tv Street Signs CNBC September 23, 2024 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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ends of sports card championship, their battle in indy 11:30 a.m. eastern on peacock. great job on the track. the entire television broadcast crew for 2024. saying so long. congrats to the champions, deegan and lawrence. ♪ welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede and these are your headlines. european equities are losing momentum as they fall to a two-year low as the german numbers miss expectations. this comes as the german lender
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is not planning any further share sales. and global management reportedly eyeing a $500 billion investment in the chipmaker while on the other side qualcomm looks for a friendly takeover. and a key short-term trade a rate and announcing a press conference. this fuels speculation for more stimulus ahead. we have been following on from the data we have seen early this morning. french pmi numbers and germany pmi numbers as well. both of those disappointing the market and, of course, seeing the euro fall significantly. that two-year low that we've seen. there we are. $110.98. half a percent lower and more weakness and what it means for the ecb and economic prospects
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for france as well as germany as well. we have looked at the numbers this morning. the pmi numbers from the eur eurozone. back in contractary territory with the composite figure. looking at the september flash is 48.9 from the 51 is what we saw previously. let's look at manufacturing pmi. the flash number at 44.8 versus the previous august figure which was 45.8 there. even deeper in contractionary territory as we see the september manufacturing data then as well for the eurozone. in terms of services pmi for september is coming at 50.5 versus the services pmi for august. the market was looking at 52.5.
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a little with better off than the market anticipating, but another drawdown on that one. 50.5. contractionary territory while the services pmi just holds on to the expansionary number. we have been tracking the drawdown when it comes to the euro/dollar. that dropoff early this morning happening since the start of the french pmi numbers which came out earlier today going into contractionary territory and the german numbers showing similar effects as well. the euro/dollar down .23%. significant drawdown. what does it mean for the overall market picture? we have been looking that as well because the market picture has meant markets have been trying to figure out where to from here.
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what does the ecb decide to do and the outlook? do they have to continue to, unless they cut rates significantly, but it follows on from stateside with the 50-basis cut point from the federal reserve stateside. markets across europe are benign in terms of the movement. it is relatively higher considering whethat we saw frid which was the down turn following on from taking in what had happened stateside with regard to the 50-basis point cut that the u.s. economy is still okay, but wanting to ensure they want to stick the soft landing stateside. whether they will be able to do that will be interesting to note. the markets went down on friday and you see an uptick there. not necessarily broad based, but this is what are you seeing out of the bourses.
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the ftse 100 is finding gain after the losses early on in the market picture. an hour after the trading day is open in europe, .3% higher for the ftse 100. the market in germany finding some gains. this is the sector or market we will look at following on from the pmi numbers. ho how much influence do the two have on each other if at all. the german equities as well by and large. the french market down .20% and so is the italy market. we have oil and gas prices with the oil prices moving a little bit and so, too, today. the oil price has moved a little bit higher. initially, you had seen oil and gas stocks move higher. telecom stocks are 1% higher this morning. so, too, real estate with the
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interest rate impact may be one to look out for. food and beverage managing a 1% uptick with the utilities similar fold. on the downside, the household sectors. i want to focus on that a little bit. we have bank of america downgrade with the luxury players. you will see the household goods take a hit as well today along the flat line. if you want to zone in and focus in on the luxury players, they're the ones that have taken a hit. .23% lower for banking stocks and construction and material down .25%. now, the german government will not sell more shares in commerzbank and pursue a strategy of independence for the bank. the statement comes after unicredit built up a 9% stake in the lender and signal takeover
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ambitions surprising berlin. in germany, olof scholz's democrats secured a key victory in brandenburg holding off the far-right party in a state it has held since the country's reunification in 1990. winning 32 seats narrowly ahead of the afd on 30 seats. the center right cdu lost ground despite leading national polls winning 12% on the vote. cdu politician and saxony premier urging voters to back the spd and block the far right. now chief economist told cnbc the results shows a broader trend. >> in political terms absolutely. as to the election results in
