d ink he's still pushing us. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for whatching. [music playing] ♪ very good morning to you. welcome to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro with the headlines. china releasing stimulus and sending equities to the two and a half year high. and tempering expectations

as jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon says there is reason to be cautious. >> everything's going to be great. markets are pricing like everything's going to be great. >> we'll get the view from europe when we speak to the bank of portugal governor mario centenial this hour. and sounds a note of caution on the health of germany's economy. >> we are at a point in time where there are more challenges and changes in availability and global trade and less demand out of china having an impact on the german economy. and an unfriendly attack. german chancellor olof scholz hits at unicredit's move to up its stake in commerzbank to 21%.

we will hear from board member st fir stefan wittman this hour. very good morning this morning. we start with the action with the look at the european equities. the stoxx 600 is trading higher by .80%. this, indeed, as we have two market narratives today. we are all looking at the stimulus measures that china is having an implication of the market moves we are witnessing this morning. on top of that, european investors are digesting weak economics data from the eurozone on monday. we saw services pmi drop on monday and manufacturing pmi

fell into contraction territory. this means the ecb is on track to cut the rates again at the october meeting. we will have a chance to check on the ecb later in the show when we speak to mario. i want to take you to the different bourses to show you the picture in the equities. as you see on the screen, ftse 100 is up .50%. important to monitor the news out of the labour party conference to understand potentially in which direction the next budget on october 30th will actually take us. that could have ramifications for the european markets. on top of that, the dax is trading higher by .80%. more pronounced moves in france with the cac 40 up 1.4%. let's get a check on the different sectors across europe. these are the top gainers at

this moment. look at the significant move with the basic resources. the sector is the best performing at the moment up 4.2%. we are also seeing significant moves with household goods up more than 2%. why? because of this. china's central bank unveiled a range of bigger than expected monetary policy in a bid to boost the struggling economy. the pboc announced a 50-basis point cut and it will cut 20 basis points bringing it to 1.5%. the bank said interest rates on existing mortgages would be reduced by average of 50 basis points. let's dive into the sectorial moves with the names and you think about how important this announcement is. anglo american shares up 6%. rio tinto up 4.5%.

this story is vehhaving implications with the luxury stocks in europe. i highlighted household goods this morning. look at the individual stock names. lvmh up 4.5%. kering up as well. analysis suggesting we are getting closer to the bottom of the luxury cycle. so perhaps more upside in some of the names in the window of three-to-six months according to this one analyst. the announcement from china having significant implications in the equity space. looking at hang seng which closed 4%. shanghai closing at similar levels there. to highlight some officials are looking at the announcement from the chinese central bank and suggesting it was not a big

bazooka, but a step in the right direction. therefore, let's get a check on the property sector because the announcement from the pboc was also very much targeted into some of the issues, really, that we're seeing in the property sector. some of the names we have in this space, china res lamb up 5%. and sunac up 12%. significant as you look at the market moves in asia. asian stocks moved to the highest in the last two and a half years. let's look at wall street. it is suggesting to be a positive start to the trading session on wall street. this after what was a positive session on monday. however, the dow and s&p did post fresh record closes at the end of monday's session. jpmorgan chase ceo jamie dimon

played off the bumper cut when he sat down with our sister channel in india. >> i think they raised rates quickly. they were a little late. they raised it 5. as inflation is 3%, the 5 is too high. they are closer to where it may be. it will continue to exhibit growth with inflation coming down. i'm a little more skeptical than other people about that, but it is happening and they are reflecting reality. >> goldman sachs cfo said the 50-basis point cut from the fed means it has all but achieved a soft landing. >> it is start of the expected con continuum. we have seen that across the capital markets for the year.

