022 when the rate was 4.25 to 4.5. and then -- the continuous hands on approach -- >> yeah, we got some of that. now i think we lost it completely. but it was -- i didn't hear the last 30 seconds clearly on -- so we will -- not going to say it. do you say we're going to effort? is that a word? we're going to effort. it is not a verb, is it? >> no. >> tv people think they sound smart what they say it. i don't want to sound smart, i

think. >> congratulations. >> because i'm so successful? judy, is she gone, evans? so are we -- are we trying to get her back? we're not efforting anything? it is not promising. okay. got a little bit out of it. what she said, yeah, fed day to most of the country is like, if you're going to, like, the golden corral and put the feed bag on, right? >> yeah. we analyze it a lot more. i think it does matter, this probably is the most important fed meeting we had in years. i think it is probably fair to say that. >> we had someone talk about how exciting an easing cycle is. really the guy was having trouble sleeping at night. so excited about the upcoming easing cycle. yeah. 7:00 a.m. 7:01 on the east coast. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. apologies to judy shelton. was that a zoom? >> there was some internet connection issue somewhere. >> i'm joe kernen with becky

quick. andrew is on assignment. the top stories we're watching, it is probably the most anticipated fed decision in years. on the way up, it was anticipated that we were -- we were anticipating a pause and then it was a pause and then one more hike and then another more extended pause and now the actual direction might be different and we'll go from a hiking cycle to where rates actually start to go back down. the debate continues to swirl over whether it will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. and some people can't figure out why it is going to be anything at all. other people think we really need to get started because there is a lag effect that we haven't seen yet and things are definitely weakening. >> judy shelton in that camp, which includes some of the democratic senators like elizabeth warren. >> they want to cut. >> yeah. >> just weird -- >> you can get -- you can literally get opposite

viewpoints from people that have good reasons. >> looking at data points too. >> looking at data. supporting many of the biggest banks, the answer is clear, goldman sachs, bank of america, citigroup, barclays and more are calling for a quarter point cut. did we look at fed funds. probably came down yesterday with the retail sales. >> i would guess. >> we were above 50% for 50 basis point cut, we'll have more on the fed in a few minutes. the uaw plans to hold a vote in the coming days to authorize a strike at local chapters of stellantis. that's a parent company of chrysler, dodge and jeep. uaw president shawn feign called out stellantis for failing to keep the promises it agreed to after the six-week strike last fall. and jpmorgan is in talks with apple about taking over that company's credit card program. "the wall street journal" report said discussions started earlier

this year and have advanced in recent weeks, but the price still hasn't been negotiated. >> i think jpmorgan was looking for below par. at least that is according to "the wall street journal" on what they would do to take that over. take a look at the futures this morning. not a whole lot of movement ahead of what we are waiting on, for that big fed decision. we want to get over to frank holland with a look at some of the morning's premarket movers. >> good morning, becky. we're looking at shares of blackrock and microsoft. both higher this morning. they're collaborating on a new fund focused on a.i. data centers that could total as much as $100 billion. it is call the global artificial intelligence infrastructure and investment partnership. acronym, i won't do it. they'll look to raise an initial $30 billion and microsoft ceo said in part the partnership brings together financial and industry leaders to build the infrastructure of the future and power it in a sustainable way. schauer blackrock up 2%. looking to ge healthcare, moving

higher on a btig upgrade. shares up almost 1%. they also moved their price target up to $100 a share. you can see it is trading at $87.50. that implies 12% upside move. the company is moving past a tough first half of the year where weakness in china weighed on results and now that ge healthcare removed the potential tailwind of chinese government stimulus from their guidance, they see a more attractive setup for an earnings beat. shares of ge healthcare up almost 1%. and we also have sirius xm, upgrade from guggenheim neutral to buy, rising the price target by $1 to $30 a share. that implies a 30% upside. analysts say the stock will benefit long-term from the split off acquisition with liberty media and have greater financial flexibility going forward. you can see, though, shares year to date down more than 50%. becky, back over to you. >> frank, thank you very much. we'll see you in a little bit. coming up, the morning show

on a morning show. filmmaker and actor mark duplass, placed chip, i talked about him, he reminds me so much of one of our former producers. this guy is amazing as -- if you're in this business, they got a lot of it right, they got a lot of it right. and nobody got it more right, i think, than that guy, or maybe billy crudup, who knew he was married to naomi watts. but the apple tv series joins us to talk streaming media, and more. that's next. and later, house speaker mike johnson joins us to talk about his funding plan, and a possible government shutdown. also, the two different economic -- what would you call it overall schemes of the respective candidates. we'll ask him all about that and the election and much more. "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome to the now way to network... they switched to juniper's ai-native network. and now, everything is so reliable... that no one is ever left in the dark. that's the now way to network at work, with real ai—for an experience— that's so lit! ♪♪ (woman 1) all right, here we go. thauggggh.lit! (man 1) oh no, no, no, no, no, no!

(man 2) what's my next step? oh! ugh. (girl) dad. (vo) you break it. we take it. (woman 2) we can take it. (vo) trade in any phone, in any condition at verizon for the new google pixel 9 with gemini. (man 2) give me a recipe with these ingredients. (girl) let's do that one. (vo) only on verizon.

pete g. writes, "my tween wants a new phone. how do i not break the bank?" we gotcha, pete. xfinity mobile was designed to save you money and gives you access to wifi speeds up to a gig. so you get high speeds for low prices. better than getting low speeds for high prices. right, bruce? -jealous? yeah, look at that. -honestly. someone get a helmet on this guy. xfinity internet customers, ask how to get a free 5g phone and a second unlimited line free for a year. switch today!

welcome back. streaming continues to dominate hollywood with netflix, max and apple tv plus bringing home a majority of emmy wins behind fx. joining us now to talk streaming and much more is actor, writer and producer mark duplass. his latest independent series "penelope" debuts on netflix next week. he also plays chip on "the morning show" on apple tv plus, a character we know and love well. thank you for coming. >> i feel like we know you. >> we do. it is a weird thing. >> i've been shadowing you guys for years, ripping off all your

great stories. >> a few better. >> ego mania that is combined with insecurity that is talent. >> it is a fascinating world to be able to play. i've been preaching independent films for years. i started off making $3 movies in my kitchen with my brother. and i know the stress of having to wrangle talent, but once i realized that, you know, the morning show, you have this extra live element, that was really fun to bring to chip and that character. >> it is really fun here every day too. why don't we talk about what you're working on right now. that is "penelope," something you produced independently, but now you brought it to netflix. that's a different sort of way about going about things. >> yeah. >> what is "penelope" and why did you do it this way? >> it is a story of a 16-year-old girl who is feeling a little lost and leaves behind the trappings of modern society and her technology to abscond into the woods. something i wrote during the pandemic. something i felt was deeply important for the culture.

i think i have two daughters. i want them to see role models that aren't doing what just happens on euphoria, a show that i love. but i want them to be able to seeing some else. and what we're seeing in the business right now unfortunately is the depth of the streaming wars. we got companies like netflix and apple and hbo, they all went to war with each other, they made too much stuff, they spent too much money, they're not profitable and now they're freaking out. so the answer to that is to make homogenized content that feels like the last thing that was successful. ever look on your streaming services and you're, like, this is another, like, murder show with nicole kidman that is -- like, they all blend in together. >> but that's what the movie business was for a while before streaming. and streaming changed things. >> i'm glad you brought that up, the movie business. i did come up in independent film and something beautiful happened in the '90s, things were becoming homogenized there.

people were forced to go into the independent sector and from there, they got basically independent financiers and a whole ecosystem sprung up around sundance. you make these incredibly interesting movies like in the bedroom, for $2 million, they would go make $50 million at the box office, it was good for the culture, and it was great for business. i am here, basically trying to tell these dying streamers, look, guys, we can do what happened in independent film, we can do that in television. i just have to be willing to lose my shirt in the process in order to do it. i have to take the money i make on "the morning show," go out and milwaukeeake more outlier a "pen "penelope" and say i think this can work. we're seeing the data here. look at the emmys. "baby reindeer" won some of the most awards. it is a small show with no stars, so i'm trying to really encourage people to say this is not just good content, this is good business. >> who finances it?

who looks at that and say, okay, that's something i'm willing to -- >> i have a bevy of ways i do it. but i have always come up betting on myself. for "penelope," i financed it completely myself. i'm doing it now because i have to blaze the trail and i might be like that early painter who dies of scurvy penniless because he blazed a trail. i'm hoping we can start something exciting here. to me, i'm talking to the independent film financiers who watched that business die and saying, come over and finance tv. not only do you get the initial return on your investment, if we make more seasons, you're going to have an ep credit and ep fee, so you got this huge tail, like dividends on your stocks. i'm at the beginning of this big effort. >> it should be the golden age, it really should, for content. and streaming just gives you an opportunity to have more people be able to -- i don't know where we went wrong. >> it is fear-based.

