it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here is your "five@5." futures are mixed as we head into the final week of september which out performed the slump. coming up, the full week of investors for post-fed data and a number of fed speeches. and intel gets a multibillion dollar offer. oil is higher following the

escalating tensions in the middle east. israel and hezbollah vowing more violence after the weekend strikes. helima croft is here with insight. and leaders are rolling out a new plan to fund the federal government and avoid a shutdown. we are live in washington. another potential shutdown. this time at the ports across the united states. we look at the billions at stake and the industries that could be impacted. it's september 2rd, 2024 and you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc. good morning. thanks for being here on this monday morning. i'm hollafrank holland. we begin with the stock futures. you see a mixed look in the pre-market. the s&p fractionally lower down a point. flat lining. the dow looks like it would open almost 40 points lower.

the nasdaq up just about 12 points. we want to look at the biggest laggards on the dow right now. you see chevron at the top of the list down almost 2%. tr travelers down .50%. the stocks coming off a solid week jumping on the back of the fed rate decision. the dow and s&p up 1%. the dow notched a new record close. the nasdaq up 2%. a couple percentages off its record high as well. also, one stock to watch today is intel. we have new reports of apollo global with a new bid on that. we want to check on the bond market. remember, we get pce on friday and a nearly dozen fed officials speaking this week. the benchmark at 3.73.

moving higher since that fed rate decision. the two-year at 3.57. the 30-year above 4%. this is important. the 30-year is a read on inflation expectation. that yelield above at 4.081. we are watching oil with the escalating violence in israel against hezbollah. important to note the levels are above key sentiment levels. $70.94. brent crude very close to $75 a barrel. trading at $74.40 a barrel. $75 is the key level with the international benchmark with oil. we will have more with rbc's helima croft coming up in a few minutes. we want to move to see how europe is shaping up as its trading day gets under way with arabile gumede in the london

newsroom. arabile, happy monday. >> happy monday, frank. one thing for sure is the data which moves things along. european flash pmi missed expectations for september sending the euro to the two-year low against the greenback. the french composite reading at 47.4. that is below the august 53.1. you have germany which followed with data suggesting that europe's largest economy had slipped into recession. the euro flash pmi disappointed with the contraction in business activity and business in the uk showed slowing growth. you had the uk numbers and the overall europe showing again a contraction with weakness in the market. what does it mean for the market movement? not much really. it's a mixed picture so far. the uk and the german market managing to move higher. rest of the market, however,

trying to find its feet. frank. >> arabile, thank you very much. good to see you as always. time for a check on the top corporate stories, including new twists with intel. we have silvana henao with more. silvana. >> good morning. apollo has offered up to $5 billion in intel. the report adds that intel kpek to executives are weighing the proposal and this comes as qualcomm is looking for a takeover. and speaking of chips, taiwan semi and samsung has discussed building new factories in uae in the coming years. both companies have sent officials to the uae. the companies have shown an interest in becoming a key

player around artificial intelligence. back here in the u.s., house speaker johnson announcing a new temporary government funding proposal ahead of next week's deadline to get a deal done. the new deal would fund the government until december 20th and doesn't show the proposals backed by former president trump. the house is expected to take up that bill on wednesday, frank. >> we'll have emily coming up later in the show to look at that. silvana, thank you very much. >> you got it, frank. >> see you later on in the show as well. moving attention back over to the markets. september is historically the worst month of the year with the markets with the average decline of 1% for the s&p 500. the index fell 5% last year and 9% back in 2022. we're seeing a very different 2024. the major averages are tracking to post the september fed cut for the first time in five

years. this sets up for more good times ahead is raeann from callan. >> good morning. >> we had the fed rate cut last week and it was bigger than some people expected at 50 basis points. since then, tech out performed cyclicals and industrials. what does that tell us about the market sentiment? >> i think the market is really happy that we're having lower rates now. tech has always been a sector that benefits a lot from lower rates, but overall, we would expect the broadening out story to continue as we saw leading up to the rate cut with small caps doing well and cyclicals leading well. tech and the artificial intelligence theme that we've seen will likely continue for some time. >> we're showing the chart here. the moves when it comes to tech with materials and financials on the list.

