step we've been waiting for them to respond the u.s.'s interest rate cut clearly shows stimulus is back on the table they better be ready to do two or three other rounds. >> two or three other rounds, wow. thanks for your time we appreciate it. >> they're playing our song. that means we have to get out of here that's it for "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. guys, thanks so much welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner from the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the dow and s&p heading for more milestones in the closing stretch. 6 0 minutes to go in regulation. the dow is a touch negative but it's been up for most of the day. here's the s&p a new record high at close, too. nasdaq up half a percent industrials and tech are leading the way as china announces more stimulus measures. we're following that and that is gifting a lift to names like freeport, caterpillar. a whole host of china-based internet companies, too. they are having a pretty good

day like alibaba up 8% jd up more than 13%. it's been a mixed day for mega caps overall microsoft, meta, amazon have been lower there's your picture for those names. the other side, apple, nvidia, alphabet they have been staying green the talk of the tape, where to find opportunities within this bull market. let's ask our panel the very question lauren goodwin of new york life investment, kristina goodman welcome. you're still defensively positioned you said probably sell the first rate cut we got the first cut why are you defensively positioned we've been hitting new highs >> you wrote this week, there's nothing worse than being a consensus bear and being wrong it's the worst thing you can do. everyone is cautious coming in september. instead of it being a self-fulfilling prophecy, it's wrong. you know, there's some new news. this china stimulus is a

positive generally when they do stuff, it helps energy, materials and industrials. that's incremental from maybe a few days ago but i just -- i'm trying to take a step back and say, what do i believe is like a reasonable scenario for the economy and corporate earnings, can i stretch it to get 300 bucks in 2026 earnings for the s&p, should i pay 20 times that that gets me about 6,000 okay, i can see like, you know, i'm paid 20 times 2026 earnings now in a slowing economy, will it begin to stimulate? maybe. it's hard for me to walk in and say i think there's 10%, 15% upside justifiably so i feel i can pick stocks in this environment more than i feel like i want to just chase, you know, what's been a massive rally. >> do you think statistically earnings tend to do better in a lower rate environment do stock prices tend to do better in a lower rate environment? >> it's more the latter where, you know -- >> i'm asking you that because

you have a ph.d. in statistics i'm playing around with you a little bit >> i wrotethere's a 90% chance earnings come lower and 50% chance the market -- i know earnings estimates are too high for q4 i thought fedex and maybe we'll see, there are some bellwethers starting to show some squishiness. on the other hand, i'm less confident we won't have more multiple expansion because there are things i can dream about that could cause margin expansion, particularly around productivity, a.i. deployment, et cetera. >> are we seeing that? >> we are. and i think you'll see more of it i think what's in the price now is a pretty healthy rebound in the 2025 earnings. and continued growth into 2026 and paying a pretty chunky multiple on that 2026. i think it's possible. i'm not saying, hey, short stop but as we've been saying, i don't know if we can believe 10% upside is more likely 10% downside until i get on more confident on how much the consumer is slowing. there's no question the consumer is slowing >> let's just take it, lauren, base level

let's go back to the beginning of when the fed does -- '09 we learned from '09, don't fight the fed, right somebody came up with that at some point, and it's worked on both sides they start hiking, stocks fell sharply. they start cutting, aren't stocks supposed to continue to rise isn't this a boost to stocks that's what they say are they right >> i think in this circumstance they're right for now. but the reality is that it's still all about growth where stocks go next it's actually true for profit margins as well. when the fed is cutting historically, profit margins stay about where they are. earnings stay about where they are until growth slows so, that's an environment where the equity market can continue charging higher. but it's -- it's difficult to see the real economic catalyst that get us real upstart in growth without inflation that the market would be happy about. so, i'm a buyer of this rally until unemployment claims start rising, until earnings start declining, really until growth's

a problem. i think we're going to see a really volatile market between those growth and slowdown narratives until that time >> we are trying to, kristina, make investment decisions, in some respects based on historical precedent you've heard some of the commentary here and elsewhere. when the fed starts cutting interest rates, it typically does this or back in 1990, whatever, this is what happened when the fed was cutting interest rates i know you step into a big pile of, you know what, when you try to suggest that this is different this time. has the fed ever started cutting interest rates at a time when the economy was as reasonably good as it appears to be today >> it is hard to find a place in modern times where this has happened. >> a crisis cut in a noncrisis environment, absolutely. it's unheard of. i think we have to recognize the fed is cutting into growth