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the east german states and three smaller states where we had elections in september, they are a move of the national trend. there is a strengthening of the fringes, but on the french parties from the right and left scored around 25% and not the 40 plus in east germany. germany is in stagnation with a risk of recession coming. the part of that is the trouble in china. if china does a little bit more of the domestic demand, that, of course, would help germany a little bit. >> let's get to the head of equity research at brandenburg. the sentiment is really just around how worried one might be about the economy. how worried does that translate into the equity markets as well? >> well, it's just the beginning
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of the conference, so it's a little bit early to say. we look forward to what the companies have to say here. what you have seen the last couple weeks with the profit warnings from bmw and mercedes-benz, these are a lot of their problems related to the demand in china which the german economy is very dependent on. this trickles down into the than tire goods industry. if you look at the midcap stocks, we hardly have any capital goods companies in there due to those problems because the big car manufacturers have troubles which reflects on the supplies as well. there is economic unscertainty which we hope clears by the middle of next year ahead of the general elections in september next year. we are hopeful for '25 really. >> yeah, i suppose that becomes the key question. you had spoken about china and the lack of growth really impacting things, but the
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competitive stance as they get into the automotive space with the evs. can german corporates survive where things stand right now? is this just the normal run of the mill cycle? have you seen this before? in a down time, this is when you invest in these equities. it feels different or am i per happens perceiving things incorrectly here? >> it could be a good time. we were standing here last year and we had german market and midcaps under perform two years in a row and now three years down. we feel equities will become cheap at some point. you have to look at any auto related stock doesn't have any footing in valuation. people don't care about that right now because of the negative momentum. there are other pockets where you look at the german real estate market and transactions
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have been picking up as a result in the declining interest rates. it is a key in pockets. there is also a bit the digitalization in germany which helps the german healthcare industry and there's some demand still from the private sector from consumers which is more d dmis par domestic across the world. >> if i would touch one of those and say real estate as you focused on, yes, fine, you get interest rates to go down, but if you still have consumer confidence weak as it is, does it bear to stand it could begin to pick up again? one wonders whether that dropdown in interest rates will actually mean much for the growth then of those equities as well, then, as purchasers of real estate. >> well, we've already seen a
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big pick up of mortgages and mortgage volumes. it was up 15% year to date. in june, up 40% in july. this is the result of the first interest rate cut. you have a very specific market in german. y you have tenants squeezed out due to the rising rents. the falling interest rates will help you not looking at the total investment point of view, but just on the monthly basis to probably pay less if you buy a property than rent a property because the rental market is tight. >> yeah, does that mean you stay longer in the larger cap stocks in germany? are those the ones you need to stay as you pointed to the small and midcaps down nearly three years now? >> correct. three years now. then again, you see that's why after three years of under
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performance of midcaps -- this is why midcaps start to recover after two years. there is a lot of space on the real estate space for example. scout 24 is the leading real estate portal in germany. we have a company called hyper port in germany. these are two small caps in the billionaire range that will benefit. >> yeah, but one wonders, gerhardt, if midcaps or small caps showcase what you are seeing then in the economy to some extent, that if there's still weakness in the german economy, they would be weaker, too. why is this case perhaps different for some of these? >> because you've got some secular growth trends. the real estate market is on the upturn. entertainment is on the upturn especially after covid in the
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u.s. with people going out and on concerts even if their consumer budgets are tight. the secular growth companies, a company called tony's in the u.s. and one of two children has it. this is a child tentertainment box with a toy on top. it is expanding with one in ten u.s. children having one of these now. you have to dig deep to find the companies that may perform. >> is it time for the market to pretty much rewards you if you are active as opposed to the passive long-shot hope for the top 40 to have led the market and led gains? >> correct. correct. we do think it is about stock picking right now and finding the right companies partly in the right sector, but partly in the right companies. >> gerhardt, thank you for speaking with us.
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head of equity research at berenberg. coming up on the show, uk chan chancellor rachel reeves addressing the labour party. we'll have more after the break. it's like having your own personal language coach. babbel offers live classes with expert teachers for real world conversation practice. it's totally flexible so you can learn at your own pace and with the right practice and coaching, start speaking a new language in as little as three weeks. go to babble.com to claim your limited time offer today.