i think that if you look at any business model, not just the entertainment business, once they realize that the subscriptions are coming down, they start to bet on the things that were successful yesterday. this is great -- there is a great metaphor that i -- somebody heard and i wish i could attribute it to them. but i think it was wayne gr gretzky, he said i don't go where the puck is, i go where the puck is going. i think we need to see more of that. but at the same time, i'm pragmatic. i don't want to have to walk in to netflix, who i've known for years and all my friends and say, you should spend all your money on this small show about a girl who runs of into the woods. what i want to do is make an easy yes for them. i want to make it cheaply. i want to share my profits with my main creative collaborators and live to fight another day. >> business and art by definition are strange bedfellows. and ge, for a while, owned nbc

universal. so these guys at ge were watching movie budgets being presented to them and go over budget and they had no idea. and they were so uncomfortable with that business, but if you think about it, that's sort of just the way it is. do you ever -- >> i'm encouraging more healthy co-mingling of business and art. i have two very -- >> that's where they do "game of thrones" too, they want to do something they know is going to work. >> if you bring it to them and it doesn't cost them money -- >> that's the key. that's the key to the business model. and, again, i don't want to sound like a broken record, but i think you to make it an easy yes for them. these executives have to keep their jobs. i don't go in there yelling at them, why aren't you making this? i say, i'm going to come in -- >> this is the same thing that jason blum told us last week. >> jason blum is a friend of mine. he did a really good job in the horror business with that. he's really built an empire. he's incredibly successful. i don't really have aspirations

for jason because to me, the creative element of this at its core is who i am. i have learned over the years that unless i'm thoughtful about the business model, i'm not going to get to make my stuff. >> and if you went to netflix with any other proposition, they would take over creative control at some point. >> that's another big part of it, the lower cost you make something, the more independently you make it, the more creative control you ahave to make what you want to make. i think artur driven stuff is what they want. you can spend much money on the next "game of thrones" sequels, or a show, one is going to turn into "baby reindeer," you're going to look smart in the business this is obvious to me. >> do you ever look through netflix and say there is nothing for me? >> it is not just netflix. >> anywhere. i can go on -- oh, no, another norwegian, you know, missing

person, with subtitles. and i don't -- you know, i've got -- ever see you started, you want to continue, i've got like three lines of stuff i started and i watch half hour and it is, like, this blows. that's what happens to movies. relatively speaking in the '90s, all the courtroom dramasr romcoms that repeat themselves. there is literally a whole ecosystem around it. go to sundance and buyers there, sell the movies, it creates massive jobs in the city. whole new distributors pop up. this is something i really want to see happen in television. i think i'm a little early. i think i might come back here next year and might be like, that one didn't -- >> it makes business sense, though. and that's what our viewers care about. >> streaming detail. not everybody can have a thursday night nfl game. it is working. but we need great content.

>> 100%. thursday night game. they're realizing people are unsubscribing in mass. >> you got to get back in the control room and get on -- >> thank you. >> be nice to us. >> thank you. up next, decision day for the fed. will it be 25 or -- probably not since 225. will it be 25 or 50 basis points? we'll discuss that next. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what is the best-selling vehicle in the united states? the answer when "squawk box" returns. good thing i had aflac. (aflac duck) hmmm the cash i got from aflac helped pay for medical expenses, groceries, rent. it really helped close that gap. (whisper) go, go, go! (group) yay! go aflac! go duck! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover. find an agent. get a quote at aflac.com. wish we had aflac on our team. you can! over 90% of cobalt used in batteries comes from china.

electra battery materials, awarded $20 million by the u.s. department of defense, is bringing the battery supply chain home, reducing dependance on china and revitalizing our industrial base. electra battery materials.

>> announcer: and now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what is the best-selling vehicle in the united states? the answer, the ford f-series, primarily the ford f-150. while the market focuses on 25 or 50, there is a bigger debate among economists, which may be more important to investors. senior economics reporter steve liesman joins us with a look at the long run rate debate. before you do that, steve, yesterday, i don't know if your ears were burning, did they go back below 50 on the fed funds

for our 50 basis point cut on that retail sales number to go back to -- >> no, it didn't. it ticked down ever so slightly, but i know, joe, today it hasn't increased in confidence. it is now -- hang on, i'll give you the direct quote here, 63. >> for 50? >> yeah. >> it ticks down from like 65. >> does that surprise you? >> i -- look, i'm on the other side of this. i'm with the 37. i always like being with the underdogs here. that's why i enjoy being -- but, joe, 25, 50 today, a piece of the more far-reaching real great rate debate about where it goes and how it gets there. we should be prepared for a long and irritating ride marked by the unpalatable echo of are we there yet? the trouble for the fed is the uncertainty over which bogey to aim. the fed fund's rate has been all

over the place. the fed has to figure out if there is some old analog or new one at play here. here is some numbers to think about. relative to the current funds rate of 538, the long run rate at 2.8 or 2.50. the rate just 0.6 from the great financial crisis to the pandemic. a period of below 2% inflation. but it was 5.5 during the tech boom of the late '90s. that could be an analog for now. the nominal average has been 4.8% since 1960. put all of those in your pipe and you can smoke them. mark vintner says the neutral rate is likely higher than many anticipate, potentially above 3%, given the economy is expected to stay close to full employment. the fed will probably need to keep rates above this level. that's not how the market is priced. it sees an aggressive fed cutting the 415 by year end. almost 125 lower as your citi economist said and 296 by the end of 2025 or 240 from here

down to what is now around the neutral rate. future have a habit of forecasting more than the fed has been willing to do recently. so the fed factors in unemployment, growth, inflation, productivity to figure out where to go. it also has a large balance sheet that should be providing stimulus, a complicating factor we don't talk much about. i would say the fed is headed to 3%. likely to get there more slowly than the market projects unless there is some notable economic weakening. >> steve, is there anything to the idea that we just in 15 years there is an entire generation of wall street types that have only known thebenefit of an easy fed, or low interest rates or the spigot being turned on, and the minute we get back to what some of us thought was normal, years ago, you know, fed funds rate of 5, 6, whatever,

that's just the way it is. that's the cost of money. that, you know, that makes you think about investments, some of them make sense, some of them don't make sense. is it like, are we always want to be in an easing mode unless there's something going on? it is always the -- it is the default mode? >> it is 100% true, joe. if you look at that period, from the great financial crisis to the pandemic, in fact, it is worse than that. guys in the back, if you have my real fed funds rate chart, joe, i may be anticipated this question here, what i did is i deflated those numbers i gave you earlier by the prevailing inflation at the time. look at that, joe, from '08 to '20, the actual inflation adjusted funds rate was minus 0.8%. not only did money not ever cost -- they essentially paid you to take it. then you can see during '95 to '01, good economic growth. we had a good economic financial

bubble at that time. but we had strong productivity. look how much higher it was. and then you can see where the fed is aiming, if it gets 2% inflation, 0.8% is the estimate there. so, yeah, you had a generation, what is that, 12 years there of folks who grew up only knowing essentially, not just a positive nominal rate, but a negative real rate. and we don't talk -- i had a -- put it this way. kevin has been writing about this idea of the balance sheet, the stimulus it is providing. remember, we're at $7 trillion on the balance sheet as well. we don't talk much about how much stimulus that provides as well. so, look, there are hard money people out there, there are soft money people out there, and maybe there is some people in between that say we ought to take all this into account. >> yeah. okay. so, you -- even though you think it should be 25, you think it will be 25? >> i do, joe. i think, look, i want to explain

my reasoning for one quick second, which is that when the inflation data came out, which was the data before the market went to this 50 thing, taking -- the fed was not speaking at the time, they had already spoken, so, before several articles came out, it was the market was saying 85% chance of a 25. and then there were these articles out there, and then some additional articles from those same publications that kind of were more balanced. so i'm going with what i think the data and the public fed speak has told me where they're going to go. i could be wrong about this. i would be happy to come on the show tomorrow if you would have me and eat my words. >> okay. we'll look forward to that, maybe. all right. thanks, steve. >> yes, sir. >> okay. >> when we come back, house speaker mike johnson joins us ahead of today's vote on a six-month stopgap funding bill. and later, carlisle ceo eywaz ll join us in

his first cnbc interview since taking that position in february of last year. "squawk box" will be right back. (♪♪) what took you so long? i'm sorry, there was a long line at the thai place. you get the sauce i like? of course! you're the man! i wish. the future isn't scary. not investing in it is. nasdaq-100 innovators. one etf. before investing, carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com

daughter: hey, dad. dad: hey, sweetheart. daughter: what are you doing? dad: i'm gonna clean the fence. daughter: it's a lot of fence. dad: you wanna help me? dad: aim at the wall, but get closer. daughter: (gasps) what the?! daughter: alright. dad: side to side. when you work with someone who knows a lot and cares even more... you can do this. ...you're unstoppable. (♪♪) wow... are you kidding me? you can do this. at truist, we believe the same is true for banking.

coming up, house speaker mike johnson joins us to discuss his funding plan as a possible government shutdown looms. as we head to a break, shares of general mills moving lower after quarterly results earnings of $1.07. that was a penny better than the street was expecting. it comes on revenue of 8.45 billion. and better than expected in terms of revenue. revenue did slip 1% over the prior year to that 4.85 billion number. the company said that was driven by unfavorable net price realization and mix. still, better than expectations for the full year, general mills is affirming its guidance amid what it is calling a continued uncertain macro economic backdrop for csursonme across its core markets. that stock down by 1.4%. "squawk box" will be right back.