the first 50-basis point cut is the clear signal in the new direction and that will unlock confidence and reduce cost of capital and perhaps more strategic activity heading into the end of year as as we move no 2025, improve backlog across markets. >> they managed to achieve a soft landing ? >> that is the consensus. inflation levels are coming down. employment is manageable. they are starting to put through the rate cuts and maintain a soft landing extrtrajectory. >> would you say that the u.s. and the fed is ahead of the curve when it comes to policy making as well as europe? >> i think the different geographies have different characteristics and at different

points in the recovery cycles. each needs to calibrate the characteristics of their own economy. i think there's a shared objective with the soft landing and get back to growth. >> time to look at the latest from germany which has obtained figures from the august ifos business index t.. it came in lower than what analysts were expecting for september. it came in at 85.4 versus 86 analysts were expecting. at the same time, when you think about what we have in the last reading, we had received the reading of 86.6. overall, the message is german business morale is falling and there are concerns within the

german economy itself and important to understand where we are actually feeling the biggest weaknesses at this stage. i'm pleased to say clemens fues, it is fuest is here with us this morning. where is this cweakness coming from? >> good morning. it is coming from the manufacturing sector which is important for the german economy. the chemical industry and machinery. electric appliances, they are all in trouble. the car industry is kind of stabilizing this month, but at a low level. on top of that, we have weak readings from the service sector. that was a sector that was keeping upp better, but now we see weak fwhesnesses here. there are services linked to

logistics which are weak. overall, the situation is quite bad. >> so far, i would like you to dig deeper. pmis we received yesterday were disappointing with the german economy. there are clearly pressures on the german economy. put into context for us how bad is it at the moment? >> what we are seeing is structural pressures. it is the competitiveness of the german companies. they are revising their plans and investing more abroad. what we are seeing is weakness in investment. in investment is lower, significantly lower than before the pandemic around 10% and declining further. this implies companies are investing more in their markets. in the past, germany was very much an export platform and continues to be so, but to a

lesser extent and we see that. as a consequence of that, a lot of investment equipment companies are facing falling orders, a lack of orders. you might expect that consumption might be working against that compensating that because real incomes are rising, but people are not spending the money. the savings rate is increasing and that suggests that consumers are worried about the future. worried about political instability or at least the government that doesn't seem to get its act together and agree on reforms and certainty about future jobs and future income. >> very interesting the point you just raised on political instability. naturally, we had important regional elections in germany. i would like to understand what this data now means for the ecb. because as you you highlighted

there, the ecb will have to cut rates at the october meeting. >> well, i guess it makes it more likely. germany here is an out lier in the negligative sessnse. it will take away pressure from inflation, but will that also hold for the euro area as a whole? the ecb is concerned about sticky inflation, so it's a balancing act for the ecb, but clearly today's data suggests that an interest cut becomes more likely. >> interesting. let's also look at the banking sector. i just would like to understand whether the news that unicredit is looking to have a more significant stake in commerzbank. is that ultimately good or bad news for german businesses?

>> well, i guess it does suggest some weakness from the german banking sector, so there has been con solidation among the bg commercial private banks for some time now and the takeover does suggest that foreign banks are stronger and expecting. overall, this is not a bad sign. what we want really is more integration in european banking markets and why shouldn't an italian bank take over a german bank? that is okay. there should be competition among banks, but there is still a significant number of banks active. >> i'm sorry for interrupting, but i have to ask you why are we, therefore, hearing the chancellor olof scholz saying they are not welcoming this unfriendly attack? >> i think olof scholz is under

pressure from unions, of course, the employees are concerned about job cuts. there will be synergies between the banks and it makes sense otherwise there would be duplications of functions. the functions will disappear and be consolidated. the union employees don't like that. olof scholz should bear in mind that, yes, we want an open european market and banking consolidation should be part of it. >> very interesting. thank you for share your thoughts with us. we'll have more on the state of the german when later this hour. annette will speak to the ceo of goldman sachs at 9:30 british summertime. we'll also get the view from the ecb when we hear from the bank of portugal governor and ecb board member mario centeno at

9:45 british summertime. coming up, we are day three from the conference. we will have the latest from liverpool after this break.

