tv Fast Money CNBC September 24, 2024 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
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jon, micron , latest test in thi move we've seen in chips >> morgan, i'm just glad to hear that james cameron felt the same way i did about a.i. in "romulus." >> record highs for the s&p and the dow. hurry home >> i will, indeed. that's going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq market site in the heart of new york city's times square, this is "fast money. here's what's on tap tonight beijing big shot china trying to jolt their ailing economy by cutting rates and announcing a broad set of stimulus measures will this jump start a chinese stock and reduce the rally at home. plus, bashed by bernie, senator sanders hammering the ceo of novo nordisk, telling him to, quote, stop ripping us off was this just the usual capitol hill grandstanding we'll have a live report. and later, the details on
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why the justice department is suing visa spotify surging as tiktok says no mas to music streaming, and the options action on micron i'm melissa lee, coming to you live from studio b at the nasdaq on the desk tonight -- tim seymour, karen finerman dan nathan, and guy adami. and we start off with two big stories dominating the market today novo nordisk's ceo getting grilled on capitol hill, and china's moves to stimulus the country's struggling economy we start with china. the large cap etf soaring today, its best day in 2 1/2 years. shares jumping today, after the pboc announced a slate of measures from cutting the amount of cash banks need to keep on hand to reducing lending rates to get consumer spending again but it wasn't just china-based companies on the move. casino stocks, luxury retailers, and commodity names, all of which get a significant portion of revenue overseas, getting a pop, as well
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was this the all-clear to go all-in on the emerging market? tim, what is your take on this. >> well, china has a lot of structural issues, and this doesn't change them, and, in fact, when you have a debt, call it a cancer of sorts, it really needs to take some time to clear through it they've kind of cut it out it's a dynamic, where if you listen to the pboc, they talked about, this needs to be supports with fiscal policy it's just interesting, when you do, up you know, loans for shar which is what you hear about in emerging markets, you used to hear about this in russia, when they gave away their most valuable companies, they are lending companies to buy stakes in the market. it just seems to me, a lot of what has gone wrong in the market are the things the government themselves could have fixed, and it's not about insenting people by shares so, i'll get off the soap box for a little bit, but it really was a bonanza, and they shot from four, five different angles that i think are all important, both to support real estate, to
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support bank lending and the underlying market. what we said about -- think about the conversations over the last three weeks to a month. it's been around commodity copper has been a roller coaster ride all these things are well bid. you have the casinos, which traded one-third of the value they did pre-covid all because of macao so, there's a lo central banks around the world cutting, and china stimulating, that's a good sign for that trade. >> we talk about fxi in february, i remember it, we said, it traded down to levels where it held in october of 2022, double bottom trade that was against a cascade of people saying china was uninvestable that's proven to be correct. alibaba's had four years of extraordinarily disappointing stock action, but along the way, at least seven or eight times, it's had 35% to 50% peak, basically trough to peak rallies, and i think we're on
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the verge of that again. and i think alibaba is still a buy here i think one of the main reasons gold had a day that it had today is on the back of everything just tim said, so, i don't know what it means for our equity markets here, but specific sectors and commodities, it makes a lot of sense >> i don't know what to make about it, either i think about tarp remember tarp sn and the reaction to tarphand, iu look at what happened during the pandemic, when the fed came out with the bazooka and we will buy everything, anything, we'll buy etfs, debt, junk, and they didn't need to buy anything, the market started to correct itself so, i don't know which of these could potentially be the course that chinese equities are on, but i do think -- i agree with guy that -- it could have more legs than this i know it's been happening already for a couple of months, these stocks seemed to have bottomed out a couple of months ago, but i think there was a lot
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of money on the sidelines. i've not invested in awhile, probably not going to jump in here >> just recently, you had a number of banks cutting their growth forecast for china and a lot of banks saying that china is not the place you want to be equity-wise, but the distinction you made between tarp and what happened during the pandemic is very applicable here, because it is not a direct handout. so, the transmission mechanism is more roundabout it's not a direct check. china can't afford to create a welfare state. that's just not feasible so, what are they doing? all these other measures so, can this actually be transmilted to the consumer in an effective way, so they will actually go and spend, which is what all these stocks are moving on that notion that this will get consumers to spend but the property issue is the problem here, and that's not necessarily fixed at this moment >> whoa. i mean -- shut it down yeah, i think it's interesting that the outperformance came from consumer names.