now, we are going to see a slowdown, but i think it's going to be very, very brief and that we're going to see a reacceleration not only do we have 50 basis points already, but we're looking out on 50 more this year and significantly more next year if we listen to some of the fmoc members, we can expect more and more cuts. this is an environment, i think, where we're throwing a lot of jet fuel behind stocks it doesn't mean that we're going to see the stock market go crazy, but i do think, especially those areas that haven't had as big a rally, especially the cyclicals where there is an expectation if the economy does reaccelerate, they'll perform well we'll see that what happens today in terms of the china announcement is only helping that. >> i want to go back to that it's a good analogy. we've been having this conversation as to whether the fed is going to be able to land the plane safely or not. kristina's point is they just

refueled midflight, right? just said added jet fuel to stocks like they got one of those planes go up rick rieder said forget soft landing. looks like no landing. the economy is going to keep budsing along here >> i hate the '09 analogy because what was different, you had massive incremental fiscal stimulus, and they cut the front end. maybe there's a little fuel but that was like -- that was an offshore discovery that's a lot different so, the china thing i think is new and positive i think it is positive for cyclicals. no doubt that's new information you have to react to new information. i think that does help the rules, i agree i don't think it's the same as getting incremental massive fiscal stimulus and expanding the balance sheet. and i know that when you say

don't fight the fed, and espouse that thing a billion times, so i'm partially responsible for that as well, but its different when it's the front end and not just balance sheet >> central banks around the world are loosening policy now we just had one of the largest economies on planet earth say they're going to do that as well we already know they're go to the nth degree. >> i would have bought chinese value stocks two months ago. you know, my challenge -- again, i'm just trying to create a little perspective i do think when -- if you look every wednesday when the fed reports, the change in the balance sheet is significantly correlated to the week-to-week change in the s&p. if they're going to do a bunch of balance sheet expansion, yeah, i'll be bullish. >> but what about -- >> what business is all of a sudden better because it's 50

bips lower i don't know i think it's a little early. i still think the stock market is pretty far ahead of the fed >> let's say the fed is pulling a little liquidity out of the market but investors continue to put liquidity into the market. this was a note today from bank of america largest inflows, the third largest ever last week, since they started secollecting data. that's the don't fight the fed crowd, which has been sitting elsewhere. now, that's what they told me to do don't fight the fed. i'm going in >> i completely agree with the idea that for the real economy, the 50 basis points, at a restrictive policy level, that's not the type of juice that completely re-engineers the cycle. even a 50-basis-point cut is 50 basis points off a cash rate investors are going to wake up in a year and realize they don't have the same income generation opportunities they had even just a couple of weeks ago. i think we'll continue to see flows into the market,

especially -- we've been talking about equity, but especially into the bond market locking in rates even at the levels where they are now is a significantly more attractive opportunity than what it might look like in a few quarters. >> i'm glad you said that. it's the kind of conversation i had with rick rieder right on this set listen to what he told me, we can react on the other side because it plays to that very thought, where is the money going to go and work best? listen >> markets are crowded in a bunch of places. look what happened to semis. markets get extremely crowded these days i just think you have to be sensitive. fixed income i tend to diversify it i like to concentrate my equities a bit more. but i think you got to be a bit more careful because crowding in markets is severe. >> his point, and he's been making this point for long before the fed actually cut rates, it's a golden age, his word, in fixed income.

he likes stocks. of course he's going to say that, he's the cio for fixed income for world's largest asset manager. he made it clear, he likes stocks but he thinks bonds right now, credit's better. >> i have to agree with that opportunity set. it has to do with not only where the market is right now but what the trajectory looks like and the opportunity investors have for the next several quarters. removing -- first of all, moving from cash into bonds is a no-brainer reinvestment risk is an investor's worst nightmare we particularly like the short duration part of corporate credit, investment, high yield or municipal curve because that's an opportunity where the maturity looks good, buying and holding for a couple of years, managing that income generation opportunity, locking in higher yield makes a lot of sense >> equities in fixed income are not mutually exclusive cash will come off the side lines, go into fixed income and some will go into equities perhaps some areas of equity