we don't get fed rate cuts with the markets at record highs. in your mind, does that mean we have volatility ahead? the markets are at highs right now. >> typically even if we get rate cuts when we are close to highs, the market still continues to move up. a lot of it has already been priced in because this was a telegraphed rate cut coming. starting can 50, the economy is still strong and a preventive measure rather than waiting for the economy to show softness. it has been a positive. that will continue to be supportive of the markets and could with rates coming down, we'll see more pick up, hopefully in consumer confidence and lead to spending and supportive of the markets as we move forward. >> friday, obviously, we get pce. what does that mean for someone like yourself that is an investor? does that have the same weight

as it had? now we have a general sense of where the fed is going and the summary of economic projections that people call the dot plot. we have a map of where we expect them to go. >> right. pce is important and that is what the fed uses in the process on the inflation side. the focus has shifted more toward the employment picture now. barring any kind of really unusual number that is very unexpected, we should just continue to move forward as you said the dot plot has been put out there and we would expect rate cuts to continue as we move forward. >> raeann, i want to get to your research and things you are watching. these are the three things you are watching since july 10th. small caps and value and growth. you are noting small caps. what do you see in there? what is meepaningful with the stock moves before july 10th?

>> those expectations have been largely priced in. we do expect the trend probably to continue as we move forward. leading up to this, of course, we have real strong out performance by mega cap tech. since july 10th, there is a 10% difference between growth and value indexes with growth actually down slightly and value up almost 8%. small caps up 10%. with rates coming down, small caps are poised to benefit the most with more debt on the balance sheets and half that debt being a floating rate versus large-cap companies. the broadening out now we don't need -- there's less concern about the economy. those mega cap tech stocks are seen as a safe haven investment in the equity mashltrkets in addition to the a.i. it is okay to invest in small cap companies and cyclicals that

are sensitive because we're in this declining interest rate environment now and the economy remains strong. >> all right. raeann, thank you very much. for more on what is driving the markets and the trading day ahead, go to cnbc.com/pro. we have more to come on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors need to know today. and escalation in the middle east with a broader disruption happening. we have rbc's helima croft weighing on the risk. and what it could mean for shares which have more than doubled so far this year. and mortgage rates hovering at the lowest level in two years with the fed's rate cut strategy could mean for the housing market, including home prices. we have a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us. nk arkets and services businesses,

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since february as energy traders navigate the risks with last week's fed rate cut. take a look at oil prices. moving higher in recent minutes. wti fractionally higher. was lower a short time ago. joining me now is helima croft from rbc. a contributor and trend of the show. >> thank you for having me on, frank. >> let's talk about this. oil hitting key sentiment levels. wti back above $70 a barrel. brent crude near 75. how should investors deal with this? >> i think a lot of investors faded early on when it did not look like it would expand to iran. we had the exchange of rocket fire in the spring that did not lead to a wider regional war, people said story closed. i continue to say lebanon is the

story to watch. lebanon is viewed as the pathway to more direct iranian involvement. it is a principle sponsor of hezbollah. they would be concernedquidatio important proxy. israel is calling for evacuation of towns in the south. the question is whether israel would launch invasion like in 2006. this time, push hezbollah off the border. what does that mean for iran coming in? >> what's not priced in? we are seeing the tensions here. october and april. prices go up and they seem to go down when it doesn't escalate beyond the regional conflict. what's not priced in? >> here's the issue, frank. we have not had major disruption to the energy supply. that's why the story is on the back burner. it's question is could you see a pathway similar to 2019.

people are saying no oil is at risk if we look at 2019 where we had significant attacks on energy infrastructure by the iranians. pipelines hit, tankers attacked and the saudi facility also hit. the question is is there a pathway to the war that endangers energy supplies. we have not seen that happen yet. iran is deeply involved in hezbollah and the question is if hezbollah is facing liquidation, would that be a path to iran coming in and the question is is israel potentially going to turn their sights on iran? terrorists groups in the region. will you see israel take stronger action against iran? >> you are saying it's not priced in. if you say it's not priced in -- >> not fully priced in. the story gets faded because we haven't seen energy supplies at

risk. now given thefact we are on a precipice of a real second front in the war, i think market participants should be paying attention to the middle east right now. >> two things we have to talk about. fed rate cuts and chinese demand. fed rate cuts. is that going to give a boost in demand? what is going with china? >> the china story has been the really big drag on sentiment. if you ask why oil prices have been soft is the underwhelming chinese story. the question demand is does the fed rate cut provide enough of a tailwind in terms of broader macroeconomics sentiment that potentially lifts oil prices next year? certainly, the rate story is something opec is watching closely. they kept their barrels off the market because, in part, the issues around uncertainty over fed policy. again, that is a very important story for oil markets next year.