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so, if you look at jd, baba, you look at pdd, i mean -- so, they've been so unloved, right people have this narrative about the chinese consumer, we know it's property-based in a lot of ways we also know that the companies, when the chinese government came after them in 2021 and 2022, it was like a self-own, right so, i just -- i do think the outperformance is interesting. you know, at the end of the day, weave seen lots of fits and starts, to guy's point, about alibaba. this might be more of a market dynamic than it is an economic dynamic. when i was reading these headlines early in the morning, it felt like these were things to support the markets they know there's very little they can do right now that's going to help the economy, right? it's just, you know, there's so many countries that have worked or moved away from them from a manufacturing standpoint and the like we know their high end consumer is really weak -- it's not even their high end consumer, it was that middle market consumer, and we've had example after example over the last six to nine months
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or so. so, to me, yeah, have a ball right here, just seems like this got a squeeze going, it might have, to tim's point, gotten some investors outside of china, like, it might have said, okay, we forgotten about this trade al altogether, but i'd be surprised if it has crazy legs >> if you have a commodity investor, you love this news i think commodities have said recession everywhere, especially in china so, you actually want to see higher ppi coming out of china, for sure if you have a dynamic, you look at the material stocks today, we're talking about cat piller, southern copper, john deere, and i think that's part of the trade. back to, what does this mean for, say, an ulta, for ans est lauder -- >> estee lauder -- >> which is also the e in my blicep >> and obviously, the b in blicep is alibaba. it was an em heavy trade
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and i think -- but back to -- >> smiling there >> yeah, ell, occasionally, yo know i mean, it was before i actually saw the performance of that acronym. it's a case where the consumer dynamic we've talked about, especially the aspirational buyer of high-end spirits, handbags, these are things that we've heard from companies i don't think this changes anything about the apple china story, this is kind of obvious, but let's be clear about what it doesn't do it doesn't change the story for nike in china, it doesn't necessarily change the story for those companies, even a starbucks in china i think there are dynamics there that aren't going to change. can you stay in this trade, i think alibaba is a name you want to own for many years. if you want to trade this around, it's been proven you can trade it you can sit back and look at more than a third of the market cap in cash, you can look at the international growth, which is north of 40% this isn't really even an economic story, but i think it is one that obviously benefits -- if they're sending a message, buy our stocks, buy their best stocks. buy ten cent buy baba
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>> b is also the b in dan's zebra trade. >> nice job. good for you good for you >> look at that. >> guy >> freeport-mcmoran, there's a reason why the stock went up $3.50 today. the copper trade, which was all the rage earlier this year, then fell on difficult times. i think will start to reaccelerate and wynn, which you mentioned, that is a textbook, i think, bearish to bullish reversal in terms of what we've seen over the last few months. so, yeah, this has legs to it, but it goes back to central banks run amuck once again and what wins to that? gold does. it's just one more reason to be bullish of gold in this environment. now let's get to know vor nor nicing the ceo testifying on capitol hill, getting grilled over the price of ozempic and wegovy amid soaring demand the stock closing more than a percent higher angelica peebles is here with me >> hey, melissa.
