mike santoli also mentioned the larger banks and how they might be affected by the rate cut. we've got our eye on net interest income. >> yeah. regional banks, at least initially, popped on the decision. that does it for us here at "overtime." >> yeah, lots more market news to come this week here on cnbc. "fast money" begins right now. live from the nasdaq mafshgt site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money." here's what's on tap tonight. the fed's whip saw effect on the markets. the s&p and dow hitting new records after the fed cut by 50 basis points, but then closed in the red. what chair powell said that got the markets moving. and turbulence ahead? boeing facing furloughs as the company looks to cut costs. the impact coming up. plus, time to buy apple? the level one top analyst is waiting for before jumping in. perking up starbucks. why bank of america sees upside. and what to expect from

fedex earnings tomorrow and the options action on that. i'm melissa lee. we've got a megadesk for you tonight. very important day in the markets. tim seymour, karen finerman, dan nathan, guy adami, and michael contopoulous. we start with the fed rate cut. after a seesaw afternoon, the markets ended fractionally lower. the russell barely managed to lock in a sixth straight day in the green. the central bank's first rate cut in four years sent treasury yields higher across the curve with the yield curve steepening to its biggest spread in more than two years. gold notching a new record before coming off those levels. settling just shy of $2,600. rate sensitive assets catching a bid. the xhb home builders etf

dropping. a let's get more on the decision with steve liesman. steve, you got the first question out of the gate. >> yeah, and i tried to understand what was going to happen next. well, we got the fed with that modestly expected 50-basis point cut, lowering rates for the first time in four years, down to $ 4.75% to 5%. powell said recalibrate five times. >> you'll see that it's -- it's a process of recalibrating our policy stance away from where we had it a year ago, when inflation was high and unemployment low, to a place that's more appropriate, given where we are now and where we expect to be, and that process will take place over time. >> here's where the average fed official thinks rates are going to go 2024, 4.4% or 100 down by year-end.

2025, 3.4%. another 100 down in 2025. and then settling down to the long run rate of 2.9%, which, by the way, was up a tick in this summer of economic projections in 2026 and beyond. powell and the fed tried to counter the notion that this was a panic move by suggesting the economy remains in good shape. three essential points. he said the economy is growing at a solid pace. inflation was closer to the 2% target. fed is more confident we're heading there. and the labor market is still solid, though we based the move today on recent labor market data that suggested some weakening. the doves getting most of what they wanted today. coming a long way, melissa. >> you mentioned you're trying to understand what comes after, steve, and did you think you got a clear picture? what struck me was the fed's confidence that unemployment would actually, you know, stabilize and not get much much worse. and the confidence behind that, the confidence in the ability to step in, should it tick higher

than they expect by year end. >> welling, they do have a lot of ammunition. they feel pretty good about that, melissa. i think that's part of the confidence right there. they've had pretty good luck with -- with the numbers so far. he took a lot of signal, apparently, from that revision of the job market, says, hey, maybe jobs are much weaker than we previously thought. so, that was a reason for them to move, and so, now what they're saying, remember, for months and months, actually years, they were saying, we're squarely focused on inflation. that's our problem. now, they're saying they're squarely focused on both sides of the mandate. and in order to get to the place where they are correctly addressing risks on both sides of the mandate, they have to do what? well, there's your word of the day, they have to recalibrate policy, get it down to a place where if there's further weakening in the jobs market, they're in a position -- i've used this dumb metafor, if you are the guy spotting the gymnast, you have to be in a

place to catch them. the fed was not. it was several steps back, could not step in to help the economy. needs to get down further to be in that place. >> all right, steve, thank you. steve liesman, covering all the action from washington, d.c. a huge, historic rate cut today, so, what do we make of it? michael, i'm curious what your take was of that conference, because that is really the key here, at this point. >> yeah, there's so much going on today that we could talk about, honestly. starting with the confusing message from chair powell. how could you have a good economy where everything is solid, yet, you know, jump in at 50 basis points? right off the bat, i think the message was somewhat confusing. and i think the market reflected that, through the volatility throughout the day. but i think everybody needs to recognize, we're in an incredibly unique environment here. you virtually have never had a fed cut interest rates at a time when profit growth is accelerating and never had an