(woman 2 vo) i have a great boss... it's me. (man 1 vo) i have people, people i can count on. (man 2 vo) i have time to give (grandma vo) and a million stories to share. (grandpa vo) if that's not rich, i don't know what is. (vo) the key to being rich is knowing what counts.

>> i made a promise to my daughter that i would get my college degree. i had 20 years of experience as an hr professional. i had reached a ceiling, so i enrolled in umgc. umgc removes every barrier. everyone treated me like a person with individual needs and met me where i was. i would not be the person that i am today, the mother, the business owner, had it not been for the partnership with umgc. [ music ]

after abruptly pulling a stopgap funding package off the floor last week, the house is set to vote later today on the same six-month continuing

resolution. the bill is linked to legislation requiring proof of citizenship to vote, which has been backed by former president trump. but not all house republicans are on board with the proposal. joining us now to talk about this and more, house speaker mike johnson. mr. speaker, good to see you. it has been a while, thanks for joining us. >> thanks a lot. thanks for having me, joe. >> can't imagine why any republican would not -- would not want to support something. i don't know where it would go from there. i don't understand the other side either with not requiring proof of citizenship to vote. especially with what we have seen at the southern border. it just plays into all the conspiracy theories that that's what democrats are trying to do here. the whole thing is confounding to most u.s. citizenry, mr. speaker. but why do some republicans -- they just don't like crs in general, is that what it is? >> i think that's it. for a handful of them. here's the thing, congress has

an important and immediate obligation to do two big things. one is to keep the government funded, obviously. that's our responsibility. and also to ensure the security of our elections. the cr is the vehicle to do that. and that is why because we owe this to the american people, we're going to add that and bring it to the floor today, to move that forward. look, i'm going to try with everything within me to get this passed because we owe it to the people. i've been traveling the country nonstop, joe. i've been campaign events so far in 206 cities across 40 states in the last several months. no matter where we are, in every public setting, the first or second question from the audience is, can we count on the security of the election? and congress has an obligation to do this. it is about an 90% issue on the polls. we're going to move that forward, we're going to run the play today and i certainly hope that it passes. >> and then what would happen? probably not going to pass. but let's say it does. then what would happen?

what are the prospects of it actually going all the way to where it needs to do to keep the government open. republicans are not going to want anything that accidentally or inadvertently shuts down the government, 49, 48 days before the election. >> right, and if we pass this today we will be funding the government and it will extend it for six months. we have time to solve and resolve all the issues. and after the election, i'm convinced that we'll have unified government. we're going to grow the house majority, we're going to take back the senate for the republican party. and i believe donald j. trump is going back for a second term. and so in the first quarter of next year, we will be able to responsibly address the spending issues and all the things and the priorities that we want to do in those appropriations processes. so, i think this is a very important thing. if we pass it today, we send it over to the senate, chuck schumer then has it on his desk. if the government shuts down and he refuses to move that bill, it is on him. the democrats will have shut the

government down, not the republicans. we're doing our job. >> the senate has passed their own -- look into passing their own version and it will back and forth. the reality is you could have a shut down in 13 days. what happens in that scenario and i'm asking also because the strategist earlier this morning said what's your plan b. >> i don't -- look, i'm the quarterback on the field in the middle of the game. we're calling the play and running it. i'm not addressing plan bs. we got a big playbook, full of ideas, no one needs to worry. but we have to do the right thing. i'm convinced this is on principle and on the constitution the exact right thing. this is an actual live fire pro happening around the country right now is that the millions and millions of illegals who have come across the border since the border czar kamala harris and joe biden opened it wide is that some of them are trying to register to participate in the election. many of them. we know six or seven states have already done their own audits. they have proven you have thousands and thousands of

illegals on the voter rolls right now. if you have just a small percentage of those millions of people that try to participate, you can throw the outcome of the election, you can throw the outcome of who has the majority in the house. i have a colleague who won her seat in congress in 2020 by six votes. another republican colleague, won his race by about 250 votes. it is easy to throw these things off and you could even affect the outcome of a presidential cycle. so the swing states are a real concern. we have to make sure that before someone registers to vote, they prove they are a u.s. citizen. that is existing federal law and there is no mechanism currently for that to happen. that's why the save act is so important. >> 43,000 votes in i don't know how many swing states and that was the presidential election. given all we have been through, we don't need the integrity of our elections being questioned. that's why it is so confounding

to most americans that -- to not understand why this -- i guess we do understand why one party doesn't -- senate republicans supposedly, mr. speaker, are getting frustrated. and i don't know, i know there is something -- someone called a whip, i don't know what that involves. the whipping has been totally ineffective. we saw what happened with the prior speaker trying to -- and trying to get a new speaker. these guys are not -- these cats are not wrangled -- i said cats, now. i'm hitting all the hot button issues. but it is very difficult for republicans to get everyone in this and democrats to get everyone on the same page and i know you're keeping a stiff upp plan b, but if it doesn't work, and senate republicans might have to work with democrats, right, to get it done. and then i don't know what that does for you and your speakerships. >> we're going to get the job done. we always do. and we haven't let anybody down yet. but we have to run the right

bill at the right time on the right principle. and that's what this is. look, we do have the smallest majority in the modern era. u.s. history. everyone knows we're about five months, we had a one-vote margin in the house. so, it has been tough sledding at times. but i'm very optimistic. the reason i'm in such a good mood, i'm convinced we're going to grow the house majority in november. and we'll have much easier shredding ahead. put it that way. we have been working really hard. we have extraordinary candidates recruited all around the country. they're going to flip some of the blue democrat seats to red. and then our incumbents are going to be re-elected and we're going to have a governing majority to move the ball forward and we have big plans for the next congress, very aggressive first 100 days agenda for the congress and beyond. we don't put the cart before the horse, but we got to be prepared to lead and i'm looking forward to that. >> when president trump -- former president trump yesterday said, get your beautiful salt back, were you, like, did you

know that was coming? that would -- that, you know, 2017, that some people think that maybe some of the tailwinds were still seeing in american business might be because of the corporate tax cut? i happen to be one of them. i don't know what other pro growth policies we put into effect. we haven't really put any in. that would certainly exacerbate -- if you extend the 2017 cuts, and, you know, you put the -- take away the cap on salt, that's really going to add to the deficit. have you thought about that? >> sure. i thought about it. but i do think it is a combination of steps that we would look to take. we want to use the tax code to really build investment and opportunity. we know how to do that. we demonstrated it during the first couple of years of the trump administration, we brought about the greatest economy in the history of the world, not just the u.s. we did that, joe, because we implemented the principles and the policies that we always

espoused. that is less regulation, and lower taxes. it is a pretty simple formula, and it has a great result. so we want to expand upon the trump era tax cuts, and we want to do massive regulatory reform. one of the problems we have right now across the free market, right, is that the federal government has been -- these agencies have been weaponized against the industries that they're supposed to be assisting and regulating in a meaningful way. under the biden/harris administration, they have almost smothered the free market. it is, like, the boot of government is on the neck of job creators and entrepreneurs and risk takers who are just trying to do their jobs. and they made it almost impossible. so, we're going to reverse that. if you get republican leadership in the white house, the senate and the house, unified government, we will put this thing on turbo, you will see massive regulatory reform, we have a great opportunity, the supreme court has overturned the chevron doctrine. talk about political tailwinds in a moment of opportunity, that's what we'll see in the first quarter of next year. and you're going to see a lot of