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yeah, novo nordisk's ceo dodging questions about why wegovy and ozempic cost more in the united states than in the uk. the ceo said you can't compare across countries, and the real u.s. prices are much lower, since novo pays so many rebates to pbms. senators agreeing with novo that pbms are just part of the problem, but sanders revealing today that the lee largest pbms in the u.s. that lowering the list price of ozempic and wegovy would lead to more coverage of glp-1s sanders asking him if he's ready to lower the list price. >> when i heard statements that pbms would accept a low list price product, it needs to go all the way to patients, so, it means that they talk about insurance companies being their clients, it's actually their owners, so, it needs to get to
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insurance schemes, and it needs to get to the patients >> so, we'll see if they can reach an agreement here. melissa? >> all right, angelica, thank you. angelica peebles in washington let's get more from jared holz jared, great to have you with us does -- does jorgenson have a point? if the pbms agree to do that, would the problem be solved? >> melissa, thank you for having me i don't really think so. this is a problem that we see across health care, across pharmaceuticals, where we've got higher prices in the u.s., much lower prices internationally there are so many reasons for it obviously, the investment that the companies put in has been massive. the health care systems in europe and otherwise are extremely different and the complexities around what we're facing with the pbms and the supply chain and all these different payer systems makes it untenable, i think, to do something very simplistic, that
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i think senator sanders and others want. so i think to be determined, but i think -- it's pretty complicated. >> why do you think lilly was not called to the hill >> well, i would be kind of surprised if they were not called at some point when i just look at the numbers, you know, wegovy and ozempic are already annualizing at $25 billion, and wegovy's been on the market for a little bit longer than zepbound has, if we just compare the obesity medications. so, if this is just a numbers game, and sanders and others are looking at the dollars that have been generated, novo, i guess, has more of a target on it than lilly, but it's probably an eventual situation for lilly to come here, too >> jared, we've seen some of these stocks, lilly and novo, sort of roll over for other reasons over the last couple weeks. i think it's a function of competition, maybe valuation, but there's some other plays sort of, i don't know, under
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the -- under the radar screen plays that are out there that we've talked about is m&a going to be a theme here? names like viking, we talked to people at summit all different names. does that make sense in this environment? >> i think so. i mean, it just comes down to the future investment that you would need to make as a pharmaceutical company not already in obesity or without an obesity pipeline i mean, to miss out on this market opportunity, i think, is nearly unforgivable. we're talking about the biggest therapeutic category in all of pharma and bio tech within a couple of years from now, so, i think eventually you'll see it pharma may want to wait for all these different data sets to come out and for the kind of competitive landscape to play out, i mean, how many times are we going to go through datasets that move stocks by 20%, 30%, even the large cap names have moved extremely -- in extreme
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volatile ways on the back of data so, it might just be a wait and seep, see how the data sets play out and then make a move my sense is, it's just a little bit too early on one hand, and then, just the constant investment needed for manufacturing is the second big consideration here >> jared, tough weekend for your brownies, i'm sorry. i'll tell you, what does this circus in washington do for you and analysts as you look at the valuation of these stocks? i want to understand if this is an opportunity for investors, because, again, the reality, these prices are not going to change here for the hottest drugs on the market. >> yeah, i agree i mean, we've been through this so many different times with various senate committees looking at the industry, whether it's insurance companies, pbms, pharma, pricing, you know, i -- part of me thought that with the i.r.a. and the government going
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afar ma and -- after pharma and negotiating prices for drugs that you get at the pharmacy chains or that need to be administered in a doctor's office, this would kind of start to go away, and for whatever reason, it's not i just think it's a perennial headache that we as a health care investor base, or community, have to deal with, and i don't think it's going to -- anything's going to change over the near term, at least, and now with the election coming up, you know, various new implementations or strategies that we're not really privy to, it's kind of we just have to manage through on a yearly basis. and with respect to the browns, it's been, you know, the saddest i can remember >> jared, it's karen, thanks for being on, despite the weekend for you. can you -- i really don't understand when or how the mechanism of the government being able to negotiate for these drugs would happen do you foresee that in the intermediate term? >> well, i doubt anything
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happens soon, and with respect to novo nordisk, they're already on record by saying that they think ozempic or semaglutide, the main ingredient in these drugs, is going to be on the next list of drug prices that we get in the first quarter of next year so, we're already assuming a big -- a pretty big price cut for these products in 2027, which is not that far away so, can the government implement some sort of, you know, negotiation between now and then they only have 24 months to do it, so, i think the odds are very, very low, and we're looking at a 2027 into 2028 price negotiation where, you know, the -- the economics of the drug are going to change a lot anyway, so -- i would doubt it that's why i'm kind of surprised at the whole, you know, notion of this hearing anyway, because by the time we get to some sort of accord, this is going to be negotiated by way of the i.r.a.