unemployment rate going out when profit growth is accelerating. it's a weird time frame we're in, and listen, i think today's 50-point cut is that. >> i was impressed by gdp growth outlook. if you have 2% economy -- that's all the market needs to know, with the labor market here, with rates that still now, or we've got guidance that we're going into '26 at 2.90 on fed funds. that should be enough for equities. i think the market tomorrow could be a very different story. we're at all-time highs today. what do you want? and i think this was the dynamic. i agree with michael, a lot of inconsistency. the fed was bold on the statement, not bold, necessarily, in the commentary, and question also is, hey what would the market have done on 25 basis points with the exact same fed statement? i don't know. i think it might have gone higher. >> yeah, i -- i actually somewhat decision agree. first of all, i thought powell did a good job. i thought that 50 basis points was the right amount, because they sort of have been slow,

right? they haven't done anything. could have argued maybe 25 in july. and so, to me, 50 basis points, when real rates are this high, that seemed appropriate, and the other thing about it is, two things. they don't want to risk being behind the curve again. they made that mistake on inflation. and the second thing is, if they do 50 and it turns out to be wrong, all right, that's not the end of the world, they can just slow down, they can do nothing at the next meeting. so -- and i also thought he was pretty -- i thought he was rather sang win on the economy, but i feel real rates this high, he had the room to do it. >> if you look at the most simplistic way, the markets hit all-time highs, didn't sell off after that, had every reason to move in a more distinct manner. it did not. if unemployment peaks at 4.4% and stays there, and that's the highest we see it, that's pretty good, too. by many accounts, some would say that he stuck the landing if

this all pans out, he stuck the landing, mission accomplished. >> yeah, the main comment -- >> by the way, more gymnasts. >> yeah, i think the main comment i took away is that risks are balanced between their dual mandate. they feel like they're going to get down to 2% inflation. he said over the course of this year on many occasions that they are not going to wait to lower interest rates until they get down there, right? and so, now you have 3.6 to 4.4 in the unemployment rate, and he just said they want to support these levels, you know? and he did say that they are historically low, right? so, you take the stock market, you take the way mortgage rates have come down from above 7% to below 6%, he did spending some time talking about rents and the housing market. he said that was the one sort of laggard sort of situation. and he also said that we get -- well, he didn't say the cumulative factor of inflation, but he highlighted who that hurts the most. so, i think this move is focused

on the lower end of the economy, and so, i think it made sense. and so, when you just put it all together here, man, there was more, i think, anticipation for this than there should have been, and i think that nvidia's earnings last month were probably more exciting than this, and we ask that question on many occasions in august. >> couple things. i think the last two times they started the rate cutting cycle at 50 basis points was -- want to say january of '01, market went down 40% over the next year and a half, and again in september, if i'm reading, of '07, over the next year, the market went down 50%. okay, so, that's not enough data, but that's just -- ane anecdotally, that's an interesting thing to look at. the two things i took away from today, the reversal in the s&p, we talked about the reversal the other day to the upside, you got a reversal. and the bond market is really interesting. we've had this 100 times. it's not the inversion, the inversion is the warning sign, is the resteepening. you saw it over the last couple of days. the move until the bond market

today was interesting, and the fact that the vix actual ly closed higher on the day is interesting. >> the movement in the bond market is an interesting one, guy. i would say, because the long end went up, it was more of a reflection that the bond market is pricing in higher growth and inflation. saying that maybe powell is stepping into -- admittedly, a very small mistake, by easing financial conditions, thereby accelerating potential long-term growth and inflation. >> bear steepening, in other words, from the long end, is something that ultimately could say that the fed moved too fast. >> moved too fast, absolutely. >> right. so, that means there is a risk, potentially, of reinflating the economy? >> i think that is the risk. i think that's the thing that no one's talking about. everyone is seeing the unemployment rate going up and so focused on an economy that's weakening, instead of maybe saying, hey, maybe we're just going through normalization and actually going to reignite growth here. >> is that a concern of yours, karen? you see rates come down and