change that i think will really incentivize more opportunity, more investment, more american manufacturing, detangle from china, get the border under control and stop the illegal immigration and stop the maddening government spending that has been out of control for the last four years. >> okay, on that note, speaker johnson, government spending that has been out of control, front page of "the wall street journal" lays out how plans from both candidates, vice president harris and former president trump, really blow out spending in any way, shape or form. the things they have said on the campaign trail, the things they're adding to. let me read you a list of your candidates' proposals over the last several months. you tell me if you agree with him on all of these proposals or if there is some daylight between the two of you. he would eliminate taxes on overtime pay. money that is coming in from tips, social security benefits, no more taxes on that, he would eliminate the salt proposals, the caps that joe just

mentioned, eliminate or cut taxes on manufacturing in the united states for anybody who -- any business who is manufacturing their goods here, pay for new parent expenses. do you agree with all of those plans? they're going to cost like $6 trillion. >> i agree with all -- yeah. i agree with all those ideas. i think most people listening and watching this morning nod their head and say that sounds luke a like a good idea. we need to figure out how to pay for it. that's where good governance comes in. i think we can bring relief to the american people. what president trump is talking about on the campaign trail is that he wants to do right by middle class hard working americans. he wants to do right by seniors. these are the demographics that need that level of assistance. and how do we assist them? >> i agree, but how do you pay for it? >> right. you have to bring about a pro growth economy. and you do that with a combination of aggressive use of

the tax code, and reduction in government regulation. that's how we get the economy going. joe said a moment ago, he thinks the residual effects of the corporate tax cuts, from the trump administration, are one of the reasons we're still afloat in the economy. but i think really the regulatory reform in addition to the tax cuts and jobs act in the first trump administration, our efforts at regulatory reform are what got the economy humming. also, energy policy. that's a huge distinction between harris' plan or if she has a plan, she won't talk about it, i don't think she understands what the talking point she's saying anyway, but donald trump wants to return to american energy dominance. i just -- i talked to our allies around the world, european allies, they are desperate for lng exports from america. we turn that sector back on, you're in the totally different stratosphere with regard to economic growth. joe biden and kamala harris turned it off, literally. they paused lng exports. they declared war on fossil

fuels and oil and gas industry. we got to bring stan tanity bac this and i think donald trump will. we'll have the opportunity to do a lot of these things and be very aggressive to help people. >> there is nothing unprecedented anymore, nothing surprising anymore. but watching the presidential election, mr. speaker, do you think it is possible to take this right to election day and really not see vice president harris face questioning, just random questioning, for interviews? is it possible that you can do that, and it can be successful and everybody just goes, oh, yeah, well, we're not sure what's going top that, but anything is better than donald trump. that could happen and we may not -- there may not be any other interviews between now and election day. and it might just be she's not joe biden, she's not donald

trump. but she does become president. >> it is a frightening thought. and we have 48 days now to expose what her true record is. kamala harris is engaging in a campaign of fantasy over facts. she wants people to believe she is some sort of moderate policy wonk and everyone who watched her career knows that is not true. she had the most progressive woke progressive left voting record in the senate of the modern era. she was left to bernie sanders. she is truly a san francisco radical. and her policies are marxist by design. president trump was exactly right in their debate when he labeled her a marxist. that's not an epithet. that's an accurate description of what she would want to do. look at the litany of promises she made. she wants government giveaways for everything. it would completely tank the u.s. economy. she is not a serious policy person. she is saying whatever she thinks needs to be said right now to be elected. it is an act. you know, she went out on that debate stage and she delivered lines that she had spent 50 days

memorizing because she didn't do interviews or debates before that and delivered the lines well. that's -- congratulations. it is an act. it is as if she's an actor on a stage in a play. but this is serious times. we're in the most desperate, most dangerous times since world war ii are all coordinating together and seeing this as an opportunity. our allies are nervous. our adversaries are empowered and we need strong leadership back in the white house. this is not a game. this election is for all the marbles. everyone who understands this reality needs to not take anything for granted. we have to get out, get our friends to vote, get -- make sure your friends, our neighbors are educated on the issues. this is not about personality, it's about policy. whoever is elected brings a whole policy set with them. this is serious, serious business. >> all right, mr. speaker. in addition to the fed decision, we have the cr. so pretty busy wednesday. thank you for all your time this morning. we appreciate it. >> thank you. great to be with you, as always.

when we come back, at the top of the hour, an exclusive interview with carlisle ceo harvey schwartz. we'll get his take on the fed and the fed's turn around ragy. quk box" will be right back. new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job on indeed, it's easier for talented candidates to find it. which makes it easier for you to hire them. visit indeed.com/hire

weathertech products are designed and manufactured in america using only american raw materials. most competitors make things seven thousand miles away... and then wonder why they don't fit. with weathertech in your vehicle you may hear angels singing as you marvel, how do they do it? simple. american technology and american workers deliver quality... not imported junk for a few bucks less. get the world's best floorliners and support america. find your fit at wt.com (♪♪)

is it possible to count on my internet like my fcustomers count on me? it is with comcast business. keeping you up and running with our 99.9% network reliability. and security that helps outsmart threats to your data. moaire dida twoo? -your data, too. there's even round-the- clock customer support. so you can be there for your customers. with comcast business, reliability isn't just possible. it's happening. switch to reliable comcast business internet with security and get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! where do i begin with our young character? the one thing she was sure of was that she wanted to be a writer but she had no idea how. is there anything new in that notebook? actually, i have been working on a little something and i'd love for you to read it. thanks for being in my life because you've been more than just a mentor.

you've been ce of inspiration in my journey to becoming a writer. coming up, a few names that have lagged the broader market rally that you may want to consider for your portfolio. as we head to break, here is a look at this morning's pre-market leaders in the s&p 500. we're coming right back.

sponsored, our next guest has a few names that could play catch-up and join the market rally. this better be good. joins us now sarat sethi. a cnbc contributor. i see some of your picks. as i said, they're so good, and you're so good, that people are actually willing to pay for us to highlight these things, sarat. what do you want to start with, american tower? >> yeah, let's start with american tower, joe. let's look at the read sector.

i like this stock for its secular growth rates. it will grow earnings at least high digits. we'll refinance debt and when rates come down, people want companies that grow their dividends and it's in the sweet spot. >> how about nestle. it's a feel-good name. must be the chocolate. >> well, it was a feel-good name, but it's a broken story right now. they fired their ceo. they're having some issues in terms of organic growth but the stock is now selling 17 times earnings. historically sold for more than 22 times. a great dividend, great products, chocolate, coffee, healthcare. and i really think this company could turn itself around. it's a global brand. and you want to buy companies like nestle when nobody else wants to own them. >> how do you screw it up? what happened? >> really to focus off of organic growth. got complacent thinking their

products would keep growing. it's a competitive market, great global brands. sometime when you're not focussed on keeping growth at the right rate, that's what happens. >> finally, salesforce, what are they -- the bottoms up/top down analysis for that. what maga forces dr not maga, what macro forces or maga, what macro forces are positive for salesforce in terms of the economy? and what is the company's strategy? how is that working? >> so, you know, salesforce is the leader in crm, customer resource. and companies that spent a lot more in ai are now looking back to, hey, how do we spend back to our software. they're in every company. growing over 15% a year. the stock hasn't been this low in years. in fact, it's trading at a multiple that we haven't seen. so really the money has moved away.