that haven't been performing as well in recent years i think we'll see more going into international equities, more going into value side and small daps, as well as a lot of great opportunities in fixed income i agree. muni, investment grade, high yield all look attractive right now. >> investing rule number one, don't fight the tape investing rule number six, thank you, john, for spending this to me, don't fight the fed. that's where it comes from. >> that's why you get big retail net worths piling in after the market's ripped and at an all-time high. it used to be, when do people pile in from the retail? it's after a rip it's not like i'm a spring chicken, i've been doing this for a long time. you jam all the slowest moving guys to the top. i'm not super beared up. i think the risk/reward -- what i just heard is buy everything let's buy international, buy

small, buy small, large, value, credit maybe. maybe. or maybe what's happening -- >> who said buy everything >> we like a bunch of things. >> the two of you, 90% of liquid assets in the world -- >> this is not 2022. you saw the opposite phenomenon where very little looked good. >> you're right. i'm not disagreeing, if it's risk-on trade that will be right. i'm a little more worried that the consumer's slowing, we will see some pretty big misses and guide downs in q4 and that volatility point, you could be right. i just think it's hard for me to think the fed's going to cut, let's call it, 1.5% more on the front end without deteriorating economy that hurts or causes a growth scare. >> what about the debate we've had, kristina, we've had it almost every time you've been on

because you've been advocating for small cap stocks long before the fed actually cut rates fed cut rates and they did a jumbo cut and the russell really hasn't done anything why? >> it's coming so, i think there's still a lot of nervousness and apprehension about what is going to happen with this economy. to adam's points, there are some signs that suggest that the economy is slowing i do believe that there will be outsized reactions to economic data points that at all negative going forward. we should see a slowdown but i think there's a quick reacceleration to follow i think small caps will discount that in advance. we just haven't gotten there yet but i think it will happen sooner rather than later. >> what do you think >> i think i'm the goldilocks for once in this panel i'm not bearish or bullish i'm somewhere in the middle. i do anticipate that, look, there are risks to the economy out there. when i balance what those risks look like to the downside and

upside, i think we might see growth that slows maybe a smidge but doesn't really go anywhere from here for a year if profit margins don't reaccelerate, inflation doesn't reaccelerate, that's a really quite good economic environment. it's an environment where maybe stocks don't do a whole lot, right? >> what gives you confidence in the acceleration it's possible. i'm just curious, what do you -- >> especially acceleration without tightening. >> everything is possible. everything i say could be wrong. it's interesting to me that you have some confidence in acceleration what are you looking at -- >> we have a really resilient consumer. >> in the economy are you talking about? >> yeah, in the earnings sorry to do your job for you got excited about it. >> if i had a problem, i would have told you to stop. >> i think we have a resilient consumer, especially on the higher end the question becomes, how much pressure spreads from lo-- midd income consumers to lower income

consumers. we have a low unemployment rate, relative to history. if it goes up significantly, that's a different story if we can nip this in the bud and we can see really some kind of very modest slowdown followed by reacceleration, i think the catalyst would be the election what we see in the federal reserve beige book and consumer sentiment surveys is that is stopping people from buying and it's stopping companies from hiring >> the consumer confidence today had the biggest decline since august of '21. i think it was the fed chair on fed day who referenced the beige book as one of the reasons or part of the debate that happened in the room. where it all decided on 50 he mentioned the weakness was in the beige book. >> it could be caused by this political issue that could be resolved on november 5th. >> i agree assuming we know what happens in the election within some reasonable time frame of that day, i think that could at least

be - >> weak? >> yeah, could be some uncertainty. i think that could be a catalyst i sit here six weeks before that thinking, i'm going to get a lot of guide downs you know, like fedex went down a lot when it missed it wasn't like -- i'd have a different attitude if a company missed and it stayed flat. then i would think, okay, idiot, train left the station, what am i doing? i'm a little more mixed about will the stocks act well between that if you're right that the numbers -- the numbers do accelerate the second half of '25. >> i'm like tortured about how much they have to come down. >> what happens if mega cap tech continues to take a bit of a back seat, doesn't keep hitting the gas really hard, is that a problem? >> yeah, i think it's a problem. i guess in a framework where you're more bullish you say they're up 10 and everybody else is up 10, 25, economic