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anyhow >> congress is not really known for efficiency jared, great to see you, thank you. >> thank you >> jared holz of mizuho. so, novo nordisk is down 9% this month, so, is this an opportunity, do you think? >> well, what i thought was really interesting, when you listen about the pbms and the transmission mechanism from the makers to the consumers, like, three of these names, i think it's express ship, cvs/caremark and optum-rx, it's like 80% of the market the way the drugs get passed onto consumers in europe, it's different. so, roll those guys up to the hill >> that's v123, to answer the novo question, that's just sort of line in the sand, which, you know, what it gives you something to trade against i don't think they report until early november, i don't know if that's a catalyst or not, but that's a level i would trade from the long side
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>> lilly at the end of october here >> lilly's outperformed novo, too, so, maybe that's their alzheimer's portfolio, maybe it is, again, the diversity i still think these are names that are going to trade ahead of the pack as much as i also own some of the, call it the -- not even second tier, they're the la laggards, j&j, pfizer, bristol myers. i think that rotation is happening and will continue to. coming up, pain in the payment space, as the justice department takes aim at visa what regulators are accusing the company of, and what it could mean for shares, that's next. and the clock striking midnight for tiktok music. pulling the plug on one of its features more on that when "fast money" returns. this is "fast money" with melissa lee, right here on cnbc.
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arguing this effects not just the price of one thing, but the price of nearly everything, attorney general merrick garland explained why the justice department has filed this civil anti-trust lawsuit earlier today. >> visa is a mon nop list on the debit transaction markets, and it is violating federal anti-trust law and infleicting harm on american consumers and businesses >> y >> now, the complaint says visa presents other firms from innovating new solutions the government says that more than 60% of debit transactions in the u.s. run on visa's network, which allows the company to charge more than $7 billion in processing fees every year visa's general council reacting this afternoon with a statement, saying, in part, when businesses and consumers choose visa, it is because of our secure and reliable network, world class fraud protection, and the value we provide we are proud of the payments
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network we have built. the innovation we advance, and the economic opportunity we enable this lawsuit is meritless, and we will defend ourselves vigorously now, garland declined to speculate today able possible remedies or the fixing for this alleged illegal behavior that question really won't be resolved until a much later stage of this lawsuit, melissa back over to you >> eamon, thank you. karen, what do you make of this? >> well -- this has been the way it's been for a long, long time. and i feel like they've sort of gone after them multiple times over the years, and then there was some change there. i was sort of wondering, what does this do for the capital one/discover deal? i mean, i think of them as more credit than debit cards, but i think to have a very viable competitor would be -- i don't know why that would be counter to, you know, functioning markets, so -- that's sort of
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interesting to me, but i feel like -- these guys are so entrenched, it's really going to be very difficult to do a giant change >> yeah, i mean, i can't imagine what the remedy would be >> when you think about a debit card -- we haven't used a debit card, probably any of us, in a very long time the people that use them, they don't have credit, right so, it's a lower income american so, why do they have all these crap fees on them? this is like -- we've been critical of a lot of doj/ftc stuff, coming after things that have been going on for a long time the big tech stuff, they're just not going to be able to break it up but this is the sort of stuff should make sense to do this and it is a duopoly and these guys have the shares they're going to do whatever they want. and it's really affecting lower income americans >> fair. you know who you want to go after? didn't the federal reserve just lower interest rates last week >> 50 basis points >> 5-0, right? >> you know what the average rate on a credit card in the united states is >> 23.6% >> i think that's a little
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excessive. maybe focus on that. i hear what dan's say, but real problem is the rates the banks are charging number two, in terms of the stock, it's problematic we just traded right back up to a prior all-time high and are selling off, and people will start to look, i think, a little more close -- closely at valuation. i -- these are still amazing companies, but now they're in the cross hairs. >> the credit car companies charging 20% plus are going to say, we need to offset in order to offer credit to people who -- >> right absolutely >> otherwise have no credit. >> it does make you think of affirm, who is looking to do something -- >> no fees >> exactly >> well, and more broadly, it was an interesting day for anyone that had exposure to consumer credit. and i don't think it was necessarily attached to this headline, but i think it was a day where we're reminded that longer rates have gone higher, every day since the fed cut rates, and it's a dynamic also where we're reminded of what that consumer overhang is. back to the stocks, i don't