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welcome back to the show. let's look at the uk economy. the chancellor rachel reeves says the budget will provide economic growth. she described a 22 billion pound black hole left by the previous government and this would help boost investment. >> when active government is called for, this government will act and conference, it is time that the treasury moved on from just counting the cost of investment to recognizing the benefits too. we are calling on time from the past. calling time on the days when the government stood back and

left to defend for themselves. the era of trickle down economics is over. >> we have arabile gumede at the conference. arabile, the chancellor said she would not describe tackling the 22 billion pound black hole, but also saying no austerity. how is she going to do this? >> reporter: that's the big question mark, silvia. trying to balance the wittwo is difficult task. growth is a problem and investment is the solution. that's the word from rachel reeves, the chancellor who spoke yesterday. i'm lucky enough to be joined by the research director and joins us now. greg, thank you for the time. i appreciate it. the conversation around growth is very important. trying to get the uk to grow is going to leave you a lot more hard work. have you seen the hard work and

commentary that leads to the hard work this government is speaking about to get that growth? >> i think it is a good start, but it has a mountain to climb. if we step back, the uk economy has not grown quickly at all since 2008. we're in the middle of the g7. most of that from higher population growth and people into the work force. our productivity performance has been bad. we have had a good 2024, but a long way to get the economy growing. what they need to do is get people investing again and businesses and people in government make it easier to build things. we have seen early signs of that. >> that means you need to change regulation or the investment platforms or how easy it is to do business in the uk. are those the conversations being had? >> yes, that's right. one thing that would make it easy to do business in the uk not leave the european union. government ruled that out.

they ruled out the customs u union. that sis a political judgment. the sky is not going to fall in. we will be a prosperous country, but not as much as in the eu. they ruled out the main tax rises and national insurance and vat. those are the things you want to do to raise money for the public services. they imposed quite service constraints and having to do the best they can within the constraints. >> anything they achieve from here is granular or minute. does that mean it is difficult to obtain larger growth from or is this the solid base to start? >> i think there's lots of things the government can do. for example, making it easier to build housing and infrastructure in the uk. that's a big change. they've announced, especially with housing, where the housing's going to be is super

important. if you put it where the best jobs are, that will make the economy grow faster. they have small measures on trade and announced measures on infrastructure. these things will take years to execute. they're very detailed requiring local oppositions with interests and that will not happen overnight. it is difficult to make a conference splash because it is not spending money. it's not the sexy part of politics, but what the government needs to do now to get the economy growing faster. >> we have recently talked about the doom and gloom they offered forward and said we are not going back to austerity for example. you do have to cut back in places. investment is key part of this, but it's a lot of cutting back. is the cutting back sufficient for growth? >> we had lots of key cuts in the last 14 years.

you see that in operations or waiting for doctors. there are pot holes in the you can uk. it is going to be difficult for them to make more cuts. that being said, it will be difficult for them to raise taxes because they ruled out most of the big ones. i think they will find money in the budget next month, but that's the big thing. rachel reeves did not give us much in the speech yesterday. she did say she wanted the treasury to recognize the benefits of spending as well as the costs. that might give us a hint they changed the fiscal rules slightly. >> how does that work now? i think that's very important. does that mean it creates space for you to get more debt which gets the government into a lot more trouble at a later stage or changing the rules to get more income which actually is a better source for the government? >> i think it's both actually. at the moment, the rule is the

government debt has to be falling as a share of the economy in the fifth year of the forecast and it doesn't really matter in terms of the fiscal rule. why the government is accruing that debt. they might change that to say if you are going into debt because you just built hospital or social housing, that's okay. the problem is those things have to generate revenue because you have a higher interest bill to cover the debt. interest rates have risen around the world and that caused problems for the uk government because of the way the uk government finances itself. >> as the bank of university wo england would want? >> we have gone from zero interest rates to 5.5. the government is heavily exposed to that with the quantitative easing. the bank of england is basically financing all of these bonds that it holds now at 5% and it

bought them at 0.52%. that is also costing the governments in europe and u.s., but they count for it differently. it happens sooner in the uk. >> it hits us long term. they want long term plans for it. greg, thank you for the time. we hope to see the fruits of the labor, so to speak, as well from the party here. so, this is the conversation being had. how do you get growth going and what elements do you change and how do you make the changes now to get the long-term growth happening? silvia, an interesting conversation. back to you. >> no doubt. we will monitor the speech from the prime minister. he will speak later today in the conference. coming up on the show, we'll be crossing live to annette at the german conference in munich request the conversation with the goldman sachs ceo. that conversation is coming up next.