right now, the story we have to watch is what happens in the middle east. >> helima croft saying keep an eye on the oil markets. not fully priced in. we have seen oil go fractionally lower to fractionally higher. helima, thank you. >> thank you. and coming up, woulding the crypto crowd that could impact the 2024 election. the latest pitch when "worldwide exchange" returns. unlike some medicines that only treat bipolar i, caplyta is proven to deliver significant symptom relief from both bipolar i & ii depression. and in clinical trials, movement disorders and weight gain were not common. caplyta can cause serious side effects. call your doctor about sudden mood changes, behaviors, or suicidal thoughts right away. anti-depressants may increase these risks in young adults. elderly dementia patients have increased risk of death or stroke. caplyta is not approved for dementia-related psychosis. report fever, confusion, or stiff muscles,

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we are turning to the 2024 presidential race. vice president kamala harris making her latest pitch to woo the a.i. and crypto communities. harris has vowed to grow the sectors during a new york city fundraising event yesterday. harris' comments focused on protecting consumers and investors mark the first time she commented on crypto as the presidential nominee. the crypto industry has spent $190 million in donations for the election. we are watching shares of palantir and dell trading lower. for palantir, it has been an interesting journey. it was founded in 2003 with funding from wall street and bay

area and venture capital arm. two of the founders, alex karp and peter thiel are the outspoken people in tech. now with the artificial intelligence platform, or aip, palantir has a growing commercial business. those doubling since the release of aip and the boot camps where employees show customers how to use it. cnbc spoke to customers at the recent customer event at palantir and aip. >> what it allowed us to do is evaluate a patient's clinical information all at once as opposed to over many hours and decide and allow us to treat decision making from a data point of view and how the patient should be cared for immediately. >> the power of palantir is able to adjust and take that data in

and make sense of it and understand it and build logic and applications to act on that. it's really the first tool we had and the partnership and not the software, but the partnership we have with palantir and the resources. >> since going public, shares have climbed 400%. they also buy shares and the question going forward for a stock with a forward pe above 90 is can the stock live up to the lofty valuation and expectations? we spoke with alex fishman. he sees palantir as one of the most transformative companies in this generation and similar to r nvidia. >> the core of our thesis is as early as 2013 is a technical barrier. the technical moat has only

widened. what we're seeing today with the product where anyone can go online and use it, this is like unheard of or the holy grail for the enterprise company. we put palantir and nvidia on the same growth with core structure. at this point today, get val from you a.i. >> for more on the interview with alex karp, go to cnbc.com. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," another potential blow to the supply chain that could happen in a matter of days. the billions at risk if the port workers hit the picket lines. and celebrating hispanic heritage month. as we head to break, here is the ceo of tata harper skincare.

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i have been sitting down for the last four days with speaker johnson, his staff and my staff and we're coming close to an agreement. we can get this done, but we can't have any delays. >> that was senate majority leader chuck schumer hopes that the congress can avoid a shutdown thanks to the funding deal. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm frank holland. we will have more on that story coming up in the half hour. first, a check of u.s. stock futures. a bit of a mixed picture. we'll show you in a second. the s&p fractionally higher right now. the dow would open 30 points lower off the lows of earlier this morning. the s&p up 23 points. fractionally higher. right now, we want to take a look -- the nasdaq fractionally

higher. intel right here at the top of the list. we told you that apollo global is looking to invest and qualcomm looking to acquire the company. those shares up 3% followed by keurig dr. pepper and tesla up as well. we get pce data on friday and nearly a dozen fed officials are speaking this week. a lot of chatter out there. the benchmark at 3.74. moving up since the fed rate cut last week. also important to note as we do, the 30-year back above 4% yield. 4.09. remember, this is the read on inflation expectation. pce coming up on friday. we are watching oil on the back of the escalating violence over the weekend. a live look at lebanon right now. there appears to be smoke in the dis distance. helima croft from rbc was on