acceleration, more stimulus from china, all that, it's a risk-on trade, they outperform i don't think anybody has got a problem with that. >> are you worried about semis right now? they haven't traded well at all. >> i think that in the medium term it's wildly bullish i think in the next october, november guidance season, it's hard for people to see the proof cases from hyperscalers. >> did you say mildly or wildly? >> wildly. i'm still bullish -- >> on semis? >> yes >> how can you be cautious on -- >> you know right now gross margin speaking for nvidia, we've been writing for 25 years that you buy semis until the margins beat i think on the other side of that, this is a new world, semis grew gdp plus two for 20 years now it's gdp plus seven or eight. multiples will be much higher

than in the past i think have you to get through this challenge of hyperscale other spending on the other side of it when you see cases of companies being prod productive, you'll get back to trading those things it's not like nvidia is acting that bad i think it will be way higher in two or three years. >> what about this idea of mega caps, if they continue to take up -- a bit of a backseat, is that okay? >> i think it can be okay. if mega caps are taking a backseat and the economy is holding up and the market can digest that backseat, that's actually constructive when it comes to the balance of equity valuations the way i see the next 12 months potentially unfoldingis if we don't have a major downside, there's not really necessarily a huge catalyst for reacceleration either if the economy stays about where it is at or a little below trend, valuations are high across the board that's an opportunity where investors really need to focus on how they can generate income.

that's where we're focused, especially pre-election, the one thing i feel highly confident about. >>. >> last point to you do you want to wrap it up? >> absolutely. i think it's important to be diversified. i think it's important to think about alternate scenarios. i think that's why there's a lot of excitement about gold but i believe strongly we'll see a reacceleration and investors need to be positioned for that consumer discretionary stocks have been performing well and i think that's telling us something. i think we will see a revival of the consumer. >> that's hard to -- amazon, tesla is now positive on the year those have such a higher weighting in discretionaries. >> i think these guys cross assets so they know more about stuff. i talk equity pms and i think i'm in the hurt locker of earnings season coming up and trying to pick winners from losers we may not be that far apart. >> we'll leave it there. thank you very much. we'll see you again soon we're getting big news out of boeing. phil lebeau has that for us.

>> scott, take a look at shares of boeing. one day after the company said that it was making its best and final offer to the machinist union and that there needed to be an approval for that contract to go through by midnight pacific time on friday night, now boeing has said we talked with the union and we're going to give them a little more time. there's no longer a deadline there. remember, the machinists came out after that proposal from boeing, scott, and said, we're not even presenting this to the members. you don't tell us when we have to vote by we will do it once we've negotiated an agreement we believe in so, as a result, boeing has come out today and said, we think that everybody should have more time, so we've reached out to the union to give them more time no deadline is the bottom line here, scott. they still have their best and final offer out there. let's see if it truly is the best and final offer or if there are more to come >> yes, we will. phil, thanks for the update. that's phil lebeau. now to seema mody. >> 38 minutes left in trade.

visa falling after the doj filed an antitrust lawsuit against the credit card giant focused on its debt card business the doj citing 60% of u.s. debit transactions run on visa's network as part of that suit adding even these numbers underestimate visa's monopoly over debit transactions. visa declined to comment. regeneron dipping after a bearish call from analysts that learing, who downgraded the stock to outperform after they lost a bid in u.s. district court to block amgen's blockbuster eye disease drug the stock is one of the worst performers on the day, down 5%, scott. >> seema, appreciate it. seema mody we're just getting started up next, chris verrone is looking at the charts. he'll reveal the parts of the market he sees breaking out next we're live at the new york stock exchange you're wchg loatin"csing bell"

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shares are up over 3% on caterpillar. industrials outperforming. joining me at post 9, chris verrone. >> good to be here >> i disagree. i think this is quietly been the leadership sector for two years. if you go back to when the relative term began, it was summer of 2022 we've had two years of industrial leadership preceding what i think is the next tailwind, maybe a hint of stimulus from china. if if you think about industrials in context of the soft landing talk we hear, one of the things that push back on is the question, do you think we'll have a soft landing? i would say industrials have been telling us for 18 months, we've been in a soft landing will it persist? >> that's fair >> if you're going to change or deviate from the status quo, wouldn't it involve the most consistent group over that time