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think this does anything and i think this just comes out -- the origination of this particular action was from their attempt to acquire plaid, and ultimately, that showed that they were going to really take out all their competition, i don't think plaid was all the competition, doesn't do anything to the stock. coming up, tiktok changing its tune, pulling the plug on its music business but it's nothing but music to some competitor's ears. and we're watching shares of kb home, sharply lower after reporting results. why one activist saying the fed's rate cut could kick offal housing boom you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.
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welcome back to "fast money. stocks higher again today. the dow and s&p 500 notching fresh record closes. the nasdaq posting the biggest gains, up more than half a percent. tiktok pulling the plug on its music streaming business byte dance saying it will shut down the service in november tiktok music was available in indonesia and brazil, and was being beta tested in other countries, but hadn't made it yet to the u.s shares of spotify getting a boost from that news the stock more than doubling this year, now trading at an all-time high. and a new entry announced to the s&p 500, a private company,
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amentum, will replace bath and body works, which is down slightly d dan, you're watching spotify >> yeah, i think it probably has little to do with tiktok, i don't think anyone knew they had a streaming thing, but you think about, they have 65 million premium subscribers here in the u.s., they just put through some price increases on every one of their tiers, i think it was announced in june. if you look at the gross margins for this company, they've gone from the low 20s up to 30% expected next year, so, when you have those sorts of price increases, we've seen this in netflix for years, it's just pure margin. so, i think it's being rerated. coming up, shares of kb home in the afterhours on the move. and sticking with real estate, is there a cre commercial real estate boom on the horizon. how the recent fed cuts could be pushing the sector out of a hurricane. all that when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on kb home. shares tumbling after the home builder announced mixed results with net orders coming in flat, demand softening during the summer months. the conference call is under way. steve kovach has more on this. steve? >> hey there, melissa. kb home shares are falling on its mixed results from the home builder. eps was the miss here, $2.04, street wanted $2.06. revenue just a tiny beat, $1.75 billion against $1.73 billion. and some details within those numbers here, home deliveries, they are up 8% year over year, to a little over 3,600, and the average selling price of homes are up 3% to nearly $481,000 some comments from the ceo in the release here on mortgage rates. he said demand is softening late june through july, but improved in august, as rates came down. as said demand is strengthening in the current fourth quarter. the call is happening now, guys, they just got to q&a, but
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nothing said so far moving the stock from when the results first came out, down nearly 6%, mel. >> all right, steve, thank you steve kovach so, a lot of puts and takes here in that, steve outlined the misses, but the strength, the guidance for the current quarter seems optimistic so far. >> so far. but let's try to connect some dots the average selling price is a little less than half a million dollars, which is half of some of the other home builders, so, this suggests obviously a different client base. so, i look at this, i say, all right, the first sort of signs that things are slowing down are going to man any fest themselves in this space. it makes a lot of sense. this has been a hockey stick to the upside in terms of the stock performance. but this, i think we'll look back on this quarter and say that was the inflection, i think, for the housing trade >> how about a home depot or a lowe's oppenheimer came out today, said, lower mortgage rates should be an axel rant, but it's going to take some time and maybe the stocks have moved too much in anticipation of that boost. >> i tell you what, i think --
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they've been somewhat range bound, they've had a nice run with interest rate sensitives, and the entire market, but i think the -- if you listen to where the comps were on a home depot, those weren't good numbers, so, in fact, they pretty much guided that 25 was going to be tough. i think there's room for that to be improved upon and the sensitivity is getting there that next cut, people are going to be out shopping again. he's the activist known for awarding a hurricane, but now that storm may be about to blow out to see, thanks to fed rate cuts jonathan litt is founder and cio of land and buildings. great to have you back >> thank you for having me >> the fed starting to cut, all the problems are solved in the space? >> just on the home builders, if i could take a stab. >> yeah. >> the problem has been existing home sales have been very low, and so, home builter builders winning. if existing home sales start picking up, that could be a challenge for the home builders,