consumers step into the housing market, all of a sudden, the rates on the credit cards are lower, they might buy more. these are real risks. >> right. but i think that, you know, you got to titrate a little bit. just topick up the sports -- >> my forte, let's go. >> so, where is the puck going? inflation lower, unemployment higher. >> right? >> so, i come back to that as a fundamental -- a good support for the 50-point cut. i'm not so focused on -- we want some of these things to ignite, right? we want -- we need help on the housing market. so, you need to have rates come down to get all that stuck existing inventory out. >> why are you so convinced that unemployment is necessarily going to continue to go up? >> i also think the rise in the unemployment rate is misleading. the participation rate has gone

higher. the job opening dynamic is, yes, it's a leading indicator of the labor market, but right now, i don't think the labor market's falling apart. and it is interesting, though, that the fed is different from june, where they were 4% year end on the unemployment rate and now they're between 4.2 and 4.3. so, clearly, a more bearish track. i think the market paid attention to that, too. all right, for more on the fed's big cut, ben eamons is here on-set. it's literally a full house tonight. there's not an extra seat. >> we can't jam anybody else. >> maybe in the middle, because it's a doughnut. >> all the players are on the field. >> exactly. >> on the malt. going with the gymnast thing. >> ben, did you think the message was muddled? >> i don't think it was muddled, but the forecast for the unemployment rate for this year jumping to 4.4, and that's why i think they lowered rates by 50 basis points, because they see the weakening in the labor

market and they don't want to fall behind the unemployment rate, so to speak. once it goes up, it keeps rising. you have to slash rates, really aggressively to get ahead, and the other hand, there was a message about that. the economy is in good shape, it's not really an issue, but we want to keep it that way. the whole forecast was the soft land, and by getting the unemployment rate down over the course of next year, which goes from 4.4 back towards 4, yeah, you need to front load rate cuts. so, i think the other interesting change was the median for 2025 going down 100 basis points, basically saying, like, we're going to front load this easing cycle, to have an issue with the labor market. i think that was part of the push in the market, the risk on sentiment effect. you are drawing a line in the sand in unemployment. >> yeah, that was the one change in the statement from the previous meeting to this meeting, that is in the jobs statement, this time, they said, jobs -- job gains have closed versus mold rated, so, they are paying attention to that.

so, do you have confidence that you can go to 4.4% and that's -- that's the line in the sand? i mean, that seems like, i don't know, arbitrary, or, like you said, once it starts ticking higher, it's hard toll get contl of that. >> yeah, that's how i read that. they put that out there to sort of give a gauge, sort of like, here's really a pinpoint. if we get through that level higher, then they have to change their rate forecast even more, right? and so, i think this is the message for the bond market, too, like, to your point, you get this curve steepening, i guess in part because 50 basis point cut may give the economy a little push. so, it's a little activity already happening on just signaling rate cuts. you get the rate cut, get a little push, the curve gets steeper, but you do draw that line, that 4.4%, to actually keep that activity going. if not, you got to cut more. >> karen thought 50 for awhile,

she's right. let me ask you this. is a 50 basis point cut them basically saying, we've -- we think we've beaten inflation, and it better not come back, otherwise we're going to sort of look pretty foolish three to six months from now, thoughts on that? >> yeah, it's interesting, guy. they asked him this in the press conference. taking the victory on inflation. he kind of stayed away from that. >> smart. >> yeah, smart, probably acknowledging that, you know, you do push the economy a little bit, right? so, there is a possibility that in a year from now, which is a stronger economy that nobody actually expects, stronger economy and you get further above target, again, it's all about employment currently, and i think that's why they want to take their chances on the inflation picture, feeling confident. it's, you know, at a level where it doesn't go higher. >> do you think it's -- you know, maybe not consistent that powell's saying that they're data dependent, yet also e

indicated virtually in the same sentence that the cut cycle has begun? so, he's saying that, you're not really data dependent, right? >> yeah, but he also said multiple cuts, basically implying, we're all consensus here that we're going to keep lowering rates. so, it's not a one deal, one cut and that's it. maybe the 95 cut that we saw at one point, that one cut. so, it is about a trajectory here. >> do you think that trajectory is now 50? >> it could be. by my own calculation, we have the fed funds rate accounting for inflation going up 100 basis points this year, so, 5.5%, inflation going down, that's tightening. plus the balance sheet is strong. you can do a calculation that the fed rounds rate would do on the balance sheet, that went up, too. i calculated 150 basis points of tightening happening this year. i think that's what they want to take away currently.