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welcome back to "street signs." i'm silvia amaro and here are your headlines.

china unleashes stimulus helps you measures sending asian equities to a two and a half year high. fed officials temper expectations for a jumbo rate cut as jamie dimon tells cnbc there's still reason to be cautious. >> long-term optimists. everything's going to be great. markets are pricing things like they're going to be great. i'm in the cautious side. >> we'll get the view from europe and the ecb when we speak to the bank of portugal governor mario centeno this hour. and sent the sours on the health of europe's largest economy. >> changes in availability and global trade. less demand out of china all

having an impact on the german economy. unfriendly attack. german chancellor olof scholz hits at unicredit's move for a stake in commerzbank up to 20%. we will hear from board member stefan wittmann this hour. let's look at germany. the economy has been stalling and has been the focus, really, of attention at this year's german corporate conference in munich. the goldman sachs cfo told scnb the country should leverage. >> my conversation with the sector was a mixed sentiment. some of the headwinds that um p impacted on the economy with

prices coming down. there has been structural improvement. there are opportunities to leverage the strength of the german fiscal balance sheet and make investments to support structural revolution within the economy. the growth has been subdued and some call for pessimism, but structural change on the way. we have seen this evolution over time in germany. >> let's get out to annette at the corporate conference. she's joined by a special guest. annette. >> reporter: i'm joined by wolfgang fink, ceo of goldman sachs europe. it seems like a critical point in time with the conference in munich. how is the mood of the people on the ground and the cfos you're talking to?

>> obviously, we're going through challenging times. we're faced with headwinds that are basically well documented on the one hand. on the other hand, we have over 170 corporates at the conference here and quite focused on the near-term challenges and also the long-term potentials. the companies have a strong base and usually strong technology and focused on getting through currently what looks like a soft environment and are focused on adjusting this environment. clearly, i would also see the long-term opportunities that present itself. >> so, what's the positive of the business case for the german economy because before we were proud of the automotive sector and proud of our technology. many of these easy equations don't seem to work anymore.

>> we have to see, as i said, the short-term challenges. on the other hand, there is still a lot of technology that these companies and actors can draw on a lot of innovation potential. now it is about adaption to change market and market to change technology and how quickly that can be done. i would say it's an opportunity for those who are ready to deal with the circumstances, but clearly, you will see more adoption and more changing of footprints and the like as you go. if you are an investor and convinced of the story, it is an opportunity to look at the opportunity and to step in if you are convinced this is a value case going forward. >> at goldman, you commit more resources to germany by opening up an office in munich. why have you decided to do so and what makes that make the

area so attractive? >> we have been in germany for more than 35 years. we have always believed in the long-term potential of the country. munich is a twofold strategy. we are happy to be on the ground here with an office of around 30 people. on the one hand, we believe in the technology cluster and breadth and depth of the companies and cliengts here. on the one hand, it is a lot of startup with corporates and community and private wealth and wealthy clients. a lot of broader opportunities for us. it is twofold with the strengthening of our footprint in germany and the european story. munich is a hub for the business and it presents itself very well as such. >> let's talk about the european technology story. of course, there's a big aim for

being sovereign when it comes to technology here and also in the euro area and in europe. how credible is that given the dominance of u.s. players in that field? >> we also hear from investors, but also from specialists in the respective sectors that we have great technology in europe. great startups. lots of ideas coming from premier universities and academic research institutions. it's then about getting that technology to the market and i think in the first stage, we have now seen a more vibrant ecosystems of startups and venture capitalists. it's very important as we hit soft patches in the technologies that we are able to finance them through the cycle. i think here you have a big difference to the u.s. the u.s. takes those technologies and develops them to market very swiftly with an ecosystem. that is a certain risk here in

europe. we hope with our activities and international investors, we can allow that process to function for seamlessly. from the fundamentals, we have an equal starting system compared to u.s. and in europe and here in germany. >> when it comes to the german economy, there are certain clusters that we call them, one is the university in munich and perhaps we can call it a start-up center, very much pushing for innovation. how cutting edge do you think are those innovations we're seeing here? are we competitive? >> i think from what i see we certainly are. you mentioned a great example. what we need to do in europe and in germany, we need to scale those efforts. if you had five or even ten in