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who have elevated levels of new construction that's something we're worried about. >> in terms of how you think about that, rates would have to come down significantly enough for existing homeowners to put their homes on the market. it's not just going to go from six plus to five plus and they're going to be, okay, we're off, list me >> the dot plot is, what, 5.5 to 3, and that's what it's been we just started, and talk about this commercial real estate, it's game on the buyers, there's a palpable sense and shift the past few weeks from private real estate folks and public companies, they're back they got great financing, they're accelerating their transaction volumes, i think homeowners that have been waiting and staying longer than they wanted, they might be selling, as well, and that might be coming on the market and deal with the mortgage and they've gotten accustomed to it, so, we're cautious on the home builders not that you're asking about that >> just sounds like this could be a short in the making here
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for you. >> we're monitoring it >> all right, for commercial real estate now, where do you see the best improvement >> right, so, game on, right acquisitions are going to ramp, and they're going to ramp aggressively financing costs, we're seeing companies financing in the fours again. this is the lowest we've seen in a couple of years. and the big winner is going to be the brokers cbre, real estate broker commercial properties and we think they're going to beat nicely on earnings next year the street is still assuming subdued transaction volumes next year i think cbre is really well positioned as a broker, sort of getting in the middle of it. i think other companies, a data center reit, demand is growing exponentially. we don't see that stopping cheap's growing 10%, still off of its highs we think they're really well positioned money, we were at the b of a conference a week and a half ago, they said the reit etf has two times the demand of any
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other etf in the b of a system so, people are looking at this and they're saying, it's time to own the reit >> so, it's nice to hear money's coming in, but it sounds to me like sovereign funds aren't right now ready to put a lot of money, that's not true the big money center banks aren't really going to -- don't seem to want to be upping their commercial real estate exposure right now. where is the money coming from >> sovereign wealth fund is different from the banks the banks are probably slow to start the lending again. the pry vault lenders and really the unsecured debt market, the public companies have huge advantage, because they can finance easily in the public markets at the lowest rates. so, they're going to have access to public and private -- sorry, public equity and public debt, so, they're going to be the first ones but the blackstones and starwards of the world, they're going to be having access to the debt, they already have the equity capital that's been
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committed, they've been unable to put it out. so, they're going to be coming in, as well as many other real estate private equity firms, and many of those commitments are from the sovereign win wealth f. >> in terms of the cycle of this commercial real estate trade, i say this somewhat tongue in cheek, but jerome powell and the fed are certainly the most important guys in any room, in almost any market, but hour about the hr managers and the c-suite at amazon and google and the guys calling people back to work the trend here getting back to office space is real and it's very different than it was even a year and a half ago. is that at all playing into the demand side of the trade >> so, you know, there's a lot of rhetoric around who is coming back to the office and the executives want everybody back, and it's hard to know, from talking to folks, how many people are actually back we use cell phone data and track how many phones are in the building that's a reasonably good sign of how many people -- it's not really moving. nationwide and it's not moving in new york. and so we're not seeing it yet
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the private real estate executives i met with a few weeks ago said the worst is yet to come for new york they said it's -- yeah, more people back in the ffice, a little bit more activity on leasing, but the capital markets are a disaster you can't get loans, assets aren'tclearing, and there's going to be a lot more pain in the new york market. which, you know, i agree, it feels like more people are back in the office, but the problem is real lily the financing side, and when you have a 20% vacancy rate, it takes a long time to get pricing power. >> just quickly on the cell phone data, you are using it in the context the last time you were on with a short on alexandria so, where are you on that position now >> alexandria has underperformed reits by about 20% since we first came on to talk about it we're monitoring the data, it's not changing and what's happened since we started talking about it, the street is seeing the weakness in demand for lab space, and we've had three, four downgrades, which, as you know, most of the