so, 50 today, make it easy to do another 50 the following meeting. even though that sounds large. >> do either of you fixed income sort of guys, are you confident that 50 won't stoke the economy enough for inflation to come back so that a fed hike, i mean, can a fed hike be on the table possibly? >> absolutely. there's no reason why not. and, in fact -- >> that's not what anybody thinks. >> it's a cycle, and -- >> as you get closer to 2025, remember your comps are a lot easier. so, just on a comp basis, as you get to the first quarter of next year, inflation's going to be harder to keep below or at 2%. now, listen, we can argue whether year over year numbers actually matter, but the year over year number may start to creep back up early 2025, and that might cause a problem if the fed's cut 100, 125 by then. >> what are your thoughts? >> i'm with your thoughts.

i think that's right. because you come from this lower base, yes, you're going to get another base next year, but i think the 50 basis points, think again of what bostic said a couple of months ago. they did a survey in the atlanta area, and they found out from every business owner there, you're going to cut rates, i'm going to have more sales, going to invest, hire more people, see all this activity happening. so, it is already somewhat happening. this 50 basis points is to push to the economy. it should ultimately lead to lower unemployment, hopefully, but it should probably lead to inflation staying above the target. >> doesn't it matter where the neutral rate is, though? it's where we end up. and i'm not sure anybody knows, but you can be sure it's something we've been saying a lot lately is that the band market is in a very different place. the rates market is saying recession. and -- or it's certainly saying a lot of slow economy ahead, not 2%. so -- >> yeah, so, the 3.4% that's in the forecast, that has been

priced in the bond market since the fed started tightening rates in march 2022. if you look at the forward rates. basically immplying this neutra rate that the people think the fed could end and in a economy that's slightly above trend with inflation above target. but that long run rate that the fed put on the dot plot is lower, it's more 2.9%, that's when inflation is supposed to be at target. the bond market is looking like, you're going to hit that short-term rate first, 3.4, and other things we have, tim, 3.4 is also major support in the ten 46 year, in the long-term trend. i think this is a point that the bond market will test. >> ben, great to see you. >> thank you. >> how's your market outlook? has it changed from 24 hours ago? >> well, not really. you can tell from investors it didn't change too much. it's going to come back to where s&p earnings are going to end this year. right now, it seems lofty that

we're going to have 13%, 14% year over year growth. we're spending so much time about talking about this, if the fed did a mission accomplished situation or not, we have to go back and remind ourselves why we had this inflation problem. it was a black swan, you know what i mean? we did lower interest rates then. we had lots of fiscal stimulus that got everything going in a way that nobody in our lifetimes -- maybe guy's, but no one has really seen anything like this before. and so, i actually now years later take some issue with that whole transitory thing that we spent so much time talking about in 2021, and, you know, you think about it, if they get through this without a recession, yeah, they might have juiced it along with fiscal and monetary and everything like that but it's not the end of the world, because 4.4% unemployment is really low, and when you think about what they just guided gdp to, it's basically the average that we've been x-covid, going back to the financial crisis. so, there's a way that things could just stay going.

and the stock market just stays expensive. that's it. you know what i ean? >> just one thing i want to add on inflation. i do think that we could see -- all else being equal, a benefit from housing costs coming down in inflation. it's been sticky, that one's a lag. that's an important element. and i do think it will come down. >> if you saw mortgage rates come down substantially below 5%, i mean, some people have been waiting to kind of tap the equity if their houses, that's actually gone up a whole heck of a lot. >> right, so people can tap that and spend money and the economy's booming and we have inflation. >> assuming you -- making the assumption you can get those loans. just because the rates are low doesn't mean the lope loans are available. if you think magically your credit card rate is going lower, think again. if you think this is going to -- >> those always seem to be sticky. >> i'll say this, i mean, we don't talk politics here, i can almost guarantee within the next six hours or so, you're going to

be hearing how this was a political move meant to help the party in charge and meant to help the candidate on the democratic side. it's going to happen and you're going to hear it over and over again. coming up, much more on the fed's rate move. but first, thousands of boeing employees facing furloughs as the machinist strike rolls on. the latest on negotiations and what could be next. and a technical call on apple. how analysts say you should play the tech giant, when "fast money" returns. ckn o. ba itw