earlier. she doesn't believe this tension is priced into the marpket. we saw oil moving higher. wti up .25% right now. well above the key sentiment level of $70 a barrel. brent crude close to $75 a barrel. up fractionally right now. that is the money set up. let's turn our attention to washington, d.c. and the latest developments around the race to get a funding deal approved. house speaker johnson revealing a short-term plan to avoid a potential shutdown ahead of the deadline. emily wilkins has the details of that plan. emily, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, frank. congressional leaders released a plan over the weekend to keep the government funded past next weeks, if, of course, they can pass the bill include both chambers. let's dig into the bill released on sunday. it is a compromise to fund the government until december 20th to give lawmakers more time to

hash out detailed funding for next year. it includes $231 million for the secret service to bolster security following the second assassination attempt on donald trump. now this bill does not include that measure to require voters to show proof of citizenship. senate majority leader chuck schumer, we heard from him earlier, and later, he told reporters that there's a chance a shutdown could be averted this week. >> there is really good news. we can avoid the government shutdown for all the pain it would cause new york and america this week. >> reporter: speaker mike johnson told his house republican colleagues in a letter while this is not the solution we prefer, but the most prudent path forward under the circumstances. he goes on to say, as history has taught and government affirms, shutting the government down 40 days ahead of an

election could be malpractice. he cited a survey that shows 2/3 of americans oppose a shutdown. that includes 39% of trump voters. now a vote to avert the shutdown isn't finalized yet. we are expecting the house to vote on wednesday and later today, the panel to take the steps to move the bill this afternoon. frank. >> emily, you know, speaker johnson called it a fateful election. it is about 40 days away. i do have to ask how does the election play into this and how does former president trump factor into the negotiations? >> reporter: frank, the election is hanging on everyone's mind. every time the government goes into a shutdown, there is a concern particularly within the republican party to be blamed for it. that is particularly true when you have an election right around the corner. if lawmakers have to stay in d.c. to figure this out, that's less time for them back home and campaigning and on the campaign

trail. that puts a bunch of pressure to get lawmakers to get to yes. donald trump said if they didn't get the citizenship voter i.d. funding, he called for the government to shutdown. in the past, when trump calls for a shutdown to happen, a bulk of republicans vote for it n anyway. speaker johnson talked to trump last week about the government needing to be funded. >> emily wilkins live in d.c. thank you. we move from one potential shutdown to another potential shutdown. today, we are one week away from a potential strike of the iea union on the ports that could become a disruption to the supply chain as we enter the holiday season. if you look at the imports and exports, more than $2 billion in daily trade could be disrupted. the strike could cause an

immediate disruption to a number of industries. here are the number of goods that move through the ports. overall, it is half of the imports and 2/3 of u.s. exports. the impact to holiday season remains unclear. freight and online shipping marketplace shows 70% of goods would have normally been imported this time and a number of other factors have led many retailers to import earlier according to the freighter ceo. >> people remember the pandemic and people remember the increasing weather disruption in the world and labor disputes. in the last few weeks, people are aware of the strikes on the east coast and ports. for all of those reasons, retailers have gotten ahead of the curve and shipping earlier for the holiday season. >> currently, container shipping rates are elevated with the read

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." take a look at the u.s. stock futures. the s&p is flat right now. the dow would open a few points lower. the nasdaq is fractionally higher. we are looking at gainers on the s&p 500. at the top of the list, you see inn develop. intel. intel shares moving higher 4% on the news that apollo global is looking to invest. palantir and dell enter the s&p on the laggard side. entering in the red. we get fresh look at the housing sector with the latest look at home prices and sales. mortgage rates are hovering at the lowest level in two years.