weakening? >> unless it's to come >> certainly >> whatever is going to happen with the economy as some suggested is still to happen, actually does. >> i thought what was notable last week, if you look at the new high data, what sector had the largest expansion in new highs industrials? look at caterpillar, cummins, carrier, and if you look within industrials, there's the more defensive names like waste management, republic services weakening. there is a pro cyclical tone continuing to come from the sector until it changes, i'm inclined to believe this is the leadership fabric of this market. >> you sound bullish. >> i'm bullish on industrials. >> if you're bullish on industrials, are you not bullish on the overall market? >> i think you have to be. >> that's my point. >> what's the most important piece of information the last week new s&p high what's the second most important? >> 50 basis points. >> sure. but reinforced by industrials pretty good. financials act okay.

discretionary outperforming staples until what i think those tenets of soft landing have been for 18 months. until they change, until banks break down, industrials roll, i think you have to maintain the status quo here. >> the interesting thing has been the movement in gold, which we've been talking about for a while because it's been trading around record highs. i asked jeffrey last week. listen to what he said and we can talk on the other side. >> i continue to hold gold and i would dollar cost average into these prices somewhere close to the highs of all time. the setbacks are very small. it's symptomatic of a market that is accumulation mode. i think the path of least resistance for gold continues to be up. >> what's verrone perspective? >> we share a similar view i think if people looked back over the last 18 months, the big

nvidia quarter, 2023, they would be shocked to know gold and the qqqs have given you the exact same return. concurrent with this big tech story that's an equally compelling story from the precious metals. what is timely is silver is starting to wake up. if you look at miners or junior miners, big breakouts from very long bear market i think this turn in gold, which has been the case for the last 18 months continues. i think the status quo continues. if there's one thing i might be mindful in the near term, some sentiment the last week or two is getting a little on the hotter side. if you got a pullback 2450, 2400, i'd be a buyer there. >> what's going on with rates? it was noticeable if the fed makes its move and rates went up, and higher now than they were before the fed made its move, where are they going from here >> in some places. we've seen 10s and 30s bounce in yield. 2s are on the lows. >> i'm talking about 10s and 30s. >> i think we should

that's the more important part of the curve if yields are going to send a message that the dmi is about to weaken, i would expect you to see that from the 30-year yield. draw a line at the 30-year yield at 390 you begin to undercut that, i begin to question the soft landing narrative is intact. you pointed out, look at the european yields. they're on the lows and in many cases undercutting the lows. german 10s, german 2s in particular that's where i think our attention would have to turn for more imminent risk >> 57 and change on the s&p. highest target on the street right now is 61. we got a lot of things still ahead of us. data, obviously the election what seems reasonable? >> 5600 seems reasonableal that was the range we were in for the last three months. the index chopped from mid-july to last week. >> another 500 points? >> i don't think it's unre unrealistic. how do you get there you still have to have bigger stocks involved. they don't need to be

leadership i think they might be seeding leadership but you can't have them going down. >> you can still get that amount of gain out of the s&p without having those mega cap tech stocks be the leaders? >> i think absolutely. there's a difference between leadership and going up as a laggard or market performer. i think they're transitioning more into the latter meta, new high netflix trades great, quietly. they dropped it from the famed acronym and went to mag 7 and the chart looks still pretty good here. >> we'll leave it there. chris, thank you up next, ceo of novo nordisk on capitol hill, the big debate over weight loss drug prices kicking into high year michelle ross is back, talking about health care stocks on the move

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. fight over drug prices heating up on capitol hill as ceo of novo nordisk faced harsh criticism from lawmakers over the cost of ozempic and wegovy. >> the out yarageously high cosf ozempic, whegovy is related to the cruel and dysfunctional health care system in our company. huge profits for insurance companies and huge profits from

pbms >> joining us now, stempoint capital cme and novo nordisk hol holder, michelle ross. what do you make of the calls and what do you think it means for the stock? >> let's start by saying what happened today isn't anything new. we've heard these arguments before it's very valid. i think that clearly it deserves a new market that's coming together and forming with the glp-1s and what they mean for that system is troubling to many i think you can't just have one group up there talking about this and the the inefficiencies. senator sanders called out the pbms as well if you look at the dollars that make their way into the drugmakers' pockets, as he said, it's actually a lot less than many americans would believe if they just saw these off the cuff so, it's really something that i