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french prime minister barnier has rervealed his right-leans cabinet. the left has called it illegitimate and unlikely to last. the left calling for a no confidence motion. charlotte joins us for the conversation. charlotte, wasn't this the whole point? this is why emmanuel macron took so long to vote and he thought i'll do the best i can and now the no confidence vote may be in the offing anyway. >> it will be challenging for
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the government and maybe he can use his negotiating skills to bring someone on board. big momentous moment. bruno le marie has been in charge seven years and now a change of team especially given the back drop at the moment with the public finances and deficit and now set to be reaching 6% this year after the previous forecast of 5.5%. a new team will have a tough job. the two named to the team are not political heavyweight. the finance minister is a 33-year-old mp who has been following macron since the beginning of his political career and the new budget minister as we will fall under the authority of the prime minister rather than the economy minister as usual. emphasizing the importance of barnier will keep a close eye on it. the budget has to be presented
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to the national assembly at the 1st of october. it will be interesting if that budget will be voted on with the group not having a majority. speaking to the new ceremony yesterday, he said he is very aware of the finances of the country. >> translator: it's a consequence of strong decisions and political decisions that our country dare to make at times it was necessary. facing crises and inflation, we have come together to protect businesses and jobs and your wages and purchasing power. you cannot structurally improve the country's finances without reviving it and competitiveness of its economy. yes, difficult choices lay ahead. what has been done until now is necessary to maintain our traction and steady our economy. today is a case of tackling the next stage and new shared challenge. this means resuming the path of
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independence and getting a grip of the public finances. in the coming days, i'll make proposals to parliament on three key issues. the finance of government priorities and strengthen what works in our country and also reduce the dependence on the fin finances. >> that was the new budget minister. the spending cuts alone won't make it. at the same time, the question of increasing taxes may be challenging in the environment is tricky in france which is the m mantra years of cutting taxes and not increasing them. barnier will not increase taxes on the poor and middle thks. maybe for the richer or remove the tax rebates from emmanuel macron. they want to make cuts without damaging growth. that is why it will be tricky budget they have to design for the government.
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overall, the government is very much to the right as you said in the introduction. there is no left-wing politician with one minister. they reach out to the left. the left said they didn't want to take part. there are 12 people that come from macron's party and 10 coming from the we that is why the opposition is the far-righ left-wing bloc saying this. they said they would put a no confidence vote forward. it will be very tricky and unstable in france. there is a narrow path potentially. the budget will give us an indication. >> is the budget going to ultimately determine things? do you think that determines whether you get this motion of no confidence? is that the final line in the sand perhaps that could determine whether you get the
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motion of no confidence? whether the entire administration ultimately is looked at in the negative light after that? >> you will see the powers at play there whether they give into some demands of the far right because the far right is the biggest party. they are the kingmakers. left wants a stvote of no confidence. that's why we might see elements in the program to appease them. we may see tweaks in the pension reform. barnier won't reform it. and the interior minister is quite tough and conservative politician in that new inter year interior minister. that could be tough on immigration. we have to wait and see on policies. this is the party and that's what they are criticizing that
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government. they very much told the keys of the future of the government. >> ten months before they call another election. plus or minus. >> unless the vote of nosuccess. the assembly will remain the same until july next year. it leads to the instability and fra fragmentation is here to stay. at the moment, it's very difficult to find a majority in this situation. >> it's a tough one. for all of the volatility and everything, luckily we have you for it. we will have the chat again. thank you, charlotte, joining us on the latest out of france. now in the uk, the chancellor rachel reaches expexpect ed to rule out awe usterity.
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rea reeves will use the speech to support the stability with the upcoming budget will make the choices for public finances and fix the foundation of dprgrowth. the deputy prime minister kicked off the conference yesterday accusing labour to clear up their mess. >> and tougher ones face families across britain struggling to make ends meet. and, look, i get it. balancing my own department's budget brought my back to my days of 60 quid to get through the week. i know every pound counts. so let me be blunt, we can't wish our problems away. we have to face them. that's the difference between opposition and government.
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but things can get better if we make the right choices. sustained economic growth is the only way to improve the lives of working people and we're fixing the foundations to putting britain back on the path of growth. we'll head to liverpool and get more color of what is happening. there is ser certainly a lot at stake bere t oob 1fohecterst budget. coming up, a look at the uk economy. the flash pmi data next.