30-year fixed rates holding above 6%. ticking up slightly last week in the fed rate cut announcement. now looking for more cuts to ease the cost of borirowing mor. let's bring in the chief economist. >> thanks to be here, frank. >> let's talk about the moves in the mortgage market. slight uptick, but the expectation is mortgage rates will go down. how does that impact the housing market going forward in your mund? mind? >> think i we may see uptick since the market is priced ahead of the fed with the rate cuts we are going to see this year. fro there is room for those to move together. expectations for the fed to cut are very high right now. given the improvement we have seen, it is a substantial change

from october. if you look at the cost of the affordable price, those costs have gone down $340 thanks to the lower rates we are already seeing. if you translate that to buying power, that is more than $70,000 for someone buying what is a typically priced home. it's a big sea change in what consumers can afford. we need to see time before consumers are aware of the change and we will see the bulk of that in the spring of 2025. >> danielle, you are talking about the $340 difference of monthly payments. are people looking to maximize or looking to save on monthly payments? ? i thin . >> i think that's a really good question. especially how stretched consumer budgets are right now relative to home prices and current incomes. so far, price pressure hasn't relented in the market. we have a market where inventory

is improving, but the housing market is strained from the supply perspective. there is likely to be a tug-of-war between those two and consumers might prefer to save, but continue to spend the extra purchasing power to compete in the housing market. >> overall, you believe fed rate cuts lead to a lower price in the mortgage market. i do want to ask you, as we see lower rates, that will put more money in the hands of consumers. is there any concern that money might go to other areas outside of housing? we have a housing shortage in the u.s. if consumers have more dis disposable income, do you think they will spend that on housing or spend in other areas? >> i think the first step for consumers is to find a house. this is mostly going to affect home shoppers. we have consumers with spending power based on the fact that many are locked into lower mortgage rates. for consumers right now, getting

into the house is key and that could lead to a modest uptick in consumer spending. i think it is mostly about housing affordability at this point. >> we have to wait and see. mortgage rates above 6%. many believe it has to get below 6% to move the market. danielle hale, thank you. coming up on "worldwide exchange," the one word that every investor needs to ow kn today and what the ceos of ibm is telling cnbc about the tech in india. we'll be right back after this break.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." the "wall street journal" is looking at taiwan semi and samsung looking at plants in the uae. india prime minister modi is in new york ahead of the u.n. ass assembly. he immemet with ceos of tech companies. steve kovach is joining us now. steve, good morning. a lot of big named ceos there. >> reporter: frank, big names meeting with narendra modi and most of them tech ceos and pharmacy ceos ahead of the

united nations general an ssemb this week. among them is jensen huang and sundar pichai. the topic, of course, was artificial intelligence and tech companies like apple and google see india as a prime growing area. i was able to catch up with two you said, huang and krishna. he gave me a quick overview of the meeting with modi and understanding the importance of a.i. >> prime minister modi is inspiring. every time i've seen him, he is such an incredible student. loves technology, loves artificial intelligence. he was one of the first people i explained artificial intelligence to. this is an extraordinary time for him and time for india because it's a reset of the whole computing stack. >> reporter: frank, i asked him if he discussed with modi clearing up the red tape we hear

from american companies complaining about when they try to invest in india. he said it is not really a problem for his company in india. take a listen. >> countries will go wand beneft their country. if you look at the geopolitical lens with india and u.s. is going to be strengthening both nations to the point where you can take care of all of the other secondary issues. >> reporter: that was the wrong sound there. i did talk to ibm ceo krishna and he told seema mody and he said u.s. encouraging doing business in india. modi gave sundar pichai praise for committing to invest $20 billion in india and pointed to alphabet investment in flipcart

and geo. and because eli lilly was there looking for protections for u.s. companies operating in india. frank. >> we had big news with intel today. did he have any comments about that? >> reporter: yeah, huge news. that was when that broke on friday, that was blockbuster. i asked huang about that. he is largely to credit for what we have seen at intel and the downfall in recent years catching up to the a.i. moment. he told me he wouldn't be too concerned if those two companies did end up merging because he's really focused on what nvidia is doing. they control that entire technology stack. that means not just the chips that nvidia makes, but the software and firmware that power the chips.