germany, we would have a similar ecosystem or comparable to the u.s. to merger these investments is key to ink incubate them in a . i believe we have an equal starting point. it is just about developing. >> let's also talk about the market. of course, you are advising many german corporates on m&a and corporate action. we have seen some big deals recently looming. how do you see, like, the will to do the transactions currently? >> i will say we have seen a slower environment here in germany. we see a pick up. the pickup is twofold. one is the corporates that continue to drive their strategies and i think the current environment that you and i have heard a lot about here in

this conference is, in my view, an accelerator for m&a and corporate m&a on funding and projects that need a partner to be financed. focusing and leaving some projects to be sold and pursued. corporate activity is my view is very active. on the private equity side which has been slow, but we are seeing picking up. there's enough capital on the equity and on the debt side. there is clearly the ability to do deals and opportunities. there is sometimes a mismatch with the pricing on both sides. as that sort of normalizes, we see more private equity as well. we are actually quite positive into the second half of 2024 and first half of 2025 and we will

see more m&a. >> how do the political tensions tie into this? clearly, germany is open and geared toward activity in china. >> we are a polarized world. we see the china supply chains and china as a market. we shouldn't forget this is the long-term process. we will not solve them overnight. you see the select tengagement and focus. it takes time to readjust the situation which has been building for 20 plus years. there's clearly momentum in that direction given all of the concerns and corporate decision makers have to weigh this conflict and resilience. so, there's clearly momentum, but it will take time as i said. >> thank you for your time. with that, i'm accsending it ba

to you. that is also a wrap from the conference in munich. >> thank you for the coverage, annette. coming up on the show, we will speak to mario centeno with the recent rate t cuand the big move from the fed. that conversation is coming up after this break.

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welcome back to the show. we have further news in the unicredit-commerzbank story. this time, german chancellor olof scholz is criticizing the move to raise its stake in the german lender to around 21% as quote, an unfriendly attack. commerzbank shareses bes bounce the move before moving stharply lower. the commerzbank board member

stefan wittmann laid out the objectives to cnbc. >> translator: we regard them as critical if politicaluphevals. they would be if you like the domino effect. second, we have always spoken out including as employee representatives on the board that they could be measures on the european level. only when the banking is in place. we create the rules of the game and the guardrails first. to do it sensibly when it's clear which playing field we're on. >> we'll continue to monitor the developments in this potential takeover. ahead of the open on wall

street, here are the four things to look out for today. the economic calendar is thin, but we'll get new consumer confidence figures and the fed survey at 3:00 p.m. british summertime. u.s. president biden will address the united nations general assembly and we will hear from michelle bowman who will be speaking later today. > we have the governor for the bank of portugal and member of the ecb governing council. good to have you with us on the show. first and foremost, i would like to understand your thoughts on the latest economic data in the eurozone. the pmi was very disappointing. on top of that, the odds we're going to see another rate cut increased in terms of what markets are pricing in. is it safe to assume the ecb

will cut rates again in october? >> thank you for having me, silvia. we have been following the data since the beginning of the inflationary process. inflation is converging to 2%. it is pretty close. we have more to do certainly. other than commenting on the expectations of the market, let me bring a couple of numbers that you rightly pointed out that came after the meeting in these months. wage dprgrowth for the second quarter came in below our expectations. on the basis of the revised figure for the first quarter, we have 4.5% wage growth in the second quarter. we expect these figures to go

down sharply in 2025 and these are good news for inflation and for our goal to bring it to the target. the numbers of the labor market see already some easing in europe. most of the numbers for the second quarter, we see recent job starters below 10% the number that we had at the beginning of 2022. this is a very significant reduction in the dynamics of the labor market. the vacancy rate is 20% also down from that moment. >> governor, excuse me. i'm sorry to interrupt. i would like to understand what you are saying thus far. does it mean you are more focused now on the dynamics within the labor market rather than the inflation print?