we think it will come back. you have organic growth. a macro factor company will spend more money to get more efficient. and really you see results right away as opposed to ai which could be down the road. so, you know, great leadership there. they're having their analyst data week. this is a company you can buy and prior was hard to buy because it wasn't growth at a reasonable price, it was growth at a high price. >> very good. okay. i was going to say why you didn't say ai a single time. you finally got it in at the end, sarat. >> i said it. this is not an ai story. almost a lot of other stocks are buying for ai. you can do well without the ai on this one. >> 25 or 50 today? >> i think you go 50. and i think you go 50 and you talk as to why you did 50, just to catch up to the curve. i think the commentary will be way more important than the cut at this point. >> you do? all right, sarat. >> thank you. >> you're welcome. it is 8:00 a.m. on the east

coast. and you're watching "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen. andrew is on assignment. among today's top stories, fed day is finally here. the u.s. central bank is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in four years, but unlike as past meetings there is significant disagreement over what the fed might do today. the key debate is over whether the fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 bases points. we'll find out at 2:00 p.m. eastern time. weekly mortgage demands surging as americans try to take advantage of lower interest rates. the mortgage banker's association says total mortgage application volume rose more than 14% last week compared to the week before. the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage came down to 6.15%. that was the lowest since september of 2022. and tupperware brands filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. it says it will try to get court approval to continue selling its

products and chart out a sale process for the business. tupperware hit by mounting losses and poor demand in the face of lower-cost rifles. >> look at that thing. let's get to mike santoli with a look at the markets. good morning, mike. >> morning, joe. yesterday s&p 500 managed very briefly to hit a new intraday high by all of one point over the peak that was previously set in mid july. look at the way the chart sets up on a year to date basis. no such thing as a triple top. i don't know what this looks like exactly here. we've kind of gone up about 56, 50 several times in the last three months. pretty much positioned there pricing in roughly soft landing scenario. would note that the equal weighted s&p is at a new high. so it's really the mega-cap growth stocks in the first half have not been leading and suppressing the index returns, but other stuff has been coming along. look at this etf, aor, proxy for

the fixed income portfolio little global element. wanted to point out it's finally dug its way out of the deep trench from 2022 when stock and bond were going down together. massive rallies in treasuries, corporate bonds as well as stocks has this at a new high as well. this doesn't include the dividends and the interest payments that would have gotten the total return back into the black. but probably a pretty good sign in general in aggregate that people have high portfolio values. take a look here, nvidia, mentioned the leaders of the first half. struggling or at least pausing here in a prolonged way. here you see, you know, several -- series of lower highs there. now, it didn't want to go below 98 recently. did not pull back that far in the previous one. so it's kind of consolidating here, tightening up. seems like the market is trying to move on without semiconductor leadership. we'll see if that can last. >> do you have an overall

viewpoint that if we go into an easing cycle that if it was just knee jerk, one thing follows another, stocks should go up? or we have been waiting for so long, mike -- >> yeah. >> -- maybe that's why they're up where they are already? >> yeah, i think we already accounted for the fact that we know it's going to be an easing cycle. historically, interestingly enough, the market can sometimes be defensive after the first cut, even if you just go by the history books. we have gotten to where we are in terms of stock indexes, in part, because we know fed will be cutting, economy is still growing, atlanta fed gdp is looking at 3% analyzed pace. who knows if that's right. that doesn't say we're in refrenchment mode. i do think that the knee jerk now will be all about what we've priced in relative to 25 or 50. and the fact that we have this rare suspension around the decision today, it means somebody will be disappointed on the first trade.

>> right. >> i don't know what would be better for the market today. now i'm starting to think maybe 25 is better for the market. >> that's what i think. >> i don't know. but who knows. thanks, mike. >> yep. >> we'll see. coming up, we'll speak with former federal reserve vice chairman richard clarida as we count down the fed's big interest rate decision this afternoon. next, though, carlisle ceo harvey schwartz in his first cnbc interview since becoming head of that firm. don't go anywhere, "squawk box" is coming right back. (woman 1) all right, here we go. uggggh. (man 1) oh no, no, no, no, no, no! (man 2) what's my next step? oh! ugh.

(girl) dad. (vo) you break it. we take it. (woman 2) we can take it. (vo) trade in any phone, in any condition at verizon for the new google pixel 9 with gemini. (man 2) give me a recipe with these ingredients. (girl) let's do that one. (vo) only on verizon. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our advanced matching helps find talented candidates, so you can connect with them fast. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome to the now way to network... they switched to juniper's ai-native network. so they can take their game to a whole new level... that's the now way to network at work— with real ai— letting you rise above it all.

right now we want to take you to carlisle's annual global investor conference down in washington. and leslie picker is there and joins us with a special guest. good morning, leslie. >> hey, good morning, joe. and i am here with carlisle ceo harvey schwartz. first cnbc interview since taking the job as ceo. so really appreciate you joins

us today. >> really excited to be here, leslie. >> and very important day for the markets. i think you have a unique perspective here, we're of course awaiting the fed decision on rate cuts and the potential magnitude of those. what do you think the economy needs right now given where you sit atop of $435 billion behemoth, as well as conversations from those attending today's conference. >> yeah, here at the conference we have in excess of 400 of our global investing eclients. we have come together for a couple days. really focussed on the big themes that are driving markets for the next decade. changes -- really paradigm changing shifts. you know, the shift in globalization. the shift in inflation and interest rates and things driving. the fed up today is giving a tremendous amount of focus. what the fed does today is not really the most important thing for how we think about the long-term trajectory of our business. we have several hundred companies around the world that employee in excess of a million

people. and we roll up that proprietary data and that data really informs us around economic activity. i can tell you when we sat here last year, when market participants, many were going for six or seven rate cuts, that data was telling us this year we might see two or three. our perspective is we'll see three to four rate cuts based on the economic health and vibrancy we're seeing in the portfolio really over the next year. so we're not in the consensus of significant cuts. and as far as today is concerned, whether it's one or two, the most important thing for market participants is monetary policy has worked. inflation has come down. and now we're in this shift. but whether it's one or two today, we'll see. >> so you think it's going to be three or four by september of 2025? >> right now when we look at our portfolio data, and the factors that affect the economy, locally here in the u.s. and obviously globally, we see a vibrant

economy. monetary policy has worked. i think the federal reserrve ha done an amazing job with complex circumstances. we see three cuts by the end of the year, a pause, activities should continue to pick up and then maybe one next year. this is at a consensus. your crystal ball is as good as anybody's. >> i want to ask you about private credit. now that we're looking at entering a potential somewhat easing cycle, and rates are potentially coming down, there's more competition, can you explain a little bit more about your strategy here? and you worried at all that you could be behind the ball here? >> so, our business, as you mentioned, is $435 billion globally across private equity, credit insurance and our solutions business, our secondary business. the largest segment of our business is credit insurance at $190 billion. in terms of the trajectory of that business, when you think

about things that drive the opportunity set, for all market participants, it's really the need for private capital. that's what drives it. we see the tra jejectory of tha continuing to grow. that's not just private credit, credit across the whole landscape, high yield credit, asset base financed. one of the fastest growing business is the asset based finance business. we recently bought the discover student loan business. 10 billion. they have huge momentum and number of factors that really will keep that momentum growing. >> and on the private equity side, you mentioned the portfolio companies and they're helping inform your view on the economy, suggesting that the economy is robust. how would you characterize their growth prospects, especially as we've seen limited numbers of exits in the broader private equity landscape, as well as fundraising, that's been more muted for carlisle specifically. that was the case in asia. would you say that there is a

bottoming in the private equity world right now? >> so, at carlisle specifically, last year was our third best fundraising year ever. i think the team did a fantastic job. we raised over $40 million in the last couple quarters. private equity, we have to step back and read we went through 30 years of bottoming at 0, declining, and shift of 500 bases points. we were sitting at this conference a few years ago, that would be 1 in a million statistical chance. it's not surprising to anyone if you forecast that happening that activities would slow, market participants would want to recalibrate how they think about capital deployment. buyers and sellers certainly would hesitate. now we're seeing more certainty in terms of expectation around interest rates. inflation coming down and now we see activity picking up. acquisitions, last several weeks in terms of activity levels.

as long as we don't have unexpected market disruption, activity levels should stay reasonably robust and improving. >> so, i know you mention on your second quarter earnings call that the second half of the year would be robust for exits. and we have seen some headlines picking up. but still things way below average. what do you think cat lyses that? is it that spread that's narrowed? does it require a higher magnitude of rate cuts for people to feel comfortable with financing and actually doing deals? >> again, it's the backdrop. we had a backdrop where we had geopolitical splintering, the middle east, russia and the war with ukraine, all those things are reasons for ceos to pause and assess. simultaneously, we had the big jump in rates. you had the bank failures. all of that happening at once. incredibly complex backdrop as i think any ceo would say, is this the time to be making an aggressive decision? is this the time for market

participants to put capital to work? the answer most sensibly was no. you saw the lull in activity. as the market adjusts, rates coming down -- not so much the rates coming down fuel activity, monetary policy worked, that inflation has cooled. when the supply chain disruption was at its peak, and our industrial companies, we all talk about inflation at headline level. but we had $1 price input items going up to $2. so companies really had to adjust and think through strategy around the globe where you have 100% inflation on an individual input price. and so, the thinking around price dynamics, price elasticity, how ceos change prices, how they think about capital and strategy, it should be a surprise to no one in that environment activity could slow, they would assess. now as we come back out of this with inflation really behind us, again, the fed has done an