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not planning anymore share sales. and intel jumps pre-market as it is eyeing a $5 billion investment in the u.s. chipmaker while qualcomm looks for a friendly takeover. and a rare economic press conference fueled expectations for more stimulus ahead. all right. we have been following on the pmi data. we looked at germany and france and eurozone. uk pmi is seeing the sterling at 13 1.32. the flash pmi number at 52.9. the august figure was 53.8. a drawdown on that front, but still in expansionary territory and remaining resilient, some
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would say, off the back of what we've seen out of the rest of europe. on the manufacturing base, there is a drawdown there from 52.5 in the month of august with the drawdown to 51.5. still in expansionary territory, but still dropping off compared to where we saw it in the month of august. again, as well, here's another one dropping down. the services pmi here. going from 53.7 in the month of august then to 52.81 in the month then of september. which is pretty much looking under the hood and trying to get a clear sense of where is the uk. growth ultimately softening on the back of this. let's remember the previous growth figure we had as well showed a flat stance. no growth at all then at 0%. that gives a clear sense of where the uk is. avoiding recession, but not necessarily shooting lights out. it has, indeed, avoided a major or deep recession as was initially estimated coming out
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of the covid-19 pandemic as well. key question marks were around how exactly it would begin to navigate this entire sphere on the monetary orif phyif fiscal front. we didn't see one last week, but could there be more in store? you have to slay inflation which is why the government is cautious with regards to how exactly they tackle that one. the question mark is if you remain too tight for too long, to that impact the likes of manufacturer services and pmi number re-tracing a little bit. what could that mean overall for the uk economy? that's just monetary side. the fiscal policy side is the one we are looking at now where you see the labour party have its conference now and calling for stability. the call for stability is in the
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form of tax cuts or probations or perhaps cutting off people who are not necessarily paying their fair share as taxes as well. the policies that are then put forward by the labour important are important. not just the labour party conference, but the summit is happening and then you have the october budget set to happen at the end of next month. all of that in store so much still to look out for when it comes to the uk economy and where its dproegrowth lies at t time. very quickly, sterling moving at 162 off the back of the data. overall, the upparttick in euro markets, but it is weaker than we have seen a moment ago. seeing the market perhaps lose a little bit of the steam at 0.2%
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high higher. benign movements after the close in the european markets. here is how you are seeing the rest of the bourses as well. you have seen the dax move higher then following on the trend we have been speaking about the european indices and seeing where the gains could come from. berenberg will definitely be able to make sense if you are a little bit more invested in trying to be an active player in that market. up .1% for the dax and ftse 100 up .23% higher. the market in france and italy down this morning so far. here are your sector gainers and lo losers. we are looking at household goods on other side of this. on the upside. utilities is moving up 1%. so, too, telecom and real estate managing to find gains this morning. food and bev is finding some positive territory.
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.9% higher so far this morning. real estate, let's remember the move among the best gainers with the rea group making a bid for the company, as it were continuing then. the third bid on that one. the downside for the sectors, this is what you are looking at the banks are down .8%. construction and material are .4% weaker. industrials are around the flat line with the basic resources part of the ftse 100 going down .25%. now, to the household goods sector where it really has been interesting to look at because burberry has been relegated for the first time in 15 years slipping into the ftse 250 as part of the quarterly review. let's unpack that quite a bit. shares of the fashion giant are down more than 50% this year alone amid slowing demand. as well as a slew of leadership changes over the past few years. at the same time, burberry is
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among the luxury stocks trading lower today after a slew of target price cuts with burberry cutting its price target for the uk name. bank of america cut its target price and rating for lvmh with hugo boss extended after bank of america cut that stock from buy to under perform. let's chat to john cox head of the consumer equities at kepler. this is a sector that used to have a great appetite. is the appetite completely gone now? >> i think the problem, clearly, is showing which he merged from being a small player in the goods industry to being the massive in the next decade. that is not working for a variety of reasons, specifically the problems in china which is
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weighing on consumer confidence. no matter how the rest of the world may be doing, it will still hurt. unfort unfortunately, the rest of the world is doing well at the moment. concerns of the u.s. consumer and luxury buyer as well, into the u.s. election and signs in europe. the luxury goods industry could be in for a prolonged period of weakness. we have seen it for a couple of semesters. i think most people think things would improve in the second half of the year. no sign of that at the moment. >> are we saying the ones that will stay the course, somewhat, and maybe have this great escape compared to some of the others, are the ones for the ultra wealthy or rich with the likes of hermes or gucci? are we saying this is ultimately the companies will move, but the