>> we have to take it together. we do know that the mandate is inflation and we are focused on bringing inflation to 2%, but we don't want to undershoot on the target. very early signs of the labor market weakening are already being shown in data for the euro area. the labor market was a big pillar of is bustability for th economy. this has a lot to do with the labor market conditions. so an easing in labor market conditions can signal further deterioration of the economic conditions and that's something that we also want to avoid. >> governor, i would like to understand whether you are actually concerned about the data coming from the eurozone.

>> well, it's a bit of the following sentiment. we have been postponing the recovery. there's no recession in the bas baseline. the baseline is still very solid, but we see as months after months, a postponement of the recovery. remember that we cut the forecast of investment in the euro area in the two years in 2024-2025 by 80%. this is a big cut in investment and we will not have growth if investment doesn't show some help. you need to take this seriously. you mentioned the pmis. we saw the sharpest deterioration of confidence in the last 15 months. the same numbers show that job

shedding is now really in the expectations. we need to be careful with that. >> we need to be careful. that's a very clear message, governor. so, what does that mean in terms of rate cuts between now and the end of the year? how many do you think the ecb needs to do? >> well, you know, we are firmly data dependent. we need to collect all this information. there's still more to come until the october meeting. i think we need to continue doing our job. we have been quite successful so far and that's what i expect in the future. in terms of the number of cuts, we need really to go meeting by meeting. we have input cost inflation slow to the lowest since

november of 2020. auto prices increased and also lowest since february of 2021. china is a big factor in terms of the inflationary process because all the pressure is comg from china is inflationary. so, we need to count on these dynamics in terms of prices. so, i think we really need to be focused on the data and on the interplay and data with what we already know and keep updating ourselves. >> there's a lot on the table to monitor. governor, i would like to shift focus and look at the banking news that we are monitoring across the eurozone. the president of the ecb, christine lagarde, has suggested that she would welcome further consolidation in the european banking sector. do you share that view in the context of unicredit increasing its stake in commerzbank?

>> well, i'm not going to comment on that specific situation. sorry for that. let me give you my view on the banking union construction. we are working very hard for more than ten years now in setting up a true banking union. that, of course, includes cross border consolidation and things that also must be derived by the market. i think that's my view. so, we need really to propose in europe very strong results on that front. the banking sector in europe is strong. the numbers we have has been resilient through the crisis, the pandemic and inflationary

crisis. this time in europe, we will be better and different. that's my point. >> governor, i understand and i hear what you are saying, however, we have been looking at this for many years. i've had the chance to follow your work for almost a decade now. when we talk about mergers in europe and consolidation in the banking sector, this is a wish you and your colleagues have had for many years. yet, you hear the chancellor of germany saying this is an unfriendly attack. are you ffrustrated by the comm from the politicians in germany or spain with the further consolidation of the banking sector? >> we have been working very hard to bring banking in europe to completion. there are still some issues on the table that we all know. specifically, sensitive to this specific case is developing

right now. so, sorry, silvia, i will not make a comment on that. i will continue my pledge on completing the banking union. >> it's not -- governor, it's not a comment on unicredit-commerzbank bank, but what officials are saying thus far. their narrative does not match the actions and comments from other officials across the eurozone. is there a mismatch? are politicians basically lacking willingness to do ahead with the banking union? >> you know, politicians, as much as all decisionmakers sometimes make comments on top of the hour. and i think that's something we need to understand on the one hand, but to work through them and continue doing our job. >> right. very clear. we appreciate how generous you were with your time today.

mario centeno. as we approach the end of the show, let's get a check of the equity session so far in europe. we are seeing green across the board. we have more pronounced moves to the upside over in france with the cac 40 up 1.5% this after weak economic data on monday has pushed the odds for further rate cuts from the ecb. i also want to briefly look at u.s. futures in terms of economic data out of the united states, we will see consumer confidence figures. these will be relevant in terms of understanding what the fed is likely to do before the end of the year. i'm afraid that's it for "street signs" today. i'm silvia amaro. stay with cnbc. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. welcome to "worldwide exchange." here is your "five@5." hear what jamie dimon tells cnbc about the fed and soft landing. chinese stocks have their before the day in years after a new wave of support for that struggling economy. proposal rejected. calling th