incredible job, activity levels will most certainly continue to pick up. >> so more about inflation and certainty therein than it is the actual level of rates. harvey schwartz, ceo of carlisle. thank you for being here. really appreciate it? >> becky, back to you. >> leslie, thank you very much. when we come back, we'll talk energy and ai in the field with the ceo of slb, that's the world's largest oil field services company. don't awhe.gonyer "squawk box" will be right back. all across america. millions of americans who have medicare and medicaid but may be missing benefits they could really use. extra benefits they may be eligible to receive at no extra cost. and if you have medicare and medicaid, you may be able to get extra benefits, too, through a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan. call now to see if there's a plan in your area and to see if you qualify. all of these plans include doctor, hospital and prescription

drug coverage. plus, something really special, the humana healthy options allowance. your allowance. to help pay for essentials like eligible groceries, utilities and rent. even over-the-counter items. and whatever you don't spend gets carried over to the next month. plus, with a humana medicare advantage dual-eligible special needs plan you'll get other important benefits. all of these plans include dental coverage. with two free cleanings a year. plus, fillings, and a yearly exam. vision coverage, including eye exams and a yearly allowance for eye wear. and hearing benefits. including routine hearing exams and coverage toward hearing aids. you'll also get free rides to and from medical appointments. best of all, you'll pay nothing for covered prescriptions, even brand name ones, all year long. and zero dollars for many routine vaccines at in-network retail pharmacies. plus, you'll have access to humana's large networks of doctors and specialists. so, if you have medicare and medicaid, call now to

see if there's a plan in your area that will give you extra benefits, including an allowance to help pay for essentials. plus, no-cost for covered prescriptions. and coverage for routine dental, vision and hearing. a knowledgeable, licensed humana sales agent will explain your coverage options. and, if you're eligible, help you enroll over the phone. it's that easy! call today and we'll also send this free guide. humana. a more human way to healthcare. wall street forecasts over $100 billion in sales for weight loss drugs known as glp-1. even with disliked and inconvenient injections. dehydratech processing of a glp-1 drug demonstrated improved blood sugar reduction and reduced side effects. study results are arriving monthly. from lexarias, patented oral delivery technology trials. lexaria bioscience, transforming the future of glp-1 drug delivery.

welcome back to "squawk box." nothing going on in the futures this morning at the big fed decision coming later today. there's the treasuries. we'll take a look at 3.68 this morning, pretty solid retail sales number yesterday. did see yields move up a little by from 3.61, 3.61 on the 10

year. bitcoin over 60,000 yesterday's session. back beneath right at 59,770. the house is set to vote today on a stopgap spending bill that would fund the government for six more months and also require americans to provide proof of citizenship when they vote. but democrats in the senate say any funding bill shouldn't be paired with that voting provision. here is what house speaker mike johnson told us last hour when we asked h about this issue. >> i think this is very important thing. if we pass it today, we send it over to the senate. chuck schumer then has it on his desk. if the government shuts down and he refuses to move that bill, it's on him. the democrats will have shut the government down, not the republicans. >> and government shutdown would take place at midnight on september 30th. and inject a new partisan fight into the presidential campaign just weeks before election day.

48 days -- have you checked? >> i have not checked. >> i can get it for you really fast. it always comes up -- 48 days, 16 hours, 39 minutes and 8 seconds. >> can't get here fast enough. all right. our next guest joins us to talk about the global energy market. geopolitical hot spots and how ai promises to change the energy industry. want to welcome olivier le peuch ceo of slb, the world's largest oil field services company. sir, thank you for being with us today. >> thank you for having me. >> let's talk a little bit about the shoutout you all got from barrens this past week. barrens looked at you and said you are -- like the nvidia of the 1980s. said that it's worth taking another look at this stock. but a big part of the reason they said that is because the stock is down 20% for the year to date, down 32% over the last year. and thinks that there's definitely some beat down

aspects to it. why do you think the stock has been down? >> i think many reasons for this. uncertainty on the economics is putting demand outlook that the cycle, the industry, the back door of investments increasing is still highly favorable in very unsteady environments, strengths in international markets, digital that we can talk about later and commitment to sustainability and commitment to sustainability. so we are still very poised to grow going forward. continue to commit cash increase to returns giving back to our shareholders. committed to next year and we still have sights to continue to expand margin, highly favorable for market position, international technology,

digital, and decarbonization, trends we are very well aligned with. >> okay. let's talk a little bit about some of those trends you just mentioned. ai, you're now an a-i play, i guess w the loomi platform. what is that? >> absolutely. we believe that ai is the x factor we call it, x factor of digital industry. changing the way we provide, planning provisions, all aspects is transformative. and i think this week we have been inviting more than 1,000 customers and partners here in monaco to do this -- first and leading digital event in our industry. the numbers are showing really around what we can -- digital, being created by customers using our platform, using the platforms of our partners. but i think what is unique this

year is ai is there, the time is now for ai to unlock efficiency, to unlock innovation and to change the way we operate in the industry. >> how does it do that? i don't know that i understand how any of that works? >> so, it works simply -- we use -- what is unique about our industry? our industry has been swimming in data. and using science to execute its work force, face, drilling, production, a lot of data. now what we are connecting, we are connecting the ai tool box, the deep learning, the generative ai to the trends, to the attributes of the operational data and extracting insights, extracting decisions for our customers and starting to touch autonomous operation, automation and optimization. that's what is changing. while using the tool box of our partners and we are connecting

the data for our customers to give them insights and go beyond this to give autonomous operation and to automate and to change the performance efficiency and start to do more and more operation, more efficient operation and less carbon operation. and all of the customers the iocs, the national company, the whole gathering here, they are really aligned. they have seen the lights. they are willing to adopt. and they're looking for platform, hence the loomi platform announced yesterday. >> olivier, you mentioned geopolitics and your strength internationally. in august, the financial times reported that they had looked into your operations in russia, which you point out that your two main rivals baker hughes and hall burton both pulled out of russia after the invasion of ukraine. you all stayed but said you would not be expanding there at the time. the financial times in august said that they identified more

than 1,000 job advertisements posted by the company in russia for roles ranging from drivers to chemists to geologists. can you explain what your operations are in russia? >> we have been clear. we have been publishing faq on our websites, disclosing this article. and revenue is very small and diminishing over time. we're focussed on the safety, the security of our people operating there. and to reach or exceed all international sanction, which we have done and we are very clear with the faq posted very recently on our website. >> okay. olivier, thank you for your time today. olivier le peuch. >> thank you very much. coming up, housing data will be breaking followed by a can't-miss interview with former fed chair richard clarida, vice chair, stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back.

it's time to grow your business. time to get customers. time to make your future, now. create a website in minutes. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing? nope. ai, done, built, up and running. you have what it takes. now take it to the next level. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy. let's get to work start for free at godaddy.com

just seconds away now from august housing starts. there's the futures, just fractional gains across the

board, indicated in everything we're waiting for later today from the federal reserve. treasuries, last we looked, at 3.68 or so on the 10-year, which did move up a little on the yields did because that strong retail number yesterday. rick santelli is standing by in chicago. what are the numbers, rick? >> yes, housing starts for the month of august, we're expecting starts to be smidge over 1.3 million. a little better than expected. 1,356,000, seasonally adjusted annualized units. the bounce should be not surprising to anyone considering in the rear-view mirror last month was 1,238,000 and just got revised down another 1,000. that, it was the lowest month over month change going back to mid 2020. now, if we look at the permit side, same scenario. better than expected.

sequentially higher, 1 million 475,000 seasonably adjusted annualized units. rear-view mirror smidge 1.4 million to a smidge over 1.4 million. but in the end, it's still -- these are very soft numbers considering that that also was the weakest permit month over month change last month going all the way back to, well, mid 2020 as well. now, if we look at the scenario of where interest rates are in reference to that, really hasn't made much difference. the kickback to better levels, we do have issues, of course, between permits on multifamily and single family. i can't break that down considering the way they fly across the wires. but we know multifamily, anybody living in the suburbs can look out the car driving around, see how many more multifamily units have been built over the last several plus years post covid and to throw another issue out there, the inventory of new

homes is getting rather large, even though all in all, supply and affordability remain issues. we did see this morning, of course, that interest rates have moved to some of the lowest levels in a couple years. but anything with a six handle doesn't seem very low to me. today is the big fed day and everybody is debating 25 or 50. gee, it should be obvious. let me see. stocks near all time highs, right? interest rates have moved down rather dramatically. but maybe that's the dog wagging the tail or the tail wagging the dog, depending on how the fed fits into your game plan for trading. but ultimately, whether they move 25 or 50, one really has to wonder, is there going to be a political discussion if it's 50? 50 days out from an election. 50 bases points. what happens if equities continue to make new highs and, of course, the current administration will most likely