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consumer will move with them? >> i think the ultra wealthy are holding upper than the aspirational buyer. the aspirational buyer is where the problem lies. the goods industry is going through a democratization process appealing to a more aspirational buyer which tends to be younger and fashion led. that sort of of buyer can disapr when things get difficult or for whatever reason your brand is no longer fashionable. what i expect is the high-end luxury brands, you will see some slowing, but it doesn't look apparent at the moment with hermes growing at double digit rates. you could see some slowing the next year or so depending on what happens this china and north america and in europe. the guys that are trying to reposition brands and you were mentioning burberry at the start of the show, it is a difficult
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environment to do that at the best of times, and it is particularly hard when things aren't going for the luxury sector overall. >> look at it now. we have a stock price graph up now over the three-year basis with burberry down 67%. kering is down quite significantly as well. is that just the clearer sign that, in fact, when stocks drop off like this, it might be a better time to invest or are the fundmamentals such that you stil continue to worry because there's no demand pickup? you can't see where the demand is going to come from. >> i think there's a lot of different ways and different things going on. you already start to see people talk about the fact that luxury is finished and people not buying luxury goods and prefer to travel and visit places and
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go to nicer hotels and that sort of thing. the luxury goods have been around for the last millennium and will continue to be around for the next little millennium. if you look at the brands and they can be turned around, the problem is the timing. we have seen stalls with both brands there, particularly at burberry with a couple of profit warnings and the new ceo coming on board and not too dissimilar at kering. investors don't have the patience for that when you have other well-positioned companies in the luxury space with the likes of hermes. we also like richemont and prada. this is capturing the luxury buyer's imagination and clearly, those four, gucci and burberry
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products is not the case. >> burberry went through a restructuring. you said it was timing that was important for that one. does that just make it right for acquisition? surely, that's the key question mark. if it is ripe for acquisition, why have no one stepped up? >> i think people are watching the situation closely. the stock is down. if you can take it from the july figures last year, it is down 80%. that is a reflection of, a, what is happening in the industry and internal issues. it is trying to move too far into higher price points and lost core buyers, but haven't really worked hard enough to create the value for the ultra wealthy for something everybody wanted to buy. the thing is what will happen next under the latest? he comes from michael skkors an
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coach. last week as the burberry fashion show, he was saying no, maybe more selective on the pricing. you saw maybe a slight change in the design as well at the launch last week. a quiet luxury coming out of burberry. it's going to take time. clearly, the valuation at the moment, the balance sheet is not too bad either. private equity is certainly looking at the company and i'm sure others in the luxury space are also looking at the likes of burberry. >> yeah. jon, i appreciate the time. thank you so much for that. it's really interesting as well. we'll certainly follow on from this story as well. jon cox at kepler. now rupert murdock is now
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offering rea group offer for rightmove. it will consider it carefully. apollo has moved to make a $5 billion offer for intel according to bloomberg. this comes days after qualcomm offered a deal. coming up on the show, the k fallout from the fed's rate cut continues with christopher waller saying it is not behind the curve. we'll have more after this. stay tuned. your own custom store. scale faster with tools that let you manage every sale from every channel. and sell more with the best converting checkout on the planet. a lot more.
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and industry tells cnbc the country ruled out the world's largest trade deal with china over a lack of transparency. >> between '19 and '22, '23, every meeting they tried to persuade me in joining us. i think they recognize that india is not going to join the asset. not only did it not reflect the guiding principles, nor in the nation's interest to do a free trade agreement with china. when i got into the commerce and ministry industry in june of 2019, we were at the far end of negotiations of the asean. it was the day we accept joining the asean. i got only three or four months
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to really get a hang on what was happening, but clearly, i could see it was not in the nation's interests or not in our interests. it did not reflect the sectors. in some form was nothing but a free trade agreement with china because at that point in time, we already had an fta with the asean of ten countries. we already had an fta with japan and korea. it was in the final deal and we put that on the back burner. and new zealand, we don't have much business interests. at that time, the trade was $300 million. million dollars. effectively, the only country
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left was china and certainly nobody back home would like to have an fta with non-transparent economy and opaque and economic practices where both trading systems, political systems, the economy, the way it is managed is completely different from the democratic world. >> you don't think if you pushed for a hard bargain that you could get your terms and conditions? this is what noted economists in the region highlighted. it can be beneficial for india with a hard bargain. >> i think very often when you see through the lens sitting outside the country, you don't realize how difficult it is to compete against a non-transparent economy which uses the world trade organization most favored nation policy to its advantage.