think needs to be understood from a multitude of angles as well as the preventive measure these drugs will be filling in and the downstream effect of savings is going to come at the later stages. >> siisn't it inevitable that te prices for these drugs is going to come down, prices are going to come down >> yes >> what's the impact then going to be for earnings on stocks like this? >> exactly a couple of these companies have very, very deep pipelines. we're seeing between lilly and novo the depth of their pipeline is continuing to evolve. we're seize phase 1 to phase 3 trials that will only enhance what they're already able to do. whether on the side effect profile, the duration of effect, or to your point on the cost one of the most important features of this is there are a multitude of ways costs will come down for the system it's not only in the shape of competitors that come into the market you're dealing with a do you

o - do duopoly. >> we don't think the best money has been made in a novos or lillys >> not necessarily i think we'll be looking at specific drug outcome trials whether or not these drugs continue to impact the long-term effect of patients' health we've seen it in specific studies and the continuation of those studies and the depth of those responses is going to be something that can continue to lift these companies and maintain the earnings potential. >> last time you were here we talked about the prospect for rate cuts and how beneficial that would be to some of the smaller biotech companies that rely on borrowing money for their r&d and everything else they do. now that we got 50 basis point, and we consider the same trend what does that mean? >> same view there's the idea of hard and soft landing whether or not biotech's duration is going to hold it up

from the sector that is able to feel the benefit of this cut to that degree. we are, in particular, very positive on biotech based on the fundamentals in the outcome. as dollars flow into the system, whether through secondaries, new ipos, new investors, all of that is positive to lift the sector for us and what we do, it is the fundamentals driving the change and where we think biotech can shine going forward. >> let's talk about a couple of names i have on my list. imvt that's the ticker for wherever - >> immunovan. >> tell me about it. >> it has what a like to call a pipeline of products when you look at specific companies, what has been so effective, what is effective for pharma and grown them over the course of their history is finding a phenomenal new target or new application and being able to use that for a multitude of different diseases. we've seen this with drugs like

dupixent what we have understand so far is new target called the fcrn pathway can touch a multitude of different diseases in particular there's 23 that we have basically sourced and understood could be utilized if this company continues, immunovant has the success they've had in early indications, it could be a multibillion dollar opportunity, something with long duration and massive impact to patients in these rare diseases. >> dnli, denali. >> they are exciting there's something very unique to diseases that impact the brain neuromuscular, neurodegenerative diseases historically we've had a problem reaching the brain denali proposes and shown they can do in clinical testing is

pass through the blood/brain barrier to touch the brain in a way we have been unail to touch. what they have been able to show historically and we believe they can over the next 12 months is incredibly exciting and dramatic. >> appreciate you being here once again. >> absolutely. >> michelle ross. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. seema mody is standing by with that. >> china's rate cut fueling hopes of an economic rebound we'll tell you which stocks are making the biggest move on that cut coming up.

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i'm there. get started investing for as little as $1. talk about easier investing. about 15 before the closing bell back to seema mody for a look at key stocks. >> those chinese stimulus measures fueling a rally in companies with china exposure. starting with wymn resorts, shares up 5% on the day. hopes of a recovery in chinese spending is sending a number of travel stocks higher with cruise line royal caribbean, hotel operators like marriott which has a significant presence there, and booking holdings among online travel operators with international exposure up about 2% economists are now betting further intervention from beijing. some larger cap chinese names, alibaba, jd.com, electric vehicle companies are rebounding strongly today nio up 10% we'll see if it lasts. >> yes, we will.

still ahead, nvidia shares are popping today. we'll run you through you what is driving the bounce. back on "the bell" after this break. i grew up with my grandparents most of my childhood and my grandmother was obsessed with beauty. she would hold beauty parties. i just learned the power of doing self-care together with other women and how amazing that feels. i had brought that into my company at the beginning it's not something that's boring that we have to do but that we all enjoy this aspect of self-care and taking care of ourselves that makes us feel good