he ses that as a real competitive advantage nvidia has over intel and qualcomm. >> steve kovach, thank you very much. good to see you. coming up here on "worldwide exchange," the energy play our next guest says is high on her shopping list and why it could add to the already 15% jump isth year. if you haven't already, follow our podcast on apple or spotify or other podcast apps. much more "worldwide exchange" coming up after this.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." here a recap of the biggest stories this morning. apollo is looking to invest in ill intel. house speaking mike johnson reveals a plan to avoid a shutdown and fund the government until december 20th. and china is giving a rare briefing on the economy tomorrow. and alaska airlines suffers an i.t. outage which lasted two hours. and vice president kamala harris making a pitch to the

a.i. and crypto communities in the fundraising event in new york city over the weekend. elon musk is backing down the fight with the brazil supreme court. incl here's what to watch this week. we get economic data on housing and durable goods and topped off with the pce on friday. we are getting earnings from micron and costco and kb. as we wait for the pce data on friday, a lot of discuss focused on the fed jumbo rate cut last week. we could learn more about what went into the decision with a dozen fed officials speaking in the next few days. that includes michelle bowman, the first to dissent since back

in 2005. joining me now is stephanie link of hightower. good morning, steph. >> good morning. >> how do you see today shaping up? what's your "wex" word of the day? >> the word is confidence. the confidence that the fed is engineering a soft landing and confidence we are owe entering t cycle. not without volatility, frank. just think about the last three weeks. three weeks ago, we were down 4% in the s&p 500. we rebounded 4% the following week and up 1% last week hitting new highs. i don't think we're done with the volatility into the election. any weakness, though, i would be a buyer and that is because the growth in the economy is much better than expected. again, we are getting rate cuts. that's a great combination. if you think about last week's data, better retail sales and manufacturing and better starts

and permits of 5% month over month and weekly jobless claims at a four-month low. all this adds to 2.9% growth which should be good for earns. >> it should be good for earnings. tech out performs the sector. what does that say about market sentiment and how people are viewing this market? >> i think we have been seeing a broadening out, frank, over the last couple months. it was tech's turn to take the lead, if you will. i don't think it's tech and everything else. i think it's both. i think you can add to technology on weakness. you also want to add to financials and industrials and materials and discretionary because of what i mentioned before with the data coming in across the board better than expected. there's a lot to choose from and you want to be choosey in terms of what you pick in the volatility. >> let's talk about what you are

choosing. your pick is exxon. i was looking at the lseg estimates with the oil company. refining and marketing companies expecting to see earnings down 64% year over year in q3. production down 11% year over year. where is the motivation behind the call with the estimation with earnings? >> it is cheap at 1 times for13 times estimate. it is going to triple their production on the e & p side. they have a goal growing 10% between now and 2027 in organic growth. we have a couple catalysts. december 11th is an analyst meeting and a bunch of projects to lead to $4 billion in earnings we between now and 202.

there are a couple of catalysts and it is attractive. >> how do you view the middle east? we had helima croft of rbc on earlier. this is not fully priced in? >> i think a lot of it is priced in to the oil market. i don't think you need oil to go up higher than this for the stocks to work. even valuation. oh, by the way, they mint money, frank, at $30 oil. at $70 oil, they are printing money and returning it to shareholders in dividends and buybacks as well as in cap ex and cap ex cycle. that is positive. >> the department of energy is looking to refill the petroleum reserve at under $70 a barrel. does that factor in your decision? >> no, not at all. that is kind of noise to me. if i step back and just look at where are these companies in general, not just exxon, but

where are the companies making money? i want to see continued increases in dividends and buybacks. by the way, we did get a buyback last week from diamond back energy. you have a couple of good companies doing great things. >> stephanie link, thank you. that will do it for us. one more look at futures. mixed picture for futures all morning long. the dow would open up 13 points lower. that does it for us. "squawk box" starts right now. good morning. stock futures are relatively flat after the dow closed last week at a record high. we get you ready for this week's trading just ahead. companies are circling around intel. reports sacy qualcomm has floatd a takeover and apollo global is offering billions. we'll bring you the latest. and it is government funding

week. house speaker mike johnson presented a funding bill to avert a shutdown. it's monday, september 23th, 2024 and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures at this hour. right now, a little bit of a mixed picture. s&p indicated up by 5 points. the nasdaq indicated up a bit more. this comes as stocks closed higher last week. the s&p was up by