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welcome back to "fast money." tens of thousands of boeing employees will temporarily be out of work after sweeping furloughs were announced in an attempt to preserve cash. the news comes at 30,000 machinists remain on strike at the company. union contract talks resume today. boeing's cfo said earlier this week the company would freeze hiring and raises, and i guess the next question is, when will they do a capital raise, because obviously for investors, that would be, well, immediately, you know, bad. >> i think if you're boeing and you look like you are rushing to a capital raise here, and we should really refer to hhh over here, hyh, excuse me, mr. high

yield. i'll save the h for the ladies, but i do think the credit dynamic around boeing is the most important story. we've gone through this. they are probably still burning some cash now. they are supposed to be neutral by year end. we think there's $12 or $13 billion on the balance sheet. i thought this story was going to be very cash flow generative, it doesn't look so. i think there's a lot of stance and negotiation around this strike right now that has to do with some of the headlines. >> the headlines is, how much could this be a negotiating tactic to say, we're going to furlough, we're in trouble now, we can't afford to give you a 40% raise at this point. >> yeah. i would -- if anyone knows the answer to the question, is a furloughed worker unemployed or not? >> we've gone through this before with the gm strike. i think they count in the rolls. >> can they claim unemployment? >> the crack staff is on it.

>> it's a negotiating -- >> talk about having no leverage, though, if you're these employees. i mean, who are striking, i mean, it just seems like, you know, you better batten down the hatches and try to keep your job. >> they don't have? why? >> i'm just saying, you want to get a 40% increase, the company looks look they're going out of business. so, what are you going to get here? >> the whole fitch and moody's thing, which i'm sure you talked about last friday, that's hovering around, as well. i've tried to make a bullish case for this stock. there is no -- there is a bullish case, it doesn't seem to effect it at all. even when people upgrade the stock, it doesn't seem to help. until you get a day where it trades four, five times normal volume, it probably just keeps grinding lower. >> our crack staff, sandy, our executive producer, says that a furloughed employee still collects benefits. >> so, they are employed. >> but they can claim unemployment benefits. >> so, they can. >> they can collect.

>> best of both worlds. >> i'd love to be furloughed right now. >> tim. you're furloughed. dream come true. >> bring it on. >> see ya. coming up, could there be a buying opportunity in store for apple? where one analyst says you can get into the stock on a pull-back, next. and one component of inflation remains stubbornly high. what if anything can the fed do to help the housing market? you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this. but without investment, those breakthroughs are often paused. citi's seamlessly connected banking, markets and services businesses, deliver global financial solutions. so our client can keep investing in innovations for patients around the world. without pause. for the love of moving our clients forward. for the love of progress.

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welcome back to "fast money." apple closing up nearly 2% today after morgan stanley released its new bull base and bear case prices on the stock. analysts say near-term downside could send shares falling below $200, but at that level, they are buyers of the stock. morgan stanley also reit rerati its overweight. the stock had been under pressure earlier in the week. dan, what do you make of this -- could they still believe that the super cycle is going to happen? >> if you believe that, i got -- i mean, enough of this super cycle stuff. every one of these phones are iterative. at some point, you might have an uptick in services as it relates

to, you know, apple intelligence, it's just not happening this year and probably won't happen in the first half of next year. and i'll point you to samsung. a name that tim looks at pretty closely. 40% of their sales come from smartphones. they've been advertising like crazy for a.i. smartphones. the stock is down 30% from a 52-week high in just two months. what is that telling you about the cycle? google, i doubt they're going to have much to say about pixel a.i. so, apple, this is a -- they've been growing iphones at single digits for, like, a number of years. there's been no super cycles. >> i think some of the samsung move is the semiconductor business, but i have a little bit of a problem with this call. and yet to put it in the right context. if you want to own apple at $200, you want to own it here. >> that's what i don't understand. >> ltimately, either way, it's going to be expensive at $195, it's going to be expensive at $215. the argument on the refresh, the argument on the services