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and floods different countries with goods at similarly low prices and very often not meeting up to quality standards. >> sure. >> and the impact that non-transparent economies can have on, let's say, india's growth story especially with the predatory pricing possible. we've seen that happening in many products. in fact, when we were negotiating, we had a series of meetings. in one of the meetings with my chinese counterpart, we were both having coffee. i actually picked up a cup and told him the cup we see on the shelves in india is often made from china. and the price at which you manufacture, you ship and you retail in india is less than the cost of raw materials in our country.
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how can you manage that? and smugly, he said this is our efficiency. i said fine. is it okay that we agree that anytime we want information about how you are able to efficiently do that or whether the payment for that is fully made from india and we want details of the transaction. would you be willing to share that and he said that's not possible. that's internal. >> you want full transparency? >> i could see and sense very clearly that everything is not kosher. now china has made a surprise cut to the short-term policy rates lowering the 14-day rate by 14 points. it announced a rare news conference for tomorrow set to be hosted by three top officials, including the
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country's central bank governor. speaking of central bank governors, fed governor christopher waller backed the 50-basis point cut this month with inflation falling faster than he expected. waller pointed to core pce running below 1.8% over the last four months giving the central bank space to ease. waller also backed the view of fed chair jay powell saying the central bank not falling behind the curve. >> we could cut rates even if the economy was doing fine. that's the position we're in. we are seeing inflation coming down and we're seeing the labor market get to a point where we think it's solid and close to where the long-run employment rate should be and it's time to cut. it's not reacting to we're falling behind or anything like that. i agree with the chairm. i do not believe we are behind. we are doing exactly what we agreed to do at the beginning of
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the year. >> the markets are close to even whether the fed will cut 25 or 50 at the next meeting. another bumper rate cut is a possibility. >> if the data comes in fine, nothing bad one way or the other, you can imagine going 25 at the next meeting or two. if the labor market data worsens or the inflation data continues to come in softer than everybody was expecting, then you could see going at a faster pace of 50. >> jpmorgan ceo jamie dimon said the fed was right to cut 50 basis points. however, speaking at the atlantic festival, dimon warned to the long-term risks. >> i hope we have a soft landing. i'm more skeptical than most people. i hope it's true. i'm skeptical that inflation is not going to go away. because a lot of things in the
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future which are inflationary. not talking next year. the deficits are huge. the rem-militarization is inflationary. i don't see the offsets to that. we have gone from the lower rate to higher inflation down the road. whatever it is, we'll deal with it. >> mthat may be an issue. you still have a lot of spending coming out of the government and so much so, it created the issue we're about to talk about. the republican lawmakers revealing a stop gap bill to fund the government for months. triggering a partial government shutdown. now in a blow to former president trump, the bill laid out by house speaker mike johnson, does not include
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requirements to prove citizenship before voting. this comes with a plea from chuck schumer for a basic extension of government funding. a new poll conducted by nbc news shows vice president kamala harris is leading trump by five percentage points. that's a sharp turn around from nbc's last poll before biden exited the race which had the president trailing trump by two points. nbc's brie jackson joins us with alittle bit more on this one. not wanting to debate is trump again then to kamala harris saying this would be too late, but the polls are certainly not necessarily favoring trump as much as they were before, brie >> reporter: that's right. good morning. so former president trump has refused to do a second debate with vice president kamala harris, who is challenging him
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to one. she is many ccoming off a big fundraising campaign. the vice president raised $27 million during a new york city fund-raiser sunday and that is the biggest total since president biden dropped out of the race. former president trump says it's too late to keep debating because early voting has already started. a new nbc news poll does show that harris is gaining momentum among some key demodemographics. she has a commanding lead against women and being competent and effective. there are areas where trump is a stronger candidate, including on the economy and border. >> 43 days to go. brie, we'll have you along for the ride. than thank you for that. that's it for today's show. "worldwide exchange" is next. my name is arabile gumede.
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here is your "five@5." futures are mixed as we head into the final week of september which out performed the slump. coming up, the full week of investors for post-fed data and a number of fed speeches. and intel gets a multibillion dollar offer. oil is higher following th
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