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street sits at home and buys, so, the downgrades are significant. earnings estimates are coming down, and i think this is going to be a long play. this womn't reverse course quickly. may jort marketjor markets are challenging for companies that own lab space. >> you're still short. yes. okay jonathan, great to see you, thank you. >> great, thank you. >> we were just talking about sort of a.i. plays, right, in terms of energy, but data center has been one for awhile, too >> 100%. jonathan's spot on with this one, it's been flat lining, if you look, for the majority of this year. it was just downgraded, i think, at citi, to a neutral, so -- this is the right call because some of these other names have actually sort of had huge moves to the upside and a lot of analysts are behind the curve. it's not -- i don't think you can sort of lump them all in the same simon proper tips has been unbelievable sl green off the map are feels like it's going to
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roll over again. >> he mentioned data center here, the stock is up 10% on the year it had a huge move from $700 to nearly $900. it's a really expensive stock. it's not growing that aggressively if you think about this and the secular trend of what's going on with generative a.i., it's not really participating right now, and it runs the risk they've overbuilt capacity in the near term >> if it's game on for commercial real estate, at least in the markets that are improving, and that was an important caveat, it sounds like it's game on for regional banks. if you think at least a lot of the overhang and you can't judge them all, but it's why maybe an etf, a re, is a place to invest, because they're also getting the benefit of the fed dynamic that we've seen. that outperformance even to the money center banks since last wednesday, but with this backdrop, they're still below that svb level, and i think that's interesting. coming up, the amazon of latin america. how argentina's mercado libre is leading the commerce space.
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welcome back to "fast money. e-commerce company mercado libre has been trouncing amazon in the last couple of weeks the stock up 65%, compared to about 50% for amazon kate rooney spoke with the ceo this week and has more on this maybe under the radar tech play. actually, tim has owned it in the past, kate, but tell us about your conversation. >> yeah, not a name we really talk about every day, mel, but mercado libre has been emerging as a top pick on wall street as investors look for more opportunities outside of the mag seven, for example, in tech. it has been outperforming megacap tech lately.
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it's up 64% in the past year, versus about 50% for amazon. 30% or so for the s&p. wall street is overwhelmingly bullish on that name roughly 90% of analysts now have a buy rating margin expansion has been one of the big drivers and reasons for optimism this is a $100 billion company it dominating in south america, makes up at this point roughly half of online sales there, that's according to e-marketer the provider of payments, and the other side of the business the ceo telling me that despite some of the volatile till over the years, there's still a lot of growth to be found. >> when you look at the penetration of e-commerce in latin america, it's still quite low, compared to the u.s. or europe or asia when you look at the penetration of financial services in the region, roughly half of the population is unbanked, or under banked, so, it's an enormous opportunity for us
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>> they are not the only ones seeing opportunity amazon and shein have an eye on mexico, but he believes they can keep that moat, despite the new competition. mel? >> kate, thank you tim? >> it's always been an exciting story. it's always had a huge multiple. it's always been the amazon of latin america. in brazil, i think they are somewhere, you know, some of tt the -- if you look at the consumer middle class in these places, it's really exciting the margin is fantastic. as you extend it into credit and banking, new bank is a name that trades on the nasdaq, it's a name i'm long. it gives you that exposure to this growing kind of credit profile, but also the emerging middle class >> doubling the distribution centers from 10 to 21 basically by 2025. 42 times is expensiexpensive, bt ridiculously expensive when you look at the foothold they have if you look at the stock, say, $2,100, on price tag, it is, but
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valuation, not so much >> all right coming up, micron headlining earnings, still to come this week, and options traders are expecting a big move the setup, and how one trader is playing it playing it that's coming up next.now, it's jeep? probably the same way you know if a t-rex is chasing a jeep wrangler... is getting away. yep! or if it takes you places that make you say, woah. and their hair looks like this. or and what it always will be. because when you're an original, there's only one. it's time to grow your business. create a website. how? godaddy. coding... nah. but all that writing... nope. ai, done, built. let's get to work. create a beautiful website in minutes with godaddy.