business has given you some of the multiple that actually, that services business has been stronger and more resilient is why you want to buy it. at some point, whether it's a.i. refresh or whether it's the dynamic of just a refresh and also meets a.i., and also, that every a.i. player like chatgpt needs apple to get out to the consumer to serve it up, you want to own apple. >> a.i.-driven multiyear upgrades are when, not if. when, not if, do you wait for 20 bucks? >> the when not if, why wait, that's happening with a lot of stocks. but look at all the a.i.-adjacent names x nvidia. you mentioned samsung. there are a lot of things to be concerned about. flip side of the coin, bernstein pushed back on this weaker sales, as well. so, they're still constructive. if you want to be tactical, i'm still thinking that apple goes back and looks at that june 10th low, which was, i think, $193, but if you believe it's going, you know, super cycle, what are we quibbling over $10, $15?

coming up, a big 50-basis point rate cut out of the fed today. how that effects stocks, rates, and your money. that's next. plus, one section of the market that's particularly high. the housing trade is coming up in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.e-te proposition. it's all day and into the night. the places we cheer. trust. hang out. and check in. they all choose the advanced network solutions and round the clock partnership from comcast business. powering more businesses than anyone. powering possibilities.

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and he places the trade... before anyone hears him talking to himself. [ dog whines ] buy u.s. stocks and etfs for as little as $1, with no commissions. talk about easier investing. welcome back to "fast money."-ponging after the fed's 50 basis point cut. the s&p snapping its seven-day winning streak. the nasdaq dropping 0.3%. rates initially dropping after the rate cut, but climbing into the close. the ten-year now at 3.7% on yields. meantime, fed chair jerome powell facing questions about one part of the market where prices remain elevated. >> it's -- all of the aspects of housing are more difficult, and, you know, where are we going to get the supply? and this is not something that the fed can really fix. but i think as we normalize rates, you'll see the housing market normalize, and, i mean,

ultimately, by getting inflation broadly down and getting those rates normalized and getting the housing cycle normalized, that's the best thing we can do for house holders. >> so, what will lowering rates ultimately mean for the housing market? let's bring in zillow's senior economist. great to have you with us. >> thanks for having me. >> so, at this point, with supply being constrained, you lower the rate and increase demand. what happened here? are you risking heating up the market? >> yeah, look. the reality is, the, you know, markets are forward-looking. and so, fed expectations pretty much priced in, mortgage rates started falling back in august. and -- you know, affordability remains a challenge, but things are improving very fast. incomes are rising at a decentw ago. mortgage payments down 3% from

the same period. buyers have more options than they had in the past few years. the number of active listings on zillow is up 22% from a year ago. but the share of listings, the price may have actually peaked. so, you are going into a slow season that may not be as slow as usual, potentially because there could be some buyers that are looking to strike a deal. >> if a buyer knows that rates are going to be coming down even more, because 50 basis points is just the beginning of an easing cycle, do they wait on the sidelines? do they wait for rates to go lower? does it sort of gum up the works in the housing market? >> look, you know, again, markets are forward-looking, so, while short-term rates are expected to decline gradually, along with the fed funds rate, longer-term rates like mortgage rates could remain anchored near the current level. so, i -- my advice to buyers is, waiting is risky. you know, if you think about what's happening here, the markets are -- the fed did not

do anything the markets didn't already expect. it's basically delivered what the market already expected, and should the fed not deliver rate cuts, you know, the rate cuts that it showed in the summary of economic projections, mortgages could go up from here. and so, i tell buyers, waiting is risky. you might want to act now, instead of waiting, because rates could actually go up, so, you know, today's kind of the perfect entry point for buyers. they have more options. bargaining power has shifted some what from sellers in favor of buyers. the market is slight little more balanced, and so, it's probably the best time to hang onto the lowest rung of the housing ladder. >> it's karen. thanks for being on today. i want to talk about the other side, the supply side. how much -- how much in cuts really start to get to sort of shake the trees of all that existing inventory to come back on the market? >> look, you know, what we're seeing is a big increase in