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for now the "closing bell" market zone. seema mody joins us what's behind the big pop steve kovach with kb home's numbers after closing. bob pisani to break down the crucial moments. bob, to you first. consumer confidence was not good at all and yet we're kind of hanging in >> yeah. we had a great little rally going at the open. partly thanks to china thank you for the stimulus over there. that really helped and then we lost 20 points on the consumer numbers we were expecting 103. this was the biggest one-month drop since august 2021 two things big focus on jobs and a little less focus on inflation, but still there. this tells me two things one, number one, a lot of

consumers are still rather concerned and negative on the economy and in jobs. that tells me that, number one number two, it tells me the market reaction still doesn't believe the jobs hard landing story. two stories here >> discretionary stocks, did you see those today? >> yeah, yeah. >> they're up. >> yeah. partly due to china. partly due to china. but i think it's very good sign that the market kind of read through this very, very quickly. in other words, certain number of consumers do have concerns about the job market right now but the market, the stock market itself is not planning on hard concerns they have right now so, what absolutely this tells me is what matters for stocks in the fourth quarter, the number one issue is the jobs data is there going to be a bigger drawdown in the jobs market. some people think there is the stock market doesn't seem to believe that right now that's the number one issue for me number two, how much more is the fed going to cut and are we going to get clarity in the months ahead after that there are issues around the election. you're right, scott, you look at

the new highs. i see littered with big industrials. caterpillar, cummins, jp, parker - >> freeport because of china all roads on this day seem to lead back to china. >> with good reason. given the amount they consume in terms of materials, given the amount of copper they consume globally, they'll move immediately. we also saw luxury goods move significantly. we saw commodity moves significantly. this reminds us about how important china is in the global economy and even how it can move our stock market on a day when we had not great piece of economic news. >> you said estee lauder, 6% to your point, luxury goods. seema mody, tell us what's behind nvidia today. that stock's having a good day, up 4%. >> a couple of things happening. we have nvidia ceo jensen huang,

nvidia's largest individual shareholder. owning about 4% of the company's stock. separately ubs intelligence out with a new a.i. note today they believe that semiconductors like nvidia, broadcom and tsmc remain the biggest beneficiaries of big tech's robust spend on artificial intelligence. we sort of already knew that but we think that trend continues. just looking at the price action nvidia up 13% from that dip earlier this month the average wall street target on nvidia, $148. i would point out, shares are trading at $120 and change >> appreciate that real quick to you, bob semis have not traded well of late that's one area of concerns in this market. >> we'll see micron could change that that's going to be out on wednesday. of course, that's in a very specific space, the memory space. not necessarily the same space nvidia works in. just the fact we've had this dip in semis and the market is sitting at new highs shows you

the rally, the rotation that goes on. some days we see consumer stocks -- consumer staples do better, health care and defensive. tech tends to rise you get this beautiful rotation going on on a -- semis is down but that's not an awful chart. that's consolidation to me that's side ways from the last month or two. steve kovach, we're looking ahead to kb in ot. >> earnings are coming after the bell the big thing so watch is commentary from kb homes about the fed's rate cut last week and how that's expected to affect housing demand last week home builder lennar said it's expecting more affordable mortgage rates to drive demand and focus on sales incentives at kb which can eat into margins though that could fade as mortgage rates fall xl there's numbers in about 15 minutes or so.

scott? >> thank you very much we'll look ahead to that as we approach the close for anything positive today for the dow and the s&p is going to be a new closing high for each. >> and so the big next data point is going to be the pce i think we're getting it on friday we had 2.6% year over year last month. this is core ce and that is the fed's key gauge here we're expecting 0.2% month over month. i don't expect inflation numbers to be surprising i am -- again, as i said, i'm more concerned with perception and jobs and the directions of jobs fourth quarter that will be the number one issue for the stock market before is the job market going you answer that question, i think you can answer a lot about where we can end up at the end of the year. >> you've been watching yields since the fed made its move? >> it's amazing to me that we are looking at yields in the 4% and high 3% range for some

treasuries, and yet the market is still incredibly sticky people love short term treasury. we'll talk about that. >> thank you about 100 points or so on the dow. new closing high manufactured a pretty good day given everything that hit us in terms of consumer confidence we'll see you tomorrow that's the end of regulation citizens financial group ringing the bell at s&p. the dow and s&p 500 setting record closes today. even as soft consumer confidence data weighs on the minds of investors. nasdaq outperforming getting a boost. that is the scorecard on wall street the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell: overtime." i'm morgan brennan along with jon fortt who joins us from washington >> coming up on today's show