point to some of these issues as we go into the voting chamber. i'll tell you what i'm certainly glad i'm not part of the fed. this will be a very complicated decision, but it's certainly seems as though the easing cycle will begin today. and whether it's 25 or 50, six, seven months down the road probably won't matter much. keep an eye on the dollar index. 100.5 has been a huge area. if we start to settle below that, i would be shocked if very near to that move we don't settle below 100. huge psychological issue, but the real point i'm trying to make here is the market is probably getting ahead of itself. doesn't mean it's incorrect. closing price yesterday, can write a check and either give or receive money at those prices. but ultimately, the dollar index probably going to do better because the easing cycle, in my opinion, isn't going to be as large as many think. joe? back to you. i'm a bit surprised that you are in such defense of removing

salt. don't you think people with big real estate and big states ought to pay their share? >> i'm not in defense of it. blow money on everything under the sun, building two charging stations with $12 billion, give me my salt back. at least i'll do something good with it, you know what i mean? if everybody is going to get this largess and go to 35 trillion, you really need my salt? i think -- >> yeah, i think we do. i think we do. i think we do. and everybody -- we all have to start somewhere, joe. we all have to start somewhere. it affects me, too. but you know what, i'll bite the bullet. i think it's something -- >> you are. people don't -- you should get credit for biting the bullet. everybody that writes in here says i got this huge tax cut under trump. when, in fact, you know -- >> for years and years and years i heard the very wealthy saying, wow. i pay what i'm supposed to pay. i go along with the tax code.

and i remember saying, well, if you think you're paying too little in taxes, harken back to warren buffett, send in a check. >> the line at the bottom you can do that. >> the same crowd is like, ah. >> a line at the bottom. apparently no one has ever filled out anything on that line. in the history of the -- not one person has ever said, here is some more for you. have fun. it doesn't happen. >> salt is making it easier. >> for me, yeah. i don't really -- i guess i was making the point that if we will be so insane with the way we blow money, you might as well let me have my salt deduction back. >> the best place to start when we want to explain to viewers how we do or do not blow money when it comes to issues like tax policy, is to quit marking up things in ecstatic fashion, whether it's tax cuts, salt, all these issues, they're not static. they alter financial behavior. the problem is that with along

with that financial behavior being modified, the government also spends more and they mask any of the benefits of those policies. >> i wonder what lease man wants to do. you want your salt cap removed? >> what i want, joe, and what i was most disappointed about when donald trump did his tax reform was there was a brief moment they talked about broad tax reform and getting rid of all of the little things in the tax -- >> they kind of did. >> structure. no. >> no deductions? >> well, there's a lot -- >> there's no deductions. w2 earners. >> yes, there is. >> you have to get an llc. >> you get a private plane, you got a boat, you got all those things. >> the more you look at tax codes, more simplified it is, the better. >> i think i'm -- >> pretty simple. >> i'm an average american in the sense i'll give more if everybody else gives more. >> agree. that's the point. that's the point about saying, okay, just write it in yourself. no, it has to be uniformly

applied. that's the only way it makes a difference. >> private equity deductions you ought to get rid of all of that. one very quick word about the housing numbers, which they were depressed last month because of hurricane barrel, that was the thinking. and the debate was whether or not they would come back now. and they did come back and they came back stronger. there is a huge issue now, interesting question, about what happens to the housing market with interest rates falling. i agree with rick, 6%. not all that attractive, of course, more attractive than 7%. how low do these mortgage rates go? what happens? do you stimulate more housing construction to the point where you bring down housing prices or do you stimulate it to the point where you have additional demand where housing prices don't fall? one other -- it's you i'm watching very carefully is we talk about essentially administered rates. the feds fund rate and the treasury rate.

whole other universe, guys, in the cost and price of money in the private sector. if you look at what's happened to aaa bonds, triple b bonds, they have come down in anticipation of what the fed is going to do. so, in the real economy right now are lower interest rates. and then you have a question, we'll talk about this some other day, of the ability of companies like housing manufacturers, home builders, car manufactures to pass along their lower cost of funds to consumers and what the impact is there on the economy. becky? >> okay. steve, thank you. why don't you stay with us. we are less than six hours away from the fed's next interest rate decision. that's why steve is in washington today. no one is quite sure how large the rate cut will be today. 25 or 50 bases points. an unusual amount of drama around this decision. wall street is pretty locked into a viewpoint ahead of the fed's 2:00 p.m. decision. usually that's not the case this time around. and joining us right now is former fed vice chairman rich clarida he served in the george

w. bush administration, now global economic adviser at pimkoe. thank you for being with us. >> glad to be here, yeah. >> rick said a while ago he's glad he's not in the fed today having to make this decision in the fomc. what about you? >> well, what i'll say is i think sit a close call. the pimco call is a close call, 25/50, 75 or 100 for the rest of the year. i think the big picture, becky, the powell fed thinks that rates are restrictive. they want to do everything they can to support maximum employment. and so they're going to be projecting and talking about a lot of rate cuts over the next 12 months. whether or not they ratify market pricing which is very aggressive is to be seen. but we're sticking with our call of 25 today. really based upon the post-jackson hole macro data, you pointed out has been strong and commentary fed officials before the blackout. >> that to me would be the idea if you're going 50 bases points, that usually happens when there

is some sort of an energy or we feel like we're really behind the curve. the data doesn't really back that up at this point. >> well, what history tells us that story. the last two times the fed cut 50 for the first cut was in 2000 before what became 2001 before what became a brief recession and in september of '07. we know how that ended up. yeah, typically when the first move is 25, it's not been right in front of a downturn. >> right. where do you think the economy really is headed? how do you kind of -- what are your directional pointings? >> well, the direction is that it has been very resilient for now going on two years. i mean, atlanta fed keeps revising up gdp tracker. we do think eventually that the economy does drift down towards growth around 2%, maybe a bit less. i remind you, we had a lot of good news on inflation the last three to four months. the year over year basis, the

fed will project inflation running at 2.8 or 2.9. >> long way from 2%. we heard others like jamie dimon bring up the idea, you think this inflation issue is cured, you should maybe take a few steps back. sound like you're echoing some of those concerns. >> sure. the progress has been remarkable and certainly i think it does make sense to begin to remove some restrictive policy. yes, the real funds rate is elevated. but financial conditions have been easy and since the fed signals these cuts they eased a lot in the last two months. >> steve? >> yeah. rich, i have only 100 questions. i'll keep it down to two, though. >> okay. hi, steve. >> how are you? what is the thing you went from a risk management standpoint which maybe you translated to human terms and say, what would you regret most not having done if you get a weaker jobs report, are you going to be hitting yourself on the head for not having done 50? or if you get a stronger inflation report, are you going to be hitting yourself for having done 50?

where does the risk management fall out here in your mind? >> well, steve, right now i think that because of the lags in monetary policy, you know, regardless of what the fed does today or really did in july, the near-term employment numbers we're going to get are basically what we are going to get. the fed needs to set rates based on where inflation and the labor market will be in 6 to 12 months. i'm not that sympathetic to behind the curve july versus september. as i said, really since april, financial conditions have eased materially, you know, bond yields are down 100 bases points. you talk about the mortgage rates. auto loans. and so, as we have seen in the past, the bond market will do the fed's job for it. and will begin to front run those cuts. so i really don't think about it really so much as a risk management exercise in 25 versus 50 today. >> rich, just following up, if we can get a camera on joe,

he'll most certainly yawn when i ask this question, we don't talk about the balance sheet. it's a $7 trillion balance sheet. there he is. somebody hit him. somebody hit him. wake him up. it's a $7 trillion balance sheet. when i looked today at monetary policy regimes out there, we have done 4.8 averages 1960. 0.8 during the financial -- from the great financial crisis to the pandemic. none of those seemed to work because in that time we didn't have all that stimulus from the balance sheet. how would you as a policymaker think about what kind of stimulus is still coming from a $7 trillion balance sheet? >> well, i think everyone agrees, i think including at the fed, that they hold a lot of treasuries and mortgages and that is putting downward pressure on yields. what we don't agree on is how big that affect is. you know, i welcome the fact that it looks like qt will continue, even though today they're going to cut rates.