refinance activity. you are seeing a lot of people who probably bought when rates were much higher, starting to think about, you know, securing a much lower rate. mortgage rate. and i think that's kind of the right decision to make for people who, you know, bought recently, and plan to be in their homes for awhile, to secure a lower rate. if you look at the typical mortgage payment, it's fallen about $1,200 a year just from this spring alone, when mortgage rates peaked. so, it will save them tons of thousands of dollars over the life of the loan. as for sellers, will the -- the improvement in affordability bring some sellers back? i think we'll see more buyers than sellers in the housing market. zillow data shows that well-priced homes and well-marketed homes are still selling in just 20 days. if you have a seller today, you are still in good shape, because basically they are moving faster than they did before the pandemic. >> just curious, are you able to see how many price cuts, you

know, a seller will have to endure at this point? >> yeah, the share of sellers cutting their prices is about 1 in 4. 1 in 4 sellers cutting their prices in zillow data. but i think that might have actually peaked. if you look at builders, builder confidence has increased, the share of builders offering incentives has gone down. the builders offering price cuts has gone down, so, you're seeing that potentially the affordability improvement is getting foot traffic up and maybe more people starting to look again at moving right away before, you know, just in case, bay basically, rates start inching back up. >> thank you. guy? >> we talk about the home builders making all-time highs, which is not that interesting, because the s&p did, as well. but look at the last six to nine months. the moves have been parabolic. what i think, and again -- i'm

sure that i'll wind up being wrong. as much as the market wants to think it's about rates, it's about the unemployment rate. if you believe that cuts rates is going to slow this down, maybe these things are still tradeable on the long side. but if you think it's a pipe dream and we've hit escape velocity, which i do, then i think that's the existential risk to the housing trade. >> the thing about housing and real estate and the stocks associated with them is that there really multiple things that drive them. you have the rate component, the demand component, you have the broad economy, and all of them are working right now. so, the fed just cut 50 basis points, what's going to stop it? and it's a high multiplier industry, so, sort of self-feeding. the more you cut, the better the economy is. that's a great environment. >> it's fascinating how home builders as a group have traded. if you think about also just compared to zillow, by the way, during covid was -- i don't know how high it got, 150 buck as share -- >> then they got into the home buying -- >> and then they got out.

>> really dumb move, but even in the aftermath of that, the stock has been slugging on. i'm actually long zillow. from the moment the fed basically flew transitory out the window and started talking hawkish, home builders as a group are up 50% from that point and 85% in terms of that etf from the moment they made their first hike. so, it's astonishing and makes you feel as if this group is going to go even higher with lower rates. >> the guess was bullish on zillow. >> well, you should be. >> i know. >> is he an economist? >> yes, at zillow. >> i'm long zillow, too. this stock in the midst of the yen crisis was $41, it hit $67, which is, i mean, that's kind of -- maybe a little aggressive of a move. >> if carter were here, he would say correctly, because it made a 52-week high today, zillow, but it actually traded over $200 in

february of 2021. but this looks to be a bearish to bullish reversal. >> huh. >> nice. >> not a pair of twos. >> opposite. opposite. coming up, sipping on a bye. starbucks getting a caffeinated boost from bank of america today. that's next. and out for delivery. fedex earnings on deck. what options traders are expecting from tomorrow's report. "fast money" is back in two. (man 2) what's my next step? oh! ugh. (girl) dad. (vo) you break it. we take it. (woman 2) we can take it. (vo) trade in any phone, in any condition at verizon for the new google pixel 9 with gemini. (man 2) give me a recipe with these ingredients. (girl) let's do that one. (vo) only on verizon.