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welcome back to "fast money. micron set to report earnings after the bell tomorrow. the chip maker up 11% this year, but has fallen 40% from june highs. one options trader is betting the name is due for a big bounce in tomorrow's results. mike khouw has the action for us mike >> yeah, so, my ron right now, the options market is implying a move of 9% higher or lower by the end of the week, after they report earnings. that's more than it's moved over the last eight reported quarters the most active contract were the weekly 100 calls, where 12,500 of those traegdding i should say that actually this is not the only chip that was seeing a lot of bullish flow today. five of the top ten most active calls were in the chips, and the smh semiconductor etf saw a lot of bullish activity, as well >> dan, what are you thinking for my ron >> the stock has come back so much since the frenzy, a few
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months ago here, so, it's a hard press on the short side. not going to take too much from a guidance standpoint to get this thing going they got the revenue growth back going again, but again, if there's overcapacity in the space, it might show up in this guidance for the current quarter. >> round trip, the entire move from this year basically 85 to 150 or so, back to 85, i mean, the setup, i think, is the best it's been in awhile. on the long side, but man, this is one of those names where, you know, they say one thing wrong and we've seen 10%, 15% moves to the downside given the choice between the two, i'd rather play it on the long side. >> what does this do for the rest of the chip trade, in terms of setting the tone? >> i don't think it does anything again, i think -- and in terms of what they say or don't say, i think they've said a lot that's been a.i. friendly and ramped the share price. so, i would be very cautious about what they say. and i still think, though that the semis trade overall is one that's -- it's been sideways, but my ron's not setting the tone for the rest of that group.
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>> yeah. agree, but i think the setup isn't bad. you're talking about, i mean, it's down -- over $40, and so i think -- i think it sets up sort of decently. >> yeah, just really quickly, mike said there's buying of the 100 calls, weekly, the stock closed at $94, implied move is 9% you need to break even, you need more than half the implied move, so, this is a tough one here you have to think there's going to be a massive squeeze to be buying those calls >> mike, i don't mean to put you on the spot if i do, but nvidia had an interesting ramp sort of midday today, and did you notice anything interest going on with that name? >> yeah, well, nvidia was actually the top of the list i mentioned that five of the top ten most active, you know, call options in single stocks were the chips and nvidia was number one. we also saw a lot of flow, though, i should say, in, you know, names that don't necessarily have a lock on the market i mean, beaten up intel was in the mix, we saw amd and broadcom, and actually micron
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time for the final trade let's go around the horn timothy? >> yeah, big series in atlanta for the metropolitans. regional banks looking interesting here, yeah >> yeah. >> karen >> big series for the new york liberty, also. if we see more home sales, whirlpool, big dividend. >> interesting dan? >> yeah, i think we fade the rally in crew oil over the last week and a half or so. you can use the uso to do so >> guy >> yeah, not a big series this
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the bronx, as we've locked things up. that's what it is to be a yankee fan, tim clf. >> how it goes >> cleveland cliffs. >> sorry, buddy. >> thank you for watching "fast money. on this tuesday. we'll see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. "mad money" my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hello, i am cramer, welcome to "mad money", and welcome to cramerica. my job is not just to entertain
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