you know, when i was there in 2019, we more or less ended qt at the meeting in which we cut in july of 2019. so, i think that the balance sheet, from my perspective, can continue to get smaller. and in particular, you know, now that the fed has this new facility to support the repo markets, i would hope it would continue. but in terms of measuring that effect, it is difficult to do. >> hey, rich. let's talk about another balance sheet, the u.s. governments. >> yeah. >> front page of the "wall street journal" today both our presidential candidates are talking about spending increases, tax cuts, that is going to make it even more difficult proposition. the fed is there to be making sure that it's watching one side of the balance sheet on this, the federal government does the rest. how much harder does it make the federal reserve's job when this is happening? do you worry about rates kind of getting out of control and the fed not having as much control over things because of these

huge concerns? >> becky, you're absolutely right. it's really mission critical. there are really two parts it to. the one is that big budget deficits. the cbo numbers are really depressing. regardless of roughly what happens in november, the baseline projections are 6% budget deficits as far as the eye can see. so that obviously makes the fed's job harder because it supports aggregate demand. on the other hand, we have 100% of gdp of debt outstanding. $30 trillion of treasuries. you were kind enough to mention my time at the treasury 20 years ago. those days treasury outstanding were about 40% of gdp. now it's 100. if anything, that puts upward pressure on bond yields because people have to be compensated to hold all those treasure ris. >> you can find lower rates but good luck selling it. >> so absolutely. so big budget deficits and big stock of debt does complicate the fed's job. now, they have the ability to offset it, but it is an input

into their assessment. should be. >> but a much trickier job for the fed? >> yeah, yeah. >> in the days to come. rich, thank you. rich clarida. >> thank you as always. coming up, is ai ready for primetime when it comes to investment decisions? our next guest thinks -- he's banking on it. we're there. we'll talk with intelligent alpha doug clinton about his new firm after a break. stay tuned. you'reatin"sawbo o wchg quk x"n cnbc. ♪ medical breakthroughs, every second counts. but without investment, those breakthroughs are often paused. citi's seamlessly connected banking, markets and services businesses, deliver global financial solutions. so our client can keep investing in innovations for patients around the world. without pause. for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress. at aes, our energy solutions have powered the world forward

for more than 40 years. and as demand continues to scale, so do our solutions. introducing maximo - our new ai-enabled solar robot. max makes construction faster, safer and more cost effective than ever before. and with max doing the heavy lifting, even more people can join the team. solar energy is changing the world, aes is changing the world of solar. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean.

not spreadsheets... you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. our matching platform lets you spend less time searching and more time connecting with candidates. visit indeed.com/hire

a new investment firm says it's using artificial intelligence as its investment committee. our next guest says ai is telling him the s&p will finish the year around 5575, that the fed will cut 25 bases points today and will actually skip a cut in november. joining us now is doug clinton, founder and ceo of intelligent alpha, that's a new investment firm designed to capitalize on the abilities of ai.

i hope it's better than siri, doug. i was thinking, we're still not there in terms of human consciousness. you would still rather be a human to make most decisions, wouldn't you? is this just some rules based approach to rules-based approach to investing? how does a.i. work for this? >> you mentioned siri. we've been testing this for a year. i don't know how long apple tested siri. it feels like not long enough. we're starting to see not necessarily sentience, but there is intelligence behind the decisions that we see a.i. making as an investor. we have to give it some guidance, and we have to give it some certain data, some certain philosophies, how to think about the world as an investor, but once you give it that, it's pretty good at, then, creating these portfolios and then we update those portfolios over time and the tests that we've done have made us very optimistic. >> what if it's garbage in, garbage out, though? what if your assessments of things aren't accurate? we've seen how that happens when

a.i. uses it in other places. >> it is, and i think that, again, i go back to our testing. we've tested various data sources that we put in and out. some data is not useful, and i think some of the other approaches to using a.i. in an investment context, most of them are more traditional machine learning based. it's very noisy data, and i think they haven't done as well as some people would hope. what we're seeing in our testing and now launching these products is that if you can get good data and combine that with a good instruction set, a good philosophy about how to think about the world as an investor for the a.i., these new large language models, that seems to be more effective. >> can it take some of the emotion out? sometimes i think everything about investing is either fear or greed, so if you got out of that, i'm not sure how predictive it would be. >> i think that's one of a.i.'s superpowers, not just in investing but just in general is that it's not human and by not being human, it doesn't get

susceptible to these emotional swings. you see your portfolio go up a bunch one day, down another day, it makes you make bad decisions. a.i. just doesn't do that. we've seen that in our testing, and we're excited today because we're launching not just the company but our first fund built on this process, built on our a.i. investment committee called the intelligent livermore etf. the ticker is livr. we're launching it here on the nasdaq, and one of the features is it does pull out some of that emotional issue that we see other investors sometimes -- >> i think he jumped off a roof when he was penniless, lost all his money, and he killed himself. >> we're writing a little bit about why we called it livermore. he was one of the first great wall street traders. we're launching as one of the first firms to use large language a.i. models to invest. but he learned a lot of lessons that he forgot, and a.i. doesn't forget them. i think that's the important thing. we don't want to forget them either. >> some of the most accurate and most important laws you can, you

know -- confessions of a stock operator, whatever it was called, you can learn i want there because the market will do everything it can to take as few people along as possible. it's diabolical that way. >> would a.i. be able to -- i just think about sometimes when it's momentum trading, right, if you're very logical, you're dr. spock or something, you would not -- >> the baby guy? >> the captain -- >> mr. spock? >> sorry. the logical mr. spock. he would not necessarily make sense of some of the euphoria trades that happen as they're happening, and i don't want to say nvidia, because nvidia has the numbers to back it up, but we've seen other euphorias. let's go back to the 1990s with the dot com bubble. would you just steer clear of any of those things, miss it on the way up and miss it on the way down? >> a.i. for this use case, they do have the ability to

incorporate some qualitative elements. they separate emotion, but they understand the context of companies beyond just the numbers. it's not just quantitative, and even in our current portfolio for livermore, one of the top picks is meta, so an a.i. company. but what a.i. has said to us, what our committee has said is it's not just about the numbers. it's also that meta is one of the few companies that's seeing a benefit in its numbers. it's seeing it through better ads, better engagement on reels and feed and the a.i. can actually see things beyond just what's happening in the numbers and say, this company fits this paradigm for this reason. >> but it has to have the numbers there to back it up. >> but also because it has such a vast array of training data where we're relying on these models like gpt and gemini, it has a broader understanding of the world. anything that's on the internet, these models have an understanding of, so it can pull in that information as well. >> dr. spock was really --

history is not treating him well. >> i did not ferberize my babies. >> allowed to do whatever they want. i remember. there was a whole generation of kids -- i might be one of them -- that share all screwed because of this guy. >> the other guy was better. >> yeah. live long and prosper. >> live long and prosper. you can through the livermore fund. >> we're working on it. >> thank you. when we come back, top stocks to watch as we head towards the opening bell on wall street. and a programming note for you, don't miss our countdown to today's fed decision. it starts at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. you can catch interviews with s.e.c. chair gary gensler, senator elizabeth warren, and a host of other guests. stay tuned. "squawk box" will be right back. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ( ♪♪ ) partnering to unlock new ideas,

to create new legacies, to transform a company, industry, economy, generation. because grit and vision working in lockstep puts you on the path to your full potential. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

little more than half an hour to go before the opening bell on wall street. frank holland has a look at some of the morning's top premarket movers. >> i want to start with general mills. those shares are trading lower, down almost 2.5% even after beats to the top and bottom line. it's the guidance that appears to be weighing on the stock.

they said they expect full year revenue to be flat to 1% growth, profit to be 1% lower to 1% higher, shares up and down just about 2.5%. vf corp. shares, a price target raise. analysts say they are on track for a turnaround when it comes to cost, margins, and innovation under the leadership of ceo bracken darrell, who celebrated a one-year anniversary in july. they say the sale of the premium brand for $1.5 billion will provide relief to the balance sheet. those shares up just over 4%. for the year, just up 2%. blackrock and microsoft are dl collaborating on a new fund focused on a.i. datacenters and power that could total as much as $100 billion. the global artificial intelligence investment partnership will look to raise an additional $30 billion and also look to debt financing to reach its ultimate goal. shares of both companies moving higher. becky, back to you. >> frank, thank you very much. let's get a very quick final check on the markets before we

hand things off to "squawk on the street." futures are about where they've been all through the morning. treasury, the yields there, have moved a little bit higher on this. you can see 3.68% is the latest for the ten-year. that does it for us today. we will be right back here. >> 25? >> i would say 25. is that what you think? >> i do. >> i think 25 too. we'll see. >> now i don't think the market will sell off on that. >> we shall see. "squawk on the street" begins right now. ♪ good wednesday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. cramer is at one market in san francisco after his interview with marc benioff last night at dreamforce. meantime, the big day is finally here. fed decision 2:00 p.m. eastern time and an even more important press conference. odds of a 50 basis point cut still outweigh a 25. our road map begins with 25 or 50 as traders debate how big the cut will be. the s&p also eyein