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welcome back to "fast money." shares of starbucks unable to hold only early gains after analysts raised their price target on the stock. the firm reiterating the coffee giant as a buy, upping the price target to $118 from $112. b of a suggesting starbucks spin off its china division. saying brian niccol's experience could buoy returns. the first item in that report that was mentioned was china, how china is not as great as everybody once thought. >> how long have we been saying it for? listen, i think the chipotle problems were much different than the starbucks problems. so, he walked into a perfect

situation there in terms of what he was able to do. i think it's completely different now. they are more deep-rooted, harder to fix problems that are not going to take place over a quarter or two. so, i'm in the camp that this pop we saw on the back of his announcement is going to get sold off at some point and may come in the form of the next earnings release. >> as somebody who is in the coffee business, i'm curious what you think of starbucks' woes at this point. >> i think they're real you in the sense that day take forever to get their drinks out. they've lost their way with respect to being the third space, right? they're neither home, work, nothing in between. and so, listen, maybe selfishly, as a coffee shop owner, but i think that if they're relying on china, given what's going on there -- could be in for some harder times. >> what if they spun off china? young did that, right? >> it's proving to be a boom for the slow old growing business. definitely yum -- certainly outperformed yum china over the next couple years. i also just look at the chart

and reminded the sequencing here. after that second quarter number, where they disappointed, but also really looked at this management team. it was a harbinger of what was going to come in terms of management, because part of it was just a call on management. some of this is very much china, and some of it is the macro. i think there's a margin issue. but you can make an argument that before that number, starbucks was trading at 85 bucks. it's not that far above it with a new ceo, with the same macro. >> he's got at least one quarter to kitchen sink it. he can make some really bold moves if he wants to and they would probably be received well. >> right. coming up, fedex results on deck, and options traders are piling in ahead of those numbers tomorrow. the earnings delivery they are expecting, next. more "fast money" in two. or a night person. or a...people person.

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with security and get started for $49.99 a month. plus ask how to get up to a $500 prepaid card. call today! welcome back to "fast money." fedex shares with a lot to prove heading into tomorrow's earnings report. one options trader is betting this name will break out of its recent range and deliver more gains when it does report. mike khouw has the action.

hey, mike. >> yeah, so, fedex traded three times its average daily options volume. the options market right now implying a move of about 7.4% after they report earnings, and most of the activity we saw today was, in fact, in calls. the 330-strike calls, the most active. it wasn't that they were just buyers of the 330s, they were trading calendars. so, they're looking for it to move to that strike. and that would be an increase of about 10%. >> yeah. karen, what do you think of fedex? >> well, i sold it too early. i think that, but i think it's a really good look on the consumer, really good look on the economy. a little bit of a look on holiday, not quite yet. >> uh-huh. guy? >> $315ish, we're sort of approaching that now. we've always tried to make the case of valuation. sometimes been right, sometimes wrong. now, it looks like, in terms of valuation, the market sort of -- basically saying, you know what, we can make a compelling case for fedex here, so, it all comes down to, i guess, if you look at, it comes down to express and

margins. >> might one make a valuation case for u.p.s. that has -- >> are you? >> i think you could. it's trading 15 times. expectations for earnings growth is high teens or something like that. maybe you get a gap fill towards $145. >> it's interesting on a pair trade, for sure. and that has been a range where it's been more like $3 350, 400 basis points. i think you've had some pricing stabilization. i like of like fedex here. and i heard a backdrop of slow and steady growth for the next couple of years, and pricing has been reset. i like it. >> all right, mike, thank you. up next, final trades. medical breakthroughs, every second counts. but without investment, those breakthroughs are often paused. citi's seamlessly connected banking, markets

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time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. michael? >> lower rates, axccelerating earnings are going to benefit small caps. >> tim? >> good times on the megadesk tonight. >> your final trade? >> 100% forgot. >> you totally looked at the screen. >> pause for effect. yeah. >> it happens to everyone. karen? >> well, i -- >> you guys are crying. >> i know that moment of panic, like -- what was it, come on, guys, on the screen. i do know mine today, though, and it is match group. i started looking at it after the star board stake, and it's a good free cash flow story. >> dan? >> i heard you talk about this fedex/u.p.s. relationship here and guy said this probably a bunch, u.p.s. problems are u.p.s. specific, but maybe you get that fill.

>> guy used to work there. >> i did. i was employee of the month. i worked there one day. >> what can brown do for you, guy? >> there's magic happening in flushing, number one. >> yes, there is. >> and exxonmobil is going to rear its head once again. >> great to have you, miaechl. thank you for watching >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always and i promise to help you find it. matt money starts now. >> hey. i'm cramer. welcome to mad money. coming to you from san francisco. i'm trying to make a little money. my job is not to entertain but to explain. ca